20 January 2014
South Ayrshire Council response to NRS sub-national population projections
– proposed migration assumptions 2012-Based
The net migration assumptions for South Ayrshire, produced by the National
Records of Scotland (NRS) in relation to the 2012-based population projections are +250 per annum in the short term (2012-2018) increasing to
+300 per annum in the long term (2018-2037).
South Ayrshire Council is of the view that these net migration assumptions for
South Ayrshire are too low.
Since 2003, South Ayrshire has experienced net in migration, with there being
4,298 more people coming to live in South Ayrshire than have left during this ten year period.
The Scotland figures are the assumptions set by ONS for the in and out flows.
The scaling factors are calculated by the difference between the ONS flow figure for Scotland for each year of the projection period and the five year average for Scotland, divided by the five year average for Scotland. Within
Scotland migration is not scaled.
Unfortunately, scaling factors applied by NRS to the flows outwith Scotland for the 2012-based migration assumptions have altered South
Ayrshire’s net migration levels quite significantly.
The table below shows that, as a result of scaling, South Ayrshire is shown to have lost 113 people. Before scaling, the net migration five year average was
+391 against +278 after scaling, which NRS rounded up to +300 to provide the long-term migration assumption.
Net migration In-migration
Outwith
Scotland
1208
Within
Scotland
2376
Out-migration
Outwith
Scotland
Within Scotland
1020 2173 391 Straight 5 Year Average
(2008-2012)
5 Year Average scaled
(2008-2012)
Difference After Scaling
1094
114
2376
0
1019
1
2173
0
278
113
South Ayrshire has significantly higher in and out flows within Scotland than outwith Scotland, and the scaling methodology used clearly suppresses these flows.
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In the last two years, over 500 new dwellings have been completed in South
Ayrshire 1 . On speaking with our Planning Service, it is envisaged that completion levels will return to approximately 350/400 per annum within the next 5/7 years as was the case pre-2007.
South Ayrshire Council continues to promote the area and, in particular, to regenerate the local economy as follows:

We have an adequate, effective land supply. There are no land allocation barriers in place in terms of new house building;

School attainment levels are above average;

Attractive environment;

Average house prices across South Ayrshire are higher than average reflecting the attractiveness of the area;

Encourage the regeneration of town centres;

A commitment to ensuring the economy is competitive and well served by its infrastructure.
Taking the above into account, we would argue for a short term migration assumption of +300/year and a long-term migration assumption of
+350/year to 2037.
1 Scottish Government, Communities Analytical Services (Housing Statistics)
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