China’s growing influence in South Asia a wary for India
Shoaib Khan
Associated with Centre for Central Eurasian Studies,
University of Mumbai,
President ALFAAZ Education and Cultural Society, Mumbai.
Lecturer Mahim Social Workers’ College, Mumbai.
Published in the Annual Magazine of Khathija College of Education, Thane, India.
II nd Issue July 2010-2011.
China’s growing influence in the world had already been recognized by US and
respective regional powers and heavy weights around the world. Whether in South
East Asia after the agreement it has reached with ASEAN (Association for South
East Asian Nation) or its gaining importance for European countries in relation to
which Angela Markel’s visit to the forbidden kingdom time and again not once but
five times since she became the Chancellor of Germany. Its increasing hegemony
in the Central Asian among its rivals for which the whole of West particularly the
US is hesitant to resist. The rising role of China is also recognized in Africa since
the late 1990s especially after 2006 Beijing summit in which 35 heads of different
African states were invited. The resource rich Latin America too cannot be ignored
for its shift towards the Red Empire in the last decade and a half. In this context
South Asia cannot be left behind.
The area was under the shadow of dragon for the last four decades due to its
ally with Pakistan militarily and economically, but for a couple of decades since its
rise in economic growth and its recognition as a power in the world its increasing
trade with other countries of the region particularly with Sri Lanka and Nepal for
which there are suspicion of the growing Maoists movement in the Himalayan
Kingdom being receiving indirect support from across its Northern border. The
Chinese influence began to gain vitality after its growing trade and diplomatic ties
with India forged ahead. Even in SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional
Cooperation) where it has received as an observer status along with US, there are
hectic efforts from Pakistan to include its closest ally into the fragile regional
organization particularly after the accommodation of Afghanistan into it. But this
effort has been resisted by its adversary India for fear of losing its domination in
the Association once the Chinese enter it. The preceding period had witnessed
China as becoming the largest trading partner of almost all the countries US,
European Union, Pakistan, Russia and India. Right from the Persian Gulf to the
Strait of Malacca it has stretched its trade both in consumer goods and defense
hard wares. The analyses for which can be made that even US has now began to
expect its contribution in South Asia.
It is natural to worry for India on the Dragon’s shadow in the region, as it
has been observed in the recent past of its growing strategic ties with the
neighbouring and nearby countries. Under its ‘Ring of Pearls’ strategy China had
surrounded India from all sides with the help of which besides keeping India on
check, China will ensure its hold in the Malacca Straits the route through which
according to an estimate 65% of its energy imports mainly crude oil from Middle
East and Africa takes place. Its inching closer towards Malaysia and Indonesia is a
cause of concern not only for India but also for US which see a greater Chinese
activity in the Indian Ocean.
Recent reports indicate China’s increasing troops stationed in Pakistan
administered Kashmir which numbers about 11,000 and also Chinese involvement
in several projects in the disputed territory also the construction of Gwadar port in
Pakistan by which it can get easy access to the Gulf and Africa through Arabian
Sea. Its increasing ties with Turkey and Iran are seen as a possibility of AnkaraTehran-Islamabad-Beijing axis which even US may find difficult to curtail in
future. The Chinese backing to Kenyan authorities plan to construct the Lamu port
which is considered to be the largest in Africa as an effort to consolidate its
position in the continent. Analysts see China’s activities in East Africa as a multi
layered approach for long term economic gain and for advancing China’s geopolitical ambitions.
In India’s North East Chinese have been violating the Indian borders
consistently in Kashmir and Arunachal Pradesh to which it stakes claim, its
penetration in Nepal diplomatically and through opening of border trade is another
story. In Burma (Myanmar) too China has been active long ago its assistance in the
construction of Sitwwe port and also its listening post on Coco island in the North
of Andaman predicts its strategic goals. China is strengthening its ties with
Bangladesh by building a container facility at Chittagong expecting to achieve
more naval and commercial access in the country.
In Sri Lanka where along with Pakistan the rendering of financial and military
help to the Island nation with the help of which the Sri Lankan forces were able to
crush the LTTE (Liberation Tigers of Tamil Ealam). This gave an opportunity for
China to create its bases in Sri Lanka’s Hambantota and another is still under the
plan. With a creation of its base in Marao in Maldives the Chinese have created a
naval base in the South West of India.
Amidst this the US assistant Secretary of state for South & Central Asia
Robert Blake flew straight from Thimphu to Beijing via Dhaka and Bangkok to
attend the second round of the US-China dialogue on South Asia, an indication of
rising US acceptance of Chinese interest and jurisdiction over South Asia. After
China’s contribution of US$300,000 to SAARC Development Fund. To India’s
surprise it was none other than US President Barrack Obama who encouraged
Chinese interest in South Asia. Along with his Chinese counterpart Hu Jintao in
Beijing in November 2009, US and China pledged to strengthen communication
dialogue and cooperation on issues related to South Asia. The Americans seems to
be keen that China play a more active role in Afghanistan like training the Afghan
police and involvement in many other institutions.
The American also expects the Chinese to play a big role on Tehran’s
nuclear issue after being impressed with Beijing in dealing with North Korea.
China’s forever blossoming relationship with Pakistan army and ISI, must have
persuaded the US that it should persuade on exploitation of natural resources, such
as the buying up of the Aynat copper mine in Afghanistan for US$2 billion and
play a more strategic role in the AFPak region. As far as Beijing’s nuclear deal for
Pakistan is concerned which stands in the line of US nuclear deal with India, the
US position seems to be softening for Pakistan’s central importance in the AfPak
great game which might also result in the exception for China from the Nuclear
Suppliers Group (NSG) permission to supply the two reactors in Pakistan after
China’s National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC) stated that China had signed a deal
with Pakistan for two nuclear power plants of 340 MW each, worth US$2.3 billion.
Though after US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell’s visit to India
offering a series of meetings did gave some relief to New Delhi but Obama
administration’s ceding of primacy to China in Asia, can be India’s prickliness in
the long run.
India too had been engaged in countering China by entering into strategic
partnerships with countries such as Australia and Japan which the Chinese media
highlighted of India’s plans to encircle China after Prime Minister Man Mohan
Singh’s visit to Japan but this counter strategy seems to be too dwarfed in
countering the Chinese strategy of encircling India from all sides.