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The potential uptake of domestic woodfuel heating systems and its
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contribution to tackling climate change: a case study from the North East
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Scotland
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Diana Feliciano a , Bill Slee b, Pete Smith c
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a
Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, School of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, 23
St Machar Drive, Aberdeen, AB24 3UU, Scotland, UK. E-mail: diana.feliciano@abdn.ac.uk (D. Feliciano).
Corresponding author. Phone: +44(0) 1224273810 Fax: +44 (0)1224 272703
b
The
James
Hutton
Institute,
Craigiebuckler,
Aberdeen,
AB15
8QH,
Scotland,
UK.
E-mail:
bill.slee@hutton.ac.uk
c
Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, School of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, 23
St Machar Drive, Aberdeen, AB24 3UU, Scotland, UK. E-mail: pete.smith@abdn.ac.uk
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Abstract
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This study explores the scope for increasing the contribution of woody biomass for private
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space and water heating in the North East Scotland, which corresponds to the administrative
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districts of Aberdeen, Aberdeenshire and Moray. It assesses the potential benefits in terms of
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carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions reduction of a partial shift from non-renewable heat sources
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to wood energy. Woody biomass is an interesting case to study because it is a source of
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renewable energy that directly depends on the rural land use sector. At the same time woody
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biomass can play an important role in fuel poverty reduction. North East Scotland has good
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potential for woody biomass production but the trade-off between food security and energy
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production has to be taken into account if more woodland creation is sought. Forests occupy
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19% of the land area, and a number of towns and villages are close to extensive forested
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areas. North East Scotland administrative districts have supported the development of wood
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energy through the development of woodfuel-based public service heating and institutional
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structures are broadly conducive. Fuel poverty and greenhouse gas emissions from space and
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water heating could be drastically reduced thought the wide adoption of heating systems in
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the region. However, large up-front capital costs, delays in establishing support systems, and
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the nature of support offered contribute to the likely failure to deliver policy targets such as
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for reduced fuel poverty and CO2 emissions reduction.
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Keywords: Woodfuel, space and water heating, fuel poverty, CO2 emissions, North East
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Scotland
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1. Introduction
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Burning fossil-fuel to produce energy is the main human activity contributing to greenhouse
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gas (GHG) emissions, specifically carbon dioxide (CO2), into the atmosphere which
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consequently leads to climate change (IPCC, 2013). Replacing fossil fuels with energy
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produced from renewable sources, such as biomass, can significantly decrease the current
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levels of GHG emissions. Because of this, renewable energy has been regarded as highly
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important for the future of our society (Blaschke et al., 2013). The need to make increasing
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use of renewable energy sources is reflected by policies in many parts of the world, including
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Scotland. In 2009, the Climate Change (Scotland) Act created a statutory framework for
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GHG emissions reduction, by setting an interim 42% reduction target for 2020 and an 80%
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reduction target for 2050 (Scottish Government, 2009a). One option to deliver significant
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carbon savings is the production of heat from renewable energy (Scottish Government,
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2009b). Renewable heat can be produced with solar, geothermal, heat pumps or biomass
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technologies. According to Agostini et al. (2013), forest biomass, or woodfuel, is one of the
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most promising renewable resources in terms of climate mitigation potential, and thus it is
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likely to be widely exploited in the transport and energy sector. In 2008, biomass as a
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renewable energy (RE) source provided about 10.2% (50.3 EJ) of global total primary energy
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supply (TPES) (Chen et al., 2014). Examples of biomass sources are wood, energy crops
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such as short-rotation coppice and short-rotation forestry, waste and agricultural residues
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such as straw (Slade et al., 2011). These sources are normally classified in three groups:
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primary residues; secondary and tertiary residues and biomass specifically produced for
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energy production. The mix will vary greatly depending on region, markets, processing
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capacity etc., but forestry can provide wood raw material in all three categories. Nordic
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countries (with which comparison is frequently made in Scotland) use far more wood for
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heating than the United Kingdom and in such countries the greater use of wood energy has
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been a defining feature of their attempts to decarbonise their heating systems (Econ Pöyry,
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2008). Developments relating to the use of wood waste have a relatively high potential
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(Karjalainen et al., 2004). However, the high costs and complexity of the logistics and supply
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chain management are limiting factors for the successful utilisation of waste biomass
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(Iakovou et al., 2010).
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The use of woody biomass as a source of renewable energy has repercussions on the
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ruralland use sector where it contributes to above-ground and soil carbon sequestration during
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the plant’s growth, and consequently mitigation of GHG emissions within the sector. It also
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contributes to GHG emissions mitigation in the energy sector since it displaces fossil fuels
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with high carbon content by a low-carbon emission fuel, the biomass. The Land Use Strategy
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for Scotland considers renewable energy a key resource in Scotland and proposes a new
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strategic approach where land use decisions (agriculture, forestry or renewable energy) are
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considered holistically and not in isolation (Scottish Government, 2011a).
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The production of renewable heat from woodfuel has also been advocated as a strategy to
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confront the rise of energy prices, to support energy security and to address fuel poverty
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(Slade, et al., 2011; Lund, 2010; McKay, 2003; SDC, 2005). A household is said to be in fuel
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poverty if it needs to spend 10% or more of its income on fuel to meet its energy needs
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(Baker et al., 2004). High oil and gas prices have underlined Europe’s increasing dependency
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on imported energy and this encouraged the European Union to respond with a range of
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measures to reduce energy imports, including support for the use of biomass (Scottish
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Executive, 2007a). Rising energy costs have pushed many consumers to fuel poverty,
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especially those not connected to the gas grid (Hills, 2012). According to Baker (2011), in
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Scotland, about 30% of the households are in fuel poverty, and 34% of these are not on the
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gas grid. Abundant resources of woodfuel at local level in some rural areas may provide a
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sustainable source of energy if the woodlands from which woodfuel is extracted will be
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replanted. In addition, the extensive use of wood fuel contributes to a decrease in the
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dependence on fossil fuels which price is regulated by the global market price. The increase
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in timber ready to harvest may contribute to future capacity of the forest sector to produce
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energy.
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Scottish houses generally have relatively poor insulation and consequently relatively high
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heating costs and high GHG emissions due to oil consumption, and this contributes both to
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high levels of fuel poverty and climate change (IPA, 2009). A cost-effective way of reducing
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emissions from heating is to improve energy efficiency of households through better
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insulation but retrofitting is often rather challenging because of house design. The
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acceleration of renewable heating distribution in the domestic sector was the objective of
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Renewable Heat Incentive (RHI) (Department of Energy & Climate Change, 2010). The RHI
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prioritises the support of biomass boilers for households off the gas grid since these areas are
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more prone to fuel poverty and higher GHG emissions due to the use of expensive heating
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fuels with high-carbon content such as heating oil (Scottish Government, 2008). According to
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Baker (2011), households depending on other fuels than gas for heating have much lower
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energy efficiency standards than households heated on gas.
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According to the Sustainable Development Commission (SDC, 2005), small to medium-scale
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woodfuel heating could make a significant contribution to climate change mitigation in
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Scotland, given the established forest culture, a supply of low grade wood, together with a
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high demand for heat and high fuel prices, especially in rural areas. The Forum for
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Renewable Energy Development in Scotland (FREDS) considers that market penetration of
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renewable heat must reach the private sector to deliver significant renewable heat capacity
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(Scottish Government, 2008). There has been substantial policy rhetoric for the use of
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renewable heat from woodfuel in Scotland, but several factors such as high upfront capital
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costs or the poorly developed supply chain have slowed down the uptake in the domestic
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sector and this may create a gap between political ambitions and the reality of expanded
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woodfuel use. In Scotland, about one third of primary energy consumption is for heating
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purposes (Scottish Executive, 2007a), the majority of which is derived from non-renewable
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sources. Over 90% of the renewable heat is generated from woodfuel, although compared to
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many European countries, the overall level of woodfuel use is very low (Scottish
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Government, 2011b). In Denmark, the total use of biomass resources for energy purposes
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(including heat, electricity and transportation) make up around 70% of the consumption of
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renewable energy with the use of firewood, wood pellets and chips steadily increasing during
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the past years. In Finland, in 2004, about 20% of the total consumption of primary energy
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was based on wood, and in Sweden, the bioenergy originated from the forestry sector
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accounted for approximately 90% of the bioenergy used (Econ Pöyry, 2008).
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North East Scotland, which includes the administrative districts of Aberdeenshire, Aberdeen
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City and Moray, was the study region chosen to explore the critical factors affecting domestic
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renewable heat uptake because forest resources to produce woodfuel are abundant, some of
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the coldest places in the UK are in this region, and around 60% of the households are in rural
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areas. In addition, Aberdeenshire aspires to become carbon neutral by 2030 (SAC, 2008).
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Previous studies have given an overview of different governmental strategies to stimulate the
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use of renewable energy sources (Agostini et al., 2013, Ericsson et al., 2004; Hillring, 1998)
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and presented a framework for the understanding of barriers and supporting factors behind
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wood energy technology implementation and commercialisation (Roos et al., 1999). This
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study focuses on the production of renewable heat from woody biomass. It considers woody
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biomass a land-based option for fuel poverty reduction and GHG emissions mitigation since
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it directly depends on rural land uses, primarily, but not exclusively, forestry. A method to
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estimate CO2 emissions from domestic space and water heating in North East Scotland for
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different potential scenarios of woodfuel uptake is suggested. The study also estimates the
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availability of wood to produce woodfuel in the region and identifies the barriers (e.g.
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economic, education, planning) to the expansion of the woodfuel market for space and water
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heating purposes.
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2. Data and methods
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2.1 Generating scenarios for the uptake of renewable heat in the domestic
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sector by 2021
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Three scenarios (business-as-usual, scenario A and scenario B) for renewable heat uptake in
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the domestic sector were generated using several sources of data:
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a) The General Register Office for Scotland for data on household projections in North
East Scotland;
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b) The IPA Energy and Water Economics report on Renewable Heat in Scotland: 2020
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Vision to Scottish Renewables (IPA, 2009) for the Scottish housing stock in 2011,
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and;
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c) The report Off-gas consumers (Baker, 2011) for the main heating fuel by dwelling
type in Scotland and the main heating fuel in North East Scotland.
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In the business-as-usual scenario (BAU) it was considered that no existing or projected
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houses would adopt woodfuel systems. Scenario A considered that detached and semi-
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detached houses off the gas grid and 100% of the new houses built until 2021 would adopt
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woodfuel systems. Scenario B considered that detached and semi-detached houses off the gas
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grid and 15% of the new houses built until 2021 would adopt woodfuel systems. According
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to the Department of Energy & Climate Change (2009), domestic energy consumption in the
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UK is, on average, 1.9 tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) per year and per household (Department
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of Energy & Climate Change, 2009). About 85% of this value (1.6 toe ≈ 20 MWh) is used for
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space and water heating (Baker, 2011; Departament of Energy & Climate Change, 2009). It is
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likely that domestic energy intensity for space and water heating is higher than this value in
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North East Scotland since some parts of this region are the coolest parts of the UK. Total
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domestic energy intensity for space and water heating in North East Scotland was obtained by
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multiplying the domestic energy intensity by the number of existing and projected households
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for the period 2011-2021. The year 2021 was chosen as the limit for data collection because
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the first interim GHG emissions reduction target set by the Climate Change (Scotland) Act
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2009 is 2020.
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To estimate the potential number of houses that could install woodfuel systems in North East
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Scotland by 2021, several assumptions were considered, taken into account several sources of
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information.
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1- The gas-grid only covers Aberdeen City and the east coast south of Aberdeen City
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with most villages and rural areas in Aberdeenshire and Moray being off-gas grid
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(SDC, 2005). A report on off-gas consumers (Baker, 2011) revealed that in North East
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Scotland around 68% of the households are on mains gas and the remaining 32% on
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other fuel types (1.1% on Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) and bottled gas, 8.7% on
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heating oil, 1% on solid fuel, 20.7% on electric heating and 0.5 % in communal
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heating schemes. As gas is a popular, clean and convenient source of energy, and it
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has previously been cheaper than other heating fuels, it was assumed that existing
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houses heated by gas will be less likely to retrofit their heating systems with woodfuel
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boiler systems than those on LPG and bottled gas, heating oil, solid fuel and electric
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heating.
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2- Space constraints can be a barrier to the installation of woodfuel boilers, especially in
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existing flats and terraced houses. According to Baker (2011), 82% of high rise
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purpose built flats in Scotland are heated by electricity and about 83% of the terraced
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houses are heated by gas. Detached houses, which are free-standing residential
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buildings, and semi-detached houses, which consist of a pair of similar houses built
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side by side and sharing a parting wall, are not so constrained in terms of space. It was
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assumed that existing detached and semi-detached houses that are not heated by gas
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are more likely to retrofit their heating systems with woodfuel boilers because there is
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enough room to install woodfuel boilers and to store the woodfuel needed for their
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heat requirements. According to IPA (2009), 21% of Scottish houses were detached
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and 23% were semi-detached houses. Around 64% of the detached houses that are not
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heated by gas rely on oil for heating purposes and about 56% and 30% of the semi-
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detached houses that are not heated by gas rely on electricity and oil, respectively
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(Baker, 2011).
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3- The Scottish Planning Policy 6 (SPP6) anticipates that 15% of the energy
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requirements in large new developments with a cumulative floor space over 500 m2 is
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to come from renewable technologies (Scottish Executive, 2007b). It was assumed
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that all types of new houses (flats, detached, semi-detached, terraced) are less
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constrained to install woodfuel boilers because this can be planned beforehand.
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2.2 Estimation of CO2 emission savings due to the use of woodfuel systems for
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domestic space and water heating
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Unlike fossil fuel combustion which takes carbon that was locked away underground over
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millions of years (e.g. coal, crude oil and gas) and releases it back to the atmosphere in the
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form of CO2 emissions, wood fuel is a renewable, low-carbon source of energy. Wood fuel is
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produced from harvested timber that has necessarily sequestered atmospheric carbon dioxide
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(CO2) while it was growing, emits CO2 back into the atmosphere when the woodfuel is burnt
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to produce energy, and sequesters CO2 when trees are planted again (Lattimore et al., 2009).
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Wood fuel products are a fossil-fuel free source of energy but may not necessarily be
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considered as an entirely carbon-neutral source because there are additional factors to take
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into account, namely, the net changes in the carbon stored in trees, litter and soil, the fossil
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fuels used in the harvesting, transport and processing operations, temporary variations in
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carbon stocks and fluxes and the complete life-cycle analysis of products and systems used in
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extraction, processing and delivery (Millar, 2004). Due to data limitations, GHG emissions
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from woodfuel extraction, processing and delivery were not taken into account in this study.
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Therefore, only CO2 emission savings due to the replacement of fossil fuels as a source of
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domestic space and water heating by woodfuel were estimated.
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Data used to estimate CO2 emission savings from woodfuel heating systems in domestic
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dwellings in North East Scotland by 2021 for scenarios BAU, A and B included:
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a) Carbon dioxide emissions factors per fuel type (heating oil, natural gas, electricity,
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and wood pellets) to heat a typical house during a year (20,000 kWh.yr-1) (Table 1).
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Fossil fuel emission factors were provided by the Biomass Energy Centre website1.
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b) The potential number of houses that would adopt woodfuel systems by 2021, which
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was drawn from the assumptions 1,2 (see section 2.1), and;
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c) The main fuel used by dwelling type (flats, terraced, detached and semi-detached
houses) ‘off gas’ (Baker, 2011).
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In Scotland, existing flats, terraced houses and semi-detached houses ‘off gas’ are mainly
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heated by electricity and detached houses ‘off gas’ are mainly heated by heating oil (Baker,
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2011). The same was assumed for North East Scotland.
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Table 1 Carbon dioxide emissions to heat a typical house in the UK (20,000 kWh.yr-1)
Fuel type
Electricity
Hard coal
Heating oil
LPG
Natural gas
Wood chips
Wood pellets
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KgCO2yr-1
10,600
9,680
7,000
6,460
5,400
300
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Source: Biomass Energy Centre1
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2.3 Estimation of small round wood (diameter ≤14 cm) available to produce
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woodfuel
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One of North East Scotland’s (Aberdeen City and Shire, Moray) strengths lies in its forest
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resources which suggest significant potential for renewable heat production (Moray
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Community Planning Partnership, 2009; Aberdeenshire Council, 2004). In addition, the
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proximity of forest resources, mostly within a 15 mile radius of significant settlements, is
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seen as a supporting factor for woodfuel businesses in North East Scotland, given the lower
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transportation costs. The Forest District Strategic Plan for Moray and Aberdeenshire
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http://www.biomassenergycentre.org.uk/portal/page?_pageid=73,1&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL
accessed, 10/10/2013).
(last
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considers the expansion in lowland broadleaved woodlands as a further development of an
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appropriately scaled woodfuel and biomass market (Forestry Commission Scotland, 2009).
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The Moray Community Plan 2012-2015 (Moray Community Partnership, 2012) emphasises
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that capitalising the energy sector is a priority and points out that Moray benefits from
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established engineering capacity and expertise to support Scotland’s development of a world-
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leading and diversified renewable energy sector.
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In Scotland, the main source of woodfuel is small roundwood from coniferous2 trees with
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diameter (TDC) ≤14 cm. Mackay et al. (2008) estimated that only about 10% of this wood
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has no market and is immediately available for wood energy. Small round wood from
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thinning and felling available for woodfuel production can be derived from the sum of
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forecast yearly thinning and felling volumes in public and private forests. The Forestry
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Commission Scotland (FCS) and the Forest Enterprise provide data on the average annual
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thinning plus felling volumes in cubic meters over bark for several coniferous and
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broadleaved species from public (FCS) and private forests. Data cover the periods 2006-2099
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for public forests (FCS) and 2009-2036 for private forests. The volume of wood is provided
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for the following TDC ranges:
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Public forests (FCS): 0-7 cm, 7-14 cm, 14-16 cm, 16-18 cm and 18 -40 cm
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Private forests: 7-14 cm, 14-16 cm, 16-18 cm and 18 -40 cm.
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In the first instance and to avoid competition with other markets for timber it was assumed
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that the total volume available to produce woodfuel would be only 10% of the forecast
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freshly thinned and felling volumes of conifers with diameter ≤ 14 cm. The conversion of
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volume (m3) of fresh felled and thinned conifers into weight (kg) used the conversion factor
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1m3 over bark = 1.06 metric ton under bark (1006 kg).
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In Scotland, woodfuel grants under the Renewable Heat Incentive are for wood chip and
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wood pellet boilers. Wood burning stoves and open fires fuelled with logs are disregarded by
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the Renewable Heat Incentive (RHI) (Renewable Energy Forum, 2010). Wood pellets are
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made of dry compressed wood by-products (e.g. sawdust, wood shavings, and whole tree
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removals) and are mainly suitable for domestic use and small to medium scale district
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heating. Woodchips are small fragments of timber mechanically chipped by machine, and are
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Scots pine, Corsican pine, Lodgepole pine, Sitka spruce, Norway spruce, Douglas fir, Larches, other conifers.
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widely used by businesses, communities and public sector organisations with larger burners.
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As woodpellets is the type of fuel most suitable for domestic uses, it was assumed that
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adopted boilers would be woodpellet boilers. The moisture content of woodpellets and
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woodchips has to be taken into account when estimating the wood available to produce these
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products. Woodpellets have lower moisture content (≈10%) than woodchips (≈30%). The
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moisture content of conifers, the type of trees mostly used to produce woodfuel in North East
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Scotland, is 60%, this meaning that in 1 ton of freshly felled or thinned conifers, only 40%
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(0.4 tons) is oven dried wood (Forestry Commission, 2006).
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To estimate the weight of woodpellets needed to satisfy the potential requirement of
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renewable heat from woodfuel, it was assumed that the average energy consumption to heat a
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typical house in the UK (20,000 KWh yr-1)3 will be fairly constant until 2021. The energy
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content of 650 kg of pellets is 3,055 KWh (1kg=4.7KWh)4.
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3. Results
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3.1 Potential CO2 emissions reduction of woodpellet boilers adoption for
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domestic space and water heating
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In North East Scotland, the domestic energy consumption for space and water heating for
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houses built during the period 2011-2021 is projected to continuously increase from 5,135 x
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106 MWh5 in 2011 to 6,054 x 106 MWh in 2021 as a consequence of the increase in the
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number of houses during this period.
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Figure 1 presents the amount of carbon dioxide emissions (ktCO2) from space and water
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heating from old and new houses by 2021 if no woodfuel boilers were adopted (BAU). Figure
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2 presents CO2 emissions from space and water heating if, by 2021, existing detached and
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semi-detached houses ‘off gas’ grid would retrofit and adopt woodfuel boilers, and all new
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houses built between 2011 and 2021 would install woodfuel boilers. Figure 3 presents CO2
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emissions from space and water heating by 2021 if existing detached and semi-detached
3
http://www.biomassenergycentre.org.uk/portal/page?_pageid=75,163182&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL
(last accessed 13/09/12).
4
http://www.sustaburn.co.uk/ (last accessed 30/10/2013)
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1 toe=11,666 KW-h. Source: General Register Office for Scotland for existing and projected houses between
2011 and 2031.
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houses ‘off gas’ grid would retrofit and adopt woodpellet boilers, but only 15% of the new
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houses built between 2011 and 2021 would install woodpellet boilers.
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Flats
34%
30,638 flats
Main fuel when off
gas: Electricity
CO2 emissions:
325 ktCO2yr-1
Terraced
20%
18,022 terraced
houses
Main fuel when off
gas: Electricity
CO2 emissions:
191 ktCO2yr-1
Detached
21%
18,924 detached
houses
Main fuel when off
gas: Heating oil
CO2 emissions:
132 ktCO2yr-1
Semi-detached
23%
20,726 semidetached houses
Main fuel when off
gas: Electricity
CO2 emissions:
220 ktCO2yr-1
174,583 houses
Gas
CO2 emissions:
1034 ktCO2yr-1
Off gas
32%
Housing stock in
North East
Scotland in 2021
No= 281,600
On gas
68%
Figure 1 Business as usual scenario – Carbon dioxide emissions from space and water heating in 2021 if new houses and detached and
semi-detached houses do not adopt woodpellet boilers
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Off gas
32%
Existing houses
in 2012
No= 256,740
Housing stock
in North East
Scotland
27,933 flats
Electricity - Do
not install
woodfuel
boilers
CO2 emissions:
296 ktCO2yr-1
Terraced
20%
16,431 terraced
houses
Electricity - Do
not install
woodfuel
boilers
CO2 emissions:
174 ktCO2yr-1
Detached
21%
17,253
detached
houses
Install
woodpellet
boilers
CO2 emissions:
5.2 ktCO2yr-1
Semi-detached
23%
18,896 semidetached
houses
Install
woodpellet
boilers
CO2 emissions:
5.7 ktCO2yr-1
174,583 houses
Gas - Do not
install woodfuel
boilers
CO2 emissions:
95 ktCO2yr-1
Flats
34%
On gas
68%
New houses
houses in 2021
No=24,860
100% install
woodpellet
boilers
24,860 houses
CO2 emissions:
7.5 ktCO2yr-1
Figure 2 Scenario A - Carbon dioxide emissions from space and water heating in 2021 if 100% of new houses adopt woodpellet boilers
and 100% of the existing detached and semi-detached houses adopt woodpellet boilers
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Off gas
32%
Existing houses
in 2012
No= 256,740
27,933 flats
Electricity - Do
not install
woodfuel
boilers
CO2 emissions:
296 ktCO2yr-1
Terraced
20%
16,431 terraced
houses
Electricity - Do
not install
woodfuel
boilers
CO2 emissions:
174 ktCO2yr-1
Detached
21%
17,253 detached
houses
Install
woodpellet
boilers
CO2 emissions:
5.2 ktCO2yr-1
Semi-detached
23%
18,896 semidetached
houses
Install
woodpellet
boilers
CO2 emissions:
5.7 ktCO2yr-1
174,583 houses
Gas - Do not
install woodfuel
boilers
CO2 emissions:
95 ktCO2yr-1
Off gas 32% 6,762 houses
Assuming all on
electricity1
On gas 68% 14,369 houses
Gas
Flats
34%
On gas
68%
Housing stock
in North East
Scotland
85% do not install
woodpellet boilers
New houses
houses in 2021
No=24,860
15% install
woodpellet
boilers
21,131 houses
3,729 houses
CO2 emissions:
72 ktCO2yr-1
CO2 emissions:
78 ktCO2yr-1
CO2 emissions:
7.5 ktCO2yr-1
Figure 3 Scenario B - Carbon dioxide emissions from space and water heating in 2021 if 15% of new houses adopt woodpellet boilers
and 100% of the existing detached and semi-detached houses adopt woodpellet boilers
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1
2
It can be seen that the adoption of wood pellet boilers in existing detached and semi-detached
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houses plus 15% adoption in new houses would contribute to a reduction of 30% in CO2
4
emissions in relation to the BAU scenario, by 2021. In the case of a 100% adoption of wood
5
pellet boilers in new built houses the reduction in CO2 emissions would fall about 80% in
6
relation to BAU (Figure 4). Carbon dioxide emissions resulting from the non-adoption of
7
woodfuel boilers (BAU) were estimated by taking into account that existing detached houses
8
‘off gas’ grid would remain on heating oil (most common fuel in this dwelling type) and
9
existing semi-detached, flats and terraced houses ‘off gas’ grid would remain on electricity
10
(most common fuel in this dwelling type).
11
12
Emissions from heating (ktCO2eq)
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
Emissions in 2021
(BAU)
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
Emissions in 2021 (15% Emissions in 2021
adoption in new
(100% adoption in new
houses)
houses)
Figure 4 Emissions from heating in North East Scotland by 2020 according to three
different scenarios (ktCO2eq)
3.2 Availability of wood resources: the supply side
Table 2 presents the forecast of freshly thinned wood from private and public forests (FCS) in
22
North East Scotland with diameter (TDC) 0-14 cm in the case of public forests and 7-14 cm
23
in the case of private forests. It was considered that only 10% of this wood would be
24
available to produce wood pellets. This volume is presented in Figure 5.
25
26
15
27
28
29
Table 2 Forecast of freshly thinned plus felled wood from Forestry Commission
Scotland (FCS) and private forests and wood available for woodfuel production
between 2011 and 2021 (in tonnes)
30
Years
Total wood (FCS TDC 014 cm + Private TDC 7-14
cm)
10% of the wood with
TDC<=14 cm
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
688,123
706,578
706,578
706,578
706,578
706,578
711,222
711,222
711,222
711,222
711,222
717,408
68,812
70,658
70,658
70,658
70,658
70,658
71,122
71,122
71,122
71,122
71,122
71,741
Amount of wood
with 10% moisture
content - to produce
woodpellets
34,406
35,329
35,329
35,329
35,329
35,329
35,561
35,561
35,561
35,561
35,561
35,870
Source: Forestry Commission Scotland
31
32
Taking into account the moisture content of wood pellets (≈10%), it was estimated that 1 ton
33
(SI unit) of freshly thinned plus felled wood could only produce 0.5 tonnes of woodpellets. In
34
addition, because different tree species have different energy contents 6, it was assumed that
35
conifers were the main source of raw material to produce woodpellets and conifers have
36
about 60% of Moisture Content (MC). Finally, it was also assumed that only 10% of the
37
forecasted small thinned plus felled wood (TDC ≥14cm) would go to the woodfuel market.
38
Therefore, in 2021, only 35,561 tonnes of woodpellets could be produced with the wood
39
available for the woodfuel market (Figure 5).
40
6
For energy contents of tree species see website:
http://www.biomassenergycentre.org.uk/portal/page?_pageid=75,163182&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL
16
80,000
70,000
60,000
tonnes
50,000
40,000
34,406
35,870
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
years
10% of the wood with TDC<=14 cm
Amount of wood with 10% moisture content - to produce woodpellets
41
42
43
44
Figure 5 Average thinned plus felled volume available for the wood fuel market and the
amount of woodpellets that could be produced with this wood (tons)
45
In the case of Scenario A (Figure 2), where 61,009 houses would install woodfuel boilers,
46
259,613 tonnes of woodpellets would be needed for space and water heating in 2021. In the
47
case of Scenario B (Figure 3) 39,878 houses would need 169,694 tonnes of woodpellets.
48
These estimates show that the woodpellets that could be produced with the available wood
49
(35,870 tonnes) would not be enough to meet the requirements of both scenarios A and B, in
50
2021. To overcome this situation more wood should be released from other markets to the
51
woodfuel market or poorer quality wood materials should be used. Poorer quality materials
52
such as stumps and roots not removed during forestry operations and with no market value
53
can potentially be accounted as significant contributors to woodfuel supply if technology to
54
use these products becomes available (Woodfuel Task Force, 2008). Branchwood is already
55
widely used in Sweden and Finland. Sawdust and wood shavings from sawmills are other
56
wood by-products that could be added to overall wood availability since these materials are
57
suitable for wood pellet production. Wood piles, abandoned in the borders of forest roads
58
near forest stands, are often seen in rural North East Scotland and are another potential source
59
of wood to produce woodfuel. The total amount of such wood waste is unknown and future
60
research is needed to assess this amount.
61
62
63
4. Discussion
17
64
In recent years, Scottish policy has been overtly supportive of renewable heat systems. There
65
has been an array of action plans, strategies and programmes recognising the contribution of
66
renewable heat to reduce GHG emissions. In North East Scotland, the promotion of
67
renewable heat systems in the domestic sector is highlighted in local strategies and single
68
outcome agreements, motivated by the abundant forest resources of the region. The
69
Aberdeenshire Council Renewable Energy Strategy (Aberdeenshire Council, 2004) asserts
70
that Aberdeenshire has considerable potential for the generation of heat from “renewable”
71
sources and that renewable energy is a necessary component of strategies to mitigate climate
72
change, address fuel poverty and promote sustainable development. The Moray &
73
Aberdeenshire Forest District Strategic Plan (2009-2013) recognise the importance of forest
74
resources for woodfuel utilisation (Forestry Commission Scotland, 2009). The Single
75
Outcome Agreement between Aberdeenshire Community Planning Partnership and the
76
Scottish Government (2009-10) shows that North East Scotland councils have been working
77
in order to create a biomass and biofuel industry through partnerships in Aberdeenshire and,
78
more throughout Europe. However, there is some evidence of a gap between political
79
ambitions and real bioenergy use in North East Scotland, as also concluded by Nybakk et al.
80
(2011) in their study about innovation in the wood bio-energy sector in Europe. If on the one
81
hand, the support from plans and strategies is evident, on the other hand, local producers
82
allege that Aberdeenshire council has been very slow at getting involved with the market and
83
getting public sector involvement in renewable energy supply chains compared to other local
84
authorities. In fact, according to Use Woodfuel Scotland website7, in 2013, only 14% of the
85
Scottish woodfuel suppliers were based in North East Scotland, with 25% in the Highlands
86
and Islands, 20% in Perth and Argyll, 23% in Central Scotland, and 18% in South Scotland.
87
88
In relation to the strategy needed to achieve higher GHG emissions reduction, the Forum for
89
Renewable Energy Development in Scotland (FREDS) believes the uptake of renewable heat
90
systems by the private sector (including domestic installations), is the optimal strategy
91
(Scottish Government, 2008). On the other hand, the Department of Energy and Climate
92
Change (DECC) believes the uptake of renewable heat by non-domestic installations (e.g.
93
businesses) is the most important strategy (Department of Energy and Climate Change,
94
2010). Further, according to Ericsson et al. (2004), individual heating systems are necessary
95
in rural areas where housing densities are too low for district heating to be possible. It is
7
http://www.usewoodfuel.co.uk/ (last accessed 30/10/2013)
18
96
mainly in these areas that high carbon-content fuels, such as heating oil, are used for heating
97
purposes. However, the financial support seems to be more directed to non-domestic
98
installations. In the past, only the Scottish Community & Household Renewable Initiative
99
(SCHRI) supported the installation of renewable heat systems in the domestic sector. This
100
initiative was only available for a three year period being followed by the Energy Savings
101
Scotland Home Renewable Grant available for the same period of time. Currently, there is
102
only the Renewable Heat Premium Payment (RHPP) supporting the installation of renewable
103
heat systems, including biomass boilers, in households. Although, the second phase of the
104
RHI, which aims at supporting the installation of renewable heat systems in households,
105
especially off the gas grid, expected to start in October 2012, it has been postponed to spring
106
2014. In the meantime the RHPP has been extended for a further year, until March 2014, to
107
provide continued support for households until the domestic RHI is introduced. The
108
discontinuities in funding of schemes may well slow down the installation of renewable heat
109
systems because of time needed to learn the new application processes and paperwork.
110
111
There are higher expectations on the uptake of renewable heat systems by the service sector
112
(commercial offices, communication, transport, education, government, health, hotel and
113
catering, retail, sport and leisure and warehouses) and communities (Department of Energy &
114
Climate Change, 2010; Scottish Government, 2011c). Schools and government buildings are
115
especially seen as an opportunity to demonstrate to the public the practical application of
116
renewable systems and to educate children on how to become advocates of ‘green energy’ in
117
the future (Department of Energy & Climate Change, 2010). Community projects have been
118
the main beneficiaries of SCRHI grants. The SCRHI funded 378 households and 146
119
community projects but the last received £3.6 million financial support compared to £673,000
120
received by households (Scottish Government, 2006). The SCRHI for communities was
121
substituted by the Community and Renewable Energy Scheme – CARES, which provided
122
£13.7 million worth of grants for community renewable projects. Currently, the Renewable
123
Heat Incentive (RHI) stimulates communities to get together and find suitable solutions for
124
local energy needs, including community-owned biomass cooperatives sourced by woodfuel
125
from sustainable local woodlands (Department of Energy & Climate Change, 2010). District
126
heating, which in certain occasions can be more cost-effective than installing individual
127
heating systems in individual properties, is also eligible for RHI. However, there is very little
128
history of community heat co-operatives in Scotland. In contrast, in Austria, the success of
129
renewable energy from biomass and rapid development of biomass district heating is believed
19
130
to be linked to high capital grants and generous subsidies available from several funding
131
sources (Reinhard, 2007; Roos, et al. 1999). However, Ericsson et al. (2004) asserts that
132
small-scale consumer (household level) reaction to government policies is different from that
133
of larger utilities and municipalities because they are constrained by the alternatives available
134
in their specific location, the low fuel flexibility of existing systems and limited information
135
about new heating schemes. In this context, scenarios A and B, generated in this study, will
136
be less likely to happen in the next years.
137
138
In fact, even with apparently strong policy support for the uptake of woodfuel heating
139
systems by the service sector, communities, and district heating, this has been slow to take off
140
in North East Scotland. In this region, by 2012, only 13 projects have been approved for a
141
total of 330 schools, 40 community centres and 499 council buildings (council offices,
142
swimming pools, libraries) existing in the region (Table 3).
143
144
Table 3 Awarded grants for biomass heating systems in North East Scotland
Objective
Building type
Woodfuel
type
Financial support
Macphie of
Glenbervie
Steam
Factory
Chips
Scottish
Biomass
Scheme (SBSS)
Chips
Energy Savings Trust (EST);
Scottish
Community and Householder
Renewables Initiative (SCHRI)
Aboyne
Academy
Heat
and
hot water
Burnot sawmill
Heat
School,
swimming pool,
library, theatre,
community
centre
Sawmill
Seaton flats
Heat
and
hot water
District Heating
Scheme
Dafling farm
Heat
Richie Hall
Heat
Haddo Estate
Heat
Aberdeen
Winter Gardens
Scottish
Sculpture
Workshop
Scottish School
of Forestry
Tomintoul
Wood CHP
Foresthill Health
Campus
Tullynessle &
Forbes
Community Hall
145
146
147
148
149
ktCO2
emission
savings.yr-1
Project name
Commercial and
residential units
Community Hall
District Heating
Scheme
Chips
Support
2.1
0.6
SBSS
EST; Aberdeen City Council’s
Warm and
Dry programme; SBSS.
n.a.
Chips
SBSS
0.06
Pellets
SBSS
n.a.
Chips
SBSS
0.216
Chips
n.a.
Heat
Public gardens
Chips
CARES
n.a.
Heat
Public building
Chips
CARES
n.a.
Heat
School
Chips
CARES
n.a.
Heat
n.a.
n.a.
Highlands
and
Islands
Community Energy (HICEC)
n.a.
Heat
Hospital
Chips
n.a.
n.a.
Heat
and
hot water
Community Hall
Pellets
SCHRI; Global
Facility (GEF)
Environment
n.a.
Sources:
http://www.aberdeenrenewables.com;
http://www.communityenergyscotland.org.uk;
http://www.scotland.gov.uk.
20
150
In practice, there has also been a big discrepancy in the type of renewable energy funded by
151
the SCRHI. In private households, about 50% of the grants were awarded for solar heating
152
systems and 26% for ground source heat pumps (GSHPs). In the case of community projects,
153
the distribution of grants has been more uniform across renewable energy types. Biomass,
154
biofuels and energy from waste projects received only 10% less funding than wind turbines
155
and only less 1% than solar heating systems. This suggests that biomass systems are more
156
cost-effective in the case of community projects.
157
158
It is not known to which extent the RHI is going to stimulate the uptake of woodfuel systems
159
in the domestic market and if any of the scenarios built in this study (scenario A or scenario
160
B) will be close to the future uptake in 2021. The real challenge is to retrofit existing houses
161
with woodfuel boilers. Price differences between woodfuel boilers and heating oil boilers
162
remain large. While an oil boiler costs on average £2,000 (including VAT and excluding
163
fitting), an automatically fed wood pellet boiler for an average home costs around £11,500
164
(including installation, fuel, fuel store and 5% VAT), with the manual option being slightly
165
cheaper. An additional point to take into account is the time to pay back the investment.
166
According to the Energy Saving Trust website8, the replacement of a domestic oil boiler by a
167
wood pellet boiler would save about £280 per year in a typical three-bedroom, semi-detached
168
house with basic insulation, which means that it would take about 40 years to payback the
169
investment at current oil prices. In terms of the supply side, it is probably cheaper for
170
suppliers to produce woodchips and focus on supplying the service sector, communities and
171
district heating scheme markets. Capital and energy costs of wood pellet production, more
172
suitable for domestic use, are higher than for woodchip production. Prioritising the support of
173
woodfuel systems in the service sector may however, limit the availability of wood for the
174
domestic market. As shown before, it is likely that the round wood needed to satisfy the
175
heating requirements of existing and new built houses will be insufficient. And much less
176
would be available if the service sector starts buying the woodfuel offered by the market. Of
177
course, wood energy can compete with other markets, especially chip and oriented strand
178
board (OSB), so if the price of woodchip and wood pellet rises, wood may be freed from
179
other markets to the woodfuel market. According to Caputo (2009), woodfuel could
180
ultimately be priced out of the market if increased demand were to result in wood fibre price
181
spikes. The same author points out that the representatives of industries such as OSB often
8
http://www.energysavingtrust.org.uk/scotland
21
182
express frustration with having to compete against subsidized industries for the same raw
183
materials.
184
185
The availability of wood for woodfuel could be promoted with short rotation coppice (SRC)
186
plantation or agroforestry systems such as alley cropping, where trees are placed within
187
agricultural cropland systems. But a scoping study on private landowners’ engagement with
188
woodfuel production in Fife (Scotland) found out that farmers who have planted SRC did it
189
on low yielding land (Walker, 2009). If SRC is planted only on marginal sites, the yearly
190
volumes are likely to not be enough to satisfy high wood demand. The same study also found
191
out negative attitudes towards SRC planting, specifically poor financial profile and the
192
inability to return to agriculture due to loss of field drains (Walker, 2009). In North East
193
Scotland, the opportunity to increase wood available for the woodfuel market with SRC
194
might also be constrained by this type of attitudes.
195
196
In terms of reduced CO2 emissions, it is possible to estimate and compare emissions for two
197
different scenarios (A and B) of woodfuel boilers uptake in the domestic sector, in North East
198
Scotland. It is clear that a bigger uptake (Scenario A), would result in higher CO2 emissions
199
reduction in 2021 (Figure 4), which, could make a significant contribution towards the
200
Scottish GHG emissions reduction target (42% by 2020) and regional GHG emissions
201
reduction aspirations. Despite policy support, both at UK, Scottish and regional level, and the
202
availability of forest resources in the region, there are several barriers, both from the demand
203
and supply side. Painuly (2001) developed a framework to identify barriers to renewable
204
energy penetration. These included market failure, market distortions, economic and financial
205
barriers (e.g. high payback, small market size), technical (e.g. lack of skilled personnel and
206
training facilities), social, cultural and behavioural barriers and other barriers such as
207
uncertain governmental policies or lack of infrastructure. The revocation of the carbon
208
neutrality assumption for biomass burning emissions is another potential barrier to the
209
implementation of woodfuel systems. Although biomass has been designated as “carbon
210
neutral” in the 1996 IPCC Greenhouse Gas Inventory paper (IPCC, 1996) and by the
211
Renewable Energy Directive 2009/28/EC (RED, 2009), the idea that biogenic emissions are
212
carbon neutral has been subject to considerable criticism (e.g. Manomet Center for
213
Conservation Sciences, 2010; EEA, 2011). A carbon neutral certified product can have a
214
market advantage in relation to non-carbon neutral products. Likewise, biomass-fired plants
215
can have an advantage by receiving carbon credits, tax exemptions or subsidies from
22
216
governments. Therefore, if the “carbon neutral brand” is lost, this will potentially be a barrier
217
for the uptake of woodfuel systems because that niche of the market and other potential
218
benefits (e.g. tax exemptions) might also be lost. According to Agostini et al. (2013), the
219
carbon neutral assumption is commonly accepted for annual crops, short-rotation coppices
220
and agri-residues, wood waste, and industrial wood residues. In the case of forest bioenergy
221
(especially stemwood), the carbon emitted from combustion can actually spend a long time in
222
the atmosphere before being recaptured through biomass growth (Agostini et al., 2013).
223
224
In North East Scotland, several barriers can also limit the uptake of woodfuel systems. Up-
225
front capital costs are usually higher for renewable heating technologies than for other
226
comparable fossil-fuel equipment, for example heating oil and this is a major barrier for
227
adoption of woodfuel systems (Scottish Government, 2008; Scottish Executive, 2007a). Not
228
only are wood energy boilers very expensive, but also there is a need for storage systems for
229
wood pellets or wood chips and in some situations for pumps to link dispersed homes to the
230
main boiler. The high capital costs can be aggravated if storage systems are badly designed,
231
this being pointed out as one of the causes of failure in the success of woodfuel heating
232
systems. Maker (2004) stated that one of the most important tasks in putting together a
233
successful biomass system is building a fuel storage facility that will meet both the immediate
234
and long-term needs of the system, the owners, and the operators.
235
236
Woodfuel is still an infant industry in North East Scotland. The supply chain is poorly
237
developed and the absence of a viable market for small round wood from young coniferous
238
plantations is an obstacle to the development of the sector. Several sources (Woodfuel Task
239
Force, 2008; Scottish Executive, 2007a; Millar, 2004), mention the lack of a developed
240
market for biomass and the difficulty in assessing of biomass availability. The lack of a
241
developed wood supply chain may constrain the uptake of woodfuel systems by individual
242
households. In the opposite hand, larger estates, which have a long tradition of forestry
243
(WEAG, 2012) and security of wood supply, are likely to have a higher uptake of these
244
systems.
245
246
The Woodfuel Task Force Report (Woodfuel Task Force, 2008) also suggests that there is no
247
regulation or effective and integrated planning. The regulatory and support system remains
248
too slow and unresponsive to meet the needs. If an oil boiler breaks down and needs
249
replacing, the slow turnaround on grant applications and the delays in planning and
23
250
installation makes it less likely that a woodfuel solution will be adopted. To aggravate the
251
situation, there are few trained boiler installers and few maintenance personnel able to give
252
good technical advice (IPA, 2009; Scottish Government, 2008). The FREDS Renewable Heat
253
Group (Scottish Government, 2008) argues that the installation of renewable heat
254
technologies depends on appropriate knowledge and skills and recognises that training
255
availability is currently limited. The Micro-generation Certification Scheme, which
256
certificates micro-generation technologies used to produce heat from renewable sources, is
257
considered a barrier to the development of the market because of the costs and limited
258
number of locations where training occurs (IPA, 2009). The low number of trainees leads to
259
lower competition and high installation costs. In terms of undergraduate studies, in North
260
East Scotland, the University of Aberdeen offers a taught programme on renewable energy
261
but this is not specific to biomass energy production and development.
262
263
The Renewable Energy Forum considers that the current costs are high and that the outcomes
264
of the RHI are highly uncertain and will expose the consumer to high energy costs for
265
conventional energy. The Forum believes that if the funding mechanism for the RHI is a levy
266
on fossil fuel, fuel poverty in rural areas will increase because fuel poor and rural heat
267
consumers will not normally be able to invest in RHI eligible technologies. This will cause a
268
net transfer from poorer to richer consumers who can afford to adopt renewable heat
269
technologies (Renewable Energy Forum, 2010).
270
271
There is also high competition in the woodfuel market. Balcas, a woodpellet manufacturing
272
facility based at Invergordon, North of Inverness, with support from Highlands and Islands
273
Enterprise, is a significant competitor for local woodfuel producers. The plant has an output
274
capacity of 100,000 tonnes per annum which is equivalent to the woodfuel needed to heat
275
20,000 households during the same period. The Biomass Action Plan for Scotland (Scottish
276
Executive, 2007a), considers this as “giant leap forward in biomass development” but small
277
woodfuel producers view Balcas with apprehension because such a significant degree of
278
market power can undercut them. The implications are positive for supply, notwithstanding
279
the risks of concentrated market power.
280
281
Finally, although there are reasonable forest resources for the production of woodfuel, these
282
may not be always available because of high costs of harvesting machinery in the case of
283
difficult work terrain and small-scale and fragmented woodland plots (Woodfuel Task Force,
24
284
2008). Costs of extraction are lower in lowland areas which become more favourable for
285
planting short rotation coppice (SRC) than hills. However, this may raise concerns that
286
biomass production displaces food production, unless poorer quality agricultural land is used.
287
The European Environment Agency (EEA) Scientific Committee on greenhouse gas
288
accounting in relation to bioenergy called attention to this issue and recommended the
289
revision of the European Union regulations and policy targets to encourage the reduction of
290
GHG emissions with bioenergy only when there is additional biomass and other ecosystems
291
services such as fibre production and food provision are not displaced (EEA, 2011).
292
293
On the supporting side, the expected increases in oil prices in the future compared to
294
woodfuel prices, linked to the availability of local resources, could support prospects for
295
further development in woodfuel markets in North East Scotland.
296
297
298
299
5. Conclusion
300
Adoption of renewable heating for space and water purposes is expected to rise in the next
301
few years due to an increase in the number of projected new houses (Figure 1). The increase
302
in the number of new houses and the requirements of the Scottish Planning Policy 6 (SPP6)
303
(Scottish Executive, 2007b) in terms of renewable technologies, anticipate an increase in the
304
demand of woodfuel for space and water heating, in addition to high fuel prices. For
305
scenarios A and B (Figures 3 and 4), 10% of the small roundwood produced annually in the
306
region would not be enough to satisfy the potential demand for woodfuel by 2021. To satisfy
307
the potential demand for woodfuel needed to heat the number of households assumed in these
308
two scenarios, wood for fuel would have to be released from other markets. Planting short
309
rotation coppice on high productivity sites, implementing agroforestry systems (as for
310
example alley cropping), or changing forest management strategies to increase yields could
311
also increase the amount of wood available for woodfuel production. Carbon dioxide
312
emissions reduction from the adoption of woodfuel systems would be significant compared to
313
non-adoption (Figure 5) and this would contribute to the Scottish 2020 GHG emissions
314
reduction target.
315
sequestration, biodiversity conservation, soil enrichment, erosion and air and water quality
316
can also be promoted through the integration of trees and crops (agroforestry).
Apart from woodfuel production, important benefits such as carbon
25
317
Even though wood energy systems remain the object of much attention and a degree of public
318
support, the actual state of developments to date in North East Scotland suggests that
319
household demand will remain modest, unless the RHI offers substantial incentives when it is
320
finally launched. Industry and public sector use are likely to be the major beneficiaries of
321
support. Further, the high cost of pellet-based heating systems for the household means that
322
any financial support derived from non-renewable fuel use will compound fuel poverty and
323
offer opportunities only for the well-off. This is the trade-off for setting up different policy
324
targets independently (renewable energy target, GHG emissions reduction target, fuel poverty
325
reduction target) rather than integrating them all.
326
327
Some of the barriers for the adoption of woodpellet boilers could possibly be mitigated if
328
some additional thought and finance are made available. Financial support should go into
329
training programmes, better planning and better designed storage systems for woodfuel.
330
Constraining factors such as high capital costs, weak supply chains and uncertainty are more
331
difficult to overcome. In terms of capital costs and development of the supply chain, it can be
332
questioned whether government incentives are sufficient to promote significant adoption of
333
woodfuel boilers. Capital costs for households would certainly go down in time if the demand
334
for this type of heating system grows. But a rise in oil and electricity costs would potentially
335
drive consumers to a market solution (e.g. wood-burners with logs) even with a high upfront
336
capital cost.
337
338
North East Scotland comprises a useful ‘laboratory’ in which to consider the opportunities for
339
renewable heat production from woody biomass. It has an abundant forest resource but an
340
incipient rather than a developed supply system. However, the experiment to date has been
341
only moderately successful, in spite of efforts made by the public sector to stimulate growth.
342
A rapidly changing policy support system and long delays in developing and implementing
343
policy have cast a shadow over the sector’s development and the opportunities in the
344
household sector remain constrained. Further, current funding mechanisms seem highly
345
likely to compound fuel poverty and offer subsidised greening of heat energy supply to
346
affluent households. Notwithstanding these significant problems, the high level of provision
347
of space and water heating from fossil fuels means that cost-effective mitigation of climate
348
change should still be sought in industrial, public and household sectors. To create the
349
opportunity, it would seem important to review and revise the existing policy architecture and
350
shield the fuel poor from having to support such developments with their energy bills.
26
Acknowledgements:
We thank the two anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments and Dr. Iain Brown for
the proof-reading and suggestions.
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