Subsidence and Carbon Loss in drained tropical peatlands (Hooijer et al., 2012) – A Critical Review Paramananthan, S.1, Ramadason, K.2 and Tan, Y.A.2 1 Param Agricultural Soil Surveys Petaling Jaya, Selangor 2 Malaysian Palm Oil Board Bangi, Malaysia BACKGROUND The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), in January 2012 published an analysis of the life-cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with palm oil based biodiesel and renewable diesel. The results of the analysis indicate that, when compared with petroleum diesel baseline, palm oil-based biofuels reduce GHG emissions by 17% and 11% respectively, and thus do not meet the statutory 20% GHG emissions reduction threshold for the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) program (EPA 2012). Based on the EPA’s analysis, one of the major sources of GHG emissions was emissions resulting from drained organic peat soils preceding the development of new palm oil plantations. The EPA used a peat soil emission factor of 95 tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) per hectare of drained peat soil, based on Hooijer et al. (2012), to help estimate the total GHG emissions from the expansion of peat soil drainage due to development to oil palm. In order to ensure that the EPA has taken into account the best available information on this important emissions factor for the life-cycle GHG analyses of palm oil-based biofuels, the Agency asked RTI International to facilitate an independent peer review. The purpose of this review was to request additional scientific input about the Agency’s assessment of the average annual GHG emissions from tropical peatlands resulting from the development of the land for production of palm oil for use in EPA’s life-cycle GHG analysis of palm oil-based biofuels. RTI selected five peer reviewers who are experts in GHG emissions from peat soils to review EPA’s application of peat soil emissions factor and to provide feedback on the use of this factor. Each of the experts were asked to respond to five questions that seek to address the relevance and appropriateness of the emission factor. SELECTION OF THE FIVE PEER REVIEWERS The EPA requested recommendations for the peer-review candidates from various organizations including the Embassies of Malaysia and Indonesia. A list of 21 was compiled and submitted to RTI. RTI based on their own resources, added additional candidates. Candidates (4) who were involved in the Hooijer et al. (2012) were excluded. Based on a number of other criteria, the following were selected: • • • • • Scott Bridgham, Ph.D. – Professor University of Oregon Kristell Hergouale, Ph.D. – Scientist, Centre for International Forestry Research Monique Leclerc, Ph.D. – Regents Professor, University of Georgia Supiandi Sabiham, Ph.D. – Professor Bogor Agricultural University Arina Schrier, Ph.D. – Climate and Environmental International Consultancy – Owner Subsidence and Carbon Loss in drained tropical peatlands (Hooijer et al., 2012) – A Critical Review EPA reiterates that these 5 selected candidates were selected from recommendations provided for by: • • • • Ambassador for Indonesia – one candidate Ambassador for Malaysia – one candidate International Council on Clean Transportation – one candidate Recommended by RTI – two candidates RTI summarized the panel’s response below:Three (Bridgham, Schrier, Leclerc) out of the five reviewers agreed that the emission factor used in EPA’s analysis of palm oil-based biofuels is an appropriate coefficient to use based on current scientific understanding, but emphasized that the emission factor should be re-evaluated as meta-analyses of existing research are conducted and/or as additional research becomes available. Two reviewers stated that EPA has likely overestimated the carbon emissions. One (Hergouale) of these two reviewers recommend using the peat soil emission factors published by the IPCC (Drösler et al., 2013), while the other reviewer (Sabiham) recommended using peat soil emission factors published by Melling et al. (2007). The five questions that each of the reviewers was asked to comment on were: Charge Questions Question 1 – Overarching Charge Question Given the three criteria outlined in the Technical Work Product and the estimates available in the literature, did the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) choose the most appropriate value for the peat soil emission factor? If not, please provide a recommendation on the most appropriate peat soil emission factor to use in EPA’s analysis, with a detailed explanation. Three Criteria: Hooijer et al. (2012) – 95 tonnes CO2 ha-1 yr-1 IPCC (Drösler et al., 2014) – 40 tonnes CO2 ha-1 yr-1 Melling et al., 2007 – 41 tonnes CO2 ha-1 yr-1 Question 2 – Potential Adjustment of Emissions Factor from Hooijer et al. (2012) Some commenters have raised questions about particular values used in the Hooijer et al. (2012) study (e.g., organic carbon content and peat bulk density). Would you recommend that EPA use the overall approach and data published in Hooijer et al. (2012) but use a different value for: (a) organic carbon content, (b) peat bulk density, (c) the percent of subsidence due to oxidation, or (d) another parameter (please specify)? Please explain your recommendation and provide supporting documentation. Question 3 – Directionality of estimate EPA recognizes that the Hooijer et al. (2012) study that forms the foundation of our estimate of peat soil emissions was conducted under specific circumstances. For example, it was conducted in a limited number of plantations on the island of Sumatra. For the reasons listed in the TWP, we believe this is the best available estimate of peat soil emissions, but we recognize that numerous factors could cause 2 Subsidence and Carbon Loss in drained tropical peatlands (Hooijer et al., 2012) – A Critical Review this estimate to be higher or lower than the average emission factor for peat soils drained for oil palm across Southeast Asia. Please discuss whether the emission factor value used by EPA (95 tCO2/ha/yr) is likely to overestimate, underestimate (and if so by how much) or provide a plausible estimate of average greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from peat soil drainage for oil palm across Southeast Asia. In particular, please discuss whether the following factors are likely to make EPA’s emission factor an overestimate or an underestimate: a. Variation in the type of peat soil (mineral content, carbon content, depth, extent of degradation, etc.). b. Precipitation regime (annual rainfall, timing of rainfall, etc.). c. Differing water management practices at plantations. d. Different types of plantations (e.g., oil palm versus acacia). e. The approach used by Hooijer et al. (2012) to estimate emissions during the first five years after drainage. f. Omission of methane and nitrous oxide emissions. g. Omission of emissions due to fire (As discussed in the TWP, omission of this factor will cause EPA’s emission factor to underestimate emissions, but we welcome comments about how large this underestimation may be). h. Omission of incidentally drained peat swamps adjoining the plantations. Question 4 – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report IPCC (2014) lists a Tier 1 emission factor of 40 tCO2/ha/year for tropical drained oil palm plantations. This value does not include emissions for the first 6 years after drainage. However, studies have shown that a pulse of higher emissions occurs right after drainage. The IPCC report also gives a default DOC emission factor of 3 tCO2/ha/yr. In addition, the IPCC gives guidance on quantifying emissions from fires. The report gives a default emission factor of 1,701 gCO2/(kg dry matter burned) for tropical organic soil and a default dry matter consumption value of 155 t/ha for prescribed fires in the tropics.1 a. Would it be appropriate for EPA to use the IPCC Tier 1 default emission factor of 40 tCO2/ha/year, or is it scientifically justified to use a different number based on more detailed information? b. Should the emission factor that EPA uses include the emissions pulse that occurs in the first several years immediately following drainage? c. Should EPA include DOC and fire emission factors in the overall emission factor? If so, are the IPCC emission factors appropriate to use, or are there better estimates for EPA’s purpose? d. There are also erosion losses of particulate organic carbon (POC) and waterborne transport of dissolved inorganic carbon (primarily dissolved CO2) derived from autotrophic and heterotrophic respiration within the organic soil. The IPCC concluded that at present the science and available data are not sufficient to provide guidance on CO2 emissions or removals associated with 3 Subsidence and Carbon Loss in drained tropical peatlands (Hooijer et al., 2012) – A Critical Review these waterborne carbon fluxes. Do you agree that the science on these factors is not sufficient for EPA to consider losses of POC and dissolved inorganic carbon in its peat soil emission factor? Question 5 – Additional input Please provide any additional scientific information that you believe the EPA should consider regarding the Agency’s assessment of the average annual GHG emissions from draining tropical peatlands for palm oil cultivation for use in EPA’s lifecycle GHG analysis of palm oil-based biofuels. INTRODUCTION The EPA’s acceptance of the paper on the ‘Subsidence and Carbon Loss in drained tropical peatlands’ (Hooijer et al., 2012) with its conclusion of 95 tCO2 eq. ha-1 yr-1 over the 25-year life-cycle of a crop like oil palm and Acacia plantations in Sumatera needs firstly to be evaluated critically. Hooijer et al. (2012) report that in tropical peatland areas are different compare to the Fenlands of the UK, the Netherlands, Venice Lagoon in Italy, the Everglades and Sacramento Delta in the United States and Lake Hula in Israel where a total subsidence of 200 to 600 cm occurred over 40 to 130 years bringing surface levels close to or below sealevels. In all these cases peat oxidation is reported to be the main cause of subsidence. They also report that the net carbon losses and resultant CO2 emissions from peatlands drained for agriculture in Malaysia and Indonesia range from <40 t CO2 ha-1 yr-1 (Melling et al., 2005; Murdiyarso et al., 2010; Herchoualc’h and Verchot, 2011) to >60 t ha-1 yr-1 at watertable depths of around 0.7 m. Hooijer et al. (2012) state that the uncertainty in the rate of carbon emission from drained tropical peatland is caused partly on the reliance on measurements of gaseous CO2 emissions that are difficult to conduct and interpret. They add that unless CO2 emission studies are carried out on a large scale (i.e. a large number of measurements conducted over a range of environmental conditions (in terms of watertable, vegetation cover and temperature), data uncertainty is considerable (Couwenberg et al., 2010; Murdiyarso et al., 2010; Jauhiainen et al., 2012). A few studies quoted estimates of CO2 emissions from oil palm plantations on peat have been based on fewer than 50 observations including replicates at single locations (Murayama and Bakar, 1996; Melling et al., 2005). Few studies have estimated net CO2 emissions resulting from peat oxidation alone, excluding root respiration. Also, gas flux measurements do not account for carbon losses in discharge water (DOC and POC) that leave the peatlands in drainage water (Alkhatib et al., 2007; Baum et al., 2007; Moore et al., 2011). Hooijer et al. (2012) claim that measurements of land subsidence in combination with data on peat characteristics, provide a direct approach to carbon loss assessment that is relatively straightforward to conduct in the field and to interpret. All impacts, on the carbon stock, they claim are integrated over time without requiring instantaneous measurements, thereby providing a more accurate value for total carbon loss even if the individual loss components (CO2, CH4, DOC and POC) cannot be separated using this method. MEASUREMENTS/METHODOLOGY USED BY HOOIJER ET AL., 2012 The measurements and methodology used by Hooijer et al. (2012) is summarised in Table 1. It is clear from this table that while over 200 sites were measured, the sites selected do not reflect the current practices used by the oil palm and acacia plantations planted on peatlands today. This will be elaborated below. 4 Subsidence and Carbon Loss in drained tropical peatlands (Hooijer et al., 2012) – A Critical Review Table 1. Summary of locations and measurements made by Hooijer et al. (2012). Crop/ Vegetation Location and No. of Sites (218) (GPS Coordinates) Study Period Drainage Intensity Initiation of Data Recording Data Recorded Subsidence Measurements Water-table • 3-12 months after installation. • Discarded 3-14 sites 1 year after 2 years installation, and monitoring. • Used elevation data from company records from elevation surveys one year after drainage. 2-12 weekly intervals. • 2, 4-17 and 18 years intervals. • 22 locations. • 19 drained 4 to 7 years earlier. • 3 drained 2 years earlier. • One location • 2, 4-17, 18 years after drainage. 20072010 • Width 5-8 m • Depth 3 m • Intensity 500800 m apart • 3-8 years after drainage • Average 6 years • 14-19 years after drainage • Average 18 years • One year • July 2009 – June 2010 • Company records. • Monitored 2 weekly intervals. 2-12 weekly intervals. - - 2-12 weekly intervals. Acacia Riau (125) 0.595/ 102.334 Oil Palm Jambi (42) 1.566/ 103.601 20072010 • Width 5-8 m • Depth 3 m • Intensity 500800 m apart Forest Riau (51) 0.595/ 102.334 20072010 • Drained (not known) (site 2 km from Acacia site) Bulk Density 5 - Peat Maturity/ Thickness Ash Content Visual 223 sub – samples (Loss on Ignition) Visual None - - Subsidence and Carbon Loss in drained tropical peatlands (Hooijer et al., 2012) – A Critical Review NEED FOR PEAT CHARACTERISTICS SUBSIDENCE MEASUREMENTS AND PEAT The paper lacks detailed peat characteristics in the sites where the measurements were made leading to the possibility of misrepresentation/misinterpretation of the data. A basic factor in site characterization of peat is peat maturity (sapric/hemic/fibric) and the description of the peat profile – particularly on tropical peats. Unlike temperate peats tropical peats often have large pieces of wood – undecomposed or decomposed. The presence of wood makes soil sampling for bulk density and subsidence measurements difficult. Most International Classification such as the IUSS WRB 2014 and the USDA’s Keys to Soil Taxonomy (Soil Survey Staff, 2010) fail to recognize this difference. The Malaysian Soil Taxonomy (Paramananthan, 2010a, b) does. Consequently, recent work has shown that these International Classifications fail to fully describe and map tropical peats (Wüst et al., 2003; Veloo et al., 2014a, b). These works have shown that peat maturity and the presence of wood influence the performance of oil palm cultivation on peats. It is further suggested that these characteristics may also influence GHG measurements on tropical peats. Paramananthan (2015, in press) suggest that the wide variation in data on performance, GHG emissions from tropical peats is due to inadequate site characterization. The technical journals continue to prolong is inadequacy by not requiring publications in their journals to fully characterized their organic soils instead of simply calling them ‘peats’. Thus, Hooijer et al. (2012) do not fully characterize their sites. Their Figure 1 suggests that the upper 60 cm is sapric – possibly due to the fire that was used in land clearing as stated in the paper or due to fire which took place in Southeast Asia resulting in most peats having only sapric materials in the upper 50-60 cm (Paramananthan, 2014). Most publications suggest that most tropical peats are fibric (IPCCC, 2012). This is not true in the upper 100 cm of the over 1 million hectares of tropical peats which the senior author has surveyed both in Malaysia and Indonesia they were mostly sapric. Most workers fail to apply the rubbing test as required by Soil Taxonomy (Soil Survey Staff, 2010). The test requires that large fragments (>2 cm diameter) be removed and the fine fraction rubbed before estimating the fibre content. Under tropical conditions with its high ambient soil temperature and watertables below 100 cm in dry periods, the fine fraction in peats decompose, but retain their fibric form as pseudomorph until they are rubbed. Hooijer et al. (2012) applied a visual test to determine peat maturity. This is inherently wrong. We need to follow a set of correct methodologies, if not, we will continue to prolong our misinterpretations. COMPARISON OF ACACIA TO OIL PALM The two plantation crops used in the study, Acacia and oil palm require different types of management in terms of land preparation, drainage design and intensity, fertilizer regimes and harvesting methods and harvesting cycles/frequency. One can safely assume that both areas were logged before clear felling and burning before the crops were planted. Hence one can also assume that during logging drainage was implemented to facilitate logging. Logging does not require good water management but often deep drains are dug to lower the water-table to facilitate the logging. Moreover, since fire was used in the oil palm site as a means of land clearing, one can safely assume that the peat at least to a depth of one metre was dry at the time of the fire. It is therefore possible that the surface sapric layer reported was due to the fire used in land clearing. Further, the type of water management used should have been different for oil palm and Acacia. Acacia is a dicot with a taproot system while oil palm is a monocot and hence have completely different rooting systems and different water management regimes. 6 Subsidence and Carbon Loss in drained tropical peatlands (Hooijer et al., 2012) – A Critical Review Figure 1. Cross section along typical study transect in Sumatera, 6 years after drainage, showing variation in peat depth, average water level, land use and monitoring location density (Hooijer et al., 2012). DRAINAGE DESIGN The drainage design in both the oil palm and Acacia was similar. The layout and intensity used in the two areas is summarised in Table 1. It is most likely that this drainage design and intensity report was inherited from the logging phase. No mention of control structures is reported in the paper. Figure 1 in the paper indicates that in the dry season, the watertable was at one metre depth. It appears that the two plantations do not follow current Best Management Practices used today. Since 1986 after United Plantations published their paper, Gurmit et al. (1986) the drainage layout and intensity and types of drains used as part of the BMPs for oil palm follow this (Figures 2 and 3). Further prior to planting, compaction is practised (Figure 4). It is clear therefore, that the oil palm plantation and possibly the acacia plantation did not follow the current BMPs which includes a NO BURN Policy. It is not clear why the acacia plantation carried out repeated elevation survey after drainage was implemented. Thus, based on Figure 5, the authors concluded that the acacia plantation subsided an average of 75 cm in the first year and 67 cm in the 2nd to 4th year giving a total subsidence of 142 cm in the first five years. This in our humble opinion, is erroneous. Subsequent subsidence was 5 cm yr-1. It was assumed that the oil palm subsidence was the same. No mention of cultural practices of compaction prior to planting of oil palm or acacia is mentioned. The weir which was constructed was two years after the initial drainage. If water control was to be practiced, the weirs should have been there from the beginning. It appears therefore that the total subsidence of 212 cm over 18 years is a gross overestimate. The wide variations in the watertable depths 0.47 m to 0.98 m for acacia and 0.33 to 1.03 m for oil palm clearly shows that the watertable was NOT managed well in both the plantations. The subsidence rate of 5 cm yr-1 in an oil palm plantation in Johor, Malaysia for 14-28 years old palm (Woosten et al., 1997) was without water controls as reported by Salmah (1992). 7 Subsidence and Carbon Loss in drained tropical peatlands (Hooijer et al., 2012) – A Critical Review Type and size of drains Type of drain Width (m) Depth (m) Top Bottom Field 1.0-2.0 0.5-0.6 0.9-1.0 Collection 1.8-2.5 0.6-0.9 1.2-1.8 Main 3.0-6.0 1.2-1.8 1.8-2.5 Source: Gurmit et al. (1986) Figure 2. Layout plan and size of the drainage system in peat areas. Source: Gurmit et al. (1986) Figure 3. System of consolidation of harvesting paths and planting rows in peat areas. 8 Subsidence and Carbon Loss in drained tropical peatlands (Hooijer et al., 2012) – A Critical Review Figure 4. Compaction of peat before planting (Source: Proceedings of the Workshop on Standard Operating Procedures (SOP) for Oil Palm Cultivation On Peat (MPOB 2010). 9 Subsidence and Carbon Loss in drained tropical peatlands (Hooijer et al., 2012) – A Critical Review Figure 5. Top: average subsidence rates as measured at 14 locations in Acacia plantations, over the first 9 years after drainage. Bottom: as measured at a larger number of drained peatland locations in Sumatra (this study), Malaysia (from Wösten et al., 1997, based on DID Malaysia, 1996), Mildred Island in the California Sacramento Delta (Deverel and Leighton, 2010) and Florida Everglades. The Everglades record is averaged from three records presented by Stephens and Speir (1969); as the first two years after completing the drainage system in 1912 were missing from the subsidence record, which started in 1914, we added a subsidence of 22.5 cm yr-1 for those years, which is the average subsidence rate over 1,914 and 1,915 and therefore almost certainly an underestimate of actual initial subsidence. Also shown are long-term calculated subsidence rates for SE Asia, applying both the relation determined for Florida Everglades (Stephens et al., 1984), assuming a water depth of 0.7m and an average temperature of 30°C, and the relation found for SE Asia in this paper (Hooijer et al., 2012). 10 Subsidence and Carbon Loss in drained tropical peatlands (Hooijer et al., 2012) – A Critical Review BULK DENSITY Bulk density in peat is very difficult to measure due to the presence of wood. Moreover at depths below one metre (below the permanent watertable), it is near impossible. Our experience in Malaysia is that even with two water pumps working, we often face a losing battle with the water rising very fast. The very low bulk densities reported in the paper even in the surface layers of 0.15 g cm-3 near the surface to 0.075 g cm-3 at depth below 0.5 m are very low figures especially in the oil palm where harvesting would already have been done. Below 1.0 m, values of 0.073 g cm-3 for acacia and 0.078 g cm-3 for oil palm are extremely low. One wonders how the oil palm or acacia were harvested. Many of our peats in Sarawak have undecomposed wood that needs to be chain sawed to dig drains (Figure 6). These logs do not decompose and makes oil palm less suitable on such soils – both in terms of yield and cost of development (Veloo et al., 2014a, b). Figure 6. Presence of wood in Tropical Lowland Peats (Source: Paramananthan, 2008b). Figure 7a. Leaning of palms on peat. Figure 7b. Excessive leaning of palms on peat. 11 Subsidence and Carbon Loss in drained tropical peatlands (Hooijer et al., 2012) – A Critical Review SUBSIDENCE RATES The effect of drainage and subsidence of the peat on crops such as coconuts and oil palm is well recorded. Subsidence results in leaning palms with exposed roots (Figure 7a & b). These observations were mainly in the early plantings before United Plantation’s pioneer work of Gurmit et al. (1986) proposed controlled drainage to minimise subsidence of the peat. Thus many of the data on subsidence reported in the literature (Woosten et al., 1997; DID Malaysia, 1996; Mohammad et al., 2009) often quote values which may not be applicable today. For example the values of 4.6 cm yr-1 for 14 to 28 year old palm in Johor were high as these areas were drained for flood mitigation (Salmah, 1992). In the old days, the concept of deep drains to remove and lower the watertable received priority in peat areas. Today, the experience of United Plantation prevails and water control and management are more important and critical. On another point, one cannot use an universal value for subsidence (and decomposition) as mentioned by Hooijer et al. (2012). The values of 3 cm yr-1 for the Everglades (Stephens and Speir, 1969) over more than 50 years. Temperate and boreal peats do not decompose the whole year. Unlike tropical peats, due to their higher temperature with no seasonal change will give higher decomposition rates with the same type of management. Thus, it would be unfair and unscientific to apply a single default rate for both temperate and tropical peats. Added to this also the fact that growth rates and hence litter production and carbon sequestration is continuous and higher in the tropics compared to temperate and boreal areas. We in the Tropics decompose more but also replace more. Thus, it is not surprising to note that Stephens et al. (1984) calculated that if the Everglades was in the Tropics, it would subside 8 cm yr-1, a value higher than the 4.0-5.5 cm yr-1 expected in tropical peatlands after an initial phase of rapid subsidence. Kool et al. (2006) based on measurements in Central Kalimantan in an area subject to logging report they recorded a subsidence of 2.2 m to 4.0 m but the actual decomposition was only 2 cm to 47 cm. It is apparent from this data during logging which takes place prior to oil palm or acacia cultivation the peat dome collapses as large drains are dug with little or no control. Thus by the time the oil palm is planted, this major subsidence has already taken place. Thus it is possible that Hooijer et al. (2012) have interpreted the early subsidence rate of 142 cm to be due to oil palm. This is probably due to this logging. DOC AND POC The paper by Hooijer et al. (2012) quote that flux measurements do not account for carbon losses in drainage water (Alkhatib et al., 2007; Baum et al., 2007; Moore et al., 2011). Further, they quote that efforts to calculate the net change in peat carbon stock from the difference between all estimated fluxes into and out of the peat including changes in biomass (Herchoualc’h and Verchot, 2011), have been inconsistent because of limited data available and cumulative uncertainties associated with each component. Hooijer et al. (2012) describe the peat at their sites at depths (>1 m) as going towards hemic. Peat at greater depth was nearly always fibric, and often woody, except the lowest few metres where the peat was hemic or sapric (why?) and sometimes described as muddy (hardly a scientific term), indicating mixed mineral and organic content. It is clear from their descriptions that POC have settled from the upper layers to the base of the peat which is in contact with the underlying substratum. Similar observations have been reported by Paramananthan (2014) in Sarawak (Figure 8). Such material is termed humilluvic material in Soil Taxonomy (Soil Survey Staff, 2010). This is carbon which has literally moved from the surface layers to settle at the bottom and these were not included in the calculations of Hooijer et al. (2012). Further, loss of DOC in the water in the drains and POC which moves laterally and settles in the drains is not accounted for. It is for this reason that the drains in the oil palm estate need to be desilted regularly. This redistribution of POC and DOC could be substantial particularly in the initial drainage and 12 Subsidence and Carbon Loss in drained tropical peatlands (Hooijer et al., 2012) – A Critical Review continues in subsequent years at a lower rate. This will result in a lowering of BD in the surface layers and this will be compensated by a collapse of the peat causing high bulk density and not due solely to decomposition as claimed. SUBSIDENCE RATES OVER OIL PALM Hooijer et al. (2012) concluded based on their study that the subsidence rates in the first five years after drainage to be 142 cm and subsequent to that to be 5 cm/year. They also concluded that 75% of the cumulative subsidence was caused by peat oxidation during the first 5 years. They therefore concluded that peat oxidation after 18 years in oil palm was 92%. Based on their calculations, the average rate of carbon loss over the first 5 years was 178 t CO2 eq. ha-1 yr-1 which reduced to 73 t CO2 eq. ha-1 yr-1 over the subsequent years potentially resulting in an average loss of 100 t CO2 eq. ha-1 yr-1 over 25 years. With improved water management, they add that a 20% reduction is possible. Most oil palm estates on peat today consider replanting after 20 years and hence based on their subsidence rates, we would have lost about 217 cm of peat thickness (142 + 5 x 15 cm). This implies that areas mapped as shallow (50-100 cm) peat would no longer have any peat on the soil surface within 5 years. The changes in depth of the initial peat depth is shown below. Initial Depth of Peat Shallow peat (50-100 cm) Moderately deep peat (100-150 cm) Deep peat (150-300 cm) Very deep peat (>300 cm) Result at the Subsidence of Hooijer et al. (2012) Within <5 years, no more peat Within 5 years, only 8 cm of peat left on the surface and would no longer qualify to be called peat. Less than 100 cm peat left after the 1st cycle (20 years) of oil palm and none left after the 2nd cycle. We would have lost close to 417 cm of peat (217 + 100 + 100 cm) after the 3rd cycle of oil palms. This obviously cannot be true because today after 3 cycles, we still have many oil palm estates on deep peat. Figure 8. Humilluvic carbon at the organic soil material/mineral soil material interface (Source: Paramananthan, 2014). 13 Subsidence and Carbon Loss in drained tropical peatlands (Hooijer et al., 2012) – A Critical Review Loss of Peat Thickness after cycles of oil palm (20 years): • • • 1st cycle 2nd cycle 3rd cycle 142 + 75 cm 217 cm + 100 cm 317 cm + 100 cm = = = 217 cm 317 cm 417 cm If the subsidence rates reported by Hooijer et al., 2012 (Table 2) are to be accepted, then today both Malaysia and Indonesia would have probably reduced the peat hectarage by more than 50% and the carbon stock in our peats left would probably have declined considerably. Thus, all this talk about Malaysia and Indonesian peats contributing to high amounts of CO 2 emissions are probably no longer true. The scenario of Hooijer et al. (2012) also does not take into consideration current best management practices which many estates in the region are practising. The addition of carbon from the oil palm fronds and EFB as part of this BMPs also replaces a lot of carbon lost via decomposition of the peat per se. However some CO2 would be contributed by the decomposition of these by-products. Plans are afoot to remove about 50% of this by-product biomass and to use them to extract valuable chemicals. Table 2. Subsidence rate and equivalent oxidation (summarised from Hooijer et al., 2012). Location % of Subsidence Equated to Oxidation Source Everglades, Florida 78 Stephens and Speir (1969) Sacremento Delta 68 Deverel and Rojstaczer (1996) Deverel and Leighton (2010) 61 Woosten et al., 1997 DID Malaysia, 1996 50-70 Murayama and Bakar (1996) Volk, 1973 Stephens et al., 1984 Brady, 1997 Johor, Malaysia Berg, 2000 Jambi, Indonesia 92 (O.P.) Hooijer et al., 2012 75 (acacia) Sensitivity: 77 (O.P.) 132 Conclusion Subsidence 50 years – Sub-tropical peat. Also confirmed by flux. Measurements Neller (1944). Lab measurements Volk (1973) Flux and carbon balance measurements 70 years. Shallow peat. Double the subsidence rate increase in temperature. Initial high rate due to labile carbon which is finite. Once this is gone, recalcitrant carbon are more resistant to decomposition. 18 years after drainage. 6 years after drainage. or 73 t CO2 eq ha-1 yr-1 – steady state. or 132 t CO2 eq ha-1 yr-1 – 1st 5 years rather than 178 t CO2 eq ha-1 yr-1 Jauhiainen et al. (2012) – chamber method. 80 t ha-1 yr-1 Acacia Forest Jambi, Indonesia Riau, Indonesia Remarks 1st 5 years – 142 cm After 5 years – 5 cm-1 year 14 Subsidence and Carbon Loss in drained tropical peatlands (Hooijer et al., 2012) – A Critical Review CONCLUSION Thus one has to conclude that the findings of Hooijer et al. (2012) should be viewed with scepticism. Firstly, they are comparing oil palm and acacia which are different crops with different management practices and life-cycles. As mentioned by them, the first 5 years are critical. Their data on subsidence for this period was based mainly on elevation surveys carried out in the acacia plantations after logging and drainage was done and after the crop was planted. Field experience of such surveys suggest errors can be 1-2 m different as when walking in peat swamp one seldom steps on the ground but on stumps or logs scattered on the surface. Why did the acacia plantation conduct repeated elevation surveys after planting and drainage? This was not explained. Therefore the data for the first five years which was critical is actually questionable secondary data. The authors suggest that primary compaction is almost equal to decomposition. Kool et al. (2006) who concluded that subsidence does not mean and is never equal to decomposition. Their work in Central Kalimantan suggest that during logging, a 2.2 to 4.0 m subsidence in the peat only results in a 2.0 to 46.9 cm of decomposition. Hence the high subsidence rate of 142 cm recorded by Hooijer et al. (2012) was probably due to logging, not oil palm. Consequent to the above discussion, we are of the opinion that the data collected by Hooijer et al. (2012) are questionable in today’s scenario and thus should be rejected. We are therefore of the opinion that the data produced by Melling et al. (2013) and Herchoualc’h and Verchot (2011) of around 40 t CO2 ha-1 yr-1 is probably closer to the truth. REFERENCES Alkhatib, M., Jennerjahn, T.C. and Samiaji, J., 2007. Biogeochemistry of the Dumai river estuary, Sumatra, Indonesia, a tropical blackwater river, Limnol. Oceanogr., 52, 2410– 2417. Baum, A., Rixen, T. and Samiaji, J., 2007. Relevance of peat draining rivers in central Sumatra for the riverine input of dissolved organic carbon into the ocean, Estuar. Coast. Shelf S., 73, 563–570. Berg, B., 2000. Litter decomposition and organic matter turnover in northern forest soils, Forest Ecol. Manag., 133, 13–22. Brady, M.A., 1997. 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