Human Geography – Population
1. Population Dynamics
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Fertility
- Contemporary fertility differentials at global and national levels
- Proximate variables affecting fertility
 Biological (years in marriage, IVF, sterilisation, contraception, abortions)
 Socio-economic (economic/social value of children, status of women in work)
 Institutional (government policies and religion)
Mortality
- Contemporary mortality differentials at global and national levels
- Factors affecting mortality
 Demographic (age and gender)
 Medical technology (advances in medical care)
 Public health measures (sanitation, vaccination)
 Socio-economic changes (standard of living)
 Political (genocide, wars)
 Epidemics (Spanish flu) and pandemics (AIDS)
Migration
Concepts
 Time (short and long term movements)
 Distance (national and transnational, origin and destination)
 Transnational movement (skilled and unskilled labour)
Issues in migration
 Labour migration and impact
 Identity and nationhood
2. Implications of Population Change
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Population Composition and Distribution
Overview of world population growth and future projections in LDCs and DCs
 Population distribution across space and inequalities in distribution
 Need for and problems of population forecasting at national scale
 Problems of population prediction
 Future problems and opportunities resulting from population change and
policies in different parts of the world
Interpretation of population pyramids
 Interpretation of population pyramids and relationship to growth rates
 Dependency and its implications
 Coping with population growth (housing, work and services)
 Coping with population loss (maintaining viable communities)
 Value and limitations of population pyramids in prediction
Socio-economic composition
 Ethnic diversity
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Inequality between different populations and different sectors of the same
population
 Indices used to measure inequalities in population
Population Change and Planning
Population growth in relation to Demographic Transition Model
 DTM and its usefulness
 Consideration of the 5th stage
Anti-natal and pro-natal policies
 Role of governments in planning developments in light of forecasts of
population change (in numbers and composition of national populations)
 Population forecasting and government policies affecting population growth
and their implications
Population-Resource Relationships
Carrying capacity, optimum population, overpopulation and underpopulation
Population-resource theories, origins and value
 Malthus
 Meadows
 I=PAT (Impact = Population x Affluence x Technology, Ehrlich and Holdren)
Development and resource use
 Global variations in resource use
 Changes in society (technological, economic and political) result in changing
appraisals of resources and environments, their use and management)
Hedonist vs. conservationist views of population-resource relationship and their
consequences
 Relationship of population growth to environmental conditions and the
changing resource base
 Contrasting assessment of population-resource relationships
 Sustainable development
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1. Population Dynamics
Fertility
 Discuss the fertility differentials between LDCs and DCs.
 Discuss how the different proximate variables affect fertility in LDCs and DCs.
 Evaluate the impact of governments’ influence on the proximate variables in attempting to
achieve a desired fertility rate.
Key Terms Regarding Fertility
Fertility: The natural capability of giving life, dependent on nutrition, culture, economics, way of life,
sexual behaviour.
Fecundity: The ability to reproduce – differs from fertility in that fecundity represents the potential
to reproduce biologically, while fertility means actually reproducing.
Crude Birth Rate (CBR): Measures total number of births over a unit of time per 1000 in any given
population. CBR varies between countries, and is usually between 10-55 per 1000. ‘Crude’ is termed
as such because factors such as age, sex and migration are not accounted for.
Total Fertility Rate (TFR): Average number of children born to a woman throughout her
reproductive years of 15-49. The sum of averages of number of babies born by age n/number of
women age n gives a grand average. TFR in the US is 2.1, in 2008 Zambia was 5.8 and Singapore was
1.28.
Age-Specific Fertility Rate (ASFR): The average number of children born to a woman in a specific
year or age group concerned.
Replacement Level: Measure of the extent to which a given population is able to produce enough
offspring to replace itself. The ratio is approximately 2 per family, but to account for possible
premature deaths, the replacement rate is a 2.1 TFR.
Proximate Variables Affecting Fertility
Biological Variables
Biological variables are split into three sections: intercourse, conception and gestation.
Intercourse Variables
1a) Age of Entry into Stable Sexual Unions – the socially acceptable age of entry into formal
marriages. This, of course, differs over space and cultures. The earlier the age, the higher the chance
of a higher fertility rate. For many LDCs, marriage is almost universal – there are many cases of
children as young as 13 marrying due to specific cultures. For example, in India prearranged
marriages are common. However, in DCs, the pattern is that marriages are late in life or non-existent.
As education and opportunities for employment increase for people, they become more financially
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and economically independent. There is more choice and freedom as to whether they want to get
married or not, unlike in LDCs where marriage is almost bound by social and cultural norms.
1b) Interruption of Stable Sexual Unions – various factors which inhibit marriage, such as the death
of a spouse, or divorce. For LDCs, death seems to be more common due to, generally, poorer health
care systems. The key problem for DCs today is the increasing rate of divorce. One of the reasons is
the increased status and choice of women in DCs due to higher education, thus they are more able
to be financially independent than their counterparts in LDCs. The way which society views the
family unit may have also changed, contributing to this phenomenon.
2a) Exposure within Unions: Postpartum Abstinence – where mothers do not get pregnant again
immediately after giving birth due to various reasons. One reason is postpartum amenorrhoea,
where women are generally less fertile while breastfeeding. This serves as a natural birth spacer
between children, along with a social/cultural or natural inhibition of coitus and pregnancy during
lactation. The spacing of births enhances the survival of the offspring. However, in recent years with
infant formula on the rise in LDCs (the situation in DCs vary, depending largely on the choice of the
women), this method is becoming less effective.
2b) Periodic Abstinence – for example seasonal abstinence when men/women migrate in search for
employment. It is estimated that without seasonal migration, fertility could increase by 25%. This is
especially so for LDCs, where many migrate to other countries and DCs to find jobs, leaving their
families back in home countries. For example, in the Philippines, many women leave the country as
domestic workers. For many other LDCs, it is largely the male population. Regardless, this leaves
behind a skewed gender ratio as indicated by their population pyramids. On the other hand, this
migration might be the reason that BRs in these LDCs have not been rising out of control, in
comparison to other LDCs.
Conception Variables
1) Voluntary Conception Variables – these include the use of contraception (mainly condoms and pill
usage), affected by the accessibility, availability and affordability of such methods. For example, in
most DCs contraception is widely used due to it being more accessible and more available due to
more affluent conditions, in contrast to many LDCs. As such, contraception seems to have greater
impacts in DCs. Some LDCs hold sexual education for females, and give out free condoms in an
attempt to alleviate the problem of imperfect information. Contraception is also affected by cultural
factors – some religions, such as Catholicism, prohibit contraception. Some Gulf States also require
contraceptive measures to be prescribed.
Another factor would be technologically-assisted pregnancies, such as IVF and artificial insemination,
to boost fertility. Naturally, due to high costs and specialized technology and expertise required, this
is more applicable to DCs than LDCs.
2) Involuntary Conception Variables – one of the key factors here would be the prevalence of
diseases and health problems. Infectious diseases such as smallpox, as well as problems of
malnutrition leads to lower health levels overall. This has the effect of lowering the fertility rate due
to subfecundity, where the ability to reproduce is reduced. This naturally has greater impacts on
LDCs due to poorer healthcare standards.
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Gestation Variables
Gestation refers to the period between conception and birth, approximately 9 months for humans.
1) Abortion Rates – abortion during pregnancy is a main problem – especially in some DCs where it
might be seen as less of a cultural taboo, and there is safe technology for the operations. In some
LDCs, such as India and China, the prevalence of ultrasound scans and a cultural preference for boys
has resulted in gender specific births and a skewed gender ratio. This was exacerbated in China by
the one-child policy.
2) Foetal Mortality – the chance of miscarriages. This risk depends on conception age, malnutrition,
healthcare levels, but mostly differs between individuals. Generally, in DCs conception age tends to
be higher due to career focuses, increasing miscarriage rate. Malnutrition and healthcare during
pregnancy also seems to be lower in LDCs. Otherwise, there is no defining pattern in miscarriage
rates between DCs and LDCs.
Other Proximate Variables
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Value of Children – in LDCs, children are traditionally seen as a form of security in old age or
a source of labour (such as helping out as farmhands). This is known as survival theory,
where more offspring is key to survival. The cost of raising children in DCs is, however,
rather high, due to education fees etc.
Status of Women – with regards to both work and education. Due to greater and more equal
opportunities nowadays, the cultural and social restraint on women is far less than it used to
be. More women are employed, make independent decisions, and as such the age of
marriage increases. Women who are highly educated with stable careers tend to have lower
fertility rates, and with later marriages, fecundity is also likely to fall. In LDCs, the status of
women is likely to be lower in comparison with their DC counterparts.
Socio-economic/Political – factors needed to be taken into consideration include cost of
living, degree of urbanisation, and the role of government demographic policies (pro-natal
or anti-natal). For example, the one-child policy and China, and currently the benefits given
to families with more children in Singapore.
Governmental Influence on Fertility Variables
In attempting to achieve a desirable fertility rate (which is usually towards replacement level of 2.1),
governments have implemented various policies to either boost or reduce fertility levels. The extent to
which governments have been successful largely varies.
For a majority of LDCs, and in the history of many DCs, it is likely that governments are implementing or
have implemented anti-natal policies in order to reduce the birth rate, worrying about future population
booms and whether such booms will be sustainable by the country on economic, social and
environmental fronts. Currently, when many DCs are experiencing falling fertility rates, governmental
efforts have been targeted at boosting these flagging rates.
The most infamous example of anti-natal policies is China’s One-Child Policy, restricting the number of
children urban couples can have to only one. Flouting the policy incurred heavy fines of up to 30% of
annual income. The main objective of the policy was to reduce the rapidly growing population with a TFR
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of 3 in 1980 so as to alleviate its impact on future social services such as healthcare and education, as
well as cutting off possible social impacts such as that of increased unemployment, slum development
and poverty. It was extremely, and perhaps all too successful, with the TFR dropping to 1.8 in 2008.
Problems caused by overpopulation have been solved to a great extent. Of course, many side effects
were also caused, including the increased prevalence of infanticide of female babies. The imbalanced
population is commonly called the 4-2-1 problem, forecasting a population with a high dependency ratio
in the future. However, it is certain that the reduction in fertility rates was a success, due to forceful
implementation and strict regulation – which may have been far too strict, as cases of alleged abuse of
families who flouted the policy have surfaced.
Also, India has attempted to target conception variables, by sponsoring the provision of contraceptives
and family planning education. As a result, contraceptive use has more than tripled from 13% of married
women in 1970 to 49% in 2009, and the TFR has halved from 5.7 in 1966 to 2.7 in 2009.
However, the extent to which it is the government’s efforts that have played the main role in reducing
fertility is questionable. Many of these successes in fertility reduction have been accompanied by
economic growth, increasing education levels and an overall rise in affluence. This in turn has caused the
cost of living to rise, as well as the social status of women to increase in standing, requiring smaller family
units. Perhaps the governments’ anti-natal policies have only assisted in speeding up this trend which has
been already underway.
This can be seen due to two factors. For one, the impact of government policies on different areas of the
country has varied in accordance with literacy levels and affluence. In India, while contraceptive policies
and family planning have reduced TFR to 1.8 in Tamil Nadu (HDI of 0.736, one of the richest, most literate
states of India (rate 80.3%), also the most urbanised), in Uttar Pradesh the TFR has been only reduced to
3.8 (literacy rate of 69.7%). This is, of course, assuming that government expenditure and
implementation between states is roughly equivalent, and all other factors aside from socio-economic
levels are similar.
Secondly, when dealing with pro-natal policies, governments in DCs have seen significantly less success
than when implementing anti-natal policies. Singapore’s efforts at increasing the fertility rate with “Have
Three or More, If You Can Afford It” (maximum tax rebate of $20,000 per couple for third child, priority
for housing choice for bigger families, priority for school enrolment for third child), along with Baby
Bonuses, parental leave (8 weeks of paid maternity leave up to $20,000) and cash benefits have been
largely ineffective, with the 2011 TFR estimated at 1.11.
Japan in 1994 implemented the Angel Plan, emphasizing work-childcare compatibility, providing public
support for childcare services. Cash benefits, abolishing of daycare waiting lists and allowing paid
childcare leave of 50% of wages were implemented, but this has appeared to be ineffective, with TFR
dropping further to 1.23 in 2008. For DCs, many have attributed this failure in pro-natal policies being
due to the shift in mindset since urbanisation and increased affluence along with costs of living in these
countries, leading the shift of focus onto the quality of life and smaller family units.
This is of course not to suggest that government efforts to raise fertility levels have been largely useless
in DCs. Such efforts can be successful if standards of living reach a high enough level, where, according to
Maslow, social fulfillment becomes more important than economic growth. In France, extensive subsidies,
tax breaks and concessions, along with high female participation in the economy and protection of their
jobs, it now has the highest TFR in Europe (2.02), and is on an increasing trend.
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Mortality
 Discuss the variations of mortality between LDCs and DCs.
 Discuss how different factors affect mortality in LDCs and DCs.
 Discuss why the infant mortality rate is regarded as one of the best measures of a country’s
socio-economic progress.
Key Terms Regarding Mortality
Mortality: The incidence of death in a population, normally measured by crude death rate.
Morbidity: The state of being diseased – can in turn be a factor for mortality.
Crude Death Rate (CDR): Total number of deaths over a unit of time, normally a year, per 1000
persons in a population. In 2008, Singapore’s CDR was 4.4, Zambia’s was 17. Interestingly, Mexico’s
CDR is lower than the US’ because of higher birth rates, leading to a smaller number of deaths per
1000. Potential for lapses in comparison.
Infant Mortality Rate (IMR): Number of infants who die within the first year of age per 1000 live
births, excluding aborted babies and still births. In 2008, Singapore’s IMR was 2.1/1000, and
Zambia’s was at a very high 92/1000. A good indicator of the healthcare system of the country, as
well nutritional intake and income.
Life Expectancy: The average number of years a person is expected to live in his lifetime. It is
calculated by sum of all ages of deaths divided by the number of deaths. In 2008, Singapore’s was
80.9, Zambia’s was 45, Japan’s was 83.
Epidemic: Outbreak of a contagious disease that spreads rapidly, affecting large parts of the
community.
Pandemic: Epidemic occurring over a very wide area, across international boundaries and affecting
large numbers of people.
Mortality Differentials
Overall Mortality Changes and Differences
When looking at differences in mortality and the variations in factors leading to it, comparisons can
be drawn between DCs and LDCs, as well as between rural and urban areas of the same country.
Statistics used for comparison include life expectancy, CDR and IMR.
Mortality rates largely depend on the availability, accessibility and affordability of medicine,
healthcare, sanitation and hygiene. Medicine refers to technology and procedures such as
chemotherapy, radiotherapy etc., pharmaceuticals such as pills, mixtures, genetic research and
development, and surgical methods. Healthcare refers to the social institutions generally, such as
public education, campaigns and health programs, nutrition, provision of geriatric facilities, old-age
homes, palliative care, polyclinics, private and public hospitals and the provision of the quantity and
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quality of medical workers. Sanitation and hygiene refers to knowledge of sterilization, heating,
proper sewage and rubbish disposal systems, purifying and filtering systems.
Generally, the trend worldwide is that generally, mortality is declining in both DCs and LDCs, the only
difference being in rates of decrease. LDCs have a faster rate of decrease today, which only makes
sense seeing as they come from a base of higher mortality rates to begin with. At a certain point in
time, an LDC generally will have lower accessibility and availability of medicine and healthcare
compared to a DC. Due to lower incomes, advanced technology and latest healthcare methods are
also unlikely to be affordable for LDCs, also in part due to the likelihood of more corrupt
governments. This is why mortality rates are at any point in time usually higher in LDCs.
As such, the likely reasons for reductions in mortality rates for LDCs are that overall, due to increases
in the accessibility, availability and affordability of medicine as a result of development. Such
developments drastically decrease the IMR, because they directly affect the knowledge of childcare
requirements, nutrition requirements and overall healthcare. Improvements in healthcare and
medicine, along with improvements in social institutions and overall economic growth have a large
impact on IMR, which is also why it is one of the best indicators of socio-economic development.
With the level of healthcare in DCs already decently high, falls in mortality rates in DCs are more
modest. Reductions are normally due to further increasing income levels, economic development
and improving equity, requiring targeting the poorest in society, allowing more levels of society to
afford healthcare by improving distribution. Focus on specific healthcare sectors such as palliative
care, old-age pensions and health insurance also bring up the healthcare level in the country as a
whole.
Differences in Mortality between Certain Groups
Socio-status Differentials
Within a population there tends to be different strata of people, normally divided by income and/or
social class. Mortality rates are higher among people on lower incomes and in manual occupations
because they have less access to good healthcare and live in poorer environmental conditions than
higher income groups. High rates of heart disease are concentrated in the old heavy industrial areas
of the UK and in inner city areas. Lung cancer is also more prevalent in industrial and densely
populated areas with higher than average levels of pollution.
Race and Ethnicity Differentials
Due to different ethnic groups in society and the tendency for bias to occur, minorities are normally
economically disadvantaged when it comes to healthcare and have higher mortality rates. Studies in
the USA have shown that while whites live up to 76.5 years in life expectancy, the life expectancy of
blacks is 6 years lower at 70.8. Blacks are economically disadvantaged, as 31% of all black families
live below the poverty line while only 9% of white families do. This stems from disadvantaged health,
environmental and economic situations.
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Gender Differentials
In general, women have a longer life expectancy than men do. Factors that influence gender differences
in mortality include biological factors such as hormonal influences on physiology and behaviour, and
environmental factors, such as cultural influences on gender differences in health behaviours. The
importance of specific factors may reflect the environmental context. How developed a country is can
affect or shape the most important influences on gender differences in mortality.
In developed countries, men's more risky unhealthy behaviours are a major reason they die younger.
Their higher rates of cigarette smoking, heavy drinking, gun use, employment in hazardous occupations,
and risk taking in recreation and driving are responsible for males' higher death rate due to lung cancer,
accidents, suicide, and homicide.
Men's risky behaviours also contribute to their having higher mortality rates in developing countries, but
in developing countries the gender gap in mortality has been smaller than in developed countries.
Environmental factors such as unsafe water and inadequate nutrition increase the death rate due to
infectious diseases for both sexes. Women, however, face additional risks associated with childbirth.
Maternal mortality is high in sub-Saharan Africa, and there are higher suicide rates for women than men
in China.
Another reason the gender gap in mortality is smaller in developing countries is because in many of these
countries, women have much lower social status than men. As women's status catches up with men's in
these countries, the gender gap is expected to increase in the developing nations. But in developed
countries, the gender gap is expected to decrease as women adopt unhealthy behaviours similar to
men's—drinking and smoking more, experiencing more job-related stress.
Differences in what is expected of men and women and how they are taught to behave also contribute to
variation in health-related behaviours. For example, many cultures encourage or condone men's heavy
drinking, but discourage it in women. Also, in many cultures, women are not expected to work outside
the home in the cash economy while men are expected to be part of the labour force. Because women
are less likely to be part of the work force than men, they suffer less from the ravages of work. As a result,
their health deteriorates less quickly.
Changes over time can affect the gap in life expectancies. In most developed countries, men's widespread
adoption of cigarette smoking during the first half of the 20th century was a major factor behind males'
widening mortality disadvantage. Later, in the United States, the mortality gap narrowed as women
began to smoke more and men smoked less than before. The difference in male and female life
expectancy has narrowed in recent years, from at least 7.7 years from 1972-1979 to 5.2 years in 2004,
according to the U.S. National Centre for Health Statistics. Changes in smoking patterns tend to affect
men more than women, because more men have smoked and because smoking has elevated death rates
more for men than for women. As smoking becomes even less common, mortality rates will probably
decline further.
Age Differentials
The reasons and causes of mortality can also be divided into age strata. For children, infant deaths
are susceptible if there is poor medical care and poor health of the mothers. This is largely to do with
the individual family’s socioeconomics, but naturally IMR is higher in LDCs. The main causes of
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mortality in young adults are due to accidents, homicides and suicides. The reasons for deaths for
people of older age are normally major illnesses such as heart disease and cancer.
Urban-Rural Differentials
Up to a few decades ago, mortality rates were higher in cities due to overcrowding, poor sanitation
and infectious diseases. This was especially true of most cities in LDCs and in DCs before healthcare
was widespread and accessible. Due to the high population density of cities, along with poor sewage
and garbage disposal systems, living conditions were squalid and similar to slums. Today, mortality
rates are much lower in cities, with improved urban conditions and greater affluence.
Epidemics and Pandemics
Epidemics and pandemics are cases where contagious diseases are spread rapidly amongst a large
population, with pandemics being on a larger and more global scale than epidemics. These diseases
induce morbidity, which in turn has a high probability of leading to mortality.
Epidemics:
Dengue in Cambodia, 2008
Death toll was 407, mostly children. This was the highest toll in nearly a decade, and it infected
nearly 40,000 people.
Reasons for the outbreak: inadequate healthcare. Thousands of sick children sought free treatment
at four Swiss-funded hospitals, but there were not enough resources to treat everyone. Overall,
public healthcare is lacking. According to the World Bank, Cambodia spends only $3 per person on
healthcare, with depleted funds after 30 years of civil war.
Lack of public education. Public were unaware of prevention measures like cleaning of stagnant
water, leading to widespread breeding of dengue carrying mosquitoes. After this experience, the
Asian Development Bank gave $300,000 to fund an anti-dengue programme.
Cholera in Zimbabwe, 2008
Swept across the country and spread to South Africa, Zambia and Botswana. 100,000 reported cases
with a death toll of 4300.
Factors affecting the outbreak: Lack of access to clean water in urban areas. Collapse of the urban
water supply, sanitation and garbage collection systems along with the rainy season led to human
waste with cholera bacteria washed into water sources and public drains.
Spread of cholera from urban to rural areas. Infected city-dwellers visited their families’ rural
homes during the holidays. Dead bodies infected with cholera buried haphazardly in rural areas.
Collapse of Zimbabwe’s social and economic institutions. Failing health care system due to lack of
medicine and staff. Due to hyperinflation, hospitals were unable to buy basic drugs and medicines,
overstretching their resources.
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Pandemics
Avian Flu, H5N1
Seasonal in nature like most influenza viruses. The outbreak in Hong Kong garnered worldwide
attention in May 1997. The virus is constantly evolving.
295 deaths worldwide as of June 2010, WHO estimates a 60% human mortality rate. Affects poultry
prices, farmers suffer large financial losses. Tourism is also adversely impacted.
Measures include culling over 200 million birds to attempt to contain the disease. Over $10 billion
has been spent on vaccines and new poultry farming practices. Stocking up of medicines such as
Tamiflu, and drills have been run to educate the public on what to do in case of epidemics.
SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome)
The pandemic period was between November 2002 and July 2003. Guangdong province in China was
the place of origin, and 37 countries were infected. SARS has been contained as of May 2006, but
not eradicated yet.
774 deaths as of July 2003, no future deaths since then. Discrimination occurred to certain groups of
people who were thought to be more susceptible to SARS, e.g. elderly. WHO’s travel advice caused
tourism to dip sharply to affected countries.
Patients were immediately isolated to prevent further spread. The HK healthcare system has been
improved, and lab testing has been underway to look for better treatments.
AIDS
Over 40 million HIV Positive people in the world today, with over 90% in the developing world. The
major countries are South Africa, Nigeria and India. The death toll in 2007 was 2.1 million.
Reasons for the spread: Social stigma. On a national level, this stigma might deter governments from
taking fast action, fearing repercussions in investment, tourism etc. due to declaring a HIV-positive
population. On a personal level, individuals might be reluctant to test for HIV fearing discrimination.
LDCs: Poor provision of healthcare. South Africa’s former president Thabo Mbeki’s denial of AIDS
and refusal to address the problem resulted in ineffective governmental response to AIDS, increasing
the already high death toll.
DCs: Sexual promiscuity without protection. This leads to higher incidence and spread of AIDS due
to a supposedly more liberal society. Social stigma: 27% of Americans would prefer not to work with
a HIV-positive woman.
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Migration
 Compare and analyse the extent of migration with reference to time, distance and
transnational movements.
 Discuss the causes, process, patterns and results of recent migratory flows.
 Assess the consequences of migratory flows with reference to the feminization of labour and
identity and nationhood.
Key Terms Regarding Migration
Migration is the movement of people from one administrative area to another, whether regional or
international, usually involving a permanent change of residence for at least one year. (UN)
Population predictions often do not include migration movements, as it is impossible to predict
accurately. There are also issues with capturing data for migration, as there is still no universally
accepted definition of migration, and data on internal migration within a country is hard to collect.
Circulations are temporary, reciprocal flows of people over any spatial scale without any substantial
long-term period of change in residence. This includes daily flows (commuting), periodic flows,
seasonal flows, and long term flows such as expatriates working overseas. The difficulty with
defining migration here is that for some long term flows such as maids and construction workers,
they eventually return to their homeland.
Mobility refers to both migration and circulation as an overall term. How mobile a population is
depends on the extent to which they move both within the country and between countries.
Reasons for Migration
Voluntary Migration: When people are motivated by better economic or social opportunities in an
attempt to increase their standard and quality of life. This is true of many rural-urban migrations. For
example, in LDCs: In Indonesia, many migrate to Jakarta in search of opportunities. In Thailand, many
go to Bangkok. It should be noted that for LDCs, most of these tend to be primate cities as well. This
attractiveness of cities is also termed to ‘Bright Lights Syndrome’. There is also counterurbanisation
in some DCs, with urban-rural movements, such as Slapton Village in Devon, UK, a retirement village.
This can also happen internationally.
Coerced Migration: When people are collectively pressurised by a larger institution to move
somewhere else, or when large groups of people are self-motivated to migrate in large numbers.
Examples for governmental pressure include the Indonesian Transmigration Programme and forced
urban-rural migration in Cambodia during the Khmer Rouge regime. One example of voluntary
movement is the Partition of India.
Forced Migration: Driven by a need of self-preservation. The individual has no choice but to migrate
due to reasons such as war and civil strife. Examples include the Vietnamese boat refugees during
the Vietnam War in the 1970s and Rwandan refugees during the Rwandan Genocide.
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Migration – Transmigrasi
The Indonesian Transmigration Program (Transimigrasi in Indonesian), was an initiative of the colonial
Dutch government, later continued by the Indonesian government, to move landless people from densely
populated areas of Indonesia (Java, and also Bali and Madura) to less densely populated areas such as
Kalimantan, Sumatra and Sulawesi, supposedly in order to reduce poverty and overpopulation on Java by
freeing up jobs and creating a workforce to better utilize the resources on the islands.
Under the Dutch, in the peak year 1929 in Sumatran east coast, more than 260,000 contract workers
were brought, 235,000 of them from Java. Contract workers entered into a contract as coolie, if a worker
asked for the termination of the contract in the company, he could be punished with hard labour. The
mortality was very high among the coolies and abuse was common.
After independence, under President Suharto, the program continued and was expanded to send
migrants to more areas of the archipelago such as Papua. At its peak between 1979 and 1984, 535,000
families, or almost 2.5 million people, moved under the transmigration program. It had a major impact on
the demographics of some regions; for example, in 1981 sixty percent of the three million people in the
southern Sumatra province of Lampung were transmigrants.
The program has resulted in communal clashes between ethnic groups that have come into contact
through transmigration. For example, in 2001 the local Dayaks and the transmigrant Madurese clashed
during the Sampit conflict resulting in hundreds of deaths and thousands of Madurese being displaced.
Transmigration is controversial in the provinces of Papua and West Papua, where the majority of the
population is Christian. Some Papuans accuse the government of Islamisasi, or Islamization through
transmigration. Other Papuans support transmigration because transmigrants are perceived as
disciplined and hardworking, and because through transmigration, Papuans can make friends with people
outside of their home provinces.
Migration – Partition of India
The Muslim-Hindu conflicts in India in the early 20th century eventually led to the division of Pakistan
from India on 15 August 1947. Pakistan came into being with two non-contiguous enclaves, East Pakistan
(today Bangladesh) and West Pakistan, separated geographically by India. India was formed out of the
majority Hindu regions of British India, and Pakistan from the majority Muslim areas.
Massive population exchanges occurred between the two newly-formed states in the months
immediately following Partition. Once the lines were established, about 14.5 million people crossed the
borders to what they hoped was the relative safety of religious majority. Based on 1951 Census of
displaced persons, 7,226,000 Muslims went to Pakistan from India while 7,249,000 Hindus and Sikhs
moved to India from Pakistan immediately after partition.
About 11.2 million or 78% of the population transfer took place in the west, with Punjab accounting for
most of it; 5.3 million Muslims moved from India to West Punjab in Pakistan, 3.4 million Hindus and Sikhs
moved from Pakistan to East Punjab in India; elsewhere in the west 1.2 million moved in each direction to
and from Sind.
The newly formed governments were completely unequipped to deal with migrations of such staggering
magnitude, and massive violence and slaughter occurred on both sides of the border. Estimates of the
number of deaths range around roughly 500,000, with low estimates at 200,000 and high estimates at
1,000,000.
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Migration is both age selective and sex selective. People of working age (20-35) are more likely to
migrate. Males also tend to migrate more than females, which is largely due to job opportunities.
Types and Forms of Migration
Internal/National Migration
Rural-rural: certain farming types such as nomads and rural communities.
Rural-urban: part of urbanisation. Villages to cities in LDCs (primate cities), also can be international,
from a rural part of one country to a city in another. The most common in LDCs due to perceived
socioeconomic opportunities in the city.
Urban-suburban (suburbanization): a DC phenomenon, such as from Central to suburban London
Urban-rural (counterurbanisation): largely a DC phenomenon, such as from New York City to rural
Montana. Also can be forced: Indonesia’s transmigration programme.
Urban-urban: looking for better opportunities in neighbouring cities.
International/Transnational Migration
International migration usually flows from LDCs to DCs, since DCs are the ones which normally have
better opportunities for job seekers and a better environment and quality of life. Examples such as
Chinese from mainland China migrating to Canada, USA, Singapore and so on to look for better and
more well-paid jobs.
Lesser cases would involve migration from DCs to LDCs. This is much less common, and is more likely
to be due to personal reasons.
Other Types of Migration Patterns
Chain Migration: continuous flow of migrants into a place of destination from a similar place of
origin, sustained primarily by kinship, such as Chinese ethnic communities in North American cities.
This is motivated mainly by economic opportunities, with males migrating first, then bringing along
their families.
Step Migration: where migrants gradually shift closer and closer towards their intended destination,
likely because they cannot afford this proximity immediately, thus locating their selves on the
periphery temporarily, while they work to earn more money.
The different types and forms of migration are affected by distance. Obviously, internal migrations
take place over a far less distance than international migrations.
The Impact of Distance on Migratory Flows
In his survey of migration in developed countries, Greenwood (1997) identifies a few categories of
explanations on the effect of distance on migration.
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a) Distance is a proxy for transport costs of moving.
In general, transport costs incurred in internal migrations are not large. Bihar is one of the poorest
states in India. A third class railway ticket from Patna in Bihar to Delhi (over 500 miles) costs less
than nine times the daily wage of an agricultural labourer in Bihar. For all but the very poorest
households, saving for such an expense is not inconceivable and, in fact, many travellers manage to
avoid buying a ticket at all. Transport costs alone seem unlikely to deter more distant internal
migrations in most contexts. Admittedly there are other forms of monetary costs associated with
relocating residence, such as the cost of establishing a new home. However, although these costs
may be greater in a larger town, there is no apparent reason to anticipate that such settling in costs
would be correlated with distance moved.
Transport costs, and hence distance, may nonetheless be significant deterrents to moving in three
contexts. First, when frequent return visits are intended by potential migrants, which may well be
the case when the migrant wishes to sustain a close link with family left at the point of origin.
Second, although costs of single journeys domestically may not be high, the price of international
travel is significantly greater. Third, for very poor households who are credit constrained, ability to
raise funds to pay the costs of moving in advance of reaping higher earning in their new destination
may be a constraint.
b) More distant moves require greater time and thus higher foregone earnings.
Longer moves indeed normally require larger travel time (though even this depends upon the mode
of travel), but the time involved is hardly extensive. Rather, the larger component of time
commitment may involve job search. The limited evidence on job search among migrants in
developing countries suggests that a significant portion of rural-urban movers have found their
urban job before relocating and that spells of open unemployment among those who have not
found a prior job are brief on average. Neither of these necessarily rule out significant foregone
earnings: job search before moving may prove quite time consuming and involve loss of earnings;
temporarily accepting a low paying job in town can keep open unemployment spells brief yet impose
initial opportunity costs.
c) The psychological costs of separation from home rise with distance.
Psychological costs are a sense of alienation from one’s surroundings. Establishing a home in a
context where a different language is spoken, where peoples of different ethnic groups are in the
majority, where the life-style and institutions contrast with those at home, may be seen as a threat
by some and as an exciting experience by others. Either way, geographic distance is often a very
poor proxy for the changes which prevail. Under apartheid, moving from Soweto to Johannesburg
was prohibited and would have meant entering a different world, while moving from white
Johannesburg to Capetown presented far smaller contrasts. One can move 3,000 miles from one
side of the US to the other and still find McDonald’s. There is also, surely, a large fixed psychological
cost involved in simply leaving home, irrespective of the distance moved.
d) Information about remote locations is more costly to acquire.
If information about remote locations is more costly to acquire, then longer moves either involve
higher costs or embody greater risks under less complete information. Information about job
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opportunities and life-style in alternative locations may be transmitted in a number of ways. In some
contexts, media coverage is no doubt important in shaping perceptions and distance may then be an
important factor where media coverage is more parochial. Perhaps the most important mechanism
for transmittal, however, is a network of previous migrants, especially if these include kith and kin.
When prior migrants have moved short distances, information transmitted over this network will
concentrate on nearby locations. Important as networks may be, there seems no inherent reason
why their role should lead to more frequent short moves. Moreover, as communications improve
one might anticipate that the effect of even an initial network of contacts in nearby locations should
diminish.
e) Extent of homogeneity of labour markets and skill transferability
There is some evidence that unemployed migrants prefer a location in which the labour market has
some similarities to that at home, if only because this enables transfer of job or job-finding skills. To
the extent that labour markets tend to be more homogeneous locally, this can encourage shorter
moves; workers with prior experience only in agriculture may be less likely to make distant moves to
find an industrial job in town or abroad.
Certainly, the predominance of short moves shapes some common features of migration. For
instance, in the low income countries the most common form of migration is frequently rural-rural.
Though almost entirely neglected by economists, partly because of our preoccupation with a
homogeneous rural sector, rural-rural migration actually offers many of the features normally
modelled as the prerogative of rural-urban migration, such as the potential of earnings gain after job
search, and of mutual insurance. Short migrations may also permit easier returns in the event of a
crisis; in Indonesia during the financial crisis of 1998 massive return migration from towns to villages
seems to have played an important role in the expansion of employment during the crisis, as the
sharp currency depreciation enhanced profitability in agriculture (Fallon and Lucas). Step migration from village to town to city - also permits shorter moves and some authors have sought to explain
this in terms of more complete information at close quarters. (Pessino, 1991). Whatever the cause,
step migration may be one of the contributing factors to Ravenstein’s second law - that while cities
attract migrants from nearby villages, these villages in turn attract people from more remote rural
areas - a feature with important implications for trickle-down development.
Skilled and Unskilled Labour Movements
Skilled labour generally refers to any worker who has some special skill, knowledge, or (usually
acquired) ability in their work, bringing some degree of expertise to the performance of a given
job. Skilled workers are generally more trained, higher paid, and have more responsibilities than
unskilled workers.
Both skilled and non-skilled workers are vital and indispensable for the smooth-running of a freemarket society. According to Alan Greenspan, former Chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank,
"...Enhancing elementary and secondary school sensitivity to market forces should help restore the
balance between the demand for and the supply of skilled workers in the United States."
Generally, however, individual skilled workers are more valued to a given company
than individual non-skilled workers, as skilled workers tend to be more difficult to replace. As a
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result, skilled workers tend to demand more in the way of financial compensation because of their
efforts. According to Greenspan, corporate managers are willing to bid up pay packages to acquire
skilled workers as they identify the lack of skilled labour as one of today's greatest problems.
Education is an important factor in increasing people's skill level. The increase in number of people
attending high schools and colleges contribute to the increase in the supply of skilled labour. Mass
education, however, is not the only factor. Immigration is also a big contributor. Immigrants created
a bimodal skill distribution, where most immigrants were either low skill or high skill workers. There
were few who were in between. From this pattern, it can be deduced that it is the workers on the
polar ends of the skill spectrum which have greater motivations to migrate.
Migration of skilled and unskilled labour in today’s world may be deemed a more efficient and
fundamental reallocation of human resource around the world, promoting efficiency – and yet, like
other processes of globalisation, tends to result in unequal gains around the world. Major outflow of
skilled professionals such as doctors from African countries is largely due to the socioeconomic
differences between Africa and their intended destinations, such as lifestyle, economic gains etc.
shaping the decisions of these people. As such, one of the main problems governments face today is
the issue of educating and retaining skilled professionals. Education of people is largely a measure to
improve the productivity of the workforce, but the gains from education have been shown by
studies to be largely accruing to the individual. Thus the problem of brain drain is important to many
countries. Retaining talent should be aimed at making the country attractive to such professionals,
shaping their choices.
Unskilled labour movements arise mainly from the lesser developed countries which lack proper
education, and thus these migrants provide largely manual or repetitive labour, such as construction
workers or domestic helpers. Motivations include poor job opportunities, social problems back at
home, or better earnings abroad, but such movements are usually financially motivated, and
repatriations to support families back in the home country are common. Unskilled movements thus
last for a shorter period of time than skilled labour flows, because links with the home country are
considerably stronger. However, this may result in a skewed population of dependents in the home
country, which can potentially exacerbate dependency on repatriated profits and lack of actual
economic development.
UN Human Development – Skill Flow: A Fundamental Reconsideration of Skilled Worker Mobility and
Development – http://hdr.undp.org/en/reports/global/hdr2009/papers/HDRP_2009_08.pdf
Reasons and Consequences of Migration
The sociological push-pull model is the most popularly used model for migration theory. Push
factors are negative factors in the home country and pull factors are positive factors in the
destination country. Both include environmental, social, economic and political reasons.
Push Factors
Environmental: Environmental degradation, natural hazards, epidemics, pollution, desertification,
famine or droughts
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Social: civil strife, wars, uncomfortable living environment, slavery or forced labour, poor medical
care, no religious freedom, discrimination, poor chances of marrying
Economic: crop failure, farm fragmentation, poor economic prospects, not enough jobs, loss of
wealth
Political: corruption of government, biased government, inefficient public systems, fear or
persecution, lack of freedom
Pull Factors
Environmental: Attractive climates, healthier environment
Social: Better living conditions, more religious freedom, better education, better healthcare, greater
security, links to family, better chances of marrying
Economic: Job opportunities, better industries
Political: Increased political freedom, stable governments
Migration, both internal and international, has positive and negative effects on both receiving and
sending countries.
Demographic Consequences
Perpetuating unevenness in population: A general push-pull trend results in the destination being
seen as very attractive, concentrating much of the population in one area. For example, primate
cities in LDCs (such as Jakarta and Bangkok), sunbelts in the West Coast of US. Migration can have an
effect on population distribution and density, concentrating growth in certain areas while possible
neglecting surrounding declining areas (Myrdal’s model).
Loss/Gain of human resources: Loss of human resources if brain drain occurs. Many professionals
from Hong Kong migrated to Singapore and Canada to escape from China’s takeover in 1997. Africa
loses over 20000 intellectuals annually – in 1988, 700 Ghanaian doctors are practicing in the USA.
The receiving countries, in terms of manpower resource, gain # from this brain drain movement.
Out migration can ease demographic pressures in the origin areas, lowering population density and
its associated problems. For example, rural areas with overpopulation. Conversely, the receiving
areas are affected by increased population pressure – especially shown in primate cities in many
LDCs and their problems such as inadequate infrastructure.
Age-sex selective migrations mean that men in their working age are more likely to migrate. Women
also migrate in search of jobs, but less so than men. Rural areas may suffer from lack of labour and
social protection.
Environmental Consequences
Pollution can result in destination areas due to massive amount of in-migrants to urban areas
without the infrastructure to support them such as gas and water pipings. May result in slum-like
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conditions, squatters and shanty towns with poor sewage and garbage disposal. For example, Los
Angeles or many primate cities in LDCs (favelas in Brazil and bustees in India).
Socio-cultural Consequences
Culture Shock: Social disorientation can result when migrants migrate to larger cities, unable to
adjust to urban life (e.g. rural-urban migrants to Latin-American cities). This may result in
underemployment, unemployment or increased crime rates due to discontent.
Racial/Cultural Clashes: Inevitably, a globalised world has caused individual groups, be it races or
cultures, to come into contact with each other. This may result in friction, causing racial clashes and
discrimination. Examples include Vietnamese migrants with native Australians in Australia and ethnic
minorities who have migrated to Europe (Turks in Germany, Algerians in France, Pakistanis in UK).
Social Polarisation: A separation of a distinct group of the population from others, preventing
assimilation. Migration of retirees from London to Bournemouth, a retirement village, separates the
two age groups, creating a perception of Bournemouth as a town for the old, deterring young people
from moving there.
Ethnic minorities forming their own enclaves and zones (ghettoes, Chinatown, etc) creates spatial
and social polarisation.
Cultural Exchange and Assimilation: A positive effect, where migrants and locals learn to live with
one another and learn from each other.
Impact on National Identity: Has impacts on both the nationhood and identity of the state, as well
as on the individual.
Economic Consequences
Problems of unemployment in destination areas due to increasing supply of labour, competing for
jobs. Ceteris paribus, in the short run this will depress wages and is not beneficial to individuals.
Overall, it can increase competition in society. In the long run, the increased income may in turn
create more jobs.
Alleviate employment vacancies in destination areas if there are unemployment problems, which
can be due to various factors (such as a decreasing workforce due to an aging population, or lower
manual labour jobs which the locals do not want). Blue-collar jobs like construction industries and
domestic workers in Singapore filled up by immigrants.
Repatriation of profits from destination countries back to origin countries. For some LDCs, it is more
beneficial for citizens to migrate and transfer cash back than stay in the country and earn little to no
income at all. For example, over 8 million Filipinos work overseas, sending back $14 billion annually.
The result is that the country is heavily dependent on this income, which may be both good and bad.
Overall, on a societal level, migration cannot be classified as either beneficial or harmful, and it
depends on the context. To the individual, migration is an individual desire to seek better
opportunities elsewhere, outweighing the advantages of staying in the country of origin. The reality,
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of course, depends on the migrant and his situation, although the act of migrating itself might be
seen as beneficial to the individual anyway, if he rationally attempts to maximise his own utility.
Migration – Identity and Nationhood
Identity and nationhood refer to an individual’s sense of belonging to a nation. Nationhood focuses
on how a citizen feels towards his country, while identity focuses more on the community aspect,
how much the people of a nation are connected to each other. Migrants can have an impact on the
identity and nationhood of the locals, and the act of migrating can have similar impacts on the
migrants themselves.
For one, the influx of migrants might dilute the unique culture and identity of the nation. Dubai
boasts one of the fastest migrant flows (33 immigrants entered every hour in 2006). This has
arguably resulted in the Westernisation of the Middle Eastern culture in Dubai. While it is still largely
Muslim, standards of dress and conduct are more relaxed, and casinos are also being built. Practices
such as wearing a hijab are being lost due to migrants from westernised countries like US and
Australia.
A large amount of immigrants may not necessarily change the unique culture of the nation, but
rather such open policies may lead citizens to question whether their nation is made up of citizens or
foreigners, as some Singaporeans feel. Singapore’s high immigration flow has led to a stigma against
foreign workers who supposedly steal jobs from locals, and many question whether the government
is prioritising foreigners at the expense of Singaporeans. As a result, some Singaporeans may feel
alienated in their own country, dissatisfied with the status quo, forming an alarmingly strong push
factor. The high emigration outflow of 26 emigrants per 1000 citizens (second only to Timor Leste’s
51/1000) may also contribute to this erosion of identity and nationhood.
And yet, is has to be said that the assimilation of immigrants into their destinations is very possible.
Looking at colonial Singapore in the 1800s, as well as the melting pot of the USA, there are many
cases where migrants have assimilated into local cultures, strengthening it. The USA, known as the
land of opportunities for many immigrants, provides them with a relatively more secure and higher
quality of life, augmenting their sense of pride and nationhood for the nation.
For migrants, often the very decision of migration itself is a personal choice – and thus would imply
benefits to the migrant if they attempt to maximise their own utility. It thus follows that the pull
factors in the destination country should outweigh that of the home country, or perhaps the push
factors present in the home country are too strong, such as wars or famines. The extent to which
migrants retain their sense of identity as a citizen of their home country, therefore, depends on their
reasons for migration as well as the personal links which remain to their home country – which is of
course empirical and on an individual scale.
Crush et al. (2005: 25) report a survey of roughly 10,000 tertiary-level students from all disciplines in
six southern African countries. Over half of these students predicted that they would emigrate
within five years, mostly to rich countries. They were then asked why they felt this way. Though
income and living standards were the most common responses, almost as common were concerns
about the “HIV/AIDS situation”, “professional advancement”, “a level of fair taxation”, “personal
safety”, “the future of your children”, and “quality upkeep of public amenities”. The motivations of
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migration are linked to the socioeconomic background of the home and destination country, and are
largely what determine whether migrants still retain a link to their home country.
For migrants moving abroad purely to work (for economic reasons), psychological ties to family and
friends remaining in the home country are also a major factor affecting identity, since such ties tend
to retain connections and links to the home country. On the other hand, if migrants bring their
family along with them, it greatly reduces the connections they retain with their home country.
Regardless, psychological costs are largely inevitable, if the destination country is vastly different. It
has been hypothesized that social adjustment in migrants may be influenced by the duration of the
relocation, the similarity or dissimilarity between the culture of origin and the culture of settlement,
language and social support systems, acceptance by the 'majority' culture, access and acceptance by
the expatriate community, employment, and housing. If the individual feels isolated from his or her
culture, unaccepted by the 'majority culture' and has a lack of social support, a consequent sense of
rejection, alienation and poor self-esteem may occur.
The loss of one's social structure and culture can cause a grief reaction, as has been described by
Eisenbruch. Migration involves the loss of the familiar, including language (especially colloquial and
dialect), attitudes, values, social structures and support networks. Grieving for this loss can cause
significant distress or impairment for a certain period of time. Eisenbruch has defined cultural
bereavement as "the experience of the uprooted person - or group - resulting from loss of social
structures, cultural values and self-identity: the person - or group - continues to live in the past,
suffers feelings of guilt over abandoning culture and homeland, and feels stricken by anxieties,
morbid thoughts, and anger that mar the ability to get on with daily life".
Psychosocial changes experienced by immigrants include assimilation, which can be viewed as a
process by which cultural differences disappear as immigrant communities adapt to the majority or
host culture and value system. An individual's cultural identity may be lost during the assimilation
process as he or she moves within the host society. Acculturation, a process that may be voluntary
or forced, requires contact between culturally divergent groups of people and results in the
assimilation of cultural values, customs, beliefs and language by a minority group within a majority
community.
During the acculturation process, both the immigrant and host cultures may change. Changes in
attitudes, family values, generational status and social affiliations can occur in both the majority and
minority cultures as the two interact; however, typically one culture dominates. Cultural changes in
identity can be stressful and result in problems with self-esteem and mental health. Contact
between the immigrant, or minority, community with the dominant or host community may lead to
assimilation, rejection, integration or deculturation. Rejection, in which the individual or minority
group withdraws from the majority group, can lead to apartheid or segregation in extreme cases.
Deculturation, in which the individual or minority group experiences a loss of cultural identity,
alienation and acculturative stress, can lead to ethnocide. Post-migration stresses include culture
shock and conflict, both of which may lead to a sense of cultural confusion, feelings of alienation and
isolation, and depression. Host societies' attitudes, including racism, compounded by stresses of
unemployment, a discrepancy between achievement and expectations, financial hardships, legal
concerns, poor housing and a general lack of opportunities for advancement within the host society,
can lead to mental health problems in vulnerable individuals.
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Acculturation may help the culturally bereaved individual to gain a semblance of equilibrium.
Migrants who experience the loss of their culture and guilt over leaving their homeland may find
that, as the acculturation process proceeds, a sense of belonging in their new homeland occurs. The
majority culture may seem less threatening and more inviting as the individual becomes more
linguistically and socially fluent in this new culture. Social support can ensue in the forms of
friendships, employment opportunities, and medical care. Integration and assimilation can help
reduce feelings of loss and grief as the migrant starts to incorporate aspects of the majority culture.
In acculturation, the interaction of the migrant's culture with the majority culture of the new
homeland is a dynamic and reciprocal process that can result in changes in the broader cultural
group, enhancing the ability of people of the dominant culture to better appreciate and understand
aspects of the immigrant's culture and recognize some of the needs of those who have migrated.
Migration, Cultural Bereavement and Cultural Identity:
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1414713/
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2. Implications of Population Change
Population Composition and Distribution
Overview of World Population Growth and Future Projections in LDCs and DCs
 Discuss the reasons for changes and variations in population composition and distribution.
 Assess the economic, demographic, social and political implications of changes and
variations in population structure and distribution.
 Compare the strategies used in LDCs and DCs in coping with population change.
Population Distribution
Population Composition
An examination of the structure and social make up is known as the study of population structure or
composition. Structure consists of three aspects, demographic, cultural and socio-economic facets.
Population Projections and its Problems
Population Projections
It is the calculation of the number of people expected to be alive at some future point in time based
on current fertility and mortality rates. This calculation can be based on local, regional levels,
national levels or global levels. The length of prediction dates can vary, but normally ranging from 510 years, 20-50 years or 50-100 years. Short term forecasts are known as population estimates, and
long term forecasts are known as population projections.
How Population Projections are Done
Projections and estimates are based on assumptions and principles which are normally most likely to
happen. However, this often results in poor estimates if the time range is large, since variables are
unlikely to be ceteris paribus.
Assumption: BRs and DRs remain constant over time. This assumes the mostly likely course of events,
or the medium projection.
Assumption: Migration data is left out of population projections because of unavailability, inaccuracy
of data and difficulty of defining what constitutes migration. Migration trends are also difficult to
predict. If included, migration data will be left as an appendix.
Assumption: Due to the high likelihood of any single prediction being inaccurate due to data
problems and unpredictable variables, there will normally be three conditional futures calculated
based on 3 constant BRs and DRs. This gives low, medium and high population projection figures
indicating the smallest possible increase, most likely course of events, and the greatest possible
increase in population size respectively. Each is based on different, likely assumptions of current and
future variables.
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Reasons for Population Projections
On a global scale, projections allow people to assess balance between resources and population
growth in order to achieve sustainable development practices in the long run. Important
considerations for the future include the variations in population growth between regions (Asia,
Europe, and America) and how this will affect future economies and policies, and the delicate
balance between resource use and population growth.
On a more localized scale, projections allow governments to plan and provide adequate socioeconomic provisions for their countries at each age structure, such as hospices and homes for an
ageing population, or schools and childcare for a young population.
Governments and Population Projections
Economic Reasons:
Planning fiscal policies – knowing the proportion of taxable and dependent population allows the
government to decide how much to tax and how much to spend.
Calculate future size of working population – helps in predicting future growth rates, the
dependency of the population.
Altering immigration policies – a shrinking working population may be a reason for relaxing
immigration policies so as to boost the country’s economy and flagging workforce.
Social Reasons:
Predicting future dependency ratios and catering to needs of the population composition – creating
suitable policies to deal with an increasingly dependent population, such as in Singapore and Japan
due to low fertility rates and aging populations. For example, focusing on developing elderly facilities
such as hospices, old age homes and better healthcare.
Correcting gender imbalances – especially in Asian countries with a traditional preference for males:
China, India.
Distribution of Resources:
Estimating future demand for food, water and energy – an increasing population will put additional
strain on the country’s infrastructure and resources, such as healthcare, education etc. May be used
to decide whether or not to implement anti-natal policies.
Measuring Environmental Impacts:
An increasing population size will result in more resources such as oil and fuel. Especially in DCs, this
will mean more emissions and environmental impacts.
For LDCs, increasing populations mean more waste produced, and for countries with poor waste
management systems, this will greatly impact their environment.
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Others Interested in Projections
International Agencies – such as the UN, needed to assess the balance between resources and
population growth and lend adequate support to various countries, normally LDCs, to assist their
demographic policies.
Problems with Population Projections
The assumptions made in projections and the complexity of factors often make projections rather
inaccurate, as too often the assumptions distort when they are meant to simplify, and many
unexpected incidents do occur.
1) Social Change – the changing role of women and its effects on fertility and BRs, different levels
and effectiveness of natal policies in different regions, rapid rise of fatal diseases, epidemics
2) Economic Change – unexpected recessions or booms which can affect fertility rates. Prolonged
poverty, hunger and malnutrition in LDCs as well
3) Political Change – wars, civil strife, political unrest will affect BRs and DRs to some extent
4) Demographic Change – migration patterns, greater BRs of migrants, large changes in migration
patterns due to events such as strife or natural disasters
Overcoming Inaccuracies of Projections
Some problems can be reduced if projection rates are continuously monitored and updated based
on shorter time intervals or using differing BRs and DRs over time. Regardless, despite the fact that
projections tend to be more inaccurate the longer the time period, long term projections are still
needed for long term planning and analysis, and after all it is “better to be approximately right than
precisely wrong”.
Greater openness and cooperation between governments and planning agencies can be useful (e.g.
more transparency regarding data) so that projection rates are able to be more accurate.
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Interpretation of Population Pyramids
 Discuss the issues of population dependency.
 Discuss how population structure is affected by changes in family structure, economic change
and gender imbalance.
 Critically evaluate the impact of changing population structures on issues related to the
provision of leisure, employment and health and welfare services.
 Discuss the value of limitations of population pyramids in predicting population change.
Population Pyramids
Population pyramids show the demographic aspects of population composition. The age-sex
composition of a country’s population tells us much about its history, socio-economic status etc.,
allowing us to infer much about its socio-economic level.
Age-sex pyramids show two things: the percentage of males and females in a region on a horizontal
scale, and the age groups of the population in the same region, normally marked at 5 year intervals
on a vertical scale.
A pyramid is a snapshot in time of the country’s population demographic structure, normally one
year. By analysing a pyramid, we can infer and deduce about the region’s past and present
development. We look at three things: the overall form and structure of the pyramid, looking at
individual bars, or comparing between bars (either by age or by gender).
Different Types of Pyramids
There are generally 4 main types of population pyramids corresponding to the 4 stages of the
Demographic Transition Model, but overall there are numerous variations of pyramids which do not
conform to these 4 types.
Stationary Pyramid
Corresponds to the first stage of the DTM. The population as a whole is not really growing due to
both equally high BRs and DRs, approximating zero population growth. Examples include 17th-18th
century Europe. There are virtually no countries overall with this pyramid today, except specific,
small regions within some of the poorest LDCs.
This pyramid has a wide base, meaning that BRs are high. Depsite high DRs due to high IMR,
compensation theory suggests that overall there are more babies being born. Due to the high IMR,
the second bar is normally very short compared to the first bar – few ‘graduate’ to the next age
group because most die within the first 5 years of their life.
The overall shape is irregular, due to the presence of highly infectious and fatal diseases that the
whole population is susceptible to. For example, in 17th century England, many diseases such as
scarlet fever, typhus, measles, smallpox and cholera caused to life expectancy to be only about 33
years. Since diseases affect every strata of the population, dents can be seen across age groups in
26
the pyramid. The overall height is also very short due to low life expectancy. The pyramid is concave
in shape, tapering rapidly as people die.
Progressive/Expansive Pyramid
Corresponds to the second stage of the DTM. The population is growing rapidly as BRs greatly
exceed DRs, often due to a speedy reduction in DRs which is likely due to better affordability,
accessibility and availability of healthcare.
The pyramid has a wide base, like the stationary pyramid. However, it also has a wider second bar in
comparison, as the IMR is drastically reduced.
The pyramid is regularly tapering instead of rapidly or irregularly shaped, as the population in
general can live longer and survive better as compared to the dents and bulges of the stationary
pyramid. This regularity represents a declining DR. However, it shows that population is still
susceptible to mortality as a whole, because the sides are not steep. The pyramid is also taller due to
higher life expectancies.
Most LDCs have already received some form of modern medicine, so most of them would already be
in Stage 2 (Mozambique, Zambia) or Stage 3 of the DTM.
Intermediate Pyramid
This pyramid lies between progressive and regressive pyramids. The wide base is shrinking due to
decreasing BRs, and the pyramid becomes steeper and less tapering due to decreasing DRs. More
people are surviving across the entire population.
This pyramid fits the third stage of the DTM, where many countries such as Singapore and China are
in.
Regressive/Contractive Pyramid
The regressive pyramid fits with the fourth stage of the DTM. The population experiences low BRs,
resulting in a narrower base. Lower DRs mean that the pyramid is generally the most steep, with
most people living till life expectancy.
The pyramid top is now high and wide because more people are living longer lives. This also means
that DRs will increase slightly due to an aging population. Since women biologically live longer than
men, it means that there might be an imbalance of gender towards the top of the pyramid.
A regressive pyramid with low BRs and DRs also approximates zero population growth. ‘Early’
regressive pyramids have wider bases compared to ‘late’ regressive pyramids, due to falling BRs over
time. Examples of countries with regressive pyramids are normally DCs, such as the UK and many
European countries.
Information Extraction from Pyramids
Interpretation of population pyramids – There are at least 7 kinds of information able to be gleaned
from pyramids.
27
1. Percentage of young, adult and aged populations, thus dependency ratios
 Adding up percentages of each of the 3 main groups: young dependent (0-14),
economically active adults (15-64), old dependent (65 and over)
 Depends on the working ages of the country in question. Dependency ratio can thus
be calculated from this information, both total dependency as well as young/old
dependency
2. Current socio-economic levels based on demographic transition
 Looking at the percentage share of the 3 main groups, the stage of the demographic
transition can be inferred
 Less developed, Progressive, Stage 2: {Young 45%, Adult 52%, Old 3%}
 Transitional, Intermediate, Stage 3: {Young 33%, Adult 59%, Old 8%}
 Developed, Regressive, Stage 4: {Young 20%, Adult 64%, Old 16%}
3. Birth rates/Fertility rates
 BRs can be estimated by looking at the bottom bar of the pyramid, the base. A wide
bar indicating high fertility rates can be due to compensation theory, successful pronatal policies or baby booms due to healthy economic growth
 Look at: replacement level. A low BR might indicate an inability for the population to
replace itself, which may result in underpopulation or under utilisation of resources
 Rate of natural increase. A high BR may indicate high increase, which may result in
overpopulation, overcrowding etc.
4. Death rates
 When looking at DRs, there are two components – IMR and deaths other than IMR
 IMR – important indicator of a country’s development, healthcare and sanitation,
derived by comparing the first two age bars
 Other deaths – Diseases, war and famine will cause the pyramid to taper rapidly
since deaths are spread across all groups. This is so for most LDCs. For DCs, a broad
top would mean more elderly, and thus more deaths from old age.
5. Life expectancy
 The taller the pyramid, the higher the life expectancy
6. Sex ratio
 The proportion of males to females.
 At the top of the pyramid, there might be an imbalance since females live longer
 If there is an imbalance at the base, it may indicate a preference for one gender,
such as patriarchal societies in Asia (China, India). This might have implications such
as lack of marriage partners, sex crimes, social imbalance, selective abortions, bride
burnings, infanticides and so on.
7. Migration patterns
 By comparing two regional pyramids, migration patterns can be inferred. It could
indicate internal migration, but not a definite. Migration can be implied if there is a
significant dent, indicating emigration, in one pyramid, and a corresponding bulge,
indicating immigration, in the other pyramid
28
Limitations of Population Pyramids
1. Does not show the cause of changes in BR and DR – needs specific details to understand
their causes. Otherwise, they can only be inferred or suggested.
2. Problems of data collection – undercounting population, does not consider homeless and
mobile people
3. Only divided by age-sex – other factors, possibly ethnicity and race
4. Does not indicate equity, quality of life, population density
5. Does not indicate racial and ethnic imbalances
6. Future predictions are still naturally limited by ceteris paribus assumption – pro/anti natal
policies may be implemented, economic recessions may occur etc.
The Dependency Ratio
The dependency ratio is the age population ratio expressing the dependent population over the
people active in the workforce.
Dependency Ratio = _No. of people aged < 14 + No. of people aged > 65_
No. of people aged 15 to 64
Generally, the higher the dependency ratio, the larger the burden on the economically active
workforce who pay income taxes and contribute to the economy to support the economically
dependent, such as in public healthcare and expenditure.
The ratio is a useful comparative indicator of the average number of people each working member
of the population has to support. However, the age group definitions are arbitrary, subject to change
when taking into account school leaving age, retirement age etc.
Implications of Population Dependency
There are in general two main types of dependency – child dependency and aged dependency,
depending on the structure of the population. Both have different implications on policy making.
For DCs with a high dependency ratio, such as Japan or the UK (50-55% ratio), the main cause is likely
aged dependency due to an aging population. A combination of low birthrates and long life expectancy
means that an increasing proportion of the population is expected to become elderly, meaning that each
individual member of the workforce will have to support more dependents, such as via income taxes.
Policy implications include the need for more and better geriatric care, healthcare for aged diseases, old
age homes, pension schemes, insurance etc. Also, some countries may consider raising the retirement
age, as Singapore has done from 62 to 65. Countries may also like to focus on long-term policies such as
raising fertility rates via pro-natal policies, but these have rarely been successful.
For dependent LDCs (with a ratio of 55-60%) such as India and Bangladesh, this is often caused by child
dependency due to high birthrates. Reasons for this may include cultural reasons or other fertility
variables. This implies a need for better education, more schools, childcare needs, parental benefits etc.
Some countries have extremely high dependency ratios of above 80% such as Angola and Zambia, mainly
due to their active workforce heavily impacted by diseases such as AIDS, along with a particularly high
fertility rate as a result of the compensation effect.
29
Socio-Economic Composition
 Discuss the socio-economic differentials among various ethnic groups.
 Discuss the criteria used to measure inequalities in populations on a global or national scale.
 Discuss the level of inequality that exists between populations and between different sectors
of the same population.
Ethnic Inequalities
Causes of Racial/Ethnic Discrimination and Inequalities
The denial of equal rights is a central feature of discrimination. Most commonly, denial of equal
rights comes from denial of equal access to basic rights, in particular, equal access to a share of
society’s basic resources. Dominated groups frequently suffer poor basic amenities in the form of
housing, health and educational facilities. This may not be the result of legislation discriminating
against them but because of the way market forces and powerful pressure groups work to deny
access.
For example, it is said that in both the US and UK, ethnic minority groups are discriminated against in
the housing market in terms of availability of mortgages and by agents being persuaded not to deal
with ethnic minority families wanting to purchase homes in predominantly white neighbourhoods.
Much more significantly, minorities are often forced to live in deprived areas, such as inner city areas
and areas where provision of facilities is poor. Due to low incomes, it is difficult to move to better
neighbourhoods and enhance standard of living. Active discrimination causes resentment and
alienation into the mainstream of society.
Solving Ethnic Problems
Acts of discrimination based on ethnic differences may decrease over time due to a few reasons.
 The growing influence of international organization to find and address inequalities which
exist within and between countries.
 Improved communication across the globe and increased contact between people is
facilitated by personal mobility.
 Increasing realization of the interdependence between countries as more nations are
integrated into a world system. Disputes arising from inequalities and exploitation of one
group by another can spill over into other areas.
 Increasing emphasis on resolving disputes through discussion with the help of external
mediators rather than through violence or armed struggle.
30
Population Change and Planning






Discuss the links between the Demographic Transition Theory and age structure.
Discuss the various stages of the Demographic Transition Theory.
Apply the Demographic Transition Theory to population growth in LDCs and DCs.
Evaluate the reasons for having pro- or anti-natal policies.
Compare the effectiveness of pro-/anti-natal policies in LDCs and DCs.
Analyse how population growth is affected by government planning.
The Demographic Transition Model
The demographic transition model (DTM) charts the change of a country’s population from high BRs
and DRs to low levels over four stages. Recently, new trends have led to the proposal of 5th and even
6th stages to the DTM.
The DTM was conceptualized in the 1950s based on the consistent demographic experiences of
western European countries which underwent the Industrial Revolution. It attempts to explain a
country’s current socio-economic development based on its current demographics.
Stage 1: High Stationary Stage: High BRs (35/1000), High DRs (35/1000)
In the first stage, population approximates zero growth as both BRs and DRs are high, canceling out
each other.
High BRs of approximately 35/1000
The high BRs are due to a few possible reasons:
31
1. An agrarian society and the need for familial labour in labour-intensive farms, which is true
of medieval England, pre-industrial Europe, or rural regions in Africa.
2. For some communities, the social mindset is that a familial culture reigns, such as in China.
3. Ignorance, unavailability or low level of acceptance against contraception. Some rural areas
either do not have access to contraception, cannot afford it or are unwilling to use it.
4. Inaccessibility of certain areas to education of family planning.
5. Compensation effect – where death rates are high, especially IMR, more are born to make
up for this loss, so some children will survive.
6. Longer fertility rate due to earlier marriages – true of certain cultural beliefs, such as
prearranged marriages in India and China.
High DRs of approximately 35/1000
Normally due to poor healthcare and hygiene, rudimentary medicine and healthcare levels.
Inaccessibility to medicine due to being rural. Not affordable due to being poor.
There are almost no examples of countries today in Stage 1 of the DTM, as medicine and healthcare
has become available to most. Ethiopia has a 39/1000 BR and a 20/1000 DR, showing that DR have
also gone down in most countries worldwide. Only extremely rural and backward areas, such as in
some parts of Africa and India, approximate Stage 1.
Stage 2: Expansionary Stage: High BRs (35/1000), Declining DRs (35 to 20/1000)
Rapid population growth occurs in Stage 2 as BRs remain high while DRs rapidly decrease, increasing
the rate of natural increase.
Rapidly declining DR from 35/1000 to 20/1000
The Industrial Revolution in Europe brought down DRs due to rapid improvements in technology,
facilitating medicine, food production, transport and so on. The shift from an agrarian to an
industrial society improved the standard and quality of life. There was mass employment due to the
factory system and vaccinations greatly improved the situation against the epidemic-rife period.
Generally, this fall in death rates is due to greatly improved healthcare. Today’s LDCs have greater
accessibility to healthcare imports, greatly bringing down DRs.
High BRs of 35/1000
The lag period between fall in DRs and the BRs was largely due to mindset. While decreasing DRs
was easy through medicine and technology, shifting mindsets to reduce BRs takes time. BRs are
driven by deep-seated social factors such as familial labour, community spirit, religion and biological
compensation.
Recent falls in DRs for LDCs were much more rapid than the falls in early Europe. This had the effect
of exacerbating the overpopulation effect.
Stage 3: Contractionary Stage: Declining BRs (35 to 20/1000), Low DRs (15/1000)
At this stage, population increase starts to decrease as BRs fall.
32
Declining BRs to 20/1000
Socio-cultural changes in mindset, increasing affluence as well as cost of living, changing ideas of
family life decreases the BR. This has happened in China and India, both rather traditional in mindset
initially, but has since transformed in terms of social mindsets. Anti-natal policies may also have
played roles in lowering the BR.
Low DRs of 15/1000
DRs continue to fall at a slower, gradual pace as medicine and healthcare becomes more accessible
and affordable to a larger section of the population.
Present day China, Brazil, Argentina and other NIEs fall into Stage 3 today.
Stage 4: Low Stationary Stage: Low BRs (16/1000), Low DRs (12/1000)
Stage 4 also approximates zero growth and minimal population increase, as both BRs and DRs are
low.
Low BRs at 16/1000 and low DRs at 12/1000
Countries reaching Stage 4 of the DTM have completed the transition from high to low levels of BR
and DR. BRs are low due to emancipation and changing roles of women, with women having more
rights, liberalisation and education. Also, higher costs of living means children are seen as a liability
instead of an asset (costs $260,000 to bring up a child in Singapore). Increased access to family
planning, contraception, and a shift to a more urbane mindset in a capitalist society also lowers the
BR.
Low DRs are due to social medical advancements, such as increased availability of child
immunization, advanced medical technology such as chemotherapy and biotechnology and better
insurance.
Most DCs are at least in Stage 4 today – some have even shown new trends which may justify the
need for a 5th and 6th stage.
Possible Stages: Stage 5 and Stage 6
Imaginary Stage 5
Stage 5 is a theoretical stage for many DCs now, as BRs are hovering extremely low around DRs, and
can even go below DRs and replacement level. Countries like Germany and Singapore are
experiencing natural decrease as socio-economic factors drive down BRs even further. This depicts
an inverse relationship with HDI and fertility rates.
Possible Stage 6
The UN discovered that for some countries, TFR increased slightly after HDI hit 0.9, showing a
possible positive correlation at very high levels of development (Maslow’s hierarchy). This is tenuous
at best, and maybe even limited by culture, as the only countries not conforming to this were Japan,
33
South Korea and Canada. Furthermore, the slight increase in TFR is ultimately not able to reverse the
trend of decreasing fertility and is unable to stabilise the population.
Application and Relevance of the DTM
In general, the DTM is useful in classifying countries into categories and explaining their current
socio-economic development with respect to BRs and DRs. However, it should be noted that
different countries naturally have different, place specific explanations for their BRs and DRs that the
DTM cannot explain. The DTM cannot be used to explain demographic histories specifically, since it
is based on England alone. Also, it does not take into account other intervening factors like
government policies.
For most DCs, the DTM is largely relevant to countries completing the transition at the same time as
the UK due to similar histories and migration trends. However, migration is not taken into account
for the DTM, and is assumed to remain stable, while this is unlikely to be the case, due to changing
immigration policies. Also, the possibility of Stages 5 and 6 may render the 4-stage DTM model
outdated.
An interesting point is that some DCs have DRs higher than BRs, and this is the basis of Stage 5.
While it could be due to decreasing BR, it could also be due to increasing DR as a result of an aging
population. For example, Italy’s DR is 10.2/1000, higher than its BR of 9/1000. Its death rate is higher
than Indonesia’s at 6/1000. Better healthcare, medicine and nutrition, along with better education,
affluence and infrastructure, increasing the quality of life and extending life expectancies.
For LDCs, the DTM works only as a classifying tool, unable to reflect many aspects. For one, it does
not indicate the time period the country took to reach their present stage – Singapore took only 30
years to complete the 4 stages, while the original UK-based model assumed that it would take 140
years due to the need for assuming status quo with regards to social and technological advancement.
Also, it does not reflect how long a country will remain in that stage. Certain LDCs like Chad and
Ethiopia have remained in Stage 2 for the past 30 years without much sign of change.
Some countries don’t even fit into the DTM as it is generalized from European countries, while
countries such as Pakistan and Egypt have very different demographics due to cultural differences
(such as religions which forbid contraception, resulting in very high BRs yet very low DRs). It also
does not take into account phenomena, such as HIV AIDS which actually reversed DTM progress in
Sudan and Nigeria between 1975 and 2005, which greatly increased mortality and IMR.
Different histories between DCs and LDCs also make it unable to apply the DTM to LDCs entirely.
Migration policies were laxer in the past, allowing for Europeans to migrate easily, bringing down
BRs quickly than LDCs today. DCs also had smaller population bases in the past compared to large
LDC population bases today. It is more difficult for LDCs to reduce their BRs today.
34
Population Planning – Pro-natal Policies
Country
Singapore
Reasons
 TFR dropped
from 1.96 in
1988 to 1.42 in
2001
 Rapidly ageing
population
(25% by 2025)
 Previous
measures
in
“Have Three or
More”
were
largely
monetary and
ineffective
Policies
 Baby Bonus Scheme and Third Child
Paid Maternity Scheme
 Maternity leave and baby bonuses
 $9000 for second child, $18000 for
third child
 Children
Development
Account:
government matches amount saved
into account up to $6000 for 1st child,
$12000 for 2nd-4th children and
$18000 for 5th child
 8 weeks of paid maternity leave for
working mothers who give birth to
third child up to $20000
 Family
friendly
workplaces
–
initiatives e.g. Work-Life Unit, FamilyFriendly Firm Award
Japan
 Emphasize
work-child care
compatibility
 Public support
for childcare
 Ageing
population
(21% 65 and
above)
 TFR low at 1.57
in 1989
France
 Ageing
population
 Increasingly
dependent
population
 Angel Plan in December 1994
 Cash benefits, work incentives,
childcare incentives, work support for
mothers
 Monthly child allowance of US$100
per child up to primary school children
in 2006
 “Zero Waiting List for Daycares” as a
goal. Daycare enrolment rate rose
from 15.6% in 2001 to 20.3% in 2007
 Childcare Leave Law: 50% of wages
(2006) paid during childcare leave
 Support Plan for Mother’s Re-entry
into Labour Market (2004) –
vocational schools to impart new skills
to women, workshops to help start
businesses
 Pro-natal Package
 Extensive subsidies and bonuses –
families pay less tax in France than
singles/childless couples
 Daycare costs a third as much as other
countries
 Transport concessions for families
with more than 2 children. 50% off
train fares for 1.5 years, 1 year off
work for the mother
 Strong support and protection for
women’s
jobs,
high
female
participation in economy
Effectiveness/Criticism
 Purely monetary policies
are unlikely to work given
as the main factor is
changing social mindsets
 Even so, government
attempts to change these
mindsets are seen as
overly controlling and
decision limiting, making
them seem artificial and
worsening the situation
 SMEs
not
entirely
accepting since small
workforce means missing
employees are important
 Apparently ineffective –
TFR dropped further to
1.11
 Appeared
to
be
ineffective
–
TFR
continued to fall to 1.23
in 2008
 As
usual,
monetary
policies were largely
ineffective
 Childcare incentives only
raised enrolment rate –
previously
un-enrolled
children were enrolled by
parents – no real increase
in fertility rate
 Appears to be effective –
TFR is highest in ageing
Europe, increasing trend
(now 2.02)
 Generally well-received
by the public
 Key factor appears to be
public acceptance of the
government’s efforts –
receptivity is ultimately
what matters compared
to other countries
35
Population Planning – Anti-natal Policies
Country
China
Policies
 One-Child Policy
(1979)
 Restricts
urban
Han couples to
only 1 child
 Rural
couples,
ethnic minorities
and parents who
are
themselves
only children are
exempted
 Flouting the policy
results in heavy
fines of up to 30%
annual income
India
 Largely
government
sponsored antinatal policies to
deal
with
population
increase
 Provision
of
contraceptives
 Family planning
education
Iran
Effectiveness
 TFR fell from 3 in 1980 to 1.8 in
2008
 Overpopulation problems e.g.
epidemics and slums have been
reduced in severity
 Improved healthcare – better
health services for women,
reduction in risks associated
with pregnancy e.g. free
contraception,
pre-natal
classes, ”Care for Girls” program
eliminating
cultural
discrimination against girls
 Economic growth – reducing
demand for natural resources,
maintaining stable labour rate,
reducing
surplus
labour,
reducing exploitation
 Contraceptive use has more than
tripled (13% of married women
in 1970 to 49% in 2009)
 TFR halved from 5.7 in 1966 to
2.7 in 2009
 Affords women a degree of
choice
 Successful implementation relies
on education – higher education
levels
and
economic
opportunities
for
women
possible
 Late 1980s to  TFR dropped from 6.5 from 1975early
1990s,
80 to about 1.71 in 2007
religious emphasis  Usage of legislation to enforce
 Government
was effective – mandatory
declaration: Islam
contraceptive courses before
favoured families
marriage license can be attained
with 2 children
and benefits doled out
 Nationwide
 Advertising/packaging
of
campaign
with
imported contraceptives
introduction
of
contraceptives
Criticism
 Violation of human rights bribery, coercion, compulsory
sterilization, abortion and
infanticide. Quota of 20000
abortions and sterilizations set
for
Huaiji
County
in
Guangdong Province
 4-2-1 problem: increasing
dependency on the working
population in the future –
lower taxes and heavy burden
on economically active, elderly
at risk of little to no support
after retirement
 Problems for the next
generation – ‘Little Emperors’
due
to
overindulgence,
imbalanced sex ratios may
lead to social ills: 117:100
male to female births in 2000
 A large ratio of illiteracy and
the lack of accessibility to
contraceptives limits the full
potential and effectiveness of
the policies
 Effectiveness varies across
regions and states due to
differing levels of literacy and
affluence – Tamil Nadu’s TFR
reduced
to
1.8,
Uttar
Pradesh’s TFR to 3.8
 Legislation was deemed to be
extremely overbearing
 Lack of sustained usage –
discontinued in 2006 by new
president. Can result in
returned
problems
of
overpopulation and associated
effects
36
Population-Resource Relationships




Discuss the factors that characterize overpopulation and underpopulation.
Discuss the relationship between population growth and resource utilisation.
Compare resource use in LDCs and DCs.
Discuss how changes in society result in the changing appraisal of resources and
environments.
 Evaluate hedonist/conservationist approaches on the sustainability of resource use and how
they impact population change and resource use.
Resources are anything that satisfies human wants. Stocks are stores of resources which are
currently unused. Reasons for stocks not being used could be that people are unaware of them
(knowledge problem), don’t have the ability to obtain them (technological problem) or they don’t
see the need to use them yet (socio-cultural situation). When stocks are translated into resources to
satisfy human wants, the region’s resource pool generally increases, allowing it to better support its
population.
There are generally two types of resources. First, there are natural resources such as oil, gas,
minerals and water. Within natural resources, there are renewable resources such as wind, solar
energy and hydroelectricity and non-renewable resources such as coal, oil and natural gas.
Renewable resources can become non-renewable if over-exploitation occurs. It is not so much the
amount of natural resource as the means to tap on these stocks of resources.
Secondly, there are human resources, which are the population. It is important to look at the quality
and quantity of human resources. In order to increase aggregate supply and the productive capacity
of the economy, it is important to improve the quality of the workforce, increase the size of the
workforce or both. Singapore has focused much on supply-side policies such as education and
retraining to improve the productivity of our workforce as we have little natural resources.
Resource distribution varies greatly between countries. Some countries like the USA have high levels
of both natural and human resources, others like Mozambique have good natural resources but poor
human resources, and countries like Singapore and Hong Kong have little to none natural resources
but high levels of human resource.
Carrying Capacity, Optimum Population, Overpopulation and Underpopulation
Carrying capacity is the population size the environment can sustain indefinitely, given the resources
available in the environment, which can change over time due to changes in food availability, water
supply and environmental conditions.
When referring to population here, it must always be viewed in relation to availability of resources,
both human and natural. Population density alone is not a good indicator of overpopulation.
Something interesting to note is that due to increased globalisation and international trade, both
natural and human resources are not restricted to any one country – oil can be imported, and
37
migrations can cause labour to shift from one country to another. Population stress may be
increased or lowered in various countries as a result.
Overpopulation
Overpopulation is a situation where population growth exceeds current resource availability such
that standards and quality of life fall. Overpopulation may be indicated by unemployment,
congestion, pollution, poverty, famine and low levels of social provision, such as in SSA countries
(Sudan, Ethiopia, Rwanda). High rates of natural increase result in depletion of natural resources
such as fossil fuels, food and water, increase in pollution, inability of current infrastructure to
support the growing population.
Absolute overpopulation occurs when all existing resources have been exploited but there is no
corresponding increase in SOL. This concept is largely an ideal because knowledge of all resources is
always imperfect at any point in time.
Relative population is more realistic, occurs when current resources are unable to support present
population numbers i.e. a ceteris paribus situation. However, with increased productivity and better
use of resources, standard of living can be improved. Countries deemed overpopulated are usually
relatively overpopulated – under utilisation of factors of production, poor governance and instability
are all factors leading to relative overpopulation.
Underpopulation
Occurs when population size is too small to fully utilize its resources effectively – increases in
population will normally increase the standard of living of the country as a whole due to increased
human resource. For example, New Zealand has about 3.5 million people, is self-sufficient in
agriculture and also has a wealth of renewable energy resources.
Underpopulation is not perceived to be a serious a problem as overpopulation due to having far less
drastic consequences. However, the low BRs underpopulation implies may lead to an aging
population in the long run (as it is in Canada, Australia and New Zealand), high dependency and
being unable to maximize their welfare.
Optimum Population
A situation where there is maximum utilisation of resources available, achieving the highest SOL
overall possible – a Pareto optimal situation. Since it is also difficult to quantify, optimal population
also remains an ideal concept.
Some countries approximate optimum population, such as Switzerland and other generally highly
developed countries with high GNP per capita, high life expectancies and low IMR due to excellent
medical advances, and an equitable wealth distribution.
Malthusian Theory
Main Ideas
Thomas Malthus argues that:
38
1) Food supply/resources will grow arithmetically while population grows exponentially. There
will eventually come a point where population outstrips food supply, hitting the food ceiling,
resulting in overpopulation and famine.
2) The ‘doomsday’ situation Malthus predicts can be mitigated by preventive/negative checks
as well as positive checks. Negative checks are decision made by people, such as postponing
marriage or delaying having children. Positive checks are caused by environmental/external
factors, such as natural deaths through diseases, malnutrition and famine.
Limits to Growth Model
Inspired by Malthus, neo-Malthusianists such as the Club of Rome came up with similar theories, like
the Meadows Model or the Limits to Growth theory. It was devised in the context of spiraling oil
prices in the early 1970s, emphasizing people’s dependence on oil and finite resources.
The model is pessimistic and Malthusian in thinking, and claims that continued population growth
will lead to dwindling resources. It believes that economic growth is the major cause of global
problems such as environmental destruction. It claims that the solutions are economic and
ecological policies which will shift countries to a zero-growth economy, instating global equilibrium.
Applicability of Malthus’ Ideas
Malthus and neo-Malthusianist ideas have some validity in some SSA countries like Ethiopia and
Malawi, where population numbers exceed current resource pools. While fertility rates are
extremely high (6% above the world average), subsistence farming gains have been unable to
support the population growth.
However, for the rest of the world in general, Malthusian ideas and assumptions can be challenged.
For example, population growth may not grow exponentially due to increasing availability and
accessibility of contraception, increasing costs of living and the changing social status of women. This
is especially so considering the low BRs of many DCs today.
Furthermore, Malthusian ideas do not take into account the exponential growth of technology,
assuming rather unrealistically that technology grows arithmetically. Technology can lead to better
use of resources such as the Green Revolution, increasing the productive capacity of the land and
producing more food. This is the basis for Boserup’s rebuttal to Malthus’ ideas.
Boserup’s Theory
Esther Boserup’s views are anti-Malthusian and she claims that population growth and population
pressure threatening overpopulation will force society to discover new agricultural methods to meet
that increasing need. For example, the Green Revolution and terrace farming in China. High tech
methods such as hydroponics and aeroponics were created to increase productivity.
Overall, improvements in farming technology, accessibility in transport and communications,
recycling, alternative fuel, power and water sources are areas which Boserupian views claim will
continue to meet people’s needs. Julian Simon, an economist, claims that free market capitalism can
solve overpopulation by creating jobs, stimulating production and joining international markets.
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Of course, the key question is why resource pressures are still occurring in places like SSA if
Boserupian views are correct, and also to what extent is production is truly unlimited, because
resources are necessarily scarce.
Neo-Marxist (Structuralist) Theory
Structuralists claim that the fundamental problem between resources and population is a problem
of unequal distribution. There are plenty of resources, just that they are distributed unequally,
benefitting some privileged groups such as the rich or the governments. Although only 25% of the
world’s population lives in DCs, DCs consume 75% of the world’s resources. The USA uses 30% of the
world’s petrol and 35% of the world’s electricity, and is the largest polluter.
Governments may channel resources into inappropriate areas such as military development when
the country is undergoing famine, such as North Korea. Also, corrupt governments divert money
from international aid to line their own pockets, such as the Marcos and Estrada regimes in the
Philippines.
Agricultural development of cash crops under colonialist rule in many LDCs continues today for
export to TNCs. The land is not used for cultivating subsistence crops for the farmers, but cash crops
to sell, of which the primary producers only gain a bit (inspiring the Fairtrade movement). Trade
blocs and unfair protectionist policies like the EU CAP prevents an equitable distribution of food with
the third world.
Furthermore, geopolitical instability in terms of war and civil strife occur much more in LDCs,
especially in African countries. Wars waste resources and refugees do not have access to proper
nutrition. The problem here may be politics, not overpopulation.
Development and Resource Use
Key Terms Related to Sustainable Development
Resource Appraisals are assessments or estimations of the worth, value, or quality of a resource,
meant for the planning and monitoring land use and resource management.
Resource Depletion occurs when raw materials within a region are being exhausted, consumed
beyond their replacement rate. It can be caused by overpopulation, unsustainable resource
extraction methods (slash and burn, deforestation, overmining for oil and minerals).
Resource Management is the efficient deployment of resources when and where they are needed.
The data required for effective management include demand for various resources over a time
period and the ability for supply to match this demand. Resource management also refers to
practices pertaining to maintaining the sustainability and integrity of natural systems and resources.
Ecological Footprint is the measure of the impact of human demand for resources on the Earth’s
ecosystems. It compares human demand with Earth’s ecological capacity to regenerate. It is possible
to use this to estimate how many planet Earths it would take to sustain humanity given a certain
lifestyle (e.g. in 2006 our ecological footprint was estimated at 1.4 Earths, or we use resources 1.4
times as fast as Earth can renew them).
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Sustainable Development
Sustainable development is meant to meet the needs of the present generation while leaving the
same or an improved resource base as a bequest for the future. The needs of future generations are
not compromised while satisfying those of the present. Both economic and environmental
considerations must be covered when planning policies. The relationship between human
development and environment is two-way. While the environment contributes to human welfare
and well being and provides the essential resources, if in the process of economic progress the
environment is damaged, future economic progress will be jeopardized.
China faces a challenge of sustainable development. It faces increasing population pressure, rapid
economic development with lagging environmental controls (3rd largest consumer of energy, land
degradation and soil erosion) and an overuse of basic resources such as water, forests and fish
(deforestation, overfishing, increasing demand for water in industrial and residential sectors).
Agriculture has caused soil erosion and polluted water runoff, industries have resulted in urban
pollution (26% of all deaths in China due to chest or lung illnesses) and a decrease in limited
resources.
Now, it is making conscious efforts to improve the situation. Population growth is largely under
control due to anti-natal policies. Spending on environment protection has increased from 0.7 to 0.9%
of GNP, but 1.5% is needed to control current degradation. Some management measures have been
improved, e.g. replacing outdated coal boilers, rural use of windpower and biogas, sand break
forests to reduce soil erosion. Regulation controls on industries are being introduced, such as
potentially polluting industries being required to pay 30% of total construction costs.
I=PAT
Impact of Human Activity = Population Size x Affluence x Technology
The formula I=PAT was introduced by Ehrlich and Holdren in the 1970s. It is used to understand
some of the factors affecting human impacts on the environment, and originally used to emphasise
the role of population growth on the environment.
Population has been increasing exponentially since the Industrial Revolution. An increase in P will
result in an increase in I, since a population increase will result in demand for greater land use,
resource use and also pollution, ceteris paribus. This can result in habitat loss for other species,
greater depletion of non-renewable resources, and perhaps climate change.
Affluence is commonly measured in GDP/capita. An increase in A will increase consumption of goods,
which can have a variety of impacts – for example, plastic packaging, Styrofoam, crude oil, rare earth
minerals, water etc.
Technology represents how resource intensive the production of affluence is. A reduction in
technology can come about via improved methods, efficiency etc, reducing impacts on the
environment (alternative energy sources etc.). T is likely to decrease over time as research and
development continues. However, if P increases exponentially, then T needs to decrease at double
the rate of population increase. Since P and A have both increased, the impact of a decreasing T has
been lessened.
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The model assists us in understanding the multiple causes of environmental impact and can help in
projections for future environmental change. It is a useful framework for thinking about ways to
reduce our environmental impact on the Earth and forms a useful policy development tool.
However, the different factors are not necessarily independent of each other. Also, a simple
multiplicative and an assumed linear relationship does not really hold in the real world (e.g. doubling
population does not necessarily mean doubled impact). Also, there exist problems with measuring
individual aspects (e.g. GDP per capita measures production, and consumption is assumed. Also does
not take into account inequalities, distribution of wealth within countries and between countries).
Importantly, it allows us to understand the factors which increase or decrease environmental impact,
but not the level at which development is sustainable.
Hedonist vs. Conservationist
Based on population-resource relationships, two different approaches have been developed towards
resource use. The hedonist approach is inherently Boseruptian while the conservationist approach
follows a Malthusian concept.
Hedonist Approach
The hedonist approach seeks to utilize Earth’s resources to benefit mankind. They believe that
“necessity is the mother of invention”, and as population densities increase, human populations are
forced to adopt more intensive methods of food production and supply, often with technological
innovations (e.g. the Industrial Revolution and the Green Revolution). There is no need to worry
about limited resources.
However, some argue that this theory cannot work indefinitely, and that at some point the
population will get large enough that technology alone will not be enough to solve the problem, and
that the environment will be unable to sustain such pressure in the long run.
Conservationist Approach
The conservationist approach seeks to minimize human impact on the earth at the expense of
current development. This approach follows from a Malthusian viewpoint, that population will
eventually outstrip resources, resulting in overpopulation, war and famine. Indeed, parts of SSA
suggest that population growth have far exceeded ability to produce food, such as in Ethiopia.
However, the theory seems too simplistic. Population rarely grows completely geometrically, and
with recent trends growth seems to have slowed. Also, there is merit in the Boseruptian idea of
technological growth, such as developing new farming methods and technology.
Ultimately, while one seeks to maximize human development growth at all costs and the other
wants to achieve minimal environmental impact at the cost of present growth rates, there are many
methods which reconcile the two viewpoints, such as renewable energy resources, hybrid cars and
organic products, which conserve our resources without diminishing development. Sustainable
development seems to be the key here, where we use our resources only at a rate which can be
replenished.
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