Calumet County UWEX
206 Court Street
Chilton, WI 53014
920-849-1450
920-989-2700, ext. 450
920-849-1614 (fax)
Website : http://calumet.uwex.edu
UW-Extension FYI : http://fyi.uwex.edu/
Hours:
Monday - Friday
8:00 am - 4:30 pm
County Committee:
Ronald Green
Pat Laughrin
Joe Mueller
Lyle Ott
Duaine Stillman
Staff:
Eric Ronk
Mary Kohrell
Paula Hella
Andrea Braatz
Cindi Goebel
Connie Leonhard
Pierson Kohrell
IN THIS ISSUE:

Agri-Dates

UW Extension Holstein
Steer Finishing Yardage
Cost Survey Results

Focus on Energy - Small
Farm Anaerobic Digester
Program - Request for
Proposals

Calumet County Forage
Council Corn Silage Dry
Down Days

Grant Programs and
Financial Options for
Farmers and Food
Entrepreneurs
 Start them Right … Raise
Them Right, Calf
Management Seminar -
September 9

FSA Informational Meeting
Scheduled - September 3

Combined 2015 Winter
Wheat Performance Trial
Results

Dairy Situation and
Outlook - August 19, 2015
September 2015
Greetings,
Hard to believe it’s almost the end of August! The Calumet County Fair is right around the corner and in the next few weeks corn silage harvest will be in full swing. Determining whole plant moisture prior to harvest is one key management step to ensure high quality corn silage. A whole-plant moisture range of 65-70 percent is ideal for packing, fermentation and dairy cattle performance but the range varies depending on your type of storage. To aid in this decision, the Calumet County Forage Council will be hosting Corn Silage
Dry Down Days. Please take a look at the attached flyer for more details.
Most farmers in Calumet County should be happy with their wheat yields this year! We have had some of the best yields in the state and low incident rates for fusarium head blight (FHB or scab). If you are interested, the results from the 2015 Wisconsin winter wheat trials are attached. The Kolbe Seed Farms location in Chilton had the highest yield of the four test locations, which was
112 bu/ac.
Dairy producers have until September 30 to sign up for the dairy margin protection program if they want coverage in 2016. If you haven’t done so already, please contact the Farm Service Agency (849-1449) to set up an appointment. If there are any dairy farms that have management team meetings or are interested in starting them please feel free to contact me. I know everyone is busy but sometimes taking a few minutes to sit down with the vet, nutritionist, and other key members in the farm can go a long way.
In an effort to further promote our county UW-Extension office and programs,
I invite you to follow us on Facebook and Twitter. Please spread the word!

Facebook: Calumet County UW-Extension

Twitter: CalumetUWEX
Take care,
Eric Ronk
Agriculture Agent
UWEX
– Calumet County
THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN – UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
The University of Wisconsin Extension provides affirmative action and equal opportunity in education, programming and employment for all qualified persons regardless of race, color, gender/sex, creed, disability, religion, national origin, ancestry, age, sexual orientation, pregnancy, marital or parental, arrest or conviction record or veteran status. Requests for reasonable accommodations for disabilities or limitations should be made prior to the date of the program or activity for which it is needed. Please do so as early as possible prior to the program or activity so that proper arrangements can be made. Requests are kept confidential.
-1-

Agri-Dates
August 2015
31 Forage Council Corn Silage Dry Down Day, 11:00-2:00 pm, Martin and Tom Biese Farm, New
Holstein
September 2015
3
4-7
Farm Service Agency Informational Meeting, 1:30 pm, Courthouse, Room #025 (lower level)
Calumet County Fair, Chilton
6
8
9
11
15
22
First Annual Calumet County Dairy Futurity, 7:30 pm, Harder/Goeldi Building, Fairgrounds
Forage Council Corn Silage Dry Down Day, 11:00-2:00 pm, Country Visions, Chilton
Start Them Right … Raise Them Right Calf Management Seminar, 9:30 am, Black Creek
Farm Management Update for Ag Professionals, 9:30 am, Liberty Hall, Kimberly
Forage Council Corn Silage Dry Down Day, 11:00-2:00 pm, Schneider Farms, Hilbert
Forage Council Corn Silage Dry Down Day, 11:00-2:00 pm, Greg Bohman Farm, Brillion
29-Oct 3 World Dairy Expo, Madison
October 2015
27 Calumet County Farm Bureau Annual Banquet
UW Extension Holstein Steer Finishing Yardage Cost Survey Results
The objective of this survey was to gather information on yardage costs of production for Wisconsin dairy steer feedlot enterprises. Information was obtained from feedlot operations feeding at least 50% dairy steers. The data collected was producer’s annual costs for finishing dairy steers from at least 300 pounds or reported higher placement weights though finishing. This data was then used to calculate costs on a daily basis.
This Holstein steer yardage survey focused on overhead, labor/management, bedding, and direct expenses generally associated with yardage costs. It did not include feed, animal, and veterinarian/ pharmaceutical related costs. This project was conducted by UW Extension and UW-River Falls and was partially funded with USDA Risk Management Agency grant funds. Data was gathered by UW Extension Agriculture Agents from cooperating producers in 2012.
The complete report is available on the Calumet County UW-Extension agriculture website page at: http://calumet.uwex.edu/agriculture/ .
Focus on Energy - Small Farm Anaerobic Digester Program - Request for
Proposals
The Small Farm Anaerobic Digester Program is offering incentives for cost-effective anaerobic digester systems to be installed and operational at small to mid-sized farms. These funds will be available through a competitive request for proposals (RFP) process, similar to that of the Renewable Energy Competitive Incentive Program (RECIP). The RFP application and guidelines are available below:

Small Farm Anaerobic Digester Program - Request for Proposals https://focusonenergy.com/sites/default/files/2015%20Small%20Mid-Digester%20%28FINAL%29.pdf
-2-

N2818 State Road 57, New Holstein
W2920 Faro Springs Rd, Hilbert
W2468 Country Road E, Chilton
N8819 County County Road PP, Brillion
Mike Melso, NEW Farm Technologies, will have a portable analyzer for forages (AgriNIR) for samples while the traditional koster ovens will also be available for moisture analysis. On
September 8, Riesterer & Schnell will have their John Deere HarvestLab and Constituent
Sensing available for samples.
The Forage Council will be offering burgers and soda/water at each location over the noon hour time frame. There is a suggested donation of $3.00 per sample to cover drying costs and noon lunch.
Sampling Guidelines:

Collect 3-5 stalks from a representative area within the field (cut at chopper height)

Be prepared to provide your name, address, phone number, hybrid planted, relative maturity, and planting date

Once samples are cut do not delay bringing them to the site so that moisture is not lost
Sponsored by:
-3-

Grant Programs and Financial Options For Farmers & Food Entrepreneurs
Are you Looking for Ways to Develop Your Innovative Agricultural Business?
Join us for a workshop designed to help you identify which grants or other financial options might be right for you. This workshop will discuss ways to plan your project and strengthen your application. Specific grant programs to be covered include:

USDA ’s Value Added Producer Grant (VAPG) program provides planning and working capital funds to farmers and farmer-based enterprises to develop and implement value-added ventures.
 USDA’s Sustainable Agriculture Research and
Education (SARE) grant program funds research, marketing and demonstration projects.
 USDA’s Specialty Crop Block Grant (SCBG) program funds endeavors that enhance the competitiveness of Wisconsin Specialty Crops
 Wisconsin DATCP’s Buy Local, Buy Wisconsin
(BLBW) grant program funds projects that increase the demand for and supply of locally produced foods in Wisconsin.
Dates and Locations
Thursday, September 17th – Western WI - Hixton
Club 95, 101 Sand Prairie Road N., Hixton, WI 54635
To register contact: Trisha Wagner at trisha.wagner@ces.uwex.edu or
Jackson County UW-Extension at (715) 284-4257
Friday, September 18th – Northern WI - Merrill
Lincoln County Service Center room 255, 801 N. Sales
Street, Merrill, WI 54452
To register contact: Dan Marzu at daniel.marzu@ces.uwex.edu or (715) 539-1072
Wednesday, September 23rd – Southeastern WI –
West Bend
Wellspring Conference Center Lower Level, 4382
Hickory Rd, West Bend, WI 53090
To register contact: Mary Ann Ihm at wellspring@hnet.net or (262) 675 -6755
Wednesday, September 30th – Southwestern WI -
Platteville
Uw-Platteville Markee Pioneer Student Center,
University North Room, University Plaza 1, Platteville,
WI 53818
To register contact: Amy Seeboth at seebotha@uwplatt.edu or (608) 342-7244
Registration fee of $15 will cover the cost of lunch and materials.
If you are interested in attending but need translation assistance, Please inquire with the local registration contact at each location.
Successfully Applying to Agricultural Grant
Programs Workshop Agenda
This workshop is designed to give farmers and agricultural entrepreneurs information, tools, and handson training to strengthen grant and loan applications.
This workshop will help you create a competitive application and get the financial resources you need to fuel your business.
9:00 am Registration
9:30 am Welcome and Introductions
Participants are invited to give a brief introduction to their projects
Andrew Bernhardt, UW-Extension/SARE
10:00 am Designing a sound project, identifying funding sources and grant-writing basics
Margaret Krome, Michael Fields Agricultural
Institute
12:00 noon Lunch
12:30 pm Lunch Program – Perspective from a grant recipient: “How I applied for and used a grant in my agriculture business”
1:15 pm Grant Programs Highlight Panel
 WI DATCP Buy Local, Buy
Wisconsin – Teresa Engel
 USDA Specialty Crop Block Grant –
Juli Spek
 USDA Value Added Producer Grant
– Mike Daniels
 USDA SARE Farmer and Rancher
Grant – Andrew Bernhardt
2:00 pm Hands-on Grant Proposal Evaluation &
Development
 Review and evaluate an actual proposal in groups.
Andrew Bernhardt, UW-
Extension/SARE
3:00 pm Additional Financial Options Panel
 Farm Service Agency – Farm Loans
& Micro-loan Program
 Natural Resources Conservation
Service – Cost Share Programs
 Farm Credit System Bank – Loan
Program
3:45 pm Networking and one-on-one Q&A with presenters
4:00 pm Adjourn
Partners:
Michael Fields Agricultural Institute • USDA, Rural
Development • USDA, SARE • UW-Cooperative
Extension • WI Department of Agriculture, Trade and
Consumer Protection
-4-

-5-

Persons with disabilities who require accommodations to attend or participate in this meeting/event/function should contact Tom Schneider at 920-683-5119 or Federal Relay Service at 1-800-877-8339 by August 31, 2015
USDA is an equal opportunity employer and provider
-6-

Combined 2015 Winter Wheat Performance Trial Results
Brand
AgriMAXX
AgriMAXX
Entry
413
438
2015
4-test average
Yield
(bu/a)
Test wt.
(lb/bu)
* 104 59.2
102 56.6
Arlington Chilton Fond du Lac Sharon
2014
3-test average
1
Yield Test wt.
Yield Test wt.
(lb/bu)
Yield Test wt.
(lb/bu)
Yield Test wt.
(lb/bu) (bu/a) (bu/a) (bu/a) (bu/a)
110
(lb/bu)
61.1 98 58.9 87 57.0 *
104 57.7 111 56.4 98 57.2 * 93 55.4
Yield (bu/a)
103
100
AgriMAXX 444 --
AgriMAXX
AgriMAXX
AgriMAXX
Diener
446
447
Exp 1555
D491W
* 104 59.3 * 115
103 59.7
61.1 115 59.9 103 59.2 84 57.0
109 61.0 114 60.8 102 59.7 86 57.2
* 104 58.4 * 112
96 58.8 95
* 110 59.9 * 118
59.8 * 121 59.4 97 58.8 85 55.9
59.4 106 59.5 92 59.4 89 57.1
61.1 * 124 62.1 * 104 59.3 * 91 56.9 *
--
95
--
104
Diener
Diener
Diener
DuPont Pioneer
DuPont Pioneer
DuPont Pioneer
DuPont Pioneer
DuPont Pioneer
Dyna-Gro
Dyna-Gro
Dyna-Gro
Equity Seed
Equity Seed
FS Seed
FS Seed
FS Seed
FS Seed
FS Seed
Jung
Jung
Jung
Jung
Kratz Farms
Kratz Farms
Kratz Farms
Kratz Farms
L&M Brand
L&M Brand
L-Brand / Ag Pro
L-Brand / Ag Pro
L-Brand / Ag Pro
L-Brand / Ag Pro
L-Brand / Ag Pro
L-Brand / Ag Pro
D492W
D496W
D512W
25R25
25R34
25R40
25R46
25R50
9223
9522
9552
Butler
Guardian
FS 602
FS 615
FS 622
FS 624
FS 625
5855
5888
5930
Exp 1099
KF 15144
KF 15188
KF 15241
KF 15314
L&M 2123
L&M 7511
L-171
L-203
L-264
L-304
L-321
L-443
L-Brand / Van Treeck's L-241
L-Brand / Welter L-334
Legacy
Legacy
Legacy
Legacy
Legacy
LW 1155
LW 1335
LW 1370
LW 1480
LW 1485
* 107 59.4 * 120
99 58.7
101 57.0
108
61.5
59.5
116 60.9
107 59.7
101 57.9
86 57.9
90 57.3
* 91 57.7
103 58.5 110 55.9 101 57.0 89 56.9
102 57.3
* 105 58.7
102 58.9 109 57.6 * 106 57.5 * 93 55.3
106 59.3 * 120 61.0 102 57.3 90 57.0
* 104 59.8
100 60.1
102 59.3
99 56.6
107 60.2 * 119 61.5 98 60.3 * 91 57.4 *
107 61.3 113 61.5 91 59.3 88 58.3 *
108 60.3 116 61.2 100 60.2 82 55.8
101 57.3 106 55.0 98 57.8 90 56.6 *
* 110 59.0 * 113 60.0 117 59.6
* 104 59.9 108
* 107 59.2 * 117
61.1 117 60.5
61.5 * 124 60.7
* 112 59.7 * 96 57.1
* 104 60.6 85 57.5
* 106 59.9 81 55.0
102 59.1
* 106 59.8
103 59.0
97 60.7
108 60.2 * 120 58.9 94 59.7 86 57.8
110 60.5 113 60.7 * 104 60.5 * 94 57.6
102 59.5 114 60.1 * 105 58.9 89 57.4
106 62.5 104 60.9 90 61.6 85 58.1
103 60.5
97 56.2
96 57.9
104 61.1 111 60.9 * 104 60.9 * 92 59.1
102 56.8 106 55.9 94 56.2 84 55.8
101 58.1 104 57.9 92 59.0 86 57.0
* 110 59.7 * 116
* 105 59.7
59.9 * 125 62.0 * 107 60.6 90 56.4
107 60.6 * 123 60.0 102 60.9 88 57.6
101 57.9 103
103 59.2 * 112
96 58.8 101 59.8 104 59.1 91 58.9 87 57.6
* 107 60.8 * 115 61.3 112 61.4 * 105 61.0 * 95 59.5
99 58.7
59.2 * 121 59.5 94 58.0 85 55.0
60.5 111 59.9 94 57.9 * 92 58.2
* 106 59.6
108 60.8 103 58.7 101 58.5 86 57.0
108 61.1 * 120 61.2 * 105 58.8 90 57.4
102 59.1
95 61.3
* 106 61.2
98 60.7
100 61.2
107 60.3 112 59.7 102 59.6 88 56.9
101 61.5 103 62.3 89 61.7 84 59.6
109 62.1 116 61.9 101 61.4 * 98 59.4
105 61.7 107 61.3 86 60.3 * 91 59.6
104 62.4 112 62.1 93 61.7 89 58.8
101 59.0
96 59.7
96 60.3
103 59.1 105 60.3 100 59.7 * 95 57.2
102 60.6 102 60.5 93 59.4 85 58.4
101 59.7 105 60.8 108 60.4 99 59.1 * 92 58.6
102 60.1 * 113 61.4 110 59.4 101 61.0 84 58.9
* 104 59.0 107 60.0 114 59.7 * 104 60.0 90 56.6
101 61.1 102 59.8 93 61.2 87 59.2
102 59.8 107
* 106 61.2 * 117
* 109 60.0 * 116
61.5 113 60.5
63.1 111 62.0 101 60.6 * 93 59.0 *
60.8 * 120 60.7
102 60.5
* 108 60.2
85 57.0
* 91 58.3 *
101
101
103
108
--
103
--
--
--
93
100
--
100
98
96
95
--
100
100
98
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
99
--
97
--
97
--
--
102
--
102
102
96
106
105
MSU
MSU
PiP
F0036R
F1026R
715
94 56.6
100 59.7
* 106 60.7
97 57.5 104 57.6 96 57.4 80 54.1
99 59.9 116 61.3 97 60.3 86 57.5
111 62.0 * 119 61.4 * 104 60.4 * 91 58.8
--
--
--
-7-

Brand Entry
2015
4-test average
Yield
(bu/a)
Test wt.
(lb/bu)
Arlington
Yield
(bu/a)
Test wt.
Chilton
Yield
(bu/a)
Fond du Lac
Test wt.
(lb/bu)
Yield
(bu/a)
Test wt.
Sharon
Yield
(bu/a)
Test wt.
(lb/bu)
2014
3-test average
1
Yield (bu/a)
PiP
PiP
PiP
PiP
PiP
PiP
PiP
PiP
PiP
PiP
PiP
PiP
PiP
PiP
PiP
PiP
PiP
PiP
PiP
PiP
Pro Seed Genetics
Pro Seed Genetics
Pro Seed Genetics
Pro Seed Genetics
Pro Seed Genetics
718
719
720
721
723
724
725
729
733
734
735
736
737
741
760
762
765
766
777
792
PRO 200
PRO 240
PRO 260
PRO 320A
PRO 410
* 107 61.7 * 116
* 106 60.3 * 112
* 104 59.1 * 115
103 57.1
60.7 * 122 59.7 91 59.2 87 57.1
105 58.6 112 56.1 103 58.0 * 93 55.9 *
102 59.3
61.7 117 63.0 * 106 62.6 88 59.7 u) )
61.0 112 60.8 * 105 60.8 * 95 58.7
103 59.3
104 60.5 114 61.1 * 105 58.9
107 60.5 * 120 60.7 100 59.6
85 56.7
84 56.6
103 61.6 105
102 59.8 * 113
101 58.5 106
* 105 60.8 * 115
* 110 59.7 * 119
* 104 58.5 103
* 104 60.9 * 119
62.9 112 62.3 100 61.5 * 95 59.7
61.6 114 59.4 90 60.0
59.3 106 57.6
89 58.3
94 59.5 * 97 57.8
62.7 117 60.7
60.6 * 125 61.0
97 60.2 89 59.5 *
101 58.9 * 93 58.1 *
58.7 * 118 59.7 * 106 58.6
62.6 104 60.6
89 57.0 *
101 61.1 * 92 59.4 *
* 107 59.9
97 57.0
100 58.2
101 59.7
99 57.1
98 59.0
103 60.3
93 60.6
110 60.4 * 118 61.2 102 60.2 * 95 57.9 *
110 59.7 110 56.3 90 57.2 75 54.9 *
110 58.8 113 58.6 98 59.0
106 61.3 113 60.2 97 60.9
81 56.5
86 56.5
107 58.9 106 57.2 96 56.4
98 58.6 103 59.4
85 56.0 *
97 59.5 * 94 58.5
111 61.2 112 61.1 98 59.6
97 61.2 102 60.9 91 61.1
90 59.3 *
81 59.3
95 59.2 92
101 57.5 * 118
* 104 59.3 * 116
100 59.7 * 112
58.7 109 61.1 91 60.1
60.0 105 56.2 90 57.3
87 57.2
87 56.3
60.7 112 60.4 96 59.3 * 91 57.0 *
61.8 106 60.3 97 59.3 85 57.4
Pro Seed Genetics
Pro Seed Genetics
Pro Seed Genetics
Pro Seed Genetics
Pro Seed Genetics
Public
Public
Public
Public
Public
PRO Ex 310
PRO Ex 370
PRO Ex 380
PRO Ex 420
PRO Ex 430
Erie
Hopewell
Kaskaskia
Otsego
Red Devil Brand
95 57.8
103 61.7
103
101 57.4 * 115
59.0 100 57.3 93 58.5 82 56.6
59.0 114 57.3 82 57.1 * 91 56.0
102 61.4 * 112
94 60.5
62.6 * 122 62.8 85 60.7
88 60.2 105 61.0 95 62.6
88 59.5
86 58.5
92 58.6
111 62.1 109 62.0 * 104 62.4
96 60.4 109 57.9 88 59.0
88 60.4
77 56.9
89 58.5 94 59.6 95 59.1 86 59.2
93 60.4 100 61.9 101 60.9 89 59.6
79 56.3
81 59.4
86 56.4 83 56.8 84 55.0 91 57.9 84 56.1
* 104 60.0 110 61.0 110 60.1 99 60.8 * 97 58.4
Public
Public
Public
Syngenta
Syngenta
Syngenta
Syngenta
Van Treeck's
Red Dragon Brand
Rocket
Sunburst
SY 007
SY 474
SY 483
SY 547
XL 334
95 58.2 98
103 57.5 * 117
58.8 105 58.5 92 59.3 84 56.3
59.3 108 57.5 94 58.8 * 91 54.7
99 61.9 109 63.2 110 62.6 93 62.0 85 59.8
* 105 59.8 111 61.3 110 60.1 103 60.1 * 95 57.9
* 104 59.5 111 60.6 * 120 60.7 93 59.9
* 104 57.9 106 58.2 * 120 59.4 * 104 58.5
89 57.0
88 55.7 *
* 109 60.3 * 116 62.1 * 124 60.5 * 105 60.6 90 58.3
99 60.3 102 61.3 106 61.2 92 58.9 * 93 59.4
VCIA / VA Tech Hilliard 103 59.7 * 113 59.9 115 60.0 99 59.8
VCIA / VA Tech VA 11W-106 * 104 60.4 111 62.1 117 62.5 99 59.9
Mean 101 59.3 107 60.4 112 59.9 98 59.6
LSD(.10) 6 1.0 8 1.2
* Yield is not significantly different (0.10 level) than that of the highest yielding cultivar
1
Three test sites included Arlington, Chilton, and Fond du Lac
7 1.6 8 1.8
84 59.0
87 57.2
88 57.5
7 1.1
--
--
--
104
--
--
--
101
102
103
109
105
106
106
103
--
--
104
--
103
93
98
100
103
100
95
100
100
--
--
--
94
100
94
99
98
--
95
--
101
105
--
101
--
--
100
6
-8-

Dairy Situation and Outlook, August 19, 2015
By Bob Cropp, Professor Emeritus
University of Wisconsin Cooperative Extension
University of Wisconsin-Madison
Milk prices will hold for another month and in fact prices may be a little higher than July. The July Class III price they were a year ago. Cheese, butter and whey prices are at a six year low, down 25% to 45% from last year. was $16.33 and may be near $16.40 for August. However, weaker nonfat dry milk prices may lower the August Class
IV price to around $12.85 compared to $13.15 in July.
Restaurant and food service demand remains strong for cheese and butter supporting prices despite much weaker exports. June cheese exports were 22% lower than a year ago and butter exports were 75% lower. But, cheese
According the U.S. dairy Export Council without large imports from the two largest importers China and Russia, it will take a greater and lengthier contraction in world milk production to clear the existing overhanging supply of dairy products. In addition, with increased supply from
Europe and Oceania U.S. exporters face very aggressive competition for markets. Also higher U.S. prices are prices will average a little higher in August than July. On the CME cheddar barrels averaged $1.6313 per pound for
July, were a high of $1.7325 early August and are now
$1.66. The 40-pound cheddar block price averaged
$1.6659 per pound for July, were a high of $1.7625 early
August and are now $1.69. Butter prices will also average higher in August than July. Butter averaged $1.9056 per pound for July and are now $2.27. The last time butter was above $2.00 per pound was back in June. But, lower nonfat dry milk prices earlier in the month more than offset higher butter prices lowering the Class IV price. Nonfat dry milk averaged $0.7622 per pound for July, was a low of
$0.69 early August but has increased to $0.7675. Since about half of nonfat dry milk production is exported nonfat dry milk prices are heavily depended upon exports. Nonfat dry exports in June were 23% lower than a year ago. attracting more imports. Imports were equivalent to 3.8% of U.S. milk production in June, the highest of the year.
So where milk prices are headed over the remainder of this year and into 2016 will depend heavily upon the level of milk production. Compared to a year ago, June milk production was up 0.9% and July up 1.2%. For the yearto-date production is up 1.6%. The July increase was due to 0.6% more cows than a year ago and 0.6% more milk per cow. Cow numbers after declining 3,000 head in June increased 1,000 head in July. Milk production in the West remains soft with Arizona and Idaho’s production up just
2.4% and 0.7% respectively and production down 3.3% for
California, 4.2% for New Mexico and 1.2% for Texas. The declines in milk production were due to less milk per cow with per cow production down 3.3% for California and
4.2% for New Mexico. California also had 1,000 fewer cows than a year ago .Milk production remains strong in the Northeast and Upper Midwest. In the Northeast production was up 3.2% in New York, 2.3% in
Pennsylvania and 6.3% in Michigan, with more cows and
The question is how long will cheese and butter prices hold at these levels? Three factors will support prices.
One is declining milk production and milk composition seasonally during the hot summer months. Second, buyers of butter and cheese will be placing orders and building inventory for the strong holiday season. Third, schools will be opening which increases fluid (beverage) milk sales. But, dairy product production has been higher than a year ago and stocks are building. June dairy product production show butter production 1.7% higher than a year ago, nonfat dry milk production 10.6% higher, cheddar cheese production 4.3% higher and total cheese production 1.5% higher. June 30 th stocks show butter
27.8% higher than a year ago and 10.8% higher than the
5-year average for this date. Natural cheese stocks were
4.5% higher and 4.6% higher than the 5-year average for higher production per cow for each state except
Pennsylvania where the increase was all due to more milk per cow. In the Upper Midwest production was up 3.6% in
Iowa, 4.2% in Minnesota, 12.3% in South Dakota and
5.3% in Wisconsin. Increases were due to more cows and higher milk per cow for each state except for Minnesota where the increase was all due to more milk per cow.
If milk production continues to increase by more than
1.0%, which is expected, dairy product prices and milk prices will likely show some weakness, especially once butter and cheese buyers fill their orders for the holiday season. Prices could hold for another month or two before showing some softness. However, the futures market remains rather optimistic. Class III futures actually shows some strengthening for next few months with an October this date. Total cheese stocks were 8.1% higher and 5.9% higher than the 5-year average for this date. Manufacture stocks of nonfat dry milk were not only 15.2% higher than a year ago, but also a record high.
Dairy exports will not offer much support for higher dairy product prices or milk prices until perhaps the second half of 2016. June exports declined for the 4 th straight month.
On a total solids basis exports were equivalent to 14.6% of total milk production compared to 15.4% last year.
World prices are well below U.S. prices making export challenging. According to U.S. Dairy Export Council world market prices for skim milk powder and whole milk powder are the lowest in more than a decade, about half of what peaking at $16.90 and declining to $16.25 for December.
Class III futures are lower in 2016 with $15’s for the
January through June period and then in the $16’s. With the recent increases in both butter and nonfat dry milk prices Class IV futures have rallied with September at
$14.71 and October at $15.09 and ending in December at
$14.77 and staying in the $14’s through April of next year.
The probability that final prices end up higher than this is less than ending up a little lower.
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