This version of the PEOPLE fact sheet, May 2012 has been prepared for use with screen reader software.
The PDF version also available at www.planmelbourne.vic.gov.au is recommended for general access.
PEOPLE FACT SHEET
INTRODUCTION
The size, structure and changing preferences of the population influence how we plan for the future. Based on
current trends, over the next 30-40 years the population of Melbourne is currently projected to grow from four
million to six million people. An extra two million people in our city will have an impact on resources, the
environment and on the way land is used. We will need to plan for these matters as well as the numbers and
types of jobs, houses, schools, transport and community services we may need in the future.
PEOPLE TODAY
Melbourne is one of the world’s most liveable cities. It is the second largest capital city in Australia and is home
to over four million people.
Melbourne excels as a centre for the arts, commerce, education, entertainment, sports and tourism. Melbourne’s
road, rail and tram networks provide access to a range of experiences and our ports and airports provide
Melbourne with strong trading links to the rest of the country and the world.
Together these strengths make Melbourne an attractive international city to live, visit and do business.
Victoria’s population has continued to grow, but at a reduced pace compared to several years ago.
Recently, Melbourne has been growing by around 1,200 people a week. The two drivers of population growth are
natural increase (more births than deaths) and migration.
Graphic: Showing Population Change as a result of natural increase/decrease and in and out migration
Natural increase is likely to continue to be an important contributor to population growth. Over the past
ten years the number of births has increased by more than 10,000 per year. In 2010 there were an estimated
54,600 births in Melbourne, up from 44,000 in 2000.
DID YOU KNOW?





Over the past 40 years Melbourne grew by 1.5 million people.
The number of people aged 65 and over is expected to double over the next 30-40 years.
Melbourne’s population is growing at a faster rate than regional Victoria’s.
The proportion of households comprised of families with children is expected to decrease by four
percent over the next 20 years.
The annual number of births has increased by more than 10,000 over the last ten years.
PEOPLE TOMORROW
Here are some key facts about people and the changes government, businesses and the community need to
consider.
PLANNING FOR POPULATION GROWTH AND CHANGE
Based on current trends, Melbourne’s population is currently projected to reach six million people over the next
30-40 years.
More people living in Melbourne will change the demands on the city and surrounding areas.
Victoria’s regional population is also growing. Around 630,000 more people are expected to live in regional
Victoria over the next 30-40 years. Around a third of this growth is likely to be in Geelong, Bendigo and Ballarat.
Planning for the future will need to take into account the scale and location of growth and the services required to
support growth and change.
Graphic: Diagram showing population projections and distribution over the next 30-40 years.
Source: Victoria in Future 2012
GROWTH
Over the past 20 years, Melbourne’s population growth exceeded the rest of Victoria, a reversal of the pattern
prior to 1991. Between 1920-1991 the population of the City of Melbourne, Port Melbourne, Richmond, South
Melbourne, Fitzroy and Collingwood almost halved. Between 2001-2006 all of Melbourne’s 31 Local Government
Areas recorded population growth.
CHANGE
The biggest demographic change is the number of people aged over 65, which is expected to double by 2041.
This is the result of the large number of Melburnians currently aged in their 40s, 50s and early 60s, progressively
ageing into what we now consider retirement ages. The impact of this change will be felt across many sectors
including the economy, housing, transport and the health system.
HOUSEHOLDS
The characteristics of households are also changing. Based on current trends, over the next 20 years the
proportion of homes comprising families with children is projected to decrease by four percent, while the
proportion of one-person households increases by three percent and couple-only households increases by two
percent.
LOCATION
Similar to other states in Australia and countries around the world, Victoria’s population growth is concentrating in
the urban areas and regional cities.
Over the next 30-40 years, it is anticipated
75 percent of Victoria’s population will continue to be in Melbourne.
GROWTH AREAS
Strong population growth has occurred in Melbourne’s growth areas on the edge of the city. This pattern is
expected to continue, driven by the release of land for residential development within the Urban Growth
Boundary. Over the past 20 years, these growth areas have attracted half a million people. Based on current
trends, it is anticipated over the next 30-40 years, approximately one million more people will live in these areas.
HAVE YOUR SAY
We are seeking your thoughts and ideas on Melbourne’s future.
Join our online forums to discuss:

What do you like most about Melbourne – what makes it unique and the world’s most liveable city?

What do you think the priority should be when planning for growth and change over the next 5-10
years?

What do you think the priority should be when planning for growth and change over the next 30-40
years?
Graphic icons showing links to social media and communication tools –
Twitter is #planmelbourne
Internet website is www.planmelbourne.vic.gov.au
Email to planmelbourne@dpcd.vic.gov.au
Subscribe to the newsletter