CLASS LESSON PLAN
Class #14 – Baseline Forecasting Workshop
Overview:
This class session will provide an opportunity for student teams to work in a structured setting towards
completion of their Foresight Forecasts. Teams will be encouraged to make progress towards their final
deliverable, with instructor and TA support available during the session. Time for reporting out or
voicing specific challenges for team sharing and discussion may be integrated to provide additional
support and clarity for the teams.
Learning Objectives:
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Gain experience in the process of evidence-based forecasting by working directly to complete
the baseline forecasting phase of the foresight project
Key Terms and Concepts:
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Dependent Variable
Independent Variables
Evidence-Based Foresight
Baseline Forecasts
Extrapolating Trend Lines
Expected Future Scenarios
Class Preparation:
Readings: No readings for class. Conduct dataset research, identify appropriate data resources, and
build dataset for trend analysis and baseline forecasts.
Discussion Questions:
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What is your dependent variable?
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What are your independent variables?
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How will you model the data to project an expected future for your DV?
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What aspects remain uncertain?
© 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved. This document may not be duplicated, distributed
or excerpted without the University’s advance written consent.
INSTRUCTOR GUIDELINES
Discussion Questions with Answers:
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What is your dependent variable?
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What are your independent variables?
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How will you model the data to project an expected future for your DV?
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What aspects remain uncertain?
These are the essential questions the student teams need to explore and answer in order to
complete the baseline forecasting phase of the project. Each team project is unique – so the
instructor and TAs should work to assist the teams in identifying the data requirements, locating
the necessary data resources to build a suitable dataset, and work through the issues of modeling
to project the expected future of the dependent variable. Expect that one challenge will be the
need to work with imperfect data.
Class Timeline:
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5 Minutes – Quote of the Day and Intro
65 Minutes – Baseline Forecasting Workshop
5 Minutes – Wrap Up and Preview of Upcoming Class
Classroom Activities/Short Assignments:
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The class is a student workshop activity. Set up the workshop in the prior class and keep the
student teams on track towards completing the baseline forecasts and expected future scenario.
Notes and Perspectives:
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Teams should bring their computers and have access to their most recent spreadsheet containing
data from Class 13 – Finding Data.
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Show the students how to quickly extrapolate trend lines using Microsoft Excel
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Select Data
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From the INSERT Tab, select LINE to insert a line chart
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Click directly on the “line” shown on the line chart to highlight specific data points
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Right Mouse click and click ADD TRENDLINE
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Select the appropriate Trend/Regression Type (encourage teams to try different
ones to determine the “best fit”)
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Set the desired number of periods in the FORECAST – FORWARD field
© 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved. This document may not be duplicated, distributed
or excerpted without the University’s advance written consent.
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Teams should start to run correlations between variables
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Teams should start to develop comparative tables
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Teams should start to write the narrative to describe their Baseline Forecast (Expected Future)
© 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved. This document may not be duplicated, distributed
or excerpted without the University’s advance written consent.