Politics Disadvantage Core
RIUDL
Varsity Division
Politics Disadvantage Core – Table of Contents
Core File Explanation for Coaches .................................................................................................... 2
Summary.............................................................................................................................................. 3
Glossary ........................................................................................................................................... 4-6
First Negative Constructive (1NC) Shell ....................................................................................... 7-9
Link Extensions
Link – Drone Surveillance ................................................................................................................... 10
Link – Drug Surveillance ..................................................................................................................... 11
Link – General Surveillance ................................................................................................................ 12
Link – Immigration Surveillance .......................................................................................................... 13
Link – NSA Surveillance ..................................................................................................................... 14
Uniqueness Extensions
AT: Non-Unique – Clinton Will Lose.................................................................................................... 15
AT: Non-Unique – Jeb Bush Wins ...................................................................................................... 16
AT: Non-Unique – Too Early to Predict ............................................................................................... 17
Internal Link Extensions
AT: No Internal Link – Only Large Changes Matter ............................................................................ 18
Impact Extensions
AT: No Impact – Clinton Doesn’t Care About Climate Change ........................................................... 19
AT: No Impact – Warming Isn’t Real ................................................................................................... 20
AT: No Impact – No Extinction ............................................................................................................ 21
AT: Impact Uniqueness – Warming Irreversible .................................................................................. 22
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Politics Disadvantage Core
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Varsity Division
Core File Explanation for Coaches
This disadvantage is quite different from most disadvantages that the Boston Debate League has
ever released in past evidence Core Files. Whereas most disadvantages tell the story about what
happens to the world after the passage of the plan, the Politics Disadvantage describes what
happens while the plan is in the process of being passed. There are some people in the debate world
who are emphatic supporters of using the Politics Disadvantage, and there are some people who are
emphatic detractors. Nonetheless, we believe that including a Politics Disadvantage this year into the
Core Files will be educational for debaters for the following reasons:
1. Research Required – Since this disadvantage always relies on the current political situation in
Washington D.C., effective debaters will have a research burden throughout the season.
Debaters will have to research evidence that describes the political climate, as well as how
their proposed plan might fit into that climate.
2. News Cycle Focus – Debaters will also have to keep abreast of current events. They will
have to consider how current events both abroad and domestically impact the political situation
in Washington, and therefore will be more informed overall.
3. Perception Focus – Most debates regarding the consequences of a plan’s passage focus on
facts and testimony regarding events. The Politics Disadvantage forces students to focus on
how events are perceived.
4. Germane to the Topic – This year’s topic is perfectly suited for this type of disadvantage
because public perception of the government plays a key role in the surveillance narrative in
the US. Ever since Snowden’s leaks, the public has been unsure of what is true and what is
not, which means that heightened political sensitivities to public perception are core to the
topic.
The ultimate goal is that the Boston Debate League will release articles that give updates regarding
the position between every tournament cycle. If the Politics position ever changes, we will release a
new shell, as well as articles for students to cut.
The included politics position is an elections position, one of the main types of politics Disadvantages.
It is not the most convincing of arguments, as you will soon see, because of the fact that the elections
are so far away. It’s included in the packet primarily so that students can gain an understanding of
how politics positions are deployed in policy debate.
Future updates to the politics Disadvantage could include positions that discuss the political tradeoff
between passing one plan over another. This would suggest that someone has limited political
capital to get laws passed, and the plan would take from that limited capital, therefore preventing
more important legislative items from being passed. Another form of the politics Disadvantage
include focus arguments, which suggest that the plan would divert the President’s focus from one
type of issue, which would undermine her ability to pass important policies.
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Politics Disadvantage Core
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Varsity Division
Summary
The Politics DA begins with the assumption that the current state of politics will end in a win for Hillary
Clinton in the November 2016 Presidential Election. At this point in the evidence, the Negative team
will provide a piece of evidence that ties the outcome of the election to the Affirmative case. Most of
the links within the different Affirmative cases discuss the political impact on the country as it stands
now, and thus will be more impactful of the popularity of President Obama. The evidence then
continues on to prove that Hillary Clinton’s popularity, and likelihood of winning, is tied to President
Obama’s popularity. Thus, if an Affirmative position causes President Obama to lose power (political
capital), then that will prevent Hillary Clinton from winning the 2016 Presidential Election, with the only
alternative being that a Republican candidate will win. The evidence then contends that a win by a
Republican candidate will lead to further problems related to global warming, international power
struggles, and thus eventually extinction.
The Negative evidence includes links to each of the four Varsity cases: Immigration, Drones, Drugs,
and NSA. Each of these links describes different ways in which those Affirmative cases will have
negative political impacts for the Democratic Party. There is also evidence that proves the public
strongly supports various types of surveillance for security reasons. The remainder of the evidence
provides answers to any Affirmative arguments against the Politics DA. Two Affirmative arguments
claim that Hillary Clinton is not currently in position to win the 2016 Presidential Election, making this
DA irrelevant. To fight this argument, the case includes strong evidence to show why Hillary Clinton
is still the frontrunner for 2016. The evidence also contends that any small change in the minds of
voters could sway the entire election, claiming that currently the race is extremely close. Finally, the
evidence includes arguments that prove Clinton is serious about climate change, global warming is
real, and acting now is key to preventing eventual extinction due to climate change.
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Politics Disadvantage Core
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Glossary (1/3)
Anthropogenic – (Chiefly of environmental pollution and pollutants) originating in human activity, or
caused by humans.
Barack Obama – The 44th and current President of the United States, and the first African American
to hold the office. Born in Honolulu, Hawaii, Obama is a graduate of Columbia University and Harvard
Law School, where he served as president of the Harvard Law Review. He was a community
organizer in Chicago before earning his law degree. He worked as a civil rights attorney and taught
constitutional law at University of Chicago Law School from 1992 to 2004. He served three terms
representing the 13th District in the Illinois Senate from 1997 to 2004, running unsuccessfully for the
United States House of Representatives in 2000.
Bipartisanship – A political situation, especially in the context of a two-party system, as is the case
for countries such as the United States, in which opposing political parties find common ground
through compromise, in theory.
Caucus – A meeting of supporters or members of a specific political party or movement.
Common Core – An educational initiative in the United States that details what K–12 students should
know in English language arts and mathematics at the end of each grade. The initiative seeks to
establish consistent educational standards across the states as well as ensure that students
graduating from high school are prepared to enter credit-bearing courses at two- or four-year college
programs or to enter the workforce.
Electoral College – The institution that elects the President and Vice President of the United States
every four years. The President and Vice President are not elected directly by the voters. Instead,
they are elected by "electors" who are chosen by popular vote on a state-by-state basis.
Hillary Clinton – An American politician. She was United States Secretary of State in the
administration of President Barack Obama from 2009 to 2013, a United States Senator representing
New York from 2001 to 2009, and, as the wife of President Bill Clinton, First Lady of the United States
from 1993 to 2001. A leading candidate for the Democratic Party's nomination to the 2008
presidential election, she has announced her candidacy for the Democratic nomination in the 2016
presidential election.
Jeb Bush – An American businessman and politician who served as the 43rd Governor of Florida
from 1999 to 2007. He is the second son of former President George H. W. Bush and former First
Lady Barbara Bush, and the younger brother of former President George W. Bush. Bush announced
in mid-December 2014 that he would explore the possibility of running for President. Bush
subsequently launched his presidential campaign on June 15, 2015 in Miami, Florida.
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Politics Disadvantage Core
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Glossary (2/3)
Marco Rubio – The junior United States Senator from Florida, serving since January 2011. A
member of the Republican Party, he previously served as Speaker of the Florida House of
Representatives. He is one of three Latinos (all Cuban Americans) in the Senate, along with Bob
Menendez of New Jersey and Ted Cruz of Texas. On April 13, 2015, Rubio announced his
candidacy for president in 2016 and that he would not seek re-election to his Senate seat.
Nate Silver – An American statistician and writer who analyzes baseball and elections. He is
currently the editor-in-chief of ESPN's FiveThirtyEight blog and a Special Correspondent for ABC
News. Silver first gained public recognition for developing PECOTA,] a system for forecasting the
performance and career development of Major League Baseball players, which he sold to and then
managed for Baseball Prospectus from 2003 to 2009. The accuracy of his November 2008
presidential election predictions—he correctly predicted the winner of 49 of the 50 states—won Silver
further attention and commendation. The only state he missed was Indiana, which went for Barack
Obama by one percentage point. He correctly predicted the winner of all 35 U.S. Senate races that
year. He’s also a former policy debater.
Partisan – A committed member of a political party. In multi-party systems, the term is used for
politicians who strongly support their party's policies and are reluctant to compromise with their
political opponents.
Political Capital – The trust, goodwill, and influence a politician has with the public and other political
figures. This goodwill is a type of invisible currency that politicians can use to mobilize the voting
public or spend on policy reform. Some thinkers distinguish between reputational and representative
political capital. Reputational capital refers to a politician’s credibility and reliability. This form of
capital is accumulated by maintaining consistent policy positions and ideological views.
Representative capital refers to a politician’s influence in policy-setting. This form of capital is
accumulated through experience, seniority, and serving in leadership positions. Thus, political
capital—reputational and representative—is the product of relationships between opinion (public
impressions), policy (legislative rewards/penalties), and political judgement (prudent decisionmaking).
Primary Election – an election that narrows the field of candidates before an election for office.
Primary elections are one means by which a political party or a political alliance nominates
candidates for an upcoming general election or by-election. Primaries are common in the United
States, where their origins are traced to the progressive movement to take the power of candidate
nomination from party leaders to the people.
Ratchet Effect – In sociology, the tendency for central controllers to base next year's targets on last
year's performance, meaning that managers who expect still to be in place in the next target period
have a perverse incentive not to exceed targets even if they could easily do so.
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Politics Disadvantage Core
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Glossary (3/3)
Swing State – A state in which no single candidate or party has overwhelming support in securing
that state's electoral college votes. Such states are targets of both major political parties in
presidential elections, since winning these states is the best opportunity for a party to gain electoral
votes. Non-swing states are sometimes called safe states, because one candidate has strong enough
support that he or she can safely assume that they will win the state's votes.
Thermohaline Circulation – A part of the large-scale ocean circulation that is driven by changes in
seawater density created by surface heat and freshwater flowing into the ocean. The adjective
thermohaline derives from thermo- referring to temperature and -haline referring to salt content,
factors that together determine the density of sea water. Wind-driven surface currents (such as the
Gulf Stream) travel towards the North Pole or South Pole from the equatorial Atlantic Ocean, cooling
as the water travels, and eventually sinking as it gets further north (forming North Atlantic Deep
Water). This dense water then flows into the ocean basins. While the bulk of it upwells in the
Southern Ocean, the oldest waters (with a transit time of around 1000 years) upwell in the North
Pacific. Extensive mixing therefore takes place between the ocean basins, reducing differences
between them and making the Earth's oceans a global system. On their journey, the water masses
transport both energy (in the form of heat) and matter (solids, dissolved substances and gases)
around the globe. As such, the state of the circulation has a large impact on the climate of the Earth.
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Politics Disadvantage Core
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1NC Shell (1/3)
A. Uniqueness Clinton will win in 2016, but her victory hinges on close swing state elections.
Edelman, February 2015
(Adam, “Hillary Clinton would face close 2016 race in 2 swing states: poll,” Daily News,
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/clinton-face-close-2016-race-2-swing-states-poll-article1.2120186)
Hillary Clinton could face a tough road to victory in a hypothetical 2016 general election in two
key swing states, a new poll shows. A Quinnipiac poll published Wednesday shows that the former
secretary of state and presumed Democratic front-runner for the 2016 nomination would barely
squeak by her toughest hypothetical Republican challenger in the swing states of Virginia and
Colorado. In Virginia, Clinton would tie former Florida Gov. George Bush in a prospective
matchup 42% to 42%, and would only narrowly beat out four other prominent potential
Republican candidates. Clinton would squeak by Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul 44% to 42% and
would edge out former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee 44% to 41% — with both contests being well
within the poll’s +/- 3 percentage-point margin of error. In the poll, Clinton doesn’t fare much better
against former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who she would beat 44% to 39%, or Wisconsin Gov.
Scott Walker, who she’d defeat, 45% to 40%, either. In Colorado, meanwhile, Clinton would edge out
Paul and Walker in a prospective matchup by only 2 percentage points — 43% to 41% and 42% to
40%, respectively — both also within the poll’s margin of error. Bush and New Jersey Gov. Chris
Christie, however, were both beaten handily by Clinton in the poll in Colorado. Both swing states
would be key in any candidate’s general election strategy. Obama won both states in both 2008
and 2012 by at least 4 percentage points, helping him to cruise to overwhelming victory in the
general elections both years. The survey of more than 1,000 voters in each of the three states was
conducted Feb. 5 to 15.
B. <Insert specific link here>
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Politics Disadvantage Core
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1NC Shell (2/3)
C. Internal Link – Clinton is irrevocably tied to Obama’s popularity—it’s on the brink now.
Enten, April 2015
(Harry, “For Better Or Worse, Clinton Is Likely Stuck Running For Obama’s Third Term,” FiveThirtyEight, April
15, http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/for-better-or-worse-clinton-is-likely-stuck-running-for-obamas-third-term/)
But all that debate and posturing are largely academic. Clinton is already tied to Obama and is likely to
remain so. Remember when Clinton was Obama’s secretary of state and her favorable ratings ran well
ahead of his? That isn’t the case anymore. Check out this chart of YouGov data since the beginning of
2013: [Graph omitted.] Clinton’s favorable rating has fallen into line with Obama’s. The latest local
regression estimate puts Clinton’s favorable rating at 48.9 percent and Obama’s at 48.5 percent.
And that understates the relationship. Even when Clinton’s favorable rating was stronger than
Obama’s, the two generally fell and rose at the same time. The correlation between the two has been
0.79. Now the relationship is even stronger. YouGov breaks down the favorability ratings by age, gender,
income, ideology, party identification, race and region. Over the past two weeks, Clinton’s favorable
rating in each of these groups mirrors Obama’s. The average absolute difference between Clinton’s
and Obama’s favorable ratings for the groups is just 2.6 percentage points; the median is just 2
percentage points. Keep in mind, all these differences are within the margin of error. The correlation
between Clinton’s and Obama’s favorable rating in these 23 demographic groups is 0.99. Clinton simply
doesn’t seem to have a different base of support from Obama. And that’s par for the course
historically. It’s difficult for a nominee of the same party as the sitting president to run away from that
president. The favorability ratings of the nominee and the incumbent president rarely differ by more
than a few percentage points. Let’s go through all the elections in which a sitting president didn’t run for
re-election. We’ll start with 1960, the first year for which we have favorability ratings. On the eve of the
1960 presidential election, Gallup found that President Dwight Eisenhower and Vice President Richard
Nixon (the GOP’s nominee that year) — two very different politicians — had nearly equal favorability
ratings: 83 percent of Americans gave Eisenhower a positive score on a 10-point scale, compared with 79
percent for Nixon. Eight years later, in 1968, President Lyndon Johnson’s approval ratings were so low
that he decided not to run for re-election, although he still did fairly well on personal popularity. By the end
of the campaign, Vice President Hubert Humphrey, the Democratic nominee, earned a 61 on the
thermometer test, a favorability scale from 0 to 100 in the American National Elections Studies. Johnson
was nearby with a 58. In 1988, Republican nominee and Vice President George H.W. Bush was trying to
take over for President Ronald Reagan. Reagan was fairly popular, and the economy was doing well.
Both earned a 60 on the thermometer test. The 2000 election is perhaps the most interesting because
Vice President Al Gore, the Democratic nominee, was critiqued for not embracing President Bill Clinton’s
legacy. Clinton, of course, was still dealing with the fallout from certain dalliances. For all of Gore’s
running away, his thermometer rating of 57 was just 1 point above Clinton’s 56. Republican John McCain
in 2008 is the lone exception. His thermometer score was 52. President George W. Bush’s was 40. Could
Hillary Clinton pull off what McCain did? It’s possible. Clinton had a well-formed public profile before
Obama came on the scene; she’s not running in Obama’s shadow. In addition, we don’t have a ton of
data points here — just a handful of elections. So we can’t make any hard and fast rules. That said,
McCain was an unusual case. He, unlike Clinton and everyone else on this list, did not serve in the
incumbent president’s administration. McCain also had a considerably different ideological profile from
Bush. Obama’s and Clinton’s are similar. Chances are that the current polling will hold. Clinton’s fate will
more or less be tied to Obama’s popularity and the factors that determine it. Any difference will be
small, though in a very close election perhaps a small difference is all she’ll need.
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1NC Shell (3/3)
D. Impact – Republican victory in 2016 causes extinction—warming and great power wars.
Klare, 2015
(Five Colleges Prof of Peace and World Security Studies @ Hampshire College, 2/13/2015 Michael,
“A Republican Neo-Imperial Vision for 2016”,
http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/keystone_xl_cold_war_20_and_the_gop_vision_for_2016_20150
213)
Ultimately, the goals of this strategy are to perpetuate the dominance of fossil fuels in North
America’s energy mix and to enlist Canada and Mexico in a U.S.-led drive to ensure the continued
dominance of the West in key regions of the world. Stay tuned: you’ll be hearing a lot more about
this ambitious strategy as the Republican presidential hopefuls begin making their campaign
rounds. Keep in mind, though, that this is potentially dangerous stuff at every level—from the
urge to ratchet up a conflict with Russia to the desire to produce and consume ever more
North American fossil fuels (not exactly a surprising impulse given the Republicans’ heavy reliance
on campaign contributions from Big Energy). In the coming months, the Obama administration and
Hillary Clinton’s camp will, of course, attempt to counter this drive. Their efforts will, however, be
undermined by their sympathy for many of its components. Obama, for instance, has boasted more
than once of his success in increasing U.S. oil and gas production, while Clinton has repeatedly
called for a more combative foreign policy. Nor has either of them yet come up with a grand strategy
as seemingly broad and attractive as Republican North Americanism. If that plan is to be taken on
seriously as the dangerous contrivance it is, it evidently will fall to others to do so. This Republican
vision, after all, rests on the desire of giant oil companies to eliminate government regulation
and bring the energy industries of Canada and Mexico under their corporate sway. Were this to
happen, it would sabotage efforts to curb carbon emissions from fossil fuels in a major way, while
undermining the sovereignty of Canada and Mexico. In the process, the natural environment would
suffer horribly as regulatory constraints against hazardous drilling practices would be eroded in
all three countries. Stepped-up drilling, hydrofracking, and tar sands production would also result in
the increased diversion of water to energy production, reducing supplies for farming while increasing
the risk that leaking drilling fluids will contaminate drinking water and aquifers. No less worrisome, the
Republican strategy would result in a far more polarized and dangerous international
environment, in which hopes for achieving any kind of peace in Ukraine, Syria, or elsewhere
would disappear. The urge to convert North America into a unified garrison state under U.S.
(energy) command would undoubtedly prompt similar initiatives abroad, with China moving
ever closer to Russia and other blocs forming elsewhere. In addition, those who seek to use
energy as a tool of coercion should not be surprised to discover that they are inviting its use by
hostile parties—and in such conflicts the U.S. and its allies would not emerge unscathed. In
other words, the shining Republican vision of a North American energy fortress will, in reality,
prove to be a nightmare of environmental degradation and global conflict. Unfortunately, this
may not be obvious by election season 2016, so watch out.
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Link – Drone Surveillance
B. Link – The drones lobby is incredibly influential. It would be a hard fight.
Replogle, 2012
(Jill, Fronteras, 6/5/12, Investigative Newsource and Reporter Sam Greenspan Contributed to this
Story, The Drone Makers and Their Friends in Washington")
SAN DIEGO -- You’ve probably heard of the Congressional Black Caucus, or perhaps the
Progressive Caucus. But what about the drone caucus? Officially, it’s the Unmanned Systems
Caucus. Primarily, the caucus advocates for drones — those pilot-less planes infamous for their
role targeting insurgents in Afghanistan and Pakistan. They’re used as a spy tool in Iran, a drugfighting tool in Mexico and an anti-smuggling tool along the U.S.-Mexico border. Many of the most
successful drone manufacturers are based in Southern California and elsewhere around the
southwest. The drone caucus — like the technology it promotes — is becoming increasingly
important in the nation’s capitol as the government looks to unmanned vehicles to help save
money on defense, better patrol the country’s borders and provide a new tool to U.S. law
enforcement agencies and civilians. “It’s definitely a powerful caucus,” said Alex BronsteinMoffly, an analyst with First Street Research Group, a D.C.-based company that analyzes lobbying
data. “It’s probably up there in the more powerful caucuses that sort of is not talked about.”
And, he says, caucus members are well placed to influence government spending and
regulations. “You have members that are tapped into sort of key places," he said. “You also
have members who have been around for a long time."
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Link – Drug Surveillance
B. Link – While support for treatment of low-level drug offenders is high, Americans still
consider drug abuse and trafficking a crisis.
Pew Research Center, 2014
(“America’s New Drug Policy Landscape”, April 2, 2014, http://www.peoplepress.org/2014/04/02/americas-new-drug-policy-landscape/)
More and more states are acting to revise drug laws: Between 2009 and 2013, 40 states took some
action to ease their drug laws according to a Pew Research Center analysis of data provided by the
National Conference on State Legislatures and the Vera Institute. The public remains concerned
over the problem of drug abuse – both nationally and locally. In fact, a large majority says that
drug abuse across the country is either a crisis (32%) or a serious problem (55%). Half regard
the problem of drug abuse in their neighborhoods, including its schools, that seriously. These
views have not changed much since the mid-1990s. Growing Support for Marijuana Legalization
At the same time, there has been a major shift in attitudes on whether or not the use of marijuana
should be legal. As recently as four years ago, about half (52%) said they thought the use of
marijuana should not be legal; 41% said marijuana use should be legal. Today those numbers are
roughly reversed – 54% favor marijuana legalization while 42% are opposed. (These findings, based
on a separate survey conducted Feb. 12-26, were included in the “Millennials in Adulthood” report
released March 7.)
[___] Elections generally affirm the status quo in drug policy.
Youngers, Senior Fellow at the Washington Office on Latin America, 2013
(Coletta A., “U.S. Elections and the War on Drugs,” 3/5, https://nacla.org/news/2013/3/5/us-electionsand-war-drugs)
Three key factors help explain why continuity has prevailed over change in U.S. drug-control
policies, and each presents a possible impediment to a change in course during Obama’s
second term. First, for the most part drug “warriors” on Capitol Hill continue to have the upper
hand on drug-policy issues debated in the U.S. Congress. As the elections reaffirmed the
status quo in Washington, there is no reason to expect that to change. Second, the drug-war
bureaucracy remains bloated, firmly entrenched, and extremely resistant to change. Apart from
a few notable exceptions at ONDCP, the same officials continue to be the driving force behind U.S.
drug policy, in some cases for decades. And over the years, the drug-policy bureaucracy has
obtained a great deal of autonomy from the broader official policy-making community. Finally,
because of these dynamics, high-level and committed leadership from the President is needed
to begin to change the status quo. Yet the Obama administration is engaged in major debates
on a range of salient issues that continue into its second term. Based on his comments following
his reelection, the president’s political capital will more likely be spent on issues such as climate
change and immigration reform.
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Link – General Surveillance
B. Link – The Public strongly supports surveillance for security reasons.
Givens, 2013
(Austen, Prof Cybersecurity @ Utica College, Harvard National Security Journal, July,
http://harvardnsj.org/2013/07/the-nsa-surveillance-controversy-how-the-ratchet-effect-can-impactanti-terrorism-laws/)
The ratchet effect can occur because there is increased public deference to government during
crises. Legal scholars and political scientists have explored the effect of terrorism on public deference
to democratic governments.[10] While the specific reasons for this vary, the research overwhelmingly
points toward increased trust in government authorities in the immediate wake of terrorist attacks,
though this can wane over time. Popular support can provide the political capital necessary for
legislators and executives to quickly craft and implement anti-terrorism laws. Over time,
despite some slippage, public approval of these laws can continue—particularly when the crisis
that prompted the laws’ creation continues. The ratchet effect can occur because anti-terrorism
laws create a new security paradigm. An aggressive anti-terrorism law can fundamentally alter
societal approaches to terrorism. Surveillance may increase. Police powers can expand.
Intelligence efforts may grow. Public expectations of privacy can diminish. In the aggregate,
these types of changes can represent a drastic change in a government’s approach to
terrorism, and effectively create a “new normal” level of security. Because this “new normal” is
linked to the law itself, reversing the law begins to dismantle the new security paradigm. From
the public’s perspective, this might be an unacceptable option because it may increase societal
vulnerability to terrorism. Government agencies also risk losing resources—personnel, money,
and political support—by returning to the status quo ante.
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Link – Immigration Surveillance
B. Link – Challenges to Obama’s executive orders on deportation prove that the plan is deeply
unpopular in over half of US states.
The Economist, May 2015
(“The Politics of Immigration: Barriers Ahead”, May 28th, 2015,
http://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2015/05/politics-immigration)
To simplify, but not by much, the 26 states seeking to block Mr Obama take the view that
bringing immigrants in from the shadows imposes painful costs on the states where they live.
Texas and the others say that they would be forced to spend money issuing driving licences and
other services to newly legal residents, and so the president’s scheme goes way beyond an
exercise of his executive powers to decide who should and should not be deported. But 15
other, largely Democratic states side with the government, arguing that deportation priorities are an
executive prerogative—and that more broadly it is a net boon to the country to let those already here
work legally. Expect all 2016 candidates to be asked where they stand on the president’s
executive decisions. Some Republicans may have planned to fudge the question, by thundering
about his habit of ignoring the constitution, or by murmuring about pathways to legal status for
migrants that meet lots of arduous criteria and wait a long time at the back of a line. But now that
many millions of otherwise hard-working law-abiding migrants face deportation in America, it may be
the job of the country’s next president to decide their fate.
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Link – NSA Surveillance
B. Link – NSA reform is unpopular—the Paris attacks changed everything.
Hattem, 2015
(Julian, “NSA reform facing hard sell following Paris terror attacks,” The Hill, 2015,
http://thehill.com/policy/technology/229096-nsa-reform-faces-hard-sell-after-paris-attack)
The push to reform the National Security Agency isn’t getting any easier. After a reform bill was
narrowly blocked on the Senate floor late last year, civil libertarians hoped that an upcoming deadline
to reauthorize some of the spy agency’s controversial powers would give them another opportunity to
force changes. But the attacks in Paris last week, where gunmen killed 12 at a satirical newspaper
and 4 at a kosher market, is making that job harder, and strengthening the resolve of the NSA's
backers. “I hope the effect of that is that people realize ... the pendulum has swung way too far
after [leaker Edward Snowden],” Senate Foreign Relations Chairman Bob Corker (R-Tenn.) told
reporters on Thursday. “Hopefully people realize that the NSA plays a very, very important role in
keeping Americans safe, and my guess there will be less of a desire to hamstring them
unnecessarily,” he added. In the next five months, Congress needs to reauthorize a key portion of the
Patriot Act which authorizes the NSA to collect virtually all Americans’ phone records without warrants.
The bulk collection of phone metadata — including the incoming and outgoing numbers that people dial
and when the calls were made, but not people’s actual conversations — has been one of the most
controversial programs unveiled by Snowden more than a year and a half ago. So far, Congress has yet
to touch it. The closest lawmakers came was November, when a long-negotiated bill to end the bulk
metadata collection fell just two votes short of overcoming a procedural hurdle in the Senate. After the
failure of that vote, reformers pledged to press forward this year, even though the outlook seemed bleaker
with a new GOP-majority. While four Republicans voted in favor of last year’s reform bill and one
Democrat voted against it, the vote was largely along party lines. “We still are interested in tying to end
the bulk collection of data,” Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) told reporters last week. Paul, a noted libertarian,
voted against the bill last year, on the grounds that it did not go far enough to rein in the NSA. The recent
terror attacks have not moved him from his position, he said. “I’m in favor of having an NSA. I’m in favor of
having an agency that helps to protect us by looking at signals and information, trying to put that
together,” he said. However, he added, “I think the American people are not in favor of having all their
phone data collected without a warrant.” The agency’s critics hoped that the June 1 sunset date for key
Patriot Act provisions would force action. Civil libertarians have pledged not to reauthorize the law without
substantive changes, leaving dangling the possibility that the spying powers would lapse completely.
Intelligence agency officials have said that that would be disastrous for national security. Yet the more
time that passes since Snowden’s leaks, the more the public's anger over the spy agency's
operations has dimmed. Incidents like the Paris attacks make any attempt to rein in the
agency a harder political sell. “That metadata doesn’t look all that scary this morning,” former
NSA head Michael Hayden said on MSNBC after Wednesday's shooting, the worst act of terror
France had seen in generations. “I wouldn’t be surprised if French services picked up cellphones
associated with the attack and asked Americans: ‘Where have you seen these phones active
globally?’” The Paris attacks are only the latest foreign events to interject itself in the
congressional debate over the NSA in recent weeks. Shocking videos of beheadings carried out
by the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) jolted the national consciousness last September,
and sparked similar concerns about [undermining] U.S. spies. News about ISIS hurt the effort to
reform the NSA last autumn, lobbyists working on the issue said at the time.
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AT: Non-Unique – Clinton Will Lose
[___]
[___] Clinton is winning 2016 but it is close—other conclusions are media hype.
Chait, June 2015
(Jonathan, “Hillary Clinton Isn’t Very Popular, But She’s Winning Anyway,” NYMag, 2015,
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2015/06/hillary-clinton-unpopular-but-winning-anyway.html)
Politico’s measure isn’t terribly fair. It contraposes Clinton’s current favorable ratings with her
ratings while she served as secretary of State, which reached as high as 69 percent. But most of
Clinton’s fall has nothing to do with financial issues and has happened merely because she
has returned from the non-partisan realm. Figures outside of partisan conflict can enjoy wide
popularity (which is why former presidents tend to get more popular — Bill Clinton remains highly
popular, despite the fact that he is more culpable than his wife in their financial troubles). The Clinton
campaign was inevitably going to drag down Clinton’s popularity. 2. Yglesias’s measure isn’t
fair, either. He cites one measure to support his contention that Clinton is highly popular: head-tohead polls in which Clinton defeats every Republican candidate. [Graph omitted.] That doesn’t
make her popular, let alone the most popular politician in America. It just makes her more popular
than the Republicans. 3. The most important force in American politics is “negative partisanship” —
people forming nearly unshakable habits of voting for one party or the other based not on affirmative
loyalty but on antipathy toward the opposing party. In a world of negative partisanship, high levels of
popularity are nearly impossible, and/but also not required in order to win. 4. The country may be
divided into mutually antipathetic blocs, but those blocs are not of equal size. People are pretty meh
on the Democrats: [Graph omitted.] But they absolutely loathe the Republicans: [Graph omitted.]
So that explains why Clinton is leading the Republican candidates. 5. But what about her personal
contribution to this lead? One measure is to compare Clinton’s popularity with Obama’s. Obama’s
favorable rating is modestly positive: [Graph omitted.] ... and Clinton’s is modestly negative: [Graph
omitted.] So Clinton is definitely not the most popular (or, to put it more accurately, least unpopular)
politician in America. She’s a bit less popular than Obama, which may reflect her spate of bad
press, or the fact that Republican messaging has begun to shift its emphasis from the horrors of
Obama-ism to the horrors of Clinton-ism. She’s also probably not unpopular enough to lose.
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AT: Non-Unique – Jeb Bush Wins
[___]
[___] Jeb loses to Hillary---too much a part of the establishment.
Todd, March 2015
(Chuck, moderator of "Meet The Press" and NBC News' political director, “Why Hillary Clinton Needs
Jeb Bush,” 3/10/15, http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/why-hillary-clinton-needs-jeb-bushn320646)
Why Hillary needs Jeb: Our new NBC/WSJ poll is the latest evidence to show that the controversy
surrounding Hillary Clinton's use of personal email isn't going to keep her from winning the
Democratic nomination. A whopping 86% of potential Democratic primary voters say that they
could see themselves supporting her, versus just 13% who couldn't, per poll that was conducted
during the time the story began to grab headlines. Her overall fav/unfav hasn't changed, either -- 44%
positive, 36% negative, compared with 45%-37% in January. But if there's a vulnerability for Clinton in
our new poll, it's this: The country is clamoring for "change" in 2016, even more so than it was in
2008. In the poll, 59% prefer a candidate who will bring greater changes to current policies, even if he
or she is less experienced and tested. That's up from the 55% who said this in July 2008 during the
general-election contest between Barack Obama and John McCain. Given this desire for change, you
can make the case why Hillary wants to run against -- and maybe even needs to face -- Jeb Bush.
Jeb's viewed as less of a change candidate than Clinton is: The reason: Jeb is viewed as less of
a change candidate than Clinton is, especially within his/her own party. Per the poll, 60% of all
registered voters (including 42% of Republican voters) say that Bush represents a return to the
policies of the past, versus 27% (and 49% of GOP voters) who say he will provide new ideas and a
vision for the future. By comparison, 51% of all voters (but just 24% of Democrats) think Clinton
represents a return to the policies of the past, and 44% (including 73% of Democrats) say she'll
provide new ideas for the future. What's more, in a contest reduced to the popularity of last
names, the Clintons are going to win: Bill Clinton has a 56%-26% fav/unfav in the NBC/WSJ poll,
versus 35%-39% for Jeb's brother, former President George W. Bush. Bottom line: Both Hillary and
Jeb have a problem -- this is a change election, and neither are really viewed as "change"
candidates. But one is seen as representing LESS change than the other. We know that the
Clinton folks view Jeb as their strongest opponent. But is that right from this poll?
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AT: Non-Unique – Too Early to Predict
[___] It doesn’t matter if Clinton is nominated. The GOP won’t win against the Dems.
Sirota, 2014
(David, “Do the Midterms Spell a GOP Takeover in 2016? Not in the Slightest,” In These Times,
November 17,
http://inthesetimes.com/article/17328/the_midterms_big_lesson_for_2016_elections_nothing)
If trends from the last two presidential elections hold, those same groups are likely to be far more
energized during the next White House campaign, making Tuesday's results of limited value in
predicting 2016. If anything, data from the midterms reveal that Republicans could face a
steeper climb than usual in two years. Exit polls showed that Republicans actually got a smaller
percentage of the female vote than they did in the 2010 midterms, even as many of their highest
profile candidates tried to moderate their image on issues like abortion and contraception. If that trend
continues, the GOP could find itself more reliant than ever on white males, the one slice of the
American electorate on which the GOP has a lock. But that won’t be enough to win national
elections with the country growing markedly less white. According to data compiled by the Pew
Research Center, the United States is on track to become a majority-minority population in the
next three decades, and people of color consistently vote more Democratic than Republican.
Republicans can try to counteract Democrats’ built-in demographic advantage by influencing turnout.
This, Democrats argue, is the real point of the restrictive voter identification laws that Republicans
have turned to as a fix for supposed voter fraud. It is about depressing minority participation at the
polls. That seems less like a sustainable long-term strategy and more like an act of desperation. Of
course, Democrats have their own problems with midterm elections - namely, turnout. In 2010, the
share of the electorate comprised of non-white voters dropped by 3 percentage points from the 2008
election, and the share of 18-29 year olds dropped by 6 percentage points. In that midterm election,
those groups still voted Democratic, but by smaller margins. As it happens, the 2010 midterm
elections look strikingly similar to the 2014 results. Exit polls from House of Representatives races in
2010 showed a national electorate made up of 35 percent self-identified Democrats, 35 percent
Republicans and 29 percent independents. Exit polls from Tuesday's election showed a nearly
identical breakdown. Those same polls showed the parties maintaining roughly the same level of
loyalty among their own voters as in 2012. The only major difference is that Democrats in 2014
actually improved their performance by 5 percentage points among independent voters. But
again, the midterm losses from 2010 didn’t mean disaster for the party in the presidential election.
Instead, 2012 brought back young and minority voters in large numbers, giving Obama his
second term. The same will likely prove true, unless the GOP goes through a very rapid
transformation. To be sure, if Republicans are looking for a positive political message to take away
from this midterm (beyond gaining more lawmaking power), it is that the GOP can probably look
ahead happily to 2018. Midterms are their meat: They play to their strengths and lessen the impact of
their demographic weaknesses. But they shouldn’t get overly excited about 2016 - at least not
until they come up with new a strategy and policy platform.
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AT: No Internal Link – Only Large Changes Matter
[___] An unpopular move by Obama would kill Hillary’s campaign – we’re at the tipping point.
Judis, 2014
(John B., “History Shows That Hillary Clinton Is Unlikely to Win in 2016,” New Republic, November
17, http://www.newrepublic.com/article/120303/democrats-hillary-clinton-could-lose-2016presidential-election)
The chief obstacle that any Democratic nominee will face is public resistance to installing a
president from the same party in the White House for three terms in a row. If you look at the
presidents since World War II, when the same party occupied the White House for two terms in a row,
that party’s candidate lost in the next election six out of seven times. The one exception was George
H.W. Bush's 1988 victory after two terms of Ronald Reagan, but Bush, who was seventeen points
behind Democratic nominee Michael Dukakis at the Republican convention, was only able to win
because his campaign manager Lee Atwater ran a brilliant campaign against an extraordinarily weak
opponent. (Democrats might also insist that Al Gore really won in 2000, but even if he had, he would
have done so very narrowly with unemployment at 4.0 percent.) There are three reasons why the
three-term obstacle has prevailed. The first and most obvious has been because the incumbent has
become unpopular during his second term, and his unpopularity has carried over to the
nominee. That was certainly the case with Harry Truman and Adlai Stevenson in 1952, Lyndon
Johnson and Hubert Humphrey in 1968, Gerald Ford (who had succeeded Richard Nixon) in 1976,
and George W. Bush and John McCain in 2008. The second reason has to do with an accumulation
over eight years of small or medium-sized grievances that, while not affecting the incumbent’s
overall popularity, still weighed down the candidate who hoped to succeed him. Dwight
Eisenhower remained highly popular in 1960, but some voters worried about repeated recessions
during his presidency, or about his support for school integration; Bill Clinton remained popular, and
unemployment low, in 2000, but his second term had been marred by the Monica Lewinsky scandal,
and coal-state voters worried about Democrats’ support for Kyoto while white Southern voters worried
about the administration’s support for African American causes. The third reason has to do with the
voters’ blaming party gridlock between the president and congress partly on the president
and his party. That was a factor in 1960—James McGregor Burns was inspired to write The
Deadlock of Democracy by the Eisenhower years—and it was also a factor in the 2000 elections. In
the 2016 election, not just one, but all three of these factors will be in play and will jeopardize the
Democratic nominee. Obama and his administration are likely to remain unpopular among
voters. There is already an accretion of grievances among Obama and the Democrats that will
carry over to the nominee. These include the Affordable Care Act, which, whatever benefits it has
brought to many Americans, has alienated many senior citizens (who see the bill as undermining
Medicare), small business owners and employees, and union leaders and workers whose benefits will
now be taxed. Add to these the grievances around the administration’s stands on coal, immigration,
guns, and civil rights, including most recently its support for the protestors in Ferguson. There are, of
course, many voters who would vote for a Republican regardless of who had been in office, but
there are many voters in the middle (especially in presidential years) whose vote, or failure to vote
at all, will be swayed by a particular grievance. That certainly hurt Al Gore in 2000, McCain in
2008, and could hurt the Democratic nominee in 2016. It’s a very rough measure, but you can look at
the shift in the independent vote in 1960, 1968, 1976, 2000, and 2008 to see how the accretion of
grievances can sway voters in the middle.
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AT: No Impact – Clinton Doesn’t Care About Climate Change
[___] Clinton is serious about climate change.
Adler, 2015
(Ben, “Here's What a Hillary Clinton Presidency Would Mean for Global Warming,” Mother Jones,
April 13, http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2015/04/hillary-clinton-climate-change-president)
On climate change and energy, it seems the answer is yes. For better and for worse, Clinton's
record and stances are cut from the same cloth as Obama's. Her close confidant and campaign
chair, John Podesta, served as an Obama advisor with a focus on climate policy. Like Obama and
Podesta, Clinton certainly seems to appreciate the seriousness of the threat of catastrophic
climate change and to strongly support domestic policies and international agreements to
reduce carbon emissions. But, like Obama and Podesta, she subscribes to an all-of-the-above
energy policy. She promotes domestic drilling for oil and natural gas, including through potentially
dangerous fracking. (The Clinton campaign did not respond to our request for comment.) Here are
eight important points about Clinton's climate and energy views: 1. She understands the science. In
a December speech to the League of Conservation Voters, Clinton said, "The science of climate
change is unforgiving, no matter what the deniers may say. Sea levels are rising; ice caps are
melting; storms, droughts and wildfires are wreaking havoc…If we act decisively now we can
still head off the most catastrophic consequences." 2. She thinks the politics of climate change
are daunting. In the same LCV speech, she said, "The political challenges are also unforgiving. There
is no getting around the fact that the kind of ambitious response required to effectively combat climate
change is going to be a tough sell at home and around the world at a time when so many countries
including our own are grappling with slow growth and stretched budgets." She's not wrong, but she's
looking at it rather pessimistically. Polls show that a large majority of Americans support limiting
carbon emissions, and are even willing to tolerate slightly higher energy prices to do so. Moreover,
investing in transitioning to clean energy will ultimately mean more economic growth, not less, and
that's how politicians such as Clinton should frame it. 3. She fully supports Obama's landmark
power-plant rules. In her LCV speech, Clinton praised the EPA's proposed Clean Power Plan to
regulate carbon emissions from power plants, saying, "the unprecedented action that President
Obama has taken must be protected at all cost." As The Washington Post's Greg Sargent noted,
this is hugely important. Reading the tea leaves, this means she would be willing to veto any
congressional Republican effort to repeal the rules—even if they attached it to the budget and a
veto meant shutting down the government. That's an absolute must for any president who is
serious about climate change.
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AT: No Impact – Warming Isn’t Real
[___] Overwhelming scientific evidence shows that warming is real and anthropogenic.
Rahmstorf, Professor at the Postdam Institute for Climate Research, 2008
(Stefan, "Anthropogenic Climate Change: Revisiting the Facts,"
http://www.pikpotsdam.de/~stefan/Publications/Book_chapters/Rahmstorf_Zedillo_2008.pdf)
This paper discussed the evidence for the anthropogenic increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration and
the effect of CO2 on climate, finding that this anthropogenic increase is proven beyond reasonable
doubt and that a mass of evidence points to a CO2 effect on climate of 3°C ± 1.5°C global warming
for a doubling of concentration. (This is the classic IPCC range; my personal assessment is that, in the
light of new studies since the IPCC Third Assessment Report, the uncertainty range can now be narrowed
somewhat to 3°C ± 1°C.) This is based on consistent results from theory, models, and data
analysis, and, even in the absence of any computer models, the same result would still hold based
on physics and on data from climate history alone. Considering the plethora of consistent
evidence, the chance that these conclusions are wrong has to be considered minute . If the
preceding is accepted, then it follows logically and incontrovertibly that a further increase in CO2 concentration
will lead to further warming. The magnitude of our emissions depends on human behavior, but the climatic
response to various emissions scenarios can be computed from the information presented here. The result is
the famous range of future global temperature scenarios shown in figure 3-6.50 Two additional steps are
involved in these computations: the consideration of anthropogenic forcing other than CO2 (for example, other
greenhouse gases and aerosols) and the computation of concentrations from the emissions. Other gases are
not discussed here, although they are important to get quantitatively accurate results. CO2 is the largest and
most important forcing. Concerning concentrations, the scenarios shown basically assume that ocean and
biosphere take up a similar share of our emitted CO2 as in the past. This could turn out to be an optimistic
assumption; some models indicate the possibility of a positive feedback, with the biosphere turning into a
carbon source rather than a sink under growing climatic stress.51 It is clear that even in the more optimistic of
the shown (non-mitigation) scenarios, global temperature would rise by 2–3°C above its preindustrial level by
the end of this century. Even for a paleo- climatologist like myself, this is an extraordinarily high temperature,
which is very likely unprecedented in at least the past 100,000 years. As far as the data show, we would have
to go back about 3 million years, to the Pliocene, for comparable temperatures. The rate of this warming (which
is important for the ability of ecosystems to cope) is also highly unusual and unprecedented probably for an
even longer time. The last major global warming trend occurred when the last great Ice Age ended between
15,000 and 10,000 years ago: this was a warming of about 5°C over 5,000 years, that is, a rate of only 0.1°C
per century.52 The expected magnitude and rate of planetary warming is highly likely to come with major risks
and impacts in terms of sea level rise (Pliocene sea level was 25–35 meters higher than now due to smaller
Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets), extreme events (for example, hurricane activity is expected to increase in
a warmer climate), and ecosystem loss.53 The second part of this paper examined the evidence for the current
warming of the planet and discussed what is known about its causes. This part showed that global warming
is already a measured and well-established fact, not a theory. Many different lines of evidence
consistently show that most of the observed warming of the past fifty years was caused by human
activity. Above all, this warming is exactly what would be expected given the anthropogenic rise in
greenhouse gases, and no viable alternative explanation for this warming has been proposed in
the scientific literature. Taken together, the very strong evidence, accumulated from thousands of
independent studies, has over the past decades convinced virtually every climatologist around the
world (many of whom were initially quite skeptical, including myself) that anthropogenic global
warming is a reality with which we need to deal.
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AT: No Impact – No Extinction
[___] Warming causes extinction—outweighs all other impacts.
Deibel, 2007
(Terry, "Foreign Affairs Strategy: Logic of American Statecraft," Conclusion: American Foreign Affairs
Strategy Today)
Finally, there is one major existential threat to American security (as well as prosperity) of a nonviolent
nature, which, though far in the future, demands urgent action. It is the threat of global warming to the
stability of the climate upon which all earthly life depends. Scientists worldwide have been observing
the gathering of this threat for three decades now, and what was once a mere possibility has passed
through probability to near certainty. Indeed not one of more than 900 articles on climate change published
in refereed scientific journals from 1993 to 2003 doubted that anthropogenic warming is occurring. “In
legitimate scientific circles,” writes Elizabeth Kolbert, “it is virtually impossible to find evidence of disagreement
over the fundamentals of global warming.” Evidence from a vast international scientific monitoring effort
accumulates almost weekly, as this sample of newspaper reports shows: an international panel predicts
“brutal droughts, floods and violent storms across the planet over the next century”; climate change could
“literally alter ocean currents, wipe away huge portions of Alpine Snowcaps and aid the spread of cholera and
malaria”; “glaciers in the Antarctic and in Greenland are melting much faster than expected, and…worldwide,
plants are blooming several days earlier than a decade ago”; “rising sea temperatures have been accompanied
by a significant global increase in the most destructive hurricanes”; “NASA scientists have concluded from
direct temperature measurements that 2005 was the hottest year on record, with 1998 a close second”;
“Earth’s warming climate is estimated to contribute to more than 150,000 deaths and 5 million illnesses
each year” as disease spreads; “widespread bleaching from Texas to Trinidad…killed broad swaths of corals”
due to a 2-degree rise in sea temperatures. “The world is slowly disintegrating,” concluded Inuit hunter Noah
Metuq, who lives 30 miles from the Arctic Circle. “They call it climate change…but we just call it breaking up.”
From the founding of the first cities some 6,000 years ago until the beginning of the industrial revolution,
carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere remained relatively constant at about 280 parts per million (ppm). At
present they are accelerating toward 400 ppm, and by 2050 they will reach 500 ppm, about double preindustrial levels. Unfortunately, atmospheric CO2 lasts about a century, so there is no way immediately to
reduce levels, only to slow their increase, we are thus in for significant global warming; the only debate is
how much and how serious the effects will be. As the newspaper stories quoted above show, we are
already experiencing the effects of 1-2 degree warming in more violent storms, spread of disease, mass die
offs of plants and animals, species extinction, and threatened inundation of low-lying countries like the
Pacific nation of Kiribati and the Netherlands at a warming of 5 degrees or less the Greenland and West
Antarctic ice sheets could disintegrate, leading to a sea level of rise of 20 feet that would cover North
Carolina’s outer banks, swamp the southern third of Florida, and inundate Manhattan up to the middle of
Greenwich Village. Another catastrophic effect would be the collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline
circulation that keeps the winter weather in Europe far warmer than its latitude would otherwise allow.
Economist William Cline once estimated the damage to the United States alone from moderate levels of
warming at 1-6 percent of GDP annually; severe warming could cost 13-26 percent of GDP. But the most
frightening scenario is runaway greenhouse warming, based on positive feedback from the buildup of
water vapor in the atmosphere that is both caused by and causes hotter surface temperatures. Past ice
age transitions, associated with only 5-10 degree changes in average global temperatures, took place in just
decades, even though no one was then pouring ever-increasing amounts of carbon into the atmosphere.
Faced with this specter, the best one can conclude is that “humankind’s continuing enhancement of the natural
greenhouse effect is akin to playing Russian roulette with the earth’s climate and humanity’s life support
system.
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AT: Impact Uniqueness – Warming Irreversible
[___]
[___] Some warming is inevitable, but acting now is key to mitigating effects.
Dizard, 2014
(Wilson, citing a UN report, Digital News Producer, 7-8-14, “Act Now: Experts Say Climate Change
May Not Be Inevitable”, http://theterramarproject.org/thedailycatch/act-now-experts-say-climatechange-may-inevitable/, Accessed 7-9-14)
Significant climate change may not be inevitable if governments take swift and decisive action
now to reduce greenhouse gases, according to a report released Tuesday that rolls back some of
the bleaker and more pessimistic assessments of recent climate negotiations. The report, prepared
for the United Nations by experts from leading research institutes from 15 countries,
challenges the idea that the world can’t avoid breaching a 2 degrees Celsius rise in global
average temperature — many climate scientists have warned that an increase of 3 to 4 C is now
inevitable. Moreover, they suggest defeatism on the 2 C limit target would contribute to dithering by
heavily industrialized countries most responsible for climate change — the United States, China,
India, major European economies and rising economic powers like Brazil and South Africa. “We do
not subscribe to the view held by some that the 2 C limit is impossible to achieve and that it
should be weakened or dropped altogether,” the authors of the report from the Deep
Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP) wrote. Since the start of the industrial revolution two
hundred years ago, the Earth’s atmosphere has seen a dramatic spike in carbon dioxide released by
burning coal, oil and methane. As the gases trap solar radiation, the planet has already warmed
about a degree over the last century, and scientists say the effects are already being felt and can
be seen in melting glaciers, rising sea levels and droughts — problems which are forecast to
become far worse if nothing is done to reduce carbon output.
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