Briefing paper
Population Dynamics and Poverty Reduction
Tanzania’s Population Profile
Population growth and momentum
annually. At this rate Tanzania’s population is
projected to reach 65.3 million in 2025 and 88.3
million by 2050 (NBS, 2009).
A key development challenge for Tanzania is its
high population growth rate.
Tanzania’s population almost tripled during the 35
years between 1967 and 2002. The 2002
population and housing census placed the total
population of Tanzania at 34,443,603 almost
equally divided between males (49 per cent) and
females (51 per cent). During the inter-censal
period 1988 to 2002 the population increased 49
per cent (23.1 million to 34.4 million, respectively).
The current official projections show that the
population as of mid-2009 is about 41.9 million
(NBS, 2009).
The growth rates show regional variations from
below 2.0 per cent in Kilimanjaro region and Lindi
(1.4 per cent) to more than 4.8 per cent in Kigoma
and 4.3 per cent in Dar es Salaam.
Age structure
Tanzania’s population is largely youthful with
children under 15 years making up 44 per cent of
the total population. When young people aged 30
years and below are put together, they make up
close to 73 per cent of the total population (NBS,
2002 census).
Male
Female
Age group
At a rate of 2.9 per cent1 the national average
population growth rate ranks as one of the fastest
in the world and translates to a net total of about
1.3 million people being added to the population
1
At an annual growth of 1.0% a population will double itself in 70
years; at 2.0%, the doubling time reduces to 35 years. Tanzania
at about 2.9 per cent per annum will double its population in less
than 25 years.
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
5.0
Per cent
10.0
15.0
80+
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
20.0
The elderly, though currently a small segment of
the population, is increasingly becoming a
conspicuous cohort not only in terms of their
caring capacity for HIV and AIDS orphans but also
their health and social service needs. The size of
the elderly population is increasing due to
marginal increases in life expectancy.
In Tanzania, the average woman will give birth to
5.7 children in her life time. While there has been a
slight decline in fertility since 1991 (6.3 children)
the current rate has virtually stayed the same since
1996, meaning there has been persistently no
decline in fertility in over a decade. Globally,
Tanzania ranks among the countries with the
highest fertility rates.
In 2002 the number of old persons (above 65
years) was around 1.35 million. Elderly women
are more vulnerable especially if they are widows.
Many are informally employed and literacy rates
are low.
Dependency burden
As a measure for economic dependency, the age
dependency burden is used to define the workingage adults (ages 15 to 64) relative to children
under age 15 and the elderly 65 years and older.
When there is a high dependency burden then
there are more people to support with the same
income and assets. Tanzania has a high
dependency ratio of 0.85 (Kenya at 0.84 and
Uganda at 1.12).
Regional variations exist and tend to mirror
variations in growth rate with the highest rates in
Kigoma (7.4), Bukoba (7.3) and Shinyanga regions
(7.3) and the lowest in Kilimanjaro (3.9) and Dar es
Salaam (2.5).
The high burden of youth and old age dependency
affects household income and spending and sets
limits on household savings. It is estimated that the
dependency ratio will continue to rise unless a
major policy change is made to address the
demographic transition.
Fertility
Tanzania’s rapid population growth rate is, for the
most part, driven by high fertility rates, short birth
intervals, early unset of sexual activity and related
high adolescent fertility/teenage pregnancies.
Poor women and women with no education have
twice as many children as wealthier, more
educated women. Contraceptive use is also lowest
among the poorest and unmet need for family
planning services among women in the poorest
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household is higher than unmet need among the
wealthier households.
Teenage pregnancy is a common phenomenon.
Many Tanzanian girls marry early or are sexually
active before marriage. This exposes them to
unplanned pregnancies and unsafe abortions, HIV
and AIDS and risks associated with early
pregnancy and child birth. Nationwide, two third of
girls will be married before their 20th birthday.
Twelve per cent of young girls and 7 per cent of
young men will have had sex by age 15 years. The
median age at first intercourse for girls is 17 years.
Twenty six per cent of women age 15-19 are
pregnant or have already given birth.
Early sexual activity is more common among less
educated and rural young girls. Girls who marry
young typically have children early and have more
children than their peers who stay in school.
Early marriage, high adolescent fertility and early
onset of sexual activity contribute to the current
and persistently high levels of fertility in Tanzania.
Teenage pregnancy also limits women’s
opportunity for better education, jobs, income and
ability to participate meaningfully in social and
economic development.
With over 1.3 million people being added to the
population annually together with the large
number of young potential child bearers, there is
an inbuilt population momentum and this will
accelerate population growth for at least the next
five decades even if fertility was to be reduced to
replacement levels of 2 children per woman
(current levels are 5.7).
Reducing the current fertility rate would require
prioritizing voluntary family planning and
increasing contraceptive prevalence rates to over
65 - 75 per cent. Presently, only about a quarter
(26 per cent) of married women use some form of
contraception of which only 20 per cent use a
modern method. Contraceptive use is linked to
education levels and marital status. Fifty per cent
of married women with secondary school
education use a contraceptive method compared to
13 per cent of married women with no education.
Sexually active unmarried women are more likely
than married women to us modern contraception
and among unmarried women, 41 per cent use
some form of contraception2.
Fig. 6
Of importance are the reproductive health choices
that women in Tanzania would want to make
around the number, spacing and timing of their
children. More than one in five (22 per cent)
married women in Tanzania will like to delay their
next birth (15 per cent) or stop having children
altogether (7 per cent), however are not using
contraception for reasons such as affordability and
lack of access and of information. This level of
unmet need for contraception is high and is even
higher among the poorest and among women with
no education. The level of unmet need among non
married and adolescents is not fully known, though
modern contraceptive use among adolescent girls
is only 12 per cent.
In summary, the drivers of high fertility in
Tanzania include early marriage, early onset of
child bearing and subsequent school dropout, low
use of modern contraceptives and high unmet need
for family planning. Furthermore, Tanzania
remains a pronatalistic society with strong
patriarchal systems and the influence of religion
and culture cannot be overlooked. Large families,
2
Women’s Health in Tanzania – key findings from the
2004-2005 TDHS and 2003-04 THIS.
Page | 3
polygamy, children as assets, son preference
remain some of the aspects that remain strongly
engrained in many communities and mindsets.
Mortality
Infant mortality has declined from 170 per 1,000
live births in 1967 to 115 in 1988, 99 in 199, 68 in
2004/5 and further to 58 in 2007/2008.
Under-five mortality has also declined from 231 per
1,000 live births in 1978 to 192 in 1988, 147 in
1999, 112 in 2004/05 and 91 per 1,000 live births
in 2007/08 (URT, THMIS).
Life Expectancy
Life expectancy at birth is a function of infant and
under-five mortality and is one of three indicators
used to determine the human development index
(HDI)3. In Tanzania between 1978 and 2002 there
was a gain of 7 years in life expectancy at birth (44
years and 51 years, respectively). More recent
estimates put the average for both sexes at 45.24
years, 44.56 for males and 45.94 for females (2005
data).
Although the AIDS epidemic has taken a severe toll
on families and communities this has changed in
the last few years and has not had a major effect on
the overall population size or age structure (unlike
it has in Botswana or Lesotho).
Infant and Child mortality
The Tanzania report on poverty and development
(2007) notes that in health, sharp reductions in
infant and under-five mortality have been
recorded, with rates approaching the MKUKUTA
target and on trajectory to meet the targets set by
the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs –
MGD4). However, enormous disparities in
mortality rates persist between regions.
In Tanzania more than 55 per cent of all births are
in an avoidable high-risk category. The risk of
infant mortality in Tanzania is more than twice as
high when spacing of births is shorter than 2 years.
In addition, adequate nutrition and access of
pregnant women to antenatal and postnatal care
will be crucial to reduction in maternal and child
mortality in the country.
Maternal mortality
Maternal health is the notable exception to positive
health trends in Tanzania. With official figures of
578 per 100,000 live births there is no indication
of any improvement in maternal mortality.
Moreover, neonatal mortality, which is closely
linked to poor maternal outcomes, remains
stubbornly high and now accounts for nearly half
of all infant deaths.
3
HDI takes into account three key indicators, education,
life expectancy and GDP. Tanzania’s HDI ranking is 151 of
182.
To meet the MDG goal on maternal health (MDG5),
Tanzania will need to reduce its mortality by three
Page | 4
quarters from 578 to 145 per 100,000 live births
and ensure universal access to reproductive health
by 2015.
The irony is that maternal deaths are to a large
extent preventable and can be addressed through
relatively simple interventions including family
planning to address unmet need and to space
pregnancies, increasing the proportion of births
attended by skilled personnel and ensuring the
widespread availability of emergency obstetric
care to treat complications arising during
pregnancy and delivery.
HIV and AIDS
Another dimension to health is the negative effect
of HIV and AIDS on the economy and society. About
2.2 million people were living with HIV and AIDS in
Tanzania by 2004, largely among those aged 20-49
years. It is estimated that about 200,000
Tanzanians are infected with HIV each year. Urban
areas have higher HIV prevalence rates than rural
areas (9 per cent and 5 per cent respectively).
Women are more disproportionately affected than
men and older adults aged 30 years are more likely
to be infected than younger age groups.
AIDS affects the human capital of the economy by
distorting the skill composition of the labour force,
with implications for productivity. The loss of
productivity that results and the indirect costs
such as loss of earnings, productivity losses arising
from absenteeism, labour turnover, substitution of
less qualified and experienced staff, additional
training are significant. Another effect is the
increasing number of orphans, now estimated to
be about 800,000 in Tanzania.
Urbanization and Migration
The current population is distributed between the
urban areas (26 per cent) and the rural areas (74
per cent). The population density is estimated at
45 people per square mile. However, the
population is highly concentrated along Lake
Victoria in the North, in the Southern highlands
and around main business and trading centres like
Dar es Salaam, Mwanza, Mbeya, Dodoma, Tanga
and Arusha.
The population growth rates in urban areas are
more than double that in the rural areas because of
rural–urban migration – a key population dynamic
variable. This poses important challenges to urban
authorities. The average national urban growth
rate was 4.3 per cent from 1988 to 2002. Dar es
Salaam for example is growing at a rate of 4.3 per
cent per annum and is now characterised as a
“crisis area” in relation to its size and the resources
it requires to sustain even the minimum standard
of social service delivery.
The ICPD at 15 National Report (POPC, 2009)
noted that rapid urbanization is a challenge
because it has led to the emergence of informal
traders, most of who migrate from the rural areas.
The perceived or actual lack of opportunities in
rural areas is the main push factor for young
Tanzanians to the urban centres.
The results of the Tanzanian Household Budget
Surveys (1991, 200, 2007) show that indeed there
is rural poverty. Basic needs poverty (and food
poverty) is relatively higher in rural areas (37 per
cent are below the basic needs poverty line),
followed by other urban areas (12.9 per cent) and
Dar es Salaam (6.7 per cent). Therefore, people
tend to move away from rural poverty, and this
accelerates urban population growth and harbour
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large numbers of young job seekers, most of who
end up with menial jobs, if any job at all.
One consequence of the high rate of urban
population growth is the rise of unplanned
settlements (squatters/slums) characterized by
pressure on available basic services including
housing and secures tenure, electricity, safe and
reliable water supply, sanitation, access roads,
drainage and waste collection management. Dar es
Salaam alone hosts 56 unplanned settlements
accommodating approximately 70 per cent of its
population. This situation is likely to have an
adverse influence on rates of HIV and AIDS, gender
based violence, crime rates and degradation of the
environment including waste and water pollution.
Apart from rural-urban migration, in recent years,
Tanzania has also experienced rural-rural
migration with a clear southward movement. This
has brought new challenges in land use and water
conflicts between agriculturalist and pastoralists;
destruction of water catchments, game and forest
reserves such as the Ireful wetlands in Usangu
plains in Mbeya region and other places (ICPD at
15 National Report, POPC, 2009). These problems
pose serious challenges for efforts to reduce
poverty in the fast changing environment in which
conflict among different land users is a most likely
outcome.
Security in the sub-region has caused in-migration
in the form of refugees. There are around X camps
with a population of about y registered refugees
within the camps. Refugees in Tanzania bring new
population dimensions. Refugees being naturalized
bring the challenges of settlements, social
integration with local communities and planning
for already over-stretched government services.
International migration is little studied and
documented. One strand in argument sees “brain
drain” from emigration of skills and labour
generally for greener pastures in the “Diaspora”;
another sees some opportunities in remittances
and transfers (direct investments) if they can be
harnessed. In the absence of data, Tanzania does
not know the size of its emigrants, their
characteristics and potential contribution to
development; nor does it know similar
perspectives of its immigrants, information about
which is reported in censuses, albeit without
further incisive analysis.
It is through systematic integration of population
issues (distribution, migration, urbanization) into
national and regional development policies and
plans that the impact of population dynamics on
the economy and society can be minimized.
Conspicuously lacking in Tanzania is an explicit
urbanization
and
mobility
policy
and
implementation of the Human Settlements
Development Policy of 2000.
Implications and Challenges
The present population profile and its dynamics
have far reaching implications for development
and poverty alleviation.
Studies have shown that two major factors will
determine Tanzania’s future economic growth
prospects: growth in the working-age share of the
population and institutional quality meaning
factors such as good governance, government
stability, lack of corruption and a stable business
environment that encourages domestic and foreign
investors.
Page | 6
Tanzania’s young people can be the driving force
behind economic prosperity in future decades, but
only if policies and programmes are in place to
enhance their opportunities. Positive national
outcomes and a window of opportunity to save,
also known as the demographic dividend (or
bonus) can result from having a large and better
educated workforce with fewer dependent
children to support – children who will in turn be
more educated and employable.
East Asia (Thailand, Indonesia) provides the best
evidence of the potential impact of the population
dividend. In the 1950s, the average East Asian
woman had six children, but by the mid 1990s she
had only two. A strong educational system and
sound economic management made it possible to
absorb the large generation of young adults (due to
the population momentum) into the workforce.
During this time growth in GDP per capita
averaged more than 6 per cent per year.
Researchers have estimated that the demographic
dividend accounted for one-fourth to two-fifth of
this growth.
If Tanzania continues on its current population
trajectory, its economic gains as well as gains at the
household level for poverty reduction will be
undermined. In such situations, there is high
pressure on the provision of social services and
infrastructure, indirectly also impacting on
development of other sectors such as education,
health, water and sanitation, agriculture and
environmental stability.
The 2008/09 State of the Economy discussed
during the fiscal year’s Budget Session put the
overall GDP real growth rate (at 2001 prices) in
2002-2008 at between 6.7 per cent and 7.8 per
cent. While an impressive range by its own
standards, still not by the standards expected if
Tanzania is to meet its MDGs (which require
consistent, minimum ranges of 8-10 per cent per
annum) and particularly in light of the global
financial downturn. Unfortunately, these economic
indices are depressed by rapid population growth
rate at the 2.9 per cent per annum rate.
Already this high population growth has partly
arrested the would-be gains of economic growth
and poverty reduction. The 2007 Household
Budget Survey shows that the proportion of people
living in poverty has decreased by 2.4 percentage
points, from 35.7 per cent of the population in
2001 to 33.3 per cent in 2007. The reduction in the
proportion of poor would translate into a reduced
number of poor people only if the reduction in the
poverty ratio was large enough to compensate for
the increase in the population. The reduction in the
poverty ratio indicated by the 2007 HBS data has,
however, not been able to compensate for the
growth rate of the population of about 2.9 per cent
per year. As a result, the reduction in the
proportion of poor translates to an increase of
about 1.3 million people living in poverty between
2001 and 2007 from 11.7 million in 2001 to about
13 million in 2007.
Certainly, the high rate of population growth,
resulting largely from persistently high level of
fertility, poses a great challenge to the country’s
target of meeting the demands for social services
and facilities, particularly in such areas as health,
education, employment, housing, environmental
security and general well being. Spurred by high
fertility, Government notes in the National
Population Policy (2006) that between 650,000
and 750,000 persons are being added to the labour
force annually, yet about 2.3 million remained
jobless. A reduction in population growth rates will
reduce the rate of supply of new entrants into the
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labour force and thereby compliment other
strategies aimed at promoting employment.
In its budget prioritisation, Tanzania has placed
emphasis on four key sectors – education,
infrastructure, health and agriculture. It will be
challenging for the government to achieve its aims
in these areas if it does not take into account the
impact that population dynamics will have on
these sectors.
What population sensitive interventions could do
is to reduce the supply of potential pupils till a time
when the resources (e.g. teachers, infrastructure
and learning materials, etc) can be effectively
balanced with the needs. If one million fewer
children are born during the next MKUKUTA
period through an effective family planning
programme, this would enable the system to
spread its resources on education and other
services more effectively.
Education
Health
For example, evidence shows that high fertility
undermines the education of children in a variety
of ways (larger families have less to invest in
education of each child; early pregnancy leads to
school dropouts, etc).
In Tanzania, national
educational indicators reveal largely positive
trends particularly at the primary and secondary
levels, although quality of education and gender
gap especially at the higher levels, remain a major
concern. Additionally, ongoing challenges exist in
achieving geographic equity in educational
outcomes and in meeting the needs of vulnerable
children (URT, Poverty and Human Development
Report, 2007). If all the children in the country –
including the most vulnerable, excluded and
marginalized – are to realize their right to a quality,
rights-based education, then the underlying
population factor in educational planning should
be seen in the size, gender equity, growth rate and
distribution of the school age population.
The available body of evidence among countries
shows that high rate of population growth calls for
increase in health cost because the high fertility
rate that promotes rapid expansion of the
population requires increasing investments in
obstetric and paediatric needs, as well as
increasing outlays in general preventive and
curative medical services and facilities to reduce
the high rates of morbidity and mortality which
characterize a rapidly increasing population
(Population Council, 1994).
It is an up-hill task to increase the enrolment ratios
because actual enrolments and supply of
infrastructure and teachers must progress more
rapidly than the increase in population itself. In
addition, women in Tanzania are at an educational
disadvantage compared to men.
Empirical evidence has also shown that the early
onset of fertility (teenage pregnancies and
motherhood) and the close spacing of births (less
than 2 years) present health risks and prematurely
intensify pressures on families and governments to
provide livelihoods for new generations of
children.
Child survival is also related to child spacing,
fertility and health of mothers. Under conditions of
high overall death rate, as in the poor countries of
the world, infants suffer most and this tends to
influence parents’ reproductive responses, choice
of family size and birth spacing.
Agriculture
Page | 8
In Tanzania women contribute more than half of
the agricultural labor force and grow more than 70
per cent of stable crops. Investing in women’s
health including maternal health will not only save
the lives of many mothers and prevent disabilities,
but also can ensure significant economic returns in
terms of women’s own productive labour, as well
as their care-giving roles within the household that
may free time for the productive labour of others.
Agriculture remains the backbone of the Tanzanian
economy; 70-80 per cent of all employed adults in
Tanzania are engaged in agriculture and forestry
activities (ICPD at 15 National Report, POPC,
2009). With low productivity in agriculture the
challenge of poverty reduction remains daunting,
which is why the corner stone of Pillar 1 of Kilimo
Kwanza is the transformation of peasant and smallscale farmers to commercial farmers and improved
agricultural productivity.
The role of population dynamics in agricultural
development in Tanzania has been neglected. Yet,
analysis of rural population distribution has shown
that high and increasing population density in
large areas of the country has generated negative
impact
on
agricultural
production
and
environmental integrity.
Environment
Rapid population growth puts pressure on the
environment resulting in the increase in energy
use and scarce resource. It is estimated that in the
Usambara Mountains almost 70 per cent of the rain
forests have been destroyed since 1954; and in
areas like Tabora and Songea, tree felling for
tobacco cultivation and curing is rampant; while
slash-and-burn cultivators sets in motion a series
of events leading to destruction of forests. These
trends are reported to have several adverse
consequences that include accelerated soil erosion,
fuel wood scarcity, high rates of evaporation, and
climatic change.
The sustainable supply of fuel wood in Tanzania is
estimated to be 19 million cubic meters per year,
but the total consumption is estimated at 43
million cubic meters per annum. Rapid population
growth has been viewed as the main cause of
deforestation in Tanzania4. Population growth
reduction strategies will go a long way in slowing
down the rate of environmental degradation and
facilitate
environmental
conservation
and
improved agricultural productivity in general.
Policy framework
The Government recognized the relationship
between population dynamics and development
and therefore set as the primary objective of its
National Population Policy to enhance its efforts in
coordinating all population programmes and
achieve integration of population variables into
development plans at national, sectoral and district
levels, and thereby harmonize population and
economic growth.
Tanzania is signatory to the ICPD Programme of
Action and other key international and regional
development agendas that acknowledge the
centrality of population dynamics in achievement
of development goals.
Although Tanzania’s National Population Policy
has been in place since 1992, with a more recent
version of 2006, it has not been comprehensively
implemented within the framework of MKUKUTA.
Unfortunately, population issues, lumped with
other cross-cutting issues and said to be
mainstreamed in sectoral strategies and
4
Ndalahwa F. Madulu, 2004.
Page | 9
programmes has, in reality, been neglected in
national development efforts. The neglect of
population dynamics in poverty reduction
interventions has translated to its casual treatment
or
omission
in
development
planning,
prioritization and budgeting.
Institutional framework
Frequent changes in custodians of population
issues and of poverty reduction initiatives has
posed challenges, as the two interrelated concerns
constrain their implementation within their
changing institutions (President’s Office Planning
Commission and Ministry of Finance and Economic
Affairs). This has adversely affected commitment in
addressing them as an integral whole.
The current institutional structure mandated to
oversee and coordinate population issues is the
Social Services and Demographic Cluster of the
President’s Office Planning Commission (POPC).
In the absence of a formal, well staffed and high
placed Population Planning Unit that has
significant clout with other sector ministries and
departments, the National Population Policy will
remain the good policy that it is and nothing more.
Furthermore, till the structures proposed in the
National Population Policy – specifically the
Tanzanian Council on Population and Development
(TCPD); the National Population Technical
Committee (NPTC) and Population Desks in all
relevant Ministries at regional and district levels
are established or reactivated, the structure will
remain week.
There exist best practices in the region that can be
emulated (Uganda’s Population Secretariat and
Population Units and Kenya’s National National
Agency for Coordination of Population and
Development) should the government be
committed to ensure a strong institutional home
for population coordination.
Furthermore, since population dynamics was not
considered under MKUKUTA I it failed to be
reflected within the MKUKUTA Cluster or formal
dialogue structures.
Implementation of the
National Population Policy (2006) and its
corresponding Implementation Strategy (2007)
has therefore not benefited from the sectoral or
performance reviews that are typical of thematic
and sectoral areas such as health, agriculture or
education. Along the same lines, there has not
been the level of coordination and dialogue among
government, development partners, private sector,
academia and civil society that one sees in other
sectors or themes.
The recent efforts to review MKUKUTA I has lead
to the establishment of an informal dialogue
structure among interested stakeholders including
key development partners like Netherlands, World
Bank, USAID, GTZ and the UN system; the placing
of population related discussions within MKUKUTA
Cluster II; and a renewed effort by POPC to take
leadership in coordinating population efforts.
Population and development capacities
Tanzania seems to have trained a number of
demographic and population specialists and the
University of Dar es Salaam’s Demographic
Training Unit (DTU) currently offers a Masters
programme in Demography. Unlike other fields
that have strong professional association/bodies
and that frequently network and meet, the true
potential of Tanzania’s population expertise is not
being realised.
It is evident that only few
Tanzanian demographers are being produced and
the field does not seem to attract the same level of
interest as it did in the past. Furthermore, the
Page | 10
present pre-service demographic curriculum needs
to be reconfigured in light of emerging population
issues (e.g. gender, population and climate change)
and development approaches.
mercy of its neighbours and other countries to
provide such data that are often inaccurate.
Population related research is not well planned or
coordinated and funding is not forth coming for
efforts to transform the DTU into a Centre or
Department of Population Studies. Until it can be a
full-fledged department it has little opportunities
to get a budget from University administration to
recruit and retain its own staffing to deliver quality
demographers/population specialists in-country.
The actual investment in population related issues
is challenging to determine particularly because
the National Population Policy and its
Implementation Strategy have not been costed.
Every year, with much difficulty, the Netherlands
Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute – NIDI in
collaboration with UNFPA tracks resource flows
for population and development activities. At the
ICPD in 1994, the international community
specified USD 17 billion in 2000, and 18.5 billion in
2005 is needed to finance programmes in the area
of population dynamics, reproductive health,
including family planning, maternal health and the
prevention of sexually transmitted diseases, as well
as programmes that address the collection,
analysis and dissemination of population data
world-wide. Two thirds of the required amount
was to be mobilized by developing countries
themselves and one third, USD 6.1 billion in 2005,
was to come from the international community.
There is a concern that the resources mobilized are
not sufficient to meet current needs which have
grown dramatically since the targets were agreed
upon in 1994.
The present capacity building approaches on
integration
of
population
variables
into
development planning is predominantly ad-hoc
and in-service and is far from what is needed to
produce and maintain population development
capacities and capabilities.
Population-based data and research
Weak capacity spills over to population and
development data management. Data generation is
weak, and where it exists only first-level analyses
are undertaken, implying unsatisfactory link
between
data
producers
and
data
consumers/users, not to mention lack of further
analysis likely to generate more insightful results
for planning, prioritization, budgeting and
monitoring.
A particular area of concern is the lack of research,
studies and policy on migration/human mobility
and development. Only immigration data are
available from population censuses and
immigration statistics data compiled by the
Ministry of Home Affairs. Unfortunately, there are
no data on emigrant which leaves Tanzania at the
Financial Investment
For Tanzania, in 2007 the total reported income by
source for population activities was USD 70.8
million of which 44 per cent came from
international sources and 56 per cent from
domestic/national sources (NIDI 2007). Resource
flows for population and development activities in
2008 amounted to about 44 million of which 34
per cent was international and 66 per cent
domestic (NIDI 2009), confirming the decreasing
trend in funding for population activities at a time
when demands are increasing.
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Way Forward – Policy Options
Political Commitment
Considering the importance and centrality that
population dynamics plays in national efforts to
reduce poverty and based on the aforementioned
challenges it becomes difficult to conclude that
national commitment to population issues are at
the level they ought to be. The government’s
recent interest in population issues and specifically
the MKUKUTA PEED secretariat that is
coordinating the MKUKUTA review, are
particularly
promising
signs.
Considering
neighbouring countries in the region have good
experiences (Rwanda, Uganda, Ethiopia), southsouth collaboration should be encouraged.
Many aspects of population dynamics can be
sensitive areas for governments and policy makers
(family planning, early marriage, adolescent
sexuality, unsafe abortion, etc) to address and
particularly during election times, however, being
bold and courageous at this stage in Tanzania’
demographic transition is what is needed to ensure
the quality of life that all Tanzanians deserve.
Slowing Population Growth
With the growing and inbuilt population
momentum, in the years ahead, the demands on
social and economic services will increase
remarkably, and in turn, this will mean that the
amount of resources and infrastructure required to
meet Vision 2025 and MKUKUTA goals will
increase. Any development effort in support of a
new generation MKUKUTA must therefore not
overlook the importance and benefits of slowing
the population growth.
Expanding Family Planning Services
Family planning is one of the most cost effective
ways of slowing population growth and improving
infant and maternal mortality. Evidence shows
that family planning can reduce maternal deaths by
20 per cent, and for every dollar invested in
family planning the government can save up to
USD 31 in health care, water, education and
housing5.
Tanzania should accelerate current efforts to relaunch its Green Star National Family Planning
campaign so that access to family planning services
is universal especially in the most disadvantaged
areas and where fertility levels and unmet needs
are high. Innovative ways include community
based distribution programmes, social marketing
and franchising, public private partnerships and
linking family planning with HIV prevention efforts
including clear strategies on dual protection.
It will also require that contraceptive supplies are
kept constant and stock-outs do not occur
especially as demand increases. This will require a
strengthened Contraceptive Logistic Management
System and increased allocation of funds under the
contraceptive budget line of the MOHSW’s MTEF.
Strengthening Health Systems
Increasing life expectancy, reduction in maternal,
newborn and infant mortality and preventing new
HIV infections requires an effective health system
that reaches down to and engages meaningfully the
community including young people. Tanzania
should continue to invest in implementing it Health
Sector Strategic Plan III and health sector reforms
with a focus on strengthening Primary Health Care.
Challenges in the health system particularly in the
areas of human resources for health, health
management information systems and health care
financing need to be urgently addressed. National
5
Lancet maternal Survival and Women Deliver series
2006/2007; Meeting the needs, 2006 UNFPA and PATH.
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budget allocation would have to increase from its
current 10 per cent towards the Abuja target of 15
per cent and health budget allocations for
reproductive and child health including adolescent
sexual and reproductive health must also increase
from its current 7 per cent level.
HIV Prevention key to the National Response
While there has been significant focus and
investment in the treatment and care of people
living with HIV and AIDS, less attention has been
placed on prevention. Government should be
supported to finalise and implement the National
HIV prevention strategy and its corresponding
two-year action plan (2009/10-2011). Preventing
new infections among young people is key to
ensuring an AIDS free generation.
Improve Education
Should Tanzania wish to reap the benefits of the
demographic dividend (the youthful population
bulge) it would need to ensure improvements in
educational enrollment and retention, especially
for girls and quality standards at all levels
especially at the secondary and tertiary level. It
would need to ensure that secondary and
university education is relevant for the skills
needed in the workforce and that there are stable
and economic conditions conducive to growth and
job creation. For older Tanzanians, adult education
programmes especially for rural women can help
correct past inequalities.
Linked to teenage pregnancy, given the impact of
early child bearing and sexual activity, the need to
pass legislation that would hasten the process of
amending the 1971 Marriage Act and bar marriage
before age 18 is critical, as is addressing teenage
pregnancy in schools.
Efforts must be
strengthened to integrate population and family
life education (POP-FLE) including sexuality and
life skills education in the schools system with
complementary outreach programmes for out-ofschool youth.
Empowering women, ensuring gender equality
Population growth, economic development and
women’s socio-economic status are intimitly linked
and largely interdependent. Women’s access to
health services, resources and assets may however
greatly influence population variables.
It is
imperative that economic strategies, structures,
policies and laws recognize women as vital in
development. Improving women’s access to and
control over resources can be a key lever for lifting
families and communities out of poverty. Gender
disaggregated data is critical to recognizing and
counting women’s economic contributions and
therefore accounting for their unpaid labour.
Improvement in infrastructure would ease
women’s burden and increase their use of social
services including releasing girls to attend school.
Creating Jobs
Job creation including equal access to employment
for male and female youth should be a priority.
Tanzania’s current labour force comprises of
largely less educated and unskilled workforce
mainly working in the informal sector of the
economy with low wages. Bring the job market
into the 21st century should be the aim including
ensuring equal access to employment for both men
and women and recognition of the contribution
that women make to the informal economy.
Implementing the National Population Policy
and an Effective Institutional Architecture
Tanzania’s
National
Population
Policy
Implementation Strategy (2007) provides an
effective framework for the needed multi-sectoral,
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multi-dimensional and integrated approach to
population and development. The strategy would
benefit from a comprehensive review and more
specific target setting and costing in order to
ensure a more effective and coordinated
implementation. The corresponding effective
institutional
structures
for
coordination,
monitoring and implementation would need to be
available at all level – national, regional and
district.
A forward looking analysis of the
capacities needed to effectively lead and
coordinate the implementation strategy would be
particularly helpful in developing a proper capacity
building approach and particularly if the Social
Services and Demographic Cluster, President’s
Office Planning Commission is to remain the
overall custodian of the National Population Policy.
Reactivation of the Parliamentary Committee on
Population and Development and the Tanzanian
Council on Population and Development will begin
to create accountability for the Policy’s
implementation.
Population issues should be
included as a substantive thematic area in the new
MKUKUTA structure and subsequent dialogue
structure allowing government, development
partners, private sector, civil society and academia
to engage in its performance and public
expenditure review on an annual basis.
Statistical Master Plan under the auspices of the
National Bureau of Statistics. Funding and capacity
building for the 2012 Population and Housing
census needs to be secured.
Besides data generation and particularly at the
district levels, capacity needs to be built to analyse
and utilize data for proper planning and decisionmaking. Mobilising commitment of decision
makers at the regional and district levels to
allocate resources for the integration of population
variables into development planning will be
important. Such investment would allow the
training of policy planner on population
integration. A more strategic, sustainable and
longer term approach needs to be put in place to
address demographic and population expertise in
the country including efforts to attract and develop
young demographers and statisticians.
Prioritizing Urbanization and Migration
Migration including urbanization is an important
aspect of population dynamics that requires special
expertise and attention. Inadequately studied
migration (both internal and international) and
urbanization should become priority areas for
research, with a view to institute and implement
appropriate policies and plans.
Integrating Population Variables into Planning
Conclusion
Appropriate data through research and surveys
needs to be generated for policy formulation,
planning, budgeting and implementation. The
Population and Housing Census and periodic
demographic and health surveys remain the main
source of population data for planning and
monitoring in Tanzania and as such, must continue
to be supported. Efforts need to be continued to
finalise and start implementing Tanzania’s
It is clear that without addressing the issues of
rapid population growth, high fertility, maternal
and infant mortality and morbidity, HIV prevention
and migration, and placing population issues
central to national development planning,
Tanzania has little chance of achieving its Vision
2025 and improving the quality of life of its people.
Prepared by UNFPA Tanzania as input into the
MKUKUTA Review Process, October 2009)
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