Urbanization and Industrialization in Central Asia: Looking for solutions
to key development problems
Central Asian countries today practice a “concentration model” of urbanization, under which population and economic growth are centered in big cities, as the region becomes increasingly cognizant of the need to shift from an agrarian
to an industrial-agrarian type of economy. Cities and their agglomerations under this new economic model must act
as drivers of growth, but they are having trouble handling the massive influx of people from underdeveloped areas.
This economic transition requires better management of urbanization and industrialization processes.
Most of Central Asia’s modern cities developed during the
Soviet period and were subordinated to the command economy directed from Moscow. After the collapse of the USSR in
1991, the Central Asian were primarily agro-industrial economies with predominantly rural populations.
Long-term development challenges
Central Asia is a dynamically growing region, but it faces a
host of long-term challenges.
1. Demographic growth. On January 1, 2012, the estimated
population of the five Central Asian countries was 64.6 million, 30.7 million of whom (or47.4% ) lived in urban communities. According to UNDESA estimates, the region’s population will reach 71.4 million by 2025 and 82 million people
by 2050. The urban population will increase by an average of
1.51% until 2050, outstripping overall population growth,
and will amount to 55.2% by 2050.. The rural population
growth rate is expected to decline from the current 1.1% to
0.46% in 2025 and to 0.77% in 2050. The most rapid population growth is expected to occur in Uzbekistan, Tajikistan,
and southern Kyrgyzstan, while increases in Kazakhstan
should be relatively small. The region’s population will remain relatively young – the average age will be about 26,
while the able-bodied (15-64 years of age) share of the population will average 65-67%, meaning that the pressures on
the labor market will continue for the long term.
2. Natural geographical constraints. The limited supply and
uneven distribution of water and land resources make extensive agricultural development impossible. Moreover, intensification of agriculture results in fewer employment opportunities in rural areas. The region’s countries have managed to
diversify their economies and solve food-distribution probFig. 1. Urbanization in Central Asia, 1926-2010.
70 000
46%
43%
Urban development issues
The Soviet period saw significant growth in Central Asia’s
urban population,, the creation of new cities, an expansion of
the urban infrastructure and growth of extractive industries.
The evacuation of industrial enterprises from other Soviet
republics to Central Asian states during the Second World
War had a major impact on urbanization and industrialization. Between 1940 and 1960 the urban population doubled,
and industrial production increased fivefold.
The newly created cities, however, were predominantly
“monocities,” or single-industry towns, which had narrowly
defined objectives that were tied more to cities and industries in other former Soviet republics than to the local economy. This caused major imbalances in the spatial development of Central Asia, thereby limiting the ability of cities to
adapt to the new economic environment following the colFig. 2. Population, ages 15-64 in Central Asia in 2025.
50%
80000
45%
42%
60 000
41%
38%
45%
70000
40%
60000
50 000
35%
30%
40 000
24%
30 000
20 000
lems. Most of the economic growth in Central Asia, however,
derives from raw materials.
Central Asia’s countries are now facing the challenge of transitioning from an agro-industrial to an industrial-agrarian
development model, which requires cities to play a bigger
role as economic and industrial drivers.
3. Rising migration to the cities. Excess manpower is flowing
from the countryside to the cities in every country of the
region, a process that has already increased pressure on the
labor markets and infrastructure in the cities. Until now, the
lack of employment opportunities in rural areas was offset by
external labor migration. In the long run, internal migration
will grow and, consequently, there will be growing pressure
on cities to absorb the surplus manpower. But their current
capacity to drive urbanization is limited.
13%
50000
25%
40000
20%
30000
15%
20000
10%
Городское население, тыс. чел.
Казахстан
Кыргызстан
Таджикистан
Доля городского населения, % (правая шкала)
Туркменистан
Узбекистан
Все население Source: For 1926-1989, various sources; for 1990-2010 - World
Urbanization Prospects-2011, UNDESA
Source: World Urbanization Prospects-2011, UNDESA
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
Сельское население, тыс. чел.
0
2000
2010
1995
2000
1990
1990
1985
1989
1980
1979
1975
1959
1970
1939
1965
0%
1926
1960
0
10000
1955
5%
1950
10 000
Fig. 3. Arable land per person in Central Asian countries,
km2
14,00
Fig. 4. Urban population distribution in Central Asian countries in 2025. *
25 000
70%
63%
12,35
12,00
60%
11,37
20 000
2010
2025
50%
10,00
15 000
40%
8,00
6,47
6,00
10 000
5,48
30%
22%
20%
15%
5 000
4,00
10%
1,99
1,67
2,00
0,690,56
0,970,83
0,00
Казахстан
Кыргызстан Таджикистан Туркменистан
Узбекистан
Source: World Development Indicators, World Bank; World
Urbanization Prospects-2011, UNDESA
lapse of the Soviet command economy.
Central Asia has 273 cities, which have a total population of
about 24 million. The largest urban population is in Uzbekistan (8.95 million. or 37.6% of the total population), followed
by Kazakhstan (8.89 million, or 37.4%); Turkmenistan (2.5
million, or 10.7%); Kyrgyzstan (1.88 million, or 7.9%) and
Tajikistan (1.50 million, or 6.3%).
The majority of urban communities however, are small and
medium towns with populations of not more than 100,000,
mostly between 10,000 and 50,000. Such towns account for
about 16% of the urban population in Kazakhstan; 25.4% in
Kyrgyzstan; 35% in Tajikistan; and about 35% in Uzbekistan.
Central Asian countries practice a “concentration model” of
urbanization, under which population and the economy are
centered in big cities. Meanwhile, small and medium towns,
despite their numbers and social importance, make only a
meager contribution to economic development.. Between
2000 to 2010 alone the population of the capitals and big
cities of Central Asian countries increased by an average of
19.4%. Dushanbe is a striking example – about 48% of Tajikistan’s urban population lives there.
At the beginning of the 1990s the Central Asian countries had
a relatively developed urban infrastructure, particularly in
big cities. There were, however, a number of weaknesses:

from the 1970s on, the growth rate of the capacities of
infrastructure facilities lagged far behind growth rates of
urban population and economic growth;
 the infrastructure maintenance system was centrally
funded and subsidized;
 the infrastructure was antiquated, and infrastructure
organizations had no incentive to economize and introduce new technologies;
 in most single-industry cities, infrastructure support was
dependent on one or two dominant enterprises that
funded it.
This system could not be sustained, especially in a market
economy. Today the infrastructure in every Central Asian
country (gas, water and electrical supply and sewage systems) is badly worn out, and investment in its overhaul is
inadequate. Despite the efforts to implement administrative
reforms, the region’s countries have failed so far to develop
efficient urban governance systems. As a result, the ability to
6 813
4 507
19 319
1-5 млн. чел.
0,5-1 млн. чел.
менее 0,5 млн. чел.
-
0%
Население, тыс. чел.
Доля городского населения, % (правая шкала)
* - assuming the current structure of resettlement
Source: World UrbanizationProspects-2011, UNDESA
modernize the urban infrastructure is limited, and, more
broadly, so is the capacity of cities to drive spatial development.
Prospects of spatial development
Every country in the region, with certain variations, is undergoing profound economic, political and social transformations. In the medium and long term the success of these
processes will depend on industrialization and urbanization
which can be effectively managed. The region’s governments
are implementing comprehensive programs aimed at stimulating the processing industries and developing cities. However, these policies seldom factor into the regional dimension; they are oriented more toward the country’s internal
situation than toward constructing region-wide structures
that could integrate specific sectors of national economies
with each other. As a result, industrial development programs and projects that are localized within national borders
will only have a limited effect.
The socio-economic and political-administrative reforms that
took place in Central Asia during the transition period were
based on different models. As consequence, different political, economic and institutional systems took shape. Implementing common regional policies on spatial development
that focus on cities will require that these disintegrative factors be resolved.
New, integrative approaches must be sought to carry out
industrial and transportation-logistical projects, establish
cross border cooperation zones, etc. In this context the Central Asian states face a formidable task – to find sectors, initiatives and concrete projects that will enable national development strategies to gradually become interconnected.
These strategies must include a major role for cities and agglomerations as centers of development as well as of the
creation of political, economic, infrastructural and other conditions for expanding cooperation among urban areas of
Central Asian states.
* This is an executive summary of a 19 000 words paper that
provides detailed overview and analysis of urbanization, industrialization and related integration issues in Central Asia that
could serve as a good example for many landlocked African
countries.