Contributions of lateral flow and groundwater to the spatio-temporal variation of irrigated rice yields and water productivity in a West-African inland valley Petra Schmitter1,2,3, Sander J. Zwart1, Alexandre Danvi,,5, Félix Gbaguidi5 1 Africa Rice Center, Cotonou, Benin Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, National University of Singapore, Singapore 3 Present address: International Water Management Institute, East Africa & Nile Basin Office, Addis, Ethiopia 4 Department of Geography, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany 5 Inland Valley Unit, Directorate of Rural Engineering, Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries, Porto Novo, Benin 2 Abstract Water management techniques to elevate rice yields and productive use of water resources in Africa frequently lack a substantial spatial assessment as they are often based on plot level measurements without taking into account toposequential effects present in the landscape. These effects have been shown to significantly affect spatio-temporal variations in water availability and rice productivity in Asia. Therefore, this study addresses the spatio-temporal variations of the various water components within irrigated toposequences in an African inland valley and assesses its effect on water productivity and respective rice yields for two irrigation practices: i) continuous flooding (CF), a well-known water management practice in rice cultivation used worldwide and ii) a reduced irrigation scheme (RI) where irrigation is applied every 5 days resulting in a 1-2 cm water layer after irrigation. The lateral flow observed in the inland valley had a strong two dimensional character, contributing to water gains between fields, located at the same toposequential level as well as along toposequences. The toposequential effect on sub-surface hydrological processes masked the overall effect of water management treatment on rice production. Additionally, the associated water productivity (WP) was not found to differ significantly between the treatments when standard calculations (i.e. net irrigation and evapotranspiration) were used but a clear toposequential effect was found for the fertilized lower lying fields when the net irrigation was corrected by the lateral flow component. Results of the established mixed regression model indicated that based on the groundwater table, rainfall and standard soil physico-chemical characteristics rice yields can be predicted in these African inland valleys under continuous flooding and reduced irrigation practices. Validation of the established regression function of inland valleys, representing various groundwater tables in the region, could lead to improved regression functions suitable to estimate spatial 1 variation in rice production and water consumption across scales as affected by water management, fertilizer application and groundwater tables. Keywords: Groundwater, Irrigation, Rice, Water management, Water productivity, West-Africa 2 1 1 Introduction 2 African countries depend on 40% of international food markets and rice imports, mostly from Southeast 3 Asia, to fulfil their demands (Tsujimoto et al., 2013). In 2011, 11 million tons of rice was produced in West 4 Africa and an additional 6.3 million was imported to meet its growing rice demand (FAO Stat, 2011). This 5 dependency on food markets makes West-African countries vulnerable to price shocks such as those 6 witnessed in 2008 (Seck et al., 2013), which can lead to political instability and social unrest. Most West- 7 African countries have developed National Rice Sector Development Strategies outlining the pathways for 8 self-sufficiency by the year 2018. The development of new irrigated rice systems in lowland environments 9 and intensification of lowland rice productivity through rehabilitation of irrigation infrastructure are often 10 prioritized by national governments to increase national rice production. Since the food crisis in 2008, a 11 strong growth in rice production has been witnessed in Sub-Saharan African, which has been attributed to 12 a 70% increase in productivity and 30% area expansion (Saito et al., 2013). However, achievements to 13 increase national production and become self-sufficient are still outpaced by a strong growth in consumer 14 demands. 15 16 Over the past decade, rice consumption has increased exponentially and become one of the main food items 17 in household diets (Becker and Johnson, 2001). With exception of Egypt and Senegal, the productivity in 18 African rice systems is still low compared to Asia. Average paddy rice yields range from a low 0.85 ton ha- 19 1 20 2.6 ton ha-1. Reasons for this low productivity can be attributed to bio-physical and socio-economic 21 constraints found at many levels (Djagba et al., 2014) and include sub-optimal functioning markets for 22 acquiring fertilizers and commercialization of rice products, lack of financial services to make necessary 23 investments for intensification, poor management and maintenance of irrigation infrastructures, insufficient 24 national policies, amongst others (Saito et al., 2014). (Gambia), a moderate 3.3 ton ha-1 (Benin) to 5.3 ton ha-1 (Mauretania), resulting in a regional average of 25 26 In West Africa the inland valleys are a common landscape and believed to have great potential for rice 27 development (Rodenburg et al., 2014). This counts especially for those located in the agro-ecological 28 Guinea savannah zone due to the favourable rainfall patterns and the shallow groundwater to flooding water 29 tables in the rainy season (Andriesse and Fresco, 1991). However, high inter-annual variability of 30 precipitation as well as the onset of the rainy season poses large uncertainties for rainfed agriculture (Gruber 31 et al., 2009). As such, these inland valleys, which are characterized by coarse to medium textured soils with 32 low water retention potential (Andriesse and Fresco, 1991), remain, to date, largely underutilized and if 33 cultivated, restricted to one crop in the rainy season due to the absence of adequate irrigation systems 3 34 (Djagba et al., 2014; Saïdou and Kossou, 2009). Irrigated rice production in these valleys remains low and 35 only reaches 2% of its total potential according to Gruber et al. (2009). Therefore, as many of the inland 36 valley rice systems are rainfed, field based water management strategies such as bunds, levelling or drainage 37 systems are frequently absent (Worou et al., 2013). In those regions where irrigation systems are present, 38 poor infrastructure and maintenance lead to sub-optimal water availability and hence low rice production 39 (Djagba et al., 2014; Totin et al., 2012). 40 41 To improve rice yields and water productivity, research experiments in the region have been carried out to 42 study the effect of bunding and levelling, which in Asia are inherent practices in the so called Sawah system, 43 on improving water productivity and consecutively rice production (Becker and Johnson, 2001; Rodenburg 44 et al., 2014; Worou et al., 2012, 2013). Subsequently, water saving techniques such as alternate wetting 45 drying (AWD) and the system of rice intensification (SRI) have been tested to elevate rice yields in the 46 region (de Vries et al., 2010; Krupnik et al., 2012). These studies are based on plot level measurements in 47 controlled environments that try to eliminate the interaction between the plots. However, due to field 48 conditions in the inland valleys, toposequential effects along the slopes are present in the landscape and 49 will influence water distribution among fields and subsequently rice productivity. 50 51 Lateral flow through bunds as well as sub-surface drainage in coarse to medium textured soil is substantial 52 in Asian rice paddy systems (Janssen and Lennartz, 2009; Tsubo et al., 2005). Due to the spatial variability 53 of the soils physical and chemical properties within toposequences, large variations can be expected of 54 water balance components as well as rice performance (Tsubo et al., 2007). Tsubo et al. (2005) observed 55 water gains up to 9.8 mm day-1 due to lateral flow in lower lying rainfed rice fields along toposequences in 56 Thailand. In a similar study in Laos, Tsubo et al. (2006) positively linked the water gain in these lower 57 lying positions with increasing grain yields. As irrigation water alters soil physico-chemical characteristics 58 due to sediment deposits along cascades with higher sandy – low organic matter content in the upper lying 59 paddies (Schmitter et al., 2010), negatively affecting rice productivity (Schmitter et al., 2011), a similar 60 variability of lateral flow components can be expected within irrigated toposequences. 61 62 Lateral flow losses respectively gains, are often not accounted for when comparing water productivity of 63 new irrigation practices as water productivity is either calculated based on evapotranspiration or net 64 irrigation (i.e. rainfall and irrigation) (Zwart, 2013). Moreover, shallow groundwater tables can significantly 65 contribute to water productivity of rice systems. Shen et al. (2014) used stable isotope techniques and 66 showed that 80% of the water uptake under a continuous flooding scheme in Jiangxi Province, China was 67 attributed to soil water uptake within the first 10 cm of the soil profile due to the shallow water table. 4 68 69 In the African inland valleys however, little is known about spatial variation of water losses, its significance 70 when assessing water saving techniques and its impact on rice productivity. A greater understanding of the 71 variation along a toposequence is believed to improve irrigation system design and management, which 72 may lead to higher performance of rice-based production systems. The purpose of this study is twofold. 73 Firstly, we aimed to assess the spatio-temporal variations of the hydrological balance within irrigated 74 toposequences in an inland valley located in Benin and assessed its impact on water productivity and rice 75 yields. Two irrigation practices along toposequences were evaluated: i) continuous flooding (CF), a well- 76 known water management practice in rice cultivation used worldwide, and ii) a reduced irrigation scheme 77 (RI) where irrigation is applied every 5 days resulting in a 1-2 cm water layer after irrigation. Additionally, 78 fertilizer experiments were performed to assess the effect of water management on nutrient availability and 79 therefore rice production. Each water management treatment had two fertilizer treatments: i) zero fertilizer 80 and ii) fertilizer application according to the local recommendations. The second aim of this study was to 81 predict the spatial variation of rice productivity in the inland valley toposequences. A mixed regression 82 model was developed to predict the spatio-temporal variation of rice yields along toposequences as affected 83 by the water availability, soil nutrient status and groundwater table. Such a model could help irrigation 84 managers and farmers to recommend and apply site-specific management practices to improve rice yield 85 and use water resources efficiently. 86 2 87 2.1 88 The experiment was conducted during four seasons (2011-2012) in the inland valley of Bamé, Zagnanado 89 commune, 100 km north of Cotonou (7°12’N, 2°24’E, elevation of 36 m a.s.l.). The inland valley is 90 delineated by two perennial streams both draining to the Ouémé river downstream of the experimental site. 91 The upland area, draining towards the inland valley, is mainly under shifting cultivation with the main crops 92 being maize (Zea mays L.), cassava (Manihot esculenta Crantz), groundnut (Arachis hypogaea), cowpea 93 (Vigna spp.) and sweet potato (Ipomoea batatas) and has an average slope of 1 to 2%. The inland valleys 94 are used mainly for rice (Oryza sativa L.) production, sugar cane (Saccharum officinarum), taro (Colocasia 95 esculenta) and vegetables. The soils are hydromorphic alluvial sandy-loam soils with a shallow 96 groundwater to standing water tables all year round (Table 1). Methodology Experimental site 97 5 98 Precipitation follows a bimodal pattern (Figure 1). The longer rainy season runs from March to July and 99 shows higher variability and more erratic rainfall events. The shorter season from September to October is 100 characterized by lower intensities and less variability. 101 2.2 102 The experiment was conducted for four consecutive seasons over two years in 2011 and 2012 (Table 1). 103 The first and third season were conducted from February/March till May/June, covering the drier season 104 with lower groundwater tables and few erratic rainfalls. The second and fourth season were conducted 105 during the wetter season extending from July/August till November/December. This period is characterized 106 by a higher groundwater table and higher occurrence of less intensive rainfall. An automatic weather station 107 (DeltaT, WS-GP1) with a tipping bucket rain gauge (0.2 mm accuracy) was installed measuring minimum 108 and maximum air temperature (°C), relative humidity (%), solar radiation (kW.m-2) and wind speed (m s-1) 109 (Table 1). In total 1096 mm of rainfall was recorded in 2011 while 1132 mm was measured in 2012. Experimental design 110 111 The experimental layout followed a split-split plot toposequential design resulting in 8 toposequences, 112 consisting out of 6 successive fields each with an area of 100 m2 covering a total of 48 fields (0.48 ha) 113 (Figure 2). Difference in elevation between successive fields within a toposequence was determined by 114 measuring the difference in bund height. The upper fields of the toposequence received water from the main 115 irrigation channel. Irrigation and drainage channels were constructed parallel to the toposequences to divert 116 water to and from each field separately (Figure 2). All fields were bunded but not shielded to allow water 117 losses due to sub-surface lateral flow. As rice cultivation is a relatively young agricultural practice in the 118 area no hard pan is present at 30 cm below the soil surface. Within each repetition, water treatment was the 119 main factor and fertilizer application the sub-factor. Firstly, the water treatment was randomized followed 120 by the fertilizer treatment within the water management treatment. In order to avoid fertilizer contamination 121 each field was irrigated separately and the same fertilizer treatment was applied for all 6 fields in one 122 toposequence (Figure 2). The two water management treatments were: i) continuous flooding (CF) 123 (ponding water table) and ii) reduced irrigation (RI) (no ponding water table). The ponding water layer in 124 the fields under CF were measured on a daily basis and received, when necessary, irrigation to maintain a 125 ponding water layer around 5 cm during each cropping season till maximum tillering and 10 cm till two 126 weeks after flowering. Fields under the reduced irrigation treatment (RI) were irrigated till the ponding 127 table reached 1-2 cm every five days. When necessary, fields were drained after rainfall and after irrigation 128 to remove excess water from the fields in order to maintain the necessary water level or soil saturation, 129 respectively. 130 6 131 The two fertilizer sub-treatments were: (i) no fertilizer application (-F) and ii) fertilizer (+F) according to 132 Africa Rice recommendations for the chosen variety, via split application which resulted in a total 133 application of 105 kg N ha-1, 84 kg P ha-1 and 42 kg K ha-1. The first dressing applied at transplanting 134 entailed 40% N, 100% P and 100% K of the total amount in the form of NPK. No irrigation was performed 135 until four days after fertilizer application. The second and third dressings, each contained 30% N of the 136 total amount of fertilizer in the form of Urea and were applied after weeding at maximum tillering and at 137 flowering. The fertilizer application (+F) treatment assisted in assessing rice and water productivity in 138 absence of nutrient availability for the various water management strategies while the unfertilized fields (- 139 F) revealed the rice and water productivity due to inherent soil fertility. The latter one is of importance in 140 Africa as fertilizers are not always available on the market; farmers cannot afford them or choose not to 141 apply fertilizers. 142 2.3 143 For all four seasons, the same lowland Nerica variety Nerica-L-19 was used. In order to assess crop 144 performance in each field, nine sub-plots of 1 m2 were marked within each 100 m2 plot. The distance of 145 each sub-plot was measured according to the x and y direction of the experimental layout where the upper 146 left corner of the RI–F treatment (Repetition 2) was taken as origin (Figure 2). Land preparation entailed 147 puddling and levelling in all treatments. For each season, transplanting was done fifteen days after nursery, 148 with 25 cm spacing for all treatments. All fields within one repetition were planted within one day, resulting 149 in two successive days for the entire experiment. Manual weeding was carried out twice within each 150 cropping season. Crop performance as influenced by water and fertilizer management 151 152 Plant height and the relative leaf chlorophyll content, using a Soil Plant Analysis Development (SPAD) 153 chlorophyll meter, were measured at sub-plot level during three cropping stages: i) two weeks after tillering, 154 ii) maximum tillering and iii) flowering. Data was used to calculate changes in crop evapotranspiration due 155 to the various treatments. At harvest, grains and total above ground biomass were determined in each sub- 156 plot and grain moisture content upon harvest was measured. Additionally, all fields were harvested and 157 grains were weighed. Grain yields at sub-plot and plot level were converted to 14% moisture content and 158 the harvest index at sub-plot level was calculated. 159 2.4 160 Soil samples were taken of various sub-plots to investigate inherent soil spatial variability prior to the field 161 experiment. Topsoil samples (0-5 cm) within the sub-plots were taken after field preparation to ensure a 162 homogenous soil profile after ploughing and puddling. The samples taken in the middle position of the field 163 were analysed for particle size (pipet method) and soil organic carbon (SOC) (Walkley-Black) using Soil spatial variability within the experiment 7 164 standardized laboratory analysis (Houba et al., 1995). Furthermore, five samples per field (Figure 2) were 165 selected and measured on pH (H2O), total nitrogen (Ntot) (Kjeldahl), exchangeable iron (Fe2+), potassium 166 (K+), magnesium (Mg2+) (Mehlich) and phosphorus (PO43-) (Bray) (International Institute or Tropical 167 Agriculture, 1979). Exchangeable iron was measured to test whether iron toxicity was prevailing and 168 compared to the content taken up by the plants after the third season. 169 2.5 170 Seasonal water balances for each water management and fertilizer treatment were calculated at field scale 171 within each toposequence. Rainfall (R) and groundwater table (G) were measured at daily time steps 172 whereas percolation (P) was determined the day after irrigation, irrigation (I) and drainage (D) were 173 measured when applicable. The adjusted crop evapotranspiration (ETc,adj ) was calculated on a daily time 174 step for each field within each season according to the FAO Penman-Monteith equation (Allen et al., 1998) 175 while seasonal lateral flow (L) was calculated using the water balance formula. Spatio-temporal variation in water availability and water productivity 176 177 Plastic PVC pipes with a diameter of 50 mm were installed in each field for irrigation and drainage purposes 178 and closed when no irrigation was needed. Irrigation and drainage duration was recorded using a stopwatch 179 and the corresponding water depth in the pipe was measured at regular intervals. Irrigation continued till 180 the required ponding water depths in the field for the various treatments were obtained (see section 2.2). 181 Irrigation and drainage volumes were computed using the Manning formula for more or less than half full 182 pipes (i.e. unpressurized flow) depending on the measured water depth in the pipe. Manning value of 0.009 183 for PVC pipes was used and adjusted depending on the water depth/pipe diameter ratio. Both, calculated 184 irrigation and drainage volume where converted to corresponding water depth (mm). 185 186 Percolation was measured using cylindrical tubes of 200 mm diameter and 400mm length allowing solely 187 for a downward water movement in every second field along the toposequence (Tsubo et al., 2005). Tubes 188 were covered with a lid to prevent evapotranspiration losses and rainfall input. Water level in the tube was 189 brought to the water depth observed in the field after irrigation or drainage and recorded the day after. 190 191 Tubes for daily groundwater measurements were installed upstream of the first field in each toposequence 192 and within the last field. PVC pipes were implemented with a total length of 1000 mm and 50 mm diameter, 193 perforated 500 mm from the top of the pipe and installed 800 mm in the soil profile. For the fields at 194 toposequence level, two to five (i.e. P2 to P5, Figure 2), daily groundwater values were linearly interpolated 195 between the top and the bottom field, for each field within a toposequence. 196 8 197 At field level, daily crop requirement under soil water stress conditions were calculated using the FAO- 198 dual crop coefficient approach (Allen et al., 1998) and if necessary corrected for soil water limiting 199 conditions. 200 ๐พ๐๐ ,the basal crop coefficient for rice as function a of the initial, mid and end development stages 201 (i.e.๐พ๐๐๐๐๐ , ๐พ๐๐๐๐๐ and ๐พ๐๐๐๐๐ , respectively) 202 development stage, measured plant height at the three stages and occurring climatic conditions. The soil 203 evaporation coefficient (๐พ๐ ) was estimated based on the daily water balance calculations under local soil 204 physical properties. The water stress coefficient (๐พ๐ ) was calculated at daily time steps based on the 205 estimated readily available water content as a function of measured soil texture and calculated root zone 206 depletion. However, due to the high groundwater table, the value of ๐พ๐ remained 1 throughout the 207 experiment for both water management treatments. was adjusted depending on the length for each plant 208 209 The total seasonal net lateral water flow (L) for all four seasons was calculated at field level and represented 210 percolation under the bunds as well as seepage through the bunds. Negative values showed a clear loss 211 while positive values indicate a net water gain within the field due to lateral water movement. As 212 groundwater was observed within 50 cm of the sub-surface, the seasonal change in groundwater table was 213 used to calculate the lateral flow. The assumption is made that within one season there is a steady 214 groundwater movement within the sub-surface layer. As such the depletion or recharge of groundwater 215 within one season must be equal to all incoming and outgoing water components: 216 217 218 ๐ณ = ๐น + ๐ฐ − ๐ซ − ๐ท − ๐ฌ๐ป๐,๐๐ ๐ − ๐๐ฎ Eq. 1 219 where ๐ฟ is the lateral flow (mm), ๐ฅ๐บ seasonal change in groundwater table within the field (mm), ๐ total 220 rainfall (mm), ๐ผ total irrigation amount (mm), ๐ท total drainage amount (mm), ๐ total estimated percolation 221 (mm) and ๐ธ๐๐,๐๐๐ the calculated seasonal evapotranspiration (mm). 222 223 To calculate the net seasonal lateral flow during each rice season, total percolation needed to be estimated 224 at field level throughout the period. Using PROC MIXED (SAS v9.2), a mixed effect model was built to 225 investigate the effect of fertilizer, water management and toposequence position on percolation losses at 226 field level. No significant changes between fertilizer, water management or toposequence position were 227 found and overall average percolation was estimated to be 3 mm day-1. In case the monitored groundwater 228 level was found to be above soil surface, percolation losses were assumed to be zero. Soil water fluctuation, 229 in absence of a standing water layer, was based on sub-surface groundwater fluctuation (G < 0) and 230 estimated using soil porosity as a function of bulk density. Sand was the main soil fraction and soil bulk 9 231 density was estimated to be 1.6 g cm-3 (Pedosphere, 2013) resulting in a porosity of 0.4. When groundwater 232 level was above soil surface no adjustments were made. As such, ๐ฅ๐บ represented the overall seasonal 233 depletion (<0) or recharge (>0) within the field. 234 235 Water productivity at field scale was calculated for each season using the following formulas: 236 237 ๐๐๐ผ๐๐๐ก = ๐⁄(๐ + ๐ผ − ๐ท) Eq. 2 238 ๐๐๐ผ๐๐๐ก +๐ฟ = ๐⁄(๐ + ๐ผ − ๐ท + ๐ฟ) Eq. 3 239 ๐๐๐ธ๐ = ๐⁄(๐ธ๐ ๐,๐๐๐ ) Eq. 4 240 241 Where ๐๐๐ผ๐๐๐ก , ๐๐๐ผ๐๐๐ก +๐ฟ and ๐๐๐ธ๐ are field based seasonal water productivity based on (i) net irrigation, 242 (ii) net irrigation including lateral sub-surface gains or losses and (iii) crop evapotranspiration, respectively. 243 ๐ represented the harvested rice at field scale (kg m-2), ๐ผ total irrigation amount (10 -3 m), ๐ท total drainage 244 amount (10 -3 m), ๐ฟ the lateral flow (10 -3 m) and ๐ธ๐๐,๐๐๐ the calculated seasonal evapotranspiration (10 -3 245 m). 246 2.6 247 Descriptive statistics were obtained using the univariate procedure in SAS v9.2. A first indication regarding 248 soil, rice, water productivity and water balance parameter variability were obtained through the coefficient 249 of variation (CV) with values < 10% and > 90% indicating low and high variability, respectively (Wei et 250 al., 2008). Statistical analysis on spatio-temporal variability of soil properties, water balance and rice 251 252 To evaluate further whether fertilizer, water management and toposequence had significant impact on rice 253 and water productivity, firstly the spatial variability of the initial soil parameters prior to the field 254 experiments was investigated. Two mixed effects models: (i) soil texture and soil organic carbon, and (ii) 255 soil nutrients (Ntot, PO43- Bray, K+, Fe2+, Mg2+) and pH, were built due to differences in available samples and 256 the associated covariance structure. For both models the fixed effects that were tested were: repetition 257 (repetition), water management (WM: CF or RI), fertilizer (F: -F and +F), toposequence position (position: 258 1-6), their two way interaction as well as the overall interaction between water management (WM), fertilizer 259 and position. The random effects included the interaction between repetition and water management 260 (repetition*WM) as well as the interaction between repetitions, water management and fertilizer 261 (repetition*WM*F). For the nutrient models, sub-plot (i.e. location: 1 to 9) was added to the random 262 statement, a repeated statement was added in which the field was taken as subject and an exponential spatial 10 263 covariance structure was added using the distance in x- and y-direction (m), according to the overall defined 264 origin of the experiment, for each sample location within the field (Figure 2). The dependent variables were, 265 where necessary, log transformed in order to obtain homogeneity of variance and normality of the residuals. 266 267 Similarly, the spatio-temporal variation for plant height, SPAD, rice yield and biomass were analysed using 268 the same fixed effects as described for the soil spatial analysis. Seasonal variation was accounted for by 269 grouping the monitored seasons into two groups: i) dry season: lower groundwater table and higher rainfall 270 variability, more erratic rainfall (i.e. season one and three) and ii) wet season: higher groundwater table and 271 less rainfall variability (i.e. season two and four). Grouping of the monitored seasons was valid as no 272 significant difference was found between the same measurements taken in different cropping seasons under 273 the dry (i.e. first and third season) respectively wet season (i.e. second and fourth season). Within this 274 model, the same random effects (i.e. repetition*WM, repetition*WM*F and sub-plot) were added as for the 275 nutrient models described above. As seasonality was shown to have significant impact on rice yields, 276 additional models for the dry and wet season were tested separately. 277 278 2.7 Predicting rice productivity in inland valleys 279 The prediction of rice yield at field scale as a function of soil fertility and water availability was obtained 280 through a multiple mixed regression. As for all four seasons each field was kept under the same management 281 practices it can be expected that observations have dependent errors throughout the entire experiment. 282 Therefore, all observations at the same location were considered as repeated measures with field taken as 283 subject. The residual variance-covariance structure matrix was then taken as a spatial power function with 284 the harvesting date (in Julian days) as the coordinate. As such, the correlation between yields of the various 285 seasons at the same location decays exponentially in time. The transplanting date of the first season was 286 taken as origin, bringing the harvest date of the first season on 100 Julian days, the second season on 217, 287 etc. Prior to the mixed regression all variables were standardized and a stepwise variable selection was 288 performed using the water balance components, spatial and soil fertility variables. In order to obtain one 289 model which is able to predict rice yields as a function of water and fertilizer management the model was 290 allowed to have management specific coefficients for all selected variables if appropriate. This is translated 291 into a maximum of four management specific coefficients per variable (i.e. two water and two fertilizer 292 management). The model was validated using a five-fold cross validation resulting in a random allocation 293 of the data into five folds from which four were used as calibration and one was used as validation. This 294 procedure was performed five times. The average Pearson’s correlation (r) between the observed and the 295 predicted values, resulting from the cross-validation, was calculated. 11 296 3 Results 297 3.1 298 Textural analysis of the soil samples showed that the rice fields are sand dominated ranging between 70.4 299 and 92.4%, followed by silt (8-21%) and clay (1.5-15%) (Table 2). The fields were classified as sandy 300 loam, sand and loamy sand corresponding to the USDA classification (Pedosphere, 2013). Soil organic 301 carbon ranged from 0.3 to 1.6 % with an average 0.8 ± 0.3%. Overall, average values of 1.5 ± 0.3 g kg-1 302 and 27.2 ± 13.2 mg kg-1 were found for Ntot and PO43- Bray while 0.2 ± 0.1 cmol kg-1 and 0.3 ± 0.1 cmol kg-1 303 was obtained for K+ and Mg2+, respectively. Values between 140 and 275 ppm were obtained for Fe2+. The 304 coefficient of variation showed moderate variability, ranging between 13-57%, for all parameters except 305 pH and the sand fraction. Particle size, soil organic carbon and total nitrogen analysis for the samples taken 306 prior to the field experiments revealed no significant difference between the toposequences (i.e. between 307 the toposequences allocated for a specific water and fertilizer treatment) or within one toposequence (i.e. 308 position of the field within a toposequence) (Table 2). With regard to the pH a significant difference 309 (p<0.0001) was found between the positions. The other nutrients and Fe2+ showed significant variability 310 between fields allocated to a specific management or at a specific location. However, no significant pattern 311 was detected. 312 3.2 313 For all four successive seasons, the groundwater tables in the upper lying fields were lower compared to 314 the lower lying fields. Lower lying fields had groundwater tables above surface level throughout the 315 majority of the rice seasons (Figure 1). Groundwater table measurements showed distinct differences in 316 both the toposequential direction (i.e. within one treatment) as between treatments (i.e. in the x direction, 317 Figure 3). The relatively high sand content of the fields resulted in high irrigation requirements to maintain 318 the standing water layer in the continuous flooding treatment. As such, a large variation in applied irrigation 319 depth between the fields within the toposequence as well as between the two toposequences within the same 320 treatment existed. In the dry seasons, total irrigated depths varied between 131 and 2772 mm resulting in 321 an overall average application of 1011 mm whereas in the wet seasons it varied between 0 and 1780 mm 322 resulting in an overall average application of 584 mm. For the reduced irrigation trials the applied depth 323 ranged between 19 and 657 mm (average: 251 mm) and between 0 and 102 mm (average: 28 mm) for the 324 dry and wet seasons, respectively (Figure 3). Within the same management toposequence, irrigation was 325 highest in the upper (position 1) and decreased substantially towards the lowest lying fields (position 6) 326 (Figure 3). The seasonal ETc,adj showed a slight spatial but no significant variation between fertilizer and 327 water management treatments (CV = 3-7 %). Average seasonal crop evapotranspiration for all fields was 328 489 mm and 437 mm during the dry and wet season, respectively. Seasonal percolation losses showed a Soil spatial variability along toposequences Spatio-temporal variation in water flow components along toposequences 12 329 slightly higher variability and ranged between 49 and 315 mm with an average around 176 mm and a CV 330 of 52 %. 331 332 The sandy soils and the shallow water table within the experimental layout as well as the high irrigation 333 amounts for the fields under the CF treatment resulted in a large two dimensional spatial variation of sub- 334 surface drainage and therefore water losses due to lateral flow (CV = -700 to 201 %) (Figure 3). Taking 335 into account the length of each cropping season, average lateral flow losses/ gains for all four seasons were 336 -19.9 to 3.1 mm day-1, respectively. The ratio of seasonal lateral flow vs. total water input (i.e. rainfall and 337 irrigation) showed on average water losses up to 71 % in the upper lying fields and water gains up to 117% 338 in the lower positions. Furthermore, losses attributed to sub-surface drainage resulted in larger water gains 339 in the fields under reduced irrigation management explaining the large variation of irrigation and drainage 340 amounts found between fields within the same toposequence and treatment (Figure 3). This points towards 341 a strong gradient in both the x as well as y direction of the experimental setup (Figures 2 and 3). 342 3.3 343 Detailed crop performance analysis of all the sub-plots at the various crop development stages showed a 344 significant seasonal effect with regards to plant height for all stages (p<0.0001) while only a significant 345 effect for SPAD values was found at the flowering stage (p<0.0001). With the exception of the first crop 346 development stage (i.e. two weeks after tillering) in the dry season, a significant fertilizer effect on plant 347 height was observed in all stages for both seasons pointing towards a clear fertilizer uptake (p<0.05). 348 Additionally, in the both seasons the field position within the toposequence showed to have an additional 349 effect on plant height in the flowering stage (-F: p<0.0001; +F: p = 0.006) but not in the tillering and 350 maximum tillering stage. No significant effect of water management during all stages and in both seasons 351 was observed. The SPAD values were only significantly affected by fertilizer treatment in the flowering 352 stage during the dry season (p<0.0001) and from the maximum tillering stage (p= 0.023) onwards in the 353 wet season. No significant effect of water treatment or position was found for the obtained SPAD values at 354 sub-plot level for any of the three stages. Effect of water management on rice and water productivity 355 356 In both seasons, rice yields and biomass at sub-plot level showed a high variability for both fertilizer 357 treatments as well as the various toposequence positions (Figure 4). In the dry season the measured biomass 358 and yield median was 2.9 and 2.7 t ha-1 (CF treatment, CV= 39 and 33%), 2.4 and 2.4 t ha-1 (RI treatment, 359 CV= 41 and 26%) for the unfertilized while for the fertilized fields these increased to 4.8 and 3.9 t ha-1 (CF 360 treatment, CV= 31 and 26%) and 4.4 and 4.8 t ha-1 (RI treatment, CV= 85 and 30%), respectively. In the 361 wet season, slightly lower biomass and rice yields were observed for the unfertilized fields resulting in 2.5 13 362 and 2.6 t ha-1 (CF treatment, CV= 44 and 29%) and 2.1 and 2.2 t ha-1 (RI treatment, CV= 39 and 37%) while 363 fertilized fields produced 3.9 and 3.9 t ha-1 (CF treatment, CV= 59 and 21%) and 3.1 and 3.2 t ha-1 (RI 364 treatment, CV= 43 and 29%), respectively. Biomass and yield both showed a significant seasonal 365 (p<0.0001) as well as a seasonal dependent fertilizer effect (p=0.015 to p<0.0001) while no significant 366 impact of water management was found (Table 3). Seasonal analysis showed that for the wet season a 367 significant toposequential effect and its respective interaction with water management and fertilizer was 368 found for the observed rice yields. For biomass, on the other hand, the toposequential effect was significant 369 for both seasons in absence of the interactions with water management or fertilizer. 370 371 The high inter-field variability in rice yields resulted in a large variability in water productivity (Table 4). 372 Depending on its definition (Equations 1-4), water productivity at field level for the continuous flooding 373 treatment, varied between 0.06 and 2.14 kg m-3, 0.28 and 0.93 kg m-3, 0.22 and 0.88 kg m-3 for WPInet, WPET 374 and WPInet+L respectively. For the reduced irrigation trials values ranged between 0.15 and 2.35 kg m-3, 0.13 375 and 0.88 kg m-3, 0.13 and 0.74 kg m-3, respectively (Table 4). The water productivity based on net irrigation 376 (i.e. WPInet) showed a significant fertilizer effect for the dry season (p=0.038) while WPET and WPInet+L 377 revealed a significant fertilizer effect in both the dry and wet season (p<0.0001). However, the effect of 378 water management on water productivity was only found to be significant in the wet season for the 379 unfertilized trials based on the ET calculations (p=0.047). While water management did not significantly 380 affect water productivity in the dry season when the lateral flow was taken into account (i.e. WP Inet+L), the 381 toposequential (i.e. field position) did seem to be positively affecting water productivity in both seasons for 382 the lower lying fertilized fields (dry season: p= 0.025; wet season: p<0.0001). 383 3.4 384 The following variables were selected in the mixed regression model; (i) water balance components: total 385 seasonal rainfall (mm), seasonal groundwater table depth at field level within one toposequential position 386 (mm); (ii) spatial variable: distance of the field in the x direction according to the origin of the experiment 387 (i.e. upper left field) (m); and iii) field scale soil fertility variables: clay fraction (%), ferric content (Fe2+, 388 ppm) and total nitrogen (Ntot, g kg-1). The five-fold cross validation for all water management treatments 389 and their respective fertilizer application resulted in an overall regression model with a Pearson’s 390 correlation coefficient of 0.88 when prediction values were compared with the observed yields at field level 391 (Figure 5). The root mean square error (RMSE) of the model resulting from the five-fold cross validation 392 resulted in 0.31 ton ha-1 with a corresponding R2 of 0.79. It clearly showed its capability to predict the 393 spatial variation observed within toposequences as function of both water management practices as well as 394 the two fertilizer treatments. Predicting spatio-temporal variation of rice yields in an inland valley 14 395 396 The intercept of the regression model varied between 3.09 and 4.30 and represented the average expected 397 grain yield for a specific water management as well as the fertilizer treatment within the water management 398 application with the highest potential obtained for the CF+F treatment followed by the RI+F (Table 5). The 399 interaction between groundwater table and the x-gradient of the field trial showed the highest positive 400 contribution (0.13) when predicting rice yields. Additionally, the clay fraction positively affected rice yields 401 whereas the interaction between clay and the iron content as well as the rainfall to the third power seemed 402 to decrease rice yields, with the latter having the strongest influence (-1.11). The seasonal groundwater 403 table fluctuation to the power two at field level seemed to only significantly affect the unfertilized 404 treatments while the squared rainfall only significantly influenced the fertilized treatments. However, the 405 latter revealed a different coefficient as a function of the water management treatment. In terms of soil 406 fertility, the contribution of total nitrogen content at field level in predicting rice yields along toposequences 407 showed a significant difference between water management treatments resulting in a negative effect for the 408 continuous flooding and a positive effect for the reduced irrigation experiments. 409 4 410 4.1 411 The lateral flow observed in Bamé had a strong 2-dimensional character; contributing to water gains 412 between fields, located at the same toposequential level as well as along a toposequence. The average lateral 413 flow losses/gains of -19.9 and 3.1 mm day-1, respectively are significantly higher than the ones reported by 414 Tsubo et al. (2005). This can be explained by the relatively higher sand content (84 %) in this study 415 compared to the study conducted by Tsubo et al. (2005) in Thailand (i.e. 5 – 20%). The contribution of 416 lateral flow to water gains in these fields influenced the required irrigation depths in both the RI as well as 417 the CF experiments. Especially for the fields under the CF treatment, significantly larger irrigation amounts 418 were applied in the upper lying compared to the lower lying fields within a toposequence. The 2- 419 dimensional sub-surface flow might contribute to the long term spatial variability of nutrients observed 420 within the field trial prior to the start of the experiment in 2011 (Table 2). As indicated by studies in Asia, 421 variation in soil chemical properties along toposequences is highly influenced by sediment deposition as 422 well as runoff processes and consequently alterations in soil physical properties (Haefele et al., 2010; 423 Schmitter et al., 2010). Sandy soils have lower water holding as well as nutrient binding capacity and 424 infiltration is known to increase with decreasing clay content. Therefore, a flushing effect can be expected 425 in those fields where lateral flow is substantially high, removing the easy soluble nutrients. Discussion Contribution of lateral flow to the spatio-temporal variation of rice and water productivity 426 15 427 The spatio-temporal variation of crop performance indicators at the various stages as well as the obtained 428 total biomass and rice yields seemed to be positively affected by toposequential position rather than the 429 water management practice. The spatial pattern was found to be complex and crop performance seemed 430 higher at the middle fields within a toposequence compared to the lower lying fields. This is mainly due to 431 the extreme flooding conditions resulting in a high standing water table (> 10 cm) in some of these fields 432 during the rainy season, negatively affecting grain development during the flowering stage. Although the 433 CF treatment seems on average to produce higher yields, no significant differences in crop performance or 434 rice production was found between the CF and the RI treatments for the same fertilizer treatment. However, 435 for both seasons, plant height at the flowering stage showed a clear toposequential influence within one 436 fertilizer treatment but the toposequential expression was only significantly reflected in rice yields for the 437 wet season. 438 439 The toposequential influence on rice performance was further confirmed when evaluating water 440 productivity. The calculated mean water productivity based on net irrigation as well as the 441 evapotranspiration, for both water management strategies and fertilizer treatments, fall within the ranges of 442 other field studies synthesized by Zwart (2013). To date, no comparative study was found that takes into 443 account the lateral flow losses, respectively gains when calculating water productivity. However, the results 444 in this study delineate the importance of including lateral flow when calculating water productivity. While 445 the fertilizer effect was found to significantly increase water productivity for WPInet, WPET and WPInet+L the 446 effect of water management practices was overshadowed by the strong lateral flow component. As such, 447 the upper lying fields within the toposequences under CF treatment tend to have significantly lower water 448 productivity (i.e. WPInet) due to the high amounts of irrigation water applied compensating the water losses. 449 As net irrigation does not take water losses/gains due to sub-surface drainage into account, the 450 toposequential effect on water productivity was masked and only found to be significant when the total 451 water availability was corrected for lateral flow at field level in both seasons. 452 4.2 453 The mixed model was able to predict rice yields as affected by water and fertilizer treatment within the 454 inland valley with a Pearson correlation of 0.88, resulting from a 5-fold cross validation. Although no 455 significant difference was found between water management treatments for the same fertilizer treatment 456 due to the high intra-field spatial variability, the mixed regression model did reveal, aside from a fertilizer 457 specific, a water management specific intercept indicating significant differences in average expected yields 458 for each treatment within the inland valley. The intercepts reflect that reduced irrigation could lead to a 459 slight but significant reduction of rice yields compared to the continuous flooding treatment. Predicting spatio-temporal rice yields using groundwater tables in inland valleys 16 460 461 Aside from the sub-surface flow contribution on rice productivity, as discussed above, the role of 462 groundwater showed a similar strong two dimensional character. The groundwater table at field level 463 reflects inherently the toposequential position, as each field had a significant different groundwater table 464 with lower tables observed in the upper lying fields compared to the lower ones. The importance of shallow 465 ground tables when predicting grain yields was revealed in the established mixed regression model and 466 highly significant for the unfertilized toposequences. This can be linked to the presence of nutrients in the 467 groundwater available for plant uptake in absence of fertilizer. The significant importance of shallow 468 groundwater tables on paddy rice was indicated by Shen et al. (2014). 469 470 The inter-linkage between fields at the same toposequential position was represented by the interaction of 471 the groundwater component with the distance of the field in the x-direction, indicating the recharge of 472 groundwater tables as influenced by the lateral flow. The contribution of this variable was found to be 473 independent of the water and fertilizer treatment applied as dominated by soil physico-chemical 474 characteristics. This is supported by the presence of the clay component in the model having one coefficient 475 for all treatments. The incorporation of the clay component in the model has a dual functionality; it can be 476 seen as a proxy for the soil nutrient status in the field as well as the porosity of the field and associated 477 water losses. Furthermore, a significant interaction between clay and the presence of Fe2+ in the topsoil was 478 found, decreasing rice yields in the inland valley. However, in this study iron uptake in plant material and 479 rice grains were examined within one season but not found to reach toxicity levels (data not shown). Its 480 presence in the model however, does indicate the sensitivity of rice yields to the iron concentrations in the 481 top soil and reflects its negative influence on yield potentials in the valley as affected by textural 482 characteristics. Due to the age of the inland valleys as well as sedimentation of iron rich sediments in the 483 lowlands, iron toxicity is one of the main constraints in West African inland valleys (Becker and Asch, 484 2005). The presence of iron in the top soil and the redox processes occurring during water logging 485 conditions reduces the uptake of other minerals such as nitrogen and phosphorus (Worou et al., 2013). 486 Furthermore, Worou et al. (2013) observed a clear effect of toposequential position on the presence of iron 487 and subsequently showed its negative impact on nitrogen uptake by the rice plants. Although the clay 488 content reduces Fe dynamics due to complexation in the clay mineral surfaces compared to sandy soils, it 489 is highly dependent on the types of clay minerals present in the inland valley (Becker and Asch, 2005). 490 Prior to the field experiment a spatial variation of Fe2+ was observed between the fields, mainly with regards 491 to the overall toposequential position of the field as well as within a fertilizer and water management 492 toposequence (Table 2). As such it can be expected that in these inland valleys the combination of 17 493 groundwater tables, clay content and the associated availability of Fe2+ might influence the spatial 494 variability of rice yields. 495 496 Aside from the negative influence of iron on rice production, the total nitrogen content in the top soil seems 497 to negatively affect production in the fields under continuous flooding compared to the reduced irrigation 498 trials. No significant spatial pattern was found prior to the commencement of the field experiment. The 499 presence of this variable in the model is most probably linked with the increased plant available nitrogen 500 (NO3-) losses due to increased irrigation and associated sub-surface losses influenced by the high sand 501 content of the soil. Due to the interaction of the soils physical properties and the occurring hydrological 502 processes in the field no significant difference of this variable as a function of fertilizer treatment can be 503 expected which is reflected in the model by the coefficient dependency on water management rather than 504 fertilizer application. 505 5 506 This study revealed the significant contribution of shallow groundwater tables and lateral flow when 507 assessing water management strategies and their effect on the spatio-temporal variation of rice production 508 and water productivity in a sandy inland valley. The toposequence position clearly influenced water 509 productivity due to sub-surface lateral flow which was found to significantly influence water gains in the 510 lower lying fields, reducing irrigation requirements within a specific water management treatment. The 511 results indicate that based on the groundwater table, rainfall and standard soil physico-chemical 512 characteristics, rice yields can be predicted in these inland valleys for continuous flooding and reduced 513 irrigation practices. Groundwater contribution was found to play an important role in predicting rice yields, 514 especially for the unfertilized treatments which is potentially linked to the high nutrient concentrations 515 resulting from the sub-surface nutrient drainage of surrounding fields. However, as this study was restricted 516 to one inland valley comparative studies in similar regions with varying groundwater tables (i.e. shallow to 517 deep) would help to further elucidate and validate the applicability of this study. As such, rice production 518 as well as water consumption could be estimated for various inland valleys in West-Africa under similar 519 agro-climatological conditions. Optimizing the established function within a large scale assessment would 520 lead to improved regression functions suitable in the region to estimate rice production and water 521 consumption across scales. Conclusion 18 522 6 Acknowledgements 523 This study was carried out in the framework of the project ‘Sawah, Market Access and Rice Technologies 524 for Inland Valleys’ (SMART-IV). The authors acknowledge the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and 525 Fisheries (MAFF) of Japan for funding the project. 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Assessing and Imrpoving Water Productivity of Irrigated Rice Systems in Africa, in: Wopereis, M.C.S., Johnson, D., Ahmadi, N., Tollens, E., Jalloh, A. (Eds.), Realizing Africa's Rice Promise. CABI (Wallingford, United Kingdom), Africa Rice Center (Cotonou, Benin), pp. 264-274. 613 614 22 615 Figures 616 617 Figure 1: Monthly rainfall distribution (mm, vertical bars) and corresponding 50% of the monthly total 618 potential evapotranspiration (0.5 ETo, mm, black line) according to FAO guideline (1985) , indicating dry 619 periods where rainfall is below the 0.5 ETo line (top). Corresponding daily average measured groundwater 620 fluctuations (mm) of the top fields (black) and bottom fields (grey) (bottom) are given below for 2011-2012 621 at the experimental site of Bamé. Dashed vertical lines indicate the four measured rice seasons and the 622 dashed zero line represents the surface level of the rice fields. 623 624 Figure 2: Schematic representation of the field experiment with RI representing the reduced irrigation and 625 CF the continuous flooding treatments. Within each treatment -F represents the unfertilized and +F the 626 fertilized toposequence. Each field within the toposequence is irrigated and drained through the 627 neighbouring irrigation and drainage channel, respectively. Within each field, nine sub-plots of 1 m2 were 628 delineated (squares). The five black coloured sub-plots represent the soil samples analysed. The blue 629 channels represent the irrigation channels while the drainage channels are in green. 630 631 Figure 3: Averaged water balance components for the two dry seasons (left) and for the two wet seasons 632 (right) for each of the water and fertilizer treatment at their respective distance of 10 (RI–F), 20.5 (RI+F), 31 633 (CF+F), 41.5 (CF-F), 52 (CF-F), 62.5 (CF+F), 73 (RI+F) and 83.5 m (RI–F) in the experimental layout (Figure 634 2). Position refers to the field position in the toposequence with position 1 being the first top field and 635 position 6 the last field. 636 637 Figure 4a: Box plots of measured rice yields in the dry season within the sub-plots as function of field 638 position along a toposequence (y-axis). Separate box plots are made for each water management treatment 639 (left to right) (i.e. RI and CF, respectively) and each fertilizer treatment top to bottom (unfertilized and 640 fertilized, respectively) within one repetition (i.e. repetition 1 and 2). Crossbars, boxes and whiskers 641 represent the median, quartile range (5th and 95th percentile) and range, respectively. The dashed line 642 represents the mean of the measured rice yields within a field. 643 644 Figure 4b: Box plots of measured rice yields in the wet season within the sub-plots as function of field 645 position along a toposequence (y-axis). Separate box plots are made for each water management treatment 646 (left to right) (i.e. RI and CF, respectively) and each fertilizer treatment top to bottom (unfertilized and 647 fertilized, respectively) within one repetition (i.e. repetition 1 and 2). Crossbars, boxes and whiskers giving 23 648 the median, quartile range (5th and 95th percentile) and range, respectively. The dashed line represents the 649 mean of the measured rice yields within a field. 650 651 Figure 5: Observed vs. predicted rice yields (t ha-1) at field level as function of water management, fertilizer 652 application and topographical location after cross validation of the established mixed effects model. 653 654 655 656 657 658 659 660 661 662 663 664 665 666 667 668 669 670 671 672 673 674 675 676 677 678 679 680 681 24 682 683 684 685 686 687 688 25 689 26 27 690 691 692 28 693 694 29 695 30