2015 Sham Stakes Contenders (1 mile) 1 Rare Candy (5: 1-1-0) 6-1 Jockey: Joseph Talamo (same as last start) Race Record: Last win was his maiden in mid-July at Del Mar, but it was at 1 mile on the turf (pp. 8/11) and he won by over 2 lengths. However, he’s raced 3 times since then and come in 4th each time. He came kind of close to showing in Santa Anita’s FrontRunner Stakes, 1 and a sixteenth on the dirt, in November at pp. 6/8- was just half a length behind 3rd place finisher Hollywood Don. Also was a neck away from showing in last start, in Del Mar’s Cecil B. DeMille Stakes (pp. 9/12), which is also 1 mile on the turf (worth noting that Dressed in Hermes came first in this race- with 6 extra pounds on the other horses!- and Collected came second). It seems like, at least in his last start, he ultimately ended up on the inside before making his drive, so perhaps being positioned in the most inside post position could work in his favor. However, the fact that he’s finished behind some of the contenders here previously make me think that the most he could pull off here would be show. But I am optimistic about his transition from one mile turf races to one mile on the dirt. Pedigree: Twirling Candy x Bold Pegasus, by Fusaichi Pegasus. Twirling Candy is a son of Candy Ride, a successful, undefeated Argentinian miler who can trace his lineage back to Mr. Prospector through Fappiano; in Rare Candy’s pedigree, Fappiano is in the 5th generation. Fusaichi Pegasus is also a son of Mr. Prospector, with ties to Danzig through his dam. However, that’s only one of two Mr. Prospector/Danzig damsire pairings in Rare Candy’s pedigree- Twirling Candy’s dam (House of Danzing) is a granddaughter of Mr. Prospector through her sire, and a granddaughter of Danzig through her dam. Overall, this pedigree is really heavy on Mr. Prospector for my complete liking, but the added Danzig is interesting. Additionally, Seattle Slew is present through Twirling Candy’s damsire in Rare Candy’s 5th generation. Conformation: Can’t find images. 2 Dressed in Hermes (5: 2-0-1) 7-2 SCRATCHED Jockey: Mike Smith (same as last start) Race Record: So far, Dressed in Hermes has two wins under his girth so to speak, both of them one mile on the turf. His first win was at Santa Anita, in the Zuma Beach Stakes (pp. 9/10), where he was sort of a deep closer, starting and cruising in 7th or 6th place, finally over taking the others after coming wide down the stretch. Zuma was actually his maiden- he had raced two other times previously, both at Del Mar, first at 6 furlongs on the dirt (4th place) and then at another turf one miler (3rd place). In the second race, he really rallied for that show, but just couldn’t match the winning and placing horses. A few weeks after the Zuma Beach Stakes and one month before the Cecil B. DeMille Stakes, Dressed in Hermes also raced in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Turf, also one mile on the turf (pp. 1/14) where he came in 5th place. The issue here seems to be that he changed up his running style. DiH definitely seems to do best as a deep closer, but here he was on the far inside and pushed to stalk the leaders, staying in 2nd and 3rd place before trying to make a move. Instead of being able to conserve his energy for one fast burst at the stretch, he tired out trying to keep up with the leaders. What does worry me a bit is the post position. Today he will also be on the inside. Mike Smith will probably try and angle him so that he can run a little wide toward the back of the pack. The biggest question is whether he’ll have any difficulty getting into position. If he doesn’t, I think that he is a good bet for win, and definitely for place. Pedigree: Hat Trick x Elusive Fashion, by Elusive Quality. Hat Trick is a wildly successful Japanese sprinter/miler, and a son of Sunday Silence, who won the Kentucky Derby, Preakness, and came 2nd in the Belmont, then won the Breeder’s Cup Classic. Elusive Quality, DiH’s damsire, is a son of Gone West, the progeny of Mr. Prospector and Secretariat daughter Secrettame. I like this pedigree. There isn’t really any inbreeding in the first 5 generations, and I like that Secretariat is on the dam’s side with Sunday Silence on his sire’s side. Conformation: Only pictures are racing action shots. Really great cannon to forearm ratio, short yet strong looking pasterns with a decent slope. Balanced, muscular, deep girth. Hind legs look well conformed and clean. Back looks short. Neck could be a touch longer, but looks strong. Overall, good. 3 Let’s Meet in Rio (3: 1-0-0) 6-1 Jockey: Kent Desormeaux (same as last start) Race Record: At first glance, Let’s Meet in Rio’s record is unimpressive. He’s had just three starts, all of them attempts at breaking his maiden, and was just successful about a month ago at Los Alamitos. However, there are a few things important to note with his previous races. Firstly, the first two were much shorter: 6 furlongs (Santa Anita, pp. 4/12) and 6.5 furlongs (Del Mar, pp. 3/7), respectively. The race at Los Alamitos was one mile on the dirt. Secondly, he had a bad start his first two times out, starting slowly in his first race and stumbling badly at the start of the second race. His win came at pp. 2/7, and he stalked off the pace toward the back before making his move going into the stretch, coming wide and beating 2nd place Laoban by 1.5 lengths. I like that he already has a win not only at this distance but also on this surface: dirt. It takes out the question of whether he’ll transition well to the track. Also worth noting: in the Los Alamitos race he was carrying 122 pounds and wasn’t on Lasix. Today, he’ll be carrying 118 pounds and will be on Lasix for the first time. Definitely placing a show bet on this one. Pedigree: Flatter x Rio Carnival, by Storm Cat. This is a star-studded pedigree if there ever was one. In 5 generations, Let’s Meet in Rio has Mr. Prospector, Secretariat, and Northern Dancer once on either side. Flatter is, of course, a son of AP Indy, so we get Seattle Slew and Secretariat there. Flatter’s damsire is Mr. Prospector, so he’s there as well. Storm Cat is a grandson of both Northern Dancer and Secretariat. Additionally, Rio Carnival’s dam, Zenda, can trace her sire line back to Gone West, meaning that Secretariat is also in Let’s Meet in Rio’s 6th generation. Although there is more inbreeding here than I typically like to see, it’s even on both sides and the horses themselves are good ones. Conformation: No clear pictures. 4 Found Money (7: 3-2-0) 6-1 Jockey: Mario Gutierrez (same as last start) Race Record: Like Let’s Meet in Rio, Found Money’s last race was also a one miler on the dirt at Los Alamitos (pp. 9/10) that he won- by a little over a length. However, it was hardly his first win. Found Money appears to be following a similar path as I’ll Have Another, who was also owned by Reddam Racing and trained by Doug O’Neill, and also started racing relatively early in his two year old career. However, Found Money’s success has not been as linear as I’ll Have Another’s was. He’s won 3 of his 7 total starts, but two of his wins were in his first two races. A plus: both of these races were at Santa Anita. His maiden, which he broke on the first try, was 4.5 furlongs (pp. 5/7) and he breezed his way through it, setting a new track record in the process. His second race was the 5.5 furlong Santa Anita Juvenile Stakes (pp. 4/6), in which he was also a clear frontrunner. Found Money’s next three starts were all at Del Mar. First was the 6.5 furlong Best Pal Stakes (pp. 1/6), where he took the early lead but then tired out before the stretch. Then came the I’m Smokin and Golden State Juvenile Stakes, both of which he placed in. I’m Smokin (pp. 5/6) is just 6 furlongs on the dirt, and here Gutierrez seems to have tried to hold Found Money back into the second place position as more of a presser, only for Found Money to never be able to quite catch up to first place winner Smokey Image. Found Money again came second to Smokey Image in the 7 furlong Golden State Juvenile Stakes (pp. 9/10), briefly taking the lead before Smokey Image came from third to overtake him before the finish, ultimately leading Found Money by just ¾ of a length. Just a few weeks after the Golden State Juvenile, Found Money ran in the Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes at Delta Downs, which is 1 1/16th miles- quite a jump from the 7 furlongs that Found Money was working himself up to. However, running from pp. 7/10, Found Money managed to come in 4th by a neck, although several lengths behind the leaders. Although the distance seemed to be a little bit much for him, his running style changed once again to more of a closing one. The race footnotes note that he rallied late but was responding well to the pressure from Gutierrez, so he may be one to keep an eye on for the Derby still, since it seems like with more work he could possibly handle a mile and a quarter decently. The King Glorious Stakes at Los Alamitos was about 3 weeks after the Delta Downs Jackpot. Here, Found Money’s running style seems to be a steadily improving stalker- he starts off toward the back of the pack but stealthily moves up on the inside, weaving a little where necessary until he is barely in first place at the stretch. Race footnotes do indicate that he needed “strong urging” to pull away. At this point, I’m confident that Found Money can handle the distance and the track, but I do worry about the more inside post position today being an issue for him. A show bet seems called for, however. Pedigree: Square Eddie x Chanel My Belle, by General Meeting. Square Eddie is a son of Smart Strike, who himself is a son of Mr. Prospector. Smart Strike is mostly known for being Mr. Prospector’s leading “all-weather sire.” General Meeting’s name doesn’t allude to it at all, but he is in fact a son of Seattle Slew and a daughter of Alydar, Alydars Promise. Alydar was a successful graded stakes winner who is somewhat embarrassingly known for being the only horse to finish second in all three Triple Crown races. Regardless, he was a good racer and a good sire. Through her dam’s line, Chanel My Belle (unraced) can trace her way back to some Irish stock. I love that Seattle Slew is right there on the dam’s side, but what I don’t like is the amount of Raise a Native/Mr. Prospector. Mr. Prospector appears once on either side, and thus Raise a Native is there one generation back; Raise a Native also appears on the dam’s side as Alydar’s sire as well. Even though there are just two occurrences of RaN in the 5 generations of Found Money’s pedigree, it’s clear that there is more of him further back. Conformation: Only pictures are racing action shots. SO muscular! Cannon/forearm ratio looks good, but pasterns look very short. Heels of hooves slightly collapsed. Deep girth, large shoulder but hindquarters look equally large. Back seems short and strong. Not an area I usually comment on, but his gaskins look good too. It’s hard to tell from the action shot, but his legs don’t seem so long in comparison to his body in the way that many 3 year olds tend to look. He’s muscular to the point that, if I saw him just “naked” (as in no tack or anything) in a field, I might think he was a quarter horse. 5 Semper Fortis (5: 2-1-0) 8-1 Jockey: Kieren Fallon (different from last start) Race Record: Semper Fortis is a stablemate of Found Money- also owned by Reddam and trained by O’Neill. His last race was a one mile dirt allowance race (pp. 5/5) at Los Alamitos, which he won under Mario Gutierrez. He stayed relatively close to the pack, but toward the rear throughout most of the race, making a drive after the stretch to go technically from last to first, ultimately winning by half a length. Just a few weeks before his race at Los Alamitos, Semper Fortis broke his maiden on his 4th try at Del Mar; this race was just 5 furlongs (pp. 2/7), though he won by 2 lengths. His first maiden race, in August and also at Del Mar, was 5.5 furlongs (pp. 8/9) and he came in second after having led the pack briefly. Then he raced in a 6.5 furlong race (pp. 4/12) at Del Mar, coming in 5th. His 3rd race was at Santa Anita, another attempt at breaking his maiden, this time at one mile on the dirt (pp. 6/8). In that race, he finished 6th, never really making a serious bid before weakening. With over a month in between Santa Anita and his return to Del Mar where he broke his maiden in late November, I imagine he was being trained heavily, which allowed him to bounce back after the win at Del Mar to win the allowance race at the beginning of December at Los Alamitos. Ultimately, his record just doesn’t seem as strong as Found Money’s. I might consider him as a wild card bet depending on how I feel about the other contenders. Pedigree: Distorted Humor x Rebridled Dreams, by Unbridleds Song. Not a huge fan of this pedigree. Distorted Humor is a grandson of Mr. Prospector through his sire, Forty Niner. Distorted Humor’s dam, Danzig’s Beauty is naturally a daughter of Danzig. Unbridleds Song is a son of Unbridled, who can also trace his direct sire line back to Mr. Prospector through Fappiano. Rebridled Dream’s damsire, Corridor Key, is also a son of Danzig. As far as the big names go in this pedigree, that’s basically it. None of the great power horses like Secretariat or Seattle Slew, although I guess they wouldn’t be super necessary to implicate success in milers. Basically, nothing terrible but nothing really impressive either. Conformation: Found a picture taken at a front quarter angle from the Keeneland 2014 September yearling sale. Good long neck, shoulder and hindquarter seem balanced in terms of size and muscling. Cannon bone a little long for my liking. Good hooves. Fairly deep girth. A little bench kneed on right front; left front looks clean and straight. Short coupling. Sweet face. 6 Laoban (2: 0-1-0) 15-1 Jockey: Tyler Baze (same as last start) Race Record: Laoban still hasn’t broken his maiden, but he did come second to Let’s Meet in Rio about a month ago at Los Alamitos in another dirt miler (pp. 4/7). He had early speed but then was overtaken by the first place finisher to be beaten by a length and a half; he was over 4 lengths ahead of the 3rd place finisher, Uninvited. A few weeks before Los Alamitos, Laoban had his first start in a maiden race at Del Mar that was also a dirt miler (pp. 1/9), which he finished 7th in. He apparently broke slowly then settled far off the pace and never really rallied or made a bid. Sorryaboutnothing came 2nd in that race. So it seems like he’s definitely improved, and I think that maybe there will be a compromise in his running style where he doesn’t bring up the pack but isn’t a frontrunner (as he was at Los Alamitos) either. Maybe more of a presser/stalker. On one hand, he was within striking distance of Let’s Meet in Rio; on the other hand, two of today’s contenders have already beat him at this distance. I can’t find any video of the Los Alamitos race, which is unfortunate because what I really want to see is how much of a battle it was, and whether Laoban might have a “grudge” against Let’s Meet in Rio such that he could overcome him and the competition today. Without that, even a show bet seems like it might be a waste. Pedigree: Uncle Mo x Chattertown, by Speightstown. At first glance, this pedigree is nothing spectacular, but when you look further back in it, it gets a little interesting. Uncle Mo is a son of Indian Charlie, who himself can trace his sireline back to Caro. Uncle Mo’s damsire, Arch, can trace his sire line back to Danzig. But it’s Chattertown’s pedigree that really shines to me: Speightstown is a product of Gone West and a Storm Cat daughter, Silken Cat. So there’s Secretariat in Laoban’s 5th and 6th generation from Speightstown. But then, Secretariat pops up in his 5th generation again due to Chattertown’s damsire, Lost Soldier, who is a son of Danzig and a lesser-known Secretariat daughter, Lady Winborne. Despite Laoban’s performance thus far, I plan to keep an eye on him if his performance in this race is halfway decent. This is the type of pedigree that could get him places in the graded stakes world. There’s obviously a reason that his trainer started him out at a mile as opposed to shorter distances, and I sense it’s because this is a horse that can handle the distance. Obviously today might not end up being a big indicator of that, so I guess we’ll have to wait and see if he gets entered into any longer races on the road to the Derby. Conformation: No pictures found. This horse is a mystery for now! 7 I’malreadythere (6: 1-1-3) 5-1 Jockey: Rafael Bejarano (different from last start) Race Record: Last raced in the 1 1/16th mile Los Alamitos Futurity (pp. 7/7) a few days before Christmas and came in 3rd after he had started off stalking in 3rd on the outside, fell back a little, and then began a closing drive that was too late to beat first and second finishers Mor Spirit and Toews on Ice, respectively. Still, it was a solid effort, especially at the start- coming from the outside definitely seems to work for him. Also from the 7th post position (out of 10 total contenders), I’malreadythere came second by just half a length to now-scratched Dressed in Hermes at the Zuma Beach Stakes at Santa Anita in October. In between Zuma and the Los Alamitos Futurity, he came third in the 7 furlong Bob Hope Stakes at Del Mar (pp. 7/7- damn, is 7 this horse’s lucky/unlucky number?), pretty much staying in third most of the race. I’malreadythere also “held third” in the one mile Del Mar Juvenile Turf Stakes before Zuma (pp. 1/12), beating out Rare Candy by half a length. I’malreadythere’s only win so far was in his maiden, which he broke on his second try at Gulfstream at a mile on the turf (pp. 1/10), where he stalked the pace and then dug in 3 wide after coming down the stretch to surge clear and win by 2 lengths. So this distance is clearly no problem- the competition seems to be the problem. In fact, his first attempt at breaking his maiden, also at Gulfstream, was just 4.5 furlongs (pp. 6/7) and it was the only race he didn’t at least show in. Today, his best competitors aren’t here. I think he’s a solid win/place bet in Dressed in Hermes’ absence. Pedigree: Crown of Thorns x Wildfire Ruby, by Wild Event. We see Northern Dancer 3 times here, all in the 5th generation, twice on the sire’s side (one of which is a direct sire line). Wildfire Ruby’s dam, Fire Ruby, was a granddaughter of Halo, who famously sired Sunday Silence and Sunny’s Halo, both Kentucky Derby winners. Otherwise, was most stands out to me about this pedigree is that, aside from the Northern Dancer, there isn’t other inbreeding within the 5 generations. Plus, there is more diversity of national origin that what I have seen so far with the other contenders in this race- several horses from Ireland, Argentina, France, and England. Conformation: No pictures found. 8 Sorryaboutnothing (3: 1-0-0) 15-1 Jockey: Flavien Prat (different from last start) Race Record: In his three starts, Sorryaboutnothing has attempted to break his maiden (6.5 furlongs at Del Mar, pp. 6/7), broke his maiden (dirt miler at Del Mar, pp. 9/9) on a technicality since the actual winner was disqualified, and then finished last in the Los Alamitos Futurity (pp. 6/7). It seems like the outside post position may help him, but I’m not convinced he can really mount a serious challenge against I’malreadythere and Let’s Meet in Rio. Pedigree: Repent x Royal Card, by Chapel Royal. Sorryaboutnothing is actually tangentially related to I’malreadythere on his sire’s side- Repent is Crown of Thorn’s sire. Here we just have Northern Dancer once on either side, in the 4th generation on the sire’s side through a direct line and in the 5th generation on the dam’s side through several matrilineal lines. Mr. Prospector is in the 5th generation on the dam’s side through Gulch. Similar to I’malreadythere, there aren’t really many other big names in this pedigree, but there is a good diversity of national origin. Conformation: Only an action shot from a workout to go by, but I do like the way this horse looks. He has a big hindquarter, especially in relation to his shoulder and his cannon bones (not super visible since front legs wrapped) appear to be short in relation to his forearm. He’s not super muscly, but well muscled. His hooves are solid. It’s hard to tell from the way he’s cantering, but it seems like if he were standing straight he might have sickle hocks. Looks like he enjoys running, although race record seems to indicate that even if he enjoys it, he isn’t as good as his competitors. 9 Collected (2: 1-1-0) 3-1 Jockey: Martin Garcia (same as last start) Race Record: Collected’s first start was his maiden at Santa Anita, an approximately 6.5 furlong downhill turf race in October (pp. 10/10), which he won by a nose after running toward the front throughout. His second start was the Cecil B. DeMille Stakes at Del Mar (pp. 2/12), which he lost to Dressed in Hermes by a length and a quarter after staying on or just off the pace. He seemed like he could have made it, but DiH was faster. With DiH out of the equation today, the biggest question that remains is how he’ll transition to dirt from turf. Otherwise, he seems like a good place/show bet considering that the only other horse here who raced against presumptive-but-scratched winner DiH and placed is I’malreadythere. Pedigree: City Zip x Helena Bay, by Johannesburg. Mr. Prospector, Northern Dancer, Hawaii, and Runaway Bride all appear twice in the 5 generations for Collected’s pedigree available on Pedigree Query. With the exception of Northern Dancer, who is confined to just the dam’s side, each other horse appears once on each side. Mr. Prospector’s most recent appearance is as the sire to Carson City, who in turn sired City Zip. With the exception of that iteration of Mr. P, all other inbreeding is relegated to the 5th generation. Sneakily hidden in Collected’s dam side is Storm Cat (and thus, further back, Secretariat), through Johannesburg’s sire Hennessy. Helena Bay (ironically a chestnut) was born in England and raced a bit in Canada; her dam, Josette, is Irish bred. Conformation: Can’t find any pictures.