Literature Cited Aber, J., Nielson, R.P., Lenihan, J.M., Bachelet, D., Drapek, R.J. 2001. Forest processes and global environmental change: Predicting the effects of individual and multiple stressors. Bioscience 51: 735-751. This paper addresses the predicted impact of increased temperature and other stressors on the distribution, condition, species composition, and productivity of forests. Increases in temperature have lengthened the growing season in temperate systems and have increased growth responses in boreal forests. Climate change is expected to boost overall forest productivity by more than 20% in the U.S. Abstract: We review the effects of several rapidly changing environmental drivers on ecosystem function, discuss interactions among them, and summarize predicted changes in productivity, carbon storage, and water balance. Adams, H.D, Kolb, T.E. 2004. Drought responses of conifers in ecotone forests of northern Arizona: tree ring growth and leaf δ13C. Oecologia 140: 217-225. This study analyses growth response in conifers in response to drought. The researchers used two approaches that provide different information about drought response: the ratio of standardized radial growth in wet years to dry years (W:D) for the period between years 1950 and 2000 as a measure of growth response to drought, and 13C in leaves formed in non-drought (2001) and drought (2002) years as a measure of change in water use efficiency (WUE) in response to drought. Low elevation populations of P. ponderosa had greater growth response to drought than high-elevation populations. Increases in WUE in response to drought were similar for all species at the ponderosa pine/mixed conifer ecotone. Adams AS, Six DL .2006. Temporal variation in mycophagy and prevalence of fungi associated with developmental stages of the mountain pine beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae (Coleoptera: Scolytinae, Curculionidae). Environmental Entomology 36: 64-72 This paper discusses the potential temporal shift in the relationship between D. ponderosae and its fungal symbionts driven by climate change. G. clavigera, a fungal symbiont of D. ponderosae, was most likely to be found in phloem adjacent to prewintering third- and postwintering fourth-instar larvae. O. montium was most likely to be found in phloem adjacent to eggs, first-instar larvae, pupae, and teneral adults. Results suggest that not only are D. ponderosae broods in contact with and feeding on fungi throughout development, but also, that during development, contact of brood with a particular fungus is likely to change. Such temporal shifts in fungal symbionts may be environmentally driven and have important implications in how fungi interact with their hosts within and across generations. Alfaro, R.I.; Campbell, R.; Vera, P.; Hawkes, B.; Shore, T. 2004. Dendroecological reconstruction of mountain pine beetle outbreaks in the Chilcotin Plateau of British Columbia. Pages 245-256 in T.L. Shore, J.E. Brooks and J.E. Stone, eds. Challenges and Solutions: Proceedings of the Mountain Pine Beetle Symposium. Kelowna, British Columbia. October 30-31, 2003. Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Pacific Forestry Centre, Victoria, British Columbia, Information Report BC-X-399. 298 p. This study reconstructed recurrence rates for mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopk.) (Colyoptera: Scolytidae) outbreaks in British Columbia and discusses conditions including climate that may impact stand susceptibility. The mountain pine beetle periodically increases to outbreak levels, killing thousands of trees. It is considered one of the major natural disturbance agents in North America. Beetle outbreaks do not normally kill all the trees in a stand, and the surviving trees experience extended periods of increased growth. Mountain pine beetle generally attack stands that are more than 80 years old and contain many large-diameter trees. Allen, C.D. 2007. Cross-scale interactions among forest dieback, fire, and erosion in northern New Mexico landscapes. Ecosystems 10:797-808. This paper discusses the impact of predicted warmer temperatures and extreme droughts on the interactions between vegetation dieback, grazing, and fire and its impact on land surface properties, cross-scale hydrologic connectivities, and alteration of ecohydrological patterns of runoff and erosion. The interaction among disturbance processes exhibits a nonlinear relationship across spatial scales. This can result in forest dieback among dominant species, an increased risk of bark beetle outbreaks, and enhanced propagation of wildfires. Abstract: Ecosystem patterns and disturbance processes at one spatial scale often interact with processes at another scale, and the result of such cross-scale interactions can be nonlinear dynamics with thresholds. Examples of cross-scale pattern-process relationships and interactions among forest dieback, fire, and erosion are illustrated from northern New Mexico (USA) landscapes, where longterm studies have recently documented all of these disturbance processes. For example, environmental stress, operating on individual trees, can cause tree death that is amplified by insect mortality agents to propagate to patch and then landscape or even regional-scale forest dieback. Severe drought and unusual warmth in the southwestern USA since the late 1990s apparently exceeded species-specific physiological thresholds for multiple tree species, resulting in substantial vegetation mortality across millions of hectares of woodlands and forests in recent years. Predictions of forest dieback across spatial scales are constrained by uncertainties associated with: limited knowledge of speciesspecific physiological thresholds; individual and site specific variation in these mortality thresholds; and positive feedback loops between rapidly-responding insect herbivore populations and their stressed plant hosts, sometimes resulting in nonlinear ‘‘pest‘‘ outbreak dynamics. Fire behavior also exhibits nonlinearities across spatial scales, illustrated by changes in historic fire regimes where patchscale grazing disturbance led to regional scale collapse of surface fire activity and subsequent recent increases in the scale of extreme fire events in New Mexico. Vegetation dieback interacts with fire activity by modifying fuel amounts and configurations at multiple spatial scales. Runoff and erosion processes are also subject to scale-dependent threshold behaviors, exemplified by ecohydrological work in semiarid New Mexico watersheds showing how declines in ground surface cover lead to non-linear increases in bare patch connectivity and thereby accelerated runoff and erosion at hillslope and watershed scales. Vegetation dieback, grazing, and fire can change land surface properties and cross-scale hydrologic connectivities, directly altering ecohydrological patterns of runoff and erosion. The interactions among disturbance processes across spatial scales can be key drivers in ecosystem dynamics, as illustrated by these studies of recent landscape changes in northern New Mexico. To better anticipate and mitigate accelerating human impacts to the planetary ecosystem at all spatial scales, improvements are needed in our conceptual and quantitative understanding of cross-scale interactions among disturbance processes. Allen, C.D., Breshears, D.D. 1998. Drought-induced shift of a forestwoodland ecotone: rapid landscape response to climate variation. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 95: 14839-14842. This study documented the combined impact of severe drought, mortality from bark beetles and land use policies on a rapid and substantial ecotone shift. At the Bandelier Wilderness study site, drought induced mortality in ponderosa pine was exacerbated by bark beetle infestations. This resulted in a shift in the ponderosa pine forest and pinion-juniper woodland ecotone of greater than 2 km in less than 5 years. Current models do not reflect the rapid pace of vegetation shifts expected as a result of climate change. Abstract: In coming decades, global climate changes are expected to produce large shifts in vegetation distribution at unprecedented rates. These shifts are expected to be most rapid and extreme at ecotones, the boundaries between ecosystems, particularly those in semiarid landscapes. However, current models do not adequately provide for such rapid effects – particularly those caused by mortality – largely because of the lack of data from field studies. Here we report the most rapid landscape-scale shift of a woody ecotone ever documented: in northern New Mexico in the 1950s, the ecotone between semiarid ponderosa pine forest and pinion-juniper woodland shifted extensively (2 km or more) and rapidly (<5 years) through mortality of ponderosa pines in response to severe drought. This shift has persisted for 40 years. Forest patches within the shift zone became much more fragmented, and soil erosion greatly accelerated. The rapidity and the complex dynamics of the persistent shift point to the need to represent more accurately these dynamics, especially the mortality factor, in assessments of the effects of climate change. Allen, J.L., Wesser, S., Markon, C.J., Winterberger, K.C. 2006. Stand and landscape level effects of a major outbreak of spruce beetles on forest vegetation in the Copper River Basin, Alaska. Forest Ecology and Management 227: 257–266. This study examined the stand and landscape level effects of a spruce beetle outbreak on forest vegetation structure and composition in the Copper River Basin, Alaska. Spruce beetles selectively attack medium to large white spruce trees. High levels of infestation can severely alter stand dynamics leading to a homogenization of tree age and species, or a change in community composition. Abstract: From 1989 to 2003, a widespread outbreak of spruce beetles (Dendroctonus rufipennis) in the Copper River Basin, Alaska, infested over 275,000 ha of forests in the region. During 1997 and 1998, we measured forest vegetation structure and composition on one hundred and thirty-six 20-m x 20-m plots to assess both the immediate stand and landscape level effects of the spruce beetle infestation. A photo-interpreted vegetation and infestation map was produced using color-infrared aerial photography at a scale of 1:40,000.We used linear regression to quantify the effects of the outbreak on forest structure and composition. White spruce (Picea glauca) canopy cover and basal area of medium-to-large trees ≥15 cm diameter-at-breast height (1.3 m, dbh)] were reduced linearly as the number of trees attacked by spruce beetles increased. Black spruce (Picea mariana) and small diameter white spruce (<15 cm dbh) were infrequently attacked and killed by spruce beetles. This selective attack of mature white spruce reduced structural complexity of stands to earlier stages of succession and caused mixed tree species stands to lose their white spruce and become more homogeneous in overstory composition. Using the resulting regressions, we developed a transition matrix to describe changes in vegetation types under varying levels of spruce beetle infestations, and applied the model to the vegetation map. Prior to the outbreak, our study area was composed primarily of stands of mixed white and black spruce (29% of area) and pure white spruce (25%). However, the selective attack on white spruce caused many of these stands to transition to black spruce dominated stands (73% increase in area) or shrublands (26% increase in area). The post-infestation landscape was thereby composed of more even distributions of shrubland and white, black, and mixed spruce communities (17–22% of study area). Changes in the cover and composition of understory vegetation were less evident in this study. However, stands with the highest mortality due to spruce beetles had the lowest densities of white spruce seedlings suggesting a longer forest regeneration time without an increase in seedling germination, growth, or survival. Amman, G.D. 1977. The role of mountain pine beetle in lodgepole pine ecosystems: Impact on succession. Pgs. 3–18, In: Mattson, W.J. (ed.), Proceedings in the Life Sciences-Arthropods in Forest Ecosystems, Springer-Verlag, New York. This study documented the effects of mountain pine beetle infestation on three lodgepole pine forests at different successionary levels. The influence of mountain pine beetle on succession of lodgepole pine stands depends on the successional status at the time of outbreak with many stands persisting long enough for a number of beetle infestations to occur. Outbreaks which target large diameter trees occur at 20-40 year intervals often resulting in two- or three-story stands consisting of trees of different ages and sizes. Abstract: The mountain pine beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae (Coleoptera: Scolytidae), is the most aggressive member of its genus in the western United States. Populations of the beetle periodically build up and kill most of the large dominant lodge pole pines, Pinus contorta var. latifolia over vast acreages. The beetle is indigenous to North America and probably has been active in lodge pole pine ecosystems almost as long as lodge pole pine has existed. Frequency of infestations in a given area of forest appears to range from about 20 to 40 years, depending upon how rapidly some trees in the stand grow to large diameter and produce thick phloem, conditions conducive to buildup of beetle populations. In addition, trees must be at a latitude and elevation where temperatures are favorable for beetle development. Amman, G.D., McGregor, M.D., Cahill, D.B., Klein, W.H. 1977. Guidelines For reducing losses of lodgepole pine to the mountain pine beetle in unmanaged stands in the Rocky Mountains. GTR-INT-36. USDA Forest Service, Intermountain Research Station, Ogden, UT, 19 pp. This report describes the habits and habitat of the mountain pine beetle and presents methods for land managers to reduce bark beetle related losses in managed stands and for high value trees. The mountain pine beetle shows a strong preference for lodgepole pine of large diameter and 80 years of age or older. The cool climate of high elevations has an adverse effect on brood development and survival. These factors – tree diameter, tree age, and stand location -- are used to predict stand risk to beetle infestation. Abstract: These guidelines are based on ecological relationships of the beetle and its host. They are applicable to unmanaged stands. In the stands, beetles show a strong preference for lodgepole pine of large diameter and 80 years of age and older. Stands at low elevations suffer the greatest losses to beetle infestation. At low elevations, climate is optimal for brood survival; the cool climate of high elevations has an adverse effect on survival of the beetle. These factors—tree diameter, tree age, and stand location—are used to predict stand risk to beetle infestation. Measures can be taken to prevent or reduce losses to the beetle. Where timber production is the primary use of the land, large high risk trees can be removed by partial cutting techniques. However, patch cutting or clear cutting should be used where most trees are in large-diameter classes and in stands where residual trees would not be numerically adequate nor physically vigorous should partial cutting techniques be used. Essentially a “do nothing” policy recommended where recreation values predominate or where noncommercial forests exist. Trees of high value in campgrounds, picnic areas, and near summer and permanent homesites can be protected with chemical sprays that prevent successful beetle infestation. Asshoff, R., Zotz, G., Körner, C. 2006. Growth and phenology of mature temperate forest trees in elevated CO2. Global Change Biology 12: 848-861. This study chronicled the effects of CO2 enrichment in six species of deciduous trees during 4 years of Free Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) experiments. The observations do not support the notion that mature forest trees will accrete wood biomass at faster rates in a CO2-enriched atmosphere but may indicate some mitigation of drought effects. Even if mature trees accreted more biomass carbon in trunks in response to elevated CO2, such stimulation would simply accelerate the trees’ life cycle and not necessarily enhance long-term C pools. Ayres, M.P., Lombardero. M.J. 2000. Assessing the consequences of global change for forest disturbance from herbivores and pathogens. Science of the total environment 262: 363-286. This paper discusses the current impacts of herbivores and pathogens on forest community and stand structure as well as the potential range shifts and changes in community composition as a result of climate change. Increases in summer temperatures can result in elevational and latitudinal range shifts while increases in winter temperatures will increase brood survival. These factors can lead to bark beetle outbreaks that alter the species composition and structure of the forest affecting evapotranspiration, CO2 flux, and heat transfer. Baker, W.L., Veblen, T.T. 1990. Spruce Beetles and Fires in the NineteenthCentury Subalpine Forests of Western Colorado, U.S.A. Arctic and Alpine Research, 22(1): 65-80. This study used historic photographs to reconstruct patterns of spruce beetle caused mortality and fires and their impact on forest succession and species composition. Bark beetle disturbances can dictate forest distribution, abundance, age and size of trees in a similar manner to fire. Often where a fire destroys young understory trees, bark beetle outbreaks preferentially cause mortality in older trees and allow for the sudden growth of understory trees when canopy space becomes available. Balanyá, J., Oller, J.M., Huey, R.B., Gilchrist, G.W., Serra, L. 2006. Global Genetic Change Tracks Global Climate Warming in Drosophila subobscura. Science 313: 1773 – 1775. This paper studied the genetic impact of global warming on the fly Drosophila subobscura. The frequency of chromosome inversions associated with warm latitudes have increased with increasing temperature on all three continents where the fly is found. This rapid genetic shift is detectable even in samples separated by fewer than two decades and has been recently observed in other insects as well, although on more limited geographic scales. Bale, J.S., Masters, G.J., Hodkinson, I.D., Awmack, C., Bezemer, T.M.,. Brown, V.K., Butterfield, J., Buse, A., Coulson, J.C., Farrar, J., Good, J.E.G., Harrington, R., Hartley, S., Jones, T.H., Lindroth, R.L., Press, M.C., Symrnioudis, I., Watt, A.D., Whittaker, J.B. 2002. Herbivory in global climate change research: direct effects of rising temperature on insect herbivores. Global Change Biology 8 (1): 1–16. This paper discusses the insect/plant life-history strategies and the potential impacts warming temperatures on development rates, voltinism, and host availability. The diversity of insect species tends to decrease with increasing latitude and altitude. Climatic warming will allow temperate insect species to extend their ranges to higher latitudes and altitudes. Many montane and coldadapted species with restricted climatic ranges are likely to be more vulnerable to extinction. Bale J.S., Walters, K.F.A. 2001. Overwintering biology as a guide to the establishment potential of non-native arthropods in the UK. Animal Developmental Ecology. BIOS Sci. Ltd, Oxford, UK. This study focuses on the relationship between temperature and insect developmental thresholds, voltinism, and survival. The low temperature mortality of insects is a function of both the temperature and the duration of exposure. Overwinter survival is determined by the severity of the cold stress experienced in winter and the cold tolerance of individual insects. Two survival strategies that are employed by overwintering insects are freeze tolerance and freeze avoidance. Barber, V.A., Juday, G.P. Finney, B.P. 2000. Reduced growth of Alaskan white spruce in the twentieth century from temperature-induced drought stress. Nature 405: 668-673. This study examined tree-ring records from the past 90 years which strongly indicate that radial growth has decreased with increasing temperature. Temperature-induced drought stress has disproportionately affected the most rapidly growing white spruce, suggesting that, under recent climate warming, drought may have been an important factor limiting carbon uptake in North American boreal forests. An increase in the length of the growing season along with warmer summer temperatures could deplete already limited soil moisture. Battisti, A., Stastny, M., Buffo, E., Larsson, S. 2006. A rapid altitudinal range expansion in the pine processionary moth produced by the 2003 climatic anomaly. Global Change Biology 12: 662–671. This paper studied the effects of recent climate change on flight periodicity and distance in the winter pine processionary moth (Thaumetopoea pityocampa). The pine processionary moth is an important pine defoliator whose larvae feed in colonies during the winter, and is limited in its distribution by winter temperatures. In the last three decades, warmer winters have led to a gradual but substantial expansion of its range both latitudinally and altitudinally. The summer of 2003 has facilitated unprecedented colonization outside the range limit due to the highest summer temperatures in Europe over the past 500 years. Bazzaz, F.A., Chiariello, N.R., Coley, P.D.. Pitelka, L.F. 1987 Allocating Resources to Reproduction and Defense. In How Plants Cope: Plant Physiological Ecology. BioScience 37 (1): 58-67. This study examined the variation in resource allocation which occurs through differences in the chemical composition of structures, the relative mass of different structures or organs, and the relative number of different structures a plant produces. This variation occurs within individuals through time, within and among populations, and especially among species. Examinations of this variation cross many fields of ecology, including physiological studies of the relationship between structure and function in plants, biochemical studies of coevolutionary diversification in plant defense, and theoretical studies of life history evolution. Bentz, B.J., Mullins, D.E. 1999. Ecology of mountain pine beetle (Colyoptera: Scolytidae) cold hardening in the Intermountain West. Environmental Entomology 28:577–587. This study assessed supercooling points of field collected mountain pine beetle larvae, the physiological mechanisms that allow cold tolerance in mountain pine beetle larval stages, and characterized the pattern of low temperature tolerance among geographic regions. Differences in cold hardening are impacted by minimum phloem temperatures which were not significantly different between north and south aspects. There was 100% mortality in larvae exposed to temperatures at or below the super cooling point indicating that mountain pine beetle larvae are freeze intolerant. Abstract: The mountain pine beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins, spends the majority of its life cycle within the phloem of pine trees, experiencing exposure to temperatures below −30°C in many parts of their expansive range. To better understand cold tolerance capabilities of this insect, seasonal patterns of cold-hardiness, as measured by supercooling points in the laboratory, were compared with seasonal patterns of host tree phloem temperatures at several geographic sites for 2 beetle generations. Larvae were found to be intolerant of tissue freezing, and supercooling points measured appear to be a reasonable estimate of the lower limit for survival. Of the compounds analyzed, glycerol was found to be the major crynoprotectant. No differences in supercooling points were found among instars or between larvae collected from the north and south aspect of tree boles. Both phloem temperatures and supercooling points of larvae collected from within the phloem were found to be different among the geographic sites sampled. Mountain pine beetle larvae appear to respond to seasonal and yearly fluctuations in microhabitat temperatures by adjusting levels of cold hardening. Bentz, B.J., Amman, G.D., Logan, J.A. 1993. A critical assessment of risk classification systems for the mountain pine beetle. Forest Ecology and Management 61(3-4): 349-366. This study evaluated several mountain pine beetle hazard/risk systems for their ability to predict mountain pine beetle caused mortality in forests in northern Montana. Sustained outbreaks are dependent on factors related to stand composition such as density, size distribution, phloem thickness and age of individual trees. Accounting for temperature, which impacts bark beetle development, and the effects of weather patterns may enhance the predictability of mountain pine beetle population trends. Abstract: Hazard/risk systems developed for mountain pine beetle management traditionally have attempted to describe the potential for timber loss in pine stands due to outbreak phase populations. A variety of stand and site characteristics, as well as climatic conditions, have been used. In this study, four hazard/risk systems were evaluated using data from 105 stands in northern Montana. None of the systems evaluated were found to predict adequately mountain pine beetle induced mortality which occurred in the test stands. Possible reasons for the lack of predictive ability of these systems include: (1) confusion in terminology used in hazard/risk rating for mountain pine beetle; (2) lack of consideration of the mountain pine beetle population phase (e.g. endemic or epidemic) during rating system development; (3) the need to include more information concerning mountain pine beetle population dynamics; (4) the need for inclusion of the spatial nature of both beetle populations and stand conditions. Bentz, B.J., Logan, J.A., Amman, G.D. 1991. Temperature-dependent development of the mountain pine beetle (Coleoptera: Scolytidae) and simulation of its phenology. The Canadian Entomologist 123: 1083–1094. This study used constant temperature rearing experiments at all developmental stages to develop a temperature dependent phenology model that simulates mountain pine beetle development. Temporally synchronized eclosion encourages en masse attack, thus enabling beetles to overcome the defenses of larger diameter host trees which provide more food for the developing brood possibly leading to an epidemic population. Synchrony in development is accomplished when temperatures become too cool for later instars to develop allowing eggs and first- and second-instar larvae to coninue development at lower thresholds. Abstract: Temperature-dependent development of the egg, larval, and pupal lifestages of the mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins) was described using data from constant-temperature laboratory experiments. A phenology model describing the effect of temperature on the temporal distribution of the life-stages was developed using these data. Phloem temperatures were recorded in a beetle infested lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Douglas) were used as input to run the model. Results from model simulations suggest that inherent temperature thresholds in each life-stage help to synchronize population dynamics with seasonal climatic changes. This basic phonological information and the developed model will facilitate both research and management endeavors aimed at reducing losses in lodgepole pine stands caused by mountain pine beetle infestations. Bentz, B.J., Logan, J.A., VandyGriff, J.C. 2001. Latitudinal variation in Dendroctonus ponderosae (Coleoptera: Scolytidae) development time and adult size. Canadian Entomologist 133 (3): 375-387. This was a laboratory study of two populations of D. ponderosae one from Idaho and one from Utah to determine if heritable differences exist in development time or in adult size when reared under identical conditions. Local selection pressures and latitudinal region are primary determinants of D. ponderosae adult size and development time. Brood host was not found to be significant in explaining observed differences in adult size. Development time and adult size are heritable traits and genotypes may be adapting to local thermal regimes along a latitudinal gradient. Abstract: Dendroctonus ponderosae (Hopkins) is widely distributed across western North America, feeding in at least 12 native species of Pinus L. (Pinaceae). We investigated the existence of heritable differences in two lifehistory parameters (adult size and development time) of D. ponderosae from a northern population (central Idaho, Pinus contorta Douglas ex Loudon) and a southern population (southern Utah, Pinus ponderosa Douglas ex P. and C. Lawson). We attempted to separate heritable from environmental effects by rearing individuals from both populations through two generations (F1 and F2) in a common standardized laboratory environment with a constant temperature. Two treatment effects were tested for in the F2 generation: (1) geographic location (source host) for F0 D. ponderosae; and (2) the F2 brood host. We hypothesized that. If differences were observed and the F0 source host and region had a greater effect on F2 brood development time and adult size than did the host in which F2 brood were reared, a heritable factor related to the F0 parents was responsible. Time to emergence was significantly shorter for second-generation offspring in the northern population than for second-generation offspring in the southern population, regardless of the F2 brood host. Although both the F2 brood host and F0 source parents were significant in explaining differences observed in the development-time distribution of F2 brood, the F0 source effect was found to be much greater. Also F2 males and females from southern source parents were significantly larger than F2 brood from northern source parents when reared in both F2 brood hosts. Geographic region and original host of F0 source parents had a significant effect on F2 offspring size, whereas the immediate food for F2 brood was not significant in explaining differences. These results suggest genetically based regional differences in D. ponderosae populations. Bentz, B.J. and D.L. Six. 2006. Ergosterol content of fungi associated with Dendroctonus ponderosae and D. rufipennis (Coleoptera: Curculionidae, Scolytinae). Annals of the Entomological Society of America 99(2):189-194. This paper studied the impact of the fungi L. abietum, O. montium and O. clavigerum on the brood success of two bark beetles D. ponderosae and D. rufipennis. Fungal feeding may provide vital nutrients either non-existent or found in inadequate levels in woody plant tissues and may also provide an alternate source of sterols typically found in low concentrations or in forms unusable by insects. Leptographium abietum is found on the pronota and elytra of D. rufipennis and both Ophiostoma montium and Ophiostoma clavigerum are found on the maxillae in sac mycangia of D. ponderosae. Abstract: Insects require sterols for normal growth, metamorphosis, and reproduction, yet they are unable to synthesize these organic compounds and are therefore dependent upon a dietary source. For phloephagous species, such as Dendroctonus bark beetles, whose food does not necessarily contain appropriate types or adequate quantities of sterols, fungal symbionts may provide an alternative source in the form of ergosterol. We determined and compared the relative amounts of ergosterol in the primary fungal associates of Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins and Dendroctonus rufipennis Kirby. Ergosterol content of host tree phloem naturally infested with larvae (and their fungal symbionts) of both species also was compared with ergosterol contents in uninfested phloem tissue. Mycelia of Ophiostoma montium (Rumfold) von Arx and Ophiostoma clavigerum (Robinson-Jeffrey & Davidson) Harrington isolated from D. ponderosae mycangia, and Leptographium abietinum (Peck) Wingfield isolated from the exoskeleton of D. ruifpennis contained relatively large quantities of ergosterol, although no significant differences in content were found among these fungal species. Phloem colonized by larvae of both species contained significantly more ergosterol than did uninfested host phloem tissue. Our results suggest that larval life stages of D. ponderosae and D. rufipennis may obtain vital nutrients not only from the host tree phloem but also from fungal symbionts, in the form of ergosterol, while mining larval galleries. Bentz, B.J., M. Pfrender, R. Bracewell, and K. Mock. 2007. Genetic architecture of differences in fitness traits among geographically separated Dendroctonus ponderosae populations. In Bentz, Cognato, Raffa (eds), Proceedings from the Third Workshop on Genetics of Bark Beetles and Associated Microorganisms. USDA For. Serv. Proceedings RMRS-P-45. This study examined additive and nonadditive genetic traits in three geographically separated populations of Dendroctonus panderosae reared under laboratory conditions. Mean development time for all populations was slower and adults were larger at cold rearing temperatures when compared to warm temperatures. Results suggest that selection plays a role in MPB adaptation to temperature and to local environments that could lead to geographically specific voltinism patterns under a global warming scenario. Abstract: The mountain pine beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins (Coleoptera: Curculionidae, Scolytinae) (MPB), is widely distributed across western North America spanning 25 degrees latitude and more than 2,500 m elevation. In a common garden experiment, Bentz and others (2001) observed that MPB populations from a southern location required significantly more time to develop than individuals from a population in the northern part of the range, although both populations exhibited univoltinism. Adults from the southern population were also significantly larger, even when reared in a common host and temperature. These results suggest that local selection plays a role in MPB adaptation to temperature, which can vary dramatically across the broad range of MPB. In a recent phylogeographic analyses of MPB, Mock and others (2007) found evidence of genetic structuring among populations that followed a broad isolation-by-distance pattern, confirming that genetic differences exist among geographically isolated populations. Little is known, however, about the underlying genetic architecture of important MPB life history traits, such as development time. To adequately forecast the effects of climate change on MPB population success and adaptability, a better understanding of the underlying environmental and genetic control of these traits, and variability across geographically separated populations, is needed. The main objective of our study was to examine the genetic architecture of differences among three geographically separated populations of MPB that differ in total development time and adult size. We used line cross experiments to analyze the relative influences of additive and nonadditive genetic effects on population differences in these traits. Berg, E.E., Henry, J.D., Fastie, C.L., De Volder, A.D., Matsuoka. S.M. 2006. Spruce beetle outbreaks on the Kenai Peninsula, Alaska, and Kluane National Park and reserve, Yukon Territory: Relationship to summer temperatures and regional differences in disturbance regimes. Forest Ecology and Management 227: 219-232. This study used core samples and historical records to reconstruct drought related spruce beetle outbreaks and subsequent growth release in surviving trees. On the Southern Kenai Peninsula, the sustained onset of warm summers beginning in 1987 was followed by substantial increase in red needle mortality in spruce beginning in 1990 and climaxing in 1996. In the Kluane region, higher than average temperatures beginning in 1989 were associated with the outbreak that continued through 2005. Increases in the rate of spruce beetle reproduction and trees stressed by 5–6 years of drought likely resulted in spruce beetle outbreaks. Abstract: When spruce beetles (Dendroctonus rufipennis) thin a forest canopy, surviving trees grow more rapidly for decades until the canopy closes and growth is suppressed through competition. We used measurements of tree rings to detect such growth releases and reconstruct the history of spruce beetle outbreaks at 23 mature spruce (Picea spp.) forests on and near the Kenai Peninsula, Alaska and four mature white spruce (Picea glauca) forests in Kluane National Park and Reserve, Yukon Territory. On the Kenai Peninsula, all stands showed evidence of 1–5 thinning events with thinning occurring across several stands during the 1810s, 1850s, 1870–1880s, 1910s, and 1970–1980s, which we interpreted as regional spruce beetle outbreaks. However, in the Kluane region we only found evidence of substantial thinning in one stand from 1934 to 1942 and thinning was only detected across stands during this same time period. Over the last 250 years, spruce beetle outbreaks therefore occurred commonly among spruce forests on the Kenai Peninsula, at a mean return interval of 52 years, and rarely among spruce forests in the Kluane region where cold winter temperatures and fire appear to more strongly regulate spruce beetle population size. The massive 1990s outbreaks witnessed in both regions appeared to be related to extremely high summer temperatures. Recent outbreaks on the Kenai Peninsula (1971–1996) were positively associated with the 5-year backwards running average of summer temperature. We suggest that warm temperature influences spruce beetle population size through a combination of increased overwinter survival, a doubling of the maturation rate from 2 years to 1 year, and regional drought-induced stress of mature host trees. However, this relationship decoupled after 1996, presumably because spruce beetles had killed most of the susceptible mature spruce in the region. Thus sufficient numbers of mature spruce are needed in order for warm summer temperatures to trigger outbreaks on a regional scale. Following the sequential and large outbreaks of the 1850s, 1870–1880s, and 1910s, spruce beetle outbreaks did not occur widely again until the 1970s. This suggests that it may take decades before spruce forests on the Kenai Peninsula mature following the 1990s outbreak and again become susceptible to another large spruce beetle outbreak. However, if the recent warming trend continues, endemic levels of spruce beetles will likely be high enough to perennially thin the forests as soon as the trees reach susceptible size. Berryman, A.A. and R.W. Stark. 1962. Studies on the effects of temperature on the development of Ips confusus using radiographic techniques. Ecology 43(4):722-726. This study employed low kilovoltage X-rays to determine gallery construction, egg laying and brood success at five different temperatures. The increase in the activity of the parent adults was reflected in the developmental rates of the resultant brood. The greatest numbers of Ips confusus progeny were produced at 20ºC with brood survival highest at 20ºC and 25ºC and the maximum rate of brood development occurring between 30ºC to 35ºC. Bigler, C., Kolakowski, D., Veblen.T.T. 2005. Multiple disturbance interactions and drought influence fire severity in the Rocky Mountain subalpine forests. Ecology 86: 3018-3029. This paper discusses the relationship between drought, bark beetles, and weather conditions and their impact on fire severity. Past disturbance by fire or beetle outbreak strongly determines forest cover type and stand structure. Following the decay of the fine fuels, overall fire hazard may actually decrease for decades due to the increased moisture related to the development of mesic understory vegetation in subalpine forests and lack of continuous fine fuel in the canopy. Biondi, F. Peter C. Hartsough, P.C., Estrada, I.G. 2005 Daily Weather and Tree Growth at the Tropical Treeline of North America. Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research 37: 16–24. This paper chronicled the environmental conditions during an outbreak of the roundheaded pine beetle (Dendroctonus adjunctus Blandford) Increasing temperatures in the spring initiated tree growth which continued as a result of summer precipitation. It was possible to measure the decline of Pinus hartwegii stem increment during the outbreak which ultimately killed most of the trees at one of two experimental sites. Bleiker K, Six DL. 2008. In press. Dietary benefits of fungal associates to an eruptive herbivore: Potential implications of multiple associates on host population dynamics. Environmental Entomology This study examined the effects of fungal associates on the development and success of mountain pine beetle broods which may supplement their diet allowing them to develop in a nutritionally poor habitat at high densities. The fungal associates of the mountain pine beetle may increase dietary nitrogen in the phloem available to mid-to-late instars for feeding and increased phloem nitrogen by 40% 8 weeks after attack. Total gallery area is greater for insects developing on G. clavigera colonized or uncolonized phloem compared with insects developing on treatment diets with O. montium present. Boisvenue, C., Running, S.W. 2006. Impacts of climate change on natural forest productivity–evidence since the middle of the 20th century. Global Change Biology 12: 862-882. This paper used satellite data as well as field data from carbon sequestration research and forest management planning to review documented evidence of the impacts of both long and short term climate change trends since the 1950s. The response of forests to CO2, temperature, radiation, and precipitation will be impacted by an increase in atmospheric O3. Productivity of temperate forests in northwestern North America is limited by temperature in winter and spring, and water in the summer. Borden, J.H. 1997. Disruption of semiochemical-mediated aggregation in bark beetles. Pgs. 421–438, In: Cardé, R.T., Minks A.K. (eds.), Insect Pheromone Research: New Directions, Chapman and Hall, New York. This paper studied the application methods used in dispersing multifunctional and anti-aggregation pheromones and their effect on the bark beetle host selection process. Pheromones such as MCH or verbenone are used in conjunction with silvacultural practices such as pre-outbreak thinning and removal of infested trees to protect individual stands and high value trees from bark beetle attack. Aggregation pheromones are often deployed in traps outside the protected area in a push-pull tactic intended to trasp dispersing beetles. Botkin D.B., Saxe H., Araujo M.B., Betts R., Bradshaw R.H.W., Cedhagen T., Chesson P., Dawson T.P., Etterson J.R., Faith D.P., Ferrier S., Guisan A., Hansen A.S., Hilbert D.W., Loehle C., Margules C., New M., Sobel M.J., Stockwell D.R.B. Forecasting the effects of global warming on biodiversity. Bioscience 57(3): 227-236. This paper provides a framework for improving biodiversity forecasting by reexamining the parameters used by several models and integrating them into a cohesive evaluation that includes species persistence and multiple causes of biodiversity change. Species with the greatest genetic diversity are more likely to undergo rapid evolution. There has already been a rapid genetic adaptation seen in some wild organisms in long term field studies. This is also true in many recently introduced invasive species. Box, E.O. 1981. Predicting physiognomic vegetation types with climate variables. Vegetation 45(2): 127-139. This study details a new vegetation model which uses expanded classification of vegetative life forms along with eight macroclimatic variables to predict future vegetation formations. Climatic water balance and mean seasonal temperature patterns are the primary determinants of plant form and vegetation structure. Bradshaw, W.E. and C.M. Holzapfel. 2007. Evolutionary response to rapid climate change. Science 312:1477-1478. This paper discusses the evolutionary responses of several animals and insects to longer and warmer growing seasons resulting from climate change. In recent decades, heritable genetic changes attributed to climate change have occurred in many animal populations including adaptation to the timing of seasonal events or to season length. The rate of change varied by animal type ranging from mosquitoes which showed clear change within five years to great tits in which only a portion of the population has shown change after thirty years. Breshears, D.D., Cobb, N.S., Rich, P.M., Price, K.P., Allen, C.D., Balice, R.G., Romme, W.H., Kastens, J.H., Floyd, M.L., Belnap, J., Anderson, J.J, Myers, O.B., Meyer, C.W. 2005. Regional vegetation die-off in response to globalchange-type drought. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 102: 15144-15148. This study used the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, aerial surveys, and field inventories to evaluate the impact of a global climate change type drought on regional scale pinon pine mortality. The four state regional study area experienced drought combined with unusually high temperatures. A 17 year period of increased precipitation preceding the recent drought allowed for rapid tree growth. This resulted in increased stand densities, competition for water and susceptibility to beetle attacks and pathogens. Tree mortality during this period was greater than a previously recorded drought in the 1950s. Brown, J.K. 1975. Fire cycles and community dynamics in lodgepole pine forests. Pp. 430-456. In: Baumgarner, D.M. (ed), Proceedings, Symposium: Management of Lodgepole Pine Ecosystems. Washington State Cooperative Extension, Pullman, WA. This study focuses on the relationship between stand structure, fire, and succession in lodgepole pine forests. The type of fire impacts stand characteristics such as density and rate of succession. The mountain pine beetle has coevolved with lodgepole pine and its preference for colonizing larger trees works against succession to climax stage in lodgepole pine forests. Abstract: The influences of fire on succession, community diversity and stability, expression of serotiny, stand establishment, development of stand structure, and fuel accumulation are discussed for lodgepole pine forests. Fire, fuel accumulation, and stand development interact in a complex biological network. Mortality factors such as mountain pine beetle, suppression mortality, and fire cause fuels to build up on the ground, creating varied fire intensity potentials. Fires initiate a chain of biological events that affects the development of lodgepole pine stands; in turn, the characteristics of stands affect their susceptibility to mortality, fuel accumulation, and fire potential. Callaway, R.M., DeLucia, E.H. 1994. Biomass allocation of montane and desert ponderosa pine: An analog for response to climate change. Ecology 75: 1474-1481. This study used cross sections taken at 1m intervals to determine if the biomass allocation differed between montane and desert populations of P. ponderosae. Large diameter desert P. ponderosa have larger sapwood volume: leaf area ratios than montane P. ponderosa indicating a phenotypic acclimation or a genotypic change has occurred in the desert populations. High biomass allocation to sapwood may have many benefits including increased water and carbohydrate storage capacities. Cardoza, Y.J., Paskewitz, S. Raffa, K.F. 2006. Travelling through time and space on wings of beetles: A tripartite insect-fungi-nematode association. Symbiosis 41(2): 71-79. This study examined the nematangia in both mountain pine and spruce beetles and discovered the presence of nematodes and 15 microbial morphotypes. Bark beetles have symbiotic relationships with many organisms including fungi, bacteria, mites, and nematodes. All spruce beetle wings examined in our study were covered with fungal spores and/or mycelia. Nematodes have variable associations with bark beetles and may control fungi growth in brood galleries. Carroll, A.L., Taylor S.W., Régnière J., Safranyik, L. 2004. Effects of Climate Change on Range Expansion by the Mountain Pine Beetle in British Columbia. Pages 223-232. in T.L. Shore, J.E. Brooks and J.E. Stone, eds. Proceedings of the mountain pine beetle symposium: challenges and solutions, October 30-31, 2003, Kelowna, British Columbia, Canada. Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Pacific Forestry Centre, Victoria, BC. Information Report BC-X-399. 298 This paper studied the impact of recent warming on the range expansion of the mountain pine beetle in British Columbia followed by a decrease in overall bark beetle infestations by the mid-1980s. Over time climate change will allow mountain pine beetle to expand its range into formerly climatically hostile environments. This is evident in small beetle populations persisting in the northern Rockies where no beetle activity has been previously recorded. Carroll, A.L., J. Regniere, J.A. Logan, S.W. Taylor, B.J. Bentz and J.A. Powell. 2006. Impacts of climate change on range expansion by the mountain pine beetle. Natural Resources Canada, MPBI P.O. #1.02, working paper 2006-14. http://bookstore.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/searchpubs_e.php. This study addresses the increase in suitable habitat and range expansion of the mountain pine beetle over the past thirty years and projects an increase in the range of benign habitats under future climate change scenarios. Suitable habitat for mountain pine beetle in south-central and south-eastern British Columbia has increased 75% since 1970. Only climate change explains the increasing rate of mountain pine beetle infestations. The Safranyik-Logan model predicts a contiguous band of suitable Mountain pine beetle habitat across the boreal forest by 2040. Abstract: The current latitudinal and elevational range of mountain pine beetle (MPB) is not limited by available hosts. Instead, its potential to expand north and east has been restricted by climatic conditions unfavorable for brood development. We combined a model of the impact of climatic conditions on the establishment and persistence of MPB populations with a spatially explicit, climate-driven simulation tool. Historic weather records were used to produce maps of the distribution of past climatically suitable habitats for MPB in British Columbia. Overlays of annual MPB occurrence on these maps were used to determine if the beetle has expanded its range in recent years due to changing climate. An examination of the distribution of climatically suitable habitats in 10year increments derived from climate normals (1921-1950 to 1971-2000) clearly shows an increase in the range of benign habitats. Furthermore, an increase (at an increasing rate) in the number of infestations since 1970 in formerly climatically unsuitable habitats indicates that MPB populations have expanded into these new areas. The potential for additional range expansion by MPB under continued global warming was assessed from projections derived from the CGCM1 global circulation model and a conservative forcing scenario equivalent to a doubling of CO2 (relative to the 1980s) by approximately 2050. Predicted weather conditions were combined with the climatic suitability model to examine the distribution of benign habitats from 1981-2010 to 1941-2070 for all of Canada. The area of climatically suitable habitats is anticipated to continue to increase within the historic range of MPB. Moreover, much of the boreal forest will become climatically available to the beetle in the near future. Since jack pine is a viable host for MPB and a major component of the boreal forest, continued eastward expansion by MPB is probable. Chansler, J.F. 1966. Cold hardiness of two species of Ips beetles. Journal of Forestry 64: 622-624. This paper studied how survival in Ips leconti and Ips confusus is influenced by natural cold hardening, duration of low temperature, and diameter of infested trees. At low temperatures bark beetle mortality decreased as bolt diameter and bark thickness increased. Abstract: Cold hardiness studies of the overwintering adult stage of two, fivespined Ips were made during the winters of 1960-1961 and 1961-1962. Ips confuses infesting pinion pine in Arizona and New Mexico, can successfully withstand 5â—¦ to 10â—¦ F colder temperatures than Ips lecontei, a pest of ponderosa pine in central and southern Arizona. Little, if any, additional cold hardening was exhibited by either beetle between November and March. Both beetles tolerated colder temperatures the second year. Mortality varied with air temperature, length of exposure, bolt diameter, and bark thickness. Natural mortality in the infested forests verified the accuracy of the laboratory experiments. Chansler, J.F. 1967. Biology and life history of Dendroctonus adjunctus (Coleoptera: Scolytidae). Annals Entomological Society America This paper details the distribution, host selection, life cycle of the roundheaded pine beetle and factors affecting population density such as management, predators, temperature, and moisture. The overwintering stages are usually eggs and egg-laying adults with little development in overwintering eggs. 70% of the study brood was fourth-instar larvae by late May with 65% in this stage two months later. This slow rate of development indicates the possibility of diapause. Abstract: Dendroctonus adjunctus Blandford (D. convexifrons Hopkins), the roundheaded pine beetle, kills groups of pole sized ponderosa pine, Pinus ponderosa Laws, in New Mexico and Arizona. The range of this forest pest extends from southern Utah and Colorado southward through pine forest to Guatemala. Study of a serious outbreak in southern New Mexico showed the insect to have a 1-year life cycle. The attack period lasts 8-9 weeks, peaking in mid October. The insect overwinters in the egg and egg-laying adult stages. Development resumes in late March. The larval stage occurs between April and July, pupation in August. Certain physical and biotic factors appear to play an important part in the sudden rise and fall of outbreaks. Cibrián-Tovar, D., Méndez-Montiel, J.T., Campos-Bolaños, R., Yates III, H.O., Flores-Lara, J. 1995. Insectos forestales de México / Forest Insects of Mexico. Universidad Autónoma Chapingo y Comisión Forestal de América del Norte, FAO. Publicación/Publication No.6. This book focuses on phytophagus insects affecting forest and forest products and is organized as to species, host, distribution, description,life cycle, and management. D. adjunctus is a major pest in National Parks in central Mexico and in forests at altitudes above 2800m. Most attacks occur from September to November with egg laying occuring from August to January the following year. Clarke, L.E., Edmonds, J.A., Jacoby, H.D., Pitcher, H.M., Reilly, J.M., Richels, J.M. 2007. Scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions and atmospheric concentrations. Sub-report 2.1A of Synthesis and Assessment Product 2.1 by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research. Department of Energy, Office of Biological & Environmental Research, Washington, DC. This synthesis and assessment uses three models IGSM, MERGE, and MiniCAM to develop reference scenarios detailing possible outcomes, scenarios that stabilize radiative forcing, and suggests future directions for users and policymakers. In the reference scenarios, CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and industrial processes increase to over 3 times their current levels by 2100. Concentrations of atmospheric CO2 are expected to increase to 700 ppmv -900 ppmv from the current level of 365 ppmv during the same period. Abstract: This and a companion report constitute one of twenty-one Synthesis and Assessment Products called for in the Strategic Plan for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program. These studies are structured to provide high-level, integrated research results in important science issues with a particular focus on questions raised by decision-makers on dimensions of climate change directly relevant to the U.S. One element of the CCSP’s strategic vision is to provide decision support tools for differentiating and evaluating response strategies. Scenario-based analysis is one such tool. The scenarios in this report explore the implications of alternative stabilization levels of anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere, and they explicitly consider the economic and technological foundations of such response options. Such scenarios are a valuable complement to other scientific research contained in the twenty-one CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Products. The companion to the research reported here, Global-Change Scenarios: Their development and Use, explores the broader strategic frame for developing and utilizing scenarios in support of climate decision making. Cole, W.E. 1981. Some risks and causes of mortality in mountain pine beetle populations: a long-term analysis. Researches on Population Ecology 23:116-144. This paper discussed factors influencing mortality in mountain pine beetle such as host diameter, phloem thickness, population density, predators, pitch, and pathogens. The two main causes of mortality in mountain pine beetle broods are low winter temperatures and drying of the phloem in early summer. Impact from these factors decreased as tree diameter and phloem thickness increased. Abstract: The interpretation of the probabilities presented in this paper is that none of the competing biological risks, acting in the presence of other risks, offers much, if any, regulatory influence upon a mountain pine beetle population. Consequently, if no single risk, or combination of these risks, offers much help, then the contention that mountain pine beetle populations are food-regulated is once again strengthened (COLE and AMMAN, 1969). The evidence remains (or continues) that the mountain pine beetle is food-regulated at optimum temperature conditions and temperature-regulated at optimum food conditions. Reducing and/or minimizing tree loss to the mountain pine beetle is thus dependent upon manipulating the food supply or management of the tree (stand) growth. Coley, P.D. 1998. Possible Effects of Climate Change on Plant/Herbivore Interactions in Moist Tropical Forests. Climatic Change 39(2-3): 455-472. This paper discusses the effects of elevated CO2, drought, and temperature individually as well as the overall effects of climate change on plants, herbivores, and natural enemies. Shortened developmental times in herbivores due to increased temperature should decrease parasitoid susceptibility. Climate change may compromise the ability of natural enemies to control herbivore populations resulting in a change in relative species abundance. Cook, E.R., Seager, R., Cane, M.A., Stahle, D.W. 2007. North American drought: Reconstructions, causes and consequences. Earth-Science Reviews 81: 93-134. This study used tree ring records to reconstruct drought and mega-drought events over the past 1000 years and indicates that severe drought has been the most common natural disaster in North America during this time. Sea surface temperature (SST) of the tropical Pacific Ocean drive the patterns of drought, with warmer air temperatures paradoxically leading to cooler, La Nina like SST and thus drought in North America. The warming climate due to anthropogenic green house gases could then result in severe megadroughts as seen in the medieval period. Abstract: Severe drought is the greatest recurring natural disaster to strike North America. A remarkable network of centuries-long annual tree-ring chronologies has now allowed for the reconstruction of past drought over North America covering the past 1000 or more years in most regions. These reconstructions reveal the occurrence of past “megadroughts” of unprecedented severity and duration, ones that have never been experienced by modern societies in North America. There is strong archaeological evidence for the destabilizing influence of these past droughts on advanced agricultural societies, examples that should resonate today given the increasing vulnerability of modern water-based systems to relatively short-term droughts. Understanding how these megadroughts develop and persist is a timely scientific problem. Very recently, climate models have succeeded in simulating all of the major droughts over North America from the Civil War to the severe 1998–2004 drought in the western U.S. These numerical experiments indicate the dominating importance of tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in determining how much precipitation falls over large parts of North America. Of central importance to drought formation is the development of cool “La Niña-like” SSTs in the eastern tropical Pacific region. This development appears to be partially linked to changes in radiative forcing over that region, which affects the Bjerknes feedback mechanism of the ENSO cycle there. Paradoxically, warmer conditions over the tropical Pacific region lead to the development of cool La Niña-like SSTs there, which is drought inducing over North America. Whether or not this process will lead to a greater prevalence of drought in the future as the world warms due to accumulating greenhouse gases is unclear at this time. Coulson, R.N., Wunneburger, W.F. 2000. Impact of insects on humandominated and natural forest landscapes. Pgs. 271-291 In: Coleman, D.C., Hendrix P.F. (eds.), Invertebrates as Webmasters of Ecosystems, CAB International, Wallingford, UK. This paper discusses the role of insects on primary production, structure, and ecological succession in forest landscapes. Herbivory can make plants vulnerable to pathogens and natural disturbances and can limit reproduction and regeneration. Bark beetles often target high hazard stands that contain mature trees with high basal area and stagnant growth Dale, V.H., Joyce, L.A., McNulty, S., Neilson, R.P., Ayres, M.P., Flannigan, M.D., Hanson, P.J., Irland, L.C., Lugo, A.E., Peterson, C.J., Simberloff, D., Swanson, F.J., Stocks, B.J., Wotton, B.M. 2001. Climate change and forest disturbances. BioScience 51:723–734. This study examined the impact of several disturbance regimes on forest structure, composition, and function and the effect of climate change on the severity, frequency, and magnitude of those disturbances. Temperature increases due to climate change will modify developmental rates, dispersal, and distribution for many species. An increase in minimum winter temperatures may favor northern migration of the southern pine beetle. Disturbances from herbivores and pathogens are widespread in the forest community including elimination of nesting trees. Abstract: Studies of the effects of climate change on forests have focused on the ability of species to tolerate temperature and moisture changes and to disperse, but they have ignored the effects of disturbances caused by climate change (e.g., Ojima et al. 1991). Yet modeling studies indicate the importance of climate effects on disturbance regimes (He et al. 1999). Local, regional, and global changes in temperature and precipitation can influence the occurrence, timing, frequency, duration, extent, and intensity of disturbances (Baker 1995, Turner et al. 1998). Because trees can survive from decades to centuries and take years to become established, climate-change impacts are expressed in forests, in part, through alterations in disturbance regimes (Franklin et al. 1992, Dale et al. 2000). Danks, HV. 1987. Insect Dormancy: An Ecological Perspective. Biological Survey of Canada (Terrestrial Arthropods) Monograph series no. 1. Tyrell Press LTD. Gloucester, Ontario. 439p. This book focused on dormancy, adaptive seasonality, and diapause as a driver of synchrony for mating, resource availability, and avoidance of harsh environmental conditions. Temperature is the major determining factor in direct control of development along with photoperiod, food, population density, and climate. In many insects, higher temperature based developmental thresholds for late instars and pupae allow early instars to complete their development synchronizing the population at a specific life-stage. Davis, M.B. 1981. Quaternary history and the stability of forest communities. In West, D.C., Shugart, H.H., Botkin, D.B. (eds.). Forest Succession: Concepts and Application, p 134-153. D.C. New York, Springer-Verlag. 517 pp. This study used pollen morphology to determine the migration rates of several boreal and temperate deciduous forests during the Quaternary Period. Range expansion of trees averaged 300 m/yr during the Holocene. The speed of climate change far exceeded the speed at which forests could adjust. Davis, M.A., Grime, J.P., Thompson, K. 2000. Fluctuating resources in plant communities: a general theory of invisibility. Journal of Ecology 88: 528-534. This paper outlines a theory for establishment of invasive species into new environments based on fluctuating resource availability. Either a decline in the use of existing resources by resident vegetation or an increase in resource supply will result in resource availability. These resources are then available making communities susceptible to invading species. DiGuistini, S., Ralph, S.G., Lim, Y.W., Holt, R., Jones, S., Bohlmann, J., Breuil, C. 2007. Generation and annotation of lodgepole pine and oleoresin-induced expressed sequences from the blue-stain fungus Ophiostoma clavigerum, a Mountain Pine Beetle-associated pathogen. FEMS Microbiology Letters 267 (2): 151–158. This study is a genomic analysis of Ophiostoma clavigerum, a fungal associate of mountain pine beetle, which discolors sapwood in lodgepole pine. O.clavigerum was grown on three different mediums lodgepole pine sawdust, malt extract agar (MEA), and MEA supplemented with monoterpene and diterpene metabolites from lodgepole pine. Dukes, J.S., Mooney, H.A. 1999. Does global change increase the success of biological invaders? Trends in ecology and evolution 14: 135-139. This paper discusses the effects of climate change such as increased temperature and elevated levels of CO2 on invasive plant and animal species. Increased carbon dioxide levels will decrease transpiration in plants making more ground water available for invading species. Warmer temperatures may also result in decreased generation times and increased winter survival of insects. It is predicted that insect species will expand their range northerly and upward in elevation. Dunn, J.P., Lorio, Jr., P.L. 1993. Modified water regimes affect photosynthesis, xylem water potential, cambial growth, and resistance of juvenile Pinus taeda L. to Dendroctonus frontalis (Coleoptera: Scolytidae). Environmental Entomology 22: 948-957. This study tested the growth differentiation balance concept usng irrigated and non-irrigated loblolly pine in both early and late summer experiments to determine the impact of drought on oleoresin production. Trees experiencing moderate water deficits may show an increase in carbon partitioning to resin synthesis relative to plant growth increasing plant defenses. Conversely, an abundant supply of water can reduce plant defenses as available carbon is used for growth. Southern pine beetles adjust population densities and attack rates to overwhelm increasing tree resistance. Abstract: We modified soil water supply to two groups of juvenile loblolly pines, Pinus taeda L., by sheltering or irrigating root systems in early summer or in late summer and measured oleoresin flow (primary defense), net photosynthesis, xylem water potential, and cambial growth throughout the growing season. When consistent significant differences in oleoresin flow and water potentials were detected between treatments, we induced attack by the southern pine beetle, Dendroctonus frontalis Zimmermann. Compared with irrigated trees, sheltered trees had lower xylem water potentials, reduced cambial growth, reduced photosynthesis, and reduced resin flow. In terms of response to beetle attack, sheltered trees had fewer attacks and less total gallery constructed, but those beetles that did attack sheltered trees were more successful (50-100% more eggs per attacking pair). However, the success of attacking beetles was generally very low, even in sheltered trees (only three to eight eggs per attacking pair). This performance, along with water deficits that strongly affected tree physiology, growth, and development, indicates that juvenile loblolly pine can make internal adjustments that limit the success of southern pine beetle attack. Dyer, E.D.A. 1969. Influence of temperature inversion on development of spruce beetle, Dendroctonus obsesus (Mannerheim) (Coleoptera: Scolytidae). Journal of the Entomological Society of British Columbia 66: 41-45. This study chronicled the development rate and voltinism of two broods of Dendroctonus obesus at sites with similar day temperatures but different night temperatures. Night temperatures at one site repeatedly dropped 5 to 7 degrees below freezing in late August, resulting in an immature brood which then overwintered on a semivoltine life cycle. The combination of semivoltine and univoltine populations that occur in warm temperatures can result in outbreak populations. Abstract: In the East Kootenay region of British Columbia, spruce logs infested by Dendroctonus obesus (Mannerheim) were placed beside thermographs at three sites. Throughout the summer, the mean and minimum air temperatures were higher on a mountain slope than in two valley bottoms at similar or lower elevations. Beetle development was faster on the mountain slope, where it continued until frost occurred in October, at which time 96% of the progeny were mature. In the lower valley bottom the minimum temperature fell 3.9 and 2.8 â—¦ C (7 and 5â—¦ F) below freezing on successive nights in August and larval development stopped. In the valley bottoms only 13 and 9% of the broods matured before winter. Temperature conditions that allow most broods of D. obesus to mature in one season may result in a critical addition to the normal number of beetles that mature after 2 years development. Dyer, E.D.A. 1970. Larval diapause in Dendroctonus obsesus (Mannerheim)(Coleoptera: Scolytidae). Journal of the Entomological Society of British Columbia 67: 18-21. In this study test logs were infested with broods of Dendroctonus obesus, and then subjected to different temperature regimes to determine what temperature conditions induced diapause. Cooler temperatures led to diapause, but the coldest temperature regime also prevented development to maturity when diapause ended. Abstract: Dendroctonus obesus (Mannerheim) larvae diapaused in the last instar during laboratory rearing with warm thermoperiods reduced to 12 hours or less, mean temperatures of 50â—¦ -56â—¦ F. (10â—¦ - 13.3â—¦ C) and at least one minimum subcortical temperature near or below the larval development threshold during the third and fourth instars. Larvae reared at constant temperature of 70 â—¦ F (21.1â—¦ C) did not diapause. Prediction of beetle populations and forest damage is dependent on a knowledge of the seasonal meteorological conditions that affect larval diapause and subsequently the numbers of mature beetles capable of initiating attacks. Further investigation is required to determine the separate effects of brood, age temperatures and thermoperiods on diapause. Dyer, E.D.A., Hall, P.M. 1977. Factors affecting larval diapause in Dendroctonus obsesus (Mannerheim)(Coleoptera: Scolytidae). The Canadian Entomologist 109: 1485-1490. This study chronicled the effect of temperature on brood development and onset of diapauses in the spruce beetle Dendroctonus rufipennis (Kirby) under various temperature regimes. Meteorological conditions can cause spruce beetle instarIV larvae to overwinter in larval or prepupae diapauses. Larvae have a 6.1°C developmental temperature threshold with development rates increasing as temperature increases. If night temperatures drop below this threshold for more than 10 day-degrees per day during instar-III, the larvae will likely enter diapause. Abstract: The effect of daily day-degrees C in relation to brood age was investigated to determine its influence on the induction of larval (prepupal) diapause in Dendroctonus rufipennis (Kirby). Daily day-degrees of less than about 9â—¦ above the development threshold (6.1â—¦ C) induced diapause in most of the broods while diapause was averted by daily day-degrees C of 10 or more above the threshold. Induction of diapause occurred no later than third larval instar; temperature changes during the fourth instar produced no change in aversion or induction of diapause. Laboratory results reveal that field temperatures during larval development determine whether most beetles have a 1- or 2-year life cycle. Fäldt, J., Martin, D., Miller, B., Rawat, S., Bohlmann, J. 2003. Traumatic resin defense in Norway spruce (Picea abies): Methyl jasmonate-induced terpene synthase gene expression, and cDNA cloning and functional characterization of (+)-3-carene synthase. Plant Molecular Biology 51:117– 133. This study used TPS probes specific to monoterpene and diterpene synthases to characterize induced resinosis which is similar to the traumatic resin defense response in Norway spruce. Stem boring insects and microbial pathogens induce a traumatic resin defense response in several species of spruce that is similar to the response in Norway spruce saplings to MeJA. This response includes an increase in transcription for both monoterpene and diterpene synthases. Fettig, C.J., Allen, K.K., Borys, R.R., Christopherson, J., Dabney, C.P., Eager, T.A., Gibson, K.E., Hebertson, E.G., Long, D.F., Munson, A.S., Shea, P.J., Smith, S.L., Haverty, M.I. 2006. Effectiveness of bifenthrin (Onyx™) and carbaryl (Sevin® SL) for protecting individual, high-value trees from bark beetle attack (Coleoptera: Curculionidae: Scolytinae) in the western United States. Journal of Economic Entomology 99: 1691-1698. This study assessed the efficacy of bifenthrin and carbaryl as tools to protect high value trees often located in residential, recreational, or administrative areas from bark beetle attack. Six of seven study sites (California, South Dakota, Arizona, Montana, Colorado, and Nevada) provided sufficient data to determine that carbaryl (Sevin® SL) was efficacious for two field seasons in protecting trees from bark beetle attack. Abstract: High-value trees, such as those located in residential, recreational, or administrative sites, are particularly susceptible to bark beetle (Coleoptera: Curculionidae: Scolytinae) attack as a result of increased amounts of stress associated with drought, soil compaction, mechanical injury, or vandalism. Tree losses in these unique environments generally have a substantial impact. The value of these individual trees, cost of removal, and loss of esthetics may justify protection until the main thrust of a bark beetle infestation subsides. This situation emphasizes the need for ensuring that effective insecticides are available for individual tree protection. In this study, we assess the efficacy of bifenthrin (Onyx) and carbaryl (Sevin SL) for protecting: ponderosa pine, Pinus ponderosa Dougl. ex Laws., from western pine beetle, Dendroctonus brevicomis LeConte, in California; mountain pine beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins in South Dakota; and Ips spp. in Arizona; lodgepole pine, Pinus contorta Dougl. ex Loud., from D. ponderosae in Montana; pinyon, Pinus edulis Engelm. in Colorado and Pinus monophylla Torr. & Frem. in Nevada from pinyon ips, Ips confusus (LeConte); and Engelmann spruce, Picea engelmannii Parry ex. Engelm. from spruce beetle, Dendroctonus rufipennis (Kirby) in Utah. Few trees were attacked by Ips spp. in Arizona and that study was discontinued. Sevin SL (2.0%) was effective for protecting P. ponderosa, P. contorta, and P. monophylla for two field seasons. Estimates of efficacy could not be made during the second field season in P. edulis and P. engelmannii due to insufficient mortality in untreated, baited control trees. Two field seasons of efficacy was demonstrated in P. ponderosa/D. brevicomis and P. monophylla for 0.06% Onyx. We conclude that Onyx is an effective individual tree protection tool, but repeated annual applications may be required in some systems if multiyear control is desired. Fettig, C.J., Klepzig, K.D., Billings, R.F., Munson, A.S., Nebeker, T.E., Negrón, J.F., Nowak, J.T. 2007. The effectiveness of vegetation management practices for prevention and control of bark beetle infestations in coniferous forests of the western and southern United States. Forest Ecology and Management 238: 24-53. This study discusses bark beetle risk and hazard rating models, effects of vegetation management practices such as thinning and fire treatments on bark beetle activity in conifer forests. Disturbances caused by management practices and natural processes have resulted in changes in forest structure and composition leading to increased competition for water, nutrients, and growing space. Increased stand density, tree diameter, and stand age result in decreased vigor. Depending on the host and insect species, current research supports low thinning, crown thinning, or selection thinning as effective measures for reducing bark beetle caused tree mortality. Abstract: Insects are major components of forest ecosystems, representing most of the biological diversity and affecting virtually all processes and uses. In the USA, bark beetles (Coleoptera: Curculionidae, Scolytinae) heavily influence the structure and function of these ecosystems by regulating certain aspects of primary production, nutrient cycling, ecological succession and the size, distribution and abundance of forest trees. The purpose of this report is to review tree and stand factors associated with bark beetle infestations and analyze the effectiveness of vegetation management practices for mitigating the negative impacts of bark beetles on forest ecosystems. We describe the current state of our knowledge and identify gaps for making informed decisions on proposed silvicultural treatments. This review draws from examination of 498 scientific publications (many of which are cited herein) on this and related topics. Flannigan, M.D., Stock, B.J., Wotton, B.M. 2000. Climate change and forest fires. The Science of The Total Environment 262(3): 221-229. This paper assesses the current impact of fire regimes in U.S. forests and discusses the role of climate change on future fire and other disturbance regimes. Two General Circulation Models predict a longer fire season and increases in fire risk of 10-50% across much of the United States, in particular Alaska and the southeastern U.S., and to a lesser extent the western states in general. This increase in fire risk has the greatest potential of all climate-driven change to rapidly change forest type, species distribution, migration and extinction. Fowler, H.J., S. Blenkinsop and C. Tebaldi. 2007. Linking climate change modeling to impacts studies: recent advances in downscaling techniques for hydrological modeling. International Journal of Climatology 27:15471578. This review of current downscaling literature discusses dynamical and statistical downscaling and the need to improve predictive hydrologic modeling. One approach to assess uncertainties in future climate projections is to merge downscaling techniques with probabilistic modeling, pattern scaling, and multiple variable downscaling. Franceschi, V.R., Krokene, P., Christiansen, E., Krekling, T. 2005. Anatomical and chemical defenses of conifer bark against bark beetles and other pests. New Phytologists 167: 353-376. This paper studied constitutive defenses in conifers such as the periderm, cortex, and secondary phloem as well as inducible chemical and anatomical defenses conifers have evolved to repel bark beetle attack. Constitutive defenses in conifers are determined by genetics while inducible defenses vary by the nature and severity of the attack. Many organisms have developed strategies to overcome both anatomical and chemical defenses of conifers. Aggressive bark beetles all have some tolerance to host terpenes and have evolved to synthesize aggregation pheromones from host monoterpenes. Frich, P., Alexander, L.V., Della-Marta, P., Gleason, B., Haylock, M., Tank Klein, A.M.G.., Peterson, T. 2002. Observed coherent changes in climatic extremes during the second half of the twentieth century. Climate Research 19: 193-212. This study followed the climatic extremes for the second half of the 20th century and created a global dataset derived from direct day to day observations and a set of 10 indicators. Over this period the world on average has become both wetter and warmer with minimum temperatures increasing more than maximum temperatures. Extreme weather events have increased over this time frame in keeping with predicted changes in climate. Gandhi, K.J.K., Gilmore, D.W., Katovich, S.A., Mattson, W.J., Spence, J.R., Seybold, S.J. 2007. Physical effects of weather events on the abundance and diversity of insects in North American forests. Environmental Reviews 15:113-152. This paper discusses the impact of weather related events such as wind and ice storms on insect population dynamics. Following wind storms geographic location, elevation, forest type, and the severity and extent of the windthrow determine the genera and species of insects that are dominant. Outbreaks are often of short duration lasting only a few years until a buildup of predators and/or lack of suitable host material occurs. In Europe there have been outbreaks in which less aggressive beetles have multiplied to sufficient numbers to begin kill living trees. Abstract: We summarize the effects of major weather events such as ice storms, wind storms, and flooding on the abundance and diversity of terrestrial forest insects and their allies. This synthesis indicates that weather events influence both spatial and temporal patterns of forests and insect communities in North American landscapes. The Atlantic and Pacific oceanic sides of the continent are relatively more susceptible to ice and wind storms, respectively. There have been more studies and reports on the responses of forest insects to wind storms, and on economically important subcortical insects than on gall-forming, foliagefeeding, fungal-feeding, litter-dwelling, pollinating, parasitizing, predaceous, rootfeeding, and sap-feeding insects. Weather events positively affect populations of subcortical insect species, and impact their colonization patterns and dynamics. Species belonging to genera such as Dendroctonus (Scolytidae) and Monochamus (Cerambycidae) may sometimes cause economic damage by colonizing residual live tree, and dead trees, rendering the wood unsalvageable. Subsequent outbreaks of spruce beetle, Dendroctonus rufipennis (Kirby) and Douglas-fir beetle, Dendroctonus pseudotsugae Hopkins, have been frequently documented in western North American forests following wind events. Wind disturbances have also been observed to accelerate the life-cycles of D. rufipennis and Semanotus litigiosus (Casey) (Cerambycidae), and in rare instances, have caused Monochamus spp. to become primary colonizers. Populations of other important subcortical species have not always increased dramatically following weather events. Foliage- and pollen-feeding insects may experience mortality directly from a weather event or indirectly through habitat alteration. In some cases, forest insects may use storms to migrate to new habitats. Populations of open-habitat and forest specialist litter-dwelling species have increased and decreased, respectively, subsequent to weather events. Forest specialist species generally rebound within a short period of time, suggesting that they are adapted to these periodic weather events. Little is known about the combined effects of post-weather-disturbance management practices such as salvage-logging and prescribed-burning on insects in North American forests. Gaylord, M.L., Kolb, P.E. Wallin, K.F., Wagner, M. 2006. Seasonality and lure preference of bark beetles (Curculionidae: Scolytinae) and associates in a Northern Arizona ponderosa pine forest. Environmental Entomology 35: 37-47. This study used pheromone-mediated trap catch data to describe the flight periodicity and lure preferences for bark beetles and their predators. Results from the study site suggest that bark beetles and their associated predators begin emergence in April with most flight occurring between May and the end of October. Gehrken, U. 1984. Winter survival of an adult bark beetle Ips acuminatus Gyll. Journal of Insect Physiology 30(5): 421-429. This paper studied the effects of different temperature regimes on the accumulation of cyroprotective solutes determining the supercooling point of I. acuminatus and the loss of cold hardiness after exposure to warmer temperatures. Although some arthropods are able to supercool in the absence of accumulated solutes, most show a linear relationship between decreasing supercooling points and higher cryoprotective solute concentrations. In I. acuminatus the supercooling point was depressed to a greater extent than was the haemolymph. Higher temperatures resulted in a reduction of cryoprotective solutes. Once cryoprotection was lost the process is irreversible. Gibson K.E. 2006. Mountain pine beetle conditions in whitebark pine stands of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. Forest Health Protection Report 6-03. This study cites lack of precipitation, increased temperature, and stands that have not experienced disturbances for decades for an increased susceptability to mountain pine beetle outbreaks. Mountain pine beetle outbreaks can kill millions of mature trees until depleting the availability of suitable hosts or environmental conditions change. Abstract: Mountain pine beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins, (MPB) populations are currently at outbreak status in many parts of the intermountain West. More than one million acres of host stands are infested to some extent in the Northern Region alone. Most infested acres are in lodgepole pine stands; however, almost 143,000 of them are in whitebark pine (WBP). In the Northern Region, unusually high amounts of MPB-infested WBP stands are found in northern Idaho and west-central Montana in addition to forests in southwestern Montana, and Yellowstone National Park (NP)—the latter a part of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE). In 2005, we recorded the highest level of MPBcaused WPB mortality in any one year for which we have data. Unpublished office reports indicate a similar series of outbreaks existed in the 1930s—another period of unusually warm temperatures—in Southeastern Idaho, Southwestern Montana and Yellowstone NP; but we have no records documenting the extent of those outbreaks. By most accounts, those outbreaks were probably at least as extensive as current ones. So, while present outbreaks are devastating and unusual; they are likely not unprecedented. Gilbert E., Powell J.A., Logan J.A., Bentz B.J. 2004. Comparison of three models predicting developmental milestones given environmental and individual variation. Bulletin of mathematical biology 66(6): 1821-1850. This study compared the Extended von Foerster model, distributed delay model, and the Sharpe and Michele model for accuracy in the prediction of development rates for mountain pine beetle Dendroctonus ponderosae (Hopkins). In poikilothermic organisms, the rate of metabolism is determined by the temperature of their habitat. Synchronization of life-stages is strongly enhanced by temperature induced periods of quiescence when development stops. Abstract: In all organisms, phenotypic variability is an evolutionary stipulation. Because the development of poikilothermic organisms depends directly on the temperature of their habitat, environmental variability is also an integral factor in models of their phenology. In this paper we present two existing phenology models, the distributed delay model and the Sharpe and DeMichele model, and develop an alternate approach, called the Extended von Foerster model, based on the age-structured McKendrick-von Foerster partial differential model. We compare the models theoretically by examining the biological assumptions made in the basic derivation of each approach. In particular, we focus on each model’s ability to incorporate variability among individuals as well as variability in the environment. When compared against constant temperature mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins) laboratory developmental data, the Extended von Foerster model exhibits the highest correlation between theory and observation. Gitay, H., Brown, S., Easterling, W., Jallow, B. 2001. Ecosystems and their goods and services. In Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. J. McCarthy, O. Canziani, N. Leary, D. Dokken, and K. White (eds.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, England. This chapter covers current experimental evidence regarding climate change and future expectations of the impact of climate change on agriculture, wildlife, forests, woodlands, arctic and alpine ecosystems as well as wetlands, lakes, and streams. Boreal forests will likely experience the earliest and largest impacts of global warming and have already shown a change in seasonal thaw patterns and a lengthened growing season. Many boreal forests will have an increase in NPP as a result of longer growing seasons and increasing heat sums. Gomi, T., Takeda, M. 1996. Changes in Life-History Traits in the Fall Webworm within Half a Century of Introduction to Japan. Functional Ecology, Vol.10, No. 3, 384-389. This study determined that changes in development rate and/or critical photoperiod can cause a shift from a bivotine to a trivoltine life cycle. This change occurred in a population of Fall Webworm within 40 years after successful colonization of Japan. Grulke, N.E., Minnich, R.A., Paine, T.D., Seybold, S.J., Chavez, D., Riggan, P.J., Dunn, A. 2008. Air pollution increases forest susceptibility to wildfires: A case study in the San Bernardino Mountains in southern California, Pgs. xxx-xxx, In: A. Bytnerowicz and M. Arbaugh (eds.), Air Pollution and Fire, Developments on Environmental Science, Elsevier Science, San Diego in press. This chapter links the use of fossil fuels and the increase in greenhouse gasses such as nitrogen oxides and ozone and their effects on forest health and susceptibility to bark beetle outbreaks and fire. Elevated nitrogen levels increase aboveground forest biomass, increasing forest density and ground litter while slowing decomposition rates. Ozone reduces photosynthesis and increases susceptibility to drought, which in turn increases risk of beetle attack. Trees killed from drought or beetle attack in turn increase the severity of fire hazard. Abstract: Many factors increase susceptibility of forests to wildfire. Among them are increases in human population, changes in land use, fire suppression, and frequent droughts. These factors have been exacerbating forest susceptibility to wildfires over the last century in southern California. Here we report on the significant role that air pollution has on increasing forest susceptibility to wildfires, as unfolded in the San Bernardino Mountains from 1999 to 2003. Air pollution, specifically ozone (O3), and wet and dry deposition of nitrogenous compounds from fossil fuel combustion, has significantly increased since industrialization of the region after WWII. Ozone and elevated nitrogen deposition cause specific changes in forest tree carbon, nitrogen, and water balance that enhance individual tree susceptibility to drought and bark beetle attack, and these changes contribute to whole ecosystem susceptibility to wildfire. For example, elevated O3 and N deposition increase leaf turnover rates and leaf and branch litter, and decrease decomposability of litter. Uncharacteristically, deep litter layers develop in mixed conifer forests affected by air pollutants. Elevated O3 and N deposition decrease the proportion of whole tree biomass in foliage and roots, the latter effect increasing tree susceptibility to drought and beetle attack. Because both foliar and root mass is compromised, carbohydrates are stored in the bole over winter. Elevated O 3 increases drought stress by significantly reducing plant control of water loss. The resulting increase in canopy transpiration, combined with [O3 + N deposition]-induced decreases in root mass significantly increase tree susceptibility to drought stress, and when additionally combined with increased bole carbohydrates, perhaps all contribute to success of bark beetle attack. Phenomenological and experimental evidence is presented to support the role of these factors contributing to the susceptibility of forests to wildfire in southern California. Handa, I.T., Körner, C., Hättenschwiler, S. 2006. Conifer stem growth at the altitudinal treeline in response to four years of CO2 enrichment. Global Change Biology 12: 2417-2430. This study used free air CO2 enrichment (FACE) experiments to determine the effects of elevated CO2 on two treeline ecotone conifer species under natural conditions. CO2 enrichment resulted in enlarged tracheids and decreased cell wall thickness for L. sibirica impacting its ability to withstand environmental forces. Changes in tracheid diameter may also impact water conductivity making conifers in colder climates vulnerable to freezing induced embolisms. Hansen, A.J., R.P. Nielson, V.H. Dale, C.H. Flather, L.R. Iverson, D.J. Currie, S. Shafer, R. cook, P.J. Bartlein. 2001. Global change in forests: Responses of species, communities and biomes. Bioscience 51: 765-779. This study synthesizes the current knowledge regarding land use and climate change and projects the impacts on species diversity, communities, and biomes. Global changes in land use and climate effect abundance and distribution of species. The disturbance of even a single species within a system can cause a chain of reaction within that system, which in turn can feed back to influence climate and land use, and thus affect human well-being. Abstract: Global change is often perceived as human-induced modifications in climate. Indeed, human activities have undeniably altered the atmosphere, and probably the climate as well (Watson et al. 1998). At the same time, most of the world’s forests have also been extensively modified by human use of the land (Houghton 1994). Thus, climate and land use are two prongs of human-induced global change. The effect of these forces on forests is mediated by the organisms within forests. Consideration of climate, land use, and biological diversity is key to understanding forest response to global change. Biological diversity refers to the variety of life at organizational levels from genotypes through biomes (Franklin 1993). The responses of ecological systems to global change reflect the organisms that are within them. While ecologists have sometimes not seen the forest for the trees, so to speak, it is also true that forests cannot be understood without knowledge of the trees and other component species. It is the responses of individual organisms that begin the cascade of ecological processes that are manifest as changes in system properties, some of which feed back to influence climate and land use (Figure 1). Beyond its role in ecosystems, biodiversity is invaluable to humans for foods, medicines, genetic information, recreation, and spiritual renewal (Pimentel et al. 1997). Thus, global changes that affect the distribution and abundance of organisms will affect future human well-being and land use, as well as, possibly, the climate. This article serves as a primer on forest biodiversity as a key component of global change. We first synthesize current knowledge of interactions among climate, land use, and biodiversity. We then summarize the results of new analyses on the potential effects of human-induced climate change on forest biodiversity. Our models project how possible future climates may modify the distributions of environments required by various species, communities, and biomes. Current knowledge, models, and funding did not allow these analyses to examine the population processes (e.g., dispersal, regeneration) that would mediate the responses of organisms to environmental change. It was also not possible to model the important effects of land use, natural disturbance, and other factors on the response of biodiversity to climate change. Despite these limitations, the analyses discussed herein are among the most comprehensive projections of climate change effects on forest biodiversity yet conducted. We conclude with discussions of limitations, research needs, and strategies for coping with potential future global change. Hansen, E.M., Bentz, B.J. 2003. Comparison of reproductive capacity among univoltine, semivoltine, and re-emerged parent spruce beetles (Coleoptera: Scolytidae). Canadian Entomologist. 697-712, This study examined the differences in lipid content, gallery construction, egg production, brood development rates, and brood survival in semi-voltine, univoltine, and re-emerged parent spruce beetles. The growth rate for univoltine populations may increase further due to decreased exposure to weather and predation. During extended periods of warmer summers, univoltine and semivoltine populations can combine to increase the probability of a spruce beetle outbreak. Abstract: New spruce beetle, Dendroctonus rufipennis (Kirby), adults of univoltine and semivoltine life cycles, as well as re-emerged parent beetles, were laboratory-tested for differences in reproductive capacity and brood characteristics. Parameters measured from the three groups include dry weight, lipid content, and egg production. Brood characteristics measured include egg length, development rates, and survival densities. Although there were some differences in dry weight and lipid content, females from the univoltine, semivoltine, and re-emerged parent groups did not greatly differ in egg production. Egg length was slightly smaller for eggs from univoltine parents, but other measured brood characteristics did not differ among the three parent groups, including the density of the surviving brood. In a field study, re-emerged parents were determined to be flight capable. These findings imply that populations with univoltine broods will have higher growth rates than semivoltine populations. Consequently, the presence of univoltine broods, which is weather dependent, increases the risk of a beetle outbreak or can accelerate the rate of spruce mortality in an established outbreak. These results also indicate that reemerged parent beetles can contribute substantially to brood production. Suppression strategies can be more effective if managers consider the ecological consequences of brood production from the three parent groups. Hansen, E.M., Bentz, B.J., Turner, D.L. 2001a. Physiological basis for flexible voltinism in the spruce beetle (Coleoptera: Scolytidae). The Canadian Entomologist 133 (6): 805-817. In this study adult spruce beetle pairs (Dendroctonus rufipennis Kirby) were introduced into bolts and phloem sandwiches to determine the effects of constant temperature as well as thermoperiod and photoperiod on brood success and larval development. Spruce beetles are suspected to have a diapause, which results from a hypothesized 150 or more days at 5.5 and 7°C and occurring in late instar IV or early prepupal life stages. Temperature is also strongly related to voltinism in bark beetles, but diapuase should not be considered the causal agent in determining voltinism in the spruce beetle. Instead, diapauses may occur in late fall to prevent over-wintering in cold-susceptible life stages. Abstract: The spruce beetle, Dendroctonus rufipennis (Kirby), has described life cycles of 1-3 years. Although temperature has been shown to be strongly associated with flexible voltinism in the spruce beetle, the physiological basis for this phenomenon is not clear. Two competing hypotheses were tested under laboratory conditions. First, we tested the hypothesis that larval diapause, induced by cool temperatures during of before instar III, initiates prolonged life cycles while larvae not diapausing complete development to adults before the first winter. We compared development times at constant temperature (12 â—¦C) and filed-simulated thermoperiod treatments against development times in a reference (21â—¦C) treatment for which there is no indication of diapause induction. The constant temperature treatment not significantly longer than the reference treatment, but only by a few days. These results provide little support for the hypothesis of larval diapause induction during or before instar III. Second, we investigated the hypothesis of life-cycle regulation through life stage specific developmental temperature thresholds, particularly, a relatively high threshold for pupation that might prevent development beyond the prepupal life stage under cool conditions. We found little evidence of distinct differences in lowtemperature thresholds between life stages. Instar-IV larvae held at <15â—¦C, however, did not pupate for 125-300 days, a developmental arrest that suggests diapause. Based on all present and previous investigations, the inductionsensitive phase appears to be late in the instar-IV or early in the prepupal stages. For semivoltine spruce beetles, this life stage occurs late in the growing season, after most temperature-dependant development has been completed. It is our conclusion that spruce beetle voltinism is primarily under direct temperature control and that prepupal diapause is the default overwintering strategy for individuals not completing development to maturity by fall. Hansen, E.M., Bentz, B.J., Turner, D.L. 2001b. Temperature-based model for predicting univoltine brood proportions in spruce beetle (Coleoptera: Scolytidae). The Canadian Entomologist 133:827–841. This study recorded temperatures at eight sampling areas determined within one week of spruce beetle infestation and used that data to produce a temperature based model for predicting spruce beetle voltinism. The timing of thermal input, rather than a single temperature threshold, is crucial in determining spruce beetle voltinism. The aspect and location of the tree bole further influences these dynamics (south facing tree boles receive more solar radiation). The model uses cumulative hours above 17°C that elapse from 40 to 90 days after peak flight as well as six aspects by height specific inputs to determine percentage of univoltine or multivoltine broods in a stand. Abstract: The spruce beetle, Dendroctonus rufipennis (Kirby), has possible life cycles of 1 or 2 years. Empirical and experimental evidence suggest that temperature is the primary regulator of these life-history pathways. These different life cycles potentially result in substantial differences in population dynamics and subsequent spruce mortality. A multiyear field study was conducted in Utah, Colorado, and Alaska, to monitor spruce beetle development under a variety of field conditions with concurrent air temperature measurements. This information was used to model the tree- or stand-level proportion of univoltine beetles as a function of air temperature. Temperatures were summarized as averages, cumulative time, and accumulated heat units above specified thresholds over various seasonal intervals. Sampled proportions of univoltine insects were regressed against the summarized temperature values in logistic models. The best predictive variable, as evaluated by Akaike’s Information Criterion, was found to be cumulative hours above a threshold of 17â—¦C elapsed from 40 to 90 days following peak adult funnel-trap captures. Because the model can be used to forecast trends in spruce beetle populations and associated spruce mortality, it is a tool for forest planning. Hanson, P.J., Weltzin, J.F. 2000. Drought disturbance from climate change: Response of United States forests. The Science of the Total Environment 262:205–220. This paper discusses current drought conditions and future drought projections as a result of climate change and the impact of drought on individual plants and forest communities. Some general circulation models predict increased drought occurrence in the western United States. Mortality of seedlings and saplings is predicted as well as increased susceptibility of mature trees to insect attack and disease. The anthropogenic driven increase of CO2 in the atmosphere may mediate the effects of drought, as plant water use will be reduced. Herms, D.A., Mattson, W.J. 1992. The dilemma of plants: To grow or defend. The Quarterly Review of Biology 67: 283-335. This paper discusses the strong inverse relationship between allocation to growth and allocations to maintenance, storage, reproduction and defense. Phenolic synthesis as well as alkaloid synthesis, with its amino acid precursors, competes with growth for common substrates. Herweijer, C., Seager, R., Cook, E.R., Emile-Geay, J. 2007. North American droughts of the last millennium from a gridded network of tree-ring data. Journal of Climate 20: 1353-1376. This paper used tree ring and surface sea temperature data to study ENSO induced hydroclimatic variability and the severity and persistence of droughts over the past 1000 years. Modern day droughts are equal in severity and spatial distribution to the mega-droughts that occurred between the eleventh and fourteenth centuries. Modern droughts last only a few years whereas the Medieval mega-droughts were persistent and often lasted for decades. Hicke, J.A., Jenkins, J.C. 2008. Mapping lodgepole pine stand structure susceptibility to mountain pine beetle attack across the western United States. Forest Ecology and Management 255(5-6): 1536-1547. This study used plot level stand age, stem density and basal area data from the Resources Plannign Act inventory to develop county level stand structure and pine structure susceptibility indices. Stand structure, beetle populations and climatic suitability all influence mountain pine beetle outbreak potential. Abstract: Mountain pine beetle (MPB) outbreaks are important disturbances of forests in the western United States. Stand conditions influence the success of MPB attack through food availability, shelter, and effects on tree vigor and thus the ability of a tree to withstand MPB infestation. We estimated the contribution of stand structure to susceptibility to MPB-caused mortality in lodgepole pine forests by applying a model that incorporates stand age, stem density, and basal area by species. We utilized tree-level measurements across the western United States from the USDA Forest Service Resources Planning Act inventory database that permitted plot-level and county-level analysis. In the western United States, we found that stands were typically in age classes (60–120 years) and stem densities (>400 stem ha_1) that are highly susceptible. A third structural factor, the percentage of susceptible pine basal area within a stand (compared to all trees within that stand), typically reduced stand susceptibility across the region. However, when we considered the susceptibility of only the pine component instead of the entire stand, we found substantially increased susceptibility index values. Regional susceptibility was high (pine component susceptibility index >50, which has been related in past studies to 34% loss of stand basal area) for 2.8 Mha, or 46%, of lodgepole pine forest. Maps revealed variability among regions, with the highest susceptibility in the southern Rocky Mountains and the lowest in the coastal states. Our analysis provides useful information to land managers concerned with future forest ecosystem dynamics and forest susceptibility to MPB outbreak. Hicke, J.A., Logan, J.A., Powell, J., Ojima, D.S. 2006. Changing temperatures influence suitability for modeled mountain pine beetle outbreaks in the western United States. Journal of Geophysical Research 11:GO2019, doi:10.1029/2005JG000101. This study modeled current spatial patterns of adaptive seasonality and analyzed the furure impacts of climate on adaptive seasonality in the mountain pine beetle. A reduction in adaptive seasonality resulting from warming temperatures may impact insect disturbances at lower elevations and shift some lodgepole pine stands from intermediate succession stage to climax stage. Mountain pine beetle populations at higher elevations in the Northern and Middle Rockies have shown an increase in adaptive seasonality resulting in outbreaks in novel environments. Abstract: Insect outbreaks are significant disturbances in forests of the western United States, with infestation comparable in area to fire. Outbreaks of mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins) require life cycles of one year with synchronous emergence of adults from host trees at an appropriate time of year (termed ‘‘adaptive seasonality’’) to overwhelm tree defenses. The annual course of temperature plays a major role in governing life stage development and imposing synchrony on mountain pine beetle populations. Here we apply a process-based model of adaptive seasonality across the western United States using gridded daily temperatures from the Vegetation/Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project (VEMAP) over the period 1895–2100. Historical locations of modeled adaptive seasonality overlay much of the distribution of lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Douglas), a favored host, indicating that suitable temperatures for outbreak occurred in areas of host availability. A range of suitable temperatures, both in the mean and over an annual cycle, resulted in adaptive seasonality. Adaptive seasonality typically occurred when mean annual temperatures were 3â—¦C –6â—¦C, but also included locations where mean temperatures were as low as 1â—¦C or as high as 11â—¦C, primarily as a result of variability in winter temperatures. For most locations, years of adaptive seasonality were uncommon during 1895– 1993. We analyzed historical temperatures and adaptive seasonality in more detail in three northern forest ecoprovinces. In the Northern and Middle Rockies, areas of adaptive seasonality decreased at lower elevations and increased at higher elevations during warmer periods, resulting in a movement upward in elevation of adaptive seasonality. In contrast, the Cascade Mountains exhibited overall declines in adaptive seasonality with higher temperatures regardless of elevation. Projections of future warming (5â—¦C in the western United States) resulted in substantial reductions in the overall area of adaptive seasonality. At the highest elevations, predicted warmer conditions will result in increases in the area of adaptive seasonality. Our findings suggest that future climate change may alter forest ecosystems indirectly through alteration of these important disturbances. Hill, J. K., C. D. Thomas and B. Huntley. 1999. Climate and habitat availability determine 20th century changes in a butterfly’s range margin. Proceedings of the Royal Society Series B Biology 226:1197-206. This study used historical climate data and present distribution of Pararge aegeria to test the proposed model and predict future distribution as a result of climate change. P. aegeria has re-expanded its distribution in the UK during the 20th century as areas in the northern range margin have become more climatically suitable. Historical data show that climate and distribution of habitat may be important factors in determining species distribution. Hoerling, M., Eischeid, J., Quan, X., Xu, T. 2007. Explaining the record US warmth of 2006. Geophysical Research Letters 34: L17704, doi:10.1029/2007GL030643. This study used modeling to test the possibility of greenhouse gas forcing or El Niño as the cause of the record warmth of 2006 in the United States. Only 1% of the El Niño model simulations produced temperatures as warm as were observed in 2006 in the United States as compared to 15% of the model simulations under greenhouse gas forcing. The greenhouse gas signal accounts for over half of the observed increase in warmth for 2006. Hoffmann, A. A., A. Anderson, and R. Hallas. 2002. Opposing clines for high and low temperature resistance in Drosophila melanogaster. Ecology Letters 5:614-618. This study assessed genetic variation along a latitudinal cline relating to thermal traits occurring within the Australian insect species Drosophila melanogaster. Specimens sampled from higher latitudes were relatively more resistant to cold shock and recovered faster from chill coma than their low-latitude counterparts. Low latitude samples were also found to be more heat resistant than high latitude samples. Holsten, E.H., RW Their, R.W. Munson, A.S., Gibson, K.E. 1999. The spruce beetle. Forest Insect Disease Leaflet 127 - US Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Washington, DC. This leaflet describes the spruce beetle life cycle, preferred stand conditions, and silvicultural and chemical strategies for managing spruce forests. Stands that are primarily large diameter old growth spruce, have slow growth rates and high density are particularly susceptible to spruce beetle attack. There have been as many as 30 million trees killed per year in 2.3 million acres of Alaskan spruce forests over the past 7 years. Abstract: The spruce beetle, Dendroctonus rufipennis (Kirby), is the most significant natural mortality agent of mature spruce. Outbreaks of this beetle have caused extensive spruce mortality from Alaska to Arizona and have occurred in every forest with substantial spruce stands. Spruce beetle damage results in the loss of 333 to 500 million board feet of spruce saw timber annually. More than 2.3 million acres of spruce forests have been infested in Alaska in the last 7 years with an estimated 30 million trees killed per year at the peak of the outbreak. In the 1990’s, spruce beetle outbreaks in Utah infested more than 122,000 acres and killed more than 3,000,000 spruce trees. In the past 25 years, outbreaks have resulted in estimated losses of more than 25 million board feet in Montana, 31 million in Idaho, Over 100 million in Arizona, 2 billion in Alaska, and 3 billion in British Columbia. Holsten, E. H., Webb, W., Shea, P. J, Werner, R. A. 2002. Release rates of methylcyclohexenone and verbenone from bubble cap and bead releasers under field conditions suitable for the management of bark beetles in California, Oregon, and Alaska. RP-PNW-544. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Portland, OR. This paper studied the release rates of MCH and verbenone at various sites and temperatures from bubble cap and bead releasers as tools to utilize in the management of bark beetle outbreaks. Saturation vapor pressure (which increased exponentially with temperature) and membrane conductance determine release rates of verbenone bubble caps. Higher temperatures initially caused a rapid release rate of MCH resulting in lower release rates later in the season. Abstract: Devices releasing antiaggregation pheromones, such as MCH (3methyl-2-cyclohexen-1-one) and verbenone (4-methylene-6,6dimethylbicyclo(3.1.1)hept-2-ene), are used experimentally to manipulate destructive populations of bark beetles. Two slow release devices, bubble caps attached to boles of trees and granular beads placed on the ground, were tested in forests of California, Oregon, and Alaska to determine their release rates. The hypothesis was that ambient air and soil temperatures were major determinants in the release rates of the releaser devices. Release rates of both bubble caps and beads differed greatly. The fastest rate was for bubble caps at a warm, California pine (Pinus spp.) site where it was 15 times faster than the rate at a cool Sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis Bong. Carr.) site in Alaska. Beads released MCH quickly and were rendered ineffective in less than 2 weeks. Little or no release occurred thereafter, regardless of the amount of pheromone remaining in the bead, or litter layer temperature. Release rates determined under field conditions are useful for the field entomologist and are vital to the development of models for semiochemical dispersion. Huber, D.P.W., Phillipe, R.N., Madilao, L.L., Sturrock, R.N., Bohlmann, J. 2004. Changes in anatomy and terpene chemistry in roots of Douglas-fir seedlings following treatment with methyl jasmonate. Tree Physiology 25:1075–1083. This study used methyl jasmonate (MeJA) to induce anatomical, chemical and biochemical reactions similar to those observed by plants exposed to mechanical or insect damage. Terpene synthase activity increased after stem and foliage application of MeJA with many families showing increased concentrations of monoterpeniods, diterpeniods, and sesquiterpeniods in the wood. Huey, R.B., Gilchrist, G.W., Carlson, M.L., Berrigan, D., Serra, L. 2000. Rapid Evolution of a Geographic Cline in Size in an Introduced Fly. Science Vol. 287. no. 5451, pp. 308 – 309 This report discusses the evolution of wing size on a geographic cline in an introduced population of Drosophila subobscura. A decade after being introduced to North and South America D. subobscura showed no geographic cline in wing size. However, after two decades there is a conspicuous cline similar to that of the original Old World population indicating a rapid divergence in wing size. IPCC 1990. Climate change 1990: The scientific basis. Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, New York, USA. This report highlights the current climate change science regarding greenhouse gases (GHG), radiative forcing, patterns of precipitation, and extreme weather events and makes future temperature, GHG, and weather related projections. 60% of the estimated increase in the level of radiative forcing from 1750 to 2000 can be attributed to increases in the levels of CO2. Oceans are projected to be able to incorporate approximately 75% of anthropogenic CO2 emissions, however, the fraction of CO2 taken up by both land and the oceans is expected to decline with increasing CO2 concentrations. IPCC. 2001. Climate change 2001: The scientific basis. Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, New York, USA. This report highlights the current climate change science regarding greenhouse gases (GHG), radiative forcing, patterns of precipitation, and extreme weather events and makes future temperature, GHG, and weather related projections. Burning of fossil fuels and land use change, such as deforestation, have accounted for the majority of the 0.4% per year increase in CO2 concentrations since 1980. Terrestrial uptake of anthropogenic CO2 is limited by the small fraction of carbon that is able to be sequestered in wood and humus while the rate of oceanic uptake is limited by the speed of vertical mixing. Introduction: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was established by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) in 1988. The aim was, and remains, to provide an assessment of the understanding of all aspects of climate change. Including how human activities can cause such changes and can be impacted by them. It had become widely recognized that human-influenced emissions of green-house gases have the potential to alter the climate systems (see box 1), with possible deleterious or beneficial effects. It was also recognized that addressing such global issues required organization on a global scale, including assessment of the understanding of the issue by the worldwide expert communities. IPCC. 2007. Climate change 2007: The scientific basis. Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, New York, USA. This report highlights the current climate change science regarding greenhouse gases (GHG), radiative forcing, patterns of precipitation, and extreme weather events and makes future temperature, GHG, and weather related projections. There has been a 35% increase in atmospheric CO2 over the past 250 years from pre-industrial levels. Although land use is a factor in the current increase in atmospheric CO2, the use of fossil fuels is the primary contributing source. The intensity and frequency of extreme weather events has dramatically increased during the past 50 years as a result of increased temperatures. Jenkins, J.L., Powell, J.A., Logan, J.A., Bentz, B.J. 2001. Low seasonal temperatures promote life cycle synchronization. Bulletin of Mathematical Biology 63:573-595. This paper modeled voltinism in the mountain pine beetle under different temperature scenarios to determine if conditions exist for univoltine oviposition cycles in the presence of discontinuities. Analysis was extended to include quiescence during periods when temperatures drop below developmental thresholds. From a mathematical modeling perspective, discontinuities are created in the developmental map when these thresholds are crossed. Warming due to climate change may result in asynchronous voltinism in some populations and range expansion in others. Abstract: In this paper we discuss how seasonal temperature variation and lifestage specific developmental thresholds that can cause quiescence can synchronize the seasonal development of exothermic organisms. Using a simple aging model it is shown that minimal seasonal temperature variation and periods of quiescence during extreme temperature conditions are sufficient to establish stable univoltine ovipositional cycles. Quiescence induced by life-stage specific developmental thresholds, in fact, promotes synchronous oviposition and emergence. The mountain pine beetle, an important insect living in extreme temperature conditions and showing no evidence of diapause, invites direct application of this model. Simulations using mountain pine beetle parameters are used to determine temperature regimes for which stable ovipositional cycles exist. Jenkins, M.J., Hebertson, E., Page, W., Jorgersen, C.A. 2008. Bark beetles, fuels, fire and implications for forest management in the Intermountain West. Forest Ecology and Management. 254: 16-34. This paper studied the effects of bark beetle infestations on tree mortality, subsequent fuel accumulation, and resulting fire hazard in lodgepole pine, Douglas-fir, and Englemann spruce. There is an increase in surface fire spread and fire line intensity during bark beetle epidemics. Mortality due to bark beetles alters dead fuel loads over time with high fuel loads at higher elevations persisting for decades due to slower rates of decomposition. Abstract: Bark beetle-caused tree mortality in conifer forests affects the quantity and quality of forest fuels and has long been assumed to increase fire hazard and potential fire behavior. In reality, bark beetles, and their effects on fuel accumulation, and subsequent fire hazard, are poorly understood. We extensively sampled fuels in three bark beetle-affected Intermountain conifer forests and compared these data to existing research on bark beetle/fuels/fire interactions within the context of the disturbance regime. Data were collected in endemic, epidemic and post-epidemic stands of Douglas-fir, lodgepole pine and Engelmann spruce. From these data, we evaluated the influence of bark beetlecaused tree mortality on various fuels characteristics over the course of a bark beetle rotation. The data showed that changes in fuels over time create periods where the potential for high intensity and/or severe fires increases or decreases. The net result of bark beetle epidemics was a substantial change in species composition and a highly altered fuels complex. Early in epidemics there is a net increase in the amount of fine surface fuels when compared to endemic stands. In post-epidemic stands large, dead, woody fuels, and live surface fuels dominate. We then discuss potential fire behavior in bark beetle-affected conifer fuels based on actual and simulated fuels data. Results indicated that for surface fires both rates of fire spread and fireline intensities were higher in the current epidemic stands than in the endemic stands. Rates of spread and fireline intensities were higher in epidemic stands due, however, to decreased vegetative sheltering and its effect on mid-flame wind speed, rather than changes in fuels. Passive crown fires were more likely in post-epidemic stands, but active crown fires were less likely due to decreased aerial fuel continuity. We also discuss the ecological effects of extreme fire behavior. Information is presented on managing forests to reduce the impact of bark beetle outbreaks and the interplay between management, bark beetle populations, fuels and fire hazard and behavior. Jentsch, A., Kreyling, J., Beierkuhnlein, C. 2007. A new generation of climate-change experiments: Events, not trends. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 5: 365-374. This paper discusses weather such as extremely low temperatures, heavy rainfall, and drought as extreme events not trends. Although frost hardening has a dramatic effect on tolerance limits, cold injuries or minimum temperature effects can be sudden and lethal. The ecotone shift resulting from extreme weather events can remain for decades or longer even after climatic conditions stabilize. Kimball, B.A., Idso, S.B., Johnson, S., Rillig, M.C. 2007. Seventeen years of carbon dioxide enrichment of sour orange trees: Final results. Global Change Biology 13: 1-13. This was a free air CO2 enrichment experiment conducted over seventeen years to determine the long-terms response of sour orange trees to elevated CO2. Comparison of CO2 enriched and ambient trees showed that enriched trees increased their biomass in branches, trunks large roots, and stumps 55%. Biomass from leaves and twigs increased 20% while fruit production increased 200%. Overall biomass for enriched trees increased 70%. Abstract: The long-term responses of trees to elevated CO2 are especially crucial (1) to mitigating the rate of atmospheric CO2 increase, (2) to determining the character of future forested natural ecosystems and their spread across the landscape, and (3) to determining the productivity of future agricultural tree crops. Therefore, a long-term CO2-enrichment experiment on sour orange trees was started in 1987, and the final results after 17 years are reported herein. Four sour orange trees (Citrus aurantium L.) were grown from seedling stage at 300 lmol mol_1 CO2 above ambient in open-top, clear-plastic-wall chambers at Phoenix, AZ. Four control trees were similarly grown at ambient CO2. All trees were supplied ample water and nutrients comparable with a commercial orchard. After a peak 2–4 years into the experiment, there was a productivity plateau at about a 70% enhancement of annual fruit and incremental wood production over the last several years of the experiment. When summed over the duration of the experiment, there was an overall enhancement of 70% of total biomass production. Much of the enhancement came from greater numbers of fruits produced, with no change in fruit size. Thicker trunks and branches and more branches and roots were produced, but the root/shoot ratio was unaffected. Also, there was almost no change in the elemental composition of the biomass produced, perhaps in part due to the minimal responsiveness of root-symbiotic arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi to the treatment. Kittel, T.G.F., Rosenbloom, N.A., Painter, T.H., Schimel, D.S. 1995. The VEMAP Integrated Database for Modelling United States Ecosystem/Vegetation Sensitivity to Climate Change. Journal of Biogeography, Vol. 22, No. 4/5, Terrestrial Ecosystem Interactions with Global Change, Volume 2: 857-862. This paper describes the development of a climate, soils, and vegetation database compatible with three ecosystem physiology and three vegetation lifeform distribution models. Common boundary conditions and driving variables are required to ensure that differences in modeling results were not from differences in inputs. This was accomplished by defining vegetation types to address both ecosystem physiological and vegetation life-form distribution models. Körner, C. 1995. Towards a better experimental basis for upscaling plant responses to elevated CO2 and climate warming. Plant Cell and Environment 18: 1101-1110. This paper discusses aspects of experimental work on plants and ecosystems under future CO2 and temperature scenarios and the impact on the discrepencies between theory and practice on real world up scaling. Results from field studies of undisturbed vegetation often disagree with laboratory and growth chamber studies. Synchronized plant start times produce a larger CO 2 response in faster growing species not found in the field where growth and development are not synchronized among plants of different species. The closer experiments mirror complex plant interactions and field conditions the more relevant they become. Körner, C. 2000. Biosphere responses to CO2 enrichment. Ecological Applications 10: 1590-1619. This paper studied the carbon cycle, plant growth rate response, and water relations under elevated CO2. Our example depicts only one cohort of trees all growing in either a CO2 enriched or natural environment and reaching maturity at a given size. Seedlings grown in growth chambers do not reflect natural conditions and cannot be expected to mimic mature tree responses. The predictive value of these experiments is uncertain due to their lack of consideration for the complexity of real life interactions. Körner, C. 2003. Carbon limitation in trees. Journal of Ecology 91: 4-17. This paper studied the concentration of non-structural carbohydrates in trees from four climatic zones as a measure of carbon shortage or surplus. The continuous high abundance of NSCs and lipids, their increase towards the low temperature tree limit, and the experimental data do not support the “carbon limitation” hypothesis of treeline formation. At experimental concentrations of CO2 above 360-370 p.p.m. extra carbon was utilized for leaf and sapwood tissue and not for structural growth indicating a high carbon loading of forests. Körner, C., Asshoff, R., Bignucolo, O., Hättenschwiler, S., Keel, S.G., Peláez-Riedl, S., Pepin, S., Siegwolf, R.T.W., Zotz, G. 2005. Carbon flux and growth in mature deciduous forest trees exposed to elevated CO2. Science 309:1360-1362. This study used free air CO2 enrichment experiments over four years to determine the impact of elevated CO2 on growth in a deciduous forest. Fagus exposed to elevated levels of CO2 showed only a marginally significant response over the four year study period. Data suggests that trees do not assimilate carbon as structural material but “pump” it through in the form of leaves and sapwood. Kostyk, B.C., Borden, J.H., Gries, G. 1993. Photoisomerization of antiaggregation pheromone verbenone: biological and practical implications with respect to the mountain pine beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins. Journal of Chemical Ecology 19: 1749–1759. This paper discusses aerial application methods for verbenone and their effect on the photoisomerization of verbenone during field experiments. The efficacy of verbenone is affected by variations in environmental factors such as temperature, relative humidity, precipitation and wind. Exposure to sunlight photoisomerizes verbenone to chrysanthenone, which has no behavioral influence on the response of mountain pine beetle to synthetic attractants. Verbenone will photoisomerize more rapidly in southern locations and higher elevations due to increased light intensity and a greater amount of UV light that reaches the ground. Kurz, W.A., Dymond, C.C., Stinson, G., Rampley, G.J., Neilson, E.T., Carroll, A.L., Ebata, T. and Safranyik, L. 2008. Mountain pine beetle and forest carbon feedback to climate change. Nature 452:987-990, doi:10.1038/nature06777. This study used the forest ecosystem model CBM-CFS3 to forecast the change in net biome production in British Columbia forests for the period 2000-2020 due to increased mountain pine beetle activity. The mountain pine beetle has expanded its range in Canada due to an abundance of host trees and favourable climate over the past several decades. Climate change can influence insect lifecycles as in the spruce beetle (Dendroctonus rufipennis Kirby) in north-western North America where reproduction times have been cut in half due to warmer temperatures. Kurz, W.A., Apps, M.J. 1999. A 70-Year Retrospective Analysis of Carbon Fluxes in the Canadian Forest Sector. Ecological Applications 9(2): 526547. This study usednational forest inventory information, long-term records of forest disturbance, and simulation modeling toanalyze the change in carbon storage in Canadas forests from 1920-1989. The warmer temperatures experienced in Canada during the 1980’s may have affected wildfire and insect disturbances as well as biomass decomposition rates. The past two decades of the analysis period have seen significant changes in the disturbance regime resulting in a decrease in forest C sink and a release of C into the atmosphere. Langenheim, J.H. 2003. Plant resins—chemistry, evolution, ecology, and ethnobotany. Portland, Oregon: The Timber Press. This is a book on the topic of plant resins in three parts; Resin Production which gives biochemical, developmental, and systematic information, Geologic history and Ecology of Resins which focuses on the question of resin production as defense against herbivores and pathogens, and Ethnobotany of Resins. Pinus ponderosa is the sole host for the western pine beetle (WPB) in California and by selecting hosts based on monoterpene composition WPB can impose significant selection pressure. Little, E.L. 1971. Atlas of United States trees, vol. 1 Conifers and important hardwoods. USDA Miscellaneous Publication 1146 Washington DC. This is an atlas showing the distribution of the native tree species of the continental United States including Alaska. Naturalized trees as well as trees planted for forestry, shade, and other purposes have been omitted from the maps of forest types. Maps do include geographic areas where species are native or wild. Llusià, J., Peñuelas, J. 1998. Changes in terpene content and emission in potted Mediteranean woody plants under severe drought. Canadian Journal of Botany 76: 1366-1373. This paper studied the effects of increasing drought conditions on the concentration and emission of terpenes in nine Medtierranean potted plants. Plants accumulate carbon during periods of growth restriction caused by water limitation which is then allocated to monoterpenes, storage, or to wood. When exposed to drought stress the total terpene content of C. monseliensis increased by 92.5%. Logan, J.A., Amman, G.D. 1986. A distribution model for egg development in mountain pine beetle. The Canadian Entomologist 118: 361-372. This study used laboratory rearing at 7 different temperatures to develop a model for egg development in the mountain pine beetle. The instar level is the major determinant of mortality during overwintering in the mountain pine beetle. Life stage distribution is a result of individual developmental rates and timing of ovipositional distribution both of which are temperature dependent. Abstract: Mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins) population dynamics, as well as potential for outbreaks and resulting tree mortality, are related in part to habitat temperature. As a first step in development of a lifestage, event-oriented simulation model, we have modeled the temperaturedependent development of the egg stage. The completed model includes a full description of variation in developmental rated and is capable of predicting duration and eclosion patterns for any temperature regime. This model was parameterized using data obtained from constant-temperature experiments at temperatures of 8, 10, 12.5, 15, 20, 25, and 30ËšC. Validation experiments were conducted for constant temperatures of 15, 17.5, 22.5, and 27.5ËšC and for variable-temperature regimes of 15±5 and 15±10ËšC. Validation results indicated that the model is capable of accurately describing the emergence curve for constant temperatures below 27.5ËšC. The model also faithfully represents emergence under variable temperatures of 15±10ËšC. Potential reasons for lack of model fidelity in describing emergence at constant high temperatures and for 15±5ËšC are discussed in the text. Logan, J.A., Bentz, B.J. 1999. Model analysis of mountain pine beetle (Coleoptera: Scolytidae) seasonality. Environmental Entomology 28: 924– 934. This paper used modeling to determine if adaptive univoltism is an emergent property in the mountain pine beetle. Developmental rates are sensitive not only to thermal input, but the seasonal timing and pattern of the inputs. Diapause is found in the life-cycle of most insects and is used to achieve synchrony. The mass attack strategy utilized by the mountain pine beetle relies on synchrony of emerging adults without diapause known as adaptive seasonality. Abstract: The mountain pine beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins, is a natural disturbance agent of considerable consequence in western pine forests. This economically and ecologically important insect has a strong requisite for maintaining a strict seasonality. Given this ecological requirement, it is somewhat surprising that no evidence for diapauses or other physiological timing mechanism has been found. Seasonality and phenological timing for this species are apparently under direct temperature control. We investigate the consequences of direct temperature control by first constructing a computationally efficient phenology model based on previously published temperature dependent developmental data. We explored the dynamic properties of this model when subjected to observed microhabitat temperatures representing a range of thermal habitats from one region of the mountain pine beetle distribution. We also investigated the consequences of global climate change on phenology and seasonality. Our results indicate that an adaptive seasonality is a natural consequence of the interaction between developmental parameters and seasonal temperatures. Although this adaptive phenology appears to be resilient to temperature fluctuations, changes in climate within the magnitude of predicted climate change under a CO2 doubling scenario are capable of shifting a thermally hostile environment to a thermally benign environment. Similarly, increasing temperature by the same amount resulted in phonological disruption of a previously favorable thermal habitat. We discuss the implications of these results for restricting the current distribution of mountain pine beetle, and the potential for shifting distribution caused by global climate change. Logan, J.A., Powell, J.A. 2001. Ghost forests, global warming, and the mountain pine beetle. American Entomologist. 47: 160-73. This paper discusses mountain pine beetle ecology, adaptive seasonality, development of a phenology model, and management strategies for mountain pine beetles and invasive species. Mountain pine beetles do not undergo diapause which is crucial in maintaining adaptive seasonality in most insects but are under direct temperature control. The model predicts that small increases in the mean temperature can result in asynchrony and a subsequent change in voltinism. Abstract: The mountain pine beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins, is a significant ecological force at the landscape level. The majority of the life cycle is spent as larvae feeding in the phloem tissue (inner bark) of host pine trees. This feeding activity eventually girdles and kills successfully attacked trees (Amman and Cole 1983, Furniss 1997). Outbreaks of this insect can be truly spectacular events (Fig. 1A; Amman and Logan 1998). Most western pines are suitable hosts for this insect, but ponderosa pine, Pinus ponderosae Lawson, and lodgepole pine, Pinus contorta Douglas, currently are the most important host species. The distribution of the beetle generally reflects this primary host range, although lodgepole pine extends further north and ponderosa pine extends further south than the current geographic range of the beetle. The mountain pine beetle is a native insect, having co-evolved as an important ecological component of western pine forests. The inter-relationship between beetle-caused mortality and subsequent fire has resulted in a basic ecological cycle for many western forests (Schmidt 1988). Some pines species, such as lodgepole pine, are maintained by periodic disturbances. The lodgepole pine forest-type1 typically is an essential monoculture of even-aged trees that were initiated by a catastrophic, standreplacing fire. Without the influence of fire (Fig. 1B), lodgepole pine would be lost over much of its native range (Brown 1975, Lotan et al. 1985). Fire serves to prepare the seedbed, releases seeds from the serotinous cones (triggered to release seeds by heat of a fire), and eliminates more shade-tolerant species such as spruce or fir that would eventually out-compete and replace the early seral lodgepole pine. Logan, J.A., Regniere, J., Powell, J.A. 2003. Assessing the impact of global warming on forest pest dynamics. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 1:130–137. This paper discusses the potential impact of climate change driven altered disturbance regimes on forest insect populations and forest ecology. The effect of temperature on population growth rates, synchrony, and geographic distribution must be assessed individually for each species. Modeling shows that seasonal biological cycles will be attracted to a stable point within a few generations. Abstract: Forest insects and pathogens are the most pervasive and important agents of disturbance in North American forests, affecting an area almost 50 times larger than fire and with an economic impact nearly five times as great. The same attributes that result in an insect herbivore being termed a “pest” predispose it to disruption by climate change, particularly global warming. Although many pest species have co-evolved relationships with forest hosts that may or may not be harmful over the long term, the effects on these relationships may have disastrous consequences. We consider both the data and models necessary to evaluate the impacts of climate change, as well as the assessments that have been made to date. The results indicate that all aspects of insect outbreak behavior will intensify as the climate warms. This reinforces the need for more detailed monitoring and evaluations as climatic events unfold. Luckily, we are well placed to make rapid progress, using software tools, databases, and the models that are already available. Logan, J.A., Regniere, J., Gray, D.R., Munson, A.S. 2007. Risk assessment in the face of a changing environment: gypsy moth and climate change in Utah. Ecological Applications 17(1): 101-17. This paper discussed the probability of anthropogenically assisted range expansion and evaluated the risk for establishment of the gypsy moth after introduction into new habitat. Landscape maps of the gypsy moth establishment hazard were producued using the BioSIM system. After running the model for 10 generations with weather related driving variables a probability for adaptive seasonality was determined. Abstract: The importance of efficaciously assessing the risk for introduction and establishment of pest species is an increasingly important ecological and economic issue. Evaluation of climate is fundamental to determining the potential success of an introduced or invasive insect pest. However, evaluating climatic suitability poses substantial difficulties as climate can be measured and assed in a bewildering array of ways. Some physiological filter, in essence a lens that focuses climate through the requirements and constraints of a potential pest introduction, is required. Difficulties in assessing climate suitability are further exacerbated by the effetcts of climate change. Gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar L.) is an exotic, tree-defoliating insect that is frequently introduced into the western United States. In spite of an abundance of potential host species, these introductions have yet to result in established populations. The success of eradication efforts and the unsuccessful establishment of many detected and undetected introductions may be related to an inhospitable climate. Climatic suitability for gypsy moth in the western United States, however, is potentially improving, perhaps rapidly, due to a general warming trend that began in the mid 1970s and continues today. In this work, we describe the application of a physiologically based climate suitability model for evaluating risk of gypsy moth establishment on a landscape level. Development of this risk assessment system first required amassing databases that integrated the gypsy moth climatic assessment model, with host species distributions, and climate (historical, present, and future). This integrated system was then used to evaluate climate change scenarios for native host species in Utah, with the result that risk of establishment will dramatically increase during the remainder of the 21st century under reasonable climate change scenarios. We then applied the risk assessment system to several case histories of detected gypsy moth introductions in Utah. These applications demonstrated the general utility of the system for predicting risk of establishment and for designing improved risk detection strategies. Lombardero, M.J., Ayers, M.P., Lorio, Jr., P.L., Ruel, J.J. 2000. Environmental effects on constitutive and inducible resin defenses of Pinus taeda. Ecology Letters 3: 329-339. This study compared the effects of fertilization, seasonal drought, and crown size on constitutive and inducible resin defenses in loblolly pine. Plants with strong internal regulation have inducible responses that are determined by plant genotype and environmental stimulus (wounding). Increases in oleoresin production may decrease bark beetle attack rates, adult survival, oviposition success, and larval survival. After wounding, resin flow doubled within seven days with most of the increase occurring within the first three days. Abstract: The ecological literature abounds with studies of environmental effects on plant antiherbivore defenses. While various models have been proposed (e.g. plant stress, optimal allocation, growth-differentiation balance), each has met with mixed support. One possible explanation for the mixed results is the constitutive and induced defenses are differentially affected by environmental conditions. In this study, constitutive oleoresin flow from Pinus tadea was least during periods of rapid tree growth and most when drought conditions limited growth; this is as expected if constitutive secondary metabolism is a function of the carbohydrate pool size after growth has been maximized. Induced increases in resin flow, however, were greatest in the fastest growing trees during the season of greatest growth. Apparently, resin production becomes an allocation priority after wounding but not before. Understanding environmental effects on plant antiherbivore defenses requires physiological and evolutionary models that account for the differences between constitutive and induced secondary metabolism. Lotan, J.E., Brown, J.K., Neuenschwander, L.F. 1985. Role of fire in lodgepole pine forests. Pp. 133-152. In: D.M. Baumgarner, D.M., Krebill,. Lodgepole pine: The Species and its Management. May 1984, Spokane, WA and Vancouver, BC. Washington State Cooperative Extension, Pullman, WA. This paper discusses the role of bark beetles in mortality and fuel buildup, fire frequency, forest succession, and regeneration cycle in lodgepole pine forests. Drought, insects and wildfire are naturally occurring disturbances that shape Colorado’s forests. Warming trends can make fuel extremely dry and fires intense and difficult to control which can be costly to life, property, and water supplies. Warmer temperatures have allowed the mountain pine beetle to expand its elevational range. Lucht, D.D., Frye, R.H., Schmid, J.M. 1974. Emergence and attack behavior of Dendroctonus adjunctus Blandford near Cloudcroft, New Mexico. Annals of Entomological Society America 67: 610-612. This study used attacked, caged ponderosa pine trees to determine voltinism and emergence patterns in the roundheaded pine beetle (Dendroctonus adjunctus Blandford). D. adjunctus is primarily a univoltine species, with about 7% semivoltine brood emergence occurring during October and November. Attacks that occur in the spring are most likely re-emerging adults or adults that failed to emerge in the fall. Abstract: We examined the historical record of mountain pine beetle Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins) activity within Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming, for the 25-years period leading up to the 1988 Yellowstone fires (1963–86) to determine how prior beetle activity and the resulting tree mortality affected the spatial pattern of the 1988 Yellowstone fires. To obtain accurate estimates of our model parameters, we used a Markov chain Monte Carlo method to account for the high degree of spatial autocorrelation inherent to forest fires. Our final model included three statistically significant variables: drought, aspect, and sustained mountain pine beetle activity in the period 1972–75. Of the two major mountain pine beetle outbreaks that preceded the 1988 fires, the earlier outbreak (1972–75) was significantly correlated with the burn pattern, whereas the more recent one (1980–83) was not. Although regional drought and high winds were responsible for the large scale of this event, the analysis indicates that mountain pine beetle activity in the mid-1970s increased the odds of burning in 1988 by 11% over unaffected areas. Although relatively small in magnitude, this effect, combined with the effects of aspect and spatial variation in drought, had a dramatic impact on the spatial pattern of burned and unburned areas in 1988. Luxmoore, R.J., Oren, R., Sheriff, D.W., Thomas, R.B. 1995. Source–sink– storage relationships of conifers. pp. 179-216. In: W.K. Smith, W.K., Hinckley, T.M. (eds.), Resource Physiology of Conifers. Academic Press, San Diego, CA. This paper summarizes examples of carbon assimilation and utilization responses, and examines the source-sink-storage interaction at the leaf and tree scales. Pseudotsuga menziesii seedlings transported more carbohydrates to root growth during the month of November than in May. Loblolly pine with high foliar N content used starch reserves earlier in the growing season. Although growth and photosynthesis are interconnected, growth is more sensitive to water and/or nutrient deficiencies. Abstract: Irradiance, air temperature, saturation vapor pressure deficit, and soil temperature vary in association with Earth’s daily rotation, inducing significant hourly changes in the rates of plant physiological processes. These processes include carbon fixation in photosynthesis, sucrose translocation, and carbon utilization in growth, storage, and respiration. The sensitivity of these physiological processes to environmental factors such as temperature, soil water availability, and nutrient supply reveals differences that must be viewed as an interactive whole in order to comprehend whole-plant responses to the environment. Integrative frameworks for relationships between plant physiological processes are needed to provide syntheses of plant growth and development. Source-sink-storage relationships, addressed in this chapter, provide one framework for synthesis of whole-plant responses to external environmental variables. To address this issue, some examples of carbon assimilation and utilization responses of five conifer species to environmental factors from a range of field environments are first summarized. Next, the interactions between sources, sinks, and storages of carbon are examined at the leaf and tree scales, and finally, the review evaluates the proposition that processes involved with carbon utilization (sink activity) are more sensitive to the supply of water and nutrients (particularly nitrogen) than are the processes of carbon gain (source activity) and carbon storage. The terms “sink” and “source” refer to carbon utilization and carbon gain, respectively. The physiological processes determining these are referred to as “sink activity” (carbon storage, tissue growth) and “source activity” (photosynthesis), as appropriate. The relative roles of stored carbon reserves and of current photosynthate in meeting sink demand are addressed. The activities and vigor of various sources and sinks of a species (including symbionts) depend on the microclimate of a plant or organ and on seasonal changes in climate (Cannell 1985, 1989). Discussions focus on source-sinkstorage relationships within the diurnal, wetting-drying, and annual cycles of conifer growth and development, and some discussion of life cycle aspects is also presented. Lynch, H.J., Renkin, R.A., Crabtree, R.L., Moorcroft, P.R. 2006. The influence of previous mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) activity on the 1988 Yellowstone fires. Ecosystems 9: 1318-1327. This study used three important variables, drought, aspect, and sustained mountain pine beetle (MPB) activity to determine how prior MPB activity influenced the 1988 Yellowstone fires. The two 1988 Yellowstone fire study areas showed a marked difference in their risk of burning. In the 1972-1975 MPB outbreak area there was an 11% increase while the 1980-1983 outbreak area was not correlated with an increased log odds of burning. Results indicate that secondary effects such as stand composition and structure increase fire risk far greater than primary effects. Magnani, F., Consiglio, L., Erhard, M., Nole, A., Ripullone, F., Borghetti, M. 2004. Growth patterns and carbon balance of Pinus radiata and Pseudotsuga menziessii plantations under climate change scenarios in Italy. Forest Ecology and Management 202:93–105. This paper evaluated the HYDRALL model by comparing predicted forest growth under current conditions with stem data and then simulated growth patterns, carbon balance, and water use efficiency under climate change scenarios. P. menziesii and P. radiata both showed an increase in WUE in the Brasimone simulation. The positive impacts of the CO2 fertilisation effect could be offset by other aspects of climate change such as drought. Maherali, H., DeLucia, E.H. 2000. Interactive effects of elevated CO2 and temperature on water transport in ponderosa pine. American Journal of Botany 87: 243-249. This experiment studied ponderosa pine seedlings grown under four different levels of atmospheric CO2 and two temperatures to determine if growth in elevated CO2 affects the hydraulic conductivity and biomass allocation of ponderosa pine. The biomass allocation to xylem and leaves combined with the specific hydraulic conductivity of the xylem determines the leaf specific hydraulic conductivity. Our results indicate an increase in water transport capacity in ponderosa pine due to elevated temperature and atmospheric evaporative demand. Maherali, H., Williams, B.L., Paige, K.N., DeLucia, E.H. 2002. Hydraulic differentiation of ponderosa pine populations along a climate gradient is not associated with ecotypic divergence. Functional Ecology 16: 510-521. This study employed a common garden experiment to determine if populations of ponderosa pine from desert and montane climate groups diverged from each other under drought treatment versus watering to field capacity every other day. In this study drought conditions had no effect on the root to shoot ratio. A reduction in the leaf to sapwood ratio which increases leaf specific hydraulic conductance allows transpiration without inducing cavitation which can result in death. Martin, D., Gershenzon, J. Bohlmann, J. 2003. Induction of volatile terpene biosynthesis and diurnal emission by methyl jasmonate in foliage of Norway spruce (Picea abies). Plant Physiology 132: 1586–1599. This paper studied the effects of methyl jasmonate treatments on the terpene synthase activity, terpene content, and terpene emissions in Norway spruce needles. After treatment with methyl jasmonate, Norway spruce needles experienced a 5-fold increase in monoterpene and sesquiterpene synthesis. Evidence indicates that these terpenes are synthesized de novo. Volatilization of terpene synthase assay products prevented their accumulation in the needles. Martin, D., Tholl, D., Gershenzon, J., Bohlmann, J. 2002. Methyl jasmonate induces traumatic resin ducts, terpenoid resin biosynthesis, and terpenoid accumulation in developing xylem of Norway spruce stems. Plant Physiology 129: 1003–1018. This experiment used a topical application of methyl jasmonate to study the induced formation of traumatic resin ducts in Norway spruce. Resin duct lumens began to develop in the xylem within 15 days after treatment with methyl jasmonate. Treatment levels of 10 mM were most effective in increasing both monoterpene and diterpene synthase activity. Monoterpene synthase activity in the wood increased 28-fold by day 9 and remained at higher levels than the control until day 35. Masaki, S. 1967. Geographic variation and climatic adaptation in a field cricket (Orthoptera: Gryllidae). Evolution 21: 725-741. This paper discusses possibility of climatic selection as the likely cause of the geographic cline in the size of the Emma field cricket. Head width is directly related to body sixe in the Emma field cricket and declines from south to north and from lower to higher altitudes. This indicates that temperature, which varies with both latitude and altitude, has a major influence on development and selection. This north south cline reflects selections for adjustments of development time that parallel growing seasons allowing for complete utilization of resources. Masaki S. 1973. Climatic adaptation and photoperiodism in the band-legged cricket. Evolution 261:587-600. This study was a laboratory experiment designed to test the effects of varied photoperiods on voltinism and the correlation between development time and adult size. A shorter photoperiod during nymphal development had a retarding effect on maturation times with an increased effect on populations from higher latitudes. There is a transitional area between 36Ëš N and 38Ëš N where slowgrowing and fast-growing populations show two separate peaks of retardation resulting in bivoltine and univoltine life cycles. Mattson, W.J., Jr. 1980. Herbivory in relation to plant nitrogen content. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics 11: 119-161. This is a review of the evidence that in response to limited metabolizable nitrogen herbivores have evolved behavioral, morphological, and physiological adaptations to utilize the available nitrogen. At the height of the growing season Heteromeles arbutifolia allocated most of its fixed carbon resources to growth and only small amounts of carbon to phenolic synthesis. Plants in N poor soils may possess an abundance of photosynthates and be growth limited. Mattson, W.J. Jr., Addy, N.D. 1975. Phytophagous insects as regulators of forest primary production. Science 90: 515–522. This study measured the intensity of grazing, quantity and distribution of photosynthetic biomass, and variations in photosynthetic rates to evaluate the effects of grazing by insects on primary production. Plants and insects have coevolved to exhibit intricate and intensive interactions in response to each other. Insects are sensitive to changes in host quality such as aging, water stress, and nutrient deficiencies resulting in an inverse relationship between forest vigor and insect populations. Mattson, W.J., Haack, R.A. 1987. The role of drought in outbreaks of planteating insects. BioScience 37: 110–118. This paper discusses some of the mechanisms by which drought affects insect behavior and physiology such as a more favorable developmental environment, increasing host susceptibility, and lower numbers and decreased virulence of predators and parasites. Studies have shown that insects developing under optimum temperatures grow faster and larger and experience an increased fecundity. Insect chemoreceptors are sensitive to changes in chemical blends that make drought stressed plants more attractive. Mattson, W.J. Jr., Niemela, P., Rousi, M. 1996. Dynamics of Forest Herbivory: Quest for Pattern and Principle. GTR-NC-183. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, North Central Research Station, St. Paul, MN, 286 pp. This publication is a series of symposium presentations relating to plantherbivore interactions and climate change. Tree spacing and stand diversity are important factors in limiting and controlling insect populations. Resistance to bark beetle attack depends on the terpene composition of the oleoresin. Exudation rates can be low, intermediate, or high depending upon the pine species. McCambridge, W.F., Knight F.B. 1972. Factors affecting spruce beetles during a small outbreak. Ecology. 53: 830-839. This study used cages on both trap and live trees to determine the voltinism of spruce beetle broods collected from the 1957 outbreak in north-central Colorado. Through, it was established that most beetles emerged on normal 1- and 2-year life cycles, although some emerged on 3-year cycles. Fourteen percent of adults collected were under the bark for 3 years, but not suspected to be on 4-year cycle, though that possibility is not excluded as impossible. McCarty, J.P. 2001. Ecological consequences of recent climate change. Conservation Biology 15: 321-331. This paper is a review of documented changes in ecosystems and in the phenology of a number of species as a result of climate change. 60 years of nesting data collected in the UK showed that 78% of the 65 species studied had breeding dates that were on average 9 days earlier for the period 1971 to 1995. As a result of climate change local species may face an increased risk of extinction at the same time that habitat becomes more suitable for invasive and exotic species. McFarlane, N.A., G.J. Boer, J.P. Blanchet, and M. Lazare. 1992. The Canadian climate centre second-generation general circulation model and its equilibrium climate. Journal of Climate 5:1013-1044. This paper decribes the GCMII general circulation model and some features of the simulation of the current climate. The atmospheric general circulation model (GCMII) adjusted the way that humidity, clouds, radiation, and surface processes over land and sea ice were treated. The GCMII is able to simulate the current climate reasonably well, an indication of its suitability for studying climate variability and sensitivity. McKenney, D.W., Pedlar, J.H., Lawrence, K., Campbell, K., Hutchinson, M.F. 2007. Potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of North American trees. Bioscience 57: 939-948. This is a detailed study of the potential impacts of climate change on the climatic ranges of 130 species of trees on the North American continent. Climate envelope richness will change drastically as climate change forces a northward migration of suitable habitat. Assisted migration and forest regeneration policies may have to be implemented as a result of rapid ecotone shifts and slow colonization of many tree species. McNulty, S.G., Aber, J.D. 2001. US National Climate Change Assessment on Forest Ecosystems: An Introduction. BioScience. 51: 720–722 This paper discusses the impact of climate change on forest processes, biodiversity change, disturbance interactions, and socioeconomic change. Initial increases in productivity resulting from climate change may increase fuel loads which combined with drought will potentially increase the area of forest burned in the future by 25%-50%. When stressors such as changes in fire frequency and ozone are included in the analysis, some regions may experience a reduction in productivity of greater than 20%. Abstract: Atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases have been increasing since the beginning of the industrial revolution in 1850. Over the next century, increasing gas concentrations could cause the temperature on the surface of the Earth to rise as much as 2–3°C over historic mean annual levels. Variation in annual climate could also increase. The United States experienced one indication of climate change in 1988: The summer of that year was one of the hottest, driest ever recorded across the nation. Barges were stranded on the Mississippi River, and forest fires burned millions of acres in the western United States. In the eastern United States, temperatures were so high that many factory assembly lines had to be shut down. The former Soviet Union states and China also experienced severe drought, while Africa, India, and Bangladesh witnessed torrential rains and flooding. These events triggered televised congressional debates, which concluded that atmospheric greenhouse gas inputs would very likely increase the intensity and severity of weather patterns during the next 100 years. The potential negative effects of global warming—melting of polar ice caps, a rise in the sea level, reduced agricultural and forest productivity, water shortages, and extinction of sensitive species were also discussed. These findings prompted the passage of the 1990 Global Change Research Act (GCRA) and the establishment of the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). The program sponsors ongoing research (over $1.6 billion in 2000) at several federal agencies, including the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Department of Energy, US Department of Agriculture, Environmental Protection Agency, National Institutes of Health, Department of Commerce, and National Science Foundation, among others (USGCRP 1999). In addition to providing a mechanism for funding research on global change, the GCRA mandates that an assessment be conducted periodically to summarize research findings. Begun in 1997, the first National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change was published in 2001 (USGCRP 2001). The assessment was a collaboration between federal and nonfederal researchers, resource managers, and users. The assessment is divided into five sectors: (1) water resources and availability, (2) agriculture and food production, (3) human health, (4) coastal areas, and (5) forests. These sectors represent important or potentially sensitive US resources that could be adversely affected by climate change. The assessment also includes over 20 regional studies, which examine the impacts of climate change for specific geographical areas of the United States. This special section of BioScience focuses on a summary of research findings from the forest sector and regional findings of the 2001 national assessment (USGCRP 2001). The impacts of climate change on the forest sector are divided into four categories: (1) forest processes, (2) biodiversity change, (3) disturbance interactions, and (4) socioeconomic change. These categories represent key interactions between a changing climate, forest structure or function, and human interactions with forests. Mearns L.O. 2003. Issues in the impacts of climate variability and change on agriculture - Applications to the southeastern United States. Climatic Change 60(1-2): 1-6. This is an editorial focusing on a set of six papers collectively addressing the interaction of agriculture with climate variability and change in the southeastern United States. The BHI has a stronger correlation with local daily maximum and minimum temperatures and daily precipitation than does ENSO. In areas of complex land use or regions with mountainous areas or complex coastlines a high resolution scenario may provide more realistic responses to changes in forcing. Millard, P., Sommerkorn, M., Grelet, G-A. 2007. Environmental change and carbon limitation in trees: A biochemical, ecophysiological and ecosystem appraisal. New Phytologist 175: 11-28. This study examines the evidence for C limitation in the photosynthetic response, C storage and nutrient cycling, and ecosystem responses of trees to elevated CO2. Much of the soluble C is abscised with leaf shedding while nutrients held in the leaves are reused. Trees also transfer C to root symbionts and benefit from microbial activity and nutrient acquisition and cycling. This indicates that growth in trees may be nutrient limited rather than C limited. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. 2003. Ecosystems and Human WellBeing. Island Press, Washington D.C. This is a report on current and future conditions and trends of ecosystems and their relation to human well-being and suggested responses, actions, and processes that may be utilized to aviod or realize specific futures. Ecosystem goods and services include products such as food, fresh water, biochemicals, fiber, and genetic resources. They also include nonmaterial benefits to humans such as religous or spiritual meaning,recreation,educational, or cultural heritage. There is also support activities like soil formation, nutrient cycling, and primary production. Miller, J.M., Keen, F.P. 1960. Biology and control of the western pine beetle: A summary of the first fifty years of research. USDA Forest Service Misc. Publ. 800. This book contains biology, life-history, and developmental information on Dendroctonus brevicomis through 1960. Prepupal western pine beetle larvae hatch in the outer bark and migrate in towards the phloem. However, beginning with instar II through instar IV, larvae migrate back to the outer bark, where they form an enlarged gallery in which to pupate. Adult beetles perform optimally at temperatures of 70 - 85°F although extraneous weather events can completely prevent or dictate pattern of flight. Miller, L.K., Werner, R.A., 1987. Cold-hardiness of adult and larval spruce beetles Dendroctonus rufipennis (Kirby) in interior Alaska. Canadian Journal of Zoology 65, 2927-2930. This purpose of this study was to determine if Dendroctonus rufipennis is freezing tolerant or freezing susceptible in larval and adult stages and what seasonal physio-chemical changes occur related to cold-hardiness. The super cooling point for spruce beetles in larval and adult stages ranged from -12°C during the summer to -30°C in the winter. Survival rates were not affected by exposure to temperatures within 1-4°C of the super cooling point. Prolonged severe cold, light snowfall, or hibernating near or above the snowline decreases overwinter survival in D. rufipennis. Mondor, E.B., Tremblay, M.N., Awmack, C.S., Lindroth, R.L. 2004. Divergent pheromone-mediated insect behaviour under global atmospheric change. Global Change Biology 10: 1820–1824. This study assessed the effects of elevated levels of CO2 and O3 on pheromone mediated dispersal behavior in Chaitophorus stevensis. Changing atmospheric conditions and increases in greenhouse gases may radically alter intraspecific olfactory communication which may impact the abundance and distribution of many species. The response in aphids to alarm pheromone increased under elevated O3 and decreased in response to elevated CO2. Moore, D.J.P., Aref, S., Ho, R.M., Pippen, J.S., Hamilton, J.G., DeLucia, E.H. 2006. Annual basal area increment and growth duration of Pinus taeda in response to eight years of free-air carbon dioxide enrichment. Global Change Biology 12: 1367-1377. This paper studied the long-term effects of elevated CO2 on the variation in interannual growth of Pinus taeda and to determine if the increase in basal area is sustained over time. Photorespiration increases faster than photosynthesis at higher temperatures resulting in less carbon gain for P. taeda. Carbon fixed by contrasting forest types will be allocated differently. Some will experience increased stem growth while others will allocate additional carbon to fine root development. Moser, J.C., Fitzgibbon, B.A., Klepzig, K.D. 2005. The Mexican pine beetle, Dendroctonus maxicanus: first recorded in the United States and cooccurrence with the southern pine beetle - Dendroctonus frontalis (Coleoptera: Scolytidae or Curculionidae: Scolytinae). Entomological News. 116(4): 235-243 This paper chronicles the range expansion of Dendroctonus maxicanus and cooccurance with Dendroctonus frontalis in the Coronado National Forest in Arizona. It is unclear if these two species have co-occurred for some time in this area, have recently invaded or were introduced by log transport. At the Turkey Creek trap site Mexican pine beetle outnumbered southern pine beetle 34:1 and males outnumbered females 10:1. Abstract: The Mexican pine beetle (XPB) Dendroctonus mexicanus, is recorded here for the first time as a new introduction for the United States (US). Individuals of XPB and its sibling species, the southern pine beetle (SPB) Dendroctonus frontalis, were found infesting the same logs of Chihuahua pine, Pinus leiophylla var. chihuahuana and those of several other pine species in the Chiricahua Mountains, AZ. Both species were also captured in Lindgren traps baited with southern and western pine beetle attractants, both of which contained the pheromone frontalin. XPB outnumbered SPB 16:1 in the traps. Both XPB and SPB were trapped during warm periods in winter. It is possible that XPB attack trees during winter as SPB do in the southeastern US. Both XPB and SPB are highly destructive to pines, and XPB could pose a threat if accidentally introduced to pines in the higher elevations of the eastern US. Mueller, R.C., Scudder, C.M., Porter, M.E., Trotter, III, R.T., Gehring, C.A., Whitham, T.G. 2005. Differential tree mortality in response to severe drought: Evidence for long-term vegetation shifts. Journal of Ecology 93: 1085-1093. This study examined the impact of repeated severe drought on tree mortality in pinyon-juniper woodlands in the southwestern United States. Prolonged periods of drought can result in xylem cavitation and mortality in larger trees due to higher water use per unit of time than smaller trees. Pinyon mortality from severe drought can alter community structure and eliminate some species such as seed dispersing birds and microbial decomposers. Nebeker, T.E., Hodges, J.D., Blanche, C.A. 1993. Host response to bark beetle and pathogen colonization. Pgs. 157–173, In: Schowalter, T.D., Filip, G.M. (eds.), Beetle-Pathogen Interaction in Conifer Forests, Academic Press, London. This paper discusses constitutive conifer defenses against bark beetle attack such as resin chemistry and resin flow and inducible defenses such as secondary resinosis, tissue necrosis, and formation of wound periderm. The induced defense system in conifers includes localized autolysis and desiccation of parenchyma cells, tissue necrosis, secondary resinosis, and lesion isolation through the formation of wound periderm. The induced hypersensitive response and lesion size are both positively correlated with temperature. Tree vigor may play an important role in wound isolation and infection containment. Negrón, J. 1997. Estimating probabilities of infestation and extent of damage by the roundheaded pine beetle in ponderosa pine in the Sacramento Mountains, New Mexico. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 27: 1634-1645. This study used stand and tree characteristics preferred by the roundheaded pine beetle to develop probability of infestation and extent of mortality models for management use in the Sacramento Mountains. Forests with high basal area of ponderosa pine combined with poor growth for the previous 5 years are at high risk for roundheaded pine beetle infestation. Forests in the southwestern U.S. have seen a decrease in the number of ponderosa pine and an increase in white fir. An increase in density, growing stock and number of large diameter trees may make these stands more prone to insect outbreaks. Abstract: Classification trees and linear regression analysis were used to build models to predict probabilities of infestation and amount of tree mortality in terms of basal area resulting from roundheaded pine beetle, Dendroctonus adjunctus Blandford, activity in ponderosa pine, Pinus ponderosa Laws., in the Sacramento Mountains, New Mexico. Classification trees were built for combined habitat types sampled and for each habitat type series or type sampled. Cross-validation estimates of classification accuracy ranged from 0.64 to 0.79. The data suggest that stands attacked by the roundheaded pine beetle exhibit poor growth during the last 5 years prior to attack, abundant host type, and smaller diameter than uninfested stands. Trees prone to attack by the roundheaded pine beetle within infested points also exhibited reduced growth rates and smaller diameters than uninfested trees. Linear regression analysis indicates that initial amount of ponderosa pine basal area is a good predictor variable for the amount of basal area affected. Negrón, J.F., Popp, J.B. 2004. Probability of ponderosa pine infestation by mountain pine beetle in the Colorado front range. Forest Ecology and Management 191: 17-27. This study modeled the probability of mountain pine beetle infestation in the Colorado Front Range to develop a hazard rating for potential infestations. Grazing and fire suppression in forest ecosystems has resulted in increased stand densities and fuel loads. Higher stocking levels lead to increased competition for resources, reduced tree vigor, and increase the risk of insect outbreak and disease. Abstract: Stand conditions associated with outbreak populations of the roundheaded pine beetle, Dendroctonus adjunctus Blandford, in ponderosa pine, Pinus ponderosa Dougl. ex Laws., forests were studied in the Pinaleno Mountains, AZ, and the Pine Valley Mountains, UT. Classification tree models to estimate the probability of infestation based on stand attributes were built for both study areas using growth rate and ponderosa pine basal area information. Cross-validation estimates of correct classification were 0.60 for the Pinaleno Mountains and 0.58 and 0.78 for the Pine Valley Mountains. Regression tree and linear regression models to estimate amount of mortality caused by the beetles were also built for both sites using growth rate, ponderosa pine basal area, and trees per hectare information. The occurrence and mortality levels caused by the roundheaded pine beetle are positively related at both the stand and tree scale with reduced growth rates caused by high stocking densities. Negrón, J.F., Wilson, J.L., Anhold, J.A. 2000. Stand conditions associated with roundheaded pine beetle (Coleoptera: Scolytidae) infestations in Arizona and Utah. Environmental Entomology 29: 20-27. This study used stand and tree characteristics in the Pine Valley and Pinaleno Mountains. preferred by the roundheaded pine beetle to develop probability of infestation and extent of mortality models for management use. High stand densities and reduced growth rates in preceding years result in an increased risk of roundheaded pine beetle infestation. These conditions may negatively impact resin production and tree defenses. There is expected to be an increase in the intensity of and area impacted by the roundheaded pine beetle as a result of overstocking and fire suppression in southwestern forests. Abstract: Insect-caused tree mortality, fires, and pathogens are primary disturbance agents in forest ecosystems. The mountain pine beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins, is a bark beetle that can cause extensive mortality in ponderosa pine, Pinus ponderosa Lawson, along the Colorado Front Range. Despite the history of outbreaks of this insect in Colorado, no models have been developed to estimate the probability of infestation. Thirty-five clusters of one infested and three baseline plots were established from 1998 to 2000 in the Arapaho-Roosevelt National Forest in north-central Colorado to develop empirical models of probability of infestation based on forest conditions. Mountain pine beetle-infested plots exhibited higher basal area and stand density index (SDI) for ponderosa pine and for all tree species combined, and higher number of ponderosa pine trees per hectare. Within infested plots, infested trees were larger in diameter at breast height and in the dominant and co-dominant crown positions. A classification tree model indicated that the likelihood of infestation by mountain pine beetle is 0.71 when ponderosa pine basal area is >17.1 m2/ha at the stand level. A second plot-level model indicated that the probability of infestation increased with increasing ponderosa pine SDI, ponderosa pine quadratic mean diameter, and total basal area. For individual trees within infested plots the likelihood of infestation was 0.77 for dominant or co-dominant trees >18.2 cm in diameter at breast height. Results are consistent with other studies that have documented increased likelihood of infestation or enhanced mortality levels or both as a result of higher host type stocking. The simple models developed should help to guide silvicultural treatments and restoration efforts by establishing stocking levels below which mountain pine beetle-caused mortality is less likely, particularly in the dry sites and poor growing conditions characteristic of the Colorado Front Range. Neilson, R.P. 1995. A model for predicting continental scale vegetation distribution and water balance. Ecological Applications 5: 362-385. This paper describes the Mapped Atmosphere-Plant-Soil System (MAPSS) which is a biogeographical model developed to use mechanistic calculations of water balance and competition between plant types for resources to predict vegetation distribution, soil moisture, and runoff patterns in alternative climates. MAPSS makes extensive use of a leaf area index as a basis for model predictions. Nowak, R.S., Ellsworth, D.S., Smith, S.D. 2004. Functional responses of plants to elevated atmospheric CO2 – do photosynthetic and productivity data from FACE experiments support early predictions? New Phytologist 162: 253-280. This paper seeks to determine the validity of early predictions of the impacts of elevated CO2 on plant and ecosystem processes. Measurements taken at Mauna Loa indicate a 32% increase in CO2 over the past 250 years. Increases are projected to be from 93%-246% by the year 2100. Decreased stomatal conductance and reduced small root biomass may allow plants in water limited environments to maintain growth and productivity. Paine, T.D. 1984. Seasonal response of ponderosa pine to inoculation of the mycangial fungi from the western pine beetle, Canadian Journal of Botany 62(3): 551-555. This paper studied the response of host conifers to fungal infection and the change in response throughout the year and to determine if fungal growth was reduced by compounds deposited in the hypersensitive lesions. During colonization of ponderosa pine, female western pine beetles inoculate host trees with two species of fungi. These fungi are located in the mycangium, a cuticular pocket on the anterior of the prothorax. Paine, T.D., Stephen, F.M. 1987a. Influence of tree stress and site quality on the induced defense system of loblolly pine. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 17: 569–571. This was a study to determine if the size of the hypersensitive lesion in loblolly pine which confines fungal growth is related to site conditions and tree growth characteristics. Low oleoresin pressure may impact flow of terpenes and xylem resin and reduce constitutive defenses during infection, wounding, or bark beetle colonization. The increased level of hypersensitive response in June may be the result of site differences or longer periods of daylight and higher temperatures. Paine, T.D., Stephen, F.M. 1987b. The relationship of tree height and crown class to the induced plant defenses of loblolly pine. Canadian Journal of Botany 65: 2090–2092. This study determined if the diameter class of the tree influenced the size of the response and examined the relative size of the response at the initial colonization height. Differences in site conditions were correlated with the intensity of response to wounding or inoculation. The two larger diameter classes on the well-drained upland site produced heavier responses than in the slower growing trees on the bottomland plot. Parmesan, C., Yohe, G. 2003. A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems. Nature 421: 37-42. This paper presents a model that considers three variables: proportion of observations matching climate change predictions, competing explanations for these observations, and the confidence in attributing each of these observations to climate change. While some temperate species have undergone range expansion and increased their abundance, many polar species have decreased their range and abundance. The meta-analysis of 334 species determined that 84% showed predicted sign switches, a diagnostic indicator of climate change. Pimmentel, D., Wilson, C., McCullum, C., Huang, R., Dwen, P., Flack, J., Tran, Q., Saltman, T., Cliff, B. 1997. Economic and environmental benefits of biodiversity. Bioscience 47: 747-757. This study assesses the economic and environmental benefits of organic waste disposal, biological nitrogen fixation, biological pest control, pollination and pharmaceuticals. Biological treatments could convert approximately 75% of environmental pollutants into less toxic materials using plants and microbes. Costs for remediation of chemical pollution worldwide would decrease by almost 90% if bioremediation was implemented. Plant breeding for resistance genes has significantly reduced the use of insecticides and improved crop yields. Pope, V.D., M.L. Gallani, P.R. Rowntree, R.A. Stratton. 2000. The impact of new physical parameterizations in the Hadley Centre climate model: HadAM3. Climate Dynamics 16:123-146. The purpose of this study was to make changes to the physical paprameters of the HadAM2b and assess the impacts of those changes on reducing systematic errors. The HadAM3 Global Circulation Model from UKMO has been improved in several areas compared to its predecessor HadAM2b. HadAM3 uses a new radiation scheme, convective momentum transport, a new land surface scheme (MOSES), and includes the new capabilities of including radiative effects of aerosols and trace gases, and the effects of CO2 on evaporation at the land surface. Powell, J. and B. Bentz. Connecting phenological predictions with population growth rates for mountain pine beetle, an outbreak insect. Journal of Difference Equations and Applications, Cushing Special Issue, submitted March 2008. This paper combines a mathematical framework describing Mountain pine beetle success at the landscape level with a phonological distribution model in an effort to connect tree level phenology predictions and population growth rates. Timing of life stages and synchrony of emergence are highly evolved and specialized for different species. The rise in temperature and altered degree of developmental synchrony associated with climate change has been implicated in recent mountain pine beetle outbreaks. Powell, J.A., Logan, J.A. 2005. Insect Seasonality -- Circle Map Analysis of Temperature-Driven Life Cycles. Theoretical Population Biology 67: 161179. This paper describes a mathematical model relating temperature to bark beetle voltinism, and incorporating several developmental rates for different life stages, can be represented in non-linear circle maps. The model predicts synchrony of beetle emergence, despite differing dates of oviposition, through incorporating pauses in development from quiescence or other temperature thresholds to development. Slight variances in temperature bands can quickly prevent univoltinism. Abstract: Maintaining an adaptive seasonality, with life cycle events occurring at appropriate times of year and in synchrony with cohorts and ephemeral resources, is a basic ecological requisite for many cold-blooded organisms. There are many mechanisms for synchronizing developmental milestones, such as egg laying (oviposition), egg hatching, cocoon opening, and the emergence of adults. These are often irreversible, specific to particular life stages, and include diapause, an altered physiological state which can be reversed by some synchronizing environmental cue (e.g. photoperiod). However, many successful organisms display none of these mechanisms for maintaining adaptive seasonality. In this paper we briefly review the mathematical relationship between environmental temperatures and developmental timing and discuss the consequences of viewing these models as circle maps from the cycle of yearly oviposition dates and temperatures to oviposition dates for subsequent generations. Of particular interest biologically are life cycles which are timed to complete in exactly one year, or univoltine cycles. Univoltinism, associated with reproductive success for many temperate species, is related to stable fixed points of the developmental circle map. Univoltine fixed points are stable and robust in broad temperature bands, but lose stability suddenly to maladaptive cycles at the edges of these bands. Adaptive seasonality may therefore break down with little warning with constantly increasing or decreasing temperature change, as in scenarios for global warming. These ideas are illustrated and explored in the context of Mountain Pine Beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins) occurring in the marginal thermal habitat of central Idaho’s Rocky Mountains. Applications of these techniques have not been widely explored by the applied math community, but are likely to provide great insight into the response of biological systems to climate change. Powell, J. A., J. Jenkins, J. Logan and B. Bentz. 2000. Seasonal temperature alone can synchronize life cycles. Bulletin of Mathematical Biology 62: 977-998. This study modeled the development of the mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins) to determine if seasonal temperature swings in the absence of diapause can result in adaptive seasonality.The rate of development varies with temperature and life-stages and ceases at stage specific thresholds. Voltine boundaries are discontinuous when temperatures fall through developmental thresholds causing development to stop for those below the threshold. Abstract: In this paper we discuss the effects of yearly temperature variation on the development and seasonal occurrence of poikiliothermic organisms with multiple life stages. The study of voltinism in the mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins), an important forest insect living in extreme temperature environments and exhibiting no diapause, provides a motivational example. Using a minimal model for the rates of aging it is shown that seasonal temperature variation and minimal stage-specific differences in rates of aging are sufficient to create stable uni- and multi-voltine oviposition cycles. In fact, these cycles are attracting and therefore provide an exogenous mechanism for synchronizing whole populations of organisms. Structural stability arguments are used to extend the results to more general life systems. Progar, R.A. 2005. Five-year operational trial of verbenone to deter mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae; Coleoptera: Scolytidae) attack of lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta). Environmental Entomology 34: 1402–1407. This study assessed the ability of verbenone to deter mass attack by mountain pine beetle on varied dbh size class trees over the course of an outbreak. Verbenone alone was only partially effective in protecting stands from intiial attack by mountain pine beetles. Effectiveness may have been influenced by naturally produced verbenone decreasing the gradient between treated and untreated plots and habituation from remaining in treated areas for extended periods. Abstract: The antiaggregation pheromone verbenone was operationally tested for 5 yr to deter mass attack by the mountain pine beetle on lodgepole pine in campgrounds and administrative areas surrounding Redfish and Little Redfish Lakes at the Sawtooth National Recreation Area in central Idaho. Each year, fivegram verbenone pouches were evenly distributed (-10 m apart) within seven of 14 0.2-ha plots. During the first 2 yrs. of the study a median of 12% of the host trees >13 cm dbh were attacked and killed on the treated plots, whereas trees on the untreated plots incurred a median mortality of 59%. When ~50% of the trees on the untreated plots were killed a detectable beetle response to verbenone on the treated plots dramatically declined. After 5 yr, mountain pine beetle had killed a median of 87% of the lodgepole pine trees >13 cm in untreated plots and 67% in plots containing verbenone pouches. Beetle pressure was higher on untreated plots in 2000 and 2001, nearly equal between treatments in 2002, higher on verbenone-treated plots in 2003, and similar between treatments in 2004. It is hypothesized that the lack of response to verbenone after 2 yr may be related to both population size and spatial scale, i.e., large numbers of vigorous beetles in a local area with a reduced number of preferred large-diameter trees become crowded and stressed, causing a decline in the response to verbenone. The 2-yr delay in widespread pine mortality caused by verbenone would have given land managers time to use other management tactics to deter catastrophic loss of trees caused by mountain pine beetle. Pureswaran, D.S., Borden, J.H. 2005. Primary attraction and kairomonal host discrimination in three species of Dendroctonus (Coleoptera: Scolytidae). Agricultural and Forest Entomology 7: 219–230. This study tested the ability of three species of Dendroctonus to discriminate between host and non-host volatiles in combination with attractant pheromones and whether primary attraction occurred in response to bole and floilage volatiles of host conifers. D. ponderosae showed no preference to host or non host or between live and dead hosts indicating no primary attraction for this species. Production of aggregation pheromones by pioneer beetles results in a secondary attraction necessary for overwhelming host defenses during mass attack. Raffa, K.F., Aukema, B.H., Erbilgin, N., Klepzig, K.D., Wallin, K.F. 2005. Interactions among conifer terpenoids and bark beetles across multiple levels of scale: An attempt to understand links between populations patterns and physiological processes. Recent Advances in Phytochemistry 39: 79-118. This chapter discusses the interaction between bark beetles and their fungal assoaciates and various constitutive and inducible host terpene defenses. Functioning in an integrated system, constitutive and induced monoterpene defenses in red pine produced a high enough concentration to kill 90% of attacking Ips pini after 3 days. Aggregation pheromones are produced from oxygenated terpenes by de novo synthesis or from host compounds. Raffa, K.F., Phillips, T.W., Salom, S.M. 1993. Strategies and mechanisms of host colonization by bark beetles. Pgs. 103–128, In: Schowalter, T.D., Filip, G.M. (eds.), Beetle Pathogen Interactions in Conifer Forests, Academic Press, London. This chapter focuses on the chemical and histological barriers to bark beetle colonization of the subcortical environment and strategies used by bark beetles to overcome host defenses. All species of Scolytids use aggregation pheromones for host and mate finding. Aggressive species produce pheromones that attract conspecifics, a requirement for the mass attack stategy used to overwhelm host defenses. Raffa, K.F, B. H. Aukema, B. J. Bentz, A. L. Carroll, J. A. Hicke, M. G. Turner, W. H. Romme. 2008. Cross-scale Drivers of Natural Disturbances Prone to Anthropogenic Amplification: Dynamics of Biome-wide Bark Beetle Eruptions. BioScience 58(6):501-518. This study focuses on the factors that trigger bark beetle outbreaks and how climate change and greenhouse gases impact the frequency, severity, and synchrony of outbreaks. Life history, timing of stand disturbances, species, and successional role determine how forests respond to bark beetle populations. Habitat fragmentation and forest homogeneity can greatly influence bark beetle outbreak dynamics. Management practices combined with the effects of global warming such as increased temperature and altered precipitation patterns increase the risk of outbreak. Reeve, J.D., Ayres, M.P., Lorio, Jr., P. 1995. Host suitability, predation, and bark beetle population dynamics. Pg 339-357 In: Cappuccino, N., Price, P. eds. Population dynamics: new approaches and synthesis. Academic Press, Inc., San Diego, CA. This chapter assesses the impact of moderate and severe water stress on host suitability and colonization as well as southern pine beetle-predator interactions. Water availability impacts host suitability is a major factor in assessing the risk of southern pine beetle outbreak. Future patterns of high midsummer precipitation may extend the earlywood growth period favoring southern pine beetle population growth. Moderate water deficits reduce growth but maintain photosynthesis allowing for increased secondary metabolism and oleoresin production. Rehfeldt, G.E., Crookston, N.L., Warwell, M.V., Evans, J.S. 2006. Empirical analyses of plant-climate relationships for the western United States. International Journal of Plant Science 167: 1123–1150. This study used presence-absence data, statistical moels, and a fine spatial scale to develop models for predicting plant communities and their constituent species. The Random Forests algorithm predicts the spatial shifting of community profiles with only 55% showing the same profiles after one century. Increasing temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns are predicted to drastically reduce the area occupied by L. occidentalis, P. edulis, P. englemannii, and J. osteosperma. Abstract: The Random Forests multiple-regression tree was used to model climate profiles of 25 biotic communities of the western United States and nine of their constituent species. Analyses of the communities were based on a gridded sample of ca. 140,000 points, while those for the species used presenceabsence data from ca. 120,000 locations. Independent variables included 35 simple expressions of temperature and precipitation and their interactions. Classification errors for community models averaged 19%, but the errors were reduced by half when adjusted for misalignment between geographic data sets. Errors of omission for species-specific models approached 0, while errors of commission were less than 9%. Mapped climate profiles of the species were in solid agreement with range maps. Climate variables of most importance for segregating the communities were those that generally differentiate maritime, continental, and monsoonal climates, while those of importance for predicting the occurrence of species varied among species but consistently implicated the periodicity of precipitation and temperature-precipitation interactions. Projections showed that unmitigated global warming should increase the abundance primarily of the montane forest and grassland community profiles at the expense largely of those of the subalpine, alpine, and tundra communities but also that of the arid woodlands. However, the climate of 47% of the future landscape may be extramural to contemporary community profiles. Effects projected on the spatial distribution of species-specific profiles were varied, but shifts in space and altitude would be extensive. Species-specific projections were not necessarily consistent with those of their communities. Rehfedlt, G.E., Tchebakova, J.M., Milyiutin, L.I., Parfenova, Y.I., Wykoff, W.R., Kouzmina, N.A. 2003. Assessing population responses to climate in Pinus sylvestris and Larix spp. of Eurasia with climate-transfer models. Eurasian Journal of Forest Research 6-2:83-98. The purpose of this study was to develop and interpret climate-transfer functions and to use them to define climatypes. Under the Hadley greenhouse gas scenario scots pine would experience a short term reduction in growth and productivity in central and southern portions of Eastern Europe and in southern Asia. Evolutionary impacts include gains in growth and productivity in Siberia and northeastern Europe and shifts in distribution in Eastern Europe. Abstract: Weibull regression models were used to relate height and survival of Eurasion populations of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) at age 13 and three species of larch (L. sukaczewii Dylis, L. sibirica Ledeb., and L. gmelinii (Rupr.) Rupr.) at age 12 to the difference in climate between their provenance and a planting site. Univariate models using five climate variables as predictors all were statistically significant (p < 0.01), and all but the pine survival functions received strong verification with independent data. The models showed that the growth and survival of most populations of the pine and each pecies of larch are enhanced when populations are transferred from their provenance to warmer climates. The results are consistent with the view that most populations occur in climates that are suboptimal, the degree of which is directly related to the severity of the climate. Because of this projected responses to a climate-change scenario o the Hadley Centre were highly variable geographically. Short-term plastic responses tended to be strongly negative for the least severe climates and strongly positive for the most sever. Long-term evolutionary responses primarily reflected extirpation and immigration for the species of larch but showed additionally for the pine that the accommodation of global warming will require a redistribution of genotypes throughout the species’ range. Rehfedlt, G.E., Tchebakova, J.M., Parfenova, Y.I., Wykoff, W.R., Kuzmina, N.A., Milyiutin, L.I. 2002. Intraspecific response to climate change in Pinus sylvestris. Global Change Biology 8: 912–929. This paper assembled heterogenous data from disparate provenance tests and adjusted trees heights to a common age to determine the response of Pinus sylvestris to climate change. Model predictions show that future climates will be best suited to species that are not present today.This study shows that climate types of P. sylvestris best suited for the conditions projected for 2090 climate are >1000km from their future optimum habitat. The rapid pace of global warming combined with discrete generations of P. sylvestris lasting more than 100 years create a lag in genetic response of 1500 years or longer. Abstract: Five population-specific response functions were developed from quadratic models for 110 populations of pinus sylvestris growing at 47 planting sites in Eurasia and North America. The functions predict 13 year height from climate degree-days >5°C; mean annual temperature; degree days <0°C; summer-winter temperature differential; and a moisture index, the ratio of degree days > 5°C to mean annual precipitation. Validation of the response functions with two sets of independent data produced for all functions statistically significant simple correlations with the coefficients as high as 0.81 between actual and predicted heights. The response functions described the widely different growth potentials typical of natural populations and demonstrated that these growth potentials have different climatic optima, with the disparity between the optimal and inhabited climates becoming greater as the climate becomes more severe. When driven by a global warming scenario of the Hadley Center, the functions described short-term physiologic and long-term evolutionary effects that were geographically complex. The short-term effects should be negative in the warmest climates but strongly positive in the coldest. Long-term effects eventually should ameliorate the negative short-term impacts, enhance the positive, and in time, substantially increase productivity throughout most of the contemporary pine forests of Eurasia. Realizing the long-term gains will require redistribution of genotypes across the landscape, a process that should take up to 13 generations and therefore many years. Regniere, J., Bentz, B. 2007. Modeling cold tolerance in the mountain pine beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae. Journal of Insect Physiology 53: 559572. This paper developed a cold tolerance model using hourly phloem temperature readings and measurements of the supercooling point (SCP) of individual larvae at six field locations. The SCP is the temperature at which lethal ice crystals form in body tissues. The SCP is often considered a measure of maximum cold hardiness although there is substantial mortality at temperatures above the SCP. Cold tolerance and cryoprotectant accumulation are major determinants of an insects supercooling capacity. Régnière, J., Sharov, A. 1999. Simulating temperature-dependent ecological processes at the sub-continental scale: male gypsy moth flight phenology as an example. International Journal of Biometeorology. 42(3): 146-152. This study looked at the usefulness of both universal kriging and multiple regression interpolation for mapping the flight of the male gypsy moth in North America. It was found that, for kriging, results based from an equation incorporating elevation as an external drift variable, and a more complex equation incorporating an external drift variable as well as two trend terms, performed virtually the same. Kriging cross validation results were slightly better than those of multiple regression interpolation, however, kriging requires more computing time. Régnière J, St-Amant R. 2007. Stochastic simulation of daily air temperature and precipitation from monthly normals in North America north of Mexico. International Journal of Biometeorology 51: 415-430. This paper identified and remedied weaknesses in the Régnière and Bolstad algorithm and added daily precipitation to its output generating a realistic daily times series of minimum and maximum air temperature and precipitation. Applying a small amount of stochastic annual variation to monthly mean minimum and maximum temperatures may help to achieve low frequency interannual variability. General Circulation Model outputs currently do not reflect precipitation patterns at regional scales. Reynolds KM, Holsten EH. 1994. Relative importance of risk factors for spruce beetle outbreaks. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 24: 20892095. This study analyzes the relative importance of spruce beetle outbreak risk factors such as stand susceptibility, spruce beetle population size and trend, cumulative degree days from June of the previous year, and precipitation from the previous summer. Spruce beetle population size and weather patterns are major determinants of outbreak risk, and can vary considerately from year to year. Temperature is an important factor in population dynamics as it relates to flight period, life stages, and developmental rates. Higher than normal summer temperatures can lead to an increase in univoltism in spruce beetle populations. Abstract: Nine factors were initially suggested by spruce beetle (Dendroctonus rufipennis (Kby.)) experts in Alaska as potentially important in determining the risk of a spruce beetle outbreak in stands. Factors suggested were stand hazard, size and trend of spruce beetle population in neighboring stands, degree-days in the past June, total rainfall in the past summer, and availability hierarchy process. This process derives subjective estimates of factor importance values through a process of a pair-wise comparison. Analysis in stage 1 involved independent responses of two experts from Alaska. In stage 2, three experts from Alaska provided responses as a group. In stage 3, five experts, representing Alaska, British Columbia, and the Rocky Mountain region, provided responses as a group. N the final stage of analysis, stand hazard and windthrown were considered about equally important factors determining risk of a spruce beetle outbreak. Hazard and windthrown were considered about equally important and together accounted for almost two-thirds of the total allocation of importance values among risk factors. The analytic hierarchy process is an effective method for eliciting expert knowledge and can be a useful tool for development of expert systems in natural resource management, where even expert knowledge is often incomplete. Ring, R.A., 1977. Cold-hardiness of the bark beetle, Scolytus ratzeburgi Jans. (Coleoptera : Scolytidae), Norwegian Journal of Entomology 24, 125136. This study assessed cold adaptations in Scolytus ratzeburgi by testing for frost resistance and supercooling potential at different temperatures for varying periods of time and studying changes in blood sugars or sugar alcohols. S. ratzeburgi larvae that acclimated for 12 weeks at -10°C had a 100% survival rate but no larvae survived even brief exposure to -30°C. Larvae brought into the laboratory from the field and maintained at 23°C lost all glycerol within 2-4 days indicating that glycerol concentrations are regulated by temperature. Roe, G.H. and Baker, M.B. 2007. Why is climate sensitivity so unpredictable? Science 318(5150): 629-632. This paper investigates the equilibrium change in global annual mean surface air temperature resulting from a sustained doubling of atmospheric CO2 over preindustrial levels. The sum of uncertainties from component feedback processes can be interpreted as variability in strength of major feedbacks, uncertainties in observations or in understanding physical processes. Roff. D. 1980. Optimizing development time in a seasonal environment: the “ups and downs” of clinal variation. Oecologia 45: 202-208. This paper outlines a mathematical model that addresses various life-history components and predicts the type of clinal variation observed. In bivoltine populations of the band legged cricket, it is the second generation that adapts to variations in season length. In regional bivoltine populations of the rice stem borer, development time decreases with an increase in latitude. Romme, W.H., Knight, D.H., Yavitt, J.B. 1986. Mountain pine beetle outbreaks in the Rocky Mountains: Regulators of primary productivity? American Naturalist 127: 484–494. This study was designed to examine the effects of mountain pine beetle outbreaks on primary productivity with resource distribution taking place over decades. At the landscape level, fire may help to maintain a constant level of productivity, with bark beetle outbreaks increasing the risk of fire in individual stands. Studies done in the Yellowstone and Grand Teton national parks indicate that bark beetle outbreaks increased variation in forest production. Rouault, G., Candau, J-N., Lieutier, F., Nageleisen, L-M., Martin, J-C., Warzée, N. 2006. Effects of drought and heat on forest insect populations in relation to the 2003 drought in western Europe. Annals of Forest Science 63: 613-624. This paper reported on the relationship between water stress and the decline in host tree resistance to insect attack during the European drought and heat wave of 2003. Under conditions of severe drought stress, many species of trees experience a simultaneous reduction in constitutive resin flow and production of secondary metabolites necessary for defense. Rudinsky, J.A. 1962. Ecology of Scolytidae. Annual Review of Entomology 7: 327–348. This is a study of the family Scolytidae including groups, factors influencing larval development, host selection, host defenses, and population dynamics. The bark and wood of host trees provide an insulating buffer for beetles exposed to temperature extremes with bark beetles developing under dark or thin bark being at increased risk of mortality. Voltinism in many species is determined by the extent and duration of favorable temperatures. Risk of outbreak increases in areas with low water holding capacity, windthrow, shallow roots systems, or prolonged drought. Running, S.W. 2006. Is global warming causing more, larger wildfires? Science 313: 927-928. This paper discusses the role of climate change in increasing the length of the fire season and the duration of fires. Over the past 50 years the western United States has experienced a 1-4 week earlier melting of snowpacks combined with average spring and summer temperature increases of ~0.9°C. This has resulted in a 78 day increase in the length of the fire season, and a five-fold increase in duration of large fires. Ryan, R.B. 1959. Termination of diapause in the Douglas-fir beetle, Dendroctonus pseudotsugae Hopkins (Coleoptera: Scolytidae), as an aid to continuous laboratory rearing. The Canadian Entomologist 91: 520-525. This study evaluated the effects of differing cold temperatures and various time regimens on the termination of diapauses in the Douglas-fir beetle. Beetles dissected during diapause showed underdeveloped flight muscles and gonads. Endocrine activity responsible for flight muscle development and maturation of the gonads is likely stimulated by adequate chilling during diapause. Safranyik, L. and Carroll. 2006. The biology and epidemiology of the mountain pine beetle in lodgepole pine forests, Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Pacific Forestry Centre, Victoria, BC. pp 3-66, Available electronically (free) at: http://bookstore.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/ This chapter reviews the biology, habits, and population dynamics of the mountain pine beetle (MPB) with emphasis on the interaction between MPB and its associated fungi and its primary host lodgepole pine. Cold winter temperatures are the primary cause for beetle mortality, and temperature dictates development at every life stage as well as emergence and flight patterns. Distribution is also determined by wind direction and speed; most beetles will not fly at wind speed that exceed their own maximum wing speed, and also tend to fly downwind upon emergence, flying upwind only after encountering attack pheromones. Safranyik, L., Linton, DA. 1988. Distribution of attacks on spruce stumps by the spruce beetle, Dendroctonus rufipennis (Kirby) (Coleoptera: Scolytidae), and effects on the length of egg galleries. The Canadian Entomologist 120(1): 85-94. This study describes the vertical density gradient of spruce beetle attacks on spruce stumps and develops a model of attack density as a function of stump height. Responses to heat, light, and suitability for brood survival in host choice of D. rufipennis results in an increase in attack densities on shaded portions of stumps and logs. Drying of inner bark on exposed portions of the stump reduces suitability for attack. Safranyik, L., Shrimpton, D.M., Whitney, H.S. 1975. An interpretation of the interaction between lodgepole pine, the mountain pine beetle and its associated blue stain fungi in western Canada. Pages 406-428 in D.M. Baumgartner, ed. Management of lodgepole pine ecosystems. Washington State University Cooperative Extension Service, Pullman, WA. This paper developed a climate suitability and outbreak risk index for the mountain pine beetle using four principal variables and two modifying variables. The principle variables were 1) more than 550 degree-days heat accumulation above 42°F from August 1 through the end of the effective growing season, and more than 1,500 degree-days heat accumulation within the growing season from August 1 to July 31 of the following year; 2) minimum winter temperatures higher than -40°F; 3) average maximum August temperature higher than 65°F; 4) total precipitation during April, May and June less than the long-term averages for these months. Modifying variables were 5) the variability of growing season precipitation (coefficient of variation), and 6) the average annual water deficit. Sahota, T.S., Thompson, A.J. 1979. Temperature induced variation in the rates of reproductive processes in Dendroctonus rufipennis (Coleoptera: Scolytidae): A new approach to detecting changes in population quality. The Canadian Entomologist 111: 1069-1078. This study measured reproductive processes such as rate of obtaining nutrients, nutrient conversion rates, yolk deposition, the rate of obtaining oviposition sites, and the duration of the reproductive period as a measure of population quality. Gonadotrophic function of the corpora allata may be temperature dependent. Lower temperatures during gallery construction resulted in longer, egg-free galleries. Salinas-Moreno Y., Mendoza M.G., Barrios M.A., Cisneros R., MacíasSámano J., Zúñiga G. 2004. Areography of the genus Dendroctonus (Coleoptera: Curculionidae: Scolytinae) in Mexico. Journal of Biogeography 31: 1163-1177. This atlas details the distribution, altitudinal range, and variety of hosts associated with each species of Dendroctonus. As a result of extensive logging over the past hundred years, the structure and composition of plant communities has been altered. Most present day forests are second-growth forests in which the dominant species is not the original species. These forests may be at greater risk for bark beetle outbreaks which, when combined with fire and human activity, are the major causes of forest degradation in Mexico. Salinas-Moreno, Y., Carlos F. Vargas Mendoza, C.F., Zúñiga, G., Víctor, J., Ager, A., Hayes, J.L. Atlas de distribución de descortezadores del género Dendroctonus (Curculionidae: Scolytinae) y zonas históricas de mayor presión en los bosques de pino de México. Comisión Nacional Forestal y Instituto Politécnico Nacional. In press. This study analyzed the geographical distribution of each species, spatial variation in species richness, overlapping of species ranges, and disjunction patterns of 12 Dendroctonus species which infest twenty-five of the 42 pine species found in Mexico. Beetle distribution is closely linked with the distribution of host trees. Of the twelve Dendroctonus species that are found in Mexico, only D. mexicanus, D. frontalis, D. rhizophagus, and D. adjunctus cause substantial infestations. Abstract: Objective was to analyse whether the geographical ranges of Dendroctonus species are (1) associated with factors such as host species or elevation, and (2) in agreement with Halffter’s Nearctic distribution pattern. (3) To identify and discuss the factors that are likely to act as barriers to the genus’ geographical distribution. (4) To explore whether there is an association between the size of the geographical ranges of Dendroctonus species and the number of Pinus host species used by each of them, and (5) to assess if these host species are most common at the elevations preferred by the individual Dendroctonus species. Saxe, H., Ellsworth, D.S., Heath, J. 1998. Tree and forest functioning in an enriched CO2 atmosphere. New Phytologist 139: 395-436 This paper examines the recent literature on long-term and large-scale studies of elevated CO2 with emphasis on tree and forest responses and functioning. Studies in fields relating to tree and forest functions in increased CO 2 environments are limited through their methods of data gathering, and are often unable to account for different reactions to elevated CO2 within a single tree, let alone within an entire ecosystem. Matters are further complicated by littleunderstood feedback loops and the lack of modeling systems that can accurately predict on a small or local scale. Schaupp, W.C., Johnson, F.M. 1999. Evaluation of the spruce beetle in 1998 within the Routt Divide blowdown of October 1997, on the Hahns Peak and Bears Ears Ranger Districts, Routt National Forest, Colorado. USDA Forest Service Biological Evaluation R2-99-08. This study used aerial survey maps, pheromone trapping, extrent surveys, and brood sampling to determine the extent of a spruce beetle infestation in wind thrown trees which occurred after a major blowdown event in Routt National Forest, an area without a history of beetle infestation. Several broods examined in wind thrown trees were found to have an atypical 1-year life cycle. The beetle infestation was predicted to continue for several years in the downed trees before advancing to surrounding forest to kill live spruce trees at un-manageable levels. Schär, C., Jendritzky, G. 2003. Hot news from summer 2003. Nature 432: 559-560. This paper discusses anthropogenic contribution to climate change as an explanation for warmer temperatures and a recent heatwave in Europe. The two week peak of the European 2003 summer heat wave caused an estimated (US) 12.3 billion dollar loss in crops, (US)1.6 billion dollars of fire damage, damages from rockslide (as a result of glacier melt), and unusually high human mortality rates. The probability of extreme heat waves increases in response to a warming climate, and future events may become more frequent. Schwartz, M.D., Ahas, R., Aasa, A. 2006. Onset of spring starting earlier across the northern hemisphere. Global Change Biology 12: 343-351. This study monitored the phenological change in plants in various regions of the world in relation to warming trends showing that plants are responding to climate change, though not at universal rates. Measures include indicators of phonology such as appearance of first leaf bud growth, and temperature trends such as warmer winters, earlier springs, and fewer frost days. In some regions, rate of phonological change matches rate of climate change, while in others, it lags behind or exceeds rate of climate change. Scott, B.A. and A.A. Berryman. 1972. Larval diapause in Scolytus ventralis. J. Entomol. Soc. Brit. Columbia 69:50-53. This paper studied the effects of cold temperature on development and voltinism in the fir engraver Scolytus ventralis. Significant portions of Scolytus ventralis populations ordinarily enter diapause as larvae. 50-70% of larvae have facultative diapauses initiated by undetermined stimuli (possibly 150-200 days of cold exposure), while 30-50% enter obligatory diapause. Scriber, J.M., Slansky, Jr., F. 1981. The nutritional ecology of immature insects. Annual Review of Entomology 26: 183-211. This review assesses importance of food quality relative to other environmental factors and organism adaptations that influence post-digestion food utilization and growth performance of immature arthropods. Food consumed, digested, assimilated, excreted, metabolized and converted into biomass by insects in part depends on the nutritional physiology of the host plant. Rapid decline of nitrogen in trees and decreased leaf water contribute to low feeding performance of treefeeding insects. Physical wounding or stress from drought can alter plant allelochemical composition, thus affecting larval feeding performance. Seager, R., Ting, M., Held, I., Kushnir, Y., Lu, J., Vecchi, G., Huang, H-P., Harnik, N., Leetmaa, A., Lau, N-C., Li, C., Velez, J., Naik, N. 2007. Model projections of an imminent transition to a more arid climate in southwestern North America. Science 316: 1181-1184. This study assessed several climate models that predict increasing aridity in the southwest U.S. and northern Mexico. Relatively dry sub-tropic regions are expected to get drier, while wetter high-latitude regions will become still wetter. Future drought events such as La Nina will be even drier, as the base state will be drier than any experienced since Medieval times. Shaw, J.D., Steed, B.E., DeBlander, L.T. 2005. Forest inventory and analysis (FIA) annual inventory answers the question: what is happening to pinyon-juniper woodlands? Journal of Forestry 103:280–285. This paper discusses the extent and severity of mortality in pinyon-juniper forests of the southwest during the current drought as well as contributing mortality agents. The drought in the southwestern US began around 1998, leading to widespread pinyon pine mortality in the early 2000s, in part attributed to Ips beetles. Ips beetles are, under normal circumstances, only moderately aggressive, attacking and killing threes already under stress from another agent. Periods of drought can result in outbreak populations. Abstract: Widespread mortality in the pinyon-juniper forest type is associated with several years of drought in the southwestern United States. A complex of drought, insects, and disease is responsible for pinyon mortality rates approaching 100% in some areas, while other areas have experienced little or no mortality. Implementation of the Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) annual inventory in several states coincided with the onset of elevated mortality rates. Adjunct inventories provided supplemental data on damaging agents. Preliminary analysis reveals the status and trends of mortality in pinyon-juniper woodlands. Shaw, M.R., Loik, M.E., Harte, J. 2000. Gas exchange and water relations of two Rocky Mountain shrub species exposed to a climate change manipulation. Plant Ecology 146:197–206. This paper studied two shrub species Artemisia tridentate and Pentaphylloides floribunda to determine if rates of photosynthesis and/or transpiration are enhanced and if plant water status changes under heating manipulation and if these changes are correlated withseasonal changes in soil microclimate conditions. Water use efficiency (WUE) in two shrub species at normal and predicted future temperatures was measured by dividing instantaneous values of net photosynthesis rater per unit leaf area by transpiration per unit leaf area. In a warming climate, WUE is expected to decrease; however, this decrease could be enhanced or modified by the associated increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration. Shore, TL, Safranyik, L. 1992. Susceptibility and risk rating systems for the mountain pine beetle in lodgepole pine stands. Forestry Canada, Inform. Rep. BC-X-336 This study developed a susceptibility and risk rating system for the mountain pine beetle which assesses not only stand susceptibility (through factors such as age, dominant species, diameter of trees, location, and density), but also beetle pressure, a factor previously excluded from risk rating systems. Thus, the risk rating system is a function of both stand susceptibility indices, as well as beetle pressure, forming a more comprehensive model of actual risk. Shore, T.L., Safranyik, L., Lemieux, J.P. 2000. Susceptibility of lodgepole pine stands to the mountain pine beetle: testing of a rating system. Canadian Journal of Forest Research This paper examined the susceptibility rating model devolved by Shore and Safranyik in 1992 and found the system reliable for rating stand susceptibility to bark beetle attack, it also includes an index for potential loss. The rating system incorporates features from older models, but uses a continuous variable hazard rating system, as opposed to two- or three-class rating systems. Variables include tree age, diameter, climate, inter-tree competition (stand density), and species composition of the stand. Shugart, H.H. 2003. A Theory of Forest Dynamics: The Ecological Implications of Forest Succession Models - Reprint of First Edition, Copyright 1984. Springer-Verlag New York, Inc. This book inspects and evaluates mathematical models of forest succession applied to a range of scales and time periods and includes a review of ecological succession and coverage of forest dynamics models. There may be changes in community composition as a result of an unequal and species dependent response to increased atmospheric CO2 concentration. The increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration over the past 45 years has been primarily attributed to the consumption of fossil fuels. Sibold, J.S., T.T. Veblen, K. Chipko, L. Lawson, E. Mathis, and J. Scott. 2007. Influences of secondary disturbances on lodgepole pine stand development in rocky mountain national park. Ecological Applications 17: 1638-1655. This study looked at the relationship between secondary disturbances (surface fire, mountain pine beetle, and wind thrown trees) and stand dynamics in postfire lodgepole pine forests. There is a relationship between mountain pine beetle disturbances and stand dynamics, with severity and time between the original fire disturbance and the secondary disturbance (age of the stand) both influencing those dynamics, the latter having a stronger influence. Abstract: Although high-severity fire is the primary type of disturbance shaping the structure of lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) stands in the southern Rocky Mountains, many post-fire stands are also affected by blowdown, low-severity surface fires, and/or outbreaks of mountain pine beetle (MPB; Dendroctonus ponderosae). The ecological effects of these secondary disturbances are poorly understood but are potentially important in the context of managing for ecological restoration and fire hazard mitigation. We investigated the effects of blowdown, surface fires, and MPB outbreaks on demographic processes in post-fire lodgepole pine stands in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, USA. We used dendroecological methods to reconstruct stand characteristics prior to and following secondary disturbances for paired stands with and without secondary disturbances. Surface fire events do not kill canopy trees or trigger pulses of recruitment and as such do not have detectable influences on stand development. In contrast, both MPB and blowdown kill canopy trees and trigger pulses of tree regeneration of lodgepole pine and subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa). The amount and species composition of post-disturbance regeneration is dependent on the severity of the disturbance and on the time since stand initiation. Secondary disturbances of higher severity (i.e., killing .50% of the canopy trees) that occur in younger post-fire stands favor new establishment of lodgepole pine. In contrast, secondary disturbances of lower severity in older stands (.250 years) trigger a pulse of establishment of subalpine fir. The results of this study demonstrate that the high tree densities characteristic of lodgepole pine stands in the southern Rockies (southern Wyoming to northern New Mexico) are the result of dense regeneration following stand-replacing fires and that surface fires had little or no thinning effect on tree densities. Thus, current high stand densities in the study area are not the result of suppression of surface fires. Moreover, the strong pulses of regeneration following forest thinning by MPB and blowdowns imply that, depending on the degree of thinning, thinning prescriptions to reduce fuels in the lodgepole pine forest type may have the unintended consequence of increasing ladder fuels 15–20 years following treatments. Six, DL. 2003. A comparison of mycangial and phoretic fungi of individual mountain pine beetles. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 33(7): 1331– 1334. This study determined the fungi that are carried on the exoskeleton of Dendroctonus ponderosae and compared them to the fungi carried in the mycangia. Many bark beetles including the mountain pine beetle D. ponderosae, have mycangia in which are transported associated fungi, although fungi can also be transported phoretically on the exoskeleton. Of the two ophiostomatoid fungi associated with the mountain pine beetle, O. clavigerum is primarily transported in the mycangia, and is symbiotically beneficial to the beetle, while O. montium is transported in both the mycangia and on the exoskeleton, and can be harmuful to beetle brood production and development. Abstract: Two ophiostomatoid fungi, Ophiostoma clavigerum (Robinson-Jeffrey & Davidson) Harrington and Ophiostoma montium (Rumbold) von Arx, are known to be associated with the mycangia of the mountain pine beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins. However, virtually nothing is known regarding the phoretic fungi carried on the external surface of the exoskeleton of this beetle. In this study, I compared the phoretic fungi of individual D. ponderosae with the fungi carried in their mycangia. As many beetles carried ophiostomatoid fungi on the exoskeleton as in the mycangia; however, the species of ophiostomatoid fungus carried phoretically on an individual beetle was not always the same as was carried in its mycangia. Ophiostoma montium was isolated more often from exoskeletal surfaces than from mycangia, while the reverse was true for O. clavigerum. It appears that O. clavigerum is highly adapted for mycangial dissemination, while O. montium is adapted to phoretic as well as mycangial dissemination. Ophiostoma ips (Rumbold) Nannf. was phoretic on two beetles, indicating that cross-contamination with fungi from cohabiting Ips spp. may sometimes occur. Several non-ophiostomatoid fungi were isolated from exoskeletal surfaces, but none consistently so. All non-ophiostomatoid fungi isolated were common saprophytes often found in beetle killed trees. Yeasts were also common and were isolated more often from the exoskeleton than from mycangia. Six, D.L., Bentz, B.J. 2003. Fungi associated with the North American spruce beetle, Dendroctonus rufipennis. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 33(9): 1815–1820. This study examined Dendroctonus rufipennis sampled from six North American study sites to determine fungal and yeast associates. D. rufipennis appears to be associated with one predominant fungal species, Leptographium abietinum, a pathogenically weak species whose possible role of aiding or hindering D. rufipennis is unknown. Ceratocystic rufipenni was not found to be associated with any of the samples in this study. Abstract: Fungi were isolated from individual Dendroctonus rufipennis (Kirby) collected from six populations in Alaska, Colorado, Utah, and Minnesota, U.S.A. In all populations, Leptographium abietinum (Peck) Wingfield was the most commonly isolated mycelial fungus (91–100% of beetles). All beetles in all populations were associated with yeasts and some with only yeasts (0–5%). In one population, Ophiostoma ips (Rumbold) Nannf. was also present on 5% of the beetles but always in combination with L. abietinum and yeasts. Ophiostoma piceae (Munch) H. & P. Sydow was found on 2% of beetles in another population. Ceratocystis rufipenni Wingfield, Harrington & Solheim, previously reported as an associate of D. rufipennis, was not isolated from beetles in this study. Ceratocystis rufipenni is a virulent pathogen of host Picea, which has led to speculation that C. rufipenni aids the beetle in overcoming tree defenses and therefore contributes positively to the overall success of the beetle during colonization. However, our results, considered along with those of others, indicate that C. rufipenni may be absent from many populations of D. rufipennis and may be relatively rare in those populations in which it is found. If this is true, C. rufipenni may be only a minor or incidental associate of D. rufipennis and, as such, not likely to have significant impacts on beetle success or population dynamics. Alternatively, the rarity of C. rufipenni in our and others isolations may be due to difficulties in isolating this fungus in the presence of other faster growing fungi such as L. abietinum. Six, D.L., Bentz, B.J. 2007. Temperature determines symbiont abundance in a multipartite bark beetle-fungus ectosymbiosis. Microbial Ecology. 54(1): 112-118. This study examined whether the proportions of two symbiotic fungi of D. ponderosae, G. clavigerum and O. montium vary seasonally and from year to year within populations. Bark beetles in the Montana study sites primarily carried O. montium in their mycangia, while beetle in the Idaho study sites carried higher percentages of G. clavigerum. G. clavigerum was carried by early-flying beetles (associated with cooler temperatures), while O. montium was carried only by late-flying beetles. The predicted warming climates are expected to favor O. montium. Abstract: In this study, we report evidence that temperature plays a key role in determining the relative abundance of two mutualistic fungi associated with an economically and ecologically important bark beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae. The symbiotic fungi possess different optimal temperature ranges. These differences determine which fungus is vectored by dispersing host beetles as temperatures fluctuate over a season. Grosmannia clavigera is the predominant fungus carried by dispersing beetles during cool periods but decreases in prevalence as daily maximum temperatures approach 25°C, and becomes extremely rare when temperatures reach or exceed 32°C. In contrast, Ophiostoma montium increases in prevalence as temperatures approach 25°C, and becomes the predominant symbiont dispersed when temperatures reach or exceed 32°C. The possession of different optimal growth temperatures may facilitate the stable coexistence of the two fungi by supporting growth of each fungus at different times, minimizing direct competition. Furthermore, the beetle may reduce its risk of being left aposymbiotic by exploiting not one, but two symbionts, whose combined growth optima span a wide range of environmental conditions. The possession of multiple symbionts with different temperature tolerances may allow the beetle to occupy highly variable habitats over a wide geographic range. Such temperature-driven symbiont shifts are likely to have major consequences for both the host and its symbionts under current temperature regimes and those predicted to occur because of climate change. Six, DL., Paine, T.D. 1997. Ophiostoma clavigerum is the mycangial fungus of the Jeffrey pine beetle. This study isolated and identified the mycangial fungi of D. jeffreyi through a series of tests, including growth at differing temperatures and compared it to the associated fungi of D. ponderosae, O. clavigerum and O. montium. O. clavigerum grew best at a temperature between 21 and 27°C, while O. montium, though initially growing slower than O. clavigerum, was able to thrive at temperatures exceeding 27°C, and still able to grow at 32°C, a temperature at which nearly all growth of O. clavigerum had ceased. Abstract: Dendroctonus jeffreyi and D. ponderosae are sibling species of bark beetles (Coleoptera: Scolytidae) with few morphological and molecular genetic differences. The two species are believed to have diverged relatively recently. Dendroctonus jeffreyi colonizes only Pinus jeffreyi, while D. ponderosae colonizes up to thirteen Pinus spp., but not P jeffreyi. Adult beetles of both D. jeffreyi and D. ponderosae carry symbiotic fungi in mycangia located on the maxillary cardines. Dendroctonus ponderosae was known to carry two fungi, Ophiostoma clavigerum and 0. montium, in its mycangia. However, it was not known which fungi might be carried by D. jeffreyi. Fungi were isolated from the mycangia of over 900 D. jeffreyi collected from a large portion of its geographic range. Using morphology, isozyme phenotypes, and growth rates at different temperatures, all isolates from D. jeffreyi mycangia were determined to be 0. clavigerum; 0. montium was never isolated from D. jeffreyi mycangia. Six, D.L., Paine, T.D. 1998. Effects of mycangial fungi and host tree species on progeny survival and emergence of Dendroctonus ponderosae (Coleoptera: Scolytidae). Environmental Entomology, 27(6): 1393-1401. This paper studied the effects of mycangial fungi Ophiostoma clavigerum and Ophistoma montium on progeny survival and emergence of Dendroctonus ponderosae. Results suggest that O. clavigerum is mutually symbiotic with D. ponderosae, while O. montium may actually have no positive benefits for, or is even parasitic to, the mountain pine beetle. This is indicated by the low brood survival, low reemergence, and slower development seen in beetle with proximity only to O. montium than those only in proximity to O. clavigerum. Skov, KR, Kolb, TE, Wallin, KF. 2004. Tree size and drought affect ponderosa pine physiological response to thinning and burning treatments. Forest Science 50: 81-91. This study compares the influence of restoration thinning and burning treatments on water, carbon, and nutrient relations of presettlement and postsettlement ponderosa pines. Ponderosa pine forests of northern Arizona are unnaturally dense as the result of fire suppression and overgrazing, among other factors. Pre-settlement and post-settlement pine trees in these forests respond differently to experimental thinning and burning. Water stress was unusually severe in 2000, leading to more pronounced benefits from thinning in post-settlement trees than pre-settlement trees. Smith, D.M., Cusack, S., Colman, A.W., Folland, C.K., Harris, G.R., Murphy, J.M. 2007. Improved surface temperature prediction for the coming decade from a global climate model. Science 317: 796-799. This paper assessed the accuracy of an improved global surface temperature (Ts) model, Decadal Climate Prediction System (DePreSys) using a set of 10year hindcasts. After proving to be generally reliable, DePreSys predicted further Ts warming in the decade of 2004-2014, with 2014 Ts up 0.30° +/- 0.21°C. For at least half of the years following 2009, Ts was predicted to be the highest on record. Solheim H, Krokene P. 1998. Growth and virulence of mountain pine beetle associated blue-stain fungi, Ophiostoma clavigerum and Ophiostoma montium. Canadian Journal of Botany 76: 561-566. This paper studied two strains of blue-stain fungi, Ophiostoma clavigerum and Ophiostoma montium grown in three different media to determine their relative virulence and to test whether tolerance to low oxygen levels and rapid growth can explain differences in virulence. O. clavigerum and O. montium, are associated with the mountain pine beetle, as they are transported to new host trees through the beetles’ mycangia. Of these two strains, O. clavigerum is considered the more virulent, able to grow in low-oxygen environments, and at temperatures below 25°C. O. montium, while less tolerant of low-oxygen environments, is best able to grow at 25°C, and continues to grow until temperatures exceed 37°C. Somme, L. 1964. Effects of glycerol on cold hardiness in insects. Canadian Journal of Zoology 42: 87-101. This study examined several insect species for the formation of glycerol as protection from cold induced mortality as temperatures decrease. Freezing injury causes mortality in the majority of insects. As protection against cold, insects lower their supercooling point by producing glycerol. Glycerol content follows seasonal patterns, increasing in the fall and continuing until diapauses is broken. Stamp, N. 2003. Out of the quagmire of plant defense hypotheses. The Quarterly Review of Biology 78: 23-55. This paper studied four hypotheses of plant defense: optimal defense, carbonnutrient balance, growth rate, and growth-differentiation balance. The growthdifferentiation balance (GDB) posits that plants balance allocation of resources between differentiation-related processes (including defense through secondary metabolism), and growth-related processes (cell reproduction and elongation). GDB assumes that resource limitation has a greater effect on growth rates than photosynthesis, and growth processes and secondary metabolism compete for photosynthates. When an environment is resource-rich, plant strategy will favor growth-related processes, while in an environment that is resource-limited, plant strategy will favor differentiation-related processes. Stephenson, N.L. 1990. Climatic control of vegetation distribution: the role of the water balance. American Naturalist 135: 649. This paper studies the correlation between the distribution of North American plant formations and two water balance parameters, evapotranspiration and deficit-Traditional analyses of vegetation type and climate look at annual energy and water balances, as opposed to seasonal balances. Examining water and energy balances seasonally, as well as distinguishing between precipitation and actual water supply, results in striking correlation between vegetation distributions and water supply. This correlation allows for more accurate modeling than traditional climate and vegetation models, which relied on such parameters as precipitation and temperature. Stevens, R.E., Flake, Jr., H,W., 1974. A roundheaded pine beetle outbreak in New Mexico: associated stand conditions and impact. USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mt. For. Range Exp. Stn. Res. Note RM-259. 4 pp. This paper examined the sizes and age classes of trees attacked during a recent roundheaded pine beetle outbreak as well as stand conditions and species composition prior to and after the outbreak. A roundheaded beetle outbreak in the Sacramento Mountains of New Mexico caused 10-50% ponderosa pine mortality in effected stands. Stands with more tree species diversity suffered less severe ponderosa pine mortality. Abstract: Mycorrhizae play a key role in ecosystem dynamics, and it is important to understand how environmental stress and climate change affect these symbionts. Several climate models predict that the intercontinental western United States will experience an increase in extreme precipitation events and warming temperatures. In 1996, northern Arizona, USA, experienced a 100-year drought that caused high local mortality of pinyon pine (Pinus edulis), a dominant tree of the southwest. We compared trunk growth, water potentials, and ectomycorrhizal dynamics for surviving trees at three high-mortality sites and adjacent low-mortality sites. Four major patterns emerged. First, surviving trees at sites that suffered high mortality exhibited reduced long-term growth and increased water stress relative to adjacent sites where little or no mortality occurred. Second, surviving trees from high-mortality sites had 50% lower ectomycorrhizal colonization and showed a pronounced shift in fungal community composition relative to low-mortality sites. Third, in support of an intermediatehost plant stress hypothesis, trees that experienced intermediate levels of stress supported two-fold greater ectomycorrhizal colonization than trees at the high or low end of a stress gradient. Fourth, we observed a strong correlation between trunk growth and ectomycorrhizal colonization and validated the resulting regression model with independent data. This relationship suggests that tree rings can be used to reconstruct past and predict future ectomycorrhizal colonization. Overall, our findings suggest that predicted climate changes might be accompanied by both qualitative and quantitative changes in ectomycorrhizal dynamics that could affect ecosystems by altering nutrient cycling, carbon dynamics, and host-plant performance. Swaty, R.L., Deckert, R.J., Whitham, T.G., Gehring, C.A. 2004. Ectomycorrhizal abundance and community composition shifts with drought: Predictions from tree rings. Ecology 85: 1072-1084. This study looked at the relationships between ectomycorrhizal fungi associated with pinyon pine (Pinus edulis), and water stress in forests in northern Arizona. Rates of trunk growth over the fifteen years prior to the study indicated chronic water stress. 1996 witnessed a 100-year record drought, followed in 2002 by the most severe drought in recorded history, causing high ratios of mortality in pinyon pine, and decreasing ectomycorrhizal fungi colonization. Tauber, M.J., Tauber, C., Masaki, S. 1986. Seasonal Adaptations of Insects. Oxford University Press, New York. This book focuses on adaptive seasonality using diapause as the primary mechanism for synchronization of life cycle timing and temperature dependent developmental processes. Seasonal adaptations are tied to growth, reproduction and longevity and influence both interspecific and intraspecific interactions. Diapause allows insects to survive harsh environmental conditions, synchronize resource availability, and mating. Tebaldi, C., Hayhoe, K., Arblaster, J.M., Meehl, G.A. 2006. Going to the extremes. An intercomparison of model-simulated historical and future changes in extreme events. Climatic Change 79: 185-211. This paper used the comparison of historical simulation results to observed trends and the modeling of ten extreme climate indices relating to temperature and precipitation to determine the emergence of several significant trends regarding future extreme climate events. Frost days will decrease, especially in high latitudes of North America, extreme temperature range will decrease, growing season will increase, precipitation over 10mm in a single weather event will increase, dry days will increase, and five-day precipitation will increase. Tran, J.K., Ylioja, T., Billings, R.F., Regniere, J., Ayres M.P. 2007. Impact of minimum winter temperatures on the population dynamics of Dendroctonus frontalis. Ecological Applications 17(3): 882-899. This study examined the cold tolerance to determine if minimum winter temperatures affect population dynamics in the southern pine beetle Dendroctonus frontalis. An air temperature drop to -16°C was likely to result in a 65% reduction in population, while temperatures of -20°C would likely lead to an 80% decline. Prepupae were found to be the most cold tolerant of life stages, though the mechanism for this tolerance is unknown. USDA Forest Service. 1997. Forest Insect and Disease Conditions in the United States 1996. Washington (DC): USDA Forest Service, Forest Health Protection. This report summarizes both native and non-native insect and disease conditions in forested areas, seed orchards, and nurseries in the United States for the year 1996. Bark beetle (and other insect) infestations and weather condition trends are given for the current year and for the years preceding insect activityalong with a summary of activity by pathogen, region, and host. Introduction: This is the 46th annual report prepared by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, of the insect and disease conditions of the Nation’s forests. This report responds to direction in the Cooperative Forestry Assistance Act of 1978, as amended, to conduct surveys and report annually on insect and disease conditions of major national significance in 1996. Insect and disease conditions of local importance are reported in regional and state reports. The report describes the extent and nature of insect and disease-caused damage of national significance in 1996. As in the past, selected insect and disease conditions are highlighted in the front section of the report. Maps are provided for some pests showing affected counties in the East and affected areas in the West. Graphs are provided for some pests showing acreage trends over the last several years. Also provided are tables showing acreages affected for selected pests by state by year for the last five years. USDA Forest Service. 2004. Forest insect and disease conditions in the southwestern region, 2003. R3-04-02. U. S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Southwestern Region. This report used aerial and ground surveys to determine the status of insects and diseases in the forests of Arizona and New Mexico. Millions of acres of forest were surveyed in 2003 in response to the drought-driven pinyon ips (Ips confuses) epidemic. Pinyon pine mortality was found on 1,914,345 acres, a dramatic increase from previous years, with most damage occurring in northern New Mexico and northern and central Arizona. Abstract: Insects and diseases act as both indicators and regulators of the condition (health) of southwestern forests. This has been abundantly clear in recent years, as extreme drought conditions have resulted in the highest level of bark beetle activity seen in several decades, dramatically affecting forest conditions in many parts of the region. This report summarizes the current known status of insects and diseases in the forests of Arizona and New Mexico. Most of the insect information is based on annual aerial detection surveys. Most of the disease information included in this report is based on ground observations and surveys. Bark beetles and defoliating insects cause sudden, visually dramatic damage readily seen from the air, while most pathogens cause gradual, insidious damage that is less easily detected. This year’s report includes results from special surveys flown over much of the woodland type in Arizona and New Mexico, in response to the massive die-off of piñon at many locations. Bark beetles—the primary tree killers in the region—tend to be host specific. Moreover, most conifers (excluding ponderosa pine) are normally attacked and killed by a single species of bark beetle. A group of recent Douglas-fir “faders,” for example, is most often a result of attack by the Douglas-fir bark beetle, Dendroctonus pseudotsugae. In contrast, ponderosa pines are attacked and killed by several different bark beetles. Thus, ground surveys may be needed to confirm the species responsible for ponderosa pine mortality seen from the air. Where ground checking is not conducted, assignment of causal species is based on previous history/experience for a given location. This report also includes a record of technical assistance provided by Arizona and New Mexico zone personnel and brief descriptions (abstracts) of several special activities conducted in 2003. Much of the information for State and private lands was provided through our State Cooperative Forest Health Program. Van Dyke, E.C. 1949. The origin and distribution of the Coleopterous insect fauna of North America. Proceedings of the Sixth Pacific Science Congreso of the Pacific Science Association. Vol. IV. This paper describes the origins and current distribution of the Coleopterous insect fauna in the four main zones in North America. Origins of the North American Coleopterous fauna can be linked to South America through the chain of Central American states. The current distribution of Coleopterous has been determined by various geological, geographical, and climate changes that have occurred since the Tertiary period. Veblen, T.T., Hadley, K.S., Reid, M.S., Rebertus, A.J. 1991. The response of subalpine forests to spruce beetle outbreak in Colorado. Ecology 72(1): 213-231. This paper studied six areas affected by spruce beetle outbreaks to determine the effects on stand composition and dominance, age and size structure, tree growth, and succession. Probability of severe disturbance by spruce beetle is increased by the post-wildfire development of old-growth spruce-fir stands. Beetle outbreaks in turn lead to the release and accelerated growth of previously suppressed fir and spruce, as opposed to new seedling establishment, leading to a shift from spruce-dominated to fir-dominated forests. Veblen, T.T., Hadley, K.S., Nel, E.M., Kitzberger, T., Reid. M., Villalba, R. 1994. Disturbance Regime and Disturbance Interactions in a Rocky Mountain Subalpine Forest. The Journal of Ecology 82(1): 125-135. This study examined how past landscape disturbances impart heterogeneity to the forest and influence the subsequent pattern and consequence of disturbance. Beetle outbreaks are limited in part by the role of other large-scale forest disturbances, such as fire and avalanche. Fire and avalanche disturbances can remove appropriate host trees from a system, preventing epidemic outbreaks of bark beetles for as long as 70 years. Vité, J.P. 1961. The influence of water supply on oleoresin exudation pressure and resistance to bark beetle attack in Pinus ponderosa. Contributions of the Boyce Thompson Institute 21:37–66. This paper addressed the relationship between changes in oleoresin exudation pressure and water stress in Pinus ponderosa and the impact on defense against bark beetle attacks. The success of a bark beetle attack on ponderosa pine is in part dependent upon water stress in the tree. Oleoresin pressure partially determines defense of the tree and thus susceptibility to attack. Increased transpiration due to warm weather, low humidity, and long-term water stress such as drought reduces turgidity of the tree cells, resulting in lower oleoresin pressure and higher susceptibility to beetle attack. Vitousek, P.M., C.M. D’Antonio, L.L. Loope, M. rejmanek, R. Westbrooks. 1997. Introduced species: a significant component of human-caused global change. New Zealand Journal of Ecology 21: 1-16. This study describes the extent of global biological invasion and the interactions between biological invasions and other components of global change. Invasive species are closely related to several human-caused global environmental changes, including increasing concentrations of CO2 and other greenhouse gases. Global environmental climate change in turn results in the loss of biodiversity through extinction as population dynamics shift. Wang, K-Y., Kellomäki, S., Li, C., Zha, T. 2003. Light and water-use efficiencies of pine shoots exposed to elevated carbon dioxide and temperature. Annals of Botany 92: 53-64. This was a three year study to determine the effects of elevated CO2 and temperature on photosynthesis under future climate change scenarios. Light-use efficiency (LUE) and water-use efficiency (WUE) in Scots pine trees varied markedly in response to elevated carbon dioxide (EC), elevated temperature (ET), and a combination of the two (ECT), as well as seasonal time frames (growing versus non-growing seasons). Temperature effects were greatest in trees during non-growing seasons, while EC most affected the trees during growing season, increasing both LUE and WUE. ECT led to increased LUE, while reducing WUE (WUE followed expected pattern of ET only). Ward, N.L., Masters, G.J. 2007. Linking climate change and species invasion: an illustration using insect herbivores. Global Change Biology 13(8): 1605–1615. This paper examines factors such as diet, phenotypic plasticity, life-cycle strategies, and changes in resource/niche availability of invasive insect species that may impact their ability to expand their range as a result of climate change. Phenotypically plastic non-native species not dependent on close phenotypical synchrony are successful invaders. Climate change positively impacts propagule pressure, leading to the formation of a pool of these potential invaders. Fluctuating resources within an ecosystem from disturbances (including climate related events), or an increase in resources due to elevated CO2 levels, will give non-natives opportunities for successful invasion. Reduced competition for resources may also provide the opportunity for invasive species to establish within the system. Waring, G.L., Cobb, N.S. 1992. The impact of plant stress on herbivore population dynamics. In, E. Bernays (ed.), Insect-plant Interactions, Vol. IV. CRC Press, Boca Raton. Pp. 167-226. This chapter examines a number of studies on the effects of water and nutrient defiencies on plant-herbivore relationships related to herbivore responses to drought, plant type and feeding guild, and plant responses such as water potential and leaf nitrogen content. Of the four guilds studied, the woodborers associated with conifers almost all responded positively to severe drought stress. Severe water stress also lowers levels of terpenes and resins utilized for defense and increases nitrogen levels beneficial to insects. Waters, W.E. 1985. The pine-bark beetle ecosystem: A pest management challenge. Pgs. 1–48, In: Waters, W.E., Stark, R.W., Wood, D.L. (eds.), Integrated Pest Management in Pine-Bark Beetle Ecosystems, John Wiley and Sons, New York. This paper discusses the distribution and life history of three species of bark beetle, D. brevicomis, D. ponderosae, and D. frontalis which often determine the successional pattern and character, through size, distribution, and abundance of trees, in pine ecosystems. In regard to lodgepole pine, regardless of whether the beetle attacked minor, dominant, or climax seral type stands, in all cases associated tree species, undergrowth, or regeneration pine replaced the lodgepole, notably changing stand dynamics with change being greatest in climax type stands. Watt, A.D., MacFarlane, A.M. 2002. Will climate change have a different impact on different trophic levels? Phenological development of winter moth Operophtera brumata and its host plants. Ecological Entomology 27 (2): 254–256. This study examines the impact of climate change on the relationship between the winter moth and Sitka spruce and oak two of its major hosts. There is general agreement that climate change will disrupt old patterns of phonological synchrony between insects and their host plants . Climate warming may disrupt synchrony through the absence of winter chilling required for larval emergence. Werner, R.A., Holsten, E.H. 1985. Factors influencing generation times of spruce beetles in Alaska. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 15(2): 438443. This paper studied the environmental factors that influence the rate of development for the spruce beetle Dendroctonus rufipennis and determine a universus multi-voltinism life cycle. A phloem temperature threshold of 16.5°C is needed during instars I and II for univoltinism. South aspect trees are most likely to experience these temperatures. If the minimum temperature is not met, the beetle will continue on a two-year life cycle. Werner, R.A., Hastings, F.L., Holsten, E.H., Jones, A.S. 1986. Carbaryl and lindane protect white spruce from attack by spruce beetles (Coleoptera: Scolytidae) for three growing seasons. Journal of Economic Entomology 79(4): 1121-1124. This study reports on the effectiveness of carbaryl, an alternative environmentally safe insecticide, against spruce beetle attack in south-central Alaska at concentrations of 1 and 2%. Although lab tests had suggested otherwise, field tests found 2% carbaryl effective for protecting trees from infestation for 27 months. The duration of protection may increase in cold or cloudy weather. Werner, R.A., Holsten, E.H., Matsuoka, S.M., Burnside, R.E. 2006. Spruce beetles and forest ecosystems in south-central Alaska: A review of 30 years of research. Forest Ecology and Management 227: 195-206. This study summarizes the research on spruce beetles from the past 30 years including biology and ecology, host susceptibility and resistance, and management strategies. Climatic conditions can trigger increased reproduction and dispersal of bark beetles. In south-central Alaska, rising temperatures from 1980 onward resulted in 1-year life cycles of spruce beetle, contributing to the massive outbreak of beetle infestation in the region, which peaked in 1996. An estimated 30 million trees per year were being killed in the 1990s. Westerling, A.L., Hidalgo, H.G., Cayan, D.R, Swetnam, T.W. 2006. Warming and earlier spring increase western U.S. forest wildfire activity. Science 313: 940-943. This study examines climate change as the primary cause of the recent increase in summer wildfires which have traditionally been attributed to land management practices. Analysis of Northern Rockies climate records with wildfire history shows early spring snowmelt corresponds to increased wildfire activity. Since the mid-1980s spring snowmelt has occurred earlier, summer temperatures have risen, and the fire season has increased by 78 days. Western Forestry Leadership Coalition. 2007. Western Bark Beetle Assessment: A Framework for Cooperative Forest Stewardship. This paper presents the current information on bark beetle outbreaks and provides a map of active forest management areas, management techniques, and identifies groups with the resources to manage bark beetle outbreaks. As a result of bad forest management or lack thereof, western US forests exhibit unhealthily high densities and hazardous fuel buildup. Surface fuel is increased through beetle infestations, which cause large trees to fall, increasing the severity of wildfires at the surface level and severely impacting soil, water, and other public values. Active forest management is needed to reduce susceptibility to epidemic beetle populations, to protect the ecological, economic, and social systems western forests support. Whitney, H.S. 1971. Association of Dendroctonus ponderosae (Coleoptera: Scolytidae) with blue stain fungi and yeasts during brood development in lodgepole pine. The Canadian Entomologist 103: 14951503. This report examines the mutualism between Dendroctonus ponderosae and its assoaciated blue stain fungi and yeasts reared under laboratory conditions. Ten or more broods of mountain pine beetle were examined each year from 19651967, and all broods contained C. montia and at least one yeast. Movement by the female during egg-laying helped in distributing propagules of these microorganisms throughout the gallery although the terminus of some galleries was axenic. Evidence supports the hypothesis of mutualism between D. ponderosae and its associated yeasts and fungi. Williams, D.W., Liebhold, A.M. 1997. Latitudinal shifts in spruce budworm (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) outbreaks and spruce-fir forest distributions with climate change. Acta Phytopathologica et Entomologica Hungarica 32(1-2): 205-215. This paper analyzed maps of historical spruce beetle outbreaks in the eastern United States to develop a model and extrapolate the future distribution of spruce forests under three climate change scenarios. Rising temperatures will result in increased evapotranspiration and metabolic costs in many spruce forests. Increasing pressure from defoiliators which can rapidly expand their range may cause spruce populations existing in lower latitudes and elevations to die out. Wood, D.L. 1972. Selection and colonization of ponderosa pine by bark beetles. Pgs. 101–117, In: van Emden, H.F. (ed.), Insect/plant Relationships, Blackwell Scientific Publications, Oxford. This paper uses the western pine beetle/ponderosa pine complex as a model to study the host selection and colonization processes employed by bark beetles. Bark beetles are a primary species, attacking and killing their hosts to reproduce. After wounding by the initial attackers, yeasts introduced begin tp produce a secondary attractant which results in aggregation and concentrated attack which kills the tree. Wood, D.L. 1982. The role of pheromones, kairomones, and allomones in the host selection and colonization behavior of bark beetles. Annual Review of Entomology 27:411–446. This paper discusses the chemical strategies used by bark beetles such as pheromones, allomones, and kairomones to communicate regarding new host trees. The host selection process has four stages: dispersal, selection, concentration, and establishment. Pheromone production begins with feeding or boring during the concentration phase, though it is not certain wheter feeding is a requirement for initiation of pheromone production in bark beetles. Wood, S.L. 1982. The bark and ambrosia beetles of North and Central America (Coleoptera: Scolytidae): A taxonomic monograph. Great Basin Naturalist Memoirs No. 6, 1359 pp. This volume details the biological activities, economic impacts, geography, and classification of the Scolytidae of North and Central America. Dendroctonus spp. has a wide range and distribution with D. frontalis found along the entire east coast as well as in Arizona and New Mexico. D mexicanus and D. vitei are found as far south as Honduras and Guatemala. 10 of the 17 Dendroctonus spp. are found in Central and South America. Wood, S.L. 1985. Aspectos taxonomicos de los Scolytidae. Pp 170-174. In Proceedings 2nd National Symposium Forest Parasitology Cuernavaca Morelos, Mexico 17-20 February 1982. Secrataria de Recursos Hidraulicos Publicacion Especial No. 46. Mexico City, Mexico. Woodward, F.I., Williams, B.G. 1987. Climate and plant distribution at global and local scales. This paper examines temperature and precipitation as the major mechanisms that determine the abundance and distribution of vegetation. Universal correlations exist between distribution of vegetation and temperature and precipitation. Leaf mass may be predicted by the hydrological budget, as an increase in water will lead to increased leaf growth and thus mass. Annual minimum temperature acts as a limit to vegetation types, though these limits differ with varying population dynamics within individual species. World Metrological Organization. 2006. The state of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere using global observations through 2005. Greenhouse gas bulletin. http://www.wmo.int/ pages/prog/arep/gaw/ghg/ghgbull06_en.html. This bulletin reports on the trends and current levels of the major greenhouse gases (GHGs); carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide as well as chloroflourocarbons (CFCs). Atmospheric GHG concentrations reached new highs in 2005 with CO2 at 379.1 ppm, 35.4% higher than its historic pre-industrial concentration. CO2 is responsible for 62% of total radiative forcing (90% in the past decade), and is the single most important infrared absorbing anthropogenic greenhouse gas. Emissions come primarily from combustion of fossil fuels, and to a lesser extent, deforestation. Yuill, J.S., 1941. Cold hardiness of two species of bark beetles in California forests. Journal of Economic Entomology 34, 702-709. This study focused on the effects of cold temperature on bark beetle mortality determining the low temperature threshold for survival, length of exposure, and the impact of host selection on cold hardiness. The mountain pine beetle and western pine beetle are both susceptible to freezing, but cold hardiness acts differently in each. Overwintering larvae of the western pine beetle are killed by a temperature range of 5 to -7.5°F, and are more cold-hardy in winter season than summer; western pine beetle experience a quick and distinct, though small, shift from summer cold-hardiness to winter cold-hardiness. Zaslovski, V.A. 1988. Insect development: photoperiodic and temperature control. Springer-Verlag, Berlin. This book covers the topic of photoperiodic and temperature control of insect development including the induction and termination of diapause. It was proposed that diapause has two phases, the initial period of quiescence and a subsequent activation phase in which insects are predisposed to the resumption of development when a temperature and/or photoperiodic threshold is reached. Cold-hardiness achieved during diapause is irreversibly lost after only a few days at 25°C in Pterostichus aethiops and Phosphuga atrata. Zausen, G.L., Kolb, T.E., Bailey, J.D., Wagner, M.R. 2005. Long-term impacts of stand management on ponderosa pine physiology and bark beetle abundance in northern Arizona: A replicated landscape study. Forest Ecology and Management 218: 291-305. This was a study examined forest management through prescribed burning and thinning and the impact on oleoresin flow, phloem thickness, radial growth and bark beetle abundance. Ponderosa pine in the mid-elevation forests of northern Arizona were found to have exceptional resistance to bark beetles during years of water stress. Zeneli, G., Krokene, P., Christiansen, E., Krekling, T., Gershenzon, J. 2006. Methyl jasmonate treatment of mature Norway spruce (Picea abies) trees increases the accumulation of terpenoid resin components and protects against infection by Ceratocystis polonica, a bark beetle-associated fungus. Tree Physiology 26:977–988. This study examined the effects of methyl jasmonate on the terpenoid and phenolic defenses and resistance to blue stain fungi in mature Norway spruce. When treated with high dosages of methyl jasmonate, Norway spruce (Picea abies), will massively increase production of traumatic resin ducts. External resin flow will also increase, simulating defenses to mechanical wounding, beetle attack, or fungal inocculation. Zúñiga G., Cisneros R., Hayes J.L., Macias-Samano J.E. 2002. Karyology, geography distribution and origin of the genus Dendroctonus Erichson (Coleoptera: Scolytidae). Annals of the Entomological Society of America 95: 267-275. This study utilized available karyological data to analyze the chromosomal diversity of Dendroctonus populations and chromosomal evidence to examine their hypothesized Mexican origin. There are two hypotheses of origin proposed for the modern genus Dendroctonus that are counter to the preexisting hypothesis of a Mexican origin, both based from evidence derived from genetic evolution and diversification. The first assumes that, as the genus dispersed from northern North America toward Eurasia and southward in North America, karyotypic diversification occurred from centric fusion and fission of an original karyotype between 18 and 22 chromosomes. The second assumes karyotypic diversification occurred as a diversified Dendroctonus followed the north to south movement of its host genus, Pinus. Zvereva, E.L., Kozlov, M.V. 2006. Consequences of simultaneous elevation of carbon dioxide and temperature for plant-herbivore interactions: A metaanalysis. Global Change Biology 12: 27-41. This study employed metaanalyses to determine the effects of elevated CO2 and temperature both together and separately on the response of herbivores and plant characteristics that are important to herbivores. The metaanalyses considered studies reporting Nitrogen, carbon-based secondary compounds (an indicator of plant chemical defense), phenolics and terpenes. Gymnosperm N decreased under combined elevated CO2 and temperature, and in gymnosperm woody tissue, chemical defense as indicated by carbon-based secondary compounds increased, terpenes increased, while phenolics decreased. Interactive elevated CO2 and temperature significantly decreased quality of gymnosperms as food for herbivore insects.