Hurricane Gustav Advisory 29
Issued: Tuesday, September 2nd 2008 11:36am CDT
Current Status
At 10AM CDT, Hurricane Gustav is located near 29.2N/90.8W, or about 30 miles south of
Houma, LA. Movement is to the northwest at 12-13 mph. Maximum winds are estimated to be
110 mph in some of the heavier squalls out over the water. However, most winds around the
center are considerably lower than 110 mph.
From the NHC: A hurricane warning remains in effect from just east of High Island to the
Mississippi-Alabama border, including New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain. The tropical storm
warning has been discontinued east of the Alabama-Florida border. A tropical storm warning
remains in effect from the Mississippi-Alabama border to the Florida-Alabama border.
Changes From our Previous Forecast
Gustav has undergone considerable changes in its wind structure over the past 12 hours. Though
the tropical storm force winds extend quite a ways east of the center across the northern Gulf,
Gustav's hurricane force winds appear to have decreased in coverage and only extend out about
30-40 miles from the center. The 60 mph wind radius has also decreased in size considerably in
the past 6 hours. Because of these reduced wind fields, inland winds are now forecast to be
considerably less than previously forecast, and Gustav should weaken below hurricane strength
more rapidly once the center moves fully inland.
Our Forecast
There are no changes to the track on this advisory. Gustav should move across Morgan City over
the next few hours and pass Lafayette late this evening. In 24 hours, Gustav should be crossing
the Louisiana border into Texas as a tropical depression. Once in Texas, Gustav's remnant low
will move very slowly as it gradually dissipates.
Though Gustav's winds are still being listed at 110 mph by the NHC, latest recon reports indicate
average winds around Gustav's center are closer to 85-90 mph, with a few areas of 100 mph
winds. Clearly, Gustav has weakened considerably since 24 hours ago. Gustav will probably
have very few pockets of hurricane force winds by the time it passes Lafayette this evening.
Once northwest of Lafayette, Gustav should steadily weaken to a tropical depression by the time
it reaches the Texas border.
We haven't received any reports of Gustav's storm surge at landfall. But based upon Gustav's
reduced wind field, we expect that the surge was generally less than 10 feet from Terrebonne
Bay east to the mouth of the Mississippi River. East of the Mississippi River, the surge was
likely in the 5-7 foot range across Chandeleur Sound and in the 2-4 foot range into Lake
Pontchartrain. Along the Mississippi Coast, tides are running 3-5 feet above normal this
morning. Gustav will produce widespread rainfall totals of 6-12 inches across southeast and
south-central Louisiana over the next 6-12 hours. The core of heavy rain will accompany Gustav
as it moves northwestward across Louisiana and into Texas by tomorrow. Occasional tornadoes
can be expected mostly right of Gustav's track today.
Other Possibilities
No other significant possibilities.
Our next advisory will be issued by 3PM CDT.
Meteorologist: Chris Hebert
HSI Help
Forecast
Hour
0
6
12
18
24
36
Valid
Lat
Lon
10AM CDT
29.20N 90.80W
Mon Sep 1
4PM CDT
29.90N 91.80W
Mon Sep 1
10PM CDT
30.60N 92.80W
Mon Sep 1
4AM CDT
31.10N 93.40W
Tue Sep 2
10AM CDT
31.50N 93.90W
Tue Sep 2
10PM CDT
32.00N 94.70W
Tue Sep 2
Max
Winds
Max
Gusts
Hurricane Severity
Index
Classification Size Intensity Total
110mph 130mph
Category 2
7
10
17
75mph 110mph
Category 1
4
5
9
65mph
90mph Tropical Storm 2
3
5
60mph
75mph Tropical Storm 2
3
5
40mph
55mph Tropical Storm 1
1
2
35mph
45mph
1
1
Tropical
Depression
0
48
72
10AM CDT
32.50N 95.40W 25mph
Wed Sep 3
10AM CDT
33.20N 95.40W 25mph
Thu Sep 4
35mph
35mph
Tropical
Depression
Tropical
Depression
0
0
0
0
0
0
Hurricane Gustav Advisory 29 Site Forecast
for Meraux, LA
Issued: Tuesday, September 2nd 2008 11:36am CDT
Gustav's center will track across Lafayette late this evening then move northwest toward the
Texas/Louisiana border by Tuesday morning. Gustav probably has only a small area of hurricane
force winds near the center, so we do not expect many reports of hurricane force winds as the
center passes Morgan City and moves into Lafayette this evening.
Heavy squalls across southeast and south-central Louisiana will continue through this afternoon
and this evening as Gustav's center moves into west-central Louisiana. Heavy rain will move into
central Louisiana easrly this afternoon and condinut until Tuesday mid morning in the
Alexandria area.
Rainfall
General rainfall amounts in the path of Gustav are expected to be in the 5-10 inch range, with
some areas receiving as much as 15 inches.
Storm Surge
Gustav produced a storm surge in the 8-10 foot range along the southeast Louisiana coast this
morning. Strong onshore flow this afternoon will keep the surge from receding until tonight.