Economic and Commercial Division
8 September 2015
ABARES AUSTRALIAN CROP REPORT
Summary
The ABARES forecast for South Australia’s
2015–16 winter crop production has been
revised upward by 5.5% since June to 7.5
million tonnes, 0.7% below the five year
average and down 0.5% (or 0.04 million
tonnes) from the 2014–15 season, which was
the third largest on record.
National winter crop production in 2015–16 is
estimated to be 41.4 million tonnes, 0.7% above
the five year average and up 7.9% (or 3.0 million
tonnes) on 2014–15.
According to the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM)
an El Niño event persists in the tropical Pacific
Ocean and the Indian Ocean is characterised
by record warm sea surface temperatures. The
BoM states that this combination means that
chances of a wetter or drier than average three
months in the eastern half of the country are
roughly equal and chances of above average
rainfall across Western Australia and South
Australia are greater than 60%.
Further Analysis
South Australia
Following unfavourable seasonal conditions in
early winter, rainfall in August improved the
outlook for 2015–16 winter crops in South
Australia.
The total area planted to winter crops is forecast
to rise by 1.2% in 2015-16 to around 4 million
hectares. This reflects a rise in the area planted
to cereals and pulses, which is expected to be
largely offset by a reduction in the area planted
to canola.
Wheat production in 2015-16 is forecast to fall
by 2.6% to 4.5 million tonnes, reflecting a 3.0%
fall in the yield.
Barley production is forecast to increase by
3.6% to 2.0 million tonnes, reflecting a 7.5%
increase in the area planted to barley, with the
average yield forecast to fall by 3.6% to 2.1
tonnes a hectare.
Canola production is forecast to fall by 14% to
281,000 tonnes, reflecting a 21% fall in the area
planted—a response by producers to relatively
unfavourable returns from growing canola
compared with barley and pulse crops.
Australia
As a result of the generally favourable seasonal
conditions over winter and the favourable
outlook for spring rainfall, forecast winter crop
production in 2015–16 has been revised up from
the June 2015 forecast.
Total winter crop production is forecast to rise by
7.9% in 2015–16 to 41.4 million tonnes as a
result of forecast production increases in
Western Australia, New South Wales,
Queensland and Victoria. Winter crop
production is expect to remain largely
unchanged in South Australia, falling by just
0.5%.
The total area planted to winter crops is forecast
to be 1.2% higher in 2015-16. A decline in the
area planted to canola is forecast while the area
planted to wheat is expected to be similar to the
previous year. There has been an estimated
increase in the area planted to barley, oats and
pulses.
12
Winter Crop Production
(Million Tonnes)
10
120
100
South Australia (LHS)
8
80
6
60
4
40
Australia (RHS)
2
20
0
0
Note: State winter crops include wheat, barley, oats, lupins, canola,
field peas, chickpeas, faba beans, and lentils. Australian winter
crops also include triticale, linseed, safflower and vetch.
Next release of ABARES Crop Report is 1 December 2015