Annex A: Comparison of warheads
Warhead
Country
Yield
System
Comment
W76
USA
100kT
UGM-96 Trident I/
UGM-133 Trident
II
Submarine-launched ballistic
missile carrying up to four
independently targeted
warheads (multiple
independently targetable
reentry vehicles, or MIRVs1)
TN-75
France
110kT
M45 SLBM
Submarine-launched ballistic
missile carrying up to six
MIRV warheads; primary
French nuclear deterrent2
B-61 Mod 10
USA
Variable
0.3 – 170kT
Gravity Bomb
Air-dropped weapon with
variable yield including 80kT
and 170kT. Most recent
modification has hardened
uranium shell and delayed
fuse for penetrating
reinforced structures 3
JL-2
China
90kT
SLBM
Jane’s Defence believes the
JL-2 carries up to 4 MIRV
warheads,4 each with a yield
of 90kT, whilst US analysts
believe it carries a single
warhead with a yield of 200300kT.
Information regarding the warhead yields of Russian and Chinese nuclear weapons are more
difficult to obtain, but it is probable that average warhead size in Russian weapons is larger than
those listed above. However one of the most recent ballistic missiles developed by Russia, the
RS-24 Yars, is reportedly designed to carry up to 10 warheads. This is reportedly designed to
replace the RT-2PM2, which carries a single warhead of approximately 550kT. The yield of the
warheads on the RS-24 is unknown, but is likely to be lower than 550kT5.
1
http://nuclearweaponarchive.org/Usa/Weapons/W76.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TN_75
3 http://www.brookings.edu/about/projects/archive/nucweapons/lasg
4 http://articles.janes.com/articles/Janes-Strategic-Weapon-Systems/JL-2-CSS-NX-5-China.html
5 http://www.ausairpower.net/APA-RVSN-Analysis.html#mozTocId959003
2
Developing weapons with yields above 100kT is considered technically challenging. The yield of
Indian nuclear weapons is estimated at 15-20kT for example6, although Indian officials have
claimed that they have the capability to develop weapons with yields of up to 200kT.7 Pakistan,
another recent nuclear power, is reported to be focusing on the development of low-yield
weapons,8 and has tested devices with yields of approximately 40kT.9
Based on the above, this study has chosen to model the impact of a 100kT device, believing this
to be a realistic “average” size weapon as held by the traditional nuclear powers, as well as
representing a realistic upper limit for emerging nuclear states.
6
http://www.nti.org/analysis/articles/india-nuclear-disarmament/
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d63f3a70-ab90-11de-9be4-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2JMsoZak8
8 http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2012-09-27/india/34126649_1_hans-m-kristensen-nuclear-weaponsscoot-attributes
9 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chagai-I
7
Annex B: Direct deaths and injuries
Based on the zones of impact indicated in the table presented previously, standard estimates
have been produced regarding the percentage of the population in affected areas that will be
left dead, injured or relatively uninjured.
Assuming a standard population density for the Manchester urban area of 4,348 people per
square kilometre.10
Zone
Zone 1
Est pop. in area
Dead
Injured
46,912
98%
45,974
2%
Zone 2
73,641
50%
36,821
Zone 3
243,635
5%
12,182
Zone 4
462,736
0%
0
Totals
826,924
94,976
Uninjured
938
0%
40%
29,457
10%
7,364
45%
109,636
50%
121,818
25%
115,684
75%
347,052
255,715
0
476,234
Around 95,000 people would be dead or fatally injured. A further 255,000 would be injured by a
combination of cuts bruises, crushing injuries and burns or trapped under collapsed buildings
and structures.
NB – this is a larger population than the city of Manchester alone and takes casualties from
several boroughs in greater Manchester
10
equivalent to 11,260 people per square mile
Annex C: Background data on infrastructure impact
1. Health Services
There are 11 general hospitals in the Greater Manchester area, with a total capacity of 6,242
beds. All of these general hospitals have an Accident and Emergency (A&E) department, with
four classified as Collaborative Major Trauma Centres for both Adults and Children.
There are a further 8 hospitals providing specialist care (maternity, paediatric, cancer, dental
and so on) and 3 private hospitals: These facilities can provide a further 899 beds, but do not
have a dedicate A&E capacity.
Type
All beds
All hospitals
with A&E
capacity
Total
Capacity
6,987
6,088
Zone 1
<1.8km
Zone 2
1.8 - 3km
Zone 3
3 – 5 km
Zone 4
5 – 8 km
Zone 5
>8km
0
1,178
580
840
4,389
0%
16.9%
8.3%
12.9%
62.8%
0
1,121
580
666
4,092
0%
17.4%
9%
10.3%
63.4%
Of the four hospitals that comprise the Collaborative Major Trauma Centre, two fall within Zone
2 and would be heavily damaged, whilst another falls within Zone 3 and would also suffer
extensive damage. A third Trauma Centre is located in Zone 5. Of the five hospitals that are
classified as Trauma Centres, one falls within Zone 3, and would suffer extensive damage.
2. Ambulance Stations
Greater Manchester falls under the control of North West Ambulance Service (NWAS), and the
region encompasses 34 Ambulance Stations, as well as a central Emergency Control Centre
(ECC), which is responsible for organising the movement and priorities for ambulances and
paramedic staff.
Type
Ambulance
Stations
Total
Capacity
34
Zone 1
<1.8km
Zone 2
1.8 - 3km
Zone 3
3 – 5 km
Zone 4
5 – 8 km
Zone 5
>8km
0
1
4
3
26
0%
2.9%
11.8%
8.8%
76.7%
In addition to the ambulance stations, the Ambulance Service ECC for Greater Manchester falls
in Zone 3, and would therefore be heavily damaged.
In addition to the NWAS, there is also the privately owned Manchester Ambulance Service,
which operates 26 vehicles across Manchester, and provides emergency response vehicles
within central Manchester. The exact location of these stations is not known.
3. Fire and Rescue Services
There are 41 fire stations in the Greater Manchester area, in addition to a Fire Service
Headquarters which provides command and control facility. The primary response vehicle is
known as a “pump”, which are standard fire engines containing water tank, water pump and
ladder. In total there are 66 pumps in service.
In addition to the standard vehicles, the fire service has a range of specialised units, such as High
Platform Vehicles, Response Units and Foam Laying Units. Three of these units do possess some
capacity to deal with CBRNE threats, such as specialised decontamination and monitoring
equipment, respirators, protective suits and so on.
Capacity
Stations
Pumps
Specialist
Units
CBRNE Units
On-duty
firefighters
Total
41
66
20
5
274
Zone 1
Zone 2
Zone 3
Zone 4
Zone 5
1
2
2
4
32
2.4%
4.9%
4.9%
9.8%
78%
2
4
4
7
49
3%
6.1%
6.1%
10.6%
74.2%
1
0
0
3
16
5%
0%
0%
15%
80%
0
1
0
0
4
0%
20%
10
16
80%
16
33
199
In addition to the above resources, the Fire Service HQ Command and Control, with
responsibility for the coordination and management of fire service resources, and for taking the
operational lead in disaster response context, is situated within Zone 4 and would sustain some
damage within a wider immediate context of extensive damage to housing and a high level of
injuries amongst the surrounding population.
4. Police Services
The Police Service for the Greater Manchester area is divided into 11 Divisions, which
correspond with the administrative boroughs, with the exception of Manchester, which is
divided into North and South divisions. Each police division has a divisional headquarters, along
with several smaller local police stations. The total force strength as of 2008-09 was 8,259,
although this figure includes police officers involved in special operations, internal affairs,
development and training and so on. The divisional areas have a total of 5,930 police officers,
and although these staff are distributed amongst a small number of police stations in each area,
the table below allocates these to specific divisional headquarters.
Type
Police
Divisional HQ
Police
Officers
Total
Capacity
11
5,930
Zone 1
<1.8km
Zone 2
1.8 - 3km
Zone 3
3 – 5 km
Zone 4
5 – 8 km
Zone 5
>8km
0
1
2
2
6
0%
9%
18%
18%
55%
0
589
1,292
879
3,170
0%
10%
21.9%
14.9%
53.8%
The Force HQ is also situated within Zone 3, and has overall command and control capacity.
5. Education
Manchester has an extensive range of tertiary education establishments. There are three
universities in Greater Manchester, clustered around the city centre. Manchester University is
one of the world’s leading universities, and has world-leading research institutes in areas such
as biotechnology, cancer research, physics and aerospace research and humanitarian and
conflict response.
Alongside the University of Salford and the Manchester Metropolitan University, these three
establishments teach approximately 92,000 graduate and postgraduate students.
Other educational establishments include the Royal Northern College of Music, a leading
conservatoire and one of the four associated royal colleges of music in the United Kingdom, with
a student population of 700. Finally, Manchester College has campuses spread throughout the
city, and provides vocational training to approximately 22,000 students in areas such as building,
information technology, landscape gardening and drama.
The educational establishments are highly centralised and generally located close to the centre
of the city, as per the table below.
ESTABLISHMENT
Manchester
University
Zone 1
<1.8km
Main Campus
Salford University
Manchester
Metropolitan
Zone 2
1.8 - 3km
Zone 3
3 – 5 km
Zone 4
5 – 8 km
Fallowfield
Campus
Main Campus
Manchester
Business School
Elisabeth Gaskell
Campus
Hollings Faculty
Didsbury Campus
University
All Saints Campus
Royal Northern
College of Music
Main Campus
Manchester
College
Nicholls Campus
Shena Simons
St John’s Centre
1.Malcom House
2. Openshaw
Campus
3. Manchester
School of Building
4. Moston
Campus
5. Abraham Moss
6. One Central
Park
1. Fielden
Campus
2. Broadhurst
Park
3. Northenden
Campus
As shown in the table above, a significant proportion of the educational facilities of Manchester
would be destroyed or badly damaged in the projected nuclear detonation, with the main
campuses of al three universities falling within Zone 1 or Zone 2.
6. Culture, sport and social
Manchester is one of the UK’s leading cultural cities, with a longstanding tradition in the
performing arts. It is also a diverse and historically rich city, with a wide variety of museums,
galleries and cultural institutions. As in many cities of a similar size, the structures that house
these organisations, artworks and artefacts are found clustered around the city centre.
The city also has a wide range of world-class sporting infrastructure, and is home to one of the
world’s most famous football clubs, Manchester United and Manchester City.
Zone 1
Buddhist Centre
Chinese Arts Centre
Manchester Art Gallery
Royal Exchange
National Football Museum
Manchester Cathedral
Bridgewater Hall
John Rylands Library
Museum of Science and
Industry
Manchester Aquatics Centre
Palace Theatre and Opera
House
Cultural
Cultural
Museum
Theatre
Museum
Religion
Music/Concerts
Library
Museum
Sports
Cultural
376,000 visitors per year
209,000 visitors per year
601,00 visitors per year
Granada Studios
Film/Television
Manchester Museum
Museum
346,000 visitors per year
The above buildings and their contents would be destroyed or irreparably damaged in an
explosion.
Zone 2
Regional Athletics Arena
Sports
Whitworth Art Gallery
Museum
172,000 visitors per year
Manchester City Football
Sports
Salford Museum and Art Gallery
Museum
National Cycling Centre
Sports
The above structures represent some of the most modern and important sporting facilities in
the UK, and around which much of Manchester’s recent urban regeneration has been focused.
These would be badly damaged in the event of an explosion.
Zone 3
North Manchester Jamia Mosque
Lowry Art Gallery
Old Trafford Football Stadium and
Museum
Imperial War Museum in the North
Ghita Bavan Hindu Temple
Old Trafford Cricket Ground
Cultural
Museum
Sports
Museum
Cultural
Sports
872,000 visitors per year
315,000 visitors per year
(museum)
245,000 visitors per year
It is clear that the cultural, historical and social heritage of the city would be disproportionately
impacted by a nuclear detonation due to the tendency of these types of buildings to be
clustered around the city centre. This is also true for the sporting infrastructure, with several
world-class facilities likely to be destroyed or badly damaged in the event of a nuclear
detonation.
7. Transport infrastructure
As a major provincial city, Manchester has a range of well-established transport infrastructure,
including rail, tram and air. The impact of a nuclear detonation on infrastructure is two-fold, in
that it destroys a critical part of the economic capacity of the city, and hits at its social fabric,
preventing access and movement of people within and through the area.
As with many British cities the main railway stations lie at the edge of the central business
district, and thus the railway network would be particularly badly hit. The international airport
is a reasonable distance outside of the city, and would likely remain physically undamaged. The
table below shows the key transport infrastructure within each impact zone.
ZONE 1: All of the main train stations serving Manchester would fall within Zone 1 and would
thus be destroyed or irreparably damaged. These include Piccadilly and Victoria Train Stations,
Oxford Road Station and Deansgate. Salford Central Train Station would also fall within this
zone. The Piccadilly Bus Station and Manchester Central Bus and Coach Station are also in Zone
1. Manchester’s tram network, called Metrolink, has three main lines, which run from north of
the city to the south and west, all of which cross central Manchester and have a main station
within Piccadilly. This infrastructure would therefore be enormously damaged.
ZONE 2: The main transport infrastructure in this zone is the depot that serves Victoria Station,
which holds most of the rolling stock operating out of Manchester.
ZONE 3: The Ardwick depot, which is the main depot for Piccadilly Station, is in this Zone, as is
the Trafford Park World Freight Centre. The latter is the largest road/rail freight interchange
outside London in the UK.
Annex D: Fallout radiation from a ground burst detonation
The estimates regarding the lethal fallout plume from a ground burst detonation are based on a
32 Sievert (Sv) dose area using Glasstone and Dolan methodology.11
A median lethal dose for an uninjured person is around 4 Sv, housing is assumed to reduce the
radiation dose of those sheltering in them by a factor of up to 8 times (a protection factor of 8).
For those below 14 or older than 70 or with injuries or medical conditions a median lethal dose
of 2.5 Sv applies. 12
In undamaged areas - ie beyond blast zone 3 (for a ground burst weapon) a protection factor of
about 8 is a reasonable average for Manchester.
In the areas of damage a realistic protection factor would be no more than 4. So external lethal
fallout levels are then around 16 Sv in areas of damage or maybe as low as 8 Sv for those
injured.
So, in relatively simple terms what does this mean?
Beyond the areas of blast damage a lethal "finger" of fallout could kill anyone even inside their
house up to 10 km downwind (extent of 32 Sv plume).
Theoretically this "lethal finger" would be about 0.6 miles wide, in reality wind and rain could
drop lethal radiation anywhere downwind and further away.
In the case of more vulnerable (ill, young or older) people or areas with lighter weight housing,
the width of the lethal finger widens to around 1.8 km and a distance of about 20 km
downwind. (you have already covered deleted sections earlier)
11
This method and the tables in Glasstone and Dolan that supply the necessary data are given in London After the
Bomb.
12 References given in John Ainslie and for example in Rotblat, Nuclear Radiation in Warfare, 1981