River Murray system
annual operating plan
End October 2015 update
2015–16 Water Year
1 June 2015–31 May 2016
River Murray system annual operating plan End October 2015 update
Published by the Murray‒Darling Basin Authority
Postal Address: GPO Box 1801, Canberra ACT 2601
Telephone: (02) 6279 0100 international + 61 2 6279 0100
Facsimile: (02) 6248 8053 international + 61 2 6248 8053
Email: engagement@mdba.gov.au
Internet: http://www.mdba.gov.au
MDBA publication no.: 22/15
ISBN (online): 978-1-925221-42-8
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Title: River Murray system annual operating plan End October 2015 update
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Cover image: Lake Mulwala during the scheduled drawdown in winter 2015. Photograph by Peter McLean.
Copied with the permission of Yarrawonga Flight Training.
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To the extent permitted by law, the Murray‒Darling Basin Authority and the Commonwealth excludes all
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Page 1
River Murray system annual operating plan End October 2015 update
Introduction
The River Murray system annual operating plan (operating plan) for the 2015–16 water year
(1 June 2015 to 31 May 2016) was released in August 2015. The operating plan provided the
context and descriptions of how the River Murray system may have been operated under a range
of assumed scenarios.
This document provides an update of scenarios, as at end October 2015, and should be used in
conjunction with the original plan. The scenarios have been prepared by the Murray–Darling
Basin Authority (MDBA) with input from the Australian Government and the states of New South
Wales, Victoria and South Australia through MDBA's Water Liaison Working Group. This
operating plan may be updated again later this water year if significant changes are required. The
states will also receive regular updates through the Water Liaison Working Group as the season
progresses.
Current conditions
River Murray system inflows in the first five months of this water year have remained well below
average in each month (Table 1, Figure 1). Murray system inflows (excluding Darling and Snowy
inflows, environmental inflows from tributaries and inter-valley trade) in this period have totalled
approximately 2,070 GL (91% Annual Exceedance Probability or AEP) compared with the longterm average for this period of 6,500 GL and median of 5,310 GL. These low inflows are the
result of rainfall which has been average to very much below average in the Snowy Mountains
and Victorian Alps (Figure 2), a relative lack of large rainfall events and high temperatures in
September and October.
Table 1: Monthly inflows (GL) and annual exceedance probabilities (AEP) to the River Murray system from
June to October 2015.
Month
Hume unregulated
Murray system inflow* Murray system inflow*
inflow
(excluding Darling)
(including Darling)
June
82 GL (72% AEP)
237 GL (81% AEP)
249 GL (80% AEP)
July
153 GL (64% AEP)
429 GL (80% AEP)
448 GL (81% AEP)
August
243 GL (66% AEP)
670 GL (78% AEP)
685 GL (79% AEP)
September 167 GL (89% AEP)
486 GL (90% AEP)
496 GL (90% AEP)
October
83 GL (95% AEP)
245 GL (95% AEP)
250 GL (95% AEP)
*excluding Snowy inflows, environmental inflows from tributaries and inter-valley trade.
Page 2
River Murray system annual operating plan End October 2015 update
80,000
Flow (ML/day)
60,000
2014-15
Long term
average
40,000
20,000
2015-16
0
Figure 1: Murray system daily inflows (excluding Snowy, Darling, inter-valley trade and environmental inflows).
Figure 2: Monthly rainfall deciles in the Murray–Darling Basin for June to October 2015
(Source: adapted from Bureau of Meteorology).
Page 3
River Murray system annual operating plan End October 2015 update
Update on operations
Maintenance and construction
Lake Mulwala was raised back to its normal operating range of 124.6–124.9 m AHD in late July
following a lowering for structural works and management of the aquatic weed Egeria densa.
The weir pool at Mildura was returned to full supply level in early August after major maintenance
and repairs to the trestles and trestleway. The lock was re-opened in September after
refurbishment.
Mullaroo regulator was completed in July 2015, enabling the regulation of flows into Mullaroo
Creek and the lower Lindsay River.
Refurbishment of Lock 15 at Euston is scheduled to commence in late January 2016 following
the Australia Day weekend. The lock will be closed to boat traffic for approximately four months.
Further information will be provided in a media release when dates are confirmed.
Weir pool variations
Variations in the levels of weir pools at Euston and at Locks 7, 8 and 9 are continuing as
planned. Over summer, the weir pool at Euston will be close to full supply level, with lowering
below full supply level expected to commence in March. At Locks 7, 8, and 9, the weir pool levels
are planned to be drawn below their full supply level over summer and are expected to return to
normal full supply level by May 2016. Further information is provided in the media release
available on the MDBA website.
In South Australia, the weir pool at Lock 2 has been raised up to 50 cm above its normal pool
level in October and at Lock 5 the weir pool has been raised up to 45 cm. These weir pool levels
will be returned to their full supply level by December. Further information is available on the SA
Department of Environment, Water and Natural Resources website.
In addition to the variations in weir pool levels outlined above, the weir pools at Yarrawonga,
Torrumbarry, Euston, and Mildura may need to be drawn down for periods of up to two weeks to
meet any peak water demands if extremely hot, dry conditions occur.
Consumptive demands
River Murray System diversions from 1 June 2015 to 31 October 2015 (not including Hume
environmental water releases) for NSW and Victoria have totalled approximately 590 GL. This is
significantly less than June to October 2014, when diversions totalled approximately 900 GL.
The reduced diversions to date in 2015-16 reflect the relatively low water allocations arising from
poor inflows so far this water year. In NSW, Murray high security and general security allocations
as of early November 2015 were 97% and 13% respectively, compared with 97% and 39% at the
same time last year. In Victoria, Murray high reliability and low reliability allocations as of early
November 2015 were 85% and 0% respectively, compared with 100% and 0% at the same time
last year.
South Australian high security allocations as of early November 2015 are 100%, which is the
same as this time last year.
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River Murray system annual operating plan End October 2015 update
Environmental water
Approximately 430 GL of environmental water has been released from Hume Reservoir from late
June until late October. The bulk of this water was carried over from the previous season for
such a watering. The water was used to boost flows to better reflect natural flow regimes and,
since late July, has contributed to overbank flows into the Barmah-Millewa Forest. These
overbank flows are planned to recede during early November, although some watering of
targeted wetlands is planned to continue to support bird breeding events.
Environmental water reaching the River Murray from the Goulburn system for the period from
June 2015 to end May 2016 is now expected to be 230–330 GL. This volume includes water
already delivered as higher base flows since early June and a spring “fresh” (a short period of
within-channel higher flow) in October. Higher base flows in the Goulburn River are expected to
continue for the remainder of the water year, using both environmental water and inter-valley
transfers, with the possibility of a fresh in late February–March 2016.
Small scale environmental watering events have been undertaken throughout spring in
Gunbower Creek, Gunbower Forest, Hattah Lakes and Lake Wallawalla. Each of these events is
due for completion by mid-December.
No environmental water is currently expected to reach the River Murray from the Murrumbidgee
River in 2015–16.
South Australia operations
There has been no unregulated flow into South Australia during the water year to date.
Approximately 548 GL of environmental water has been delivered to South Australia from June to
October 2015, in addition to full entitlement flows. South Australia currently has 103 GL of
deferred entitlement flow in MDBA controlled storages. This water has been stored under South
Australia’s storage right (Schedule G of the Water Act 2007). Plans are in place to increase this
volume over the coming months in response to the ongoing dry conditions. This deferred water
will help to meet critical human water needs and private carry-over in future years.
The Chowilla floodplain works have been used again this year to provide higher flows through
Chowilla Creek, via Slaneys and Pipeclay Creeks. This further testing of the Chowilla works is
expected to be complete by mid-December.
Releases through the barrages at the Lower Lakes are continuing as at 31 October. However,
releases may be limited in the coming months to help safeguard Lower Lake levels in 2015–16
should dry conditions persist.
Operating scenarios as of end October 2015
The actual conditions that occur during the remainder of the 2015–16 water year will inevitably be
different to the scenarios in this updated plan, and therefore river operations will also be different
to any projection presented. Nevertheless, these scenarios should provide a useful indication of
potential river operations for the remainder of 2015–16 water year.
River Murray System inflows to date in 2015–16 have been tracking close to a 95% AEP
scenario. In the original operating plan, the figures presented an extreme dry scenario
Page 5
River Murray system annual operating plan End October 2015 update
(approximately 100% AEP) and a dry scenario (approximately 90% AEP). There is a significant
difference in inflows between these two scenarios, and therefore MDBA has included a ‘very dry’
scenario (approximately 95% AEP) in this end October update of the operating plan. The very
wet scenario included in the original operating plan has not been updated as Bureau of
Meteorology streamflow outlooks indicate that such high inflows would be unlikely over the
remainder of the season. If the current dry conditions persist, flows and storage volumes are
most likely to follow the trends of the dry and very dry scenarios.
This updated operating plan assumes there will be modest environmental flows (80–150 GL)
across the South Australian border from November onwards in most scenarios. Environmental
water delivery to South Australia in summer and autumn 2016 may be increased if additional
water is made available by environmental water holders and the delivery is operationally feasible.
This situation is depicted in the dry scenario, which assumes 280 GL environmental water
delivery across the South Australian border from November onwards.
At Lake Victoria, a storage volume of less than 350 GL may be targeted at the end of May 2016
in the drier scenarios, subject to approval by Ministerial Council. This measure aims to increase
the chance of improved water availability in 2016–17 if very dry conditions continue.
Low releases from the Menindee Lakes have been assumed in all the dry scenarios of this
revision. Since 8 September 2014, the flow at Weir 32 has been held below the normal minimum
flow by Water NSW to conserve water in the lakes. Consequently, inflow to the River Murray from
the lower Darling River has been assumed to be negligible in these dry scenarios. In the near
average scenario, moderate inflows into the Menindee Lakes have been assumed and
consequently the release at Weir 32 could be returned to the minimum flow by NSW DPI Water
and Water NSW. In the wet scenario, the volumes in the Menindee Lakes may be sufficient to
enable the MDBA to call on water as part of normal River Murray system operations.
This update contains two sets of figures for each structure/site.
•
•
The first set contains the same information as forecast in the original operating plan
and illustrates how river flows (as monthly averages) and storage levels (at the end of
each month) have tracked against the original outlooks, for example Figure 3.
The second set shows an updated operating plan as of 31 October 2015 and
illustrates what the river flow and storage levels are now forecast to be over the
remainder of the 2015–16 water year, for example Figure 4.
It should be noted that environmental and consumptive water use assumptions vary significantly
between each of the scenarios. These assumptions influence operations of the system in each of
the different scenarios.
Barmah Choke trade
Standard policy prohibits the net trade of allocations from above the Barmah Choke to
downstream to protect the delivery of downstream water entitlements. Without the trade
restriction, a potentially large volume of trade water, in addition to the normal downstream
demand, is likely to exceed the limited channel capacity through the Barmah Choke.
The default policy therefore means that trade downstream of the Choke may only occur when
there has been sufficient matching trade in the opposite direction i.e. no net trade downstream.
Page 6
River Murray system annual operating plan End October 2015 update
MDBA is responsible for keeping track of this balance of trade and at the time of preparation of
this update there was significant capacity for trade to occur from upstream to downstream.
MDBA has only relaxed this trade restriction in the past when there was a low risk of affecting the
delivery of water to meet the normal downstream demand. MDBA regularly considers the system
outlook and undertakes assessments described in the Annual Operating Plan to see if there is
scope to relax the trade restriction.
Each scenario considers the key drivers of water delivery through the choke including:




current storage levels
potential future inflows, demands and system losses
the availability of water downstream of the Choke including in Menindee Lakes and from
IVT calls from the Murrumbidgee and Goulburn Valleys
end of season reserve requirements in Lake Victoria.
This Annual Operating Plan update shows that for a wide range of scenarios over the remainder
of this season, channel capacity through the Barmah Choke (around 10,000 ML/day downstream
of Yarrawonga Weir) would be reached, or nearly reached, for prolonged periods to deliver
required flows. The MDBA and the WLWG will continue to monitor conditions which could
influence decisions around the Choke trade restriction.
Further information on the trade rule and the latest information on the current capacity to trade
across the choke can be found on the MDBA website. Interestingly, since the normal trade
restriction was reinstated in October 2014, these has been net trade upstream, which has meant
that over the past 13 months, with the exception of the first week of restriction, limited
downstream trade has been available at all times.
Page 7
River Murray system annual operating plan End October 2015 update
Extreme dry scenario
Dry scenario
Moderate scenario
Near average scenario
Wet scenario
Very wet scenario
Nominal Generation Limit (432 m)
Capacity
Last season
2015-16
4000
3500
Storage (GL)
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
INDICATIVE FORECAST ONLY: SUBJECT TO
REVISION AS CONDITIONS CHANGE
0
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
End of Month
Figure 3: Original Dartmouth Reservoir storage outlook.
Extreme dry scenario
Very dry scenario
Dry scenario
Moderate scenario
Near average scenario
Wet scenario
Nominal Generation Limit (432 m)
Capacity
Last season
2015-16
4000
3500
Storage (GL)
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
INDICATIVE FORECAST ONLY: SUBJECT TO
REVISION AS CONDITIONS CHANGE
0
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
End of Month
Figure 4: End October Dartmouth Reservoir storage outlook.
Page 8
River Murray system annual operating plan End October 2015 update
Extreme dry scenario
Dry scenario
Moderate scenario
Near average scenario
Wet scenario
Very wet scenario
Last season
2015-16
300
Release (GL/month)
250
200
150
100
50
0
Jun-15
INDICATIVE FORECAST ONLY: SUBJECT TO
REVISION AS CONDITIONS CHANGE
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Month
Figure 5: Original Dartmouth Reservoir release outlook.
Extreme dry scenario
Very dry scenario
Dry scenario
Moderate scenario
Near average scenario
Wet scenario
Last season
2015-16
300
Release (GL/month)
250
200
150
100
50
0
Jun-15
INDICATIVE FORECAST ONLY: SUBJECT TO
REVISION AS CONDITIONS CHANGE
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Month
Figure 6: End October Dartmouth Reservoir release outlook.
Page 9
River Murray system annual operating plan End October 2015 update
Extreme dry scenario
Dry scenario
Moderate scenario
Near average scenario
Very wet scenario
Capacity (3005 GL)
Last season
2015-16
Wet scenario
3500
3000
Storage (GL)
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
INDICATIVE FORECAST ONLY: SUBJECT TO
REVISION AS CONDITIONS CHANGE
0
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
End of Month
Figure 7: Original Hume Reservoir storage outlook.
Extreme dry scenario
Very dry scenario
Dry scenario
Moderate scenario
Wet scenario
Capacity (3005 GL)
Last season
2015-16
Near average scenario
3500
3000
Storage (GL)
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
INDICATIVE FORECAST ONLY: SUBJECT TO
REVISION AS CONDITIONS CHANGE
0
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
End of Month
Figure 8: End October Hume Reservoir storage outlook.
Page 10
River Murray system annual operating plan End October 2015 update
Extreme dry scenario
Dry scenario
Moderate scenario
Near average scenario
Wet scenario
Very wet scenario
Channel Capacity (25,000 ML/day)
Last season
2015-16
35000
Average Daily Flow for month (ML/day)
INDICATIVE FORECAST ONLY: SUBJECT TO
REVISION AS CONDITIONS CHANGE
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Month
Figure 9: Original Hume Reservoir release outlook — flow at Doctors Point.
Extreme dry scenario
Very dry scenario
Dry scenario
Moderate scenario
Near average scenario
Wet scenario
Channel Capacity (25,000 ML/day)
Last season
2015-16
35000
Average Daily Flow for month (ML/day)
INDICATIVE FORECAST ONLY: SUBJECT TO
REVISION AS CONDITIONS CHANGE
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Month
Figure 10: End October Hume Reservoir release outlook — flow at Doctors Point.
Page 11
River Murray system annual operating plan End October 2015 update
Extreme dry scenario
Dry scenario
Moderate scenario
Near average scenario
Wet scenario
Very wet scenario
Channel Capacity (10 000 ML/day)
Last season
2015-16
Average Daily Flow for month (ML/day)
40000
INDICATIVE FORECAST ONLY: SUBJECT TO
REVISION AS CONDITIONS CHANGE
30000
20000
10000
0
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Month
Figure 11: Original Yarrawonga Weir release outlook.
Extreme dry scenario
Very dry scenario
Dry scenario
Moderate scenario
Near average scenario
Wet scenario
Channel Capacity (10 000 ML/day)
Last season
2015-16
Average Daily Flow for month (ML/day)
40000
INDICATIVE FORECAST ONLY: SUBJECT TO
REVISION AS CONDITIONS CHANGE
30000
20000
10000
0
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Month
Figure 12: End October Yarrawonga Weir release outlook.
Page 12
River Murray system annual operating plan End October 2015 update
Extreme dry scenario
Dry scenario
Moderate scenario
Near average scenario
Wet scenario
Very wet scenario
Last season
2015-16
Average Daily Flow for month (ML/day)
70000
INDICATIVE FORECAST ONLY: SUBJECT TO
REVISION AS CONDITIONS CHANGE
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Month
Figure 13: Original Euston Weir flow outlook.
Extreme dry scenario
Very dry scenario
Dry scenario
Moderate scenario
Near average scenario
Wet scenario
Last season
2015-16
40000
Average Daily Flow for month (ML/day)
INDICATIVE FORECAST ONLY: SUBJECT TO
REVISION AS CONDITIONS CHANGE
30000
20000
10000
0
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Month
Figure 14: End October Euston Weir flow outlook (note: vertical scale has been altered).
Page 13
River Murray system annual operating plan End October 2015 update
Extreme dry scenario
Dry scenario
Moderate scenario
Near average scenario
Wet scenario
Very wet scenario
LVOS maximum levels
Capacity
2014/15
Actual
700
27m
600
26m
Storage (GL)
500
25m
400
24m
300
23m
200
22m
100
21m
INDICATIVE FORECAST ONLY: SUBJECT TO
REVISION AS CONDITIONS CHANGE
0
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
End of Month
Figure 15: Original Lake Victoria storage outlook.
Extreme dry scenario
Very dry scenario
Dry scenario
Moderate scenario
Near average scenario
Wet scenario
LVOS maximum levels
Capacity
2014/15
Actual
700
27m
600
26m
Storage (GL)
500
25m
400
24m
300
23m
200
22m
100
21m
INDICATIVE FORECAST ONLY: SUBJECT TO
REVISION AS CONDITIONS CHANGE
0
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
End of Month
Figure 16: End October Lake Victoria storage outlook.
Page 14
River Murray system annual operating plan End October 2015 update
2000
Extreme dry scenario
Dry scenario
Moderate scenario
Near average scenario
Wet scenario
Very wet scenario
Nominal Capacity
NSW ML Reserve
Last Season
2015-16
INDICATIVE FORECAST ONLY: SUBJECT TO
REVISION AS CONDITIONS CHANGE
Storage (GL)
1500
1000
480 GL
500
0
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
End of Month
Figure 17: Original Menindee Lakes storage outlook.
2000
Extreme dry scenario
Very dry scenario
Dry scenario
Moderate scenario
Near average scenario
Wet scenario
Nominal Capacity
NSW ML Reserve
Last Season
2015-16
INDICATIVE FORECAST ONLY: SUBJECT TO
REVISION AS CONDITIONS CHANGE
Storage (GL)
1500
1000
480 GL
500
0
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
End of Month
Figure 18: End October Menindee Lakes storage outlook.
Page 15
River Murray system annual operating plan End October 2015 update
Extreme dry scenario
Dry scenario
Moderate scenario
Near average scenario
Very wet scenario
Nominal Capacity
Last Season
2015-16
Wet scenario
25000
Average daily flow for month (ML/day)
INDICATIVE FORECAST ONLY: SUBJECT TO
REVISION AS CONDITIONS CHANGE
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Month
Figure 19: Original Menindee Lakes release outlook.
Extreme dry scenario
Very dry scenario
Dry scenario
Moderate scenario
Wet scenario
Nominal Capacity
Last Season
2015-16
Near average scenario
25000
Average daily flow for month (ML/day)
INDICATIVE FORECAST ONLY: SUBJECT TO
REVISION AS CONDITIONS CHANGE
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Month
Figure 20: End October Menindee Lakes release outlook.
Page 16
River Murray system annual operating plan End October 2015 update
Entitlement
Extreme dry scenario
Dry scenario
Moderate scenario
Wet scenario
Very wet scenario
Last Season
2015-16
Near average scenario
Average Daily Flow for month (ML/day)
80000
INDICATIVE FORECAST ONLY: SUBJECT TO
REVISION AS CONDITIONS CHANGE
60000
40000
20000
0
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Month
Figure 21: Original flow to South Australia outlook.
Entitlement
Extreme dry scenario
Very dry scenario
Dry scenario
Near average scenario
Wet scenario
Last Season
2015-16
Moderate scenario
Average Daily Flow for month (ML/day)
20000
INDICATIVE FORECAST ONLY: SUBJECT TO
REVISION AS CONDITIONS CHANGE
15000
10000
5000
0
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Month
Figure 22: End October flow to South Australia outlook (note: vertical scale has been altered, and the dry
scenario assumes delivery of more environmental water).
Page 17