Economic and Commercial Division
1 December 2015
ABARES AUSTRALIAN CROP REPORT
Summary
The ABARES forecast for South Australia’s
2015–16 winter crop production has been
revised downward to 7.2 million tonnes, 5.3%
below the five year average and down 5.1% (or
0.4 million tonnes) from the 2014–15 season,
which was the third largest on record.
National winter crop production in 2015–16 is
estimated to be 39.1 million tonnes,4.9% below
the five year average but up 1.8% (or 0.7 million
tonnes) on 2014–15.
Seasonal conditions for South Australia were
unfavourable in September and October with
below average rainfall, above average
temperatures and declining soil moisture. As a
result, yields are forecast to be adversely
affected. In addition, fires in the mid-north of
South Australia in late November will result in
harvest delays and loss of production in the
region.
South Australia
Unfavourable seasonal conditions in September
and October, a critical time for crop development,
has adversely affected likely yields for 2015–16
winter crops.
The total area planted to winter crops is forecast
to rise by 1.5% in 2015-16 to just over 4 million
hectares. This reflects a rise in the area planted to
cereals and pulses, which is expected to be
largely offset by a reduction in the area planted to
canola.
Wheat production in 2015-16 is forecast to fall by
5.9% to 4.4 million tonnes, reflecting a 6.3% fall in
the yield.
Barley production is forecast to fall by 2.6% to 1.9
million tonnes, reflecting a 9.4% decrease in the
yield.
Canola production is forecast to fall by 9.8% to
296,000 tonnes, reflecting a 21% fall in the area
planted in spite of an increased yield.
Further Analysis
Australia
As a result of generally unfavourable seasonal
conditions in most cropping regions, the national
winter crop production forecast for 2015-16 has
been downwardly revised. A small rise in
production is nonetheless forecast but significant
variation exists between the states.
Total winter crop production is forecast to rise by
1.8% in 2015–16 to 39.1 million tonnes driven by
substantial production increases in Queensland
(up 35%) and New South Wales (up 13%).
Declines are forecast for Victoria (down 11%) and
South Australia (down 5.1%) while Western
Australian production is forecast to be largely
unchanged.
The total area planted to winter crops is forecast
to be 1.3% higher in 2015-16 reflecting an
estimated increase in the area planted to barley,
oats and pulses partially offset by a decline in the
area planted to canola and wheat.
Note: State winter crops include wheat, barley, oats, lupins, canola,
field peas, chickpeas, faba beans, and lentils. Australian winter crops
also include triticale, linseed, safflower and vetch.
Next release of ABARES Crop Report is 9 February 2016