Creating Jobs for Equity and Prosperity - A sub-regional Conference on Employment and Social Inclusion in the South East Europe and Turkey Co-organized by UNDP and ILO Skopje, FYR Macedonia, 16-17 April 2015 Summary of main findings and recommendations1 1. Introduction and Background The countries in Southeast Europe and Turkey suffer from chronic low employment rates and high levels of long term unemployment. These labour market challenges are usually attributed to incomplete reform processes, the effects of which have been further exacerbated since 2008 by the global and European economic and financial crises. The countries of the region not only share similar employment challenges, they also share similar regulatory and social policy frameworks. Moreover, they are all engaging in employment and social inclusion issues with the EU, which, in its Europe 2020 strategy as well as its South East Europe 2020 strategy, highlights the priority of stimulating quality employment creation and promoting the inclusion of marginalized groups, both in member and accession states2. Overall, it is evident that if the countries and the sub-region as a whole are serious about embarking on more ambitious, sustainable, job-rich and inclusive growth patterns, they will need to adopt fresh and comprehensive policy reforms and programmatic approaches, that embrace common European (and global) values. To help achieve these aims, a variety of employment and social inclusion policies and programmes have been developed and piloted in the sub-region, in many instances benefiting from UNDP and ILO support. While there is a significant body of literature now available on the various policies and programmes which have been tested, this knowledge has not yet been fully evaluated, systematized, or reviewed for lessons learned. These issues were the subject of a two-day joint UNDP / ILO Conference on Employment and Social Inclusion, held in Skopje on 16-17 April 2015. The aim of the conference was to stimulate an open, evidence-based dialogue to facilitate exchange of experience, and evaluate 1 For further details on the conference agenda, participants, background papers and presentations, please see http://jobs4prosperity.com.mk/ 2 The EU’s Europe 2020 strategy has set a target of a 75% employment rate (among the population aged 20 to 64) by 2020. The Regional Cooperation Council’s Southeast Europe 2020 strategy likewise calls for an increase in the overall employment rate (as a percentage of the population aged 15 and up) from 39.5% to 44.4%. the potential for replicating and scaling up innovative and successful labour-market and social inclusion programming in four thematic areas, and linking these to holistic policy reform processes: i) Employment and social policies for the inclusion of all people into the labour market3 ii) Vocational education and training and skills matching and successful transitions from school to work iii) Youth entrepreneurship iv) Sustainable and green enterprises for job creation The programming and policy context was provided by the EU’s regional and national IPA II framework documents, and the Regional Cooperation Council’s Southeast Europe 2020 Strategy. The conference thus provided a platform for reviewing the latest policy thinking, and counter-positioned this with practical experiences in implementing the labour market and social policy reforms for the creation of more decent jobs. The conference also represented the first step towards the promotion of an effective framework for systematic sub-regional experience sharing and peer-to-peer learning, to promote: i) the replication of good practice models; ii) cross border cooperation; and iii) expanded potential for innovation. A last aim of the conference was to foster partnerships with national and regional partners, cooperation with which is essential for connecting UNDP programming with on-going national and regional policy and programming platforms and narratives. The conference participants included4: ● Senior officials from ministries and technical level experts from line Ministries as well as institutions responsible for delivery of employment services, technical and vocational education and training and social assistance and services from Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, FYR Macedonia, Kosovo*, Montenegro and Turkey attended the conference. ● Development experts and practitioners from regional partner institutions, in particular the Regional Cooperation Council (RCC), the European Training Foundation, DG Near and DG Employment and national EU delegations; ● Staff from UNDP’s country offices in South East Europe (SEE) and Turkey, and from its Regional Support Centre in Istanbul, plus ILO staff from the Decent Work Team and Country office for Central and Eastern Europe, from its Geneva headquarters, and national coordinators; 3 Active inclusion as defined by the EU refers to policies and measures that 'enable every citizen, notably the most disadvantaged, to fully participate in the society including having a job. In practical terms, that means: i) adequate income support together with help to get a job by linking out-of work and in-work benefits, and by helping people to access the benefits they are entitled to; ii) inclusive labour markets – making it easier for people to join the work force, tackling in-work poverty, avoiding poverty traps and disincentives to work; and iii) access to quality local social services which can help people to participate actively in society, including by getting back to work. ' 4 See http://jobs4prosperity.com.mk/ for full list of participants Follow Up: Apart from this summary report, the following actions are being taken as follow-up to the conference: a revised background paper, prepared for the conference, is available on the website. See http://jobs4prosperity.com.mk/ Case Studies of best practices, most of which were presented at the conference, are being documented, and will shortly be posted at http://jobs4prosperity.com.mk/ Partnerships: The EU in partnership with the ILO is setting up an employment/ social inclusion platform for the Western Balkan countries. It will come online at the end of 2015/ beginning 2016. UNDP will join and contribute to this platform. UNDP IRH and the ILO DWT/CO in Budapest have drafted a regional employment project proposal and submitted to RCC/ EU for possible funding under IPA II (covers SEE countres, but not Turkey). The project has four main components, namely (i) labour market governance: enhancing capacities of public employment services, partnerships and user-centred approaches with a focus on vulnerable and hard to employ groups; (ii) innovative programmes to tackle employment of vulnerable groups, including the long term unemployed; (iii) stimulating social economy and green jobs initiatives; and (iv) promoting convergence towards EU and global good practice through peer learning and support. The latter component will have clear links to the EU/ILO platform mentioned above. ILO is implementing a programme on Formalization of the Informal Economy in South Eastern European countries. The programme will strengthen the capacity and commitment of governments and the social partners to design and implement policies and measures that contribute to the formalization of the economy, thus improving the quality, decency and productivity of jobs. Moreover ILO is organizing, with UNDP participation, a conference on green jobs. The aim of the conference is to increase understanding of how the creation of green jobs can play a crucial role in protecting the environment while supporting national economies. Special emphasis will be given to green jobs concepts, tools and current practices, as well as identify opportunities and formulate proposals for green jobs promotion at country level in the Western Balkans by paying particular attention to specific sectors such as waste management, energy supply alternatives and the greening of enterprises. UNDP and ILO have agreed to actively ensure synergies and complementary of activities carried out at the regional and national level within SEE and Turkey. UNDP’s IRH is preparing an employment/social inclusion workshop for the countries of the South Caucasus and Western CIS (currently planned for 27-30 October). The lessons from the Skopje workshop are being used in the design and structure of the Tbilisi event, and IRH will take the lessons learned/ case studies from the Western Balkans to this workshop. UNDP IRH announced at the Skopje workshop the creation of a Development Solutions Team (DST) for employment. Details of this will come on line shortly. Representatives of five country offices have joined the team (Albania, BiH, Croatia, Kosovo*, FYR Macedonia), as has one staff member from the Istanbul International Centre for Private Sector in Development (IICPSD). The DST will organize follow-up internal workshops on selected topics (the first one will be youth employment in the Western Balkans and Turkey), and produce related knowledge products. Details will go online in mid-July. 2. Main Findings In the course of the conference discussions, it become clear that it was useful to summarize findings, recommendations and lessons learned at three different but inter-linked levels. Firstly the global level, where UNDP and ILO as global organisations, and importantly the EU at the European level, could draw on their vast global knowledge repositories and recommend policy approaches which could be applied to the employment/inclusion problems that the region is facing. Secondly, the national level, which concerns employment strategies and inclusion policies conceived and implemented within the region. (All of these have been designed against the background of EU norms and requirements, due to the ongoing accession processes which all of the countries are engaged in). The third, 'micro' level refers to conclusions/ lessons learned from concrete programmes and projects being supported by international organisations, regional governments and non-governmental organisations. This summary uses these three categories, but inevitably there is some overlap. 2.a The ‘macro’ perspective The initial emphasis on ‘getting the growth framework right’ in anticipation that ‘a rising tide will lift all the boats’ has disappointingly ended in jobless growth in the region. It is now broadly recognized that policies aimed at stimulating economic growth (improvement of the business environment, institutional development and investments in infrastructure, market efficiency and competitiveness etc.) are necessary but not sufficient for making progress on employment and inclusion targets. In light of the above, during the first decade of 2000s, international organizations and policy makers shifted their attention from the growth framework, to employment-rich and labour market stimulation policies. However these often remained largely sectoral in their scope and institutional responsibility; i.e. they lacked a comprehensive approach and were often either only partially linked, or completely de-linked from national development strategies. There has been a growing recognition that sustainable solutions require integrated approaches, and alignment of economic and sector policies, employment policies and active labour market measures with policies on social protection, social inclusion, improving the quality of education, skills development, promoting regional development, natural resource management, and disaster risk reduction. Globally, there is growing recognition of the need for active labour market programmes to target specific marginalized groups (e.g. the long-term unemployed, youth). These require more institutional coordination between employment and social protection agencies. Certain specific features of the region have not always been adequately factored into the global or pan-regional solutions put forward by international/European organizations. While issues surrounding jobless growth and job creation represent challenges common to other parts of the world, solutions require coherent and contextualized actions implemented in parallel at regional, national and even the sub-national levels. Four specific features appeared to be insufficiently factored into diagnostics and solutions, namely (i) the implications on supply and demand of the high levels of labour migration and remittances (which affect inter alia household income strategies, labour market supply (quantity and quality) plus a likely impact on raising the reservation wages for those in the originating country; (ii) the high levels of public employment creating dual, if not triple, labour markets with the majority of “good” and secure formal sector jobs being in the public sector, in capital cities or modern sectors, and the other side being vulnerable employment, including the self-employed and unpaid family workers; (iii) the large share of informal employment with a mix of persons unable to move out of informal employment, as well as those with a reluctance to transit to formality, (as employers and employees can collude on informal agreements or unregistered economic units); and (iv) the weak private sector. (for more detail on this, see pp of the conference background paper) The comparative review suggests that beyond the consensus on overall diagnostics and broad priorities, there is no consensus on actual remedies for the poor labour market indicators of the sub-region, i.e. on specific objectives and actions of labour market policies. To reach such consensus would require stronger evidence gathering and stronger dialogue between countries and between government, social partners, and civil society. Fiscal responsibility is an essential dimension to ensure that employment and social protection systems are adequate and viable over the longer term. Getting the right mix of income support and ALMPs is important, but it should be recognized that income support measures may be more important in a recession situation, while activation measures can be more effective in periods of economic recovery. A three legged approach which combines general growth policies, employment policies and a programmatic/project approach to unemployment and exclusion problems may yield more results. In this context, it may be worth exploring more vehicles for cross-country peer cooperation, to identify best practices, and assess potential for scaling up/ replication. (see also micro-level summary) Rather than concentrating on overall models or policy solutions, it may be worth putting more emphasis on the programmatic and project components that are actually working, and adequately coordinating between approaches, to increase demonstrative capacity; these can then be scaled up and possibly replicated in other countries. There are many opportunities opening up to apply integrated approaches that go beyond employment/ social inclusion policies to link up with policies associated with green economy and green jobs creation. These have to be pursued more actively at all levels (macro, meso and micro). 2.b The ‘meso’ level The review showed that governments in all countries of the region are committed towards improving employment indicators. In line with the Lisbon Strategy and later the EU 2020 Strategy, all countries in the region have developed national employment strategies, which to various degrees address issues of specific concern for national labour markets. There is a new generation of national economic strategies and policies as well as investment plans which explicitly nominate employment as a central goal. Investments with high job creation potential are being given priority. In principle, national employment strategies include support for stimulating the demand for labour, and aim to enhance the quality and adequacy of labour supply, and to assist labour market integration and social inclusion of those who are most vulnerable. In practice, there is often a lack of follow-up and cohesion between the different elements of the strategy While national employment strategies are in place in all countries in the region, their design, budgeting, coherence, impact and cost-effectiveness remain insufficiently assessed. Programme evaluations are key in supporting the modification of key design issues in ALMPs. For this purpose, fostering the culture of performance and impact evaluation of the ongoing public policies and programmes is essential for further improvement of employment policies and programmes. Effective implementation of employment programmes is a cornerstone challenge, which further emphasizes the importance of drawing up a comprehensive development agenda for the relevant labour market institutions i.e. public employment service, VET centres, local development bodies, as well as strengthening and rebalancing economic governance for partnerships with the social partners and the civil society sector. Social partners (employers and workers) can and should play a crucial role in promoting social dialogue and designing, and implementing the right mix of employment and social policies that can promote both competitiveness and social justice. Modernization and restructuring of public employment services is vital for improving the operational efficiency of the labour market. PES are increasingly expected to move from passive (registration of job seekers) to active (service provision roles in mediation and activation). Improving job matching, increasing efficiency of job search, ensuring effective implementation of active labour market measures, reaching out and better targeting of the most vulnerable and disadvantage are some of the tasks that will have to be taken on and implemented by PES and other labour market institutions. Implementation of employment policies is often the subject of criticism by the business sector and the public at large. Criticism has centred on the insufficient policy coherence and lack of inter-institutional coordination. Strengthening capacity for labour market management and coordination with other stakeholders in the labour market (including more data collection and analysis) needs to be given far more priority. To foster governance and accountability of labour market institutions, it is important to introduce a system of objectively verifiable indicators for monitoring the performance of employment and social policies. The Balkan Barometer survey fielded by RCC in seven western Balkan countries (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, FYR Macedonia, Kosovo*, Montenegro and Serbia) is one important instrument for capturing public and business sentiments. Monitoring is also an essential part of the SEE agenda and the reform process at the national level. For this purpose, SEE 2020 envisages 150 quantitative and over 200 qualitative indicators to track the policies and governance performance. Problems of measurement and understanding what is happening at the labour market and how they translate into problems of poverty, migration and exclusion remain. The EU-SILC surveys should be implemented as soon as possible throughout the region. The transition to new indicators of poverty and exclusion risk will help better inform inclusion policies in the region and improve capacity for monitoring. As the region moves forward, employment solutions and active labour market policies will increasingly have to be sought within the sustainable development framework and aligned with policies for poverty reduction, education, regional development and natural protection (especially water) and disaster risk reduction. A growing body of evidence shows the potential employment benefits of investments in energy efficiency, renewables, waste management, ecotourism and greener forms of, and skills for, production. Ensuring resource efficiency and transiting to green growth represents a large restructuring challenge, which need not necessarily pose a threat to jobs, but on the contrary requires informed management to ensure that the potential for job creation is realized. For example, reductions in fossil fuel subsidies, higher taxes and fees on carbon emissions and water use can broaden the fiscal space, and also compensate for reductions in taxes on labour to stimulate demand and boost overall employment rates. Entrenched employment patterns and duality are leading to increasing inequalities. Many of those excluded from the labour market are not being helped by traditional ALMPs, due in part to design, but also to chronic under-funding. Bearing in mind recent experience within the region which shows that ALMPs which focus on marginal groups can be especially effective in raising employability and increasing labour force participation, efforts needs to be made to create an optimal ALMP mix, taking into account the needs of vulnerable groups, as well as being effective partners for employers and job-seekers in general. Most countries in Southeast Europe already have comprehensive social protection systems, however gaps in coverage and sustainability exist. Social inclusion strategies need new forms of social assistance and social service reforms to reach out not just to the traditional categories of marginalized populations, but also to the long term unemployed. 2.c The micro level This concerns lessons learned from implementing concrete programmes and projects in the four key areas discussed in the conference sessions: a) improving employability of discouraged workers and vulnerable groups; b) youth employment; c) vocational education and training systems, life-long learning for addressing skills mismatch; d) promoting green jobs through social dialogue and strategy development. Peer-to-peer learning is an effective way to share information and experience related to active labour market and social inclusion programmes in the region. Hence, it is important to enhance the know-how, but also to “know who knows”, and to know partners with whom certain policies and programmes can be effectively implemented; While countries have unique challenges and there is no magic bullet to address employment challenges, there is expertise, experience and commitment in the region and repository of good practices of employment and social policies and programmes that have yield results. In this regard, it is important to identify the “stars” among programmes and projects that are working, demonstrate results, can be scaled up and probably replicated in other countries either under IPA II or from national funds. In addition, it is very important to create new instruments for peer learning, ideally under the auspices of RCC and in cooperation with diverse development partners, including exchange of information, policy ideas and best practices inspired by the Open method of coordination of the EU applied at the regional level. These new instruments could include mutual learning programmes i.e. peer reviews of best practices, SEE employment, skills and social policy observatory as well as joint policy platforms for policymakers. The recently launched dialogue on Employment and Social Reform Programmes could also serve as a platform for promoting reforms in employment and labour market and social policies in the pre-accession process, but also as a platform for exchanging experience, good practices and evidence based policy dialogue among enlargement countries. Programmes targeting vulnerable groups with low activity and at risk of exclusion should get a more prominent place in the portfolio of ALMPs, given the increasingly social dimension of the challenges countries faced. Patterns of joblessness and exclusion are particularly entrenched among certain ethnic groups, women, people with disabilities, long-term unemployed prevent several generations to access labour market and ensure greater inclusion. A well targeted ALMPs and social economy initiative provide opportunity to tackle social challenges, also through business lens. Such programmes not only contribute to creating jobs, but also promote the EU values and principles of convergence, fairness and democratic change. It is crucial, however, that programmes are financed by funds secured nationally, reflecting the national hierarchy of priorities in which equity considerations come first. Otherwise, due to often unstable and erratic funding flows, if external funding is dominantly used to support the employment and inclusion of vulnerable groups, the societal gains from these intervention can be limited and temporary. Examples of good practices identified, included measures to support social entrepreneurship and employment of persons with disabilities, as well as advances in the overall function of ALMPs due to new service models introduced by Public Employment Services, and to the introduction of programs ensuring coverage of vulnerable groups,. There are several interesting peer examples related to the involvement of private sector in the programmes targeting vulnerable groups, especially disadvantaged youth, representing good examples of corporate social responsibility. Given the scarcity of good private sector jobs in the region, these practices deserve to get more public attention and institutionalized support. Also, the production of common tools and guidelines could serve to provide benchmarks, and also allow countries to benefit from economies of scale. Programmes targeting youth unemployment, supporting the school to work transition and vocational training for the young have been widely promoted in the region. UN agencies have supported these activities within ‘joint programmes’ in almost all countries of the region. Joint programmes require extensive planning, careful design and they tended to target the more vulnerable youth. Some governments have also invested significant resources, but their focus was on school/university to work transition and they have been less focused on vulnerable youth. A number of impact evaluations have already been conducted, and show two valuable lessons: on the one hand, comprehensive programmes reinforce each other, and on the other programmes including specific targets on vulnerable youth tend to have stronger net impact. The EU has also introduced a number of policy actions and initiatives, among which the Youth Guarantee is the most prominent. The Youth Employment Package represents the follow-up to the actions on youth laid out in the wider Employment Package and includes: a proposal to EU countries to establish a Youth Guarantee – adopted by the Council in April 2013. The Youth Guarantee aims to ensure that all young people up to the age of 25 – whether registered with employment services or not – receive a quality offer for a job, continued education, an apprenticeship or a traineeship within four months of leaving formal education or becoming unemployed. The European Alliance for Apprenticeships also looks at the ways to reduce obstacles to mobility for young people. Given the broad range of material and local experiences, and also the availability of new instruments, it would be useful to organize a separate workshop dedicated to the topic of youth employment, sharing experiences, lessons learned and process and net impact evaluations of youth programmes in the region. Poor skills are a major barrier to successful labour market outcomes. The prolonged transition and economic restructuring caused the skill mismatch to become more pronounced in the region than in the developed economies, contributing to high levels of long-term unemployment. The challenges related to the skills mismatch were temporarily side-lined due to the diminishing demand for labour as a consequence of the prolonged economic crisis. However, employers’ surveys single out the lack of adequately-qualified labour and skills as an obstacle for their growth. For example, the recently conducted RCC Balkan Barometer, shows that 25% of companies have vacancies that are hard to fill, while 29% of companies consider that skills that the workers have do not meet their needs. Employer surveys find the lack of soft skills to be the most pressing problem; however, in the longer run, with the expected recovery in the demand for labour and diminishing supply of new entrants, skills gaps will most likely widen for many occupations, especially in the modern services sector and quite likely in some industrial sectors. This issue will have be studied further in connection with the skills mix of migrants leaving the country, and the reservation wage for those staying behind. All SEE countries and Turkey have commenced some form of reforms towards a more demand-driven and learning outcome-based VET system. VET systems have dual objectives i.e. to deliver labour market demand and to achieve broader social policy aims. In this, efforts fostering cooperation modalities with businesses and other stakeholders for improving labour market information and expanding knowledge of future skills needs, promoting entrepreneurial and on the job learning and career guidance and counselling to enable efficient transition on the labour market are essential. VET reforms are also instrumental to fostering inclusive labour markets and better targeting of vulnerable groups (Roma and people with disabilities) in education and training system, which has been be singled out as a key source of inequality. The inspiring examples presented at the Conference on engaging the private sector in skills development for better employability, represent valuable experiences which deserve further attention and analysis to identify opportunities for replication and scaling up in other countries of the region. There is an increasing understanding that the transition to a greener business model is not a ‘luxury’ any longer or an “optional”. Moreover, it has been shown that the switch to more sustainable consumption and production patterns, and to more resourceefficient economies, can have positive impacts on growth, productivity and employment. Examples within the region of efforts to create decent green jobs are still rather limited. However, there are some emerging good practices, including UNDP’s experience of building up a carbon neutral tourism sector, covering eco- and agri-tourism, energy efficient transport and accommodation. ILO’s experience in promoting recyclable waste collection in Serbia is another example. These provide only a glimpse of the untapped potential for job creation from greening the economy. Green jobs provide the link in addressing the dual challenge of environmental sustainability and social inclusion through decent jobs and labour market participation. Skills forecasting and investment in skills development will be necessary to ensure future employment in green jobs, since the transformation towards greener economies will entail re-skilling of existing jobs, substitution of employment, development of new skills and additional jobs, but also the disappearance of obsolete ones.