POL 201 (02):
INTRODUCTION TO STATISTICAL METHODS IN POLITICAL SCIENCE
Spring 2012
Time: Tuesday & Thursday 3:50-5:10
Instructor: Lindsey Levitan
Office: SBS N737
Office Hours: Tuesdays, 11-12, Wednesdays, 11-12. For other times make an appointment.
E-mail: Lindsey.Levitan@stonybrook.edu
Course Description (from Course Bulletin)
Elementary statistical methods in empirical political science, focusing on the analysis of
public opinion, survey research designs, sampling, and probability. The course considers the
application of descriptive and inferential statistics to testing hypotheses on various political
issues. May not be taken for credit after AMS 102, ECO 320, PSY 201, or SOC 202.
Prerequisite: Satisfaction of entry skill in mathematics requirement; Advisory
Prerequisite: POL 101 or 102 or 103 or 105
Goals of the Course:
This course focuses on the scientific approach to politics. Students will be introduced to
the logic of scientific inquiry and to basic statistical methods used in the study of government
and politics. Statistics are an efficient and accepted way of communicating ideas; they are a
means of bridging the gap between conjecture and evidence. Contemporary political science
research -- especially public opinion and policy research -- utilizes statistical techniques and,
consequently, a basic understanding of these methods is crucial. The lectures will illustrate how
human reasoning is oftentimes flawed by illogical and otherwise biased processes, which can and
oftentimes do lead to erroneous conclusions. Statistical thinking can be a corrective to many such
biases.
The lectures, homework, exams and assignments are designed to instruct you in the
understanding and proper use of social science methods and promote your critical analysis of
statistical findings. Students will learn to describe data, understand the impact of randomness in
statistical research, conduct statistical tests, and most importantly learn to evaluate the
implications of quantitative results. The coursework will call on you for an interpretation of your
findings, not simply the calculation of a statistics.
Copies of the syllabus and homeworks can be found on Blackboard.
Makeup Policy
Makeup work without penalty will only be accepted with written documentation of an
emergency. The instructor will verify the emergency, and make the final judgment as to whether
it warrants makeup of work.
Unexcused late work will be accepted only for homeworks 1-11. There will be a penalty
of 10% per day (not per class period). These late homeworks may be turned in via e-mail, to the
instructor’s mailbox, or to the instructor in person. Homeworks not turned at the beginning of
class, or via e-mail before the start of class will be considered late.
Textbook and Materials
The required text is now available at the University Book Store and at "Stony Books"
(across from the Stony Brook railroad station). Jack Levin, James Fox & David R. Forde 2009.
Elementary Statistics in Social Research. New York: Longman Publishers. 11th Edition. ISBN:
0205570690
A calculator with built-in functions for squaring and taking square roots will be necessary
to do many of the assignments and for exams, but NO graphing calculators, ipods, or phones.
Grading
The assignment of final grades will be based on multiple criteria: (1) homework
assignments, (2) an in-class exam, (3) a final exam, and (4) participation in departmental
research projects.
1. Homeworks 1-11 are worth 20% of the final grade.
2. Final Paper is worth 15% of the final grade.
3. There will be one in-class examination (worth of 25 % of the final grade).
4. There will also be a comprehensive Final Exam (worth 40 %).
You are encouraged to bring to both exams a simple calculator and an 8 1/2" x 5" index
card on which you may write any notes you believe will help you. No graphing
calculators, ipods, or phones.
5. For extra credit, each student may participate in a set number of research studies
sponsored by the faculty and/or graduate students in the Political Science Department.
Each study is worth one point on your semester grade. One purpose of this research
option is to provide students with first-hand experience with empirical research. The
second purpose is to enable the faculty and graduate students to conduct research that will
advance political science knowledge. The research design, methods, and measures of the
research project will be explained at the end of the study. If for any reason you object to
participating in a research project, you may complete an alternative assignment as
specified by the instructor.
Americans with Disabilities Act:
If you have a physical, psychological, medical or learning disability that may impact your course
work, please contact Disability Support Services, ECC (Educational Communications Center)
Building, room128, (631) 632-6748 or http://studentaffairs.stonybrook.edu/dss/. They will
determine with you what accommodations, if any, are necessary and appropriate. All information
and documentation is confidential.
Students who require assistance during emergency evacuation are encouraged to discuss their
needs with their professors and Disability Support Services. For procedures and information go
to the following website: http://www.sunysb.edu/ehs/fire/disabilities.shtml
Academic Integrity:
Each student must pursue his or her academic goals honestly and be personally accountable for
all submitted work. Representing another person's work as your own is always wrong. Faculty
are required to report any suspected instances of academic dishonesty to the Academic Judiciary.
Faculty in the Health Sciences Center (School of Health Technology & Management, Nursing,
Social Welfare, Dental Medicine) and School of Medicine are required to follow their schoolspecific procedures. For more comprehensive information on academic integrity, including
categories of academic dishonesty, please refer to the academic judiciary website at
http://www.stonybrook.edu/uaa/academicjudiciary/
Critical Incident Management:
Stony Brook University expects students to respect the rights, privileges, and property of other
people. Faculty are required to report to the Office of Judicial Affairs any disruptive behavior
that interrupts their ability to teach, compromises the safety of the learning environment, or
inhibits students' ability to learn. Faculty in the HSC Schools and the School of Medicine are
required to follow their school-specific procedures.
Stony Brook University expects students to maintain standards of personal integrity that are in
harmony with the educational goals of the institution; to observe national, state, and local laws
and University regulations.
COURSE SCHEDULE
Week
Topic
Reading
Recommended
Materials
Week
1
1/24
Behavioral Persuasion
In Political Science
1/26
Measurement: Scales,
Reliability, & Validity
1/31
Measures Of Central
Tendency
2/2
Measures Of
Variability
2/7
Organizing The Data &
Cross-tabulations
2/9
Introduction To
Probability, Part 1
2/14
Introduction To
Probability, Part 2
2/16
The Normal Curve &
The Z Score
2/21
Sampling
2/23
Sampling Distribution
Of Means
2/28
Confidence Intervals
For Proportions
3/1
Confidence Intervals
For The T Distribution
3/6
Review/ Catch-up
Session
3/8 Midterm Exam
“Review of Some
Fundamentals of Math”
Appendix B, pp: 507-511
“Why the Social
Researcher Uses Statistics”
Chapter 1, pp: 1-24
“Measures of Central
Tendency” Chapter 3, pp:
83–99
“Measures of Variability”
Chapter 4, pp: 107-127
Ch 1
Exercises: 3, 4,
7, 8, 10-12, 15
Exercises: All
3/13
The Logic Of Inquiry
3/15
No additional reading
Week
2
Week
3
Week
4
Week
5
Week
6
Week
7
Week
8
Homework
Homework 1
Due Summations
Exercises: All
“Organizing the Data”
Chapter 2, pp: 35-50, 5473
“Probability and the
Normal Curve” Chapter 5,
pp: 137-140
“Probability and the
Normal Curve” Chapter 5,
pp: 140-149
“The Normal Curve As A
Probability Distribution”
Chapter 5, pp; 149–165
“Samples and Populations”
Chapter 6, pp: 172-179
“Sampling Distributions”
Chapter 6, pp: 179–187
Exercises: 1-3,
6-15, 22-34
“Confidence Intervals”
Chapter 6, pp: 187-193,
200-203
“The t Distribution”
Chapter 6, pp: 193-199
Exercises: 5,
23-29
Homework 2
Due – Measures
& Descriptives
Exercises: 1-4,
9, 10
Exercises: 1120
Exercises: 5-8,
21–30
Homework 3
Due Probabilities
Exercise: 1
Exercises: 2-4
Homework 4
Due – Z-scores
Exercises: 6-22
Homework 5
Due – CI
interpretation
“Hypothesis Testing”
Exercises: 1-7,
Week
9
Week
10
Week
11
Week
12
Week
13
Week
14
Week
15
Exam
Week
Hypothesis Testing
3/20
Testing The Difference
Between Two
Proportions
3/22
Testing The Difference
Between Means pt 1
3/27
Testing The Difference
Between Means pt 2
3/29
Relationships And
Line-Fitting
Chapter 7, pp: 213-229
9
“Two Sample Test of
Exercises: 10,
Proportions” Chapter 7, pp: 35-37
241-252
Homework 6
Due - CI
“Testing the Difference
Between Means pt 1”
Chapter 7, pp: 230 -235
“Testing the Difference
Between Means pt 2”
Chapter 7, pp: 235 -241
“Importance of Scatter
plots” Chapter 10, pp 357360
Homework 7
Due – Testing
Proportions
Exercises: 8,
11-27
Exercises: 2834
Ch 11,
Exercises: 616, parts a only
(save)
4/3 – SPRING BREAK
4/5 – SPRING BREAK
4/10
“Regression Analysis”
Least-Squares
Chapter 11, pp: 375-388
Regression
4/12– Class CANCELLED (MPSA Conference)
4/17
“Correlation” Chapter 10,
Correlation Part 1
pp: 345-357
4/19
Correlation Part 2:
Significance & Partial
Correlation
“Partial Correlation”
Chapter 10, pp: 360-366,
383-388
4/24
Inference For Count
Data: Chi Squared Test
4/26
Relating Variables
“Chi Square” Chapter 9,
pp: 306-328
5/1
Non-Survey Methods
of Data Collection
5/3 - Review Session
“Why the Social
Researcher Uses Statistics”
Chapter 1, pp: 1-24
Exercises: 1-4,
6-16 parts b-d,
g only
Homework 8
Due –Testing
Means
Exercises: 1-19
Compute r, not
significance.
(next time)
Exercises: All.
Compute
significance.
Ch 11,
Exercises 19
Exercises: 1-5,
7, 8-25
Homework 9
Due Regression
No additional reading
Exercises: 1, 2,
5, 6, 9, 13, 14,
16, 17
Final Exam - tentatively scheduled for Friday, May 11th 2:15pm -4:45pm
Homework 10
Due Correlation
Final Paper
draft due
(optional)
Homework 11
Due – Chi
Squared
Final Paper due