Northamptonshire County Council JSNA

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2014
Northamptonshire County Council:
Demography Needs Assessment
Northamptonshire County Council
Business Intelligence and Performance Improvement
Public Health
October 2014
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Contents
1.
Introduction ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 5
2.
Population: the local picture................................................................................................................................................................................................... 9
2.2 About Northamptonshire: Who are we? ............................................................................................................................................................................. 11
2.3 Long term population predictions ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 12
2.4 Historical Population Growth/ Change ................................................................................................................................................................................ 14
2.5 National Comparison ........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 18
3.
Births .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 19
4.
Mortality ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 21
4.1 Potential years of life lost .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 30
4.2 Premature Deaths ................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 30
5.
Life expectancy .................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 32
6.
The difference in births and deaths .................................................................................................................................................................................. 35
7.
Spatial Distribution in Northamptonshire ........................................................................................................................................................................ 36
7.1 Location and distribution of Children in Northamptonshire ........................................................................................................................................... 39
7.2 Location and distribution of Young Adults in Northamptonshire.................................................................................................................................... 41
7.3 Location and distribution of older people in Northamptonshire .................................................................................................................................... 43
8.
Ethnicity and Place of Birth ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 45
9. Socio-Economic Deprivation ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 52
9.3 District level deprivation ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 56
9.4 Small area change in detail .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 58
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10.
Children.............................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 69
10.2 Children in ethnic groups ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 73
10.3 Children with Special Educational Needs........................................................................................................................................................................... 74
10.4 Looked After Children ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 76
10.5 Young People Not in Education Employment or Training ................................................................................................................................................. 78
10.6 Children with disabilities .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 79
11.
Young Adults...................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 81
11.2 Socio-Economic Demographics of Young Adults ............................................................................................................................................................... 84
12.
Older People ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 86
12.2 Critical groups for service demand amongst older people ................................................................................................................................................ 88
12.3 Dementia............................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 92
13.
Minority Groups / Groups at risk of exclusion ................................................................................................................................................................. 94
13.2 Black and Minority Ethnic Communities ............................................................................................................................................................................ 96
13.3 People with disabilities .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 100
13.4 Carers in Northamptonshire ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 102
13.5 Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual and Transgender .......................................................................................................................................................................... 103
13.6 Traveller and Gypsy communities .................................................................................................................................................................................... 104
13.7 Offenders ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 105
13.8 Asylum Seekers and Refugees ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 108
14.
Conclusions ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 110
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Appendices .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 114
Appendix 1: Population structure: County, Districts and Boroughs ........................................................................................................................................ 114
Appendix 2: Clinical Commissioning Group registered populations........................................................................................................................................ 119
Appendix 3: Job seekers allowance: Claimants by age groups under 35 and under 25 .......................................................................................................... 123
Appendix 4: Mid 2013 Population estimates for Northamptonshire and Districts in five year age bands ............................................................................. 125
Appendix 5 Data Sources ......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 142
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1. Introduction
Local authorities are required by The Local Government and Public Involvement in Health Act 2007 to produce a Joint Strategic Needs
Assessment (JSNA) of the health and well being of their local community. Through the JSNA local authorities are expected to consider the
needs of their populations resulting in effective commissioning of services to meet these needs.
Current policies aim to ensure that services are provided more flexibly, better supporting the needs of local communities, and are more
effective at targeting the causes of health problems by intervening at much earlier stages. In order to support this challenging agenda it is
essential to have a clear understanding of the needs of the whole population and the wider determinants of health, from the perspectives of
the NHS, the local authority, and other partner organisations, such as the Police and Housing support services operating in the area.
This chapter focuses on demography; analysing the size, structure and distribution of the population of Northamptonshire as well as spatial
and temporal changes in response to births, deaths, migration and ageing. The critical questions asked throughout this chapter are who and
where are the population of Northamptonshire and how do these specific demographics translate into existing or potential service demands.
1.1 Wellbeing and population health: why is understanding demography important to Northamptonshire?
Health is determined by a complex interaction between individual characteristics, lifestyle and the physical, social and economic environment.
Many experts (Dahlgren & Whitehead 1993, Bunker et al. 1995, McGiniss et al. 2002 and The Canadian Institute of Advanced research 2012 –
see 1.2 and 1.3) assert that these broader determinants are more important than health care in ensuring a healthy population. The wellbeing
of a population and facilitating this through encouraging and supporting healthy lifestyles and communities is therefore as critical an activity in
the prevention of debilitating health conditions as the provision of effective clinical care.
The range of factors contributing to both individual and collective wellbeing is significant and occurs across a number of scales, from
overarching macro conditions to highly localised behaviours and individual conditions, choices and genetic predispositions. Whilst health care
and the infrastructure directly associated with this make a strong contribution toward the general health of a population, social-environmental
factors are considered more significant. As a result, variations in the wellbeing of communities and individuals can display significant
differences at highly localised levels due to specific conditions, choices and cultural norms.
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Variation in conditions may be rooted in a number of areas. Economic hardship and socio-economic deprivation are highly correlated with
poor health1. The post-2007 recession and the slow recovery, initially in employment and latterly in sub-inflation earnings, may seriously
threaten individual and family wellbeing; similarly it may compound institutionalised levels of deprivation emerging from an ongoing national
programme of economic transition and resulting in marginalisation. It is very difficult to predict how the global, UK and Northamptonshire
economies will develop and the overall effect this will have on employment and income; trends in the transition of national economy, the form
of employment to which the county’s labour force has access, and the polarisation of employment demands and earnings will however affect
not only demand for services but also the type of conditions requiring support.
1.2 Tackling inequalities in health2
1
2
http://www.kingsfund.org.uk/time-to-think-differently/trends/broader-determinants-health
Source: Dahlgren, G. and Whitehead, M. (1993) Tackling inequalities in health: what can we learn from what has been tried? http://www.kingsfund.org.uk/time-to-thinkdifferently/trends/broader-determinants-health
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1.3 Research findings about the broader determinants of health compared3
Increased levels of education are strongly related to improved health. This may be due to a greater awareness of health issues and the
management of personal health, better access to or involvement in exercise or outdoor activities, or a more balanced and healthier diet.
Increases in the number of people in higher education and more people from poorer backgrounds entering higher education may have long
term benefits for population health.
Social and community networks have a strong influence on individual and collective health. Customs, traditions and belief in the role of family
and the wider community can positively affect health, reducing stress and providing a strong and consistent social support network which
3
Source: www.kingsfund.org.uk
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helps to alleviate both mental and physical problems. The form of community network however can vary in its influence, and whilst support
may be forthcoming through these, similarly certain negative behaviours and tendencies, such as poor diet, can be embedded.
The type of housing and form of surrounding environment also affects the health of individuals and communities. Whilst certain infrastructural
conditions around environment may be taken for granted within the UK, with almost universally available clean water and sanitation, high
density urban development, the erosion of green space and a presumption in favour of the car over the pedestrian within towns and cities
have a negative impact, encouraging inactivity and causing pollution. Within individual homes overcrowding is considered to have both
immediate and long term negative health effects4, whilst quality of build and lack of maintenance can impact conditions exposing residents to
problems such as damp or the cold through inadequate insulation or heating systems. The workplace environment can have as significant
effect on the health of a workforce, particularly where demanding conditions are not complemented by corporate support.
4
Source: ODPM (2004) The impact of Overcrowding on Health and Education: a review of evidence and literature http://dera.ioe.ac.uk/5073/1/138631.pdf
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2. Population: the local picture
An Overview
Northamptonshire is a centrally situated county incorporating a mix of urban and rural areas. The population density is in the lowest 25% of
upper tier authority areas within England. In spite of this, the county has seen one of the most significant levels of growth during the past 30
years, well in excess of national and regional growth trends.
This growth has been underpinned by significant structural shifts. Whilst the population has grown across all broad age groups, this has been
particularly high in those aged 65 and above. The emergence of this top heavy profile is expected to continue in projections to 2021, with
particular emphasis on the group aged 70 years and above. In spite of this growth at the top end of the age profile, the proportion of those
aged 65 and above within Northamptonshire remains comparatively low against the national profile, with the child population (0-15 years)
comparatively high.
A key transformation within the population profile has been and will continue to be the representation of different ethnic groups in the area.
Growth amongst Black, Asian, and Mixed Ethnicity groups has been high in the period 2001-2011 and this is expected to continue. The
concentration of these populations is seen most prominently in Northampton and in the other key urban areas of the county. Ethnic
populations are expected to grow significantly within Western European countries to 2050; whilst this may not have such a significant impact
on Northamptonshire as on the UKs major cities, the proportion can be expected to grow with notable structural implications for the county’s
population.
The spatial distribution of population in the county shows a clear urban-rural split. This spatial division also has significant profile implications,
with younger and child populations more concentrated in the urban areas and rural areas showing a more aged population.
Please note: this chapter is about the resident population within Northamptonshire, which is not exactly the same as the full CCG population.
Details about the CCG registered populations (Nene and Corby CCGs) can be found in the appendix.
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2.1 Northamptonshire’s Population: Summary
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2.2 About Northamptonshire: Who are we?
Northamptonshire has a mixture of urban and rural areas, with most of the population
concentrated in a central north to south area. This includes the county’s principal urban
area, Northampton, alongside a number of its secondary urban centres. However, a third of
the county’s population live in rural areas. This rural/urban split creates particular health
and wider economic and demographic dichotomies. Rural areas tend to have better health
related outcomes and lower service requirements, but have limited access to support
services. Urban areas conversely have better access to healthcare services but tend to see
concentrations of poor health. From a public health perspective these dichotomies can
inform how to respond to the needs of these populations which can vary significantly.
At the time of the 2011 census, Northamptonshire’s population was estimated at 691,952.
This has increased in the latest population estimates for 2013 to 706,600. The gender
distribution in the population shows marginally more females than males, representing
50.7% of residents. Around 63% of the population are within what was previously
designated as ‘working age’ (revised after the removal of compulsory retirement age of 65
in 2011), with 20% made up of those under 16 and the remaining almost 17% the over 65’s
(Fig. 1). Figure 2 illustrates the breakdown of age and gender for Northamptonshire
(Northamptonshire is in orange) and England (in blue).
Figure 2: Northamptonshire population
age/gender distribution6
Figure 1: Northamptonshire
Population 20135
Total
706,600
100%
Male
348,400
49.3%
Female
358,300
50.7%
Aged 015
Aged 1664
Aged 65+
141,800
20.1%
447,400
63.3%
117,400
16.6%
5
Nomis population 2013
6
ONS Population pyramids 2012-37
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For absolute number of age and sex by five year age bands, broken down by district, please
see appendix 4.
2.3 Long term population predictions
The population of Northamptonshire is expected to continue to grow, with expectations it
could reach 760,000 by 2020 and 810,000 by 2030 dependent on variances in fertility,
migration, and life expectancy (Fig. 3). Considering the structural changes which have
occurred in the population growth over the past 30 years, this projected change will see
some further structural transition. In particular continued growth in dependent groups is
expected, as some sections of working age population decline (Fig. 3).
Figure 3: Projected Structural Population change to 20217
These estimates show a “squeeze” on the “working age population” (20-60), which
increases at a lower rate than the 0-15 group and the “retirement” age group (65+). This is
particularly relevant for commissioners, due to the rise of the oldest age group (85+).
The figures in the following chart are taken from ONS subnational projections persons, the
latest subnational projections available for England, published 29 th May 2014 are full 2012
based and project the population from 2014-2030. Long-term sub national population
projections are an indication of the future trends in population by age and sex over the next
25 years.
They are trend-based projections, which mean assumptions for future levels of births,
deaths and migration are based on observed levels mainly over the previous five years. They
7
Source: Northamptonshire Analysis http://www.northamptonshireanalysis.co.uk/news/item?itemId=16
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show what the population will be if recent trends continue. The projections do not take into
account any policy changes that have not yet occurred, nor those that have not yet had an
impact on observed trends. Five percent margin of error bars have been added to the
predictions to show a potential range of scenarios and the line of best fit has been
interpolated from the data.
Figure 4: Population predictions 2014-20308
840,000
820,000
800,000
780,000
760,000
740,000
720,000
700,000
680,000
660,000
640,000
Northants POPPI/PANSI population prediction (with 5% margin of error bars)
The Northamptonshire population is predicted to substantially rise over the next 16 years by
almost 100,000 people. The ONS forecast an annual increase of around 0.8%, which is a
5,600 person increase in 2013-14 for example. If these predictions are realised it will mean a
13.57% increase of total current population.
8
POPPI/PANSI 2014
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Figure 5: ONS population predictions9
Year
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2025
2030
Northamptonshire Population
712,200 718,300 724,500 730,700 736,900 743,000 749,100 777,700 802,500
It is important to emphasise that these predictions are based on current trends, primarily of the past five year’s data. There are many wider
factors which influence population trends and these extraneous variables could influence population trends in either direction.
2.4 Historical Population Growth/ Change
Since 1981 the population of Northamptonshire has increased by almost 33%, growing from around 530,000 residents to the current 706,600.
Whilst the growth has been reflected across all segments of the population, there has also been a shift toward a more ‘top heavy’ population.
In the period 1992-2013 relatively slow growth amongst those aged 0-15 years and a plateauing of 16-64 year olds after 2008 has run against
an upward curve in the number of residents aged 65 years and over. Whilst population in each age group has grown in this period, the
proportional increase was 16% for the 16-64 age group, 10% for the 0-15, and 28% for the 65+ group. Overall, there has been a shift in
distribution within the population, with a declining proportion of children and working-age adults against a growing group of retirement age
residents.
The population of the county has however grown significantly against national and regional contexts. Between 1981 and 2013
Northamptonshire’s population increase was in excess of double that of England. This trend similarly outstrips the growth of the East Midlands
region, although not by such a significant margin (Fig. 6). Amongst the upper tier/unitary areas for England, population growth in
Northamptonshire is the 13th highest and within the top 10%.
9
ONS 2014
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Figure 6: Incremental population growth 1982-201310
30.0%
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
-5.0%
Northamptonshire
10
England
East Midlands
https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/query/construct/summary.asp?mode=construct&version=0&dataset=31
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Gender division of the population has remained relatively static between 1992 and 2013,
with proportion of males marginally increasing since 1981 from a 49:51 split to 49.3:50.7.
The distribution of gender has however shifted in line with the ageing trend. The proportion
of the female population aged over 65 rose from 16.5% to 17.7%, an increase in numbers of
almost 28% against a general female population growth of just under 20%. For males aged
65+ this was more significant, going from 12.2% to 15.5%, an increase in numbers of almost
54% against general increase of under 21%.
Figure 7: Population change by age group 1992-201311
500,000
450,000
400,000
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
Aged 16-64
11
Aged 0-15
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
50,000
Aged 65+
Source: ONS Mid-year Population Estimates
https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/query/construct/summary.asp?mode=construct&version=0&dataset=31
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Figure 8: Population change by age group12
Year
Total
Population
1992
588,200
1993
590,300
1994
593,300
1995
598,100
1996
603,500
1997
609,600
1998
615,400
1999
620,600
2000
625,500
2001
631,000
2002
636,800
2003
642,600
2004
646,600
2005
654,400
2006
663,700
2007
672,100
2008
678,200
2009
683,500
2010
688,000
2011
693,900
2012
700,600
2013
706,600
12
NOMIS 2014
Population aged 16Population aged 0Population aged
Aged 16-64 Aged 0-15 Aged 65+
64
15
65+
%
%
%
375,600
128,000
84,600
63.9
21.8
14.4
376,200
129,100
85,000
63.7
21.9
14.4
378,200
129,600
85,500
63.7
21.8
14.4
381,500
130,300
86,300
63.8
21.8
14.4
386,500
130,300
86,700
64
21.6
14.4
391,500
130,800
87,300
64.2
21.5
14.3
396,100
131,500
87,800
64.4
21.4
14.3
399,800
132,800
88,000
64.4
21.4
14.2
403,700
133,400
88,400
64.5
21.3
14.1
408,000
133,400
89,600
64.7
21.1
14.2
412,600
133,500
90,700
64.8
21
14.2
416,800
134,100
91,700
64.9
20.9
14.3
420,200
133,800
92,600
65
20.7
14.3
427,200
133,500
93,700
65.3
20.4
14.3
435,200
133,900
94,600
65.6
20.2
14.3
441,300
134,600
96,200
65.7
20
14.3
444,400
135,300
98,500
65.5
20
14.5
445,900
136,200
101,400
65.2
19.9
14.8
446,600
137,000
104,400
64.9
19.9
15.2
448,300
138,300
107,300
64.6
19.9
15.5
447,300
140,400
112,900
63.8
20
16.1
447,400
141,800
117,400
63.3
20.1
16.6
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Figure 9: Proportional population distribution by age group 1992 and 201313
2013
1992
16.6
14.4
21.8
20.1
63.3
63.9
Aged 16-64
Aged 0-15
Aged 65+
Aged 16-64
Aged 0-15
Aged 65+
2.5 National Comparison
Proportionally the distribution of population within Northamptonshire differs from that of
England in some notable ways. The changing profile of the county’s population has shown a
decline in working-age residents and an increase in the 65+ age group, in comparison to
England, Northamptonshire has fewer 65+ population (by 0.7%). In terms of dependent
groups, those aged 0-15 make up a higher proportion, with Northamptonshire’s under 16s
representing 20% of residents against a national figure of 19% (Fig. 10).
Figure 10: Population distribution comparison: Northamptonshire and England14
Total
Male
Female
Aged 0-15
Aged 16-64
Aged 65+
Northamptonshire
Population
%
706,600
348,400 49.3%
358,300 50.7%
141,800 20.1%
447,400 63.3%
117,400 16.6%
England
Population
53,865,800
26,534,000
27,331,800
10,209,200
34,351,400
9,305,200
%
49.3%
50.7%
19.0%
63.8%
17.3%
13
Source: ONS Mid-year Population Estimates
https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/query/construct/summary.asp?mode=construct&version=0&dataset=31
14
Source: ONS Mid-year Population Estimates 2013
https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/query/construct/summary.asp?mode=construct&version=0&dataset=31
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3. Births
Figure 11 below displays the number of live births and the general and total fertility rates
between 2011 and 2013 in Northamptonshire and the districts contained within it.
Figure 11: Number of live births, general fertility rate and total fertility rate15
2013
Area of usual
residence
Northamptonshire
Corby
Daventry
East
Northamptonshire
Kettering
Northampton
South
Northamptonshire
Wellingborough
Live
births
8,995
931
815
1,012
GFR1
2012
TFR2
66.7
71.3
62.6
64.9
2.03
2.06
2.10
2.12
Live
births
9,288
959
836
930
1,179
3,232
832
65.0
70.2
55.8
2.01
2.01
1.83
994
70.3
2.18
GFR1
2011
TFR2
68.6
74.1
62.8
59.2
2.11
2.20
2.13
1.94
Live
births
9,229
955
820
961
1,271
3,369
880
69.8
73.1
59.0
2.18
2.10
1.96
1,043
73.3
2.30
GFR1
67.7
75.1
59.8
59.9
2.09
2.22
2.06
1.99
1,227
3,304
901
67.1
71.5
60.0
2.09
2.06
2.01
1,061
73.5
2.31
GFR = General fertility rate: the number of live births per 1,000 women aged 15-44
TFR = Total fertility rate: the average number of children per woman
Northamptonshire has had a birth rate of consistently around 9,000 live births for each year
since 2011. The general fertility rate went up from 2011-12 (from 67.7 to 68.6) and then
decreased from 2012-13 (from 68.6 to 66.7). The total fertility rate follows the same trend.
At district level it is clear that Corby has the highest general fertility rates (the highest in
2013 of 71.3). Other urban areas like Northampton and Wellingborough also have relatively
higher rates compared to the Northamptonshire average. Wellingborough also has the
highest total fertility rate consistently over the period. Conversely South Northants has the
lowest average general and total fertility rates (55.8 in 2013). Other less densely populated
areas such as Daventry and East Northamptonshire also have relatively low general and
total fertility rates. Kettering has consistently around average fertility rates over the 2011-13
period.
Figure 12 beneath illustrates the levels of under 18 conceptions in Northamptonshire.
15
ONS 2014
TFR2
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Figure 12: Under 18 conceptions (per 1,000) – Northants compared16
Area of usual
residence
England
Wales
EAST MIDLANDS
Northamptonshire
Jun13
25.2
27.0
25.5
23.1
Mar13
25.5
26.3
24.1
22.5
Dec12
26.3
28.3
26.1
31.0
Sep12
25.9
28.9
26.9
26.3
Jun12
28.4
30.9
28.4
31.1
Mar12
30.3
35.0
31.7
34.5
Dec11
29.0
34.8
30.2
32.1
Sep11
29.3
32.2
28.4
34.3
Jun11
33.2
35.3
34.6
34.6
It is clear that under 18 conceptions have been going down over the period displayed
(March 2011-May 2013) for Northamptonshire as well as elsewhere in the East Midlands,
England and Wales. Up until March 2013 Northants was generally above the level of under
18 conceptions compared to the East Midlands and England. But, from March 2013 onwards
Northants has seen a decrease to lower than the averages of England, Wales and the East
Midlands.
Figure 13: Under 18 conceptions (per 1,000) – Northants compared17
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
England
20.0
15.0
Wales
EAST MIDLANDS
Northamptonshire
10.0
5.0
0.0
16
ONS 2014
17
ONS 2014
Mar11
31.4
34.4
32.4
32.4
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4. Mortality
Mortality can be measured in many ways and one of the most popular contemporary
methods is through standardised mortality ratios. In epidemiology, standardised mortality
ratio is a quantity expressed as a ratio quantifying the increase or decrease of mortality of a
cohort compared to the general population. In figure 14 beneath, the number of actual
deaths and the associated standardised mortality ratios from causes considered preventable
are displayed for Northamptonshire, England and East Midlands.
Figure 14: Mortality rate from causes considered preventable18
Area
Count
Northamptonshire
England
East midlands
3,549
264,232
23,806
Value
186.7
183.9
185.2
95% lower confidence interval
95% upper confidence interval
180.5
183.1
182.8
Northamptonshire has a slightly higher SMR for causes considered preventable than
England and the East Midlands, but not by a statistically significant amount.
Figure 15 on the next page illustrates several different mortality indicators for
Northamptonshire and districts from 2010-2012.
18
ONS 2014
193
184.6
187.5
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Figure 15: Mortality in Northamptonshire and districts 2010-12 (ONS 2014)
2012
All ages
Northamptonshire
Corby
Daventry
East Northamptonshire
Kettering
Northampton
South Northamptonshire
Wellingborough
2011
Northamptonshire
Corby
Daventry
East Northamptonshire
Kettering
Northampton
South Northamptonshire
Wellingborough
2010
Northamptonshire
Corby
Daventry
East Northamptonshire
Kettering
Northampton
South Northamptonshire
Wellingborough
Deaths (numbers)
Infant
Neonatal
(under
(under
one
four
year)
weeks)
Females
Perinatal
(stillbirths
and births
under one
week)
Persons
Males
5,839
505
728
754
841
1,799
637
575
2,832
255
353
366
403
876
300
279
3,007
250
375
388
438
923
337
296
42
5
4
4
5
20
1
3
34
3
2
3
5
19
2
79
15
6
4
11
34
3
6
Crude
death
rate
(deaths
per
1000)
8.3
8.0
9.3
8.6
8.9
8.4
7.4
7.6
5,720
514
648
765
820
1,714
640
619
2,797
260
331
381
399
813
306
307
2,923
254
317
384
421
901
334
312
46
3
1
3
6
23
2
8
33
2
1
2
6
17
1
4
82
6
8
7
10
31
9
11
5,715
521
617
761
831
1,743
640
602
2,797
241
304
347
387
902
317
299
2,918
280
313
414
444
841
323
303
31
2
4
7
3
12
1
2
23
2
3
5
2
9
1
1
70
7
10
7
9
25
5
7
Rates
Age standardised mortality
Infant
rate
mortality
Persons Males
Females (per 1000
live
births)
Neonatal
mortality
(per 1000
live
births)
534.2
635.1
544.8
491.9
522.3
604.9
425.3
467.0
617.0
728.1
627.0
580.7
624.9
710.2
452.7
528.4
465.9
552.0
478.7
418.2
436.8
518.8
401.3
425.5
4.5
5.2
4.8
4.3
3.9
5.9
:
2.9
3.7
3.1
:
3.2
3.9
5.6
:
Perinatal
mortality
rates (per
1000 live
births and
stillbirths)
8.5
15.4
7.1
4.3
8.6
10.0
3.4
5.7
8.2
8.3
8.3
8.8
8.7
8.1
7.5
8.2
540.8
665.0
494.8
517.9
539.0
593.2
440.5
516.3
631.6
767.7
602.4
623.1
647.0
679.3
492.5
611.6
460.4
573.5
402.5
418.4
450.3
516.6
386.8
439.0
5.0
3.1
:
3.1
4.9
7.0
:
7.5
3.6
:
:
:
4.9
5.1
:
3.8
8.8
6.3
9.7
7.2
8.1
9.3
9.9
10.3
8.3
9.3
7.8
8.9
9.2
8.2
7.2
7.9
540.4
658.5
503.5
519.1
558.2
589.0
450.9
490.8
638.5
706.7
595.0
571.9
646.9
741.1
528.8
589.5
456.7
619.0
423.4
481.8
487.4
456.1
389.4
396.2
3.3
:
5.0
6.9
2.4
3.5
:
:
2.5
:
3.8
4.9
:
2.7
:
:
7.5
7.6
12.4
6.8
7.1
7.4
5.8
6.8
P a g e | 23
Data from the above table concerning infant (under one year), neonatal (under four weeks)
and perinatal (stillbirths and births under one week) mortality is illustrated in figure 16
beneath. (The source for this data is ONS 2014)
Figure 16: Infant, neonatal and perinatal mortality in Northamptonshire and England
10
Infant mortality Northants (per
1000 live births)
9
8
Infant mortality England
7
6
Neonatal mortality Northants
(per 1000 live births)
5
Neonatal mortality England
(per 1000 live births)
4
3
Perinatal mortality rates
Northants (per 1000 live births
and stillbirths)
2
Perinatal mortality rates
England (per 1000 live births
and stillbirths)
1
0
2010
Year
2010
2011
Infant
mortality
Northants
(per 1000 live
births)
3.3
Infant
mortality
England (per
1000 deaths)
2012
4
Neonatal
mortality
Northants (per
1000 live
births)
2.5
Neonatal
mortality
England (per
1000 live
births)
Perinatal mortality
rates Northants (per
1000 live births and
stillbirths)
Perinatal mortality
rates England (per
1000 live births and
stillbirths)
2.8
7.5
6.9
2011
5
4
3.6
2.8
8.8
7.1
2012
4.5
3.9
3.7
2.7
8.5
6.6
All three of these indicators show a trend of slightly increasing over the 2010-2012 period
for Northamptonshire, compared to a slight decrease in all three for England.
Figure 17 below illustrates the age standardised mortality rates in Northamptonshire for all
people, females and males. The age standardised rates allow for differences in the age
P a g e | 24
structure of populations and allow valid comparisons to be made between geographical
areas and through time19.
Figure 17: Age standardised mortality in Northamptonshire
700
Age- standardised mortality
rate Persons
Northamptonshire
650
Age- standardised mortality
rate Persons Eng and Wales
600
Age- standardised mortality
rate Males Northamptonshire
550
Age- standardised mortality
rate Males Eng and Wales
500
Age- standardised mortality
rate Females
Northamptonshire
450
Age- standardised mortality
rate Females Eng and Wales
400
2010
2011
2012
Age standardised
mortality rate
Males
Northamptonshire
540.4
Age
standardised
mortality rate
Persons Eng
and Wales
541.8
540.8
534.2
Age standardised
mortality rate
Persons
Northamptonshire
Year
2010
2011
2012
Age standardised
mortality rate
Females
Northamptonshire
Age standardised
mortality rate
Females Eng and
Wales
638.5
Age
standardised
mortality rate
Males Eng and
Wales
640.6
456.7
458.1
526.8
631.6
623.6
460.4
445.8
528
617
619.1
465.9
451
Figure 17 shows that the age standardised mortality rate for all people is relatively static
over the period, decreasing very slightly in 2012. For Females however, the age
standardised mortality rate has increased over the period. Conversely the age standardised
mortality for males decreased. The difference in trends for males and females explains why
the rate for all people is quite static; the male and female variations nearly cancel each
other out.
19
ONS 2014
P a g e | 25
Figure 18 (beneath) illustrates the age standardised mortality rates for the districts
contained within Northamptonshire over the same time period (2010-12) and the significant
variation that exists.
Figure 18: Age standardised mortality: Northamptonshire districts (2010-12)
Age standardised mortality: districts
700
Corby
Age standardised mortality rate
Daventry
650
East
Northamptonshire
600
Kettering
550
Northampton
500
Northamptonshire
450
South
Northamptonshire
400
Wellingborough
2010
2011
2012
It is clear that there exists a large difference in life expectancy depending on where you live
in Northamptonshire. South Northants consistently has lower age standardised mortality
than all the other districts for example, and this is gradually decreasing over the period. On
the other end of the scale Corby consistently has the highest age standardised mortality,
followed by Northampton (which actually worsens over the period). These varying age
standardised mortality rates demonstrate the inequalities that exist within the population:
where people live can have a large bearing on health outcomes in their lives.
Figures 19-25 below show mortality rates which are directly standardised for
Northamptonshire, East Midland authorities and England. Different causes such as: all
causes, cardiovascular disease, cancer, liver disease and respiratory disease broken down by
gender.
P a g e | 26
Key: Mortality – Premature death: directly standardised rates with comparators20
Comparison with respect to England value: Worse
Similar
Better
Not compared
* = value estimated
Period
England
East Midlands
Derby
Derbyshire
Leicester
Leicestershire
Lincolnshire
Northamptonshire
Nottingham
Nottinghamshire
Rutland
4.03 - Mortality rate from causes considered preventable (Persons)
4.03
per
100,000
Lower
2010 - 12
187.8
188.5
207.4
184.9
233.6
166.8
181.8
188.2
247.4
187.4
145.4
4.03 - Mortality rate from causes considered preventable (Male)
4.03
per
100,000
Lower
2010 - 12
238.4
240
274.5
237
314.1
207.1
231.7
235.1
321.8
235.6
195.7
4.03 - Mortality rate from causes considered preventable (Female)
4.03
per
100,000
Lower
2010 - 12
140.6
139.9
145
135.1
158.6
128.7
135.2
143.5
177.4
142.4
98.2
Indicator
Units
Tolerance (Lower
or Higher is better?)
Figure 19: premature death: all causes
Figure 20: premature death: cardiovascular disease
4.04i - Under 75 mortality rate from all cardiovascular diseases
4.04i
(Persons)
per
100,000
Lower
2010 - 12
81.1
82.6
91.6
82.4
108.5
71.2
82.3
80.9
111.8
77.4
85.5
4.04i - Under 75 mortality rate from all cardiovascular diseases
4.04i
(Male)
per
100,000
Lower
2010 - 12
114
115
125
116.3
145.8
96.9
116.4
109.7
158.6
109.7
121.3
4.04i - Under 75 mortality rate from all cardiovascular diseases
4.04i
(Female)
per
100,000
Lower
2010 - 12
50.1
51.4
60.1
49.3
72.6
46.2
49.7
52.9
67
46.5
50.3
4.04ii - Under 75 mortality rate from cardiovascular diseases
4.04ii
considered preventable (Persons)
per
100,000
Lower
2010 - 12
53.5
55.9
63
58.5
73.2
47.4
55.1
50.7
75.3
53.6
59.2
4.04ii - Under 75 mortality rate from cardiovascular diseases
4.04ii
considered preventable (Male)
per
100,000
Lower
2010 - 12
80.8
84.1
92.1
89.8
104.6
70.4
84
75.8
112.9
81.4
86.4
4.04ii - Under 75 mortality rate from cardiovascular diseases
4.04ii
considered preventable (Female)
per
100,000
Lower
2010 - 12
27.6
28.7
35.6
28.1
43.1
25.1
27.5
26.2
39.1
27
*
20
PHOF 2014
P a g e | 27
Period
England
East Midlands
Derby
Derbyshire
Leicester
Leicestershire
Lincolnshire
Northamptonshire
Nottingham
Nottinghamshire
Rutland
4.05i - Under 75 mortality rate from cancer (Persons)
4.05i
per
100,000
Lower
2010 - 12
146.5
147.2
147.6
145.3
150.6
135.8
144.7
151.8
182.7
150
116.3
4.05i - Under 75 mortality rate from cancer (Male)
4.05i
per
100,000
Lower
2010 - 12
163.6
163
168.3
163.1
175.5
148.4
153.9
170.2
200
168
123.9
4.05i - Under 75 mortality rate from cancer (Female)
4.05i
per
100,000
Lower
2010 - 12
130.8
132.4
128.9
128.5
128.2
124
136
134.1
166.8
133.3
108.8
4.05ii - Under 75 mortality rate from cancer considered preventable
4.05ii
(Persons)
per
100,000
Lower
2010 - 12
84.9
84
89.2
81.3
91.5
76.4
80.6
87.6
107.1
86.9
53.8
4.05ii - Under 75 mortality rate from cancer considered preventable
4.05ii
(Male)
per
100,000
Lower
2010 - 12
92.7
92
104.2
89.2
109.8
78
86.3
97.1
121.4
95.8
53.1
4.05ii - Under 75 mortality rate from cancer considered preventable
4.05ii
(Female)
per
100,000
Lower
2010 - 12
77.9
76.6
75.5
73.8
75.2
75
75.1
78.6
93.8
78.7
54.6
Indicator
Units
Tolerance (Lower
or Higher is better?)
Figure 21: premature death: cancer21
Figure 22: premature death: liver disease
4.06i - Under 75 mortality rate from liver disease (Persons)
4.06i
per
100,000
Lower
2010 - 12
18
17.6
22.6
14.7
25.3
14.7
16.3
17.9
29.2
17.6
*
4.06i - Under 75 mortality rate from liver disease (Male)
4.06i
per
100,000
Lower
2010 - 12
23.7
23.2
31.3
19.3
39
17.8
21.6
22.1
38.9
23.3
*
4.06i - Under 75 mortality rate from liver disease (Female)
4.06i
per
100,000
Lower
2010 - 12
12.6
12.1
14.1
10.3
11.8
11.6
11.2
13.8
19.2
12
*
4.06ii - Under 75 mortality rate from liver disease considered
4.06ii
preventable (Persons)
per
100,000
Lower
2010 - 12
15.8
15.5
20.7
13.3
22.7
13.1
14.1
16.2
26.4
14.6
*
4.06ii - Under 75 mortality rate from liver disease considered
4.06ii
preventable (Male)
per
100,000
Lower
2010 - 12
21.1
21.1
29.2
17.7
35.5
16.5
19.2
20.5
36.5
20.2
*
4.06ii - Under 75 mortality rate from liver disease considered
4.06ii
preventable (Female)
per
100,000
Lower
2010 - 12
10.6
10.1
12.3
9
10.1
9.8
9.1
12
16.1
9.2
*
21
PHOF 2014
P a g e | 28
Period
England
East Midlands
Derby
Derbyshire
Leicester
Leicestershire
Lincolnshire
Northamptonshire
Nottingham
Nottinghamshire
Rutland
4.07i - Under 75 mortality rate from respiratory disease (Persons)
4.07i
per
100,000
Lower
2010 - 12
33.5
33.2
38
31.9
47.5
25.6
31.2
35.8
54.5
31.9
*
4.07i - Under 75 mortality rate from respiratory disease (Male)
4.07i
per
100,000
Lower
2010 - 12
39.6
39.8
45.7
40.6
61.7
30.6
35.4
41
72.5
36.5
*
4.07i - Under 75 mortality rate from respiratory disease (Female)
4.07i
per
100,000
Lower
2010 - 12
27.9
27
30.8
23.6
34.9
20.8
27.1
30.7
38.6
27.5
*
4.07ii - Under 75 mortality rate from respiratory disease considered
4.07ii
preventable (Persons)
per
100,000
Lower
2010 - 12
17.6
16.6
16.4
15.4
22
12.4
15.5
19.2
31.3
16.3
*
4.07ii - Under 75 mortality rate from respiratory disease considered
4.07ii
preventable (Male)
per
100,000
Lower
2010 - 12
20.1
18.9
19.8
18.6
30
15.4
17.5
20
36.7
16.6
*
4.07ii - Under 75 mortality rate from respiratory disease considered
4.07ii
preventable (Female)
per
100,000
Lower
2010 - 12
15.2
14.4
13.3
12.3
14.9
9.6
13.5
18.5
26.9
16.1
*
Indicator
Units
Tolerance (Lower
or Higher is better?)
Figure 23: premature death: respiratory disease22
The only indicator where Northamptonshire is significantly worse than the national average is under 75 mortality rate from respiratory
diseases considered preventable (females). For all other preventable mortality rates Northamptonshire is in line with the national averages.
These indicators are updated quarterly on the Public Health Outcomes Framework23.
Also in relation to deaths within the county it is interesting to consider the place of death which is broken down by CCG level and compared to
England. These end of life care indicators are illustrated in figures 24 and 25 below. They show that there are a much higher proportion of
23
PHOF 2014
P a g e | 29
people in Corby CCG who die at home than the England average. This could be because of the SMR being so high in Corby, resulting in many
people dying before they get to hospital, a care home or a hospice.
Figure 24: Northamptonshire (Nene CCG) Mortality Indicators compared to England24
Figure 25: Northamptonshire (Corby CCG) Mortality Indicators compared to England25
24
http://www.endoflifecare-intelligence.org.uk/profiles/CCGs/Place_of_Death/atlas.html
25
http://www.endoflifecare-intelligence.org.uk/profiles/CCGs/Place_of_Death/atlas.html
P a g e | 30
4.1 Potential years of life lost
Potential years of life lost (PYLL) is an indicator measured by the Health and Social Care
Information Centre. This measures the number of years of life lost by every 100,000 persons
dying from a condition, which is usually treatable. The September 2014 release shows that
Nene CCG has a directly age standardised PYLL of 1,993 per 100,000 and Corby CCG has
2,781 per 100,000. These equate to 12,867 and 1,885 years of life lost respectively.
Compared to the national average of 2,027, it is clear that Corby has a high number of PYLL.
It has the sixth worst standardised PYLL of any CCG in England, which is a significant
concern. Nene CCG performs slightly better than the national average, however the PYLL
does not vary from the national average at a significant level. Using this mortality indicator
we can identify a significant concern in Corby.
4.2 Premature Deaths26
Illustrated beneath are some of the main causes of death nationally. These are expressed
per 100,000 of the population, and Northamptonshire is ranked compared to other counties
(where higher is always better). It is clear that Northants performs averagely on overall
premature deaths:
Figure 26: Causes of premature deaths
26
Longer Lives 2014
P a g e | 31
Northamptonshire performs slightly
worse than the average county on
cancer mortality outcomes. These are
related to the above lifestyle factors.
Northamptonshire performs slightly
better than the average county on heart
disease and stroke related outcomes.
These are related to the above lifestyle
factors.
Northamptonshire performs very slightly
below average on lung disease, which is
strongly linked to smoking. Smoking
appears as a cause of cancer, heart and
lung disease.
Northamptonshire performs well on liver
disease related mortality. Liver disease
mortality is caused mainly by the above
lifestyle factors.
P a g e | 32
5. Life expectancy27
Figure 27 beneath illustrates the life expectancy of males and females in Northamptonshire
with 95% confidence intervals. Confidence intervals are observed intervals of the population
parameter. It is clear that females live on average longer than males and they also have a
longer life expectancy at 65.
Figure 27: Life expectancy at birth and age 65
2010-2012 Life expectancy at birth and at 65 (with 95% confidence
intervals)
Life expectancy at birth (Male)
Life expectancy at birth (Female)
Life expectancy at 65 (Male)
Life expectancy at 65 (Female)
Score
Lower
CI
Upper CI
79.1
82.7
18.4
20.8
78.8
82.4
18.3
20.6
79.4
82.9
18.6
21.0
Figure 28 below shows the life expectancy in Northamptonshire compared to England from
2000-2012. Evidently life expectancy has increased for both females and males in
Northamptonshire, as well as nationally. In both genders, Northamptonshire began slightly
above the national average in 2000-2002 and despite increasing over the period both are
below the national average in 2010-12.
Figure 28: life expectancy in Northamptonshire & England 2000-2012
27
ONS 2014
P a g e | 33
Figures 29-32 beneath illustrate the differences in life expectancy and healthy life expectancy between women and men in Northamptonshire
compared to other authorities in the region. The red lines illustrate the England average and the green lines represent the East Midlands
average.
Figure 29:Healthy life expectancy28
at birth - male in years (2009-11)
Figure 30: Healthy life expectancy
at birth - female in years (2009-11)
Figure 31: Life expectancy
at birth - male in years (2010-12)
Figure 32: Life expectancy at
birth - female in years (2010-12)
It is clear that women live longer than men by around two and a half years in Northamptonshire. Interestingly, the healthy life expectancy in
Northamptonshire for men is high compared to other areas in the East Midlands as well as England. Consequently the difference in healthy life
expectancy between men and women in Northamptonshire is much less marked (only 0.6 years).
28
http://fingertips.phe.org.uk/
P a g e | 34
Figure 33 beneath illustrates the various life expectancies, including life expectancy at birth, healthy life expectancy and life expectancy at age
65. These reveal key information about the Northamptonshire population and where it sits compared to the best and worst areas in England.
In line with the rest of the England women tend to live longer than men (82.7 compared to 79.1). Interestingly though, there is much less
difference between the healthy life expectancy of men and women in Northamptonshire (only 0.6 years).
Figure 33: Life Expectancy in Northamptonshire29
29
http://www.phoutcomes.info/public-health-outcomes-framework#gid/1000049/pat/6/ati/102/page/1/par/E12000004/are/E10000021
P a g e | 35
6. The difference in births and deaths
Net population increase excluding migration can be calculated by subtracting the number of deaths from the number of births. In
Northamptonshire births have exceeded deaths by around 3,400 each year since 2010. Births consistently exceeding deaths in this way is one
of the contributing factors to population growth. The remaining growth is explained by migration of people into the county, from abroad or
elsewhere in the UK. More information on migration can be found in the section on migration (pages 47 onwards).
Figure 34: Net population increase in Northants since 201030
Net population increase
Northamptonshire
Corby
Daventry
East Northamptonshire
Kettering
Northampton
South Northamptonshire
Wellingborough
30
ONS 2014
2012
2011
2010
Persons Persons Persons
3,449
3,390
3,419
454
450
414
108
92
70
176
207
263
430
386
426
1,570
1,505
1,584
243
264
217
468
486
445
P a g e | 36
7. Spatial Distribution in Northamptonshire
Northamptonshire is sub-divided at the lower tier level into seven different districts and boroughs. The population is not evenly dispersed
across these areas, with larger concentrations occurring in the more urbanised parts (Fig. 35). This variation in population density occurs both
between and within localities, with some encompassing both urban and rural areas.
Within the districts and boroughs variations in population can be seen. There is greater representation of deprivation, of younger age groups
(particularly 18-35 year olds), and of ethnic minority groups in the urban areas whilst more rural parts are populated by an older and less
diverse demographic. The age structure across the localities of Northamptonshire shows some consistency with this. The proportion of those
aged 65+ is more pronounced in the more rural parts of Daventry, East Northamptonshire, South Northamptonshire and also Wellingborough.
In the more urbanised Corby and Northampton this groups represent a proportion around 4% points lower.
A similar tendency occurs around the distribution of ethnic groups across localities. The proportion made up by White groups ranges from 97%
in South Northamptonshire to 85% in Northampton. The concentration of Mixed, Asian, and Black groups in Northampton and Wellingborough
is more than double that found elsewhere in the county.
Various other distinctions between local populations can be identified. Corby and Northampton both have higher proportions of younger
people amongst their population, Corby amongst under 16s and Northampton in the group of 18-30 year olds. Within other localities the
population increases more significantly at later age groups from the age of 50 onward (Appendix 1).
P a g e | 37
Figure 35: Northamptonshire population by lower tier Local Authority31
Population is dense
in urban areas
The most dense
concentration of people
is found in
Northampton
Population is most sparse
in rural areas
31
Source: ONS Mid-year population estimates http://www.northamptonshireanalysis.co.uk/resource/view?resourceId=669
P a g e | 38
Figure 36: Rural Urban Classification in Northamptonshire 2011(RUC 2011)
Figure 36: illustrates the distribution of towns
and villages in Northamptonshire. There are
clear concentrations of urban areas, rural
towns and fringes surrounding them and rural
villages and dispersed areas further away from
the urban populations.
P a g e | 39
7.1 Location and distribution of Children in Northamptonshire
The population of children in Northamptonshire is comparatively high. Against a proportional figure for England of 19%, the population of
those aged 0-15 in the county stands at just over 20%32. This is unevenly distributed across the districts and borough, although only Daventry
has a proportion of 0-15 year olds below the national average. A tendency within the child population is for it to be concentrated within urban
areas, in line with the population of younger adults and the availability of affordable housing. The distribution of those aged 0-17 years within
Northamptonshire, examined at middle super output area scale, replicates this to some extent, although in a number of cases the
concentration occurs within areas on the periphery of key towns. This concentration does not always translate in terms of proportion, with the
higher number of children aged 0-17 as a percentage of population occurring almost exclusively in the more central urban areas of Corby,
Kettering, Wellingborough, Northampton and Daventry. Within area of higher population but lower proportional representation this may
present an issue around the recognition and prioritisation of specific concerns in children’s health against those of more prominent
demographic groups.
Distribution across age groups within Northamptonshire had changed slowly over 15 years to around 2009, but has since shown a notable
increase. Of the 172,000 residents aged under 20 at the 2011 Census, age groups 5-9 years, 10-14 years, and 15-19 years all record a similar
quantum of around 42,000. The population 0-4 years is almost 10% higher at 46,000. This will have implications in the transition between age
groups and their health support requirements as the children born after 2009 onward grow older; it may similarly have implications around
the demand for services to support children with birth rates expected to incrementally increase to 2020.
32
ONS Mid-Year Population Estimates 2013 http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/publications/re-reference-tables.html?edition=tcm%3A77-322718
P a g e | 40
Figure 37: Population aged 0-17 years 201233
Figure 38: Population proportional (%) concentration aged 0-17 years 201234
33
Source: Northamptonshire Analysis
http://www.northamptonshireanalysis.co.uk/bytheme?themeId=6&themeName=Population and Census
34
Source: Northamptonshire Analysis
http://www.northamptonshireanalysis.co.uk/bytheme?themeId=6&themeName=Population and Census
P a g e | 41
7.2 Location and distribution of Young Adults in Northamptonshire
As at 2013 the population of young adults in Northamptonshire, defined here as 18 to 30 years old, stood at 98,800, representing 14% of all
residents. This is a lower comparative proportion against the figure for England, which stood at 16%. Across the districts and boroughs there is
significant variance in the distribution of this population, but the only part of the county in which this exceeds the national picture is
Northampton (Fig. 39).
Figure 39: Young Adult population 201335
Northamptonshire
Corby
Daventry
East Northamptonshire
Kettering
Northampton
South Northamptonshire
Wellingborough
England
Aged 18-30
98,800
10,100
9,200
10,300
12,800
37,000
9,500
9,800
8,615,800
% Total Pop.
14.0%
15.7%
11.7%
11.7%
13.4%
17.1%
10.9%
12.9%
16.0%
The tendency for young adult populations is to converge in more urbanised areas; this can particularly be seen in the proportions of people
aged 18-30 years in London and the other 8 core cities of England, representing a range from 19% (London) to over 28% (Nottingham). This is
replicated at the county scale with the notable concentration found in Northampton. At the lower level, using Middle Super Output Areas, in
35
ONS, Mid-Year Population Estimates https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/query/construct/summary.asp?mode=construct&version=0&dataset=31
P a g e | 42
terms of both volume and proportion, the greater concentration in Northamptonshire is found in or on the periphery of the principle urban
areas of Northampton, Kettering, Corby, Rushden, and Wellingborough (Fig. 40 and 41).
Figure 40: Population aged 18-30 (2012)36
Figure 41: Population by proportion (%) 18-30 (2012)37
36
Source: Northamptonshire Analysis http://www.northamptonshireanalysis.co.uk/bytheme?themeId=6&themeName=Population and Census
37
Source: Northamptonshire Analysis http://www.northamptonshireanalysis.co.uk/bytheme?themeId=6&themeName=Population and Census
P a g e | 43
7.3 Location and distribution of older people in Northamptonshire
The population aged 65+ in Northamptonshire stands at around 117,000 and makes up just
under 17% of the population. Whilst the growth of this demographic has been almost
double that of the general population it makes up a smaller proportion of the population
than for England. The convergence over the past decade has however been significant; in
2003 the variance between Northamptonshire and England was 1.6% points, but in 2013
this stands at just 0.7% points. The concentration of this group shows significant variance
across the county. Within Corby and Northampton the proportion is much lower, but across
the other boroughs and districts shows in some cases a quite significant increase (Fig. 42).
The distribution at the middle super output area shows a trend converse to that of the
population of children and young adults. The 65+ population is more dispersed across the
county with particular concentrations within more rural parts and a notable absence within
more urban areas, especially Wellingborough and Northampton (Fig. 43 and 44).
Figure 42: Population aged 65+38
Population
65+
% 65+
117,400
16.6
Corby
9,000
14.0
Daventry
14,700
18.7
East Northamptonshire
16,500
18.7
Kettering
16,500
17.2
Northampton
30,700
14.2
South Northamptonshire
16,400
18.8
Wellingborough
13,600
18.7
Northamptonshire
38
ONS Mid-year Population Estimates 2013
https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/query/construct/summary.asp?mode=construct&version=0&dataset=31
P a g e | 44
Figure 43: Population aged 65+ by number39
Figure 44: Population aged 65+ by proportion (%)40
39
Northamptonshire Analysis
http://www.northamptonshireanalysis.co.uk/bytheme?themeId=6&themeName=Population and Census
40
Northamptonshire Analysis
http://www.northamptonshireanalysis.co.uk/bytheme?themeId=6&themeName=Population and Census
P a g e | 45
8. Ethnicity and Place of Birth
Detailed data on the ethnic structure of Northamptonshire is not as current as that on age and gender. This was however collected as part of
the 2011 Census. Within the county the majority of the population falls within the White ethnic group. Just less than 10% of the population
falls outside of this group. Residents of Asian origin represent the second largest ethnic group, making up just fewer than 4% of the population.
Black groups make up about 2.5%, residents of Mixed Ethnic origin 2%, and those of Other Ethnic groups 0.4%. 41
Figure 45: Northamptonshire 2001 census ethnicity
Figure 46: Northamptonshire 2011 census ethnicity
5%
8.5%
4%
White
White
Mixed
Mixed
Asian
Asian
Black
Black
Other
Other
95%
41
http://www.northamptonshireanalysis.co.uk/dataviews/view?viewId=169
91.5%
P a g e | 46
Whilst the representation of non-white groups increased between the 2001 and 2011 censuses (Fig. 45 and 46), the county remains
predominantly populated by resident from amongst White groups. The increase in other ethnic groups has however been significant. This has
included a 100% increase amongst Black ethnicity residents, 85% in Asian residents, and an 82% increase in residents of mixed ethnicity. The
population from those deemed other ethnic groups however declined; this may be explained by changes in classification, with the Chinese (or
South East Asian) population being reassigned from other to Asian in the 2011 census.
Parents’ country of birth reveals what types of ethnicities are living in Northamptonshire, and what the future populations’ ethnicity is going to
look like. Parents’ country of birth in Northamptonshire and the districts within it for 2011-13 are displayed on the next page in figure 47.
P a g e | 47
Figure 47: Parents’ country of birth: Northants and districts42 (*new EU = Joined the EU from 2004)
Area of usual residence of
mother
2013
2012
2011
42
Northamptonshire
Corby
Daventry
East Northamptonshire
Kettering
Northampton
South Northamptonshire
Wellingborough
Northamptonshire
Corby
Daventry
East Northamptonshire
Kettering
Northampton
South Northamptonshire
Wellingborough
Northamptonshire
Corby
Daventry
East Northamptonshire
Kettering
Northampton
South Northamptonshire
Wellingborough
ONS 2014
All live
births
8,995
931
815
1,012
1,179
3,232
832
994
9,288
959
836
930
1,271
3,369
880
1,043
9,229
955
820
961
1,227
3,304
901
1,061
Mothers
born within
United
Kingdom
Mothers born outside United Kingdom
Total births to mothers to non-UK born mothers
Percentage of
live births to
non-UK born
mothers
EU
New
EU2
Rest of
Europe
(non EU)
Middle
East and
Asia
Africa
Rest of
World
6,811
635
704
903
994
2,116
745
714
7,170
704
725
820
1,045
2,337
773
766
7,204
705
711
849
1,014
2,293
812
820
2,184
296
111
109
185
1,116
87
280
2,117
255
111
110
225
1,032
107
277
2,025
250
109
112
213
1,011
89
241
24.3
31.8
13.6
10.8
15.7
34.5
10.5
28.2
22.8
26.6
13.3
11.8
17.7
30.6
12.2
26.6
21.9
26.2
13.3
11.7
17.4
30.6
9.9
22.7
1,187
239
71
61
95
528
34
159
1,131
201
66
54
116
487
44
163
1,008
197
58
48
96
433
38
138
1,024
217
56
39
77
469
16
150
957
186
52
28
97
430
18
146
842
177
48
26
73
385
17
116
84
8
7
6
5
43
1
14
92
16
6
2
7
48
3
10
79
10
9
3
8
42
1
6
418
13
15
14
43
260
17
56
365
9
15
11
49
208
17
56
402
14
15
15
60
237
10
51
399
31
13
14
31
259
13
38
410
25
10
17
44
260
18
36
419
23
17
23
37
267
20
32
96
5
5
14
11
26
22
13
119
4
14
26
9
29
25
12
117
6
10
23
12
32
20
14
P a g e | 48
Figures 48-51 below illustrate the trends for births of non UK mothers in Northamptonshire.
Figure 48: Percentage of Births to non UK mothers
Figure 49: Number of births to EU mothers (outside the UK)
Percentage
The percentage of births to non-UK
mothers
25
24
23
22
21
20
2011
2012
2013
Figure 50: Number of births to mothers from new EU mothers
Number of births
The number of births to new EU*
mothers
1050
1000
950
900
850
800
2011
2012
2013
Figure 51: Number of births from mothers of the rest of the world
P a g e | 49
It is clear that the number of births in Northamptonshire to mothers born outside of the UK
is increasing in percentage and absolute terms. The number of births to mothers born
within the EU has been consistently increasing, and this is mainly due to the increasing
number of new EU mothers.
New EU state mothers make up a large percent of the EU births in Northamptonshire and
this number is increasing (by nearly 200 additional births 2011-2013 totalling 1024 in 2013).
The number of births to mothers from the rest of the world remains pretty static, with
relatively more births to mothers from the Middle East and Africa (both around 400)
compared to the rest of the EU and the rest of the world (both around 100).
It is estimated that over the next 25 years 43% of population growth will be the result of
migration43. This migration will have a structural impact on the population. Some
projections suggest that within a number of Western European countries, including the UK,
minority groups could constitute up to 40% of the national population by 205044. This has
implications not solely in terms of ethnicity but in terms of balancing against a top-heavy
population dependency; migrant populations have a role in both balancing the dependency
ratio and maintaining a population under the age of 16 (Fig. 52).
Figure 52: Ethnic group distribution by age in Northamptonshire
43
44
Source: ONS National Population Projections (2013)
Source: Immigration, population and ethnicity: the UK in international perspective (2013), The Migration
Observatory, University of Oxford http://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/briefings/immigration-populationand-ethnicity-uk-international-perspective
P a g e | 50
Figure 53: District and Borough population structure by age 201345
100%
95%
90%
85%
80%
75%
70%
65%
60%
55%
50%
16.6
14.0
18.7
18.7
17.2
14.2
Figure 54: District and Borough population structure by ethnicity
201146
Wellingboro
18.8
18.7
Northampton
20.1
63.3
21.2
64.8
18.7
62.5
19.4
61.8
20.1
62.6
2.9
19.2
20.4
84.5
3.2
61.8
3.6
1.2 1.30.4
6.5
93.9
5.1
1.4
3.2
1.1
East Northants
96.6
1.2 1.30.7
Daventry
96.5
1.2 1.50.6
Corby
62.0
5.9
96.9
Kettering
20.7
65.2
87.3
South Northants
95.5
82%
87%
1.4 1.3 1.6
92%
97%
102%
White
Mixed/multiple ethnic groups
Asian/Asian British
Aged 16-64
Aged 0-15
Aged 65+
Black/African/Caribbean/Black British
Other ethnic group
Later in this document the topic of ethnicity is discussed in fuller
detail relative to specific groups. For example in the section on
children (p.68) and the section on minority BME groups (p.93).
Also: for age and gender population breakdown in five year bands
please see appendix 4.
45
ONS Mid-year population estimates
https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/query/construct/summary.asp?mode=construct&
version=0&dataset=31
46
ONS Census 2011 http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/census/2011-census/keystatistics-for-local-authorities-in-england-and-wales/rpt-ethnicity.html
P a g e | 51
Religion and belief47
In 2011, 64% of the county’s population was made up of residents who stated that they followed one of the main 6 religions, slightly less than the regional
and national picture. The number of Christians in the county had reduced by 11.6 percentage points since the 2001 Census. There had been a
corresponding increase of 11.2 percentage points in the number of the county’s residents with no religion. Between 2001 and 2011, there had also been
small increases in all of the other main religions except those of Jewish faith.
Figure 55: Religion distribution in Northamptonshire – pie
Religion
Percentage
Point
Change
from 2001
East
Midlands
Percentage
2011
England
Percentage
2011
Christian
59.87%
414,265
-11.64
58.81%
59.38%
Hindu
Buddhist
0.32%
2,194
0.08
0.28%
0.45%
Hindu
1.16%
8,014
0.026
1.98%
1.52%
Jewish
0.10%
679
-0.01
0.09%
0.49%
Muslim
1.75%
12,104
0.85
3.10%
5.02%
Sikh
0.40%
2,765
0.11
0.98%
0.79%
Other
Religion
0.42%
2,882
0.15
0.40%
0.43%
No
Religion
29.25%
202,379
11.26
27.53%
24.74%
6.74%
46,670
-1.06
6.83%
7.18%
Muslim
Sikh
Other Religion
No Religion
Not Stated
Not
Stated
47
Count
2011
Buddhist
National Citizenship Survey
Schools designated with a religious character
Percentage
of
Population
2011
Christian
Jewish
Recorded notifiable offences flagged ‘religion/faith’
Figure 56: Religion distribution in Northamptonshire – table
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/guide-method/census/2011/census-data/index.html
P a g e | 52
9. Socio-Economic Deprivation
An Overview
Socio-economic deprivation is considered to represent an important health determinant. This is supported by the notable difference which has
been recorded between life expectancy in the most deprived and the most affluent areas of England. The extent of socio-economic deprivation
in Northamptonshire is not as considerable as other parts of England, but specific pockets can be identified, particularly in the Corby and
Northampton areas.
Deprivation has a tendency to be concentrated in urban areas of the county; all of the Super Output Areas recording levels of deprivation
which place them in the top 20% most deprived in England are found in urban parts of Northamptonshire. Health deprivation however has a
higher occurrence at the most significant level in the county than overall deprivation. This is found within areas of Corby, Northampton, and to
a lesser extent Kettering. The link between health deprivation and other forms of deprivation considered determinants is by no means explicit.
Whilst 57% of those areas experiencing health deprivation amongst the top 30% in England also recorded similarly high levels of income
deprivation, for environment deprivation this was 22% and for barriers to services was just 8%.
This implies that health deprivation in Northamptonshire is partially linked to issues of income deprivation, but also in over 40% of cases is not
linked to this nor particularly strongly to other standard determinants. In understanding the relationship between areas of socio-economic
deprivation and health, and in particular unpicking the causal factors and how these manifest locally, a more detailed understanding of these
areas, their embedded and recurring health issues, and the source of these problems should be considered.
P a g e | 53
9.1 Socio-Economic Deprivation: Summary (IMD 2010)
P a g e | 54
Socio-economic Deprivation in Northamptonshire
The extent of socio-economic deprivation experienced by individuals and communities can
have a significant negative impact on their health. The correlation between reduced life
expectancy and increased socio-economic deprivation is significant; the range in life
expectancy by local area varies by up to 9 years in England. This variance in life expectancy
can be seen in something of a North-South divide which replicates the similar socioeconomic distribution in the UK48; it has also continued to widen, in particular between the
most significantly deprived communities and the general population49. Fundamentally,
health inequalities in populations across the globe are associated with a set of social
determinants which affect the conditions and environment in which individuals and
communities live50.
The health implications of deprivation extend broadly. These are linked to a number of
associated risks through behaviours and tendencies, including factors such as smoking,
alcohol consumption and diet, alongside the environmental impact of the quality of housing,
urban development, and the public realm. Such associated risks can lead directly or
indirectly to health issues or medical conditions, or may be a result of an underlying
condition with additional implications for the long term.
Whilst it occurs within the county, socio-economic deprivation is not prevalent across the
whole of Northamptonshire; in general deprivation levels around income, around child
poverty, and around older people fall below the proportions for England. Instead it is
unevenly dispersed across the seven lower tier authority areas. Using average deprivation
scores for Local Authorities taken from the Indices of Multiple Deprivation (IMD 51), none of
Northamptonshire’s localities indicate significant concentrations of deprivation that position
them within the 10% most deprived local areas of England. The most deprived locality is
Corby, which sits in the 2nd most deprived decile, followed by Northampton in the 4th decile
and Wellingborough in the 5th. The remaining four localities all fall within the 50% least
48
Source: ONS Life expectancy at birth and at age 65 for local areas in England and Wales 2010-12
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/subnational-health4/life-expectancy-at-birth-and-at-age-65-by-local-areas-inengland-and-wales/2010-12/index.html
49
Source: UK Parliament Public Accounts Committee (2010) Tackling inequalities in life expectancy in areas
with the worst health and deprivation
http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201011/cmselect/cmpubacc/470/470.pdf
50
Source: World Health Organisation (2008) Commission on social determinants of health: Final Report
http://www.who.int/social_determinants/thecommission/finalreport/en/
51
Indices of Multiple Deprivation = a study of deprived areas. This covers seven areas of deprivation: income,
employment, health & disability, education, skills & training, housing, crime and living environment.
P a g e | 55
deprived areas, with South Northamptonshire recorded as the 4th least deprived locality in
England.
(All the deprivation data in this section of the demography chapter refers to the IMD
201052.)
Over 88,000 Northamptonshire residents (13%) lived in the most deprived areas in England
(based on the LSOA). This is an increase of 3% from the last publication of the index. 76% of
this deprived population were income deprived.
Northamptonshire’s Local Authorities rank in this order:
1. Corby (Most deprived)
2. Wellingborough
3. Northampton
4. Kettering
5. Daventry
6. East Northamptonshire
7. South Northamptonshire (Least deprived)
This is the same countywide order of ranking as previously. All of Northamptonshire’s
districts now rank as more deprived in national terms than previously. Of
Northamptonshire’s 407 Super Output Areas (SOA), there are 17 that fall in the top 10%
most deprived in England. These are located in Corby (5), Kettering (2), Northampton (7)
and Wellingborough (3). This is 5 more than in 2007. There are a further 40 areas that fall
within the top 20% most deprived nationally. These are located in Corby (8), Daventry (1),
Kettering (4), Northampton (20) and Wellingborough (7). This is 8 more than previously.
75% of the areas that are the most deprived in 2010 were also amongst the most deprived
in 2007. There are 12 more Northamptonshire areas in the top 20% of the 2010 index than
in the 2007 index suggesting that the local picture may have worsened.
9.2 Countywide
The proportion of the district/borough population living in the most deprived areas in
Northamptonshire are as follows:







52
Corby 43%
Northampton 27%
Wellingborough 22%
Kettering 19%
East Northamptonshire 9%
Daventry 4%
South Northamptonshire had no areas in the county’s most deprived.
IMD 2010
P a g e | 56
6 LSOAs are new to the list of the top 20% most deprived in the county (Kettering 1, East
Northamptonshire 2, Corby 2, and Wellingborough 1), which means that they may be
relatively more deprived in 2010 than in 2007. 6 LSOAs have dropped out of the list of the
most deprived in the county (Northampton 4, Corby 1 and Wellingborough 1), which means
that they may be relatively less deprived in 2010 than in 2007.
Only 24% of Northamptonshire’s LSOAs have a better IMD ranking in 2010 than in 2007,
which means that the majority of LSOAs now rank as more deprived than previously. Results
varied by district, with a higher proportion of LSOA in South Northamptonshire and
Wellingborough showing improvement in rankings and a high proportion of worsening of
rankings in Corby and East Northamptonshire.
9.3 District level deprivation
Corby remains Northamptonshire’s most deprived district (ranking as the 51st most
deprived local authority out of 326 nationally), followed by Northampton (127th),
Wellingborough (138th), Kettering (186th), East Northamptonshire (229th), Daventry
(253rd) and South Northamptonshire (323rd). This order is the same as in 2007 when the
previous IMD was released. Direct comparisons of local authority ranks between 2007 and
2010 are not possible as there are 28 fewer local authorities in 2010 than 2007; however
using a percentage rank gives an indication (see Table beneath).
Figure 57: Average IMD ranking change by district
Average IMD rank % rank
LA Name
2010
2007
2010
Corby
51
57
16%
Daventry
253
273
78%
East Northamptonshire
229
246
71%
Kettering
186
206
57%
Northampton
127
129
39%
South Northamptonshire
323
323
99%
Wellingborough
138
165
43%
2007
19%
85%
76%
64%
40%
100%
51%
Change
IMD rank
-6
-20
-17
-20
-2
0
-27
% rank
-3
-7
-5
-7
-1
-1
-8
Figure 58: Proportion of LSOAs in each district by IMD 2010 decile
What do the colours mean?
Figure X shows that distribution of LSOA by deciles differs greatly between districts in
Northamptonshire. South Northamptonshire has no LSOA below the 5th decile indicating
that it is much less deprived than the other districts. Corby doesn’t have any LSOA in the
10th decile (least deprived) and has larger proportions of LSOA in the lower deciles
P a g e | 57
indicating a more deprived district. This is very similar to the pattern that was seen from the
IMD 2007
Small area deprivation – Where Northamptonshire sits nationally in 2010
57 Northamptonshire LSOAs fall among the 20% most deprived nationally.
Table 2 lists the numbers in each district, the proportion of the district’s LSOAs that fall in
the 1st and 2nd Decile in 2010 and the change in number and proportion from 2007 for
both 1st and 2nd Decile.
Figure 59: Numbers of LSOA in most deprived nationally, by district
Table X: IMD 2010: LSOA in 1st decile (1-10%) most deprived in England
A negative number in the change column indicates that the LSOA achieved a ‘worse’ rank in
ID2010 than in ID2007. Northamptonshire LSOA (94%) in the top 10% most deprived have a
worse rank nationally in 2010 than in 2007.
Figure 60: IMD 2010 – LSOA in the 2nd decile (11-20%) most deprived in England
A negative number in the change column indicates that the LSOA achieved a ‘worse’ rank in
ID2010 than in ID2007. Northamptonshire LSOA (94%) in the top 10% most deprived have a
worse rank nationally in 2010 than in 2007.
P a g e | 58
Figure 61: IMD 2010 – LSOA in the 2nd decile (11-20%) most deprived in England
9.4 Small area change in detail
P a g e | 59
Figure 62: District ranking (less or more deprived than national comparators)
Rank as less
deprived
Corby
Daventry
East
Northamptonshire
Kettering
Northampton
South
Northamptonshire
Wellingborough
Rank as more
deprived
14%
11%
17%
86%
89%
83%
28%
19%
40%
72%
81%
60%
45%
55%
The following maps show the distribution of deprivation across Northamptonshire, relative
to the national picture, by district. The basic pattern of deprivation remains similar to
previous years, with South Northamptonshire having the least deprivation and Corby, the
most. All the LSOA that fall in the top 20% most deprived in England are in urban areas,
most in the larger towns in the county.
Figure 63: Corby IMD
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Figure 64: Corby LSOA that fall in the county’s top 20% most deprived
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Figure 65: Daventry IMD
Figure 66: Daventry LSOA that fall in the county’s top 20% most deprived
Figure 67: East Northamptonshire IMD
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Figure 68: East Northants LSOA that fall in the county’s top 20% most deprived
Figure 69: Kettering IMD
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Figure 70: Kettering LSOA that fall in the county’s top 20% most deprived
Figure 71: Northampton IMD
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Figure 72: Northampton LSOA that fall in the county’s top 20% most deprived
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Figure 73: South Northamptonshire IMD
There are no South Northamptonshire LSOAs that fall in the county’s top 20% most
deprived. It is the only Northamptonshire district where this is the case.
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Figure 74: Wellingborough IMD
Figure 75: Wellingborough LSOA that fall in the county’s top 20% most deprived
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Considered on the basis of its 407 lower level Super Output Areas
(SOA)53, Northamptonshire has 17 areas which are recorded as
amongst the 10% most deprived in England and a further 43 in the
second most deprived 10%. Whilst a number of these are found
within Corby and Northampton, they can also be found in a further
four of the remaining five lower tier areas. The general distribution
of these deprived areas is focused around the urban centres of
Northamptonshire, in Daventry, Northampton, Rushden,
Wellingborough, Corby, Kettering and Rothwell (Fig. 76).
Figure 76: Deprivation in Northamptonshire by lower level Super
Output Area54
The extent of deprivation within those in the highest quintile
ranges significantly. The difference between the measured
deprivation in the most and the least deprived of
Northamptonshire’s SOAs in the top 20% , in excess of 35 points, is
greater than the difference between the least deprived of this
group and the most affluent SOA in Northamptonshire. Whilst the
extent of deprivation increases moving from the least to the most
deprived, the incline becomes noticeably sharp closer to the most
deprived, with significant jumps within the 20 most deprived SOAs
(Fig. 73).
54
Source: https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/english-indices-ofdeprivation
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10. Children
An Overview
The population of children, classified as those aged 0-15 years, is comparatively high in Northamptonshire, as a proportion of the population,
around 20%, 1% point higher than the figure for England. Whilst this proportion varies across the seven districts and boroughs, in six of these it
remains greater than the national figure. Within these lower tier areas particular concentration can be identified within a certain number of
super output areas. The distribution of age groups at the sub-county level shows three tendencies. Whilst some localities show a consistency
with the county profile, others divert from this on the basis of either a greater concentration of early years children or of children aged 10 and
over.
A number of children within the county have special support needs. These range from requirements for educational support to deal with
learning difficulties to more life-limiting illnesses and disabilities. Whilst the number with identified needs appears to be growing, the extent
to which this is related to a greater occurrence of conditions or a better system of understanding and diagnosis is not clear. Across key groups
with special needs – Special Educational Needs, Community Health Support clients, NEETS, and those recognised as disabled or with a longterm illness – the higher level of incidence in certain parts of Northamptonshire, specifically Corby, Northampton and Wellingborough,
suggests a correlation between socio-economic deprivation and additional needs.
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10.1 Children: Summary
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The health of children is a critical concern. Their general health and the associated exposures they experience during their upbringing has
repercussions on their future health alongside their broader life opportunities. This is embedded across their childhood, from teenage years
stretching back to their post-birth and pre-birth care. Recognition of this issue and the role it plays in building a healthier population alongside
managing potential future costs to the health system is a pivotal aspect of both national and local health policy.
The priority health issues for children vary significantly, emerging as they move between age groups and stages of development. Whilst the
principal health issues faced by this group and risks or factors associated can be identified, significant variation is likely to occur as issues
emerge in different ways throughout their upbringing. In earlier years obesity is an emerging issue which in turn has been linked back to early
years and even pre-birth care. Children’s high level of dependence, and therefore high exposure to influence, is interned in relationships they
have with their parents, schools, peers, and living environment. This has both demographic and spatial implications.
Figure 77: Northamptonshire child population by age group 201155
Aged 0-4
Total
Aged 5-9
Total
46012
Aged 10-14
Total
41194
Aged 15-19
Total
42030
Total
42500
171736
Figure 78: Northamptonshire birth rate projections56
2012
8900
2013
9000
2014
9000
2015
9000
2016
9100
2017
9200
2018
9300
55
Source: ONS Census 2011 Age Structure https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/census/2011/ks102ew
56
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/taxonomy/index.html?nscl=Births+and+Fertility
2019
9300
2020
9300
P a g e | 72
This age distribution also shows some concentration of certain groups within specific
locations. The higher birth rate and therefore proportion of 0-4 year olds is concentrated
within four lower tier areas; Wellingborough and Kettering to a marginal extent and
Northampton and Corby more significantly. A converse trend is apparent in Daventry, East
Northamptonshire and South Northamptonshire with larger concentrations of the groups
aged 10+ (Fig. 79). The variance from the county distribution of concentration suggests the
lower tier areas can potentially be divided into three profiles; relative proximity to the
Northamptonshire picture (Kettering and Wellingborough), significant diversion on the basis
of early years children (Corby and Northampton) and significant diversion in later year
children (Daventry, East and South Northamptonshire). In terms of the management of
demand and provision of support, two critical issues emerge. The first of these is around the
support of child population concentrations and the testing of a presumption that key
concerns within specific groups occur in these localities in line with proportional
representation. Second is the mobility of this population and whether the higher numbers
of older aged children in parts of Northamptonshire is linked to historic localised growth
trends or broader county-based upward housing mobility.
Figure 79: Distribution of child age groups by District/ Borough57
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
24.3%
26.1%
26.2%
23.9%
24.7%
24.3%
23.8%
24.7%
23.9%
26.3%
25.8%
24.2%
22.5%
26.9%
24.8%
24.5%
24.3%
23.8%
24.7%
23.3%
25.4%
24.2%
24.0%
23.4%
24.2%
27.2%
29.4%
23.3%
27.2%
26.8%
23.0%
28.8%
Aged 0-4 Total
Aged 5-9 Total
Aged 10-14 Total
Aged 15-19 Total
For full detail for population by five year age groups please see appendix 4.
57
Source: ONS Census 2011 http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/census/2011-census/key-statistics-for-localauthorities-in-england-and-wales/rpt-ethnicity.html
P a g e | 73
10.2 Children in ethnic groups
The growing population of children within Northamptonshire is being partly underwritten by its increasingly diverse population of ethnic
groups. As at the 2011 Census White British groups represented just fewer than 86% of the county’s population, but amongst those aged 15
and under this was only 82.5%. Whilst for the most part relatively marginal numbers, the concentration of children amongst specific ethnic
groups is in some cases significantly higher than their representation of the whole population. This is particularly prominent amongst White
and Black Caribbean, White and Asian, Bangladeshi, and African populations. With specific social, cultural and dietary characteristics this may
produce a set of additional demands in specific parts of Northamptonshire, particularly in Northampton and Wellingborough where the
population of ethnic groups is more prominent. With expectations that ethnic populations are to rise heading toward 2050 this will likely
provide additional pressure, not only responding to the distinct needs of these groups but also to requirements for additional support such as
for pupils whose first language is not English. In 2013 the percentage of children from ethnic populations designated as ‘in need’ stood at 21%
(Fig. 80) against a proportional representation in the population of 17.5%. The top five languages spoken in schools in Northamptonshire other
than English (figure 81) reflect contemporary immigration trends, with a large number of Polish speaking children (2,405). The number of
children who speak English as a first language is 93,230, compared to 12,046 who have a first language which is not English.
Figure 80: Children in need 2013: ethnicity distribution58
58
59
Source: Extract from CHMAT 2013 http://www.chimat.org.uk/
Figure 81: Top 5 Languages spoken in schools other than English59
Main Language
Number of
children
Polish
2,405
Bengali
831
Romanian
466
Lithuanian
436
Somalian
428
BIPI Children’s team
P a g e | 74
10.3 Children with Special Educational Needs
There has been a growing trend toward the recognition of a number of special support needs amongst the child population. Whilst a number
of these may be highly visible in terms of physical disabilities, others around long-term special educational needs and mental health will be less
easily identified. Both healthcare and other forms of support will need awareness of and planning for not only continued provision but
accommodation of developments in the treatment of specific conditions alongside the ongoing introduction and segmentation of such needs.
Special Educational Needs (SEN) within schools in Northamptonshire is calculated at 8,135 places. This represents around 6.5% of those within
the 5-19 age bracket. The occurrence across localities shows notable variance, with higher proportions in schools in Wellingborough, Corby,
and Northampton (Fig. 82); the extent to which this represents a concentration of issues within these areas or simply a more sophisticated
process for identifying and supporting SEN would need further examination.
Mental Health has become an increasingly important part of healthcare, recognising the impact undiagnosed conditions have on individuals as
well as their social and economic impacts. Amongst children, as with the adult population, these appear to have increased over time, although
the extent to which this is representative of a growing occurrence or simply better forms of diagnosis and more mainstream recognition is
unclear. Similar to the adult population whilst mental health may affect anyone, there is a higher tendency within specific groups at risk of
exclusion including those experiencing deprivation, people with disabilities, and those from BME or LGBT communities.
Within Northamptonshire a higher than expected number of children are known to local mental health support services and looked after by
the County Council; similarly the rate of hospital admission due to mental illness in Northamptonshire is almost treble of any other sub-region
in the East Midlands60. The distribution of demand amongst those aged 19 years and below for community health support is highest in
Northampton; the remaining districts and boroughs show a similar level of demand, although the extent to which this represents unmet or
unidentified demand is not clear (Fig. 83).
60
Source: PHAST (2014) Health needs of children and young people in Northamptonshire, with emphasis on mental health
http://www.google.co.uk/url?url=http://www.northamptonshireanalysis.co.uk/resource/view%3FresourceId%3D653&rct=j&frm=1&q=&esrc=s&sa=U&ei=ulYRVN7KLpHPaI
SJgugO&ved=0CCUQFjAA&usg=AFQjCNGXDnWRnGBY2c7ebV6ZPtGaweFHnQ
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Figure 82: SEN in Northamptonshire Districts / Boroughs (2014)61
Northamptonshire
Corby
Daventry
East Northamptonshire
Kettering
Northampton
South
Northamptonshire
Wellingborough
61
62
Aged 5-19
125,724
11,164
14,274
16,397
16,742
37,995
15,686
13,466
SEN Support
8,135
811
767
1,011
970
2,677
763
1,136
% of 5-19
6.5%
7.3%
5.4%
6.2%
5.8%
7.0%
4.9%
Figure 83: Community Health Clients aged 0-19 years by
District / Borough (2014)62
Locality
Corby
Daventry & S. Northamptonshire
E. Northamptonshire
Kettering
Northampton
Wellingborough
Clients 0-19 yrs
278
649
296
407
1256
280
% 0-19 pop.
1.8%
1.7%
1.4%
1.8%
2.3%
1.5%
8.4%
Source: BIPI Children team
Source: PHAST (2014) Health needs of children and young people in Northamptonshire, with emphasis on mental health
http://www.google.co.uk/url?url=http://www.northamptonshireanalysis.co.uk/resource/view%3FresourceId%3D653&rct=j&frm=1&q=&esrc=s&sa=U&ei=ulYRVN7KLpHPaI
SJgugO&ved=0CCUQFjAA&usg=AFQjCNGXDnWRnGBY2c7ebV6ZPtGaweFHnQ
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10.4 Looked After Children
The number of children in care within the county has shown a significant increase during the past decade. As of 2014, cases of children in care
stood at 817, over 50% higher than the number of cases in 2005 (Fig. 84). Across the districts and boroughs the number of children in care
varies; there is however a more significant level of demand found in the urban areas of Northampton, Corby, Kettering and Wellingborough.
Figure 84: Looked After Children 2005-201463
900
817
795
800
700
735
729
645
700
600
Figure 85: Cause of children entering care (2014)64
565 555
535 555
other, not known or not stated
absent parenting
family low income
socially unacceptable behaviour
6.1%
3.2%
0.5%
2.0%
500
family dysfunction
400
18.1%
family in acute stress
300
parent's disability or illness
200
own disability or illness
100
abuse or neglect
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
63
Source: BIPI children’s team
64
Source: BIPI children’s team
9.6%
3.3%
11.8%
45.6%
P a g e | 77
The age profile for children in care shows the highest level of demand in those aged 10 to 18. This group represents 61% of cases in care within
Northamptonshire. Considering the increase in child population in particular in the localities of Northampton and Corby, there may be
expectations that demand for this service increases within the next 5 to 10 years as the post-2008 surge in births reaches this age bracket.
The reasons for children becoming looked after are varied. For Northamptonshire most prominent amongst these cases are concerns of abuse
or neglect, representing 46% of children in care, followed by family dysfunction (18%) and disability or illness (12%) (Fig. 85). Managing the
occurrence of looked-after children within the county extends beyond the provision planning of services, with a number of these causes linked
to wider socio-economic conditions such as long-term or institutional deprivation.
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10.5 Young People Not in Education Employment or Training
Those aged 16-18 who are not in employment, education, or training (NEETs) have been determined a priority group for intervention and
support. NEETs in Northamptonshire during the 2013-14 year varied across the period, influenced by not only changes in individual
employment status but also periods of formal registration in training and education, but stood between 5.7% and 7.7% of the 16-18
population. The proportion of 16-18 year old NEETS is most pronounced in Corby, in Wellingborough and in Northampton where it is most
consistently high (Fig. 86).
Figure 86: 16-18 year old NEETs 2013-1465
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
Apr-13
65
Connexions Northamptonshire
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
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10.6 Children with disabilities
The number of children identified as having a disability or long-term illness is relatively low in Northamptonshire standing at 3.6% of the 0-15
population, although this is in line with the proportional distribution for England. The higher proportion of children within Northamptonshire
does however suggest a greater per capita demand for support. The incidence of child disability is relatively consistent across the county, with
two specific diversions from this; in Corby it is notably higher at 4.2% whilst in South Northamptonshire it is significantly lower at 2.5% (Fig.
87). The polarised extent of deprivation experienced in these two localities suggests that whilst not always the principal factor, a higher level of
socio-economic deprivation may contribute to the progression of specific conditions and their effect on individuals’ lives.
Figure 87: Children (0-15) with disability / long-term illness (2011) (%)66
4.5%
4.0%
3.5%
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
66
4.2%
3.6%
3.4%
3.8%
3.6%
3.9%
3.6%
3.7%
2.5%
ONS Census 2011 Long-term health problem or disability https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/census/2011/qs303ew
P a g e | 80
Figure 88: Children with longstanding Disabilities or illness (2011)
Boys
Figure 89: Children with severe disability or illness (2011)
Girls
10000
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
0 to 4
5 to 9
10 to 14
15 t0 19
Longstanding Illness or disability
Figures 88 and 89 illustrate the potential prevalence rates of disabilities in Northamptonshire children, based on the estimates of the Child and
Maternal Health intelligence Network67. It is clear that severe disabilities are much less common, and that generally speaking there is a higher
percentage of boys who are disabled than girls.
67
http://atlas.chimat.org.uk/IAS/profiles/profile?profileId=44&geoTypeId=4
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11. Young Adults
An Overview
Comparatively the proportion of young adults (18-30), resident in Northamptonshire is low. Northampton is the only part of the county which
shows a higher concentration than the England average. The distribution within the county replicates the national tendency amongst this
demographic for preferring urban living; the concentrations at super output area are found in or on the edges of the urban centres of
Northampton, Corby, Wellingborough, Rushden and Kettering.
The proportion of Young Adults with higher qualifications at NVQ level 3 and particularly level 4 falls notably below the national average, and
the occupational structure shows a high reliance amongst this group on lower level employment. Whilst JSA claimant numbers are relatively
low, there are particular issues in certain parts of the county including Corby, Daventry and Wellingborough. The higher prevalence of forms of
unemployment in these areas may be indicative of different issues of access to employment on the basis of socio-economic or locational
marginalisation.
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11.1 Young Adults: Summary (2013)
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The young adult demographic (the age 18-30 group) may not be one traditionally associated
with health risks. There are however a number of prevailing issues faced by this
demographic with the potential to seriously impact life chances, impede their quality of life,
and increase the chances of dependence on the health system at a later stage of their life. In
terms of behaviours associated with health issues these can be most prevalent amongst
young adults; people are most likely to be smokers between the ages of 20 and 3468, those
aged 16 to 24 were most likely to have drunk very heavily at least once a week 69, and
similarly the proportion of this group who used illegal drugs was almost double that of the
figure for the broader 16-59 age group70.
Exposure to these stimulants brings a set of associated risks with it. Alongside the direct
short- and long-term health implication, ranging from addiction to respiratory disease,
cancer and cardiovascular disease, young adults face risks to their health ranging from the
mental health impacts of drug use, increasingly associated with psychotic disorders71, to
STI’s and unwanted pregnancies, to involvement in violent crime in either social or domestic
settings. Young adults represent a major user and client of key areas of expenditure for the
NHS; mental health support is the largest single cost within the NHS72 and for A&E
departments the highest demand came from 20-24 year olds, and of the 4 highest set of
user, only the 1-4 age bracket diverted from concentration outside of ages 15 and 2973.
Alongside the growing issues of obesity and related diagnosis of diabetes there are a broad
set of issues concentrated within this demographic with potentially far reaching
consequences.
68
Source: Action on Smoking and Health (2014) Smoking statistics April 2014
http://ash.org.uk/files/documents/ASH_107.pdf
69
ONS (2013) Drinking habits amongst adults 2012 http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/ghs/opinions-and-lifestylesurvey/drinking-habits-amongst-adults--2012/stb-opn-drinking-2012.html
70
Health & Social Care Information Centre (2013) Statistics on drug misuse: England 2013
http://www.hscic.gov.uk/catalogue/PUB12994/drug-misu-eng-2013-rep.pdf
71
Royal College of Psychiatrists
http://www.rcpsych.ac.uk/mentalhealthinformation/mentalhealthproblems/alcoholanddrugs/cannabisandme
ntalhealth.aspx
72
Nuffield Trust http://www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk/data-and-charts/nhs-spending-top-three-diseasecategories-england
73
Source: The Health Foundation / Nuffield Trust (2014) Focus on: A&E attendances
http://www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk/publications/focus-on-ae-attendances
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11.2 Socio-Economic Demographics of Young Adults
The socio-economic profile of Young Adults in Northamptonshire indicates a higher level of
concentration in lower income, earning, and skills groups when compared with national
data. Across the workforce of the county the number of people with higher level
qualifications is comparatively low, with a representation of people with no qualifications
and NVQ level 2 qualifications (Fig. 90). Whilst for England the proportion of residents
holding higher level qualifications marginally rises in the 16-34 group, for Northamptonshire
this figure declines by almost 2%.
This difference is more pronounced within certain localities. Strong concentrations of NVQ
level 4+ qualifications in Daventry and South Northamptonshire drop significantly for the 1634 age group, and the only locality where this increases is Northampton, potentially related
to its stronger attraction to this demographic as a principal urban area.
Figure 90: Qualification profile 16-34 years (2011)74
Northamptonshire
22.3%
15.2%
England
22.5%
13.3%
0%
20%
16.6%
15.2%
40%
11.9%
24.1%
12.4%
60%
27.4%
80%
No qualifications
Level 1 qualifications
Level 2 qualifications
Level 3 qualifications
100%
The distribution of employment within the age group 16-24 indicates a greater reliance on
employment within lower level occupation groups in Northamptonshire. This is particularly
strong in the areas of Wellingborough, Daventry, and particularly Corby. At the other end of
the Northamptonshire occupational scale is South Northamptonshire, which more closely
replicates the national picture showing a more even distribution across occupational groups
and a stronger concentration in the top scale (Fig. 91).
74
Source: ONS Census 2011Highest level of qualification by sex by age
http://www.nomisweb.co.uk/census/2011/dc5102ew
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Figure 91: Employment by occupational group (2011)75
Wellingborough
16.0%
20.9%
South Northamptonshire
20.2%
Northampton
18.5%
20.2%
Kettering
17.6%
21.1%
East Northamptonshire
18.0%
22.0%
Daventry
17.6%
21.7%
Corby
13.5%
Northamptonshire
23.0%
16.0%
17.7%
England
10%
Group 1
24.3%
35.5%
25.8%
33.4%
27.9%
33.4%
26.6%
29.2%
31.5%
32.3%
38.1%
33.6%
20.8%
20%
28.7%
32.5%
20.7%
21.2%
0%
34.4%
30%
Group 2
28.1%
33.9%
40%
50%
Group 3
60%
24.0%
70%
80%
90% 100%
Group 4
This limited skills provision and higher dependence on low skilled, low paid employment
amongst young adults can be linked to insecure employment and high turnover industries.
An outcome of this can be a tendency for higher or more frequent levels of unemployment.
Nationally the rise in unemployment amongst particularly the 16-25 age group has been of
critical concern, with levels measured in 2011 in excess of 1 million, equivalent to 20% of
this group unemployed.
In terms of JSA claimant numbers in both the under 35 and under 25 groups,
Northamptonshire is consistently below the national average. Proportions for claimants,
claims under 6 months, and claims over 6 months all are lower than those found for
England; this is however more marginal for the under 25 group (Appendix 2). More localised
issues emerge within this data. The proportion of claimants aged under 25 is notably high in
both Corby and Daventry, which alongside East Northamptonshire also display a high
proportion of those claiming JSA for under 6 months. Also in Corby there are signs of long
term unemployment amongst both under 25’s and under 35’s being a problem. In terms of
the proportion of those under 25 claiming long term JSA, this is only in excess of the
national profile in Wellingborough, a phenomenon which extends into the under 35 group.
75
Source: ONS Census 2011 occupation by economic activity by age (Group 1 highest occupational group,
Group 4 the lowest) http://www.nomisweb.co.uk/census/2011/dc5102ew
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12. Older People
An introduction
Whilst the population of Northamptonshire continues to grow, this is in line with national trends witnessing an increasingly ‘top-heavy’
population. Significant improvements in the lifestyle and quality of life have contributed toward people having longer lives and staying healthy
for longer, but a prominent issue exists around the extent of support demands amongst this group, particularly as they become more frail and
vulnerable from the age of 85 on.
This age group has a tendency to live in less densely populated areas. This presents a problem not only around access to services but also
around the impact of isolation on both physical and mental health. The independence of this group, particularly those amongst the more
affluent, becomes seriously compromised as they pass 85, requiring a form of support and service engagement they may be unfamiliar with. In
the long term the compromising of this personal independence may be compounded by a declining level of financial independence as pension
incomes and savings decline and the impact of wider pension shortfalls becomes apparent.
Whilst significant attention within this group is directed at the high cost of intervention for those aged 85+, there is evidence of variation in life
expectancy both by location and by social group. The lower number of those aged 85+ within certain localities of Northamptonshire may be
more indicative of a significantly lower level of life expectancy linked to institutional health issues embedded in these communities.
P a g e | 87
12.1 Older People: Summary (2013)
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The population of the UK is ageing at a significant rate. Whilst the overall population of England grew by around 15% between 1983 and 2013,
the population of over 65’s grew at more than twice this rate. The growth in this population has a number of implications for the management
and delivery of both direct health and broader support services. As the population of retired people makes up a growing proportion of the
population, so the ratio of people with support needs increases with a smaller proportion of working age adults to provide this support; this
brings with it significant issues in the management of such support services. Older people face a number of care issues rooted in the ongoing
decline of their physical and mental health. Part of this is a general organic process as they reach the end of their lives, whilst others are
caused by institutional personal behaviours such as smoking or drinking and socio-environmental conditions linked to issues such as mobility,
isolation, domestic environment and wider social and environmental conditions. Alongside this, the demographic of the 65+ group has
significantly evolved, with segmentations based around age and socio-economic status determining extent of support as well as general quality
of life in old age.
12.2 Critical groups for service demand amongst older people
Whilst the surge in the over 65 population is partly explained by the ‘baby boom’ after World War II, this has been supplemented by the
improvement in longevity across the UK. Significant variances can be identified between areas of deprivation and affluence, but the general
trend has been for an increased lifespan, with the average life expectancy at 65 increasing by between 18 and 20 years in the period from 1982
to 201276. This longevity brings with it a number of issues for both individuals and the support services on which they increasingly become
dependant. As people become older they also become more frail and vulnerable, with an increasing number aged 85+ falling into this category.
This also has an impact on personal income and the extent to which they can remain financially independent. Living alone also becomes an
issue, resulting in amongst other things increasing social isolation with implications for individuals’ mental health and wellbeing.
76
ONS National Life Tables http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/lifetables/national-life-tables/2010---2012/index.html
P a g e | 89
The population aged 85+ in Northamptonshire represent just fewer than 13% of the 65+ age group, in line with but marginally below the
national profile. Populations within the lower tier areas are more significant in the areas of Northampton and Kettering (Fig. 92)
Figure 92: 65+ population by age sub-group77
Wellingborough
87.6%
12.4%
South Northamptonshire
87.9%
12.1%
Northampton
86.3%
13.7%
Kettering
86.0%
14.0%
86.8%
East Northamptonshire
13.2%
Daventry
88.6%
11.4%
Corby
89.2%
10.8%
Northamptonshire
87.2%
12.8%
England
86.7%
13.3%
80%
85%
Aged 65-84
For absolute numbers in five year age bands please
see appendix 4.
90%
95%
100%
Aged 85+
The need for and therefore cost of both social and hospital care peaks within this age group, the majority coming within the social care bracket
as it escalates after the age of 7578. Part of this will be committed through residential care but a key aspect will be the provision of domiciliary
care. The distribution of this group and tendency to live in rural parts of the county have implications on access to support and its effective
provision; whilst some concentration of older people in urban areas can be noted, this is due mainly to location of residential and nursing care
77
ONS Mid-Year population Estimates 2013 https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/query/construct/summary.asp?mode=construct&version=0&dataset=31
78
The Nuffield Trust http://www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk/data-and-charts/average-care-costs-age-band-last-year-life
P a g e | 90
units(Fig. 93 and 94). The demands presented by this distribution will extend as this population is expected to almost double during the period
2014-2030, and will represent an increasing proportion of the 65+ age group, growing from 25% to 33%79.
Figure 93: Population aged 85+ by number (2011)80
Figure 94: Population 85+ by (%) concentration (2011)81
The growth within this demographic and the difference in life expectancy between men and women will also lead to a greater number of
people living alone. Whilst part of this is representative of societal change ranging from emerging cultural preferences and the fragmentation
79
Projecting Older People Population Information http://www.poppi.org.uk
80
Northamptonshire Analysis http://www.northamptonshireanalysis.co.uk/bytheme?themeId=6&themeName=Population and Census
81
Northamptonshire Analysis http://www.northamptonshireanalysis.co.uk/bytheme?themeId=6&themeName=Population and Census
P a g e | 91
of the family unit, the prolonged lifespan of individuals following bereavement will also be a factor. Whilst proportionally the percentage of
older people living alone is predicted to remain relatively consistent, the number will rise by almost 30% for those aged 65-74 and by almost
80% for those aged 75+ (Fig. 95). This is particularly significant for the female population aged 65+ who are projected to consistently represent
around 70% of this group.
Figure 95: Population 65+ living alone projections82
Population aged 65+
Population aged 65+
living alone
% living alone
Population aged 6574
Population aged 6574 living alone
% living alone
Population aged 75+
Population aged 75+
living alone
% living alone
82
2014
2015
2020
2025
2030
121,700 125,400 142,400 160,800 184,000
43,233 44,477 51,051 59,915 68,761
36%
69,600
35%
72,100
36%
78,400
37%
78,700
37%
89,500
17,480
18,120
19,740
19,770
22,530
25%
52,100
25,753
25%
53,300
26,357
25%
64,000
31,311
25%
82,100
40,145
25%
94,500
46,231
49%
49%
49%
49%
49%
Projecting Older People Population Information http://www.poppi.org.uk/
P a g e | 92
12.3 Dementia
Dementia is a word used to describe a group of symptoms including memory loss, confusion, mood changes and difficulty with day to day
tasks. There are many causes of dementia, with Alzheimer’s the most common. Caring for people with dementia is an ever increasing burden
as people live longer due to improving health in society. Figure 96 beneath illustrates the most recent predictions for dementia in older people
in Northamptonshire.
Figure 96: Dementia prevalence in Northamptonshire (numbers)83
Year
People aged 65-69
People aged 70-74
People aged 75-79
People aged 80-84
People aged 85-89
People aged 90 and over
Total population aged 65 and over
2014
2015
2020
2025
2030
515
524
484
523
618
773
821 1,080
1,002
1,093
1,243 1,273 1,568
2,098
1,956
1,827 1,858 2,163
2,717
3,673
1,972 2,011 2,284
2,756
3,539
1,674 1,764 2,177
2,763
3,647
8,005 8,250 9,755
11,858
14,526
With the population of people having dementia predicted to nearly double in the next 15 years, this is an area which is of strategic importance.
Adult Social Care spends a lot of money of residential and domiciliary care for people suffering with dementia. Public Health has a large role in
terms of education and advice about dementia, as this population can be better cared for when symptoms are identified more early, and
diagnosis and treatment can begin. This group of older people is large and it is going to get bigger. As people get older we are more likely to
83
http://www.poppi.org.uk/index.php?pageNo=334&areaID=8386&loc=8386
P a g e | 93
develop dementia, it cannot be completely prevented but research suggests that simple things like healthy lifestyle factors significantly lower
risk.84
NHS England measure and publish the numbers of people on the dementia register at CCG level85. When these numbers are compared to the
estimated prevalence rates dementia diagnosis rates can be worked out. The dementia diagnosis rates illustrate the percentage of probable
dementia sufferers who have been identified by the CCG and put on the dementia register.
-
The dementia diagnosis rate for Nene CCG is 59.37%.
-
The dementia diagnosis rate for Corby CCG is 86.67%
This means that there are many people in Northamptonshire who have undiagnosed dementia, especially in Nene CCG (Northamptonshire
excluding Corby). As prevalence rates of dementia increase over time, Public Health needs to promote initiatives aimed at diagnosing this
population early.
84
http://www.alzheimersresearchuk.org//dementia-riskfactors/#acc1/
85
https://www.primarycare.nhs.uk/
P a g e | 94
13. Minority Groups / Groups at risk of exclusion
An Introduction
Whilst Northamptonshire is not highly diverse in terms of population, a number of residents from quite different backgrounds with disparate
needs are resident within the county. These populations experience different levels of integration with the wider community and with service
providers, and similarly face differing types and extents of social support networks through which they can address the various health issues
emerging within their communities; these in a number of cases emerge as institutions which serve to reinforce certain problems.
An issue amongst these communities is the extent of need driven by both the prevalence of the communities within Northamptonshire and
the enduring nature of the health issues. These can and have proven changeable with implications for how both populations and their needs
are interpreted. The evolving profile of the non-white British community within the county has seen a transition in recurring needs requiring
more detailed understanding of the sub—groups. The transformation of interpretations of disability has extended this demographic and
broadened the form of intervention required.
Within certain minority groups the level of localised knowledge is very limited. As a result a number of presumptions have to be made in the
interpretation of both the demographic profile and the principal support or intervention requirements of each community. Similarly a number
of minority communities may not be addressed within this chapter and perhaps represent a group in need of support or with a particularly
embedded issue healthcare providers face problems in dealing with. To this end what is required is more detailed analysis and examination of
the minority groups outlined here and the ones not included.
P a g e | 95
13.1 Minority Groups / Groups at risk of exclusion: Summary (2011)
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Across Northamptonshire there are a number of minority communities. The location and
concentration of these can vary significantly between groups, ranging from archetypal
‘ghettoisation’ of specific cultural groups within highly localised urban areas to more
dispersed and even transient forms. Alongside this broad spatial patterning the key health
issues of the various groups consolidated under the minority classification can be quite
diverse, rooted as much in socio-cultural behaviours, traditions and institutions as in their
specific socio-economic and spatial context. As a result the principal issues faced across
these groups are broad, becoming more distinctive as each group is considered
independently of one another. Whilst not exclusive, within the minority classification key
groups of concern are considered to be the BME, Lesbian Gay Bisexual and Transgender
(LGBT), people with disabilities, and Traveller communities alongside offenders and asylum
seekers.
13.2 Black and Minority Ethnic Communities
The Black and Minority Ethnic (BME) community within Northamptonshire has been
growing at a fast rate. Whilst the population of Northamptonshire is growing at a strong
rate, this is partially dependent on increasing BME groups, with the Black community
growing by 100%, the Asian community by 85%, and the mixed origin community by 82%
between 2001 and 2011. The age profile within this group is potentially of critical
importance within a county with an increasingly ‘top-heavy’ age profile.
BME is a broad classification which incorporates a number of different groups with highly
distinct cultural differences. It is also a dynamic group which evolves over time. The
constitution of this group changes as nationalised groups move within and between
localities and regions and as new groups enter the country as a result of various geo-political
influences. Amongst non-white British communities resident in Northamptonshire, using a
broad classification, the largest is the Asian community, estimated at around 25,000 in the
2011 Census. This is followed by the Black community estimated at 17,000 and the Mixed
ethnic groups with 14,000 (Fig. 97). Recent trends since 2004 for migration from accession
state within the European Union have led to an emergence of a further group from Eastern
European countries. Within Northamptonshire this group stood at around 21,500 as at
2001; this figure only includes immigrants and does not include those nationalised and
second or third generation.
P a g e | 97
Figure 97: BME Communities in Northamptonshire (2011)86
Asian
Eastern European (EU accession states migrants)
Black
Mixed ethnicity
Other ethnic group
25,427
21,327
16,923
14,182
2,598
The BME community does show some signs of locating within certain parts of the county.
Concentrations of non-white British groups are most commonly found within urban areas, in
particular Northampton, Kettering and Wellingborough. Rather than evenly distributed
within these areas they show a tendency to be concentrated in specific super output areas
(Fig. 98 and 99). A similar trend is identified within the Eastern European migrant
community; the East Midlands and East of England areas have seen a particularly high level
of in-migration. Corby had in 2013 the 11th highest proportion of residents from EU
Accession States, and a localised concentration within a handful of SOAs was evident in both
Corby and Northampton87.
Figure 98: BME (non-white British) population by number (2011)88
86
ONS Census 2011 Ethnic Group https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/census/2011/ks201ew;
87
Northamptonshire County Council (2013): Residents born in the EU Accession States
88
Northamptonshire Analysis
http://www.northamptonshireanalysis.co.uk/bytheme?themeId=6&themeName=Population and Census
P a g e | 98
Figure 99: BME (non-white British) population by concentration (2011)89
Across the BME communities in Northamptonshire a very different age profile exists in
comparison to the White British community. This sees a significantly lower proportion of the
population within the 65+ age bracket and a greater proportion of younger adults and
children. The age structure of the Asian community for example has over 71% of the
population aged 16-64, against an overall population profile of 63%. The proportion of
children amongst the mixed ethnic origin groups is over double that amongst white groups,
and amongst residents from the EU Accession States the proportion aged 16-35 is 2.5 times
higher than for the general population. Within Northamptonshire schools the proportion of
students from non-White British groups stands at 17%, almost double the profile of the
general county population. This is particularly pronounced in primary schools where the
figure again goes up to almost 19%90.
Whilst the BME community is broad and covers a number of cultures and ethnic groups,
there is an additional distinction within it in terms of the extent of integration with general
support infrastructure. A number of factors will influence this, but one such factor is the
difference between immigrant and nationalised populations, and within this their level of
spoken English. The number for whom English is not their main language stands at around
89
Northamptonshire Analysis
http://www.northamptonshireanalysis.co.uk/bytheme?themeId=6&themeName=Population and Census
90
Department for Education (2012) https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/schools-pupils-and-theircharacteristics-january-2012
P a g e | 99
9,250 or 6% of the County’s population, with an estimated 1.4% unable to speak English well
or at all91. The number of children within schools for whom English is considered a second
language is higher still, standing at 9% of all students and 10.5% of those in primary
schools92. This incidence of English as a second language and poorly spoken English is most
prominent within Northampton, Corby and Wellingborough (Fig. 100).
Figure 100: English as a 2nd language in Northamptonshire and Districts / Boroughs
(2011)93
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
Main language is not English
Cannot speak English or English well
This demographic is predicted to continue growing in Western Europe, with some
projections suggesting the proportion of population made up of BME groups could reach up
to 40% by 205094. The extent to which this is derived from natural growth within existing
communities, the extension of groups of mixed ethnicity through cross-cultural
relationships, or ongoing immigration trends underwritten by enhanced rights of movement
or geo-political instability is unclear.
91
ONS Census 2011 DC2105EW - Proficiency in English by sex by age ONS 2011
92
Department for Education (2012) https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/schools-pupils-and-theircharacteristics-january-2012
93
ONS Census 2011 DC2105EW - Proficiency in English by sex by age
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/data/dataset-finder//q/dcDetails/Census/DC2105EW?p_p_lifecycle=1&_FOFlow1_WAR_FOFlow1portlet_dataset_navigation=datas
etCollectionDetails
94
Immigration, population and ethnicity: the UK in international perspective (2013), The Migration
Observatory, University of Oxford http://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/briefings/immigration-populationand-ethnicity-uk-international-perspective
P a g e | 100
13.3 People with disabilities
Defining disability is by no means straightforward, with a number of
factors contributing to where individuals stand on what is a
spectrum-approach to definition. A number of allowances and
support are available on the basis of long-term ill health as well as a
permanent disability, whilst the extent to which support is offered
for permanent physical disabilities depends on their severity,
nature and potential impact on independent living.
Figure 101: Population with long-term health problem or disability
(2011)95
20.0%
18.0%
16.0%
14.0%
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
As at the last Census (2011) an estimated 112,000 people, or 16%
of the population had some form of disability or long-term illness
which restricted their day-to-day activities. The distribution found a
stronger concentration of this demographic in the more urban
areas of Corby, Northampton and Wellingborough (Fig. 101). Split
between two distinct groups – those with day-to-day activities
limited a little and those limited a lot – for most localities this
recorded stronger concentrations in those with less limiting
disabilities. The exception here is Corby, where the split was almost
exactly 50:50.
9.0%
7.2%
8.9%
8.9%
9.0%
9.3%
9.4%
6.6%
6.9%
7.7%
Day-to-day activities limited a lot
95
8.7%
7.2%
9.9%
8.2%
5.8%
7.9%
Day-to-day activities limited a little
ONS Census 2011 QS303EW - Long-term health problem or disability
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/census/2011-census/key-statistics-andquick-statistics-for-wards-and-output-areas-in-england-and-wales/rftqs303ew.xls&rct=j&frm=1&q=&esrc=s&sa=U&ei=tIsRVPGQEMroaM_Agtg
O&ved=0CBQQFjAA&usg=AFQjCNGlPnn1yrZ_hpxlqI0-ffmwNXSpLw
P a g e | 101
The occurrence of limiting long-term illness or disability dramatically escalates with age.
Across an overall population proportion of 16%, for the age groups to 55 years the
occurrence falls below this. After this threshold the incidence escalates with some dramatic
jumps in each 5 year band from the age of 70 onwards (Fig. 102). From this perspective,
long-term illness and disability are an age specific phenomenon, the incidence and demand
of which can be expected to increase as the top end age groups continue to grow.
Figure 102: Occurrence of long-term illness and disability by age group (2011)96
90.0%
84.5%
80.0%
69.6%
70.0%
60.0%
54.4%
50.0%
42.4%
40.0%
31.8%
25.2%
20.1%
15.5%
20.0% 15.6%
12.3%
10.0%
8.3%
4.7%5.1%5.1%5.3%6.3%
10.0%
1.9%3.9%
30.0%
96
85+
80 to 84
75 to 79
70 to 74
65 to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50 to 54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35 to 39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
0 to 4
All ages
0.0%
ONS Census 2011 LC3101EWls - Long term health problem or disability by sex by age
http://www.google.co.uk/url?url=http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/census/2011-census/keystatistics-and-quick-statistics-for-wards-and-output-areas-in-england-and-wales/rftqs303ew.xls&rct=j&frm=1&q=&esrc=s&sa=U&ei=tIsRVPGQEMroaM_AgtgO&ved=0CBQQFjAA&usg=
AFQjCNGlPnn1yrZ_hpxlqI0-ffmwNXSpLw
P a g e | 102
13.4 Carers in Northamptonshire
The population of carers in Northamptonshire is a distinct group of around 70,000 people.
These people provide care for others either formally or informally. The 2011 Census
revealed significant information about the nature of their caring activities and their
demographics.
Key Facts from the 2011 Census97
-
-
-
-
-
-
97
Population
o 10% of the Northamptonshire population are informal carers
Caring Commitment
o 67% care for 1-19 hours per week
o 21% care for 50+ hours per week
o 12% care for between 20 and 49 hours per week
Age
o 72% are 25-64
o 21% are over 65
o 7% are under 25
Ethnicity
o 94% are White
o 3% are Asian/Asian British
o 2% are Black/African/Caribbean/Black British
o 1% are Mixed/Multiple
Gender
o 58% are female
o 42% are male
General Health
o 74% report having good or very good health
o 20% report having fair health
o 6% report having bad or very bad health
Economic Activity
o 58% are in employment
o 38% are economically inactive
o 4% are economically active but unemployed.
http://www.northamptonshireanalysis.co.uk/dataviews/view?viewId=199
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13.5 Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual and Transgender
Data on the location and distribution of Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual and Transgender (LGBT)
groups is generally considered to be unsatisfactory. Whilst analysis has been conducted to
establish a general picture of the quantum of this population this is carried out at a macro
level and has been challenged in terms of sampling and therefore validity. Current
Government estimations place the LGBT population somewhere between 5% and 7%. A
2012 ONS survey suggested a much lower figure of around 1.5%98, which has been
subsequently challenged due to both extent and design. Despite these criticisms, this survey
did suggest that there were significant generational differences in those who were willing to
identify themselves as LGBT; this was much more prominent amongst those aged 16-24
(2.6%) and significantly lower amongst the 65+ (0.4%).
At the regional level significant differences in the LGBT population have been reported. This
is highest in London and lowest in the East of England. The population of the East Midlands
region is estimated at around 1.3%, although how this translates in Northamptonshire is
unknown. Detailed statistics for this demographic are in short supply, and localised
knowledge is limited due to a general lack of specialist provision. Attitudes toward the
community99 may have an impact on some of their key health concerns around sexual and
particularly mental health; in the year 2007/08, 3% of gay men and 5% of bisexual men
attempted to take their own life compared to a figure of 0.4% for the male population in
general. In the same year, 1 in 5 lesbian women deliberately harmed themselves against a
general rate of 0.4%. Additional issues are highly prominent within the LGBT community
around their consumption of various forms of stimulant. Both gay men and lesbian women
show a stronger tendency to have smoked, although for women the quantity of cigarettes
smoked was lower amongst lesbians compared to heterosexuals. They are also more likely
to drink more often, although how this translates to quantity and ‘binge’ drinking is not
clear. Half of gay men had taken illegal drugs during the year 2007/08 in comparison to only
1 in 8 men in general, whilst lesbian and bisexual women were five times more likely to have
taken drugs than heterosexual women.
98
ONS (2012) Integrated Household Survey http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/integrated-householdsurvey/integrated-household-survey/january-to-december-2012/stb-integrated-household-survey-january-todecember-2012.html
99
http://www.stonewall.org.uk/documents/prescription_for_change.pdf
P a g e | 104
In comparison to the general profile, the age structure is heavily
concentrated at the lower age bands, running consistently above
proportional figures for the county until the age of 40, after which
it drops below this significantly (Fig. 103). The population of this
community is heavily concentrated in two specific localities,
Northampton and Kettering, with lower concentrations in
Wellingborough and Daventry. Whilst cultural factors play a
considerable role in their poor health, part of this issue may also be
around engagement with services and the proximity of sites to
healthcare services.
Figure 103: Age profile for Northamptonshire population and
traveller community 2011100
14.0%
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
Age 0 to 4
Age 5 to 7
Age 8 to 9
Age 10 to 14
Age 15
Age 16 to 17
Age 18 to 19
Age 20 to 24
Age 25 to 29
Age 30 to 34
Age 35 to 39
Age 40 to 44
Age 45 to 49
Age 50 to 54
Age 55 to 59
Age 60 to 64
Age 65 to 69
Age 70 to 74
Age 75 to 79
Age 80 to 84
Age 85 and over
13.6 Traveller and Gypsy communities
The gypsy and traveller community both nationally and in
Northamptonshire is a small group. Census data for 2011 suggests
the Traveller community makes up less than 0.1% of the county’s
population – just over 500 residents - although this has been
challenged by the Countywide Travellers Unit in Northamptonshire
County Council who claims this represents only one third of the
true figure. Part of their reasoning is the tendency for men to not
complete Census forms; the male: female ratio on the Census is
however in keeping with the near 50:50 split that would be
expected. Travellers are a group considered to face some of the
highest levels of health deprivation, with significantly lower life
expectancy, higher infant mortality, and higher maternal mortality
alongside mental health issues, substance, misuse and diabetes.
These issues are representative of various lifestyle factors alongside
issues of poor education, lack of integration with mainstream
support services and a lack of trust in such institutions. The age
profile of the community in Northamptonshire illustrates the extent
of the life expectancy issue for travellers.
Northamptonshire
100
Traveller Community
ONS Census 2011 Ethnic Group by Sex by Age
https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/census/2011/dc2101ew
P a g e | 105
13.7 Offenders
Offenders represent a demographic with a concentration of health issues. Poor access to healthcare prior to their sentencing alongside the
impact of social, economic and cultural factors means people serving in prison are likely to have a number of pre-existing health problems101
This can be exacerbated by the prison environment itself, with health issues ranging from long-term medical conditions to mental health
problems, substance misuse and sexual health concerns. These issues may be enduring and require support and treatment after offenders
have been released upon completion of sentence or on probation. At all stages of this process, whilst support may be forthcoming through the
prison service and the individual prisons, responsibility for the commissioning of all health services sits with NHS England. This has direct
implications for the health support infrastructure in Northamptonshire.
The population of those designated offenders covers two specific groups. The first is the prison population of Northamptonshire. As things
stand, the county has two Category 3 prisons – Onley and Rye Hill - housing a number of what is considered lower risk offenders. This however
will change as one of these is set to become a specialist institution specifically housing sex offenders. Whilst the number of prisoners within
the county is not likely to significantly change, this will have some implications on the profile and needs of this group. The current population
of incarcerated offenders in Northamptonshire stands at 1,303, with the potential operational capacity of 1312102 so any increase in actual
numbers using the current facilities is minimal.
101
Mathis & Schonely (2008) Healthcare behind bars: what you need to know, Nurse Practitioner 33:5, pp.34-41 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18578090
102
Ministry of Justice (2014) Population Bulleting (monthly) July https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/prison-population-figures-2014
P a g e | 106
Offenders represent a distinct population with high mental and drug related issues:

More than 70% of the prison population have two or more mental disorders.103

Male prisoners are 14 times more likely to have two or more disorders than men in general, female prisoners are 35 times more
likely104.

Mental disorders are significantly over-represented in the prison population. As many as 15% of all prisoners have concurrent mental
health disorders. 30% of prisoners have a history of self harm and the instances are higher in women and ethnic minority groups.105

Up to 90% of prisoners have a diagnosable mental illness or substance abuse problem. Frequently they have both106.

5.2% of prisoners in England and Wales have displayed symptoms of psychosis compared to 0.45% of the general population. 25% of
these can be attributed to drugs and/or alcohol or withdrawal.

The suicide rate in prisons is almost 15 times higher than in the general population. In 2002 the rate was 143 per 100,000 population
compared to one of 9 in 100,000 in the general population. Boys aged 15 to 17 are 18 times more likely to commit suicide in prison/
custody107.

72% of prisoners committing suicide had a history of mental illness. 57% had symptoms present at the time they entered prison108.
103
http://www.mentalhealth.org.uk/help-information/mental-health-statistics/prisons/
104
http://www.mentalhealth.org.uk/help-information/mental-health-statistics/prisons/
105
http://www.mentalhealth.org.uk/content/assets/PDF/publications/fundamental_facts_2007.pdf?view=Standard
106
http://ajp.psychiatryonline.org/article.aspx?articleid=177466
107
http://www.mentalhealth.org.uk/help-information/mental-health-statistics/prisons/
P a g e | 107
The prison population have a distinct set of health needs and are expected to need more intensive support from the health service and
support infrastructure. Their needs can be placed into three broad categories of physical health needs, mental health needs, and substance
misuse. The prison population in Northamptonshire should be considered separately from the general population rather than as part of a
comparative exercise, partly due to its transient nature and secondly due to the specific needs. This will include issues arising from institutional
high-risk behaviour including unprotected sex with multiple partners and use of hard drugs. Almost two-thirds have an alcohol problem on
entering prison. Co-morbidity – the occurrence of multiple serious or significant health issues – is a common problem within this demographic.
Their incarceration offers a significant opportunity to address such issues with a demographic who traditionally will have had little formal
contact with the NHS. There is however a potential implication over the consistency and continuity of treatment amongst those with
diagnosed issues, particularly given the transient nature of this population and what can be a seemingly fragmented support network as they
move between prisons and between stages of rehabilitation.
Age and ethnic profile in the prisons is significantly different from the county population. Both institutions are male prisons, making a clear
gender distinction, but in terms of age in HMP Onley those over 40 years represent less than 20% of the population, whilst White British
account for less than 50%; HMP Rye Hill would be anticipated to have a similar profile. The transition of Rye Hill from a Category 3 prison to a
specialist sex offenders unit is expected to change this profile significantly, specifically toward an older population.
The second group of offenders are those no longer serving prison terms; this may include those serving suspended sentences, those on
probation, and those living in secure accommodation. The current caseload for the Northamptonshire Probation Services (PBS) stands at
2,624. Almost 40% of this client group are resident in Northampton, with 184 recorded as having No Fixed Abode and 242 living at either an
unknown address or one outside of the county (Fig. 104). Of this group, around 69% are White British, with the second highest group White
Other (circa 7.5%). Of this group, 90% are male.
108
http://www.prisonreformtrust.org.uk/Portals/0/Documents/Prisonthefacts.pdf
P a g e | 108
Figure 104: Northamptonshire Probation Service caseload109
Locality
Corby
Daventry
East Northamptonshire
Kettering
Northampton
South Northamptonshire
Wellingborough
No Fixed Abode
Unknown / outside Northamptonshire
Frequency
190
135
311
236
1039
80
207
184
242
% of total
07.24
05.14
11.85
08.99
39.6
03.05
07.89
07.01
09.22
13.8 Asylum Seekers and Refugees
Asylum seekers and refugees make up a relatively small proportion of the inward migration experienced by both the UK and
Northamptonshire each year. Health issues are common in asylum seekers. Whilst a number may arrive in good health, this can rapidly change
as a result of difficulty accessing services and navigating a language barrier. A number however, especially those seeking political asylum, will
have physical and possibly psychological issues developed prior to or during their movement from their home nation to the UK. This can vary
from the impact of poor healthcare systems in their home nation, to the effects of malnutrition, to the scars of imprisonment and torture110.
People seeking asylum may be offered this on political grounds but can also be successful in an application on a temporary basis for health
reasons, such as if they have illness or are in the late stages of pregnancy.
109
Northamptonshire Probation Service
110
Faculty of Public Health (2008) The health needs of asylum seekers: briefing statement http://www.fph.org.uk/uploads/bs_aslym_seeker_health.pdf
P a g e | 109
Nationally the UK has 149,799 refugees, and 19,602 asylum seekers as of the most recent estimates by the UN Refugee Agency111. There is
very little research evidence about Northamptonshire’s total asylum seeker and refugee population, but estimates using these prevalence
rates result in Northamptonshire containing 1,664 refugees and 218 asylum seekers.
The demographic of people seeking asylum in the UK is evolving, although can be reduced to a smaller number of less politically stable regions,
including the Middle East and Africa. The number of asylum applications and inflow has dropped quite dramatically since a significant period of
growth between 1999 and 2003.
Included in the asylum seekers population are a number of minors who have entered the country unaccompanied. These represent a service
implication with the need to provide care and accommodation for these children. Whilst the trend over the period 2009-14 has seen a
reduction in these cases at the national level, and this has been replicated at locally, the number has also remained relatively consistent (Fig.
105).
Figure 105: Unaccompanied asylum seeking children looked after by Local Authorities112
England
East Midlands
Northamptonshire
2009
3890
250
110
2010
3480
260
120
2011
2730
200
110
2012
2200
160
85
2013
1860
120
70
2014
85
111
http://www.unhcr.org/52af08d26.html
112
Dept. for Education (2014) SSDA903 https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/children-looked-after-return-2014-to-2015-guide
P a g e | 110
14. Conclusions
Northamptonshire is not a homogenous place. Whilst the concentration of diversity may not be as significant as other parts of the UK, the
breadth of this is notable. The demographic profile of the county shows that whilst variations against the national profile are not particularly
great, they are significant enough to suggest the incorporation of local context into the development of health interventions is important.
This chapter has outlined a number of critical groups considered to be in need of intervention based around policy priorities found at both
national and local level. Whilst these have been divided into a number of sub-sections, neither the groups nor the health issues they face sit in
isolation. The continued growth of the population and increasing concentration of more heterogeneous groups and their needs ensures that
the county’s demographic will continue to evolve.
A number of the groups of concern and the recurrence of their embedded issues show a strong correlation with and concentration in urban
areas, particularly the parts registering lower levels of socio-economic deprivation. This concentration should not be taken as a sole statement
of the greatest need. Concentration of deprivation and individual extent and marginalisation are two separate things. Whilst the data used in
this chapter provides a relatively robust evidence base to guide thinking about public health, it should not be considered in isolation and we
should look to enhance this with additional service-based and locally-sourced intelligence.
Understanding the demography of a place is fundamental to building an understanding of not only the general and critical needs of the
resident population but also the modes and practices of intervention and health management. The transformation of public health to more of
an integrated discipline is highly dependent on an in depth knowledge of local demography for the effective design of intervention. It is
similarly integral to the extension of public health interests into a broader set of state and quasi-state agencies and their remit which play a
significant role in managing institutional health issues occurring at both broad and local scales.
P a g e | 111
The population of Northamptonshire can neither be considered singular nor static. The county has grown in resident numbers and this trend is
anticipated to continue. This rate reflects differently across different groups, for example the 65+ population and the BME community have
seen a significant increase whilst 18-30 year olds have proportionally declined. The transformation of population structure occurs as both a
cyclical and a linear phenomenon, the rise and fall of natural change through birth and death rates supplemented by migration tendencies and
increased life expectancy. As a result of this structural transformation the issue of diversity around service design and provision has and will
become more significant. Northamptonshire is not necessarily recognised as the most diverse part of the UK, but change in county population
has been significant and this diversity has emerged both in line with national trends and in more locally distinctive ways.
Alongside diversity in population, identified through standard classifications such as age, gender, ethnicity and sexuality, a more sophisticated
understanding of health and health issues has emerged. This has increased the need for support services in terms of volume and in type of
intervention. Issues such as binge drinking, obesity and mental health which have risen to prominence over the past decade, partly through
changes in societal and cultural behaviour and partly through more sophisticated understandings of health needs, have required general
service transformation alongside more focused engagement with specific demographics. As a result understanding who and where these
groups are, how they are affected, and the factors which contribute toward the predominance of specific issues, has become fundamental.
Using current policy frameworks at the national and local level as a guide alongside the critical issues arising from condition-specific JSNA
reports published locally in 2013, five specific communities have been discussed within this chapter; communities of deprivation, older people,
children, young adults, and minority groups, which itself encompasses a diversity of forms and interests. These groups vary significantly in their
location and distribution within the county. Part of this is explained through socio-cultural and socio-economic conditions, specific groups
converging in certain locations in line with anticipated tendencies. The urban-rural split within the county is notable with the concentration of
Young Adults, BME groups and Children occurring in the more urbanised areas – Northampton, Corby, Kettering and Wellingborough - and the
population of Older People tending to emerge in more rural parts of the county. Whilst this distinction is often interpreted on the basis of a
P a g e | 112
division between specific lower tier local authority areas, these concentrations can be more highly localised. To this extent certain
relationships between health issues, demographic group and environment can be established. This spatial phenomenon does not occur
uniformly across all groups however and for certain demographics locational factors may be less significant than others.
Within each of these groups there are signs of additional concentrations of sub-groups or sub-communities with more intensive support or
intervention needs. The growth of the 65+ community has also seen a significant rise in those aged 85 years and over. Whilst this sub-group
only accounts for around 14% of the population of older people, it also represents the group for which high-level intervention is in highest
demand. Behavioural tendencies toward drinking and drug taking within both the Young Adult group and certain minority groups, such as
Offenders and LGBT, manifest in differing volumes and to differing extremities; a certain number may be designated high risk but this is
unlikely to be uniformly applied. There is a necessity here to gain a stronger understanding of what may be designated at-risk groups and the
high risk sub-groups within these.
The demographic profile also elaborates the need to both understand and anticipate projected structural changes within Northamptonshire,
and how these are likely to manifest in line with national changes or are divergent from these. The population growth of the county, which has
run at a significantly faster rate than that of England and the East Midlands, illustrates the issue of increasing general demand, whilst
projections of continuing proportional growth amongst communities such as older people or BME groups indicate more distinct needs. Some
of these may be difficult to predict; whilst both BME and migrant communities are expected to grow the categorising of these is less easy to
anticipate. This form of ‘known unknown’ in the structural transformation of Northamptonshire’s demographic requires the integration of
service demand analysis and the monitoring of localised and national trends as a core part of the management of public health services.
There is also a need to extend the understanding gained through information conveyed in this chapter. This includes more detailed spatial
analysis to further understand the location, distribution, and extent of issues identified through the application of centrally produced data
sources. The demographic may be further segmented considering the different groups in need of support. A stronger body of information is
required for certain groups identified in the Minority Groups section – specifically the LGBT and the Asylum Seekers communities – alongside
P a g e | 113
an understanding of the profile of these different groups and how this is restructuring over time due to natural and migratory change.
Additional focus could also be paid to groups either marginally acknowledge or omitted from this report. This could include children with
disabilities, the segmentation of occupational grades, a more detailed study of migrants (first generation) and the construction of their
community, people in permanent residential care, homeless or transient people, and those exiting the care system particularly around the
transition from designated child to adult status.
P a g e | 114
Appendices
Appendix 1: Population structure: County, Districts and Boroughs
Figure 106: Northamptonshire 2012 ONS estimate
It is clear from the population pyramid that the 2012 population exhibits similar
trends to what is prevailing elsewhere in the UK: an ageing population which has a
slightly higher percentage of females than males.
The number of people aged over 90 is high, and the number of females aged over
90 is significantly higher than the number of males.
What is also noticeable about the Northamptonshire population pyramid is the
significantly lower numbers of people aged between around 18-25. Why exactly
this is the case can only be speculated, but it may be because of young people
leaving the county to go to university elsewhere.
P a g e | 115
Figure 107: Corby 2014 ONS estimate
Figure 108: Daventry 2014 ONS estimate
Corby has a
young population
compared to other
areas in Northants
Daventry has many
45-70 year olds
There is a high
proportion of 22-55
year olds
There are very few
18-22 year olds
Much higher percent
of under 10’s
P a g e | 116
Figure 109: East Northamptonshire 2014 ONS estimate
Figure 110: Kettering 2014 ONS estimate
The populations of East Northamptonshire and Kettering are broadly similar to that of Northamptonshire. There is a noticeable dip in 1822year olds, and a high proportion of over 90’s reflecting the ageing population.
P a g e | 117
Figure 111: Northampton 2014 ONS estimate
Figure 112: South Northamptonshire 2014 ONS estimate
S. Northants
has many over
90’s
There are also
many people
aged 60-70
Northampton
has the highest
proportion of
18-30 year olds
very low
numbers of
18-22 year
olds
P a g e | 118
Figure 113: Wellingborough 2014 ONS estimate
P a g e | 119
Appendix 2: Clinical Commissioning Group registered populations113
Intro: ONS 2011 census based CCG level populations (mid 2011). There are two CCGs who commission health care on behalf of the
Northamptonshire population, Nene CCG and the smaller Corby CCG. The population’s size and age distributions are illustrated in figures 114
and 115 beneath.
Figure 114: Nene CCG mid 2011 population
12,000
10,000
Population
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
1
5
9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89
Age
113
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/sape/clinical-commissioning-group-population-estimates/mid-2011--census-based-/stb---clinical-commissioning-groups---mid2011.html
P a g e | 120
Figure 115: Corby CCG mid 2011 population
1,200
1,000
600
400
200
0
1
4
7
10
13
16
19
22
25
28
31
34
37
40
43
46
49
52
55
58
61
64
67
70
73
76
79
82
85
88
90+
Population
800
Age
P a g e | 121
Figure 116: Nene and Corby CCG populations – age distribution in percentage terms
P a g e | 122
Populations of each GP practice by age group and gender, and trends114
There are 49 GP practices in Northamptonshire, each with varying quantities and types of population. Because there are so many, each will not
be discussed in turn, but there is a hyperlink in the reference if they need to be viewed.
Estimated unregistered population within the local authority
Based on the size of the ONS mid year population estimates for Nene and Corby CCGs compared to the ONS estimate for the same year115 in
the whole of Northamptonshire there exists a significant population who are not registered with the NHS.
As of 2011, Nene CCG has a registered population of 616,744, Corby CCG has 61,608. Collectively this adds up to 678,351 registered
population. The ONS estimate for Northamptonshire in 2011 is 691,952, leaving an unregistered population of 13,601. The Nuffield Trust point
to the health needs of unregistered populations being “significant” and claim that unregistered populations account for nearly 100,000 patient
episodes in one year nationally116.
114
http://fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/general-practice/data
115
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/interactive/vp2-2011-census-comparator/index.html
116
http://www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk/sites/files/nuffield/publication/130425_reclaiming-a-population-health-perspective.pdf
P a g e | 123
Appendix 3: Job seekers allowance: Claimants by age groups under 35 and under 25
Figure 117: Claimants under 35
Northamptonshire
Corby
Daventry
East Northamptonshire
Kettering
Northampton
South
Northamptonshire
Wellingborough
England
JSA
Total
11,490
1,460
840
1,010
1,630
4,500
JSA
Total
under
35
5,710
840
400
490
790
2,200
JSA
Claimants
<35
49.7%
57.5%
47.6%
48.5%
48.5%
48.9%
JSA 6
Months
7,000
1,030
600
610
970
2,620
JSA 6
Months
under
35
3,890
630
320
330
540
1,460
490
220
44.9%
320
1,560
968,850
770
495,290
49.4%
51.1%
840
536,120
JSA 6
Months
<35
Claimants
6 mths +
55.6%
61.2%
53.3%
54.1%
55.7%
55.7%
4,490
430
240
400
660
1,880
150
46.9%
170
460
309,990
54.8%
57.8%
720
432,730
<35
Claimants
6mths+
1,820
210
80
160
250
740
%
Claimants
6mths+
<35
40.5%
48.8%
33.3%
40.0%
37.9%
39.4%
% <35
claimants
6mths+
31.9%
25.0%
20.0%
32.7%
31.6%
33.6%
70
310
185,300
41.2%
43.1%
42.8%
31.8%
40.3%
37.4%
P a g e | 124
Figure 118: Claimants under 25
Northamptonshire
Corby
Daventry
East Northamptonshire
Kettering
Northampton
South
Northamptonshire
Wellingborough
England
JSA
Total
11,490
1,460
840
1,010
1,630
4,500
490
1,560
968,850
JSA
Total
under
25
2,840
450
230
260
410
1,030
110
350
241,940
JSA
Claimants
<25
24.7%
30.8%
27.4%
25.7%
25.2%
22.9%
JSA 6
Months
7,000
1,030
600
610
970
2,620
22.4%
320
22.4%
25.0%
840
536,120
JSA 6
Months
under
25
2,060
350
190
190
300
730
80
230
164,290
JSA 6
Months
<25
Claimants
6 mths +
29.4%
34.0%
31.7%
31.1%
30.9%
27.9%
4,490
430
240
400
660
1,880
25.0%
170
27.4%
30.6%
720
432,730
<25
Claimants
6mths+
780
100
40
70
110
300
%
Claimants
6mths+
<25
17.4%
23.3%
16.7%
17.5%
16.7%
16.0%
% <25
claimants
6mths+
27.5%
22.2%
17.4%
26.9%
26.8%
29.1%
30
120
77,650
17.6%
16.7%
17.9%
27.3%
34.3%
32.1%
P a g e | 125
Appendix 4: Mid 2013 Population estimates for Northamptonshire and Districts in five year age bands
Figure 119
Northamptonshrie population by five year age groups: ONS 2013 mid year estimates
Northamptonshire
Corby
Daventry
East Northants
Kettering
Northampton
South Northamptonshire
Wellingborough
Total
Total
Total
Total Total
Total
Total
Total
Total
Total Total
Total Total Total Total
Total
Total aged Total aged aged
aged
aged aged 26- aged
aged
aged
aged
aged
aged aged
aged aged aged aged aged 86
All Ages
0-5
6-10 11-15 16-20 21-25
30 31-35 36-40 41-45 46-50 51-55 56-60 61-65 66-70 71-75 76-80 81-85 and over
706,647
56,681
43,326 41,762 40,951 40,735 43,708 45,672 46,703 53,492 54,582 47,516 41,115 42,048 37,510 24,957 19,274 13,930 12,685
64,212
5,857
4,030 3,751 3,713 4,048
4,940 4,702 4,096 4,618 4,934 4,403 3,663 3,128 2,781 2,078 1,624 1,051
795
78,556
5,232
4,686 4,788 4,294 4,051
3,620 3,936 4,777 6,203 6,726 6,072 5,185 5,463 4,873 3,183 2,430 1,623
1414
87,969
6,151
5,339 5,601 5,161 4,293
4,215 4,831 5,561 6,959 7,045 6,231 5,376 6,019 5,304 3,492 2,658 1,903
1830
95,748
7,718
5,964 5,574 5,262 5,337
5,780 6,202 6,475 7,503 7,324 6,100 5,436 5,833 5,275 3,441 2,631 1,933
1960
216,739
19,401
13,380 12,014 13,737 14,997 16,915 16,859 15,195 15,221 15,322 13,118 11,152 11,101 9,370 6,431 5,123 3,848
3555
87,465
6,033
5,257 5,534 4,612 4,047
3,763 4,499 5,701 7,255 7,494 6,653 5,695 5,778 5,457 3,439 2,601 1,954
1693
75,958
6,289
4,670 4,500 4,172 3,962
4,475 4,643 4,898 5,733 5,737 4,939 4,608 4,726 4,450 2,893 2,207 1,618
1438
P a g e | 126
Figure 120: 2012-based sub national population projections Figures are in thousands (to one decimal place)
Northamptonshire - males
CODE
E10000021
E10000021
E10000021
E10000021
E10000021
E10000021
E10000021
E10000021
E10000021
E10000021
E10000021
E10000021
E10000021
E10000021
E10000021
E10000021
E10000021
E10000021
E10000021
E10000021
AREA
Northamptonshire
Northamptonshire
Northamptonshire
Northamptonshire
Northamptonshire
Northamptonshire
Northamptonshire
Northamptonshire
Northamptonshire
Northamptonshire
Northamptonshire
Northamptonshire
Northamptonshire
Northamptonshire
Northamptonshire
Northamptonshire
Northamptonshire
Northamptonshire
Northamptonshire
Northamptonshire
AGE GROUP 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037
0-4
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
23
23
23
23
23
23
23
23
24
24
24
24
5-9
22
23
23
24
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
10-14
21
21
21
21
22
22
23
24
25
25
26
26
26
26
26
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
15-19
22
22
21
21
21
21
21
21
21
21
22
23
23
24
24
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
20-24
20
20
20
20
20
19
19
19
19
19
18
18
18
18
19
19
20
20
21
21
22
22
22
22
22
22
25-29
21
21
22
22
22
23
23
23
23
22
22
22
22
22
21
21
21
21
21
21
22
22
23
24
24
24
30-34
22
23
23
23
23
22
23
23
23
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
23
23
23
23
22
22
22
22
23
23
35-39
23
22
22
23
23
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
24
24
24
23
40-44
26
26
26
25
24
23
23
23
23
24
24
25
24
24
24
24
25
25
25
26
26
26
26
26
26
26
45-49
27
27
27
27
27
26
26
26
25
24
24
23
23
23
24
24
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
26
26
26
50-54
24
24
25
26
27
27
27
27
27
27
26
26
26
25
24
24
23
23
24
24
24
25
25
25
25
25
55-59
21
21
21
22
23
23
24
25
26
26
27
27
27
26
26
26
26
25
25
24
23
23
23
23
24
24
60-64
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
21
21
22
23
23
24
25
26
26
26
26
26
26
25
25
25
24
24
23
65-69
19
20
20
20
20
20
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
21
21
22
23
23
24
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
70-74
13
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
19
19
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
19
19
20
21
21
22
23
23
24
75-79
9
10
10
10
10
11
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
17
17
16
16
16
16
16
16
17
17
17
18
19
80-84
6
7
7
7
7
8
8
8
8
9
9
9
10
11
11
13
14
14
14
14
14
13
13
13
14
14
85-89
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
5
5
5
5
6
6
6
6
7
7
7
8
9
10
10
11
11
11
10
90+
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
5
5
5
6
6
6
7
8
All ages
346 349 352 355 358 361 364 367 370 373 376 379 382 385 388 390 393 395 398 400 402 404 407 409 411 413
P a g e | 127
Northamptonshire – females
CODE
E10000021
E10000021
E10000021
E10000021
E10000021
E10000021
E10000021
E10000021
E10000021
E10000021
E10000021
E10000021
E10000021
E10000021
E10000021
E10000021
E10000021
E10000021
E10000021
E10000021
AREA
Northamptonshire
Northamptonshire
Northamptonshire
Northamptonshire
Northamptonshire
Northamptonshire
Northamptonshire
Northamptonshire
Northamptonshire
Northamptonshire
Northamptonshire
Northamptonshire
Northamptonshire
Northamptonshire
Northamptonshire
Northamptonshire
Northamptonshire
Northamptonshire
Northamptonshire
Northamptonshire
AGE
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85-89
90+
All ages
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037
23
23
23
23
23
23
23
23
23
23
23
23
22
22
22
22
22
22
22
22
22
22
22
23
23
23
21
22
23
23
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
23
23
23
23
23
23
23
23
23
20
20
20
21
21
22
23
23
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
20
20
20
20
20
20
19
20
20
20
21
22
23
23
23
23
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
23
23
20
20
19
19
19
19
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
19
19
20
20
21
21
21
21
21
21
21
22
22
22
22
22
22
22
22
22
21
21
21
21
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
21
22
22
22
23
23
23
23
24
24
24
23
23
23
23
23
24
23
23
23
23
22
22
22
22
22
21
21
21
21
22
22
23
23
23
23
23
24
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
24
24
24
24
23
23
23
23
27
27
26
26
25
24
23
23
24
24
25
25
26
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
26
25
25
25
25
25
27
28
28
27
27
27
27
26
26
25
24
24
23
24
24
25
26
26
26
26
26
26
26
26
26
26
24
25
26
26
27
27
28
28
27
27
27
27
26
26
25
24
24
23
24
24
25
26
26
26
26
26
21
21
22
22
23
24
25
25
26
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
26
26
25
24
23
23
24
24
25
22
21
21
20
20
21
21
21
22
23
24
24
25
26
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
26
26
26
25
24
19
21
21
22
22
21
21
20
20
20
20
20
21
22
22
23
24
25
26
26
26
27
27
26
26
26
13
14
14
15
16
18
19
20
21
21
20
20
19
19
19
19
20
20
21
21
22
23
24
24
25
25
11
11
11
12
12
12
12
13
14
15
17
18
19
19
19
19
18
18
18
18
18
18
19
19
20
21
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
10
10
10
10
11
12
12
13
15
16
16
17
17
16
16
16
16
16
16
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
7
7
7
7
7
8
8
8
8
9
9
10
11
12
13
13
14
14
14
4
4
4
4
4
5
5
5
5
5
5
6
6
6
6
7
7
7
8
8
8
9
10
10
11
12
355 358 361 364 367 370 373 376 379 382 385 387 390 393 395 398 400 403 405 407 410 412 414 416 418 420
P a g e | 128
Corby - males
CODE
E07000150
E07000150
E07000150
E07000150
E07000150
E07000150
E07000150
E07000150
E07000150
E07000150
E07000150
E07000150
E07000150
E07000150
E07000150
E07000150
E07000150
E07000150
E07000150
E07000150
AREA
Corby
Corby
Corby
Corby
Corby
Corby
Corby
Corby
Corby
Corby
Corby
Corby
Corby
Corby
Corby
Corby
Corby
Corby
Corby
Corby
AGE GROUP 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037
0-4
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
5-9
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
10-14
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
15-19
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
20-24
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
25-29
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
30-34
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
35-39
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
40-44
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
45-49
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
50-54
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
55-59
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
60-64
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
65-69
1
1
1
1
2
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
70-74
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
75-79
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
80-84
1
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
85-89
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
90+
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
All ages
31
31
32
32
33
33
34
34
35
35
36
36
37
37
37
38
38
39
39
39
40
40
40
41
41
41
P a g e | 129
Corby – females
CODE
E07000150
E07000150
E07000150
E07000150
E07000150
E07000150
E07000150
E07000150
E07000150
E07000150
E07000150
E07000150
E07000150
E07000150
E07000150
E07000150
E07000150
E07000150
E07000150
E07000150
AREA
Corby
Corby
Corby
Corby
Corby
Corby
Corby
Corby
Corby
Corby
Corby
Corby
Corby
Corby
Corby
Corby
Corby
Corby
Corby
Corby
AGE
GROUP
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85-89
90+
All ages
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
32
33
33
34
34
35
35
36
36
37
37
38
38
38
39
39
40
40
40
41
41
41
42
42
42
43
P a g e | 130
Daventry - males
CODE
E07000151
E07000151
E07000151
E07000151
E07000151
E07000151
E07000151
E07000151
E07000151
E07000151
E07000151
E07000151
E07000151
E07000151
E07000151
E07000151
E07000151
E07000151
E07000151
E07000151
AREA
Daventry
Daventry
Daventry
Daventry
Daventry
Daventry
Daventry
Daventry
Daventry
Daventry
Daventry
Daventry
Daventry
Daventry
Daventry
Daventry
Daventry
Daventry
Daventry
Daventry
AGE GROUP 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037
0-4
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
5-9
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
10-14
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
15-19
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
20-24
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
25-29
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
30-34
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
35-39
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
40-44
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
45-49
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
50-54
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
55-59
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
60-64
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
65-69
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
70-74
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
75-79
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
80-84
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
85-89
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
1
90+
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
All ages
39
39
40
40
40
40
40
41
1
41
41
42
42
42
42
43
43
43
43
43
44
44
44
44
44
44
P a g e | 131
Daventry – females
CODE
E07000151
E07000151
E07000151
E07000151
E07000151
E07000151
E07000151
E07000151
E07000151
E07000151
E07000151
E07000151
E07000151
E07000151
E07000151
E07000151
E07000151
E07000151
E07000151
E07000151
AREA
Daventry
Daventry
Daventry
Daventry
Daventry
Daventry
Daventry
Daventry
Daventry
Daventry
Daventry
Daventry
Daventry
Daventry
Daventry
Daventry
Daventry
Daventry
Daventry
Daventry
AGE
GROUP
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85-89
90+
All ages
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
39
39
40
40
40
40
40
41
41
41
41
42
42
42
42
42
43
43
43
43
43
44
44
44
44
44
P a g e | 132
East Northamptonshire - males
CODE
E07000152
E07000152
E07000152
E07000152
E07000152
E07000152
E07000152
E07000152
E07000152
E07000152
E07000152
E07000152
E07000152
E07000152
E07000152
E07000152
E07000152
E07000152
E07000152
E07000152
AREA
East Northamptonshire
East Northamptonshire
East Northamptonshire
East Northamptonshire
East Northamptonshire
East Northamptonshire
East Northamptonshire
East Northamptonshire
East Northamptonshire
East Northamptonshire
East Northamptonshire
East Northamptonshire
East Northamptonshire
East Northamptonshire
East Northamptonshire
East Northamptonshire
East Northamptonshire
East Northamptonshire
East Northamptonshire
East Northamptonshire
AGE GROUP 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037
0-4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
5-9
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
10-14
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
15-19
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
20-24
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
25-29
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
30-34
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
35-39
3
3
2
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
40-44
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
45-49
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
50-54
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
55-59
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
60-64
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
65-69
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
3
70-74
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
75-79
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
80-84
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
85-89
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
90+
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
All ages
43
43
44
44
44
44
45
45
45
45
46
46
46
46
47
47
47
47
47
48
48
48
48
48
49
49
P a g e | 133
East Northamptonshire – females
CODE
E07000152
E07000152
E07000152
E07000152
E07000152
E07000152
E07000152
E07000152
E07000152
E07000152
E07000152
E07000152
E07000152
E07000152
E07000152
E07000152
E07000152
E07000152
E07000152
E07000152
AREA
East Northamptonshire
East Northamptonshire
East Northamptonshire
East Northamptonshire
East Northamptonshire
East Northamptonshire
East Northamptonshire
East Northamptonshire
East Northamptonshire
East Northamptonshire
East Northamptonshire
East Northamptonshire
East Northamptonshire
East Northamptonshire
East Northamptonshire
East Northamptonshire
East Northamptonshire
East Northamptonshire
East Northamptonshire
East Northamptonshire
AGE
GROUP
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85-89
90+
All ages
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
44
44
45
45
45
45
46
46
46
46
47
47
47
48
48
48
48
48
49
49
49
49
50
50
50
50
P a g e | 134
Kettering - males
CODE
E07000153
E07000153
E07000153
E07000153
E07000153
E07000153
E07000153
E07000153
E07000153
E07000153
E07000153
E07000153
E07000153
E07000153
E07000153
E07000153
E07000153
E07000153
E07000153
E07000153
AREA
Kettering
Kettering
Kettering
Kettering
Kettering
Kettering
Kettering
Kettering
Kettering
Kettering
Kettering
Kettering
Kettering
Kettering
Kettering
Kettering
Kettering
Kettering
Kettering
Kettering
AGE GROUP 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037
0-4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
5-9
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
10-14
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
15-19
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
20-24
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
25-29
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
30-34
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
35-39
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
40-44
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
45-49
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
50-54
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
55-59
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
60-64
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
65-69
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
3
70-74
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
75-79
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
80-84
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
85-89
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
90+
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
All ages
47
47
48
48
48
49
49
50
50
51
51
52
52
52
53
53
53
54
54
54
55
55
55
56
56
56
P a g e | 135
Kettering – females
CODE
E07000153
E07000153
E07000153
E07000153
E07000153
E07000153
E07000153
E07000153
E07000153
E07000153
E07000153
E07000153
E07000153
E07000153
E07000153
E07000153
E07000153
E07000153
E07000153
E07000153
AREA
Kettering
Kettering
Kettering
Kettering
Kettering
Kettering
Kettering
Kettering
Kettering
Kettering
Kettering
Kettering
Kettering
Kettering
Kettering
Kettering
Kettering
Kettering
Kettering
Kettering
AGE
GROUP
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85-89
90+
All ages
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
48
49
49
50
50
51
51
51
52
52
53
53
54
54
54
55
55
55
56
56
56
57
57
57
58
58
P a g e | 136
Northampton - males
CODE
E07000154
E07000154
E07000154
E07000154
E07000154
E07000154
E07000154
E07000154
E07000154
E07000154
E07000154
E07000154
E07000154
E07000154
E07000154
E07000154
E07000154
E07000154
E07000154
E07000154
AREA
Northampton
Northampton
Northampton
Northampton
Northampton
Northampton
Northampton
Northampton
Northampton
Northampton
Northampton
Northampton
Northampton
Northampton
Northampton
Northampton
Northampton
Northampton
Northampton
Northampton
AGE GROUP 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037
0-4
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
9
5-9
7
7
7
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
10-14
6
6
6
6
6
6
7
7
7
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
15-19
7
7
7
7
7
6
6
6
6
7
7
7
7
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
20-24
7
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
7
7
7
7
8
8
8
8
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
25-29
8
8
8
8
8
8
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
9
9
9
9
9
10
30-34
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
8
9
9
9
35-39
8
8
8
8
8
8
9
9
8
8
8
8
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
8
40-44
8
8
8
8
8
8
7
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
9
9
9
9
9
9
45-49
8
8
8
7
7
8
8
8
8
7
7
7
7
7
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
50-54
7
7
7
7
8
8
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
8
8
8
8
8
8
55-59
6
6
6
6
6
6
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
60-64
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
6
6
6
6
6
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
65-69
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
6
6
6
6
6
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
70-74
3
3
3
4
4
4
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
5
5
5
5
5
5
6
6
6
6
6
75-79
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
5
5
80-84
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
85-89
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
90+
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
All ages
106 107 108 110 111 112 113 114 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 123 124 125 126 126 127 128 129 130 131 131
P a g e | 137
Northampton – females
CODE
E07000154
E07000154
E07000154
E07000154
E07000154
E07000154
E07000154
E07000154
E07000154
E07000154
E07000154
E07000154
E07000154
E07000154
E07000154
E07000154
E07000154
E07000154
E07000154
E07000154
AREA
Northampton
Northampton
Northampton
Northampton
Northampton
Northampton
Northampton
Northampton
Northampton
Northampton
Northampton
Northampton
Northampton
Northampton
Northampton
Northampton
Northampton
Northampton
Northampton
Northampton
AGE
GROUP
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85-89
90+
All ages
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
7
7
7
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
6
6
6
6
6
7
7
7
7
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
7
7
7
7
7
6
6
6
7
7
7
7
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
9
9
9
9
8
9
9
9
9
9
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
7
7
7
8
8
8
9
9
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
7
7
7
7
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
7
7
7
7
8
8
8
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
8
8
8
8
8
8
6
6
6
6
6
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
5
5
5
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
6
6
6
6
6
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
3
4
4
4
4
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
6
6
6
6
6
6
7
7
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
3
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
109 110 111 112 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 122 123 124 125 126 127 128 128 129 130 131 131 132
P a g e | 138
South Northamptonshire – males
CODE
E07000155
E07000155
E07000155
E07000155
E07000155
E07000155
E07000155
E07000155
E07000155
E07000155
E07000155
E07000155
E07000155
E07000155
E07000155
E07000155
E07000155
E07000155
E07000155
E07000155
AREA
South Northamptonshire
South Northamptonshire
South Northamptonshire
South Northamptonshire
South Northamptonshire
South Northamptonshire
South Northamptonshire
South Northamptonshire
South Northamptonshire
South Northamptonshire
South Northamptonshire
South Northamptonshire
South Northamptonshire
South Northamptonshire
South Northamptonshire
South Northamptonshire
South Northamptonshire
South Northamptonshire
South Northamptonshire
South Northamptonshire
AGE GROUP 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037
0-4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
5-9
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
10-14
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
15-19
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
20-24
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
25-29
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
30-34
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
35-39
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
40-44
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
45-49
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
50-54
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
55-59
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
60-64
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
65-69
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
70-74
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
75-79
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
80-84
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
85-89
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
90+
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
All ages
43
43
43
43
44
44
44
44
45
45
45
45
46
46
46
46
47
47
47
47
48
48
48
48
48
48
P a g e | 139
South Northamptonshire – females
CODE
E07000155
E07000155
E07000155
E07000155
E07000155
E07000155
E07000155
E07000155
E07000155
E07000155
E07000155
E07000155
E07000155
E07000155
E07000155
E07000155
E07000155
E07000155
E07000155
E07000155
AREA
South Northamptonshire
South Northamptonshire
South Northamptonshire
South Northamptonshire
South Northamptonshire
South Northamptonshire
South Northamptonshire
South Northamptonshire
South Northamptonshire
South Northamptonshire
South Northamptonshire
South Northamptonshire
South Northamptonshire
South Northamptonshire
South Northamptonshire
South Northamptonshire
South Northamptonshire
South Northamptonshire
South Northamptonshire
South Northamptonshire
AGE
GROUP
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85-89
90+
All ages
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
44
44
44
44
45
45
45
46
46
46
46
47
47
47
48
48
48
48
49
49
49
49
49
50
50
50
P a g e | 140
Wellingborough - males
CODE
E07000156
E07000156
E07000156
E07000156
E07000156
E07000156
E07000156
E07000156
E07000156
E07000156
E07000156
E07000156
E07000156
E07000156
E07000156
E07000156
E07000156
E07000156
E07000156
E07000156
AREA
Wellingborough
Wellingborough
Wellingborough
Wellingborough
Wellingborough
Wellingborough
Wellingborough
Wellingborough
Wellingborough
Wellingborough
Wellingborough
Wellingborough
Wellingborough
Wellingborough
Wellingborough
Wellingborough
Wellingborough
Wellingborough
Wellingborough
Wellingborough
AGE GROUP 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037
0-4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
5-9
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
10-14
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
15-19
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
20-24
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
25-29
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
30-34
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
35-39
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
40-44
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
45-49
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
50-54
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
55-59
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
3
3
3
60-64
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
65-69
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
70-74
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
75-79
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
80-84
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
85-89
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
90+
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
All ages
37
38
38
38
38
39
39
39
39
40
40
40
40
41
41
41
41
41
42
42
42
42
42
43
43
43
P a g e | 141
Wellingborough – females
CODE
E07000156
E07000156
E07000156
E07000156
E07000156
E07000156
E07000156
E07000156
E07000156
E07000156
E07000156
E07000156
E07000156
E07000156
E07000156
E07000156
E07000156
E07000156
E07000156
E07000156
AREA
Wellingborough
Wellingborough
Wellingborough
Wellingborough
Wellingborough
Wellingborough
Wellingborough
Wellingborough
Wellingborough
Wellingborough
Wellingborough
Wellingborough
Wellingborough
Wellingborough
Wellingborough
Wellingborough
Wellingborough
Wellingborough
Wellingborough
Wellingborough
AGE
GROUP
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85-89
90+
All ages
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
39
39
39
39
39
40
40
40
40
41
41
41
41
41
42
42
42
42
42
42
43
43
43
43
43
43
P a g e | 142
Appendix 5 Data Sources
End of Life Care (2014)
http://www.endoflifecare-intelligence.org.uk/profiles/CCGs/Place_of_Death/atlas.html
-
Includes: place of death, CCG level data.
Fingertips (2014) http://fingertips.phe.org.uk/
-
Includes: general practice profiles.
HSCIC (2014) http://www.hscic.gov.uk/home
-
Includes: large range of social care data and health data.
Indices of Multiple Deprivation (2010) https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/english-indices-of-deprivation-2010
-
Includes: socioeconomic deprivation.
Longer Lives (2014) http://healthierlives.phe.org.uk/topic/mortality#are/E10000021/par/E92000001/ati/102/pat/
-
Includes: years of life lost to specific diseases.
P a g e | 143
MentalHealth.org (2014) http://www.mentalhealth.org.uk/help-information/mental-health-statistics/prisons/
-
Includes: prisoners mental health statistics.
Neighbourhood Statistics (2014) www.neighbourhood.statistics.gov.uk
-
Includes: population pyramids (current and predictions), neighbourhood summaries.
NOMIS (2014) http://www.nomisweb.co.uk/
-
Includes: population growth and predictions, labour market statistics.
Northamptonshire Analysis www.northamptonshireanalysis.co.uk
-
Includes: adult social care, children and young people, community involvement and social capital, community safety, economy, education and skills,
environment and living, health and wellbeing, performance measures, population and census.
ONS (2014) http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/datasets-and-tables/index.html
-
Includes: mid year population estimates, birth rates, fertility, under 18 conceptions, mortality (age standardised mortality, infant mortality,
neonatal mortality, perinatal mortality), life expectancy.
P a g e | 144
ODPM (2004) http://dera.ioe.ac.uk/5073/1/138631.pdf
-
Includes: overcrowding impact on health and education.
Prison Reform Trust (2014) http://www.prisonreformtrust.org.uk/Portals/0/Documents/Prisonthefacts.pdf
-
Includes: prisoner data.
Public Health Outcomes Framework (2014) http://www.phoutcomes.info/
-
Includes: sections on wider determinants of health, health protection, health improvement, healthcare public health and preventing premature
mortality.
POPPI and PANSI: www.poppi.org.uk and www.pansi.org.uk
-
Includes population predictions, by age gender and relative to specific conditions.
Rural Urban Classification (2011) https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/rural-urban-definition
-
Includes: rural/urban classifications
Stonewall (2011) http://www.stonewall.org.uk/documents/prescription_for_change.pdf
P a g e | 145
-
Includes LGBT prevalence data.
The Kings Fund http://www.kingsfund.org.uk
-
Includes: research on wider determinants of health
UN (2014) http://www.unhcr.org/52af08d26.html
-
Includes: refugees and asylum seekers.
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