Running head: MICHIGAN WINTER STORM 1
Michigan Winter Storm Disaster
Jenny Parish, Tamara Putney, and Kim Weigel
Ferris State University

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Abstract
Winter snow and ice storms are inevitable in the Great Lakes region of Michigan and can have disastrous effects on communities. Understanding severity of damages that can occur, as well as whether the risk for inclement weather is increasing or decreasing, is critical to knowing how to respond to potential winter storms. Since winter weather, including more snow and ice is increasing in the Michigan area, realizing the impact on local residents, the health care system and all emergency response teams is crucial. Many populations are affected by winter weather.
This problem is compounded when snow or ice cripples transportation, supply chains and utility delivery. Although death can and has resulted from winter snow and ice disasters, mitigation is the best defense. Having government, community and family disaster preparedness plans in place and practiced will lessen the impact of storm effects and likely save lives.
Keywords : winter, ice, snow, disaster, emergency response, mitigation, preparedness

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Michigan Winter Storm Disaster
Winter storms are a common seasonal occurrence in many parts of the United States.
Just like other storms, winter storms require the right dynamics for specific types of weather to occur. Proper positioning of the jet stream, the proximity of a warm air mass with plenty of moisture, and polar air cold enough to freeze precipitation is required to create a winter storm
(The Weather Channel, 2012). If temperatures are cold enough and a significant amount of moisture is present, a severe winter storm may result. Preparedness and advanced warning in the event of severe weather can help to reduce or mitigate the effects of a disaster (Veenema, 2007).
The following paper will analyze the severity of a major winter snow and ice storm and its potential health implications on the affected population.
Severity of Winter Storms
Winter weather often catches people unprepared. “Researchers say that 70 percent of the fatalities related to ice and snow occur in automobiles, and about 25 percent of all winter related fatalities are people caught off guard, out in the storm” (National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration [NOAA], 2012a, para. 5). The severity of damage caused by a winter storm is dependent upon multiple factors. These factors include the composition of the precipitation, population density in the disaster stricken area, local building structure integrity and code requirements, community disaster preparedness, communication, and education on how to respond (Veenema, 2007). Whether or not it is considered a disaster event depends on the severity of impact on the population and the community’s ability to react and respond appropriately. The severity also depends on intensity and duration of the storm. Now, more than ever before, advances in technology and storm tracking devices, allow for early warning and preparation.

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The National Weather Service uses a warning system to alert the population of upcoming severe winter weather. Terms to be familiar with to determine the possible severity of the winter storm event include warning, watch, blizzard and advisory. A winter storm warning is issued 12-
48 hours in advance to alert that a severe winter event may affect the area, but location and timing are uncertain (NOAA, 2012a). A warning is upgraded to a watch when severe weather conditions such as heavy snow, heavy sleet, or heavy freezing rain are imminent or occurring.
Winter weather advisory warns that severe weather events may cause inconveniences or become hazardous. Conversely, a blizzard warning means, “snow and strong winds, 35 miles per hour or higher will combine to produce a blinding snow (near zero visibility), deep drifts, and lifethreatening wind chill” (2012a, para. 2). A lake effect snow warning is generated to warn that heavy amounts of snow will be created by weather conditions resulting from a cold air mass passing over unfrozen lakes (2012a).
Characteristics of Severe Winter Weather
Winter storms can include heavy snow, ice, and blizzard conditions. In the Great Lakes region, snow squalls may cause significant accumulation and reduce visibility. According to the
United States Department of Commerce (2012) snow squalls are characterized as brief, intense snow showers accompanied by strong, gusty winds. Heavy snow and ice can immobilize a region, creating dangerous driving conditions, stranding commuters, stopping the flow of supplies, and disrupting emergency and medical services (U.S. Department of Commerce, 2012).
Extreme cold, snow, ice, and wind routinely affect Michigan during winter months, generating risk to life and property (Michigan State Police, 2012).

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Heavy Snowfall/Ice
Heavy accumulations of ice can collapse roofs, bring down utility and power poles, fallen trees, as well as disrupt communication due to ice accumulating on data and phone lines and tower accessories. “Even small accumulations of ice may cause extreme hazards to motorists and pedestrians” (U.S. Department of Commerce, 2012, para. 3). Communications and power may be disrupted for several days until utilities can be repaired.
Strong Winds/Blizzard
Blizzards are categorized by large amount of falling and blowing snow, along with sustained winds of 35 mph or greater and occur for several hours (Veenema, 2007). Blizzards are often accompanied by drifting snow and dangerous wind chills. During a blizzard winds blow snow over 35 miles per hour reducing visibility to near zero. “While a winter storm may last a few hours to a few days on and off, lake effect snow will often produce snow continuously for up to 48 hours in a particular area” (Oblack, 2012, para. 5). Lake effect snow can precipitate as much as “76 inches of light-density snow in 24 hours with fall rates as high as six inches per hour” (2012, para. 5).
Extreme Cold
Prolonged exposure to extreme cold can cause frostbite or hypothermia and become life threatening. What constitutes extreme cold and its effects varies across different parts of the
United States. In areas unaccustomed to winter weather, freezing temperatures can cause severe damage to crops and other vegetation (U.S. Department of Commerce, 2012). “Pipes may also freeze or burst in homes that are poorly insulated or without heat” (2012, para. 2).

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Discussion as to Whether the Risk for this Disaster is Increasing or Decreasing
Risk for winter weather disasters is increasing for Michigan (Krunkel et al., 2009).
Michigan is located in the upper Midwest and surrounded by lakes. Geography greatly influences weather events for the state. It is normal for Michigan to be blasted with cold and snow from winter weather. These storms produce system snow that blankets the state. The lakes influence Michigan weather with lake effect snow. NOAA (2012b) defines lake effect snow as a weather pattern altered by the impact of a large lake . Wind, cold air temperatures and warmer lake temperatures create lake effect snow. Snow produced from a lake effect weather pattern can be variable with large accumulations of snow along the shorelines and at higher elevations in the state. Kunkel et al. (2009) writes that lake effect snowfall amounts are currently trending up in
Michigan. Increasing lake effect snow intensifies the potential for large areas of the state to be adversely affected with deep snow. Although the state relies on snow for tourism, when the snow becomes too deep, roads become impassable, power lines break and situations arise that can lead to disaster.
Climate change is influencing winters and contributing to the increased risk for disasters related to winter storms in Michigan. Forecasters are predicting increased temperatures, decreased lake ice, and more precipitation (Global Change, 2009). Lake effect snow results when the lakes are not frozen and cold air passes over. Although temperatures are increasing enough to prevent the lakes from freezing , it remains cold enough to create a weather pattern that will produce lake effect snow. Open lake water will also contribute to longer periods where lake effect snow will be a part of winter weather.
Increased precipitation during the winter can come in the form of freezing rain, snow, and sleet. Michigan is quite accustomed to large amounts of snowfall. Equipment and road crews

MICHIGAN WINTER STORM 7 are prepared to handle and remove snow. In contrast, winter storms with freezing rain and sleet add to winter challenges. Warmer temperatures could lead to disasters from storms that have heavy, wet snow and ice. This situation occurred over the past winter and it created local and state disaster declarations. Storms with large amounts of precipitations coming in the form of wet and heavy snow with ice could become the norm for Michigan winters. Heavy snow and ice does not create a winter wonderland it leads to downed power lines and blocked roads that cause disaster situations. Michigan is a four-season state where winters can produce blizzards, lake effect storms, sleet and freezing rain. Changing global weather will continue to have an impact leading to increased winter disasters.
Analysis of Health Implications Related to Winter Storms
Severe winter weather affects all communities. Weather will interrupt supply chains, close roads, and disrupt communication and power. These situations leave people isolated without heat and supplies of medicine, food and water. Populations most severely impacted will be the elderly, poor, and handicapped. Rural populations and small isolated communities will also be negatively impacted by severe winter weather. When roads are blocked and power is down, service personnel must serve population dense areas first then work out to more rural and isolated areas. The potential exists for long periods of isolation without power and communication for rural areas.
Winter is a deceptive killer with many deaths indirectly related to storms. Deaths result from traffic accidents, slips and falls, hypothermia, and carbon monoxide poisoning. Equally challenging is the strain on chronic health conditions. People with heart disease, peripheral vascular disease, diabetes, chronic obstructive lung disease, and asthma are at risk of exacerbating their conditions. Cold temperatures place these people at high risk for frostbite and

MICHIGAN WINTER STORM hypothermia. Also, respiratory distress or chest pain and heart attacks may result while shoveling. Janardhana et al. (2010) report that atmospheric pressure, heavy snow, and cold lead to increased cardiovascular events. Chronic complications result in deaths that are indirectly related to a winter storms.
During a storm, elderly and handicapped people will often stay home. This population will rely on community services and neighbors to provide them with food and water. Heavy snow makes roads difficult to travel and the only vehicles out will be personal and public snowplow trucks. Automobile accidents are a problem throughout winter. Eisenberg and
Warner (2005) state although more auto accidents occur, fewer fatalities actually result because of snowstorms.
Carbon monoxide poisoning is a killer during storms with power outages. People use back up heating systems and heating methods not intended for use inside of a house. Furnaces, propane heaters, and charcoal all emit high levels of carbon monoxide. This is a silent killer during cold winter storms. Poorly ventilated generators can also lead to a build up of dangerous fumes. Carbon monoxide will also kill stranded motorists. Exhaust pipes that are not kept clear cause carbon monoxide to build up in a stranded vehicle. A difficult situation develops because not running the car leads to hypothermia and operating the car can lead to poisoning without clearing the tail pipes.
Risk for morbidity and mortality is difficult to assess related to winter storms. Michigan experiences severe winter weather on a routine basis. Certain health related issues remain a risk during all winter weather. Thacker, Lee, Sabogal, and Henderson (2008) explain 50 percent of deaths attributed to weather are due to cold. Thacker et al. (2008) reports a crude death rate in
Michigan as being 1.9 persons per million due to cold temperatures and 0.2 per million deaths
8

MICHIGAN WINTER STORM 9 resulting from winter storms overall. Michigan ranks only second to Wisconsin in this region for cold related deaths. Research data from Thacker et al. (2008) also shows that most deaths occur in populations over 85 years of age.
Severe impact on the healthcare system develops when staff is not able to report to work.
Medical staff will be stressed by their own personal challenges of surviving a winter storm.
Disasters create increased patient volumes with the stress on chronic diseases, accidents and cold related injuries. High patient volumes combined with coping with personal stresses create a dual challenge for hospital personnel. Power outage and impaired communication will further complicate hospitals meeting the needs of patients. Increased traffic accidents create a higher stress on emergency and trauma care centers. Disaster situations will challenge hospitals with communications, interrupted supply chains, and stressed staff. Disaster planning and drills will help to mitigate the problems associated with a winter storm.
Provision of Prevention and Mitigation for Winter Snow and Ice Storms
Winter storm mitigation should be the foundation of any Northern Michigan communities' emergency preparedness plan. Mitigation means being prepared in advance for a disaster in order to limit the impact on the environment, property and residents (Veneema,
2007). Mitigation efforts taken by government and community agencies designed to protect residents and businesses are customized to types of disasters for that given region or area of the country. For winter storms, preparations taken by county agencies would include such things as ensuring adequate stockpiles of fuel, sand, salt and snow removal equipment are maintained and accessible, as well as ensuring a plan is in place for immediate removal of snow for emergency response services such as fire, police and ambulance (Northeast States Emergency Consortium
[NESC], 2012). It does not take much snow and ice to cripple a community. Police, fire and

MICHIGAN WINTER STORM 10 utility agencies must have a plan in place to respond timely in the event a disaster such as this occurs. According to the NESC (2012) depending on the severity of the storm, power and other utility service loss is the number one result of winter snow and ice storms, preparation for individuals and communities is key to prevent frostbite, hypothermia or loss of life.
Just as important as it is for governments and communities to prepare for winter disasters, it is equally important for individuals and families to have a response and mitigation plan
(Centers for Disease Control [CDC], 2012). The best thing individuals and families can do is to make a survival plan and practice it. For community residents some very no to low cost ways to mitigate for winter snow and ice storm effects, are to have alternative ways to stay warm, have methods to remove snow and ice from roofs, drives and walkways, as well as insulating water pipes in the fall to prevent them from freezing (CDC, 2012). Other considerations to prepare for severe winter weather is to ensure pets are safe, fed and warm and that people understand how to get emergency updates, via a radio, to stay informed of developments and community plans.
As described by Veenema (2007) transportation accidents is the number one cause of death during a winter storm. Being prepared to stay home or ensuring one’s vehicle is as safe as possible is critical. It is also important that both home and vehicles are stocked with survival equipment (2007). Having an emergency kit and plan with survival supplies (food and water) for at least 3 days is recommended (Veenema, 2007). Families and individuals must be prepared for confinement in their homes or evacuation to a local shelter, or other areas, if needed. If staying in the home is unavoidable a survival plan should include supplies to last for at least 2 weeks
(2007). At the very least, if making a survival kit is not an option, anyone living in parts of the nation where winter storms are a possibility should make sure plenty of winter clothing is available, including coats, hats and mittens. It is also important to have a weather radio, a

MICHIGAN WINTER STORM 11 flashlight with batteries, a working carbon monoxide detector, a supply of canned food and water, as well as have enough medications available, if needed (2007, p. 338). It is not uncommon for supplies of food, water, pharmacy products and the most common basic comforts of everyday life to be interrupted for days on end during a severe winter storm disaster.
Lessening the impact of winter storms that deliver snow and ice is what mitigation and survival is all about. Inclement weather cannot be prevented, but being prepared to respond and survive in the event of a devastating storm will ensure family members and communities have the best chance of survival. Staying informed, understanding what types of weather can occur, keeping warm indoors and safe from dangers of downed power lines, gas leaks, as well as having plenty of food, water and other various survival provisions is critical to mitigate the effects of winter snow and ice storms.
Severe winter snow or ice storms have the potential to disrupt the environment and our lives. The severity of a storm can lead to increased morbidity and mortality rates, interfere with mitigation efforts, and create chaos for health care systems. Preparation and education about the potential effects of winter storms help to prepare communities to respond appropriately and can save lives and property. As with any weather related event, technology allows for advanced warnings as to the intensity and severity of such an event (U.S. Department of Commerce, 2012).
With this in mind, mitigation efforts by agencies, as well as individuals, can be extremely effective in lessening the impact of winter related weather disasters.

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References
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