POMEROY GRAIN GROWERS, INC.
NEWSLETTER
3/26/2013
SPRING
General Managers’ Message
By: Bob Cox
Easter is here and that means that good spring weather we all like is here;
snow, sunshine, hail, thunder, that cold wind, and hopefully rain. As they
say in the PNW, ‘If you don’t like the weather today, wait till tomorrow.’
Commodity prices are much like the weather in the spring, up and down, hot
and cold. We do like the volatility though, and yes, you can get on the
wrong side of it. Old crop prices are about 75 cents above the new crop
prices, and at some point, those will come together.
This week on March 28th, the USDA Intended Plantings report will be out
and it should show large corn acreages. Corn is the driver in the markets,
and a bearish report could drive our prices the wrong way. The good news
is wheat feeding is up, and the more wheat bushels that disappear, the better
chance of helping that price. Most of the time, this USDA report has a big
influence on the market, more negative than not. This is the time of the year
when grain buyers are willing to wait for new crop bushels and old crop and
new crop prices start that merging process.
The record setting rains of March 2012 didn’t show up this year, which
means our May-June rains become more important. The Eastern Corn Belt
is receiving better precipitation than last year and many states in the
Midwest are in much better shape than last year. This will probably send
new crop prices lower. We enjoyed an export barley program last fall and
let’s hope that continues. New crop barley is around the $200/ton, which is
a good place to start. Our crop insurance revenue guarantees might come
into play this year, so make sure you have your spring crop acres signed up
with your insurance agent. I believe the price guarantees will be above
market prices at harvest, but I hope I’m wrong.
There are a few new faces this year at the Grain Growers this spring. Brian
Smith is a new employee at the Agronomy Plant. We are excited to have
Brian and Nikki in Pomeroy. We are seeing a few young couples come
back to Pomeroy and welcome it very much. Levi Krouse is a new
employee on the grain side and will fit in well with our Central Ferry
employees. And yes, Piper Herres, is helping Debbie part-time at the
Agronomy Plant.
April 30th is our fiscal year end and it looks like another good year for the
co-op and patronage should be paid again in December. Thank you for your
continued support. Have a safe and productive spring.
Marketing Message
By: Joe Waldher
There is still a good sized short
position left in the Chicago wheat
market which provides a little upside
hope in the short term. Any short
covering rally and old crop soft white
should be sold. Old crop soft white
export business is not over but the shift
to purchasing new crop has begun for
the consistent buyer.
New crop soft white continues to hover
in the net seven dollar range. Any
short covering rally and it could easily
flirt with $8.00. It is really hard to pull
the trigger on any new crop when a
dollar has recently come out of the
futures market. $7.50-$8.00 is still a
really good price range.
The size of the 2013 US corn crop will
be the main market driver for the next
marketing year. Average yields and
close to one hundred million acres
would provide a lot of downward
pressure. This makes the March 1st
stocks and acres report that is released
March 28th pretty much a must read.
The other side of that coin is if the
water shuts off to the corn crop things
would get wild to the upside with two
corn droughts in a row.
As you are in the first steps of
investing in the 2014 crop this spring,
at the very least monitor the Chicago
futures for Sep/Dec 2014.
Good Luck!
Agronomy Message
Links of Interest:
By: Todd Ruchert
Chicago Board of Trade:
www.cmegroup.com
As we enter spring season for 2013 our rainfall for January thru mid- March
trails behind last year’s totals. Due to the lack of winter moisture
accumulation we have started spring work ahead of last year. In a recent
news release from W.S.U., Dr. Chen has indicated that stripe rust was found
on susceptible wheat varieties in their experimental field in Walla Walla.
Keeping that in mind, it’s a good idea to contact PGG agronomy division at
the earliest signs of sporulating leaves.
Farm Service Agency:
www.fsa.usda.gov
WA State Dept. of Ag.:
http://agr.wa.gov
WA Crop Improvement
www.washingtoncrop.com
P.G.G. has our Miller-Condor self- propelled sprayer to handle all your
custom spraying needs, also available is our custom cultivating with our 44ft.
John Deere cultivator and our 38ft. Horsch- Anderson No-Till drill for your
seeding needs.
WSU Seed Variety
http://variety.wsu.edu
Our spring seed varieties include: Louise (soft white wheat), 70% Jefferson30% Buck-Pronto (D.N.S.), 100% Buck- Pronto (D.N.S.), Champion Barley,
Hay-bet (Beardless Barley), SY-605CL (D.N.S.), CL- 1035 (soft white
wheat), Roundup Ready Canola and Alfalfa.
Garfield County, WA
www.co.garfield.wa.us
Give your local co-operative a call today to handle any of your spring season
needs or pre- harvest needs, we have a Certified Crop Advisor on staff and
several licensed commercial operators to handle your field scouting to any of
your custom application needs. We look forward to working with you this
spring and into harvest.
Weather Updates:
www.weatherunderground.com
www.anythingweather.com
WA Grain Alliance
www.wawg.org
Crop Insurance
www.agrlitewizard.com
Agrigcultural Marketing & Management
Organization (AMMO)
www.lcammo.org
Washington State D.O.T.
www.wsdot.wa.gov/commercialvechicle
P.O. Box 220
Pomeroy, WA 99347
(509) 843-1694
www.pomeroygrain.com