Forecast
Tourism Forecasting Committee
2013 Issue 1
Authors
Tourism Research Australia: Tim Quinn, Dr George Chen, Dr Ben Pang and Geoff Bailey
Other Contributors
Tourism Forecasting Committee, Tourism Forecasting Technical Committee and Industry Sources
ISBN 978-1-922106-76-6
Tourism Research Australia
Department of Resources, Energy and Tourism
GPO Box 1564
Canberra ACT 2601
ABN 46 252 861 927
Email: tourism.research@ret.gov.au
Web: www.tra.gov.au
Lake Argyle, Western Australia
Photographer: Evan Collis
Image courtesy of Tourism Western Australia
Publication date: April 2013
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Australia licence. To the
extent that copyright subsists in third party quotes and diagrams it remains with the
original owner and permission may be required to reuse the material.
This work should be attributed as Tourism Forecasting Committee, Forecast 2013 Issue 1, Tourism Research
Australia, Canberra.
Enquiries regarding the licence and any use of work by Tourism Research Australia are welcome at
tourism.research@ret.gov.au
ii
Contents
Background........................................................................................................................................................................ 1
Methodology ...................................................................................................................................................................... 2
Executive summary ........................................................................................................................................................... 5
Drivers of tourism forecasts ........................................................................................................................................... 10
Australian tourism performance .................................................................................................................................... 14
Domestic and outbound tourism forecasts................................................................................................................... 16
Inbound tourism forecasts ............................................................................................................................................. 19
Uncertainties and risks ................................................................................................................................................... 21
Asia-Pacific ...................................................................................................................................................................... 35
China ........................................................................................................................................................................ 35
Hong Kong ................................................................................................................................................................ 37
India .......................................................................................................................................................................... 39
Indonesia .................................................................................................................................................................. 41
Japan ........................................................................................................................................................................ 43
Malaysia.................................................................................................................................................................... 45
New Zealand............................................................................................................................................................. 47
Singapore ................................................................................................................................................................. 49
South Korea .............................................................................................................................................................. 51
Thailand .................................................................................................................................................................... 53
Rest of Asia .............................................................................................................................................................. 54
Europe .............................................................................................................................................................................. 55
France....................................................................................................................................................................... 55
Ireland ....................................................................................................................................................................... 56
Germany ................................................................................................................................................................... 57
United Kingdom ........................................................................................................................................................ 59
Rest of Europe .......................................................................................................................................................... 61
Canada ..................................................................................................................................................................... 62
United States ............................................................................................................................................................ 62
Other Markets .................................................................................................................................................................. 65
Middle East and North Africa .................................................................................................................................... 65
South Africa .......................................................................................................................................................... …66
Rest of the World ...................................................................................................................................................... 67
iii
Tables
Table 1
TFC forecast summary
8
Table 2
Domestic tourism
22
Table 3
Domestic visitor nights in hotels, motels, guesthouses and serviced apartments
23
Table 4
Short-term resident departures by market, financial year
24
Table 5
International visitor arrivals by market, financial year
25
Table 6
International visitor arrivals by purpose of visit, financial year
26
Table 7
International leisure visitor arrivals by market, financial year
27
Table 8
International visitor nights by market, financial year
28
Table 9 International visitor nights in hotels, motels, guesthouses & serviced apartments by
market, financial year
29
Table 10 International leisure visitor nights by market, financial year
30
Table 11 International leisure visitor nights in hotels, motels, guesthouses & serviced
apartments by market, financial year
31
Table 12 Real Total Inbound Tourism Expenditure by market, financial year
32
Table 13 Inbound leisure tourism expenditure by market, financial year
33
Table 14 International visitor arrivals: China
36
Table 15 International visitor arrivals: Hong Kong
38
Table 16 International visitor arrivals: India
40
Table 17 International visitor arrivals: Indonesia
42
Table 18 International visitor arrivals: Japan
44
Table 19 International visitor arrivals: Malaysia
46
Table 20 International visitor arrivals: New Zealand
48
Table 21 International visitor arrivals: Singapore
50
Table 22 International visitor arrivals: South Korea
52
Table 23 International visitor arrivals: Thailand
53
Table 24 International visitor arrivals: Rest of Asia
54
iv
Table 25 International visitor arrivals: France
55
Table 26 International visitor arrivals: Ireland
56
Table 27 International visitor arrivals: Germany
58
Table 28 International visitor arrivals: United Kingdom
60
Table 29 International visitor arrivals: Rest of Europe
61
Table 30 International visitor arrivals: Canada
62
Table 31 International visitor arrivals: United States
64
Table 32 International visitor arrivals: Middle East and North Africa
65
Table 33 International visitor arrivals: South Africa
66
Table 34 International visitor arrivals: Rest of the World
67
Figures
Figure 1
Domestic visitor nights: history and forecast
17
Figure 2
Short term resident departures: history and forecast
18
Figure 3
International visitor arrivals: history and forecast
20
v
Background
Tourism Forecasting Committee (TFC)
The TFC was established in 2004 following the implementation of the Tourism White Paper. Like
its predecessor, the Tourism Forecasting Council, the TFC is an independent body charged with
providing present and potential tourism investors, industry and government with consensus
forecasts of activity across international, domestic and outbound tourism sectors. The resources
to run the TFC are provided by Tourism Research Australia (TRA).
Chaired by Bernard Salt (KPMG), the TFC's membership draws on the combined expertise of the
private and public sectors in the tourism and financial industries. The TFC is supported by a
technical committee that also has a mixture of private and public sector representation and
relevant experience to inform decision making.
The Tourism Forecasting Committee
Bernard Salt (Chair)
KPMG
Andrew McEvoy
Tourism Australia
Daniel Gschwind
Queensland Tourism Industry Council
Trent Zimmerman (Acting)
Tourism & Transport Forum
Ivan Colhoun
ANZ Bank
Helen Cox (Acting)
Department of Resources, Energy and Tourism
Felicia Mariani
Australian Tourism Export Council
Ian Hill
Australian Capital Tourism
Tony Webber
Webber Quantitative Consulting
Leo Jago
Tourism Research Australia
The Tourism Forecasting Committee Technical Committee
Leo Jago (Chair)
Tourism Research Australia
Adele Labine-Romain
Tourism & Transport Forum
Ernst Krolke
Airport Coordination Australia
Jeff Oughton
Economic Consultant
Karen Wales
Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels
Nell Anderson
Tourism Australia
Robert Boyd
Virgin Australia
Karen McGuigan
Department of Immigration and Citizenship
Tim Quinn
Tourism Research Australia
George Chen
Tourism Research Australia
Ben Pang
Tourism Research Australia
1
Methodology
Forecasting process
The TFC forecasts represent the most likely outcomes given past trends, current information and
the impact of policy and industry changes. Therefore, it is important to note that the TFC
produces ‘forecasts’ as distinct from ‘targets’ where the latter are developed for business planning
purposes and performance management. The TFC forecasts for domestic, outbound and inbound
travel volumes and expenditures are developed using an iterative process.
The first iteration involves the TRA Forecasting Unit estimating activity and expenditure using a
combination of econometric and time series models. These models provide forecasts based on
aviation capacity, price, income and seasonality as well as significant events affecting source
markets.
The second iteration involves a sub-committee (the TFC Technical Committee) made up of senior
researchers and economists as well as independent advisors reviewing the model-based
forecasts and applying qualitative adjustments.
The final iteration involves industry and government experts (the TFC) adjusting the forecasts by
consensus.
Methodological changes
TRA undertook a major methodological review of its National Visitor Survey (NVS) and
International Visitor Survey (IVS) in 2012. The review resulted in changes to many tourism region
boundaries and the reweighting of individual categories (notably education and employment). The
revisions led to the re-estimation of historical data on total expenditure (IVS and NVS combined)
and changes across inbound expenditure and domestic expenditure (mainly for business). The
methodological review also resulted in significant upward revisions to the base of domestic
volumes and expenditure.
During checking for the December 2012 NVS, TRA identified errors relating to June Quarter 2012
input data for domestic overnight travel supplied by the external NVS contractor. Correction of the
error has occurred and led to downward revisions for overnight trip, visitor night, and overnight
trip expenditure estimates for the year ending June and September 2012. These revisions
(for year-end periods) amount to around 2 per cent lower than originally published
(for the June quarter 2012, the revised estimates for the same key metrics are between
8 and 9 per cent lower than previously published). Day trip estimates were not affected. The data
revision has also contributed to the updating of domestic tourism forecasts in Forecast 2013,
Issue 1.
2
Forecasts purpose classification
The definition of 'holiday' travel for inbound and outbound forecast series was updated in
Forecast 2012, Issue 1. Previously, travel reported as 'other', 'transit' or 'not stated' were
included as components of holiday. Based on detailed analysis, travel reported as 'other' and
'transit' is now combined with education and employment in a broader 'other' purpose category,
while 'not stated' travel is included in inbound and outbound totals only (i.e. it is not categorised to
a specific purpose category such as ‘holiday’ or distributed across purpose categories). As a
result, inbound and outbound historical estimates and forecasts for 'holiday' (and leisure) in the
following editions of the forecasts will appear lower, and equivalent figures for 'other' travel will
appear higher than in previous forecast issues.
The definition of 'holiday' travel in the domestic forecast series has also been revised. In this
case, it has been extended to include nights spent away on long trips where the purpose of visit
to each stopover is not established. Previously, these visitor nights had been classified as 'other'
but examination has determined that this is predominantly holiday travel. As a result, historical
estimates and forecasts for 'holiday' in this edition of the forecasts will appear slightly higher and
those for 'other' slightly lower than in previous forecast issues.
Main data sources
Asia-Pacific Consensus Forecasts, March 2013 Issue, Consensus Economics Inc.
Australian Bureau of Statistics
-
Overseas Arrivals and Departures, February 2013 (ABS Cat. No. 3401.0)
-
Tourist Accommodation, December 2012 (ABS Cat. No. 8635.0)
Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics (BITRE)
-
Domestic airline activity January 2013
-
International airline activity 2011–12
Consensus Economics Inc., Consensus Forecasts, March 2013 Issue
Consensus Economics Inc., Foreign Exchange Consensus Forecasts, March 2013 Issue
Deloitte Access Economics (2012) Tourism and Hotel Market Outlook, Q4, 2012
Department of Resources, Energy and Tourism (2009) National Long-Term Tourism Strategy
Department of Immigration and Citizenship (2013), Overseas Arrivals and Departures
(unpublished)
International Air Transport Association (2013) Air Passenger Market Analysis, January 2013
Tourism Forecasting Committee (TFC), Forecast, various issues, Tourism Research Australia
3
Tourism Research Australia (TRA)
-
International Visitors in Australia: December 2012 Quarterly Results of the International
Visitor Survey
-
Travel by Australians – December 2012 Quarterly Results of the National Visitor Survey
-
State of the Industry, 2012
-
Tourism Investment Monitor, 2012
4
Executive summary
Despite the many downside risks to the world economic outlook, growth in the Asia-Pacific
economies continues to be faster than those of advanced economies. Adding to the positive note
are continuing signs of improvement in the prospects for the US economy, but the Euro zone debt
issue continues to cause concern and is driving declines in business and consumer confidence.
Reflecting these mixed prospects, economic growth forecasts have been revised down for many
advanced economies for 2013 since the last forecast issue released in October 2012.
The Australian economy provides mixed signals for the forecast horizon. Capital spending in the
resources sector is running close to trend but expectations are for this sector to soften and with
that, greater opportunity will open up in other parts of the economy. Unemployment is increasing
despite rising retail spending; domestic tourism expenditure continues to grow as Australians
travel at home more than in recent years.
Along with cautious consumers, rising unemployment, global economic concerns, an associated
correction in the Australian share market, and a looming election are likely factors that may limit
growth.
After a period of solid growth in recent years in the aviation sector, activity in the global air travel
market has accelerated in recent quarters. As a result, inbound capacity to Australia has been
revised up for both 2012–13 and 2013–14.
On domestic accommodation, supply has remained relatively flat but as demand has risen, so too
have yields which are expected to continue to rise in the medium term.
Against this backdrop, a number of revisions have been made resulting in a more positive story
for inbound and domestic tourism. Forecasts for outbound departures have been revised down
resulting in Australia’s net arrivals deficit reducing from the previously forecast 3.4 million in
2021–22 to 2.3 million in the current forecast.
5
Key messages (refer Table 1)
Total Domestic Tourism Expenditure (TDTE)1 and Total Inbound Tourism Expenditure (TITE) will
grow at different speeds in the short term…

With strong growth in domestic day travel and assumed resilience in overnight travel,
Total Domestic Tourism Expenditure (which captures expenditure from each of these
segments) is forecast to increase by 2.5 per cent to $71 billion in 2012–13, and by a further
1.4 per cent to $72 billion in 2013–14.

Total Domestic Tourism Expenditure is now expected to grow at an average annual rate of
1.1 per cent to $77 billion by 2021–22.

Total Inbound Tourism Expenditure is expected to increase 5.4 per cent to $29 billion in
2012–13, and then by 5.9 per cent to $30 billion in 2013–14.

Total Inbound Tourism Expenditure is forecast to grow at an average annual rate of
3.8 per cent, to $40 billion by 2021–22.

Total tourism expenditure is forecast to increase by 3.3 per cent to $99 billion in 2012–13,
and then by a further 2.7 per cent to $102 billion in 2013–14.

Total tourism expenditure is forecast to grow by an average annual rate of 1.9 per cent to
$116 billion by 2021–22.
Domestic visitor nights to grow moderately in the short and medium term…

Domestic visitor nights are forecast to increase by 2.5 per cent to 285 million in 2012–13,
and then by a further 1.2 per cent to 289 million in 2013–14.

This represents an upward revision from previously forecast growth of 2.1 per cent for
2012-13, but a slight downward revision from the previously forecast 1.4 per cent for
2013-14. The upward adjustment to the forecast for 2012–13 is associated with the
stronger-than-expected growth for the business and holiday segments for the July to
December 2012 period.

The long-term growth has also been revised up from 0.8 per cent to 1.0 per cent.
Domestic visitor nights are now forecast to reach 307 million by 2021–22.
1
The measures of total tourism expenditure, total domestic expenditure and total inbound expenditure are presented in real terms in
this publication. As a result, all historical estimates and forecasts to 2021–22 are shown in December 2012 dollars. To enable
comparison of growth rates, forecasts from Forecast 2012, Issue 1 have been adjusted to report on a financial year basis.
6
Outbound resident departures to slow down in the near future…

Australian resident outbound departures are forecast to grow by 4.1 per cent to 8.4 million in
2012–13, and then by a further 4.7 per cent to 8.8 million in 2013–14. These levels are
lower than previously forecast, largely due to lower-than-expected historical departures
(compared to the previous forecast) and observed changes in the outbound travelling
behaviour.

The long-term outlook for outbound travel is for average annual growth of 2.9 per cent with
departures reaching 10.7 million by 2021–22.
Inbound arrivals to gain more momentum in coming years…

Inbound visitor arrivals are forecast to increase 4.6 per cent to reach 6.3 million in 2012–13,
and then by a further 4.2 per cent to 6.5 million in 2013–14 (up from the 2.3 per cent and
3.7 per cent growth previously expected).

The upward revisions are largely due to an increase in air capacity expected from the
Asia-Pacific region, and partly due to higher expectations of economic growth for 2013 and
2014 in some of the Asia-Pacific countries including China.

Markets expected to drive growth in 2012–13 and 2013–14 are China (up 15.9 per cent and
10.4 per cent respectively), Malaysia (up 13.9 per cent and 9.1 per cent), Singapore
(up 12.5 per cent and 4.8 per cent) and India (up 7.5 per cent and 7.6 per cent).

Upward revisions in 2012–13, for both the United States (from 1.5 per cent to 4.9 per cent)
and New Zealand (from 0.6 per cent to 1.6 per cent) are a result of both the higher-thanexpected arrival figures in the first half of 2011–12 and a continuing recovery for both source
economies.

By purpose, Visiting Friends and Relatives (VFR), Holiday, Other and Business travel are
projected to grow 6.5 per cent, 5.4 per cent, 2.4 per cent and 2.2 per cent respectively in
2012–13, and then by a further 3.9 per cent, 4.5 per cent, 5.0 per cent and 3.9 per cent
respectively in 2013-14.

Strong growth from Asia is expected to be particularly important to the performance of the
inbound tourism sector in the short and longer term. By 2021–22, Asia's share of inbound
arrivals is expected to increase from 42 per cent in 2011–12 to 46 per cent.

The long-term outlook has been upgraded with an average annual growth rate of
3.5 per cent. The forecasts show that 8.4 million arrivals are expected by 2021–22.
7
Table 1
TFC forecast summary
Inbound Change on Domestic Change on Outbound Change on
visitor
previous
visitor
previous
depart.
previous
arrivals
year
nights
year
year
'000
per cent
million
per cent
'000
per cent
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22
Compound annual
growth rate (%)
2001/02-2006/07
2006/07-2011/12
2011/12-2016/17
2016/17-2021/22
2001/02-2011/12
2011/12-2021/22
5
4
4
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
6
6
6
7
7
7
7
7
8
8
a
TITE Change on
(real)
previous
year
$billion
per cent
b
TDTE Change on
(real)
previous
year
$billion
per cent
c
Expenditure Change on
(real)
previous
year
$billion
per cent
031
768
656
057
408
484
641
629
541
692
907
981
257
517
779
032
271
496
725
959
198
441
n.a.
- 5.2
- 2.4
8.6
6.9
1.4
2.9
- 0.2
- 1.6
2.7
3.8
1.2
4.6
4.2
4.0
3.7
3.4
3.1
3.1
3.0
3.0
3.0
291.6
288.7
302.3
295.9
289.7
280.4
289.1
285.5
263.4
264.3
266.2
278.3
285.2
288.6
291.4
293.9
296.2
298.4
300.7
302.9
305.2
307.4
n.a.
- 1.0
4.7
- 2.1
- 2.1
- 3.2
3.1
- 1.3
- 7.7
0.3
0.7
4.5
2.5
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.8
3 577
3 368
3 293
3 937
4 591
4 835
5 127
5 699
5 843
6 770
7 443
8 037
8 367
8 760
9 090
9 341
9 569
9 803
10 033
10 265
10 502
10 745
n.a.
- 5.9
- 2.2
19.5
16.6
5.3
6.0
11.2
2.5
15.9
9.9
8.0
4.1
4.7
3.8
2.8
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.3
2.3
2.3
29.1
28.1
26.3
26.1
26.1
27.1
27.7
29.1
29.8
27.2
27.4
27.2
28.7
30.3
31.6
32.8
34.0
35.0
36.1
37.1
38.4
39.5
n.a.
- 3.4
- 6.5
- 0.4
- 0.2
4.0
2.1
4.9
2.4
- 8.5
0.8
- 0.8
5.4
5.8
4.2
3.8
3.5
3.0
3.1
2.8
3.4
3.1
70.4
67.4
69.5
66.0
65.2
66.8
69.4
70.4
66.2
66.8
64.5
68.7
70.5
71.5
72.2
72.9
73.6
74.2
74.8
75.5
76.1
76.8
n.a.
- 4.2
3.0
- 5.1
- 1.2
2.6
3.9
1.4
- 6.0
0.9
- 3.5
6.6
2.5
1.4
1.1
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
99.5
95.5
95.7
92.1
91.3
94.0
97.1
99.5
95.9
94.0
91.9
95.9
99.1
101.8
103.8
105.7
107.5
109.2
110.9
112.6
114.5
116.4
n.a.
- 4.0
0.2
- 3.8
- 0.9
3.0
3.4
2.4
- 3.5
- 2.0
- 2.2
4.4
3.3
2.7
2.0
1.8
1.7
1.5
1.6
1.5
1.7
1.6
3.4
1.2
4.0
3.0
-
0.0
-0.8
1.3
0.7
-
8.8
9.4
3.6
2.3
-
-0.3
-0.4
4.6
3.1
-
0.6
-0.2
1.4
0.9
-
0.3
-0.3
2.3
1.6
-
2.3
3.5
-
-0.4
1.0
-
9.1
2.9
-
-0.3
3.8
-
0.2
1.1
-
0.0
1.9
-
Numbers shaded are forecasts
Total Inbound Tourism Expenditure (TITE) including prepaid international airfare and package (real, Base = Q4 2012)
b
Total Domestic Tourism Expenditure (TDTE) including the expenditure in domestic day trip and overnight trip (real base = Quarter 4 2012)
a
c
Expenditure refers to total expenditure made in Australia by international short-term visitor arrivals and Australian resident tourists. It is the sum of real TITE and real TDTE
(Q4 2012=100)
8
9
Drivers of tourism forecasts
The global economic outlook
Latest macroeconomic forecasts expect the world economy to grow by 2.5 per cent in 2013
before picking up to 3.2 per cent in 2014, which is slightly lower than previously forecast. World
economic growth is being largely driven by emerging economies like China and India and being
assisted by the continuing economic recovery in the United States. Sentiment toward these
economies has improved, but there is increased downside risk with Europe.
In the Asia-Pacific region, there have been minor upward revisions to the growth expected for
China, Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand for 2013, while downward revisions have been made to
India and South Korea. The minor upward revision to China reflects the recent expansionary
policy moves by the People’s Bank of China and some measures introduced by the Chinese
government to stimulate the slowed economy. The political environment on the Korean Peninsula
is likely to impact on travel in the short term.
The Japanese economy is forecast to grow at a rate higher than the long-run average, both in the
short and medium term, partly due to recent expansionary policy moves by the Bank of Japan.
While the economy appears to have shown signs of recovery following the 2011 earthquake and
tsunami, risks continue to surround this market.
Despite the increasing pressure of fiscal consolidation, there continue to be signs of improvement
for the United States. Its short-term economic outlook has improved as consumer and business
confidence, and job and house markets are now in better shape than six months ago, partly due
to the Federal Reserve’s continuing expansionary monetary policy.
In Europe, however, the Euro zone sovereign debt crisis continues to haunt the global financial
markets and impacts European economies, including the larger economies—such as Germany
and France—resulting in substantial growth markdowns for 2013. The most recent debt crisis in
Cyprus indicates that there will not be permanent solutions in the short term. The Euro zone
economy is forecast to contract 0.3 per cent in 2013 before a likely pick-up to 1.0 per cent in
2014.
The short-term economic outlook for the United Kingdom has continued to deteriorate, with
economic growth forecasts revised down from the previously forecast 1.4 per cent growth to now
0.9 per cent growth in 2013. Continuing weakness in the medium term growth outlook has
prompted ratings agencies to downgrade its domestic and foreign-currency government bond
ratings and highlights the increasing challenges to the United Kingdom government’s fiscal
consolidation efforts. The strengthened fiscal consolidation will tend to have a dampening effect
on domestic demand and household incomes, leading to a reduction in consumers’ discretionary
expenditure on overseas travel.
Reflecting the above-mentioned world economic outlook, it is expected that most growth in
inbound tourism demand to Australia in 2012–13 and 2013–14 will continue to come from the
Asia-Pacific region and North America. In contrast, near-term prospects for visitor arrivals from
Europe remain pessimistic with a higher degree of risk attached, compared to forecasts contained
in Forecast 2012, Issue 2.
10
Australia's economic outlook
The Australian economy is highly exposed to the headwinds of the global economy. Despite this,
economic prospects remain solid compared with those of many developed economies. A range of
indicators suggest that the Australian economy is running close to trend led by large increases in
capital spending in the resources sector. However, with investment in resources assessed as
near its peak, the Reserve Bank of Australia anticipates greater opportunity for demand to build in
other parts of the economy in the period ahead.
For Australian households (and businesses) there have now been six successive cuts in official
interest rates since November 2011. Signs are now emerging that this easing in interest rates has
had desired outcomes. Demand for a range of consumer items is improving; house prices are
starting to rise; dwelling construction is increasing; and local financial markets are picking up. A
marked improvement in consumer sentiment—up 9.9 per cent—in February and March 2013 is a
promising sign for domestic tourism, but a rising unemployment rate, global concerns, an
associated correction in the share market, and a looming election are likely behind April’s
5.1 per cent fall in consumer sentiment. Of particular note was the fall in ‘time to buy a major
household item’ (down 7.6 per cent).
While these forecasts expect modest growth in private consumption, constrained public spending
and a continued softening in the labour market are expected in the period ahead. This
environment is likely to have a constraining effect on big-ticket tourism expenditure such as
outbound, with the domestic tourism sector benefiting.
Australia’s terms of trade remain much higher than their long-term average. The Australian dollar
has also remained high, currently trading at US$1.04. This continues to be a factor in the weaker
performance of key trade (currency) exposed industries in the Australian economy such as
tourism. The Australian dollar is expected to hold at around US$1.04, depreciating to US$0.99
over the period to 2015.
Outlook for aviation demand and capacity
According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), after a period of solid growth in
recent years, growth in global air travel accelerated from late-2012. Between October 2012 and
January 2013, revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs), a key indicator of demand, increased
9.0 per cent—well above the 5.0 per cent growth recorded throughout 2012. Around half of this
growth was driven by Asia-Pacific airlines with passenger demand up 5.2 per cent in 2012 and up
3.0 per cent in January 2013. In contrast, air passenger demand in Europe remains weak, up
2.1 per cent in January 2013, despite an increase of 5.3 per cent in 2012. Demand for air travel in
North America increased 1.9 per cent in 2012 and 1.5 per cent in January 2013.
IATA forecast that global demand will remain strong in 2013 (up 5.4 per cent), underpinned by
improving global business confidence, strong economic growth across the Asia-Pacific region,
and an improving US economy. IATA has also raised its profit forecasts for the global airline
industry, with the combined net post-tax profit margin forecast up 1.6 per cent from the previously
forecast 1.3 per cent for 2013. However, ongoing debt issues and subsequent dampening to
economic growth are likely to see continued muted growth in the Euro zone aviation capacity.
In line with the continuing improvement in the global air travel market, especially robust
passenger travel demand from emerging markets, seat capacity to Australia is expected to grow
solidly over the next two years. After increasing 3.6 per cent in 2011–12, total inbound capacity
growth is expected to increase 6.7 per cent in 2012–13 and then 6.0 per cent in 2013–14—higher
11
than its trend growth of 5.2 per cent. In the medium and long term, aviation capacity is expected
to increase at an average annual rate of 3.9 per cent, which is lower than trend. Contributing to
the short and medium-term expansion are new capacities created by airlines in emerging
markets. In particular, Chinese airlines are now flying on new routes between Australia and
China’s ‘second-tier’ cities such as Chengdu, Nanjing and Hainan. However, these opportunities
could be restrained by limited capacities in major capital cities.
Similar to the global pattern, future growth in Australia’s inbound aviation capacity is expected to
be primarily sourced from Asia-Pacific markets, while direct capacity from Europe is likely to
continue to contract—a trend that has emerged since the middle of the last decade.
Qantas’ restructuring of its international services is also instrumental to this transitional growth
pattern. Under the pressure of competition from Asian airlines, especially the low cost carriers
(LCC), Qantas is restructuring its European services and adopting an Asia-focused growth
strategy. According to this new strategy, Qantas’ European services are delinked from Asian
routes and flights are rescheduled with the timing to better suit the needs of Asian travellers in
Asian hubs including Singapore, Hong Kong and Bangkok. Furthermore, both Qantas and Virgin
Australia are strengthening their Asian links through partnerships with Asian airlines in various
forms including joint ventures with Asian airlines and code sharing on international flights.
Under these changed circumstances, seat capacities from Singapore, China, Malaysia and Japan
are expected to increase 30 per cent, 22 per cent, 21 per cent and 11.4 per cent respectively in
2012–13, and then 11.1 per cent, 6.1 per cent, 10.1 per cent and 6.1 per cent respectively in
2013–14.
In contrast, as a result of the new strategy, which in turn reflects the likely on-going weak
economic growth in Europe, direct inbound seat capacity from Europe to Australia is forecast to
decline. The direct air capacities between the United Kingdom and Australia are expected to
decrease 30 per cent in 2012–13 with a further decrease of 5.5 per cent in 2013–14.
However, the air traffic between Europe and Australia will be connected through the hubs in the
Middle East (Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Doha) and Asia (Hong Kong, Singapore and Bangkok).
Qantas and Emirates have formed a comprehensive alliance from April 2013, which included
Qantas re-routing some of its London services via Dubai. The alliance also included a code
sharing arrangement between Qantas and Emirates on their respective domestic and European
services, and reciprocal access to frequent flyer programs and lounges. Meanwhile, Etihad and
Virgin Australia’s comprehensive alliance has also improved access between Europe and
Australia.
With Qantas’ restructuring and partnership with Emirates Airlines and Virgin Australia’s alliance
with Etihad, growth in aviation capacity from the Middle East is expected to increase substantially
in the coming two years, up 15.6 per cent in 2012–13, and then 11.0 per cent in 2013–14. On the
other hand, growth in direct capacity from New Zealand—which accounted for 20 per cent of total
inbound aviation capacity in 2011–12—is likely to slow in 2012–13, partially reflecting the slower
domestic economic backdrop in New Zealand combined with the switching of trans-Tasman
capacity by Virgin Australia to other regions.
Seat capacity between the United States and Australia is expected to record a solid growth of 5.7
per cent in 2012–13, and then 4.0 per cent in 2013–14. This assumption is driven by the
improvement in consumer sentiment and continuing economic recovery, especially in the US job
market. Notable recent additions include additional services between Brisbane and Hawaii,
largely due to strong demand from outbound visitors from Australia.
12
On the domestic front, available seat kilometres—a key measure for domestic airline capacity—
rose by 9.9 per cent to 45 billion during July to December 2012, well above its five-year average
growth rate of 5.0 per cent. This growth reflects the ongoing strong competition on inter-city pairs,
combined with strong demand for aviation services in regional areas (servicing Fly-In/Fly-Out
workers). It is anticipated that this growth will continue through the second half of the financial
year, pushing up domestic aviation capacity by 11.2 per cent in 2012–13.
In 2013–14, domestic aviation capacity is expected to increase 6.3 per cent, higher than its
long-run average rate. This forecast is largely driven by major airlines competing for a larger
share in the domestic air travel market. In the medium to longer term, however, pressure for
higher profitability is more likely to force the two major domestic airlines to revert to a long-run
average growth rate of about 4.0 per cent.
Performance and outlook for tourist accommodation
Key supply and demand indicators for the year ending December 2012 (compared to the
year ending December 2011) showed that the demand for tourist accommodation in Australia
increased. The number of room nights occupied was up by 1.8 per cent to 55 million nights, and
takings from accommodation were up by 5.1 per cent in nominal terms to $9 billion.
The supply of tourist accommodation in Australia grew in the year ending December 2012
(compared to the same period in 2011) with the number of rooms available up 1.2 per cent
(or 2,700 rooms) to 229,300. Combining the results for supply and demand suggests that yields
per room night available increased by 2.3 per cent to $108 (in real terms).
Consistent with Deloitte Access Economics and Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels, TRA expects
room occupancy rates and room stock to increase by a modest 1.0 per cent per annum to 2016
for the ten major domestic markets.
13
Australian tourism performance
Solid growth in domestic travel
Underpinned by a strong December quarter, there was solid growth in domestic overnight trips,
visitor nights and overnight trip expenditure during 2012. In 2012, overnight trips increased
4.0 per cent to 75 million, visitor nights increased 4.0 per cent to 282 million, and overnight trip
expenditure rose 3.0 per cent to $50 billion.
In 2012, growth in domestic overnight travel was led by the Visiting Friends and Relatives (VFR)
sector while the Holiday and Business sectors also experienced modest increases.
Overnight trips for VFR were up 7.0 per cent, while visitor nights and overnight expenditure for
this purpose increased by 9.0 per cent and 15.0 per cent respectively over this period. In
comparison, Holiday trips were up 3.0 per cent and nights and expenditure grew by 1.0 per cent,
while for Business, growth was 1.0 per cent for overnight trips, 7.0 per cent for nights and
3.0 per cent for overnight trip expenditure.
Domestic day travel grew strongly in 2012 with trips up 8.0 per cent to 174 million and day trip
expenditure up 11.0 per cent to 18.2 billion. This was despite a soft December quarter in which
day trips fell 1.0 per cent to 41 million and day trip expenditure recorded growth of 2.0 per cent
(to $4.8 billion).
Growth in domestic day travel for the 2012 calendar year was led by Holiday and VFR travel. The
number of trips for Holiday and VFR increased by 10.1 per cent and 8.1 per cent respectively,
while day trip expenditure grew by 9.0 per cent (Holiday) and 8.4 per cent (VFR) in real terms.
Growth in Business day trips was more modest (3.1 per cent), but expenditure was up
18.9 per cent in 2012 year-on-year in real terms.
Moderate growth in outbound travel
Although there continues to be solid growth in the number of Australians travelling overseas, the
rate of increase for the outbound sector has continued to moderate. Overseas Arrival and
Departure (OAD) data indicate that Australians took 8.2 million overseas trips (up 4.9 per cent)
over the last 12 months ending February 2013—1.8 percentage points lower than its five-year
average of 6.7 per cent.
For the year ending September 2012, Australians aged 15 years or more spent 144 million nights
travelling overseas (up 5.0 per cent), with expenditure of $42 billion (up 3.0 per cent).
14
Solid growth in international visitors
Short-term international visitor arrivals increased by 5.0 per cent to 6.2 million over the 12 month
period ending February 20132, year-on-year. Arrivals from eight of Australia’s top ten inbound
markets were higher, led by China (up 18.7 per cent), Malaysia (up 12.2 per cent), Singapore
(up 11.3 per cent), Hong Kong (up 7.3 per cent), India (up 6.5 per cent), Japan (up 6.4 per cent),
the United States (up 5.8 per cent) and New Zealand (up 2.3 per cent). Visitors from the
United Kingdom and South Korea declined 3.0 per cent and 1.8 per cent respectively.
By purpose, over the last 12 months ending February 2013, VFR travel increased 6.3 per cent,
Holiday travel increased 6.2 per cent, Business travel increased 2.3 per cent and Employment
increased 5.6 per cent, while Education declined 2.5 per cent.
In 2012, visitor nights increased 5.9 per cent to 218 million while expenditure increased
2.2 per cent to $28 billion.
The figures are based on the data on “Overseas Arrivals and Departures” (OAD) monthly published by the Australian Bureau of
Statistics, which is slightly different from the historical data used in the TFC tourism forecasts. These data are sourced from the
Department of Immigration Citizenship unpublished data on overseas arrivals and departures.
2
15
Domestic and outbound tourism forecasts
Domestic tourism forecasts
Since the Global Financial Crisis, domestic travel has consistently shown signs of resilience in the
face of many challenges including the persistently higher Australian dollar, lower consumer
discretionary spending, and natural disasters, such as cyclones and floods. Overnight trips for the
first half of the 2012–13 financial year grew by 2.5 per cent, a rate stronger than previously
expected (with 2012–13 previous forecast set at 2.1 per cent).
Double digit growth in domestic air capacities in 2012–13 provides further support for sustained
domestic travel growth. In addition, marketing activities by government and industry, at various
levels and various forms, will provide a positive environment for the domestic sector.
It is anticipated that this momentum will continue throughout the rest of 2012–13 and the following
year. Domestic visitor nights are now forecast to increase by 2.5 per cent to 285 million in
2012-13, and then by a further 1.2 per cent to 289 million in 2013–143. This compares to the
previous forecast of 2.1 per cent for 2012–13 and 1.4 per cent for 2013–14 (refer Figure 1).
Apart from the higher-than-expected historical data, the upward revision of the forecast growth of
domestic visitor nights for 2012–13 is also attributed to six consecutive interest rate reductions
since late 2011, as well as the continued relatively low unemployment rate. By purpose, a more
optimistic short-term outlook for 2012-13 is largely due to stronger growth in business travel and
holiday travel than previously expected, and a shift away from outbound travel.
The longer-term outlook for domestic visitor nights is for growth of 1.0 per cent through to
2021-22. Domestic visitor nights are now expected to reach 307 million by 2021–22. This rate of
growth is approximates the ABS’ population growth projections.
While overall the short-term and, to a lesser extent, long-term prospects for domestic visitor
nights have improved, variability is still expected between different areas of Australia. These
differences will be examined in the TFC regional forecasts to be released within four weeks of this
publication.
3
TRA reissued the previously published NVS publications for June and September 2012, leading to downward revisions for
overnight trips, visitor nights, and overnight trips expenditure estimates for the year ending June and September 2012. The data
revision has also contributed to the updating of domestic tourism forecasts in this forecasting round.
16
Total Domestic Tourism Expenditure (TDTE)4 is forecast to increase by 2.5 per cent to $70 billion
in 2012–13, then by a further 1.4 per cent increase to $71 billion in 2013–14. In the longer term,
domestic tourism expenditure is expected to record an average annual growth of 1.1 per cent and
reach $77 billion by 2021–22.
Figure 1: Domestic tourism – history and forecast
Source: National Visitor Survey, 2012, Tourism Research Australia; Tourism Forecasting Committee Forecast 2013 Issue 1, Tourism
Research Australia
4
The measures of Total Tourism Expenditure, TDTE and TITE are presented in real terms in this publication. All historical estimates
and forecasts to 2021–22 for these measures are based on December 2012 dollars.
17
Outbound tourism forecasts
The forecast growth rate of outbound departures has been revised down to 4.1 per cent for
2012-13 and 4.7 per cent for 2013–14, from the previously forecast 6.9 per cent and 5.1 per cent
for each year (refer Figure 2). The value of the Australian dollar is expected to remain relatively
steady in the short term and continued expansion in aviation capacity to many key leisure
outbound markets is expected. However, while sentiment remains rosy, it is expected to weaken
as the 2013 Federal Election looms and with a rising unemployment rate, recent solid retail
growth is likely to dissipate leaving Australians more likely to consider domestic travel in a more
favourable light than compared to recent years.
The downward adjustment to outbound departures is partly attributed to observed changes in
outbound travelling behaviour, characterised by the perception that the Australian dollar will
continue at its current level. With this perception, Australian travellers tend to plan and spread
outbound departures over a longer period of time, with travellers’ choice being likely tilted towards
domestic travel in the short term. In the longer term, the average annual growth for outbound
resident departures is now expected to be 2.9 per cent with departures reaching 10.8 million by
2021–22.
Figure 2: Short-term resident departures – history and forecast
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics Overseas Arrivals and Departures, February 2013 (ABS Cat No 3401.0); Tourism Forecasting
Committee Forecast 2013, Issue 1, Tourism Research Australia
18
Inbound tourism forecasts
Inbound tourism forecast to grow modestly in short and medium term
As a result of higher than expected numbers for the first eight months of 2012–13, forecasts for
visitor arrivals have been revised up from the previously forecast growth 2.3 per cent and
3.7 per cent in 2012–13 and 2013-14 to 4.6 per cent and 4.2 per cent (to 6.3 million and
6.5 million, respectively).
In 2012–13, by purpose, VFR is expected to increase 6.5 per cent followed by Holiday, up
5.4 per cent while Other and Business travel are expected to increase 2.4 per cent and
2.2 per cent respectively.
Driving the upward revisions is an improved economic outlook for the Asia-Pacific region (where
42 per cent of Australia’s inbound arrivals are sourced) coupled with increased air capacity. The
Northeast Asian markets, North American and New Zealand markets are the major driving forces
behind this upward adjustment. Partially offsetting these gains are downward adjustments to
markets including the United Kingdom, South Korea and Indonesia.
China, Japan, Singapore and Malaysia have been revised up significantly. Inbound arrivals from
Asia are expected to increase by 8.7 per cent to 2.7 million in 2012–13, and by a further
6.5 per cent to 2.9 million in 2013–14. China is expected to provide around one fifth of total
growth in Total Tourism Expenditure (international and domestic).
Markets expected to experience strongest gains in visitor volumes in 2012–13 are
China (15.9 per cent), Malaysia (13.9 per cent), Singapore (12.5 per cent) and
India (7.5 per cent). By 2021–22, Asia's share of inbound arrivals is expected to increase from
42 per cent to 46 per cent. In contrast, combined inbound arrivals from elsewhere in the world are
expected to demonstrate modest growth (1.7 per cent in 2012–13 and then 2.3 per cent in
2013-14).
The forecast for arrivals from North America has been upgraded. Inbound arrivals from the
United States are forecast to grow 4.9 per cent and 3.1 per cent in 2012-13 and 2013-14
respectively (compared with the previously forecast 1.5 per cent in 2012-13 and 2.5 per cent in
2013-14).
Economic uncertainties in Europe remain the most significant downside risk to the forecast
inbound arrivals. The outlook for inbound arrivals from Europe is mixed. Arrivals from the
United Kingdom are forecast to decline by 2.0 per cent in 2012–13 before a likely increase to
1.3 per cent in 2013–14. When comparing revisions between forecast rounds, the United
Kingdom has been revised down marginally with arrivals not expected to return to 2010–11 levels
(632,000) until 2016-17. Arrivals from ‘Other Europe’ are forecast to record growth of 4.8 per cent
in 2012–13 and a further 2.8 per cent in 2013–14.
In the longer term, average annual growth of 3.5 per cent in inbound arrivals is expected to reach
8.4 million by 2021–22. Growth is expected to be supported by a recovering global economy,
19
depreciating Australian dollar, softening in outbound demand providing supply opportunities for
inbound arrivals, and increased investment in marketing activities by government
tourism-promotion agencies.
Total Inbound Tourism Expenditure (TITE)5 is forecast to increase by 5.4 per cent to $29 billion in
2012–13. Longer term, and compared to domestic expenditure, inbound expenditure is forecast
to grow at the faster average annual rate of 3.8 per cent to $40 billion in 2021–22 (compared to
1.1 per cent to $77 billion).
Figure 3: International visitor arrivals – history and forecast
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics Overseas Arrivals and Departures, February 2013 (ABS Cat No 3401.0); Tourism Forecasting
Committee Forecast 2013, Issue 1, Tourism Research Australia
5
The measures of Total Tourism Expenditure, TDTE and TITE are presented in real terms in this publication. As a result, all historical
estimates and forecasts to 2021–22 for these measures are shown in December 2012 dollars.
20
Uncertainties and risks
The Tourism Forecasting Committee Forecast 2013, Issue 1 is based on latest information
available to Tourism Research Australia’s Tourism Forecasting Unit (such as macroeconomic,
aviation, and accommodation forecasts as well as leading sentiment indices). As with all
industries (and forecasts), tourism forecasts are exposed to external shocks, therefore providing
risks that may drive both assumptions and tourism forecasts, either upward or downward.
The global economy remains fragile. Upside risks for a range of individual markets and Asia as a
region remain. However, the TFC is more optimistic regarding a possible economic recovery in
the United States, especially in housing and job markets. This could lift expectations of the US
economic growth, and any additional measures by the new Chinese leadership to further spur its
domestic economy could constitute a boon to higher world economic growth.
The short-term effects of the monetary easing that is occurring in Japan and the Euro zone could
be better and faster than expected, enhancing the chance of a more speedy recovery of the world
economy. In such a scenario, monetary policies in these countries or regions would tend to be
tightened up earlier than expected, resulting in appreciation of home currencies and a favourable
exchange rate of the Australian dollar against these currencies, benefiting Australian inbound
tourism. In such a case, upside risks are attached to the forecasts of inbound tourism but caution
is encouraged..
If any particular region was to be identified as posing significant risk to these forecasts, it is
Europe. The TFC notes that if sustained declines in volumes, or visitors, were to occur, a greater
effect on the value may be due to the likelihood of both lower average length of stay and lower
expenditure per day.
On the domestic economy, however, the risks centre around a cautious consumer sentiment,
which is likely to get worse as the September 2013 Federal Election looms. The possibility of an
improved global economy could result in higher demand for commodities, therefore driving up
prices and exerting further upward pressure on the Australian dollar. The wider economy should
benefit as such demand would trigger increased investment in the resources and energy sectors.
However, it is unclear whether household expenditure would increase. Due to the rising
unemployment rate the Reserve Bank may have some wriggle room to adjust rates.
With the delivery of the Boeing 787 (Dreamliner) in doubt and in-progress bilateral air agreements
being uncertain, downside risks could be attached to the forecasts. In particular, air capacitiesboth to and from Singapore and Malaysia are downside risks. Providing upside opportunities,
arrivals from India (especially travel for the VFR sector) would be significantly boosted if the direct
flights between India and Australia are resumed in 2013–14.
21
Table 2
Domestic tourism
Business
Holiday
VFR
a
Other
Visitor nights
Total
('000)
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22
Compound annual
growth rate (%)
Total
change
per cent
Overnight Trips
change
('000)
per cent
Day Trips
('000)
change
per cent
Overnight Trip
Day Trip
Expenditure Expenditure
$million
$million
b
TDTE
(real)
$million
TDTE
change
per cent
43 789
43 182
46 324
41 767
40 506
41 356
43 517
42 158
37 261
37 987
40 535
43 140
45 556
46 986
47 872
48 431
48 896
49 316
49 691
50 069
50 449
50 833
148 927
144 077
143 395
140 202
139 616
136 270
142 796
143 736
134 033
132 594
132 236
132 567
135 262
135 883
136 610
137 245
138 063
138 906
139 937
140 917
141 919
142 950
85 003
87 344
97 820
101 585
95 910
88 889
89 318
86 582
81 362
80 882
79 687
88 809
91 029
92 516
93 693
94 761
95 709
96 599
97 391
98 190
98 996
99 808
13 909
14 139
14 716
12 318
13 660
13 879
13 502
13 015
10 750
12 798
13 778
13 832
13 362
13 240
13 266
13 426
13 525
13 595
13 659
13 724
13 789
13 855
291 628
288 742
302 255
295 872
289 692
280 394
289 133
285 491
263 406
264 261
266 236
278 348
285 209
288 626
291 441
293 863
296 192
298 415
300 679
302 900
305 153
307 446
-1.0
4.7
-2.1
-2.1
-3.2
3.1
-1.3
-7.7
0.3
0.7
4.5
2.5
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.8
73 820
75 048
75 217
74 357
72 178
71 934
73 766
73 528
68 536
68 144
70 977
73 368
75 498
76 641
77 629
78 499
79 168
79 796
80 430
81 053
81 653
82 309
1.7
0.2
-1.1
-2.9
-0.3
2.5
-0.3
-6.8
-0.6
4.2
3.4
2.9
1.5
1.3
1.1
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.8
152 765
142 304
143 261
137 899
131 154
131 602
139 539
140 745
144 725
155 075
156 286
168 845
176 928
178 132
179 144
180 089
180 950
181 777
182 609
183 445
184 287
185 135
-6.8
0.7
-3.7
-4.9
0.3
6.0
0.9
2.8
7.2
0.8
8.0
4.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
52 991
51 959
53 744
51 001
50 685
51 607
53 074
54 042
49 737
49 634
48 646
50 843
51 784
52 623
53 315
53 909
54 494
55 063
55 647
56 224
56 800
57 403
17 444
15 486
15 739
14 960
14 481
15 241
16 375
16 357
16 436
17 151
15 815
17 899
18 671
18 833
18 913
18 994
19 059
19 126
19 187
19 252
19 340
19 429
70 435
67 445
69 482
65 961
65 166
66 849
69 449
70 398
66 173
66 786
64 461
68 742
70 454
71 455
72 228
72 903
73 553
74 189
74 834
75 476
76 141
76 832
-4.2
3.0
-5.1
-1.2
2.6
3.9
1.4
-6.0
0.9
-3.5
6.6
2.5
1.4
1.1
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
2001/02-2006/07
2006/07-2011/12
2011/12-2016/17
2016/17-2021/22
0.2
-0.2
2.5
0.8
-0.2
-1.5
0.8
0.7
0.4
-0.1
1.5
0.8
-0.9
0.5
-0.4
0.5
0.0
-0.8
1.3
0.7
-
-0.3
-0.1
1.5
0.8
-
-0.4
3.9
1.4
0.5
-
0.4
-0.9
1.4
1.0
1.1
1.8
1.3
0.4
0.6
-0.2
1.4
0.9
-
2001/02-2011/12
2011/12-2021/22
0.0
1.7
-0.8
0.8
0.2
1.2
-0.2
0.0
-0.4
1.0
-
-0.2
1.2
-
1.7
0.9
-
-0.2
1.2
1.5
0.8
0.2
1.1
-
a
b
Visiting friends and relatives
Total Domestic Tourism Expenditure (TDTE) including the expedniture in domestic day trip and overnight trip (real base = Quarter 4 2012)
22
Table 3
Domestic visitor nights in hotels, motels, guesthouses and serviced apartments
Business
Holiday
VFRa
Other
Total
change
HMGSAb
share
per cent
per cent
832
941
485
945
951
111
043
131
092
293
728
475
681
339
869
182
474
727
984
244
440
755
n.a.
0.1
4.6
-0.7
1.3
-3.5
2.5
2.6
-11.0
3.0
-0.8
1.0
2.9
2.1
1.9
1.6
1.6
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.4
1.5
26.3
26.6
26.6
27.0
27.9
27.9
27.7
28.8
27.7
28.5
28.1
27.1
27.2
27.5
27.7
28.0
28.2
28.4
28.6
28.8
29.0
29.2
Total
('000)
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22
Compound annual
growth rate (%)
23
23
25
24
23
23
25
24
22
21
24
24
25
26
27
28
29
29
30
31
32
32
026
809
589
001
183
429
435
308
845
982
357
120
635
881
784
515
207
934
651
383
041
822
41
41
42
41
44
42
43
45
39
40
37
38
39
39
39
39
40
40
40
41
41
41
709
400
075
824
547
395
301
680
115
712
982
558
102
249
564
811
103
402
754
090
424
793
9
8
9
11
10
8
8
9
8
8
8
9
9
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
125
896
799
227
021
615
502
061
302
657
469
535
842
002
144
268
372
476
567
660
768
851
2
2
3
2
3
3
2
3
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
972
836
022
893
200
672
805
082
830
942
920
262
102
207
377
588
792
915
012
111
207
290
76
76
80
79
80
78
80
82
73
75
74
75
77
79
80
82
83
84
85
87
88
89
2001/02-2006/07
2006/07-2011/12
2011/12-2016/17
2016/17-2021/22
1.3
-1.1
3.9
2.4
0.9
-2.3
0.8
0.8
-0.9
2.3
1.7
0.9
-0.2
3.1
3.1
2.5
0.8
-1.2
2.0
1.5
-
0.8
-0.4
0.7
0.7
2001/02-2011/12
2011/12-2021/22
0.1
3.1
-0.7
0.8
0.7
1.3
1.4
2.8
-0.2
1.7
-
0.2
0.7
a
Visiting friends and relatives
b
Hotels, motels, guesthouses, and serviced apartments
23
Table 4
Short-term resident departures by market, financial year
Business
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22
Compound annual
growth rate (%)
2001/02-2006/07
2006/07-2011/12
2011/12-2016/17
2016/17-2021/22
Purpose of visit
VFR Holiday
Other
'000
New
Total Zealand
United
States
United
Kingdom Indonesia
Hong
Kong Singapore
'000
Thailand Malaysia
Fiji
China
Other Other
Asia Europe
Other
Total
Total change
per cent
724
674
655
779
864
907
948
983
880
923
1 013
1 033
1 047
1 102
1 140
1 177
1 215
1 252
1 290
1 327
1 365
1 404
919
827
861
1 028
1 170
1 217
1 261
1 344
1 444
1 642
1 688
1 816
1 943
2 019
2 109
2 180
2 244
2 309
2 374
2 435
2 496
2 558
1 584
1 468
1 385
1 744
2 143
2 272
2 470
2 891
3 043
3 721
4 195
4 619
4 797
5 044
5 224
5 344
5 446
5 551
5 652
5 757
5 864
5 974
228
214
214
232
245
258
270
283
287
289
317
328
336
344
356
370
384
399
414
431
449
467
3 577
3 368
3 293
3 937
4 591
4 835
5 127
5 699
5 843
6 770
7 443
8 037
8 367
8 760
9 090
9 341
9 569
9 803
10 033
10 265
10 502
10 745
575
592
615
739
843
836
883
913
955
1 064
1 058
1 117
1 108
1 150
1 178
1 201
1 221
1 238
1 254
1 270
1 287
1 303
373
276
288
342
395
438
451
492
501
635
751
820
899
936
964
984
1 003
1 020
1 035
1 051
1 067
1 083
323
308
309
351
385
409
415
430
420
456
477
487
490
497
521
534
537
547
557
568
579
590
295
271
194
271
344
242
231
328
436
653
806
911
921
961
988
1 008
1 027
1 044
1 060
1 076
1 092
1 109
157
142
115
140
173
191
200
215
200
211
223
229
226
234
241
247
253
258
264
270
276
282
154
163
119
148
176
205
208
224
214
246
276
287
324
341
353
364
373
383
392
401
410
420
158
163
150
154
187
246
332
403
378
432
487
600
637
661
680
696
711
726
739
753
766
780
135
110
98
126
156
164
172
186
205
239
255
257
266
285
296
302
309
316
323
331
338
346
70
113
129
161
189
200
194
224
221
286
323
339
323
341
352
359
366
373
380
388
395
402
101
121
118
150
214
240
269
287
268
306
356
381
385
427
455
480
505
531
556
581
606
631
371
363
377
454
533
566
631
720
754
853
927
1 022
1 065
1 134
1 196
1 250
1 302
1 354
1 407
1 463
1 520
1 580
410
374
385
436
495
547
562
627
591
644
721
780
818
885
929
954
978
1 006
1 033
1 059
1 085
1 112
456
371
396
462
502
550
579
650
700
745
783
807
904
909
938
961
984
1 007
1 031
1 056
1 081
1 107
3 577
3 368
3 293
3 937
4 591
4 835
5 127
5 699
5 843
6 770
7 443
8 037
8 367
8 760
9 090
9 341
9 569
9 803
10 033
10 265
10 502
10 745
n.a.
-5.9
-2.2
19.5
16.6
5.3
6.0
11.2
2.5
15.9
9.9
8.0
4.1
4.7
3.8
2.8
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.3
2.3
2.3
7.0
1.7
3.3
2.9
8.8
7.6
4.3
2.7
11.0
13.3
3.3
1.9
4.7
4.0
3.2
4.0
8.8
9.4
3.6
2.3
8.3
4.8
1.8
1.3
10.3
12.7
4.1
1.5
6.1
3.2
2.0
1.9
-3.1
31.5
2.4
1.5
7.1
2.7
2.0
2.2
5.0
6.6
5.4
2.4
15.2
12.6
3.5
1.9
9.5
8.3
3.7
2.3
11.3
11.9
1.6
1.9
17.2
7.2
5.8
4.6
11.7
10.1
5.0
4.0
8.5
6.8
4.6
2.6
9.3
6.9
4.0
2.4
8.8
9.4
3.6
2.3
-
8.9
3.0
11.6
1.7
12.1
5.2
10.9
4.5
7.6
3.6
8.1
3.2
9.1
2.9
-
2001/02-2011/12
4.4
8.2
12.1
4.4
9.1
6.6
11.5
4.7
12.9
4.9
5.8
13.9
2011/12-2021/22
3.1
3.5
2.6
3.6
2.9
1.6
2.8
1.9
2.0
2.1
3.9
2.7
Numbers shaded are forecasts
The sum of purpose of visit categories does not add to the total as the total includes estimates for those not reporting a purpose of visit to overseas
24
Table 5
International visitor arrivals by market, financial year
New
Zealand
Japan
United
Kingdom
United
States
China
S'pore
South
Korea
Malaysia
828
788
793
926
1 082
1 091
1 115
1 121
1 106
1 123
1 183
1 191
1 211
1 231
1 259
1 291
1 318
1 343
1 368
1 392
1 417
1 441
724
659
659
688
701
674
610
521
404
364
364
344
351
365
374
380
386
391
395
400
404
408
605
627
644
686
699
709
733
686
659
653
632
597
585
593
605
620
635
649
663
677
691
706
502
424
424
430
446
453
455
455
452
489
466
464
487
502
519
540
560
579
599
619
639
660
143
172
177
217
274
292
338
375
358
394
500
583
676
746
801
847
890
927
965
1 005
1 044
1 085
293
296
262
253
267
252
263
267
278
290
315
320
360
377
390
402
411
421
430
439
449
458
165
181
196
216
237
243
271
236
193
196
205
199
189
194
201
209
216
224
231
238
246
253
148
154
142
175
169
153
157
166
195
214
244
243
277
302
314
324
334
344
354
364
374
384
154
149
141
132
149
159
153
147
150
154
170
169
183
189
196
201
207
211
216
221
226
231
2001/02-2006/07
7.2
-1.5
3.2
1.4
14.5
-2.3
8.4
0.4
0.6
1.7
13.2
2006/07-2011/12
1.3
-10.8
-4.0
0.4
11.5
3.9
-5.9
9.1
2.0
0.4
11.6
2011/12-2016/17
2.0
2.3
1.2
3.8
8.8
5.2
1.7
6.6
4.1
2.9
7.6
2016/17-2021/22
1.8
1.1
2.1
3.4
4.1
2.2
3.2
2.8
2.3
2.9
2001/02-2011/12
4.2
-6.3
-0.5
0.9
13.0
0.8
1.0
4.7
1.3
2011/12-2021/22
1.9
1.7
1.7
3.6
6.4
3.7
2.4
4.7
3.2
Hong
Kong Germany
Middle
East
Other
Asia
France
78
80
76
79
79
75
77
84
77
83
88
81
85
89
93
97
100
104
107
111
114
118
57
56
50
56
68
73
83
93
105
111
114
114
114
119
127
136
145
155
165
176
188
200
206
174
149
180
185
190
200
207
230
237
235
251
269
283
297
311
324
337
350
363
377
391
54
52
46
57
59
66
70
78
89
97
94
96
99
102
107
112
116
120
124
129
133
138
-2.1
-0.7
8.2
2.9
10.7
1.0
6.6
4.6
6.0
4.4
5.0
6.8
5.1
3.2
1.0
12.4
4.1
2.9
7.2
5.5
India Indonesia Thailand
Other
Ireland Europe Canada
South
Africa
Other
World
Total
'000
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22
148
137
134
141
142
150
149
155
159
163
159
152
156
158
164
170
175
180
186
191
196
202
46
47
41
54
59
79
88
108
120
130
144
152
164
176
191
205
220
236
252
269
287
306
Total
change
per cent
98
95
87
91
82
82
85
93
96
118
133
142
147
157
169
179
189
199
209
220
231
242
50
51
47
54
57
60
63
69
67
59
53
62
62
64
67
69
71
73
75
77
79
81
356
303
297
306
323
333
348
358
363
370
363
362
380
390
405
419
433
447
460
474
489
503
96
93
87
93
103
106
111
121
121
125
119
119
120
124
130
135
139
144
148
153
157
162
56
56
48
55
50
55
60
66
64
61
62
63
57
60
63
66
69
72
75
78
81
84
223
175
158
167
176
190
210
224
255
259
264
276
284
295
307
319
330
341
353
364
376
388
5 031
4 768
4 656
5 057
5 408
5 484
5 641
5 629
5 541
5 692
5 907
5 981
6 257
6 517
6 779
7 032
7 271
7 496
7 725
7 959
8 198
8 441
n.a.
-5.2
-2.4
8.6
6.9
1.4
2.9
-0.2
-1.6
2.7
3.8
1.2
4.6
4.2
4.0
3.7
3.4
3.1
3.1
3.0
3.0
3.0
6.1
4.6
2.8
3.5
1.6
3.7
3.4
-
6.5
-0.4
0.8
1.5
0.8
5.6
1.2
-
5.2
3.9
2.8
3.6
3.1
1.9
3.7
4.0
-
6.6
3.8
3.5
2.5
3.0
3.1
4.0
3.3
3.0
-
0.1
7.4
3.7
6.3
2.1
1.8
2.5
1.2
4.6
2.3
-
3.8
5.8
4.5
3.7
2.6
3.3
3.1
2.9
3.5
3.5
-
Compound annual growth rate (%)
Numbers shaded are forecasts.
25
Table 6
International visitor arrivals by purpose of visit, financial year
Business
VFR
a
Holiday
Other
b
Total
Total
change
611
564
556
636
679
766
824
849
766
785
852
882
901
936
970
1 000
1 027
1 054
1 080
1 106
1 132
1 158
1 021
855
865
986
1 098
1 109
1 153
1 201
1 283
1 392
1 430
1 467
1 562
1 622
1 683
1 742
1 798
1 851
1 905
1 960
2 016
2 073
'000
2 693
2 296
2 361
2 603
2 866
2 895
2 896
2 754
2 604
2 608
2 657
2 642
2 785
2 911
3 025
3 135
3 239
3 334
3 432
3 531
3 632
3 735
513
477
473
558
528
621
668
714
771
780
823
841
861
904
955
1 009
1 061
1 111
1 163
1 217
1 273
1 330
5 031
4 768
4 656
5 057
5 408
5 484
5 641
5 629
5 541
5 692
5 907
5 981
6 257
6 517
6 779
7 032
7 271
7 496
7 725
7 959
8 198
8 441
per cent
n.a.
-5.2
-2.4
8.6
6.9
1.4
2.9
-0.2
-1.6
2.7
3.8
1.2
4.6
4.2
4.0
3.7
3.4
3.1
3.1
3.0
3.0
3.0
2001/02-2006/07
2006/07-2011/12
2011/12-2016/17
2016/17-2021/22
7.9
1.4
3.1
2.4
6.2
4.9
4.1
2.9
4.7
-1.8
4.2
2.9
7.0
4.7
4.8
4.6
3.4
1.2
4.0
3.0
-
2001/02-2011/12
2011/12-2021/22
4.6
2.8
5.6
3.5
1.4
3.5
5.8
4.7
2.3
3.5
-
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22
Compound annual
growth rate (%)
Numbers shaded are forecasts
a
Visiting friends and relatives
b
Other refers to education and employment visitors who stay in Australia for one year or less
The sum of purpose of visit categories does not add to the total as the total includes estimates for those not reporting a
purpose of visit to Australia.
26
Table 7
International leisure visitor arrivals by market, financial year
New
Zealand
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22
United
Japan Kingdom
United
States
China
S'pore
South
Korea
Malaysia
Hong
Kong Germany
Thailand
Middle
East
51
45
40
45
43
41
41
45
40
45
47
44
46
48
50
53
55
57
59
61
63
66
41
37
33
39
47
51
55
59
66
66
69
65
64
67
71
77
82
88
94
101
108
115
138
106
90
122
130
135
134
134
149
150
142
155
171
181
191
200
209
217
226
235
244
253
34
31
29
32
40
48
50
56
63
71
69
70
71
73
77
80
83
86
89
92
95
98
41
39
37
44
48
51
53
58
53
47
39
43
42
43
45
47
48
49
51
52
53
55
251
207
207
211
236
249
259
263
263
278
268
262
273
280
291
302
312
323
334
345
356
367
Compound annual growth rate (%)
2.3
12.0
-1.2
-1.9
0.0
14.9
12.4
1.4
2.9
8.6
6.6
4.6
8.0
3.7
4.7
4.7
2.9
6.2
10.2
6.9
3.5
6.2
-4.3
2.4
24
24
20
26
31
38
42
52
57
67
74
84
94
103
111
119
127
135
144
153
162
172
Other
Ireland Europe Canada
South
Africa
Other
World
Total
Total
change
73
67
63
69
79
82
83
91
90
96
89
88
89
92
96
100
103
107
110
113
117
120
37
35
30
35
32
37
41
46
46
45
43
44
41
43
45
48
50
52
55
57
60
62
128
100
92
99
105
112
125
133
149
161
164
169
174
179
187
194
201
208
214
221
228
235
3 713
3 151
3 226
3 589
3 964
4 004
4 049
3 955
3 887
3 999
4 087
4 109
4 347
4 533
4 708
4 877
5 037
5 186
5 337
5 491
5 648
5 807
n.a.
-15.1
2.4
11.2
10.4
1.0
1.1
-2.3
-1.7
2.9
2.2
0.6
5.8
4.3
3.9
3.6
3.3
3.0
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.8
4.5
0.2
3.6
4.5
1.0
3.3
3.1
1.2
2.7
4.6
6.3
3.5
5.1
0.3
4.2
-
per cent
623
436
534
575
605
581
516
435
330
296
290
268
271
283
290
295
299
303
307
310
314
317
512
496
522
566
603
620
642
595
570
562
533
490
478
483
492
505
517
529
540
552
564
575
331
254
249
246
288
292
285
275
286
314
289
284
306
315
327
341
356
370
384
399
414
429
76
90
93
116
149
166
199
223
222
232
308
385
465
522
559
589
616
638
661
684
707
730
221
186
171
170
184
160
161
160
173
180
191
191
229
241
248
252
256
260
263
267
270
274
120
120
140
161
183
185
205
176
137
141
153
147
140
144
149
155
160
165
170
175
181
186
113
107
100
130
122
109
108
116
140
155
178
177
209
231
239
246
252
259
265
272
279
285
114
100
94
93
106
113
104
97
103
102
115
115
129
133
137
141
144
147
149
152
155
158
2001/02-2006/07
2006/07-2011/12
2011/12-2016/17
8.7
1.1
2.0
3.4
-12.3
2.2
5.3
-5.3
1.1
2.4
-0.1
4.7
17.2
14.2
9.8
-2.9
3.5
6.1
11.3
-6.5
1.7
0.2
10.4
7.3
0.8
1.9
4.6
2016/17-2021/22
1.9
1.2
2.2
3.8
3.5
1.4
3.1
2.5
1.9
2.7
6.3
4.9
3.7
6.9
3.9
3.4
2.6
3.3
3.1
4.5
3.2
2.9
-
-4.8
1.7
-0.1
1.6
1.1
4.2
15.7
6.6
0.2
3.7
2.0
2.4
5.2
4.9
1.4
3.2
1.1
2.8
13.4
7.5
5.4
5.8
-0.3
4.1
5.8
5.8
3.8
5.0
8.5
3.5
0.8
2.5
2.4
3.4
2.8
3.2
2.2
3.6
5.4
3.4
2.7
3.5
-
27
60
52
50
54
48
48
49
51
56
72
81
88
93
101
108
115
121
127
134
140
147
154
Other
Asia France
608
516
529
653
774
765
782
770
770
793
824
828
841
852
870
892
912
930
948
966
985
1 003
2001/02-2011/12
4.8
2011/12-2021/22
1.9
Numbers shaded are forecasts
118
103
103
104
110
118
115
119
121
125
122
115
119
121
125
129
133
137
140
144
148
152
India Indonesia
'000
Table 8
International visitor nights by market, financial year
New
Zealand
Japan
United
Kingdom
United
States
China Singapore
South Malaysia
Korea
Hong Germany
Kong
13.8
11.1
11.0
12.6
14.0
15.8
15.8
15.6
15.3
14.3
16.4
16.7
17.2
17.1
17.9
17.6
17.9
18.2
18.5
18.8
19.1
19.4
8.8
8.9
8.7
10.9
10.7
11.7
12.0
10.4
8.7
7.9
8.4
9.0
9.2
9.3
9.4
9.4
9.5
9.5
9.5
9.5
9.5
9.5
24.7
24.3
23.7
28.1
23.2
23.7
24.4
22.2
23.4
23.8
22.6
21.7
22.7
21.6
21.2
21.5
22.1
22.5
22.9
23.4
23.8
24.4
11.1
11.3
11.3
10.3
9.6
10.4
10.2
9.7
9.6
10.7
10.4
10.8
11.0
10.8
11.0
11.5
11.9
12.4
12.8
13.2
13.7
14.1
4.0
5.2
7.1
9.1
10.9
11.9
15.3
15.9
17.7
22.5
25.8
26.9
31.0
34.2
37.2
39.6
42.7
45.0
47.5
49.5
52.8
55.5
5.5
4.9
4.7
4.6
4.5
4.9
5.3
5.3
5.5
6.1
6.1
6.3
7.4
7.8
8.0
8.2
8.4
8.6
8.8
8.9
9.1
9.3
6.3
6.1
5.6
6.3
7.2
10.2
12.7
11.5
13.8
14.6
13.4
13.3
12.1
12.2
13.0
13.8
14.6
15.4
16.2
17.0
17.9
18.8
3.6
3.5
3.3
4.5
4.5
5.0
5.3
5.6
6.7
6.6
7.0
6.9
8.0
9.1
9.7
10.2
10.7
11.2
11.7
12.2
12.7
13.3
3.7
3.9
3.4
3.7
3.3
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.8
5.5
5.3
5.9
6.4
6.0
6.0
6.2
6.5
6.7
6.9
7.2
7.4
7.7
7.4
1.2
1.4
1.6
6.0
-5.6
1.1
0.1
0.0
-2.3
0.3
2.0
-1.9
1.1
2.0
3.4
23.9
12.0
9.7
5.4
1.8
3.7
5.8
1.9
15.9
1.0
1.8
5.3
8.6
5.5
9.0
4.4
2.9
5.6
2.1
3.4
India Indonesia Thailand
Middle
East
Other France
Asia
Ireland
Other Canada
Europe
South
Africa
Other
World
Total
million
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22
2001/02-2006/07
2006/07-2011/12
2011/12-2016/17
2016/17-2021/22
2001/02-2011/12
4.2
0.0
-1.1
-0.4
17.8
2.7
8.2
7.0
4.2
2011/12-2021/22
1.5
0.6
1.2
2.7
7.5
3.9
3.5
6.7
2.7
Numbers shaded are forecasts
Historical estimates for international visitor nights have changed due to a slight change in the methodology
4.6
5.5
4.7
6.5
5.7
6.7
6.9
7.1
7.5
7.4
6.9
7.3
7.5
7.7
7.9
8.2
8.3
8.4
8.6
8.7
8.8
9.0
2.3
1.8
1.9
1.7
2.3
3.5
4.4
5.7
7.4
8.0
9.7
8.9
10.0
10.9
11.6
12.2
13.0
13.7
14.5
15.3
16.2
17.1
per cent
3.7
3.0
2.7
3.8
2.8
2.8
3.1
3.3
3.3
4.5
5.2
4.5
4.9
5.4
5.8
6.3
6.7
7.1
7.5
7.9
8.4
8.9
Compound annual growth rate (%)
4.6
19.5
1.1
1.0
15.0
7.3
2.7
7.9
8.5
1.5
5.7
5.9
2.8
2.1
17.2
6.8
28
Total
change
4.2
7.2
3.0
2.4
2.6
2.5
2.9
3.0
3.2
3.2
3.8
3.9
4.4
4.2
4.3
4.2
4.4
4.5
4.7
4.9
5.1
5.3
5.5
5.7
2.3
2.7
1.9
2.4
2.2
3.0
3.4
4.1
4.4
4.8
5.2
4.7
4.7
5.1
5.4
5.9
6.4
6.9
7.4
8.0
8.7
9.3
5.7
4.8
4.3
4.5
5.3
6.8
7.6
9.7
12.3
13.4
14.0
17.6
17.6
18.4
19.0
20.4
21.6
22.7
24.0
25.3
26.7
28.1
1.4
1.9
1.7
2.5
1.9
2.3
3.7
3.6
4.7
5.3
5.2
5.8
5.9
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.6
6.8
7.0
7.2
7.3
7.5
3.4
3.5
2.5
2.9
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.8
4.1
4.1
3.7
5.1
5.1
5.2
5.3
5.3
5.3
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.4
13.2
12.2
10.9
10.8
11.5
12.6
13.6
14.4
14.3
14.4
14.5
16.0
16.5
16.5
17.2
18.1
18.8
19.5
20.1
20.8
21.6
22.3
4.7
4.0
3.1
3.5
4.1
4.1
4.5
4.8
5.3
4.4
4.5
4.6
4.5
4.6
4.8
5.0
5.1
5.3
5.4
5.6
5.7
5.9
1.4
1.2
1.5
1.7
1.5
1.7
1.7
1.5
1.9
1.8
1.9
2.0
1.8
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.6
5.5
3.9
4.1
4.0
4.1
5.2
6.0
7.4
9.0
8.5
9.3
9.8
10.4
10.5
11.0
11.8
12.4
13.0
13.7
14.3
15.1
15.8
133
126
121
137
136
153
167
170
183
192
200
208
218
224
234
244
255
265
276
286
298
309
n.a.
-5.0
-4.2
13.4
-0.9
12.8
9.3
1.4
8.0
5.0
4.0
3.8
5.1
2.7
4.3
4.4
4.5
3.9
3.9
3.7
4.1
3.9
5.8
5.5
2.4
3.8
4.8
6.6
6.5
7.8
9.7
18.2
4.2
5.4
14.1
9.3
2.7
2.6
1.5
6.4
0.9
0.2
2.2
3.2
3.3
3.5
2.5
0.2
2.4
2.7
6.9
2.7
1.4
4.4
9.0
10.2
4.7
5.0
5.8
4.4
4.2
3.9
-
5.7
3.1
5.7
7.2
13.9
4.8
11.7
2.6
3.9
0.6
2.7
3.4
1.4
2.5
4.8
2.9
9.6
4.9
5.1
4.1
-
Table 9
International visitor nights in hotels, motels, guesthouses & serviced apartments by market, financial year
New
Zealand
Japan
United
Kingdom
United
States
China Singapore
South Malaysia
Korea
Hong Germany
Kong
2.1
2.5
2.4
2.9
3.5
3.7
4.0
3.9
3.5
3.3
3.5
3.3
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.6
3.7
3.8
3.8
3.9
3.1
2.8
2.9
2.8
2.7
2.7
2.3
2.0
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.2
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.4
3.0
3.8
3.7
4.1
4.2
4.7
4.8
4.0
3.7
3.0
3.2
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.3
3.3
3.4
3.4
3.5
3.1
2.7
2.8
2.7
2.7
3.3
3.1
3.3
2.7
2.9
2.7
2.8
3.0
3.3
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.8
3.9
4.0
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.9
1.5
1.6
1.8
2.1
1.5
1.7
2.1
2.5
2.8
3.2
3.5
3.6
3.8
3.9
4.0
4.1
4.3
4.4
1.1
1.2
1.1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.2
1.3
1.2
1.4
1.4
1.5
1.7
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.0
2.1
2.1
2.2
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.8
0.8
1.2
1.2
1.1
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.8
0.7
0.8
0.8
1.1
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.3
1.3
1.4
1.4
1.5
1.5
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.8
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.9
0.9
0.9
10.0
-4.2
1.8
1.8
-3.9
-13.0
2.8
1.3
4.8
-11.5
4.6
1.5
2.4
-1.7
4.3
2.9
18.0
6.8
8.8
3.1
3.0
0.7
6.0
2.8
15.3
-9.8
4.0
-2.0
5.7
6.1
8.8
3.6
0.0
1.4
3.3
4.0
India
Indonesia Thailand
Middle
East
Other France
Asia
Ireland
Other Canada
Europe
South
Africa
Other
World
Total
million
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22
2001/02-2006/07
2006/07-2011/12
2011/12-2016/17
2016/17-2021/22
2001/02-2011/12
2.7
-8.6
-3.7
0.3
12.3
1.9
2.0
5.9
2011/12-2021/22
1.8
2.1
3.0
3.6
5.9
4.4
1.0
6.2
Numbers shaded are forecasts
Historical estimates for international visitor nights have changed due to a slight change in the methodology
0.7
3.7
1.4
1.4
1.1
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.2
1.0
1.0
1.0
0.9
1.0
0.8
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.5
0.7
0.8
1.1
0.9
0.7
1.2
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.5
1.6
1.7
per cent
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.9
0.9
1.0
1.1
Compound annual growth rate (%)
-4.0
26.6
4.0
-3.9
3.7
8.9
-3.2
7.6
9.0
1.9
5.6
5.7
-3.9
-0.7
29
14.5
6.6
Total
change
6.4
7.3
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.1
1.1
1.2
1.2
1.3
1.3
1.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.5
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
2.3
2.0
1.8
1.7
2.2
2.3
2.8
2.4
2.3
2.2
2.4
2.0
2.1
2.3
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.9
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.8
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.9
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.6
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.1
1.2
1.2
1.3
1.3
1.4
22.2
22.4
21.3
22.6
25.3
28.1
29.3
28.1
25.2
24.0
25.8
24.5
25.5
27.6
29.0
29.9
30.8
31.7
32.6
33.5
34.5
35.4
n.a.
1.2
-5.1
6.2
12.2
10.9
4.1
-3.8
-10.2
-4.9
7.4
-5.1
4.3
8.0
5.3
2.9
3.2
2.9
2.9
2.7
2.9
2.7
5.8
-6.3
7.7
3.5
7.2
2.8
4.8
5.0
4.4
3.3
3.7
4.5
11.4
-0.9
2.2
2.0
21.8
-6.0
4.5
0.2
6.7
-6.4
4.7
2.9
9.3
-5.5
2.5
3.1
2.8
-7.1
6.5
2.8
6.1
2.1
6.8
4.4
5.5
-3.5
4.7
2.8
-
-0.4
5.6
5.0
4.9
3.8
4.1
5.1
2.1
7.0
2.3
-0.1
3.8
1.7
2.8
-2.3
4.6
4.1
5.6
0.9
3.8
-
Table 10
International leisure visitor nights by market, financial year
New
Zealand
United
Japan Kingdom
United
States
China
S'pore
South
Korea Malaysia
Hong
Kong Germany
Thailand
Middle
East
1.0
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.0
1.3
1.5
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.3
1.7
1.7
1.3
1.6
1.6
2.0
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.1
2.3
1.8
2.0
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.5
2.7
2.9
3.0
3.2
3.4
2.9
2.0
1.8
1.8
2.2
3.1
3.6
4.5
6.1
6.2
6.6
7.9
8.8
8.3
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
10.6
11.2
11.8
12.5
1.0
0.8
0.8
0.8
1.2
1.4
2.5
2.5
3.1
3.7
3.4
3.9
3.9
3.9
4.0
4.2
4.3
4.5
4.6
4.7
4.8
4.9
2.8
2.4
1.9
2.1
2.5
2.5
2.6
2.8
3.1
2.8
1.9
2.5
2.4
2.4
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
8.6
8.1
6.9
6.8
7.8
8.9
9.4
9.9
9.6
10.0
9.7
10.4
10.7
10.6
11.0
11.5
11.9
12.3
12.8
13.2
13.6
14.1
Compound annual growth rate (%)
4.8
22.0
3.4
6.5
1.6
20.5
9.5
11.9
3.0
6.4
10.0
1.0
2.1
-1.2
6.8
12.5
16.9
3.7
26.6
9.7
2.0
1.5
-0.8
0.4
India Indonesia
Other
Asia France
Other
Ireland Europe Canada
South
Africa
Other
World
Total
3.1
2.6
1.9
2.1
3.0
2.9
3.2
3.3
3.5
2.9
3.1
3.0
3.1
3.1
3.3
3.4
3.6
3.7
3.8
3.9
4.0
4.1
1.0
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.1
1.0
1.1
1.1
1.4
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.2
1.4
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.7
1.8
1.9
3.1
2.1
1.8
2.0
2.1
2.4
2.6
2.9
3.8
4.0
4.8
5.0
4.9
4.6
4.8
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.9
6.1
6.3
84.5
69.3
67.2
73.9
80.5
86.6
93.7
91.5
98.0
102.4
104.9
108.3
113.1
113.3
116.6
121.6
126.2
130.2
134.3
138.5
142.9
147.5
n.a.
-18.0
-3.0
10.0
8.9
7.6
8.3
-2.4
7.2
4.5
2.4
3.2
4.4
0.1
3.0
4.3
3.7
3.2
3.2
3.1
3.2
3.2
3.1
1.9
2.9
3.9
-1.3
3.5
6.0
2.7
2.9
4.6
13.9
0.9
6.2
2.9
3.1
-
million
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22
3.5
3.7
3.1
4.3
4.1
4.8
4.7
5.1
5.5
5.1
5.0
5.1
5.3
5.4
5.6
5.7
5.9
6.0
6.2
6.3
6.5
6.6
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.5
0.6
1.2
1.5
1.8
2.1
2.6
3.3
3.9
4.4
4.8
4.9
5.1
5.3
5.5
5.6
5.8
6.0
6.1
Total
change
per cent
9.6
6.8
7.1
8.2
9.9
9.8
10.3
9.7
9.7
9.4
10.2
10.6
10.4
10.3
10.4
10.6
10.8
10.9
11.1
11.2
11.3
11.5
6.4
4.6
5.4
5.6
6.7
6.5
6.3
5.8
5.2
4.8
5.1
4.6
4.6
4.7
4.7
4.8
4.8
4.8
4.8
4.9
4.9
4.9
21.3
17.1
18.4
20.7
19.7
20.1
20.3
18.5
19.7
19.7
17.7
16.5
17.1
16.1
15.6
16.1
16.6
16.9
17.1
17.5
17.8
18.2
6.7
5.4
5.0
4.3
4.9
5.2
5.2
4.8
5.2
5.8
5.7
5.7
6.0
5.8
6.0
6.3
6.5
6.7
7.0
7.2
7.5
7.7
1.4
1.7
1.6
2.3
3.2
3.5
4.8
3.7
4.3
5.9
7.7
8.5
10.1
11.5
12.2
13.1
13.9
14.5
15.1
15.6
16.3
16.9
2.4
2.0
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.9
2.0
1.7
1.9
2.1
2.3
2.3
2.7
2.9
3.0
3.0
3.1
3.1
3.2
3.2
3.3
3.3
3.4
2.5
2.5
3.1
3.4
4.5
6.3
5.7
5.8
7.1
7.1
7.1
6.4
6.1
6.4
6.9
7.2
7.6
8.0
8.3
8.8
9.2
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.7
1.7
1.5
1.8
1.8
2.2
2.1
2.5
2.4
3.0
3.5
3.7
3.8
3.9
4.1
4.2
4.3
4.4
4.5
1.2
1.3
1.3
1.2
1.4
1.7
1.6
1.7
1.9
2.2
2.1
2.6
2.5
2.5
2.7
2.8
2.8
2.9
3.0
3.1
3.2
3.3
2001/02-2006/07
2006/07-2011/12
2011/12-2016/17
8.6
0.6
0.4
6.6
-5.8
0.7
3.5
-4.1
0.1
-0.7
2.0
2.5
23.1
12.1
10.2
0.2
2.4
6.2
20.2
2.4
0.4
3.6
6.5
10.2
3.8
9.8
2.2
2016/17-2021/22
1.2
0.3
1.9
3.4
4.0
1.5
4.9
2.8
3.0
2.3
3.0
5.4
4.9
6.1
5.6
2.6
0.8
3.4
2.8
4.6
3.9
3.2
-
2001/02-2011/12
4.5
2011/12-2021/22
0.8
Numbers shaded are forecasts
0.2
0.5
-0.4
1.0
0.6
3.0
17.4
7.1
1.3
3.8
10.9
2.6
5.0
6.4
6.8
2.6
3.2
2.7
21.2
4.7
6.4
7.7
9.2
3.0
0.5
6.5
14.7
4.6
17.8
2.3
0.3
0.6
2.5
3.1
1.3
3.1
4.3
3.8
9.1
2.4
4.6
3.1
-
30
1.1
0.8
0.7
1.0
0.8
0.8
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.5
1.6
1.5
1.8
2.0
2.1
2.3
2.4
2.6
2.7
2.8
3.0
3.2
Table 11
International leisure visitor nights in hotels, motels, guesthouses & serviced apartments by markets, financial year
New
Zealand
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22
United
Japan Kingdom
United
States
China
S'pore
South
Korea
Malaysia
Hong
Kong Germany
Thailand
Middle
East
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
1.6
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.5
1.7
1.9
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.7
1.8
1.8
1.9
1.9
2.0
2.1
Compound annual growth rate (%)
-4.8
5.4
2.3
-3.3
-3.2
2.3
3.9
-3.1
-4.9
7.2
12.3
3.6
10.8
-5.5
8.5
3.6
-6.8
7.5
15.4
-0.3
-0.7
20.2
-11.7
6.2
1.1
1.1
0.9
0.6
0.7
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
India Indonesia
million
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.5
Other
Ireland Europe Canada
South
Africa
Other
World
Total
Total
change
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.7
16.1
14.5
14.7
15.5
17.5
19.0
19.5
18.0
16.4
15.4
15.4
14.3
15.2
16.6
17.4
17.8
18.3
18.8
19.3
19.7
20.2
20.7
n.a.
-9.8
1.1
5.5
12.9
8.8
2.3
-7.6
-8.7
-6.3
0.5
-7.2
6.2
8.9
4.7
2.6
2.8
2.5
2.6
2.4
2.5
2.4
6.4
-6.0
4.8
7.4
-5.7
1.8
3.1
-8.7
9.2
5.4
3.4
6.6
6.0
-5.9
5.0
-
per cent
1.4
1.4
1.5
1.9
2.4
2.5
2.8
2.4
2.2
2.0
2.1
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.9
2.0
2.0
2.1
2.1
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.7
1.9
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.3
2.0
1.7
1.2
1.1
1.0
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
2.4
2.7
2.8
3.1
3.5
3.8
4.0
3.3
3.1
2.4
2.5
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.1
1.6
1.7
1.4
1.7
1.8
1.7
1.7
1.5
1.6
1.4
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.8
1.9
1.9
2.0
2.1
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.7
1.0
1.1
1.1
1.0
1.0
1.3
1.6
2.0
2.3
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.9
3.0
3.0
3.1
0.8
0.8
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.9
1.0
0.9
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.9
0.9
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.6
2001/02-2006/07
2006/07-2011/12
2011/12-2016/17
14.9
-7.5
1.8
0.7
-13.7
-0.2
8.3
-15.1
6.0
0.8
-3.1
4.4
25.7
8.5
10.8
-2.4
-1.2
7.3
9.9
-7.2
2.9
3.2
5.4
10.6
-2.0
1.9
4.1
2016/17-2021/22
1.9
0.6
1.2
3.3
2.8
1.5
-2.1
2.7
4.3
2.1
3.2
5.7
4.7
5.2
4.4
1.8
0.8
3.2
2.8
3.3
4.4
2.5
-
2001/02-2011/12
3.1
2011/12-2021/22
1.8
Numbers shaded are forecasts
-6.8
0.2
-4.1
3.6
-1.2
3.9
16.8
6.7
-1.8
4.4
1.0
0.3
4.3
6.6
-0.1
4.2
-4.0
-1.5
3.9
5.2
3.1
9.0
-3.2
4.1
2.3
6.8
-1.7
6.0
7.2
0.5
3.1
3.5
0.0
4.0
0.6
2.3
-3.0
6.2
4.4
5.5
-0.1
3.7
-
31
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
Other
Asia France
-
Table 12
Real Total Inbound Tourism Expenditure by market, financial year (real, base = Quarter 4 2012, $million)
New
Zealand
United
Japan Kingdom
United
States
China
S'pore
South
Korea Malaysia
Hong
Kong Germany
India Indonesia Thailand
Middle
East
Other
Asia France
Other
Ireland Europe Canada
South
Africa
Other
World
Total
$ million
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22
1 988
1 877
1 965
2 055
2 324
2 447
2 466
2 548
2 263
2 164
2 246
2 276
2 332
2 463
2 558
2 547
2 588
2 622
2 652
2 683
2 714
2 744
4 140
3 351
3 103
3 039
3 043
3 186
2 405
2 036
1 953
1 529
1 474
1 470
1 550
1 536
1 558
1 567
1 575
1 579
1 584
1 588
1 591
1 593
4 416
4 688
4 743
4 753
4 343
4 295
4 744
4 287
4 067
3 432
3 141
2 867
2 975
3 205
3 233
3 245
3 284
3 314
3 346
3 373
3 403
3 430
3 870
3 970
3 162
2 885
2 737
2 924
2 683
2 793
2 697
2 308
2 222
2 334
2 428
2 462
2 472
2 504
2 531
2 553
2 573
2 593
2 614
2 633
1 031
1 258
1 349
1 542
1 913
1 875
2 050
2 493
2 901
3 112
3 610
3 853
4 487
4 845
5 228
5 526
5 925
6 228
6 553
6 812
7 263
7 631
1 243
1 285
1 195
912
912
910
991
1 165
1 107
1 109
1 231
1 218
1 234
1 228
1 287
1 336
1 366
1 392
1 417
1 444
1 469
1 494
1 031
1 000
1 047
1 050
1 181
1 410
1 693
1 478
1 419
1 271
1 296
1 316
1 242
1 268
1 319
1 361
1 402
1 439
1 479
1 519
1 558
1 598
692
730
663
802
720
721
772
939
967
1 027
1 048
1 046
1 147
1 249
1 306
1 356
1 386
1 414
1 443
1 471
1 501
1 530
874
1 016
751
704
647
729
748
751
788
767
846
802
826
843
868
895
917
934
957
975
997
1 017
1 159
1 214
1 094
1 152
1 057
1 039
1 094
1 170
1 204
1 080
920
901
920
990
1 026
1 072
1 100
1 129
1 156
1 185
1 213
1 242
464
351
290
218
348
401
459
740
859
804
960
724
867
1 000
1 092
1 196
1 313
1 434
1 567
1 710
1 864
2 030
5.6
-1.6
2.6
1.2
-6.4
-9.4
1.4
0.2
0.2
-9.6
2.8
0.9
-7.5
-2.7
1.6
0.8
10.3
13.5
9.0
5.2
-5.0
4.2
2.3
1.8
11.1
-4.9
1.3
2.6
1.1
6.2
5.8
2.0
-6.0
1.4
2.7
2.1
-2.1
-3.8
4.1
2.5
5.5
9.5
12.6
9.1
2001/02-2011/12
1.9
2011/12-2021/22
1.9
Numbers shaded are forecasts
-7.9
0.8
-4.8
1.8
-5.2
1.2
11.8
7.1
-0.5
2.1
2.8
2.0
3.7
3.9
-2.3
2.4
-2.9
3.3
7.5
10.9
Total
change
per cent
639
586
509
546
431
435
418
521
476
521
638
659
620
617
661
705
741
775
810
847
884
923
388
432
433
437
426
381
374
426
491
448
515
405
434
462
493
509
526
543
559
575
591
608
345
412
301
401
270
312
404
641
657
582
445
414
459
512
560
607
657
712
772
839
913
993
983
892
817
860
772
839
878
1 049
1 304
1 324
1 315
1 420
1 472
1 551
1 586
1 739
1 821
1 903
1 988
2 077
2 169
2 265
304
333
322
362
317
366
499
537
654
622
565
563
594
678
732
775
806
838
871
904
938
972
537
433
414
512
571
677
660
669
780
608
529
671
663
687
725
741
757
771
785
799
812
825
2 826
2 536
2 523
2 325
2 245
2 209
2 351
2 569
2 636
2 352
2 200
2 058
2 177
2 376
2 462
2 577
2 640
2 702
2 767
2 831
2 898
2 963
792
737
657
593
686
726
790
865
872
724
699
657
692
763
801
819
839
859
879
899
919
939
289
275
317
434
387
344
374
440
481
317
348
362
343
356
378
392
402
412
422
433
443
454
1 056
706
597
561
768
902
846
936
1 175
1 109
1 175
1 172
1 193
1 236
1 264
1 352
1 399
1 446
1 494
1 545
1 597
1 651
29 070
28 082
26 251
26 142
26 098
27 129
27 700
29 052
29 754
27 211
27 423
27 190
28 655
30 327
31 608
32 822
33 978
34 999
36 073
37 099
38 350
39 536
n.a.
-3.4
-6.5
-0.4
-0.2
4.0
2.1
4.9
2.4
-8.5
0.8
-0.8
5.4
5.8
4.2
3.8
3.5
3.0
3.1
2.8
3.4
3.1
-6.5
9.5
2.4
4.5
-2.8
1.6
5.4
2.9
-0.4
0.5
9.7
8.6
-0.3
10.1
5.1
4.5
8.4
2.4
7.4
3.8
8.8
0.3
2.4
1.7
-1.5
-2.6
5.1
2.3
1.4
-3.6
5.0
2.3
6.3
-0.6
2.1
2.4
3.7
6.7
3.6
3.4
-0.3
-0.4
4.6
3.1
-
1.2
3.4
-0.6
4.2
0.0
9.2
4.8
4.8
5.4
5.6
4.5
2.1
-2.1
3.7
-1.1
3.6
2.8
2.3
5.2
3.5
-0.3
3.8
`
Compound annual growth rate (%)
2001/02-2006/07
2006/07-2011/12
2011/12-2016/17
2016/17-2021/22
32
Table 13
Inbound leisure tourism expenditure by market, financial year (real, base = Quarter 4 2012, $million)
New
Zealand
United
Japan Kingdom
United
States
China
S'pore
South
Korea
Malaysia
Hong
Kong Germany
India Indonesia Thailand
Middle
East
Other
Asia France
Other
Ireland Europe Canada
South
Africa
Other
World
Total
$ million
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22
1 289
1 208
1 327
1 424
1 636
1 652
1 662
1 675
1 501
1 437
1 393
1 435
1 476
1 632
1 654
1 687
1 711
1 732
1 752
1 772
1 791
1 810
3 544
2 623
2 508
2 317
2 450
2 393
1 815
1 518
1 473
1 076
1 008
984
997
971
968
974
969
963
956
949
942
935
3 767
3 718
4 013
3 864
3 763
3 686
4 088
3 606
3 421
2 814
2 471
2 140
2 243
2 451
2 450
2 470
2 492
2 505
2 523
2 534
2 550
2 563
2 375
2 077
1 691
1 417
1 563
1 582
1 532
1 512
1 463
1 241
1 106
1 202
1 288
1 293
1 299
1 316
1 337
1 353
1 369
1 384
1 398
1 412
394
550
499
487
655
733
764
877
1 132
966
1 180
1 471
1 736
1 911
1 990
2 064
2 121
2 157
2 194
2 230
2 266
2 298
660
658
642
439
449
398
444
447
469
460
504
475
539
568
594
615
619
622
625
628
631
634
615
584
674
660
768
826
1 048
874
690
653
725
706
672
691
714
730
745
758
772
785
798
812
359
369
320
365
345
286
335
362
397
428
458
431
489
552
579
593
600
607
613
620
626
632
501
530
399
307
354
373
347
357
355
329
396
366
408
417
422
431
433
434
439
439
444
445
6.6
-2.9
3.6
1.1
-7.1
-11.5
-0.3
-0.7
1.9
-12.1
3.1
0.6
-5.9
-4.7
2.1
1.1
6.8
14.0
7.6
1.6
-7.6
1.4
5.4
0.5
12.4
-7.6
1.1
1.7
-1.9
5.2
6.9
1.0
-8.2
1.1
3.4
0.5
2001/02-2011/12
1.7
2011/12-2021/22
2.3
Numbers shaded are forecasts
-9.3
-0.5
-5.4
1.8
-5.3
1.6
10.3
4.6
-3.2
2.9
1.9
1.4
1.5
3.9
-3.6
2.0
2001/02-2006/07
2006/07-2011/12
2011/12-2016/17
2016/17-2021/22
949
957
882
821
815
811
830
841
928
783
680
658
663
705
730
747
760
773
785
798
809
821
144
132
96
70
119
121
124
194
181
176
203
229
261
286
307
331
356
382
410
439
469
502
246
200
202
201
142
149
142
174
173
186
239
266
225
241
259
268
277
285
293
301
309
317
Compound annual growth rate (%)
-2.8
-1.2
-6.6
-4.5
13.0
13.3
2.9
9.3
0.9
1.5
7.1
2.7
-3.7
2.2
33
5.7
8.2
2.9
1.8
Total
change
per cent
153
180
159
132
130
129
124
135
136
120
162
125
129
129
148
150
155
160
165
170
175
180
187
313
202
227
205
208
240
329
297
219
171
145
154
177
192
199
209
218
228
238
248
258
556
465
411
406
387
418
417
465
586
511
492
507
564
581
605
639
664
687
711
735
760
785
190
198
221
219
207
253
342
381
438
436
369
370
408
462
510
533
555
576
598
620
642
666
478
336
359
409
488
517
545
574
662
480
326
387
385
398
410
421
431
439
446
453
460
466
1 919
1 805
1 747
1 573
1 608
1 547
1 715
1 791
1 780
1 659
1 504
1 314
1 435
1 570
1 641
1 694
1 732
1 769
1 808
1 844
1 883
1 920
573
533
452
400
503
516
562
602
572
502
451
418
444
501
526
535
547
558
569
581
592
603
174
174
185
306
265
191
228
236
277
200
190
220
210
217
230
239
247
255
262
269
277
284
578
367
337
262
381
420
400
428
515
504
540
500
499
525
542
558
570
581
592
603
614
625
19 650
17 975
17 324
16 306
17 232
17 207
17 705
17 379
17 444
15 179
14 566
14 348
15 227
16 279
16 771
17 193
17 532
17 815
18 108
18 391
18 684
18 967
n.a.
-8.5
-3.6
-5.9
5.7
-0.1
2.9
-1.8
0.4
-13.0
-4.0
-1.5
6.1
6.9
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.5
-7.1
0.2
4.4
3.0
-5.2
-9.5
7.5
4.3
-2.1
4.0
5.5
3.4
11.6
1.6
8.4
3.7
10.1
-6.6
2.2
1.6
-1.0
-5.2
5.7
2.1
1.1
-5.8
5.5
2.0
5.6
-0.8
2.4
2.8
1.7
4.6
2.6
1.8
-0.3
-4.1
4.1
1.6
-
-3.6
3.7
-7.4
5.9
0.9
4.5
6.5
6.0
1.4
1.9
-3.1
3.9
-2.4
3.7
2.4
2.6
3.1
2.2
-2.2
2.8
-
34
Asia-Pacific
China
Economic assumptions
GDP growth
Inflation
Home currency
Home currency
Population
%
%
usd
aud
mill.
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
12.7
1.5
7.97
6.00
1 318
14.2
4.8
7.61
6.37
1 326
9.6
5.8
6.95
5.92
1 334
9.1
-0.7
6.83
5.40
1 343
10.3
3.3
6.77
6.22
1 352
9.2
5.4
6.46
6.67
1 362
7.8
2.6
6.31
6.54
1 371
8.2
3.2
6.23
6.42
1 380
8.0
3.5
6.15
6.11
1 389
7.7
3.2
6.16
6.11
1 398
Sources: IMF IFS; Consensus Forecasts, March 2013
Currencies are year average, based on quarterly data
Economic outlook
Market performance
Economic growth is expected to increase 8.2 per cent and
8.0 per cent in 2013 and 2014, respectively – lower than the
10 year long-run average of 10.4 per cent. In the medium to
longer term, the Chinese economy is forecast to increase at
an average annual rate of 7.1 per cent – lower than the
long-run average.
In 2012, visitor arrivals increased 15.5 per cent to
626,100 compared with 2011, and visitor nights
increased 7.3 per cent to 29 million in the same
period. Over the first eight months in 2012-13,
arrivals have increased 16.3 per cent–
11.3 percentage points higher than the growth of
total inbound arrivals.
The Chinese Renminbi is expected to appreciate against
the Australian dollar making Australia a more attractive
destination for visitors from China.
Market outlook
Direct air capacity is expected to increase 22 per cent in
2012-13, higher than its 10 year long-run average of
18.2 per cent, and then 11.1 per cent in 2013-14. In the
medium to longer term, air capacity is expected to grow at
an average annual rate of about 8.2 per cent, lower than
the long-run average.
Visitor arrivals from China are now forecast to rise
15.9 per cent and 10.4 per cent to 676,100 in 2012-13 and
746,200 in 2013-14 respectively. This revision represents a
difference of 57,000 more visitors. In the longer term to
2021-22, average annual growth of 6.4 per cent to
1.1 million is expected. Visitor nights are now forecast to
rise 15.6 per cent and 10.1 per cent to 31 million nights in
2012-13 and 34 million nights in 2013-14 respectively, and
to 56 million nights in 2021-22. Visitor expenditure is
forecast to rise 16.5 per cent in 2012-13 to $4.5 billion. In
the longer term to 2021-22, average annual growth of
7.1 per cent is forecast to reach $7.6 billion representing an
upward revision of $197 million.
35
In the first eight months of 2012-13, Holiday,
Employment, Visiting Friends/Relatives (VFR) and
Business increased 26 per cent, 26 per cent,
18.6 per cent and 7.7 per cent respectively, while
Education decreased 3.4 per cent.
In the first six months of 2012-13, average length of
stay increased 0.5 per cent to 42 nights per trip
while total nights in hotels, motels, guesthouses
and serviced apartments increased 8.3 per cent to
1.2 million compared with the same period in
2011-12.
In the first six months of 2012-13, expenditure as
defined by Total Inbound Tourism Expenditure
(TITE) increased 22 per cent to $1,957 million
compared with the same period in the previous
financial year, while leisure expenditure increased
by 17.4 per cent to $761million in the same period.
Table 14
International visitor arrivals: China
Business
VFRa
Holiday
Otherd
Total
Total
change
'000
Average
nights
Total
Share of
nights in Nights in
nights HMGSA
b
TITEc
TITE
HMGSA
Total
per visitor
million
per cent
million
$ million
$
27.8
30.3
40.2
41.7
39.6
40.6
45.1
42.5
49.5
57.1
51.6
46.1
45.9
45.8
46.4
46.8
47.9
48.5
49.2
49.3
50.5
51.1
4.0
5.2
7.1
9.1
10.9
11.9
15.3
15.9
17.7
22.5
25.8
26.9
31.0
34.2
37.2
39.6
42.7
45.0
47.5
49.5
52.8
55.5
16.7
14.9
10.6
10.4
13.9
13.7
11.7
13.0
8.3
7.6
8.3
9.2
9.1
9.5
9.3
9.1
8.8
8.6
8.4
8.3
8.1
7.9
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.9
1.5
1.6
1.8
2.1
1.5
1.7
2.1
2.5
2.8
3.2
3.5
3.6
3.8
3.9
4.0
4.1
4.3
4.4
1 031
1 258
1 349
1 542
1 913
1 875
2 050
2 493
2 901
3 112
3 610
3 853
4 487
4 845
5 228
5 526
5 925
6 228
6 553
6 812
7 263
7 631
7 189
7 300
7 614
7 109
6 970
6 414
6 058
6 645
8 102
7 899
7 223
6 608
6 637
6 493
6 528
6 522
6 658
6 716
6 788
6 781
6 953
7 030
14.5
8.3
23.9
-4.8
18.0
10.3
-3.7
11.5
0.4
12.0
-4.7
6.8
13.5
1.8
7.2
8.8
0.8
9.7
-0.8
8.8
9.0
0.2
3.2
6.4
4.1
1.3
5.4
-2.2
3.1
5.2
1.1
17.3
15.2
15.4
13.0
4.3
17.8
-4.7
12.3
11.8
-1.0
7.3
6.4
6.8
6.4
1.1
7.5
-1.5
5.9
7.1
0.6
per cent
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22
Compound annual
growth rate (%)
39
36
38
51
62
67
73
71
46
53
66
63
70
74
79
84
87
90
93
96
99
102
18
19
19
24
28
34
40
46
52
67
82
96
114
128
139
149
158
165
172
179
186
194
57
70
74
91
120
132
158
177
171
165
226
290
351
393
420
440
458
473
489
505
521
536
23
31
35
41
50
58
65
78
86
104
120
128
136
145
156
169
181
193
205
219
232
247
143
172
177
217
274
292
338
375
358
394
500
583
676
746
801
847
890
927
965
1 005
1 044
1 085
2001/02-2006/07
14.9
15.8
17.6
16.2
2006/07-2011/12
-2.7
18.8
12.8
14.6
2011/12-2016/17
6.6
10.6
9.6
2016/17-2021/22
3.2
4.2
2001/02-2011/12
5.7
2011/12-2021/22
4.9
n.a.
20.1
2.8
22.4
26.5
6.5
15.8
10.9
-4.6
10.0
26.9
16.7
15.9
10.4
7.3
5.8
5.0
4.2
4.1
4.0
4.0
3.9
Numbers shaded are forecasts
a Visiting friends and relatives
b Hotels, motels, guesthouses, and serviced apartments
c Total Inbound Tourism Expenditure, real, base = Quarter 4 2012
d Other refers to education and employment visitors w ho stay in Australia for one year or less. On average, these visitors spend more and stay longer than the average tourist.
Historical estimates for international visitor nights have changed due to a slight change in the methodology
The sum of purpose of visit categories does not add to the total as the total includes estimates for those not reporting a purpose of visit to Australia
8000
0
Arrivals
Expenditure
2000-01
2003-04
2006-07
2009-10
2012-13
36
2015-16
2018-19
2021-22
0
200
2000
400
4000
Expenditure ($m)
Arrivals (000s)
600
800
6000
1000
1200
China - Arrivals, 000s (LHS) and Expenditure, $m (RHS), 2001-01 to 2021-22
Hong Kong
Economic assumptions
GDP growth
Inflation
Home currency
Home currency
Population
%
%
usd
aud
mill.
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
7.0
2.0
7.77
5.85
7.0
6.5
2.0
7.80
6.54
7.0
2.1
4.3
7.79
6.63
7.0
-2.5
0.6
7.75
6.13
7.1
6.8
2.3
7.77
7.14
7.1
4.9
5.3
7.78
8.04
7.1
1.4
4.1
7.76
8.03
7.2
3.5
4.0
7.77
8.01
7.2
4.1
4.2
7.78
7.73
7.2
4.2
3.4
7.78
7.72
7.2
Sources: IMF IFS; Consensus Forecasts, March 2013
Currencies are year average, based on quarterly data
Economic outlook
Market performance
Economic growth is expected to increase 3.5 per cent
and 4.1 per cent in 2013 and 2014 respectively–lower
than its 10-year long-run average of 4.5 per cent. In the
medium to longer term, the Hong Kong economy is
expected to increase at an average annual rate of
3.5 per cent–lower than its long-run average.
In 2012, visitor arrivals increased 6.2 per cent to
176,800 compared with 2011, and visitor nights
increased 0.3 per cent to 5.9 million in the same
period. Over the first eight months in 2012-13, arrivals
have increased 9 per cent – 4 percentage points
higher than the growth of total inbound arrivals.
The Hong Kong dollar is expected to appreciate against
the Australian dollar making Australia a more attractive
destination for visitors from Hong Kong.
In the first eight months of 2012-13, Holiday and VFR
increased 17 per cent and 11.5 per cent respectively,
while Employment, Education and Business
decreased 9.5 per cent, 6.2 per cent and 1.7 per cent
respectively.
Market outlook
Direct air capacity is expected to increase 5.0 per cent in
2012-13, higher than its 10 year long-run average of
4.4 per cent and then 2.1 per cent in 2013-14. In the
medium to longer term, air capacity is expected to
increase at an average annual rate of 1.5 per cent, lower
than the long-run average.
In the first six months of 2012-13, average length of
stay decreased 6.1 per cent to 31 nights per trip while
total nights in hotels, motels, guesthouses and
serviced apartments increased 17.3 per cent to
0.4 million compared with the same period in
2011-12.
Visitor arrivals from Hong Kong are now forecast to rise
8.7 per cent and 3.1 per cent to 183,500 in 2012-13 and
189,200 in 2013-14 respectively. This revision
represents a difference of 25,800 more visitors in
aggregate. In the longer term to 2021-22, average
annual growth of 3.2 per cent to 230,900 visitors is
expected. Visitor nights are now forecast to rise
9.4 per cent to 6.4 million in 2012-13 and then decrease
6.0 per cent to 6.0 million nights in 2013-14 and to
7.7 million nights in 2021-22. Visitor expenditure is
forecast to rise 3.0 per cent in 2012-13 to $826 million. In
the longer term to 2021-22, average annual growth of
2.4 per cent is forecast to $1.0 billion representing a
downward revision of $83 million.
In the first six months of 2012-13, expenditure as
defined by Total Inbound Tourism Expenditure (TITE)
decreased 2.2 per cent to $382 million in July to
December 2012 compared with the same period in
the previous financial year, while leisure expenditure
increased by 12.4 per cent to $206 million in the same
period.
37
Table 15
International visitor arrivals: Hong Kong
Business
VFRa
Holiday
Otherd
Total
Total
change
'000
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22
Compound annual
growth rate (%)
2001/02-2006/07
2006/07-2011/12
2011/12-2016/17
2016/17-2021/22
2001/02-2011/12
2011/12-2021/22
Average
TITEc
TITE
HMGSA
Total
per visitor
million
$ million
$
16.4
15.8
18.2
14.2
23.1
14.2
13.7
12.3
11.3
11.7
10.8
11.2
10.4
11.3
12.1
11.9
11.9
12.0
12.1
12.1
12.2
12.3
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.8
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.9
0.9
0.9
874
1 016
751
704
647
729
748
751
788
767
846
802
826
843
868
895
917
934
957
975
997
1 017
5 670
6 840
5 342
5 322
4 347
4 588
4 885
5 120
5 260
4 972
4 986
4 752
4 505
4 454
4 441
4 446
4 440
4 421
4 427
4 409
4 413
4 403
b
million
per cent
24.0
26.0
24.2
28.1
21.9
28.3
29.2
30.9
32.1
35.8
31.5
34.7
34.9
31.8
30.6
31.0
31.4
31.8
32.1
32.5
32.9
33.2
3.7
3.9
3.4
3.7
3.3
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.8
5.5
5.3
5.9
6.4
6.0
6.0
6.2
6.5
6.7
6.9
7.2
7.4
7.7
nights
per cent
n.a.
-3.6
-5.3
-6.0
12.6
6.6
-3.6
-4.2
2.2
3.0
9.9
-0.4
8.7
3.1
3.3
2.9
2.6
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.2
2.2
Share of
nights in Nights in
Total
nights HMGSA
20
17
16
17
19
21
23
24
21
24
26
26
25
26
27
28
29
30
30
31
32
33
29
28
29
32
37
40
38
36
38
38
44
41
45
46
47
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
85
72
64
61
69
74
67
62
64
64
72
74
85
87
90
92
94
96
98
100
101
103
15
16
16
15
17
20
21
21
22
23
22
22
23
23
25
26
28
29
30
31
33
34
154
149
141
132
149
159
153
147
150
154
170
169
183
189
196
201
207
211
216
221
226
231
6.2
5.8
-1.4
6.3
0.6
2.3
2.9
-2.8
0.0
-6.0
-6.5
1.7
1.6
2.1
0.5
2.0
3.5
5.6
-3.9
1.4
1.4
-0.5
2.5
4.0
4.9
5.0
4.1
-2.0
2.1
1.2
3.3
2.7
-1.3
2.6
1.9
1.9
4.2
2.3
1.1
3.4
0.6
4.0
2.1
-0.2
3.9
3.7
0.3
3.3
1.3
2.9
4.2
-3.4
0.7
-2.3
-3.6
2.5
2.9
3.4
4.6
3.2
-0.4
2.7
0.9
3.7
2.4
-0.8
Numbers shaded are forecasts
a Visiting friends and relatives
b Hotels, motels, guesthouses, and serviced apartments
c Total Inbound Tourism Expenditure, real, base = Quarter 4 2012
d Other refers to education and employment visitors w ho stay in Australia for one year or less. On average, these visitors spend more and stay longer than the average tourist.
Historical estimates for international visitor nights have changed due to a slight change in the methodology.
The sum of purpose of visit categories does not add to the total as the total includes estimates for those not reporting a purpose of visit to Australia
500
100
Arrivals
Expenditure
2000-01
2003-04
2006-07
2009-10
2012-13
38
2015-16
2018-19
2021-22
0
150
Arrivals (000s)
Expenditure ($m)
200
1000
250
1500
Hong Kong - Arrivals, 000s (LHS) and Expenditure, $m (RHS), 2001-01 to 2021-22
India
Economic assumptions
GDP growth
Inflation
Home currency
Home currency
Population
%
%
usd
aud
mill.
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
9.3
4.4
44.2
33.3
1 103
9.7
6.7
45.2
34.5
1 120
7.8
6.2
40.3
34.9
1 136
6.9
9.1
46.3
36.2
1 153
8.6
12.4
47.6
40.4
1 169
8.2
10.4
45.8
43.2
1 185
5.9
8.4
48.3
50.5
1 201
5.2
9.6
54.3
56.1
1 217
6.3
7.8
53.2
54.4
1 232
7.4
6.8
52.4
51.8
1 248
Sources: IMF IFS; Consensus Forecasts, March 2013
Currencies are year average, based on quarterly data.
Economic outlook
Market performance
Economic growth is expected to increase 5.2 per cent
and 6.3 per cent in 2013 and 2014 respectively–lower
than the 10 year long-run average of 7.8 per cent. In the
medium to longer term, the Indian economy is expected
to increase at an average annual rate of 7.3 per cent –
lower than the long-run average, placing downside risk to
the forecasts.
In 2012, Visitor arrivals increased 7.5 per cent to
159,300 compared with 2011.
Visitor nights
increased 3.7 per cent to 10.1 million in the same
period. Over the first eight months in 2012-13, arrivals
have increased 7.4 per cent–2.5 percentage points
higher than the growth of total inbound arrivals.
The Indian Rupee is expected to appreciate against the
Australian dollar making Australia a more attractive
destination for visitors from India.
In the first eight months of 2012-13, VFR, Holiday and
Employment increased 16.1 per cent, 13.7 per cent
and 8.1 per cent respectively while Education and
Business decreased 20 per cent and 0.9 per cent
respectively.
Market outlook
Currently there are no direct flights between India and
Australia. Visitors from India travel to Australia via the
Asian hubs including Bangkok, Hong Kong and
Singapore. The direct flights are expected to be resumed
in the first half of 2013-14.
Average length of stay increased 20 per cent to
66 nights per trip, while total nights in hotels, motels,
guesthouses and serviced apartments increased
17.2 per cent to 0.5 million compared with the same
period in 2011/12.
Visitor arrivals from India are now forecast to rise
7.5 per cent and 7.6 per cent to 163,800 in 2012-13 and
176,300 in 2013-14 respectively. This revision
represents a difference of 6500 more visitors in
aggregate. In the longer term to 2021-22, average
annual growth of 7.2 per cent to 306,100 visitors is
expected. Visitor nights are now forecast to rise 13.0 per
cent to 10 million in 2012-13 and then increase 9.1 per
cent to 10.9 million nights in 2013-14 and to 17.1 million
nights in 2021-22. Visitor expenditure is forecast to rise
19.8 per cent in 2012-13 to $867 million. In the longer
term to 2021-22, average annual growth of 10.9 per cent
is forecast to $2 billion, representing an upward revision
of $354 million.
Expenditure as defined by Total Inbound Tourism
Expenditure (TITE) increased 21 per cent to
$405 million in July to December 2012 compared with
the same period in the previous financial year, while
leisure expenditure increased by 16.7 per cent to
$135 million in the same period.
39
Table 16
International visitor arrivals: India
Business
VFRa
Holiday
Otherd
Total
'000
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22
Compound annual
growth rate (%)
2001/02-2006/07
2006/07-2011/12
2011/12-2016/17
2016/17-2021/22
2001/02-2011/12
2011/12-2021/22
Total
change
Average
nights
TITEc
Total
TITE
per visitor
million
per cent
million
$ million
$
50.8
38.2
45.5
31.6
39.4
43.7
50.0
53.1
61.1
61.3
67.4
58.1
61.0
61.9
60.7
59.6
58.8
58.2
57.6
57.0
56.5
56.0
2.3
1.8
1.9
1.7
2.3
3.5
4.4
5.7
7.4
8.0
9.7
8.9
10.0
10.9
11.6
12.2
13.0
13.7
14.5
15.3
16.2
17.1
8.4
12.9
10.3
19.0
19.9
19.0
17.2
19.9
12.8
8.9
12.0
10.2
9.9
9.9
10.0
10.1
10.1
10.1
10.1
10.0
10.0
10.0
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.5
0.7
0.8
1.1
0.9
0.7
1.2
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.5
1.6
1.7
464
351
290
218
348
401
459
740
859
804
960
724
867
1 000
1 092
1 196
1 313
1 434
1 567
1 710
1 864
2 030
10 166
7 416
7 025
4 056
5 871
5 082
5 220
6 875
7 132
6 191
6 647
4 751
5 294
5 675
5 728
5 823
5 961
6 090
6 224
6 360
6 496
6 633
per cent
n.a.
3.6
-12.8
30.5
10.1
33.2
11.5
22.4
11.9
7.8
11.2
5.5
7.5
7.6
8.1
7.7
7.3
7.0
6.9
6.8
6.7
6.7
Share of
Total nights in Nights in
nights HMGSA b HMGSA
10
9
9
12
13
20
22
27
26
26
29
28
28
29
30
32
34
36
38
40
42
44
9
7
8
9
12
15
19
24
32
43
47
54
61
65
69
73
76
79
83
87
90
94
15
17
12
16
19
22
23
27
26
25
27
29
33
37
42
46
51
56
61
66
72
78
9
8
8
13
12
20
23
28
36
36
39
38
40
43
47
52
57
62
68
74
81
88
46
47
41
54
59
79
88
108
120
130
144
152
164
176
191
205
220
236
252
269
287
306
20.2
21.8
6.5
24.3
13.2
5.5
19.5
5.9
26.6
5.5
-6.8
4.6
23.3
5.3
10.4
11.6
3.0
15.0
-9.9
3.7
9.5
-1.9
4.1
7.0
11.5
8.5
7.6
0.2
7.9
-0.3
7.6
12.6
4.6
5.2
4.4
8.9
8.9
6.8
-1.0
5.7
-0.2
5.6
9.1
2.2
12.1
22.5
5.9
17.1
12.4
4.3
17.2
-2.3
14.5
7.5
-4.4
4.7
5.7
10.2
8.7
7.2
-0.4
6.8
-0.2
6.6
10.9
3.4
Numbers shaded are forecasts
a Visiting friends and relatives
b Hotels, motels, guesthouses, and serviced apartments
c Total Inbound Tourism Expenditure, real, base = Quarter 4 2012
d Other refers to education and employment visitors w ho stay in Australia for one year or less. On average, these visitors spend more and stay longer than the average tourist.
Historical estimates for international visitor nights have changed due to a slight change in the methodology.
The sum of purpose of visit categories does not add to the total as the total includes estimates for those not reporting a purpose of visit to Australia
0
Arrivals
Expenditure
2000-01
2003-04
2006-07
2009-10
2012-13
40
2015-16
2018-19
2021-22
0
50
500
100
Arrivals (000s)
150
200
1000
1500
Expenditure ($m)
250
2000
300
350
2500
India - Arrivals, 000s (LHS) and Expenditure, $m (RHS), 2001-01 to 2021-22
Indonesia
Economic assumptions
GDP growth
Inflation
Home currency
Home currency
Population
%
%
usd
aud
mill.
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
5.5
13.1
9 171
6 905
233
6.3
6.4
9 131
7 655
236
6.0
9.8
9 673
8 157
239
4.6
4.8
10 417
8 162
242
6.2
5.1
9 092
8 350
244
6.5
5.4
8 769
9 050
247
6.2
4.3
9 364
9 696
249
6.2
5.1
9 705
9 998
252
6.2
5.1
9 616
9 547
255
6.3
5.3
9 515
9 439
257
Sources: IMF IFS; Consensus Forecasts, March 2013
Currencies are year average, based on quarterly data
Economic outlook
Market performance
Economic growth is expected to increase 6.2 per cent in
2013 and 2014 respectively–higher than the 10-year
long-run average of 5.7 per cent. In the medium to longer
term, the Indonesian economy is expected to increase at
an average annual rate of 6.1 per cent–higher than the
long-run average, placing upside risk to the forecasts.
In 2012, visitor arrivals increased 3.7 per cent to
145,500 compared with 2011.
Visitor nights
decreased 1.4 per cent to 4.7 million in the same
period. Over the first eight months in 2012-13, arrivals
have increased 3.8 per cent–1.1 percentage points
lower than the growth for total inbound arrivals.
The Indonesian Rupiah is expected to depreciate against
the Australian dollar making Australia a less attractive
destination for visitors from Indonesia.
Market outlook
Direct air capacity is expected to decrease 3.5 per cent
in 2012-13 before picking up by 4.3 per cent in 2013-14,
lower than its 10-year long-run average of 10.0 per cent.
In the medium to longer term, air capacity is expected to
increase at an average annual rate of 4.8 per cent–lower
than the long-run average.
Visitor arrivals from Indonesia are now forecast to rise
3.6 per cent and 7.3 per cent to 146,700 in 2012-13 and
157,400 in 2013-14 respectively. This revision
represents a difference of 5,700 fewer visitors in
aggregate. In the longer term to 2021-22, average
annual growth of 5.5 per cent to 242,400 visitors is
expected. Visitor nights are now forecast to rise 10.4 per
cent and 9.4 per cent to 4.9 million nights in 2012-13 and
5.4 million nights in 2013-14 respectively, and to
8.9 million nights in 2021-22. Visitor expenditure is
forecast to decrease 5.8 per cent in 2012-13 to
$620 million. In the longer term to 2021-22, average
annual growth of 3.4 per cent is forecast to $923 million,
representing a downward revision of $215 million.
41
In the first eight months of 2012-13, Business, Visiting
Friends and Relatives, Holiday and Education
increased 11.6 per cent, 9.7 per cent, 3.8 per cent
and 2.8 per cent respectively, while Employment
decreased 27 per cent.
In the first six months of 2012-13, average length of
stay increased 6.9 per cent to 30 nights per trip while
the total night in hotels, motels, guesthouses and
serviced apartments increased 3.3 per cent to
217,000 in the same period compared with the same
period in 2011-12.
In the first six months of 2012-13, expenditure as
defined by Total Inbound Tourism Expenditure (TITE)
decreased 4.7 per cent to $322 million compared with
the same period in the previous financial year, while
leisure expenditure decreased 23 per cent to
$134 million in the same period.
Table 17
International visitor arrivals: Indonesia
Business
VFRa
Holiday
Otherd
Total
Total
change
'000
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22
Compound annual
growth rate (%)
2001/02-2006/07
2006/07-2011/12
2011/12-2016/17
2016/17-2021/22
2001/02-2011/12
2011/12-2021/22
11
9
8
10
10
10
12
14
12
15
17
17
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
16
13
14
14
14
15
14
15
16
21
22
22
25
26
28
30
32
33
35
37
38
40
5.7
7.2
Average
nights
Total
Share of
nights in Nights in
nights HMGSA
b
TITEc
TITE
HMGSA
Total
per visitor
million
per cent
million
$ million
$
37.5
31.3
31.6
41.3
34.4
34.1
36.7
35.7
34.2
38.4
39.3
31.5
33.5
34.2
34.5
35.0
35.3
35.6
35.8
36.1
36.4
36.7
3.7
3.0
2.7
3.8
2.8
2.8
3.1
3.3
3.3
4.5
5.2
4.5
4.9
5.4
5.8
6.3
6.7
7.1
7.5
7.9
8.4
8.9
6.9
9.4
7.1
7.4
12.1
12.7
10.9
10.8
13.2
8.6
11.9
11.7
10.8
11.5
11.8
12.0
11.9
11.9
11.9
11.9
11.9
11.8
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.9
0.9
1.0
1.1
639
586
509
546
431
435
418
521
476
521
638
659
620
617
661
705
741
775
810
847
884
923
6 505
6 196
5 862
5 968
5 234
5 322
4 906
5 594
4 972
4 407
4 795
4 653
4 229
3 920
3 922
3 933
3 915
3 890
3 868
3 848
3 827
3 807
-2.1
3.2
1.1
2.9
4.0
-6.5
-4.6
10.7
-3.0
7.3
1.4
8.9
9.5
-1.1
6.0
2.3
8.5
0.5
9.0
2.4
-3.4
6.8
5.1
0.8
5.9
-0.2
5.7
4.5
-0.6
5.4
4.0
4.1
0.1
4.2
2.1
6.4
1.2
-2.8
5.6
6.0
5.5
1.6
7.2
0.2
7.3
3.4
-2.0
per cent
44
39
36
39
34
33
35
35
39
51
60
66
69
75
80
85
90
94
99
104
108
114
23
21
20
21
19
22
23
26
25
28
30
31
31
32
34
37
40
43
46
49
52
56
1.2
-2.1
1.3
9.6
13.4
6.7
6.3
7.3
6.4
5.2
3.8
5.0
4.8
6.4
5.3
5.0
6.1
98
95
87
91
82
82
85
93
96
118
133
142
147
157
169
179
189
199
209
220
231
242
n.a.
-3.7
-8.2
5.3
-10.0
-0.7
4.2
9.3
2.8
23.5
12.5
6.3
3.6
7.3
7.1
6.3
5.7
5.2
5.1
5.1
5.0
4.9
Numbers shaded are forecasts
a Visiting friends and relatives
b Hotels, motels, guesthouses, and serviced apartments
c Total Inbound Tourism Expenditure, real, base = Quarter 4 2012
d Other refers to education and employment visitors w ho stay in Australia for one year or less. On average, these visitors spend more and stay longer than the average tourist.
Historical estimates for international visitor nights have changed due to a slight change in the methodology.
The sum of purpose of visit categories does not add to the total as the total includes estimates for those not reporting a purpose of visit to Australia
800
400
100
Arrivals (000s)
150
600
Expenditure ($m)
200
250
1000
Indonesia - Arrivals, 000s (LHS) and Expenditure, $m (RHS), 2001-01 to 2021-22
2000-01
2003-04
2006-07
2009-10
2012-13
42
2015-16
2018-19
200
50
Arrivals
Expenditure
2021-22
Japan
Economic assumptions
GDP growth
Inflation
Home currency
Home currency
Population
%
%
usd
aud
mill.
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
1.7
0.2
116
88
127
2.2
0.1
118
99
127
-1.1
1.4
103
88
127
-5.5
-1.3
94
74
127
4.7
-0.7
88
81
127
-0.5
-0.3
80
82
126
1.9
0.0
80
83
126
1.2
0.0
92
94
125
1.2
1.8
92
92
125
1.0
0.9
92
92
124
Sources: IMF IFS; Consensus Forecasts, March 2013
Currencies are year average, based on quarterly data
Economic outlook
Market performance
Economic growth is expected to increase 1.2 per cent
and 1.2 per cent in 2013 and 2014, respectively,
consistent with the 10-year long-run average of
0.8 per cent. In the medium to longer term, the Japanese
economy is expected to increase at an average annual
rate of 1.0 per cent – slightly higher than the long-run
average.
In 2012, visitor arrivals increased 6.4 per cent to
353,900 compared with 2011.
Visitor nights
increased 31 per cent to 10.5 million in the same
period. Over the first eight months in 2012-13, arrivals
have increased 2.0 per cent–3 percentage points
lower than the growth for the total inbound arrivals.
The Japanese Yen is expected to depreciate against the
Australian dollar, making Australia a less attractive
destination for visitors from Japan.
In the first eight months of 2012-13, Employment,
Visiting Friends and Relatives (VFR), Education and
Holiday increased 161 per cent, 6.4 per cent,
2.2 per cent and 0.5 per cent, while Business
decreased 6.7 per cent.
Market outlook
Direct air capacity is expected to 11.4 per cent and
6.1 per cent in 2012-13 and 2013-14, respectively, much
higher than its 10 year long-run average of 6.0 per cent
declining. In the medium to longer term, air capacity is
expected to increase at an average annual rate of
3.7 per cent, higher than the long-run average.
In the first six months of 2012-13, average length of
stay increased 29 per cent to 30 nights per trip, while
total nights in hotels, motels, guesthouses and
serviced apartments increased 12.6 per cent to
746,000 compared with the same period in 2011-12.
In the first six months of 2012-13, expenditure as
defined by Total Inbound Tourism Expenditure (TITE)
increased 13.9 per cent to $880 million compared with
the same period in the previous financial year, while
leisure expenditure increased by 10.6 per cent to
$589 million in the same period.
Visitor arrivals from Japan are now forecast to rise
2.0 per cent and 3.9 per cent to 351,100 in 2012-13 and
364,800 in 2013-14 respectively. This revision
represents a difference of 4,700 more visitors in
aggregate. In the longer term to 2021-22, average
annual growth of 1.7 per cent to 408,200 is expected.
Visitor nights are now forecast to rise 2.5 per cent and
0.7 per cent to 9.2 million nights in 2012-13 and
9.3 million nights in 2013-14 respectively, and to
9.5 million nights in 2021-22. Visitor expenditure is
forecast to rise 5.4 per cent in 2012-13 to $1.6 billion. In
the longer term to 2021-22, average annual growth of
0.8 per cent is forecast to $1.6 billion, representing an
upward revision of $1 million.
43
Table 18
International visitor arrivals: Japan
Business
VFRa
Holiday
Otherd
Total
Total
change
'000
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22
Compound annual
growth rate (%)
2001/02-2006/07
2006/07-2011/12
2011/12-2016/17
2016/17-2021/22
2001/02-2011/12
2011/12-2021/22
37
34
35
42
37
43
46
41
36
34
37
36
35
35
37
38
38
39
39
40
40
41
26
25
30
34
34
32
34
32
29
32
33
31
33
34
35
36
36
37
37
37
38
38
597
410
504
541
571
548
482
404
301
264
257
237
238
249
255
259
263
266
270
273
276
280
Average
nights
per cent
38
44
45
51
44
48
46
42
34
32
35
38
43
45
45
46
46
47
47
48
48
48
724
659
659
688
701
674
610
521
404
364
364
344
351
365
374
380
386
391
395
400
404
408
n.a.
-9.0
-0.1
4.4
1.9
-3.8
-9.5
-14.6
-22.6
-9.9
0.1
-5.4
2.0
3.9
2.4
1.8
1.4
1.2
1.2
1.1
1.1
1.0
Total
Share of
nights in Nights in
TITEc
TITE
HMGSA
Total
per visitor
per cent
million
$ million
$
35.5
31.8
33.2
25.7
25.5
22.8
19.4
19.5
17.1
17.3
15.2
12.9
13.4
13.6
13.8
13.9
14.0
14.2
14.4
14.6
14.8
14.9
3.1
2.8
2.9
2.8
2.7
2.7
2.3
2.0
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.2
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.4
4 140
3 351
3 103
3 039
3 043
3 186
2 405
2 036
1 953
1 529
1 474
1 470
1 550
1 536
1 558
1 567
1 575
1 579
1 584
1 588
1 591
1 593
5 716
5 083
4 712
4 421
4 341
4 724
3 941
3 906
4 838
4 203
4 048
4 269
4 414
4 210
4 170
4 121
4 081
4 043
4 008
3 974
3 938
3 903
-5.0
b
million
8.8
8.9
8.7
10.9
10.7
11.7
12.0
10.4
8.7
7.9
8.4
9.0
9.2
9.3
9.4
9.4
9.5
9.5
9.5
9.5
9.5
9.5
nights HMGSA
12.1
13.5
13.2
15.8
15.3
17.3
19.6
20.0
21.4
21.8
23.0
26.0
26.2
25.4
25.1
24.8
24.5
24.3
24.0
23.8
23.5
23.3
5.8
6.2
3.3
1.2
-1.5
7.7
6.0
-9.4
-3.9
-6.4
-4.4
-1.7
-13.3
-3.7
-10.8
5.9
-5.6
-7.8
-13.0
-9.4
1.6
1.0
3.2
2.1
3.9
2.3
-1.2
1.1
1.7
2.8
1.4
-0.9
1.2
0.7
1.2
0.8
1.1
-1.0
0.1
1.2
1.3
0.2
-0.9
0.6
2.2
-5.4
-1.3
-6.3
6.8
0.0
-8.6
-8.6
-7.9
-1.7
1.1
1.9
1.7
2.4
1.7
-1.1
0.6
1.5
2.1
0.8
-0.9
Numbers shaded are forecasts
a Visiting friends and relatives
b Hotels, motels, guesthouses, and serviced apartments
c Total Inbound Tourism Expenditure, real, base = Quarter 4 2012
d Other refers to education and employment visitors w ho stay in Australia for one year or less. On average, these visitors spend more and stay longer than the average tourist.
Historical estimates for international visitor nights have changed due to a slight change in the methodology.
The sum of purpose of visit categories does not add to the total as the total includes estimates for those not reporting a purpose of visit to Australia
5000
0
Arrivals
Expenditure
2000-01
2003-04
2006-07
2009-10
2012-13
44
2015-16
2018-19
2021-22
1000
2000
500
Arrivals (000s)
3000
Expenditure ($m)
1000
4000
1500
Japan - Arrivals, 000s (LHS) and Expenditure, $m (RHS), 2001-01 to 2021-22
Malaysia
Economic assumptions
GDP growth
Inflation
Home currency
Home currency
Population
%
%
usd
aud
mill.
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
5.6
3.6
3.67
2.76
24.6
6.3
2.0
3.44
2.88
25.1
4.8
5.4
3.33
2.82
25.5
-1.5
0.6
3.52
2.78
25.9
7.2
1.7
3.22
2.96
26.4
5.1
3.2
3.06
3.16
26.8
5.3
1.7
3.09
3.20
27.3
5.1
2.2
3.05
3.14
27.7
5.2
2.8
3.00
2.98
28.2
5.4
3.1
3.02
2.99
28.7
Sources: IMF IFS; Consensus Forecasts, March 2013
Currencies are year average, based on quarterly data
Economic outlook
Market performance
Economic growth is expected to increase 5.1 per cent
and 5.2 per cent in 2013 and 2014 respectively,
consistent with the 10-year long-run average of
5.1 per cent. In the medium to longer term, the
Malaysian economy is expected to increase at an
average annual rate of 4.8 per cent –slightly lower than
the long-run average.
In 2012, visitor arrivals increased 8.8 per cent to
262,500 compared with 2011, while visitor nights
increased 10.2 per cent to 7.5 million in the same
period. Over the first eight months in 2012-13, arrivals
have increased 14.9 per cent–10 percentage points
higher than the growth for total inbound arrivals.
The Malaysian Ringgit is expected to appreciate against
the Australian dollar, making Australia a more attractive
destination for visitors from Malaysia.
In the first eight months of 2012-13, VFR, Holiday and
Business increased 25 per cent, 19.6 per cent and
3.0 per cent respectively, while Employment and
Education decreased 10.2 per cent and 4.2 per cent
respectively.
Market outlook
Direct air capacity is expected to increase 21 per cent
and 10.1 per cent in 2012-13 and 2013-14 respectively,
higher than its 10-year long-run average of 6.7 per cent.
In the medium to longer term, air capacity is expected to
increase at an average annual rate of 4.6 per cent, lower
than the long-run average.
In the first six months of 2012-13, average length of
stay increased 1.7 per cent to 26 nights per trip, while
total nights in hotels, motels, guesthouses and
serviced apartments increased 44 per cent to
606, 000 compared with the same period in 2011-12.
In the first six months of 2012-13, expenditure as
defined by Total Inbound Tourism Expenditure (TITE)
increased 5.5 per cent to $512 million compared with
the same period in the previous financial year, while
leisure expenditure increased by 7.2 per cent to
$236 million in the same period.
Visitor arrivals from Malaysia are now forecast to rise
13.9 per cent and 9.1 per cent to 276,900 in 2012-13 and
302,100 in 2013-14 respectively. This revision
represents a difference of 74,400 more visitors in
aggregate. In the longer term to 2021-22, average
annual growth of 4.7 per cent to 384,100 is expected.
Visitor nights are now forecast to rise 15.8 per cent and
13.3 per cent to 8.0 million nights in 2012-13 and
9.1 million nights in 2013-14 respectively, and to
13.3 million nights in 2021-22. Visitor expenditure is
forecast to rise 9.6 per cent in 2012-13 to $1.1 billion. In
the longer term to 2021-22, average annual growth of
3.9 per cent is forecast, to $1.5 billion representing an
upward revision of $59 million.
45
Table 19
International visitor arrivals: Malaysia
Business
VFRa
Holiday
Otherd
Total
Total
Average
change
'000
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22
Compound annual
growth rate (%)
2001/02-2006/07
2006/07-2011/12
2011/12-2016/17
2016/17-2021/22
14
13
13
15
16
16
18
20
18
19
21
24
24
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
2001/02-2011/12
2011/12-2021/22
27
24
26
31
33
29
31
34
41
47
53
52
63
69
72
75
77
79
82
84
87
89
nights
17
19
18
21
23
25
28
27
33
35
37
35
37
39
41
44
46
48
51
53
56
58
148
154
142
175
169
153
157
166
195
214
244
243
277
302
314
324
334
344
354
364
374
384
n.a.
3.9
-7.7
23.1
-3.6
-9.8
3.0
5.7
17.5
9.9
13.8
-0.3
13.9
9.1
3.9
3.3
3.1
2.9
2.9
2.8
2.8
2.7
nights HMGSA
b
TITEc
TITE
HMGSA
Total
per visitor
million
per cent
million
$ million
$
24.5
22.8
23.0
25.8
26.8
32.6
33.9
33.6
34.5
31.0
28.7
28.5
29.0
30.1
30.9
31.5
31.9
32.5
33.0
33.5
34.0
34.5
3.6
3.5
3.3
4.5
4.5
5.0
5.3
5.6
6.7
6.6
7.0
6.9
8.0
9.1
9.7
10.2
10.7
11.2
11.7
12.2
12.7
13.3
15.0
13.5
13.1
14.5
15.9
11.1
11.8
11.1
11.2
10.4
10.8
12.1
13.1
12.8
12.5
12.1
12.0
11.9
11.8
11.8
11.7
11.6
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.8
0.7
0.8
0.8
1.1
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.3
1.3
1.4
1.4
1.5
1.5
692
730
663
802
720
721
772
939
967
1 027
1 048
1 046
1 147
1 249
1 306
1 356
1 386
1 414
1 443
1 471
1 501
1 530
4 664
4 732
4 656
4 575
4 259
4 729
4 918
5 656
4 957
4 793
4 299
4 303
4 140
4 136
4 163
4 181
4 147
4 112
4 078
4 044
4 015
3 985
per cent
87
83
74
99
90
80
77
82
99
107
125
126
146
161
167
171
175
180
184
188
192
196
Share of
nights in Nights in
Total
6.6
5.0
-1.4
8.5
0.4
8.2
8.6
-2.7
5.7
1.1
0.8
5.5
11.1
10.2
4.5
9.1
-3.4
5.5
0.6
6.1
6.2
-2.6
4.1
8.3
6.9
5.7
6.6
2.3
9.0
-0.2
8.8
5.8
-0.7
3.0
3.0
2.3
4.9
2.8
1.6
4.4
-0.8
3.6
2.0
-0.8
6.0
8.0
4.2
6.5
4.7
2.3
7.0
-1.1
5.9
3.7
-0.9
3.6
5.6
4.6
5.3
4.7
1.9
6.7
-0.5
6.2
3.9
-0.8
Numbers shaded are forecasts
a Visiting friends and relatives
b Hotels, motels, guesthouses, and serviced apartments
c Total Inbound Tourism Expenditure, real, base = Quarter 4 2012
d Other refers to education and employment visitors w ho stay in Australia for one year or less. On average, these visitors spend more and stay longer than the average tourist.
Historical estimates for international visitor nights have changed due to a slight change in the methodology
The sum of purpose of visit categories does not add to the total as the total includes estimates for those not reporting a purpose of visit to Australia
500
100
Arrivals
Expenditure
2000-01
2003-04
2006-07
2009-10
2012-13
46
2015-16
2018-19
2021-22
0
200
Arrivals (000s)
300
1000
Expenditure ($m)
400
1500
500
2000
Malaysia - Arrivals, 000s (LHS) and Expenditure, $m (RHS), 2001-01 to 2021-22
New Zealand
Economic assumptions
GDP growth
Inflation
Home currency
Home currency
Population
%
%
usd
aud
mill.
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2.9
3.4
1.54
1.16
4.1
3.4
2.4
1.36
1.14
4.2
-0.8
4.0
1.42
1.19
4.2
-1.6
2.1
1.60
1.25
4.2
1.7
2.3
1.39
1.27
4.3
1.5
4.0
1.27
1.31
4.3
2.3
1.1
1.24
1.28
4.3
2.6
1.4
1.21
1.24
4.4
2.9
2.2
1.25
1.24
4.4
2.5
2.5
1.24
1.23
4.5
Sources: IMF IFS; Consensus Forecasts, March 2013
Currencies are year average, based on quarterly data
Economic outlook
Market performance
Economic growth is expected to increase 2.6 per cent and
2.9 per cent in 2013 and 2014 respectively–higher than the
10 year long-run average of 2.1 per cent. In the medium to
longer term, the New Zealand economy is expected to
increase at an average annual rate of 2.6 per cent–higher
than the long-run average.
In 2012, visitor arrivals increased 2.4 per cent to
1,200,700 compared with 2011. Visitor nights
increased 2.0 per cent to 17 million in the same
period. Over the first eight months in 2012-13,
arrivals
have
increased
1.7
per
cent–
3.2 percentage points lower than growth for total
inbound arrivals during the same period.
The New Zealand dollar is expected to appreciate against
the Australian dollar making Australia a more attractive
destination for visitors from New Zealand.
.
Market outlook
Direct air capacity is expected to remain flat in 2012-13
before picking up to an increase of 1.0 per cent in 2013-14,
much lower than its 10-year long-run average of
5.2 per cent. In the medium to longer term, air capacity is
expected to increase at an average annual rate of
2.4 per cent, lower than the long-run average.
Visitor arrivals from New Zealand are now forecast to rise
1.6 per cent and 1.7 per cent to 1,210,600 in 2012-13 and
1,231,500 in 2013-14 respectively. This revision represents
a difference of 21,400 more visitors in aggregate. In the
longer term to 2021-22, average annual growth of
1.9 per cent to 1.4 million is expected. Visitor nights are
now forecast to rise 2.8 per cent to 17.2 million nights in
2012-13 and decrease 0.3 per cent to 17.1 million nights in
2013-14respectively, and to increase to 19.4 million nights
in 2021-22. Visitor expenditure is forecast to rise 2.4 per
cent in 2012-13 to $2.3 billion. In the longer term to
2021-22, average annual growth of 1.9 per cent is forecast
to $2.7 billion, representing an upward revision of
$194 million.
47
For the first eight months of 2012-13, Education and
VFR increased 11.5 per cent and 2.7 per cent
respectively, while Employment, Business and
Holiday decreased 8.7 per cent, 0.4 per cent and
0.4 per cent respectively.
In the first six months of 2012-13, average length of
stay increased 1.1 per cent to 14.8 nights per trip
while total nights in hotels, motels, guesthouses and
serviced apartments decreased 2.0 per cent to
1.9 million compared with the same period in
2011-12.
In the first six months of 2012-13, expenditure as
defined by Total Inbound Tourism Expenditure
(TITE) increased 1.3 per cent to $1.3 billion
compared with the same period in the previous
financial year, while leisure expenditure decreased
by 3.4 per cent to $800 million in the same period.
Table 20
International visitor arrivals: New Zealand
Business
VFRa
Holiday
Otherd
Total
Total
change
'000
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22
Compound annual
growth rate (%)
2001/02-2006/07
2006/07-2011/12
2011/12-2016/17
2016/17-2021/22
2001/02-2011/12
2011/12-2021/22
Average
nights
Total
Share of
nights in Nights in
nights HMGSA
b
TITEc
TITE
HMGSA
Total
per visitor
million
per cent
million
$ million
$
16.7
14.1
13.8
13.7
12.9
14.5
14.2
13.9
13.8
12.7
13.9
14.0
14.2
13.9
14.2
13.6
13.6
13.6
13.5
13.5
13.5
13.4
13.8
11.1
11.0
12.6
14.0
15.8
15.8
15.6
15.3
14.3
16.4
16.7
17.2
17.1
17.9
17.6
17.9
18.2
18.5
18.8
19.1
19.4
15.2
22.6
22.2
23.2
24.9
23.2
25.5
25.3
23.0
23.1
21.6
19.4
18.8
19.1
19.0
19.8
19.8
19.9
20.0
20.0
20.1
20.1
2.1
2.5
2.4
2.9
3.5
3.7
4.0
3.9
3.5
3.3
3.5
3.3
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.6
3.7
3.8
3.8
3.9
1 988
1 877
1 965
2 055
2 324
2 447
2 466
2 548
2 263
2 164
2 246
2 276
2 332
2 463
2 558
2 547
2 588
2 622
2 652
2 683
2 714
2 744
2 399
2 383
2 478
2 219
2 148
2 243
2 211
2 273
2 047
1 926
1 899
1 911
1 926
2 000
2 031
1 973
1 963
1 952
1 939
1 927
1 915
1 904
7.2
0.2
7.4
2.4
10.0
5.6
-1.5
1.3
-0.2
1.2
-5.3
-4.2
-1.6
-2.9
4.4
2.0
-0.7
1.4
0.4
1.8
2.6
0.5
1.9
3.2
1.8
-0.2
1.6
0.3
1.8
1.2
-0.6
6.3
3.8
8.6
4.2
0.0
4.2
-1.5
2.7
1.9
-2.2
2.1
1.8
3.8
1.9
-0.4
1.5
0.3
1.8
1.9
0.0
141
150
149
170
191
201
205
213
199
196
208
213
213
219
224
228
231
233
236
238
240
242
253
200
198
247
285
281
289
302
330
338
360
369
380
387
396
405
414
422
430
439
447
456
6.5
0.8
per cent
355
316
331
406
489
485
493
468
440
456
464
459
461
465
474
487
498
508
518
528
537
547
56
44
41
48
59
75
80
86
87
89
100
101
103
110
115
120
125
129
133
137
142
146
828
788
793
926
1 082
1 091
1 115
1 121
1 106
1 123
1 183
1 191
1 211
1 231
1 259
1 291
1 318
1 343
1 368
1 392
1 417
1 441
7.6
9.3
12.7
5.0
-1.4
4.7
1.6
2.3
1.7
0.9
2.0
3.6
1.3
n.a.
-4.9
0.7
16.8
16.8
0.8
2.2
0.6
-1.4
1.6
5.3
0.7
1.6
1.7
2.3
2.5
2.2
1.9
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.7
Numbers shaded are forecasts
a Visiting friends and relatives
b Hotels, motels, guesthouses, and serviced apartments
c Total Inbound Tourism Expenditure, real, base = Quarter 4 2012
d Other refers to education and employment visitors w ho stay in Australia for one year or less. On average, these visitors spend more and stay longer than the average tourist.
Historical estimates for international visitor nights have changed due to a slight change in the methodology
The sum of purpose of visit categories does not add to the total as the total includes estimates for those not reporting a purpose of visit to Australia
3000
2500
400
Arrivals
Expenditure
2000-01
2003-04
2006-07
2009-10
2012-13
48
2015-16
2018-19
2021-22
1500
600
800
2000
Expenditure ($m)
Arrivals (000s)
1000
1200
1400
1600
New Zealand - Arrivals, 000s (LHS) and Expenditure, $m (RHS), 2001-01 to 2021-22
Singapore
Economic assumptions
Singapore
GDP growth
Inflation
Home currency
Home currency
Population
%
%
usd
aud
mill.
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
8.6
1.0
1.59
1.20
4.5
8.5
2.1
1.51
1.26
4.6
1.8
6.5
1.42
1.20
4.6
-0.6
0.6
1.45
1.15
4.7
14.8
2.8
1.36
1.25
4.7
4.9
5.2
1.26
1.30
4.8
1.2
4.6
1.25
1.29
4.8
2.7
3.7
1.22
1.26
4.8
3.9
3.3
1.21
1.20
4.9
4.2
2.6
1.19
1.18
4.9
Sources: IMF IFS; Consensus Forecasts, March 2013
Currencies are year average, based on quarterly data
Economic outlook
Market performance
Economic growth is expected to increase 2.7 per cent and
3.9 per cent in 2013 and 2014 respectively–lower than the
10 year long-run average of 6.2 per cent. In the medium to
longer term, the Singaporean economy is expected to
increase at an average annual rate of 4.0 per cent–lower
than the long-run average.
In 2012, visitor arrivals increased 7.8 per cent to
343,500 compared with 2011. Visitor nights increased
11.8 per cent to 6.8 million in the same period. Over
the first eight months in 2012-13, arrivals have
increased 14.4 per cent–9.5 percentage points higher
than growth of total inbound arrivals.
The Singapore dollar is expected to appreciate against the
Australian dollar, making Australia a more attractive
destination for visitors from Singapore.
Market outlook
For the first eight months of 2012-13, Holiday, VFR
and Business increased 27 per cent, 19 per cent and
6.6 per cent respectively, while Education and
Employment increased 1.7 per cent and 0.1 per cent
respectively.
Direct air capacity is expected to increase 29.8 per cent and
15.1 per cent in 2012-13 and 2013-14 respectively–much
higher than its 10 year long-run average of 4 per cent. In
the medium to longer term, air capacity is expected to
increase at an average annual rate of 7.0 per cent–higher
than the long-run average.
In the first six months of 2012-13, average length of
stay increased 1.6 per cent to 18.8 nights per trip,
while the total nights in hotels, motels, guesthouses
and serviced apartments decreased 1.0 per cent to
0.75 million compared with the same period in
2011-12.
Visitor arrivals from Singapore are now forecast to rise
12.5 per cent and 4.8 per cent to 359,700 in 2012-13 and
376,900 in 2013-14 respectively. This revision represents a
difference of 67,300 more visitors in aggregate. In the
longer term to 2021-22, average annual growth of
3.7 per cent to 458,000 is expected. Visitor nights are now
forecast to rise 17.4 per cent and 4.9 per cent to 7.4 million
nights in 2012-13 and 7.8 million nights in 2013-14
respectively, and to 9.3 million nights in 2021-22. Visitor
expenditure is forecast to rise 1.3 per cent in 2012-13 to
$1.2 billion. In the longer term to 2021-22, average annual
growth of 2.1 per cent is forecast to $1.5 billion representing
a downward revision of $156 million.
In the first six months of 2012-13, expenditure as
defined by Total Inbound Tourism Expenditure (TITE)
increased 1.7 per cent to $613 million compared with
the same period in the previous financial year, while
leisure expenditure increased by 8.6 per cent to
$270 million in the same period.
49
Table 21
International visitor arrivals: Singapore
Business
VFRa
Otherd
Total
42
34
32
37
41
52
59
61
58
60
68
71
76
81
85
89
93
97
101
105
109
113
33
32
32
32
35
34
35
35
40
44
47
47
55
58
60
61
63
64
65
66
67
69
188
155
139
138
149
125
126
125
133
136
144
144
174
183
188
191
194
196
198
201
203
205
22
31
27
28
28
33
34
36
37
36
42
40
39
40
42
44
46
48
50
51
53
55
293
296
262
253
267
252
263
267
278
290
315
320
360
377
390
402
411
421
430
439
449
458
11.5
3.8
2.0
-4.0
2.0
6.3
2.6
3.2
5.5
5.8
6.2
3.9
1.9
7.6
4.7
Holiday
'000
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22
Compound annual
growth rate (%)
2001/02-2006/07
2006/07-2011/12
2011/12-2016/17
2016/17-2021/22
2001/02-2011/12
2011/12-2021/22
Total
change
Average
nights
Share of
Total nights in Nights in
nights HMGSA b HMGSA
TITEc
Total
TITE
per visitor
million
per cent
million
$ million
$
18.7
16.4
18.0
18.2
16.7
19.3
20.1
20.0
19.7
21.1
19.5
19.8
20.7
20.7
20.6
20.5
20.5
20.4
20.4
20.3
20.3
20.2
5.5
4.9
4.7
4.6
4.5
4.9
5.3
5.3
5.5
6.1
6.1
6.3
7.4
7.8
8.0
8.2
8.4
8.6
8.8
8.9
9.1
9.3
20.4
24.3
22.9
22.8
27.5
26.1
25.9
22.3
22.9
19.9
22.4
22.4
20.6
22.3
21.7
22.4
22.6
22.8
23.0
23.2
23.4
23.5
1.1
1.2
1.1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.2
1.3
1.2
1.4
1.4
1.5
1.7
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.0
2.1
2.1
2.2
1 243
1 285
1 195
912
912
910
991
1 165
1 107
1 109
1 231
1 218
1 234
1 228
1 287
1 336
1 366
1 392
1 417
1 444
1 469
1 494
4 238
4 343
4 567
3 611
3 410
3 613
3 763
4 369
3 978
3 824
3 902
3 812
3 431
3 257
3 297
3 327
3 322
3 308
3 296
3 285
3 274
3 262
-2.3
4.1
1.8
1.3
3.0
-5.0
-2.8
3.9
-0.3
3.7
-2.9
0.7
4.2
0.3
2.7
5.2
0.6
5.8
0.2
6.0
2.3
-2.7
1.2
3.6
2.2
-0.2
1.9
0.8
2.8
1.8
-0.4
4.1
-0.7
2.6
0.8
1.9
2.7
-0.8
1.9
-0.5
-1.3
3.8
3.6
3.1
3.7
0.2
3.9
0.5
4.4
2.1
-1.5
per cent
n.a.
0.8
-11.5
-3.5
5.9
-5.8
4.6
1.2
4.5
4.1
8.8
1.3
12.5
4.8
3.6
2.9
2.4
2.3
2.2
2.2
2.1
2.1
Numbers shaded are forecasts
a Visiting friends and relatives
b Hotels, motels, guesthouses, and serviced apartments
c Total Inbound Tourism Expenditure, real, base = Quarter 4 2012
d Other refers to education and employment visitors w ho stay in Australia for one year or less. On average, these visitors spend more and stay longer than the average tourist.
Historical estimates for international visitor nights have changed due to a slight change in the methodology
The sum of purpose of visit categories does not add to the total as the total includes estimates for those not reporting a purpose of visit to Australia
200
Arrivals
Expenditure
2000-01
2003-04
2006-07
2009-10
2012-13
50
2015-16
2018-19
2021-22
800
250
1000
300
1200
Expenditure ($m)
Arrivals (000s)
350
400
1400
450
500
1600
Singapore - Arrivals, 000s (LHS) and Expenditure, $m (RHS), 2001-01 to 2021-22
South Korea
Economic assumptions
GDP growth
Inflation
Home currency
Home currency
Population
%
%
usd
aud
mill.
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
5.2
2.2
955
719
48.2
5.1
2.5
929
778
48.3
2.3
4.6
1099
920
48.4
0.3
2.8
1277
1001
48.6
6.3
2.9
1157
1062
48.7
3.6
4.0
1108
1143
48.8
2.0
2.2
1127
1167
48.9
3.0
2.5
1062
1094
49.0
3.7
2.8
1040
1032
49.1
4.0
2.9
1026
1018
49.1
Sources: IMF IFS; Consensus Forecasts, March 2013
Currencies are year average, based on quarterly data
Economic outlook
Market performance
Economic growth is expected to increase 3.0 per cent
and 3.7 per cent in 2013 and 2014–respectively, broadly
consistent with the 10-year long-run average of
3.6 per cent. In the medium to longer term, the South
Korean economy is expected to increase at an average
annual rate of 3.6 per cent, the same as the long-run
average.
In 2012, visitor arrivals decreased 0.6 per cent to
196,700 compared with 2011.
Visitor nights
decreased 8.7 per cent to 12.7 million in the same
period. Over the first eight months in 2012-13, arrivals
have decreased 4.1 per cent–9.0 percentage points
lower than growth for total inbound arrivals.
The South Korean Won is expected to appreciate
against the Australian dollar, making Australia a more
attractive destination for visitors from South Korea.
In the first eight months of 2012-13, VFR increased
1.3 per cent, while Education, Employment, Holiday
and Business decreased 14.9 per cent, 6.1 per cent,
4.4 per cent and 0.2 per cent respectively.
Market outlook
In the first six months of 2012-13, average length of
stay decreased 7.7 per cent to 59 nights per trip while
total nights in hotels, motels, guesthouses and
serviced apartments decreased 8.8 per cent to
0.36 million compared with the same period in
2011-12.
Direct air capacity is expected to decrease 4 per cent in
2012-13 before a likely pick-up to 2.9 per cent in
2013-14–higher than its 10-year long-run average of
2.6 per cent. In the medium to longer term, air capacity is
expected to increase at an average annual rate of
2.3 per cent–lower than the long-run average.
In the first six months of 2012-13, expenditure as
defined by Total Inbound Tourism Expenditure (TITE)
decreased 13.0 per cent to $555 million in July to
December 2012 compared with the same period in
the previous financial year, while leisure expenditure
decreased by 15.6 per cent to $298 million in the
same period.
Visitor arrivals from South Korea are now forecast to
decrease 4.9 per cent in 2012-13 before picking up to
2.2 per cent in 2013-14 to 189,500 in 2012-13 and
193,600 in 2013-14 respectively. This revision
represents a difference of 15,200 fewer visitors in
aggregate. In the longer term to 2021-22, average
annual growth of 2.4 per cent to 253,400 is expected.
Visitor nights are now forecast to decrease 9.6 per cent
to 12.1 million nights in 2012-13 and increase
1.1 per cent to 12.2 million in 2013-14, and to
18.8 million nights in 2021-22. Visitor expenditure is
forecast to decrease 5.6 per cent in 2012-13 to
$1.2 billion. In the longer term to 2021-22, average
annual growth of 2.0 per cent is forecast to $1.6 billion,
representing a downward revision of $102 million.
51
Table 22
International visitor arrivals: South Korea
Business
VFRa
Holiday
Otherd
Total
Total
change
'000
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22
Compound annual
growth rate (%)
2001/02-2006/07
2006/07-2011/12
2011/12-2016/17
2016/17-2021/22
2001/02-2011/12
2011/12-2021/22
Average
nights
23
17
19
21
24
23
24
27
24
25
26
26
26
27
28
29
30
30
31
32
33
34
97
103
121
140
158
163
181
148
113
115
127
121
114
116
121
126
130
135
139
143
148
152
24
26
28
32
33
41
47
43
41
40
35
35
32
32
34
35
37
39
40
42
44
46
165
181
196
216
237
243
271
236
193
196
205
199
189
194
201
209
216
224
231
238
246
253
n.a.
10.0
8.1
10.2
10.0
2.4
11.5
-12.7
-18.2
1.5
4.4
-2.6
-4.9
2.2
4.0
3.8
3.6
3.3
3.3
3.2
3.2
3.1
nights HMGSA
b
TITEc
TITE
HMGSA
Total
per visitor
million
per cent
million
$ million
$
38.3
33.6
28.8
29.0
30.3
42.1
46.9
48.9
71.6
74.6
65.6
67.0
63.7
63.0
64.7
66.0
67.3
68.7
70.1
71.5
72.9
74.3
6.3
6.1
5.6
6.3
7.2
10.2
12.7
11.5
13.8
14.6
13.4
13.3
12.1
12.2
13.0
13.8
14.6
15.4
16.2
17.0
17.9
18.8
7.4
9.8
11.2
12.4
11.3
11.6
9.6
9.4
5.4
4.9
5.0
5.5
5.8
6.3
7.1
6.5
6.1
5.7
5.3
4.9
4.6
4.3
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.8
0.8
1.2
1.2
1.1
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.8
1 031
1 000
1 047
1 050
1 181
1 410
1 693
1 478
1 419
1 271
1 296
1 316
1 242
1 268
1 319
1 361
1 402
1 439
1 479
1 519
1 558
1 598
6 265
5 525
5 348
4 866
4 979
5 805
6 254
6 257
7 347
6 484
6 332
6 606
6 556
6 547
6 551
6 515
6 479
6 437
6 405
6 373
6 338
6 304
2.5
per cent
16
14
12
14
14
15
17
17
13
14
15
16
16
16
17
17
18
18
19
19
20
20
Share of
nights in Nights in
Total
3.8
7.4
11.9
13.1
8.4
6.9
15.9
-0.4
15.3
11.1
-1.3
1.5
-7.8
-5.9
-5.9
7.4
1.0
-10.7
-9.8
-4.9
1.1
2.4
2.5
1.6
1.1
1.7
0.1
1.8
2.2
4.0
1.3
-0.4
2.6
2.6
3.2
4.2
3.2
2.0
5.3
-6.9
-2.0
2.6
-0.5
1.2
4.4
1.6
3.2
1.0
7.1
8.2
-5.7
2.0
2.8
1.8
2.5
2.5
2.4
2.6
2.4
1.0
3.5
-2.4
1.0
2.0
-0.5
Numbers shaded are forecasts
a Visiting friends and relatives
b Hotels, motels, guesthouses, and serviced apartments
c Total Inbound Tourism Expenditure, real, base = Quarter 4 2012
d Other refers to education and employment visitors w ho stay in Australia for one year or less. On average, these visitors spend more and stay longer than the average tourist.
Historical estimates for international visitor nights have changed due to a slight change in the methodology
The sum of purpose of visit categories does not add to the total as the total includes estimates for those not reporting a purpose of visit to Australia
100
Arrivals
Expenditure
2000-01
2003-04
2006-07
2009-10
2012-13
52
2015-16
2018-19
2021-22
500
150
1000
Arrivals (000s)
200
Expenditure ($m)
1500
250
300
2000
South Korea - Arrivals, 000s (LHS) and Expenditure, $m (RHS), 2001-01 to 2021-22
Thailand
Table 23
International visitor arrivals: Thailand
Business
VFRa
Otherd
Total
9
9
11
11
13
14
14
16
13
15
16
15
16
17
17
18
19
19
20
20
21
21
11
10
10
11
12
12
13
14
14
16
15
16
18
19
19
20
21
22
22
23
24
25
40
35
31
35
31
29
28
31
26
29
32
27
28
29
31
32
34
35
36
38
39
41
14
13
16
16
17
18
19
19
20
19
19
17
17
19
20
21
22
22
23
24
25
25
78
80
76
79
79
75
77
84
77
83
88
81
85
89
93
97
100
104
107
111
114
118
9.3
5.7
1.5
4.7
-4.5
7.3
-0.4
-2.3
3.9
5.1
4.3
2.6
3.5
5.3
3.2
Holiday
'000
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22
Compound annual
growth rate (%)
2001/02-2006/07
2006/07-2011/12
2011/12-2016/17
2016/17-2021/22
2001/02-2011/12
2011/12-2021/22
Total
change
Average
nights
Share of
Total nights in Nights in
nights HMGSA b HMGSA
TITEc
Total
TITE
per visitor
million
per cent
million
$ million
$
39.0
30.2
34.2
31.9
36.3
39.6
41.6
38.5
49.6
46.6
50.6
51.8
50.2
47.9
46.9
46.8
47.0
47.2
47.5
47.8
48.0
48.3
3.0
2.4
2.6
2.5
2.9
3.0
3.2
3.2
3.8
3.9
4.4
4.2
4.3
4.2
4.4
4.5
4.7
4.9
5.1
5.3
5.5
5.7
6.5
11.6
8.8
14.2
13.4
9.4
11.6
11.6
7.4
6.8
9.8
6.4
7.4
7.6
8.3
8.3
8.3
8.3
8.2
8.2
8.2
8.2
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.5
388
432
433
437
426
381
374
426
491
448
515
405
434
462
493
509
526
543
559
575
591
608
4 987
5 400
5 732
5 544
5 376
5 088
4 855
5 055
6 343
5 385
5 882
4 992
5 108
5 206
5 287
5 254
5 242
5 231
5 214
5 197
5 184
5 169
-0.7
6.6
5.8
0.0
5.8
-2.8
-2.1
1.0
4.5
5.5
-11.2
-6.3
1.6
0.6
5.1
4.4
-1.9
2.4
5.2
7.7
5.4
1.0
3.8
3.4
3.2
0.6
3.8
-0.3
3.5
2.9
-0.3
5.2
-2.5
2.4
0.1
5.5
5.7
-5.8
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
4.3
4.0
4.2
3.8
-0.7
3.1
2.4
5.6
4.2
0.3
per cent
n.a.
2.7
-5.6
4.4
0.7
-5.7
3.0
9.3
-8.1
7.5
5.4
-7.5
4.9
4.4
5.0
4.0
3.6
3.3
3.3
3.2
3.2
3.1
Numbers shaded are forecasts
a Visiting friends and relatives
b Hotels, motels, guesthouses, and serviced apartments
c Total Inbound Tourism Expenditure, real, base = Quarter 4 2012
d Other refers to education and employment visitors w ho stay in Australia for one year or less. On average, these visitors spend more and stay longer than the average tourist.
Historical estimates for international visitor nights have changed due to a slight change in the methodology
The sum of purpose of visit categories does not add to the total as the total includes estimates for those not reporting a purpose of visit to Australia
700
60
Arrivals
Expenditure
2000-01
2003-04
2006-07
2009-10
2012-13
53
2015-16
2018-19
2021-22
300
70
400
80
500
Expenditure ($m)
Arrivals (000s)
90
100
600
110
120
Thailand - Arrivals, 000s (LHS) and Expenditure, $m (RHS), 2001-01 to 2021-22
Rest of Asia
Table 24
International visitor arrivals: Rest of Asia
Business
VFRa
Holiday
Otherd
Total
'000
Total
change
Average
nights
per cent
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22
Compound annual
growth rate (%)
2001/02-2006/07
2006/07-2011/12
2011/12-2016/17
2016/17-2021/22
19
15
14
16
18
20
24
26
25
27
28
28
27
28
29
31
32
34
35
37
38
40
30
24
23
30
33
36
43
49
53
57
56
59
66
70
73
76
79
82
85
88
91
94
108
83
66
92
97
99
91
85
96
93
86
96
105
111
117
124
130
135
141
147
153
159
34
25
23
27
27
32
38
43
52
55
59
63
66
69
72
75
78
81
84
87
90
93
206
174
149
180
185
190
200
207
230
237
235
251
269
283
297
311
324
337
350
363
377
391
9.3
2.8
3.1
4.3
12.4
6.7
6.1
3.5
2.0
0.9
6.2
4.2
8.7
10.9
4.2
3.7
2001/02-2011/12
2011/12-2021/22
6.0
3.7
9.5
4.8
1.5
5.2
9.8
3.9
n.a.
-15.6
-14.6
20.9
2.9
2.9
5.4
3.3
10.8
3.4
-1.0
6.9
7.2
5.1
5.0
4.6
4.3
3.9
3.9
3.8
3.8
3.7
Share of
Total nights in Nights in
nights HMGSA b HMGSA
million per cent
million
TITEc
Total
$ million
TITE
per visitor
$
27.5
27.6
28.7
25.0
28.9
35.5
38.0
46.9
53.4
56.3
59.7
69.9
65.5
64.9
63.9
65.7
66.6
67.5
68.5
69.6
70.7
71.8
5.7
4.8
4.3
4.5
5.3
6.8
7.6
9.7
12.3
13.4
14.0
17.6
17.6
18.4
19.0
20.4
21.6
22.7
24.0
25.3
26.7
28.1
13.6
13.3
14.2
14.3
12.4
12.1
10.3
7.0
7.2
6.0
5.4
5.3
5.5
5.5
5.2
5.2
5.2
5.1
5.1
5.0
5.0
4.9
0.8
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.1
1.1
1.2
1.2
1.3
1.3
1.4
983
892
817
860
772
839
878
1 049
1 304
1 324
1 315
1 420
1 472
1 551
1 586
1 739
1 821
1 903
1 988
2 077
2 169
2 265
4 766
5 129
5 497
4 787
4 175
4 413
4 378
5 065
5 682
5 577
5 596
5 655
5 468
5 482
5 339
5 596
5 619
5 648
5 680
5 715
5 750
5 791
2.9
4.6
5.2
3.8
6.6
13.0
-1.0
1.5
9.7
18.2
4.2
5.4
-4.9
-12.6
-0.5
-0.9
4.4
3.3
3.7
4.5
-0.3
10.1
5.1
4.5
-3.1
5.3
-0.1
0.6
3.7
4.5
9.8
0.3
13.9
4.8
-8.8
-0.7
3.8
4.1
4.8
4.8
1.0
0.2
Numbers shaded are forecasts
a Visiting friends and relatives
b Hotels, motels, guesthouses, and serviced apartments
c Total Inbound Tourism Expenditure, real, base = Quarter 4 2012
d Other refers to education and employment visitors w ho stay in Australia for one year or less. On average, these visitors spend more and stay longer than the average tourist
Historical estimates for international visitor nights have changed due to a slight change in the methodology
The sum of purpose of visit categories does not add to the total as the total includes estimates for those not reporting a purpose of visit to Australia
150
Arrivals
Expenditure
2000-01
2003-04
2006-07
2009-10
2012-13
54
2015-16
2018-19
2021-22
500
200
1000
1500
Expenditure ($m)
Arrivals (000s)
250
300
2000
350
400
2500
Rest of Asia - Arrivals, 000s (LHS) and Expenditure, $m (RHS), 2001-01 to 2021-22
Europe
France
Table 25
International visitor arrivals: France
Business
VFRa
10
8
6
8
9
9
10
11
10
10
10
10
10
11
11
12
12
13
13
13
14
14
10
9
9
8
11
11
11
13
13
15
15
16
17
18
19
19
20
21
21
22
23
23
Total
million
per cent
million
$ million
$
24
22
20
23
29
37
39
43
50
56
54
54
54
55
58
61
63
65
68
70
72
75
8
8
7
14
7
8
9
11
15
15
14
15
16
17
18
19
19
20
21
22
23
24
54
52
46
57
59
66
70
78
89
97
94
96
99
102
107
112
116
120
124
129
133
138
n.a.
-4.1
-10.9
23.8
3.0
11.2
6.5
11.6
14.6
9.0
-3.1
1.2
3.1
3.6
4.9
4.3
3.9
3.6
3.5
3.5
3.4
3.4
26.3
37.0
35.8
44.3
31.9
35.8
53.3
46.7
52.0
54.3
54.6
60.6
59.8
58.9
58.2
57.5
57.0
56.5
56.0
55.5
55.0
54.5
1.4
1.9
1.7
2.5
1.9
2.3
3.7
3.6
4.7
5.3
5.2
5.8
5.9
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.6
6.8
7.0
7.2
7.3
7.5
25.8
14.7
17.1
13.4
13.4
18.8
13.1
13.3
11.3
8.6
7.6
8.0
7.1
7.7
8.2
7.9
7.9
7.8
7.8
7.7
7.7
7.7
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.5
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.6
304
333
322
362
317
366
499
537
654
622
565
563
594
678
732
775
806
838
871
904
938
972
5 613
6 404
6 957
6 311
5 366
5 581
7 141
6 887
7 315
6 377
5 982
5 892
6 024
6 640
6 837
6 946
6 950
6 972
6 994
7 018
7 040
7 060
('000)
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22
Compound annual
growth rate (%)
2001/02-2006/07
2006/07-2011/12
2011/12-2016/17
2016/17-2021/22
2001/02-2011/12
2011/12-2021/22
Share of
Total nights in Nights in
nights HMGSA b HMGSA
Otherd
Holiday
Total
change
Average
nights
per cent
TITEc
Total
TITE
per visitor
4.1
3.8
12.6
3.8
6.1
-
7.6
14.1
-2.4
11.4
8.4
2.2
-0.9
8.0
6.5
9.2
6.5
-
2.6
9.3
-9.3
-0.9
2.4
-3.8
4.5
4.2
3.3
5.8
3.9
-
-1.2
2.7
-0.4
2.2
7.4
3.4
3.5
3.3
3.5
3.9
3.5
-
-0.9
2.6
-0.5
2.0
3.8
0.3
1.6
5.9
9.5
6.5
6.3
-
5.1
11.7
-5.9
5.1
5.4
-0.8
4.0
3.7
3.4
4.8
3.7
-
-1.1
2.6
-0.5
2.1
5.6
1.8
Numbers shaded are forecasts
a Visiting friends and relatives
b Hotels, motels, guesthouses, and serviced apartments
c Total Inbound Tourism Expenditure, real, base = Quarter 4 2012
d Other refers to education and employment visitors w ho stay in Australia for one year or less. On average, these visitors spend more and stay longer than the average tourist
Historical estimates for international visitor nights have changed due to a slight change in the methodology
The sum of purpose of visit categories does not add to the total as the total includes estimates for those not reporting a purpose of visit to Australia
200
50
400
Arrivals (000s)
600
Expenditure ($m)
100
800
150
1000
France - Arrivals, 000s (LHS) and Expenditure, $m (RHS), 2001-01 to 2021-22
0
Arrivals
Expenditure
2000-01
2003-04
2006-07
2009-10
2012-13
55
2015-16
2018-19
2021-22
Ireland
Table 26
International visitor arrivals: Ireland
Business
VFRa
Holiday
Otherd
Total
Average
nights
50
51
47
54
57
60
63
69
67
59
53
62
62
64
67
69
71
73
75
77
79
81
per cent
n.a.
1.7
-6.6
15.1
4.0
5.3
6.3
9.4
-2.9
-12.4
-10.3
17.7
0.0
3.6
3.9
3.3
3.0
2.6
2.6
2.5
2.4
2.4
69.1
68.6
54.0
52.6
61.1
61.2
59.1
54.9
60.5
68.9
70.6
81.9
81.9
80.0
78.7
76.6
74.9
73.2
71.6
70.0
68.5
67.0
3.4
3.5
2.5
2.9
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.8
4.1
4.1
3.7
5.1
5.1
5.2
5.3
5.3
5.3
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.4
('000)
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22
Compound annual
growth rate (%)
2001/02-2006/07
2006/07-2011/12
2011/12-2016/17
2016/17-2021/22
2001/02-2011/12
2011/12-2021/22
28
28
27
32
34
37
38
42
37
31
25
26
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
5
5
4
6
5
6
7
8
11
9
11
16
17
18
18
19
19
20
20
21
21
22
Share of
Total
nights in Nights in
nights HMGSA b HMGSA
million
per cent
million
Total
change
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
12
12
11
12
14
14
16
17
16
17
14
17
19
20
20
21
21
21
21
22
22
22
8.5
6.2
6.2
9.6
4.6
-
-2.9
1.3
1.7
-7.4
17.0
-0.4
-
6.8
3.2
4.1
1.2
3.8
2.8
-
2.1
1.5
3.4
2.4
2.5
-
4.8
3.9
-0.8
13.2
2.1
2.6
2.8
2.3
3.1
2.6
TITE c
Total
$ million
TITE
per visitor
$
5.7
5.6
8.2
7.4
6.1
12.7
13.9
10.7
8.0
8.7
12.9
7.5
5.7
6.7
7.5
8.9
8.9
8.9
8.9
8.9
8.9
8.9
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
537
433
414
512
571
677
660
669
780
608
529
671
663
687
725
741
757
771
785
799
812
825
10
8
8
9
10
11
10
9
11
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
1.5
19.9
21.8
8.8
6.4
-11.7
-6.0
0.3
0.7
-1.8
0.9
3.5
4.5
2.4
-0.3
-2.2
0.2
0.0
0.2
1.7
-0.7
-
1.8
3.9
2.9
7.0
4.5
2.3
-
-2.0
0.6
1.7
2.3
2.1
-0.5
4.0
Numbers shaded are f orecasts
a Visiting f riends and relatives
b Hotels, motels, guesthouses, and serviced apartments
c Total Inbound Tourism Expenditure, real, base = Quarter 4 2012
d Other ref ers to education and employment visitors w ho stay in Australia f or one year or less. On average, these visitors spend more and stay longer than the average tourist.
Historical estimates f or international visitor nights have changed due to a slight change in the methodology
The sum of purpose of visit categories does not add to the total as the total includes estimates f or those not reporting a purpose of visit to Australia
40
2000-01
2003-04
2006-07
2009-10
2012-13
56
2015-16
2018-19
2021-22
300
400
50
500
Arrivals (000s)
60
70
600
700
Expenditure ($m)
80
800
90
900
Ireland - Arrivals, 000s (LHS) and Expenditure, $m (RHS), 2001-01 to 2021-22
Arrivals
Expenditure
809
566
763
431
096
379
432
665
600
327
017
800
663
655
824
713
631
551
473
396
319
243
Germany
Economic assumptions
GDP growth
Inflation
Home currency
Home currency
Population
%
%
usd
aud
mill.
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
3.9
1.6
0.80
0.60
82.4
3.4
2.3
0.73
0.59
82.4
0.8
2.6
0.68
0.58
82.3
-5.1
0.3
0.72
0.57
82.3
3.6
1.1
0.75
0.69
82.3
3.1
2.3
0.72
0.74
82.2
0.7
2.0
0.78
0.81
82.1
0.7
1.8
0.76
0.78
82.1
1.7
2.0
0.78
0.77
82.0
1.9
2.2
0.77
0.76
81.9
Sources: IMF IFS; Consensus Forecasts, March 2013
Currencies are year average, based on quarterly data
Economic outlook
Market performance
Economic growth is expected to increase 0.7 per cent
and 1.7 per cent in 2013 and 2014 respectively–lower
than the 10-year long-run average of 1.2 per cent. In the
medium to longer term, the German economy is
expected to increase at an average annual rate of
1.4 per cent–higher than the long-run average.
In 2012, visitor arrivals increased 0.7 per cent to
154,900 compared with 2011.
Visitor nights
increased 2.3 per cent to 7.7 million in the same
period. Over the first eight months in 2012-13, arrivals
have increased 3.3 per cent–1.6 percentage points
lower than growth for total inbound arrivals.
The Euro is expected to appreciate against the
Australian dollar making Australia a more attractive
destination for visitors from Germany.
In the first eight months of 2012/13, Education,
Holiday and Visiting Friends and Relatives increased
8.4 per cent, 4.4 per cent and 1.8 per cent
respectively, while Employment and Business
decreased 10.2 per cent and 7.5 per cent
respectively.
Market outlook
Visitor arrivals from Germany are now forecast to rise
2.7 per cent and 1.7 per cent to 155,800 in 2012-13 and
158,500 in 2013-14 respectively. This revision
represents a difference of 6,800 more visitors in
aggregate. In the longer term to 2021-22, average
annual growth of 2.9 per cent to 201,900 is expected.
Visitor nights are now forecast to rise 4.0 per cent and
1.5 per cent to 7.5 million nights in 2012-13 and
7.7 million nights in 2013-14 respectively, and to
9.0 million nights in 2021-22. Visitor expenditure is
forecast to rise 2.0 per cent in 2012-13 to $920 million. In
the longer term to 2021-22, average annual growth of
3.3 per cent is forecast to $1.2 billion, representing an,
upward revision of $129 million.
In the first six months of 2012-13, average length of
stay increased 7.3 per cent to 52 nights per trip, while
total nights in hotels, motels, guesthouses and
serviced apartments decreased 25 per cent to
427,000 compared with the same period in 2011-12.
In the first six months of 2012-13, expenditure as
defined by Total Inbound Tourism Expenditure (TITE)
decreased 6.0 per cent to $477 million compared with
the same period in the previous financial year, while
leisure expenditure decreased by 7.8 per cent to
$348 million in the same period.
57
Table 27
International visitor arrivals: Germany
Business
VFRa
Holiday
Otherd
Total
Total
change
'000
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22
Compound annual
growth rate (%)
2001/02-2006/07
2006/07-2011/12
2011/12-2016/17
2016/17-2021/22
2001/02-2011/12
2011/12-2021/22
Average
nights
Total
Share of
nights in Nights in
nights HMGSA
b
HMGSA
TITEc
TITE
Total per visitor
million
per cent
million
$ million
$
31.1
40.3
34.9
46.2
39.7
44.7
46.4
45.9
47.1
45.6
43.2
47.8
48.4
48.3
48.3
48.1
47.4
46.8
46.1
45.5
44.9
44.3
4.6
5.5
4.7
6.5
5.7
6.7
6.9
7.1
7.5
7.4
6.9
7.3
7.5
7.7
7.9
8.2
8.3
8.4
8.6
8.7
8.8
9.0
31.1
26.1
23.6
13.0
17.8
17.7
17.0
14.6
13.8
13.9
12.8
13.3
10.3
9.6
9.9
9.8
9.9
9.9
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.1
1.4
1.4
1.1
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.2
1.0
1.0
1.0
0.9
1.0
0.8
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
1 159
1 214
1 094
1 152
1 057
1 039
1 094
1 170
1 204
1 080
920
901
920
990
1 026
1 072
1 100
1 129
1 156
1 185
1 213
1 242
7 854
8 879
8 160
8 169
7 424
6 909
7 362
7 540
7 590
6 627
5 773
5 943
5 903
6 249
6 247
6 316
6 287
6 262
6 231
6 204
6 177
6 153
1.7
2.9
4.6
-8.2
-4.0
-2.1
-3.7
0.4
0.6
1.0
-4.8
-3.9
-3.8
-4.2
4.7
2.9
-0.2
2.7
-5.8
-3.2
4.1
1.1
2.6
4.4
2.9
-1.3
1.5
0.4
1.9
2.5
-0.4
3.8
0.6
5.2
1.0
1.7
2.8
-6.5
-3.9
-2.9
-3.9
3.0
2.8
4.5
2.9
-0.7
2.1
-2.7
-0.7
3.3
0.3
15
11
11
13
14
17
17
18
16
16
17
17
16
17
17
18
18
19
19
20
20
20
21
16
16
18
20
20
20
21
21
23
23
24
24
25
26
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
8.1
0.7
per cent
97
86
87
86
90
99
95
98
99
103
99
91
95
96
99
103
106
108
111
114
117
120
9
11
10
15
12
15
16
18
20
20
18
18
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
148
137
134
141
142
150
149
155
159
163
159
152
156
158
164
170
175
180
186
191
196
202
4.1
2.0
8.9
3.4
-0.8
1.7
0.9
2.8
2.9
2.5
3.2
4.3
1.7
n.a.
-7.3
-2.0
5.2
1.0
5.6
-1.1
4.4
2.3
2.7
-2.3
-4.8
2.7
1.7
3.6
3.3
3.2
3.0
2.9
2.9
2.8
2.8
Numbers shaded are forecasts
a Visiting friends and relatives
b Hotels, motels, guesthouses, and serviced apartments
c Total Inbound Tourism Expenditure, real, base = Quarter 4 2012
d Other refers to education and employment visitors w ho stay in Australia for one year or less. On average, these visitors spend more and stay longer than the average tourist.
Historical estimates for international visitor nights have changed due to a slight change in the methodology
The sum of purpose of visit categories does not add to the total as the total includes estimates for those not reporting a purpose of visit to Australia
600
140
800
160
Arrivals (000s)
180
1000
1200
Expenditure ($m)
200
1400
Germany - Arrivals, 000s (LHS) and Expenditure, $m (RHS), 2001-01 to 2021-22
Arrivals
Expenditure
2000-01
2003-04
2006-07
2009-10
2012-13
58
2015-16
2018-19
2021-22
United Kingdom
Economic assumptions
GDP growth
Inflation
Home currency
Home currency
Population
%
%
usd
aud
mill.
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2.6
2.3
0.54
0.41
60.7
3.6
2.3
0.50
0.42
60.9
-1.0
3.6
0.54
0.46
61.0
-4.0
2.2
0.64
0.50
61.2
1.8
3.3
0.65
0.59
61.4
0.9
4.5
0.62
0.64
61.5
0.0
2.8
0.63
0.65
61.7
0.9
2.8
0.63
0.65
61.9
1.6
2.5
0.64
0.63
62.1
2.2
2.5
0.63
0.62
62.3
Sources: IMF IFS; Consensus Forecasts, March 2013
Currencies are year average, based on quarterly data
Economic outlook
Market performance
Economic growth is expected to increase 0.9 per cent
and 1.6 per cent in 2013 and 2014 respectively–broadly
consistent with the 10-year long-run average of
1.3 per cent. In the medium to longer term, the British
economy is expected to increase at an average annual
rate of 1.9 per cent–higher than the long-run average.
In 2012, visitor arrivals decreased 2.4 per cent to 593,700
compared with 2011. Visitor nights increased 6.9 per cent
to 24 million in the same period. Over the first eight
months in 2012-13, arrivals have decreased 1.9 per cent.
This is 6.8 percentage points lower than growth for total
inbound arrivals.
The British Pound is expected to appreciate against the
Australian dollar, making Australia a more attractive
destination for visitors from the United Kingdom.
In the first eight months of 2012-13, VFR increased
1.8 per cent, while Education, Holiday, Employment and
Business decreased 8.1 per cent, 6.4 per cent, 2 per cent
and 1.6 per cent respectively.
Market outlook
In the first six months of 2012-13, average length of stay
increased 19.7 per cent to 43 nights per trip, while total
nights in hotels, motels, guesthouses and serviced
apartments increased 21.6 per cent to 1.5 million
compared with the same period in 2011-12.
Direct air capacity is expected to decrease 30 per cent
and 5.5 per cent in 2012-13 and 2013-14 respectively
against its 10-year long-run average growth rate of
0.6 per cent. In the medium to longer term, air capacity is
expected to increase at an average annual rate of
0.1 per cent, slightly higher than the long-run average.
For the first six months of 2012-13, expenditure as defined
by Total Inbound Tourism Expenditure (TITE) increased
5.2 per cent to $1.6 billion compared with the same period
in the previous financial year, while leisure expenditure
increased by 5.4 per cent to $1.2 billion in the same
period.
Visitor arrivals from the United Kingdom are now forecast
to decrease 2.0 per cent to 585,300 in 2012-13 and
increase 1.3 per cent to 592,700 in 2013-14. This
revision represents a difference of 9,900 fewer visitors in
aggregate. In the longer term to 2021-22, average
annual growth of 1.7 per cent to 705,700 is expected.
Visitor nights are now forecast to rise 4.4 per cent to
23 million nights in 2012-13 and decrease 4.8 per cent to
22 million nights in 2013-14 respectively, and to
24 million nights in 2021-22. Visitor expenditure is
forecast to rise 3.8 per cent in 2012-13 to $3 billion. In
the longer term to 2021-22, average annual growth of
1.8 per cent is forecast to $3.4 billion, representing an
upward revision of $94 million.
59
Table 28
International visitor arrivals: United Kingdom
Business
VFRa
Holiday
Otherd
Total
Total
change
'000
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22
Compound annual
growth rate (%)
2001/02-2006/07
2006/07-2011/12
2011/12-2016/17
2016/17-2021/22
2001/02-2011/12
2011/12-2021/22
46
41
44
46
45
52
54
53
47
49
54
59
60
62
64
66
67
69
71
73
75
77
220
200
208
229
244
251
252
255
253
263
253
252
256
259
265
272
279
285
291
297
304
310
5.6
1.9
Average
nights
per cent
605
627
644
686
699
709
733
686
659
653
632
597
585
593
605
620
635
649
663
677
691
706
n.a.
3.6
2.7
6.5
1.9
1.4
3.4
-6.4
-4.0
-0.9
-3.1
-5.6
-2.0
1.3
2.0
2.5
2.4
2.2
2.2
2.1
2.1
2.1
Total
Share of
nights in Nights in
TITEc
HMGSA
million
per cent
million
$ million
$
24.7
24.3
23.7
28.1
23.2
23.7
24.4
22.2
23.4
23.8
22.6
21.7
22.7
21.6
21.2
21.5
22.1
22.5
22.9
23.4
23.8
24.4
12.0
15.4
15.8
14.5
17.9
19.7
19.5
17.9
15.8
12.5
14.3
11.9
12.5
13.9
15.2
14.8
14.6
14.6
14.6
14.4
14.4
14.3
3.0
3.8
3.7
4.1
4.2
4.7
4.8
4.0
3.7
3.0
3.2
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.3
3.3
3.4
3.4
3.5
4 416
4 688
4 743
4 753
4 343
4 295
4 744
4 287
4 067
3 432
3 141
2 867
2 975
3 205
3 233
3 245
3 284
3 314
3 346
3 373
3 403
3 430
7 294
7 475
7 362
6 925
6 209
6 055
6 469
6 246
6 175
5 257
4 967
4 802
5 083
5 408
5 346
5 234
5 171
5 106
5 046
4 980
4 922
4 860
nights HMGSA
40.8
38.8
36.8
40.9
33.2
33.4
33.2
32.4
35.5
36.5
35.8
36.4
38.8
36.4
35.1
34.7
34.8
34.7
34.6
34.6
34.5
34.5
Total per visitor
293
296
314
337
359
370
390
340
317
299
280
239
222
224
228
232
239
244
249
255
260
265
31
36
34
42
26
33
33
34
36
34
38
40
39
40
41
42
43
44
44
45
45
46
4.7
5.7
-1.8
3.2
-3.0
0.0
4.8
4.8
0.2
-2.8
0.0
-9.4
4.2
-4.0
1.8
-2.3
-9.4
-11.5
-9.6
-5.8
2.5
2.1
0.0
1.2
1.2
-0.9
0.3
4.3
4.6
2.8
1.5
2.6
2.1
2.2
1.5
2.1
-0.2
2.0
-0.5
1.5
0.9
-1.2
3.8
2.3
-2.1
1.1
-0.5
-0.6
-1.1
-2.6
-3.7
-4.8
-4.3
2.6
2.1
1.1
1.3
1.7
-0.5
1.2
1.9
3.0
1.8
0.1
Numbers shaded are forecasts
a Visiting friends and relatives
b Hotels, motels, guesthouses, and serviced apartments
c Total Inbound Tourism Expenditure, real, base = Quarter 4 2012
d Other refers to education and employment visitors w ho stay in Australia for one year or less. On average, these visitors spend more and stay longer than the average tourist.
Historical estimates for international visitor nights have changed due to a slight change in the methodology
The sum of purpose of visit categories does not add to the total as the total includes estimates for those not reporting a purpose of visit to Australia
500
Arrivals
Expenditure
2003-04
2006-07
2009-10
2012-13
60
2015-16
2018-19
2021-22
2000
550
2500
600
3000
Arrivals (000s)
650
700
3500
4000
Expenditure ($m)
750
4500
800
5000
United Kingdom - Arrivals, 000s (LHS) and Expenditure, $m (RHS), 2001-01 to 2021-22
2000-01
TITE
b
Rest of Europe
Table 29
International visitor arrivals: Rest of Europe
Business
VFRa
Holiday
Otherd
Total
('000)
Total
change
Average
nights
per cent
Share of
Total nights in Nights in
nights HMGSA b HMGSA
million per cent
million
TITEc
Total
$ million
TITE
per visitor
$
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22
Compound annual
growth rate (%)
2001/02-2006/07
2006/07-2011/12
2011/12-2016/17
2016/17-2021/22
44
34
30
36
36
44
45
48
44
41
44
47
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
72
58
55
61
68
67
70
71
72
81
79
82
86
88
91
94
96
99
102
104
107
110
179
150
152
150
168
183
189
193
191
197
189
180
187
191
200
208
216
224
232
240
249
257
45
34
34
38
34
37
43
44
52
45
46
48
51
54
56
58
60
63
65
67
69
71
356
303
297
306
323
333
348
358
363
370
363
362
380
390
405
419
433
447
460
474
489
503
n.a.
-14.9
-1.9
3.1
5.4
3.1
4.7
2.7
1.4
1.9
-1.8
-0.4
4.8
2.8
3.8
3.5
3.3
3.1
3.1
3.0
3.0
3.0
37.1
40.4
36.8
35.3
35.6
38.0
39.2
40.2
39.3
38.9
39.9
44.1
43.6
42.3
42.4
43.2
43.4
43.6
43.8
43.9
44.1
44.4
13.2
12.2
10.9
10.8
11.5
12.6
13.6
14.4
14.3
14.4
14.5
16.0
16.5
16.5
17.2
18.1
18.8
19.5
20.1
20.8
21.6
22.3
17.7
16.3
16.7
15.6
18.8
18.0
20.2
16.7
16.1
15.5
16.6
12.4
12.5
13.8
13.6
13.3
13.3
13.2
13.1
13.0
13.0
12.9
2.3
2.0
1.8
1.7
2.2
2.3
2.8
2.4
2.3
2.2
2.4
2.0
2.1
2.3
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.9
2 826
2 536
2 523
2 325
2 245
2 209
2 351
2 569
2 636
2 352
2 200
2 058
2 177
2 376
2 462
2 577
2 640
2 702
2 767
2 831
2 898
2 963
7 934
8 368
8 489
7 588
6 955
6 640
6 751
7 180
7 262
6 359
6 052
5 685
5 735
6 086
6 078
6 147
6 095
6 050
6 012
5 967
5 931
5 891
6.0
0.9
3.0
1.7
3.8
3.3
3.3
2.6
4.8
-1.0
3.8
3.6
5.0
2.4
4.7
3.3
2.8
0.8
3.6
3.0
-
-0.6
2.4
-0.3
0.4
2.2
3.2
3.3
3.5
4.5
-9.3
1.4
-0.6
6.7
-6.4
4.7
2.9
-1.5
-2.6
5.1
2.3
-4.2
-3.4
1.4
-0.7
2001/02-2011/12
2011/12-2021/22
3.4
2.3
3.5
3.0
1.9
3.7
3.7
4.0
1.8
3.3
-
0.9
0.1
2.7
3.4
-2.7
0.4
-0.1
3.8
-2.1
3.7
-3.8
0.4
Numbers shaded are forecasts
a Visiting friends and relatives
b Hotels, motels, guesthouses, and serviced apartments
c Total Inbound Tourism Expenditure, real, base = Quarter 4 2012
d Other refers to education and employment visitors w ho stay in Australia for one year or less. On average, these visitors spend more and stay longer than the average tourist.
Historical estimates for international visitor nights have changed due to a slight change in the methodology
The sum of purpose of visit categories does not add to the total as the total includes estimates for those not reporting a purpose of visit to Australia
250
Arrivals
Expenditure
2000-01
2003-04
2006-07
2009-10
2012-13
61
2015-16
2018-19
2021-22
2000
300
2200
350
2400
2600
Expenditure ($m)
Arrivals (000s)
400
450
2800
500
550
3000
Rest of Europe - Arrivals, 000s (LHS) and Expenditure, $m (RHS), 2001-01 to 2021-22
North America
Canada
Table 30
International visitor arrivals: Canada
Business
VFRa
Holiday
Otherd
Total
Total
change
('000)
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22
Compound annual
growth rate (%)
2001/02-2006/07
2006/07-2011/12
2011/12-2016/17
2016/17-2021/22
2001/02-2011/12
2011/12-2021/22
Average
nights
Total
Share of
nights in Nights in
nights HMGSA
b
TITE c
TITE
HMGSA
Total
per visitor
million
per cent
million
$ million
12
11
10
11
12
13
15
16
16
15
16
17
17
17
18
19
19
20
21
22
22
23
28
25
23
27
31
31
33
33
35
40
38
37
38
40
42
43
45
46
48
49
51
52
45
42
41
42
48
51
50
57
55
56
50
51
51
52
55
57
58
60
62
64
66
68
8
7
7
8
8
11
11
13
14
14
13
14
13
14
15
15
16
16
17
17
18
18
96
93
87
93
103
106
111
121
121
125
119
119
120
124
130
135
139
144
148
153
157
162
n.a.
-3.2
-7.0
7.3
11.0
3.3
3.8
9.4
0.4
3.3
-5.3
0.5
0.6
3.1
4.8
3.8
3.4
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.1
3.0
49.4
43.0
36.2
38.2
40.2
38.3
40.9
39.3
43.5
35.0
37.6
38.3
37.1
36.9
37.2
37.1
36.9
36.8
36.7
36.5
36.4
36.2
4.7
4.0
3.1
3.5
4.1
4.1
4.5
4.8
5.3
4.4
4.5
4.6
4.5
4.6
4.8
5.0
5.1
5.3
5.4
5.6
5.7
5.9
14.4
13.9
17.5
12.9
14.1
18.6
19.1
17.5
15.5
17.5
15.5
14.3
13.9
14.4
14.6
14.4
14.4
14.5
14.6
14.6
14.7
14.7
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.8
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.9
792
737
657
593
686
726
790
865
872
724
699
657
692
763
801
819
839
859
879
899
919
939
7.7
6.1
3.5
9.9
3.5
-
-1.0
2.5
6.6
9.3
1.4
-2.0
2.5
2.3
0.1
4.0
1.5
-
-1.3
0.2
-5.7
-5.5
-3.6
-5.1
2.3
3.8
2.9
2.9
3.1
-
-0.7
2.4
0.2
2.5
5.0
1.8
3.5
3.1
3.0
2.9
3.1
-
-0.4
2.7
0.4
3.1
2.3
-0.8
5.0
4.2
1.8
6.9
2.5
-
-1.1
1.4
0.3
1.7
-1.1
-3.6
2.9
3.5
3.0
2.9
3.1
-
-0.6
2.5
0.3
2.8
3.6
0.5
per cent
Numbers shaded are forecasts.
a Visiting friends and relatives
b Hotels, motels, guesthouses, and serviced apartments
c Total Inbound Tourism Expenditure, real, base = Quarter 4 2012
d Other refers to education and employment visitors w ho stay in Australia for one year or less. On average, these visitors spend more and stay longer than the average tourist.
Historical estimates for international visitor nights have changed due to a slight change in the methodology
The sum of purpose of visit categories does not add to the total as the total includes estimates for those not reporting a purpose of visit to Australia
60
Arrivals
Expenditure
2000-01
2003-04
2006-07
2009-10
2012-13
62
2015-16
2018-19
2021-22
500
80
600
100
700
800
Expenditure ($m)
Arrivals (000s)
120
140
900
160
180
1000
Canada - Arrivals, 000s (LHS) and Expenditure, $m (RHS), 2001-01 to 2021-22
$
8
7
7
6
6
6
7
7
7
5
5
5
5
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
240
917
594
381
653
817
145
154
182
773
891
508
763
170
178
085
035
986
934
886
840
793
United States
Economic assumptions
GDP growth
Inflation
Home currency
Home currency
Population
%
%
usd
aud
mill.
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2.7
3.2
1.00
0.75
300
1.9
2.9
1.00
0.84
303
-0.3
3.8
1.00
0.85
306
-3.1
-0.4
1.00
0.79
309
2.4
1.6
1.00
0.92
312
1.8
3.2
1.00
1.03
315
2.2
2.1
1.00
1.04
318
1.8
1.8
1.00
1.03
321
2.8
2.1
1.00
0.99
324
2.9
2.1
1.00
0.99
327
Sources: IMF IFS; Consensus Forecasts, March 2013
Currencies are year average, based on quarterly data
Economic outlook
Market performance
Economic growth is expected to increase 1.8 per cent and
2.8 per cent in 2013 and 2014 respectively–higher than the
10 year long-run average of 1.7 per cent. In the medium to
longer term, the US economy is expected to increase at an
average annual rate of 2.6 per cent–higher than the
long-run average.
In 2012, visitor arrivals increased 5.0 per cent to 478,800
compared with 2011.
Visitor nights increased
3.4 per cent to 11 million in the same period. Over the
first eight months in 2012-13, arrivals have increased
6.4 per cent–1.5 percentage points higher than growth
for the total inbound arrivals.
The US dollar is expected to appreciate against the
Australian dollar, making Australia a more attractive
destination for visitors from the United States.
Market outlook
Direct air capacity is expected to increase 5.7 per cent and
4.0 per cent in 2012-13 and 2013-14 respectively, higher
than its 10 year long-run average of 3.9 per cent. In the
medium to longer term, air capacity is expected to increase
at an average annual rate of 4.0 per cent, higher than the
long-run average.
Visitor arrivals from the United Sates are now forecast to
increase 4.9 per cent to 486,900 in 2012-13 and increase
3.1 per cent to 501,900 in 2013-14. This revision
represents a difference of 34,400 more visitors in
aggregate. In the longer term to 2021-22, average annual
growth of 3.6 per cent to 660,100 is expected. Visitor
nights are now forecast to rise 1.4 per cent and to
11 million nights in 2012-13, and decrease 1.5 per cent to
10.8 million nights in 2013-14, and to 14.1 million nights in
2021-22. Visitor expenditure is forecast to rise 4.0 per cent
in 2012-13 to $2.4 billion. In the longer term to 2021-22,
average annual growth of 1.2 per cent is forecast to
$2.6 billion,, representing a downward revision of
$305 million.
63
In the first eight months of 2012-13, Holiday, VFR and
Business increased 10.3 per cent, 8 per cent and
2.4 per cent respectively, while Employment and
Education decreased 8.3 per cent and 6.9 per cent
respectively.
In the first six months of 2012-13, average length of stay
decreased 2.5 per cent to 22 nights per trip, while total
nights in hotels, motels, guesthouses and serviced
apartments increased 5.5 per cent to 1.5 million
compared with the same period in 2011-12.
In the first six months of 2012-13, expenditure as defined
by Total Inbound Tourism Expenditure (TITE) increased
6.6 per cent to $1.2 billion compared with the same
period in the previous financial year, while leisure
expenditure increased by 10.9 per cent to $640 million in
the same period.
Table 31
International visitor arrivals: United States
Business
VFRa
Holiday
Otherd
Total
Total
change
'000
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22
Compound annual
growth rate (%)
2001/02-2006/07
2006/07-2011/12
2011/12-2016/17
2016/17-2021/22
2001/02-2011/12
2011/12-2021/22
Average
nights
Total
Share of
nights in Nights in
nights HMGSA
b
HMGSA
TITEc
million
per cent
million
$ million
$
22.1
26.5
26.8
24.0
21.5
23.0
22.4
21.4
21.3
21.9
22.4
23.3
22.5
21.5
21.2
21.3
21.3
21.4
21.4
21.4
21.4
21.4
11.1
11.3
11.3
10.3
9.6
10.4
10.2
9.7
9.6
10.7
10.4
10.8
11.0
10.8
11.0
11.5
11.9
12.4
12.8
13.2
13.7
14.1
27.6
24.2
24.5
25.7
28.7
31.4
30.1
34.2
27.8
27.3
26.3
26.1
27.4
30.2
29.8
29.3
29.1
29.0
28.9
28.7
28.6
28.5
3.1
2.7
2.8
2.7
2.7
3.3
3.1
3.3
2.7
2.9
2.7
2.8
3.0
3.3
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.8
3.9
4.0
3 870
3 970
3 162
2 885
2 737
2 924
2 683
2 793
2 697
2 308
2 222
2 334
2 428
2 462
2 472
2 504
2 531
2 553
2 573
2 593
2 614
2 633
7 706
9 355
7 464
6 706
6 142
6 462
5 890
6 145
5 972
4 723
4 770
5 027
4 987
4 905
4 760
4 640
4 523
4 410
4 299
4 192
4 089
3 989
1.4
-3.3
-1.9
4.4
2.4
-7.5
-8.8
0.4
0.7
1.1
-2.8
-1.7
-2.7
-3.1
2.2
3.8
-1.7
2.0
2.2
4.3
1.6
-2.1
4.0
4.0
3.4
0.0
3.4
-0.4
2.9
0.8
-2.5
3.6
-0.1
-0.3
0.9
-1.3
-0.4
0.8
0.3
-5.2
-6.0
3.8
4.5
3.1
3.6
-0.8
2.7
0.9
3.6
1.2
-2.3
80
80
84
89
87
97
108
110
97
108
112
121
124
129
133
135
138
141
144
147
150
153
109
74
78
80
95
93
91
90
102
111
109
106
114
117
121
126
130
135
140
145
150
155
6.3
4.2
2.3
3.0
2.7
4.2
2.0
223
179
172
166
192
199
194
185
184
202
180
178
192
198
206
216
226
235
244
254
264
274
per cent
72
55
60
75
55
60
58
63
64
61
59
54
51
52
54
57
60
62
65
67
70
73
502
424
424
430
446
453
455
455
452
489
466
464
487
502
519
540
560
579
599
619
639
660
1.6
0.8
-1.7
-1.5
4.9
3.5
4.3
2.3
n.a.
-15.5
-0.2
1.6
3.6
1.6
0.6
-0.2
-0.6
8.2
-4.7
-0.3
4.9
3.1
3.5
3.9
3.7
3.4
3.4
3.4
3.3
3.3
Numbers shaded are forecasts
a Visiting friends and relatives
b Hotels, motels, guesthouses, and serviced apartments
c Total Inbound Tourism Expenditure, real, base = Quarter 4 2012
d Other refers to education and employment visitors w ho stay in Australia for one year or less. On average, these visitors spend more and stay longer than the average tourist.
Historical estimates for international visitor nights have changed due to a slight change in the methodology
The sum of purpose of visit categories does not add to the total as the total includes estimates for those not reporting a purpose of visit to Australia
400
Arrivals
Expenditure
2003-04
2006-07
2009-10
2012-13
64
2015-16
2018-19
2021-22
2000
450
2500
500
3000
Expenditure ($m)
Arrivals (000s)
550
600
3500
650
700
4000
United States - Arrivals, 000s (LHS) and Expenditure, $m (RHS), 2001-01 to 2021-22
2000-01
TITE
Total per visitor
Other Markets
Middle East and North Africa
Table 32
International visitor arrivals: Middle East and North Africa
Business
VFRa
Holiday
Otherd
Total
('000)
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22
Compound annual
growth rate (%)
2001/02-2006/07
2006/07-2011/12
2011/12-2016/17
2016/17-2021/22
2001/02-2011/12
2011/12-2021/22
Total
Average
change
nights
Total
Share of
nights in Nights in
nights HMGSA b
TITE c
TITE
HMGSA
Total
per visitor
million
per cent
million
$ million
26
25
21
23
31
33
34
36
38
34
37
33
30
31
33
36
40
43
47
50
55
59
7
5
5
7
8
10
13
16
20
23
23
23
21
22
25
28
31
34
38
42
46
50
57
56
50
56
68
73
83
93
105
111
114
114
114
119
127
136
145
155
165
176
188
200
n.a.
-1.5
-10.1
12.6
21.0
7.6
12.6
12.0
13.8
5.7
2.4
-0.1
0.3
4.1
6.9
7.2
6.8
6.6
6.6
6.6
6.6
6.5
41.0
48.0
37.8
43.2
32.2
40.2
41.0
44.8
42.0
43.4
45.4
40.9
41.4
42.5
42.6
43.5
44.0
44.5
45.1
45.6
46.1
46.7
2.3
2.7
1.9
2.4
2.2
3.0
3.4
4.1
4.4
4.8
5.2
4.7
4.7
5.1
5.4
5.9
6.4
6.9
7.4
8.0
8.7
9.3
11.2
11.1
8.2
10.2
14.7
18.1
12.4
10.3
11.4
9.0
10.1
10.4
9.3
10.2
10.6
9.8
9.6
9.3
9.1
8.8
8.6
8.4
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.8
345
412
301
401
270
312
404
641
657
582
445
414
459
512
560
607
657
712
772
839
913
993
11.9
6.0
19.2
8.2
-
-3.1
4.8
2.3
7.2
-0.4
-7.9
9.5
-0.6
12.1
6.6
-
0.0
6.6
-3.6
2.8
0.5
-5.8
7.0
5.4
3.9
6.5
5.0
-
1.5
6.5
-1.6
4.8
9.7
4.5
2.2
5.6
8.3
9.9
6.6
-
1.2
7.8
-2.7
5.0
8.6
1.9
12.7
10.7
2.6
15.6
7.4
-
-1.6
5.7
-0.7
5.0
0.0
-6.9
4.6
5.5
6.1
8.2
5.8
-
1.3
7.2
-2.1
4.9
9.2
3.2
7
5
5
6
7
10
12
14
14
16
16
18
22
23
24
24
25
26
26
27
27
28
14
12
13
15
17
18
21
23
28
32
32
33
34
36
38
40
43
45
48
50
53
56
18.3
7.4
per cent
Numbers shaded are forecasts
a Visiting friends and relatives
b Hotels, motels, guesthouses, and serviced apartments
c Total Inbound Tourism Expenditure, real, base = Quarter 4 2012
d Other refers to education and employment visitors w ho stay in Australia for one year or less. On average, these visitors spend more and stay longer than the average tourist.
Historical estimates for international visitor nights have changed due to a slight change in the methodology
The sum of purpose of visit categories does not add to the total as the total includes estimates for those not reporting a purpose of visit to Australia.
50
Arrivals
Expenditure
2000-01
2003-04
2006-07
2009-10
2012-13
65
2015-16
2018-19
2021-22
200
400
100
Arrivals (000s)
600
Expenditure ($m)
150
800
200
1000
Middle East and North Africa - Arrivals, 000s (LHS) and Expenditure, $m (RHS), 2001-01 to 2021-22
$
6
7
6
7
3
4
4
6
6
5
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
103
394
004
111
963
249
887
924
243
228
905
630
017
308
406
460
521
589
670
762
862
967
South Africa
Table 33
International visitor arrivals: South Africa
Business
VFRa
Holiday
Otherd
Total
('000)
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22
Compound annual
growth rate (%)
2001/02-2006/07
2006/07-2011/12
2011/12-2016/17
2016/17-2021/22
2001/02-2011/12
2011/12-2021/22
10
10
8
9
10
11
12
13
12
10
12
12
11
11
12
12
12
13
13
13
14
14
17
17
15
17
17
19
21
23
26
27
27
26
26
27
28
30
31
33
35
36
38
40
Total
Average
change
nights
Total
Share of
nights in Nights in
nights HMGSA b
TITEc
TITE
HMGSA
Total
per visitor
million
per cent
million
$ million
20
19
15
18
15
18
20
23
21
18
17
18
16
16
17
18
19
19
20
21
21
22
5
5
4
5
4
5
6
6
6
5
5
6
5
5
5
5
6
6
6
6
6
7
56
56
48
55
50
55
60
66
64
61
62
63
57
60
63
66
69
72
75
78
81
84
n.a.
-0.3
-14.6
15.9
-9.3
9.5
10.3
9.1
-2.2
-4.6
0.5
1.8
-8.5
4.0
5.5
4.9
4.3
4.1
4.0
4.0
3.9
3.8
24.4
22.4
31.4
31.2
30.8
30.4
28.9
23.2
29.0
28.8
30.9
31.6
31.9
30.0
30.9
30.7
30.8
31.0
31.1
31.2
31.4
31.5
1.4
1.2
1.5
1.7
1.5
1.7
1.7
1.5
1.9
1.8
1.9
2.0
1.8
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.6
14.7
19.0
12.8
12.3
16.6
14.2
15.6
19.4
14.4
11.5
12.2
9.5
9.9
10.9
13.0
12.3
12.2
12.0
11.8
11.6
11.4
11.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
289
275
317
434
387
344
374
440
481
317
348
362
343
356
378
392
402
412
422
433
443
454
per cent
$
5
4
6
7
7
6
6
6
7
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5.0
4.7
1.7
5.2
1.6
-
5.2
6.9
-3.8
2.8
6.3
4.7
-0.8
4.3
-2.4
0.2
0.8
-
1.8
2.7
-9.5
-7.1
-0.6
-1.4
0.6
4.1
0.6
-1.5
1.9
-
-0.5
1.4
5.1
6.5
2.1
0.2
2.4
5.0
3.5
3.5
4.0
-
0.4
4.4
-1.6
2.8
2.4
-1.5
2.1
4.5
-0.4
2.6
1.2
-
3.5
4.8
-6.7
-2.3
2.8
1.6
1.5
4.5
2.1
1.0
2.9
-
0.0
2.9
1.7
4.6
2.3
-0.6
Numbers shaded are forecasts
a Visiting friends and relatives
b Hotels, motels, guesthouses, and serviced apartments
c Total Inbound Tourism Expenditure, real, base = Quarter 4 2012
d Other refers to education and employment visitors w ho stay in Australia for one year or less. On average, these visitors spend more and stay longer than the average tourist.
Historical estimates for international visitor nights have changed due to a slight change in the methodology
The sum of purpose of visit categories does not add to the total as the total includes estimates for those not reporting a purpose of visit to Australia
40
Arrivals
Expenditure
2003-04
2006-07
2009-10
2012-13
66
2015-16
2018-19
2021-22
250
50
300
Arrivals (000s)
60
70
350
400
Expenditure ($m)
80
450
90
500
South Africa - Arrivals, 000s (LHS) and Expenditure, $m (RHS), 2001-01 to 2021-22
2000-01
184
941
671
884
739
293
204
680
484
170
637
769
975
954
994
921
829
741
653
573
493
414
Rest of the World
Table 34
International visitor arrivals: Rest of the World
Business
VFRa
Holiday
Otherd
Total
Total
change
('000)
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22
Compound annual
growth rate (%)
2001/02-2006/07
2006/07-2011/12
2011/12-2016/17
2016/17-2021/22
2001/02-2011/12
2011/12-2021/22
Average
nights
per cent
Total
Share of
nights in Nights in
TITEc
TITE
HMGSA
Total
per visitor
per cent
million
$ million
$
11.4
13.6
9.6
14.5
12.6
11.1
11.9
11.6
9.0
10.0
9.2
8.1
7.8
8.9
9.2
9.0
8.9
8.9
8.8
8.8
8.8
8.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.6
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.1
1.2
1.2
1.3
1.3
1.4
1 056
706
597
561
768
902
846
936
1 175
1 109
1 175
1 172
1 193
1 236
1 264
1 352
1 399
1 446
1 494
1 545
1 597
1 651
4 739
4 026
3 787
3 353
4 374
4 747
4 029
4 180
4 617
4 279
4 455
4 247
4 193
4 192
4 114
4 236
4 235
4 236
4 236
4 243
4 249
4 259
0.0
b
million
5.5
3.9
4.1
4.0
4.1
5.2
6.0
7.4
9.0
8.5
9.3
9.8
10.4
10.5
11.0
11.8
12.4
13.0
13.7
14.3
15.1
15.8
nights HMGSA
28
21
19
21
23
31
34
34
39
35
37
40
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
45
33
30
32
34
35
39
41
48
54
57
62
62
63
66
69
71
74
77
80
82
85
83
67
62
66
71
78
85
92
101
107
107
107
112
116
121
125
130
134
138
142
146
150
47
36
32
35
37
43
47
52
62
57
57
60
64
68
72
75
79
82
86
89
93
97
223
175
158
167
176
190
210
224
255
259
264
276
284
295
307
319
330
341
353
364
376
388
n.a.
-21.4
-10.1
6.1
5.0
8.3
10.5
6.6
13.7
1.8
1.7
4.6
3.1
3.6
4.3
3.8
3.5
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.2
3.2
24.7
22.4
26.0
23.9
23.6
27.3
28.8
33.1
35.2
32.7
35.4
35.6
36.6
35.6
35.9
36.9
37.5
38.1
38.7
39.4
40.1
40.7
10.4
3.6
5.0
5.7
3.7
-
5.1
9.0
-2.6
6.1
3.7
3.5
9.3
4.7
5.0
5.6
-
4.4
10.2
-7.4
2.1
6.7
1.1
1.8
3.0
3.8
5.7
3.7
-
1.0
4.7
1.9
6.8
3.6
-0.1
2.2
3.6
3.0
4.2
3.3
-
1.7
5.0
-0.5
4.4
3.4
0.1
6.9
6.4
4.9
5.4
4.6
-
4.8
9.6
-5.0
4.1
5.2
0.5
2.0
3.3
3.4
4.9
3.5
-
1.4
4.9
0.7
5.6
3.5
0.0
Numbers shaded are forecasts
a Visiting friends and relatives
b Hotels, motels, guesthouses, and serviced apartments
c Total Inbound Tourism Expenditure, real, base = Quarter 4 2012
d Other refers to education and employment visitors w ho stay in Australia for one year or less. On average, these visitors spend more and stay longer than the average tourist.
Historical estimates for international visitor nights have changed due to a slight change in the methodology
The sum of purpose of visit categories does not add to the total as the total includes estimates for those not reporting a purpose of visit to Australia
100
Arrivals
Expenditure
2000-01
2003-04
2006-07
2009-10
2012-13
67
2015-16
2018-19
2021-22
500
150
200
1000
Expenditure ($m)
Arrivals (000s)
250
300
1500
350
400
2000
Rest of the World - Arrivals, 000s (LHS) and Expenditure, $m (RHS), 2001-01 to 2021-22