Transportation Research Board
2014 Annual Meeting, Workshop
The Next 50 Years in Travel Analysis
Workshop Title: The Next 50 years in Travel Analysis: What We Don’t Know but Need to Know
Name and Code of Sponsoring Committee: LEAD Committee: Travel Behavior & Values (ADB10),
Eric Miller Chair.
Name and Code of Co-Sponsoring Committee(s): Travel Demand Forecasting (ADB 40), and
possibly Information Communications and Technology (ADB 20), Transportation Network
Modeling (ADB 30), and Transportation Planning Applications (ADB 50).
Person Responsible for Organizing Workshop (Name, e-mail address, and telephone #):
David T. Hartgen, Emeritus Member ADB10, david@hartgengroup.net, 704-785-7366 cell, office 704405-4278. and Co-Chair, Kostas Goulias, Professor, UC- Santa Barbara, Kostasgoulias@gmail.com
Timing: Half-Day, Sunday Morning (9:00 a.m. – Noon), January 12, 2014
Estimated number of attendees: 200-400.
Special room/logistical needs? NO
Workshop Description
The past 50 years witnessed significant advances in travel analysis, modeling and forecasting (choice
based models, activity models, dynamic assignment, land use integration, etc) Yet the basic paradigm
(4-step UTPS) is unchanged even though policy topics have greatly expanded. Many fundamental
questions (e.g. structure of household travel, land use and investment impacts, impacts of internet/GPS,
and self-driving cars) are poorly understood and the impacts of other policies (e.g., car or bike sharing)
cannot be easily evaluated. Recent reviews of model accuracy document high uncertainty in model
estimates, and highlight technical and organizational weaknesses that likely cannot be fixed without new
basic paradigms.
Why is this important? The purpose of travel analysis is to improve transportation investment decisions
by improving the accuracy and relevance of forecasting and analysis tools. A 50-year old paradigm is
not relevant for many current issues. Travel analysis should therefore update its paradigms to provide
the best possible professional input for transportation decisions.
Paradigm change is a difficult undertaking. Other disciplines (biology, physics, etc, even highway
research) have developed research plans (e.g. SHRP II) to improve basic understanding of their fields,
but travel analysis targets short term research rather than long-term goals.
This Workshop would discuss how travel analysis can substantially advance over the next 50 years. It is
viewed as similar to workshops for SHRP studies in the 1980s that resulted in targeted ‘hard side’
highway research. The Workshop is NOT intended to produce new paradigms for travel analysis (that is
too difficult a task) but rather to outline a PLAN for developing such a paradigm in coordinated and
methodical steps.
The Workshop would address four basic questions:
1. What don’t we know? Fundamental questions regarding the structure of travel, household
structure and reactions, long-term feedbacks between travel and land use, activity/role/land use
evolution, etc.
2. What can’t we know? Highly variable/unpredictable events, e.g. technological ‘breakthroughs’,
demographic shifts, recessions/booms, energy discoveries, some household decisions, routing
and incident locations, climate change, travel propensities. Getting ‘hubris’ out and ‘humility’ into
modeling?
3. What we need to know? Why did some models ‘fail’ and other ‘succeed’ (input, structure,
politics/funding, knowledge)? Major future policy issues? Information needed to improve
understanding and improve forecasting accuracy and relevance? What’s needed, for what’s
likely? Topic ‘uncertainty’?
4. How to get there? Defining and reporting ‘success’? ‘Reference class’ forecasting? ‘Back-cast’
accuracy studies? Tracking forecasting accuracy? Monitoring household travel over time? How
to determine and prioritize research needs? How to organize research agendas? A goal-focused
“Strategic Travel Research Program (STRP)” Who should do what? Getting/pooling/targeting
research funds? NSF/other fund coordination? Regulatory constraints? International or privatesector support/cooperation? Education? Getting results to practice? Deleting ‘dead ends’?
Ensuring broad participation without intellectual scleroses? Organizing one or more
conferences?
Audience participation will be encouraged thorough handouts, comment periods, and ‘votes’ for
various options.
Workshop advertising will be developed through the participating committees, and a broad range of
outreach efforts. Names of speakers and panels have been suggested. A full program will be
developed by October 1.
A research agenda this ambitious might take 20-50 years to complete, and probably would need
several additional organizing events/conferences to begin. The first step is to look in the mirror,
recognize the current situation, and get talking. TRB’s Travel Analysis Methods Section is the ideal
organization to do this, and a Sunday Workshop in 2014 would be a good venue to begin.