Census 2011 Briefing Paper Economy Date of Publication 22 January 2013 Published by Policy, Research and Engagement This report identifies the economic performance of the city as a whole and as such it uses some very specific terminology that may not be familiar. A guide to the terminology used is to be found in the appendix. All data shown here uses the NUTS3 geographical classification (Nomenclature of territorial units for statistics). Key Findings In Derby: o The total gross value added in 2010 (£5,675 million) represents 7.1% of the total GVA for the East Midlands region. Between 1998 and 2010, the total GVA increased at an average nominal rate of 3.6% per year In 2010, the GVA per head of population was £22,990, higher than the East Midlands or England. Between 1998 and 2010 GVA from production fell from 41% to 31%. In 2010 production still made up the largest percentage share of the total GVA with (30.5%). There is a significant number of industry categories with GVA outperforming the East Midlands and England, such as production, information and communication and real estate. In 2011, the GDHI was £12,479, 22.2% below the UK average. The average annual GDHI increase was 2.6% for the period 1998 to 2011, lower than the East Midlands and England. 1.0 Introduction The Office for National Statistics (ONS) conducted the latest Census on 27 March, 2011. It is estimated that 92% of people in Derby responded to the Census. Page | 1 2.0 Economic performance – Gross Value Added (GVA) at current prices The total gross value added for Derby in 2010 (£5,675 million) represents 7.1% of the total GVA for the East Midlands region. Between 1998 and 2010, the total GVA for Derby increased at an average nominal rate of 3.6% per year. This growth rate is less than the average annual change in both the East Midlands (3.9%) and England (4.3%). Table 2.0.1 - Headline GVA at current prices 1998 to 2004 1998 1999 2000 Derby East Midlands England 3,706.0 50,377.0 662,498.0 3,933.0 52,176.0 694,628.0 4,102.0 53,941.0 723,298.0 2001 £ Million 4,273.0 56,710.0 761,194.0 2002 2003 2004 4,421.0 59,988.0 800,319.0 4,633.0 64,200.0 853,981.0 4,795.0 67,655.0 901,086.0 Source: Office for National Statistics, Census 2011, April 2013 Update Table 2.0.2 – Headline GVA at current prices 2005 to 2010 2005 2006 2007 2008 £ Million Derby 5,017.0 5,279.0 5,542.0 5,585.0 East Midlands 70,509.0 74,367.0 78,353.0 79.227.0 England 947,218.0 997,356.0 1,056,933.0 1,080,363.0 2009 2010 5,448.0 77,251.0 1,063,683.0 5,675.0 79,914.0 1,099,713.0 Source: Office for National Statistics, Census 2011, April 2013 Update Figure 2.0.1 shows that Derby had the lowest average % change in GVA between 1998 and 2010 with 3.6% this is 0.3% lower than the East Midlands and 0.7% lower than England. Page | 2 Table 2.0.4 and Figure 2.0.1 illustrate a significant drop in the year on year change in GVA. Between 2006 and 2007 an increase of 5.0% and 2008 to 2009, a decrease to -2.5%. This downturn is reflected at a regional and national level, the East Midlands falling to -2.5% and England performing significantly worse at -1.5%. GVA recovery between 2008 to 2009 and 2009 to 2010 has been most significant in Derby increasing to 4.2% from a low point of -2.5%. Figure 2.03 - GVA at current basic prices - year-on-year change 1998 to 2004 Derby England East Midlands Percentage 5.1 6.1 4.8 4.1 4.3 3.6 7.0 5.8 6.7 5.2 5.1 4.8 5.5 5.4 4.2 3.5 3.5 3.4 1998 to 1999 1999 to 2000 2000 to 2001 2001 to 2002 2002 to 2003 2003 to 2004 Source: Office for National Statistics, Census 2011, April 2013 Update Figure 2.0.4 - GVA at current basic prices - year-on-year change 2004 to 2010 East Midlands Percentage 5.1 4.6 4.2 5.5 5.3 5.2 Derby England 6.0 5.4 4.2 5.0 3.4 3.4 2.2 1.1 -1.5 0.8 2004 to 2005 2005 to 2006 2006 to 2007 2007 to 2008 2008 to 2009 2009 to 2010 -2.5 Source: Office for National Statistics, Census 2011, April 2013 Update Page | 3 -2.5 Figure 2.0.5 further illustrates the downturn in GVA. Between 2006 and 2008 Derby had the greatest downturn in year on year change, falling from 5.0% in the 2006 to 2007 period to 0.8% in the 2007 to 2008 period and then to -2.5% in the 2008 to 2009 period. Figure 2.05 - GVA year-on-year nominal change Derby Percentage England East Midlands 7.0 5.8 6.1 4.8 3.6 4.3 5.2 4.1 5.1 3.4 4.2 5.1 3.5 6.7 4.8 5.5 5.1 5.4 4.6 3.5 4.2 5.5 6.0 5.3 5.4 5.2 5.0 4.2 3.4 3.4 2.2 1.1 0.8 1998 to 1999 to 2000 to 2001 to 2002 to 2003 to 2004 to 2005 to 2006 to 2007 to 2008 to 2009 to 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 -1.5 -2.5 -2.5 Source: Office for National Statistics, Census 2011, April 2013 Update 3.0 Economic Performance – Gross value added per head of population at current prices In 2010, the GVA per head of population for Derby was £22,990 this was greater than the GVA per head for the East Midlands region (£17,832) and greater than England (£21,054). Between 1998 and 2010, the average annual increase of GVA per head for Derby was 3.0%. This was lower than the East Midlands with 3.2% and England with 3.7%. Page | 4 Figure 3.0.1 Headline GVA at current prices (£) 1998 to 2004 Derby 16,050 England 17,774 17,008 13,570 14,167 14,691 12,190 12,565 12,941 1998 1999 2000 East Midlands 18,522 19,037 15,393 16,120 2001 17,982 17,126 15,765 15,091 14,210 13,536 20,371 19,849 2002 2003 2004 Source: Office for National Statistics, Census 2011, April 2013 Updates Figure 3.0.2 Headline GVA at current prices (£) 2005 to 2010 Derby 21,140 18,769 16,295 2005 22,020 19,647 17,046 2006 England East Midlands 22,924 22,970 20,681 20,992 17,820 17,887 2007 2008 22,317 22,990 20,531 21,054 17,355 2009 17,832 2010 Source: Office for National Statistics, Census 2011, April 2013 Updates 4.0 Economic performance – Gross value added at current prices by industry group In Derby, production made up the largest percentage share of the total GVA in Derby (30.5%). Between 1998 and 2010, the GVA of this industry group increased at an average annual rate of 1.1%. The second largest industry group in 2010 was Public administration; education; health, accounting for 21.1% of the total GVA for Derby. Between 1998 and 2010, the GVA of this industry group increased at an average annual rate of 6.9%. The financial and insurance activities sector showed the largest percentage increase between 1998 and 2010 with an average annual change of 8.2%. Page | 5 Production and construction GVA has remained little changed between 1998 and 2010, increasing by 1.1% and 1.2% respectively. Only Agriculture, forestry and fishing show negative growth, and these have very little significance within the city economy. Page | 6 Table 4.0.1 – City GVA by Industry Group 1998-2004 1998 Agriculture, forestry and fishing Production Construction Distribution; transport; accommodation and food Information and communication Financial and insurance activities Real estate activities Business service activities Public administration; education; health Other services and household activities 1999 2000 3 4 3 1,519 1,611 1,681 214 231 245 541 567 577 101 118 139 106 101 94 260 266 274 342 340 337 537 603 651 82 93 98 2001 2002 2003 £ million 3 3 3 1,706 1,683 1,632 263 272 296 602 633 678 157 173 191 105 115 137 287 320 361 355 379 411 695 737 808 101 107 116 2004 3 1,583 321 717 206 158 382 435 867 123 Source: Office for National Statistics, Census 2011, April 2013 Update Table 4.0.2 – City GVA by Industry Group 2005-2010 Agriculture, forestry and fishing Production Construction Distribution; transport; accommodation and food Information and communication Financial and insurance activities Real estate activities Business service activities Public administration; education; health Other services and household activities 2005 2006 2 1,594 331 748 210 202 406 463 932 130 2 1,658 347 792 212 221 430 481 1,002 133 Source: Office for National Statistics, Census 2011, April 2013 Update Page | 7 2007 2008 £ million 3 3 1,700 1,665 353 335 825 821 221 229 249 277 497 510 485 470 1,073 1,138 135 139 2009 2010 3 1,630 272 801 225 299 443 451 1,183 141 2 1,729 246 836 236 273 533 474 1,199 148 Average annual change 19982010 (%) -3.3 1.1 1.2 3.7 7.3 8.2 6.2 2.8 6.9 5 Figure 4.0.2 - City GVA change over time at current basic prices by industry 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 Agriculture, forestry and fishing Production Construction Distribution; Information and Financial and transport; communication insurance accommodation activities and food Real estate activities 82 101 123 135 148 537 695 342 355 435 485 474 260 287 382 497 533 106 105 158 249 273 101 157 206 221 236 214 263 321 353 246 541 602 717 825 836 867 1,073 1,199 1,519 1,706 1,583 1,700 1,729 £ million Business Public Other services service activities administration; and household education; activities health Source: Office for National Statistics, Census 2011, April 2013 Update Figures 4.0.3 and 4.0.4 illustrate the changes in the share of GVA by industry group in Derby between 1998 and 2010. One of the most notable changes is the decrease in GVA from production from 41% to 31%. It is clear that GVA from other industry sectors has grown to compensate for the reduction in production GVA share. The industry showing the most significant GVA growth is construction 14% to 21%. The majority of other industry sectors are showing smaller increases in their GVA share. Page | 8 Figure 4.0.3 - Share of GVA by industry group, Derby 1998 2% Figure 4.0.4 - Share of GVA by industry group, Derby 2010 0% 0% 3% 14% 21% 31% 9% 41% 8% 7% 4% 3% 9% 3% 15% 5% 6% Agriculture, forestry and fishing Production Construction Distribution, transport, accommodation and food Information and communication Financial and insurance activities Real estate activities Business service activities Public administration; education; health Source: Office for National Statistics, Census 2011, April 2013 Update 15% 4% Agriculture, forestry and fishing Production Construction Distribution; transport; accommodation and food Information and communication Financial and insurance activities Real estate activities Business service activities Public administration; education; health Source: Office for National Statistics, Census 2011, April 2013 Update Page | 9 Table 4.0.3 illustrates that Derby has a significant number of industry categories with GVA outperforming the East Midlands and England, of particular note are: production (30.5%), information and communication (4.2%), real estate activities (9.4%) and public administration and health (21.1%). Those industry groups in Derby where GVA as a percentage of total GVA is significantly lower than the East Midlands and England are the distribution, and construction categories and to a lesser degree business service activities. Table 4.0.3 - GVA by industry at current basic prices as a percentage of total GVA East Derby Midlands England Agriculture, forestry and finishing 0.0 1.2 1 Production 30.5 20.9 14 Construction 4.3 7.1 6 Distribution; transport; accommodation and food 14.7 21.7 19 Information and communication 4.2 3.5 6 Financial and insurance activities 4.8 4.3 10 Real estate activities 9.4 7.6 8 Business service activities 8.4 9.9 12 Public administration; education; health 21.1 20.4 20 Other services and household activities 2.6 3.4 4 Source: Office for National Statistics, Census 2011, April 2013 Update Figure 4.5 shows GVA by industry as a percentage of the total GVA in Derby the East Midlands and England. Despite its share of GVA declining since 1998 production in Derby 30.5% is still higher than in the East Midlands 20.9% and England 13.6% showing that it is the most significant industry sector in the city. Page | 10 Figure 4.0.5 - Shares of GVA by industry as a percentage of the total GVA in the NUTS 3 area, 2010 Percentage 100% 2.6 3.4 3.5 Other services and household activities 90% 21.1 19.5 20.4 Public administration; health; education 80% Business service activities 70% 8.4 40% 30% 12.4 Real Estate activities 9.4 7.6 4.8 4.3 3.5 60% 50% 9.9 4.2 14.7 8.3 Financial and insurance activities 10.1 Information and communication 6.2 Distribution; transport; accommodation and food 21.7 Construction 4.3 19.4 7.1 Production 20% 6.4 30.5 20.9 10% 13.6 0% 0 1.2 0.6 Derby East Midlands England Page | 11 Agriculture, forestry and fishing 5.0. Gross disposable household income (GDHI) per head at current prices In 2011, the GDHI in Derby was £12,479, 22.2% below the UK average, while the East Midlands region was 9.2% below the UK average. Other features of GDHI in Derby include: GDHI per head in 2011 was further below the UK average than in 1998 where it was 11.7% below the UK average. In 1998 Derby had a GDHI of 11.7% compared to 22.2% in 2011 this shows a downturn over time of 10.5%. The average annual GDHI increase in Derby 2.6% for the period 1998 to 2011 was lower than both the East Midlands and England with 3.5%. Table 5.0.1 - Gross disposable household income (GDHI) per head at current prices 1998 - 2004 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 £ per head Derby 8975.0 9105.0 9258.0 9781.0 10337.0 East Midlands 9325.0 9651.0 10054.0 10692.0 11140.0 England 10371.0 10767.0 11328.0 12012.0 12385.0 2003 2004 10839.0 11806.0 11115.0 12166.0 12892.0 13254.0 Source: Office for National Statistics, Census 2011, April 2013 Update Table 5.0.2 - Gross disposable household income (GDHI) per head at current prices 2005 - 2011 2005 2006 2007 2008 Derby East Midlands 11465.0 12527.0 11828.0 12881.0 11567.0 13154.0 2009 £ per head 11709.0 12107.0 13480.0 13727.0 England 13647.0 14171.0 14505.0 14926.0 Source: Office for National Statistics, Census 2011, April 2013 Update Page | 12 15328.0 2010 2011 Average annual change 12269.0 14177.0 12479.0 14561.0 2.6 3.5 15831.0 16251.0 3.5 Table 5.0.1 - GDHI per head at current prices £ per head England East Midlands Derby 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: Office for National Statistics, Census 2011, April 2013 Update Page | 13 Appendix Gross value added (GVA) at market prices is output at market prices minus intermediate consumption purchaser prices; it is a balancing item of the national accounts production account. GVA at basic prices is output at basic prices minus intermediate consumption at purchaser prices. The basic price is the amount receivable by the producer from the purchaser for a unit of a product minus any tax on the product plus any subsidy on the product. GVA by industry sector is the sum of GVA at basic prices over all industries plus taxes on products minus subsidies on products gives gross domestic product. Gross value added of the total economy usually accounts for more than 90 % of GDP. Gross disposable household income (GDHI) is the amount of money that individuals (i.e. the household sector) have available for spending or saving. This is money left after expenditure associated with income, e.g. taxes and social contributions, property ownership and provision for future pension income. It is calculated gross of any deductions for capital consumption. The household sector covers people living in traditional households as well as those living in institutions. The latter includes people living in retirement homes and prisons. The sector includes sole trader enterprises and non-profit institutions serving households. GVA by industry group refers to the contribution to gross value added by each industrial groups. The NUTS classification (Nomenclature of territorial units for statistics) is a hierarchical system for dividing up the economic territory of the EU for the purpose of: The collection, development and harmonisation of EU regional statistics. Socio-economic analyses of the regions. o NUTS 1: major socio-economic regions o NUTS 2: basic regions for the application of regional policies o NUTS 3: small regions for specific diagnoses The NUTS 3 hierarchy refers to the smallest NUTS geographical areas and is made up of counties and groups of unitary authorities. NUTS 3 enables more detailed analysis to be made of economic conditions within specific areas. e Page | 14