A pan-Arctic synthesis of potential CH4 and CO2 production under saturated conditions Treat et al. Supplemental materials Introduction The relative amounts of CH4 and anaerobic CO2 produced are a function of methanogenic pathways that can generate both CH4 and CO2 and other anaerobic pathways that generate CO2 (e.g., denitrification, sulfate reduction). Here we present a brief overview of the drivers of variation in CH4 and CO2 production via methanogenic pathways. Methane production is a terminal decomposition process that can occur through two pathways: acetoclastic methanogenesis of acetate or autotrophic reduction of CO2 and hydrogen (H2). The relative importance of each pathway varies with depth (Hornibrook et al. 1997; Nilsson and Oquist 2009), temperature (Bergman et al. 1999; Nilsson and Oquist 2009; Updegraff et al. 1995; Yavitt et al. 1987) and pH (Bergman et al. 1999; Nilsson and Oquist 2009; Yavitt et al. 1987). There is also substantial variation among vegetation types (Hines et al. 2008) and sites. Acetoclastic methanogenesis is less common in Alaskan peatlands (Hines et al. 2001; Rooney-Varga et al. 2007) than other peatlands and results in more CO2 production relative to CH4 production. Furthermore, changes in vegetation following permafrost thaw may shift the dynamics of CH4 production pathways, thus altering relative amounts of CO2 and CH4 production (Hodgkins et al. 2014; McCalley et al. 2014). S1 Methane production within soils is directly controlled by several factors: environmental conditions, availability of substrate, and methanogen presence and viability. Methanogens are obligate anaerobes, so favorable conditions for CH4 production necessitate anoxia. Furthermore, CH4 production has a low thermodynamic energy yield and is inhibited by the presence of more energetically favorable alternate electron acceptors such as sulfate, iron, nitrogen, and manganese (Duddleston et al. 2002; Knorr and Blodau 2009). Water table fluctuations can result in the oxidation and regeneration of electron acceptors due to exposure to oxygen, which results in the inhibition of CH4 production for extended periods of time even after soils become anaerobic again, until the more favorable alternate electron acceptors have been reduced. Temperature is positively related to CH4 production (Lupascu et al. 2012; Yavitt et al. 2006), although the temperature response is mediated by substrate quality (Lupascu et al. 2012), similar to aerobic decomposition (Davidson and Janssens 2006). CH4 production is also dependent on pH (Bergman et al. 1998; Valentine et al. 1994, Dunfield et al. 1993). If favorable anaerobic conditions for CH4 production are created in permafrost or panarctic soils, we do not yet know whether all soils will produce CH4, which likely depends on substrate availability and methanogens. Substrate availability controls CH4 production in several ways. First, there is the abundance of substrates for methanogenesis (Bergman et al. 1998; Chanton et al. 1995; Duddleston et al. 2002; Hines et al. 2008). Substrates for methanogenesis are diverse fermentation products such as acetate, H2, CO2, formate, methanol, and methylamines. The fermentation reactions that produce substrates for methanogens are thermodynamically driven by the consumption of end products due to the low-energy S2 yields of these microbially-mitigated processes (c.f. Conrad 1999). Overall, the substrate availability for methanogenesis and fermentation reactions are controlled by the amount, type, and quality of organic matter inputs into anoxic zone. Substrate quality for anaerobic decomposition differs by plant type, extent of organic matter degradation prior to anoxic conditions, and the form of organic matter inputs—i.e., roots, leaf litter, or exudates (Bergman et al. 1998; Hines et al. 2008; Kuder and Kruge 2001; Nilsson and Oquist 2009). Using a modeling framework, Nilsson and Öquist (2009) determined that the sources of organic matter in the anoxic zone were mainly derived from root litter and, to a lesser extent, root exudates. CH4 production and field fluxes are also related to plant species composition (Bergman et al. 1998; Bubier 1995; Hines et al. 2008; Olefeldt et al. 2012) and rates of ecosystem productivity (Olefeldt et al. 2012; Whiting and Chanton 1993) through the decomposition of recently-fixed organic matter that is allocated to plant roots (Chanton et al. 1995; Coles and Yavitt 2004; Prater et al. 2007; Strom et al. 2003). Finally, CH4 production is a microbially mediated process that depends on the presence and viability of microbial communities. A syntrophy between fermenter and methanogen communities exists because methanogens utilize the byproducts of fermentation and allow these low-energy yield fermentation reactions to proceed (Schink 1997). Disruption of the syntrophic associations can result in the accumulation of fermentation products or the inhibition of methanogenesis by substrate depletion (Beer and Blodau 2007; Conrad 1999; Nilsson and Oquist 2009; Schink 1997). A recent study using advanced microbial techniques has found that methanogen abundance increases with depth in the top 20 cm (Tveit et al. 2013). This suggests that CH4 production may be S3 limited by methanogen abundance at the surface, where dry conditions are not favorable for CH4 production; in other arctic soils, methanogens were only found in soils that were saturated for most of the growing season (Hoj et al. 2006). Methanogen communities can be dynamic over time due to permafrost thaw; in thawing permafrost, an increase in methanogen relative abundance occurred immediately after thaw (Mackelprang et al. 2011). Additionally, presence of a specific methanogen, Candidatus ‘Methanoflorens stordalenmirensis, was found to be the most significant predictor of CH4 fluxes among sites in a permafrost thaw gradient (McCalley et al. 2014). However, seasonal changes in methanogen community abundance and composition have not been detected in permafrost ecosystems (Juottonen et al. 2008). Additionally, methanogen community composition may differ between depths (Galand et al. 2002), vegetation types (RooneyVarga et al. 2007) and ecosystem types (Basiliko et al. 2003; Juottonen et al. 2005). Finally, due to the low energy yields provided by anaerobic decomposition, methanogen communities grow slowly; the low abundance of active methanogens may limit potential CH4 production in incubations, especially with short incubation times (Yavitt et al. 2006). Permafrost ecosystems contain large amounts of old but potentially labile soil organic matter (SOM) that has been thermally protected from decomposition (Dutta et al. 2006; Schuur et al. 2009; Zimov et al. 2006). We do not yet know whether all the SOM is vulnerable to decomposition under anaerobic conditions, nor the relative partitioning between anaerobic CO2 and CH4 production, which will ultimately affect net radiative forcing from permafrost thaw. Furthermore, we expect vegetation communities to shift with permafrost thaw and between anaerobic and aerobic conditions (Johansson et al. 2006), which will alter pathways of anaerobic decomposition (Hines et al. 2008). Carbon S4 mineralization rates during anaerobic incubations are high from some sites, but not others, due to differences in permafrost history and organic matter quality among sites (Lee et al. 2012; Treat et al. 2014). It is likely that this results from an interaction between favorable conditions for CH4 production, substrate availability, and methanogen communities. However, we lack a widespread understanding of these interactions due to the difficulties of conducting incubations to account for interactions between all potential factors; here we use existing incubation studies to assess how anaerobic decomposition varies within and between sites. Methods Aggregate dataset vs. full dataset The dataset of anaerobic CH4 and CO2 production included incubation studies that varied in terms of incubation length, incubation temperature, and sample depth. The magnitude of CH4 production varied widely among samples and over the duration of the experiments (Figure S1), whereas CO2 production declined with time as labile substrate was depleted (Figure S2). We observed significant variation in lag times before maximum CH4 production rates among samples (Figure S3; Table 2), which was likely due to different environmental conditions and microbial communities, as well as differing incubation lengths and number of production measurements. This necessitated using maximum CH4 production rates instead of mean CH4 production in the aggregated data set (Figures S1, S3). CH4 production varied predictably with depth (Figure S4); due to this co-linearity and our interest in trends in CH4 production with depth, we accounted for depth in the mixed model analysis as a fixed effect. We did not standardize production S5 measurements by temperature because most studies did not incubate at multiple temperatures and for those that did, Q10 values among studies were highly variable (0.77 to 2.18 for CO2; 0.43 to 316 for CH4), so selecting a single Q10 to apply to all studies would likely introduce large error in the temperature standardized estimates. Instead, we included incubation temperature as a fixed effect in our mixed model analysis. We calculated both mean daily CO2:CH4 production (in main text) and the instantaneous CO2:CH4 production on the day of maximum CH4 production, and data trends were similar (Table 2, Table S1). Breakdown of ancillary data We collected ancillary measurements for samples including categorical site descriptions, environmental conditions, vegetation descriptions, and other physical soil properties. The number of measurements included in each biome, landscape position, and vegetation category as well as the number of measurements reporting ancillary variables are reported for the aggregated dataset (Table S2). To estimate missing ancillary data (% C, bulk density), we developed linear regressions to predict % C and bulk density using depth and soil type (Table S3; Figure S5). The relationship used to predict % C for organic soils is limited to depths < 1m. Bulk density predictions were significantly improved by using the categorical depth predictor (3 depth increments: 0 – 20 cm, 20 – 100 cm, and > 100 cm) compared to the continuous depth prediction (F1,95 = 5.03, P = 0.03; AICcat = 46.72, AICcont = 49.87). Multi-dimensional analysis S6 We performed multivariate ordination to graphically explore the sources of variation in the CH4 flux data and their degree of similarity between the individual study sites and best predictor variables obtained from step-wise regression (Table 4). We conducted Non-metric Multidimensional Scaling (NMDS; Kruskal, 1964) using the vegan package (Version 2.0-2) in R v.2.8.1(R Development Core Team, Vienna, Austria). We chose small number of axes (k=3) a priori, and the data were fit to those dimensions. NMDS is a numerical technique that iteratively seeks a solution and stops after finding an acceptable solution. We pre-specified 25 such iterations after which convergence of solutions was attained. Unlike other ordination methods, NMDS does not assume linear or modal relationships; this was the best method of ordination for our dataset. Response variables used for the NMDS analysis were: molar ratio of CH4:CO2, maximum CH4 production (µg CH4-C gC-1 hr-1), and mean CO2 production (µg CO2-C gC-1 hr-1). We performed deterministic imputation using linear regression predictions to estimate missing values for molar ratio of CH4:CO2 and CO2 production (µg CO2-C gC-1 hr-1) before proceeding with the ordination analysis. The imputation procedure was conducted using the mice package (Version 2.21) in R. The data were subsequently square-root transformed and then submitted to Wisconsin double standardization using the default routine of metaMDS function in vegan. Ordination scores from NMDS were derived from pH, depth (active layer and permafrost), incubation temperature and percent C loss as CO2 and CH4. NMDS scores for the predictive variables were obtained using Bray-Curtis distance matrix (k = 2) generated previously with metaMDS function of vegan. The envfit function was used to S7 visualize relationships between CH4 flux data and NMDS scores, which were correlated with the predictor variables and mapped to the multi-dimensional space. Results Carbon emissions during anaerobic decomposition were correlated with the % C in the soil, pH and incubation temperature. The amount of CO2 and CH4 produced during anaerobic incubations was significantly, but weakly positively correlated with the % C in the soil (Figure S6). Both relationships were significant (P < 0.0001) but % C explained little variability among production rates (15% and 18% for CH4 and CO2, respectively). Maximum CH4 production during anaerobic incubations was significantly correlated with an interaction between soil pH and incubation temperature (Figure S7). S8 Table S1. Median CO2:CH4 production on the day of maximum CH4 production, excluding samples in which maximum CH4 production occurred after day 150 (n = 193). Category Median CO2:CH4 Temperature <10°C 35 10-20°C 48 >20°C 100 Relative water table position Dry 98 Fluctuating 56 Inundated 32 Depth 0 - 20 cm 16 20 – 100 cm 136 > 100 cm 1014 Vascular vegetation Graminoids 34 Shrubs 31 Trees 2410 Moss type Sphagnum 28 Other mosses 221 No moss 36 Landscape position Drained Lake 34 Flood plain 353 Lowland 2410 Upland 31 Wetland 19 Biome Boreal 1288 Tundra 15 Soil type Organic 42 Mineral 59 Permafrost Active layer 32 Permafrost 1068 No permafrost 80 S9 Table S2. Number of measurements in the aggregated dataset for each category, and number of studies that reported ancillary data (e.g., pH, %C, %N). The number of measurements for temperature, depth, water table position and landscape position can be found in Table 2. Variable # of Samples Biome Boreal Tundra Dominant vascular plant Graminoid Shrub Tree Moss type None Sphagnum Other moss types Permafrost present/absent Present Absent Permafrost/active layer Active layer Permafrost Soil type Mineral Organic Cryoturbated O/M pH %C %N Bulk density Water content 303 122 181 256 150 70 36 284 58 171 55 303 219 84 219 175 44 303 71 230 2 243 188 239 100 126 S10 Table S3. Linear models used to estimate missing % C and bulk density values. Predictor Estimate Error P predictor F-values (df) r2 %C Intercept 7.4868 1.3294 < 0.0001 F3,203 = 200 0.75 Organic Soil 35.1313 1.6772 < 0.0001 Depth (cm) -0.0029 0.0026 0.28 Organic soil x depth -0.1292 0.0281 < 0.0001 Bulk density (g cm-3) Mineral: 0 – 20 cm Mineral: 20 -100 cm Organic: 0 – 20 cm Organic: 20 – 100 cm 0.812 0.910 0.090 0.263 0.102 0.185 0.012 0.028 < 0.0001 < 0.0001 0.624 < 0.0001 F5,95 = 70.5 0.79 S11 Figure S1. Rates of CH4 production for all incubations measurements included in the full dataset by sample day. The aggregated dataset included maximum CH4 production for each sample. S12 Figure S2. Rates of CO2 production for all incubations measurements included in the full dataset over time. S13 Figure S3. Using the daily CH4 production to maximum CH4 production ratio, we calculated the lag time before maximum CH4 production, which occurs on Day 0 in this figure, during each incubation experiment. The exponential decay of CH4 production rates (k) occurs following maximum CH4 production on Day 0. A comparison of lag times and decay rates are shown for differing relative water table positions (dry, fluctuating, and saturated samples). S14 Figure S4. For all depths included in study (a) Maximum CH4 production rates, (b) mean CO2 production, and (c) and CO2:CH4 production for organic (dark circles) and mineral (gray triangles) soil types. Note log-scale for CO2:CH4 production. S15 Figure S5. Relationship between %C and depth for top 250 cm of soils. Also plotted are the regression lines for the empirical relationship developed between % C, depth, and soil type. Regression coefficients are found in Table S3. S16 Figure S6. Relationships between % C in soils and CH4 production (top) and CO2 production (bottom) in anaerobic incubations. Both relationships were significant (P < 0.0001) but % C explained little variability among production rates (15% and 18% for CH4 and CO2, respectively). S17 Figure S7. The relationship between pH and maximum CH4 production was dependent on incubation temperature (Chi2 = 35, df = 4, P < 0.001). Note log scale for maximum CH4 production rates. S18 Figure S8. Non-metric Multidimensional Scaling of CH4:CO2 production, mean CH4 production (µg CH4-C gC-1 hr-1), maximum CH4 production (µg CH4-C gC-1 hr-1), and CO2 production (µg CO2-C gC-1 hr-1) from combined dataset of measurements and imputation. (a) Data points represent ordination scores grouped by water table position (Dry, Fluctuating and Inundated) based on Bray-Curtis dissimilarity matrix (left). (b) Ordination scores indexed by number of observations show clustering by incubation temperature bin (black: High, > 20 oC; dark gray: Mid, 10 – 20 oC; and light gray: Low, < 10 oC). S19 Figure S9. Fit showing vectors of continuous predictor variables: pH and %C loss; and centroids of levels of the class variable, depth (Active Layer, AL and Permafrost, PF). Data points represent ordination scores grouped by water table position (Dry, Fluctuating and Inundated) based on Bray-Curtis dissimilarity matrix. Arrows show direction of the increasing gradient, and length of the arrow is proportional to the correlation between predictor variable and the ordination. Text labels for ordination scores are shown based on priority assigned to points representing highest CH4 flux. S20 Supplemental references Basiliko, N., J. B. Yavitt, P. M. 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