economic brief
Deloitte Access Economics June quarter 2015
Unless stated otherwise, the following provides a
summary of Deloitte Access Economics' forecasts
published in its Business Outlook June quarter
2015 report.
Chart 1: Economic Growth
(year on year percentage change)
%
Northern Territory
7
6
Economic Growth Forecasts
NT
Aust
2014-15 (estimate)
3.9%
2.4%
2015-16 (forecast)
4.1%
2.6%
5 year average annual growth rate
(2014-15 to 2018-19)
4.1%
2.8%
5
4
3
Australia
2
Economic Growth
2014-15
The Territory economy is expected to grow by
3.9 per cent in 2014-15. Growth is expected to be
underpinned by private equipment, engineering and
commercial investment. This is expected to partly
offset by decrease in private housing investment and
an increase in imports.
The Territory is expected to have the highest
economic growth of all jurisdictions in 2014-15, which
range from 0.6 per cent in the Australian Capital
Territory to 2.9 per cent in New South Wales.
Nationally, the economy is expected to grow by
2.4 per cent in 2014-15.
Outlook
The outlook is for the Territory economy to grow by an
average of 4.1 per cent per annum over the five years
to 2018-19. This is the highest economic growth
forecasts of all jurisdictions, which range from
1.5 per cent in Tasmania to 3.6 per cent in
Queensland.
DAE forecasts the national economy to grow by an
average annual rate of 2.8 per cent over the period
2014-15 to 2018-19.
Deloitte Access Economics note that exports is
expected to replace the construction phase of
resource development as the key driver of Territory
economic growth over the medium term.
1
0
05
private consumption, which is forecast to increase
by an average of 3.9 per cent per annum over the
period.
15e
17f
19f
(year on year percenatage change)
%
14
12
10
8
Northern Territory
6
4
2
Australia
0
-2
05
07
09
11
13
15e
17f
19f
Year ended June
Source: Deloitte Access Economics Business Outlook,
Chart 3: Territory International Trade
(moving annual total, inflation adjusted)
$B
10

13
Chart 2: Private Consumption

private equipment investment, which is forecast to
increase by an average of 4.7 per cent per annum
over the next five years; and
11
Year ended June
12

09
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics and Deloitte Access Economics
Business Outlook
Territory economic growth over the next five years to
2018-19 is expected to be supported by:
international goods exports, which are forecast to
increase by an average of 13.8 per cent
per annum over the period;
07
Exports
8
Net Exports
6
4
Imports
2
0
-2
-4
05
07
09
11
13
15 e
17 f
Year ended June
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics and Deloitte Access Economics
Business Outlook
Economic Group │ Department of Treasury and Finance │ (08) 8999 6801 │ www.treasury.nt.gov.au │ economics.dtf@nt.gov.au
19 f
economic brief
Deloitte Access Economics June quarter 2015
Employment Forecasts
NT
Aust
2014-15 (estimate)
0.4%
1.4%
2015-16 (forecast)
2.2%
1.4%
5 year average growth rate
1.3%
1.4%
6
DAE expects Territory employment to increase by
0.4 per cent in 2014-15 and strengthen to 2.2 per cent
in 2015-16 (Chart 4).
5
Between 2014-15 and 2018-19, employment in the
Territory is forecast to grow on average by
1.3 per cent per annum. In other jurisdictions the five
year average annual employment growth forecast
ranges between 0.2 per cent in the
Australian Capital Territory and 2.1 per cent in
Western Australia.
DAE expects national employment to grow by an
average annual rate of 1.4 per cent per annum over
the next five years.
The Territory’s unemployment rate is forecast to
average 5.1 per cent over the five years to 2018-19,
compared to 6.1 per cent nationally. This is the
second lowest average annual unemployment rate of
all jurisdictions, which range from 4.7 per cent in the
Australian Capital Territory to 7.1 per cent in
South Australia.
Population Forecasts
NT
Aust
2014 -15 (estimate)
0.2%
1.4%
2015-16 (forecast)
0.2%
1.4%
5 year average growth rate
0.8%
1.4%
Chart 4: Employment Growth
(year on year percentage change)
%
7
Northern Territory
4
3
2
0
-1
-2
-3
05
2014-15 (estimate)
1.5%
1.6%
2015-16 (forecast)
2.2%
2.4%
5 year average growth rate
2.1%
2.4%
DAE expects the Darwin consumer price index (CPI)
to grow by 1.5 per cent in 2014-15 (Chart 6).
However, DAE forecasts Darwin CPI to grow by
2.8 per cent in 2016-17.
The five year average annual growth rate forecast for
Darwin CPI to 2018-19 is 2.1 per cent per annum,
marginally lower than the national average annual
increase of 2.4 per cent per annum.
13
15e
17f
19f
(year on year percentage change)
%
3.0
Northern Territory
2.5
2.0
Australia
1.5
0.5
Aust
11
Chart 5: Population Growth
Over the next five years, DAE is forecasting the
Territory's population to grow by an average annual
rate of 0.8 per cent, compared to an average of
1.4 per cent per annum nationally (Chart 5).
NT
09
Year ended June
1.0
Consumer Price Index Forecasts
07
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics and Deloitte Access Economics
Business Outlook
DAE estimates the Territory population will grow by
0.2 per cent per annum in 2014-15 and 2015-16.
The five year average annual population growth
forecast for the Territory is the second lowest of the
jurisdictions. In the other jurisdictions, average annual
population growth forecasts over the five years to
2018-19 range between 0.3 per cent per annum in
Tasmania and 1.8 per cent per annum in
Western Australia.
Australia
1
0.0
05
07
09
11
13
15e
17f
19f
Year ended June
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics and Deloitte Access Economics
Business Outlook
Chart 6: CPI Growth
(year on year percentage change)
%
5
Northern Territory
4
3
Australia
2
1
0
05
07
09
11
13
15e
17f
19f
Year ended June
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics and Deloitte Access Economics
Business Outlook
2
economic brief
Deloitte Access Economics June quarter 2015
Table 1: Deloitte Access Economics Business Outlook forecasts by jurisdiction, %
GDP/GSP growth
Private consumption
Population growth
Employment growth
Unemployment rate
CPI
Australia
2.4
2.6
1.4
1.4
6.1
1.6
NT
3.9
2.5
0.2
0.4
4.2
1.5
Year on year percentage change, 2014-15
NSW
Vic
Qld
SA
2.9
1.9
2.3
1.5
3.5
2.5
2.0
2.4
1.4
1.8
1.4
0.9
1.3
2.0
0.4
0.7
5.9
6.4
6.6
6.7
1.8
1.4
1.9
1.6
WA
2.4
1.1
1.6
2.4
5.3
1.9
Tas
1.5
3.1
0.3
3.2
6.9
1.3
ACT
0.6
0.5
1.2
-0.8
4.6
1.2
GDP/GSP growth
Private consumption
Population growth
Employment growth
Unemployment rate
CPI
2.6
3.0
1.4
1.4
6.2
2.4
4.1
4.4
0.2
2.2
5.2
2.2
Year on year percentage change 2015-16
2.6
1.9
4.5
0.8
2.9
3.4
3.4
2.6
1.3
1.7
1.4
0.8
1.7
1.6
1.4
0.6
6.1
6.1
6.4
7.6
2.5
2.4
2.4
2.5
3.0
2.7
1.7
1.3
5.6
2.5
1.5
1.8
0.3
0.6
7.2
2.7
0.2
1.9
1.2
0.1
4.6
2.3
GDP/GSP growth
Private consumption
Population growth
Employment growth
Unemployment rate
CPI
2.8
3.0
1.4
1.4
6.1
2.4
4.1
3.9
0.8
1.3
5.1
2.1
Five year average annual growth to 2018-19
2.6
2.4
3.6
1.7
3.1
3.2
3.1
2.6
1.3
1.7
1.4
0.9
1.4
1.5
1.3
0.7
6.0
6.0
6.3
7.1
2.5
2.3
2.4
2.3
3.1
2.9
1.8
2.1
5.6
2.4
1.5
1.9
0.3
0.9
7.0
2.3
1.9
2.3
1.2
0.2
4.7
2.2
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Deloitte Access Economics Business Outlook
Table 2: Deloitte Access Economics Business Outlook forecasts by jurisdiction, rank
Rank
GSP growth
Private consumption
Population growth
Employment growth
Unemployment rate
CPI
NT
1
4
8
7
1
4
NSW
2
1
3
4
4
6
2014-15
Vic
5
3
1
3
5
3
Qld
4
6
4
6
6
8
SA
6
5
6
5
7
5
WA
3
7
2
2
3
7
Tas
7
2
7
1
8
2
ACT
8
8
5
8
2
1
GSP growth
Private consumption
Population growth
Employment growth
Unemployment rate
CPI
2
1
8
1
2
1
4
4
4
2
5
6
2015-16
5
3
2
3
4
3
1
2
3
4
6
4
7
6
6
6
8
5
3
5
1
5
3
7
6
8
7
7
7
8
8
7
5
8
1
2
GSP growth
Private consumption
Population growth
Employment growth
Unemployment rate
CPI
1
1
7
4
2
1
Five year average annual growth to 2018-19
4
5
2
7
4
2
3
6
4
2
3
6
3
2
5
7
4
5
6
8
8
3
7
4
3
5
1
1
3
6
8
8
8
6
7
5
6
7
5
8
1
2
Source: Deloitte Access Economics Business Outlook
1 = Best, 8 = Worst
3
economic brief
Deloitte Access Economics June quarter 2015
Table 3: Deloitte Access Economics - Business Outlook – Forecasts
Northern Territory
Gross State product
Constant price ($m)
% change
Northern Territory as a share of Australian output %
Real final demand
Constant price ($m)
% change
Private consumption
Constant price ($m)
% change
Private housing investment
Constant price ($m)
% change
Private eng and comm investment
Constant price ($m)
% change
Private equipment investment
Constant price ($m)
% change
International exports
Constant price ($m)
% change
International imports
Constant price ($m)
% change
Retail turnover
Constant price ($m)
% change
Total population
Persons (’000s)
% change
Population aged 15 and over
Persons (’000s)
% change
Employment (’000s)
Persons (’000s)
% change
Unemployment
Persons (’000s)
Unemployment rate
%
Consumer Price Index
1989-90 = 100
% change
Average Weekly Earnings
$
% change
Wage Price Index
$
% change
Australia
Gross domestic product
International exports
International imports
Total population
Population aged 15 to 64
Employment (’000s)
Unemployment
Unemployment rate
Consumer Price Index
Average Weekly Earnings
Wage Price Index
2014-15
22 028
3.9
1.4%
31 472
10.3
9549
2.5
892
-7.4
10,146
21.9
1,417
36.6
6 567
10.2
4 458
32.4
2 976
-0.5
244
0.2
188
1.7
133
0.4
5.8
4.2
108.5
1.5
1242.83
2.1
121.43
2.7
2014-15
Constant price ($m)
% change
Constant price ($m)
% change
Constant price ($m)
% change
Persons (’000s)
% change
Persons (’000s)
% change
Persons (’000s)
% change
Persons (’000s)
%
1989-90 = 100
% change
$
% change
% change
2015-16
22 921
4.1
1.4%
30 721
-2.4
9969
4.4
752
-15.7
8,602
-15.2
1,723
21.6
6 694
1.9
4 166
-6.6
3 052
2.5
245
0.2
190
1.0
136
2.2
7.4
5.2
110.9
2.2
1290.88
3.9
124.50
2.5
2015-16
2016-17
23 805
3.9
1.4%
27 468
-10.6
10405
4.4
723
-3.9
4,720
-45.1
1,609
-6.6
9 097
35.9
3 985
-4.3
3 210
5.2
247
0.9
192
1.1
138
1.3
7.9
5.4
113.9
2.8
1326.63
2.8
127.68
2.6
2016-17
2017-18
24 925
4.7
1.4%
26 337
-4.1
10860
4.4
627
-13.3
3,621
-23.3
1,385
-13.9
10 809
18.8
4 294
7.8
3 274
2.0
250
1.3
195
1.5
140
1.5
8.0
5.4
116.3
2.1
1369.98
3.3
131.58
3.1
5 year
average
annual
2018-19 growth
25 914
4.0
4.1
1.5%
26 547
0.8
-1.4
11289
3.9
3.9
637
1.6
-7.9
3,378
-6.7
-16.5
1,304
-5.9
4.7
11 386
5.3
13.8
4 573
6.5
6.3
3 346
2.2
2.3
254
1.5
0.8
198
1.6
1.4
142
1.3
1.3
8.2
5.5
5.1
118.7
2.1
2.1
1417.55
3.5
3.1
135.88
3.3
2.8
2017-18
5 year
average
annual
2018-19 growth
# 1 595 940 1 637 247 1 688 421 1 739 137 1 786 787
2.4
2.6
3.1
3.0
2.7
#
285 312
301 294
321 729
338 637
354 004
8.0
5.6
6.8
5.3
4.5
#
255 061
250 113
249 110
259 255
270 541
1.9
-1.9
-0.4
4.1
4.4
#
23 680
24 008
24 350
24 706
25 074
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.5
1.5
#
19 189
19 489
19 765
20 048
20 343
1.7
1.6
1.4
1.4
1.5
#
11 657
11 824
11 974
12 152
12 340
1.4
1.4
1.3
1.5
1.5
#
760
778
779
782
784
6.1
6.2
6.1
6.0
6.0
#
106.7
109.4
112.5
115.3
118.1
1.6
2.4
2.8
2.5
2.5
#
1130.87
1157.73
1192.59
1232.17
1275.05
1.3
2.4
3.0
3.3
3.5
2.4
2.5
2.8
3.1
3.3
2.8
6.0
1.6
1.4
1.5
1.4
6.1
2.4
2.7
2.8
Source: Deloitte Access Economics Business Outlook
1. Base year 2012-13.
4
economic brief
Deloitte Access Economics June quarter 2015
Table 4: Deloitte Access Economics - Financial Outlook - Forecasts
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
3 year
3.0%
1.8%
2.6%
3.5%
3.8%
4.2%
5 year
3.4%
2.0%
2.9%
3.8%
4.0%
4.4%
10 year
4.1%
2.5%
3.3%
4.3%
4.4%
4.7%
6.0%
5.7%
4.9%
5.3%
5.7%
6.1%
90 days
2.7%
2.3%
2.1%
3.0%
3.4%
3.8%
180 days
2.7%
2.4%
2.1%
3.0%
3.4%
3.8%
70.5
0.918
92.9
0.680
68.5
0.867
95.8
0.694
63.4
0.764
81.6
0.597
63.7
0.773
84.1
0.596
63.5
0.772
82.8
0.585
62.4
0.759
80.3
0.554
Treasury bonds
Standard variable mortgage interest rate
Commercial bank bills:
Exchange rates
Trade weighted index
$US per $A
Yen per $A
Euro per $A
Crude oil prices
Crude oil (Tapis, $US/barrel)
% change
116.19
75.30
63.84
78.34
96.28
113.27
2.4%
-35.2%
-15.2%
22.7%
22.9%
3.6%
Source: Deloitte Access Economics Business Outlook
Although all due care has been exercised in the preparation of this material, no responsibility is accepted for any
errors or omission.
5