ATTN: Mill Creek, PA
RE: claim number 1
Data/Location of Loss (01/09/08 in Mill Creek, PA)
Dear Mr. / Ms.,
As you requested, I have reviewed the weather conditions for Mill Creek, PA on January 9,
2008. In order to determine with a reasonable degree of meteorological and scientific certainty the weather conditions in Mill Creek, Pennsylvania, I examined official Skew-T plots with temperature, dew point, and wind speed observations released twice a day from the University of
Wyoming at the following locations: Pittsburg, PA and Buffalo, NY. Hourly national radar images of base velocity from January 9, 2008 were inspected from the National Climatic Data
Center. In addition, wind speeds from the Pennsylvania State Climatologist Archives were examined. Lastly, the NWS Storm Prediction Center Surface Analysis and SPC Surface Analysis was inspected. It should be noted, errors can be found in data observations allowing numbers to be slightly wrong. The error rate for wind speed ranges from +3 to -3 mph and wind direction varies from +10 to -10 degrees.
January 9, 2008 consisted of strong winds in the early morning hours. A low pressure system moved through to the north of Mill Creek in Canada. With this low a cold front had also begun to move through the area by 4 AM. The combination of the low and cold front is a good indication for high wind speeds. Winds blow counterclockwise around a low, indicating that winds would be blowing from west to east in Mill Creek, and fronts are placed in troughs. The cold front attached to the low was placed in the trough which also brought cold air advection. For any type of advection to occur there must be a substantial wind speed and there was in the early morning of January 9 th
. The cold front that moved through the area allowed winds to change direction from an almost south to north wind to a westerly wind and increase wind speed which averaged at 24 knots from 1 AM to 12 PM. Looking at the reported wind directions from the Pennsylvania
State Climatologist Archives the front specifically passed through from 2 AM to 3 AM. At 3 AM the average and max wind speed and max wind gusts where at their peak; reporting at 29, 32, and
52 knots. In addition, Mill Creek is located off of Lake Erie. Winds crossing a body of water also allows for higher wind speeds. There is less friction for winds to encounter across a body of water as opposed to blowing across land where it can be slowed down by buildings and various other obstructions (trees, hills, etc.).

Time
1 AM
2 AM
3 AM
4 AM
5 AM
6 AM
7 AM
8 AM
9 AM
10 AM
11 AM
12 PM
RE: claim number 1
Mill Creek, PA is located in Erie County at the northwest tip of Pennsylvania off of Lake Erie. Latitude 42.1500° N,
Longitude 80.0997° W.
Image 1 Mill Creek, PA (Google Maps: https://www.google.com/maps/place/Mill+Creek,+Pennsylvania/@42.0981296,-
80.0717363,7z/data=!4m2!3m1!1s0x8832804118935867:0x57664d24347b72f2 )
Table of Weather Conditions In Erie, PA
(Pennsylvania State Climatologist Archives)
Temp
60
59
55
51
43
41
41
41
42
41
39
41
21
27
20
25
28
29
19
31
Average
Wind
Speed
19
21
23
19
Max Wind
Speed
19
28
32
20
32
21
23
20
21
27
20
25
26
38
52
35
48
38
34
38
42
36
31
36
Max Wind
Gust
Average
Wind
Direction
180
190
252
230
255
260
260
250
250
250
250
250

A local NEXRAD is not stationed in
Erie County therefore, nearby radar images were observed. Image 2 shows the wind speed from
NEXRAD stationed in
Buffalo, NY. At
1:55 AM winds were blowing from west to east at 64 knots.
Image 2 Wind Speed at 1:51 AM in Buffalo, NY (NEXRAD)
Image 3 (Wind Speed from NEXRAD in Buffalo, NY at 3:29 AM)
Image 3 also shows the wind speed from
NEXRAD stationed in Buffalo, NY.
Although wind speeds began to decrease by 3:29
AM, they were still considerable ranging from 30 to 50 knots.

Image 4 shows the wind speed from NEXRAD stationed in
Pittsburg, PA.
The wind speed is cut off by Mill
Creek but can be interpolated to be in the range of 64 to 50 knots at
1:57 AM
Image 4 (Wind Speed from NEXRAD in Pittsburg, PA at 1:57 AM)
The University of Wyoming’s
Skew-T at 7 AM had a wind direction of 260 degrees at the surface meaning winds were blowing from west to east. In addition, wind speed was 20 knots at the surface and up to 40 knots 2 meters up into the atmosphere at 7
AM in Pittsburg. The dewpoint and temperature profiles on the skew-t also indicated a near saturated atmosphere which allows for rain.
Mill Creek is 123 miles from
Pittsburg.
Image 5 (Skew-T from University of Wyoming archive: http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgibin/sounding?region=naconf&TYPE=GIF%3ASKEWT&YEAR=2008&MONTH=01&FROM=
0912&TO=0912&STNM=72520 )

In Buffalo NY, conditions were somewhat similar at 7
AM. Wind direction was 250 degrees which again was a westerly wind. At the surface winds blew at 30 knots. Again, the dew point and temperature profiles are very close to each other at the surface which indicates possible rain. Mill
Creek is 104 miles from
Buffalo.
Image 6 (Skew-T from University of Wyoming archive: http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgibin/sounding?region=naconf&TYPE=GIF%3ASKEWT&YEAR=2008&MONTH=01&FROM=
0912&TO=0912&STNM=72528 )
The SPC Surface Map at 7
AM also showed similar conditions. All winds were westerly on the west side of
Pennsylvania as a cold front moved through. Wind speed in Pittsburg was reported at
25 knots and 35 knots in
Buffalo, NY. The tight packing of the height lines and winds crossing them indicated a strong cold
Image 7 (SPC Surface Map at 7 AM: advection which also allows http://www.spc.noaa.gov/obswx/maps/ ) for strong winds.

Another surface analysis of winds at
4 AM was archived by the NWS
Storm Prediction Center’s surface analysis. Winds were 20 knots in
Pittsburg and 45 in Buffalo, NY.
Again, the cold advection also allows for strong winds.
Image 8 (NWS Storm Prediction Center Surface Analysis at 4 AM: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/archives/web_pages/sfc/sfc_archive.php
)
Certification
I certify that the above information is true and accurate and that any estimations, interpolations or assumptions that have been made were done so with expert accuracy by a professional meteorologist. Additionally, I reserve the right to amend these conclusions made herein upon further discovery of meteorological data.
Veronica K. Dolan
Veronica K. Dolan
(Meteorologist/Forecaster)