2015 Course Syllabus Global Sustainability and Public Policy A Primer Professor Melinda Kimble and Professor Stephanie Kinney This course considers the interaction of economics, energy, and environmental issues on global ecological systems. It offers a brief examination of the global economy and its externalities; an overview of relevant international legal frameworks and national governance systems; and the state of major ecosystems – grasslands, forests and species habitats; wetlands, oceans and rivers – and the atmosphere and selected policy issues related to each. We will look at the accelerating interest in sustainability among governments, corporations, and civil society and how new perspectives and policy initiatives are trying to address the challenges. Emphasis will be less on “what” to think than “how” to think about and formulate longer-term policy responses to complex, rapidly changing, multidimensional issues. Sustainability has taken on a new profile since the UN’s Rio+20 conference in 2012. In September 2015, the international community will adopt a set of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) that are designed to be applied universally. These goals will replace the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) that were adopted in 2000 at the UN Millennium Summit and set a framework for donor investment in bilateral and multilateral assistance programs through 2015. The MDGs focused on primarily social aspects – health, education, poverty, and gender equality – of human development. On balance, the MDGs are considered worthwhile because they prioritized certain key sectors and interventions that focused the investments of national governments and donors. Targets and baselines were established so that results could be measured on a regular basis. The SDGs (or Global Goals) are designed to address the three dimensions of sustainable development – environmental, economic and social– in every country. Targets and indicators have been proposed, but not all are easily measurable. This new policy framework is much more ambitious and complex and requires significant domestic commitments by all governments, as well as international cooperation. It is too early to know if it will succeed, but it is a marked departure from previous approaches at the UN and reflects dramatic changes in the world over the past two decades—during your lifetime! Course requirements: Class attendance and participation: (20%) Full attendance and participation is the best way to ensure success in class. If an absence is unavoidable, please contact us and we will give you a make-up assignment. No more than one absence is permitted during the term. Please bring one news article to class on a class-relevant issue each week. We discuss these briefly at the beginning or end of the class in an effort to connect theory and practice. It is important to use the Seminar’s Electronic Blackboard and complete the required readings before class as they will be the focus of discussion and your participation and contribution to the class weigh heavily. Each student will be asked to lead the class discussion on several assigned readings during the term. Policy Thinking Tool: This tool provides you with a checklist of factors to consider in analyzing past, current and future policies discussed in class. The tool, however, can be applied beyond policies discussed in class, and is particularly designed to strengthen your thinking and analytic skills. Treaty Paper: (15%) In the first two classes, we will review a number of treaties and agreements that govern international environmental cooperation. You may choose from the limited list of treaties we provide and analyze these according to the “guiding questions” to be presented. Due September 22. Midterm Paper: (20%) We will assign an issue (or issues) for discussion in a 4-6 page paper in mid-October. Here again, you should use the Policy Thinking Tool in preparing your analysis. Due October 20. Class Presentation: (15%) This will be assigned in November. It will provide an opportunity to look at the Chesapeake Bay – which offers a local case study of issues in the class. Personal Carbon Footprint Calculation: (10%) This concept will be introduced in class and we will suggest a calculator to help you prepare it. Due December 1. Final Paper: (20%) Your final research paper is an analysis of a particular policy problem (we will offer a limited choice). In this paper, you should build on the experience of applying the Policy Thinking Tool and key concepts introduced in class to developing a 6-8 page analysis of the assigned issue and your recommendations for action. Due December 8. Class Texts and Readings: We will use selected readings from a number of texts and post them on the Electronic Blackboard for the course. The texts below provide the majority of the readings. The required text for the class will be Sustainability: A History, Jeremy L. Caradonna, Oxford University Press, 2014. We will have copies for sale at $20.00 in class. This book is also available as an e-book or directly from Amazon. As noted above, we will post select readings from the following texts: The Global Environment: Institutions, Law, and Policy, 4th Ed., Edited by Regina S. Axelrod and Stacy D. VanDeveer, Sage, 2015 Is Sustainability Still Possible?, Worldwatch Institute, 2013 The End of the Long Summer, Diane Dumanoski, Crown, 2009. Ecological Economics: Principles and Applications, 2nd Ed. Herman Daly and Joshua Farley, Island Press, 2011. Additional topical articles and analyses will also be posted on the Blackboard each week. Sustainability Glossary and Policy Thinking Tool - class handouts and also available on the Blackboard. (Another reference book you may wish to purchase would be the paperback Oxford Dictionary of Environment and Conservation, 2nd Edition, by Chris Park and Michael Allaby, Oxford University Press, 2013) List of Selected Environmental Treaties: U.S. Department of State. UN Multilateral Environmental Agreements: http://informea.org/treaties In addition, all power point presentations will be available for further study at the Blackboard’s Power Point Tab. I. INSTITUTIONS, INTERNATIONAL LAW & THE GLOBAL ECONOMY Sept. 1, 8, 15 In the first session, we will focus on personal introductions and expectations, course structure, book purchases, assignments and responsibilities. We will also provide a brief introduction to both the vocabulary of sustainability and multilateral environmental agreements (MEAs), (which includes treaties and conventions), and the relevant institutions, both domestic and international, that work on implementation. We are using the entry point of sustainable development and sustainability to examine how U.S. national policy and its international influence has shaped international environmental norms and agreements over five decades. We will also look at how and why the U.S. role has changed and what that implies for the new agreements now in negotiation. Economics and environmental policy are closely linked at both national and international processes and this linkage cannot be ignored in policy making. The Policy Thinking Tool we have designed should help you analyze the various policies and policy processes we will discuss in class. In the first three classes we will explore the following questions: 1. How is environmental policy connected to sustainability or sustainable development? What accounts for differences within the “Sustainability Movement?” 2. How has the economy changed since 1800? What are the implications for the environment and sustainability? 3. Who are the stakeholders in these concepts and/or policies and how has public interest evolved? 4. Why did treaties or Multilateral Environmental Agreements (MEAs) become an instrument of choice to address underlying environmental problems for the international community? 5. How do MEAs impact your lives and how do they mesh with the American political/legal environment? 6. What is the difference between an MEA and an international action plan? 7. What is the difference between the MDGs and the SDGs (or Global Goals)? 8. How have we traditionally measured economic progress and value? 9. What’s the difference between classical and ecological economics? 10.What are the most important “externalities” to you today and why? To address these questions, in the order in which they are listed, you should complete the following readings ASAP but no later than Sept 15, as they will be essential material for our next two classes and lay the foundation for the rest of the course. Sustainability: A History, Jeremy L. Caradonna, Oxford, 2015. Introduction, Chapters 1-5. These chapters and those in Axelrod offer several perspectives on the sustainability movement. The Global Environment: Institutions, Law, and Policy, 4th Ed., Edited by Regina S. Axelrod and Stacy D. VanDeveer, Sage, 2015.Chapters 1-3. pp. 1-65. This material is essential background. The End of the Long Summer, Diane Dumanoski, Chaps. 1-2, “The Future Head On” and “The Planetary Era,” pp. 1-32 Ecological Economics: Principles and Applications, 2nd Ed., Herman E. Daily and Joshua Farley, Island Press, 2011. Chaps. 1 &2. “Sustainable Development Goals: All You Need to Know”, The Guardian – see www.theguardian.com/global-development/jan/19/2015/sustainable-developmentgoals-united-nations. “Our Piece on the Sustainable Development Goals” Amar Bhattacharya and Homi Kharas, Brookings Institution. www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2015/04/our-piece-sustainabledevelopment-goals “(Mis)leading Indicators”, Zachary Karabell, Foreign Affairs, Mar-Apr 2014. “On Money – Why Economic Statistics Matter”, Adam Davidson, New York Times Magazine, July 15, 2015 pp. 18-23. II. BALANCING COMPLEXITY: ECONOMY, SOCIETY & ECOLOGY, September 22-29 TREATY PAPER DUE SEPTEMBER 22!! The dominance of the human species and increased consumption in all regions -far beyond basic human needs -- have put new pressures on the earth’s ecosystems that sustain both humanity and the planet itself. Energy resources, trade and finance have played major roles in globalization as we recovered from two World Wars before 1950. Today, however, Western societies, as well as Japan and China, are transitioning to aging populations. In turn, some developing countries confront the challenges of their “youth bulge,” not unlike the United States in the 60’s. Our search for political stability and security, economic prosperity and ecological sustainability has taken us to a new level of complexity and rapid change that demands a multidisciplinary approach. We will explore the following questions: 1) How does science solve problems? How does “politics” solve problems? 2) Globalization, trade and finance have dominated modern history as we recovered from two global conflicts before 1950.How has world population increased since 1900, 1945, 1990? 3) What are the factors that enabled this increase? What are the consequences? 4) What is an ecosystem? 5) What services does an ecosystem provide? 6) How are these services accounted for in the economy? 7) How does urbanism interact with sustainability? Required Readings: Questions to guide Treaty Paper due Sept 22 Ecological Economics: Principles and Applications, 2nd Ed., Herman E. Daily and Joshua Farley, Island Press, 2011. Chaps. 3 & 4 Is Sustainability Still Possible? Worldwatch Institute, 2013, Chap. 2 “Respecting Planetary Boundaries and Reconnecting to the Biosphere,” Carl Folke, pp.19-27. Is Sustainability Still Possible? Worldwatch Institute, 2013, Chap. 3, “Defining a Safe and Just Space for Humanity,” Kate Raworth, pp. 28-38 A Practical Guide to Population and Development, Maura Graff and Jason Bremner, Population Reference Bureau, June 2014: www.prb.org/Publications/Reports/2014/population-development-guide.aspx (Note: Look at the Interactive Graphics on World Population 2014-2050 on the Population Reference Bureau website!) “The New Population Bomb, The Four Megatrends That Will Change the World,” Jack Goldstone, Foreign Affairs, January/February 2010 III. TERRESTRIAL ECOSYSTEMS: ENERGY & ITS IMPACTS, October 6-13 Human civilization has depended on the continuous development and exploitation of energy – from fire, animals, rivers, human beings, and the riches of fossil fuels. This latter source of energy has transformed modern societies. Our shelter, transport, food, water, and economies are totally dependent on the availability of relatively cheap energy sources – the dominant ones being coal, petroleum and natural gas. This transformation has provided the Western world with living standards beyond the imagination of human beings in 1900, but this gain has come with consequences, or “externalities,” that now underlie advocacy for new policy approaches and behavior change. This unit explores these questions: 1) What has fossil fuel use made possible—how and why? 2) Can you identify unaccounted costs or externalities of fossil fuel use— economically, politically, socially, technologically, ecologically? 3) What are the implications of projected fossil fuel use? 4) What are possible ways to reduce such use and/or its impacts? 5) Can countries with limited access to modern energy technologies and services and cheap supplies develop? 6) Can alternative energy reduce modern society’s dependence on fossil fuel? 7) What is the role of renewable energy? 8) What information and analysis can you trust to provide a level of objectivity? 9) If energy is a national choice, what are the implications of this—nationally, regionally, geo-strategically? 10) If national interests drive foreign policy and international treaty law, when it comes to controlling CO2 emissions, what are the implications for the US, EU, Japan, India, Russia, China, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, France, Germany, Poland, Nigeria, Azerbaijan, and Georgia ? Required readings: Sustainability: A History, Jeremy L. Caradonna, Oxford, 2015. Chap. 6, “Sustainability Today: 2000-Present”. The End of the Long Summer, Diane Dumanoski, Crown, 2009, Chap. 4, "The Return of Nature”, Chap. 5, “A Stormworthy Lineage. Is Sustainability Still Possible? Worldwatch Institute, Island Press, 2013. Chap. 7“Energy as Master Resource,” Eric Zencey , pp. 73-83; Is Sustainability Still Possible? Worldwatch Institute, Island Press, 2013. Chap. 8 “Renewable Energy’s Natural Resource Impacts,” Shakuntala Makhijani and Alexander Ochs,pp. 84-98 Is Sustainability Still Possible?, Worldwatch Institute, Island Press, 2013, Chap. 15 “Beyond Fossil Fuels: Assessing Energy Alternatives,” T.W. Murphy, Jr, pp. 172-183; “America’s Energy Edge,” Robert Blackwill and Meghan O’Sullivan, Foreign Affairs, Mar-Apr. 2014 IV. TERRESTRIAL ECOSYSTEMS: AGRICULTURE: LANDSCAPES, FOOD AND POLLUTION (October 20 and October 27) MID-TERM PAPER DUE OCTOBER 20 The emergence of settled agriculture within human societies profoundly changed society; its organization and its complexity as it gave rise to urban centers. The ability to produce food, store surpluses and organize farm labor in fallow seasons for communal projects impacted landscapes and communities and gave rise to high cultures. Domesticated farm animals and crops changed both energy balance and diet of humans. The need to organize information and transmit it intergenerationally led to the emergence of new systems that promoted and rewarded learning and innovation and what Richard Florida has called “creativity centers.” In the 20th century, however, agriculture started to industrialize – planting more land in a few heavily traded crops aimed at building competitive advantage, deploying more labor-saving devices and using new seeds and chemicals to meet global demand. This shift has had environmental consequences even prior to the development of genetically modified crops. And nowhere was the impact of this change more profound than in the U.S. And nowhere is the challenge of agriculture today more urgent than in developing countries. In this unit we will examine some of these questions: 1) 2) 3) 4) 5) 6) 7) 8) 9) How did agriculture change landscapes, societies? What were and are the essential factors for productive agriculture? What changes were beneficial? What changes were negative? What lessons did the U.S. learn from the experience of the Dust Bowl? Identify the pollution problems created by traditional and industrial agriculture. Where does the pollution go? Is it feasible to consider a return to more environmentally sound (“sustainable”) farming practices? What are the costs? What are the consequences? What are the conditions needed for success? Who defines “success?” Required readings: Plows, Plagues and Petroleum, William F. Ruddiman, Princeton University Press, 2010, Chap. 7, Early Agriculture and Civilization,” Green Planet Blues, 4th Ed, Ken Conca and Geoffrey D. Dabelko, Westview 2010, Chap. 3, “The Tragedy of the Commons,” Garret Hardin. (An environmental classic.) REQUIRED Video: “Surviving the Dust Bowl” at American Experience, www.pbs.org. An intense description of how the quest for more agricultural production unleashed a profound environmental catastrophe. The Future of Food, National Geographic, April 2014 (beginning of an 8-part series) www.natgeofood.com Is Sustainability Still Possible? Worldwatch Institute, Island Press, 2013, Chap. 17 “Agriculture: Growing Food -- and Solutions,” Danielle Nierenberg and Olivia Arnow. V. THE WATER CYCLE: FRESHWATER & MARINE ECOSYSTEMS November 3-10 GROUP CLASS PRESENTATIONS DUE THIS SECTION All the freshwater that ever existed is already on earth – the globe has a finite supply of this vital resource. Available freshwater comprises less than 3% of the earth’s water – the rest is contained in oceans and ice. Water is recycled through a global cycle that incorporates plant photosynthesis, filter processes, the ebb and flow of wind, rivers, and ocean currents. The availability of water supported the rise of early civilizations; and the loss of water has contributed to societal collapse. River systems throughout the world provide many benefits beyond water itself. They provide transport for goods and people, power for cities, irrigation for farmland, but this vital resource is poorly distributed – even within national boundaries. The growth of cities and the emergence of industrial farming have diminished the quality and quantity of available water globally. Many legal regimes and institutions have been created to manage this critical resource over centuries. We will look at an example close to home of the interaction between agriculture and water ecosystems and their quality. Oceans represent the largest (and least known and understood) network of ecosystems on the planet and provide habitat for a vast array of known and unknown species. The water cycle is inextricably linked to our climate, and as temperatures change, the intensity and volatility of storms is likely to increase – creating challenges for coastal areas and shipping lanes. A growing global middle class poses a threat to fish stocks. As sea ice melts and new access to shipping lanes and natural resources emerges, governance of both the Arctic and the Antarctic is becoming a major issue. We will focus part of the oceans discussion on one of the most complex international treaties, the UN Convention on Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), as well as on the issues of ocean acidification, dumping and pollution, such that we have already created dead zones and new “dead seas.” In this unit we will examine these questions: 1) What is the interaction between agriculture and aqueous ecosystems? 2) What are wetlands and estuaries and why do they matter? 3) What is the interaction between these aqueous ecosystems and climate change? 4) Who “owns” water and how is it valued? 5) What are land based sources of pollution and how are they regulated? 6) What is the Law of the Sea, why does it matter and why hasn’t the US joined? 7) What is happening to fish stocks and why? How have coastal zone states responded? 8) What is the difference between acidification, nitrification, and putrification? 9) What are the most important treaties focused on water? 10) What is the Arctic Council and why has it suddenly become so popular? Note: Ambassador David Balton, Deputy Assistant Secretary, Department of State, Bureau of Oceans, Environment, and Science, will be a guest speaker. ALSO NOTE: We will have a group presentation project focused on a close to home example of how land, freshwater and ocean ecosystems interact and what the impacts are. The focus will be on the Chesapeake Bay—the largest estuary in the US. The presentation date depends on Ambassador Bolton’s schedule. We will examine the problems (chickens and oysters, industrial agriculture) and the challenges of diverse authorities (local, state and national) and even more diverse stakeholders. Start scanning the news and the internet for good articles related to the Chesapeake Bay. (Hint the Washington Post has provided faithful and reliable coverage of its challenges for years.) REQUIRED READINGS: Is Sustainability Still Possible?, Worldwatch Institute, 2013, Chap. 5 “Sustaining Freshwater and Its Dependents,” Sandra Postel, 51-62 The End of the Long Summer, Diane Dumanoski, Crown, 2009, Chap. 6, Playing Prospero: The Temptations of Technofix Is Sustainability Still Possible? Worldwatch Institute, Island Press, 2013, Chap. 6 “Sustainable Fisheries and Seas: Preventing Ecological Collapse,” Antonia Sohns and Larry Crowder, pp. 63-72 Atlantic-a Vast Ocean of a Million Stories, Simon Winchester, Harper Press, Chapter 6, “Change and Decay All Around the Sea”, pp.354-378: Rachel Carson’s The Sea Around Us and the collapse of the North Atlantic Cod Story. VI. ATMOSPHERIC ECOSYSTEM: UNDERSTANDING CLIMATE November 17, December 8, 15 N.B. There is no class on December 1. Time to work on your papers! Addressing climate change requires action at an unprecedented level because of its impact on every natural process – the global water cycle, maintenance of existing habitat and ground cover, disease prevalence, insect and bacteria growth, etc. Climate change is a natural phenomenon in geological time and now also conditioned and amplified by how our economies and societies operate. (See the NRC Report referenced below). The impacts of climate change, however, will vary by region and by level of institutional infrastructure. Yet, despite what Dumanoski terms a “planetary emergency”, the public policy response has been slow. It is important to understand why this is the case in order to address the issue effectively. Past experience with the problem of atmospheric ozone depletion in the late 80’s elated those involved but offered a flawed model for dealing with climate change. To understand the climate issue, we need to understand the its history and how the issue has evolved. The complexity of the climate problem and its framing as an “environmental” issue has been one factor in limiting policy options and the political process. We will examine these issues in light of the current situation, drawing on the policy thinking tool, lessons learned and the evolution of science, economics and politics over the last 25 years. In this unit we will examine these questions: 1) When and how were ozone depleting substances brought to public attention and how did the US public react initially and by 1987? What was the European reaction? 2) What contributed to the success of the Montreal Protocol and who drove the process? 3) How were the “Framework Agreements” for ozone and climate different? How did their respective “Protocols” differ? 4) When and how was the issue of climate change brought to public attention and how did the US public react initially and by 1995? How do you assess the public policy environment today? What has changed? 5) How would you frame the climate issue and why? Why does “framing” matter? 6) What might be an alternative to the UN Climate process? Required readings: Ozone Diplomacy, Richard Benedict, Harvard University Press, 1990, “Lessons Learned”, PDF on the blackboard The Global Environment, 4th ed, Chapter 4 “International Environmental Regimes and the Success of Global Ozone Policy,” David Leonard Dowie, pp. 83105 The Global Environment, 4th ed, Chapter 10, “International Climate Change Policy,” Michelle Betsill, pp. 234-54. Sustainability: A History, Jeremy L. Caradonna, Oxford, 2015. Chap. 7, “The Future: 10 Challenges for Sustainability”. “An Ecomodernist Manifesto”, April 2015, Mark Lynus, Ted Nordhaus, Shellenberger, et. al. http://www.ecomodernism.org/manifesto-english/ (also provided in PDF) Is Sustainability Still Possible? Worldwatch Institute, Island Press, 2013 Chap. 22, Pathways to Sustainability: Building Political Strategies, Melissa Leach, pp. 234-243, Chap. 31, Climate Change and Displacements, Michael Renner, pp. 343-352. The End of the Long Summer, Diane Dumanoski, Crown, 2009, Chap. 7, On Vulnerability and Survivability, Chap. 8, A New Map for the Planetary Era, and Chap. 9 Honest Hope, pp. 215-252