Tatiana Brown EKHK31 August 2013 Policy and Regulation Effects on the Timber Market: A Case Study of Ghana Based on the timber export sector of Ghana, and in particular, export to the European Union. Lund University Department of Economic History Examiner: Prof. Benny Carlson Supervisor: Erik Green 1 Table of Contents 1. Introduction 1.1 Objective 1.2 Previous Research 1.3 Theory 1.4 Hypothesis 2. Method 2.1 Approach 2.2 Data 2.3 Variables 2.4 Classification 3. Historical Background of Ghana 3.1 Post-Independence 3.2 1980, the Economic Recovery Program and the World Bank Timber Rehabilitation 3.3 1990 4. Regulation and Policy changes and their effects on the export of timber 3.1 Regulation and Policy Change by Ghana 3.3.1 Forest Policy 3.3.2 Bans 3.3.3 Ghana Investment Code 1985 3.3.4 TIDD 3.3.5 ERP years 5. Regulation and Policy changes (EU/ECC) 5.1 Regulation and Policy Changes by the EU 5.1.1 The International Tropical Timber Agreement 1983 5.1.2 The International Tropical Timber Council 2 5.1.3 Eco Labeling 5.1.4 The UK Timber Procurement Policy 5.1.5 The FSC 5.1.6 The ERP revisited 5.1.7 FLEGT and VAP’s 6. Empirical Findings 6.1 African Timber Production and Export 6.1.1 Export and Value 6.1.2 Exports of Timber from Africa to Europe 6.2 The Impact and Effects of Regulation and Policy by EU on the Production and Export of Timber. 6.3 The Increase of Exports after Ghanaian Regulation and Policy Changes 7. Analytical Discussion 8. Bibliography 8.1 Literature and Articles 8.2 Other Literature 3 1. Introduction 1.1 Objective This study analyzes the economic effects of environmental regulation. More specifically I will analyze the economic impact of environmental regulations of the European Community on Ghana’s timber export sector. As with many developing countries, Ghana relies heavily on the extraction of its natural resources, such as minerals, forests, and agricultural land to meet its economic growth and other social development objectives.1 Tropical forests are rapidly disappearing as tropical countries develop the value-added sectors of their forest industries.2 Recently, the study of economics has been swayed to take into consideration environmental factors, as well as the growing impact of the European Union Market. Deforestation is the main cause for environmental debate today. The problems and impacts surrounding illegal logging and the export thereof have amplified, causing an increase in regulation from the importing countries. The pressures of environmental sustainability come from both the importing countries as well as the EU itself. These pressures are having great effects on the timber production companies, with the majority situated in economically unstable and export-dependent countries. For over 40 years, Ghana as well as other African countries have exported their timber primarily to European countries, resulting in a good source of income for the Ghanaian economy. The European Community and the European Union have implemented regulations and policies for the sustainability of forests, controlling the types and amount of timber exported and in turn the price of timber. Since 1981, the annual rate of deforestation in Ghana has been two percent per year or 750 hectares each year.3 Since 1994, the export quantity of roundwood and industrial tropical roundwood has decreased dramatically. Why has Ghana’s timber export declined since 1990? In order to answer this question, this thesis will use empirical evidence that suggests European regulation implementation affects the quantity of timber exported to Europe. To understand the effects, one must analyze the historical data up until 2012 and see where patterns and trends have occurred in line with changes of regulations. I have used Ghana as a case study to show more specific data and as an example of how Europe can mildly control David M Nanang, Analysis of export demand for Ghana’s timber products, 2008. C Denis Ingram, Historical Price Trends of non-coniferous Tropical Logs and sawnwood Imported to the United States, Europe and Japan.1993 3 Anonymous, TED case studies, Ghana Forest Loss.1997. 1 2 4 timber export from developing countries. Ghana is also a good example of a developing country not reliable on oil export and, more importantly, reliable on timber export. Furthermore, in 2009 Ghana was the first African country to sign a voluntary partnership agreement (FLEGT) with the EU to export only legally harvested timber to Europe. With this as an example of timber regulation with Africa, I decided to focus on Ghana and analyze its exporting history with Europe. The European member states during 1970 to 2012 have been chosen in this thesis since they are one of the biggest importers of timber in the world, particularly from African developing countries. Ghana is a perfect example of a primarily export-based economic community. It has also been the largest exporter of timber and tropical hardwood to Europe, until recent years. Furthermore Ghana is a country in Africa which shows reliable data in relation to oil export, which could affect both the data collected as well as the economy in itself. Despite oil being discovered in 1970’s, it was insignificant to the economy up until 2009. 1.2 Previous Research: I have looked at Ghana as a whole, involving political, social and economic circumstances pre-independence and post-independence. This is to give my research and understanding of Ghana a broader scale and not just to focus on the export sector. 1.3 Theory According to Stigler, the Theory of Economic Regulation states that a regulator faces special interest pressure from producers and electoral pressure from consumers. 4 Furthermore, he suggests that there are two ways to help a producer; via a direct subsidy or via protectionism. Regulators favor a protectionist method of limited entry to the market. Therefore protective regulations like tariffs, licensing, fees and other economic instruments are used. He also suggests that within this theory, regulators receive the gains, despite the producers assuming it is to their advantage. This is contrary to my thesis. The purpose of discussing this theory is to show the different perspectives on regulation. In this case, regulation is causing a negative impact on the economy of Ghana and reducing its 4 Stigler. 1971. The theory of economic regulation. Bell Journal of Economics and Management Science 2 (spring): 3-21. 5 export of timber. I will show that EU regulation is reducing the amount of timber export from Ghana and through this regulation protectionism on the timber market occurs. Strategic theories of protection argue that countries strategically alter trade flows in order to gain some kind of market advantage. Magee, Brock and Young (1989) suggest a hypothesis that protection is targeted towards disadvantaged groups.5 In general, an increase in a country’s terms of trade causes the equilibrium of protection to rise and the export subsidy to fall.6 It has been claimed, for example, that trade between two countries with different levels of environmental regulations will lead to the low regulation country specializing in pollution intensive production.7 The effects of regulations and the impact of regulators can have a negative impact on economies and markets, especially when considering environmental policies. The intention of an environmental policy or regulation is to ensure the sustainability of a resource, not encourage more production of the resource. The Austrian School of thought has supported the idea that regulations are problematic and that regulations will have unintended consequences.8 Regulations, as I suggest in this thesis, are restricting the export of timber out of Ghana. Cordato even writes in notion of using Austrian theory in environmental economics.9 In my thesis I will also use economic theory to show how the demand of a commodity reacts to its price. According to economic theory, if the price or value of a commodity increases the demand for the commodity will decrease. 1.4 Hypothesis For this thesis I will attempt to show that the export of timber is affected by the regulations and policies by Europe through empirical evidence, using economic theory as my foundation for research, and tying links with the Austrian school of thought. When the regulations and policies are implemented the data will show an increase in the price of timber and a decrease in the amount exported. The regulations and policy changes are therefore variables. The value of production and export of timber are the initial factors. 5 Magee, Stephen P, William A. Brock, and Leslie Young, (1989), Black Hole Tariffs and Endogenous Policy Theory (Cambridge University Press) 6 Magee, Stephen P, William A. Brock, and Leslie Young, (1989), Black Hole Tariffs and Endogenous Policy Theory (Cambridge University Press) pp.157. 7 Baumol and Oates 1988, The theory of environmental policy 8 Roy Cordato, 2004, Toward an Austrian theory of environmental economics, The Quarterly Journal of Austrian Economics (3-16) 9 Roy Cordato, 2004, Toward an Austrian theory of environmental economics, The Quarterly Journal of Austrian Economics (3-16) 6 The Ghanaian economy is dependent on its timber export sector. This analysis will therefore show the production, price and export of timber before European regulations were implemented, showing low timber prices, and large export quantities. Then the analysis will show the production, price and export of timber after European regulations were implemented, showing higher timber prices and smaller export quantities. Regulations implemented by the Ghanaian governments and Forestry Departments described in this analysis will show how, on the other hand, local government regulations have increased timber export quantities, reduced the prices of timber and in turn encouraged economic growth. 2. Method 2.1 Approach The approach in this thesis is to firstly understand the timber market in Africa and thereon the timber market of Ghana, together with an overview of the Ghanaian economy from postindependence to today. Thereafter I have focused on the regulations and policies implemented by firstly the Ghanaian government, and secondly by the European Community. With this analysis of the regulations covered I attempt to show the patterns of timber export after the regulations or policies have been implemented or changed, with the use of diagrams taken from databases, literature analysis and an interview from a large timber company in Ghana. To gain an understanding of the economic patterns and of timber export to Europe and to show the decrease in timber export from Ghana I have used three different ways of collecting information. 2.2 Data Within my empirical findings, my primary quantitative data is collected from statistical databases such as World Bank and FAOSTAT Forestry, the Forestry Commission of Ghana, as well as the European Commission for facts on regulations and policies on timber import. Reliable articles and literature have allowed me to attain historical data since it is difficult to find within databases, especially in terms of demand for wood products, where little to none has been documented. Quantitative data has been displayed in diagrams to show patterns of timber value and timber export. This method of approach has also been useful by allowing me to specify different species of timber. Using economic theory to interpret my empirical 7 findings I can show how the price of timber correlates to the export of timber. The period of 1961 to 2012 has been selected for the understanding of timber export as a whole; however the period of 1990 to 2012 has been selected when discussing the effects of EU regulations and policy changes since the majority of changes occurred during this time, as well as the period of 1980 to 2012 when discussing the effects of Ghanaian regulations and policy changes. Furthermore it allows the reader to be capable of analyzing the difference between timber value and export before and after these changes. Secondary data has been carefully selected from literature, the majority of which is qualitative data in consistency with policy and regulation implementation, as well as showing their effects. After showing the collection of data and empirical findings, I will show that my hypothesis is satisfied through my analytical discussion. 2.3 Variables The changing factors in this thesis are the regulations implemented. I have used those by the Ghanaian government and those by the EU to show the contrary effects of regulations implemented. There are several variables which could have had an effect on the result but have been ignored in this thesis: 1) the global competitive market, with several other countries producing much larger quantities of timber for export, for example China, 2) Employment within the timber sector in Ghana, which could have an effect on the timber output and hence export. Furthermore employment within timber firms could be dependent on outside factors such as wages set by locals, private owners or the government or geographical location of timber firms throughout the period 1970 to today. This is covered in more advanced research, for example by Owusu 2001. The employment of expatriate staff, however, is mentioned later under The effects of the ERP. 3) Consumption of wood products within the EU. There is very little research on how the consumption of wood products is linked to deforestation, even less so when there are so many other factors involved in the consumption. In 2008, the European Commission tried to address this lack of information.10 The Environment Council, the European Parliament and the Economic and Social Committee have since then urged support for a study in the relationship between consumption and deforestation. Lastly 4) technological 10 European Commission Document, Second strategic review of better regulation in the European Union, 2008. 8 change or shift in consumer patterns. The rising use of replacement products such as plastic, have changed the way the consumer buys wood products. 2.4 Classification The European Economic Community will be called as such in this analysis between the period of 1980 and 1990. Any discussion on the European Community thereafter will be referred to as the European Union. This is due to the constant changing number of European member states throughout the period of 1960 to 1990, and thereafter. The countries which were included in the ECC during this time have been the six founding nations (Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands and Western Germany), 1960’s joining members (Denmark, Ireland and the United Kingdom), 1970’s joining members (Greece) and the joining members of the 1980’s (Portugal, Spain and Turkey). All African countries used in the first part of the study apply apart from Algeria, Libya, Egypt, Nigeria, Gabon, Congo and Angola. These countries have had oil as their largest export income between 1970 and now, and are omitted since agricultural produce are not their largest source of export income in comparison to countries such as Ghana. In this report it is critical to determine the types of wood to be used in the analysis. About 90% of Ghana’s exported timber products are sawnwood, veneer and plywood. These will be referred to as tropical timber products. Tropical timber is defined in the International Tropical Timber Agreement (1994) as non-coniferous tropical wood for industrial uses, which grows or is produced in the countries situated between the Tropic of Cancer and the Tropic of Capricorn. The term covers logs, sawnwood, veneer sheets and plywood. Plywood which includes in some measure conifer trees of tropical origin shall also be covered by the definition.11 Tropical plywood is often a mix of tropical woods and is much more attractive for consumers since it is denser and more weather resistant than indigenous wood or the structure of wood from moderate climates. Roundwood is compiled of sawlogs and veneer logs and in this analysis I have used roundwood as the subject for data when applying sawnwood and veneer sheets. However, I have applied sawnwood and veneer sheets separately in a few diagrams to show more specific export and value data. Within the EU, supplies of wood-based raw materials of adequate quality can be imported at competitive 11 FAOstat, Forest Products Definitions. 9 prices and the EU is a net importer of these products - the two main types of such imports comprise roundwood as well as pulpwood.12 3. Historical Background of Ghana 3.1 Post - Independence Ghana has for many years been a promising African country, however since becoming an independent country from being a British colony in 1957 Ghana experienced many difficulties in trying to maintain its economic growth. Cocoa production, its main export and largest export earner in the mid 1960’s, collapsed due to high foreign debt and competitive markets, similarly to timber production. An important pillar of the timber industry in Ghana was the start of the TIDD (Timber Industry Development Division), which originates from a variety of attempts during the 1960’s to manage Ghana’s timber resource. These ideals cumulated in the establishment of the Ghana Timber Marketing Board (GTMB) in 1963 to regulate the export of timber and wood products.13 This accumulating foreign debt decreased log production with a decline of 66% between 1970 and 1981.14 At the same time, the government invested heavily in infrastructure in the industrial sector in order to allow Ghana to reach a stage of industrialization. By 1971 there was an attempt to devalue the Ghanaian Cedi currency, however this did not occur until 1983, and so the Cedi remained high. 3.2 1980, the Economic Recovery Program (ERP) and the World Bank Timber Rehabilitation In 1980 Ghana’s GDP was at US$ 25.956 billion compared to its current US$ 40.71 billion (2012).15 In 1985, GDP fell dramatically to US$ 8.046 billion.16 Exports fell from US$ 130 million in 1973 to US$ 15 million in 1983. This fall continued to 1986. In 1984 the World Bank announced that it would institute an ERP. This was largely aimed at benefitting the 12 13 European Commission, Agriculture and Rural Devlopment, Forestry Measures 06-01-2010. Ec.europa.eu Forestry Commission of Ghana – TIDD. www.fcghana.org/TIDD 14 Federal Research Division of the Library of Congress.. The Country Studies Series, Published 1988-1999. 15 Trading Economics, Ghana World Bank.org GDP Ghana 16 10 export sector, boost the economy and furthermore reduce foreign debt in the long term. Thereafter, Ghana showed steady growth. Export volumes of goods only (% change) for Ghana in 1980 were -14.8%.17 Not only did the World Bank encourage stability but also encouraged reforms to enable steadier trade through reduced import duties and taxes on trades. The reforms also allowed farmers to keep a larger amount of their foreign exchange earnings that previously in an attempt to encourage saw mills and exporters to keep supply unchanged. In 1989, the Export Development and Investment Fund established. The World Bank also enabled a timber rehabilitation credit to Ghana for US$ 24 million to ensure that the exports of timber kept at a steady pace, after seeing the importance of the timber export sector for Ghana. After this, log production rose 65% between 1984 and 1987. Export revenues increased shockingly 665% between 1983 and 1988. All looked promising for Ghana after the World Bank initiated the ERP. However, shortly after this, by 1988, Ghana saw decreasing export revenue, decreasing log production, and a turn of events politically. The ERP would ensure that production and export would increase, with heavy investments in machinery and the industrial sector, however the rise of this foreign debt in turn would later decrease the timber production and export. Not only did the policies attached to the ERP increase the external debts, but also increase inflation rates. Since the ERP projects were foreign investments, the Ghanaian government repeatedly devalued the country’s currency to raise producer prices for exports and to encourage production, but devaluation also led to price rises on all other goods as well.18 Export volumes of goods only (% change) for Ghana in 1985 were 35.107% in comparison to 22.495% in 1990.19. The export value of timber, along with this decreasing export revenue, plummeted the years prior to the ERP and steadily rose in the years after (see diagram 2). 3.3 The 1990’s Trade continued primarily to the European Community, with Germany taking 19% of all Ghanaian exports.20 Since the initiation of the Forest Resource Management Project, part of the ERP, started in 1988, Ghana too, wanted to start controlling and managing log production. In 1989 the government banned 18 species of timber for log exports. This tough decision 17 http://www.economywatch.com/economic-statistics/Ghana/Export_Volume_Goods_Percent_Change/ 18 http://www.mongabay.com/reference/country_studies/ghana/ECONOMY.html World Bank.org Export Volumes Ghana 20 Federal Research Division of the Library of Congress. The Country Studies Series. Published 1988-1999 19 11 encouraged sustainable and environmentally friendly timber exporting. Furthermore, shortly after this ban, the government also imposed high duties on other species. Despite Ghana’s complex land tenure it is important to note here that Ghana does not have a monopoly on forest species, however are able to adopt bans or laws on species no matter to whom the land belongs to.21 Tenant farmers are however allowed to harvest trees for their own use, but not for commercial purposes.22 Therefore the government was able to impose these policies for the benefit of forest sustainability, and not for economic purposes, as a monopoly would otherwise have done. The land owners, tenant farmers and the government often resolve disputes over forest and land-use. By 1991, wood products rose to 20% of export earnings accounting for 6.9% of volume exports.23 Despite this vast increase in export earnings, the actual sales of logs decreased to 23% of export earnings in 1990, compared to 55% mid 1980’s.24 However, the price of timber had increased.25 This pattern of high price for timber and low sales reflects the one of many clear regulatory changes supporting the hypothesis. In 1995, there was a complete ban on unprocessed log exports, which was one of the most affecting changes on the timber export sector. The export value of roundwood for Ghana was 0 between 1995 and 2003.26 Although the 1990’s provided more economic stability from the timber export market, unfortunately there was a gradual decline all in all. In the 1980’s the ambition was achieve a fast effect and boost the economy through changes in reforms and in policies for export. Some critics have suggested that the government put pressure on the timber companies, and took advantage of the rising price of those species not banned, in order to gain profit and put capital back into the Ghanaian economy. Illegal timber logging also became a growing problem during the 1990’s, whether it were to the growing concern of consumers, or of governments. Illegal logging has contributed to the reduction in the forest covers of Ghana, undermining the resource base of the timber industry, loss of revenue to land owners and government, as well as the degradation of the 21 www.growingforestpartnerships.org/sites/gfp.iiedlist.org/files/docs/ghana/ghana_land_tenure-gfp_project.pdf, (Lavigne-Delville, 1998). 22 http://www.fao.org/docrep/003/ab567e/AB567E01.htm 23 24 25 26 Federal Research Division of the Library of Congress. The Country Studies Series. Published 1988-1999 Federal Research Division of the Library of Congress. The Country Studies Series. Published 1988-1999 Federal Research Division of the Library of Congress. The Country Studies Series. Published 1988-1999 FAOstat – forestry, 2013. 12 environment.27 For this reason, the EU and Ghana would later try to reduce illegal logging through different policies and regulations, such as FLEGT VAP, in accordance with Ghana’s Forest Policy 1994. 4. Regulations and Policies on Timber Logging and its Export (Ghana) 4.1 Regulation and Policy Changes in Ghana The analysis of regulations implemented by the Ghanaian government is to show that it has not caused a negative impact on the timber export, instead that is benefitted the timber export sector. This will furthermore support my hypothesis that it was European regulation that decreased timber export. To some extent there was a preference to collaborate with African countries on Europe’s behalf. Europe (Germany, Netherlands and the UK) had experienced a vast increase of imported timber during the period of the Economic Recovery Program (ERP). As previously mentioned, Germany was one of Ghana’s largest importers. The declining timber production during the late 1970’s and early 1980’s was hardly the result of a deliberate policy to reduce timber harvest, rather it was a result of a general economic decline in Ghana.28 The export of Ghana was doing so well by the end of the 1980’s that in 1991 Ghana was able to make loan repayments. Strapped for cash, one of the fastest ways to earn foreign exchange was to sell timber at an unprecedented rate on the world market.29 To look further into the issued raised, I have looked at several regulations implemented by the Ghanaian government, and an analysis on the effects on the timber market follows the regulation or policy description. 4.1.1 Forest Policy In the history of the Ghanaian timber sector, there have been two policies which called for control and management. The first being the Forest Policy 1946, approved in 1948, and the second being the Forest Policy 1994. Not only does the almost 50-decade gap between the two suggest little change in the government mind-set, but it also means that the 1994 Forest Policy was to make a large impact on the timber sector, or rather that there were no obstacles 27 www.fcghana.org, Background to VPA Analysis of export demand for Ghana’s timber products: A multivariate co-integration approach DavidM.Nanang, Journal of Forest Economics, accepted 2009, p19. 29 Ted Case Studies, Ghana Forest Loss, , http://www1.american.edu/ted/ghana.html 28 13 for exploitation before regulations were introduced. The policies imply a focus on management in timber production and not for sustainability, emphasized by the 1948 policy stating that Ghana required a sustained supply of timber for the industry, which resulted in a serious reduction of forest in the land area. This is emphasized by the Minister of Forestry of Ghana who stated that it became obvious that most of the provisions in the old policy could not adequately deal with the totality of the emerging issues.30 It is clear that the Ghanaians had taken advantage of its timber industry and used it to the point where change was necessary. The Forest Policy of 1994 addressed the urgency of sustainable forest management. The impacts of the first policy ultimately contributed to the increasing growth in numbers of the timber industries in the 1970’s.31 4.1.2 Bans In 1979, 14 timber species were banned from export in log form. 32 The Ghanaian government sought to manage the deforestation and control the demand of timber from importing countries. The list was increased to 18 in 1989.33 Later the government placed high duties on other species in order to increase their value as export products. 4.1.3 Ghana Investment Code of 1985 This Act intended to encourage foreign investors who were looking to exploit Ghana’s natural resources, whilst Ghana was experiencing economic growth and international credibility. It also included a 25% reduction on export taxes for lumber and value added products. 34 For this, the firms were given incentive packages under the investment code to encourage exports – the more a firm exported, the greater the benefits it enjoyed. This too was another way the government encouraged export of timber during the 1980’s in order to increase domestic capital accumulation. 4.1.4 Timber Industry Development Division (TIDD) 30 DR KWABENA ADJEI, Minister of Lands and Forestry, Forest Policy 1994, www.fcghana.org 31 Birikorang, G. 2001. Ghana Wood industry Study and Log Export Ban Study, Forestry Commission, Accra, Ghana 32 Richards, M., 1995. The role of demand side incentives in fine grained protection: a case study of Ghana’s tropical high forest. Forest Ecology and Management 78, 225–241. 33 Analysis of export demand for Ghana’s timber products: A multivariate co-integration approach DavidM.Nanang, Journal of Forest Economics, accepted 2009, p 50. 34 Amanor, K. S. (1999). Global Restructuring and Land Rights in Ghana. Nordiska Afrikainstitutet, Uppsala. 14 In 1985 the Ghana Timber Marketing Board, as it was known then, went through changes according to the government’s dedication to the ERP and its macro-economic policies. It was divided into two separate parts, the Timber Export Development Board (TEDB) and the Forest Products Inspection Bureau (FPIB). As the names would suggest, the TEDB focused on the exporting sector of timber and export promotion, whereas the FPIB was responsible for verifications, inspections, approvals of timber and wood, and furthermore responsible for the issuance of export permits. This too encouraged the export of timber to expand, as well as to be properly managed. 4.1.5 The ERP Years In 1983 the first devaluation on the cedi occurred and the value of the cedi was at c8.83 to US dollar 1.00, in contrast to c2.75 to US dollar 1.00 between 1980 and 1982. This made Ghana’s wood exports volatile and cheaper for the competitive international market. This meant that the capital received by timber firms was very small since it was in local currency. The firms then had to return debt obligations to commercial banks meaning that the firms received little real income and had to increase their output through export. The Forestry Commission ordered the firms to repay their loans within 12 months, and only few could accomplish this. Of the 59 borrowers, only 9 (15.3 per cent) had repaid on schedule.35 Although employment is not included as a variable in this analysis, it is important to mention the change in staff employed at timber firms. Following the ERP, the number of expatriate professionals had doubled from 6% to 12% of total employed staff.36 5. Regulations and Policies on Timber Logging and its Import (EEC/EU) 5.1 Regulations and Policies For a long time European markets have been the largest importers of African timber. Markets in Germany, Great Britain, Spain, Italy, France – and to a lesser extent Portugal – have dominated the trade.37 The direction of European import has been suggested to coincide with the relationship of old colonies of Africa. The markets of the Southern EU appear to have 35 Forestry Commission 1988:6 Owusu 2001 37 Anonymous, GlobalTimber.org.uk 36 15 been depressed in 1993 - just prior to a 50% devaluation of the predominant local currency of the region's producer countries - but otherwise their imports have been fairly stable.38 The purpose of putting regulations and policies in relation to timber export from Ghana, as well as from other African timber markets, is to show that the EEC/EU regulations were affecting the price and in turn the quantity of timber being exported. Using economic theory I can show that the price and value of timber products from Africa have increased, and therefore the quantity of exports to Europe has decreased by exogenous factors like regulation and policy. During the late 1990’s and 2000’s, when the effects of the EU regulations and policies took place, the value of timber increased and in turn the quantity of timber imported decreased. The price of timber is therefore an essential factor in this analysis and is shown later in the results of timber price fluctuations preceding regulation and policy changes. 5.1.1 The International Tropical Timber Agreement 1983 This came into force in 1985. The Agreement aims to encourage increased and further processing of tropical timber in producing member countries with a view to promoting theory industrialization and thereby increasing their export earnings to encourage members to support and develop industrial tropical timber reforestation and forest management activities and to improve marketing and distribution of tropical timber exports of producing members. In hindsight one can see that the income from the timber market was important for Ghana, as well as it was as important to keep the export sector afloat. Following this is an interesting point of how Ghana, as well as other African timber exporting countries, wanted to honestly protect the logging of timber and ensure that the timber export would be sustainable as well as keeping with European standards - which they would do by signing this Agreement – by encouraging the development of national policies aimed at sustainable utilization and conservation of tropical forests and their genetic resources, and at maintaining the ecological balance in the regions concerned.39 5.1.2 The International Tropical Timber Council It is defined within the Agreement that the council consists of all members of the Tropical Timber Organization, members being the producing parties and the consuming parties. The Intergovernmental Organizations are defined by the Agreement as including the European 38 Anonymous, GlobalTimber.org.uk 39 http://sedac.ciesin.org/entri/texts/tropical.timber.1983.html 16 Economic Community and any other intergovernmental organization having responsibilities in respect if the negotiation, conclusion and application of international agreements, in particular commodity agreements.40 Ghana is included as one of the producing members, and Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, ITALY, Netherlands and the United Kingdom (grouped as the EEC) are included as consuming countries. To show that the EU was dominating role in the Agreement, the EEC had 27.7% of the votes, the second largest number of votes allocated after Japan, which had 33%. The EEC was ranked a large contributor to the decision which entails a sense of authority over the agreement.41 5.1.3 Eco-Labelling In 1991, the European Union implemented a voluntary eco-labelling program in order to ensure that products imported into the EU came from sustainable management certified firms. This affected production in Ghana such as markets in cocoa, mango, tuna, as well as timber. 5.1.4 UK (United Kingdom) Timber Procurement Policy In 1996 a voluntary guidance was issued in the UK to advise government departments to purchase timber and timber products from sustainable and legal sources.42 However, the guidance did not have a large impact on the timber market, but it is nevertheless an important policy to mention since the majority of implementations from the EU came from the UK at the start of the 1990’s. This was the first of several policies, with others to follow thereafter; most of the policies implemented during the 1990’s were introduced by single member states, not by the EU or European Commission. The responsibility of this task lies with the supplier of timber, implying that, in this case, the Ghanaian timber firms would be responsible for selling sustainable wood products. 5.15 FSC (Forest Stewardship Council) The FSC is a global forestry certification system which was set up in 1992 with a purpose to promote environmentally appropriate, socially beneficial and economically viable management of the world’s forests.43 However, it makes note that the main purpose of this 40 http://sedac.ciesin.org/entri/texts/tropical.timber.1983.html Statistical Data and Specific Indicators (for the monitoring of the International Tropical Timber Trade) 42 National policy documents, taken from Public Procurement Policies for Forest Products and Their Impacts, FAO, 2006. 43 FSC Forest Stewardship Council-vision and mission. Fsc.org – obtained 2013-01-15 41 17 system is to promote legally harvested timber and sustainability, leaving the responsibility of economically viable management to the timber exporting governments, tied to this system. 5.1.6 ERP Revisited The importance of the ERP did not only have a positive effect on the Ghanaian economy, but also effected how the timber firms functioned. In 1983 the Government of Ghana held a conference with donors from Ghana’s largest timber importing countries, the majority of which were European member states. There they decided to encourage the use of timber for infrastructure in Ghana.44 According to MLF (1996), efforts to improve the industry through the World Bank sponsored Economic Recovery Program may have enhanced the gross production of timber, but these efforts strengthened an already high demand on the forest resource. 45 In another opinion, ‘The recovery program did not cater for developing and expanding the forest resource base’.46 5.1.7 FLEGT and VAP’s The Forest Law Enforcement, Government and Trade (FLEGT) was the first EU action plan to exclude illegal timber on the market. As previously mentioned illegal timber was a significant problem for the importing markets. It was introduced in 2005, and Ghana signed the Agreement in 2009. The Agreement refers to the 1992 Non-legally Binding Authoritative Statement of Principles for a Global Consensus on the management, conservation and sustainable development of all types of forests, as well as the 1994 Forest and Wildlife Policy of Ghana which aims at conservation and sustainable development of the nation’s forest and wildlife resources.47 It establishes a set of procedures and requirements aiming at verifying and attesting, by means of FLEGT licenses, that timber products shipped to the Community were legally produced.48 The Agreement puts pressure on the Ghanaian government through the designation of certifications and licensing of timber. Furthermore the responsibility of verifying legally produced timber is designated to Ghana to implement a system for verification. 44 Owusu J.H. Journal of Modern African Studies. (Journal of Modern African Studies, 2001, 39(1):72) 45 http://etd.lsu.edu/docs/available/etd-11072009-093300/unrestricted/Baffoe_thesis.pdf Interview, General Manager Samartex Timber Company Ltd. See Bibliography. 47 European Community, Ghana, 2009, Voluntary Partnership Agreement between the European Community and the Republic of Ghana on forest law enforcement, governance and trade in timber products into the Community 48 European Community, Ghana, 2009, Voluntary Partnership Agreement between the European Community and the Republic of Ghana on forest law enforcement, governance and trade in timber products into the Community 46 18 5.1.8 Other Restraints on the timber market in Ghana The European market was generally depressed by the end of the 1980’s as a result of recession, and buyers continued to hold large quantities of tropical wood without being able to sell, which resulted in a slow movement of trade.49 Even the rise of western and international anti-deforestation groups, such as Greenpeace, began to have an effect on the timber market, decreasing the demand for timber. Furthermore, an increasing use for materials other than wood decreased the timber market. Substitutes from plastics and aluminum, alongside a high cost of production of timber, meant that Ghana experienced a decline of exports to the EC.50 6. Empirical Findings 6.1 African timber production and export 6.1.1 Export and Value Between 1961 and 1970, Africa remained the second largest exporter of industrial roundwood as 10.53% of export in the world came from Africa.51 By analyzing the graph below (FAOstat 2013), one can see the export quantity (m3) of roundwood from three African countries, chosen to show the differences between the African countries and in comparison to Ghana, Guinea, Ghana and Central African Republic. There has been a dramatic decline in export of roundwood since 1961, with a short period of increase between 1985 and 1995 in Ghana. Diagram 1: A Graph to Show the Amount of Roundwood (m3) Exported from Guinea, Ghana and Central African Republic Between 1961 and 2012 49 Owusu J.H. Journal of Modern African Studies. (Journal of Modern African Studies, 2001, 39(1):76) 50 Interview with the General Manager of Samartex Timber, Ghana. (August 2013) FAOstat 2013 51 19 The Export Value (1000 $US) of roundwood from the same countries shows a constant low value since 1961 to a slow rise in the 2000’s, with only an exception of a short period of increase in 1994 in Ghana. (FAOstat 2013) Diagram 2: A Graph to Show the Export Value (1000 $US) of Roundwood from Guinea Ghana and Central African Republic Between 1961 and 2012 The value of timber has increased in recent years, which in turn implies that the export quantity decreases, all according to economic theory which suggests a negative correlation between the demand for a good and its price. High timber prices would reduce the quantities that would be exported from Ghana and may encourage processing in importing countries.52 The next graph shows a large group of African countries and their export quantity (m3) of roundwood between 1961 and 2012. (FAOstat 2013) Diagram 3: A Graph to Show Export Quantity (m3) of Roundwood from Several African Countries Between 1961 and 2012 Diagram 4: A Graph to Show the Export Value (1000 US dollars) of Roundwood from Several African Countries Between 1961 to 2012 (FAOstat 2013) Analysis of export demand for Ghana’s timber products: A multivariate co-integration approach DavidM.Nanang, Journal of Forest Economics, accepted 2009. 52 20 6.1.2 Exports of Timber from Africa to Europe The volume of logs and plywood consumed by Europe has been decreasing since 1998. Meanwhile, the European consumption of sawn timber is fluctuant but not declining, because it is mainly based on some specific technical requirements which only some tropical species can fulfill.53 But for the last decade the volume and the share of African exports to Europe is progressively decreasing, while they have diverted their sales towards Asia. Tropical logs as a percentage of total non-coniferous log imports into Europe declined about 50% from 1970 to 1990, indicating possible substitution opportunities for non-tropical hardwoods from other suppliers.54 The most striking examples are the Republic of Congo, where exports of logs, sawn timber, plywood, in roundwood equivalent to Europe have fallen from more than 80% to less than a surprising 15% in recent years.55 From 1970 to 1990, Europe’s overall increase in real prices for tropical log imports (22 percent) was accompanied by a substantial decrease (56 percent) in quantity of imports.56 In recent years, between 1990 and 2009, there has been a general decline in logs export to the European Union (diagram 5). Between 2005 and 2009, there is a sharp reduction in the quantity of logs export to the EU from Africa. China has grown dramatically an importer of logs. African countries have exported primarily to Europe and it is suggested that this is because of the relationship with Europe (old colonies of Great Britain) and comparatively low transportation costs. The fact was that the expatriate firms had more capital at their disposal for land purchases than local investors. This opened the way for the intrusion of large-scale 53 In 1A short analysis on the stricter European regulations on tropical hardwood imports and their side effects First version : March 2007 By Roda, Jean-Marc1, Arets, Eric J.M.M2; Lim, Hin Fui3990, 54 Historical Price Trends of Nonconiferous Tropical Logs and Sawnwood Imported to the United States, Europe, and Japan - C. Denise Ingram. 55 In 1A short analysis on the stricter European regulations on tropical hardwood imports and their side effects First version : March 2007 By Roda, Jean-Marc1, Arets, Eric J.M.M2; Lim, Hin Fui3990, 56 Historical Price Trends of Nonconiferous Tropical Logs and Sawnwood Imported to the United States, Europe, and Japan - C. Denise Ingram 21 expatriate concessionaire companies into for example southwestern Ghana. 57 Ghana is recognized as part of West Africa in this diagram since they joined the Economic Community of Western African States (ECOWAS) in 1975, whereas the others in the diagram are separate from this. Diagram 5 - West Africa and the Congo Basin - exports of logs* to China, the EU and elsewhere between 1990 and 2009 (excluding plantation logs) * excludes timber (including teak) which derived from plantations. In diagram 6, one can see an upward trend since 1990; however by looking at Ghana more specifically, there is a downward trend since 2005. Despite Ghana being the third largest exporter of quantity of timber in Africa, there is a slight reduction in later years. On the other hand, Ghana is the largest exporter of quantity of timber to the rest of the world, with a vast increase since 1992. 57 SystemTropical Forests and West African Enterprise: The Early History of the Ghana Timber TradeAuthor(s): Raymond E. DumettSource: African Economic History, No. 29 (2001), pp. 79-116( P.114) 22 Diagram 6 - West Africa and the Congo Basin - exports of timber* other than logs to China, the EU and elsewhere between 1990 and 2009. * excludes timber (including teak) which derived from plantations. This shows where regulations have taken an effect on timber export in recent years. The global market for timber import has become more competitive which can be seen by big markets such as China. In 2005 the EU adopted a regulation scheme that allowed timber to be imported to EU only from countries that had signed FLEGT (Forest Law Enforcement, Governance and Trade) Voluntary Partnership Agreements (VPA’s). The agreement states that bodies or persons designated by the exporting country are to monitor the legality of timber exported. In the case of Ghana, which signed agreements in 2006, this automatically put pressure on the government to ensure that the monitoring is carried out and meets the requirements of the Agreement. Cameroon and Republic of Congo both signed in 2010 respectively, Liberia and Central African Republic in 2011. 6.2 The Impact and Effects of Regulation and Policy by the EU on the Production and Export of Timber The International Tropical Timber Agreement of 1983 most certainly encouraged further processing of timber as seen in the diagram below, where production of roundwood between 1980 and 1983 increased, and after 1983 production remained high and steady. 23 Diagram 7: A Graph to Show the Production of Roundwood (m3) in Ghana Between 1980 and 1988 Prior to 1980, the amount of roundwood produced had remained at approximately 10 million m3 each year since 1970. By 1983 the amount produced reached 13,262,000 m3, and remained by that amount until 1989.58 Of roundwood produced, only 7000m3 were exported in 1984 compared to 318600m3 in 1987. Export value remained low at approximately 5,000 US dollars between 1980 and 1986. In 1987 value increased to 39,505 US dollars (FAOstat). In 1990, the export quantity of roundwood had decreased again to a low amount of 141285 (m3) in comparison to its peak of 1987.59 Although the quantity of tropical sawnwood imports to Europe increased, tropical lumber as a percentage of total imports of timber decreased from 44 percent in 1970 to 33 percent in 1990. In other words, while Europe’s import market for non-coniferous sawnwood expanded, the role of tropical sawnwood declined as real prices increased by 47 percent.60 The implementation of the EU eco-labelling program showed vast declines in imports, since the consumer considered the cost of timber from certified firms as too expensive. However, it is argued by the developing countries that this cost was placed by the importing firms and not the exporting firms. In line with the UK Timber Procurement Policy, the UK had a low and steady quantity of import of roundwood since 1991 and in 1993, at 25,000 m3 and in 1994, a large increase occurred reaching 848,000 m3 by the end of 1996.61 Despite this increase in imports, all 58 FAO stat – forestry database, 2013. FAOstat – forestry. 2013 60 Historical Price Trends of Nonconiferous Tropical Logs and Sawnwood Imported to the United States, Europe, and Japan - C. Denise Ingram. 61 FAOstat – forestry. 2013 59 24 imports from developing countries declined to US dollars 96.3 billion in 1991 and even more so to US dollars 91.8 billion in 1993.62 The effect of the ERP boosting infrastructure, the majority of members being from the EEC, ensured that timber would be easier to export especially with two new built ports. This in turn affected the return of investments. The firms and owners of firms would prefer to have tax returns and foreign exchange retention quotas, based on the volume of export, under the investment code.63 The FLEGT VAP with Ghana heavily affected the timber sector and its exports with Europe. Table 1 shows the export quantity of veneer sheets (m3) from Ghana to the United Kingdom between 2000 and 2010. Diagram 8: A Graph to Show Export Quantity (m3) of Veneer Sheets from Ghana to the United Kingdom between 2000 and 2010 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 Export Quantity (m3) Source: FAOstat- forestry 2013. Another example to show the effect of the FLEGT VAP is the decline of exports of sawnwood to the UK between 2000 and 2010. FAOstat – forestry. 2013 Owusu J.H. 2001, Determinants of export-oriented industrial output in Ghana:the case of formal wood processing in the era of economic recovery. The Journal of Modern African Studies 39(1),51–80. 62 63 25 Diagram 9: A Graph to Show the Export Quantity of Sawnwood (m3) from Ghana to the United Kingdom between 2000 and 2010 15000 10000 Export Quantity (m3) 5000 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 0 Source: FAOstat- forestry 2013. Furthermore, findings show that a shift in trade direction was occurring, in that the decreasing amount of timber exported to Europe was rather being exported to China. 2010 shows a vast increase in export to China for Tropical Industrial Hardwood. Diagram 10: A Graph to Show the Export Quantity of Industrial Tropical Roundwood (m3) from Ghana to China between 2000 and 2010 20000 15000 10000 Export Quantity (m3) 5000 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 0 Source: FAOstat – forestry 2013. In 2005, a rise in exports of veneer sheets to China occurred; indicating the effects of FLEGT VAP’s introduced in the same year. 26 Diagram 11: A Graph to Show the Export Quantity of Veneer Sheets (m3) from Ghana to China between 2000 and 2010 12000 10000 8000 6000 Export Quantity (m3) 4000 2000 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 0 Source: FAOstat – forestry 2013. Even sawnwood was being preferred to China, with a steady increase between 2003 and 2008, and again from 2009 to 2010. Diagram 12: A Graph to Show the Export Quantity (m3) of Sawnwood from Ghana to China between 2000 and 2010 10000 8000 6000 Export Quantity (m3) 4000 2000 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 0 Source: FAOstat – forestry 2013. This seems to show that the Ghanaian government was trying to keep exports at constant levels with the EU, but that the price of timber increased too much after the implementation of FLEGT, leading the consumers of timber in Europe to decrease their demand. This also 27 proves that Ghana cannot control their chain of supply. The demand for timber, as economic theory suggests, is negatively correlated with the price of timber. Exports of timber increased their market with China as the diagrams suggest. 6.3 The Increase of Exports after Ghanaian Regulation and Policy Changes Diagram 13: A Graph to Show Export Quantity of Roundwood (m3) of Ghana between 1970 and 2000 Source: FAOstat - forestry 2013 There have been consequences of all these changes on the export value and export quantity of timber from Ghana, the latter being shown in the above diagram. Firstly one can compare export value pre-1994 Forest Policy approval with a decreasing or stagnant quantity up until 1993 when a dramatic increase, probably due to EEC countries exploiting the low value and low cedi, and thereafter a sharp fall in exports. The ban on 18 species of wood products in 1989, as well as the difficulty of the Ghanaian economy shows an average export quantity increase of roundwood of 90,000 m3 each year between 1989 and 1994. Ultimately, Ghana had taken advantage of its forest land area, exploited it to ensure stable revenues from the timber sector, which can be seen from statistics of timber value showing little change up until the 1980’s. The consequence of the second Forest Policy 1994 and Ghana’s expansion of forest reserves show a great decline in the export sales of logs and timber, as well as increase in the value and price of timber. 28 The log export ban created inefficiency in the wood processing industry and led to low domestic price of logs which is an indicator of the increasing protection for domestic processors.64 As mentioned, Ghana sought to acquire large investments from foreign countries, often those who imported Ghana’s wood products. The majority of these were members of the EEC. The weakening Ghanaian cedi, as well as the decreased value of timber, meant that investors were happy to put capital into timber firms. For example, from 1983 through 1991, a minimum of 81% of the volume of processed wood exported was sent to EEC countries annually.65 The benefit of having an increase in expatriate staff is a small but interesting point on how firms kept a good business relationship with European buyers. The use of foreign experts also helped to establish good reputations for companies internationally.66 Even more so, business connections could be made and benefit both the Ghanaian timber firms as well as the importing firms. The importing countries and more specifically firms were more likely to make business with same-nationality staff in the timber firms to approve of the trade and export. Although the Ghanaian government made every effort to encourage their timber export, as well as regulating the types of timber, the incentives have not been outlined. The decrease in log sales during the 1970’s was due to the economic instability of the country, which importing countries were most likely experiencing too, knowing that the developing countries were at unease and not of credibility. On the other hand, the process of the ERP put Ghana on track to ensure economic growth once again. It is assumed by historians and economists alike that after this rehabilitation the timber export sector would return again to its rate of the 1970’s. This lasted until the beginning of the 1990’s. The sector was shifting. The demand for timber had increased with the majority exported to Europe; however the prices for timber increased dramatically at the same time as the global demands for timber began to shift. The once expatriate firms and good links with Africa were beginning to dissolve. The effect of global hot-topics, such as environmental sustainability, impacted Ghanaian timber production. The Ghanaian government contributed to the sector in several positive ways and hoped the export would rebound. 64 http://etd.lsu.edu/docs/available/etd-11072009-093300/unrestricted/Baffoe_thesis.pdf Owusu J.H. Journal of Modern African Studies. (Journal of Modern African Studies, 2001, 39(1):65) 66 Owusu J.H. Journal of Modern African Studies. (Journal of Modern African Studies, 2001, 39(1):69) 65 29 7. Analytical Discussion Ghana has experienced a timber export sector decline. “The cost of production as well as the effects of over-regulation and bureaucracy by the EU has placed pressure on countries such as Ghana,67 heavily reliable on timber export income, and these are two of the main reasons for the decline of timber exports. The Forestry Commission of Ghana also agrees that the EU had placed pressure of Ghana – “The main reason for Ghana to join the EU FLEGT was the need for Ghana to maintain its share in the EU timber market.”68 However, “the high cost and hence uncompetitive pricing” have contributed to this decline,69 as outside determining factors. According to the Austrian School regulation or policy changes will always have negative effects on either the producer or consumer, and therefore one must question the necessity of its implement. In some cases regulations can have counter-effects, and new regulations must replace the old. “Ghana’s trade regulations have not had negative effects on the timber export.”70 This supports my data showing Ghanaian regulation and policy changes on the timber market. The attempts to introduce regulation through species-bans, forest policy and the formation of TIDD, have only encouraged Ghanaian timber industries to manage production and businesses correctly and to consider production in sustainable amounts. It is also clear from this thesis that there is a scarcity of data and research into the demand of timber or wood products. Without this, it is difficult to judge whether a regulation can benefit trade and what its long-term effects may be. Economic theory in this thesis reflects the patterns of price and export. When theory implies that economic regulation benefits trade, examples I have taken up argue these theories, such as FLEGT VAP’s, the UK Timber Procurement Policy and the FSC, which show that after their enforcement, Ghana’s export to Europe has decreased. Examples to show that Ghana has increased its timber export from the introduction of regulations and policy changes are the Forest Policy of 1994, timber species bans and the Ghana Investment Code of 1985. My empirical findings have shown that a decrease in timber export occurred, and is related to the intrusion of European regulations and policies. I used the Ghanaian government 67 Interview, General Manager of Smarartex timber & Plywood Ltd. August 2013. Fcghana.org – EU FLEGT initiative 69 Interview, General Manager of Smarartex timber & Plywood Ltd. August 2013. 70 Interview, General Manager of Smarartex timber & Plywood Ltd. August 2013. 68 30 regulations to show a comparison that European regulations have had a negative effect on timber export, rather that positive. The main difference between these regulations and their effect is that regulations with the objective to provide environmental sustainability and common interest in protecting the nature of the forests (EU regulations) cannot provide encouragement for timber export. Those with an objective to maintaining timber export growth as well as effective management have encouraged timber export growth but have not maintained sustainability (Ghanaian regulations). This implies that regulations can benefit the environment at a price (reduced export), or harm the environment (increased export). “Over-regulation and bureaucracy are problems which face the timber industries today in LED-countries”.71 Environmental policies, such as FLEGT, have at least filled their purpose, to ensure sustainable deforestation, as well as reducing illegal logging. The negative effects are shown in my empirical findings, they have increased the value of timber and thereby reduced exports, meaning that Ghana will have to look elsewhere in order to maintain economic growth from the timber market. Furthermore, they have pushed their exports elsewhere. This may also have a contradictory effect, in that illegal logging will continue to other markets. Other regulations, such as the 1983 International Tropical Timber Agreement, did not have environmental sustainability as their interest. It was more an approach of how to increase production and export. This thesis is partly limited by the lack of research in the negative economic effects of environmental regulation since the long-term effects are yet to be seen. Looking into the future, this topic of environmental economics will become increasingly important and questions like ‘How will developing countries shift their markets?’ and ‘How can we maintain economic growth as well as environmental sustainability?’ will dominate the research. 71 Interview, General Manager of Smarartex timber & Plywood Ltd. August 2013. 31 8 Bibliography 8.1 Literature and Articles Amanor, K. S. (1999). “Global Restructuring and Land Rights in Ghana.” Nordiska Afrikainstitutet, Uppsala. Research Report no. 108, pp. 1-161. Baumol and Oates. (1988) The Theory of Environmental Policy. Cambridge, UK. Cambridge University Press. Birikorang , G., R. Okai, K. Asenso-Okyere, S. Afrane, and G. Robinson (2001) Ghana Wood industry Study and Log Export Ban Study. Forestry Commission report to the Ministry of Lands and Forestry. Forestry Comission, Accra Ghana Cordato R., (2004) “Toward an Austrian theory of environmental economics”. The Quarterly Journal of Austrian Economics Volume 7, No. 1, pp. 3-16. Dumett Raymond E. (2001) “System Tropical Forests and West African Enterprise: The Early History of the Ghana Timber Trade.” African Economic History, No. 29, pp. 79-116. Ingram C. Denis. (1993) Historical Price Trends of Non-coniferous Tropical Logs and Sawnwood Imported to the United States, Europe and Japan. U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Forest Service, Forest Products Laboratory. Magee, Stephen P, William A. Brock, and Leslie Young. (1989) Black Hole Tariffs and Endogenous Policy Theory. Cambridge, UK. Cambridge University Press. Nanang David M. (2010) “Analysis of export demand for Ghana’s timber products: A multivariate co-integration approach.” Journal of Forest Economics. vol. 16, issue 1, pp. 4761. Owusu J.H. (2001) “Determinants of export-oriented industrial output in Ghana: the case of formal wood processing in the era of economic recovery.” Journal of Modern African Studies. Volume 39, issue 1, pp. 51-80. Richards, M. (1995) “The role of demand side incentives in fine grained protection: a case study of Ghana’s tropical high forest.” Forest Ecology and Management 78, pp. 225–241. Roda, Jean-Marc1, Arets, Eric J.M.M2; Lim, Hin Fui. (March 2007) “A short analysis on the stricter European regulations on tropical hardwood imports and their side effects.” Working Paper, 1st version, pp. 1-11. 32 Stigler, George J. (1971) “The theory of economic regulation.” Bell Journal of Economics and Management Science 2, volume 2, no. 1, pp. 3-21. 8.2 Other Literature The European Commission homepage - Ec.europa.eu FAOstat-Forestry, homepage – www.faostat3.fao.org World Bank homepage – www.worldbank.org The Forestry Commission of Ghana, homepage – www.ghanatimber.org GlobalTimber.org.uk National policy documents, taken from Public Procurement Policies for Forest Products and Their Impacts, FAO, 2006. Federal Research Division of the Library of Congress. The Country Studies Series Published 1988-1999. Interview: General Manager at Samartex Timber & Plywood Company Limited, established in 1995. Hitherto, the company was known as African Timber & Plywood Company (AT&P) which had been in existence since 1947 under the UAC group of companies. Samartex Timber & Plywood Company Limited took over AT&P at a time when it was saddled with a myriad of problems including mismanagement and a disastrous fire outbreak, which had left the company’s facilities in chaos. Today, Samartex is one of the largest private sawnmills in Ghana and exports are regulated through FLEGT. (samartex.com.gh) 33