M e m o r a n d u m FROM: Michael Baker, SBW TO: RTF Staff DATE: February 11, 2013 RE: Phase I Review and Update Recommendations: Manufactured Home Air Source Heat Pump Upgrades This memo documents the results of The Cadmus Group Inc.’s detailed review of the UES (Unit Energy Savings) measure Manufactured Home Air Source Heat Pump Upgrades. This measure has been categorized as Proven and therefore this memo outlines recommendations consistent with that category. This measure covers energy savings from energy-efficient heat pumps installed in manufactured homes. We also reviewed the SEEM1 workbooks ExistingResidentialSingleFamily_SEEMRuns_02a.xlsm (and 03a) that relate to the Heat Pump upgrade measure. The review focused on the derivation of the heat pump upgrade UES values and associated documentation. Summary Recommendation. The status of this measure should be changed to Under Review. The following recommendations lead to a change in status to Under Review. 1. Workbook needs to be updated to use latest ProCost template which includes Measure Cost and EUL summary sheets. 2. Update the measure to use the results from the most recent version of the SEEM model. 3. Remove requirement that equipment be installed “in substantial compliance with PTCS specifications.” 4. Define that electric resistance backup heat use is a requirement of this measure. Limitation of Review We accept, without review, the climate zones selected to estimate energy consumption of heat pumps. Climate zones include Portland, Seattle, Spokane, Boise, and Kalispell. We understand savings are 1 The Simple Energy and Enthalpy Model (SEEM) simulation program is designed to model small scale residential building energy use. http://www.nwcouncil.org/energy/rtf/measures/support/SEEM/Default.asp 2820 Northup Way, Suite 230 Bellevue, WA 98004 Page 1 weighted by climate and population and we accept that this strategy reasonably estimates average energy consumption and savings for heat pump upgrades. We did not review the details of SEEM models that are used to estimate savings. The input parameters (worksheets “SEEMinputmap” and “SEEMinput”) and the workbook’s manipulation of the output data (worksheet “SEEMoutput” and “Results”) were reviewed to check for calculation and consistency errors. We did not independently run any SEEM models. Alterations to Workbook and Documentation Cadmus added a sheet called “Summary” to the workbook. This sheet describes how measures are identified, lists important constants and their sources. It also describes the savings estimation algorithm, the associated baseline and efficient case parameters, and their sources for each measure and UES component. Cadmus removed the following worksheets: o o o MeasureTable – CCS CommissioningControlsSizing Combined Measures We removed these worksheets in an effort to house the high efficiency heat pump upgrade measure in an individual workbook. There are some spreadsheets that contribute to all three of the heat pump measures (Upgrades; Conversions; and Commissioning, Controls, and Sizing) which were left in to keep the measure cost portions of the workbook complete. Recommendations for Updates The RTF should implement the following recommendations: 1) Workbook Structure and Formulas a) Workbook needs to be updated to use latest ProCost template, which includes Measure Cost and EUL summary worksheets. This deficiency causes a change of status to Under Review. b) Update UES values using most recent SEEM model. The SEEM model referenced in the workbook is titled: “ExistingResidentialManufacturedHome_SEEMRuns_02.xlsm” (SEEM Version 2a). It appears a newer version exists titled: “ExistingResidentialManufacturedHome_SEEM94Runs_03a” (SEEM Version 0.94). The newer version should be used to maintain consistency between similar measures. KEMA recommended an update1 for a similar measure (Residential: Heating/Cooling - PTCS Commissioning, Controls, 1 See Recommended Memo on RTF website titled: Residential: Heating/Cooling - PTCS Commissioning, Controls, & Sizing SF Page 2 & Sizing SF) using the latest SEEM (v0.94) modeling. We recommend the same update for this measure using UES values from SEEM Runs Workbook 3a1. There are differences in all UES values (see Table 1). This deficiency causes a change of status to Under Review. Table 1. SEEM Model Output Differences SEEM Version 3a (kWh) 213 311 149 262 382 184 290 419 204 SEEM Version 2a (kWh) 266 391 184 310 455 214 338 494 236 Measure Description HeatPump Upgrade - 7.7/13 to 8.5/13 - Heating Zone 1 HeatPump Upgrade - 7.7/13 to 9.0/14 - Heating Zone 1 HeatPump Upgrade - 7.7/13 to 8.2/13 - Heating Zone 1 HeatPump Upgrade - 7.7/13 to 8.5/13 - Heating Zone 2 HeatPump Upgrade - 7.7/13 to 9.0/14 - Heating Zone 2 HeatPump Upgrade - 7.7/13 to 8.2/13 - Heating Zone 2 HeatPump Upgrade - 7.7/13 to 8.5/13 - Heating Zone 3 HeatPump Upgrade - 7.7/13 to 9.0/14 - Heating Zone 3 HeatPump Upgrade - 7.7/13 to 8.2/13 - Heating Zone 3 2) Documentation a) Add documentation of the study results that have been used to validate and/or calibrate the SEEM model to manufactured homes. This deficiency causes a change of status to Under Review. 3) Measure Definition a) Remove requirement that equipment be installed “in substantial compliance with PTCS specifications” meaning the measure and savings are based on the equipment only, with no prescribed installation requirements. There are two related measures that cause this recommendation: o This measure: Installation of a heat pump system “in substantial compliance with PTCS specifications” o Heat Pump PTCS C,C&S: Installation of a heat pump system by “PTCS Commissioning, Controls, and Sizing” The first bulleted item is a requirement of this measure. The second is a different measure that includes savings in addition to the savings for this measure. According to the RTF measure workbook for this measure, “Res_MHHeatPumpsFY10v2_4.xls”, the “Heat pump system must be 1 http://www.nwcouncil.org/energy/rtf/measures/support/Default.asp file called: “ExistingResidentialManufacturedHome_SEEM94Runs_03.xls” Page 3 installed in substantial compliance with PTCS1 specifications.” The measure specification also states the following exception: “PTCS Commissioning, Controls, and Sizing are not a requirement of this measure.” Cadmus reviewed all PTCS specifications that are requirements of this heat pump upgrade measure. It appears that the PTCS Specifications form requires controls and commissioning in accordance with good, high efficiency installation practice. Cadmus also reviewed the document “Performance Tested Comfort Systems - Air-Source Heat Pump System Installation Standards” which is found under the “Program Specifications” section of the Heat Pump measure reviewed in this memo. If the heat pump upgrade measure had no PTCS requirements there would be no overlap between the two measures listed above. Although we recognize the importance of the requirement to use quality installation practices for heat pump installation, there exists another measure “PTCS Commissioning, Controls and Sizing” to which savings are attributed. Savings for this heat pump equipment measure should be based on equipment efficiency differences only. Additional savings are counted if the heat pump is commissioned. Note that SEEM model runs assume an un-commissioned system, so removing this requirement is consistent with the model savings. This deficiency causes the measure to change to status Under Review. b) Define that existing measures use electric resistance backup heat, as this is the assumption used to estimate savings. The UES from SEEM models are based on heat pumps with electric resistance backup heat. If a heat pump system has a backup gas furnace rather than electric resistance heat, these SEEM runs are not applicable and the UES may be less than expected.2 This deficiency causes the measure to change to status Under Review. 4) UES Savings Estimation Method a) No recommendations. 5) Input Parameters a) The primary input parameters for this measure are inputs to the SEEM model. These were reviewed and no issues were found. Additional Considerations 1) Add measures for heat pump systems that use non-electric backup heat. During an evaluation of Avista Utilities service territory in Washington and Idaho we observed a large proportion (~40%) of 1 Performance tested comfort system: www.ptcsnw.com/. The document “Performance Tested Comfort Systems - Air-Source Heat Pump System Installation Standards” describes installation standards. 2 This depends on the balance point of the heat pump. However, the heat pump may run when the backup electric resistance heat runs. It will not run if the gas furnace is running. Installing a gas furnace (instead of electric resistance heat) will always reduce heat pump run time. Page 4 heat pump systems installed backup gas furnaces in single family homes. We expect a smaller proportion in manufactured homes, but dual-fuel system installations are a possibility that requires consideration. If a heat pump system has a backup gas furnace rather than electric resistance heat, the system HSPF is not applicable and the UES may be less than expected1. 2) An alternative to dropping the requirement of “substantial compliance with PTCS specifications” is to add an eligibility requirement to the Commissioning Controls and Sizing (C,C&S) measure that participants must not have also claimed savings for this upgrade measure. 1 This depends on the balance point of the heat pump. However, the heat pump may run when the backup electric resistance heat runs. It will not run if the gas furnace is running. Installing a gas furnace (instead of electric resistance heat) will always reduce heat pump run time. Page 5