Adam Price EIS, Fall 2011 Suntech Power and the Opportunities of Energy Storage Note: the majority of this paper is based on experience from the summer of 2011 at Suntech Power and discussions with Suntech CCO Andrew Beebe and the Suntech strategy team as part of internal projects. Founded in 2001, Suntech Power is the world’s largest producer of solar panels (“PV”). Suntech emerged as one of the first Chinese manufacturers to deliver panels at a significantly lower cost compared to its Japanese and Western competitors while maintaining comparable or superior quality. In addition to excellent products, Suntech succeeded in part because of its willingness to understand local markets and regulations, opening regional offices and working closely with solar developers and utilities in individual geographies. By 2011, PV manufacturing has emerged as a mature and competitive commodity industry. Although double digit growth is expected to continue for the near future, dramatic reductions in unit revenues and expected industry consolidation have given Suntech the motivation to expand into business lines outside of tradition solar manufacturing. Acquiring an emerging energy storage company and related technologies has been identified as a high impact course of action due to perceived synergies with solar and other renewables. Suntech’s primary goal is to increase the attractiveness of its own solar products and establish a second technological focus, but the company is unsure how to best enter this sphere and gauge the impact on various customers and ecosystem players. The Current Solar-Utility Ecosystem The overall electrical utility ecosystem goal is to reliably meet end-user electricity demand, which is highly variable due to weather and other external factors. Because of this, the electrical generation grid is built to meet >99% of the historical maximum demand and uses a variety of tactics and technologies to respond to second-to-second fluctuations. Secondary goals include minimizing electricity costs to end-users, maximizing the profit of individual players, and (more recently) meeting environmental standards and requirements. PV manufacturers’ direct customers are developers who build and own utility-scale solar power plants and commercial or residential end-users who install smaller solar arrays on their property. Competing technologies (renewable and conventional energy), finance and development partners, utilities, and government/regulators all have important roles in the ecosystem. Unit costs are compared across generation technologies based on the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) which is the average cost of a KWh of electricity across the lifetime of an asset including input and capital costs, financing, % utilization, and pollution abatement costs. Additional aspects of a generation option and the overall grid are: Price 2 Intermitentcy / Variability – the extent to which a power source is available and the predictability of that extent. Solar is intermittent as it is only available during daylight hours and variable as total power is dependent on time of day and weather. Baseload power, e.g. coal and nuclear, is not intermittent; it is ran at virtually 100% uptime. Dispatchability – the ability to quickly increase or decrease output on demand. Solar has no dispatchability due to its intermittency; Coal has minimal dispatchability due to high startup/shutdown costs. Natural gas generators are often referred to as “peaker plants” as they can quickly and cheaply be started up during times of high demand. Power quality – different generating technologies inherently produce power of varying frequency or power. Technologies that are “clean”, i.e. similar to grid standards, require fewer electronics and transformers to regulate power. Excessive “dirty” power implies unstable frequency or too high/low generation voltages and can damage electronics or cause power outages. Dirty power can be caused directly on the supply side, for example by widely varying wind speeds, or a failed response to demand side fluctuations. Figure 1 - The Solar-Utility Ecosystem PV Manufacturers Suntech and other PV manufacturers compete among themselves on solar panel price and efficiency (power produced per unit area). Manufacturers sell to (1) generating entities which build large solar power plants and sell the generated electricity on to utilities and (2) end users who install solar arrays onto commercial and residential property. Because of the high upfront capital cost of a solar project, additional partners have arisen to facilitate financing, engineering, and construction. The term “bankability” refers to the perceived riskiness of a manufacturer’s panels in regards to performance and lifetime guarantees so that a project can Price 3 meet its required financial goals. Better bankability allows projects to obtain better interest rates from financing partners. Competing Technologies Conventional generation (coal and natural gas), as well as other renewables (wind and biofuels), compete directly with solar PV when a generating entity decided to build a new facility. Developers and utilities choose among generation options based on grid and technical constraints, capital and input costs, and regional factors such as climate which drive the overall economics of a plant. Each generating option brings a different profile of LCOE, intermittency, dispatchability, and power quality. Utilities prefer to build a portfolio of generation options to create the flexibility to meet various demand scenarios. Developers / Generating Entities Developers build and operate power plants as assets which sell generated electricity to utilities. For solar projects, utilities and developers usually sign a Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) which guarantees the purchase of certain quantities of electricity at a defined rate schedule. This allows developers to better predict cash flows and estimate a profitable rate of return for their investment. Developers are usually required to meet stringent standards for overall power availability and quality. Finance and Development Partners Finance and development partners facilitate the construction of a power plant. The most important player is the finance partner, who provides the upfront capital to a developer. Interest rates are based on project risk and perceived bankability of the chosen PV manufacturer. Another player is the EPC (Engineering, Procurement, and Construction) contractor who physically builds a project and often makes the final decision on the solar panel manufacturer. Finance and EPCs may also take on the role of the developer or generating entity depending on the market, regulations and company. Utility In most markets, the utility is a regulated entity responsible for transmitting and distributing power to end users. Utilities may also act as developers / generating entities. Although the primary focus of a utility is to ensure grid reliability, any increase in rates for end-users must be justified (usually under high scrutiny) to a regulatory board representing the end users or government. End Users Price 4 End users are companies or individuals which consume electricity. End users may choose to install solar panels themselves to meet electricity needs. The majority of these end users still need to be connected to the overall grid because of solar’s variability. Government / Regulators Government and regulators set rules, standards and rates for utilites such as the aforementioned regulatory board. The government also acts in two keys ways: (i) setting incentives/taxes and (ii) creating RPS requirements. Incentives and taxes impact all ecosystem players. Developers and end-users may receive tax incentives for their capital investments. Utilities and technologies are subject to a variety of taxes at the state and country level. Feed-in-tarriffs, popular in Europe, guarantee a certain rate for electricity to generators. RPS (renewable portfolio standards) mandate a certain percent of electricity must originate from specific sources; utilities which do not meet these mandates face fines and penalities. Suntech’s Efforts to Align Ecosystem Players Suntech and other solar manufacturers have made efforts to align other ecosystem players in favor of building solar power versus other generation options for new capacity in the market, thus allowing them to sell more solar panels. The first approach is in the technical design of panels and their non-photovoltaic components, known as the balance of systems or power electronics. These components have been designed so that solar panels inherently produce power at the quality of grid standards, regardless of sunlight levels. This is done much more cheaply and efficiently than other generation options, creating an advantage for solar on this evaluation criterion. Next, Suntech has made efforts to reduce the financial risk of its partners and customers. Foremost, Suntech has focused on maximizing the bankability of its products and reducing any negative connotations of a Chinese firm. All inputs and equipment are either sourced from high-quality Western suppliers with long histories or manufactured in-house, subject to 3rd-party audits. Suntech has aggressively built relationships with banks (financiers) and utilities in each country to educate partners and remove the risk associated with relationship uncertainty. This has often meant opening an office and hiring local personnel, incurring higher fixed costs compared to Chinese competitors. Last, Suntech has facilitated financing vehicles to directly serve end-users who purchase solar panels for commercial and residential use. These allow consumers to lease panels without the upfront capital expenditure and reduce costs by consolidating systems under a single entity to qualify for incentives and tax breaks usually permitted for larger systems. First Solar and other competitors have taken this a step further by directly entering in the Developer/Generating Entity, Financing or EPC role. The theory here is that by actively engaging in the Price 5 project bidding and development process, manufacturers can more aggressively create a pipeline for their own panels. To date this has had a mixed result for competitors: First Solar has successfully booked several large projects through its own development arm, but these projects may have selected First Solar’s panels anyways due to technical and sourcing constraints. Other manufacturers have seen their developer groups choose against their own panels; the subsidiary’s incentives and arms-length operations mean the parent’s products may not create the best financial return or ability to win a project bid. The manufacturers’ own customers also see a conflict-of-interest, fearing wholly-owned subsidiaries may receive beneficial pricing when competing for the same project. Suntech has explicitly chosen not to enter development, direct financing, or EPC role to serve utility-scale projects. Instead Suntech prefers to partner with other parties more closely during and after the selection process. Suntech takes an active role in the project design phase, which often occurs prior to being selected, as a free service; this advice often takes the form of helping developers optimize a site by maximizing revenues instead of power output by taking into account various utility rates and expected demand. For example, demand and rates (unit revenues) are often highest late in the afternoon when temperatures peak while power output is highest in the middle of the afternoon. Suntech also takes on risk by forming joint ventures with EPCs and developers on single projects, taking on execution and finance risk should the other parties default. In this way, Suntech feels they have gained many of the benefits their competitors realize from direct participation without creating conflicts of interest. Lastly, Suntech has aligned its own guarantees to better meet customers’ own goals. Originally the focus was on product warrantees to establish a product would simply last and operate for 25 years. This evolved into performance guarantees on single units, for example power output would degrade by no more than 5% after 5 years. Today, based on Suntech’s experience and risk tolerance, performance guarantees can now be given at the system level. By promising a certain level of power output per year or month (in KwH) for a project, Suntech is financially guaranteeing its customer’s cash flows and reducing risk. An Unfortunately Short Primer on Energy Storage The development of radically improved energy storage technologies has opened up usage at the utility scale, with storage capacity now in the equivalent potential of thousands of homes for multiple hours. Solar is seem as an obvious candidate to pair with storage technologies because of its underlying issues with intermittency and time of availability (daytime). Technologies range from updates to traditional batteries (EV batteries), massive electrochemical arrays (commonly known as flow batteries), to physical storage (compressed air, flywheels, etc.). Unfortunately, there is no one storage technology that is the clear winner Price 6 based on performance or cost. Each has different aspects for charging time, the speed to switch from charging to output, storage efficiency and density (volume required per capacity unit), maximum number of charges, and cost. This means each technology has a different application for dispatchability, reduction of intermittency, storage, improving power quality, and increasing flexibility. Direct benefits to Suntech For Suntech and PV manufacturers, bundling storage technology with solar would meet a frequent request. Highly responsive storage removes short-term intermittency cause by cloud cover or shading. Storing larger amounts of power extends the time power can be sold into the night or the ability to dispatch power into the grid when rates are highest. Integrating storage at the point of generation may also be the lowest cost approach by sharing infrastructure, construction, and other fixed costs while minimizing any losses created by transmission. Increased levels of solar and energy storage capacity on the grid should also have a synergistic effect, building on one another to allow a higher % of capacity to come from solar and drive overall panel sales. STP’s has several options to enter the storage industry. The initial bias is towards outright acquisition of a storage technology, based on past preference to own rather than license technologies. Certain technologies like flow batteries are also highly dependent on materials science, a domain where Suntech already has extensive experience. Suntech could also aggressively pursue partnerships with storage companies and become a leader in integrating solar with storage on a project-specific basis. Last, Suntech can do nothing and wait until the industry further matures. Each option would have implications on aligning Suntech goals with those of other industry players. Allignment / Misallignment in the Ecosystem Competing technologies Competing technologies can realize several of the same benefits as solar from the integration of storage technology. Addressing uncertainty and intermittency is attractive to wind generation. Cheap storage would allow baseload power to store energy during times of low demand, then release this into the grid during high demand, reducing the need for higher cost peaking option like gas or peak demand-following generation like solar. This implies further development and integration of storage could actually harm the sale of solar panels by Suntech. At the same time, acquiring a storage company could allow Suntech to sell directly into competitors for their own projects and create a new customer segment. Developers / Generating Entities Price 7 Developers and solar plant operators are the customers which in the end realize many of the benefits mentioned for Suntech above. Depending on the scale of storage, solar could become a baseload power source if there are enough sunny days in the year. Intermittency problems from cloud cover are also addressed, which reduce some variable costs in an operation. Power delivery to the grid can also be better shaped to match output with times of higher electricity rates. Utilities Overall, Utilities will likely see storage as independent from generation. Utilities gain the benefits above, but can also begin to demand stricter performance from generating assets like output guarantees, preventing plant operators from excessively shifting power output. Power services, like frequency modulation and demand response, should become cheaper with more competitive options to provide such services. The economics of storage will reduce the need for peaking capacity and can also eliminate investments in transmission lines or distributed generation. For example, transmission lines into a region may not need upgrades to meet peak or growing demand; instead, storage can be used to capture energy during low demand, then redelivery it into the system as needed. Like the situation for competing technologies, Suntech may be able to reach a new market of customers or customer needs, but the impact on solar panel sales themselves is uncertain. End-User (Suntech Customers) End-users which directly install solar panels see storage as a way to create backup power and further independence from the grid. Nevertheless, unless the combination of solar and storage fulfills 100% of energy needs, connection to the grid will still be necessary. Here, regulation in many regions will further destroy the benefit back-up power during power outages. Because of the grid structure, low amounts of power being pumped back into the grid in an uncontrolled manner during an outage can actually damage equipment. This means many facilities (the exceptions being hospitals, police stations, etc.) with independent power sources must actually turn off their own power supplies during outages. Storage still has benefits for some consumers. Storage can prevent the need for investments to meet only peak power demands; for example, some utilities charge more for high voltage lines into a facility or if demand from a facility peaks excessively above average usage levels. This can commonly occur when heavy machinery is being started up. Therefore, storage can help mitigate these events. Storage can also shift when power is taken from the grid away from peak rate times (like in the afternoon) to periods when electricity is cheaper. Price 8 A Suggested Strategy for Suntech and Storage. As briefly described, storage technologies will have an impact on many players of the utility ecosystem and would allow Suntech potential sales into Utilities and Competing Technologies, two areas where it lacks direct presence today. At the same time, the immaturity of storage technologies at a large scale means the nature of influence and needs is still largely unknown. The variety of technologies and their current performance means no single technology will be appropriate for multiple types of projects. Any long-term winning technology will likely be commoditized quickly and spread to multiple providers. In the short term, Suntech lacks the focus needed to commercial storage at a wide scale. In whole, there is minimal benefit to Suntech for directly purchasing a storage technology at this point in time while the cost of waiting is low. Suntech should still begin to actively play in the energy storage industry as a partner. It is a good bet that storage will follow a similar trend in development as solar. The most successful companies will not necessarily be the best technologies; more important will be the ability to meet the needs and influence other players in the ecosystem. By working alongside storage companies that already have strong knowledge of the ecosystem, Suntech can learn from them and gain experience. As competing storage technologies develop, Suntech can then transfer its own knowledge to parties with minimal required capital investment. Close knowledge and experience in the area will also allow Suntech to acquire or invest in storage companies on an opportunistic basis as winners become more obvious. Recommendations for the near future include: Further diligence of storage in conjunction with customers to better gauge uses and requirements. Participation in studies with utilities, especially where storage is paired with various technologies Building of relationships with current storage leaders, like AES, SustainX and A123 Sources / Interviews Andrew Beebe – CCO, Suntech Power Jake Wachman & Evan Hindman – Strategy group, Suntech Power Josh Gould (T’09) – Director, Cleantech Group