TABLE OF CONTENTS
1. INTRODUCTION
2
1.1 INTRODUCTION TO THE CASE
1.2 PROBLEM FORMULATION
3
4
2. HISTORICAL BACKGROUND
5
3. METHODOLOGY
7
3.1 RESEARCH STRATEGY (METHODOLOGY)
3.2 INTRODUCTION TO FRAGILITY
3.3 FRAMEWORK
7
8
13
4. THEORETICAL PART
18
4.1 MODERNIZATION THEORY
4.1.1 MODERNIZATION
4.1.2 THE COMPOSITION OF THE MODERNIZATION THEORY
4.1.3 THE MODERNIZATION THEORY AND ITS CRITIQUES
4.1.4 STATE-BUILDING
4.2 REALISM
4.2.1 RATIONAL CHOICE
4.3 WORLD SYSTEM THEORY
18
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
5. ANALYSIS
26
5.1. SOCIAL ASPECTS
5.2 ECONOMICAL PART
5.2.1 PREDICTIONS
5.3 GOVERNANCE ASPECTS
5.3.1 STATE HOOD
5.3.2 LEADERSHIP
5.3.3 DECENTRALIZATION AND SEPARATION OF POWER
5.4 EXTERNAL ACTORS
5.4.1 INTERVENTION
5.4.2 SECURITY ASPECT
5.4.2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
5.4.3 ANALYSIS ACCORDING TO THE FRAME
5.4.4 MAIN ANALYZE WITH REGARDS TO THE THEORETICAL APPROACHES
26
31
34
37
38
40
42
46
46
47
50
51
52
6. CONCLUSION
56
7. BIBLIOGRAPHY
59
8. APENDIX
65
1
1. INTRODUCTION
The South Sudan is an independent state since July 2011. After a long period of civil war and
conflicts between North and South Sudan, the citizens from the South had the possibility to
participate on a referendum about whether they want to establish and independent Southern
state. The referendum in January 2011 ended positive for the separation. This is mainly the
reason why we have chosen the South Sudan case for our investigations. Such a new country
can be a role model for other upcoming states, in terms of positive achievements. Besides,
that it can also contribute to the knowledge about the establishment of new states, through its
failures and challenges.
However, contemporary it has not achieved a role model status, because it can be described as
a fragile state. Therefore it can affect its environment in a negative way. Due to this reason
South Sudan`s situation can affect the international relations on a global level. Hence it also
attracted the interests of the international community. These interests are also based on the oil
resources of the South, which are important since all powerful countries are depending on this
raw material. Another important factor which draws attention is the lack of human
development. Moral issues are crucial for the developed countries in the world. Therefore
external actors try to advocate this and within that to implement a stable and secure
environment.
The stability of the South Sudan and the current situation is our main focus. Especially the
political circumstances and the governmental challenges are interesting, as this are the main
features for a focus in the international relations. Due to this stable governance is an important
factor for the purpose of this study. Stable governance is according to the United States
Institute of Peace
“ (…)the mechanism through which the basic human needs of the population are
largely met, respect for minority rights is assured, conflicts are managed
peacefully through inclusive political processes, and competition for power occurs
nonviolently. National and subnational government institutions may work with a
range of non-state partners to provide some of the government functions. Essential
services (…) security, the rule of law, economic governance, and basic human
needs services”
(USIP 2009: 98)
“Stability” is closely linked to its opposite “fragility”, because this counterpart is usually
adopted in connection to developmental states and used for most of the measurements
analysis and policy purposes.
2
To deal with this purpose in an adequate approach, this paper will begin with an brief
overview about South Sudan`s history to provide a background which is major for the
theoretical applications.
To analyze the current status two different methods are going to be used. The first analysis
will be realized through a methodological frame, which we generated. This methodological
frame is connected to the theoretical part of this paper. Here the main theories will be
described. The theoretical concepts we use are the Modernization Theory, the Realism with
short attachments of state-building and rational choice approach.
The main part of this paper is the Analysis of South Sudan’s current status. This part is
separated into four different types of aspects (social, economy, security, and governance) this
also includes an examination of external actors, their activities and interventions. Every
subchapter is dealing with the data description and after this a further brief analysis according
to our methodological frame. After this the main analysis where the theoretical assumptions
and the found evidences are compared will follow. Within the conclusion our main research
questions, which are mentioned within the problem formulation, are going to be addressed.
To the used literature will be, due to language barriers, focused on western literature since it
was not possible to access the Arabic literature for this project. This is a great limitation as
many data in the case of South Sudan might be published in Arabic.
1.1 INTRODUCTION TO THE CASE
The new country born out of a trouble land for decades of civil war which has resulted
internal displacement and huge flux of migration to neighboring countries (International
Peace Institute, May 2011).1Out of that it still faces huge economic and stability problems.
The unavailability of a proper infrastructure and the prevalence of extreme poverty, illiteracy
and internal tribal conflict coupled with the hostility and the border conflict with North Sudan
have become cumbersome task for the current transitional government(Ibid). These situations
has demanded the assistance and the intervention of international community under the name
called united nation mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) (Grawert 2011: 372 ) In addition to
this, the powerful states in particular have individually extended an open door policy to assist
South Sudan (Ibid).
1
The international Peace Institute, http://www.internationalpeaceandconflict.org/forum/topics/the-future-ofsouth-sudan
3
Fig 1 the map of South Sudan, North Sudan and neighboring countries.2
Save the similarity in economic back wardens during the establishment of African states soon
after decolonization, the historical context within which the state building process conducted
in South Sudan can be seen as different from the rest part of Africa in terms of
conceptualizing sovereign state.
1.2 PROBLEM FORMULATION
The project emphasizes much on state building and political stability. Even if achieving
developmental works and ensuring stability can go hand in hand, it is not a deniable fact that
without relative stability and peaceful environment, it is troublesome if not impossible to
launch meaningful developmental initiatives (Møller 2005: 1).
This project is devoted to find out the current status of the governance in South Sudan in
relation to strategies of state building, stability and external intervention. South Sudan is
attempting to establish modern state by adopting transitional constitution. Consequently, the
other main research question under this project is to find out as to how such current strategies
are being implemented or adopted in South Sudan state building and intervention.
It should be noted that it was the fear of international community that conflict may arise again
and spoil the already destabilized Sudan (IMF 2011/a). However, it will not be the main focus
2
Google map,
http://www.google.dk/search?q=south+sudan+map&hl=da&prmd=imvns&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=
X&ei=_6zwToTOKIqhOonVubgB&sqi=2&ved=0CDMQsAQ&biw=837&bih=461
4
of the paper to assess the impact of the intervention, as it would be too early to conduct
extensive measurements in the newly born State of Sudan. Besides, will be more wide and
unfocussed to go through also the impacts and deal it in one project. Still, it should be
underlined that it is an avoidable in the project to point out some successful and failure stories
with regards to the intervention. Moreover, we will attempt show the general trend and
scenarios what the current strategies may headed to.
2. HISTORICAL BACKGROUND
When South Sudan history traced back what comes to picture is the long civil war that lasted
nearly four decades between south Sudan rebels and the central government. The civil war
broke out few months before Sudan achieved its independence from British colonial rule in
1956 (Ahmed, E. 2010:117, Ahmed,G.: 2008:71-73).Even if, for the purpose of this project,
the history of the conflict reduced here into two main rivalry sides namely the government of
Sudan in on hand and the south Sudan rebel SPLM, on the other hand, the fact on the ground
has revealed the complexity of the environment which comprises multiple ethnic based
faction groups (Hassen 2008:107-109). In south Sudan, territory alone there were around 32
independent armed groups beyond direct control of the incumbent rebel group SPLM (Ibid).
The root problem of the conflict and the long protracted civil war between South rebels and
the central government of Sudan has been both political power and resource(Ibid) But
analysis uncovered that the role that struggle for political power and resources sharing as
causes of the conflict has historically played different role. Another important reason for the
ongoing war between North and South were the efforts of the North to rule the country under
the sharia law. The South did not agree with that because it is mainly minted by Christian and
traditional believes. Also the decision to make Arabic as the official language was not
accepted by the South because most of the people were not able to speak Arabic (Ibid).
From the time the war broke out in 1955 until peace accord of Addis in 1972, SPLM fought
for equal representation of South Sudan people in the central government and thereby to
assure fair allocation of budget and developmental schemes to Sothern territories (Peter Kok
1992:104-109). However, despite the attainment of peace for around 11 years after the Addis
Ababa peace accord, the people in south Sudan claimed that the central government did not
live up to its obligation in line with the agreement (Ibid). The south area continued a war torn
5
territory lacking the basic infrastructure and services (Ibid). The general public access to pure
water, education and basic health service is much lower than their counter part region, north
and central Sudan (Ahmed, G. 2008:73-78).
The discovery of oil in South Sudan territory further fuelled the conflict and war resumed
again after a decade of peace settlement reached since Addis Ababa accord signed (Ibid). The
central government intentional move to exclude the south from the oil resources discovered
from their own south territory and the secret deals with oil exploration companies resulted
mistrust in the relation of both sides (Peter Kok in Doornbos 1992:104-109).
It was the comprehensive peace agreement (CPA) which ended the bloody second phase of
the war in 2005 (Ahmed, E. 2010:117-126). CPA was a power sharing agreement with south
and north Sudan dichotomy in which the south represented the long year’s rebel fighters
SPLM. Besides, it outlined the road map for referendum for South Sudan (Ibid). The power
sharing agreement is a three years plan to assure a fair share of power and resources which
has ended the civil war in the south (Ibid). Though it is claimed that SPLM indirectly
represents all the subjugated of injustice across the whole Sudan, it was safe to assert that the
Darfur area was not fairly reflected in CPA (Ibid). Besides, there were more than 32 fighting
rebel groups in the south which were not in agreement with SPLM (Hassen 2008:107-109). At
this juncture, it must be noted that our main concern is South Sudan as a state we, are not
going to discuss the case of Darfur conflict, the parties of involved there internal and external
parties who have vested interested in the same conflict. Instead, we will resort to CPA and
thereby explain in brief the expectation of contacting parties out of the same agreement.
Here, the pivotal issue is here to reveal extent that the CPA implemented and the expectation
of the contacting parties and reality on the ground. As writers on the issue and organization
like the Crises group identified the, peace agreement had multiple obstacles in its
implementation.
Even there are some who had positive expectations on the CPA, under all the above
circumstances, the contracting parties as well as observers were less pessimistic regarding the
sustainability of the peace agreement (Ahmed,E. 2010: 117-126). The Sothern’s were also
looking forward more to the referendum for the independence of the South Sudan (Ibid). In
terms of forging external legitimacy which will look it in the coming paragraphs, SPLM
enjoys quite a considerable amount of support from West and Diasporas (Hassen 2008: 107109). These disputes among south rebels or political groups, in particular between SPLM and
6
others were surfaced during the April 2010 election to represent south Sudan in in national
assembly of the interim government in Khartoum (Ibid). Opposition political groups blamed
SPLM for election irregularities (Ibid).
Having pointed out the national or indigenous movement for the struggle for equality,
freedom and self-determination; proceeding without stating the role of external actors during
the civil periods before the South independence, will make our future analysis superficial.
Though the external involvement during the long four decades of civil war so complex,
discussing it in brief under this project would not make it superfluous. To begin with, even
during colonial periods under British rule, compare to the north and central part of Sudan, the
admiration system was different (Heracildes 1987:214-228). The colonial strategy of Britain
in the south was allowing the traditional tribal administration and chiefdoms to continue,
while modern alike system was put in place in northern Sudan (Ibid). Such approach
maintained the detachment of south from north. After independence when the North
denounced the tribal administration and imposed full integration depriving rights of equal
citizenship rights, south began their struggle (Ibid). But they were not alone, in early 1960s;
they used to get armaments from Israel via Ugandan and Ethiopian government (Ibid). Hence,
the South gruella fighters could depend to the Ethiopian line.
3. METHODOLOGY
3.1 RESEARCH STRATEGY (METHODOLOGY)
This project will be written by applying different theoretical and methodological approaches
to deal with the research questions. Given the fact that the South Sudan is a new country; on
one hand, it may be early to judge the process of state building. On the other hand, such a new
state can be an opportunity to look the initial process and thereby pave the way for successful
state building process. This project is not concerned in coming up with a state building
strategy that fits the South Sudan case but rather to show the context within which the process
is being derived. This context comprises the political economic and social conditions that
prevail. Therefore the main focus of the project will be assessing governance and
interventions that are taking place in the current state building process in South Sudan.
Hence, the next issue will be to draw a method and particular theories as well as concepts that
can be applied in this project. The point of departure will be the main theory that can be
directly related to the state building process, which is the modernization theory. The concepts
7
of state fragility and dimension that can be applied to evaluate fragility which are applied in
this project frame work are all part of the modernization theory or linked to it (Chase-Dunne
2008: 108-113).Given the fact that the new south Sudan sate lucks the financial, technological
capability and the stability; the international community and the western world are involving
in the state building process in various forms (IMF 2011/a). Modernization theory claims that
if the particular strategies of establishing effective governance are followed and implemented
appropriately, it is possible to develop and modernize a new backward nation, like South
Sudan. Another important impact of the modernization theory is that through this theory the
interventions of other states and organizations are legitimate.
Sates assistance and intervention of any kind from the developed nations can always be driven
by self-centred agendas and interest; we will consider the theory of realism as part of this
project (Chase-Dunne 2008: 90-105). Particularly, the direct and indirect intervention in form
of deploying peace keeping forces, and providing advisory service from the international
community or imposing one, will be addressed in the project. Nevertheless limiting this papr
with two theories, which are both theories of problem solving may not show all the general
picture and scenario in the international relations. Hence, we resorted to the world system
theory which criticizes the current world structure where to be there is strong and dominant in
one hand and weak and subordinated countries on the other hand (Hobden 2008: 147-149).
To analyze the status of the state- building process this study is not just using a theoretical
frame. We also created our own framework with dimensions, sub-dimensions and a set of
indicators. This frame will be linked to the theories which mean that important facts will be
explained at the framework and after the methodology part used within the theoretical one to
embed the facts in our theoretical frame.
3.2 INTRODUCTION TO FRAGILITY
The preoccupation with fragile states is crucial due to several reasons. First of all, the
normative reasons for an investigation of this topic are that more than one-six of the world
population lives in states that are counted to fragile states and these are due to many scientists
the states which are farthest away from reaching the Millennium Development Goals. State
fragility is major as instable and uncertain environments can set back all the achieved
improvements of aid and policy changes. Therefore fragility is an essential factor for all
affords to reduce global poverty or enhance development.
8
Furthermore are the threads through fragile states, since these have crucial impacts on their
neighbor countries in terms of security and economic stability. Besides, the connection
between fragile states, violence and conflicts are in the opinion of many scholars obvious and
inseparable (Ghani and Lockhart 2008 as quoted in Carment 2010). The theoretical
background where the issue of states fragility can be linked to is the modernization theory.
Furthermore there are scientific reasons to study and analyze the patterns of fragility of states.
Due to Carment the issue itself is currently a challenge to social science in general since it is a
major issue which`s importance is increasing regarding the increasing interdependence of
states in general (Carment 2010: 3). For this reason it is important to all scholars and
practitioners who are located in development work, international relations or globalization
scholars or other sub-disciplines. Due to this variety and different perspectives the definitions
and concepts of fragile states multilateral and diverse” (Carment 2010: 4).
In general “fragile states” are usually seen as the negative counterpart to the notion what a
state should be like. Terms like stable and strong are usually used in the context for a
functioning state, while a fragile state includes notions about several lacks of capacity and
functions. The theoretical historical foundation for “fragility” in theory can be linked to the
modernization theory, since it is a notion about state concept, including state development and
conditions. However the work during that period was based on the assumption that the
processes of development in social, political and economic dimensions are “unilinear”. This
contains the assumption about a single stringent chain of causality.
This view was criticized later and adjusted to terms of interdependence between “good
governance” and stability. Later the conception of “weak-states” got introduced trough
Migdal. His conception focuses on state capacities in theory and the actual state capacities in
reality, examining the tensions between these.
There used to be two main theoretical camps for the notion about fragile states. They were
mainly characterized by their orientation towards certain policy strategies. The first is directed
towards conflict policies, while the second is related to development policies. They both were
aligned to the unilinear approach and focused on indicators either from the conflict or
development point of view. These approaches became seen as too narrowed and broader statebuilding theories became more accepted (Carment 2010: 16f).
The contemporary approaches differ from the former ones mainly in two main aspects. On the
one hand they acknowledge the diversity of state fragility and reject to relate state failure
9
exclusive to one of the two above mentioned causes. Hence they approve that states can have
weaknesses and strengths in different dimensions and simultaneously. On the other hand they
integrate the notion that structure and agency need to be included in these theoretical
approaches. In general the “new” approaches focused on the multilateral dimensions of states
and state functions (Carment 2010: 17)
In the scientific theory there are several approaches to define and identify state fragility. This
is mainly caused by the different interest the scholars of various fields have in this specific
topic. Hence, an examination of some of the definitions will be useful with specific regards to
the problem formulation of this study.
However Carment claims that the different approaches are kept independent from each other
and that this limits the content of all approaches since this cannot generate a holistic
perspective. They highlight that an interdisciplinary discourse is inevitable to cover all
relevant aspects and to generate a definition and a framework which could provide a stable
working basis (Carment 2010: 4).
There is a variety of different definitions and approaches in the field of fragile states. For this
study some major concepts will be examined and introduced to give a brief overview. Due to
limitations, of this paper, not all current debates and contradictions, this aspect generates will
be discussed in detail. Nevertheless it needs to be mentioned that the foci of different scholars
are broad and the assumptions of key elements differ heavily.
The Journal of Developing Societies, for instance, defines fragile or failed states “(…) when it
is (the state) unable to perform its core functions and displays vulnerability in the social,
political and economic domains.” (Sekhar 2010: 263). This is a very broad definition but it
seems useful to set a theoretical foundation, since the key unit (state) and the three main
dimensions are detected. To narrow this down scholars defined fragility as
“the extent to which the actual practices and capacities of states differ from their idealized
image” (Carment 2010: 84), more precisely “(it) is a measure of the extend, to which the
actual institutions, functions and processes of a state fail to accord with the strong image of a
sovereign state, the one reified in both state theory and international law” (Carment 2010: 84).
On the other hand other scientists like Meirheinrich focused their assumptions about fragile or
failed states more on the social perspective. He proposes that the major cause for state
fragility is a lack or loss of loyalty from the citizens towards the government. According to
10
this approach loyalty and trust can be lost if governments are not able to fulfill the
expectations of their citizens (Carment 2010: 80).
In the publication of Moreno-Torres and Vallings 2005 the term fragility is exchangeable with
instability or weakness. They refer to ineffective states, which are not able or willing to
perform the least necessary functions and responsibilities. The key factors for weakness in
their assumption are: “loss of territorial control, low administrative capacity, political
instability, conflict (…) and low acceptance of rule of law” (Vallings 2005: 6).
The issue of defining and assessing state fragility is addressed in several agendas and
assessments of global actors and countries. Especially in the last decades the number of these
increased and tools and frameworks emerged.
Since the purpose of this paper is based on political and governmental investigation of
stability, the choice of definition has to be done in regard to this. Furthermore it needs to
provide frameworks and conceptualizations, which are adequate to investigate the introduced
problem. Several useful approaches were discussed and in conclusion two specific concepts
seemed most sufficient. Therefore the main aspects and assumptions of these will be depicted,
summarized.
The first concept introduced through Clements is sufficient for this purpose, since it is based
on political features and the conceptualization.
The definitions vary not only in terms of focuses and orientation but also in their expressions
and use of terms. Visible for instance on the different “types” of failed states which got
introduced and specified. Terms like: weak states, quasi-states, dysfunctional-states and
several more. This concept implies that the term “fragile states” include weak states, falling/
failed states, and collapsed states. Furthermore this nomenclature embraces the categories of
developing states and democratizing states and locations them in connection to the further
mentioned ones (Carment 2010: 7).
According to Carment fragility is a process as well as a function. The focus on three main
dimensions for this measurement: authority legitimacy and capacity. To ensure a clear
understanding of this definition and conceptualization it is necessary to introduce the major
features in a brief summary.
“Authority” is here described in terms of a government that is able to perform in an effective
manner; this implies the delivery of core public goods, which include security and
11
macroeconomic stability. This “effective governance” is based on “sufficiently and robust
state institutions” for the provision of acceptable policy outcomes. Furthermore this concept
implies a focus on the extent to which a state has binding legislation, control over its territory,
and ensure provision of public goods and environment stability. If a state is lacking this
authority it is here claimed as one with “weak authority”.
The second notion is “legitimacy” which is in this approach an expression of “the ideational
(…) loyalty that the governing regime commands with the population.”(Carment 2010: 88).
To put this in measurable terms this is based on five assumptions.

The longer a regime lasts in a particular from, the more legitimacy it has

The legitimacy of democracy is higher than the one within other kind of
regimes

The legitimacy is higher within a state that aligned to the human rights

The legitimacy of a state that struggles against discrimination is higher than
from one that does not

The legitimacy of states that act in an environmentally beneficial ways is
higher than of the states which does not
The third main feature is “capacity” which is determined as state-society relations. It focuses
on the states resources (human, economic, natural) and examines to what extend these are
available. Furthermore capacity describes here the ability of a state to mobilize and use these
resources.
The other definition which seemed appropriate is the one of Vallings and Moreno-Torres.
They focus mainly on the political features state fragility includes and on the drivers which
shape processes in this context.
Vallings and Moreno-Torres notion includes a processual quality and changing features in
terms of fragility over time. Their assumptions are based on four different aspects: the drivers
of fragility, political instability, political institutions and legitimacy. According to Vallings
and Moreno-Torres these four dimensions are crucial for any investigation of state fragility.
To ensure an understanding of their approach a short summary of this is necessary.
12
First the term “political instability” is introduced and its processual quality is illustrated. This
describes a process which is highly challenging for a state and could be caused by either
regime change or violent conflict. Secondly “political institutions” are in this context defined
as “(…) the frameworks of rules structuring the behaviour of, in this case, political actors that
exercise, distribute and enforce political power. Weak institutions are those that cannot
(Vallings 2005:6).They point out that “Strong political institutions are those that can
effectively constrain abuse of power (…)”and emphasize that strong is not equal to
“repressive” but could rather be equated with “well functioning” (Vallings 2005).The
“legitimacy” is in their description, connected to governments which are legitimated through
the attitude of their citizens. Therefore they must be in some way accountable and responsive
to the people they represent” (Vallings 2005:6). Finally the “driver” is a factor which is
crucial for the appearance and characteristics of new circumstances. For them it implies in
specific structural features, such as resources (human and natural), social and economic
structures, institutions and agents (Vallings 2005).
The main focus will lay on the concepts of Vallings and Moreno-Torres, since this approach
includes a focus on the governmental structures. Nevertheless it is necessary to take into
consideration the limits this specific conceptualization has for a further investigations. This is
caused by the distinct focus on the drivers of fragility and governmental institutions. Even
though these are important for any further investigation, there is a need to embrace some
additional features. These involve investigations of effective governance and external
influences, which are not always purely related to governmental institutions.
3.3 FRAMEWORK
To investigate the political and in specific governmental situation of the South Sudan a frame
(work) is needed to determine the following analytical procedure. However most of the
current frameworks and agendas, dealing with issues of state fragility or stability, are mainly
based on country comparisons. Therefore an alignment to this study is inevitable. Besides that
most of the indexes and frameworks in the current literature are designed for the needs and
interests of donors and other external players.
To ensure a reliable analysis, existing frameworks will be used, to develop a specific basis
and gain through the combination and modification a groundwork for a profound
investigation. This procedural method is supposed to provide traceability and comparability of
the achieved findings. The frame needs to include the main determinants for the investigation.
13
Since there is so far virtually no consensus about the measurement of state fragility between
the scientists, we think that to create one that fits our purpose is appropriate.
To create a groundwork for our empirical investigation, we followed mainly the proposal of
“Users Guide on measuring fragility” by UNDP and DIE (Deutsches Institut fuer
Entwiklungszusammenarbeit). The five main steps to create a useful and sufficient basis are
depicted. These are: first the description of the background concept, secondly the
systematization of this, after that the selection and measurement of the specific indicators,
hereafter the calculation of “index scores” and finally the presentation of results (Mata 2009:
11). Despite this basic steps some important acknowledgements and decisions have to be
made according to this propose. Since the aim of this study is a classification of the South
Sudan, but rather an explorative and explanatory investigation we use this frame not for
ranking or rating South Sudan, but rather explain our findings in detail.
First of all the assumption that fragility is a process as well as a condition is agreed on in this
paper. However the main approach in this study is not to examine the entire process of South
Sudan´s political development, rather to investigate the temporary conditions and current
situations. In addition this paper will not assess whether the current South Sudanese
government is fragile (since this due to its historical past and the contemporary state building
not really in doubt). Hence the examination will be rather focused on the characteristics,
features and intensity of the South Sudanese governmental constitution. Therefore the basic
notions and assumptions about stable governance will also be included in this specific frame
to ensure a comprehensive analysis.
It is inevitable to set the basic commitments and determinations, which will lead to the main
dimensions for fragility, which will be later, investigated (Mata 2009: 13). The approach is to
expose which dimensions are most relevant for the analysis of this study.
The determinants for state fragility are in the main literature usually claimed to be, “politics”,
“economics”, “security” and “social” (USAID: 2005), the terms vary from social to welfare,
for example Carment divide the dimensions in: governance, economics, security and crime,
human development, demography and environment (Carment 2010:90). Another approach is
established from Vallings and Moreno-Torres; they use one main feature (political
institutions) and relate all other dimensions to it (Vallings 2005).
The five main dimensions which will be investigated in this paper are: governance (politics);
economic; human development (social aspects); security and natural resources. First of all it is
14
necessary to establish some main conventions. These dimensions are heavily interrelated and
for that reason often not completely divisible. The connections and interdependencies will
have to be taken into account to generate a sufficient investigation.
Besides that there are basic assumptions due to the reviewed literature which need to be
addressed. The notions about stability and fragility of states are mostly connected to
assumptions about “legitimacy” and “effectiveness”. To connect these notions to the
dimensions is inevitable to determine the characteristics further. However this strategy is only
useful if it is aligned to the interest to generate a base for a future assessment. Hence the
definition has to be concrete enough to depict indicators for it.
Furthermore a brief introduction about the several interconnections and interdependencies of
the dimensions and sub-sets will be provided. The focus for this will be especially the
interrelations to “governance”.
Especially for this dimension the notion about “performance” and “legitimacy” is major for
any investigative procedures. The performance is mainly connected to “efficiency”. Several
frameworks have been generated to examine the status and processes in political systems.
However their foci are also highly diverse and determined by very different research
questions. Frameworks are specified on one particular dimension or even on one of the subdimensions.
First the challenges and probable impractically to collect certain data sets need to be
addressed. Secondly the relevance of a dimension in the connection to the main focus in our
research is another determination.
The dimension is very brought and characterized by several sub-sets. These sub-sets are
highly interrelated and are in the literature separated in various ways. However the main focus
is on “performance” and “legitimacy” these are mostly depicted as the superior features of the
dimension of governance. Therefore these are accountable for almost all sub-sets. To make
use of these features they need to be more defined:
The term “performance” is largely equivalent with ”effectiveness” which is for instance
defined by the USAID as ” Political institutions and processes that adequately ensure response
to
citizen
needs”
(USAID
2005:
4)
or
more
specified
by
the
WB
as
“capturing perceptions of the quality of public services, the quality of the civil service and the
degree of its independence from political pressures, the quality of policy formulation and impl
15
ementation, and the credibility of the government's commitment to such policies” (Kaufmann
2010: 4). The last approach is for our research not so adequate since the structures in South
Sudan are very new and it seems unlikely that an assessment whether they commit to the
introduced policies is already possible. Legitimacy is general defined by Carment and is
specified for the several sub-sets.
The dimension “economics” is major in connection to fragility and stability of governance
since the macroeconomic performance of states influence policies and are also determined
through political influences. The financial capacities of states and their economic
management are major in this context. Besides that economic issues influence social aspects.
The third dimension “security” is highly interrelated to governmental issues since the control
and the legal frame for this are subjects of the politic. Furthermore the expenses and
management is usually not separated from governance. In addition there are in general
external players and certain interventions involved in security patterns, which indicates
acceptance and approval from governmental sides.
The “social aspects” are in general crucial to investigations which are related to governance
since good governance is defined in terms of connection between political activities towards
the civil society. Furthermore the human development is one of the major duties for
governments.
Finally the feature of “natural resources” is an additional feature, only included as main
dimension since the role of this issue is major for this specific topic and needs to be integrated
in this conceptualization.
The sub-sets for the main dimensions are crucial to examine certain indicators later, which
will be the basis for the further investigation. It is crucial to identify these according to the
sub-dimensions to create a reasonable connection to the purpose of this paper and the
following conclusion.
It is major to clarify that most of the sub-sets are generated through several literature
evidences and that their distinction is not homogenous in the researched material. Furthermore
there were several approaches excluded due to the special needs of this study.
For the choice for the indicators and their composition they had to fulfill following criteria:
16

Indicators have to provide a logic connection to the papers problem
formulation

Indicators should require data which are actually available in this specific case

Indicators are chosen by their relevance (founded on literature findings not
own evidence)

Indicators which are measurable without a focus on time
According to the “Users Guide on MEASURING FRAGILITY” the different forms of
indicators which are in use in indices are aligned to three different phases:
First the so called “input indicators” which refer to structural, rights and commitment issues.
These are focusing the given structural conditions and their qualities, including mainly
institutions, processes and legal frameworks in a specific country. These are usually
connected to patterns of human rights, division of powers or country membership in
organizations.
The second are described as “process indicators” which are claimed to measure efforts which
are made to ensure specific outcomes. They are depicted as examining responsibilities and
these include for example different expenditures (military and health care) and more.
Last the “output indicators” these gather information about activities and actions which show
outcomes or performances. Output indicators usually include data about unemployment and
violence (e.g. number of conflict related deaths per year) (Mata 2009: 15).
On the basis of this distinction the main indicators in the case of South Sudan will be
classified as “input indicators”, since the novelty of this political system and the state itself
are mostly not predestinated for the data collections of the other two phases.
Besides that, since the availability of data is fairly limited, we agreed to use predictions and
evidence based assumptions of scholars and professionals of this field as data sources. Even
though these might not be as precise as actual measurements they can still provide certain
insights which are relevant for our appraisal. We acknowledge that this kind of data could
generate certain “systematic deviations” (“expert bias”) and that this has to be regarded during
the analysis (Mata 2009: 15).
(To get an insight in the used framework and indicator-sets see annex1)
17
4. THEORETICAL PART
4.1 MODERNIZATION THEORY
4.1.1 MODERNIZATION
The term “modernization” has a lot of different interpretations and approaches, for instance
Smelser’s sociological approach (structural differentiation), Rostow’s economic approach,
and Coleman’s political approach, the differentiation-equality-capacity model. The
sociological and the economic approach will not be described here, as this is not relevant for
this specific project. (So 1990: 26-31)
Coleman defines political modernization as a process of
“(1) differentiation of political structure and (2) secularization of political culture
(with the ethos of equality), which (3) enhance the capacity of society’s political
system”(So 1990: 31).
The first part of this definition is in Coleman’s view the most important aspect of the
development process of political systems. He describes differentiation as the separation and
specialization of political institutions within a political system; this process results a higher
degree of interdependence, a stronger functional specialization, what leads to higher structural
complexity. The second part implies that political modernization is the pursuit of the
implementation of equality. These fragments lead in this concept to growth of political
capacity. Political capacity can be measured in terms of (So 1990: 31-32):
“ - scale of political community
-
Efficacy of the implementation of political decisions
Penetrative power of central governmental institutions
Comprehensiveness of the aggregation of interests by political associations
Institutionalization of political organization and procedure
Problem- solving capabilities
Ability to sustain new political demands and organization” (So 1990: 32).
Out of this descriptions Coleman found six crises of modernization:
“(1) the crisis of national identity during the transfer of loyalty from primordial
groups to the nation
(2) the crisis of political legitimacy for the new state
18
(3) the crisis of penetration (the difficulty in effecting policies throughout the
society through the central government)
(4) the crisis of participation when there is a lack of participatory institutions to
channel rising mass demands to the state
(5) the crisis of integration of various divisive political groups
(6) the crisis of distribution that arises when the state is unable to bring about
economic growth and distribute enough goods, services, and values to satisfy
mass expectations” (So 1990: 32).
To measure the extent of the modernization of a political system, it is necessary, according
Coleman, to comprise the degree of its successful development of its capacities to deal with
the mentioned crisis (So 1990: 32).
4.1.2 THE COMPOSITION OF THE MODERNIZATION THEORY
The modernization theory consists of two major parts an evolutionary and a functionalist one.
The evolutionary approach was generated to understand the development from a traditional
society to a modern one. It came up after the Industrial and the French Revolution in order to
explain the change of societies. Three main features characterize this stream of the
modernization theory. First the social change is seen as unidirectional and predetermined. The
second distinction defines the changing process as positive since it leads to humanity and
civilization. And the last one denotes the evolutionary process as slow and peaceful. This
transformation takes centuries to be complete. (So 1990: 18-19)
The functionalist approach within the modernization theory is mainly minted by Parsons. He
compared the human society with a biological organism. He described that the different parts
of a biological organism can be settled with the different institutions of a society. He
concluded that the institutions in a society are interrelated and interdependent like the parts of
a biological organism. Based on this, Parsons sees a specific function for each institution to
stabilize society and to support its growth. (So 1990: 20)
Parsons created the concept of “functional imperatives” including four functions a society
must conduct.
“ -
adaptation to the environment- performed by the economy
Goal attainment- performed by the government
Integration (linking the institutions together)- performed by the legal institutions
and religion
Latency (pattern maintenance of values from generation to generation)- performed
by the family and other education “ (So 1990: 20).
19
Parsons also formulated a concept called “homeostatic equilibrium”. This implies that
institutions are interdependent and changes in function or structure of one has impacts on
others. (So 1990: 20-21)
One critique on Parsons’ system is that it is too conservative, because he believes that the
change of societies will be peaceful and stable, like a biological organism. (So 1990: 21)
4.1.3 THE MODERNIZATION THEORY AND ITS CRITIQUES
The modernization theory as a theory came up after the Second World War to explain the new
world order and the leadership role of the United States (So 1990: 36). It mainly explains why
some countries are developed more than others. The modernization theory describes the
modernization process of a country caused by technical changes and technical development.
The technical development is, according to the modernization theory, depending on
interrelations between states.
The economic development process is seen as a process where the traditional societies
become more complex and marked off. The countries have to change their traditional ways,
including values, behavior and institutions. “Modern” values are for example values which
initiate hard work and efficiency. The modernization theory claims that these values do not
exist in traditional societies. (Andersen 2006: 252)
Another problem the modernization theory identifies is the problem of the communism in the
less developed states and that a system change would be inevitable. This can be reached
through the changes from traditional values to institutionalization of democratic devolution.
Also the support and advocacy (like investments, aid and interventions) from powerful
countries, is seen positive and legitimate for the modernization process (So 1990: 36)
The theory is inspired of different works of some theoretician like Huntington or Max Weber.
Max Weber’s work “The Protestant Ethic and the Spirit of Capitalism”, describes economic
development in Europe during the Industrial Revolution as an outcome of the values and
attitudes of the religion, the Protestantism (Andersen 2006: 252)
The theory can partially explain why some countries become successful and others do not, but
its explanations are limited since the economic and political context of the national
development is not taken into consideration. Another critique is that the economically
developed nations, like the US, have superior values, and this can lead to the notion that
certain states can be blamed for their own underdevelopment. Whether or not a country
20
develops could also be a result of the developed countries exploiting the less powerful
countries. The theory also blank out the relations and dependencies between states which can
affect the economic and social status. (Andersen 2006: 252)
The liberal notion of free markets, which are a basic assumption in the modernization theory,
is highly debated. Critics say that markets without the government’s influence cannot develop
a state. Since governments can animate economic development in forms of export strategies,
import restrictions or embargoes. (Andersen 2006: 252-253)
With respect to the mentioned critics we expand the introduced theoretical approach of the
modernization theory with the theoretical basis of “state-building”, including fragile states.
This combination is needed for our approach to explain and to see the development of the
government in South Sudan and its stability.
4.1.4 STATE-BUILDING
The state-building agenda came up in the post- Cold War world. It was necessary at that time
because of the collapse of the bipolar Cold War Order. This old order was a sign for stability
and it also helped to compensate weakness of other states. After this collapse there was a need
for international help in state-building out of some humanitarian problems and the
globalization. This diversification let the world belief that the state in general is in crisis.
Because of this crisis status interventions are necessary to save the state after state weakness
became a global problem. Due to this a general view of what state-building should be was
created. (Robinson 2007: 2-3)
Samuel Huntington’s study “Political Order in Changing Societies” from the 1960s was
important for the political development studies during the end of the twentieth century. In his
view the most important part to build a state is the building of a domestic consensus. This
means to create a political community and a government with legitimacy. The government
can establish stability but not without stabilization and institutionalization of the political
field. It is not enough just to create institutions, the link between them, the political parties
and the society is the main issues to make a real state work. The representation within the
government has to have a strong legitimacy from the society to substitute for them. (Chandler
2007: 71-72)
The Department for International Development (DFID) carved out three main aspects an
effective state needs: capability, accountability and responsiveness.
21
“- Capability- the extent to which leaders and governments are able to get things done
-
Accountability- the ability of citizens, civil society and the private sector to
scrutinise public institutions and governments and hold them to account
Responsiveness- whether public policies and institutions respond to the needs of
citizens and uphold their rights” (DFID 2011: 7-8).
A weak state can be defined as a state which does not have “capacities to penetrate society,
regulate social relationships, extract resources, and appropriate or use resources in determined
ways” (Robinson 2007:3). If these capacities are high the state has an infrastructural power.
This means that the decision- making power is created “by negotiation of its functions, rights
and responsibilities, with this negotiation carried out through the interaction of state officials
and social representatives” (Robinson 2007:3). As mentioned within the methodology part for
our project weak states are included under the category failed states. Also our used definition
and the concept of a failed state are stated in the methodology part.
4.2 REALISM
The realism theory arouse through the Cold War. It describes the international system as a
system where the states are just struggling for power among their self- interests (Walt 1998:
31). There is no overarching authority and the state sovereignty will be protected by the
national communities (Underhill 2006:9).
There are a lot of definitions of realism and we are just going to mention the most important
ones for our approach. Hans Morgenthau was the leading realist of the 1950s and 1960s. He
said that politics are governed by objective laws which have their roots in human nature.
Human nature is domesticated by hierarchical political authority and rule. The main aspect
which helps the states within the international politics is the concept of interests defined in
terms of power. Those are driven by the different contents. (Donnelly 2002: 7, 10, 15)
This guides to the pessimistic view about conflicts and war. The classical realists Hans
Morgenthau compares states with human beings what leads to the conclusion that states are
willing to dominate others. This will let them make wars. This kind of acting can be called a
zero-sum game, because no state can reach its goals. In contrast of the classical realism the
neo-realism sees the international system as a system of anarchy full of great powers they try
to survive on its own. Kenneth Waltz is one of the famous neo-realist, against Morgenthau’s
view; he argues that bipolarity is more stable than multipolarity. (Walt 1998: 31)
22
Robert Keohane sees within the realism a rational assumption. Within this assumption states
are rational actors seeking to maximize their power (Donnelly 2002: 7).
Out of this the units of analysis within the realism are the states as rational actors which are
driven by their self-interests (Walt 1998: 38). Non-state actors have no attention (Underhill
2006:11). The states are using their economic and military power to reach their goals (Walt
1998:38). This use shows that the economic power is related to the issues of national security,
which directed to the conclusion that the politics drive the economics. (Underhill 2006: 9;
Schmidt 2011) The security is the primary aspect in the international politics (Underhill 2006:
11).
Another theorist, John Mearsheimer sees, like Waltz, the international system as an anarchy.
In his notions states are instrumentally rational and everything is about military power and the
capability to destroy each other. (Donnelly 2002: 7)
4.2.1 RATIONAL CHOICE
To explain why the actors or in the realism case the states intervene and also to bring some
non state actors within the theoretical frame we are using the rational choice theory, because
the focus of this theory is in general on actors and not just on states. And the focus of the
realism theory which is basically on self interested states was not enough for our approach in
the South Sudan case.
There are three main components of the diversity of the rational choice theory they all have in
common. (1) The starting point are always actors, (2) these actors have resources and
different preferences. (3) Also included in the theory is a decision rule. (Diekmann 2004: 15)
As mentioned the starting point within this approach are actors which enact resources. The
decision about how to use these resources is managed by their own preferences. Social
interactions between different actors are mostly economic transactions leaded by the actor’s
rational choices. The whole interactions are measured by its benefits and costs. These actors
are driven by their goals; therefore the actor is using its decisions rationally based on a
hierarchy of all its preferences. These preferences are maximizing benefits and minimizing
costs. The interactions within the rational choice theory are following several basic
conditions. One condition is the previous mentioned property of any kind of resources.
(Diekmann 2004: 15, Zey 1998: 1-3)
23
Another one are opportunity costs “these costs associated with forgoing the next most
attractive course of actions” (Friedman and Hechter 1988: 202, as quoted in Zey 1998: 2). The
third one are institutional norms. These norms are for example policies of organizations or
governmental laws. The last important issue is information which are important to make
rational decisions. In general the rational choice approach does not work with group
decisions, just with aggregated individual actions. (Diekmann 2004: 15, Zey 1998: 1-3)
In our case the actors are states or organizations which intervene within other countries. The
resources they use are mainly money, technology, institutional regulations and other
restrictions. But they can also use sanctions as a sort of power to realize their goals.
(Diekmann 2004:15)
The preference or the interest of the actors is mainly the utility. A part of the intervention
reason is also explained by the use of the realism theory, because the actors are selfinterested. (Diekmann 2004:15)
4.3 WORLD SYSTEM THEORY
In the preceding section of this project, theories of modernization and realism are assessed
precisely so as to apply them in analyzing the political, economic and social relations in South
Sudan. These theories are status-quo theories that are concerned only in explaining in their
own perspective as to what is prevailing in international relations; and can be used only as
problem solving theories (Hobden 2008: 147-151). As opposed to these theories, the world
system theory goes beyond revealing and analyzing facts by looking at the same world
through a different eyeglass. A world system theory is categorized with critical theories of
Marxists which are dedicated to an emancipation agenda for inventing a different socio and
economic system which can change or replace the given world order by another (Ibid).
The origin of this theory rooted to the Lenin's Pamphlet entitled “Imperialism; the highest
stage of capitalism”, in his attempt to apply the concept of Marx, which discussed the
inequality of two ladder structures in the world economy where the dominant rich countries
are the core that exploits the weak or poor that are less developed periphery countries (Ibid).
However, the theory is attributed to the Sociologist Immanuel Wallerstein who analyzed the
relations and the status of states in the world economy of different historical periods in
explaining the complexity of social relation and synthesizing it to a world system in which
24
countries can be placed in the three tiers of world structure based on division of labor (Dunn
1995:389-396).
According to him, the world system has passed through various historical stages, but mainly
divided into two, namely the old empire world system and the modern world system (John
Bayls). It is not the purpose of this paper to look more in depth about the empire based world
system since it seems remote and much less relevant to the project in hand.
When we come to the modern world system, Wallerstein asserts that it began in the 16th
century in Europe in line with the emergence of capitalism (Ibid). He points out that the
modern world system subsist of three layers of structure where the centre is known as the core
which consists of rich and powerful countries, semi periphery and partially advanced
economies, and the poor and weak periphery countries (Ibid). The economic relation in the
three layer world system is structured on an exploitive division of labor where it transfers
wealth and surplus from the periphery to the core and semi core (Hobden 2008: 147-151). The
core is identified with democratic government, high wage as well as welfare and advanced
technology and industrialized economy (Ibid). The semi periphery is characterized by a
totalitarian government, relatively low wage, minimum welfare, semi industrialized and
agriculture based economy with rapidly advancing technology catching up the core (Ibid).
The periphery is identified with a non-democratic government, very low wage, lack of welfare
and a backward agriculture economy. The modern world system is not static, but rather
dynamic. Historically some countries have moved downwards or upwards from one layer to
another, but the exploitative structure has remained intact (Ibid). In addition to that the core is
led by a country with hegemonic power (Ibid). The main determinant elements that fluid the
dynamic nature of the modern world system in ensuring the historical trajectory of the system
are cyclical rhythms, secular trend, contradictions and crises (Ibid).
He argues that each development from one world system to another involves transition
periods which can be accompanied by engines of transition which are mentioned above (Ibid).
He further asserts that a world system has developmental stages from inception to its demise
where in between there is always the middle stage (Dunn 1995: 389-396).
Recently, various writers exerted endeavors to further enhance the conceptual framework
established by Wallerstein. Among such writers Christopher Chase Dunn who renders much
more on an inter-state system than Wallerstein is pivotal to mention (Ibid). He and others
criticized Wallerstein by clarifying in their research contending that Europe was not the core
25
region in 16th century but Asia (China) was the centre. Even some argue that before Europe
became the centre of a modern world system, an integrated Eurasian core existed in which
Europe remained periphery empires of Asia (Ibid). Some writers included cities as their
parameters in revealing the economic and social relations in the world system and concluded
for instance that London was smaller than Beijing in 1825 (Ibid).
At this juncture, it must be noted that the debate is not whether the very idea of world system
exists or not, but much debate resorted to historical events and periodization demarcation in
the modern world system and specifying which region was the core and which is periphery
(ibid). However, the more interesting debate which can attract researchers is the issue of the
extent of mobility within the system and its availability to individual states to uplift
themselves to the next ladder of structure (Ibid). This concept is found to be interesting as it
reveals the prevalence of room for uplifting poor countries from the periphery. The problem is
that unlike modernization theory, it does not provide mechanisms of development but simply
explains how the world system exists (Ibid). Various scholars applied different approaches
and parameters in assessing the availability of mobility within the system for individual
countries.
5. ANALYSIS
5.1. SOCIAL ASPECTS
Major in terms of stability of remaining social services and the human resources a country is
capable of. This is a crucial feature for its political stability. The main indicators which are
used in this study have already been described in the introduced frame. The DFID claims that
“the Data collection in South Sudan has been hindered by ongoing conflict and limited
government capacity.” (DFID 2011:5).
Social issues and the performance in human development in a country are relevant since the
civil society is claimed to be more stable (for example; terms of violence, riots and poverty
reduction) when this is assured. Furthermore one of the key functions of governments is the
provision of public goods and services, which include mainly services of education, health
care and more. The data which is investigated is limited to the public services of education
and healthcare since these are the main two provisions and the humanitarian aspects are just
useful in terms of fragility evidence. We discussed whether food supply or access to drinking
water should be taken into consideration as well, but since our scope is determinate we
26
decided to focus on these two main areas. The other main indicators are kept in mind but not
depicted in detail. The consensus was that education is a major indicator of the human
resources of the state and therefore has crucial long-term impacts while healthcare is the
fundamental basis for living and hence major in terms of the current status of the civil society.
In terms of education the available data sets are largely provided by NGO`s, which are
involved in development aid in the education sector. It is major to note that there is a lot of
different data available, but this is mostly generated before the separation of the South from
the North. Nevertheless most of the data was separated in terms of North and South and
therefore still useful for this context. Besides that data is available from the government of
South Sudan.
The more precise data the UNESCO uses are based on the data of the South Sudanese
government, but it is acknowledged that the data are limited due to the fact that even basis
data like population is only based on estimations in addition other profiles like age and gender
percentages are not really reliable. This leads to uncertainties in terms of the generated data
about the educational system. This applies also for data about teacher and education quality.
Anyhow to get a basic insight in the educational situation in South Sudan we agreed to use the
findings of the UNESCO and the SSCCSE, but pay caution to these acknowledgements and
limitations.
The UNESCO describes the performance of the South Sudan temporary as poor and
insufficient. The major data to the educational status of this country are specifically depicted
in the global monitoring report from 2011. It is described that the South Sudan is one of the
lowest performing countries in the world, in terms of primary school enrolment (1.3 million
children not in school) and also in terms of enrolment in secondary education. According to
data from EMIS (Education Information Systems) 2009 the net enrolment rate was 48%,
which is compared to other countries on the lower performance. Furthermore the attendency
rates were really low.3 Anymore gender inequality is depicted as major and disadvantages for
girls are identified. For them are drop outs or not even a school entry at all very likely.
Despite that the performance is claimed to be low due to the crucial shortage of trained
teachers. The ratio for pupils per teacher is in average 100:1, since this is the average in some
regions it can go up to 200:1. The gender inequality is also detected in the percentage of
female teachers since these are only 12 % of the total. The facilities and equipment are
3
37% of children over six years has ever attended school (according to EMIS data)
27
described as more than inadequate and as seriously constricting the learning possibilities. In
addition the infrastructure and the access to schools are not adequate and cause supplemental
boundaries (UNESCO 2011).
The general situation of education in South Sudan is highly connected to governmental
approaches, policy introductions and stability of financing. The UNESCO examines that the
educational development is challenged by the weak and instable institutions of the new-build
government, since these are creating barriers for structural changes. The findings were
described in terms of a “(…) lack rudimentary computing equipment, let alone a properly
resourced and staffed public service and administrative system” (UNESCO 2011:5).
The current healthcare situation in the South Sudan is mainly assessed as precarious.
Generally the lack of trained stuff (doctors and nurses) is a major issue, since the South Sudan
has no institutions to train doctors and nurses itself. This is due to the fact that the faculties (of
medical education) of the universities were moved during the war period to the North. The
government is according to several sources highly challenged under these circumstances 4. The
current condition of the medical stuff is so low that a healthcare adequate provision is not
feasible. For the 8 million people living in South Sudan there are just around 120 medical
doctors and 100 registered nurses, this is in comparison to the population extremely low. Only
20% of the total population receive healthcare services their whole lifetime. Furthermore the
fact that round 83% of the population live in rural areas make an area-wide supply extremely
difficult. This amongst other things is claimed to be a major factor for the high infant
mortality rates. Also the poor percentage of vaccinated children5 causes high mortality rates.
The current healthcare system is based on the support of humanitarian agencies, which supply
currently over 80% of the total health care. The capacity of South Sudan government to take
over this whole provision seems, according to external assessments, very unlikely. The
general notion is that this dependence on humanitarian aid will last for a longer period of time
(Wakabi 2011). Especially the measurement and monitoring is not as fertile as it should be to
address the current need in the society (DFID 2011). Governments have the duty to generate
data to ensure an adequate and efficient supply6.
4
With South Sudan now only training a handful of medical assistants every year, the GOSS is sending many of
its people to medical schools in Kenya, South Africa, Uganda, UK, and the USA.(see Wakabi 2011)
5
UNICEF claims less than 10%
6
” Continuous monitoring (...)provides a comprehensive view of who, did what, when, and often even provides
insight into why a particular activity occurred. Capturing data in this manner and applying a rules based
28
The introduced data about the temporary educational system are focused on the system itself;
therefore the connection between the governmental influences on further developments is
predicted and examined. For the purpose of our paper the data need to be investigated in a
different context as it is not so relevant which barriers and challenges the education system is
currently facing, but more what this is revealing about the governmental status. First it is
major that the state is currently not capable to ensure primary education for all or at least most
of the children in this specific age. The government is clearly depending on external finances
and structural aid (e.g. teacher trainings etc.).
This dependency is crucial for the stability of the South Sudanese government, since the
sovereignty and the ability of states is conditioned through this. The educational foundation of
the population is in the case of South Sudan so heavily depending on external actors. This
implies that the basis and policy decisions are also shape through the expectations of these
actors in terms of education the main goal of the Southern government is declared to provide
at least the primary education from their own capacities 7 and consequently gain more
independence. The civil society primary and secondary education is limited through the weak
institutional capacities the intention to face this challenge seems to be one of the main key
elements many external agencies focus on. However the approaches are not completely
framed and specified yet8, therefore it will be a future need to investigate the outcomes of the
specific policy introduction and implementation to get a proper insight about advancements.
This will give also evidence about the increase of institutional fragility and weaknesses.
The development of human resources is, according to the USAID, one of the major steps to
generate a stable economic and political basis in South Sudan. These are long-term effects
were public services and human development influence the stability and legitimacy of the
future governmental status. These are predicted impacts on the civil society which will also
influence economic and political characteristics of the state. Nevertheless it is crucial to point
out that the legitimacy of the government is largely depending on the fulfillment of
humanitarian needs of its population. The poor situation and the lack of ability to solve this
issue, with its own capacities, tend to result in loss of citizen loyalty and loss of trust in the
approach to identifying risks and possible abuse, misuse and error in data can significantly improve audit
performance” (Meyers 2011)
7
The education sector strategy in South Sudan is a work in progress. The period since the 2005 peace agreement
has been one of intensive policy development, with the GoSS setting broad goals and priorities in the South
Sudan Development Plan (SSDP), the Ministry of Education settingbudget priorities, and an Education Sector
Strategic plan(ESSP) under preparation (See UNESCO 2011:12).
8
The Education Sector Strategic Plan (ESSP) for 2011-2015, which is still under preparation,is expected to
provide more detailed planning estimates and budget allocations (see UNESCO 2011:12).
29
new-build system9. This precariousness creates in the case of South Sudan an instable basis
for later processes and the further implementations of policies.
However these data give strong evidence that, apart from the future outlooks, that the current
situation is highly instable, since the institutional capacities and the political circumstances
are in terms of healthcare supply barely exist. The facts that most of this provision and also
the measurements is met through external organizations shows that South Sudan is not able to
fulfill some of the basic governmental duties and responsibilities.
Hence the data which are available are mostly gained for the purposes of the humanitarian
organizations, in addition to that most databases are relining on old data before the separation.
The main interests the data provide are the main issues about the future healthcare supply and
the poor performance of it so far. It is less important to examine the structural and functional
problems the current government is dealing with. Moreover the influences or the evidence this
is giving about the current political situation is mostly not taken into consideration.
The government is generally included in these analyzes but the main interest is focused on the
actual supply and the healthcare performance. Hence it is important to view these data in
terms of the stability of the South Sudanese government. The information, which is available,
gives evidence that, in terms of humanitarian services, the government is not capable to
provide a sufficient and widespread supply. Furthermore the institutions and their capacities
and policies are taken into consideration.
The humanitarian issues of the South Sudan are mostly investigated and assessed in terms of
human rights and the MDG´s. The external humanitarian organizations are focused on
strategies and policies, which enable a provision and at least to implement projects which are
providing the minimum of these services. Nevertheless these data are generally and especially
useful for investigations since they are available and even in the case of South Sudan, as the
external donors and organizations are depending on data to ensure profound interventions.
However the impact on the stability of the state in general is less examined. There are some
general assumptions and notions about social services and what causes a lack of them might
have, but the current situation in the South Sudan has already impacts on the governmental
situation. The data show that most of the population are not able to achieve the necessary
9
According to Spiegel Online especially the returnees are disappointed and already starting to doubt in the
abilities of the new build government to solve their most urgent problems like food supply and healthcare. (see
Knaup 2011)
30
support, this is in terms of fragility one of the key factors for instability and it effects the
legitimacy of the government towards the civil society. Furthermore South Sudan is strongly
depending on external aid. The external support is therefor also extending towards structures
and functions of the institutional system. This is mainly claimed to be for purposes of the
increase of self-determination of the South Sudanese government and to help the civil society.
However the data give evidence that the current institutional system is facing major structural
and capacity problems, which need to be addressed. The institutional settings are obviously
poor at the moment, but general policy introductions before and after the referendum show the
acknowledgement of the government for the importance of this issue. The link between selfdetermination and the provision of fundamental public services is here relevant. Furthermore
a later assessment of the implementation of the policies will give more evidence about the
increase of institutional and governmental stability in the South Sudan. This will only be
possible over a longer time period and is currently not feasible.
5.2 ECONOMICAL PART
The economy of the Sudan (pre referendum) used to be based on the exportation of
agricultural products. These included mainly cotton, sesame, gum and livestock products,
during this time a small contribution through mining and manufacturing existed (mainly gold,
sugar). With the detection of the natural oil resources in 2000 10 the Sudanese economy
changed dramatically in the sense that non-oil exports became increasingly less important
(Ahmed 2010: 3).
Today the oil revenue is, and used to be, the main source of income for Sudan`s government
(Ahmed 2010: 1). Since the discovery the dependency on oil resources increased strongly: In
2000 Oil exports accounted over 70% of all Sudanese exports, this increased till 2008 up to
95% (Ahmed 2010: 3). This affected the external markets of the Sudan. The market relations
shifted from Europe, the US and the Middle East towards Asian countries (Ahmed 2010: 4).
The Sudanese government managed to assure stable partnerships and thereby increased the
foreign direct investment (FDI). The FDI grew during the time from 2000 till 2005 more than
80% annual average. The FDI was mostly from China, Malaysia and India and largely
directed towards the oil industry (Ahmed 2010: 7). According to the CIA-world fact book the
10
Data vary from 1999-2000
31
oil production in 2010 used to be 514,300 bbl/day11 and it exported 383,900 bbl/day (200912)
the estimated proved oil reserves are 5 billion bbl (2011).
According to the remarks of Medani M. Ahmed, the financial crisis influenced the economical
situation in Sudan negatively in patterns of trade, foreign direct investment and remittances
etc. The global financial crisis and the fuel and food crisis led to tensions and a suffering of
Sudan`s economy, the expected referendum and the associated political uncertainties
intensified the situation (IMF 2011/b: 17). These circumstances led to a decrease in foreign
capital inflows. This shortage used to be taken into consideration when the issue of
independence was addressed (Ahmed 2010: V). “Political uncertainties ahead of the January
2011 South Sudan referendum on self-determination have been weighing heavily on the
Sudanese economy, adding to the adverse effects of the global crisis in 2009”(IMF 2011/b: 3).
To understand the current economic situation of the South Sudan the previous conditions
(before the referendum) have to be briefly described.
According to the CIA the GDP composition in Sudan (2009) used to be agriculture 44.6 %,
industry 45.3 and services 10.213. Especially the low percentage of services is claimed to be
caused by the high informal rate in this sector. The previous trends of the GDP rate varied
over the last years. The fluctuations of Sudan's real GDP increased in 2010 to 5.1% from
4.2% but this is distinctively beneath the more than 10% growth rate which Sudan
experienced previous to the financial crisis between 2006 and 2007 14 . In 2010 the GDP
growth rate of the Sudan was under the first 33% in comparison of the world countries.
However the in terms of the GDP per capita (PPP) the CIA illustrates that Sudan was under
the lowest 25%15.
The direct investment rate in 2010 was according to the CIA 21.2% of the GDP, the FDI was
mostly from Asian countries. The taxes and other revenues made in the same year 16.5% of
the GDP16. Furthermore the public debt used to be more than 90% in 2010 17 which decreased
11
Data vary between 514,300 bbl/day (CIA 2011) and 470 bbl/day (EIA 2011)
12
There were no reliable data from 2010 available; hence the data from 2009 are used to show the oil exports.
Agriculture includes farming, fishing, and forestry. Industry includes mining, manufacturing, energy
production, and construction. Services cover government activities, communications, transportation, finance, and
all other private economic activities that do not produce material (CIA 2011)
14
GDP real growth rate 6% (2009 est.)6.8% (2008 est.) (CIA 2011)
15
GDP per capita (PPP) $2,300 (2010 est.) world comparison rank:184 and very low increase since
2008 (CIA 2011)
16
The ranking implies that Sudan is under the lowest 20% in the world (CIA 2011).
13
17
South Sudan is ranked as 14 from 133 estimated states in the world in terms of public debt. (CIA 2011)
32
from 105.2% during 2009. The main export partners of Sudan were China (68.3%), Japan
(12.6%) and India (5.8%) 18 . The main import relations were between Sudan and China
(21.7%), Egypt (8%), Saudi Arabia (7.7%), and more19.
The data about the South Sudan are not available yet, but some economic features and
characteristics are depicted and described. First of all the majority of the population in the
South is dependent on subsistence agriculture to ensure their livelihood. Furthermore the
infrastructure in this region is quite deficient, it is especially lacking paved roads (only 60km),
electricity (provided mainly through diesel generators) and running water. Despite that the
current situation is characterized by an intense dependency on the Sudan20. This is due to the
oil resources, where South Sudan is producing almost 75% of the former total oil production
of the Sudan. Furthermore the pipelines which are indispensable for the exportation belong to
the North. Besides that
The estimations about the poverty rate in 2010 21 amounts to 50.6% of the population of
Southern Sudan to be below this. There is claimed to be a large discrepancy between the
urban and rural areas (OECD 2010: 21)22.
The South Sudan is geographically an area which provides ideal conditions for agriculture and
livestock breeding. Besides that the Nile region offers the possibilities to generate
hydroelectricity.
The financial situation of the South Sudan in terms of external debt is very positive since the
North Sudan took over these from the whole Sudan23. Furthermore the South part of Sudan
received about $4 billion of external aid24, but the North averted the transfer of goods and
financial aid aimed towards the South. The GDP of the new-build state has so far been
estimated but this is mainly based on future economic assumptions since there are no data
from previous years available and the separation from the North in addition to the continuous
18
The export commodities were mainly: oil and petroleum products; cotton, sesame, livestock, groundnuts, gum
arabic, sugar (CIA 2011)
19
The import commodities were mainly: foodstuffs, manufactured goods, refinery and transport equipment,
medicines and chemicals, textiles, wheat (CIA 2011)
20
The economy of South Sudan undoubtedly will remain linked to Sudan for some time given the
long lead time and great expense required to build another pipeline (CIA 2011)
21
calculated at USD30.80 (72.9 SDG) per month (Bennett et al. 2010: 21)
22
Only one in four urban dwellers is poor, whereas it is almost twice that
number in rural areas. (Bennett et al. 2010: 21)
„North Sudan has proposed to undertake the country’s entire external debt in exchange for inclusion in an
international program providing insolvent countries with debt relief (…)“ (Sudan Tribune 2011/a)
24
Mainly from UK, US, Norway, and Netherlands (CIA 2011)
23
33
interdependence between North and South. The target for economic growth in 2011 was
declared to be 6% and 7.2% in 2012. (CIA 2011).
The fiscal issues which the South Sudan is dealing with are currently to stabilize the own
currency, which was introduced after the independency (18th July 2011). The first step was to
stop the circulation of the Sudanese pound (1st of September 2011) 25 . The exchange rate
towards the old currency was one-to one and the Bank of South Sudan announced a future
pegging of their pound to the US Dollar. “The South Sudan Central Bureau of Statistics
reported an inflation rate in South Sudan of 61.5 per cent” 26(UNSC 2011: 3).
5.2.1 PREDICTIONS
To get a deeper impression about the economic stability issue it is necessary to include in this
chapter the predictions about future challenges and activities external and internal officials
made. Since the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) was signed in 2005 the separation
from North and South became a material issue, as the CPA entails the provision for a
referendum which would either confirm Sudan`s unity or declare the independence of the
South (IMF 2011/a: 4). Therefore the attention of external players, especially the ones which
were actively involved in Sudan was drawn to this possibility. Hence most of the activities
and interventions which were long-term oriented had to take this possibility into consideration.
The basic assumptions for the case of separation were similar in their appraisals of severity
and complexity of the issue. It was widely agreed that in case of independence the South
Sudan would have to face major challenges and difficulties. These were mainly examined in
terms of political, economical and social stabilization.
The main challenges, the CIA forecasted, for South Sudan were depicted in terms of
macroeconomic stability, poverty, tax issues and improvements in the fiscal management.
Furthermore was claimed to be major that sustainable growth is ensured and coverage of a
secure business environment is guaranteed (CIA). The IMF declared that in case of a vote for
independence, the debate about several key issues would have to continue. These includes due
to the IMF: wealth distribution, currency issues, border aspects, nationality aspects and debt
patterns. The assumption focused mainly on the six month interim time period till the full
“the parties to the Comprehensive Peace Agreement had planned to use [the Sundanese pound] for a
transitional period of six months, extendable to nine months.” (UN 2011/a: 3)
25
26
The areas of South Sudan bordering the North have been negatively affected by commodity shortages,
contributing to inflation (UN 2011/a: 3)
34
independence (IMF 2011/a: 4). In terms of economic stability especially three key issues were
detected from the IMF for the economic patterns in Sudan: The oil revenue sharing, the
current external debt arrangements and currency agreements (IMF 2011/a).
Furthermore it was widely expected that in case of a separation, the South Sudan would need
“substantial international assistance” given the fact that it was seen as unlikely that the South
would be able to promote the necessary solutions by itself (IMF 2011/a: 10).
In addition, the tense situation between North and South was usually claimed as complex and
precarious as it was largely believed that the declaration of independence might cause new
(armed) conflicts. Political and economical pressures from the North towards the South were
mainly predicted27.
However the strong dependence of the Sudanese economy on oil is still one of the major
economic issues. Therefore the distribution between both parts has always been a major issue
and an origin for many conflicts. Since the South used to be disadvantaged in terms of this
distribution, the CPA introduced binding agreement for the share of this revenue 28 (van der
Heiden page 1). The oil revenue sharing between North and South was according to the CPA
ascertained to be equally divided between both areas. However this agreement expired on the
day of the referendum (CPA Page 54). However in the economic history of the South Sudan
(when it was still part of the Sudan) is mainly shaped through the CPA and “significant
progress has been achieved (…) in implementation of CPA since 2005” (AEC 2007: i).
The main issue for the North today is that it could lose more than 75% of its oil revenues,
which it is mainly depending on. Since the government revenue is, more than a half,
consisting of the oil revenue, domestic and external imbalances and conflicts were assumed to
be possible results of this scenario. Therefore the IMF made clear that a new agreement about
the oil would be inevitable, this would include an agreement over transit fees the South would
have to pay for the use of the north oil-pipelines. Furthermore a new assignment about the
revenue share would need to be established. In addition the necessity for further structural
alignments has been pointed out, since the high dependency on this raw material needs on the
one hand to be decreased and on the other hand to be stabilized. This “adjustment could have
significant implications for growth and macroeconomic stability” (IMF 2011/).
According to the New Country Profile South Sudan from the FfP (Found for Peace) “Disputes with the
Republic of Sudan over oil revenues could prove combustible, with implications for development and security in
South Sudan.” (The Fund for Peace 2011: 1)
28
E. Ahmed 2006
27
35
In short the predicted challenges for the South Sudan were mainly focused on economic
growth, clarification of the raw material issue and long-term changes in the industrial
composition. Changes in the fiscal policy and in the horizontal distribution in the population
are also seen as necessary conditions for a stable economical basis.
First of all the data about the economic situation of the South Sudan are very limited due to
the fact that these are usually measured over the period of a year. To overcome this issue as
much as possible, in most of the assessments the data from former Sudan were used.
Fortunately a lot of data were already separated since the time of the CPA (2005). A further
limitation of the economical and fiscal data is that the changes in policies, activities and
tensions are temporary very rapid and the data is not always contemporary available. In
addition the most current data are usually data which are about inputs (like strategies, policies,
intentions and development proposals) and to a lesser extent outcome oriented (includes
implementation and following activities). Furthermore a lot of the economic data are
generated through expert opinions and appraisals.
Nevertheless the available data give evidence about the macroeconomic stability and the
governmental challenges and deficits related to this. Primary the data about the GDP give
evidence that the economic growth is not very low29 what is claimed to be an indicator for a
basis for economic stability, but the GDP per capita suggest a rather poor performance and
gives therefor evidence that the South Sudan is struggling in terms of economic stability.
Besides that the findings show that through the intense dependency from the South towards
the North caused by the oil production and export the self-determination in economical issues
is quite limited. Besides that this dependency causes also crucial security threads which also
destabilize the economical and political environment of the South Sudan. Furthermore the
public management of the natural resources is under these conditions not really possible and
would request very strong institutional stetting to carry this out into execution. These current
tensions also affect the politics in patterns of finances and create therefore uncertainties in
terms of finances for incidence the governmental revenue. Besides this the contemporary
fiscal changes imply and the former mentioned instabilities create uncertainties which have
negative effects on the FDI and the possibilities to support other industries, or agriculture.
This picture of a weak and unregulated economic basis shows besides the future challenges
29
The former Sudan used tob e in terms of GDP growth among the first 33% of the world (CIA 2011)
36
also the necessity for the government to draw its attention also to regulations and to carry
them out into execution to build institutional capacities.
In addition the current situation of the population in terms of poverty and economical
participation seems according to the data very poor. This implies not only challenges in terms
of the human development but also generates a unstable environment for any political activity
and for the government itself. Since these circumstances can led to a loss of legitimacy due to
the reason that the civil society expects participation in terms of distribution of the economic
profits and changes in to change the current dependence on the North Sudan. Especially since
the overwhelming support for the separation from South and North it is assumable that the
majority of the population is highly critical about the temporary interdependence. This would
also decrease the legitimacy of the government and reduce its possibilities to influence the
civil society through rules and regulations.
The available information about South Sudan`s economy also imply that there is development
in strategies and policies which are based on stabilizing the macroeconomic performance.
However in addition to these features, the poor performance in terms of infrastructure, which
are in the information illustrated gives evidence that the government is in charge to better this
conditions contemporary. Such a lack of infrastructure affects first of all the industries in a
country since electricity and paved roads are inevitable for production and trade. This has a
major impact on the financial situation of the government since the taxes are necessary part of
the governmental revenue. Furthermore this lack of infrastructure results obviously in
constraints for the governmental performance in terms of capacities and enforcements of rules
regulations and security.
To sum it up the data to the economic situation in South Sudan give strong evidence that the
lacks in the economic environment challenge the political situation rigorous. Moreover the
impacts on the financial conditions of the current government are crucial. In addition the
precarious circumstances in terms of the natural resources, which are evident in the viewed
data, indicate that the gain of economic stability would request a lot of governmental
capacities in forms of public management and external negotiations. The fundamental inputs
are given in forms of rules laws and policies. However the outcome will have to be assessed
after a longer period of time.
5.3 GOVERNANCE ASPECTS
37
5.3.1 STATE HOOD
The concept of statehood is still debatable and clear and exhaustive guidelines as such have
not yet developed (Gioregetti 2010: 54-62). The concepts and criteria incorporated under
Montevideo Convention and prevailed international customary law are not clear enough to
curtail the ambiguity in practical terms (Ibid). According to same convention, in principle,
statehood is acquired if the requirements of permanent population, a defined territory, and
effective government and last but not least the capabilities of entering into international
relations are all fulfilled (Ibid). To begin with, all the mention requirements for statehood set
under the convention are vague and open into interpretation. Moreover, some of the
requirements are generally difficult to apply them in strict sense. The population requirement
does not clarify in detail what it means permanent and what number can be the minimal
population to establish statehood. Can a tiny island with a small population of 2000 claim for
statehood status? Under this circumstances, the South Sudanese Population size which is 8.26
million (World Bank)30 qualifies the permanent population requirement may not be open to
controversy. Since the Second World War, a number of countries including the newest state
South Sudan, that joined statehood status doubled four times (Coggins 2006: 16).
Historically, statehood arose from securing independence from old colonial rule, or struggle
from self-determination and secession from the homeland, or disintegration of federation or
confederation or annexed entity or government in the case of East Europe and former Soviet
Union (Coggins: 4-19). Given the fact that most of the entities that claim statehood may
involve territorial dispute, it is needless to say that the requirement to confirm a defined
territory is a fiasco (Ibid).South Sudan achieved seceded after four decades of war but still it
has border dispute with south Sudan particularly the Abiye region (The U.S.A Congressional
Research Service) and in strict sense the requirement of a defined territory is no yet
completely fulfilled. The state of Israel for instance has acquired Statehood and United Nation
membership though the criterion of defined territory has not yet fulfilled (Yamali 2011: 4).
The same scenario exists in the requirements of effective government and capability if
interning into international relation which are not in fact as such separate but interrelated
concepts. Practically, most of former colonies achieved their independence in the absence of a
well-functioning government that can rule the country and enter international relations
(Giorgetti 2010: 59). Hence, it can be safely asserted that the criteria declared under the
Montevideo convention lack conceptual clarity and practicality. By the same token the
30
World Bank, http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTSUDAN/Resources/Key-Indicators-SS.pdf
38
considering seriously effective government requirement for granting statehood status to South
Sudan is redundant.
Moreover, it must be underlined that other than the four criteria of the Montevideo
convention, the contemporary international customary law consists of the concept of
recognition and democratization as casual elements of statehood (Ibid). Unlike the
Montevideo convention which is declaratory, the doctrine of recognition falls under the
debate of two different theories, namely declaratory and constitutive theories (Ibid). Pursuant
to declaratory theory, recognition is not the necessary element but affirms the state that fulfils
the Montevideo convention (Kohen 2010: 97-112). Whereas the constitutive theory states that
no statehood can be legally created until it secures recognition (Ibid).
In real international relation recognition is still open to debate with unavailability of clear
terms in what involves recognition and its consequence. As many scholars suggest, the
concept of statehood and granting recognition is highly politicised and necessitates the
blessing of powerful states (Ibid). This actually revealed in the South Sudan case. Politically,
all the recognition process of south Sudan it is backed the western powerful sates, particularly
the government of U.S.A. and its close allies (U.S.A Congressional Research service &
interview of the British special representative in Sudan before the referendum)31
The term governance can be defined in various ways depending on the contextual purpose.
Here, we apply the term in relation to statehood including the political system, or government
or phenomena or public administration. We exerted tremendous effort to find a
comprehensive definition of governance, but hard to find one as there the term can be used for
various purposes all kind regulation for a sector or activity for instance technology
governance, environmental governance and so on. If we the purpose of using the term is allied
with state hood and government and lesser to that public administration, then the relevant
term to consider will be government. However it should be underlined that the term political
phenomena by itself do not squarely fit the term government (Bentley1995: 259).
The preceding definition of Black’s law dictionary goes in line with objective of this section
our project that has resorted to assess the governance in South Sudan. The definition applies
government from the top level of state by elaborating that it is a set of structured principles. It
is in accordance of those principles that the people exercise their sovereign power. That
sovereign power can organized in different form of political system and represent the nation
31
The U.S.A Congressional Research Service, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R41900.pdf
39
state legal personality. The above definition also explains that government refers to the
political organs of a given country.
Having said some and introduced the concept governance or government, now, it will
appropriate to deal the governance and government in South Sudan. Practically this refers to
the current transitional constitution of South Sudan. Though the constitution the centre in
pointing out the supreme principles in which sovereign power of the people expresses, we will
go beyond that revealing those principles. Hence we exert our effort to unwarp the leadership
and the regime in the current government of south Sudan and how the institutions and organs
of the government are being built.
Thus the coming chapter outlined in such a way that provide first the general picture of the
political environment created by the current leadership, excluded groups and then
personalities or political groups that represents that leadership. In latter part, we will discuss
directly by assessing the transitional constitution of south Sudan and thereby disclose how
legitimacy, institution and separation of power are set up.
5.3.2 LEADERSHIP
SPLM has continued to be the dominant actor the CPA implementation period as well as after
the referendum in South Sudan (The International Crises Group 2011). To begin with, it is the
main rebel group that signed the CPA with the Khartoum regime (Ahmed, E. 2010: 118-125).
Most of the other rebel groups negotiated separately and signed a bilateral agreement (Ibid).
Thus, there was no as such a round table negotiation that comprises all the main rebel groups
in one hand and the government of South Sudan on the other hand.
Actually, as there are many rebel groups and most of these groups have multiple factions
(Ibid), it may not be feasible to seat for negotiations with the government of Sudan. There
have been also a fierce relation and political competition between SPLM and some other rebel
groups (Ibid). Despite the reflection unanimity against the government of Sudan, most of the
gruella movements have been tribal and regional based (Ibid).
The April election in 2010 for legislative assembly of South Sudan interim government was
tangible civilian experience for SPLM and its opposing political groups in the South (The
International Crises Group 2011). 32 The oppositions, complained that there were election
32
Africa Report No 172, April 2011, International Crises Group,
http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/africa/horn- of-africa/sudan/172%20%20Politics%20and%20Transition%20in%20the%20New%20South%20Sudan.pdf
40
irregularities caused by threaten and unfair resource use from SPLM (Ibid). Election
observers also confirmed the intimidation from SPLM and the overall irregularities of the
election (Ibid). The oppositions were weak and abled to tale only 7 Percent of the legislative
assembly (Ibid).
The current political environment was the continuity of the CPA period and still it exists a
limited playing filed for opposition political parties in South Sudan after the referendum
(Ibid). The civil society and opposition parties are playing a minimal role in the current
government leadership (Ibid).There exist some attempts to establish a broad government by
comprising some few opposition groups and Diasporas. However, at the present, when we see
the overall leadership in the current government structure, the presidents and the vice
president office are taken by SPLM (Ibid). Moreover, 88 per cent of the ministerial positions
and 94 per cent of the legislative assembly including the speaker of the house are occupied by
commands of SPLM loyal to the army (Ibid). When we come to the leadership of current
South Sudan government, under most of the circumstances, it is hard to make a clear
demarcation between the governments of South Sudan and the SPLM (Ibid).
To examine the leadership ability of SPLM not as rebel group, but as a political group of a
civilian government is here crucial. The SPLM was successful as gruella fighter in those
challenging years of the long civil war. The question is to what extent it is ready to reform
itself as a civilian political party.
Most of the generals are appointed as ministers in the current government (Ibid).As
organizational reform has been conducted by a committee, after independence of South
Sudan, SPLM seems to be on the right track (Ibid). The reform initiatives have targeted to
revise the parties manifesto, constitution and strategic plan (Ibid). Despite such promising
measures, there is a culture of a centralized decision making process within the party structure
which must be looked into (Ibid).
To sum up, the current leadership in southern Sudan is mainly dominated by SPLM, in
particular by its army leadership. Hence, serious commitment is expected from SPLM to
transform itself from military group to civilian party. The playing field must be widened to
accommodate opposition political groups and establish a broad government.
5.3.2.1 EXCLUDED GROUPS
41
The opposition parties and political figures that are not allied with SPLM are excluded from
the political sphere. The oppositions have tried hard to negotiate power sharing with SPLM
but that has remained a difficult task for them (The International Crises Group 2011)33.
Accordingly, the legislative assembly of the CPA interim period of South Sudan has
continued to act as unicameral parliament under the present government structure (Ibid). The
legal justification used for such strategy is the provision in the constitution of South Sudan
autonomous government during the interim period (Ibid). SPLM dominated legislative
assembly (Ibid) and now it is the same organ acting as the parliament of the new state.
The opposition claim that the CPA period is over and so the new transitional government
should be negotiated on (Ibid). But the oppositions, as they are weak and fragmented have
remained with minimal bargaining power (Ibid). The only option they resorted to is that of
threatening SPLM by boycotting any form of political participation and future election (Ibid).
But boycotting can be useful strategy provide that they have legitimacy and mass support
from the constituencies and the international community. But that is not the reality, at least for
now (Ibid).
The point of dispute has been the process of promulgating the transitional constitution. The
present president just enacted a decree for the establishment of the technical committee for
drafting (Ibid). The oppositions refused it claiming that they have prior agreement to act
together regarding the constitution (Ibid). SPLM did not accept that arguing that it is not the
permanent constitution (Ibid).
Evaluation of extent of exclusion in a govern structure and the political system is a pivotal
indicator in assessing governance and fragility. Hence, the present government in south
Sudan, must pay attention and exert effort to open its doors for opposition groups who have
not yet done any meaningful participation.
5.3.3 DECENTRALIZATION AND SEPARATION OF POWER
33
Africa Report No 172, April 2011, International Crises Group,
http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/africa/horn%20Politics%20and%20Transition%20in%20the%20New%20South%20Sudan.pdf
42
of-africa/sudan/172%20-
This section is devoted to explain the current situation of Sudan in its endeavours and
commitment to establish governmental and political structures by promulgating a constitution
and thereby put in place the relevant institutions.
One of the very steps in taken by the present government of South Sudan is the promulgation
of a constitution. A presidential decree enacted to promulgate a constitution and a committee
for drafting the transitional constitution was established accordingly (The International Crises
Group 2011)34. The first draft version was already on the table in April, 2011(Ibid).
As it can be inferred from the preamble of the same constitution, it is stated that South Sudan
declared it will to be abide by the supreme law that is to say the constitution to:
“ (…)lay the foundation for a united, peaceful and prosperous
society based on justice, equality, respect for human rights and
the rule of law” (Sudan Tribune 2011/a).
It must be noted that the mere existence of constitution is not the guarantee for perpetuity of
peace. The SPLM and the government of Sudan shared power by enacting an interim
constitution for South Sudan and appointing their respective members to the bicameral
parliament in Khartoum. Later, after five years, a general election for the office of presidency
and the legislative assembly was held concurrently in 2010 and SPLM secured 99 seats. These
SPLM former members of the national assembly have continued to be the legislative
assembly of the new Sothern Sudan state.
It has to be beared in mind that the Constitution is not permanent type but a transitional with
the intention to serve peculiar objectives and certain period of time. Hence, referendum by the
public on certain parts of the constitution may not be that much pivotal in the given situation
of the new state. Still, it is not a deniable fact that the people had in direct say participation, as
the final approval was mad by their representatives in legislative assembly. In addition to that
the draft was available to the public for comment and various deliberations and thereby to
consider some extra inputs. Even if it is not the purpose of this paper to go deep and assess
whether the public participation was democratic and transparent, it is safe to indicate that
there was public involvement in the constitution drafting process. On the other hand, it must
34
Africa Report No 172, April 2011, International Crises Group,
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43
of-africa/sudan/172%20-
be also underlined that oppositions parties complained that SPLM did not allow effective
involvement of oppositions in the drafting process (Ibid)
The constitution allows a decentralized governance system from central level to state and
local level so as to reach the public. In the coming sub section the project is devoted to point
out how the State of South Sudan has embarked on paving the way for decentralized modern
governance.
5.3.3.1 DECENTRALIZED FORM OF GOVERNANCE IN SOUTH SUDAN
A decentralized governance system provides the appropriate channel of democratic
administration in rendering public goods and services to citizens. It is problematic in
formulating a distinct and clear definition to decentralization as it has passed through changes
of conceptualization (Chemma 2007: 1) However, they are able to accord on revealing some
concise conceptualization of decentralization. Decentralization was defined as “the transfer of
power or authority from central government to a lower level administration through
delegation, de-concentration or devolution” (Ibid).
In the South Sudan case, the transitional constitution recognizes decentralized system of
governance and devolution of powers. In addition to that, it declares how inter-governmental
linkages shall be designed between the central government and the regional government,
which are by name the national government and the state government respectively (The draft
constitution from the portal of the Sudan tribune)35. It is the general belief that the normal
government administration machinery, particularly in weak and new states may be unenviable
in delivering all public goods, services efficiently (Rondinelli 2007: 21-24). Hence, it would
make it inevitable to allow the establishment of independent and private institution as well as
civil societies side by side. The transitional constitution under part nine has comprised the
same concept in laying down the legal frame work and ascertaining their rights and duties on
how such institutions can be developed (Ibid).
The inclusion of decentralization in the constitution is one big achievement, but on the
ground, the states and regions are still weak practically, the budget and the decision making
power remained in the hands of the central SPLM leadership (The International Crises Group
2011).36
35
http://www.sudantribune.com/IMG/pdf/The_Draft_Transitional_Constitution_of_the_ROSS2-2.pdf
Africa Report No 172, April 2011, International Crises Group,
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36
44
The basic governance system and the legal frame work in relation to decentralization in
general and under the transitional constitution of South Sudan in particular.
5.3.3.2 SEPARATION OF POWERS
For the evaluation of stability in general and good governance in a state in particular,
separation of power has remained a central element (Mata 2009: 9, 15). The concept of
separation of powers in a government system is most often linked to presidential form of
government (Lutz 2006: 109). As it can be inferred the transitional constitution South Sudan
has adopted this system.
Under Black’s law dictionary separation of powers is defined as the division of governmental
authority into three branches of government namely, the legislative, executive and the judicial
where each entrusted with specified duties on which neither of the other branches can
encroach and consequently the constitutional doctrine of checks and balance by which people
are protected against tyranny. Therefore mere purpose of separation of power is not to
curtailing unilateral decision making process by single body in its inherent power but to
ensure check and balances (Barnett 2007: 44-47).The federal arrangement of a government
and political system inherently accompanied some form of separation of power within state
structures.
In the south Sudan case, at least constitutionally, decentralization has been given much
attention and that can be considered as one form of separation of power. However the reality
on the ground and the actual implementation has also a paramount importance in evaluating
the trend of separation of power in South Sudan. In South Sudan, the adoption of a
decentralized form of government structure can be taken as a remarkable step in having one
form of separation of powers. However, resources are concentrated on the central form of the
government. Actual decision is being done from Juba (The International Crises Group
2011).37
The granting of power to various committees for specific tasks like the constitutional drafting
committee in South Sudan can be mentioned as one form of separation of power. The problem
is the selection process of members of the committee. Most of them are serving in various
high positions of ministerial offices (Ibid)
Africa Report No 172, April 2011, International Crises Group
http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/africa/horn- of-africa/sudan/172%20%20Politics%20and%20Transition%20in%20the%20New%20South%20Sudan.pdf
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45
5.4 EXTERNAL ACTORS
5.4.1 INTERVENTION
5.4.1.1 UNMISS
The United Nation Mission in the Republic of South Sudan (UNMISS) started in July 2011. It
is the replacement of the former UNMIS, which was there to control the keep of the CPA and
to protect the civil society (Grawert 2011: 372). The North was against the elongation of the
UNMIS mandate that is why the UNMISS aroused. Another reason for the new mission was
the call from the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLM) to help them at the border area
between the (North) Sudan and the South, especially at the north border state South Kordofan.
The minister of higher education in the government of South Sudan said:
“There is a need for foreign military intervention because nothing will stop the
ongoing fighting in the Nuba Mountains from resuming anytime soon since the
government of Sudan as officially announced allowing its forces to drive out
SPLA forces from the area" (Sudantribune 2011/a).
Since the separation the Security Council decided that it is necessary to have a mission there
which can “consolidate peace and security and [to] help establish conditions for the
development” (UN). The mission consists of 7000 soldiers and 900 international policemen.
Also included are Human Rights Experts. They came into the country one day before the
Independence. Like the former UNMIS should this mission arrange peace and help the South
Sudan during their political and economic development process. (Focus Online 2011)
The main task is to help the government to keep the peace and to save the state-building
process and the economic development. (Department for Foreign Affairs 2011)
According to the mandate the major points are:
“- Support for peace consolidation and thereby fostering longer-term statebuilding
and economic development
-Support the Government of the Republic of South Sudan in exercising its
responsibilities for conflict prevention, mitigation, and resolution and protect
civilians
-Support the Government of the Republic of South Sudan in developing its
capacity to provide security, to establish rule of law, and to strengthen the security
and justice sectors “(UN 2011/b).
The military deployment of the mission is provided from 27 countries. In August 2011 the
Government of South Sudan and UNMISS signed an agreement which guarantied the
46
Mission’s freedom of movement in the South. Since that time there have been six denials of
the freedom, four of them by members of the SPLA. (UN 2011/a: 7)
5.4.1.1.1Infrastructure
The UNMISS is working together with a Japanese company of engineers. This company
should help to build the infrastructure at the South. (Johnson 2011:5) The infrastructure is
very important and in 2005 there was just five kilometers of tarmac road in the South and the
rural areas, where most of the people live in the South, are not serviced by any kind of
infrastructure or other basic needs. (Johnson 2011:6)
5.4.2 SECURITY ASPECT
The information about the current status and the achievements are mainly from a press
conference of Hilde Johnson, Special Representative of the secretary- general and the head of
the UNMISS.
The main focus will lie on the security achievements and the challenges within this sector.
One of the major achievements of the UNMISS is the reintegration of rebel militia which
have decided to return to the government. Three of the important rebel groups have been
reintegrated. (Johnson 2011:2)
The UNMISS helped the government to move the integrated forces. UNMISS also supported
the South Sudan Disarmament, Demobilization and Reintegration Commission and the United
Nations Children’s Fund to bring child soldiers who has been a part of some rebel groups
back to their families. This integration process also includes the transformation of the SPLA,
the police and the security institutions. (UN 2011/a: 5, 8)
Another point which cannot really be mentioned as a success, but is still important is the
cooperation between the UNMISS and the government or the church to prevent attacks that
would kill hundreds of civilians. The collaboration with the church, where the church also is
the leader, tries to bring the different communities together and prevent attacks. (Johnson
2011:3)
47
UNMISS tried to help with daily air patrols and a deterrent military presence in the Jonglai
State conflict area. They also intensified their air reconnaissance and sent integrated
assessment missions following the violence. (UN 2011/a: 6)
The UNMISS also helps the government with their disarmament processes. These processes
are taking place in three different cities in the South (Lakes State, Unity State, Warrap). The
process at Lake State was a partly voluntary disarmament process with the help of traditional
leaders and chiefs. The disarmament in Juba is not possible, according to Johnson, because
the weapons are used for criminal activities and not for conflicts between the different groups.
Therefore the police presence should get strengthen there. (Johnson 2011:4)
5.4.1.2 USAID
The U.S. Agency for International Development has different programs in several fields to
support the stability of the new state South Sudan: peace and security, governing justly and
democratically, investing in people, economic growth, and Humanitarian assistance (USAID
2011).
In August 2011 USAID supported an opening of a new peace centre in Northern Bahr el
Ghazal state. With this centre they will try to solve the ethnical conflicts there between the
Dinka of Northern Bahr el Gharzal and other ethnical groups from South Kordofan and South
Darfur. (USAID 2011/b: 4)
They begun “implementing conflict mitigation and stabilization activities... [there] to reduce
conflict in the border areas of Northern Bahr al Gharzal” (USAID 2011/b: 4).
The mission tries to break conflicts down and bring long-term stability into the conflict areas.
The averages they are using to reach these goals are for example: to higher the capacity of
local authorities and also to aid productive economic activities. They are also using
technology to try to prevent conflicts with establishing a high frequency radio network. The
communication network is not good and can just be used in bigger towns; so there is no
chance to share important information quickly. Therefore the radio is a good communication
system to at least reach also other regions. (USAID 2011/b: 5)
USAID is also working in the fields of health care and tourism opportunities. And to finance
the South Sudan they developed a microfinance program called Finance Sudan Limited
(FSL). This program started already in 2006. (USAID 2011/b: 7-10)
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“The mission of FSL is to contribute to the economic rebuilding and stabilization of the
country by providing quality financial services to low-income entrepreneurs and individuals
through a profitable, nationwide microfinance institution” (USAID 2011/b: 10).
5.4.1.3 UNDP
UNDP (United Nations Development Programme) started in January 2011. The focus of this
mission is on helping the Government to build up state institutions. With a budget of US $170
million it is the largest program in the South Sudan. Their three main approaches are:
Democratic Governance, Crisis Prevention and Recovery, Poverty Reduction and the
Millennium Development Goals. In the governance sector 120 UN Volunteers within the 10
states governments to assists with planning and budgeting and other public finance
management. They also helped the South to prepare the referendum. And are still fighting for
the for example women’s rights in the South Sudan. (UNDP 2011: 1, 2)
5.4.1.4 DG ECHO
The intervention of the DG Echo (European Commission Directorate- General for
Humanitarian Aid and Civil Protection) is not just in the South Sudan, also in the North
(Darfur) and the Transitional Areas. The budget for these interventions is now EUR
140.000.000 because they plan to intensify the interventions under the present Humanitarian
Implementation Plan. The reasons for this elevation are the still ongoing conflicts in South
Kordofan and the Blue Nile State and the rising number of refugees in Ethiopia. (DG Echo
2011: 1,2)
They mention four sectors of intervention in their report. (1) “Funding of coordination and
common services” (DG Echo 2011:7). This service includes functions like “coordination
mechanisms, air transport (....) security assessments and training as well as reinforcement of
security set up” (DG Echo 2011: 7). (2) “Emergency Preparedness and Response (EP&R)”
(ibid). This means that communities will get support for their pestilence control. The next one
(3) is “Food assistance” (DG Echo 2011: 7). This is mainly taking place in Darfur but also in
the South with a different focus. It’s mainly about the reaction to “new displacements and to
severe, transitory food insecurity” (Ibid). Also (4) “the support to basic services” is one part
(Ibid). This support is significant for conflict regions or regions with refugees from Abyei and
South Kordofan and also in regions or areas where not other interventions interact (DG Echo
2011: 8). The services should encourage “the provision of health, nutrition services, water and
sanitation, and food security” (Ibid).
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5.4.2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
5.4.2.1 BILATERAL RELATIONS BETWEEN THE NORTH AND THE SOUTH SUDAN
The relationship between the Sudan and the South Sudan is still minted by some outstanding
like CPA or post- independence negotiations (financial arrangements, Abyei and the border
demarcation). Another happening which enhance the tensions between both countries are the
ongoing conflicts in South Kordofan and the Blue Nile States. Especially because the North
incriminated the South to the SPLM North. The South denied these imputations. (UN
2011/a:4)
There was also a meeting between the two presidents, Al-Bashir and Kiir in Khartoum.
Results of this meeting were positive public statements and the assurance to work together to
solve the outstanding problems. (UN 2011/a: 4)
5.4.2.2 OTHER RELATIONS
The new state South Sudan applied for membership in different international organizations.
Since July 2011 the South Sudan is the 193rd member of the United Nations, and since August
2011 the 54th member of the African Union. They also applied for membership in the Nile
Basin Initiative. Aside from the applications it also indicated its intentions to join some other
organizations like the Intergovernmental Authority and Development and the East African
Community where it applied for an observer status. (UN 2011/a: 4)
Another indicator for the international relations is the fact that 14 countries established their
embassies in the South Sudan. (UN 2011/a: 4)
In December 2011 was a conference in Washington initiated by USAID, “co-sponsors – the
United Kingdom, Norway, Turkey, the European Union, the African Union, the United
Nations, the World Bank, the International Finance Corporation, the Corporate Council on
Africa, and InterAction” (Whitehouse 2011). The main reason for the conference was to find
oil companies, other aid organizations, and companies at the agricultural sector to invest. The
U.S. Treasury reduced the sanctions, which existed before the independency, within the oil
sector to make foreign investment possible. Raij Shah, the head of USAID, sees strong
interests in the private sector. The companies who were a part of the conference are Marathon
Oil (US), Halliburton Co (US) and Google (US). (Quinn 2011: 1, 3)
Also the US, Britain and Norway agreed to help in some sectors of the economy.
50
“Britain will help South Sudan improve public management and anti-corruption efforts; oilrich Norway will help develop governance of the oil sector; and the United States will lead on
encouraging private sector investment and boosting agriculture - seen as one of the country's
most promising sectors” (Quinn 2011: 3).
The head of USAID sees a high potential in the agricultural sector, for exports and selfsufficiency (Quinn 2011: 3).
5.4.3 ANALYSIS ACCORDING TO THE FRAME
First it needs to be remarked that the data availability for the interventions and other activities
in South Sudan are quite limited. Therefore the basis for a detailed analysis might lack some
detailed information. Nevertheless the generated data imply certain insights in the current
situation of the South Sudan.
The given data give evidence that external involvement is comparably intense and give also
an insight in the current governmental situation of the South Sudan. Besides, the main
interests and affords of the external actors can be depicted. The data give clear evidence that
security and economic stability are the major dimensions (according to the framework)
international actors are dealing with.
The data show that in terms of the security, features like external border and internal conflict
control, for instance the prevention of ethnic and civil conflict, are addressed through external
interventions. Furthermore military support in forms of manpower is given, to stabilize the
new state. This leads to the conclusion that South Sudan is not able to provide an adequate
number of skilled and trained stuff. This shows that the Southsudanese government is not
capable of ensuring these basic requirements by itself. It becomes clear that all most of the
security issues are largely depending on external activities.
In the economic dimension the external interventions are focused on stabilizing the economic
environment, like the building of infrastructures and to assist further industrial development.
This forms of support bring to light that the lack of stability in economic patterns is, in the
notion of the external actors, an important issue.
In addition, the political involvement is mainly focused on capacity building, increasing the
functions and effectiveness of the governmental institutions. The support through trained and
skilled manpower is a indicator for instable settings in the current government.
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In short, based on this evidence it is approved that the external actors see the current
governmental situation in the South Sudan as very instable. Furthermore, the notion is that the
government is not capable of solving these challenges. The goals and foci of the interventions
bring to light where the international community sees most urgent needs, and in addition the
most harassing threats for South Sudan`s environment. Besides that the intensity of aid and
advocacy make clear that it is not assumed that South Sudan will be able to solve this
problems in the near future. For the purpose of this paper the orientation of the external actors
on specific issues give insights about the fragility of the government.
The aspect of the involvement of a country in international organizations is a main indicator
for the stability or fragility of a state. In the case of South Sudan the data findings indicate
remarkable efforts from the Southsudanese side to increase its position in the international
context. The memberships and applications show great interest in this matter. The
achievement of some memberships and the other activities in this issue, illustrate a certain
degree of governmental effectiveness and functioning. Besides, some of the requirements for
certain memberships might not be fully met, but the acceptation as UN and AU member
demonstrates a certain degree of governmental functioning.
However, in case of the international economic relations the picture which is drawn by the
collected data is rather weak. The engagement in international economic organizations or
initiatives is extremely limited. The evidence shows that South Sudan is not an equal member
of these and mostly just dependent on organizational support and aid. This implies a huge lack
of self-determination and gives further evidence about its economic dependency. This insists
fragility in this matter, but since the South Sudan is actively participating, these challenges
seem to be acknowledged.
5.4.4 MAIN ANALYZE WITH REGARDS TO THE THEORETICAL APPROACHES
A detailed analysis has been made in the findings of framework. In this part, the main
findings in relation to social, economy and political aspect of South Sudan shall be analyzed
in line with modernization and realism theories. And then a general analysis regarding the
applicability of modernization and realism theory shall be made. Finally, the relevance of
modernization theory in South Sudan State building Process shall be looked from the critical
points of world theory system.
To link the social aspects of this project to the theories, the main focus here will be the
transformation of the society from a traditional to a modern one. This transformation is
52
generally explained within the evolutionary part of the modernization theory. The social
sector is so far important for this, since without any health care or an efficient education
system this transformation cannot take place. The process where a society becomes more
complex is an essential part of the development. During this process, states change their
values, behavior and also institutions to achieve a modern status, which is more efficient
(Andersen 2006). Without a proper health care and education system, the efficiency cannot
increase. The current situation shows that South Sudan attempts to solve the problems.
According to this the transformation process within the South Sudan started but it is still in
progress.
Besides the social aspects the economical development is also important for the
transformation process and it is also affected by social development. The current economic
situation is characterized by dependency on the oil sector. The development within the
economy is except from the oil is still poorly performing and therefore still very weak. Hence,
the need for foreign direct investments is increasing. The FDI was mainly from China, India
or Malaysia and was directed to the oil industry.
The reason why countries invest can be explained on the surface with the realism theory and
to go into detail the rational choice approach. First the investment is determined by selfinterests. The rational choice approach explains the investments through a measurement of
costs and benefits for the investors. These are driven by preferences; the main feature is
mostly the utility. Based on this approach China, India and Malaysia are investing because
they are driven by their self-interest. In case of this investment the need for cheap natural
resources to increase their own economy is evident. The reasons for states or organizations to
intervene can be explained with the same theoretical approach. They are also acting driven by
self-interest and the try to enhance their own situation.
Nevertheless South Sudan needs these interventions to stabilize their current position. The
interventions support a lot of different fields, like the security, the economic and the social
part. This aid increases the possibilities for South Sudan to become a stable state.
Also another important issue is the security dimension. Especially the conflicts in Jonglei and
Upper Nile State had significant humanitarian consequences. To reach long- term effects the
problem solving process should start at the root causes of conflicts, what is actually addressed
through external interventions (UN 2011/a: 17).
53
The Modernization Theory legitimizes these interventions and investments as these supports
the modernization process (So 1990: 36).
All this different fields are driven by governmental development and the state-building
process within the country. The state-building process in South Sudan can be explained with a
theoretical state-building attachment at the modernization theory. According to Samuel
Huntington the creation of a political community and a government with legitimacy is very
important. The current government in the South is still a transitional one, even though the
basis for the creation of a new one is set there are no actual achievements yet. Besides that the
political participation of citizens is crucial in the state-building process. This feature is not
met in South as mainly all formal positions are dominated by the SPLM and many restrictions
for opposition parties are still reality. In addition, the separation of power and the
decentralization took just place regarding the institutions which did not constrain the
influence of the SPLM.
According to this assessment the South is still far away from a stable government. However,
the main challenges and problems are mainly acknowledged and policies to meet certain
issues have been introduced. The South Sudan has a created a Development Plan, which is
support from the United Nation and other development partners. This plan should be fulfilled
at the end of 2013. The main focus will be on four areas (1) governance, (2) economic
development, (3) social and human development and (4) conflict prevention and security.
(UN 2011/a: 12). Assessed by the theoretical frame of this study the development of the South
Sudan is still at the beginning.
At present, the state building process in South Sudan is linked to modernization theory. For
South Sudan, there may not be an option available that does not go along with modernization
theoretical concept. What is currently being done by South Sudan is implementing the
prescribed strategies based on modernization theories foundation. By doing so, South Sudan
is attempting to establish effective governance and a stable political system (The International
Crises Group 2011).The other major task of South Sudan is to facilitate democratization
process and raise participation of citizens in the state building process. Each task is
challenging. But what makes it more challenging is the fact that all the stated tasks must be
implemented at concurrently (So 1990:31-32).
Modernization theory does not take into account the current internal situation of a specific
country. For instance, the tribal diversity in South Sudan and traditional values are not
54
considered in modernization theory (Ibid). The modern state concepts are alien to the majority
of the population in South Sudan (The International Crises Group 2011). At this time, only
the elites of South Sudan are trying to modernize the Society (Ibid). This is a top down
strategy and misses the domestic input from citizens of South Sudan.
As the matter of fact, South Sudan is not alone in the nation building process. They are getting
direct financial aid and consultancy services from advanced western states, international
financial institutions and NGOs. Pursuant to modernization theory, the support they are
getting can be due to moral grounds and mutual interest. And the theory argues that mutual
interest dictates the assistance towards undeveloped nations. The modernization and
development of South Sudan means more trade possibilities with developed nations and this
would increase prosperity for both sides. However, realism theory does not accept these
arguments. As it states that nations acts and reacts based on self-interest. When instability and
crises continues in South Sudan, it may cause security and migration problems for developed
countries. This possibly makes developed nations to see supporting South Sudan as guarding
their self interest.
The analysis of the current state building process in South Sudan in line with the world
system theory provides another picture of the whole situation. As per world system theory, the
success of state building process in the nation is determined by the prevailing world order or
structure. The types of strategies adopted by South Sudan have less importance in the
achievement of state building process. Accordingly, the modernization theory may not
ultimately result in success in South Sudan. The three ladders of the world system are
constructed based on exploitative division of labour where, wealth is transferred from the
poor to the rich.
Accordingly, South Sudan is grouped among with the exploited periphery countries. Hence,
the challenge to South Sudan in state building process is not only related to domestic policy
and strategy but also to the current world structure. The Success of South Sudan state building
is also determined by the success and failure of other countries. There is always competition
among undeveloped countries to advance their economies and industries. The core countries
are also determined to remain in core and keep in the three hierarchical ladder of the world
system intact.
World system theory confirms that there is a possibility of movement of countries from one
layer to another in both directions. That is to say a country from a core may lower down to the
55
semi-periphery and vice versa. Peripheral countries have also possibilities of uplifting
themselves to the next ladder of the world system. Thus, South Sudan could also have the
possibilities to elevate itself to the next level in the world System.
World System theory simply criticizes a solution or strategy prescribed by the modernization
theory. It does not provide a tangible strategy or solution that enables countries to develop.
Hence, it is highly unlikely to practically to enumerate strategies from world system theory
that can support the state building process in South Sudan.
6. CONCLUSION
In conclusion, the findings in this paper about the current governmental status of South Sudan
show clearly that the political conditions are very fragile and many issues will still have to be
addressed in the future. Currently, the difficult challenges emanate from several different
dimensions. This situation is rather complex since most of these issues are examined as urgent
and crucial. Especially, the interrelations between these challenges make it problematic to
solve the current difficulties step by step. The precarious circumstances this new state is
trapped in, in terms of human development, economic patterns, security risks and political
uncertainties, will not easily be changed in the future.
The former analysis provides specific and detailed insight in some of the current needs and
also puts up detailed discussions on the main achievements. However, the insights which were
generated show that the governmental affords are focused on the main instability features.
Nevertheless, these are no satisfactory policies in place to solve these problems, yet. This
includes that the perspectives and outlooks are rather negative in terms of stability.
Furthermore, the governmental composition and the capacities are not effective and crucially
lacking effectiveness and also in certain aspects legitimacy.
Even though, the introduced policies and structural changes could not be assessed in detail in
this paper, there are strong concerns about a positive future outlook from our side. This is not
only due to several constraints and problems the implementation of these are currently
encountered with, but also due to the theoretical foundations of them. All in all, the strategy
South Sudan is following at present might be restricted due to its basis in the modernization
theory.
Given the current approaches and the characterization of the international system, we agreed
to examine some recommendations according to our achieved findings. However, formulation
56
of key aspects of further activities proved to be rather difficult, as we found it problematic to
build a useful hierarchy for our recommendations. This was obviously caused by the different
research and interest fields each of the participants of this paper dealt with in the previous
sections. Even though we discussed our findings several times, it became obvious that each
participant had the clear tendency to value his/her findings as most crucial.
Nevertheless, we could gain a consensus about the most necessary changes and activities in
South Sudan for the near future. These conclusions are not sorted by priority, since they are
all important and highly interrelated. Therefore, we agreed to sum it up by aligning it to the
project composition.

To meet the current needs for social services several major challenges :
-
The provision of an effective institutional basis should be ensured since this would
at least enable the humanitarian organizations to supply the services in an adequate
way.
-
In addition, it is inevitable to establish structures through which South Sudan can
educate its own personnel.

To address the economic challenges and uncertainties :
-
The tensions about the oil resources have to be reduced in two separate aspects:
First of all, it is crucial to gain a consensus with the North about the share of the
oil revenue. Secondly, to achieve sustainable economic development, the
dependency on oil industry has to be decreased through a shift to other sectors.
This could be executed through a focus on agriculture, but a change to
manufacturing industries should be the final goal.
-
Besides, the fiscal policy has to be more regulated to ensure a save business
environment and to attract external capital inflows and ensure more government
revenue through taxes.

To ensure governmental stability directly:
-
The structures and policies for participation of the civil society have to be carried
out into execution.
-
The current transitional has to be transformed to a legitimate one, including a fixed
and recognized constitution.
-
To ensure the legitimacy in the political system, the room for opposition has to be
structurally established and implemented.
-
The propositions about inclusion and participation have to be actively realized.
57

To ensure security for the population:
-
The current dependency on external player need to be decreased through
negotiations with international actors
-
The current risk of internal conflicts have to be met through a strong executive
power, which needs to have sufficient capacities and are legitimized through the
rule of law

To consolidate the international relations:
-
The current lack of legitimacy of the South Sudanese government has to be
addressed to ensure international acceptance.
-
The effectiveness of the government has to be increased to better the possibilities
for active external participation.
These recommendations are based on a broad overview. Hence, to identify the necessary steps
for active implementation further studies and investigations would be inevitable. This was not
possible due to time and space limitations in this specific study.
To sum it up, the general picture of South Sudan`s stability is still lacking major features.
However, South Sudan is a new state, with its foundations in a history which was
characterized by conflict and war, therefore many issue are not solved yet. We see based on
our investigations positive developments and some achievements, which could be the basis
for a stable and developed state. The long-term developments are not really predictable;
therefor, many uncertainties are in our opinion still existing.
58
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64
8. APENDIX
Dimensions
”Governance/Politi
cs”
Sub-dimensions
Regimes/Leadership
(Autority/
Legitimacy)
 Extend of
democracy
Institutions
(Effectiveness/Legitim
acy)
Rule of law
(Legitimacy)
Elections
International
acceptance
Indicators
Type of regime (Polity IV Dataset)
Use
J
Extend of participation
J
Time period of government in place
X
Regulations for periodic leader changes
J
Dependence on foreign aid( % of central
government expenditures)
Type of institutions (Polity IV Dataset)
Institutional multiplicity (different rules in the same
territory)
Division of power institutionalized(Independence of
different branches guaranteed)
Pol. Competition institutionalized
Existence of institution to oversee public
expenditures
Transparency (duty)
(de-)centralization
Distinction of power
(legislature/judicature/executive)
Transfer of power according to law
Fundamental rights established:
 Equal treatment
 Right to life/ person security
Rights of accused
Freedom of:
 Opinion/expression/religion/assembly/asso
ciation
Sanctions for misconduct
Labour rights
Regulations effectively enforced
Existence of civil justice
Informal justice (tribes etc.) protect fundamental
rights
Exclusion of groups
Estimation of legitimacy by external observers
Violence during elections
Openness/Competitiveness
Access (Nominating/Electing/Running for)
Extend of protests/strikes
Membership in regional/ international organizations
J
65
J
X
J
X
J
X
J
J
Try
J
X
J
X
J
X
X
J
J
X
X
J
X
J
Dimensions
”Economics”
Sub-dimensions
Macroeconomic
performance
Indicators
GDP growth (over time)
Inflation rate (over time)
Economic size (total GDP)
External Sector
Economic
legitimacy
Business
environment
Fiscal
”Security”
Military
performance
Conflict control
Infrastructure (electricity/telephone)
FDI (ratio to GDP) (changes)
Share of primary commodity exports
(export composition)
Trade openness
Level of participation in international
economic organizations
External debt
Poverty rate(% of population living on a)
less 2$ b) 1$)
Population experiencing economic
discrimination (%)
Unemployment rate
Horizontal equity
Equitable distribution of costs and benefits
Inequality (GINI Coefficient)
Number of days to start a business
Paying taxes
Credible currency
Central bank (or similar authority)
Ministry of finance (or similar authority)
Consolidated/transparent budget
processes
Military expenditure of GDP
Dependence on external military support
Control of external boarders
Skills of military stuff
Institutionalization of military (includes
rules and frames)
Crime control
Civil conflict control
Risk of ethnic rebellion
Conflict intensity
Internal territory control
66
Use
J Estimation
/Sudan
J Estimation
/Sudan
J (plans in
consideration
J
J
J
X
J
J
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
J
J
J
X
J
J
J
J
X
X
J
J
J
X
Dimensions
”Social
Aspects/Human
development”
Sub-dimensions
HDI
Education
Healthcare
Demography
”Natural
resources”
Deposits of raw
material
Extend of
competition
Management
Indicators
Access to water
Access to sanitation
Primary school completion rates
Primary schools enrolment
Literacy ratio (male/female)
School access (distance)
Pupil teacher ratio
Infant mortality
Health infrastructure (% of GDP)
Access to Healthcare
Quality (incl. skills of
stuff/equipment/facilities)
Population density
Population diversity:
 Ethnic
 religion
Migration rate (estimations/official
numbers)
Life expectancy (male/female)
Location
Amount/form
Interest groups
Control over the resources
Transparency in public management of
natural resource extraction
Based on:













Carment et al (2010)
Chapman & Vaillant (2010)
Developmentdata.org (2011)
Fabra & Ziaja (2009)
Goldstone (2009)
Kaufmann et al (2010)
Kaufmann & Kraay (2011)
The World Bank group (2011)
UN (2007)
USAID (2005)
USAID (2006)
USIP (2009
Warrener & Loehr (2005)
67
Use
X
X
X
J
X
J
J
J
X
J
J
X
X
X
X
J
J
J
J
X