Vocational Training: Victoria’s Industry Report 2013 Prepared by Department of Education and Early Childhood Development Melbourne May 2014 ©State of Victoria (Department of Education and Early Childhood Development) 2014 The copyright in this document is owned by the State of Victoria (Department of Education and Early Childhood Development), or in the case of some materials, by third parties (third party materials). No part may be reproduced by any process except in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright Act 1968, the National Education Access Licence for Schools (NEALS) (see below) or with permission. An educational institution situated in Australia which is not conducted for profit, or a body responsible for administering such an institution may copy and communicate the materials, other than third party materials, for the educational purposes of the institution. Authorised by the Department of Education and Early Childhood Development, 2 Treasury Place, East Melbourne, Victoria, 3002 Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 8 Vocational Training Provision 2013 8 VET Training and Employment Alignment 9 INTRODUCTION 11 Overview 11 Economic Context 12 TRAINING PROVISION Training Alignment 16 20 NOTES ON THE DATA 32 Data and Time Periods 32 Reporting Scope 32 ACCOMMODATION AND FOOD SERVICES 33 Training Snapshot 33 Industry Overview 34 Training Alignment 35 Case Study Victorian Tourism Industry Council Ministerial Roundtable 38 ADMINISTRATIVE AND SUPPORT SERVICES 42 Training Snapshot 42 Industry Overview 43 Training Alignment 44 AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY AND FISHING 49 Training Snapshot 49 Industry Overview 51 Contents continued Training Alignment 52 Case Study Farm Business Management Skill Set 54 ARTS AND RECREATION SERVICES 58 Training Snapshot 58 Industry Overview 59 Training Alignment 60 CONSTRUCTION 65 Training Snapshot 65 Industry Overview 66 Training Alignment 67 Case Study Fire Protection Training Project 70 EDUCATION AND TRAINING 74 Training Snapshot 74 Industry Overview 75 Training Alignment 76 Case Study Early Childhood Scholarships 79 ELECTRICITY, GAS, WATER AND WASTE SERVICES 83 Training Snapshot 83 Industry Overview 84 Training Alignment 86 FINANCIAL AND INSURANCE SERVICES 92 Training Snapshot 92 Industry Overview 93 Training Alignment 94 Contents continued HEALTH CARE AND SOCIAL ASSISTANCE 99 Training Snapshot 99 Industry Overview 100 Training Alignment 101 INFORMATION MEDIA AND TELECOMMUNICATIONS 106 Training Snapshot 106 Industry Overview 107 Training Alignment 108 Case Study Workers in Transition Program – The Lonely Planet 112 MANUFACTURING 114 Training Snapshot 114 Industry Overview 115 Case Study Boat Building Training Project 116 Training Alignment 117 Case Study PACCAR Supply Chain Network 122 MINING 123 Training Snapshot 123 Industry Overview 124 Training Alignment 125 Case Study Stawell Gold Mine Workers in Transition Program 126 OTHER SERVICES 131 Training Snapshot 131 Industry Overview 132 Training Alignment 133 Contents continued PROFESSIONAL, SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNICAL SERVICES 139 Training Snapshot 139 Industry Overview 140 Training Alignment 142 Case Study Engineers Australia Ministerial Roundtable 147 PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION AND SAFETY 148 Training Snapshot 148 Industry Overview 149 Training Alignment 150 RENTAL, HIRING AND REAL ESTATE SERVICES 155 Training Snapshot 155 Industry Overview 156 Training Alignment 157 RETAIL TRADE 162 Training Snapshot 162 Industry Overview 163 Training Alignment 164 TRANSPORT, POSTAL AND WAREHOUSING 170 Training Snapshot 170 Industry Overview 171 Training Alignment 172 WHOLESALE TRADE Training Snapshot 178 178 Contents continued Industry Overview 179 Training Alignment 180 CROSS-INDUSTRY 185 Industry Overview 185 Training Snapshot 185 APPENDIX – ABBREVIATIONS 190 APPENDIX – GLOSSARY 191 APPENDIX – REFERENCES 193 Executive Summary This report examines the Victorian training market performance and alignment to skill needs across Victoria’s industries. It includes an economic overview by industry, with a focus on current and forecast employment trends; an overview of key industry drivers of changing skills and training needs; significant trends in training activity and discussion around training alignment to areas of skills shortage and strategic need, to industry and regional need as well as to employer and student need. The Changing Structure of Victorian Industries The last three years has seen structural change intensify in Victoria, impacting on manufacturing and other goods producing industries. Manufacturing share of industry output has fallen from 17 per cent in 1989-90 to 9 per cent in 2012-13, while business services has grown from 19 to 29 per cent over the same period. This has been matched by a decline in Manufacturing share of employment (by 17 per cent) and a rise in the share of business services employment (by 13 per cent) over the same period. Consequently, employment skills will increasingly focus on information-processing and other cognitive and interpersonal skills. The training sector plays a pivotal role in building the base for the state’s future productive capacity and responding to the impacts of structural change and the subsequent requirement for flexibility in the Victorian workforce. The sector’s ability to develop the skills for businesses today and to respond to emerging skills needs is a key advantage for Victoria. Vocational Training Provision 2013 Despite subdued economic conditions and with several Victorian industries undergoing substantial structural change, there has been growth in Victorian training activity since 2008. 8 The Victorian training system reported 448,100 government subsidised enrolments across all industries. Training activity in 2013 is lower when compared to 2012, however, – a year which saw a surge in enrolment numbers. The significant growth in government subsidised training activity in 2012 was not always in areas of industry and economic need. In response, the Victorian Government released the Refocusing Vocational Training (RVT) in Victoria reform package in May 2012, to help align training to areas of strategic need. In 2013, there were 187,800 reported completions. The highest proportions of completions in 2013 were in Health Care and Social Assistance (19 per cent), Cross-Industry (19 per cent) and Construction (9 per cent). These industries also reported the highest proportion of government subsidised enrolments in 2013 with Health Care and Social Assistance accounting for 23 per cent of enrolments; Construction 16 per cent of enrolments and Manufacturing, 11 per cent of enrolments in 2013. In addition, TAFE fee for service (TAFE FFS) activity also experienced growth, rising by 26 per cent between 2008 and 2013. The highest concentrations of TAFE FFS enrolments were also in Health Care and Social Assistance (18,000 enrolments) and Construction (14,600 enrolments) On average, across all Victorian industries, training delivery by private training providers has increased. Private training providers accounted for 59 per cent of all training delivery. More than half (54 per cent) of all apprenticeships were concentrated in Construction in 2013. Manufacturing and Other Services also had a large proportion of apprenticeships (15 per cent each). Thirteen per cent of all traineeships in 2013 were concentrated in Cross-Industry, while Health Care and Social Assistance accounted for 12 per cent of trainee enrolments. With the introduction of RVT, there has been a significant change in enrolment patterns. Subsidy bands A and B, which attract the highest level of subsidy and represents the highest needs of the Victorian economy, accounted for a higher proportion of enrolments in 2013 (53 per cent) than in 2012 (39 per cent), an increase of 14 percentage points. Mining (98 per cent), Construction (96 per cent) and Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing (92 per cent) had the highest concentration of courses funded at the band A and B levels in 2013. Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 Training Dashboard 2013 This dashboard provides an overview of vocational training across all industries in Victoria in 2013. VET Training and Employment Alignment Vocational training can benefit students and the wider community. The vocational training system must be assessed on how well it equips its graduates for work. This is relevant both for employers and the local economies, which rely on training to provide skilled workers, and for the students themselves, who have a reasonable expectation to perform strongly in the local employment market. This report examines the performance of the Victorian training market by considering how the training market aligns to: 1. Industry needs Alignment of training delivery at the industry level with employment trends and forecasts can be an indicator of the performance of the training market. 2. Analysis of 2013 data shows robust alignment between share of employment and share of training delivery in Victoria's largest six industries. 60 per cent of training was delivered in the six highest employing Victorian industries, which account for 59 per cent of all Victorian jobs - Health Care and Social Assistance, Retail Trade, Manufacturing, Professional, Scientific and Technical Services, Construction and Education and Training. Specialised and/or in shortage occupations1 Vocational training related to occupations identified as specialised or experiencing skill shortages that enhances the productive capacity of the Victorian economy is a high priority for government investment. 41 per cent of all industry enrolments were in courses related to specialised or in shortage occupations in 2013. Enrolments related to specialised or in shortage occupations were highest in Health Care and Social Assistance (91 per cent), Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services (82 per cent) and Construction (71 per cent). 1 The Australian Workforce and Productivity Agency (AWPA) defines ‘specialised’ occupations as having a long lead-time for training, high economic value and a significant match between training and employment. ‘In shortage’ occupations are those that have been identified as having skills shortages in Victoria, based on industry intelligence. Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 9 3. Skills needs in regions Another indicator of performance is whether or not the training market is meeting the employment needs of regions across Victoria. 4. The top five highest employing industries in the State include Health Care and Social Assistance (13 per cent), Retail Trade (11 per cent), Manufacturing (10 per cent), Construction (9 per cent) and Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing (9 per cent). Four out of the top five highest employing industries in Victoria, also rank in the top five in terms of government subsidised enrolments in the state. They include Construction (22 per cent), Health Care and Social Assistance (19 per cent), Transport, Postal and Warehousing (13 per cent), Manufacturing (9 per cent) and Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing (6 per cent). The top five highest employing industries in regional Victoria accounted for 54 per cent of all jobs in the non-metropolitan regions. They include Health Care and Social Assistance (14 per cent), Retail Trade (13 per cent), Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing (10 per cent), Manufacturing (10 per cent) and Construction (9 per cent). 57 per cent of 2013 training was delivered in these five highest employing industries in regional Victoria. The top five highest employing industries in Metropolitan Melbourne accounted for 57 per cent of all jobs in the metro regions. They were: Health Care and Social Assistance (11 per cent), Retail Trade (11 per cent), Manufacturing (10 per cent), Professional, Scientific and Technical Services (10 per cent) and Construction (8 per cent). Half of 2013 training was delivered in these five highest employing industries in Metropolitan Melbourne. Employer satisfaction and student outcomes Two important indicators of training performance are whether or not training contained the right content and had been of a sufficient quality to enable students to find work and whether the employer was satisfied with the level of training. On average, across all Victorian industries, 73 per cent of employers were satisfied with the VET system and 72 per cent of students reported job-related benefits from VET. Student and employer satisfaction with the VET system Source: NCVER Survey of Employers' Use and Views of the VET System 2013 and NCVER Student Outcomes Survey 2012 10 Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 Introduction The Victorian vocational training system has undergone a number of changes over the past few years. Central allocation of funding ceased in 2008 and instead, funding was driven by student demand. A new training entitlement – the Victorian Training Guarantee (VTG), was progressively rolled out between 2009 and 2011. Under this system, eligible students enrolled in courses on offer through TAFE institutes, dual sector universities, community education providers (Learn Locals) and private training providers. While this encouraged a large increase in participation, it became evident that government subsidies was high in many courses leading to providers encouraging large numbers of students to enrol in courses that were unlikely to lead to a job. Consequently, in 2012, the Government introduced Refocusing Vocational Training (RVT) reforms, targeting government subsidies to specialised training and courses related to projected employment growth and skills shortages that would not otherwise be adequately supported by the private training market. The purpose of this report is to summarise emerging training trends in Victorian industries in 2013 and provide a comparative overview of market changes relative to 2012 and 2008 – the year before a series of reforms were progressively introduced. Overview Vocational Training: Victoria’s Industry Report 2013, produced by the Department of Education and Early Childhood Development (DEECD), provides a summary of Victorian training market performance and alignment to skill needs across Victoria’s industries. The report combines industry intelligence and economic analysis with training data to form a comprehensive picture of the relationship between industry skills needs, employment opportunities and vocational training. It also takes into account the importance of the changing structure of the Victorian economy and its impact on skills needs2. The report includes 20 industry training profiles - one Cross-Industry3 and nineteen industries4. Each industry training profile5 examines five dimensions in detail: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Economic context - including employment patterns, economic output and business size, and current and forecast workforce needs broken down by demographics, occupations and regions. Industry drivers – that are changing skills and training needs. Challenges and opportunities – for training in each sector, gleaned from industry intelligence including structural changes and areas of skills shortage. Training breakdown - of significant trends in specific occupations, qualifications and the profile of learners facing barriers. Training alignment to skills shortage and strategic need – including to industry and regional need as well as to employer and student need. 2 Intelligence on the changing structure of the Victorian economy is based on the research carried out by Deloitte Access Economics for the Department of Education and Early Childhood Development (DEECD). DEECD’ s Higher Education and Skills Group (HESG) has introduced ‘Cross-Industry’ which includes those qualifications which are considered to be relevant across all industries. It includes eight sub-sectors: Accounting Services; Business Administration; Business Management; Human Resources; International Business; Information Technology; Occupational Health and Safety; Project Management; Quality and Sales, Marketing and Public Relations 4 Industry profiles are aligned to the Australian and New Zealand Standard Industrial Classification (ANZSCO) 2006 (ABS cat no. 1292.0). The nineteen ANZSIC industries are: Accommodation and Food Services; Administrative and Support Services; Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing; Arts and Recreation Services; Construction; Education and Training; Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services; Financial and Insurance Services; Health Care and Social Assistance; Information Media and Telecommunications; Manufacturing; Mining; Other Services; Professional, Scientific and Technical Services; Public Administration and Safety; Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services; Retail Trade; Transport, Postal and Warehousing and Wholesale Trade. 3 5 Classification of qualifications against industry and occupational outcomes have been developed in consultation with Victorian industry and training market stakeholders. Where a specific qualification is relevant across several industries, enrolments have been proportionally allocated across industries using employment data as a guide. Qualifications which are considered to be Cross-Industry have been excluded from these industry profiles. Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 11 Economic Context In 2012-2013, the Victorian economy totalled $337 billion (gross state product or GSP, current prices), accounting for 22 per cent of the national economy – marginally below Victoria’s 25 per cent share of the national population (with 5.6 million people)6. Victoria plays host to nearly a quarter of Australia’s workforce, with approximately 2.9 million people in employment in 2013. The Victorian economy continues to perform positively in the face of economic challenges linked weaker global conditions. While advanced economies are slowly recovering from the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), emerging economies, particularly neighbouring Asia, continue to flourish, manifesting in sustained economic growth and thereby transforming trends in global comparative advantage. Challenges also came about in the face of a high Australian dollar, but which, only over the past year, has started to retract. The outlook remains sound, but the economic climate has resulted in large reductions in projected government revenue7. The impact of structural change Several Victorian industries continue to undergo structural change, with Victoria experiencing the fastest pace of structural change amongst all the Commonwealth states over the past two decades 8 . Over the 23 years from 1989-90 to 2012-13, an estimated 16.1% of economic output was reallocated across industries within the State economy. Victorian industries are transitioning from an industrial economy to a more knowledge intensive, globalised economy led by a rapidly growing services sector. This structural change in the Victorian economy has largely been driven by the Manufacturing sector, which has fallen as a share of total Victorian output since 2006 – 07. The gap left by the decline in Manufacturing, is largely filled by the Financial and Insurance Services industry which rose from 6.9% to 11.2% over the same period 9. Figure 1.1 shows the shift in Victorian output over the past two decades from Manufacturing and Mining to Financial and Insurance Services and Professional, Scientific and Technical Services. Figure 1.1: Share of state output, Victoria The trends in industry share of output has been matched by a decline in Manufacturing share of employment (by 17 per cent) and a rise in the share of business services employment (by 13 per cent) over 1989 – 90 to 2012-13 (compared to Manufacturing share of output declining from from 17 per cent in 198990 to 9 per cent in 2012-13, while business services has grown from 19 to 29 per cent over the same 6 Department of State Development, Business and Innovation (DSDBI) (2013), Industry Atlas of Victoria 7 Department of Premier and Cabinet (DP&C) (2013) Securing Victoria’s Economy 8 Deloitte Access Economics (2014) Structural change and labour market trends in Victoria, for the Department of Education and Early Childhood Development, Melbourne 9 Deloitte Access Economics (2014) Structural change and labour market trends in Victoria, for the Department of Education and Early Childhood Development, Melbourne 12 Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 period). Consequently, employment skills will increasingly focus on information-processing and other cognitive and interpersonal skills. Growth in (net) employment numbers will be in retailing, professional and technical services, administration, education and health services. Furthermore, it is expected that jobs requiring manual, repetitive and processing skills will continue to decline. Based on the recently announced closures of several large manufacturers in Victoria, it is expected that structural changes within the economy will continue in the near term. The importance of skills and knowledge to Victoria’s economy is growing as the State moves towards a more diverse economy that is not dependent on any one sector, such as Mining or Manufacturing, to generate a significant share of jobs or economic activity; but instead, is centered on a range of knowledge-based industries and especially those in the services sectors. The impact of economic growth Despite recent challenges, there are growing signs that the Victorian economy is improving, responding to challenges through enhanced innovation and productivity improvements. Low interest rates are also providing support to consumer spending and the housing sector. Additionally, a weakening Australian dollar is also alleviating Victoria’s trade-exposed industries. Over the past five years, employment in Victoria has increased by more than 263,000 workers, with Health Care and Social Assistance, Retail Trade and Manufacturing the largest employing industries. Victoria’s economy is experiencing the highest rate of structural change across the country and given the rapid rate of transition, Victorian employment is forecast to grow by approximately 230,000 employees over the next five years10. To realise this employment growth potential Victoria will need to continue to invest in the skills and capabilities of its people. Analysis by the Victorian Competition and Efficiency Commission shows that labour quality improvements were responsible for about 40 per cent of Victoria's average productivity growth from 1990 to 201011. The following table and chart highlight patterns of employment over the last five years to 2012-13 and forecast expected employment through to 2017-18. For example, the Health Care and Social Assistance industry had 343,900 workers in employment in 2012-13. This accounted for 12 per cent of total employment across all Victorian industries. Over the last five years to 2012-13, 74,400 additional people were added to the Health Care and Social Assistance workforce in Victoria, representing an increase of 28 per cent since 2008-09. Current forecasts over the next five years to 2017-18 suggest that employment in the industry will rise by 9 per cent, requiring an additional 29,400 workers. Table 1.1: Employment by industry, five-year trends, Victoria 5-year Historical Trends to 2012-13 % No. Change 5-year Forecast Trends to 2017-8 % No. Change Employment 2012-13 Share of total employment (%) Health Care and Social Assistance 343,900 12 74,400 28 29,400 9 Retail Trade 327,600 11 31,500 11 25,000 8 Manufacturing Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 296,900 10 -26,100 -8 ** ** 247,600 9 33,500 16 15,200 6 Construction 240,200 8 15,900 7 10,900 5 Education and Training 233,200 8 26,500 13 25,700 11 Accommodation and Food Services 181,200 6 29,000 19 12,800 7 Transport, Postal and Warehousing 137,400 5 13,300 11 12,200 9 Public Administration and Safety 133,300 5 21,600 19 2,000 2 Wholesale Trade 130,800 5 5,400 4 9,600 7 Financial and Insurance Services 116,700 4 8,800 8 12,800 11 Other Services 107,600 4 -200 - 8,200 8 Administrative and Support Services 96,000 3 8,200 9 10,300 11 Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 79,000 3 -400 -1 3,100 4 Industry 10 11 Employment forecasts from Monash Centre of Policy Studies (2013) Labour Market Forecasts DPC (2013) Securing Victoria’s Economy Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 13 5-year Historical Trends to 2012-13 % No. Change 5-year Forecast Trends to 2017-8 % No. Change Employment 2012-13 Share of total employment (%) 61,800 2 500 1 5,300 9 58,100 2 6,600 13 4,500 8 44,700 2 2,500 6 2,300 5 34,800 1 8,100 30 3,500 10 14,400 4,300 Mining Source: Centre of Policy Studies, Monash University (2013) Labour Force Projections 45 2,600 18 Industry Information Media and Telecommunications Arts and Recreation Services Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services **Note due to recent announcements across Manufacturing in Victoria about industry closures and redundancies, forecast estimates for Manufacturing have been excluded as forecasting was prepared by Monash University prior to this period. Figure 1.2: Change in employment by industry, five-year trends, Victoria Change in employment by industries (000s), Victoria, 2008-13, 2013-18 2008 to 2013 2013 to 2018 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 Source: Centre of Policy Studies, Monash University (2013) Labour Force Projections Industry and labour market demand for higher level qualifications have grown, with the demand for high level skills growing at 2.5 times the rate of unskilled jobs12. To meet this demand, State and Commonwealth governments have focused on raising the qualification profile of Australians over the last decade. Higher level vocational training qualifications (Diploma and above) provide entry to higher skilled jobs and to further study – generally at university level where vocational training graduates obtain credits towards their undergraduate studies. Industries with the highest concentration of employees with higher level qualifications (Diploma to Postgraduate) include Education and Training (73 per cent of all employees), Professional, Scientific and Technical Services (63 per cent of all employees) and Health Care and Social Assistance (57 per cent of all employees). Vocational skills remain essential to the Victorian economy and help drive economic activity across the State. A significant proportion of apprenticeships attain mid-level vocational qualifications and are crucial to many key industries. Industries with the highest concentration of employees with vocational qualifications (Certificate I-IV) reside in traditional trade areas including Construction (42 per cent of all employees), Other Services13 (40 per cent of all employees) and Manufacturing (26 per cent of all employees). 12 Commonwealth of Australia (2012) Skills for Australians http://www.dpmc.gov.au/publications/skills_for_all_australians/chapter1_overview.html 13 The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) ANZSIC defines the Other Services industry to include a broad range of personal services; religious, civic, professional and other interest group services; selected repair and maintenance activities; and private households employing staff. 14 Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 Table 1.2: Employment by industry and qualification level, 2012-13, Victoria Bachelor + Industry by qualification level (2012-13) # Adv. Dip & Diplom a Certificate III or IV % # % # Certificate I or II No post school quals % # % # % Total # % Accommodation and food services 19,400 11% 14,000 8% 31,200 17% 7,800 4% 108,900 60% 181,200 100% Administrative and support services 20,700 22% 10,200 11% 14,300 15% 4,400 5% 46,400 48% 96,000 100% 8,600 11% 7,700 10% 12,600 16% 3,400 4% 46,700 59% 79,000 100% Arts and recreation services 15,900 27% 7,800 13% 8,300 14% 1,700 3% 24,300 42% 58,100 100% Construction 25,200 11% 16,600 7% 93,400 39% 7,400 3% 97,500 41% 240,200 100% 138,800 60% 30,800 13% 18,400 8% 4,000 2% 41,300 18% 233,200 100% Electricity, gas w ater and w aste services 10,200 29% 3,500 10% 7,100 20% 1,000 3% 12,900 37% 34,800 100% Finance and insurance services 46,700 40% 16,600 14% 11,600 10% 3,200 3% 38,700 33% 116,700 100% 147,500 43% 48,500 14% 47,800 14% 9,300 3% 90,800 26% 343,900 100% Information media and telecommunications 22,400 36% 8,500 14% 9,300 15% 1,400 2% 20,300 33% 61,800 100% Manufacturing 59,400 20% 24,900 8% 66,200 22% 11,900 4% 134,500 45% 296,900 100% 4,900 34% 1,400 10% 3,100 22% 300 2% 4,700 33% 14,400 100% 17,300 16% 9,900 9% 39,100 36% 3,400 3% 37,900 35% 107,600 100% 124,800 50% 31,400 13% 26,200 11% 4,200 2% 60,700 25% 247,600 100% Public administration and safety 45,300 34% 18,900 14% 19,900 15% 3,300 3% 45,600 34% 133,300 100% Rental, hiring and real estate services 12,900 29% 6,100 14% 6,500 15% 1,400 3% 17,800 40% 44,700 100% Retail trade 47,500 15% 28,500 9% 44,900 14% 14,700 5% 192,300 59% 327,600 100% Transport, postal and w arehousing 22,000 16% 11,400 8% 25,300 18% 5,800 4% 73,000 53% 137,400 100% Wholesale Trade 32,600 25% 14,100 11% 20,800 16% 5,000 4% 58,100 44% 130,800 100% 822,300 29% 311,600 11% 504,900 18% 95,200 40% 2,885,300 100% Agriculture, forestry and fishing Education and training Health care and social assistance Mining Other services Professional, scientific and technical services All industries 3% 1,151,200 Source: Centre of Policy Studies, Monash University (2013) Labour Force Projections Figure 1.3: Employment by industry and qualification level, 2012-13, Victoria Bachelor + Adv. Dip & Diploma Certificate III or IV Certificate I or II No post school quals Accommodation and Food Services Administrative and Support Services Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing Arts and Recreation Services Construction Education and Training Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Finance and Insurance Services Health Care and Social Assistance Information Media and Telecommunications Manufacturing Mining Other Services Professional, Scientific and Technical Services Public Administration and Safety Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services Retail Trade Transport, Postal and Warehousing Wholesale Trade All industries 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Source: Centre of Policy Studies, Monash University (2013) Labour Force Projections Increased educational attainment and training to build human capital will lead to improvements in labour market participation, productivity and economic growth. The Department of Education and Early Childhood Development seeks to achieve this by making Victoria a world leader in learning and development over the next ten years14. 14 Department of Education and Early Childhood Development (2013) DEECD 2013-17 Strategic Plan Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 15 Training Provision In Victoria, the vocational training system is driven by demand from individuals seeking training and demand from industry and employers for skilled people. In designing and delivering these reforms, the overarching objectives of the Government remain the promotion of an efficient and responsive level of vocational training activity, to provide fair access to training opportunities, to ensure training activity creates public value, and to improve the quality of training to better support job growth. However, as the vocational training system has become more market-based, to meet these objectives, the role and form of the Government’s involvement in, and management of, the training system is also changing. Vicitoria’s training system is building the skills of the current and future Victorian workforce. The system is highly responsive, meeting the needs of both students and employers and government investment is supporting large numbers of students who are increasingly choosing to study in areas of most demand in the labour market. In 2013 the vocational training system delivered over 448,100 government subsidised vocational training enrolments related to ‘industry-specific’ qualifications (excludes generic training such as workplace preparation, education pathways and low-level LOTE courses )15. Industry focused government subsidised enrolments were highest in Health Care and Social Assistance (23 per cent of enrolments), Construction (16 per cent of enrolments), Transport, Postal and Warehousing (12 per cent of enrolments) and Manufacturing (11 per cent of enrolments). Cross-Industry training, of relevance to all Victorian industries, represented a significant proportion of vocational training activity. These courses cover a range of skills which are used by all industries, such as Business Administration and Management, Human Resources, Accounting Services and Information Technology. This group accounted for 60,300 government subsidised enrolments in 2013, representing 13 per cent of all industry enrolments. Enrolments in Cross-Industry training have grown 15 per cent since 2008. Growth in these skills will better equip individuals to adapt to the structural changes taking place in a number of Victorian industries. Table 1.3: Vocational training enrolments by industry, government subsidised, 2008-13, Victoria Industry 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Accommodation and Food Services 25,200 29,900 29,000 35,500 44,600 30,300 Administrative and Support Services 15,100 11,400 14,400 20,600 21,600 15,600 7,800 7,600 8,000 9,500 9,800 8,300 Arts and Recreation Services 13,500 14,700 19,000 27,500 26,700 15,900 Construction 31,800 32,900 42,400 47,700 51,900 62,700 Cross-industry e.g. project managers 52,600 51,100 57,400 81,500 91,000 60,300 6,700 8,400 9,100 10,200 10,100 12,700 800 700 900 1,000 1,000 800 1,000 1,400 1,700 6,700 6,300 3,100 29,900 36,100 45,800 61,400 77,600 87,300 2,100 3,000 3,500 3,800 3,900 3,300 27,000 23,500 27,200 33,700 41,700 43,500 400 400 300 300 500 400 Other Services 12,600 13,200 17,700 19,500 21,100 21,100 Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 13,200 13,000 12,900 12,400 12,100 10,500 4,000 3,200 5,500 7,900 8,400 8,100 600 700 1,000 1,600 2,300 1,700 Retail Trade 19,900 18,600 23,400 33,200 36,000 15,400 Transport, Postal and Warehousing 11,300 15,000 17,100 28,000 38,000 46,100 600 300 500 900 900 1,000 276,100 285,100 336,800 442,800 505,300 448,100 Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing Education and Training Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services Financial and Insurance Services Health Care and Social Assistance Information Media and Telecommunications Manufacturing Mining Public Administration and Safety Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services Wholesale Trade All-Industries Total ‘Industry-specific qualifications' Include all accredited vocational qualifications at Certificate I and above, but excludes generic training such as workplace preparation, education pathways and low-level LOTE courses 16 Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 15 In 2013, there were 116,800 TAFE Fee for Service (TAFE FFS) enrolments undertaken in Victoria. The highest concentrations of TAFE FFS enrolments were in Health Care and Social Assistance (18,000 enrolments), Construction (14,600 enrolments) and Cross-industry e.g. project managers (11,800 enrolments). Wholesale Trade had no TAFE FFS enrolments in 2013. Table 1.4: Vocational training enrolments by industry, TAFE FFS, 2008-13, Victoria Industry 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Accommodation and Food Services 10,700 12,900 10,400 10,700 12,400 9,100 Administrative and Support Services 1,400 4,500 3,100 3,300 3,900 4,300 Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 2,700 3,300 3,100 3,500 3,500 3,200 Arts and Recreation Services 4,000 4,800 4,800 5,000 4,900 3,600 Construction 7,000 7,600 15,500 15,200 16,200 14,600 Cross-industry e.g. project managers 9,800 11,000 10,300 11,400 13,900 11,800 Education and Training 5,400 6,100 5,500 7,000 7,900 7,300 600 500 500 2,800 4,000 3,300 2,000 300 200 300 300 400 10,100 14,600 16,000 13,500 19,100 18,000 Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services Financial and Insurance Services Health Care and Social Assistance Information Media and Telecommunications 600 1,700 2,300 2,400 2,100 1,700 7,200 6,400 6,300 5,500 6,600 6,500 500 300 100 100 200 100 Other Services 3,300 3,900 3,500 3,800 4,100 4,000 Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 2,100 1,100 900 1,000 1,300 1,500 Public Administration and Safety 1,800 1,700 1,500 900 700 900 100 2,000 2,300 1,600 700 700 Retail Trade 3,800 2,900 2,800 2,000 2,800 1,800 Transport, Postal and Warehousing 5,100 4,000 3,200 2,400 3,600 5,700 - - 100 - - - 89,400 100,800 103,700 102,200 124,700 116,800 Manufacturing Mining Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services Wholesale Trade All-Industries Total Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 17 Table 1.5 below provides an overview of government subsidised vocational training enrolments by the top 20 related occupations from 2008 to 2013. The largest enrolment groupings by occupations were for Child Care Workers, Office Managers and Aged or Disabled Carers. The largest growth amongst the top 20 occupations from 2012 to 2013 was witnessed in Engineering Production Workers (68 per cent), Cooks (46 per cent) and Earthmoving Plant Operator (General) (41 per cent). Table 1.5: Top 20 occupations by government subsidised vocational training enrolments size, 2008-13, Victoria Top 20 Occupations 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Child Care Worker 7,300 9,000 14,300 19,700 25,600 30,100 Office Manager 8,700 10,400 16,200 33,900 42,900 28,400 Aged or Disabled Carer 6,400 8,200 8,800 13,000 16,900 20,400 Storeperson 4,600 7,200 8,800 14,100 18,300 19,000 Truck Driver (General) 2,600 4,400 4,600 7,500 10,600 14,600 Engineering Production Worker 1,600 1,700 2,700 4,900 8,100 13,600 Motor Mechanic (General) 5,200 4,800 4,900 5,100 6,600 8,300 Carpenter 7,000 7,200 7,900 8,500 7,600 7,600 Enrolled Nurse 4,600 4,800 5,300 6,400 7,200 7,600 Cook 5,000 3,800 4,100 4,500 5,200 7,600 Electrician (General) 1,000 2,300 4,600 6,100 7,500 7,600 500 400 1,000 3,000 5,100 7,200 4,300 5,000 6,300 7,000 7,200 7,100 Sales Assistant (General) 13,100 13,400 16,900 24,100 25,600 6,900 General Clerk 12,500 10,500 12,100 18,000 19,200 6,900 Cafe or Restaurant Manager 2,400 5,200 4,500 6,300 9,200 6,500 Bookkeeper 2,300 2,200 3,000 4,900 6,500 5,900 Kitchenhand 9,900 11,000 9,900 10,400 9,000 5,800 Waiter 7,200 8,700 9,000 12,400 18,500 5,700 Building Associate 1,300 1,400 1,600 2,700 4,600 5,600 Earthmoving Plant Operator (General) Plumber (General) Despite overall declines, there was positive growth in completions across a number of industries between 2012 and 2013. The industries with the largest growth in completions included Health Care and Social Assistance (+4200 completions), Construction (+3000 completions), Manufacturing (+1900 completions) and Public Administration and Safety (+1000 completions). Table 1.6: Vocational training completions by industry, GS & FFS, 2008-13, Victoria Industry 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Accommodation and Food Services 9,300 9,500 9,800 11,800 15,000 9,700 Administrative and Support Services 3,500 3,600 4,900 6,900 9,200 6,300 Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 1,000 1,300 1,500 3,700 4,300 2,200 Arts and Recreation Services 3,800 3,800 5,200 10,900 13,200 8,200 Construction 6,600 7,800 8,800 12,000 14,000 17,000 25,000 22,900 29,500 32,400 44,500 35,100 6,500 7,000 8,500 11,000 12,400 11,200 Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services 500 800 800 900 1,000 1,200 Financial and Insurance Services 800 1,100 1,500 1,900 4,500 2,300 14,200 16,200 20,600 25,400 30,900 35,100 600 400 1,000 1,500 2,200 2,100 7,300 7,100 6,900 10,200 13,600 15,500 100 200 100 100 300 100 Cross-industry Education and Training Health Care and Social Assistance Information Media and Telecommunications Manufacturing Mining 18 Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 Industry 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Other Services 4,300 4,300 5,700 7,300 8,900 7,600 Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 3,900 3,400 3,500 3,700 4,100 4,100 Public Administration and Safety 2,600 2,900 3,300 4,900 5,100 6,100 100 500 400 700 400 400 Retail Trade 8,900 10,200 11,900 14,700 21,400 9,000 Transport, Postal and Warehousing 3,000 4,700 3,900 10,000 14,800 14,100 100 200 200 300 400 700 102,400 107,900 128,000 170,100 220,000 187,800 Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services Wholesale Trade All Industries Total Under Refocusing Vocational Training (RVT) reform, Government subsidies for training have been set to strengthen public investment in training in specialised skills, training to address skills in shortage and training related to areas of employment opportunity. The reforms also assessed the extent to which government investment is required to stimulate delivery of, and participation in, this training to meet industry needs. Overall, the highest subsidy levels have been allocated to courses where contribution to the economy is assessed as high, and where government subsidy is seen as essential in enabling delivery and participation in training. There has been a marked shift in enrolment patterns since the RVT reforms were introduced in May 2012. Data from 2013 show that about 53 per cent of all industry-specific government subsidised enrolments were within subsidy bands A and B, which attract the highest level of subsidy. Industry-specific enrolments within subsidy bands D and E comprised 17 per cent in 2013. The table below provides an overview of government subsidised enrolments by industry in 2013. Mining (98 per cent), Construction (96 per cent) and Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing (92 per cent) had the highest concentration of courses funded at the band A and B levels. Figure 1.4: Government subsidised enrolments for all industries by funding bands, 2012-2013 Band A 2013 2012 19% 14% Band B Band C 34% 25% Band D Band E 30% 25% 12% Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 8% 9% 24% 19 Table 1.7: Vocational training enrolments by industry and funding bands, government subsidised, 2013, Victoria Subsidy Bands Band A Band B Band C Band D Band E Accommodation and Food Services 25% 31% 20% 3% 22% Administration and Support Services 2% 8% 46% 32% 13% Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 7% 85% 8% 0% 0% Arts and Recreation Services 4% 27% 21% 13% 35% Construction 73% 23% 4% 0% 0% Cross Industry 0% 2% 57% 20% 21% Education and Training 0% 26% 69% 1% 4% Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste 50% 8% 42% 0% 0% Financial and Insurance Services 0% 0% 58% 42% 0% Healthcare and Social Assistance 0% 45% 52% 2% 0% Information, Media and Telecommunications 0% 22% 33% 45% 0% Manufacturing 26% 57% 6% 0% 10% Mining 82% 16% 2% 0% 0% Personal and Other Services 51% 22% 20% 7% 0% Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 14% 17% 46% 24% 0% Public Administration and Safety 1% 18% 38% 43% 0% Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services 0% 0% 97% 3% 0% 22% 4% 3% 29% 43% Transport, Postal and Warehousing Services 1% 85% 13% 1% 0% Wholesale Trade 4% 34% 58% 3% 0% Retail Trade Training Alignment Like all formal education, participation in vocational training has a range of benefits for both the student and the wider community. A significant portion of training in the vocational sector expressly teaches foundation skills or courses which lead to educational advancement. At its base, however, a vocational training system must be assessed on how well it equips its students for work. This is relevant both for employers and the local regional economies, which rely on training to provide skilled workers, and for the students themselves, who have a reasonable expectation to perform strongly in the local employment market. Four pillars of vocational benefit are considered in this report: 1. Alignment with industry needs: has training delivery been broadly aligned at the industry level with employment and economic trends and forecasts across key industries? 2. Alignment to areas of shortage and strategic need: has training delivery grown in areas of identified skill shortages, and specialised occupations which reflect areas of strategic need for skills in the economy? 3. Alignment with regional needs: has training delivery responded to regional economic variations? 4. Alignment to student and employer needs: based on comprehensive NCVER surveys, has training contained the right content and been of sufficient quality to enable students to find work, and are employers satisfied with the level of training? Analysis of alignment to these four pillars is provided for each of the 19 industries featured in this report, together with a ‘Cross-Industry’ summary. 20 Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 Top 6 employing industries accounted for Industry needs Strong alignment between share of employment and share of training delivery in Victoria's six largest industries 59% of all Victorian jobs. They were: Health Care and Social Assistance; Retail Trade; Manufacturing; Professional, Scientific and Technical Services; Construction; Education and Training 60% of 2013 training was delivered in these six highest employing Victorian industries Training Alignment Summary 2013 32% Specialised and/or skill shortage occupations of all industry employment are aligned to specialised/ in shortage occupations 41% of all government subsidised enrolments were in courses aligned to specialised/ skill shortage occupations This represents a growth of +8% in enrolments aligned to specialised / in shortage occupations since 2008 Top 5 Top 5 highest employing industries in regional Victoria accounted for highest employing industries in Metropolitan Melbourne accounted for 54% Skills needs in regions Good alignment between training delivery and employment needs in regions of all jobs in regional Victoria. They were: Health Care and Social Assistance, Retail Trade, Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing Manufacturing and Construction. 57% of 2013 training was delivered in these five highest employing industries in regional Victoria. Employer satisfaction and student outcomes Strong alignment between training delivery and employer and student needs Industries with the highest proportion ofenrolments in specialised/ in shortage occupations: Health Care and Social Assistance (91%); Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services (82%); Construction (71%) 50% of all jobs in the Metropolitan Melbourne. They were: Health Care and Social Assistance, Retail Trade, Manufacturing Professional, Scientific and Technical Services and Construction. 50% of 2013 training was delivered in these five highest employing industries in Metropolitan Melbourne. 73% 72% of Victorian employers were satisfied with the VET system of Victorian students reported job-related benefits from VET Alignment to industry needs Industry Alignment Figure 1.5 shows employment and government subsidised enrolments by industry. Industries have been ranked by share of Victorian employment for 2012-13. Analysis of 2013 data shows strong alignment between the share of employment and the share of training delivery in Victoria's largest six industries. Sixty per cent of training was delivered in the six highest employing Victorian industries, which accounted for 59 per cent of all Victorian jobs. They include Health Care and Social Assistance, Retail Trade, Manufacturing, Professional, Scientific and Technical Services, Construction and Education and Training. Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 21 Figure 1.5: Industry share of employment and vocational training, 2013, Victoria Employment 2013 (% total) Enrolments 2013 (% total) Health Care and Social Assistance 12% Retail Trade 11% Manufacturing 10% Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 9% Construction 8% Education and Training 8% Accommodation and Food Services 6% Health Care and Social Assistance Retail Trade Construction Transport, Postal and Warehousing Public Administration and Safety Wholesale Trade 5% Wholesale Trade Administrative and Support Services 3% Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 3% Financial and Insurance Services 8% 12% 2% 0.3% 1% Other Services 5% Administrative and Support Services Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing Information Media and Telecommunications 2% Information Media and Telecommunications Arts and Recreation Services 2% Arts and Recreation Services Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services 16% 3% Accommodation and Food Services 5% 4% 3% Education and Training 5% 4% 11% Professional, Scientific and Technical Services Public Administration and Safety Other Services 4% Manufacturing Transport, Postal and Warehousing Financial and Insurance Services 23% 4% 2% 1% 4% Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services 0.4% Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services 1% Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services 0.2% Mining 0.5% Mining 0.1% 2% Source: Centre of Policy Studies, Monash University (2013) Labour Force Projections; SV Training System Health Care and Social Assistance Health Care and Social Assistance, is forecast to remain Victoria’s largest industry employer through to 2017-1816 and represented the largest share of ‘industry aligned17’ enrolments in 2013 (23 per cent). While some of the recent demand for training in this industry is driven by regulatory compliance, strong enrolment growth should prepare Victoria to respond to forecast jobs growth (employment in Health Care and Social Assistance is anticipated to grow by 29,400 jobs by 2017-18), as well as help combat industry skills shortages. Retail Trade The Retail Trade industry was Victoria’s second largest employer in 2013. Vocational training in the Retail Trade industry has shifted considerably, with 15,400 enrolments in 2013, down from 36,000 enrolments in 2012. Vocational training aligned to the Retail Trade industry grew strongly between 2008 and 2012, following the phased introduction of a demand driven training system in 2009. This strong growth resulted in a higher supply of graduates than forecast industry need in a number of areas. In a re-balancing of training activity through 2013, a number of Retail Trade courses related to Retail Managers, Sales Assistants (General) and Sales Representatives occupations showed lower enrolments. The Refocusing Vocational Training initiative in 2012 better balanced the supply of graduates in Retail Trade to meet future industry need, as the previous high public investment in vocational training in Retail Trade was not necessary to secure the pipeline of employees required to meet the demands industry. 16DEECD subscribes to the Monash CoPS Economic Forecasts Model which provides employment and output forecasts down to the 3-digit ANZSIC level, occupational forecasts down to the 4-digit ANZSCO level as well as high level aggregation forecasts of hours worked and ASCED qualifications attained. This report utilises the CoPS five year forecast to 2017-8 for analysis in the VET Industry Profiles. 17 These enrolments exclude courses without a direct vocational outcome, including pathway courses that support foundation learning, secondary education, LLN and short courses 22 Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 Manufacturing The Manufacturing industry remains a critical employer within the Victorian economy and was the third largest employer across the State. Performance within the Manufacturing industry has been mixed with a number of sub-sectors experiencing employment and output declines over the five years to 2017-18. Some sub-sectors, however have continued to perform above average despite a high Australian dollar, overseas competition and the resulting impact on production costs and productivity growth. Sub-sectors that have maintained positive growth over the last five years includes Food Products Manufacturing, Petrol and Coal Products Manufacturing, Basic Chemical Products Manufacturing and Metal Products Manufacturing. Those sub-sectors within Manufacturing that have been declining have experienced the highest incidence of retrenchments (8 per cent). Job mobility to another sector is relatively low, and most likely confined to employees with sales, administrative and management skills, where these skills are common across industry sectors. Employees with trade skills specific to Manufacturing are most likely confined to seeking work within the sector, with greater exposure to restructuring and job losses. For machine operators, product assemblers and engineers training to support transition is high priority, especially for employees aged over 50 years of age or those who worked for over ten years in their last job. It is important to up-skill and transition skilled employees into growing Manufacturing sub-sectors or related industries. Particularly important in this transition are cross-skilling and hybrid skills that will enable an employee to work with integrated technologies, especially across mechanical, electrical, digital and sustainability roles. Vocational training enrolments related to the Manufacturing industry have continued to grow in 2013 (4 per cent growth between 2012 and 2013). Some of the growth in enrolments has been in Manufacturing sub-sectors forecast to grow over the next five years to 2017-18. A significant portion of increased training activity has been in general Manufacturing skills, demonstrating the vital role skills development can play in supporting business innovation and productivity improvements in an industry in transition. Victoria’s training system has had to responded quickly to the rapid pace of industry restructure and resulting retrenchments, particularly in Manufacturing. In 2013 there were a total of 50,500 enrolments by students aligned to industries facing restructure with low level qualifications (i.e. less than Certificate II level) or no post school qualifications. Enrolments by these vulnerable students have increased by 75 per cent since 2010. Construction Construction was Victoria’s fifth largest employer, with 240,200 employees in 2012-13. Enrolments related to the Construction industry were strong in 2013, with 62,700 government subsidised enrolments or 16 per cent of ‘all industry’ enrolments. This represents a 20 per cent growth in enrolments between 2012 and 2013. Professional, Scientific and Technical Services and Education and Training Victoria’s Professional, Scientific and Technical Services and Education and Training industries were the fourth and sixth largest industry employers respectively. In both industries, however, over 50 per cent of employees held higher education qualifications. This compares with a Victorian average of 29 per cent of the workforce, and explains the relatively low representation of these industries in vocational training. In 2013, enrolments in courses aligned to the Professional, Scientific and Technical Services industry made up 3 per cent of vocational training compared with 9 per cent of employment; enrolments in Education and Training qualifications accounted for 3 per cent of vocational training while this industry accounted for 8 per cent of Victorian jobs. Occupations Table 1.8 highlights the top thirty employing occupations related to vocational training outcomes 18 across the Victorian economy. Forecasts presented in the table estimate average annual employment needs by 18 Excludes occupations that are linked to higher education pathways only and have no relevant vocational training courses associated with them. Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 23 occupation. Average annual employment needs include employment growth or decline19 and replacement demand20 for the next five years. When comparing projected annual employment needs with 2013 enrolment levels, some broad messages can be established regarding the alignment between government subsidised enrolments in training and industry requirements. Across the majority of the top 30 vocational training related occupations, vocational training delivery is likely to adequately meet the needs of the economy, based on estimates of average annual employment need over the next five years. Vocational training enrolment levels in occupations related to Software and Applications Programming, Production Management and Accounting should be monitored through 2014 to ensure a sufficient supply of vocational training graduates for the Victorian economy. It should be noted, however, that a high proportion of employees in these occupations hold higher education qualifications. Furthermore, enrolments for Child Carers and Aged Care Workers, while very high, reflect the longer-term context of people's careers, given an ageing workforce and increasing demand for services such as childcare as disposable incomes and female workforce participation rates continue to grow. Table 1.8: Top 30 occupations by employment (related to vocational training only*) and government subsidised enrolments, Victoria 2012-13 employment Top 30 Occupations Sales Assistants (General) Employment growth to 2017-18 5-yr average annual employment needs Government Subsidised VET Enrolments 2013 141,200 7,800 9,000 6,900 Retail Managers 57,500 4,400 2,300 40 Accountants 45,700 6,200 2,400 1,400 Receptionists 45,700 3,000 2,200 1,800 General Clerks 43,100 3,100 1,900 6,900 Truck Drivers 40,900 4,500 1,900 14,600 Accounting Clerks 39,900 4,600 1,700 600 Aged and Disabled Carers 37,400 6,100 2,100 20,400 Commercial Cleaners 36,100 2,400 1,500 1,600 Storepersons 36,100 2,000 1,500 19,000 Carpenters and Joiners 35,400 3,200 2,000 8,000 Waiters 32,400 3,200 2,700 5,700 Bookkeepers 31,700 1,900 1,500 5,900 Software and Applications Programmers 29,500 3,100 1,800 100 Livestock Farmers 29,300 -3,700 -200 40 Kitchenhands 29,200 1,000 1,700 5,800 Office Managers Contract, Program and Project Administrators 28,900 -1,200 500 28,400 27,200 5,300 1,600 1,300 Electricians 26,900 2,800 1,600 7,700 Child Carers 26,400 -2,300 600 30,100 Sales Representatives 25,800 1,600 1,100 100 Plumbers 24,000 1,100 1,300 7,100 Purchasing and Supply Logistics Clerks 23,700 2,000 1,100 5,600 Motor Mechanics 21,600 1,300 1,400 8,400 19 Forecast employment growth or decline is the expected change in the number of jobs in an occupation within a given period year to year. The period presented in the table is from 2012-13 to 2017-18. 20 Replacement demand is the number of existing workers that are forecast to leave the occupation through retirement, moving into a different industry or occupation or moving interstate etc. that require replacing to meet existing employment needs. 24 Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 2012-13 employment Top 30 Occupations Employment growth to 2017-18 5-yr average annual employment needs Government Subsidised VET Enrolments 2013 Secretaries 21,000 1,500 1,100 200 Gardeners 20,300 1,700 1,200 4,000 Chefs 20,200 3,700 1,700 2,900 Management and Organisation Analysts 18,700 3,300 1,200 1,100 Advertising and Marketing Professionals 18,400 1,400 1,100 1,000 Production Managers 18,200 2,800 1,200 10 * excludes occupations that are linked to higher education pathways only and have no relevant vocational training courses associated with them Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 25 Alignment to specialised and/or in shortage occupations The Victorian training system is demand driven, responding to individuals seeking training and to industry and employers needing skilled people. Businesses and industry bodies are best placed to understand their training needs and work closely with training providers to form solutions. DEECD operates an Industry Participation Model to help ensure employers', regions’ and industries' training needs are better met. The model is based on a new partnership approach between government, industry and training providers. For more details please visit: http://www.education.vic.gov.au/Documents/about/department/industryparticipationmodel.pdf This section reports on vocational training delivery in 2013 and how it corresponds to the occupational skills requirements of the Victorian economy. In particular, it considers the extent to which training undertaken by individuals exercising their training entitlement aligns or responds to the Victorian economy’s need for specialist skills or occupations with reported skills shortages. 'Specialised' occupations • Uses the Australian Workforce and Productivity Agency (formerly Skills Australia) list of specialised occupations, which is used to inform the skilled migration program • These occupations have a long lead-time for training, high economic value and a significant match between training and employment 'In shortage' occupations • Uses the 201221 DEECD Skills Shortage list • List compiled with reference to reports from Victorian industry training bodies and direct consultation with industry groups and workforce planning agencies • National advice included where it had relevance to Victoria Overall, 41 per cent of ‘industry-specific’ enrolments22 related to specialised or in shortage occupations in 2013. This represents a growth of 8 percentage points from 2008. Enrolments related to specialised or in shortage occupations were highest in Health Care and Social Assistance (91 per cent), Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services (82 per cent) and Construction (71 per cent). Table 1.9, following, provides a summary of government subsidised enrolments in courses aligned to specialised and in shortage occupations by industry from 2008 to 2013. 21 DEECD will be releasing a new Skills Shortage List at the end of Q1 2014 22 An industry-specific enrolment include all accredited vocational qualifications at Certificate I and above, but excludes generic training such as foundation skills, education pathways and low-level LOTE courses. It allows like-with-like comparison of specialised and in shortage categories against broader training delivery trends 26 Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 Table 1.9: Enrolments by industry in specialised/skill shortage qualifications, government subsidised, 2008-2013 2008 2009 % of All Enrolments 5,800 20% 11,800 26% 10,900 36% - - - - - - - 500 6% 600 6% 600 7% 700 8% 5% 700 3% 800 3% 700 3% 1,300 8% 24,500 77% 29,700 70% 33,700 71% 37,100 71% 44,700 71% Cross-industry 5,100 11% 4,400 8% 3,800 5% 3,300 4% 2,100 4% Education and Training 6,300 75% 6,700 73% 6,200 61% 5,700 56% 3,900 31% 66% 500 65% 500 58% 800 82% 800 81% 600 82% - - - - - - - - 100 2% 100 2% 27,600 92% 32,700 91% 41,700 91% 55,300 90% 70,300 90% 79,500 91% 200 10% 600 19% 700 20% 500 13% 500 13% 500 16% 10,100 37% 8,900 38% 9,500 35% 8,600 25% 8,900 21% 10,000 23% - - - - - - - - - - - - 5,000 40% 4,400 34% 4,500 25% 4,700 24% 5,900 28% 7,400 35% 3,500 26% 3,200 24% 3,100 24% 3,100 25% 3,100 26% 3,200 31% 1,500 37% 1,300 42% 1,600 30% 400 5% 400 5% 300 4% - - - - - - - - - - - - Retail Trade 1,400 7% 1,300 7% 1,300 6% 1,400 4% 1,800 5% 2,400 16% Transport, Postal and Warehousing 2,900 26% 4,800 32% 5,300 31% 8,300 30% 11,100 29% 16,600 36% - - - - - - - - - - - - 91,000 33% 102,200 36% 115,800 34% 136,200 31% 162,100 32% 184,400 41% Manufacturing Mining Other Services Professional, Scientific and Technical Services Public Administration and Safety Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services Wholesale Trade All-Industries Total % of All Enrolments No. In Shortage or Specialised Enrolments 11% 6,000 20% 8,000 23% - - - - - 400 4% 400 5% 600 5% 600 25,600 78% 10% 5,400 4,800 71% 500 2013 % of All Enrolments Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services Financial and Insurance Services Health Care and Social Assistance Information Media and Telecommunications 2,900 2012 % of All Enrolments Construction % of All Enrolments No. In Shortage or Specialised Enrolments 2011 No. In Shortage or Specialised Enrolments Accommodation and Food Services Administrative and Support Services Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing Arts and Recreation Services % of All Enrolments No. In Shortage or Specialised Enrolments 2010 No. In Shortage or Specialised Enrolments Industry No. In Shortage or Specialised Enrolments Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 27 Table 1.10 shows employment by specialised or in shortage occupation. Four out of the 6 highest enrolments and employment are in the same industries - Health Care and Social Assistance, Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services, Construction and Other Services. In 2013, 91 per cent of all Health Care and Social Assistance enrolments were in occupations categorised as either specialised or facing skills shortages. This compares to 60 per cent of all employment in the industry aligned to specialised or skills shortage occupations. Similarly, 82 per cent of all Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services enrolments were in occupations categorised as either specialised or facing skills shortages, compared to 32 per cent of all employment in the industry aligned to specialised or skills shortage occupations.71 per cent of all 2013 Construction enrolments were aligned to specialised/ skill shortage occupations compared to 60 per cent of employment aligned to specialised or skills shortage occupations. Table 1.10: Employment by industry in specialised/in shortage occupations No. In Shortage or Specialised Employment % of All Employment Accommodation and Food Services 30,600 20% Administrative and Support Services 7,200 9% Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 2,800 5% Arts and Recreation Services 2,900 7% Construction 120,100 60% Education and Training 112,100 56% 8,700 32% Industry Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services Financial and Insurance Services 14,800 14% 172,400 60% 5,900 12% 61,400 23% 1,900 25% Other Services 28,000 31% Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 67,400 35% Public Administration and Safety 43,200 31% Health Care and Social Assistance Information Media and Telecommunications Manufacturing Mining Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services 4,400 13% Retail Trade 50,000 19% Transport, Postal and Warehousing 28,400 25% Wholesale Trade 13,700 12% All industry total 776,100 32% Note: Employment data based on ABS Census 2011 at ANZSCO 6 digit level, using HESG 2012 Skills Shortage list and AWPA Specialised list. Alignment to skill needs in regions Regional cities and communities play a key role in driving the growth and prosperity of Victoria. Regional Victoria has an open and diverse economy and is the primary source of the State’s agricultural output, food production and processing, energy and mineral resources.23 Future growth in the regions will be dependent upon a range of factors including sustainability and population growth, access to markets and competitiveness, integrated planning and cooperation as well as building and supporting the human capital of regional Victoria through skills development, education and training. For regional Victoria, industries with the highest concentration of employees working in the regions include Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing, Mining and Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services. 23 Committee for Economic Development of Victoria (2013) Reinventing the Regions – Victoria’s Changing Regional Economics 28 Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 Table 1.11: Employment by industry and region, 2012-13, Victoria Regional Distribution Industry Accommodation and Food Services % Metropolitan 132,300 73 % RegionaI 48,900 27 Total Employment 2012-13 181,200 Administrative and Support Services 77,800 81 18,200 19 96,000 Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 15,000 19 64,000 81 79,000 Arts and Recreation Services 46,500 80 11,600 20 58,100 Construction 172,900 72 67,300 28 240,200 Education and Training 172,600 74 60,600 26 233,200 22,300 64 12,500 36 34,800 Financial and Insurance Services 102,700 88 14,000 12 116,700 Health Care and Social Assistance 251,000 73 92,900 27 343,900 52,500 85 9,300 15 61,800 225,600 76 71,300 24 296,900 7,900 55 6,500 45 14,400 80,700 75 26,900 25 107,600 212,900 86 34,700 14 247,600 Public Administration and Safety 96,000 72 37,300 28 133,300 Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services 35,300 79 9,400 21 44,700 Retail Trade 239,100 73 88,500 27 327,600 Transport, Postal and Warehousing 105,800 77 31,600 23 137,400 Wholesale Trade 105,900 81 24,900 19 130,800 2,155,000 75 730,200 25 2,885,200 Electricity Information Media and Telecommunications Manufacturing Mining Other Services Professional, Scientific and Technical Services All Industries total Source: Centre of Policy Studies, Monash University (2013) Labour Force Projections The top five highest employing industries in regional Victoria were Health Care and Social Assistance (13 per cent), Retail Trade (12 per cent), Manufacturing (10 per cent), Construction (9 per cent) and Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing (9 per cent). Four out of the top five highest employing industries in regional Victoria also rank in the top five in terms of government subsidised enrolments in Victoria. The top five regional industries in terms of enrolments include Construction (22 per cent), Health Care and Social Assistance (19 per cent), Transport, Postal and Warehousing (13 per cent), Manufacturing (9 per cent) and Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing (6 per cent). It should be noted that many of the occupations that fall under Retail Trade, the second largest employing industry in Victoria, do not require VET level training. Consequently, the industry reports a lower proportion of VET enrolments. Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 29 Figure 1.6: Proportion of employment by industry and region, 2012-13, Victoria Proportion of employment by industry in Metro Melbourne, Regional Victoria and Victoria, 2012-13 (%) Metro Regional VIC 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Source: Centre of Policy Studies, Monash University (2013) Labour Force Projections Figure 1.7: Proportion of government subsidised enrolments by industry and region, 2013, Victoria Proportion of enrolments by industry in Metro Melbourne, Regional Victoria and Victoria, 2013 (%) Vic Regional Metro 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Alignment to employers and students: Employer satisfaction and student outcomes Training alignment in this section focuses on the degree of satisfaction with training provision and employment outcomes by both employers and students. Drawing on results from the NCVER Student Outcomes Survey, 2012 and Survey of Employers' Use and Views of the VET System, 201324 insights can be gained on the performance of the VET system in meeting the needs of students and employers in Victoria. ‘Employer satisfaction’ is derived from NCVER’s Survey of Employers' Use and Views of the VET System. The “Employer satisfaction with VET system” variable is a summary variable that takes into account formal VET qualifications, apprenticeships, traineeships and nationally recognised courses at the national level. ‘Students reporting job related benefit from VET’ has been derived from the NCVER Student Outcomes Survey, 2012. It uses the ‘job-related benefits of undertaking training’ variable from the survey which includes benefits like getting a job, pay rise, promotion or setting up a business. This data is also at the national level. 30 Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 24 Employers across all industries were satisfied overall with the VET system, with 73 per cent of employers stating that they were satisfied. The highest level of satisfaction with the VET system was experienced by employers from the Education and Training industry, followed by the Transport, Postal and Warehousing industry and the Financial and Insurance Services industry. Lower levels of satisfaction were experienced within Information, Media and Telecommunications and Manufacturing. Students who report a job related benefit following completion of their training qualification were able to get a job, change jobs, get promoted, expand or set-up their business. Overall, 76 per cent of students reported job-related benefits from their training. The highest percentage of students reporting a job-related benefit from completing their qualification was within the Wholesale Trade and Construction industries. Lower jobrelated benefits were reported by students within Arts and Recreation and Information, Media and Telecommunications. Table 1.1: Employer and student satisfaction with vocational training provision, 2012-13, Victoria % Employers satisfied with VET system Industry % Students reporting jobrelated benefits from VET Accommodation and Food Services 70 77 Administrative and Support Services 73 67 Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 73 77 Arts and Recreation Services 77 62 Construction 74 88 Education and Training 88 73 Electricity 74 73 Financial and Insurance Services 81 70 Health Care and Social Assistance 80 81 Information Media and Telecommunications 50 64 Manufacturing 65 78 Mining 74 78 Other Services 67 81 Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 71 74 Public Administration and Safety 68 78 Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services 73 76 Retail Trade 74 75 Transport, Postal and Warehousing 82 75 Wholesale Trade 77 90 Cross Industry N/A 70 Foundation Skills, Pathways and LOTE N/A 65 All industries 73 76 Source: NCVER (2013) Survey of Employers' Use and Views of the VET System; NCVER (2012) Student Outcomes Survey Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 31 Notes on the Data Data and Time Periods The main source of vocational training statistics in this publication is the training activity database referred to as Skills Victoria Training System (SVTS). All government subsidised providers are required to submit their data using SVTS at least once a month in accordance with the Australian Vocational Education and Training Management Information Statistical Standard (AVETMISS). For TAFE Institutes, there is an additional regulatory requirement that they also submit their fee for service data. Data in this report are based on a snapshot in time and based on data as reported to Higher Education and Skills Group (HESG) in the Department by training providers. Figures may differ to those in previous publications as DEECD is continuously updating classification to improve data quality and consistency across years. Data shown in the tables are rounded to the nearest 100 when the figures are greater than 1,000; to the nearest 50 when they are between 100 and 1,000; and to the nearest 10 when they are less than 100. The percentage changes between 2008 and 2013, and 2012 and 2013 are calculated based on unrounded data. The 2013 data were extracted from SVTS as at 25 Jan 2014. Figures may be revised slightly prior to submission to National Centre for Vocational Education and Research (NCVER). Reporting Scope This report include government subsidised activities in all sectors at all qualification levels, and domestic fee for service activities in the domestic TAFE sector at Australian Qualification Framework (Certificate I and above). Fee for service activities below Certificate I in the domestic TAFE sector are not included, such as short courses. Fee for service activities that took place in the private training provider and Learn Local sectors are also outside the scope. 32 Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 Accommodation and Food Services Training Snapshot Accommodation and Food Services covers short-term accommodation for visitors, along with food and beverage services such as the preparation and serving of meals and drinks for consumption by customers. The total number of government subsidised enrolments related to the Accommodation and Food Services industry was 30,300 in 2013. This was a decrease of 32 per cent on 2012. This decline may have been driven in part by the current economic climate, and also likely reflects a high supply of training relative to industry need in 2012. Enrolments in training related to occupations within the Accommodation and Food Services industry have tended to outstrip the number of additional employees required by the industry. There were 9,100 TAFE fee for service enrolments related to the Accommodation and Food Services industry in 2013. Reported Accommodation and Food Services course completions stood at 9,700. Table 2.1: Vocational training enrolments and completions, year on year changes, 2008–2013 Accommodation and Food Services 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Government subsidised enrolments 25,200 29,900 29,000 35,500 44,600 30,300 Year-on-year % change 19% -3% 22% 26% -32% Year-on-year % change (all industries) 3% 18% 31% 14% -11% TAFE fee for service enrolments 10,700 12,900 10,400 10,700 12,400 9,100 Year-on-year % change 21% -19% 3% 15% -26% Year-on-year % change (all industries) 15% 3% 0% 18% -9% Completions 9,300 9,500 9,800 11,800 15,000 9,700 Year-on-year % change 2% 3% 20% 27% -35% Year-on-year % change (all industries) 5% 19% 33% 29% -15% Note: all enrolment data is government subsidised, unless otherwise stated. Completions data includes all reported government subsidised and fee for service activity by all providers (TAFE and non-TAFE). Private training providers accounted for a majority of training delivery, 70 per cent of the total in 2013. This compares with an average of 59 per cent across all industries. TAFE Institutes accounted for 24 per cent of Accommodation and Food Services training delivery, while Learn Local provision in this industry was 6 per cent. A relatively high proportion of Accommodation and Food Services industry training was aligned to traineeships, accounting for 19 per cent of training delivery in 2013 compared with an all-industry average of 13 per cent. Eighty-one per cent of enrolments aligned to the Accommodation and Food Services industry were at Certificate III or above, less than the all-industry average of 90 per cent. The largest enrolments in 2013 were for qualifications leading to Cooks and the most popular course was Certificate IV in Hospitality. Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 33 Figure 2.1: Share of industry enrolments compared against all industries, 2013 Accommodation and Food Services Industry Learn Local Training Dashboard Provider type 6% TAFE 10% Apprentice Trainee 81% 25% 10% 90% 81% Band C 31% Band D 20% Band E 3% 22% Certificate III + 10% Band A Subsidy band Other 87% Certificate I-II Qualification level Other 13% Certificate III + Band B 59% Trainee 19% Private 37% Other 19% TAFE Apprentice 90% Band A Subsidy band 4% Other Certificate I-II Qualification level Provider type 70% Trainee Trainee Learn Local Private 24% Apprentice Apprentice All- industry comparison 19% 90% Band B Band C 34% Band D Band E 30% 8% 9% Table 2.2: Top occupations ranked by 2013 enrolments, Table 2.3: Top courses ranked by 2013 enrolments, government subsidised, 2012–2013 government subsidised, 2012–2013 Occupation 2012 2013 Course Cooks 5,200 7,600 Certificate IV in Hospitality Cafe and Restaurant Managers 9,200 6,500 Kitchenhands 9,000 5,800 18,500 5,700 1,300 2,900 Waiters Chefs Certificate III in Hospitality Certificate III in Hospitality (Commercial Cookery) Certificate II in Hospitality (Kitchen Operations) Certificate IV in Hospitality (Commercial Cookery) 2012 2013 5,900 5,800 18,500 5,700 4,500 5,100 2,300 4,400 1,300 2,700 Industry Overview Accommodation and Food Services contributed an estimated $7.7 billion to the Victorian economy in 2012-13, around 2 per cent of Victoria's total gross value added. Over the five years to June 2013, the industry has grown at an average annual rate of 7 per cent.25 There were an estimated 21,800 businesses operating in Victoria's Accommodation and Food Services industry, 4 per cent of all businesses across the State.26 Approximately 181,200 people were employed in the industry, equating to approximately 6 per cent of all Victorian employment. Accommodation and Food Services has seen employment growth of approximately 19 per cent over the last five years, equating to around 29,000 employees. The outlook over the next five years for employment to continue to grow, increasing by an estimated 7 per cent (or 12,800 jobs).27 The Food and Beverage Services sub-sector accounts for the largest proportion of industry employment, 87 per cent of the total. 25 Australian Bureau of Statistics (2013) Australian National Accounts: State Accounts, CT NO: 5220.0 26 Australian Bureau of Statistics (2012) Counts of Australian Businesses, including Entries and Exits, Jun 2008 to Jun 2012, CT NO: 8165.0 27 Centre of Policy Studies, Monash University (2013) Labour Force Projections 34 Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 Figure 2.2: Share of employment by industry sub-sector, 2012–13 Food and Beverage Services 13% Accommodation 87% Source: Centre of Policy Studies, Monash University (2013) Labour Force Projections Although hit by the economic downturn, Victoria’s Accommodation and Food Services industry has rebounded, with growth in the Hotels and Resorts segment fuelled by an influx of Asian, particularly Chinese tourists and improved domestic demand. The Restaurant and Fast Food segments are also experiencing favourable conditions, as a result of the rise in disposable incomes and greater urbanisation of a growing population. Business models are increasingly catering for a health conscious nation and the integration of technology linking wait staff with kitchen orders has raised efficiency and turnaround in the sector. A very high proportion of staff have been with their employer in the industry for less than a year, and this, compounded with a much younger than average workforce age profile, means staff retention and the development of career pathways is not only important in reducing turnover for employers, but also retaining skills within their business and improving customer perceptions and experience. Available career opportunities and pathways need to be promoted to employees within Hospitality and Tourism as a way of building retention in industries with traditionally high levels of employee churn. The ‘Training Alignment’ section of this profile explores how the training market is tracking against industry skills needs. Training Alignment Summary 2013 Training Alignment an estimated + 12,800 Industry needs Specialised and/or skill shortage occupations employees per year required over the five years to 2017-18 There were no specialised occupations aligned to this industry The top three employing regions accounted for Skills needs in regions Employer and student needs 55% of industry employment 30,300 vocational training enrolments in 2013 36% of enrolments in courses aligned to occupations experiencing skills shortage These three regions accounted for 62% of industry enrolments in 2013 70% 77% of industry employers were satisfied with the VET system of students reported job-related benefits from VET Alignment to industry needs This section explores the alignment between vocational training and industry needs by comparing projected annual employment needs in Accommodation and Food Services with 2013 enrolment levels for qualifications aligned to the industry. Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 35 Table 2.4 highlights the top ten employing occupations28 in the Accommodation and Food Services industry. Forecasts presented in the table estimate average annual employment needs for this industry. Average annual employment needs include employment growth or decline and replacement demand29 by occupation for the next five years. Over the next five years, average annual employment needs for Accommodation and Food Services are expected to be approximately 12,800 per year. This compares with vocational training enrolments of 30,300 in 2013. In 2013, the top three largest occupations by employment size included Waiters, Sales Assistants (General) and Kitchenhands. Over the next five years, projected average annual employment needs for these occupations within the Accommodation and Food Services industry are: 2,410 per annum for Waiters; 1,200 per annum for Sales Assistants (General); and 1,070 per annum for Kitchenhands. Table 2.4: Top ten occupations by employment, 2012–2013, and associated enrolments, 2013 Occupation 2012-13 employment Employment growth to 2017-18 5-yr average annual employment need VET enrolments 2013 Waiters 28,970 2,860 2,410 5,700 Sales Assistants (General) 18,920 1,050 1,200 * Kitchenhands 18,430 630 1,070 5,800 Chefs 16,930 3,100 1,390 2,900 Bar Attendants and Baristas 13,070 1,240 1,280 - Café and Restaurant Managers 11,820 1,500 660 6,500 Fast Food Cooks 10,650 1,240 1,300 - Retail Managers 7,070 540 280 * Hotel and Motel Managers 5,290 -190 180 - Cooks 5,260 310 360 7,600 Source: Centre of Policy Studies, Monash University (2013) Labour Force Projections, SVTS Note: Occupations aligned to VET qualifications are highlighted in blue. *VET qualifications not directly aligned to Accommodation and Food Services and therefore outside the scope of this chapter. When comparing projected annual employment needs with 2013 enrolment levels, a sense of alignment between government subsidised training delivery and industry requirements may be established. In 2013, training delivery aligned to the occupations Café and Restaurant Manager, Cook, Chef, Kitchenhand and Waiter appears to be well-placed to meet, and in some cases surpass, expected average annual employment needs. Alignment to specialised and/or in shortage occupations and skill needs Vocational training related to occupations identified as specialised or experiencing skill shortages and that enhances the productive capacity of the Victorian economy is a high priority for government investment. This section highlights training alignment to areas of strategic skill need for the Accommodation and Food Services industry, including an analysis of enrolments in areas of identified skill shortages or aligned to specialised occupations30. The traditional skills required of the Accommodation and Food Services workforce remain paramount: customer service, a positive attitude, a desire to help and good communication skills alongside strong management and leadership skills. Many employees entering the workforce are young with no postschool qualifications, therefore entry level training (Certificate I and II) remains important. However, as customers increasingly move online to book and review industry services, ICT skills are increasingly required for businesses ‘online operations, with the need to develop and maintain a proactive online presence. This presents both challenges and opportunities for training providers to work with employers to enhance skills in these areas. Given the importance of China, and the wider Asian region, to Australia's tourism industry, there is commercial benefit for businesses to be developing their 'Asia readiness'. The inclusion of language 28 Occupations are listed at the ABS 4-digit ANZSCO Unit Group level. Forecast employment growth or decline is the expected change in the number of jobs within an occupation year to year. The period presented in the table from 2012-13 to 2017-18. Replacement demand is the number of existing workers that are forecast to leave the occupation through retirement, moving into a different industry or occupation or moving interstate etc. that require replacing to meet existing employment needs. 30 DEECD’s 2013 listing of Victorian skills shortages is at the 6-digit ABS ANZSCO occupation level. 29 36 Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 skills and cultural awareness in training delivery is therefore likely to be of greater significance in the future. Improving people management skills is important in an industry with traditionally high levels of employee churn, particularly across smaller businesses. A recent national industry survey identified significant labour and skills issues impacting the industry quoting that ‘nearly half of all tourism businesses surveyed indicated they are experiencing a recruitment, retention and/or skills deficiency’. Overall, it is estimated that there is currently a vacancy rate of 9 per cent across tourism-related industries, compared to an economy-wide average of 2 per cent.31 Identified skills shortages in Accommodation and Food Services for 2013 include: Café and Restaurant Managers Bakers Pastrycooks Chefs Cooks Skills shortage occupations also relevant to Accommodation and Food Services: Retail Managers In 2013, there were a total of 10,900 enrolments related to specialised occupations or those experiencing skills shortages within the Accommodation and Food Services industry, 36 per cent of total training in the industry. This is slightly below the proportion of enrolments aligned to specialised or in shortage occupations across all industry training (41 per cent). Table 2.5: Enrolments related to specialised and/or in shortage occupations, government subsidised, 2008–2013 Specialised / in shortage enrolments Year-on-year % change Year-on-year % change (all industries) 2008 2,900 - 2009 6,000 109% 12% 2010 5,800 -4% 13% 2011 8,000 37% 18% 2012 11,800 48% 19% 2013 10,900 -8% 14% The following case study gives an example of DEECD’s work in bringing together training providers and employers in areas of skills needs. 31 Deloitte Access Economics on behalf of the Department of Resources, Energy and Tourism (2013) Skills Survey Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 37 Case Study Victorian Tourism Industry Council Ministerial Roundtable The Victorian Tourism Industry Council (VTIC) is Victoria’s peak leadership organisation working to support Victoria’s tourism industry. Issues DEECD Market Facilitation Outcomes Tourism is a significant contributor to the Victorian economy, especially in regional areas, and the following have been identified as key barriers faced by the industry: DEECD provides information and builds channels between employers and training providers to advise clients of the training market on how to engage with the market more effectively and efficiently. The Roundtable was attended by the Minister for Higher Education and Skills, VTIC and VECCI executives and included wide representation of industry stakeholders. Participants discussed the Tourism Victoria Workforce Development Plan, which falls within the portfolio of the Minister for Tourism and Major Events. The Minister for Higher Education and Skills wrote to the Minister for Tourism and Major Events suggesting cross-departmental sharing of skills intelligence and data to inform the plan. In response, VTIC advised that they have raised the idea of a crossdepartment taskforce with VTIC. In order to improve language teaching skills, the Minister for Higher Education and Skills also encouraged the tourism industry to consider the opportunities for an international exchange program. Low retention rates amongst tourism industry graduates The Ministerial Roundtable provided a platform to raise awareness for many of these issues directly with the Minister for Higher Education and Skills and also provided an opportunity to discuss plans in place to address these issues from across the industry. Alignment to skills needs in regions This section considers training alignment with skills needs in regions by comparing the proportion of industry training within each region with the proportion of regional employment in Accommodation and Food Services. Accommodation and Food Services establishments are scattered throughout the metropolitan Melbourne area. Large suburban shopping centres (e.g. Chadstone, Southland and Doncaster) and strip shopping areas (e.g. Glenhuntly Road) are home to a large number of cafes, restaurants and take away outlets. There are also business establishment concentrations in tourist areas such as the Dandenong Ranges, the Yarra Valley and the Mornington Peninsula.32 Seventy-three per cent of employment in the Accommodation and Food Services industry is located within metropolitan Melbourne, with 27 per cent in regional Victoria. The highest concentration of industry employment in Victoria is within the Inner Metropolitan (26 per cent), Southern Metropolitan (15 per cent), and Eastern Metropolitan (14 per cent) regions33. 32 DSDBI (2012) Business location in Victoria: A decade of change 33 Regional distribution data are estimates only based on ABS (2011) Census of Population and Housing. 38 Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 Figure 2.3: Regional share of employment and enrolments Employment (% of total) Enrolments (% of total) 42% 26% 15% 15% 14% 12% 10% 6%5% 2% 1% 5% 2% 3% 2% 1%1% Geelong Great Gippsland Central Wimmera Hume & South Highlands Southern Surrounds Coast Mallee 8% 6% 6% 5%5% 2%2% 3% 2% Loddon Mallee North Loddon Mallee South Eastern Northern Southern Western Metro Metro Metro Metro Inner Metro Source: ABS (2011) Census of Population and Housing, SVTS Regional Victoria accounted for 19 per cent of government subsidised vocational training in Accommodation and Food Services in 2013. Compared to its share of industry employment (27 per cent), regional Victoria therefore appears to be relatively under-represented in terms of vocational training in Accommodation and Food Services. In terms of specific regions, Inner Metropolitan accounts for the highest proportion of industry training, 42 per cent of the total. The region also accounts for a majority of industry employment (26 per cent). It appears to be relatively over-represented in terms of training delivery, offsetting Eastern Metropolitan, which accounts for 14 per cent of industry employment but 6 per cent of training delivery. This is reflective of Inner Metropolitan’s role in servicing the wider metropolitan Melbourne area. The share of employment and related vocational training in Victoria’s rural regions appears to be broadly aligned. There may be some scope to increase delivery in Gippsland, however, which accounts for 5 per cent of industry employment but just 2 per cent of training delivery. Table 2.6: Enrolments by region, ranked by 2013 enrolments, government subsidised, 2008–2013 Region 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Inner Metropolitan 5,400 5,800 9,000 13,200 15,400 12,500 Southern Metropolitan 2,700 2,700 3,900 4,600 6,500 4,600 Northern Metropolitan 1,500 3,800 3,000 3,800 6,100 3,500 Western Metropolitan 1,500 1,600 1,400 1,400 900 1,900 Eastern Metropolitan 2,600 4,000 2,800 2,800 2,400 1,700 Geelong & Surrounds 1,400 1,300 1,900 3,200 7,600 1,600 Hume 2,400 1,900 1,300 1,500 1,600 1,400 Gippsland 1,900 1,900 2,000 1,100 950 700 Central Highlands 550 600 600 600 500 650 Loddon Mallee North 1,300 3,600 1,200 1,100 850 600 Loddon Mallee South 1,200 1,100 800 1,000 600 550 750 600 600 650 300 250 Great South Coast Wimmera Southern Mallee 200 200 100 70 30 150 Note that regional totals will be greater than total industry enrolments due to some enrolments falling within more than one region of training delivery. Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 39 Figure 2.4: Regional share of enrolments, 2008 and 2013 Alignment to employers and students: Employer satisfaction and student outcomes Training alignment in this section focuses on the degree of satisfaction with training provision and employment outcomes by both employers and students. Drawing on results from the NCVER Student Outcomes Survey 2012 and Survey of Employers' Use and Views of the VET System 201334 insights can be gained on the performance of the VET system in meeting the needs of the Accommodation and Food Services industry. Businesses in the Accommodation and Food Services industry have highlighted the importance of balancing work placements with classroom learning in order to develop work ready graduates. This is a priority in a sector which is characterised by casual employees and an itinerant workforce. Accommodation and Food Services industry employers were satisfied overall with the VET system, with 70 per cent of employers stating that they were satisfied with the training received by their employees. This was, however, somewhat lower than the all industry average (73 per cent). DEECD will continue to monitor the training market in 2014, to ensure that training provision is aligned to industry needs. Of students undertaking vocational training in the Accommodation and Food Services industry, 77 per cent reported job-related benefits following completion of their training, higher than the all-industry average of 72 per cent. Reported benefits included getting a job, changing jobs, being promoted, expanding or setting up their own business. Figure 2.5: Student and employer outcomes of vocational training Accommodation and Food Services Satisfied Employers satisfied with VET system Students reporting jobrelated benefit from VET Not-Satisfied 70% Benefit 77% All- industry comparison Satisfied 30% No Benefit 23% Employers satisfied with VET system Students reporting jobrelated benefit from VET Not-Satisfied 73% Benefit 72% 27% No Benefit 28% Source: NCVER Survey of Employers' Use and Views of the VET System 2013 and NCVER Student Outcomes Survey 2012 Certain population groups face barriers to participation in education, training and the workforce. This section considers the proportion of industry training undertaken by different learner groups, and to what extent they are represented in Accommodation and Food Services training when compared with all-industry averages. 34 Note: Employer satisfaction and student outcomes data for this industry is indicative only. Due to small sample sizes at the State level, data for individual industries is presented at national level. Employer satisfaction and student outcomes data for “All industries” is at Victorian level. 40 Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 In 2013, female students were relatively well-represented in vocational training aligned to the Accommodation and Food Services industry, while students aged 25 and over were relatively underrepresented when compared with the average across all industries. Female students comprised 57 per cent of enrolments in 2013, significantly more than the average across all industries of 44 per cent. This reflects the above-average proportion of women employed in the Accommodation and Food Services workforce, comprising 55 per cent of industry employment. Students aged 25 years and older, on the other hand, made up 34 per cent of enrolments for this industry, significantly less than all-industry average of 56 per cent. This age profile is in line with that of the Accommodation and Food Services industry, which is much younger than the average for the total Victorian workforce. Figure 2.6: Proportion of enrolments by student group, government subsidised, 2013 Accommodation and Food Services Indigenous 1% 1% 25% 27% CALD Disability All industries 5% 6% Female Unemployed Age 25+ 44% 21% 57% 25% 34% Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 56% 41 Administrative and Support Services Administrative and Support Services businesses are engaged in performing routine support activities for the day-to-day operations of other businesses or organisations. Training Snapshot The total number of government subsidised enrolments related to the Administrative and Support Services industry was 15,600 in 2013, a decrease of 28 cent on 2012. This decline may have been driven in part by the current economic climate, and also likely reflects a high supply of training relative to industry need in 2012. Enrolments in training related to occupations within the Administrative and Support Services industry have tended to outstrip the number of additional employees required by the industry. There were 4,300 TAFE fee for service enrolments in 2013. Reported Administrative and Support Services course completions were 6,300 in 2013. Table 3.1: Vocational training enrolments and completions, year on year changes, 2008–2013 Administrative and Support Services 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Government subsidised enrolments 15,100 11,400 14,400 20,600 21,600 15,600 Year-on-year % change -24% 26% 43% 5% -28% Year-on-year % change (all industries) 3% 18% 31% 14% -11% TAFE fee for service enrolments 1,400 4,500 3,100 3,300 3,900 4,300 Year-on-year % change 228% -32% 7% 19% 10% Year-on-year % change (all industries) 15% 3% 0% 18% -9% Completions 3,500 3,600 4,900 6,900 9,200 6,300 Year-on-year % change 4% 35% 41% 33% -31% Year-on-year % change (all industries) 5% 19% 33% 29% -15% Note: all enrolment data is government subsidised, unless otherwise stated. Completions data includes all reported government subsidised and fee for service activity by all providers (TAFE and non-TAFE). Private training providers accounted for a majority of training delivery, 72 per cent of the total in 2013. This compares with an average of 59 per cent across all industries. TAFE Institutes accounted for 25 per cent of Administrative and Support Services training delivery, while Learn Local provision in this industry was 3 per cent. A relatively high proportion of Administrative and Support Services industry training was aligned to traineeships, accounting for 26 per cent of training delivery in 2013 compared with an all-industry average of 13 per cent. The proportion of apprentice enrolments, 2 per cent of 2013 industry training delivery, was lower than the all-industry average of 10 per cent. Figure 3.1: Share of industry enrolments compared against all industries, 2013 Administrative and Support Services industry Learn Local Training Dashboard Provider type 3% 2% Trainee Apprentice Band A 46% Band C Band D 32% Band E 13% Certificate III + 10% 90% Band A Subsidy band Other 87% Certificate I-II Qualification level Other 90% 13% Certificate III + 88% Band B 10% Trainee Trainee Private 59% Apprentice 74% Certificate I-II TAFE 37% Other 26% 12% 4% Other 98% Trainee Qualification level Provider type 72% Apprentice Apprentice All industries Learn Local Private 25% Subsidy band 2% 8% 42 TAFE 19% Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 Band B 34% Band C Band D 30% Band E 8% 9% Table 3.2: Top occupations ranked by 2013 enrolments, government subsidised, 2012–2013 Occupation 2012 Tourism and Travel Advisers Call or Contact Centre Workers Commercial Cleaners Gardeners Conference and Event Organisers 2,600 11,800 2,500 1,300 1,500 Table 3.3: Top courses ranked by 2013 enrolments, government subsidised, 2012–2013 2013 6,000 5,300 1,500 1,100 850 Course Certificate IV in Customer Contact Certificate III in Tourism Certificate III in Customer Contact Certificate IV in Tourism Certificate III in Cleaning Operations 2012 5,200 400 4,800 600 90 2013 3,300 2,600 1,500 1,200 850 Industry Overview The Administrative and Support Services industry contributed an estimated $9.5 billion to the Victorian economy in 2012-13, around 3 per cent of Victoria's total gross value added. Over the five years to June 2013, the industry has grown by an average annual rate of 1 per cent, one of the lowest growth rates across all industries.35 There are an estimated 20,100 businesses operating in Victoria's Administrative and Support Services industry, 4 per cent of all businesses across the state. 36 Approximately 96,000 people are employed in the industry, equating to approximately 3 per cent of all employment in Victoria. The industry has seen employment growth of 9 per cent over the last five years, equating to around 8,200 employees. The outlook over the next five years is for employment to continue to grow, increasing by approximately 11 per cent (or 10,300 jobs), one of the fastest levels of growth across the Victorian economy. 37 The Administrative Services sub-sector accounts for the largest proportion of industry employment, 56 per cent of the total. The remaining 44 per cent of the workforce is employed within the Building Cleaning, Pest Control and Other Support Services sub-sector. Figure 3.2: Share of employment by industry sub-sector, 2012–13 Administrative Services 44% 56% Building, Cleaning, Pest Control and Other Support Services Source: Centre of Policy Studies, Monash University (2013) Labour Force Projections 35 As businesses in the Administrative and Support Services industry mainly provide services to other businesses and government, the performance of this industry is closely linked to the economic cycle. Growth in the Administrative and Support Services industry was impacted by the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), with output and employment both contracting. However, the industry has since started to recover and is forecast to grow in line with the overall economy. Looking ahead, the industry is expected to be exposed to changes in other sections of the Victorian economy, through cost reduction measures or technological advances substituting outputs from the Administrative and Support Services industry. Examples include the banking industry moving outsourced call centre services offshore; digital document storage superseding the need to outsource Australian Bureau of Statistics (2013) Australian National Accounts: State Accounts, CT NO: 5220.0 36 Australian Bureau of Statistics (2012) Counts of Australian Businesses, including Entries and Exits, Jun 2008 to Jun 2012, CT NO: 8165.0 37 Centre of Policy Studies, Monash University (2013) Labour Force Projections Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 43 paper-based document storage; and online airline ticketing systems impacting travel agency sales 38. Further growth in import competition, and competing business models and services channels, may continue to overtake services delivered by the industry. Potential drivers of growth for the industry include technological advances, for example in relation to cloud computing and movements towards value added services, assisting businesses with a full service offering. There are benefits for training providers in working closely with businesses, particularly small and medium-sized businesses, to help them understand their workforce development needs and translate these into customised training. The ‘Training Alignment’ section of this industry profile explores how the training market is tracking against skills needs. Training Alignment Summary 2013 Training Alignment An estimated + 4,900 Industry needs Specialised and/or skill shortage occupations employees per year required over the five years to 2017-18 15,600 vocational training enrolments in 2013 There were no specialised occupations aligned to this industry There were no skills shortage occupations aligned to this industry The top three employing regions accounted for These three regions accounted for Skills needs in regions Employer and student needs 65% of industry employment 75% of industry enrolments in 2013 73% 67% of industry employers were satisfied with the VET system of students reported job-related benefits from VET Alignment to industry needs This section explores the alignment between vocational training and industry needs by comparing projected annual employment needs in Administrative and Support Services with 2013 enrolments levels for qualifications aligned to the industry. Table 3.4 highlights the top ten employing occupations39 in the Administrative and Support Services industry. Forecasts presented in the table estimate average annual employment needs for this industry. The average annual employment needs include employment growth or decline and replacement demand40 by occupation for the next five years. Over the next five years within the Administrative and Support Services industry, average annual employment needs are expected to be approximately 4,900 employees per year. This compares with VET enrolments of 15,600 in 2013. The top three largest occupations by employment size include Commercial Cleaners, Gardeners and Human Resource Professionals. Projected average annual employment needs within the Administrative and Support Services industry for these occupations over the next five years are: 700 per annum for Commercial Cleaners; 390 per annum for Gardeners; and 260 per annum for Human Resource Professionals. Table 3.4: Top ten occupations by employment, 2012–2013, and associated enrolments, 2013 38 Department of State Development, Business and Innovation (2013) Administrative and Support Services, Services Sector Industry Analysis 39 Occupations are listed at the ABS 4-digit ANZSCO Unit Group level 40 Forecast employment growth or decline is the expected change in the number of jobs within an occupation year to year. The period presented in the table from 2012-13 to 2017-18. Replacement demand is the number of existing workers that are forecast to leave the occupation through retirement, moving into a different industry or occupation or moving interstate etc. that require replacing to meet existing employment needs. 44 Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 Occupation Commercial Cleaners 2012-13 employment Employment growth to 2017-18 5-yr average annual employment needs VET enrolments 2013 16,570 1,100 700 10,500 Gardeners 6,840 570 390 1,100 Human Resource Professionals 5,980 610 260 * Tourism and Travel Advisers 4,300 -590 80 6,000 Domestic Cleaners Call or Contact Centre Employees 3,250 190 130 - 1,970 150 100 5,300 Packers 1,940 170 120 - Garden and Nursery Labourers 1,910 140 190 450 General Clerks 1,810 130 80 50 Other Cleaners 1,680 130 70 80 Source: Centre of Policy Studies, Monash University (2013) Labour Force Projections, SVTS Note: Occupations aligned to VET qualifications are highlighted in blue. *VET qualifications not directly aligned to Administrative and Support Services and therefore outside the scope of this chapter. When comparing projected annual employment needs with 2013 enrolment levels, some broad messages can be established regarding the alignment between government subsidised training relating to Administrative and Support Services and industry requirements. 2013 training delivery aligned to Commercial Cleaners, Gardeners, Tourism and Travel Advisers, Call or Contact Centre Employees and Garden and Nursery Labourers appears to be well-placed to meet, and in some cases surpass, expected average annual employment needs. Administrative and Support Services training aligned to General Clerks is below projected annual employment needs in this industry. However, training aligned to this occupation generally falls within Cross-Industry. Cross-industry training aligned to General Clerks saw 6,800 enrolments aligned to in 2013, meaning skills needs are likely being met. Alignment to specialised and/or in shortage occupations and skill needs Vocational training related to occupations identified as specialised or experiencing skill shortages and that enhances the productive capacity of the Victorian economy is a high priority for government investment. This section highlights training alignment to areas of strategic skill need for the Administrative and Support Services industry, including an analysis of enrolments in areas of identified skill shortages or aligned to specialised occupations41. To address emerging challenges and realise opportunities, the Administrative and Support Services industry will continue to have a strong focus on productivity, encouraging innovation and better utilisation of skills. In support of these goals, there is a need to enhance elementary levels of literacy, numeracy and ICT proficiency across the industry, and to address the growing requirement for higher order skills that assist individuals to be more flexible, adaptable, innovative and productive. Strong communication and relationship building skills are also important in this client focused industry 42, while a particular importance is attached to enhancing management, employability and leadership skills. There were no identified skills shortage or specialised occupations aligned to this industry. Alignment to skills needs in regions This section considers training alignment with skills needs in regions by comparing the proportion of industry training within each region with the proportion of regional employment in Administrative and Support Services. Eighty per cent of business establishments in the industry were located in metropolitan Melbourne. In regional Victoria, which accounts for 20 per cent of the total business establishments, these tend to be located in the major regional centres of Ballarat, Bendigo, Shepparton, Wodonga, Moe and Bairnsdale.43 41 DEECD’s 2013 listing of Victorian skills shortages is at the 6-digit ABS ANZSCO occupation level. 42 Innovation and Business Skills Australia (2013) Business Services Industry Environment Scan 43 DSDBI (2012) Business location in Victoria: A decade of change Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 45 Eighty-three per cent of employment in the Administrative and Support Services industry is located within metropolitan Melbourne, with 17 per cent located in regional Victoria. The highest concentration of employment within the Administrative and Support Services industry in Victoria was within the Inner Metropolitan (35 per cent), Eastern Metropolitan (17 per cent), and Southern Metropolitan (13 per cent) regions.44 Figure 3.3: Regional employment and enrolments Administrative and Support Services Employment and Enrolments by Region Employment (% of total) 59% Enrolments (% of total) 35% 17% 13% 9% 4%5% 1%1% 3%2% 2%1% 1%0% 3%3% Geelong Great Gippsland Central Wimmera Hume & South Highlands Southern Surrounds Coast Mallee 2%2% 2%1% Loddon Mallee North Loddon Mallee South 9%9% 6% 9% 2% Eastern Northern Southern Western Metro Metro Metro Metro Inner Metro Source: ABS (2011) Census of Population and Housing, SVTS Metropolitan Melbourne accounted for 85 per cent of Administrative and Support Services training delivery in 2013. Compared to its share of industry employment (83 per cent), overall training delivery in Melbourne therefore appears to be relatively well-aligned with Melbourne’s share of Administrative and Support Services employment. In terms of specific metropolitan regions, Inner Metropolitan had the largest number of enrolments in 2013, with 9,200 or 59 per cent of the total. This is significantly higher than its share of employment (35 per cent), while Eastern Metropolitan, Southern Metropolitan and Western Metropolitan all appear to be relatively under-represented in terms of industry training delivery when compared with employment. Training delivery in regional Victoria appears to be more closely aligned to Administrative and Support Services industry employment patterns overall. Table 3.5: Enrolments by region, ranked by 2013 enrolments, government subsidised, 2008–2013 Region 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Inner Metropolitan 6,400 3,500 5,500 11,100 12,200 9,200 Eastern Metropolitan 1,000 1,400 2,400 2,100 2,200 1,400 Northern Metropolitan 750 1,000 850 950 1,200 1,400 Southern Metropolitan 1,100 1,300 1,300 1,800 2,600 1,000 Geelong and Surrounds 750 700 850 1,100 900 800 Hume 450 850 400 400 550 550 Loddon Mallee North 150 150 300 400 350 350 Western Metropolitan 2,800 700 750 750 500 300 Gippsland 600 600 650 650 400 250 Loddon Mallee South 350 350 350 400 200 100 Great South Coast 250 250 300 300 250 100 Central Highlands 150 200 200 150 150 90 Wimmera Southern Mallee 20 10 10 10 10 10 Note that regional totals will be greater than total industry enrolments due to some enrolments falling within more than one region of training delivery. 44 Regional distribution data are estimates only based on ABS (2011) Census of Population and Housing 46 Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 Figure 3.4: Regional share of enrolments, 2008 and 2013 Alignment to employers and students: Employer satisfaction and student outcomes Training alignment in this section focuses on the degree of satisfaction with training provision and employment outcomes by both employers and students. Drawing on results from the NCVER Student Outcomes Survey 2012 and Survey of Employers' Use and Views of the VET System 201345 insights can be gained on the performance of the VET system in meeting the needs of the Administrative and Support Services industry. Administrative and Support Services industry employers were satisfied overall with the VET system, with 73 per cent of employers stating that they were satisfied, in line with the all industry average. Within the Administrative and Support Services industry 67 per cent of students reported job-related benefits from their training. This is, however, lower than the all industry average (72 per cent). DEECD will continue to monitor the training market in 2014, to ensure that training provision is aligned to student needs. Figure 3.5: Student and employer outcomes of vocational training Administrative and Support Services Satisfied Employers satisfied with VET system Students reporting jobrelated benefit from VET 67% Satisfied Not-Satisfied 73% Benefit All- industry comparison 27% No Benefit 33% Employers satisfied with VET system Students reporting jobrelated benefit from VET Not-Satisfied 73% Benefit 72% 27% No Benefit 28% Source: NCVER Survey of Employers' Use and Views of the VET System 2013 & NCVER Student Outcomes Survey 2012 Certain population groups face barriers to participation in education, training and the workforce. This section considers the proportion of industry training undertaken by different learner groups, and to what extent they are represented in Administrative and Support Services training when compared with all-industry averages. In 2013, female students were well-represented in training aligned to the Administrative and Support Services industry when compared with the all-industry average. Female enrolments accounted for 55 per cent of enrolments in 2013, significantly above the average of 44 per cent across all industries. 45 Note: Employer satisfaction and student outcomes data for this industry is indicative only. Due to small sample sizes at the State level, data for individual industries is presented at national level. Employer satisfaction and student outcomes data for “All industries” is at Victorian level. Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 47 Figure 3.6: Proportion of enrolments by student group, government subsidised, 2013 48 Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing is engaged Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing in growing crops, raising animals, growing and harvesting timber, fish and other animals. It covers both production and support services to production. Training Snapshot The total number of government subsidised enrolments related to Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing was 8,300 in 2013, a decrease of 15 per cent on 2012. This decline may have been driven in part by the current economic climate, and also likely reflects a high supply of training relative to industry need in 2012. Enrolments in training related to occupations within the Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing industry have tended to outstrip the number of additional employees required by the industry. There were 3,200 TAFE fee for service enrolments in 2013. The total number of reported completions related to the Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing industry in 2013 was 2,200. Table 4.1: Vocational training enrolments and completions, year on year changes, 2008-2013 Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Government subsidised enrolments 7,800 7,600 7,900 9,500 9,800 8,300 - -3% 4% 20% 3% -15% 2,700 3% 3,300 18% 3,100 31% 3,500 14% 3,500 -11% 3,200 Year-on-year % change - 21% -7% 13% 1% -8% Year-on-year % change (all industries) - 15% 3% 0% 18% -9% 1,000 1,300 1,500 3,700 4,300 2,200 - 30% 14% 145% 17% -50% Year-on-year % change Year-on-year % change (all industries) TAFE fee for service enrolments Completions Year-on-year % change Year-on-year % change (all industries) 5% 19% 33% 29% -15% Note: all enrolment data is government subsidised, unless otherwise stated. Completions data includes all reported government subsidised and fee for service activity by all providers (TAFE and non-TAFE). TAFE Institutes accounted for half of all training delivery in this industry in 2013. This compares with an average of 37 per cent TAFE provision across all industries. Private training providers accounted for 48 per cent of Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing training delivery, while Learn Local provision in this industry was relatively low at 2 per cent (half the all-industry average of 4 per cent of delivery). Traineeships comprised a relatively high proportion of Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing training, accounting for 30 per cent of enrolments in 2013 compared with an all industry average of 13 per cent. At 1 per cent of training delivery, the proportion of apprentice enrolments was relatively low. Figure 4.1: Share of industry enrolments compared against all industries, 2013 Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing industry Learn Local Training Dashboard Provider type TAFE 1% Trainee Band A Subsidy band 7% Apprentice Band C 85% Band D Band E Subsidy band Certificate III + 10% 90% Band A 0% 8% Other 87% Certificate I-II Qualification level Other 90% 13% Certificate III + 84% Band B 10% Trainee Trainee Private 59% Apprentice 70% 16% TAFE 37% Other 30% Certificate I-II 4% Other 99% Trainee Qualification level Provider type 48% Apprentice Apprentice Private 50% 2% All industries Learn Local 19% Band B 34% Band C Band D 30% Band E 8% 9% 0% Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 49 50 Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 Table 4.2: Top occupations ranked by 2013 enrolments, government subsidised, 2012–2013 Occupation 2012 Mixed Crop and Livestock Farm Employees Mixed Crop and Livestock Farmers Crop Farm Workers Livestock Farm Workers Gardeners 3,600 2,600 900 750 550 Table 4.3: Top courses ranked by 2013 enrolments, government subsidised, 2012–2013 2013 2,400 1,800 1,300 800 550 Course Certificate III in Agriculture Certificate III in Production Horticulture Certificate IV in Agriculture Certificate II in Agriculture Certificate II in Shearing 2012 2,900 900 1,300 600 250 2013 1,700 1,100 1,100 450 250 Industry Overview Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing contributed an estimated $8.2 billion to the Victorian economy in 2012-13, around 3 per cent of Victoria's total gross value added. Over the five years to June 2013, this represents an average annual growth of 4 per cent46. There are an estimated 46,100 businesses operating in the Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing industry, 8 per cent of all businesses across the State47. Approximately 79,000 people are employed in Victoria's Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing industry, equating to 3 per cent of all employment in Victoria. The industry has seen employment decline by approximately -1 per cent over the last five years, equating to around 400 fewer employees. The outlook over the next five years is for employment growth to return to the industry, with anticipated growth of 4 per cent (or 3,100 jobs)48. The Agriculture sub-sector accounts for the largest proportion of industry employment, 91 per cent of the total. This is followed by the Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing Support Services sub-sector, with 7 per cent of employment in the industry. Figure 4.2: Share of employment by industry sub-sector, 2012–13 3% Agriculture 7% Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing Support 90% Forestry and Logging Source: Centre of Policy Studies, Monash University (2013) Labour Force Projections 46 Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing is impacted significantly by climate change and sustainable management issues related to the use of natural resources such as water, soil and Australia’s oceans. The industry is a major exporter and is therefore also affected by fluctuations in the Australian dollar. However, significant opportunities are arising from the growth of the Asian middle classes, while domestic demand continues to be driven by the supermarket giant’s product-specific policies. The National Food Plan, launched by the former Commonwealth Government in May 2013, challenges the industry to build its skill base and increase the proportion of the workforce with post-school qualifications by 2025 to maximise opportunities presented by shifting patterns of global demand. The plan states that ‘Australia must build on its world-leading research capacity, skilled and innovative workforce and reliable infrastructure and biosecurity system. Investment is needed to ensure our food businesses have the skills and capital to adopt new technologies, adapt quickly to changing market and environmental conditions and capitalise on opportunities’. Australian Bureau of Statistics (2013) Australian National Accounts: State Accounts, CT NO: 5220.0 Australian Bureau of Statistics (2012) Counts of Australian Businesses, including Entries and Exits, Jun 2008 to Jun 2012, CT NO: 8165.0 48 Centre of Policy Studies, Monash University (2013) Labour Force Projections Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 51 47 Part of this challenge will be to strengthen management, leadership and entrepreneurial skills across the industry. In particular, global demand, climate change mitigation, an ageing workforce and the ongoing rationalisation of farms into larger corporate structures to improve economies of scale, have exacerbated the need for professionally-trained farm managers. To build industry competitiveness, training will need to continue to keep pace with the new and emerging skills requirements. Industry skill needs are becoming increasingly technical, innovative and developmental in nature, focusing on topical issues such as biodiversity, microbiological sampling and testing, genetics and selective breeding and biosecurity. The ‘Training Alignment’ section of this industry profile explores how the training market is tracking against industry skills needs. Training Alignment Summary 2013 Training Alignment an estimated Industry needs Specialised and/or skill shortage occupations Skills needs in regions Employer and student needs + 2,900 employees per year required over the five years to 2017-18 1% 8,300 vocational training enrolments in 2013 7% of enrolments in courses aligned to specialised occupations of enrolments in courses aligned to occupations experiencing skills shortage The top three employing regions accounted for These three regions accounted for 47% of industry employment 50% of industry enrolments in 2013 73% 77% of industry employers were satisfied with the VET system of students reported job-related benefits from VET Alignment to industry needs This section explores the alignment between vocational training and industry needs by comparing projected annual employment needs in the Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing industry with 2013 enrolments levels for occupations aligned to the industry. Table 4.4 highlights the top ten employing occupations49 in the Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing industry. Forecasts presented in the table estimate average annual employment needs for this industry. Average annual employment needs include employment growth or decline and replacement demand 50 by occupation for the next five years. Over the next five years within the Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing industry, average annual employment needs are expected to be approximately 2,900 additional employees per year. This compared with 2013 government subsidised training delivery of 8,300 enrolments. The top three largest occupations by employment size include Livestock Farmers, Crop Farmers and Mixed Crop and Livestock Farmers. Projected average annual employment needs within Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing for these occupations over the next five years are: a decline of 210 per annum for Livestock Farmers; an additional 890 per annum for Crop Farmers and 310 employees per annum for Mixed Crop and Livestock Farmers. 49 Occupations are listed at the ABS 4-digit ANZSCO Unit Group level 50 Forecast employment growth or decline is the expected change in the number of jobs within an occupation year to year. The period presented in the table from 2012-13 to 2017-18. Replacement demand is the number of existing workers that are forecast to leave the occupation through retirement, moving into a different industry or occupation or moving interstate etc. that require replacing to meet existing employment needs. 52 Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 Table 4.4: Top ten occupations by employment, 2012–2013, and associated enrolments, 2013 2012-13 Employment Occupation Employment growth to 2017–18 5-yr average annual employment need 2013 VET enrolments Livestock Farmers 28,480 -3,600 -210 40 Crop Farmers 11,610 3,260 890 - Mixed Crop and Livestock Farmers 10,770 -1,360 310 1,800 Livestock Farm Workers 5,480 80 210 800 Crop Farm Workers Agriculture, Forestry and Horticultural Plant Operators 5,370 160 210 1,300 1,890 340 170 90 Packers 1,120 100 70 - Gardeners 970 90 60 550 Bookkeepers 920 50 40 * Truck Drivers 900 100 40 Source: Centre of Policy Studies, Monash University (2013) Labour Force Projections, SVTS Note: Occupations aligned to VET qualifications are highlighted in blue. *VET qualifications not directly aligned to Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing and therefore outside the scope of this chapter. * When comparing projected annual employment needs with 2013 enrolment levels, some broad messages can be established regarding the alignment between government subsidised enrolments in Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing and industry requirements. In 2013, Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing industry enrolments aligned to Livestock Farmers, Mixed Crop and Livestock Farmers, Livestock Farm Workers, Crop Farm Employees and Gardeners appear to be well placed to meet projected average annual employment needs for these occupations. Enrolments aligned to Agriculture, Forestry and Horticultural Plant Operators, on the other hand, may not be sufficient to meet projected average annual employment needs if enrolments continue at 2013 levels. This occupation should be therefore be monitored for emerging skill shortages. Alignment to specialised and/or in shortage occupations and skill needs Vocational training related to occupations identified as specialised or experiencing skill shortages and that enhances the productive capacity of the Victorian economy is a high priority for government investment. This section highlights training alignment to areas of strategic skill need for the Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing industry, including an analysis of enrolments in areas of identified skill shortages or aligned to specialised occupations51. Agricultural Consultants and Agricultural Scientists are specialised occupations and have been identified as experiencing skills shortages in Victoria. There is a long standing national shortage of Agronomists leading to recruitment from overseas. Although primarily a higher education occupation, there is growing demand for graduates to undertake the Diploma or Advanced Diploma of Agriculture to gain hands-on experience and for degree offerings to become far more integrated into ‘real work’.52 The industry affirms that skills and training priorities are focused on developing business management, leadership and entrepreneurial capabilities; attracting new employees; adopting higher level skills and knowledge; diffusion of innovative practice, research and new technologies; and retention and skills utilisation of existing employees. For training providers, products and services will need to continue to evolve to reflect industry’s changing skill requirements. As well as the focus on business management skills highlighted above, this includes supply chain management (including exporting); compliance; natural resource management and biosecurity; animal handling and data management associated with National Livestock Identification; and the technical and scientific skills needed for sampling and testing, biotechnology, genetics, breeding, pest and disease response and innovation in food production. 51 DEECD’s 2013 listing of Victorian skills shortages is at the 6-digit ABS ANZSCO occupation level. 52 AgriFood Skills Australia (2013) E-Scan Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 53 Identified skills shortages in Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing for 2013 include: Agricultural Consultant Agricultural Scientist Arborist Skill shortages occupations also relevant to Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing: Retail Managers; Fitter (incl. Fitter and Turner); Metal Machinist; Motor Mechanic (incl. Diesel Mechanic); Truck Drivers Enrolments aligned to occupations considered to be specialised or skills shortage stood at 650 in 2013, in line with 2012 enrolments. This compares with overall enrolment decline of 15 per cent across Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing training. Enrolments aligned to specialised or skills shortage occupations comprised 8 per cent of Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing training delivery in 2013. Table 4.5: Enrolments related to specialised and/or in shortage occupations, government subsidised, 2008–2013 2008 350 - Specialised / in shortage enrolments Year-on-year % change Year-on-year % change (all industries) 2009 450 32% 12% 2010 350 -22% 13% 2011 550 54% 18% 2012 650 16% 19% 2013 650 1% 14% The following case study gives an example of DEECD’s work in bringing together training providers and employers in areas of skills needs. Case Study Farm Business Management Skill Set DEECD has participated in a coordination group across government to develop and implement projects as part of the Intergovernmental Agreement on National Drought Program Reform. Issues DEECD Market Facilitation Outcomes The Intergovernmental Agreement aimed to facilitate achievement of the following outcomes: o primary producers have an improved capacity to manage business risks o farm families are supported in times of hardship. One of the intended outputs of this agreement was to develop a nationally recognised approach to farm business training. Market Facilitation provided expert advice and input into the work of Department of Environment and Primary Industries and Industry Skills Council Agrifood Skills Australia regarding the development and implementation of a national farm business management skill set. The design process was completed in December 2013 when the skill set was published on www.training.gov.au. The skill set can be delivered by registered training providers in Victoria which have the relevant qualifications on scope. Individuals working in the Agriculture industry have an opportunity to build or top up their existing business skills and knowledge. Achieving, the skill set can act as a pathway to further study or a full qualification. The skill set is made up of the following four units: 1. 2. 3. 4. AHCBUS403A - Support and review business structure and relationships AHCBUS506A - Develop and review a business plan AHCBUS507A - Monitor and review business performance BSBRSK501B - Manage risk Market Facilitation will continue to work with industry and government counterparts to promote and monitor the skill set and remove barriers to individuals seeking training in this industry. Alignment to skills needs in regions This section considers training alignment with skills needs in regions by comparing the proportion of industry training within each region with the proportion of employment in Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing. 54 Regional Victoria had 84 per cent of Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing businesses in 2010–2011. Most areas of regional Victoria have experienced declining business numbers since 2000–01. This includes Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 the Sunraysia district, townships along the Murray River such as Moama, Kyabram and Rochester, the western district surrounding Casterton and Hamilton, the north west boundary of Melbourne, and Gippsland townships close to Melbourne such as Warrigal. In metropolitan Melbourne, the greatest densities of agricultural businesses were in Werribee, the Yarra Valley, the south-east food bowl around Clyde and Cranbourne and the Mornington Peninsula.53 Eighty-four per cent of industry employment is located in regional Victoria, with 16 per cent within the metropolitan Melbourne regions. Unlike most industries, Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing employment is spread out across regional Victoria, with the highest concentrations in Hume (18 per cent), Gippsland (16 per cent) and Loddon Mallee North (14 per cent).54 Figure 4.3: Regional share of employment and enrolments Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing Employment and Enrolments by Region Employment (% of total) Enrolments (% of total) 21% 19% 18% 17% 16% 14% 13% 10% 9% 7% 7% 7% 6% 4% 4% 3% 2% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Geelong & Surrounds Great South Coast Gippsland Central Wimmera Highlands Southern Mallee Hume Loddon Mallee North Loddon Mallee South Eastern Metro 2% Northern Southern Western Metro Metro Metro 1% 2% Inner Metro Source: ABS (2011) Census of Population and Housing, SVTS Regional Victoria accounted for 84 per cent of government subsidised vocational training in Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing in 2013, in line with its share of industry employment and indicating broad alignment between training delivery and the regional labour market. In terms of specific regions, however, training delivery appears less well aligned to industry needs – for example, Gippsland and Southern Metropolitan which both account for a relatively high proportion of industry employment when compared to their share of industry training. Loddon Mallee North and Geelong & Surrounds, on the other hand, both account for a relatively high proportion of industry training delivery when compared with their share of Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing employment. 53 DSDBI (2012) Business location in Victoria: A decade of change 54 Regional distribution data are estimates only based on ABS (2011) Census of Population and Housing Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 55 Table 4.6: Enrolments by region, ranked by 2013 enrolments, government subsidised, 2008–2013 Region 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Hume 1,300 2,000 1,800 1,900 2,100 1,700 300 450 550 750 1,300 1,600 Great South Coast 1,400 1,300 1,600 1,500 1,400 1,400 Gippsland Loddon Mallee North 1,800 1,300 1,300 1,000 950 850 Geelong and Surrounds 150 100 400 2,000 1,800 700 Western Metropolitan 450 80 30 50 70 500 Northern Metropolitan 700 550 600 600 400 400 Wimmera Southern Mallee 350 450 450 350 350 300 Eastern Metropolitan 150 150 150 200 200 200 Loddon Mallee South 400 350 250 300 700 200 Central Highlands 550 650 600 550 350 200 Inner Metropolitan - 20 <10 90 100 150 Southern Metropolitan 150 150 80 50 20 50 Note that regional totals will be greater than total industry enrolments due to some enrolments falling within more than one region of training delivery. Figure 4.4: Regional share of enrolments, 2008 and 2013 Alignment to employer and student need Training alignment in this section focuses on the degree of satisfaction with training provision and employment outcomes by both employers and students. Drawing on results from the NCVER Student Outcomes Survey 2012 and Survey of Employers' Use and Views of the VET System 2013 55 insights can be gained on the performance of the VET system in meeting the needs of the Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing industry. Importantly for a geographically dispersed sector, flexible training delivery models remain a key enabler for successful training outcomes. Training delivery is significant across regional Victoria and businesses are flagging a need for innovative forms of delivery which combine online learning with intensive practical training, to provide a model which can overcome potential access difficulties in rural areas. Employers from the Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing industry were satisfied overall with the VET system with 73 per cent of employers stating that they were satisfied, in line with the all industry average. 55 Note: Employer satisfaction and student outcomes data for this industry is indicative only. Due to small sample sizes at the State level, data for individual industries is presented at national level. Employer satisfaction and student outcomes data for “All industries” is at Victorian level. 56 Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 Students who report a job-related benefit following completion of their training qualification were able to get a job, change jobs, get promoted, expand or set-up their business. Within the Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing industry 77 per cent of students reported job-related benefits from their training. This is higher than the all industry average (72 per cent). Figure 4.5: Student and employer outcomes of vocational training Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing Satisfied Employers satisfied with VET system Students reporting jobrelated benefit from VET 77% Satisfied Not-Satisfied 73% Benefit All- industry comparison 27% Employers satisfied with VET system 23% Students reporting jobrelated benefit from VET No Benefit Not-Satisfied 73% Benefit 72% 27% No Benefit 28% Source: NCVER Survey of Employers' Use and Views of the VET System 2013 & NCVER Student Outcomes Survey 2012 Certain population groups face barriers to participation in education, training and the workforce. This section considers the proportion of industry training undertaken by different learner groups, and to what extent they are represented in Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing training when compared with all-industry averages. Women, Culturally and Linguistically Diverse (CALD) students and those who are unemployed appear to be relatively under-represented in Agricultural, Forestry and Fishing training when compared with the all-industry average. Female students accounted for 26 per cent of industry training delivery in 2013 compared with an average of 44 per cent across all industries. This is reflective of the demographic profile of the Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing workforce where women accounted for just 29 per cent of employment in 2012-13. CALD students comprised 11 per cent of enrolments for this industry, compared with an all-industry average of 27 per cent. Unemployed students made up 7 per cent of enrolments for this industry, compared with an all-industry average of 25 per cent. Students aged 25 and older, on the other hand appeared relatively well-represented in agricultural training when compared to all industry averages, accounting for 64 per cent of enrolments compared with an average of 56 per cent in 2013. This is again reflectively of the industry’s workforce, which has an age profile which is older than average. Figure 4.6: Proportion of enrolments by student group, government subsidised, 2013 Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 57 Arts and Recreation Services Arts and Recreation Services involves the preservation and exhibition of objects and sites of historical, cultural or educational interest; the production of artistic works or participation in live performances or events; and the provision of services that enable patrons to participate in sporting or recreational activities. Training Snapshot The total number of government subsidised enrolments related to Arts and Recreation Services was 15,900 in 2013. This is a decrease of 40 per cent on 2012 enrolments. This decline may have been driven in part by the current economic climate, and also likely reflects a high supply of training relative to industry need in 2012. Enrolments in training related to occupations within the Arts and Recreation Services industry have tended to outstrip the number of additional employees required by the industry. There were 3,600 TAFE fee for service enrolments in 2013. There were 8,200 reported completions in 2013 in qualifications aligned to the Arts and Recreation industry. Table 5.1: Vocational training enrolments and completions, year on year changes, 2008–2013 Arts and Recreation Services Government subsidised enrolments 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 13,500 14,700 19,000 27,500 26,700 15,900 - 9% 29% 45% -3% -40% 4,000 3% 4,800 18% 4,800 31% 5,000 14% 4,900 -11% 3,600 - 20% 1% 3% -1% -26% Year-on-year % change Year-on-year % change (all industries) TAFE fee for service enrolments Year-on-year % change Year-on-year % change (all industries) Completions - 15% 3% 0% 18% -9% 3,800 3,800 5,200 10,900 13,200 8,200 - 1% 37% 107% 22% -38% Year-on-year % change Year-on-year % change (all industries) 5% 19% 33% 29% -15% Note: all enrolment data is government subsidised, unless otherwise stated. Completions data includes all reported government subsidised and fee for service activity by all providers (TAFE and non-TAFE). TAFE Institutes accounted for half of Arts and Recreation Services training delivery in 2013 compared with an average of 37 per cent TAFE provision across all industries. Private training providers accounted for 46 per cent of 2013 training delivery, while Learn Local provision was 4 per cent. Apprentice enrolments in this industry comprised 4 per cent of 2013 training delivery compared with an all-industry average of 10 per cent. Traineeships accounted for 6 per cent of enrolments aligned to the Arts and Recreation Services industry, below the average of 13 per cent across all industries. Figure 5.1: Share of industry enrolments compared against all industries, 2013 Arts and Recreation Services industry Learn Local Training Dashboard Provider type 4% Apprentice 4% Certificate I-II Apprentice 27% Band B 21% 59% 10% Band C 13% 87% Certificate I-II Qualification level Band D 35% Band E Certificate III + 10% 90% Band A Subsidy band Other 13% Certificate III + Other 90% Trainee Trainee Private 37% Other 86% Band A TAFE Apprentice 94% 14% 4% Other 96% 6% Qualification level Provider type 46% Trainee Trainee All industries Learn Local Private 50% Apprentice Subsidy band 4% 58 TAFE 19% Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 Band B 34% Band C Band D 30% Band E 8% 9% Table 5.2: Top occupations ranked by 2013 enrolments, government subsidised, 2012–2013 Occupation 2012 Fitness Instructors Music Professionals Visual Arts and Crafts Professionals Outdoor Adventure Guides Sports Coaches, Instructors, Officials 11,200 2,000 1,700 300 3,600 Table 5.3: Top courses ranked by 2013 enrolments, government subsidised, 2012–2013 2013 4,300 1,500 1,500 1,400 1,300 Course Certificate III in Fitness Certificate IV in Fitness Certificate II in Outdoor Recreation Certificate III in Community Activity Programs Diploma of Music 2012 5,600 4,700 150 50 950 2013 2,300 1,800 1,100 850 600 Industry Overview Arts and Recreation Services contributed an estimated $3.2 billion to the Victorian economy in 2012-13, around 1 per cent of Victoria's total gross value added. Over the five years to June 2013, the industry’s average annual growth in gross value added was 3 per cent.56 There are an estimated 7,500 businesses operating in the industry, 1 per cent of all businesses across the State.57 Approximately 58,100 people are employed in Victoria's Arts and Recreation Services industry, equating to 2 per cent of all Victorian employment. The industry has seen employment growth of approximately 13 per cent over the last five years, equating to around 6,600 employees. The outlook over the next five years is for employment to continue to grow, increasing by approximately 8 per cent (or 4,500 jobs).58 The Sports and Recreation Activities sub-sector accounts for the largest proportion of industry employment, 53 per cent of the total. This is followed by the Creative and Performing Arts Activities sub-sector, with 21 per cent of employment in the industry. Figure 5.2: Share of employment by industry sub-sector, 2012–13 Sports and Recreation Activities 12% Creative and Performing Arts Activities 13% 54% Heritage Activities 21% Gambling Activities Source: Centre of Policy Studies, Monash University (2013) Labour Force Projections 56 The Arts and Recreation Services industry is heavily influenced by the availability of disposable household income, tourism and leisure time. Certain parts of the industry (such as parks and gardens, museums, art galleries and performing arts venues) are reliant on government grants for their continued viability. While benefits generated by cultural, arts and some recreation segments of the industry extend well beyond strictly economic gains and losses, efficient use of public and private assets (e.g. government funding and business sponsorship) is an important goal. More efficient management means lowering running costs, reducing funding requirements and extending their reach within the community. Growth in the health and fitness sector is being driven by enhanced levels of health consciousness and increased awareness around weight and obesity. The recent growth in demand for more personalised Australian Bureau of Statistics (2013) Australian National Accounts: State Accounts, CT NO: 5220.0 57 Australian Bureau of Statistics (2012) Counts of Australian Businesses, including Entries and Exits, Jun 2008 to Jun 2012, CT NO: 8165.0 58 Centre of Policy Studies, Monash University (2013) Labour Force Projections Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 59 services (e.g. personal trainers, group training) is expected to continue, as is demand for new and innovative approaches to exercise. Sports clubs are also benefiting from the nation’s health drive, but competition for sponsorship and corporate event hosting remain a challenge for the professional clubs. The industry is investing in technology and research and development, but much of this expenditure is occurring within the Gambling Activities sub-sector. Given competition within the sector for attracting visitors, attendants and customers as well as funding and sponsorship, innovative adoption and use of technology and research and development skills across the industry will become more important in the future to maintain viability. Development of marketing and social media skills to promote and manage industry services will be also be important to improve productivity. The industry has a higher than average reliance on self-employment, and there are opportunities to ensure skills in business management and development are maximised. For those businesses with employees, staff retention and identifying career development pathways are of particular importance. The ‘Training Alignment’ section of this industry profile explores how the training market is tracking against skills needs. Training Alignment Summary 2013 Training Alignment an estimated Industry needs Specialised and/or skill shortage occupations Skill needs in regions + 4,200 employees per year required over the five years to 2017-18 2% 6% of enrolments in courses aligned to specialised occupations of enrolments in courses aligned to occupations experiencing skills shortage The top three employing regions accounted for These three regions accounted for 68% of industry employment Employer and student needs 15,900 vocational training enrolments in 2013 44% of industry enrolments in 2013 77% 62% of industry employers were satisfied with the VET system of students reported job-related benefits from VET Alignment to industry needs This section explores the alignment between vocational training and industry needs by comparing projected annual employment needs in the Arts and Recreation Services industry with 2013 enrolments levels for qualifications aligned with the industry. Table 5.4 highlights the top ten employing occupations59 in the Arts and Recreation Services industry. Forecasts presented in the table estimate average annual employment needs for this industry. The average annual employment needs include employment growth or decline and replacement demand 60 by occupation for the next five years. Over the next five years, average annual employment needs for Arts and Recreation Services are expected to be approximately 4,200 per year. This compares with 2013 enrolments of 15,900. The top three largest occupations by employment size include Sports Coaches, Sportspersons and Fitness Instructors. Projected average annual employment needs over the next five years within the Arts and Recreation Services industry for these occupations are: 460 per annum for Sports Coaches; 280 per annum for Sportspersons; and 240 per annum for Fitness Instructors. 59 Occupations are listed at the ABS 4-digit ANZSCO Unit Group level 60 Forecast employment growth or decline is the expected change in the number of jobs within an occupation year to year. The period presented in the table from 2012-13 to 2017-18.Replacement demand is the number of existing workers that are forecast to leave the occupation through retirement, moving into a different industry or occupation or moving interstate etc. that require replacing to meet existing employment needs. 60 Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 Table 5.4: Top ten occupations by employment, 2012–2013, and associated enrolments, 2013 Occupation Sports Coaches , Instructors and Officials 2012-13 Employment Employment growth to 2017-18 5-yr average annual employment needs VET enrolments 2013 4,870 730 460 1,300 Sportspersons 2,610 300 280 150 Fitness Instructors Amusement, Fitness and Sports Centre Managers 2,350 430 240 4,300 2,260 - 190 - Gaming Workers 2,150 -150 190 - Music Professionals 2,050 -140 190 1,500 Visual Arts and Crafts Professionals 1,720 -120 130 1,500 Other Specialist Managers 1,470 230 80 20 Actors, Dancers, Other Entertainers 1,390 130 180 400 60 200 Other Miscellaneous Labourers 1,290 140 Source: Centre of Policy Studies, Monash University (2013) Labour Force Projections, SVTS Note: Occupations aligned to VET qualifications are highlighted in blue. When comparing projected annual employment needs with 2013 enrolment levels, some broad messages can be established regarding alignment between government subsidised enrolments in training related to Arts and Recreation Services and industry requirements. 2013 training delivery aligned to Sports Coaches, Fitness Instructors, Music Professionals, Visual Arts and Crafts Professionals, Actors Dancers and Other Entertainers and Other Miscellaneous Labourers appears to be well-placed to meet, and in some cases surpass, expected average annual employment needs. Enrolments aligned to Sportspersons and Other Specialist Managers may not be sufficient to meet projected average annual employment needs if enrolments continue at 2013 levels. The skill needs of both these occupations are potentially being met via other routes, however, such as higher education. We will continue to monitor enrolments aligned to Amusement, Fitness and Sports Centre Managers or Gaming Employees. Alignment to specialised and/or in shortage occupations and skill needs Vocational training related to occupations identified as specialised or experiencing skill shortages and that enhances the productive capacity of the Victorian economy is a high priority for government investment. This section highlights training alignment to areas of strategic skill need for the Arts and Recreation Services industry, including an analysis of enrolments in areas of identified skill shortages or aligned to specialised occupations61. Certain elements of the Arts and Recreation Services industry require specialised and niche skills. For example across the Arts Galleries and Museums sub-sector, the ability to create and change educational and special displays, develop interpretations, exhibitions and themes are important to attract repeat visitors. The quality of research and expertise is also important, as are collection, research and curatorial skills. Looking forwards, there are opportunities for training providers to work with businesses in the industry in identifying and delivering appropriate training solutions to some of the challenges currently faced by the sector: for example, management and organisational skills; business management and business development, especially for sole traders; and optimising technology and research and development. No Arts and Recreation occupations have been identified as experiencing skills shortages in 2013. Skills shortage occupations aligned to other industries with relevance to Arts and Recreation Services include: 61 Community Workers DEECD’s 2013 listing of Victorian skills shortages is at the 6-digit ABS ANZSCO occupation level. Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 61 In 2013, there were a total of 1,300 enrolments related to specialised or in shortage occupations within the Arts and Recreation Services industry, 8 per cent of total training in the industry. Enrolments aligned to specialised occupations or those experiencing skill shortages increased by 94 per cent between 2012 and 2013. Table 5.5: Enrolments related to specialised and / or in shortage occupations, government subsidised, 2008- 2013 2008 650 - Specialised / in shortage enrolments Year-on-year % change Year-on-year % change (all industries) 2009 700 12% 12% 2010 600 -17% 13% 2011 750 32% 18% 2012 700 -12% 19% 2013 1,300 94% 14% Alignment to skills needs in regions This section considers training alignment with skills needs in regions by comparing the proportion of industry training within each region with the proportion of regional employment in Arts and Recreation Services. In metropolitan Melbourne, Arts and Recreation Services businesses are based throughout the city. The largest concentrations by suburb are the CBD, Cranbourne, Richmond, South Melbourne, Mornington, Kensington, South Yarra and Werribee, Frankston and Port Melbourne. In regional Victoria, Arts and Recreation Services establishments are concentrated in larger population centres and towns including Bendigo, Ballarat, South Geelong.62 Eighty-three per cent of industry employment is located within metropolitan Melbourne, with 17 per cent located in regional Victoria. The highest concentration of employment within the Arts and Recreation Services industry is within the Inner Metropolitan (43 per cent), Southern Metropolitan (14 per cent), and Eastern Metropolitan (12 per cent) regions.63 Figure 5.3: Regional employment and enrolments Employment (% of total) Enrolments (% of total) 43% 23% 12%11% 12% 9% 4% 1% Geelong & Surrounds 2% Great South Coast 3% 4% 2% 2% 1% 0% Gippsland Central Wimmera Highlands Southern Mallee 3% Hume 1% 1% Loddon Mallee North 2% 14% 10% 7% 13% 10% 7% 4% Loddon Mallee South Eastern Metro Northern Southern Western Metro Metro Metro Inner Metro Source: ABS (2011) Census of Population and Housing, SVTS Metropolitan Melbourne accounted for 67 per cent of government subsidised vocational training in Arts and Recreation Services in 2013. Compared to its share of industry employment (83 per cent), Melbourne therefore appears to be relatively under-represented in terms of industry training delivery. Within the Melbourne regions, Inner Metropolitan had the largest number of enrolments with 3,600 in 2013 (23 per cent of training delivery). This remained significantly below Inner Metropolitan’s proportion of industry employment, however, whereas the proportion of enrolments in the Western Metropolitan region surpassed its share of employment. In regional Victoria, a majority of enrolments are concentrated in Hume and Geelong, a trend not reflected in regional employment data. 62 DSDBI (2012) Business location in Victoria: A decade of change 63 Regional distribution data are estimates only based on ABS (2011) Census of Population and Housing 62 Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 Table 5.6: Enrolments by region, ranked by 2013 enrolments, government subsidised, 2008–2013 Region 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Inner Metropolitan 2,500 2,900 4,700 7,800 8,500 3,600 Western Metropolitan 750 650 1,600 2,900 2,900 2,000 Hume 1,100 1,100 950 1,500 2,400 1,800 Eastern Metropolitan 2,100 2,000 2,100 4,000 2,900 1,800 Southern Metropolitan 1,000 1,000 1,300 2,500 2,300 1,600 Northern Metropolitan 1,700 1,900 1,600 1,900 1,400 1,500 Geelong and Surrounds 400 650 1,100 1,600 2,100 1,400 Gippsland 850 850 1,500 1,200 850 600 Loddon Mallee South 950 900 1,200 1,400 1,700 600 Great South Coast 800 1,000 900 750 550 350 Central Highlands 500 450 450 600 450 300 Loddon Mallee North 150 200 350 500 250 150 Wimmera Southern Mallee 150 150 80 60 80 20 Note that regional totals will be greater than total industry enrolments due to some enrolments falling within more than one region of training delivery. Figure 5.4: Regional share of enrolments, 2008 and 2013 Alignment to employers and students: Employer satisfaction and student outcomes Training alignment in this section focuses on the degree of satisfaction with training provision and employment outcomes by both employers and students. Drawing on results from the NCVER Student Outcomes Survey 2012 and Survey of Employers' Use and Views of the VET System 201364 insights can be gained on the performance of the VET system in meeting the needs of the Arts and Recreation industry. In 2013, Arts and Recreation Services industry employers were satisfied overall with the VET system, with 77 per cent of employers stating that they were satisfied. This is higher than the all-industry average of 73 per cent. Within the Arts and Recreation Services industry, 62 per cent of students reported job-related benefits following completion of their training. Reported job-related benefits included being able to get a job, change jobs, gain promotion, expand or set-up their business. This is significantly lower than the all industry average (72 per cent), a result which may reflect a previous high supply of training related to 64 Note: Employer satisfaction and student outcomes data for this industry is indicative only. Due to small sample sizes at the State level, data for individual industries is presented at national level. Employer satisfaction and student outcomes data for “All industries” is at Victorian level. Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 63 the Arts and Recreation Services industry. DEECD will continue to monitor the training market in 2014, to ensure that training provision is aligned to employer needs. Figure 5.5: Student and employer outcomes of vocational training Arts and Recreation Services Satisfied Employers satisfied with VET system Students reporting jobrelated benefit from VET All- industry comparison Satisfied Not-Satisfied 77% Benefit 62% 23% No Benefit 38% Employers satisfied with VET system Students reporting jobrelated benefit from VET Not-Satisfied 73% Benefit 72% 27% No Benefit 28% Source: NCVER Survey of Employers' Use and Views of the VET System 2013 and NCVER Student Outcomes Survey 2012 Certain population groups face barriers to participation in education, training and the workforce. This section considers the proportion of industry training undertaken by different learner groups, and to what extent they are represented in Arts and Recreation Services training when compared with all-industry averages. Culturally and Linguistically Diverse (CALD) students comprised 9 per cent of enrolments for this industry, significantly less than the average across all industries (27 per cent). Students aged 25 years and older were also relatively under-represented in terms of Arts and Recreation Services enrolments, accounting for 33 per cent in 2013, significantly less than the allindustry share of 56 per cent. Indigenous students were relatively well represented in Arts and Recreation Services training, comprising 3 per cent of enrolments in 2013 compared with an all industry average of 1 per cent. Figure 5.6: Enrolments by student group, government subsidised, 2013 64 Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 Construction The Construction industry is engaged in the construction of buildings and other structures, alterations, installation, and maintenance and repairs of buildings and other structures. Training Snapshot The total number of government subsidised enrolments related to the Construction industry was 62,700 in 2013, representing an increase of 21 per cent when compared with 2012. There were an additional 14,600 TAFE fee for service enrolments related to the Construction industry in 2013. In 2013, the total number of reported completions for courses related to the Construction industry, was 17,000, a 22 per cent increase compared to 2012. This is in contrast to the 15 per cent average decline across all industries. Table 6.1: Vocational training enrolments and completions, year on year changes, 2008-2013 Construction 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 31,800 32,900 42,400 47,700 51,900 62,700 Year-on-year % change - 3% 29% 13% 9% 21% Year-on-year % change (all industries) - 3% 18% 31% 14% -11% 7,000 7,600 15,500 15,200 16,200 14,600 Year-on-year % change - 8% 105% -2% 7% -10% Year-on-year % change (all industries) - 15% 3% 0% 18% -9% 6,600 7,800 8,800 12,000 14,000 17,000 Year-on-year % change - 18% 13% 36% 17% 22% Year-on-year % change (all industries) - 5% 19% 33% 29% -15% Government subsidised enrolments TAFE fee for service enrolments Completions Note: all enrolment data is government subsidised, unless otherwise stated. Completions data includes all reported government subsidised and fee for service activity by all providers (TAFE and non-TAFE). Construction training delivery is led by TAFE institutes. In 2013, TAFE providers accounted for 69 per cent of training. This compared with an average of 37 per cent TAFE provision across all industries. A relatively high proportion of Construction industry training was aligned to apprenticeships, accounting for 37 per cent of training delivery in 2013 compared with an all industry average of 10 per cent. Traineeships on the other hand, accounted for a relatively low proportion of Construction training, 1 per cent, in 2013. Training Dashboard Figure 6.1: Share of industry enrolments compared against all industries, 2013 Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 65 Table 6.2: Top five courses ranked by 2013 enrolments, government subsidised, 2012–2013 Top 5 Courses Certificate III in Carpentry Certificate III in Civil Construction Plant Operations Certificate III in Electrotechnology Electrician Certificate III in Plumbing Certificate III in Civil Construction Table 6.3: Top five occupations ranked by 2013 enrolments, government subsidised, 2012–2013 2012 2013 Top 5 Occupations 2012 2013 6,500 7,200 Carpenters and Joiners 8,000 8,000 4,900 7,000 Electricians 7,700 7,500 6,400 6,700 Earthmoving Plant Operators 5,100 7,100 5,500 5,200 Plumbers 7,200 7,100 4,500 Architectural, Building and Surveying Technicians 4,700 5,600 1,400 Industry Overview As the fourth largest output producing industry in Victoria, Construction contributed an estimated $20.4 billion to the Victorian economy in 2012-13. This accounted for around 7 per cent of Victoria's total gross value added. Over the five years to June 2013, this represented an average annual growth rate of 4 per cent.65 There were an estimated 89,200 businesses operating in Victoria's Construction industry, 16 per cent of all businesses across the state. Construction has a high concentration of small businesses (60 per cent sole traders; 38 per cent employing 1-19 employees). Only 1 per cent of businesses employed over 200 employees. Thirty-seven per cent of businesses had an annual turnover of $200,000 or more, in line with the average across all industries (36 per cent).66 In 2012-13, approximately 240,200 people were employed in Victoria's Construction industry, equating to around 8 per cent of all employment in Victoria. This makes Construction the fifth largest employing industry in Victoria. The industry has seen employment growth of approximately 7 per cent over the last five years, equating to an influx of around 15,900 employees. The outlook over the next five years for Construction is for employment to continue to grow, increasing by approximately 5 per cent (or 10,900 jobs).67 The Construction Services sub-sector accounted for the largest proportion of industry employment, 71 per cent of the total. This is followed by the Building Construction sub-sector, with 24 per cent of employment in the industry. Figure 6.2: Share of employment by industry sub-sector, 2012–13 Construction Services 5% 24% Building Construction 71% Heavy and Civil Engineering Construction Source: Centre of Policy Studies, Monash University (2013) Labour Force Projections 65 Australian Bureau of Statistics (2013) Australian National Accounts: State Accounts, CT NO: 5220.0 Australian Bureau of Statistics (2012) Counts of Australian Businesses, including Entries and Exits, Jun 2008 to Jun 2012, CT NO: 8165.0 67 Centre of Policy Studies, Monash University (2013) Labour Force Projections 66 Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 66 Key drivers of changing skills and training needs The Construction industry is undergoing significant change that will have an impact on the number of employees and the nature of training required, as outlined below: A number of factors are currently suppressing activity in the housing market, which will also have knock-on effects on construction services such as plastering, tiling and plumbing. However, population growth and recent interest rate reductions are expected to stimulate the housing market again, with particular growth anticipated in multi-unit apartments, which will require a different skill mix. The Global Financial Crisis (GFC) (GFC) stimulus and infrastructure programs are coming to an end and there are fewer large-scale construction projects in the pipeline. This is expected to lead to a corresponding loss of employees interstate as companies follow large-scale infrastructure and mining projects. Changes in regulation and licensing of trades are key drivers of skills and training needs in this industry. Regulatory changes, such as carbon pricing; new energy, waste and water policies; bushfire building regulations; national OH&S regulations etc. are some recent examples. New and emerging technologies with the potential to increase export competition e.g. flat-pack housing, Building Information Modelling, GIS and building-integrated photovoltaics, etc. will also have an impact on the nature of skills needs. Retrofitting of older buildings and restoration of heritage buildings will require new skills to be developed. These drivers have prompted a number of changes to training delivery within the industry and the Training Alignment section of this industry profile explores how the training market is tracking against skills needs. Training Alignment Summary 2013 Training Alignment an estimated Industry needs Specialised and/or skill shortage occupations Skills needs in regions Employer and student needs + 14,000 employees per year required over the five years to 2017-18 62% 62,700 vocational training enrolments in 2013 64% of enrolments in courses aligned to specialised occupations of enrolments in courses aligned to occupations experiencing skills shortage The top three employing regions accounted for These three regions accounted for 50% of industry employment 39% of industry enrolments in 2013 74% 88% of industry employers were satisfied with the VET system of students reported job-related benefits from VET Alignment to industry needs This section explores the alignment between vocational training and industry needs by comparing projected annual employment needs in the Construction industry with 2013 enrolments levels for qualifications aligned with the industry. Table 6.4 highlights the top ten employing occupations68 in the Construction industry. Forecasts presented in the table estimate average annual employment needs for this industry. Average annual employment needs include employment growth or decline and replacement demand69 by occupation for the next five years. 68 69 Occupations are listed at the ABS 4-digit ANZSCO Unit Group level Forecast employment growth or decline is the expected change in the number of jobs within an occupation year to year. The period presented in the table from 2012-13 to 2017-18. Replacement demand is the number of existing workers that are forecast Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 67 Over the next five years, average annual employment needs for Construction are expected to be approximately 14,000 per year. This compares with 62,700 government subsidised enrolments in 2013. The top three largest occupations by employment size include Carpenters and Joiners, Plumbers and Electricians. Projected average annual employment needs over the next five years within the Construction industry for these occupations are: 1,680 per annum for Carpenters and Joiners; 1,220 per annum for Plumbers; and 1,150 per annum for Electricians. Table 6.4: Top ten occupations by employment, 2012–2013, and associated enrolments, 2013 2012-13 Employment 29,420 Employment growth to 2017-18 2,660 5-yr average annual employment needs 1,680 VET enrolments 2013 8,000 Plumbers 21,960 1,010 1,220 7,100 Electricians 19,450 2,020 1,150 7,500 Construction Managers 15,940 1,530 840 - Painting Trades Workers 15,150 560 850 4,400 Concreters 8,670 550 610 1,700 Gardeners 7,770 660 450 1,700 Earthmoving Plant Operators 7,570 -440 180 7,100 Building and Plumbing Labourers 7,480 -230 350 4,500 Plasterers 6,730 -290 510 2,200 Occupation Carpenters and Joiners Source: Centre of Policy Studies, Monash University (2013) Labour Force Projections, SVTS Note: Occupations aligned to VET qualifications are highlighted in blue. *VET qualifications not directly aligned to the Construction industry and therefore outside the scope of this chapter. When comparing projected annual employment needs with 2013 enrolment levels, a sense of alignment between government subsidised training delivery and industry requirements may be established. 2013 training delivery aligned to the top employing occupations highlighted in Table 6.4 - Carpenters and Joiners, Electricians, Earthmoving Plant Operators, Plumbers, Building and Plumbing Labourers, Painting Trades Employees and Plasters appears to be well-placed to meet, and in some cases surpass, expected average annual employment needs. Alignment to specialised and/or in shortage occupations and skill needs Vocational training related to occupations identified as specialised or experiencing skill shortages that enhance the productive capacity of the Victorian economy are a high priority for government investment. This section highlights training alignment to areas of strategic skill needs for the Construction industry, including an analysis of enrolments in areas of identified skill shortages or aligned to specialised occupations.70 Shifting demand in the Construction industry requires the need for a broad range of transferrable skills, providing opportunities for increasing apprenticeships. However, innovation is required to keep costs low (e.g. group training) at a time when some employers are starting to cut back on apprentices. Industry intelligence also suggests increasing demand for more management and leadership skills. to leave the occupation through retirement, moving into a different industry or occupation or moving interstate etc. that require replacing to meet existing employment needs. 70 DEECD’s 2013 listing of Victorian skills shortages is at the 6-digit ABS ANZSCO occupation level. 68 Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 Identified skills shortages in Construction for 2013 include: Construction Project Manager Project Builder Building Associate Building Estimator Construction Estimator Bricklayer Glazier Wall and Floor Tiler Plumber (General) Airconditioning and Mechanical Services Plumber Gasfitter Roof Plumber Airconditioning and Refrigeration Mechanic Cabinetmaker Skills shortage occupations also relevant to Construction: Cabler; Telecommunications Linesworker; Truck Driver; Arborist In 2013, enrolments aligned to specialised and skill shortage occupations accounted for a majority of Construction industry training, 71 per cent, significantly higher than the average across all industries (41 per cent). Enrolment trends over 2008–2013 show steady improvement in training alignment to critical occupations. Enrolments in courses related to specialised and skills shortage occupations have increased by 20 per cent since 2012. Table 6.5: Enrolments related to specialised and/or in shortage occupations, government subsidised, 2008–2013 Specialised / in shortage 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 24,500 25,600 29,700 33,700 37,100 44,700 Year-on-year % change - 4% 16% 13% 10% 20% Year-on-year % change (all industries) - 12% 13% 18% 19% 14% The following case study gives an example of DEECD’s work in bringing together training providers and employers in areas of skills needs. Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 69 Case Study Fire Protection Training Project DEECD’s $6 million initiative, the Industry Transition and Specialist Training Initiative (ITSTI), has introduced a project to develop a model to support the niche and specialised skills required for fire protection equipment training delivery. The impetus for this project, the interventions and the outcomes are outlined as follows: Issues DEECD Market Facilitation Outcomes DEECD provides information and builds channels between employers and providers to advise clients of the training market on how to engage with the market more effectively and efficiently. Work is in progress towards the following outcomes: Fire Protection Equipment Technicians are experiencing shortages in Victoria and employment prospects are expected to remain positive in coming years. Demand for the trade is closely linked to that of the commercial construction industry, as all new buildings require the installation of fire systems. The trade is also assured of ongoing maintenance work. Certificate III in Fire Protection is a key qualification for this licensed trade. However, due to changed operating conditions, the sole provider of Certificate III in Fire Protection in Victoria, stopped delivering the course. Market Facilitation worked with RMIT and the training organisation of the National Fire Industry Association (NFIA), Fire Industry Training (FIT) to transition students to FIT. To take on the training industry contributed financial and in kind support and worked with government to develop resources to enhance the efficiency, effectiveness and sustainability of the course. An e-learning management system developed by FIT for students and staff; Online delivery methodologies, assessment tools and learning resources for Certificate III in Fire Protection, transferable to any provider; and The Victorian Government will continue to work with FIT, the training arm of NFIA Victoria, employers and training providers to ensure a sustainable training response is implemented to support the industry. Alignment to skills needs in regions This section considers training alignment with skills needs in regions by comparing the proportion of industry training within each region with the proportion of regional employment in Construction. Across metropolitan Melbourne, Construction business establishments are largely based in the outer growth suburbs where much of the new dwelling construction has taken place. In regional Victoria, Construction establishments are mostly based in the larger townships near the metropolitan urban growth boundary and major regional centres including Geelong, the Surf Coast, Bendigo and Ballarat.71 In 2013, the majority of Construction employment (72 per cent) was located within metropolitan Melbourne. The highest concentration of employment within the Construction industry in Victoria is within Southern Metropolitan (19 per cent), Eastern Metropolitan (18 per cent), and Inner Metropolitan (13 per cent).72 71 DSDBI (2012) Business location in Victoria: A decade of change 72 70 Regional distribution data are estimates only based on ABS (2011) Census of Population and Housing Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 Figure 6.3: Regional share of employment and enrolments Source: ABS (2011) Census of Population & Housing; SVTS In line with employment trends, Construction enrolments are also mainly concentrated in the metropolitan area. Inner Metropolitan had the largest number of enrolments in 2013, accounting for 17 per cent of total industry enrolments. Training delivery was also high in Southern Metropolitan, Hume, Northern Metropolitan. Given that the highest concentration of Construction related employment is in the metropolitan regions, this reflects a strong alignment between training delivery and regional requirements. Alignment in regional Victoria may be less strong. In regional Victoria, most of the enrolments are concentrated in Hume and Geelong, a trend not reflected in regional employment data. In contrast, the proportion of employment in Gippsland was higher than the proportion of enrolments. Table 6.5: Enrolments by region, ranked by 2013 enrolments, government subsidised, 2008–2013 Region 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Inner Metropolitan 5,700 5,600 7,300 7,500 9,700 10,700 Southern Metropolitan 4,000 4,400 5,200 6,100 6,500 7,500 Hume 1,400 1,200 2,000 2,200 2,100 7,400 Northern Metropolitan 4,200 4,400 5,000 5,100 5,600 7,000 Western Metropolitan 2,700 3,000 3,900 4,400 5,900 6,900 Eastern Metropolitan 5,400 5,800 8,000 7,900 6,900 6,300 Geelong and Surrounds 1,800 1,700 2,100 3,000 3,900 6,100 Loddon Mallee North 800 850 1,200 1,300 1,600 2,600 Loddon Mallee South 1,800 2,200 2,900 3,800 3,400 2,400 900 1,000 1,400 2,000 2,300 2,100 Gippsland 1,900 1,600 2,000 2,500 2,300 1,800 Great South Coast 1,000 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,400 30 40 100 200 250 200 Central Highlands Wimmera Southern Mallee Note that regional totals will be greater than total industry enrolments due to some enrolments falling within more than one region of training delivery. Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 71 Figure 6.4: Regional share of enrolments, 2008 and 2013 Alignment to employers and students: Employer satisfaction and student outcomes Training alignment in this section focuses on the degree of satisfaction with training provision and employment outcomes by both employers and students. Drawing on results from the NCVER Student Outcomes Survey 2012 and Survey of Employers' Use and Views of the VET System 2013 73insights can be gained on the performance of the VET system in meeting the needs of the Construction industry. Construction industry employers were satisfied overall with the VET system, with 74 per cent of employers stating that they were satisfied. This is slightly higher than the all-industry average (73 per cent). Within the Construction industry 88 per cent of students reported job-related benefits from their training. This is much higher than the all-industry average (72 per cent). Figure 6.5: Student and employer outcomes of vocational training Construction Satisfied Employers satisfied with VET system Students reporting jobrelated benefit from VET All- industry comparison 74% Benefit Satisfied Not-Satisfied 26% No Benefit 88% 12% Employers satisfied with VET system Students reporting jobrelated benefit from VET Not-Satisfied 73% Benefit 72% 27% No Benefit 28% Source: NCVER(2013) Survey of Employers' Use and Views of the VET System; NCVER (2012) Student Outcomes Survey Certain population groups face barriers to participation in education, training and the workforce. This section considers the proportion of industry training undertaken by different learner groups, and to what extent they are represented in Construction training when compared with all-industry averages. Women were significantly under-represented in Construction training, comprising only 3 per cent of enrolments in 2013 compared with an all industry average of 44 per cent. Students aged 25 years and older were also relatively under-represented in terms of Construction enrolments. They accounted for 48 per cent of enrolments, less than the all-industry share of 56 per cent. Culturally and Linguistically Diverse (CALD) students comprised 19 per cent of enrolments for this industry, less than the average across all industries (27 per cent). 73 Note: Employer satisfaction and student outcomes data for this industry is indicative only. Due to small sample sizes at the State level, data for individual industries is presented at national level. Employer satisfaction and student outcomes data for “All industries” is at Victorian level. 72 Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 Figure 6.6: Proportion of enrolments by student group, government subsidised, 2013 Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 73 Education and Training Education and Training includes units Training Snapshot mainly engaged in the provision and support of education and training, except those engaged in the training of animals e.g. dog obedience training, horse training. The total number of government subsidised enrolments related to Education and Training was 12,700 in 2013. This is an increase of 26 per cent on 2012. In addition there were 7,300 TAFE fee for service enrolments related to Education and Training, a decrease of 7 per cent since 2012. In 2013, the total number of reported completions for courses related to the Education and Training industry, was 11,200, a 10 per cent decrease since 2012. Table 7.1: Vocational training enrolments and completions, year on year changes, 2008-2013 Education and Training 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Government subsidised enrolments 6,700 8,400 9,100 10,200 10,100 12,700 Year-on-year % change - 24% 9% 12% -1% 26% Year-on-year % change (all industries) - 3% 18% 31% 14% -11% 5,400 6,100 5,500 7,000 7,900 7,300 Year-on-year % change - 13% -8% 26% 13% -7% Year-on-year % change (all industries) - 15% 3% 0% 18% -9% 6,500 7,000 8,500 11,000 12,400 11,200 Year-on-year % change - 8% 21% 30% 13% -10% Year-on-year % change (all industries) - 5% 19% 33% 29% -15% TAFE fee for service enrolments Completions Note: all enrolment data is government subsidised, unless otherwise stated. Completions data includes all reported government subsidised and fee for service activity by all providers (TAFE and non-TAFE). In 2013, private training providers accounted for half of all training delivery aligned to the Education and Training industry. TAFE delivery was 41 per cent, higher than TAFE provision across all industries. Learn Local provision in this industry was relatively high; double the all industry average of 4 per cent. The proportion of traineeship enrolments, 9 per cent of industry training delivery, was lower than the all industry average of 13 per cent. There were no apprentice enrolments in this industry. Figure 7.1: Share of industry enrolments compared against all industries, 2013 Education and Training industry Learn Local Training Dashboard Provider type 0% 9% Apprentice Band A 26% 10% Band B Band C 69% Band D 87% Certificate I-II Qualification level 81% Band E 1% 4% Certificate III + 10% 90% Band A Subsidy band Other 13% Certificate III + Other 90% Trainee Trainee Private 59% Apprentice 91% 19% TAFE 37% Other Certificate I-II Qualification level 4% Other 100% Trainee Trainee Provider type 50% Apprentice Apprentice Private 41% 8% Subsidy band 0% 74 TAFE All industries Learn Local 19% Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 Band B 34% Band C Band D 30% Band E 8% 9% Table 7.3: Top five occupations ranked by 2013 enrolments, government subsidised, 2012–2013 Table 7.2: Top five courses ranked by 2013 enrolments, government subsidised, 2012–2013 Course 2012 2013 Occupation 2012 2013 Certificate IV in Training and Assessment 5,300 3,700 Education Aides 2,000 4,000 Certificate III in Education Support 1,400 3,300 Vocational Education Teachers 5,600 3,900 Certificate II in Outdoor Recreation Certificate III in Business Administration (Education) 300 2,300 Outdoor Adventure Guides 650 3,100 250 750 250 750 Certificate IV in Education Support 450 550 Receptionists Sports Coaches, Instructors and Officials 1,100 550 Industry Overview Ranked seventh in terms of output, the Education and Training industry contributed an estimated $18.3 billion to the Victorian economy in 2012-13, around 6 per cent of Victoria's total gross value added. Over the past five years to June 2013, this represents an average annual growth of 5 per cent.74 There are an estimated 6,800 businesses operating in Victoria's Education and Training industry, accounting for a small proportion (1 per cent) of businesses across the state. Education and Training has a high concentration of small businesses (54 per cent sole traders; 37 per cent employing 1-19 employees). Thirty per cent of businesses have turnover of $200,000 or more per annum. This is lower than the average across all industries at 36 per cent.75 Approximately 233,200 people are employed in Victoria's Education and Training industry, equating to approximately 8 per cent of all employment in Victoria. This makes the Education and Training industry the sixth largest in terms of employment. The industry has seen employment growth of approximately 13 per cent over the last five years, equating to around 26,500 employees. The outlook over the next five years for the Education and Training industry as a whole is for employment to continue to grow by approximately 11 per cent (or 25,700 jobs).76 The Preschool and School Education sub-sector accounts for the largest proportion of industry employment, 58 per cent of the total. This is followed by the Tertiary Education sub-sector, with 29 per cent of employment in the industry. Figure 7.2: Share of employment by industry sub-sector, 2012–13 74 The Education and Training industry covers the full breath of education from early childhood through to post-secondary education and life-long learning. Changes across the industry are driven by the focus Australian Bureau of Statistics (2013) Australian National Accounts: State Accounts, CT NO: 5220.0 75 Australian Bureau of Statistics (2012) Counts of Australian Businesses, including Entries and Exits, Jun 2008 to Jun 2012, CT NO: 8165.0 76 Centre of Policy Studies, Monash University (2013) Labour Force Projections Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 75 on greater transparency and changes in funding models led by demand driven products and services. Enhancing quality, autonomy, accountability and professional development is also driving reform. Technology developments are a key enabler improving the delivery of training in this reform environment. In Victoria, the School Education sub-sector is undergoing significant changes through the ‘Towards Victoria as a Learning Community’ (TVLC) reforms. These reforms seek to support Victoria to achieve global top tier performance. TVLC focuses on enhancing professional trust, autonomy, and accountability and support. As part of these reforms the Government’s focus for the teacher workforce is to attract great people into teaching, stronger candidates and improveing preparation; create a high performance profession stimulate a culture of excellence and effective professional development; and finally to provide strong direction and support, elevating the role of leadership at school and system levels.77 Key drivers of changing skills and training needs In an increasingly knowledge-based economy, higher level skills are becoming more necessary for employment. Changes in the mix of skills and occupations required by various industries influence the demand for training and education, particularly for mature-age students who are often returning to education to up-skill, addressing the growing skills mismatch between the current skills base of the workforce against the emerging skill requirements of industry. Major reforms in the Tertiary Education sub-sector include the Victorian Government’s Refocusing Vocational Training reforms and the Commonwealth demand driven funding system for Higher Education. In an environment of change, particularly with the adoption of demand driven systems in both VET and higher education, the maintenance of skills and increasing the quality of the workforce is of central importance. Skills development that enables educators to keep abreast of changing industry skills needs, particularly in relation to technology as well as contemporary workplace capabilities will support improved quality and outcomes for students.78 Skillsets that support quality service delivery are also critical in a demand driven environment. This includes professional development in areas such as continuous improvement, assessment, instructional design, internal auditing as well as ensuring currency of industry knowledge and experience.79 These drivers have prompted a number of changes to training delivery within the industry and the Training Alignment section of this industry profile explores how the training market is tracking against skills needs. Training Alignment Summary 2013 Training Alignment an estimated Industry needs Specialised and/or skill shortage occupations Skills needs in regions + 14,500 employees per year required over the five years to 2017-18 26% 31% of enrolments in courses aligned to specialised occupations of enrolments in courses aligned to occupations experiencing skills shortage The top three employing regions accounted for These three regions accounted for 53% of industry employment Employer and student needs 12,700 vocational training enrolments in 2013 35% of industry enrolments in 2013 88% 73% of industry employers were satisfied with the VET system of students reported job-related benefits from VET 77 DEECD (2012) New Directions for school leadership and the teaching profession – Discussion Paper 78 Productivity Commission Research Report (2011), Vocational Education and Training Workforce 79 Innovation and Business Skills Australia (2013) Training and Education Environmental Scan 76 Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 Alignment to industry needs This section explores the alignment between vocational training and industry needs by comparing projected annual employment needs in the Education and Training industry with 2013 enrolments levels for qualifications aligned with the industry. Table 7.4 highlights the top ten employing occupations80 in the Education and Training industry. Forecasts presented in the table estimate average annual employment needs for this industry. The average annual employment needs include employment growth or decline and replacement demand 81 by occupation for the next five years. Over the next five years within the Education and Training industry the average annual employment needs is expected to be approximately 14,500 per year. Within Education and Training, the three largest occupations by employment size includes Secondary School Teachers, Primary School Teachers and Education Aides. The average annual employment needs over the next five years within Education and Training for these occupations are: 2,400 per annum for Secondary School Teachers; 2,250 per annum for Primary School Teachers; and 1,450 per annum for Education Aides. Table 7.4: Top ten occupations by employment, 2012–2013, and associated enrolments, 2013 2012-13 employment Employment growth to 2017-18 5-yr average annual employment need VET enrolments 2013 Secondary School Teachers 46,930 2,370 2,400 - Primary School Teachers 39,890 3,230 2,250 - Education Aides 16,780 2,590 1,450 4,000 University Lecturers and Tutors 13,940 1,290 770 - Vocational Education Teachers 7,040 340 500 3,900 Private Tutors and Teachers 6,620 80 350 50 Early Childhood Teachers 5,620 1,330 580 - Sports Coaches, Instructors and Officials 5,270 790 500 550 General Clerks 5,090 360 230 * Occupation Special Education Teachers 4,830 980 440 Source: Centre of Policy Studies, Monash University (2013) Labour Force Projections, SVTS Note: Occupations aligned to VET qualifications are highlighted in blue. *VET qualifications not directly aligned to the Education and Training industry and therefore outside the scope of this chapter. - When comparing projected annual employment needs with 2013 enrolment levels, some broad messages can be established regarding the alignment between government subsidised enrolments in Education and Training -related training and industry requirements. 2013 training delivery aligned to Vocational Education Teachers appear to surpass, expected average annual employment needs. Enrolments towards Private Tutors and Teachers fall below average annual employment needs, although needs likely met via other qualifications (i.e. no specific qualifications required). Alignment to specialised and/or in shortage occupations and skill needs Vocational training related to occupations identified as specialised or experiencing skill shortages that enhance the productive capacity of the Victorian economy are a high priority for government investment. This section highlights training alignment to areas of strategic skill needs for the Education and Training industry, including an analysis of enrolments in areas of identified skill shortages or aligned to specialised occupations.82 80 Occupations are listed at the ABS 4-digit ANZSCO Unit Group level 81 Forecast employment growth or decline is the expected change in the number of jobs within an occupation year to year. The period presented in the table from 2012-13 to 2017-18. Replacement demand is the number of existing workers that are forecast to leave the occupation through retirement, moving into a different industry or occupation or moving interstate etc. that require replacing to meet existing employment needs. 82 DEECD’s 2013 listing of Victorian skills shortages is at the 6-digit ABS ANZSCO occupation level. Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 77 Identified skills shortages in Education and Training for 2013 include: Early Childhood (Pre-Primary School) Teacher Vocational Education Teacher Child Carer Skills shortage occupations also relevant to Education and Training: Child Care Centre Manager In 2013, enrolments in specialised and in shortage occupations accounted for 31 per cent of industry training. This share was lower than the all industry average of 41 per cent. Enrolment trends over 2008 – 2013 show steady improvement in training alignment to critical occupations, with enrolments in specialised and in shortage occupations rising 12 per cent since 2012. Table 7.5: Enrolments related to specialised and/or in shortage occupations, government subsidised, 2008–2013 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 10,100 8,900 9,500 8,600 8,900 10,000 Year-on-year % change - -12% 7% -9% 3% 12% Year-on-year % change (all industries) - 12% 13% 18% 19% 14% Specialised / in shortage enrolments 78 Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 The following case study gives an example of DEECD’s work in bringing together training providers and employers in areas of skills needs. Case Study Early Childhood Scholarships A cornerstone of the Victorian Government’s support for the early childhood sector is offering scholarships for educators currently working in early childhood education and care services who wish to upgrade or attain an approved early childhood qualification. Issues DEECD intervention Outcomes The National Quality Framework prescribes minimum qualification requirements to work in the early childhood education and care sector. The Victorian Government is committed to supporting the early childhood workforce to meet sector reforms and the increased demand for quality early childhood services. Successful applicants are required to enter into a formal agreement with the Department to successfully complete the qualification and, upon completion work for a minimum period of time within Victorian licensed children’s or approved education and care service. The level of support offered and conditions vary by qualification type. The approved qualifications list is maintained by the Australian Children’s Education and Care Quality Authority (ACECQA). Approved VET qualifications include: 1. Certificate III in Early Childhood Education and Care 2. Certificate IV in School Age Education and Care 3. Diploma of Early Childhood Education and Care 4. Diploma of School Age Education and Care 5. Advanced Diploma of Children’s Services Since 2008, the Department has offered 2,170 early childhood scholarships – of which 1,235 have been for vocational qualifications. Approximately 50 per cent of the scholarship recipients have completed their vocational qualification and are now working in the early childhood workforce. The remaining scholarship recipients are in various stages of completing their early childhood qualification. Since 2010, the Department has offered 29 early childhood scholarships for Aboriginal People – of which sixteen have been for vocational qualifications. The future employment rating for a qualified early childhood educator is 4 out of 5 stars and future employment growth for this role is 11 per cent per annum. Source: DEEWR The Victorian Government will continue to offer scholarships in 2014-15 For more information about scholarship, please visit www.education.vic.gov.au/earlychildhoodscholarships For more information about careers in early childhood, please visit: www.education.vic.gov.au/earlyyearscareers Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 79 Alignment to skill need in regions Within metropolitan Melbourne there is a major concentration of Education and Training establishments in the City of Melbourne and Inner Eastern. In regional Victoria, the largest concentrations of Education and Training businesses are in the major regional population centres including Ballarat, Bendigo, Belmont, South Geelong, Shepparton, Traralgon and Warrnambool, Mildura, Wodonga and Sale.83 Seventy-four per cent of employment in the Education and Training industry is located within Metropolitan Melbourne. The highest concentration of employment within the Education and Training industry in Victoria is within Eastern Metropolitan (21 per cent), Southern Metropolitan (16 per cent), and Inner Metropolitan (16 per cent) regions.84 Figure 7.3: Regional share of employment and enrolments Source: ABS (2011) Census of Population and Housing, SVTS The Inner Metropolitan region had the largest number of enrolments in 2013, with 2,500 reported enrolments. The Hume and Western Metropolitan also reported high enrolment numbers in 2013. While Education and Training employment appears to be concentrated in the metropolitan areas (particularly in Eastern Metropolitan), course enrolments aligned to the Education and Training industry are more spread out across the State. In metropolitan Melbourne, Eastern and Southern Metropolitan appear to be relatively underrepresented in terms of training delivery, while Western Metropolitan accounts for a higher proportion of training that the region’s share industry employment. Alignment in regional Victoria appears to be strong, with the exception of Hume where the proportion of enrolments far surpass the regional share of employment. Table 7.6: Enrolments by region, ranked by 2013 enrolments, government subsidised, 2008–2013 Region 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Inner Metropolitan 750 750 900 2,000 2,400 2,500 Hume 350 450 500 500 700 2,300 Western Metropolitan 450 650 750 700 1,100 2,200 Northern Metropolitan 650 1,400 1,500 1,100 800 1,500 Southern Metropolitan 400 600 450 800 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,600 2,100 2,400 1,100 1,000 Geelong and Surrounds 350 400 250 600 800 750 Loddon Mallee South 350 250 350 450 800 400 80 100 100 300 450 350 Eastern Metropolitan Central Highlands 83 DSDBI (2012) Business location in Victoria: A decade of change 84 80 Regional distribution data are estimates only based on ABS (2011) Census of Population and Housing Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 Region 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Gippsland 700 700 750 400 600 300 Loddon Mallee North 250 350 300 250 250 200 Great South Coast 200 350 300 300 200 90 Wimmera Southern Mallee 80 100 200 40 30 20 Note that regional totals will be greater than total industry enrolments due to some enrolments falling within more than one region of training delivery. Figure 7.4: Regional share of enrolments, 2008 and 2013 Alignment to employers and students: Employer satisfaction and student outcomes Training alignment in this section focuses on the degree of satisfaction with training provision and employment outcomes by both employers and students. Drawing on results from the NCVER Student Outcomes Survey, 2012 and Survey of Employers' Use and Views of the VET System 201385 insights can be gained on the performance of the VET system in meeting the needs of the Education and Training industry. Employers from the Education and Training industry were satisfied overall with the VET system, with 88 per cent of employers stating that they were satisfied. This is considerably higher than the all industry average (73 per cent). Students who report a job-related benefit following completion of their training qualification were able to get a job, change jobs, get promoted, expand or set-up their business. Within the Education and Training industry 73 per cent of students reported job-related benefits from their training. This is slightly higher than the all industry average (72 per cent). Figure 7.5: Student and employer outcomes of vocational training Education and Training Satisfied Employers satisfied with VET system Students reporting jobrelated benefit from VET All- industry comparison Satisfied Not-Satisfied 88% Benefit 73% 12% No Benefit 27% Employers satisfied with VET system Students reporting jobrelated benefit from VET Not-Satisfied 73% Benefit 72% 27% No Benefit 28% Source: NCVER Survey of Employers' Use and Views of the VET System 2013 & NCVER Student Outcomes Survey 2012 85 Note: Employer satisfaction and student outcomes data for this industry is indicative only. Due to small sample sizes at the State level, data for individual industries is presented at national level. Employer satisfaction and student outcomes data for “All industries” is at Victorian level. Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 81 Certain population groups face barriers to participation in education, training and the workforce. This section considers the proportion of industry training undertaken by different learner groups, and to what extent they are represented in Education and Training industry training when compared with all-industry averages. Culturally and Linguistically Diverse (CALD) students were relatively under-represented in the Education and Training industry. CALD students accounted for 18 per cent of industry enrolments, lower than the all industry average of 27 per cent. Female students, on the other hand, comprised 56 per cent of enrolments for the Education and Training industry, significantly more than the 44 per cent all industry average. Figure 7.6: Proportion of enrolments by student group, government subsidised, 2013 82 Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services Victorian sectors engaged in the provision of electricity; gas through mains systems; water; drainage; and sewage services.86 Training Snapshot Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services (Utilities) covers those The total number of enrolments related to the Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services (Utilities) industry was 750 in 2013, a decline of 19 per cent on 2012. This decline may have been driven in part by the current economic climate. There were 3,300 TAFE fee for service enrolments related to the Utilities industry in 2013. The proportion of TAFE fee for service delivery is relatively high in this industry. In 2013, the total number of reported completions for courses related to the Utilities industry, was 1,200, a 17 per cent increase since 2012. Table 8.1: Vocational training enrolments and completions, year on year changes, 2008–2013 Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 800 700 850 1,000 950 750 Year-on-year % change - -10% 23% 20% -8% -19% Year-on-year % change (all industries) - 3% 18% 31% 14% -11% 600 500 500 2,800 4,000 3,300 Year-on-year % change - -8% -4% 433% 46% -17% Year-on-year % change (all industries) - 15% 3% 0% 18% -9% 450 800 850 900 1,000 1,200 Year-on-year % change - 68% 6% 12% 7% 17% Year-on-year % change (all industries) - 5% 19% 33% 29% -15% Government subsidised enrolments TAFE fee for service enrolments Completions TAFE institutes delivered a majority of government subsidised Utilities enrolments in 2013, 85 per cent of the total – significantly above the all-industry average of 37 per cent. In 2013, the industry provided a relatively large number of apprenticeships. Apprentice enrolments accounted for 41 per cent of enrolments, four times larger than the all-industry average of 10 per cent. The proportion of traineeships in 2013 was also higher than the all-industry average, accounting for 26 per cent of enrolments compared to an average of 13 per cent. 86 Electricity supply activities include the generation, transmission and distribution of electricity and the on-selling of electricity via power distribution systems operated by others. Gas supply includes the distribution of gas, such as natural gas or liquefied petroleum gas, through mains systems. Water supply includes the storage, treatment and distribution of water; drainage services include the operation of drainage systems; and sewage services include the collection, treatment and disposal of waste through sewer systems and sewage treatment facilities. Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 83 Training Dashboard Figure 8.1: Share of industry enrolments compared against all industries, 2013 Table 8.2: Top five courses ranked by 2013 enrolments, government subsidised, 2012–2013 Course Certificate III in ESI - Distribution Advanced Diploma of Engineering Technology - Electrical Certificate III in ESI - Power Systems Distribution Overhead Certificate III in Asset Maintenance (Waste Management) Advanced Diploma of ESI - Power Systems 2012 Table 8.3: Top five occupations ranked by 2013 enrolments, government subsidised, 2012–2013 2013 200 Occupation 2012 2013 200 Electrical Distribution Trades Workers 300 350 150 100 Electrical Engineering Draftspersons and Technicians 200 100 - 100 Recycling and Rubbish Collectors 200 100 150 70 Chemical, Gas, Petroleum and Power Generation Plant Operators 100 80 50 40 Other Stationary Plant Operators 50 50 Industry Overview 87 The Utilities industry contributed an estimated $10.6 billion to the Victorian economy in 2012-13, around 3 per cent of Victoria's total gross value added. Over the five years to June 2013, this represents an average annual growth of 20 per cent.87 There are an estimated 1,500 businesses operating in Victoria's Utilities industry Utilities has a high concentration of small businesses (50 per cent sole traders; 42 per cent employing 1-19 employees). Two per cent employ over 200 employees. Forty-eight per cent of businesses have a turnover of $200,000 or more per annum. This is higher than the average across all industries at 36 per cent.88 The Utilities industry is one of the smallest employing industries in Victoria. Approximately 34,800 people are employed in Victoria's Utilities industry, equating to about 1 per cent of all employment in Victoria. However, the industry has been growing rapidly over the past five years. The industry has seen employment growth of approximately 30 per cent (the second-highest rate of employment growth of all Victorian industries), equating to around 8,100 employees. The outlook over the next five years is for employment to continue to grow, increasing by approximately 10 per cent (or 3,500 jobs).89 Australian Bureau of Statistics (2013) Australian National Accounts: State Accounts, CT NO: 5220.0 Australian Bureau of Statistics (2012) Counts of Australian Businesses, including Entries and Exits, Jun 2008 to Jun 2012, CT NO: 8165.0 89 Centre of Policy Studies, Monash University (2013) Labour Force Projections 84 Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 88 The Electricity Supply sub-sector accounts for the largest proportion of industry employment, 43 per cent of the total. This is followed by the Water Supply, Sewerage and Drainage sub-sectors, with 31 per cent of employment in the industry. Figure 8.2: Share of employment by industry sub-sector, 2012–13 Key drivers of changing skills and training needs The Victorian Utilities industry has been growing rapidly in response to large capital investments, requiring increased numbers of operations and maintenance staff. While demand for training associated with employment growth may now be reduced, the changing nature of required skill sets and expected departures from the industry will continue to generate ongoing demand for skills development. Key drivers of changing skills needs include: Increased focus on improving productivity. Industry productivity has been declining for several years. Appropriately skilling the workforce is one way to aid productivity, and produce more with less. Environmental, political and legal factors are causing energy generation to transition away from coal to clean energy (local, solar, wind, gas etc.), and waste to shift away from landfill to recycling. These transitions require new skill sets. In addition, consumers are demanding more information about their energy and water use, which will require skills in areas like brokerage, auditing and management. The industry has an older-than-average workforce and needs to attract younger workers into the industry. Upcoming retirements will see an exit of skills from the workforce. Exits are likely to be highest in ‘trades’ type roles, as older employees are known to leave these more physically demanding roles. These drivers have prompted a number of changes to training delivery within the industry and the Training Alignment section of this industry profile explores how the training market is tracking against skills needs. Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 85 Training Alignment Summary 2013 Training Alignment an estimated Industry needs Specialised and/or skill shortage occupations Skills needs in regions Employer and student needs + 2,300 employees per year required over the five years to 2017-18 68% 750 vocational training enrolments in 2013 82% of enrolments in courses aligned to specialised occupations of enrolments in courses aligned to occupations experiencing skills shortage The top three employing regions accounted for These three regions accounted for 56% of industry employment 70% of industry enrolments in 2013 74% 73% of industry employers were satisfied with the VET system of students reported job-related benefits from VET Alignment to industry needs This section explores the alignment between vocational training and industry needs by comparing projected annual employment needs in the Utilities industry with 2013 enrolments aligned to the industry. Table 8.4 highlights the key occupations90 in the Utilities industry. Due to the diversity of the sub-sectors within the industry, occupations have been listed by sub-sector. Forecasts presented in the table estimate average annual employment needs for the relevant sub-sector. The average annual employment needs include employment growth or decline and replacement demand91 by occupation for the next five years. Over the next five years, the average annual employment needs for Utilities is expected to be approximately 2,300 per year, with the highest employment need (around 1,000) in the Electricity Supply sub-sector. 90 Key occupations are listed at the ABS 4-digit ANZSCO Unit Group level and were selected based on their relevance to the sub-sector and the employment level within the sub-sector. 91 Forecast employment growth or decline is the expected change in the number of jobs within an occupation year to year. The period presented in the table from 2012-13 to 2017-18. Replacement demand is the number of existing workers that are forecast to leave the occupation through retirement, moving into a different industry or occupation or moving interstate etc. that require replacing to meet existing employment needs. 86 Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 Table 8.4: Key occupations by employment by sub-sector, 2012-13, and associated enrolments 2013 2012-13 employment Occupation Employment growth to 2017-18 5-yr average annual employment need VET enrolments 2013 Electricity Supply Electrical Distribution Trades Workers 1,130 110 150 350 Electricians 830 90 50 * Electrical Engineers 570 120 50 - 100 - 10 30 Electrical Engineers 70 20 10 - Electrical Distribution Trades Workers 70 - 10 * Gas Supply Plumbers Water Supply, Sewerage and Drainage Services Other Stationary Plant Operators 1,540 340 160 50 Civil Engineering Professionals 840 90 80 - Building and Plumbing Labourer 620 -20 30 * Waste Collection, Treatment and Disposal Services Other Machine Operators 220 40 20 - Earthmoving Plant Operators 210 -20 - 10 Forklift Drivers 150 20 10 - Source: Centre of Policy Studies, Monash University (2013) Labour Force Projections Note that occupations aligned to VET are highlighted in blue. *VET qualifications not directly aligned to the Utilities industry and therefore outside the scope of this chapter. When comparing projected annual employment needs with 2013 enrolment levels, some broad messages can be established regarding the alignment between government subsidised enrolments in Utilities-related training and industry requirements. Within the Electricity supply sub-sector enrolments aligned to Electrical Distribution Trades employees are higher than projected annual employment needs, however a high proportion of enrolments aligned to this occupation are in apprenticeships. Given the duration of apprenticeships, enrolments may need to increase to align with industry skills needs. The sub-sector also employs a significant number of Electricians, however this occupation is not directly aligned to the Utilities industry, and so enrolments are not shown here. The projected annual employment need for plumbers within the Gas Supply sub-sector appears to be well-balanced against the number of enrolments in the VET system. Within the Water Supply, Sewerage and Drainage Services sub-sector enrolments reported against Other Stationary Plant Operators are below the projected annual employment needs indicating a potential misalignment. Employment for Earthmoving Plant Operators is projected to decline within the Waste Collection, Treatment and Disposal Services sub-sector, likely explaining the small number of enrolments in VET training related to this occupation. The other key occupations listed within this sub-sector are not serviced by the VET system. Given the high proportion of TAFE fee for service delivery in the Utilities industry, further investigation may be required as to the extent to which fee for service delivery may be meeting industry skills requirements. More broadly, DEECD will continue to work with industry and training providers to ensure that training provision is aligned with employer needs. Alignment to specialised and/or in shortage occupations and skill needs Vocational training related to occupations identified as specialised or experiencing skill shortages that enhance the productive capacity of the Victorian economy are a high priority for government investment. This section highlights training alignment to areas of strategic skill needs for the Utilities industry, including an analysis of enrolments in areas of identified skill shortages or aligned to specialised occupations92. 92 DEECD’s 2013 listing of Victorian skills shortages is at the 6-digit ABS ANZSCO occupation level. Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 87 The Utilities industry is primarily tested by a carbon-constrained future which is compounded by demographic issues. Training packages are being designed (e.g. gas/electricity supply) to respond to these developments. However much of the skills will need to come from general training, including management skills development. An ageing workforce, characteristic of the Utilities industry, may be addressed in part by an increased recruitment effort to bring more young people into the industry. It will also be important to expand training of new graduates to improve the efficiency of skills development (for example, by improving completion rates and targeting support to areas of greatest need) without compromising outcomes. Furthermore, there may be scope to incentivise older employees to stay in the industry by training them in emerging skill sets like brokerage, auditing and management. As part of these workforce development steps, it will be important for the industry to ensure that knowledge is effectively transferred to younger employees. Identified skills shortages in Utilities for 2013 include: Electrical Engineer Electrical Engineering Draftsperson Electrical Engineering Technician Plumber Gasfitter Electrical Linesworker Technical Cable Jointer Skills shortage occupations also relevant to Utilities include: Fitter; Metal Machinist; Truck Driver The proportion of enrolments in specialised and in shortage occupations is higher for Utilities when compared with the all-industry average, 82 per cent compared with 41 per cent. Enrolments in courses aligned to specialised / in shortage occupations have fallen between 2012 and 2013, in contrast to the 14 per cent increase averaged across all industries. Table 8.5: Enrolments related to specialised and/or in shortage occupations, government subsidised, 2008–2013 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 500 450 500 850 750 650 Year-on-year % change - -12% 11% 68% -9% -17% Year-on-year % change (all industries) - 12% 13% 18% 19% 14% Specialised / in shortage Alignment to skills needs in regions In metropolitan Melbourne, the highest concentrations of business establishments in 2010-11 were in Melbourne CBD; Dandenong and Parkdale in the south east; Narre Warren, Pakenham and Cranbourne in the outer south-east; West Footscray in the west; and Thomastown in the north. In regional Victoria, Utilities business establishments are located mostly in major regional centres, such as Shepparton, Ballarat, Morwell, Bacchus Marsh, Warrnambool, Horsham, Kyneton and Traralgon.93 Sixty-four per cent of employment in the Utilities industry is concentrated in metropolitan Melbourne. The highest concentration of employment within the Utilities industry in Victoria’s regions is within Inner Metropolitan (30 per cent), Southern Metropolitan (14 per cent), and Eastern Metropolitan (11 per cent) regions.94 93 DSDBI (2012) Business location in Victoria: A decade of change 94 Regional distribution data are estimates only based on ABS (2011) Census of Population and Housing 88 Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 Figure 8.3: Regional share of employment and enrolments Source: ABS (2011) Census of Population and Housing, SVTS The Inner Metropolitan region, the largest region in terms of Utilities employment, is also the largest region in terms of government subsidised training delivery. However, it accounts for a significantly higher proportion of training than its share of employment (55 per cent compared with 30 per cent). There also appear to be potential gaps in alignment in regional Victoria, particularly in Gippsland where the regional share of government subsidised enrolments falls below its share of Utilities employment (10 per cent and 1 per cent respectively). Table 8.6: Enrolments by region, ranked by 2013 enrolments, government subsidised, 2008–2013 Region 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Inner Metropolitan 300 300 350 500 350 450 Northern Metropolitan 200 150 200 150 150 100 20 10 20 60 100 60 100 60 30 70 80 60 40 60 30 60 90 50 - - - - 20 20 70 60 30 60 70 20 Hume Eastern Metropolitan Southern Metropolitan Loddon Mallee North Geelong and Surrounds Western Metropolitan 20 30 100 70 50 10 Note that regional totals will be greater than total industry enrolments due to some enrolments falling within more than one region of training delivery. Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 89 Figure 8.4: Regional share of enrolments, 2008 and 2013 Alignment to employers and students: Employer satisfaction and student outcomes Training alignment in this section focuses on the degree of satisfaction with training provision and employment outcomes by both employers and students. Drawing on results from the NCVER Student Outcomes Survey 2012 and Survey of Employers' Use and Views of the VET System 201395 insights can be gained on the performance of the VET system in meeting the needs of the Utilities industry. Utilities industry employers were satisfied overall with the VET system, with 74 per cent of employers stating that they were satisfied. This is slightly higher than the all-industry average (73 per cent). Students who report a job-related benefit following completion of their training qualification were able to get a job, change jobs, get promoted, expand or set up their own business. Within the Utilities industry 73 per cent of students reported job-related benefits from their training. This is slightly higher than the all-industry average of 72 per cent. Figure 8.5: Student and employer outcomes of vocational training Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services Satisfied Employers satisfied with VET system Students reporting jobrelated benefit from VET 73% Satisfied Not-Satisfied 74% Benefit All- industry comparison 26% No Benefit 27% Employers satisfied with VET system Students reporting jobrelated benefit from VET Not-Satisfied 73% Benefit 72% 27% No Benefit 28% Source: NCVER Survey of Employers' Use and Views of the VET System 2013 and NCVER Student Outcomes Survey 2012 Certain population groups face barriers to participation in education, training and the workforce. This section considers the proportion of industry training undertaken by different learner groups, and to what extent they are represented in Utilities training when compared with all-industry averages. Women, Culturally and Linguistically Diverse (CALD) and unemployed students were relatively underrepresented in Utilities industry training when compared with the all-industry average in 2013. Enrolments by female students comprised 3 per cent of Utilities training delivery in 2013, compared with an average across all industries of 44 per cent. CALD students comprised 13 per cent of industry enrolments for this industry compared with an average of 27 per cent. Enrolments by unemployed students accounted for 4 per cent of enrolments, significantly less than the all-industry average of 25 per cent. 95 Note: Employer satisfaction and student outcomes data for this industry is indicative only. Due to small sample sizes at the State level, data for individual industries is presented at national level. Employer satisfaction and student outcomes data for “All industries” is at Victorian level. 90 Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 Figure 8.6: Proportion of enrolments by student group, government subsidised, 2013 Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 91 Financial and Insurance Services Training Snapshot Financial and Insurance Services industry covers banks, building societies, credit unions, insurers, superannuation providers, fund managers, accountants and financial planners and advisers and is engaged in financial transactions involving the creation, liquidation, or change in ownership of financial assets, and/or in facilitating financial transactions The total number of government subsidised enrolments related to the Financial and Insurance Services industry was 3,100 in 2013, representing a decline of 51 per cent when compared with 2012. This decline follows a very large increase in enrolments in 2011. This decline may have been driven in part by the current economic climate, and may also indicate a shift towards higher education and away from VET delivery for this industry. VET enrolments related to Financial and Insurance Services industry tend to be for higher level qualifications – in 2013, 48 per cent of enrolments were at the Diploma level or above, compared to an average of 15 per cent across all industries – suggesting that substitution between VET and higher education is possible for much of the training delivered for this industry. There were 350 TAFE fee for service enrolments in 2013. Reported Financial and Insurance Services course completions stood at 2,300 in 2013. Table 9.1: Vocational training enrolments and completions, year on year changes, 2008–2013 Financial and Insurance Services 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Government subsidised enrolments 1,000 1,400 1,700 6,700 6,300 3,100 Year-on-year % change 30% 28% 288% -7% -51% Year-on-year % change (all industries) 3% 18% 31% 14% -11% TAFE fee for service enrolments 2,000 300 200 300 300 350 Year-on-year % change -84% -30% 13% 24% 14% Year-on-year % change (all industries) 15% 3% 0% 18% -9% Completions 850 1,100 1,500 1,900 4,500 2,300 Year-on-year % change 34% 30% 26% 143% -49% Year-on-year % change (all industries) 5% 19% 33% 29% -15% Note: all enrolment data is government subsidised, unless otherwise stated. Completions data includes all reported government subsidised and fee for service activity by all providers (TAFE and non-TAFE). 92 Private training providers accounted for a majority of training delivery in this industry, 88 per cent. This compared with an average of 59 per cent private provision across all industries. TAFE Institutes accounted for 12 per cent of Financial and Insurance Services training delivery, while Learn Local provision in this industry was low (less than 1 per cent of 2013 enrolments). A relatively high proportion of Financial and Insurance Services industry training is aligned to traineeships, accounting for 18 per cent of training delivery in 2013 compared with an all industry average of 13 per cent. There were no apprentice enrolments recorded for this industry in 2013. Ninety-nine per cent of enrolments aligned to the Financial and Insurance Services industry were at Certificate III or above, much higher than the all industry average. Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 Figure 9.1: Share of industry enrolments compared against all industries, 2013 Financial and Insurance Services industry Learn Local Training Dashboard Provider type TAFE 12% All industries Learn Local Private Provider type 88% 4% 0% Trainee Trainee Apprentice 1% Trainee 0% 90% Band A 42% Certificate III + 10% Band D 58% 87% Certificate I-II Qualification level 99% Other 13% Certificate III + Band C Subsidy band 90% Trainee 82% Other 10% Other 18% Certificate I-II Qualification level 59% Apprentice 100% Private 37% Other Apprentice TAFE Subsidy band 19% Band B Band C 34% Band D 30% Band E 8% 9% 0% 0% Table 9.2: Top five occupations ranked by 2013 enrolments, government subsidised, 2012–2013 Course 2012 Bank Workers Financial Investment Advisers and Managers Credit and Loans Officers Insurance Agents Insurance, Money Market and Statistical Clerks 2013 Table 9.3: Top five courses ranked by 2013 enrolments, government subsidised, 2012–2013 Occupation 2012 2013 3,500 1,300 Certificate III in Financial Services 750 850 1,800 650 150 1,100 400 150 600 150 70 800 300 200 80 80 Diploma of Financial Planning Certificate IV in Banking Services Advanced Diploma of Financial Planning Certificate IV in General Insurance 30 100 Industry Overview 96 The Financial and Insurance Services industry contributed an estimated $33.1 billion to the Victorian economy in 2012–13, around 11 per cent of Victoria's total gross value added, the largest contributing industry to the Victorian economy. Over the five years to June 2013, the industry has grown by an average annual rate of 4 per cent.96 The highest concentration of businesses within the Financial and Insurance Services industry were within Insurance and Superannuation Funds sub-sector (42 per cent of all businesses) and Auxiliary Finance and Insurance Services sub-sector (31 per cent of all businesses). Twenty-one per cent of businesses had turnover of $200,000 or more per annum. This is lower than the average across all industries at 36 per cent, reflecting the higher concentration of sole traders in the industry.97 Approximately 116,700 people were employed in Victoria's Financial and Insurance Services industry in 2012–13, equating to 4 per cent of all employment in Victoria. The industry has seen employment growth of approximately 8 per cent over the last five years, equating to around 8,800 employees. The Finance sub-sector accounts for the largest proportion of industry employment, 48 per cent of the total. This is followed by the Auxiliary Finance and Insurance Services sub-sector, with 29 per cent of employment in the industry. The outlook over the next five years for Financial and Insurance Services is for employment to continue to grow, increasing by approximately 11 per cent (or 12,800 jobs). 98 Australian Bureau of Statistics (2013) Australian National Accounts: State Accounts, CT NO: 5220.0 97 Australian Bureau of Statistics (2012) Counts of Australian Businesses, including Entries and Exits, Jun 2008 to Jun 2012, CT NO: 8165.0 98 Centre of Policy Studies, Monash University (2013) Labour Force Projections Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 93 Figure 9.2: Share of employment by industry sub-sector, 2012–13 Finance 23% 48% Auxiliary Finance and Insurance Services 29% Insurance and Superannuation Funds Source: Centre of Policy Studies, Monash University (2013) Labour Force Projections The overall performance of the Financial and Insurance Services industry is closely tied to the state of the economy and financial markets. In the short term asset prices, equity and debt markets continue to seek further stability while in the longer term, business and consumer confidence, market stability and global economic recovery will play a central role in determining industry performance over the next five years. With sustainability reporting becoming mainstream, skill development will be required to support the integration of sustainability into current businesses processes.99 Training in corporate governance, business ethics and quality assurance also remains important. Overall, businesses within the Financial and Insurance Services industry have a strong preference for customised, current training products and service offerings which reflect the specific needs of the organisation. There is also a preference for on-the-job training delivery. The ‘Training Alignment’ section of this industry profile explores how the training market is tracking against skills needs. Training Alignment Summary 2013 Training Alignment an estimated Industry needs Specialised and/or skill shortage occupations + 6,700 employees per year required over the five years to 2017-18 2% of enrolments in courses aligned to specialised occupations The top three employing regions accounted for Skills needs in regions Employer and student needs 83% of industry employment 3,100 vocational training enrolments in 2013 There were no skills shortage occupations aligned to this industry These three regions accounted for 85% of industry enrolments in 2013 81% 88% of industry employers were satisfied with the VET system of students reported job-related benefits from VET Alignment to industry needs This section explores the alignment between vocational training and industry needs by comparing projected annual employment needs in Financial and Insurance Services with 2013 enrolment levels for qualifications aligned to the industry. Table 9.4 highlights the top ten employing occupations100 in the Financial and Insurance Services industry. Forecasts presented in the table estimate average annual employment needs for this industry. Average Innovation & Business Skills Australia (2103) Environmental Scan, 2013 – Challenges 2013/14 Occupations are listed at the ABS 4-digit ANZSCO Unit Group level. 94 Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 99 100 annual employment needs include employment growth or decline and replacement demand101 by occupation for the next five years. Over the next five years, average annual employment needs for the Financial and Insurance Services industry are expected to be approximately 6,700 per year. This compares with government subsidised vocational training enrolments of 3,100 in 2013. As the higher education system also provides training relevant to these occupations, this likely does not indicate a shortfall in training. The three largest occupations by employment size include Bank Employees, Financial Investment Advisers and Insurance, Money Market and Statistics Clerk. Over the next five years, projected average annual employment needs for these employees are: 730 per annum for Bank Employees; 620 per annum for Financial Investment Advisers; and 270 per annum for Insurance, Money Market and Statistics Clerks. Table 9.4: Top ten occupations by employment, 2012–2013, and associated enrolments, 2013 Occupation Bank Workers Financial Investment Advisers and Managers Insurance, Money Market and Statistics Clerk 2012-13 employment Employment growth to 2017-18 5-yr average annual employment needs VET enrolments 2013 13,970 100 730 1,300 10,660 1,800 620 1,100 6,350 150 270 80 Credit and Loans Officers 5,290 610 390 400 Financial Brokers 5,080 80 230 60 Accountants Other Hospitality, Retail and Service Managers Software and Application Programmers 4,840 660 260 * 4,810 930 320 * 4,010 420 240 * Financial Dealers 3,430 - 150 - Advertising and Sales Managers 3,410 410 190 Source: Centre of Policy Studies, Monash University (2013) Labour Force Projections, SVTS Note: Occupations aligned to VET qualifications are highlighted in blue. *VET qualifications not directly aligned to Accommodation and Food Services and therefore outside the scope of this chapter. When comparing projected annual employment needs with 2013 enrolment levels, some broad messages can be established regarding the alignment between government subsidised enrolments in Financial and Insurance Services-related training and industry requirements. 2013 training delivery aligned to Bank Employees, Financial Investment Advisers and Managers and Credit and Loans Officers appears to be well-placed to meet anticipated average annual employment needs. Based on 2013 enrolments levels, training aligned to Insurance, Money Market and Statistics Clerks and Financial Brokers may need to increase to meet anticipated employment needs over the next five years. Further investigation is required to determine to what extent the skills needs of these occupations are being met by other means (for example, fee for service delivery or higher education qualifications). Alignment to specialised and/or in shortage occupations and skill needs Vocational training related to occupations identified as specialised or experiencing skill shortages that enhance the productive capacity of the Victorian economy are a high priority for government investment. This section highlights training alignment to areas of strategic skill needs by analysing training delivery in areas of specialised occupations. 101 Across the state, employment in the Financial and Insurance Services industry has been turbulent due to ongoing efficiencies created by technology and the impact of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). The Financial and Insurance Services industry has a natural focus on knowledge and analytical skills requiring candidates from both higher education and those with vocational industry-based skills. Forecast employment growth or decline is the expected change in the number of jobs within an occupation year to year. The period presented in the table from 2012-13 to 2017-18. Replacement demand is the number of existing workers that are forecast to leave the occupation through retirement, moving into a different industry or occupation or moving interstate etc. that require replacing to meet existing employment needs. Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 95 The use of ICT in Financial Services and the offshoring of lower skilled jobs 102 are also strong trends in the industry and increase the reliance on training for a more highly skilled sector. ICT skill sets important to the Financial and Insurance Services industry include data analysis, social media, security, cloud computing and web and mobile based applications. The proportion of jobs that are at risk of being offshored in this sector is twice as high as other services sectors. This highlights the importance of reskilling in an environment of industry restructure. Table 9.5: Enrolments related to specialised occupations, government subsidised, 2008–2013 Specialised enrolments Year-on-year % change Year-on-year % change (all industries) 2008 - 2009 12% 2010 10 13% 2011 10 10% 18% 2012 100 773% 19% 2013 60 -43% 14% In 2013, there were a total of 60 enrolments aligned to specialised occupations within the Financial and Insurance Services industry, representing 2 per cent of training delivery. All enrolments were at the Diploma and above qualification level. Alignment to skills needs in regions This section considers training alignment with skills needs in regions by comparing the proportion of industry training within each region with the proportion of regional employment in Financial and Insurance Services. Over 80 per cent (5,680 establishments) of Financial and Insurance Services businesses were based in metropolitan Melbourne, particularly in the Central Business District (CBD) and the surrounding inner suburbs. Financial Services business establishments in regional Victoria are generally concentrated in the major regional centres of Ballarat, Bendigo, Geelong, Latrobe Valley and Shepparton.103 The highest concentration of employment within the Financial and Insurance Services industry in Victoria was within Inner Metropolitan (65 per cent), Eastern Metropolitan (11 per cent), and Southern Metropolitan (7 per cent) regions.104 Figure 9.3: Regional share of employment and enrolments Source: ABS (2011) Census of Population and Housing, SVTS 102 103 104 96 The Inner Metropolitan region had the largest number of enrolments, with 2,500 in 2013 (83 per cent of training in this industry). Northern Metropolitan and Eastern Metropolitan accounted for 9 per cent and 4 per cent of industry enrolments respectively. The remaining Victorian areas each delivered less than 100 enrolments relating to this industry in 2013. Innovation & Business Skills Australia (2013) Environmental Scan, 2013 – Challenges 2013/14 DSDBI (2012) Business location in Victoria: A decade of change Regional Distribution are estimates only based on ABS (2011) Census of Population and Housing Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 Employment and training delivery aligned to the Financial and Insurance Services industry are both concentrated with the metropolitan Melbourne area. Vocational training can therefore be thought to be reasonably well aligned in terms of training delivery, although there may be some scope to increase the proportion of training delivery in the Geelong & Surrounds region (currently accounting for 3 per cent of employment and 1 per cent of training delivery. Table 9.6: Enrolments by region, ranked by 2013 enrolments, government subsidised, 2008–2013 Region Inner Metropolitan 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 600 600 1,100 5,900 5,500 2,500 Northern Metropolitan 20 10 20 250 300 250 Eastern Metropolitan 150 100 150 200 200 100 40 30 20 20 20 40 Southern Metropolitan 100 150 200 150 40 30 Loddon Mallee North 40 40 40 40 30 20 Geelong and Surrounds 10 10 10 - 10 20 Loddon Mallee South - 80 70 30 10 10 Western Metropolitan 40 40 30 40 10 10 Central Highlands 20 10 - - - - Great South Coast - 20 20 20 20 - Hume - 10 10 10 10 - Gippsland Wimmera Southern Mallee 10 Note that regional totals will be greater than total industry enrolments due to some enrolments falling within more than one region of training delivery. Figure 9.4: Regional share of enrolments, 2008 and 2013 Alignment to employers and students: Employer satisfaction and student outcomes Training alignment in this section focuses on the degree of satisfaction with training provision and employment outcomes by both employers and students. Drawing on results from the NCVER Student Outcomes Survey 2012 and Survey of Employers' Use and Views of the VET System 2013105 insights can be gained on the performance of the VET system in meeting the needs of the Accommodation and Food Services industry. 105 Note: Employer satisfaction and student outcomes data for this industry is indicative only. Due to small sample sizes at the State level, data for individual industries is presented at national level. Employer satisfaction and student outcomes data for “All industries” is at Victorian level. Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 97 - Financial and Insurance Services industry employers were satisfied overall with the VET system, with 81 per cent of employers stating that they were satisfied. This is considerably higher than the allindustry average (73 per cent). Within the Financial and Insurance Services industry 70 per cent of students reported job-related benefits following completion of their training qualification. These included being able to get a job, change jobs, get promoted, expand or set up their own business. Despite high satisfaction from employers, student job-related outcomes were lower when compared to the all industry average (72 per cent). DEECD will continue to monitor the training market in 2014, to ensure that training provision is aligned to student needs. Figure 9.5: Student and employer outcomes of vocational training Financial and Insurance Services Satisfied Employers satisfied with VET system Students reporting jobrelated benefit from VET All- industry comparison Satisfied Not-Satisfied 81% Benefit 70% 19% No Benefit 30% Employers satisfied with VET system Students reporting jobrelated benefit from VET Not-Satisfied 73% Benefit 72% 27% No Benefit 28% Source: NCVER (2013) Survey of Employers' Use and Views of the VET System; NCVER (2012) Student Outcomes Survey Certain population groups face barriers to participation in education, training and the workforce. This section considers the proportion of industry training undertaken by different learner groups, and to what extent they are represented in Financial and Insurance Services training when compared with all-industry averages. In 2013, female students and those aged 25 and above were relatively well-represented among Financial and Insurance training delivery Enrolments by women accounted for 53 per cent of training delivery compared with an all-industry average of 44 per cent. Students aged 25 years and older made up 69 per cent of enrolments for this industry, significantly more than the average across all industries (56 per cent). Figure 9.6: Proportion of enrolments by student group, government subsidised, 2013 98 Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 Health Care and Social Assistance Health Care and Social Assistance is engaged in human services, health care and social assistance. Training Snapshot The total number of enrolments related to the Health Care and in 2013, an increase of 12 per cent on 2012. There were 18,000 TAFE fee for service enrolments in 2013, although higher than the long term trend. In 2013, the total number of reported completions for courses Assistance industry, was 35,100, a 13 per cent increase since cent average decline across all industries. Social Assistance industry was 87,300 a decrease of 6 per cent since 2012, aligned to the Health Care and Social 2012. This is in contrast to the 15 per Table 10.1: Vocational training enrolments and completions, year on year changes, 2008–2013 Health Care and Social Assistance 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Government subsidised enrolments 29,900 36,100 45,800 61,400 77,600 87,300 Year-on-year % change 21% 27% 34% 26% 12% Year-on-year % change (all industries) 3% 18% 31% 14% -11% TAFE fee for service enrolments 10,100 14,600 16,000 13,500 19,100 18,000 Year-on-year % change 45% 9% -15% 42% -6% Year-on-year % change (all industries) 15% 3% 0% 18% -9% Completions 14,200 16,200 20,600 25,400 30,900 35,100 Year-on-year % change 14% 27% 23% 22% 13% Year-on-year % change (all industries) 5% 19% 33% 29% -15% Note: all enrolment data is government subsidised, unless otherwise stated. Completions data includes all reported government subsidised and fee for service activity by all providers (TAFE and non-TAFE). Private training providers accounted for a majority of training delivery in this industry, 62 per cent. This compared with an average of 59 per cent private provision across all industries. TAFE providers accounted for 28 per cent of Healthcare and Social Assistance training delivery, while Learn Local training provision in this industry was relatively high at 10 per cent of enrolments. The proportion of trainee enrolments, 8 per cent of industry training delivery, was lower than the all industry average of 13 per cent. There are less than 100 apprenticeship enrolments in Health Care and Social Assistance. Ninety-eight per cent of enrolments aligned to the Health Care and Social Assistance industry were at Certificate III and above, higher than the all industry average of 90 per cent. Figure 10.1: Share of industry enrolments compared against all industries, 2013 Health Care and Social Assistance industry Learn Local Training Dashboard Provider type 10% TAFE 0% 45% 0% 10% Trainee Band B Band C 52% 87% Certificate I-II Qualification level Band D 2% Certificate III + 10% 90% Band A Subsidy band Other 13% Certificate III + Other 90% Trainee 98% Band A Subsidy band Apprentice Private 59% Apprentice 92% 2% TAFE 37% Other 8% Certificate I-II Qualification level 4% Other 100% Trainee Trainee Provider type 62% 28% Apprentice Apprentice All industries Learn Local Private 19% Band B 34% Band C Band D 30% Band E 8% 9% 0% Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 99 Table 10.2: Top five occupations ranked by 2013 enrolments, Table 10.3: Top five courses ranked by 2013 enrolments, government subsidised, 2012–2013 government subsidised, 2012–2013 Occupation 2012 2013 Course 2012 2013 Child Carers 25,600 30,100 15,800 18,700 Aged and Disabled Carers Welfare Support Workers 16,900 9,200 20,400 10,600 Certificate III In Children's Services Diploma of Children's Services (Early Childhood Education and Care) Certificate III in Aged Care 9,100 8,700 10,400 10,200 Enrolled and Mothercraft Nurses 7,200 7,600 Diploma of Nursing (Enrolled Division 2 Nursing) 6,100 7,200 Welfare, Recreation and Community Arts Employees 3,800 3,900 Certificate III in Home and Community Care 4,400 5,600 Industry Overview The Health Care and Social Assistance industry contributed an estimated $22.9 billion to the Victorian economy in 2012-13, around 7 per cent of Victoria's total gross value added. Over the five years to June 2013, this represents an average annual growth of 7 per cent.106 High demand for care from an ageing population (often with marked regional differences), alongside associated increases in chronic conditions and disability, is increasing the demand for both health care and community services roles. This is compounded by the demand for care within the community as people elect to stay in their homes, rather than residential care, increasing the need for workforce in all regions, but also changing the mix of skills required from this workforce. Government reforms, designed to move the industry towards a client-led model of funding and care are resulting in greater emphasis on generalist employees with backup from specialists. This places additional requirements on the VET sector for both qualification and skills sets, as well as the need for greater pathways between VET and higher education. Approximately 343,900 people were employed in Victoria's Health Care and Social Assistance industry, equating to around 12 per cent of all employment in Victoria. The industry has seen employment grow by around 28 per cent over the last five years, equating to around 74,400 employees. The Medical Services sub-sector accounts for the largest proportion of industry employment, 34 per cent of the total. This is followed by the Hospitals sector, with 28 per cent of employment in the industry. Figure 10.2: Share of employment by industry sub-sector, 2012–13 Source: Centre of Policy Studies, Monash University (2013) Labour Force Projections 106 There were an estimated 25,200 businesses operating in Victoria's Health Care and Social Assistance industry, 5 per cent of all businesses across the state. Health Care and Social Assistance has a high concentration of small businesses (52 per cent sole traders; 43 per cent employing 1-19 employees). Four per cent of businesses employed between 20 to 199 employees. Australian Bureau of Statistics (2013) Australian National Accounts: State Accounts, CT NO: 5220.0 100 Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 The highest concentration of businesses within the Health Care and Social Assistance industry was in the Medical and Other Health Care Services sub-sector (88 per cent of all businesses) and the Social Assistance Services sector (7 per cent of all businesses). Forty-nine per cent of businesses have a turnover of $200,000 or more per annum. This is higher than the average across all industries at 36 per cent.107 The outlook over the next five years for Health Care and Social Assistance is for employment to continue to grow, increasing by approximately 9 per cent (or 29,400 jobs).108 The ‘Training Alignment’ section of this industry profile explores how the training market is tracking against skills needs. Training Alignment Summary 2013 Training Alignment an estimated Industry needs Specialised and/or skill shortage occupations Skills needs in regions Employer and student needs + 21,600 employees per year required over the five years to 2017-18 38% 87,300 vocational training enrolments in 2013 87% of enrolments in courses aligned to specialised occupations of enrolments in courses aligned to occupations experiencing skills shortage The top three employing regions accounted for These three regions accounted for 53% of industry employment 49% of industry enrolments in 2013 80% 81% of industry employers were satisfied with the VET system of students reported job-related benefits from VET Alignment to industry needs This section explores the alignment between vocational training and industry needs by comparing projected annual employment needs in Health Care and Social Assistance with 2013 enrolment levels for qualifications aligned to the industry. Table 9.4 highlights the top ten employing occupations109 in the Health Care and Social Assistance industry. Forecasts presented in the table estimate average annual employment needs for this industry. Average annual employment needs include employment growth or decline and replacement demand 110 by occupation for the next five years. 107 Over the next five years, average annual employment needs for Heath Care and Social Assistance is expected to be approximately 21,600. The three largest occupations by employment size include Registered Nurses, Aged and Disabled Carers and Receptionists. Average annual employment needs over the next five years within Health Care and Social Assistance for these occupations are: 2,640 per annum for Registered Nurses; 1,630 per annum for Aged and Disabled Carers; and 1,090 per annum for Receptionists. Australian Bureau of Statistics (2012) Counts of Australian Businesses, including Entries and Exits, Jun 2008 to Jun 2012, CT NO: 8165.0 108 Centre of Policy Studies, Monash University (2013) Labour Force Projections 109 Occupations are listed at the ABS 4-digit ANZSCO Unit Group level. 110 Forecast employment growth or decline is the expected change in the number of jobs within an occupation year to year. The period presented in the table from 2012-13 to 2017-18. Replacement demand is the number of existing workers that are forecast to leave the occupation through retirement, moving into a different industry or occupation or moving interstate etc. that require replacing to meet existing employment needs. Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 101 Table 10.4: Top ten occupations by employment, 2012–2013, and associated enrolments, 2013 2012-13 Employment Occupation Employment Growth to 2017-18 5-yr Average Annual Employment Needs VET Enrolments 2013 Registered Nurses 54,050 4,450 2,640 - Aged and Disabled Carers 29,130 4,760 1,630 20,400 Receptionists 22,900 1,500 1,090 1,000 Child Carers 19,480 -1,690 440 30,100 Nursing Support Employees Generalist Medical Practitioners 15,940 -100 510 3,200 14,040 1,450 980 - Kitchenhands 7,500 260 440 * Welfare Support Workers 6,170 360 360 10,600 Social Employees 6,070 1,710 770 - Medical Technicians 5,750 990 540 1,400 Source: Centre of Policy Studies, Monash University (2013) Labour Force Projections, SVTS Note: Occupations aligned to VET qualifications are highlighted in blue. *VET qualifications not directly aligned to Health Care and Social Assistance and therefore outside the scope of this chapter. When comparing projected annual employment needs with 2013 enrolment levels, a sense of alignment between government subsidised training delivery and industry requirements may be established. Based on vocational training enrolment figures for 2013, enrolments for courses related to Aged and Disabled Carers, Receptionists, Child Carers, Nursing Support Workers, Welfare Support Workers and Medical Technicians appear to be well-placed to meet expected average annual employment needs, and in some cases, surpass industry needs. Alignment to specialised and/or in shortage occupations and skill needs Vocational training related to occupations identified as specialised or experiencing skill shortages that enhance the productive capacity of the Victorian economy are a high priority for government investment. This section highlights training alignment to areas of strategic skill needs for the Health Care and Social Assistance industry, including an analysis of enrolments in areas of identified skill shortages or aligned to specialised occupations111. Identified skills shortages in Health Care and Social Assistance for 2013 include: 111 Child Care Centre Manager Health Information Manager Sonographer Physiotherapist Registered Nurse Enrolled Nurse Community Worker Disability Services Officer Residential Care Officer Aged or Disabled Carer Welfare Centre Manager Medical Diagnostic Radiographer Occupational Therapist Midwife Welfare Worker Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Health Worker Family Support Worker Child Care Worker Clinical Coder In 2013, there were a total of 79,600 enrolments related to specialised occupations or those experiencing skills shortages within the Health Care and Social Assistance industry, 91 per cent of total training in the industry. This is significantly above the proportion of enrolments aligned to specialised or in shortage occupations across all industry training (41 per cent). DEECD’s 2013 listing of Victorian skills shortages is at the 6-digit ABS ANZSCO occupation level. 102 Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 Table 10.5: Enrolments related to specialised and/or in shortage occupations, government subsidised, 2008–2013 Specialised / in shortage enrolments Year-on-year % change Year-on-year % change (all industries) 2008 27,600 - 2009 32,700 19% 12% 2010 41,700 27% 13% 2011 55,300 33% 18% 2012 70,300 27% 19% 2013 79,600 13% 14% Alignment to skills needs in regions This section considers training alignment with skills needs in regions by comparing the proportion of industry training within each region with the proportion of regional employment in Health Care and Social Assistance. In metropolitan Melbourne, Health Care and Social Services industry businesses are broadly spread throughout the city and suburbs, reflecting the population service delivery nature of the industry. Similarly, in regional Victoria, most of the business establishments are in the 10 largest population centres including Geelong, Bendigo and Ballarat.112 Seventy-three per cent of employment in the Health Care and Social Assistance industry is located within Metropolitan Melbourne, with 27 per cent located in regional Victoria. The highest concentration of employment within the Health Care and Social Assistance industry in Victoria is within Inner Metro (19 per cent), Eastern Metro (18 per cent), and Southern Metro (16 per cent) regions.113 Figure 10.3: Regional share of employment and enrolments Source: ABS (2011) Census of Population and Housing, SVTS 112 113 Southern Metropolitan has the largest number of enrolments with 18,000 in 2013 (21 per cent of training delivery). In metropolitan Melbourne, where most of the industry employment is concentrated, the alignment of training delivery to regional needs is mixed. The Western and Southern Metro areas have significantly higher proportions of enrolments than employment, whereas Eastern Metropolitan has a significantly lower proportion of enrolment than employment. This may indicate opportunities for improved alignment between training delivery and regional needs in the metropolitan areas. Training delivery and employment appear to be more closely aligned in regional Victoria. DSDBI (2012) Business location in Victoria: A decade of change Regional distribution data are estimates only based on ABS (2011) Census of Population and Housing Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 103 Table 10.6: Enrolments by region, ranked by 2013 enrolments, government subsidised, 2008–2013 Region Southern Metropolitan 2008 4,600 2009 5,600 2010 7,200 2011 11,400 2012 15,200 2013 18,000 Inner Metropolitan 4,800 4,900 6,900 9,500 12,300 15,300 Western Metropolitan 1,700 2,200 3,400 5,900 8,900 12,700 Northern Metropolitan 2,600 4,000 4,800 6,500 9,200 9,600 Eastern Metropolitan 3,500 4,400 6,600 8,500 9,400 9,400 Hume 2,500 3,500 3,700 3,600 4,400 5,500 Geelong and Surrounds 1,900 2,800 3,400 4,600 5,500 5,000 Gippsland 1,700 2,200 2,500 2,500 3,100 2,600 Loddon Mallee South 1,100 1,400 1,900 2,000 2,300 2,100 Central Highlands 1,200 1,400 1,500 1,700 2,000 2,000 Loddon Mallee North 800 1,000 1,100 1,300 1,500 1,800 Great South Coast 900 1,100 950 1,200 1,200 1,300 Wimmera Southern Mallee 450 500 550 450 550 550 Note that regional totals will be greater than total industry enrolments due to some enrolments falling within more than one region of training delivery. Figure 10.4: Regional share of enrolments, 2008 and 2013 Alignment to employers and students: Employer satisfaction and student outcomes Training alignment in this section focuses on the degree of satisfaction with training provision and employment outcomes by both employers and students. Drawing on results from the NCVER Student Outcomes Survey 2012 and Survey of Employers' Use and Views of the VET System 2013 114 insights can be gained on the performance of the VET system in meeting the needs of the Health Care and Social Assistance industry. Employers in the Health Care and Social Assistance industry are seeking units of competency and qualifications that complement workforce development priorities, especially around working in autonomous environments, promoting skills portability across aligned sectors and assisting to improve management and leadership capability across the industry. Training providers need to maintain the currency of their delivery and the skills of training staff to meet changing needs of the sector. Employers from the Health Care and Social Assistance industry were satisfied overall with the VET system, with 80 per cent of employers stating that they were satisfied. This is higher than the all industry average (73 per cent). 114 Note: Employer satisfaction and student outcomes data for this industry is indicative only. Due to small sample sizes at the State level, data for individual industries is presented at national level. Employer satisfaction and student outcomes data for “All industries” is at Victorian level. 104 Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 Students who report a job-related benefit following completion of their training qualification were able to get a job, change jobs, get promoted, expand or set-up their business. Within the Health Care and Social Assistance industry 81 per cent of students reported job-related benefits from their training. This is higher than the all industry average (72 per cent). Figure 10.5: Student and employers outcomes of vocational training Health Care and Social Assistance Satisfied Employers satisfied with VET system Students reporting jobrelated benefit from VET Satisfied Not-Satisfied 80% Benefit All- industry comparison 20% Employers satisfied with VET system 19% Students reporting jobrelated benefit from VET No Benefit 81% Not-Satisfied 73% Benefit 72% 27% No Benefit 28% Source: NCVER Survey of Employers' Use and Views of the VET System 2013 and NCVER Student Outcomes Survey 2012 Certain population groups face barriers to participation in education, training and the workforce. This section considers the proportion of industry training undertaken by different learner groups, and to what extent they are represented in Health Care and Social Assistance training when compared with all-industry averages. Most student groups were relatively well represented in Health Care and Social Assistance training when compared to all industry averages. Culturally and Linguistically Diverse (CALD) students comprised 37 per cent of enrolments for this industry, more than the average across all industries of 27 per cent. Female students comprised 85 per cent of enrolments for the Health Care and Social Assistance industry, significantly above the average across all industries (44 per cent). Unemployed students accounted for 35 per cent of enrolments for this industry, which was higher than the all industry average (25 per cent). Students aged 25 years and older made up 70 per cent of enrolments for this industry, also above the average across all industries (56 per cent). Figure 10.6: Proportion of enrolments by student group, government subsidised, 2013 Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 105 Information Media and Telecommunications Information Media and Telecommunications is engaged in creating, enhancing and storing information products in media that allows for their dissemination; transmitting information products using analogue and digital signals and/or operating the infrastructure to enable the transmission and storage of information and information products. Training Snapshot The total number of government subsidised enrolments related to the Information, Media and Telecommunications (IMT) industry was 3,300 in 2013, a decline of 15 per cent when compared with 2012. This decline may have been driven in part by the current economic climate. There were 1,700 TAFE fee for service enrolments in 2013. There were 2,100 reported completions in IMT qualifications in 2013. Table 11.1: Vocational training enrolments and completions, year on year changes, 2008–2013 Information, Media and Telecoms 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Government subsidised enrolments 2,100 3,000 3,500 3,800 3,900 3,300 Year-on-year % change 42% 16% 8% 3% -15% Year-on-year % change (all industries) 3% 18% 31% 14% -11% TAFE fee for service enrolments 600 1,700 2,300 2,400 2,100 1,700 Year-on-year % change 187% 36% 2% -11% -20% Year-on-year % change (all industries) 15% 3% 0% 18% -9% Completions 650 450 1,000 1,500 2,200 2,100 Year-on-year % change -31% 138% 49% 40% -4% Year-on-year % change (all industries) 5% 19% 33% 29% -15% Note: all enrolment data is government subsidised, unless otherwise stated. Completions data includes all reported government subsidised and fee for service activity by all providers (TAFE and non-TAFE). TAFE Institutes accounted for a majority of training delivery in 2013, 81 per cent of government subsidised enrolments. Private training providers accounted for 17 per cent of IMT training delivery, while Learn Local provision in this industry comprised 2 per cent of 2013 enrolments. Traineeships accounted for a relatively low proportion of IMT training in 2013 when compared with the average across all industries, 8 per cent of enrolments compared with an average of 13 per cent. There were no IMT apprenticeships in 2013. In 2013, the highest concentrations of enrolments were in the Diploma of Specialist Make-up Services, the Certificate IV in Sound Production and the Diploma of Library and Information Services. The top ten courses in the industry accounted for 69 per cent of all enrolments in 2013. Figure 11.1: Share of industry enrolments compared against all industries, 2013 Information Media and Telecommunications industry Learn Local TAFE Training Dashboard Provider type 2% 81% 17% Provider type 4% Apprentice 0% Trainee 8% 6% Trainee Band B Band C 33% 87% Certificate I-II Qualification level Band D 45% Certificate III + 10% 90% Band A Subsidy band Other 13% Certificate III + Other 90% Trainee 94% 22% 10% Other 92% Certificate I-II Qualification level Apprentice Private 59% Apprentice 100% Trainee TAFE 37% Other Subsidy band 0% 106 All industries Learn Local Private 19% Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 Band B 34% Band C Band D 30% Band E 8% 9% Table 11.2: Top five occupations ranked by 2013 enrolments, Table 11.3: Top five courses ranked by 2013 enrolments, government subsidised, 2012–2013 government subsidised, 2012–2013 Occupation 2012 2013 Performing Arts Technicians Telecommunications Trades Employees Other Miscellaneous Clerical and 5,200 9,200 7,600 6,500 Administrative Workers Gallery, Library and Museum Technicians Library Assistants 9,000 5,800 18,500 1,300 5,700 2,900 Course Diploma of Specialist Make-up Services Certificate IV in Sound Production Diploma of Library and Information Services Advanced Diploma of Screen and Media Diploma of Screen and Media 2012 2013 350 300 450 300 10 250 250 300 250 250 Industry Overview The IMT industry contributed an estimated $11.3 billion to the Victorian economy in 2012–13, around 4 per cent of Victoria's total gross value added. Over the five years to June 2013, this represented an average annual growth of 1 per cent.115 Nationally, Australia has the 15th largest IMT market globally and the 5th largest in the Asia Pacific region. Twenty-nine per cent of IMT businesses have turnover of $200,000 or more per annum. This is lower than the average across all industries at 36 per cent.116 Approximately 61,800 people were employed in Victoria's Information Media and Telecommunications industry in 2012–13, equating to approximately 2 per cent of all employment in Victoria. The Telecommunications Services sub-sector accounted for the largest proportion of industry employment in 2012–13, 41 per cent of the total. This was followed by the Publishing sub-sector, with 21 per cent of employment in the industry. The industry has seen relatively low employment growth of approximately 1 per cent over the last five years, equating to around 500 employees. The outlook over the next five years for Information Media and Telecommunications is for employment to grow more strongly, increasing by approximately 9 per cent (or 5,300 jobs).117 Figure 11.2: Share of employment by industry sub-sector, 2012–13 Telecommunications Services 6% Publishing 9% 9% 41% Motion Picture and Sound Recording Activities Broadcasting 13% Library and Other Information Services Internet, Web and Data Services 21% Source: Centre of Policy Studies, Monash University (2013) Labour Force Projections 115 The IMT industry is undergoing technology driven change with the transition to digital content (e.g. land line to wireless, paper to online)118. While in recent years the industry has been weaker, output and business trends indicate improved performance. Continued growth in use of devices such as Australian Bureau of Statistics (2013) Australian National Accounts: State Accounts, CT NO: 5220.0 116 Australian Bureau of Statistics (2012) Counts of Australian Businesses, including Entries and Exits, Jun 2008 to Jun 2012, CT NO: 8165.0 117 Centre of Policy Studies, Monash University (2013) Labour Force Projections Department of State Development, Business and Innovation (DSDBI) (2013) Information Media and Telecommunications – Services Sector Industry Analysis Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 107 118 smartphones and tablets and related applications and services as well as the expansion of key digital economy infrastructure such as 4G mobile networks and the National Broadband Network (NBN) are also defining the continued transformation within the industry119. At the same time, growth in the digital economy continues, with increases in levels of internet access, frequency of internet use and growth in the intensity of online engagement.120 This increased engagement with the digital economy continues to shape and challenge existing business models in the face of changing consumer communications and media preferences and continues to put pressure on the training market to maintain currency in products and services.121 The ‘Training Alignment’ section of this industry profile explores how the training market is tracking against skills needs. Training Alignment Training Alignment Summary 2013 an estimated Industry needs Specialised and/or skill shortage occupations Skills needs in regions Employer and student needs + 4,100 employees per year required over the five years to 2017-18 5% 3,300 vocational training enrolments in 2013 16% of enrolments in courses aligned to specialised occupations of enrolments in courses aligned to occupations experiencing skills shortage The top three employing regions accounted for These three regions accounted for 80% of industry employment 59% of industry enrolments in 2013 50% 64% of industry employers were satisfied with the VET system of students reported job-related benefits from VET Alignment to industry needs This section explores the alignment between vocational training and industry needs by comparing projected annual employment needs in Information Media and Telecommunications with 2013 enrolment levels for qualifications aligned to the industry. Table 11.4 highlights the top ten employing occupations122 in the IMT industry. Forecasts presented in the table estimate average annual employment needs for this industry. Average annual employment needs include employment growth or decline and replacement demand123 by occupation for the next five years. 119 Over the next five years, average annual employment needs for the Information, Media and Telecommunications industry are expected to be approximately 4,100 per year. The top three largest occupations by employment size included Telecommunications Trades, Journalists and Other Writers and Telecommunications Engineering Professionals. Projected average annual employment needs over the next five years within IMT for these occupations are: 220 per annum for Telecommunications Trades; 350 per annum for Journalists and Other Writers; and 220 per annum for Telecommunications Engineering Professionals. Department of Communications (2014) Communications Report, 2012-13 Department of Communications (2014) Communications Report, 2012-13 121 Department of Communications (2014) Communications Report, 2012-13 122 Occupations are listed at the ABS 4-digit ANZSCO Unit Group level. 123 Forecast employment growth or decline is the expected change in the number of jobs within an occupation year to year. The period presented in the table from 2012-13 to 2017-18. Replacement demand is the number of existing workers that are forecast to leave the occupation through retirement, moving into a different industry or occupation or moving interstate etc. that require replacing to meet existing employment needs. 108 Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 120 Table 11.4: Top ten occupations by employment, 2012–2013, and associated enrolments, 2013 Occupation Telecommunications Trades Employees 2012-13 employment Employment growth to 2017-18 5-yr average annual employment needs VET enrolments 2013 3,450 -240 220 350 Journalists and Other Writers 3,210 500 350 * Telecoms Engineering Professionals 2,690 500 220 - Inquiry Clerks 2,510 210 130 - Advertising and Sales Managers 1,830 220 100 - Librarians 1,740 -90 150 - Film, TV, Radio and Stage Directors 1,730 200 200 * ICT Managers 1,700 80 80 - Sales Representatives 1,650 100 70 * Graphic and Web Designers 1,580 240 100 * Source: Centre of Policy Studies, Monash University (2013) Labour Force Projections, SVTS Note: Occupations aligned to VET qualifications are highlighted in blue. *VET qualifications not directly aligned to Information Media and Telecommunications and therefore outside the scope of this chapter. When comparing projected annual employment needs with 2013 enrolment levels, some broad messages can be established regarding the alignment between government subsidised enrolments in IMT training and industry requirements. Current enrolment levels of 350 in 2013 levels would indicate that training delivery aligned to the occupation Telecommunications Trades Worker appear to be well-placed to meet projected average annual employment needs of 220 per annum through to 2017–18. Alignment to specialised and/or in shortage occupations and skill needs Vocational training related to occupations identified as specialised or experiencing skill shortages and that enhances the productive capacity of the Victorian economy is a high priority for government investment. This section highlights training alignment to areas of strategic skill need for the Information Media and Telecommunications industry, including an analysis of enrolments in areas of identified skill shortages or aligned to specialised occupations124. 124 Telecommunications Technical Officers are identified as both a specialised occupation and an experiencing skills shortages in Victoria. This occupation has experienced recent high growth, which is expected to continue. Moreover, the roll-out of the NBN is also expected to increase demand for this occupation.125 Employment trends in this occupation will be watched closely over 2014 with the changing federal policy environment. Cablers and Telecommunications Lineseworkers are also identified as both occupations in skills shortage and specialised occupations. A broader project and integrated solutions management skill set is required by the whole IMT industry to enable the identification, analysis and implementation of new technologies and will be a critical area of growing skills need.126 Overall, changes in the industry are fast and constant, making it difficult for training courses to reflect current industry skills needs. It will be necessary to continue to facilitate stronger engagement between training providers and industry to align training delivery to workforce needs, particularly in relation to specialist skills, and to promote innovative and sustainable delivery models to enhance student retention127. Improving completion rates for VET qualifications in IMT remains a challenge, as does recruiting suitably-qualified VET practitioners to maintain quality in training delivery. DEECD’s 2013 listing of Victorian skills shortages is at the 6-digit ABS ANZSCO occupation level. 125 2013 IBSA Environmental Scan of the Information and Communications Technology Industry; DEECD Skills analysis tool/Australian Workforce and Productivity Agency 126 127 Allen Consulting Group (2012) The Future of Skills in Services in Victoria, report to DSDBI Innovation & Business Skills Australia (2013) E-scan 2013 ICT Industry Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 109 Identified skills shortages in Information Media and Telecommunications for 2013 include: Telecommunications Technical Officer or Technologist Cabler (Data and Telecommunications) Telecommunications Linesworker Skill shortage occupations also relevant to Information Media and Telecommunications: Vocational Education Teacher In 2013, there were a total of 550 enrolments aligned to specialised or in shortage occupations within the IMT industry, 16 per cent of total industry training. This is below the proportion of enrolments aligned to specialised or in shortage occupations across all industry training (41 per cent). Table 11.5: Enrolments related to specialised and/or in shortage occupations, government subsidised, 2008–2013 2008 200 - Specialised / in shortage enrolments Year-on-year % change Year-on-year % change (all industries) 2009 600 177% 12% 2010 700 18% 13% 2011 500 -29% 18% 2012 500 7% 19% 2013 550 2% 14% Alignment to skills needs in regions This section considers training alignment with skills needs in regions by comparing the proportion of industry training within each region with the proportion of regional employment in Information Media and Telecommunications. Eighty-five per cent of IMT industry employment is located within metropolitan Melbourne, with 15 per cent in regional Victoria. In regional Victoria, in the five years to 2006-11 there were large decreases in the number of IMT business establishments in the north, north western and eastern regions of the state, and strong increases in regional centres and the peri-urban areas of Melbourne.128 The highest concentration of employment within the IMT industry in Victoria was within the Inner Metropolitan (59 per cent), Eastern Metropolitan (14 per cent), and Southern Metropolitan (8 per cent) regions.129 Figure 11.3: Regional share of employment and enrolments Employment (% of Total) Enrolments (% of Total) 59% 39% 14% 2% Geelong & Surrounds 14%12% 1% 3% Great South Coast 2% 1% 2% 2% 0% 0% Gippsland Central Wimmera Highlands Southern Mallee 2% 1% 1% 0% 2% 1% Hume Loddon Mallee North Loddon Mallee South 11% 8% 9% 4% Eastern Metro 6% Northern Southern Western Metro Metro Metro Source: ABS (2011) Census of Population and Housing, SVTS 128 DSDBI (2012) Business location in Victoria: A decade of change 129 Regional Distribution are estimates only based on ABS (2011) Census of Population and Housing 110 4% Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 Inner Metro Inner Metropolitan Melbourne had the largest number of enrolments with 1,300 in 2013, in line with its status as the largest employer in this industry Geelong and Surrounds accounts for a relatively high proportion of training in this industry when compared with its share of employment – 14 per cent compared with 2 per cent. Table 11.6: Enrolments by region, ranked by 2013 enrolments, government subsidised, 2008–2013 Region 2008 650 2009 700 2010 1,100 2011 1,200 2012 1,400 2013 1,300 20 40 90 100 300 450 Eastern Metropolitan 600 850 700 750 650 400 Northern Metropolitan 200 400 450 350 450 350 Southern Metropolitan 100 200 350 450 350 300 Western Metropolitan 200 150 200 200 350 200 Great South Coast 30 100 100 80 80 100 Central Highlands 70 50 90 100 70 50 Hume 70 80 70 50 70 30 Loddon Mallee South Inner Metropolitan Geelong and Surrounds 10 10 30 30 60 30 Gippsland - 60 70 40 40 30 Loddon Mallee North - 10 10 10 20 10 20 10 Wimmera Southern Mallee Note that regional totals will be greater than total industry enrolments due to some enrolments falling within more than one region of training delivery. Figure 11.4: Regional share of enrolments, 2008 and 2013 The following case study gives an example of DEECD’s work in bringing together training providers and employers in areas of skills needs. Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 111 Case Study Workers in Transition Program – The Lonely Planet DEECD’s Workers in Transition (WiT) Program works with businesses facing closures or restructuring, to provide retrenched staff with tailored training and a qualification to assist them in the transition to new employment. It gives redundant workers more favourable access to a funded training place regardless of eligibility for the Victorian Training Guarantee (VTG) in order to support their reskilling as they transition to new employment. Issues DEECD Market Facilitation Outcomes In July 2013, Lonely Planet announced a number of redundancies as a result of a restructuring of the company's global operations. In response, DEECD, together with the Department of State Development, Business and Innovation (DSDBI) met with company management and offered assistance under the WiT program. There have been a number of queries from individuals focusing on specific courses and queries about entitlement under the program, indicating positive engagements with the WiT program. DEECD helped establish channels between employers and providers to support their employees facing redundancies, advising clients about the training market and how to engage with the market more effectively and efficiently. Alignment to employers and students: Employer satisfaction and student outcomes This section focuses on the degree of satisfaction with training provision and employment outcomes by both employers and students. Drawing on results from the NCVER Student Outcomes Survey 2012 and Survey of Employers' Use and Views of the VET System 2013130, insights can be gained on the performance of the VET system in meeting the needs of the Information, Media and Telecommunications industry. Employers in the IMT industry were somewhat satisfied overall with the VET system, with 50 per cent of employers stating that they were satisfied. This is, however, significantly lower than the all-industry average of 73 per cent. This reinforces the requirement for greater engagement between employers and the training market to ensure currency of content, quality service delivery and innovative delivery models. DEECD will continue to monitor the training market in 2014, to ensure that training provision is aligned to employer needs. Students who reported a job-related benefit following completion of their training qualification were able to get a job, change jobs, get promoted, expand or set-up their business. Within the IMT industry 64 per cent of students reported job-related benefits from their training. Again, this was lower when compared to the all industry average (72 per cent). Figure 11.5: Student and employer outcomes of vocational training Information Media and Telecommunications Satisfied Employers satisfied with VET system Students reporting jobrelated benefit from VET 64% Satisfied Not-Satisfied 50% Benefit All- industry comparison 50% No Benefit 36% Employers satisfied with VET system Students reporting jobrelated benefit from VET Not-Satisfied 73% Benefit 72% 27% No Benefit 28% Source: NCVER Survey of Employers' Use and Views of the VET System 2013 and NCVER Student Outcomes Survey 2012 Certain population groups face barriers to participation in education, training and the workforce. This section considers the proportion of industry training undertaken by different learner groups, and to what extent they are represented in Information, Media and Telecommunications training when compared with all-industry averages. In 2013, Culturally and Linguistically Divers (CALD) students and those aged 25 and above were relatively under-represented in IMT industry training when compared with all-industry averages. 130 Note: Employer satisfaction and student outcomes data for this industry is indicative only. Due to small sample sizes at the State level, data for individual industries is presented at national level. Employer satisfaction and student outcomes data for “All industries” is at Victorian level. 112 Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 CALD students comprised 16 per cent of enrolments for this industry, significantly less than the average across all industries of 27 per cent. Students aged 25 years and older made up 30 per cent of enrolments for this industry, compared with an all-industry average of 56 per cent. Figure 11.6: Enrolments by student group, government subsidised, 2013 Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 113 Manufacturing Manufacturing covers the physical or chemical transformation of materials, substances or components into new products drawn from raw materials that are products of Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Mining, or products of other Manufacturing units. Training Snapshot The total number of government subsidised enrolments related to Manufacturing was 43,500 in 2013. This was an increase of 4 per cent on 2012. In contrast, TAFE fee for service enrolments, which accounted for 13 per cent of reported training delivery in Manufacturing in 2013, have fallen since 2012. In 2013, the total number of completions for courses aligned to the Manufacturing industry was 15,500, a 14 per cent increase since 2012. Table 12.1: Vocational training enrolments and completions, year on year changes, 2008-2013 Manufacturing 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 27,000 23,500 27,200 33,700 41,700 43,500 Year-on-year % change - -13% 16% 24% 24% 4% Year-on-year % change (all industries) - 3% 18% 31% 14% -11% 7,200 6,400 6,300 5,500 6,600 6,500 Year-on-year % change - -12% -2% -12% 20% -3% Year-on-year % change (all industries) - 15% 3% 0% 18% -9% 7,300 7,100 6,900 10,200 13,600 15,500 - -3% -3% 48% 33% 14% Government subsidised enrolments TAFE fee for service enrolments Completions Year-on-year % change Year-on-year % change (all industries) 5% 19% 33% 29% -15% Note: all enrolment data is government subsidised, unless otherwise stated. Completions data includes all reported government subsidised and fee for service activity by all providers (TAFE and non-TAFE). Private training providers delivered a majority of industry training in 2013, higher than the average of 59 per cent across all industries. Learn Local provision in this industry is comparatively low. At 15 per cent, apprenticeship enrolments were higher for Manufacturing training compared to the all industry average. Manufacturing also reported a higher proportion of trainee enrolments (31 per cent) compared to the average across all industries (13 per cent). Figure 12.1: Share of industry enrolments compared against all industries, 2013 Manufacturing industry Learn Local Provider type TAFE All industries Learn Local Private Provider type 68% 32% 4% TAFE Private 37% 59% Training Dashboard 0% Apprentice Apprentice 15% 30% Trainee 26% Band B Band C 57% 87% Certificate I-II Qualification level 91% Band D Band E 6% 10% 90% 19% 0% 114 Certificate III + 10% Band A Subsidy band Other 13% Certificate III + Other 90% Trainee 70% 9% Band A Subsidy band 10% Other Certificate I-II Qualification level Apprentice 85% Trainee Trainee Apprentice Other Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 Band B 34% Band C Band D 30% Band E 8% 9% Table 12.3: Top five occupations ranked by 2013 enrolments, government subsidised, 2012–2013 Table 12.2: Top five courses ranked by 2013 enrolments, government subsidised, 2012–2013 Course 2013 Occupation 2012 2013 10 4,500 Engineering Production Workers 8,100 13,500 Certificate III in Process Manufacturing Certificate III in Competitive Systems and Practices Certificate IV in Competitive Manufacturing 9,600 4,500 Other Factory Process Workers 9,800 5,100 - 3,600 3,900 4,700 5,200 3,300 Food and Drink Factory Workers Meat Boners and Slicers, and Slaughterers 3,000 2,600 Certificate III in Food Processing 1,500 2,700 Sheetmetal Trades Workers 2,400 2,500 Certificate IV in Competitive Systems and Practices 2012 Industry Overview Manufacturing is a key part of the Victorian economy. It contributed an estimated $25.6 billion to the economy in 2012-13, around 8 per cent of Victoria's total gross value added.131 Despite a recent decline of 1 per cent, the industry remains the third largest contributor in Victoria. There are an estimated 24,900 businesses operating in Victoria's Manufacturing industry, 5 per cent of all businesses across the state. Manufacturing has a high concentration of small businesses (41 per cent sole traders; 47 per cent employing 1-19 employees). Only 1 per cent of businesses employ over 200 employees.132 The industry has a higher than average number of businesses (54 per cent) with a turnover of $200,000 or more per annum, compared to the average across all industries of 36 per cent.133 Manufacturing is also the third largest employing industry in Victoria. Approximately 296,900 people are employed in Victoria's Manufacturing industry, equating to about 10 per cent of all employment in Victoria.134 However, the industry has seen an employment decline of approximately 8 per cent over the last five years, a loss of around 26,100 employees. In 2013, the largest proportion of Manufacturing employment was concentrated in the Food Product Manufacturing sub-sector (22 per cent), followed by the Transport Equipment Manufacturing subsector, which accounted for 13 per cent of industry employment. Figure 12.2: Share of employment by industry sub-sector, 2012–13 Source: Centre of Policy Studies, Monash University (2013) Labour Force Projections Key drivers of changing skills and training needs The Manufacturing industry, whilst experiencing declining trends in output and employment over recent years, remains central to the Victorian economy. Lately, it has been under significant pressure from a range 131 Australian Bureau of Statistics (2013) Australian National Accounts: State Accounts, CT NO: 5220.0 Australian Bureau of Statistics (2012) Counts of Australian Businesses, including Entries and Exits, Jun 2008 to Jun 2012, CT NO: 8165.0 133 Australian Bureau of Statistics (2012) Counts of Australian Businesses, including Entries and Exits, Jun 2008 to Jun 2012, CT NO: 8165.0 134 Centre of Policy Studies, Monash University (2013) Labour Force Projections Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 115 132 of macroeconomic factors, including a volatile Australian dollar and increased international competition. Despite the challenges faced by the industry, however, continued opportunities exist in sectors such as food processing while emerging opportunities have been identified in establishing niche areas in knowledgeintensive manufacturing (for example, pharmaceuticals). However, capitalising on such opportunities will require a highly skilled workforce and stellar management systems. Industry research135 has identified a number of key change drivers influencing industry skills requirements: The significant structural change in the industry, as resources shift to take advantage of emerging opportunities in areas of upstream processing, suppliers of machinery and equipment and in niche areas, such as knowledge-intensive manufacturing. A requirement for strong leadership to help realise and capitalise on these opportunities, including the need for better management skills. The challenging overall economic environment, which influences the performance of this industry, negatively impacting on employment and output. In particular, the strong Australian dollar has increased pressure on the industry’s international competitiveness and production costs. This has been further aggravated by relatively slow growth in labour productivity. Technological advancement in the industry is leading to evolving job roles which require employees to have higher and/or greater breadth of skills and use of technology. In order to continue to be a global competitor, the industry needs a more flexible workforce, and upskilling and cross skilling is a high priority for this industry. Consequently, it is important to promote a workplace culture that supports innovation and growth. Strong foundation skills are essential for achieving this. The Manufacturing workforce is also ageing, leading to increasing demands for new, skilled recruits. These drivers have prompted a number of changes to training delivery within the industry and the Training Alignment section of this industry profile explores how the training market is tracking against skills needs. Case Study Boat Building Training Project DEECD’s $6 million initiative, the Industry in Transition and Specialist Training Initiative (ITSTI), has introduced a project to develop a model to support boat building training delivery. The impetus for this project, the interventions and the outcomes are outlined as follows: Issues DEECD Market Facilitation Outcomes In recent years, maintaining training in boating construction in Victoria has been difficult due to falling enrolment numbers and high infrastructure and delivery costs. Victoria University (the only RTO in Victoria approved to deliver the Certificate III in Marine Craft Construction) ceased training delivery in 2012. This course is a pathway to employment for Shipwrights, a vital occupation within the boating industry. In response to the cessation, DEECD built channels between the Boating Industry Association of Victoria (BIAV) and providers and provided information to advise clients of the training market on how to engage with the market more effectively and efficiently. These efforts sought to improve the alignment between training delivery and employment outcomes pursued by the boating industry. Delivery of the Certificate III in Marine Craft Construction by a Victorian TAFE institute Delivery of the Certificate III in Marine Craft Construction by an interstate TAFE institute Alternative trade training programs in relevant areas by a Victorian TAFE institute or private RTO Workplace- and campusbased delivery by a TAFE institute/RTO of an alternative trade training program with some specialisation in marine craft construction Overseas delivery of the New Zealand National Certificate in Boat Building The Victorian Government will continue to work with BIAV, employers and training providers to ensure a sustainable training response is implemented to support the boating industry. 135 Manufacturing Skills Australia (2012 and 2013) Environmental Scans; Deloitte Access Economics (2012) ITAB Market Effectiveness Report; IBIS World (2012 and 2013) Various Reports; Department of Innovation, Industry, Science and Research (2010) Various Reports. 116 Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 Training Alignment Summary 2013 Training Alignment an estimated Industry needs Specialised and/or skill shortage occupations Skills needs in regions Employer and student needs 43,500 + 20,000 vocational training enrolments in 2013 employees per year required over the five years to 2017-18 23% 12% of enrolments in courses aligned to specialised occupations of enrolments in courses aligned to occupations experiencing skills shortage The top three employing regions accounted for These three regions accounted for 36% 56% of industry enrolments in 2013 of industry employment 65% 78% of industry employers were satisfied with the VET system of students reported job-related benefits from VET Alignment to industry needs This section explores the alignment between vocational training and industry needs by comparing projected annual employment needs in the Manufacturing industry with 2013 enrolment levels for qualifications aligned to the industry. Table 12.4 highlights the top ten employing occupations136 in the Manufacturing industry. Forecasts presented in the table estimate the expected average annual employment needs. Average annual employment needs include employment growth or decline and replacement demand 137 by occupation for the next five years. Over the next five years within the Manufacturing industry, average annual employment needs are expected to be approximately 20,000 employees per year. This compares with vocational training delivery of 43,500 government subsidised enrolments in 2013. Within Manufacturing, the top occupations by employment size include Production Managers, Packers and Product Assemblers. Average annual employment needs over the next five years within Manufacturing for these occupations are estimated at: 810 per annum for Production Managers; 670 per annum for Packers and; 590 per annum for Product Assemblers. Table 12.4: Top ten occupations by employment, 2012-13, and associated enrolments, 2013 Occupation 2012-13 employment Employment growth to 2017-18138 5-yr average annual employment need VET enrolments 2013 Production Managers 12,650 1,950 810 Packers 11,020 970 670 - Product Assemblers 10,720 - 590 20 Food and Drink Factory Workers 10 10,480 2,210 790 4,700 Metal Fitters and Machinists 9,510 1,010 730 1,400 Structural Steel and Welding Trades 9,350 730 550 200 136 Occupations are listed at the ABS 4-digit ANZSCO Unit Group level. Forecast employment growth or decline is the expected change in the number of jobs within an occupation year to year. The period presented in the table from 2011-12 to 2016-17. Replacement demand is the number of existing workers that are forecast to leave the occupation through retirement, moving into a different industry or occupation or moving interstate etc. that require replacing to meet existing employment needs. 138 Employment growth forecasts are sourced from Monash Centre of Policy Studies and were developed prior to recent announcements regarding automotive manufacturing in Australia. Employment growth projections should therefore be treated with caution. 137 Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 117 2012-13 employment Occupation Employment growth to 2017-18138 5-yr average annual employment need VET enrolments 2013 Forklift Drivers 8,070 870 500 - Storepersons 7,580 420 320 * Sales Assistants (General) 7,340 410 470 * Industrial, Mechanical and 6,510 680 520 Production Engineers Source: Centre of Policy Studies, Monash University (2013) Labour Force Projections, SVTS Note: Occupations aligned to VET qualifications are highlighted in blue. *VET qualifications not directly aligned to the Manufacturing industry and therefore outside the scope of this chapter. - When comparing projected annual employment needs with 2013 enrolment levels, some broad messages can be established regarding the alignment between government subsidised enrolments in Manufacturing-related training and industry requirements. 2013 training delivery aligned to Food and Drink Factory Workers appears to be well-placed to meet, or even surpass, expected average annual employment needs. However, training in courses related to Structural Steel and Welding Trades Workers, Metal Fitters and Machinists, Product Assemblers and Production Managers may not be sufficient to meet projected average annual employment needs if enrolments continue at 2013 levels. o o o o Structural Steel and Welding Trades: average annual employment needs are estimated at 550 a year while 2013 vocational training enrolments were 200. Metal Fitters and Machinists: enrolments aligned to this occupation were 1,400 in 2013; given a majority of enrolments aligned to this occupation are in apprenticeships, course duration means that enrolments may need to increase to meet projected average annual employment needs of over 700 employees. Product Assemblers: few VET qualifications align directly to this occupation. Production Managers: this occupation is chiefly aligned with Higher Education qualifications and employment needs may well be being met through this route. Alignment to specialised and/or in shortage occupations and skill needs Vocational training related to occupations identified as specialised or experiencing skill shortages that enhance the productive capacity of the Victorian economy are a high priority for government investment. This section highlights training alignment to areas of strategic skill needs for the Manufacturing industry, including an analysis of enrolments in areas of identified skill shortages or aligned to specialised occupations139. Identified skills shortages in Manufacturing for 2013 include: Mechanical Engineer Fitter / Turner Baker Sheetmetal Trades Worker Metal Machinist Cabinetmaker Skills shortage occupations also relevant to Manufacturing: In 2013, there were a total of 10,000 enrolments related to specialised or in shortage occupations within the Manufacturing industry, 23 per cent of total training in the industry. This is below the average 41 per cent of all industry training. There has been a 12 per cent increase in enrolments in Manufacturing courses aligned to specialised/ in shortage occupations. 139 Supply and Distribution Manager; Electrical Engineer; Electronics Engineer; Warehouse Administrator; Truck Driver DEECD’s 2013 listing of Victorian skills shortages is at the 6-digit ABS ANZSCO occupation level. 118 Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 Table 12.5: Enrolments related to specialised and/or in shortage occupations, government subsidised, 2008–2013 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 10,100 8,900 9,500 8,600 8,900 10,000 Year-on-year % change - -12% 7% -9% 3% 12% Year-on-year % change (all industries) - 12% 13% 18% 19% 14% Specialised / in shortage enrolments Alignment to skills needs in regions This section considers training alignment with skills needs in regions by comparing the proportion of industry training witahin each region with the proportion of Manufacturing employment in the region. In Melbourne, Manufacturing business establishments are heavily concentrated in the south-east (Greater Dandenong, Kingston), east (Knox) and north-west (Hume) industrial nodes. Manufacturing business establishments in regional Victoria are also generally consolidated to major centres and townships.140 Seventy-six per cent of employment in the Manufacturing industry is located within metropolitan Melbourne, with 24 per cent located in regional Victoria. The highest concentration of employment within the Manufacturing industry in Victoria is within the Southern Metropolitan (23 per cent), Eastern Metropolitan (18 per cent), and Northern Metropolitan (15 per cent) regions.141 Figure 12.3: Regional share of employment and enrolments Source: ABS (2011) Census of Population and Housing; SVTS The Inner Metropolitan region had the largest number of Manufacturing enrolments in 2013 with 11,200 enrolments (26 per cent of industry training delivery). In line with employment trends, the metropolitan areas also accounted for the highest concentration of enrolments. Metropolitan Melbourne accounted for 78 per cent of Manufacturing industry employment and comprised 76 per cent of training delivery in 2013. Within the Melbourne region, training is concentrated in Inner Metropolitan, unlike industry employment, indicating potential opportunities for improved alignment between regional training delivery and local employment needs. Training delivery appears to be well aligned to employment needs in regional Victoria, with the potential exception of Hume which accounted for a higher proportion of industry training than its share of employment (9 per cent of industry enrolments compared with 5 per cent of Victoria’s Manufacturing employment). Recent developments in the automotive sector are expected to have an impact on the Manufacturing industry, particularly in South East Melbourne. Victoria expects the combined impact of Holden, Toyota 140 DSDBI (2012) Business location in Victoria: A decade of change 141 Regional Distribution are estimates only based on ABS (2011) Census of Population and Housing Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 119 and Ford ceasing manufacturing operations over the coming years to 2017, to be the loss of up to 25,000 Victorian jobs. A large share of these jobs will stem from supply chain businesses located in the South East of Melbourne that service the automotive manufacturing companies. It not yet understood how many of these businesses will close or diversify, triggering a large retraining effort for affected employees of these businesses. These workers will either up-skill to adapt to changed business conditions and structuring or re-train in order to transition to a different industry sector. Table 12.6: Enrolments by region, ranked by 2013 enrolments, government subsidised, 2008–2013 Region 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Inner Metropolitan 4,700 3,300 5,600 9,100 15,000 11,200 Southern Metropolitan 2,500 2,700 3,100 3,700 4,400 6,500 Western Metropolitan 1,500 1,300 1,500 2,400 3,000 5,700 Northern Metropolitan 4,000 4,100 3,800 4,500 4,900 5,100 Eastern Metropolitan 2,600 2,200 3,500 2,400 3,100 4,200 Hume 4,000 2,700 2,400 3,700 3,500 3,800 Geelong and Surrounds 1,200 1,100 1,300 1,800 1,800 1,500 Great South Coast 1,300 1,300 950 950 1,000 1,100 Gippsland 1,300 1,100 1,000 900 900 1,000 Central Highlands 700 1,000 800 900 950 950 Loddon Mallee North 950 550 700 1,300 1,500 950 Loddon Mallee South 850 900 850 700 450 650 40 30 100 100 150 150 Wimmera Southern Mallee Note that regional totals will be greater than total industry enrolments due to some enrolments falling within more than one region of training delivery. Figure 12.4: Regional share of enrolments, 2008 and 2013 Alignment to employers and students: Employer satisfaction and student outcomes Training alignment in this section focuses on the degree of satisfaction with training provision and employment outcomes by both employers and students. Drawing on results from NCVER’s Student 120 Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 Outcomes Survey and Survey of Employers' Use and Views of the VET System 2013142, insights can be gained on the performance of the VET system in meeting the needs of the Manufacturing industry. Employers from the Manufacturing industry were satisfied overall with the VET system, with 65 per cent of employers stating that they were satisfied. This is, however, lower than the all industry average of 73 per cent employer satisfaction. Students who report a job-related benefit following completion of their training qualification were able to get a job, change jobs, get promoted, expand or set up their own business. Within the Manufacturing industry 78 per cent of students reported job-related benefits from their training. This is higher than the all-industry average of 72 per cent. Figure 12.5: Student and employer outcomes of vocational training Manufacturing Satisfied Employers satisfied with VET system Students reporting jobrelated benefit from VET Satisfied Not-Satisfied 65% Benefit All- industry comparison 35% No Benefit 78% 22% Employers satisfied with VET system Students reporting jobrelated benefit from VET Not-Satisfied 73% Benefit 72% 27% No Benefit 28% Source: NCVER(2013) Survey of Employers' Use and Views of the VET System; NCVER (2012) Student Outcomes Survey Certain population groups face barriers to participation in education, training and the workforce. This section considers the proportion of industry training undertaken by different learner groups, and to what extent they are represented in Manufacturing training when compared with all-industry averages. In 2013, students aged 25 and older were relatively well-represented in Manufacturing industry training, accounting for 72 per cent of enrolments compared with an all-industry average of 56 per cent. Culturally and Linguistically Diverse (CALD) students had higher than average representation within Manufacturing (33 per cent compared with an average of 27 per cent across all industries). Female students, on the other hand, were relatively under-represented in Manufacturing industry training. Enrolments by women accounted for 22 per cent of Manufacturing enrolments, significantly less than the average across all industries of 44 per cent and indicative of the industry’s workforce profile. Similarly, unemployed students accounted for a much lower proportion of Manufacturing training than the all-industry average, 11 per cent compared with 25 per cent across all industry training. Figure 12.6: Proportion of government subsidised enrolments by student group, 2013 142 Note: Employer satisfaction and student outcomes data for this industry is indicative only. Due to small sample sizes at the State level, data for individual industries is presented at national level. Employer satisfaction and student outcomes data for “All industries” is at Victorian level. Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 121 Skills needs within the Manufacturing industry are varied and the challenges surrounding the training market are diverse. In order to improve the alignment of the training market to the industry’s needs, the Victorian Government has introduced a new, more holistic approach, as outlined in the following PACCAR case study. Case Study PACCAR Supply Chain Network With the introduction of the demand driven training market, the Victorian Government introduced a new way of working with industry called the Industry Participation Model. Victoria’s direct approach to working with industry and stakeholders means it is geared towards providing tailored, efficient and effective projects, tools and information products that helps industry to achieve optimal vocational training results and resolve issues and barriers. Issues DEECD Market Facilitation Outcomes o Engaging with training providers o Training content o Networking An Industry Roundtable was convened to allow for companies to be actively involved in identifying key training market issues and barriers and finding solutions. PACCAR has been a clear frontrunner when developing a partnership approach with training providers to influence positive training market outcomes. The Roundtable was the ideal forum for PACCAR to showcase critical success factors for a best practice model that can be adopted elsewhere within the transport industry. PACCAR established a strong partnership with Box Hill TAFE. PACCAR understood the benefits of the relationship could be multiplied if it included smaller companies in its supply chain. PACCAR Supply Chain Network worked with Box Hill TAFE to customise the Diploma of Management to their requirements. PACCAR partnered with other local manufacturers to build a critical mass needed for Box Hill to deliver. The Victorian Government will continue to support PACCAR and related supply chain companies to take direct action to influence training market outcomes for the transport industry. This model can also be tested with other sectors. 122 Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 Mining Mining is involved in the extraction of naturally occurring mineral solids, such as coal and ores; liquid minerals, such as crude petroleum; and gases, such as natural gas. Training Snapshot There were 350 government subsidised enrolments related to the Mining industry in 2013, a decrease of 31 per cent on 2012. This decline may have been driven by challenging economic conditions, declining industry output trends and a dampened perception of industry prospects. There were an additional 140 TAFE fee for service enrolments related to the Mining industry, a decrease of 30 per cent since 2012. In 2013, reported completions for courses related to the Mining industry, was 100, a 56 per cent decrease since 2012. Table 13.1: Vocational training enrolments and completions, year on year changes, 2008-2013 Mining 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 400 350 300 300 550 350 Year-on-year % change - -5% -14% -13% 92% -31% Year-on-year % change (all industries) - 3% 18% 31% 14% -11% 500 300 100 100 200 100 Year-on-year % change - -44% -75% 20% 162% -30% Year-on-year % change (all industries) - 15% 3% 0% 18% -9% 100 200 100 100 250 100 Year-on-year % change - 58% -53% 38% 125% -56% Year-on-year % change (all industries) - 5% 19% 33% 29% -15% Government subsidised enrolments TAFE fee for service enrolments Completions Note: all enrolment data is government subsidised, unless otherwise stated. Completions data includes all reported government subsidised and fee for service activity by all providers (TAFE and non-TAFE). TAFE institutes accounted for a majority of training delivery in this industry, 73 per cent. This is higher than the average of 37 per cent TAFE provision across all industries. A relatively high proportion of Mining industry enrolments were in traineeships, accounting for one quarter of training delivery in 2013 compared with an all-industry average of 13 per cent. Eighty-four per cent of enrolments aligned to the Mining industry are at Certificate III or above, lower than the all industry average of 90 per cent. Training Dashboard Figure 13.1: Share of industry enrolments compared against all industries, 2013 Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 123 Table 13.2: Top five courses ranked by 2013 enrolments, government subsidised, 2012–2013 Course 2012 Certificate IV in Surface Extraction Operations Certificate III in Surface Extraction Operations Certificate II in Surface Extraction Operations Certificate III in Resource Processing Certificate III in Underground Metalliferous Mining Table 13.3: Top five occupations ranked by 2013 enrolments, government subsidised, 2012–2013 2013 Occupation 250 150 Drillers, Miners and Shot Firers 50 100 50 20 - 20 Engineering Production Employees Other Construction and Mining Labourers Other Building and Engineering Technicians 10 20 Science Technicians 2012 2013 400 300 60 30 50 10 10 10 - - Industry Overview The Mining industry, encompassing exploration, extraction and processing, is a key contributor to national income, investment, high-wage jobs, exports and government revenues in Australia. It is a global industry where competition for markets is intense, investment opportunities abound in other resource-rich economies and capital, people and technology are highly mobile. 143 Given the high Australian dollar, high production costs and commodity price devaluation and competitiveness pressures, the Mining industry is increasingly turning to technological solutions to increase productivity, improve safety, discover new ore bodies, improve recovery rates, remove waste and decrease energy use144. Victoria accounts for about 10 per cent of industry establishments nationally, with production focused on oil and gas, brown coal and gold. Its share has eased due to reductions in output from the oil fields of Bass Strait145 and reflects recent declines in gross value added as highlighted above. Mining is one of the smallest contributing industries within Victoria. Mining contributed an estimated $6.4 billion to the Victorian economy in 2012-13, around 2 per cent of Victoria's total gross value added. Over the five years to June 2013, industry gross value added has been declining, with an average annual decline of 5 per cent.146 There were an estimated 900 businesses operating in Victoria's Mining industry at June 2012 accounting for less than 1 per cent of all businesses across the state. Mining had a high concentration of small businesses (56 per cent sole traders; 37 per cent employing 1-19 employees). Forty-one per cent of businesses had a turnover of $200,000 or more per annum. This is higher than the average across all industries at 36 per cent.147 In 2013, Mining was the smallest employing industry in Victoria. Approximately 14,400 people were employed in Victoria's Mining industry, less than 1 per cent of all employment in Victoria. The industry has seen employment growth of approximately 45 per cent over the five years to 2012-13, equating to an inflow of around 4,300 employees. The outlook for Mining over the five years is for employment to grow by approximately 18 per cent, equating to 2,600 jobs.148 The Other Mining Services sub-sector accounted for the largest proportion of industry employment, 35 per cent of the total. This was followed by the Metal Ore Mining sub-sector, with 30 per cent of employment in the industry. 143 Mineral Councils of Australia (2013) The Victorian Minerals Industry 144 AWPA (2013) Resources sector skills needs 2013 report 145 IBIS World (2013) Mining in Australia 146 Australian Bureau of Statistics (2013) Australian National Accounts: State Accounts, CT NO: 5220.0 147 Australian Bureau of Statistics (2012) Counts of Australian Businesses, including Entries and Exits, Jun 2008 to Jun 2012, CT NO: 8165.0 148 Centre of Policy Studies, Monash University (2013) Labour Force Projections 124 Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 Figure 13.2: Share of employment by industry sub-sector, 2012–13 The current demands of the Mining industry have prompted a number of changes to training delivery within the industry and the Training Alignment section of this industry profile explores how the training market is tracking against skills needs. Training Alignment Summary 2013 Training Alignment an estimated + 1,100 Industry needs Specialised and/or skill shortage occupations employees per year required over the five years to 2017-18 400 vocational training enrolments in 2013 There were no enrolments in courses aligned to specialised occupations There were no enrolments in courses aligned to skills shortage occupations The top three employing regions accounted for These three regions accounted for Skills needs in regions Employer and student needs 59% of industry employment 40% of industry enrolments in 2013 74% 78% of industry employers were satisfied with the VET system of students reported job-related benefits from VET Alignment to industry needs This section explores the alignment between vocational training and industry needs by comparing projected annual employment needs in the Mining industry with 2013 enrolments levels for qualifications aligned with the industry. 149 The Victorian Mining industry has been in decline and recent years have seen a drive to increase productivity and efficiency within the industry and diversify production processes. Key industry bodies in Victoria suggest that there are increasing opportunities to be realised locally given the potential of the resources it has. Changes in legislation and regulation have been supporting movements from the exploration phase to the feasibility phase of Mining in Victoria 149. In order to adapt to the shift within the industry, there will need to be a change in the nature of skills required. This highlights the need for improved training delivery. Mineral Councils of Australia (2013) The Victorian Minerals Industry Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 125 Building stronger ties between the Mining industry and the training market will support improved training quality and responsiveness to industry needs and lead to better outcomes for employers and students. The Mining industry needs access to responsive training providers that can deliver quality training to meet their needs.150 It is important to the industry that the notion of ‘quality’ is satisfactory from both the training providers’ and employers’ perspective. At the same time, industry needs to better engage with the training market to articulate the defined industry competencies that are relevant and aligned to the current workplace. Case Study Stawell Gold Mine Workers in Transition Program DEECD’s Workers in Transition (WiT) Program works with businesses facing closures or restructuring, to provide retrenched staff with tailored training and a qualification to assist them in the transition to new employment. It gives redundant workers access to a funded training place regardless of eligibility for the Victorian Training Guarantee (VTG) if they want to reskill to support their transition to new employment. Issues DEECD Market Facilitation Outcomes The Stawell gold mine (Croc Gold) is closing with operations planned to cease in 2014. The DEECD regional manager in the Grampians worked with the company to provide WiT support to about half of the workforce (around 180 people) who have already been made redundant. WiT support to approximately 150 staff and 100 contractors Provision of information to a Project Control Group (PCG) which is looking at the use and redevelopment of the gold mine, including the possible establishment of a mine training centre. The WiT briefings, information and discussions further facilitated conversation around training provision in surface operations – an emerging need in the region with a number of mineral sands operations coming on – to existing underground workers helping to retain this valuable workforce and their skills in the region as well as ameliorating the effect of the mine closure on the local community. Data and information available on the DEECD Industry Participation website e.g. Industry Training Market Information, will contribute significantly to Council, community and local industry understanding of the viability of the future of the site, including the mining training centre proposal. This information will be supplemented by VET analysis and area specific information provided by DEECD’s Industry Skills Analysis Unit. The Regional Manager is there to facilitate and support the access and analysis of that data. Table 13.4 highlights the top ten employing occupations151 in the Mining industry. Projections presented in the table estimate average annual employment needs for this industry. The average annual employment needs include employment growth or declineand replacement demand 152. Over the five years to 2017-18, average annual employment needs for Mining are expected to be approximately 1,100 per year. The top three largest occupations by employment size were Drillers/Miners/Shot Firers, Mining Engineers and Metal Fitters and Machinists. Projected average annual employment needs over the five years to 2017-18 within the Mining industry for these occupations are: 190 per annum for Drillers/Miners/Shot Firers; 110 per annum for Mining Engineers; and 60 per annum for Metal Fitters and Machinists. 150 Skills DMC (2013) Environmental Scan – Resources and Infrastructure Industry 151 Occupations are listed at the ABS 4-digit ANZSCO Unit Group level 152 Forecast employment growth or decline is the expected change in the number of jobs within an occupation year to year. The period presented in the table from 2012-13 to 2017-18. Replacement demand is the number of existing workers that are forecast to leave the occupation through retirement, moving into a different industry or occupation or moving interstate etc. that require replacing to meet existing employment needs. 126 Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 Table 13.4: Top ten occupations by employment, 2012–2013, and associated enrolments, 2013 2012-13 employment 1,110 Employment growth to 2017-18 140 5-yr average annual employment needs 190 VET enrolments 2013 300 Mining Engineers 920 260 110 - Metal Fitters and Machinists 770 80 60 * Production Managers 710 110 50 * Geologists and Geophysicists 600 -60 50 - Accountants 500 70 30 * Truck Drivers 490 50 20 * Other Construction and Mining Labours 440 - 60 10 Earthmoving Plant Operators 440 -20 10 * Chief Executives and Managing Director 310 30 20 - Occupations Drillers, Miners and Shot Firers Source: Centre of Policy Studies, Monash University (2013) Labour Force Projections, SVTS Note: Occupations aligned to VET qualifications are highlighted in blue. *VET qualifications not aligned to the Mining industry and therefore outside the scope of this report. When comparing projected annual employment needs with 2013 enrolment levels, some broad messages can be established regarding the alignment between government subsidised enrolments in Mining-related training and industry requirements. 2013 training delivery aligned to Drillers, Miners and Shot Firers, Engineering Production Employees and Other Construction and Mining Labourers appears to be well-placed to meet expected average annual employment needs. Alignment to specialised and/or in shortage occupations and skill needs This section highlights training alignment to areas of strategic skill needs for the Mining industry. While there were no enrolments aligned to specialised or in shortage occupations in 2013, structural changes within the Mining industry give rise to certain critical skills. The industry’s shift to an operations phase is expected to result in increasing use of remotely controlled and automated systems, with a move towards high level specialists and away from areas such as drill rigs, loaders, haul trucks and trains. Retraining and upskilling of employees will need to be a focus for resources companies. The industry will continue to concentrate on productivity to produce at the lowest possible cost, with a shifting focus towards operating efficiently instead of expanding capacity. Skills to support productivity improvements will need to centre on operational efficiencies (minimising waste and effective use of plant and equipment) and technological requirements. Safety and compliance will continue to be a priority in the industry and will drive investment in upskilling and reskilling of the workplace. Alignment to skills needs in regions This section considers training alignment with skills needs in regions by comparing the proportion of industry training within each region with the proportion of Mining employment in the region. 153 Mining establishments were heavily concentrated in regional Victoria around major mineral deposits or quarries where mining activities occur, including Greater Bendigo, Greater Geelong, Wellington, Latrobe, Corangamite and Ballarat. Within Melbourne, several operating gravel and sand quarries are spread across Metropolitan Melbourne.153 Mining employment appears to be relatively well balanced between regional and metropolitan Victoria, with 55 per cent of employment located within metropolitan Melbourne, and 45 per cent in the regions. DSDBI (2012) Business location in Victoria: A decade of change Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 127 Figure 13.3: Regional share of employment and enrolments Source: ABS (2011) Census of Population and Housing, SVTS The highest concentration of employment within the Mining industry in Victoria was within the Inner Metropolitan (32 per cent), Gippsland (17 per cent), and Loddon Mallee South (10 per cent) regions.154 2013 data shows that enrolments were largely concentrated in Hume (37 per cent). Loddon Mallee South and Western Metropolitan were the next most significant regions with 30 and 10 per cent enrolments respectively. This regional strength is not reflected in employment data. Regional alignment for Mining employment and delivery was relatively weak. This may reflect the uneven nature of mining projects in Victoria together with small training and employment bases. Figure 13.4: Regional distribution of enrolments, government subsidised, 2013 Region 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 - - - - 250 150 Loddon Mallee South 150 150 150 200 200 100 Western Metropolitan 30 10 - - 10 40 Eastern Metropolitan 200 100 40 50 50 30 Inner Metropolitan - 30 60 10 - 20 Gippsland - - - - - 20 Hume Wimmera Southern Mallee 20 Note that regional totals will be greater than total industry enrolments due to some enrolments falling within more than one region of training delivery. 154 128 Regional distribution data are estimates only based on ABS (2011) Census of Population and Housing Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 Figure 13.4: Regional share of enrolments, 2008 and 2013 Alignment to employers and students: Employer satisfaction and student outcomes This section focuses on the degree of satisfaction with training provision and employment outcomes by both employers and students. Drawing on results from the NCVER Student Outcomes Survey 2012 and Survey of Employers' Use and Views of the VET System 2013155 insights can be gained on the performance of the VET system in meeting the needs of the Construction industry. Mining industry employers were satisfied overall with the VET system, with 74 per cent of employers stating that they were satisfied. This is slightly higher than the all industry average (73 per cent). Within the Mining industry 78 per cent of students reported job-related benefits from their training (for example, getting a job or promotion or expanding or setting-up their business). This is higher than the all-industry average (72 per cent). Figure 13.5: Student and employer outcomes of vocational training Mining Satisfied Employers satisfied with VET system Students reporting jobrelated benefit from VET All- industry comparison 74% Benefit Satisfied Not-Satisfied 26% Employers satisfied with VET system 22% Students reporting jobrelated benefit from VET No Benefit 78% Not-Satisfied 73% Benefit 72% 27% No Benefit 28% Source: NCVER (2013) Survey of Employers' Use and Views of the VET System; NCVER (2012) Student Outcomes Survey Certain population groups face barriers to participation in education, training and the workforce. This section considers the proportion of industry training undertaken by different learner groups, and to what extent they are represented in Mining training when compared with all-industry averages. At 2 per cent, Indigenous students were relatively well-represented in Mining industry training when compared to the industry average of 1 per cent. Similarly, students aged 25 years and older made up 78 per cent of enrolments for this industry, significantly more than the all industries average (56 per cent). 155 Note: Employer satisfaction and student outcomes data for this industry is indicative only. Due to small sample sizes at the State level, data for individual industries is presented at national level. Employer satisfaction and student outcomes data for “All industries” is at Victorian level. Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 129 However, Culturally and Linguistically Diverse (CALD) students comprised 13 per cent of Mining enrolments and were under-represented when compared to the average across all industries (27 per cent). Female students were also under-represented in this industry, comprising only 4 per cent of Mining enrolments. Figure 13.6: Enrolments by student group, government subsidised, 2013 130 Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 Other Services covers Other Services a range of personal care service such as hair, beauty and diet services; death care services; administering religious events. Also included are repair and maintenance activities for automotive and other machinery and equipment. Training Snapshot There were 21,100 government subsidised enrolments aligned to the Other Services industry in 2013, in line with 2012 enrolment numbers. Other Services training accounted for 5 per cent of total government subsidised industry training in Victoria. There were 4,000 TAFE fee for service enrolments, 16 per cent of reported training related to this industry. There were 7,600 course completions reported in this industry in 2013. Table 14.1: Vocational training enrolments and completions, year on year changes, 2008–2013 Other Services Government subsidised enrolments 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 12,600 13,200 17,700 19,500 21,100 21,100 Year-on-year % change - 5% 31% 10% 8% 0% Year-on-year % change (all industries) - 3% 18% 31% 14% -11% 3,300 3,900 3,500 3,800 4,100 4,000 - 15% 15% -9% 3% 7% 0% 8% 18% -1% -9% 4,300 4,300 5,700 7,300 8,900 7,600 - 1% 32% 27% 23% -14% TAFE fee for service enrolments Year-on-year % change Year-on-year % change (all industries) Completions Year-on-year % change Year-on-year % change (all industries) 5% 19% 33% 29% -15% Note: all enrolment data is government subsidised, unless otherwise stated. Completions data includes all reported government subsidised and fee for service activity by all providers (TAFE and non-TAFE). TAFE Institutes accounted for a majority of Other Services training, 51 per cent of the total (compared with an all-industry average of 37 per cent). Provision by private training providers represented 46 per cent of training delivery in 2013, while Learn Local providers accounted for 2 per cent of enrolments. The proportion of apprenticeships in this industry was relatively high, 31 per cent of total enrolments compared with an all-industry average of 10 per cent. The proportion of traineeships enrolments aligned to the Other Services industry was 2 per cent in 2013, below the all-industry average of 13 per cent of enrolments. Figure 14.1: Share of industry enrolments compared against all industries, 2013 Other Services industry Learn Local Training Dashboard Provider type 2% TAFE 51% Band B 59% 10% Band C 22% 87% Certificate I-II Qualification level Band D 20% Band E 7% Certificate III + 10% 90% Band A Subsidy band Other 13% Certificate III + Other 90% Trainee Trainee Private 37% Other 88% Band A Subsidy band Apprentice 98% 12% TAFE Apprentice 69% 2% 4% Other 31% Certificate I-II Qualification level Provider type 46% Trainee Trainee Private 51% Apprentice Apprentice All industries Learn Local 19% Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 Band B 34% Band C Band D 30% Band E 8% 9% 131 Table 14.2: Top five occupations ranked by 2013 enrolments, Table 14.3: Top five courses ranked by 2013 enrolments, government subsidised, 2012–2013 government subsidised, 2012–2013 Occupation 2012 Motor Mechanics Hairdressers Beauty Therapists Other Miscellaneous Labourers Other Personal Service Workers 5,500 5,900 4,700 1,600 1,400 2013 6,900 5,100 4,900 1,500 950 Course Certificate III in Automotive MechanicalIIITechnology Certificate in Hairdressing Certificate IV in Beauty Therapy Certificate III in Hairdressing Certificate III in Beauty Services 2012 4,400 850 1,100 4,000 1,100 2013 5,400 2,900 1,800 1,800 1,700 Industry Overview The Other Services industry contributed an estimated $5.9 billion to the Victorian economy in 2012-13, around 2 per cent of Victoria's total gross value added. Over the five years to June 2013, this represents an average annual growth of 3 per cent.156 There were an estimated 33,200 businesses operating in Victoria's Other Services industry at June 2012, 6 per cent of all businesses across the state. Other Services has a high concentration of small businesses, with 98 per cent of operators employing less than 20 people.157 Approximately 107,600 people were employed in Victoria's Other Services industry, equating to 4 per cent of all employment in Victoria. Industry employment has remained stable over the last five years, while the outlook over the five years to 2017-18 is for employment to grow by approximately 8 per cent (or 8,200 jobs).158 The Personal and Other Services sub-sector accounts for the largest proportion of industry employment, 57 per cent of the total. This is followed by the Repair and Maintenance sub-sector, with 43 per cent of employment in the industry. Figure 14.2: Share of employment by industry sub-sector, 2012–13 <1% Personal and Other Services 43% 57% Repair and Maintenance Private Household Staff and Products Source: Centre of Policy Studies, Monash University (2013) Labour Force Projections 156 The Other Services industry covers a range of segments, some of which are facing a more certain future than others. For example, the Laundry and Dry-Cleaning Services segment is benefiting from the trend towards outsourcing laundry services by health, accommodation and hospitality businesses, whilst the demand for many repair services is declining as the cost differential between replacement and repair narrows. The Automotive Repair and Maintenance sub-sector benefited from the increase in older vehicles on the road as a result of dampened consumer spending during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). However, the sub-sector now faces a slow-down in demand as a result of technological advances in the manufacture of vehicles which has improved reliability and durability. The industry is likely to face ongoing consolidation as smaller operators are being replaced by larger franchises able to offer a wider range of services and economies of scale. The sub-sector is expected to continue to experience structural change in the years ahead, with technology a major driver. The sophisticated network of computerised vehicle systems, the use of new Australian Bureau of Statistics (2013) Australian National Accounts: State Accounts, CT NO: 5220.0 Australian Bureau of Statistics (2012) Counts of Australian Businesses, including Entries and Exits, Jun 2008 to Jun 2012, CT NO: 8165.0 158 Centre of Policy Studies, Monash University (2013) Labour Force Projections 132 Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 157 lightweight vehicle componentry and the wider adoption of hybrid and battery electric vehicles over time will require considerable investment in human capital and skills and well as plant and equipment. The Hairdressing and Beauty Services sub-sector is characterised by a large number of small operators with low barriers to entry resulting in high employee churn rates. Businesses are experiencing rapid growth in new products and technologies aimed at solutions such as anti-ageing and hair-loss reduction. As a result of these developments in treatments and products, there is an increasing need to engage in ongoing professional development in order to remain a specialist in the field. Many of these developments require new skills and substantial levels of knowledge. The Training Alignment section of this industry profile explores how the training market is tracking against these skills needs. Training Alignment Summary 2013 Training Alignment an estimated Industry needs Specialised and/or skill shortage occupations Skills needs in regions Employer and student needs + 6,900 employees per year required over the five years to 2017-18 35% 21,100 vocational training enrolments in 2013 34% of enrolments in courses aligned to specialised occupations of enrolments in courses aligned to occupations experiencing skills shortage The top three employing regions accounted for These three regions accounted for 56% of industry employment 59% of industry enrolments in 2013 67% 81% of industry employers were satisfied with the VET system of students reported job-related benefits from VET Alignment to industry needs This section explores the alignment between vocational training and industry needs by comparing projected annual employment needs in Other Services with 2013 enrolments levels for qualifications aligned with the industry. Highlighted in Table 14.4 are the top ten employing occupations159 that align to the Other Services industry. Projections presented in the table estimate the expected average annual employment needs. The average annual employment needs include employment growth or decline and replacement demand 160 by occupation for the next five years. Over the next five years within the Other Services industry, average annual employment needs are expected to be approximately 6,900 per year. This compares with government subsidised vocational training delivery of 21,100 in 2013. Within Other Services, the top three occupations by employment size were Hairdressers, Motor Mechanics and Panelbeaters. Projected average annual employment needs within Other Services for these occupations over the next five years are: 1,320 per annum for Hairdressers; 790 per annum for Motor Mechanics; and 380 per annum for Panelbeaters. 159 Occupations are listed at the ABS 4-digit ANZSCO Unit Group level. Forecast employment growth or decline is the expected change in the number of jobs within an occupation year to year. The period presented in the table from 2011-12 to 2016-17. Replacement demand is the number of existing workers that are forecast to leave the occupation through retirement, moving into a different industry or occupation or moving interstate etc. that require replacing to meet existing employment needs. 160 Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 133 Table 14.4: Top ten occupations by employment, 2012–2013, and associated enrolments, 2013 Occupation 2012-13 Employment Employment growth to 2017-18 5-yr average annual employment need VET enrolments 2013 Hairdressers 15,800 1,650 1,320 5,100 Motor Mechanics 12,550 750 790 6,900 Panelbeaters 4,440 90 380 10 Beauty Therapists 4,240 460 320 4,900 Ministers of Religion 3,020 -320 70 - Fitness Instructors 2,480 460 250 * Laundry Workers Air conditioning and Refrigeration Mechanics 2,450 -200 50 70 2,430 220 260 * Retail Managers 2,240 170 90 40 Car Detailers 1,900 120 80 Source: Centre of Policy Studies, Monash University (2013) Labour Force Projections, SVTS Note: Occupations aligned to VET qualifications are highlighted in blue. *VET qualifications not directly aligned to the Other Services industry and therefore outside the scope of this chapter. - When comparing projected annual employment needs with 2013 enrolment levels, some broad messages can be established regarding the alignment between government subsidised enrolments in Other Services training and industry requirements. 2013 training delivery aligned to Hairdressers, Motor Mechanics, Beauty Therapists and Laundry Employees appears to be well-placed to meet, and in some cases surpass, expected average annual employment needs in this industry. Few enrolments are aligned to the occupation Panelbeater in 2013 as these skills have previously been embedded within qualifications aligned to the occupation Vehicle Body Builder. There were 550 Other Services enrolments aligned to Vehicle Body Builder in 2013. Given a high proportion of these enrolments are apprenticeships, enrolments may need to rise from 2013 levels to meet projected average annual employment needs of 380 employees. While 2013 Other Services enrolments aligned to the occupation Retail Manager are below projected average annual employment needs, these skills are primarily covered in qualifications aligned to other industries (e.g. Retail Trade). Alignment to specialised and/or in shortage occupations and skill needs Vocational training related to occupations identified as specialised or experiencing skill shortages that enhance the productive capacity of the Victorian economy is a high priority for government investment. This section highlights training alignment to areas of strategic need for the Other Services industry, including an analysis of training delivery in areas of identified skill shortages or in specialised occupations 161. A number of skill shortage occupations have been identified in the Repair and Maintenance sub-sector, including Motor Mechanics and Automotive Electricians. Businesses report issues in retaining skilled employees in the industry, and while it takes up to four years to train an apprentice, in many cases a person’s expertise and their mastery of a specific skill may mature only after additional years in the industry. In the meantime, employees are being lost to the Mining and Construction industries, leaving recruitment difficulties and skills shortages. With the Personal and Other Services sub-sector, there is also a tendency for qualified employees to leave their trade to pursue other careers (for example Hairdressers moving into administration roles with similar pay rates but less demanding workloads). Retention of employees is therefore a priority. Many businesses in this segment are small enterprises where the owner/manager has a number of different roles to play. There is therefore a need for salon owners and managers to develop managerial skills, including people management, marketing (which includes service packaging, merchandising and promotional strategies) and business management (which include pricing, cash flow management and cost control). The influence of technology is being felt across many segments of the industry. Automotive employees and apprentices increasingly need higher levels of computer literacy and technical understanding to keep up with the technological advances in cars. Personal Care Services businesses are also increasingly incorporating software and ICT into business processes (for example appointment 161 DEECD’s 2013 listing of Victorian skills shortages is at the 6-digit ABS ANZSCO occupation level. 134 Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 management software). Digital literacy skills are therefore increasingly required to engage effectively with these technologies. Identified skills shortages in Other Services for 2013 include: Automotive Electricians Motor Mechanic Diesel Mechanic Motorcycle Mechanic Panelbeater Vehicle Painter Skills shortage occupations also relevant to Other Services: Retail Manager; Airconditioning and Refrigeration Mechanic There were 7,400 enrolments aligned to specialised or in shortage occupations in the Other Services industry in 2013. Enrolments in specialised or in shortage occupations increased by 25 per cent when compared with 2012. This contrasts with total enrolments in the Other Services industry, which remained stable over the same period, suggesting that there has been a shift in industry training delivery towards occupations which are experiencing high demand for skills. Table 14.5: Enrolments related to specialised and/or in shortage occupations, government subsidised, 2008–2013 Specialised / in shortage enrolments Year-on-year % change Year-on-year % change (all industries) 2008 5,000 - 2009 4,400 -12% 12% 2010 4,500 1% 13% 2011 4,700 5% 18% 2012 5,900 27% 19% 2013 7,400 25% 14% Alignment to skills needs in regions This section considers training alignment with skills needs in regions by comparing the proportion of industry training within each region with the proportion of Other Services employment in the region. Other Services business establishments are broadly scattered across metropolitan Melbourne. Many of these establishments are located in suburban shopping centres in areas such as Dandenong, Cheltenham, South Yarra, Glen Waverly and Richmond. Growth of establishments in this sector is linked to servicing other businesses or servicing local population needs. In regional Victoria, most Other Services establishments are based within the major regional centres, reflecting the population-centric nature of the industry. There have been increases in establishments in townships along the peri-urban boundary and Surf Coast region, reflecting population increases in those areas.162 Seventy-seven per cent of employment in the Other Services industry was based within Metropolitan Melbourne, with 23 per cent located in regional Victoria. The highest concentration of employment within the Other Services industry was within the Eastern Metropolitan (19 per cent), Southern Metropolitan (19 per cent), and Inner Metropolitan (18 per cent) regions.163 162 DSDBI (2012) Business location in Victoria: A decade of change 163 Regional distribution data are estimates only based on ABS (2011) Census of Population and Housing Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 135 Figure 14.3: Regional share of employment and enrolments Employment (% of total) Enrolments (% of total) 36% 19% 19% 18% 16% 11% 9% 8% 4% 4% 4% 2% 2% Geelong & Surrounds Great South Coast 3% 2% 4% 2% 1% 0% Gippsland Central Wimmera Highlands Southern Mallee Hume 4% Loddon Mallee North 3% 10% 8% 7% 2% 2% Loddon Mallee South Eastern Metro Northern Southern Western Metro Metro Metro Inner Metro Source: ABS (2011) Census of Population and Housing, SVTS Regional Victoria accounted for 31 per cent of government subsidised vocational training in Other Services in 2013. Compared to its share of industry employment (23 per cent), regional Victoria therefore appears to be relatively well represented in terms of Other Services training delivery. Regional training delivery appears to be concentrated in the Hume and Geelong and Surrounds regions, a trend not seen in regional employment data. In metropolitan Melbourne, the Inner Metropolitan region accounted for the highest proportion of enrolments in 2013, 36 per cent of the total (or 7,700 enrolments). This region accounts for a relatively high share of industry training when compared with its share of employment, offsetting relatively low training delivery in the Eastern Metropolitan and Western Metropolitan regions and highlighting the role this region plays in servicing the wider Melbourne area. Table 14.6: Enrolments by region, ranked by 2013 enrolments, government subsidised, 2008–2013 Region 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Inner Metropolitan 3,400 3,800 5,800 6,300 7,900 7,700 Southern Metropolitan 1,900 2,000 2,300 2,800 3,100 3,300 Hume 500 500 700 750 1,300 2,000 Geelong and Surrounds 600 700 950 1,200 1,400 1,700 Northern Metropolitan 2,000 2,000 2,300 2,400 2,100 1,600 Eastern Metropolitan 1,700 1,700 2,500 2,100 1,900 1,600 Gippsland 800 700 900 950 900 800 Loddon Mallee North 400 500 700 850 800 750 Central Highlands 200 300 400 600 550 500 Great South Coast 200 400 450 450 350 450 Western Metropolitan 350 150 150 450 700 450 Loddon Mallee South 350 350 350 400 350 350 Wimmera Southern Mallee 70 90 70 70 80 60 Note that regional totals will be greater than total industry enrolments due to some enrolments falling within more than one region of training delivery. 136 Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 Figure 14.4: Regional share of enrolments, 2008 and 2013 Alignment to employers and students: Employer satisfaction and student outcomes This section focuses on the degree of satisfaction with training provision and employment outcomes by both employers and students. Drawing on results from NCVER’s Student Outcomes Survey 2012 and Survey of Employers' Use and Views of the VET System 2013164, insights can be gained on the performance of the VET system in meeting the needs of the Other Services industry. Within the Personal and Other Services sub-sector, a mismatch has been identified between the skills available and the skills demanded by businesses – specifically in hairdressing. Many applicants are deemed unsuitable due to a lack of practical experience, with a change in training methods considered to be a contributing factor. Traditionally, a hairdresser would undertake a full apprenticeship; these are now being replaced in some instances by a number of short courses and condensed apprenticeships. Sixty-seven per cent of employers from the Other Services industry were satisfied overall with the VET system, somewhat lower than the all-industry average of 73 per cent. Within the Other Services industry 81 per cent of students reported job-related benefits from their training (for example, getting a job or promotion or expanding or setting up their business). This is higher than the all industry average of 72 per cent. Figure 14.5: Student and employers outcomes of vocational training Other Services Satisfied Employers satisfied with VET system Students reporting jobrelated benefit from VET Satisfied Not-Satisfied 67% Benefit All- industry comparison 33% No Benefit 81% 19% Employers satisfied with VET system Students reporting jobrelated benefit from VET Not-Satisfied 73% Benefit 72% 27% No Benefit 28% Source: NCVER (2013) Survey of Employers' Use and Views of the VET System; NCVER (2012) Student Outcomes Survey Certain population groups face barriers to participation in education, training and the workforce. This section considers the proportion of industry training undertaken by different learner groups, and to what extent they are represented in Other Services training when compared with all-industry averages. Female students were well-represented in Other Services when compared with all-industry averages, comprising 53 per cent of enrolments compared with 44 per cent across all industries. This varies by sub-sector, however, with male students accounting for a majority of training in the Repair and 164 Note: Employer satisfaction and student outcomes data for this industry is indicative only. Due to small sample sizes at the State level, data for individual industries is presented at national level. Employer satisfaction and student outcomes data for “All industries” is at Victorian level. Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 137 Maintenance sub-sector, while females represented a majority of Personal and Other Services training in 2013. Students aged 25 years and older were relatively under-represented in Other Services Training in 2013, accounting for 37 per cent of training delivery compared with an all-industry average of 56 per cent. Figure 14.6: Proportion of enrolments by student group, government subsidised, 2013 Other Services Indigenous 1% 1% 22% CALD Disability All industries 27% 7% 6% Female Unemployed Age 25+ 138 44% 53% 22% 25% 37% Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 56% Professional, Scientific and Technical Services Professional, Scientific and Technical Services engages in scientific research, architecture, engineering, computer systems design, law, accountancy, advertising, market research, management and other consultancy, veterinary science and professional photography. Training Snapshot There were 10,500 government subsidised enrolments related to the Professional, Scientific and Technical Services industry in 2013. In addition, there were 1,500 TAFE fee for service enrolments related to the industry, a growth of 18 per cent since 2012. In 2013, reported completions for courses related to the Professional, Scientific and Technical Services industry, was 4,100, a 1 per cent increase since 2012. Table 15.1: Vocational training enrolments and completions, year on year changes, 2008–2013 Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 13,200 13,000 12,800 12,400 12,100 10,500 Year-on-year % change - -1% -1% -3% -3% -13% Year-on-year % change (all industries) - 3% 18% 31% 14% -11% 2,100 1,100 900 1,000 1,300 1,500 Year-on-year % change - -47% -21% 10% 32% 18% Year-on-year % change (all industries) - 15% 3% 0% 18% -9% 3,900 3,400 3,500 3,700 4,100 4,100 Year-on-year % change - -13% 2% 6% 11% 1% Year-on-year % change (all industries) - 5% 19% 33% 29% -15% Government subsidised enrolments TAFE fee for service enrolments Completions Note: all enrolment data is government subsidised, unless otherwise stated. Completions data includes all reported government subsidised and fee for service activity by all providers (TAFE and non-TAFE). TAFE Institutes accounted for a majority of training delivery in this industry, 93 per cent. This compared with an average of 37 per cent TAFE provision across all industries. Apprenticeships comprised a small proportion of industry training, 3 per cent of 2013 enrolments. Ninety-nine per cent of enrolments aligned to the Professional, Scientific and Technical Services industry were at Certificate III or above, higher than the all industry average of 90 per cent. This is in line with high skilled nature of the industry’s workforce. The Professional, Scientific and Technical Services workforce recorded the second highest proportion of employees with a Bachelor degree or higher, accounting for about half of the workforce. Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 139 Training Dashboard Figure 15.1: Share of industry enrolments compared against all industries, 2013 Table 15.2: Top five courses ranked by 2013 enrolments, government subsidised, 2012–2013 Table 15.3: Top five occupations ranked by 2013 enrolments, government subsidised, 2012–2013 Course 2012 2013 Advanced Diploma of Building Design (Architectural) 1,800 1,600 Certificate IV in Engineering 900 1,300 Advanced Diploma of Legal Practice Advanced Diploma of Engineering Technology 650 550 650 500 Architectural, Building and Surveying Technicians Mechanical Engineering Draftspersons and Technicians Graphic and Web Designers, and Illustrators Other Miscellaneous Technicians and Trades Workers - 500 Conveyancers and Legal Executives Diploma of Graphic Design Occupation 2012 2013 2,300 2,200 2,000 2,200 1,500 1,200 950 950 1,200 950 Industry Overview The Professional, Scientific and Technical Services industry contributed an estimated $29 billion to the Victorian economy in 2012-13, around 9 per cent of Victoria's total gross value added and the second highest contributor across all industry groups. Over the five years to June 2013, there has been an average annual growth of 9 per cent.165 There were an estimated 66,900 businesses operating in Victoria's Professional, Scientific and Technical Services industry at June 2012, 12 per cent of all businesses across the state. The Professional, Scientific and Technical Services industry had a high concentration of small businesses (57 per cent sole traders; 40 per cent employing 1-19 employees). Thirty-one per cent of businesses had a turnover of $200,000 or more per annum. This is lower than the average across all industries at 36 per cent.166 The Professional, Scientific and Technical Services industry is the fourth largest in Victoria in terms of employment, with around 247,600 employees, equating to approximately 9 per cent of all employment in Victoria. The industry has experienced rapid employment growth over the past five years to 2012-13, increasing by approximately 33,500 employees which represented a growth of 16 per cent. The outlook over the next five years for Professional, Scientific and Technical Services is for employment to continue to grow, increasing by an estimated 6 per cent (or 15,200 jobs).167 165 Australian Bureau of Statistics (2013) Australian National Accounts: State Accounts, CT NO: 5220.0 166 Australian Bureau of Statistics (2012) Counts of Australian Businesses, including Entries and Exits, Jun 2008 to Jun 2012, CT NO: 8165.0 167 Centre of Policy Studies, Monash University (2013) Labour Force Projections 140 Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 The Professional and Scientific Services sub-sector accounted for the largest proportion of industry employment, 80 per cent of the total. This was followed by the Computer Services sub-sector, with 20 per cent of employment in the industry. Figure 15.2: Share of employment by industry sub-sector, 2012–13 The Professional, Scientific and Technical Services industry has been one the fastest growing industries in the Victorian economy in terms of both output and employment. Influences on this growth have included the demand for professional services by other industries, e.g. the mining sector; the increased demand for skilled labour within the economy; the increased use of outsourcing by firms to acquire business services inputs; and technological developments. 168 These trends are likely to lead to further increases in the output and employment shares of the relatively higher-skilled parts of the industry. At the same time, the shift from the investment to the production phase of the mining boom and the increasing ability to trade some services internationally are likely to see ongoing changes in the nature of the demand for domestically produced business services. Advances in information technology are having a marked effect on the size and growth of different firms within the industry. Internet connections have become faster and more reliable, and mobile internet has become increasingly widespread due to the rollout of 3G and 4G wireless internet networks and the popularity of smartphones and tablet computers. This presents both a competitive pressure for the industry as well an opportunity for change in relation to internal processes in order to raise efficiency and remain competitive. Higher level managerial skills, pathways into Higher Education and the development of innovation and entrepreneurship will also be important in supporting the industry into the future.169 The Training Alignment section of this industry profile explores how the training market is tracking against skills needs. 168 Manalo, J & Orsmond, D (2013) The Business Services Sector, Bulletin, March Quarter 2013 169 IBSA (2013) Business Services Industry Escan 2013 Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 141 Training Alignment Summary 2013 Training Alignment an estimated Industry needs Specialised and/or skill shortage occupations 10,500 + 16,000 vocational training enrolments in 2013 employees per year required over the five years to 2017-18 29% 7% of enrolments in courses aligned to specialised occupations of enrolments in courses aligned to occupations experiencing skills shortage The top three employing regions accounted for These three regions accounted for Skills needs in regions 60% 79% of industry enrolments in 2013 of industry employment Employer and student needs 71% 74% of industry employers were satisfied with the VET system of students reported job-related benefits from VET Alignment to industry needs This section explores the alignment between vocational training and industry needs by comparing projected annual employment needs in the Professional, Scientific and Technical Services industry with 2013 enrolments levels for qualifications aligned with the industry. It is important to note that, the Professional, Scientific and Technical Services industry workforce has a high proportion of higher education qualifications, reflecting the highly skilled nature of the industry. Table 15.4 highlights the top ten employing occupations170 in the Professional, Scientific and Technical Services industry. Projections presented in the table estimate average annual employment needs for this industry. The average annual employment needs include employment growth or decline and replacement demand171 by occupation for the next five years. Over the five years to 2017-18, average annual employment needs for the Professional, Scientific and Technical Services industry are expected to be approximately 16,000 per year. The three largest occupations by employment size (including both VET qualified and higher education workforces) were Accountants, Software and Application Programmers and Solicitors. Projected average annual employment needs over the five years to 2017-19 within the Professional, Scientific and Technical Services industry for these occupations are: 1,170 per annum for Accountants; 980 per annum for Software and Application Programmers; and 1,130 per annum for Solicitors. Table 15.4: Top ten occupations by employment, 2012–2013, and associated enrolments, 2013 Occupation 2012-13 employment Employment growth to 2017-18 Accountants 22,070 3,000 Software and Application Programmers 16,230 Solicitors 13,240 Graphic and Web Designers Management and Organisation Analysts 5-yr average annual employment needs VET enrolments 2013 1,170 * 1,700 980 - 1,960 1,130 - 9,310 1,440 600 1,200 7,290 1,290 480 10 Bookkeepers Architectural, Building and Surveying Technicians 6,630 390 310 * 6,360 -250 290 2,200 Civil Engineering Professionals 6,250 620 580 - Architects and Landscape Architecture 6,110 -700 60 - Secretaries 6,030 430 310 150 170 Occupations are listed at the ABS 4-digit ANZSCO Unit Group level 171 Forecast employment growth or decline is the expected change in the number of jobs within an occupation year to year. The period presented in the table from 2012-13 to 2017-18. Replacement demand is the number of existing workers that are forecast to leave the occupation through retirement, moving into a different industry or occupation or moving interstate etc. that require replacing to meet existing employment needs. 142 Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 Source: Centre of Policy Studies, Monash University (2013) Labour Force Projections, SVTS Note: Occupations aligned to VET qualifications are highlighted in blue. *VET qualifications not directly aligned to the Professional, Scientific and Technical Services industry and therefore outside the scope of this report. When comparing projected annual employment needs with 2013 enrolment levels, some broad messages can be established regarding the alignment between government subsidised enrolments in Professional, Scientific and Technical Services-related training and industry requirements. In 2013, Professional, Scientific and Technical Services industry enrolments appear to align well across a number of occupations. Training delivery aligned to Architectural, Building and Surveying Technicians and Graphic and Web Designers appears to be well-placed to meet expected average annual employment needs. Training aligned to the occupations Management and Organisation Analysts and Secretaires may need to increase from 2013 levels in order to meet projected annual employment needs. It is unclear, however, to what extent the skill needs of Management and Organisation Analysts are being met by higher education. Alignment to specialised and/or in shortage occupations and skill needs Vocational training related to occupations identified as specialised or experiencing skill shortages that enhance the productive capacity of the Victorian economy are a high priority for government investment. This section highlights training alignment to areas of strategic skill needs for the Professional, Scientific and Technical Services industry, including an analysis of enrolments in areas of identified skill shortages or aligned to specialised occupations172. The skills required to build competitive advantage in this environment relate to innovation and entrepreneurship skills including the ability to identify and manage intellectual property (IP), the development of new business models built on new and emerging business solutions, and technology commercialisation and demonstration.173 In particular, a recent national survey found that the most prominent skills gaps within the industry related to leadership, process and project management, analytical/strategic or critical thinking and technical skills, all of which support innovation and entrepreneurship.174 Technical skills and capabilities such as quantitative analysis and modelling, engineering expertise, research capacity and technical and creative design will continue to be core skills in the Professional, Scientific and Technical Services industry. Science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) knowledge is also critical for skills development in the industry.175 For the training market, there is a growing requirement for the development of higher-order skills that assist individuals to be more flexible, adaptable, creative, innovative and productive.176 Training also needs to focus on enhancing qualifications so that they keep pace with changes in ICT, particularly in relation to cloud computing, e-commerce and social marketing. Identified skills shortages in Professional, Scientific and Technical Services for 2013 include: Surveyor Electronics Engineer Electrical Engineering Draftsperson Electrical Engineer Mechanical Engineer Electrical Engineering Technician Skill shortage occupations also relevant to this industry: Construction Project Manager 172 DEECD’s 2013 listing of Victorian skills shortages is at the 6-digit ABS ANZSCO occupation level. 173 Allen Consulting Group (2012) The Future of Skills in Services in Victoria, report to DSDBI 174 Australian Institute of Management (2012) Australia’s Skills Gap 175 Allen Consulting Group (2012) The Future of Skills in Services in Victoria, report to DSDBI 176 IBSA (2013) Business Services Industry Escan 2013 Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 143 The proportion of enrolments in courses related to specialised or in shortage occupations accounted for 31 per cent of Professional, Scientific and Technical Services industry training, lower than the all industry average of 41 per cent. Enrolments in courses aligned to specialised / in shortage occupations have risen 4 per cent over 2012 to 2013, lower than the 14 per cent growth averaged across all industries. Table 15.5: Enrolments related to specialised and/or in shortage occupations, government subsidised, 2008–2013 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 3,500 3,200 3,100 3,100 3,100 3,200 Year-on-year % change - -9% -1% 0% -1% 4% Year-on-year % change (all industries) - 12% 13% 18% 19% 14% Specialised / in shortage Alignment to skill needs in regions This section considers training alignment with skills needs in regions by comparing the proportion of industry training within each region with the proportion of Professional, Scientific and Technical Services employment in the region. There has been a substantial increase in Professional, Scientific and Technical Services business establishments locating in the Melbourne CBD and the outer growth municipalities of Melton, Wyndham and Cardinia. Some of the major industrial areas such as Monash, Kingston and `Knox also have high concentrations of Professional, Scientific and Technical Services establishments which focus on supplying industrial sectors such as manufacturing, transport, distribution, logistics and warehousing. In regional Victoria, over the last decade industry business establishments have increased in areas such as the Surf Coast (Torquay and Anglesea), Wodonga, Hepburn, Bendigo and Ballarat. Declines have occurred in Latrobe, East Gippsland (Morwell and Traralgon), Baw Baw (Warragul) and Geelong.177 The Professional, Scientific and Technical Services industry workforce appears to be highly concentrated in metropolitan Melbourne in 2012–13, representing 86 per cent of employment. The highest concentration of employment within the Professional, Scientific and Technical Services industry in Victoria is within Inner Metropolitan (53 per cent), Eastern Metropolitan (17 per cent), and Southern Metropolitan (10 per cent).178 Figure 15.3: Regional share of employment and enrolments Source: ABS (2011) Census of Population and Housing, SVTS Enrolments related to the Professional, Scientific and Technical Services industry were also mainly concentrated in the metropolitan area, particularly the Inner Metropolitan region which reported the largest number of enrolments (4,000) in 2013. Given that the highest concentration of Professional, Scientific and Technical Services related employment was in the metropolitan regions, this suggests that training delivery and regional requirements may be well-aligned. 177 DSDBI (2012) Business location in Victoria: A decade of change 178 144 Regional distribution data are estimates only based on ABS (2011) Census of Population and Housing Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 In regional Victoria, most of the enrolments were concentrated in Geelong and Hume, with 5 per cent and 4 per cent of total enrolments respectively. Table 15.6: Enrolments by region, ranked by 2013 enrolments, government subsidised, 2008–2013 Region 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Inner Metropolitan 4,100 4,200 4,100 4,100 4,200 4,000 Eastern Metropolitan 1,900 1,900 2,300 2,200 2,000 1,600 Northern Metropolitan 1,800 1,900 1,900 1,900 1,800 1,500 Western Metropolitan 1,300 1,400 1,400 1,300 1,100 850 Southern Metropolitan 1,400 1,300 1,100 950 850 750 Geelong and Surrounds 600 600 550 550 550 500 Hume 700 700 650 550 700 450 Great South Coast 450 200 100 150 200 350 Loddon Mallee South 200 250 200 200 200 200 Central Highlands 200 200 150 150 200 200 Gippsland 250 250 250 200 150 100 Loddon Mallee North 80 90 70 80 80 80 Wimmera Southern Mallee 10 20 10 10 10 - Figure 15.4: Regional share of enrolments, 2008 and 2013 Alignment to employers and students: Employer satisfaction and student outcomes This section focuses on the degree of satisfaction with training provision and employment outcomes by both employers and students. Drawing on results from the NCVER Student Outcomes Survey 2012 and Survey of Employers' Use and Views of the VET System 2013179 insights can be gained into the performance of the VET system in meeting the needs of the Professional, Scientific and Technical Services industry. Professional, Scientific and Technical Services industry employers were satisfied overall with the VET system, with 71 per cent of employers stating that they were satisfied. This is slightly higher than the all industry average (73 per cent). 179 Note: Employer satisfaction and student outcomes data for this industry is indicative only. Due to small sample sizes at the State level, data for individual industries is presented at national level. Employer satisfaction and student outcomes data for “All industries” is at Victorian level. Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 145 Within the Professional, Scientific and Technical Services industry 74 per cent of students reported jobrelated benefits (for example, getting a job or promotion, expanding or setting-up their business) from their training. This is higher than the all industry average (72 per cent). Figure 15.5: Student and employer outcomes of vocational training Professional, Scientific and Technical Services Satisfied Employers satisfied with VET system Students reporting jobrelated benefit from VET 74% Satisfied Not-Satisfied 71% Benefit All- industry comparison 29% Employers satisfied with VET system 26% Students reporting jobrelated benefit from VET No Benefit Not-Satisfied 73% Benefit 72% 27% No Benefit 28% Source: NCVER (2013) Survey of Employers' Use and Views of the VET System; NCVER (2012) Student Outcomes Survey Certain population groups face barriers to participation in education, training and the workforce. This section considers the proportion of industry training undertaken by different learner groups, and to what extent they are represented in Professional, Scientific and Technical Services training when compared with all-industry averages. Students aged 25 years and older were relatively under-represented in this industry. They made up 41 per cent of enrolments for this industry, significantly less than the all industries proportion (56 per cent). Figure 15.64: Proportion of enrolments by student group, government subsidised, 2013 146 Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 Case Study Engineers Australia Ministerial Roundtable Engineers Australia is the professional organisation for engineers in Australia, representing 100,000 members nationally, of which 23,000 reside in Victoria. DEECD have been working closely with the organisation to resolve some of the challenges the industry faces. Issues DEECD Market Facilitation Outcomes The following are the key priorities for Engineers Australia: Vocational training is an important feeder for paraprofessionals into the sector and about 13 per cent of students use this pathway. Given the issues surrounding the profession, Engineers Australia requested a dialogue with the Minister for Higher Education and Skills, the Deans of Engineering at Victorian universities and industry representatives to discuss new innovation and strategies for improving uptake. Eight Deans of Engineering from Victorian universities attended the Roundtable. Discussion around the work being undertaken by each university in the field of engineering innovation. Discussion around what is being done to make engineering an attractive vocational option for students, and encouraging women into the profession. Highlighted the need for more collaboration between industry and higher educational institutions. Highlighted the need to promote engineering as an ‘indemand occupation.’ Leading conversations around urban growth Engineering in advanced manufacturing Leading professionals in engineering. The organisation identified the following issues: Engineers commence at Advanced Diploma and go to Bachelor of Engineering then higher qualifications. Building pathways is crucial and there are greater opportunities to leverage these. Some companies are losing staff to the mining industries in Western Australia, leading to shortage issues. A pipeline of investment in engineering projects is required to support planning and workload within the sector. Additive manufacturing now involves convergence of advanced ICT skills and sufficient training has to be provided to support this. New emergence of highly mobile workforces (globally) within the same company. Pulling together project teams as a way of working requires leadership skills within the teams. Younger and older workers are increasing amongst the Engineering workforce. Mid-range workers are decreasing with 457 visas being utilised to address this demographic bubble. Responding to the needs of the industry, DEECD arranged a ministerial roundtable, bringing together stakeholders through Engineers Australia, for direct consultations with the Deans of Engineering from Victorian universities. Industry and higher educational institutions have indicated that they are open to similar dialogues in the future and are keen to continue to collaborate in kind. Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 147 Public Administration and Safety Training Snapshot There were 8,100 government subsidised enrolments related to Public Administration and Safety in 2013, representing a decline of 3 per cent when compared with 2012. This was partly offset by an increase in TAFE fee for service enrolments, which grew by 29 per cent in 2013, to 900. In 2013, reported completions for courses related to the industry, were 6,100, a 19 per cent increase since 2012. Public Administration and Safety covers Federal, State or Local Government legislative, executive and judicial activities and includes providing physical, social, economic and general public safety and security services; and in enforcing regulations. Table 16.1: Vocational training enrolments and completions, year on year changes, 2008–2013 Public Administration and Safety 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Government subsidised enrolments 4,000 3,200 5,500 7,900 8,400 8,100 Year-on-year % change - -19% 70% 44% 6% -3% Year-on-year % change (all industries) - 3% 18% 31% 14% -11% 1,800 1,700 1,500 900 700 900 Year-on-year % change - -1% -13% -41% -26% 29% Year-on-year % change (all industries) - 15% 3% 0% 18% -9% 2,600 2,900 3,300 4,900 5,100 6,100 Year-on-year % change - 9% 13% 51% 4% 19% Year-on-year % change (all industries) - 5% 19% 33% 29% -15% TAFE fee for service enrolments Completions Note: all enrolment data is government subsidised, unless otherwise stated. Completions data includes all reported government subsidised and fee for service activity by all providers (TAFE and non-TAFE). Private training providers accounted for 72 per cent of all enrolments, which is higher than the allindustry average of 59 per cent. Apprenticeship enrolments comprise a small proportion of industry training, 1 per cent in 2013. Traineeships are also relatively low in this industry, accounting for 3 per cent of training delivery. A relatively high proportion of training delivery in this industry was at Certificate I-II level in 2013, 43 per cent compared with an average across all industries of 10 per cent. Training Dashboard Figure 16.1: Share of industry enrolments compared against all industries, 2013 148 Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 Table 16.2: Top five courses ranked by 2013 enrolments, government subsidised, 2012–2013 Table 16.3: Top five occupations ranked by 2013 enrolments, government subsidised, 2012–2013 Course 2012 2013 Occupation 2012 2013 Certificate II in Security Operations 2,600 3,200 Security Officers and Guards 5,500 5,000 Certificate III in Security Operations 2,600 1,600 Court and Legal Clerks 400 1,300 300 700 Welfare Support Employees 750 400 90 550 Prison Officers 250 350 750 400 Fire and Emergency Employees 300 250 Certificate IV in Justice Diploma of Justice Advanced Diploma of Justice Industry Overview The Public Administration and Safety industry contributed an estimated $13.7 billion to the Victorian economy in 2012-13, around 4 per cent of Victoria's total gross value added. Over the five years to June 2013, this represents an average annual growth of 8 per cent.180 There are an estimated 1,800 businesses operating in Victoria's Public Administration and Safety industry. The industry has a high concentration of small businesses (55 per cent sole traders; 35 per cent employing 1-19 employees)181. Thirty-seven per cent of businesses had a turnover of $200,000 or more per annum. This was higher than the average across all industries at 36 per cent.182 Approximately 133,300 people were employed in Victoria's Public Administration and Safety industry, equating to about 5 per cent of all employment in Victoria. The industry has seen employment growth of approximately 19 per cent over the last five years, equating to around 21,600 employees. The outlook over the next five years for Public Administration and Safety is for employment to continue to grow, increasing by an estimated 2 per cent (or 2,000 jobs).183 The Public Administration sub-sector accounted for the largest proportion of industry employment, 66 per cent of the total. This was followed by the Public Order, Safety and Regulatory Services sector, with 30 per cent of employment in the industry. Figure 16.2: Share of employment by industry sub-sector, 2012–13 Key drivers of changing skills and training needs 180 181 182 The industry is under pressure to maintain, and in some cases, increase, service demand within smaller operational budgets. Efficiency measures included reduction of staff and lowered organisational training budgets. One way organisations are adapting to these changes is by increasing the use of technology where it can lead to improved productivity. New technologies are expected to influence workforce capability and Australian Bureau of Statistics (2013) Australian National Accounts: State Accounts, CT NO: 5220.0 Note that the ABS Counts of Australian Businesses, including Entries and Exits, 2012, excludes general government. Australian Bureau of Statistics (2012) Counts of Australian Businesses, including Entries and Exits, Jun 2008 to Jun 2012, CT NO: 8165.0 183 Centre of Policy Studies, Monash University (2013) Labour Force Projections Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 149 skills needs over the coming years. In order to adapt to the use of new technologies, organisations are striving to up-skill and re-skill employees and are continually exploring ways to maximise use of new technologies to meet operational needs. There has also been a recent drive to increase multi-skilling of staff to enhance workforce versatility. However, the industry has been cautious about balancing the need for versatility with the cost of multiskilling staff. The frequency of natural disasters affecting Victoria in recent years has led to increased demand for a capable and flexible workforce. There has also been a push for more professionalism within the sector that is influencing training a focus on leadership development, particularly within the police force and across the fire and emergency services sector. An ageing workforce is of particular concern to the Public Administration and Safety industry and requires succession planning and strategies to maintain corporate knowledge. Consequently, it is important to attract and retain young and new entrants into the industry. Within the Public Safety subsector, it may be possible to provide necessary training to the operational employees who seek deskbased jobs within their organisations. These drivers have prompted a number of changes to training delivery within the industry and the Training Alignment section of this industry profile explores how the training market is tracking against skills needs. Training Alignment Summary 2013 Training Alignment An estimated Industry needs Specialised and/or skill shortage occupations Skills needs in regions + 8,500 employees per year required over the five years to 2017-18 4% 1% of enrolments in courses aligned to specialised occupations of enrolments in courses aligned to occupations experiencing skills shortage The top three employing regions accounted for These three regions accounted for 56% of industry employment Employer and student needs 8,100 vocational training enrolments in 2013 57% of industry enrolments in 2013 68% 78% of industry employers were satisfied with the VET system of students reported job-related benefits from VET Alignment to industry needs This section explores the alignment between vocational training and industry needs by comparing projected annual employment needs in the Public Administration and Safety industry with 2013 enrolments levels for qualifications aligned with the industry. Highlighted in Table 16.4 are the top ten employing occupations184 that align to the Public Administration and Safety industry. Employment projections presented in the table estimate the expected average annual employment needs. The average annual employment needs includes employment growth or decline and replacement demand185 by occupation for the next five years. Over the next five years within the Public Administration and Safety industry the average annual employment needs is expected to be approximately 8,500 per year. Within Public Administration and Safety, the top three largest occupations by employment size include Police, Security Officers and Guards and Aged and Disabled Carers. 184 4 -digit ABS, ANZSCO level 185 Forecast employment growth or decline is the expected change in the number of jobs within an occupation year to year. The period presented in the table from 2012-13 to 2017-18.Replacement demand is the number of existing workers that are forecast to leave the occupation through retirement, moving into a different industry or occupation or moving interstate etc. that require replacing to meet existing employment needs. 150 Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 Projected average annual employment needs over the next five years within Public Administration and Safety for these occupations are: 640 per annum for Police; 610 per annum for Security Officers & Guards; and 350 per annum for Aged & Disabled Carers. Table 16.4: Top ten occupations by employment, 2012–2013, and associated enrolments, 2013 2012-13 employment Occupation Police Employment growth to 2017-18 13,310 5-yr average annual employment need VET enrolments 2013 690 640 - Security Officers and Guards 9,440 540 610 5,000 Aged and Disabled Carers 6,280 1,030 350 * Inspectors and Regulatory Officers Contract, Program and Project Administrators 5,320 290 290 150 5,110 1,000 310 100 General Clerks 4,870 350 220 * Fire and Emergency Workers 3,480 780 450 250 Inquiry Clerks 3,160 270 160 - Other Miscellaneous Labourers 3,130 340 160 40 Intelligence and Policy Analysts 2,580 540 230 30 Source: Centre of Policy Studies, Monash University (2013) Labour Force Projections, SVTS Note: Occupations aligned to VET qualifications are highlighted in blue. *VET qualifications not directly aligned to the Public Administration and Safety industry and therefore outside the scope of this chapter. When comparing projected annual employment needs with 2013 enrolment levels, some broad messages can be established regarding the alignment between government subsidised enrolments in Public Administration and Safety related training and industry requirements. A number of the top employing occupations in this industry are non-VET occupations, or aligned with both VET and higher education qualification (including Police, Contract, Program and Project Administrators, Inspectors and Regulatory Officers and Intelligence and Policy Analysts). Enrolments aligned to Security Officers and Guards appear well placed to meet anticipated average annual employment needs for this occupation. Enrolments aligned to Fire and Emergency Workers and Other Miscellaneous Labourers may need to increase from 2013 levels in order to meet anticipated industry demand for these skills. Alignment to specialised and/or in shortage occupations and skill needs Vocational training related to occupations identified as specialised or experiencing skill shortages that enhance the productive capacity of the Victorian economy are a high priority for government investment. This section highlights training alignment to areas of strategic skill needs for the Public Administration and Safety industry, including an analysis of enrolments in areas of identified skill shortages or aligned to specialised occupations186. No skills shortages have been identified in occupations directly aligned to the Public Administration and Safety industry. However, specialised occupations of relevance to this industry include Fire and Emergency Employees. As a major employer of health care and community service employees, the industry is also affected by shortages in Health Care occupations such as Aged and Disabled Carers and Welfare Workers. Enrolments in courses aligned to specialised / in shortage occupations in Public Administration and Safety have fallen over 2012–2013, in contrast to the 14 per cent increase averaged across all industries. Table 16.5 : Enrolments related to specialised and/or in shortage occupations, government subsidised, 2008–2013 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1,500 1,300 1,600 400 400 350 Year-on-year % change - -9% 20% -75% 4% -16% Year-on-year % change (all industries) - 12% 13% 18% 19% 14% Specialised / in shortage 186 DEECD’s 2013 listing of Victorian skills shortages is at the 6-digit ABS ANZSCO occupation level. Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 151 Alignment to skills needs in regions This section considers training alignment with skills needs in regions by comparing the proportion of industry training within each region with the proportion of Public Administration and Safety employment in the region. Metropolitan Melbourne had around 60 per cent of Public Administration and Safety establishments, with the remaining 40 per cent located in regional Victoria. Public Administration and Safety establishments are widely distributed throughout the metropolitan area. In regional Victoria, Public Administration and Safety establishments are located in the major population centres, including Greater Geelong, Greater Bendigo, Ballarat, Latrobe, East Gippsland, Mildura, Wellington, Greater Shepparton, Wangaratta and Wodonga.187 In 2013, 72 per cent of employment in the Public Administration and Safety industry was located within metropolitan Melbourne. The highest concentration of employment within the Public Administration and Safety industry in Victoria is within Inner Metropolitan (35 per cent), Southern Metropolitan (11 per cent), and Eastern Metropolitan (10 per cent) regions.188 Figure 16.3: Regional employment and enrolments Source: ABS (2011) Census of Population and Housing, SVTS Public Administration and Safety enrolments were also mainly concentrated in the metropolitan area. The Inner Metropolitan region had the largest number of enrolments with 2,900 in 2013. While training alignment to locall employment needs seems strong in most metropolitan regions, there some discrepancies within Northern and Eastern Metro. The former reported a larger proportion of enrolments compared to employment needs, while the latter reported the opposite – a lower share of enrolments compared to employment. Training alignment to employment needs appears to be stronger in regional Victoria. Table 16.6: Enrolments by region, ranked by 2013 enrolments, government subsidised, 2008–2013 Region 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Inner Metropolitan 150 150 1,400 4,400 4,300 2,900 Northern Metropolitan 350 600 650 950 1,400 1,700 Southern Metropolitan 850 300 550 1,000 1,100 1,300 Western Metropolitan - 50 250 300 100 400 Hume - - 100 250 400 400 550 550 650 300 350 350 30 20 80 150 350 300 - - 20 150 150 250 Eastern Metropolitan Geelong and Surrounds Loddon Mallee South 187 DSDBI (2012) Business location in Victoria: A decade of change 188 Regional Distribution are estimates only based on Centre of Policy Studies, Monash University (2013) Labour Force Projections & ABS (2011) Census of Population & Housing 152 Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 Region 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 10 10 90 250 150 150 Gippsland 150 40 40 40 80 150 Central Highlands 150 100 50 150 150 100 - - - - - 30 Loddon Mallee North Wimmera Southern Mallee Great South Coast 40 30 20 10 20 20 Note that regional totals will be greater than total industry enrolments due to some enrolments falling within more than one region of training delivery. Figure 16.4: Regional share of enrolments, 2008 and 2013 Alignment to employers and students: Employer satisfaction and student outcomes Training alignment in this section focuses on the degree of satisfaction with training provision and employment outcomes by both employers and students. Drawing on results from the NCVER Student Outcomes Survey 2012 and Survey of Employers' Use and Views of the VET System 2013189 insights can be gained on the performance of the VET system in meeting the needs of the Public Administration and Safety industry. Employers from the Public Administration and Safety industry were satisfied overall with the VET system, with 68 per cent of employers stating that they were satisfied. This is however somewhat lower than the all industry average (73 per cent). DEECD will continue to work with national and state groups to enhance the alignment between employer needs and training delivery. Students who report a job-related benefit following completion of their training qualification were able to get a job, change jobs, get promoted, expand or set-up their business. Within the Public Administration and Safety industry 78 per cent of students reported job-related benefits from their training. This is higher than the all-industry average (72 per cent). 189 Note: Employer satisfaction and student outcomes data for this industry is indicative only. Due to small sample sizes at the State level, data for individual industries is presented at national level. Employer satisfaction and student outcomes data for “All industries” is at Victorian level. Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 153 Figure 16.5: Student and employer outcomes of vocational training Public Administration and Safety Satisfied Employers satisfied with VET system Students reporting jobrelated benefit from VET Satisfied Not-Satisfied 68% Benefit All- industry comparison 32% No Benefit 78% 22% Employers satisfied with VET system Students reporting jobrelated benefit from VET Not-Satisfied 73% Benefit 72% 27% No Benefit 28% Source: NCVER Survey of Employers' Use and Views of the VET System 2013 and NCVER Student Outcomes Survey 2012 Certain population groups face barriers to participation in education, training and the workforce. This section considers the proportion of industry training undertaken by different learner groups, and to what extent they are represented in Public Administration and Safety industry training when compared with all-industry averages. Culturally and Linguistically Diverse (CALD) students were relatively well represented in Public Administration and Safety training. The group comprised 35 per cent of enrolments for this industry, higher than the average across all industries (27 per cent). Unemployed students were relatively well represented as well, accounting for 43 per cent of industry enrolments, higher than the all industry average of 25 per cent. In contrast, female students were relatively under-represented. Females comprised 26 per cent of enrolments for the Public Administration and Safety industry, significantly less than the average across all industries of 44 per cent. Figure 16.6: Enrolments by student group, government subsidised, 2013 154 Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services Training Snapshot Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services includes the renting and hiring of tangible or intangible assets and related services and includes the provision of real estate services such as selling, renting and/or buying real estate for others, managing real estate for others and appraising real estate The total number of government subsidised enrolments related to the Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services industry was 1,700 in 2013, a decrease of 25 per cent on 2012. This decline may have resulted from recent economic conditions and uncertainty around the property market. There were 700 TAFE fee for service enrolments related to the Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services industry in 2013, a decrease of 6 per cent since 2012. In 2013, there were 400 completions in courses related to this industry. Completions have increased by 8 per cent since 2012, in contrast to the declining average industry trend. Table 17.1: Vocational training enrolments and completions, year on year changes, 2008–2013 Rental, Hiring and Real Estate 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Government subsidised enrolments 600 540 1,000 1,600 2,300 1,700 Year-on-year % change 7% 51% 56% 48% -25% Year-on-year % change (all industries) 3% 18% 31% 14% -11% TAFE fee for service enrolments 100 2,000 2,300 1,600 700 700 Year-on-year % change 1852% 17% -32% -53% -6% Year-on-year % change (all industries) 15% 3% 0% 18% -9% Completions 140 450 450 650 400 400 Year-on-year % change 217% -3% 50% -40% 8% Year-on-year % change (all industries) 5% 19% 33% 29% -15% Note: all enrolment data is government subsidised, unless otherwise stated. Completions data includes all reported government subsidised and fee for service activity by all providers (TAFE and non-TAFE). TAFE institutes accounted for a majority of training delivery in this industry, 52 per cent. This compared with an average of 37 per cent TAFE provision across all industries. Private training providers accounted for the remaining 48 per cent of Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services training delivery. Apprenticeships in this industry are low, with just 100 enrolments in 2013. All enrolments within the Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services industry were at Certificate III or above, higher than the all-industry average of 90 per cent. Training Dashboard Figure 17.1: Share of industry enrolments compared against all industries, 2013 Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 155 Table 17.2: Occupations ranked by 2013 enrolments, government subsidised, 2012–2013 Occupation 2012 Real Estate Sales Agent Other Miscellaneous Clerical and Administrative Workers Table 17.3: Courses ranked by 2013 enrolments, government subsidised, 2012–2013 2013 2,300 1,700 10 20 Course Certificate IV in Property Services (Real Estate) Diploma of Property Services (Asset and Facility Management) Diploma of Facility Management 2012 2013 2,200 1,700 20 30 10 20 Industry Overview The Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services industry contributed an estimated $8.8 billion to the Victorian economy in 2012-13, around 3 per cent of Victoria's total gross value added. Over the five years to June 2013, this represents an average annual growth of 5 per cent.190 The highest concentrations of businesses within the Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services industry were within Property Operators and Real Estate Services (90 per cent of all businesses) and Rental and Hiring Services (except Real Estate) (10 per cent of all businesses) sub-sectors. Twenty per cent of businesses have turnover of $200,000 or more per annum. This is lower than the average across all industries at 36 per cent.191 Approximately 44,700 people were employed in Victoria's Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services industry, equating to 2 per cent of total employment in Victoria. The industry has seen employment growth of approximately 6 per cent over the last five years, equating to around 2,500 employees. The outlook for this industry is for employment to continue to growth by an anticipated 5 per cent through to 2017-18 (around 2,300 jobs). The Property Operators and Real Estate Services sub-sector accounted for the largest proportion of industry employment, 79 per cent of the total. The Rental and Hiring Services (except Real Estate) subsector accounted for 21 per cent of industry employment. Figure 17.2: Share of employment by industry sub-sector, 2012–13 Property Operators and Real Estate Services 21% 79% Rental and Hiring Services (except Real Estate) Source: Centre of Policy Studies, Monash University (2013) Labour Force Projections Over the past five years, the Property Operators and Real Estate Services sub-sector has been exposed to some property market uncertainty. Lower growth in this sub-sector is due to reduced demand for properties from investors, commercial businesses and home owners, with deteriorating economic conditions, rising debt levels and tighter access to finance having directly affected property investment192. Improvements to economic and financial conditions, and steady population growth, is expected to drive domestic property investment moving forwards. Residential and property sales and leasing volumes are forecast to diverge, with residential demand decreasing temporarily. However, the availability of higher density residential property is expected to increase as the Construction industry and governments respond to growing urbanisation. Urban growth boundaries, high density development planning 190 Australian Bureau of Statistics (2013) Australian National Accounts: State Accounts, CT NO: 5220.0 191 Australian Bureau of Statistics (2012) Counts of Australian Businesses, including Entries and Exits, Jun 2008 to Jun 2012, CT NO: 8165.0 192 IBISWorld (2013) Real Estate Services, Australia 156 Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 approval processes, stamp duty costs and housing supply will be key influences on these growth patterns in Victoria193. Improvements in labour productivity across the industry will be important in driving future growth and profitability. Changing business models in the industry have made management capabilities more important and will support the generation of future returns and productivity benefits. The Training Alignment section of this industry profile explores how the training market is tracking against skills needs. Training Alignment Training Alignment Summary 2013 an estimated +2,500 Industry needs Specialised and/or skill shortage occupations employees per year required over the five years to 2017-18 1,700 vocational training enrolments in 2013 There were no specialised occupations aligned to this industry There were no skills shortage occupations aligned to this industry The top three employing regions accounted for These three regions accounted for Skills needs in regions 64% of industry employment Employer and student needs 87% of industry enrolments in 2013 73% 76% of industry employers were satisfied with the VET system of students reported job-related benefits from VET Alignment to industry needs This section explores the alignment between vocational training and industry needs by comparing projected annual employment needs in Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services with 2013 enrolment levels for qualifications aligned to the industry. Table 17.4 highlights the top ten employing occupations194 in the Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services industry. Forecasts presented in the table estimate average annual employment needs for this industry. Average annual employment needs include employment growth or decline and replacement demand195 by occupation for the next five years. 193 194 Over the five years to 2017-18, average annual employment needs for Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services are expected to be approximately 2,500 per year. The three largest occupations by employment size were Real Estate Sales Agents, Receptionists and Land Economists and Valuers. Projected average annual employment needs over the next five years within the Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services industry for these occupations are: 970 per annum for Real Estate Sales Agents; 120 per annum for Receptionists; and 110 per annum for Land Economists and Valuers. DSDBI (2013) Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services – Services Sector Industry Analysis Occupations are listed at the ABS 4-digit ANZSCO Unit Group level. Forecast employment growth or decline is the expected change in the number of jobs within an occupation year to year. The period presented in the table from 2012-13 to 2017-18. Replacement demand is the number of existing workers that are forecast to leave the occupation through retirement, moving into a different industry or occupation or moving interstate etc. that require replacing to meet existing employment needs. Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 157 195 Table 17.4: Top ten occupations by employment, 2012–2013, and associated enrolments, 2013 2012-13 Employment Occupation Real Estate Sales Agents 15,120 Employment Growth to 2017-18 5-yr average annual employment need VET enrolments 2013 1,320 970 1,700 Receptionists 2,510 170 120 * Land Economists and Valuers 1,910 -280 110 - Sales Assistants (General) 1,550 90 100 * General Clerks 1,250 90 60 * Office Managers 1,130 -50 20 * Other Sales Assistants and Salespersons Other Hospitality, Retail and Service Managers 1,080 160 70 - 1,020 200 70 - Accounting Clerks 1,000 110 40 * Secretaries 970 70 50 * Source: Centre of Policy Studies, Monash University (2013) Labour Force Projections, SVTS Note: Occupations aligned to VET qualifications are highlighted in blue. *VET qualifications not directly aligned to Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services and therefore outside the scope of this chapter. When comparing projected annual employment needs with 2013 enrolment levels, some broad messages can be established regarding the alignment between government subsidised enrolments in Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services-related training and industry requirements. 2013 training delivery aligned to Real Estate Sales Agents and Other Miscellaneous Clerical and Administrative Employees appears to be well-placed to meet expected average annual employment needs. Alignment to specialised and/or in shortage occupations and skill needs This section highlights training alignment to areas of strategic skill needs for the Rental, Hiring and Real Estate industry. While there were no enrolments aligned to specialised or in shortage occupations in 2013, skillsets that remain of primary importance in this highly dynamic industry include customer service, communication skills, digital literacy, planning and organising, sustainability and work safety196. To address emerging challenges and realise opportunities, the Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services industry will continue to have a strong focus on productivity, encouraging innovation and better utilisation of skills. In support of these goals, there is a need to enhance basic levels of literacy, numeracy and ICT proficiency across the industry, and to address the growing requirement for higher order skills that assist individuals to be more flexible, adaptable, innovative and productive. Strong communication and relationship building skills are also important in this client focused industry 197, while a particular importance is attached to enhancing management, employability and leadership skills. Alignment to skills needs in regions This section considers training alignment with skills needs in regions by comparing the proportion of industry training within each region with the proportion of Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services employment in the region. The highest concentration of employment within the Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services industry in Victoria was in the Inner Metropolitan (30 per cent), Eastern Metropolitan (17 per cent), and Southern Metropolitan (17 per cent) regions.198 196 CPSISC (2013) Environmental Scan 2013-14 197 Innovation and Business Skills Australia (2013) Business Services Industry Environment Scan 198 Regional distribution data are estimates only based on ABS (2011) Census of Population and Housing 158 Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 Figure 17.3: Regional share of employment and enrolments Employment (% of total) Enrolments (% of total) 45% 30% 25% 22% 17% 17% 9% 4% 0% Geelong & Surrounds 3% 1% 0% Great South Coast 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% Gippsland Central Wimmera Highlands Southern Mallee 3% 9% 6% 2% 1% 0% 2% Hume Loddon Mallee North Loddon Mallee South 0% 0% Eastern Metro Northern Southern Western Metro Metro Metro Inner Metro Source: ABS (2011) Census of Population and Housing, SVTS Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services employment was concentrated in the metropolitan areas. Similarly, Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services enrolments were also mainly concentrated in the metropolitan areas. The Eastern Metropolitan region attracted 45 per cent of all enrolments. The proportion of enrolments in Eastern Metropolitan and Southern Metropolitan far surpassed the proportion of employment in those regions, however this trend was reversed in Inner Metropolitan, Western Metropolitan and Northern Metropolitan where the proportion of employment was greater than enrolments. In regional Victoria, enrolments were concentrated in Hume, although industry employment was shared across all regions. Table 17.5: Enrolments by region, ranked by 2013 enrolments, government subsidised, 2008–2013 Region Eastern Metropolitan Southern Metropolitan Inner Metropolitan Northern Metropolitan 2008 150 2009 250 2010 550 2011 850 2012 1,200 2013 750 - 60 20 50 400 400 250 150 300 300 350 350 - - - 100 70 90 Hume 20 30 20 70 80 40 Gippsland 20 50 10 30 30 - - 10 - - 70 - Western Metropolitan Geelong and Surrounds 90 50 Note that regional totals will be greater than total industry enrolments due to some enrolments falling within more than one region of training delivery. Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 159 Figure 17.4: Regional share of enrolments, 2008 and 2013 Alignment to employers and students: Employer satisfaction and student outcomes This section focuses on the degree of satisfaction with training provision and employment outcomes by both employers and students. Drawing on results from the NCVER Student Outcomes Survey 2012 and Survey of Employers' Use and Views of the VET System 2013199 insights are gained on the performance of the VET system in meeting the needs of the Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services industry. Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services industry employers were satisfied overall with the VET system, with 73 per cent of employers stating that they were satisfied. This is in line with the all industry average (73 per cent). Students who reported a job-related benefit following completion of their training qualification were able to get a job, change jobs, get promoted, expand or set-up their business. Within the Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services industry 76 per cent of students reported job-related benefits from their training. This is higher than the all-industry average (72 per cent). Figure 17.5: Student and employer outcomes of vocational training Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services Satisfied Employers satisfied with VET system Students reporting jobrelated benefit from VET 76% Satisfied Not-Satisfied 73% Benefit All- industry comparison 27% Employers satisfied with VET system 24% Students reporting jobrelated benefit from VET No Benefit Not-Satisfied 73% Benefit 72% 27% No Benefit 28% Source: NCVER(2013) Survey of Employers' Use and Views of the VET System; NCVER (2012) Student Outcomes Survey Certain population groups face barriers to participation in education, training and the workforce. This section considers the proportion of industry training undertaken by different learner groups, and to what extent they are represented in Public Administration and Safety industry training when compared with all-industry averages. In 2013, women were relatively well-represented in Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services industry training when compared with average enrolment patterns across all industries. Female students comprised 60 per cent of enrolments, significantly more than the average across all industries (44 per cent). Students aged 25 and above were also well-represented in this industry, accounting for 64 per cent of 2013 enrolments compared with an all-industry average of 56 per cent. 199 Note: Employer satisfaction and student outcomes data for this industry is indicative only. Due to small sample sizes at the State level, data for individual industries is presented at national level. Employer satisfaction and student outcomes data for “All industries” is at Victorian level. 160 Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 Figure 17.6 Proportion of enrolments by student group, government subsidised, 2013 Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 161 Retail Trade Retail Trade involves the purchase and onselling, the commission-based buying, and the commission-based selling of goods, without significant transformation, to the general public Training Snapshot High growth in Retail Trade enrolments between 2008 and 2012 indicated a potential over-supply of graduates in certain courses. The Refocusing Vocational Training initiative in 2012 aimed to address this issue, and 2013 data showed a correction in terms of course enrolments aligned to Retail Trade. The total number of government subsidised enrolments related to the Retail Trade industry was 15,400 in 2013, a decline of 57 per cent when compared with 2012. This decline is in part due to a fall in traineeship numbers. Despite this significant decline, industry enrolments are now more closely aligned with employment needs. DEECD will monitor training in the Retail Trade industry through 2014 to ensure balance is maintained between training delivery and industry needs. There were 1,800 TAFE fee for service enrolments related to the Retail Trade industry, a decrease of 38 per cent since 2012. Reported completions in Retail Trade qualification were 9,000 in 2013. Table 18.1: Vocational training enrolments and completions, year on year changes, 2008–2013 Retail Trade 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Government subsidised enrolments 19,900 18,600 23,400 33,200 36,000 15,400 Year-on-year % change -6% 26% 42% 8% -57% Year-on-year % change (all industries) 3% 18% 31% 14% -11% TAFE fee for service enrolments 3,800 2,900 2,800 2,000 2,800 1,800 Year-on-year % change -22% -5% -29% 43% -38% Year-on-year % change (all industries) 15% 3% 0% 18% -9% Completions 8,900 10,200 11,900 14,700 21,400 9,000 Year-on-year % change 14% 16% 24% 46% -58% Year-on-year % change (all industries) 5% 19% 33% 29% -15% Note: all enrolment data is government subsidised, unless otherwise stated. Completions data includes all reported government subsidised and fee for service activity by all providers (TAFE and non-TAFE). Private training providers accounted for a majority of training delivery in this industry, 74 per cent. This compared with an average of 59 per cent across all industries. TAFE Institutes accounted for 24 per cent of training delivery, less than the all industries average of 37 per cent. Learn Local provision in this industry was 3 per cent of all delivery, close to the average across all industries. A relatively high proportion of Retail Trade industry training was aligned to traineeships, 48 per cent of training delivery in 2013 compared with an all-industry average of 13 per cent. Apprenticeships also accounted for a relatively high proportion of training in this industry, 13 per cent of training delivery compared with an all-industry average of 10 per cent. Training Dashboard Figure 18.1: Share of industry enrolments compared against all industries, 2013 162 Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 Table 18.2: Top five occupations ranked by 2013 enrolments, Table 18.3: Top five courses ranked by 2013 enrolments, government subsidised, 2012–2013 government subsidised, 2012–2013 Occupation 2012 Sales Assistants (General) 25,600 6,900 Pharmacy Sales Assistants 2,500 2,100 Retail Supervisors 3,400 1,800 Motor Mechanics Bakers and Pastrycooks 2013 1,200 1,600 550 850 Course 2012 Certificate III in Retail 15,700 4,200 2,300 1,900 2,700 1,300 1,000 9,500 1,300 1,100 Certificate III in Community Pharmacy Certificate IV in Retail Management Certificate III in Automotive Mechanical Technology Certificate II in Retail Operations 2013 Industry Overview The Retail Trade industry contributed an estimated $18.9 billion to the Victorian economy in 2012-13, around 6 per cent of Victoria's total gross value added. Over the five years to June 2013, this represented an average annual growth of 7 per cent.200 The industry has however experienced lower levels of growth in the past five years since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), with revenue affected by a weak global economy, uncertain consumer sentiment and subdued discretionary spending on non-essential goods. Approximately 327,600 people were employed in Victoria's Retail Trade industry, equating to 11 per cent of total employment in Victoria. The industry has seen employment growth of approximately 11 per cent over the last five years, equating to around 31,500 employees. The Store-Based Retail sub-sector accounted for the largest proportion of industry employment, 50 per cent of the total. This was followed by the Food Retailing sub-sector, with 35 per cent of employment in the industry. Figure 18.2: Share of employment by industry sub-sector, 2012–13 5% 3% Store-Based Retail Food Retail 7% 50% 35% Automotive Retail Non-Store Retailing Fuel Retailing Source: Centre of Policy Studies, Monash University (2013) Labour Force Projections 200 Online shopping has been strong in an otherwise subdued industry, and with faster internet speeds, higher internet penetration rates and improvements in security and reliability for online payment processing, the foundations have been laid for Australia’s next big growth industry. Retailers are also looking to streamline their supply chains, and cut costs. This is particularly evident in the increasing trend towards wholesale bypassing. There are increasing numbers of businesses that are becoming more vertically integrated, providing the full range of services from manufacturing/production to consumer retailing. Small and Medium Enterprises in particular, who represent the majority of businesses within the Retail industry, seek greater capacity to organise and negotiate flexible training content and delivery modes with training providers. They also seek support in providing supervision when managers have multiple Australian Bureau of Statistics (2013) Australian National Accounts: State Accounts, CT NO: 5220.0 Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 163 stores to manage; getting customised training that reflects the nature of smaller business operations; and better managing the administrative burden associated with training staff.201 Changes to the industry have prompted a number of changes to training delivery within Retail Trade and the Training Alignment section of this industry profile explores how the training market is tracking against skills needs. Training Alignment Training Alignment Summary 2013 an estimated Industry needs Specialised and/or skill shortage occupations Skills needs in regions 15,400 + 20,100 vocational training enrolments in 2013 employees per year required over the five years to 2017-18 16% 10% of enrolments in courses aligned to specialised occupations of enrolments in courses aligned to occupations experiencing skills shortage The top three employing regions accounted for These three regions accounted for 50% 52% of industry enrolments in 2013 of industry employment Employer and student needs 74% 75% of industry employers were satisfied with the VET system of students reported job-related benefits from VET Alignment to industry needs This section explores the alignment between vocational training and industry needs by comparing projected annual employment needs in Retail Trade with 2013 enrolment levels for qualifications aligned to the industry. Table 18.4 highlights the top ten employing occupations202 in the Retail Trade industry. Forecasts presented in the table estimate average annual employment needs for this industry. Average annual employment needs include employment growth or decline and replacement demand 203 by occupation for the next five years. Over the next five years, average annual employment needs for Retail Trade are expected to be approximately 20,000 per year. The top three largest occupations by employment size were Sales Assistants (General), Retail Managers and Checkout Operators. The estimated average annual employment needs over the next 5 years for these occupations are: 6,290 per annum for Sales Assistants (General); 1,510 per annum for Retail Managers; and 3,010 per annum for Checkout Operators. Table 18.4: Top ten occupations by employment, 2012–2013, and associated enrolments, 2013 Occupations 2012-13 Employment Employment growth to 2017-18 5-yr average annual employment needs VET enrolments 2013 Sales Assistants (General) 98,980 5,470 6,290 6,900 Retail Managers 38,530 2,940 1,510 - Checkout Operators 32,550 2,810 3,010 - Shelf Fillers 15,180 860 650 - 201 202 Australian Workforce and Productivity Agency (2013) Retail workforce issues paper Occupations are listed at the ABS 4-digit ANZSCO Unit Group level. Forecast employment growth or decline is the expected change in the number of jobs within an occupation year to year. The period presented in the table from 2012-13 to 2017-18. Replacement demand is the number of existing workers that are forecast to leave the occupation through retirement, moving into a different industry or occupation or moving interstate etc. that require replacing to meet existing employment needs. 164 Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 203 Occupations 2012-13 Employment Employment growth to 2017-18 5-yr average annual employment needs VET enrolments 2013 Retail Supervisors 8,980 1,170 670 1,800 Pharmacy Sales Assistants 7,640 380 480 2,100 Storepersons 7,510 410 320 * Motor Vehicle Salespersons Purchasing and Supply Logistics Clerks 6,570 420 380 300 4,570 390 210 * Accounting Clerks 4,070 470 180 Source: Centre of Policy Studies, Monash University (2013) Labour Force Projections, SVTS Note: Occupations aligned to VET qualifications are highlighted in blue. *VET qualifications not directly aligned to Retail Trade and therefore outside the scope of this chapter. * When comparing projected annual employment needs with 2013 enrolment levels, some broad messages can be established regarding the alignment between government subsidised enrolments in Retail Trade-related training and industry requirements. 2013 training delivery aligned to Sales Assistants, Retail Supervisors and Pharmacy Sales Assistants appears to be well-placed to meet, and in some cases surpass, expected average annual employment needs. Approximately 60 per cent of enrolments aligned to Motor Vehicle Salespersons are apprenticeships; given the duration of apprenticeship courses, enrolments aligned to this occupation may need to increase from 2013 levels to meet projected average annual employment needs. Further investigation is needed as to what extent the skills needs of Retail Managers, a shortage occupation, are being met by other means (e.g. higher education or fee for service delivery). Alignment to specialised and/or in shortage occupations and skill needs Vocational training related to occupations identified as specialised or experiencing skill shortages and that enhances the productive capacity of the Victorian economy is a high priority for government investment. This section highlights training alignment to areas of strategic skill need for the Retail Trade industry, including an analysis of enrolments in areas of identified skill shortages or aligned to specialised occupations204. 204 Changes in the way the Retail Trade industry is operating is changing the demand for skill sets in the industry. This is to be reflected in training packages and delivery methods to keep pace with the dynamic nature of the industry. This includes enhanced skills development in areas such as digital literacy; e-commerce skills; sustainable business practices; data and stock management; domestic and international supply chain management as well as merchandise buying and planning. Merchandise buying and planning and international supply chain management are new and refined highly specialised roles that are now being created to meet the demands of a technology driven Retail industry. The industry also remains an important part of the tourism offer for Australia and Victoria, and traditional quality customer service skills remain paramount. Alongside this however, customers are also increasingly demanding ‘whole solution’ services, requiring increased product knowledge and complimentary product awareness. Retail Trade continues to rely on a younger than average workforce, many of whom work part-time whilst studying. As the population ages, and the proportion of working age people declines in the future, demand for labour will intensify. The Retail industry will need to consider how it can attract and retain employees through greater career development planning. This will be particularly important in plugging the shortage of Retail Managers the sector is currently experiencing, which has a knock-on effect on industry productivity and performance. DEECD’s 2013 listing of Victorian skills shortages is at the 6-digit ABS ANZSCO occupation level. Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 165 Identified skills shortages in Retail Trade for 2013 include: Retail Manager (General) Motor Mechanic Baker Pastrycook Skill shortages occupations also relevant to Retail Trade: Supply and Distribution Manager; Warehouse Administrator; Truck Driver In 2013, there was a total of 2,400 enrolments related to specialised occupations or those experiencing skills shortages within the Retail Trade industry, 16 per cent of total training in the industry. This is slightly below the proportion of enrolments aligned to specialised or in shortage occupations across all industries training (41 per cent). Table 18.5: Enrolments related to specialised and/or in shortage occupations, government subsidised, 2008–2013 Specialised / in shortage enrolments Year-on-year % change Year-on-year % change (all industries) 2008 - 2009 1,300 12% 2010 1,300 1% 13% 2011 1,300 2% 18% 2012 1,800 36% 19% 2013 2,400 32% 14% Alignment to skills needs in regions This section considers training alignment with skills needs in regions by comparing the proportion of industry training within each region with the proportion of Retail Trade employment in the region. While Retail Trade business establishments are distributed throughout most suburbs of metropolitan Melbourne, the major concentrations occur in suburbs with large shopping centres (Chadstone, Doncaster, Maribyrnong and the Melbourne CBD). In regional Victoria, most Retail business establishments are located in the peri-urban region adjoining Melbourne to the north and south-east of the city, the major regional centres such as Bendigo, Ballarat, Warrnambool, Shepparton and Geelong, the coastal towns in the Surf Coast and Bass Coast areas (Torquay and Cowes) and also tourist areas such as the high country (Mansfield) and along the Murray River (Echuca).205 The highest concentration of employment within the Retail Trade industry in Victoria was in the Eastern Metropolitan (19 per cent), Southern Metropolitan (18 per cent), and Inner Metropolitan (15 per cent) regions.206 205 DSDBI (2012) Business location in Victoria: A decade of change 206 Regional Distribution are estimates only based ABS (2011) Census of Population & Housing 166 Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 Figure 18.3: Regional share of employment and enrolments Employment (% of total) Enrolments (% of total) 30% 19% 18% 15% 12% 12% 11% 5% 2% 4% 4% 2% 3% 2% 5% 1% Great Gippsland Central Wimmera Hume Loddon South Highlands Southern Mallee Coast Mallee North Source: ABS (2011) Census of Population and Housing, SVTS 7% 3% Geelong & Surrounds 8% 6% 3% 1% 1% 11% 8% 8% Loddon Mallee South Eastern Metro Northern Southern Western Metro Metro Metro Inner Metro Retail Trade employment is concentrated in metropolitan areas, with Melbourne accounting for 74 per cent of industry employment. In 2013, metropolitan Melbourne regions accounted for 65 per cent of industry training delivery, suggesting Melbourne may be slightly under-represented when comparing the proportion of training delivery with industry employment. Inner Metropolitan accounts for a much higher proportion of training delivery than its share of industry employment, highlighting the region’s role in serving the wider Melbourne area. In regional Victoria, training delivery and employment appear to be more closely aligned. Potential exceptions include Geelong and Surrounds and Loddon Mallee North, which both account for a higher proportion of training delivery than their share of industry employment Table 18.6: Enrolments by region, ranked by 2013 enrolments, government subsidised, 2008–2013 Region Inner Metropolitan 2008 5,200 2009 4,400 2010 8,400 2011 11,400 2012 14,800 2013 4,600 Geelong and Surrounds 1,100 1,200 1,600 3,000 3,100 1,900 Eastern Metropolitan 4,800 4,100 3,000 4,100 3,800 1,800 Southern Metropolitan 2,600 2,700 2,900 3,700 3,600 1,200 Northern Metropolitan 1,000 1,200 1,600 2,400 2,000 1,200 Loddon Mallee North 500 500 1,200 2,400 2,400 1,100 Western Metropolitan 1,000 400 850 1,200 1,400 1,000 Hume 650 700 750 1,000 1,500 900 Great South Coast 650 650 700 850 700 550 Gippsland 700 600 450 650 850 300 Central Highlands 400 400 550 700 550 300 30 30 30 100 150 100 Wimmera Southern Mallee Loddon Mallee South 300 600 550 400 300 100 Note that regional totals will be greater than total industry enrolments due to some enrolments falling within more than one region of training delivery. Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 167 Figure 18.4: Regional share of enrolments, 2008 and 2013 Alignment to employers and students: Employer satisfaction and student outcomes Training alignment in this section focuses on the degree of satisfaction with training provision and employment outcomes by both employers and students. Drawing on results from the NCVER Student Outcomes Survey 2012 and Survey of Employers' Use and Views of the VET System 2013207 insights are gained on the performance of the VET system in meeting the needs of the Retail Trade industry. Retail Trade industry employers were satisfied overall with the VET system, with 74 per cent of employers stating that they were satisfied. This is slightly higher than the all industries average (73 per cent). Students who reported a job-related benefit following completion of their training qualification were able to get a job, change jobs, get promoted, expand or set-up their business. Within the Retail Trade industry 75 per cent of students reported job-related benefits from their training. This is higher than the all-industry average (72 per cent). Figure 18.5: Student and employer outcomes of vocational training Retail Trade Satisfied Employers satisfied with VET system Students reporting jobrelated benefit from VET All- industry comparison 74% Benefit 75% Satisfied Not-Satisfied 26% Employers satisfied with VET system 25% Students reporting jobrelated benefit from VET No Benefit Not-Satisfied 73% Benefit 72% 27% No Benefit 28% Source: NCVER (2013) Survey of Employers' Use and Views of the VET System; NCVER (2012) Student Outcomes Survey Certain population groups face barriers to participation in education, training and the workforce. This section considers the proportion of industry training undertaken by different learner groups, and to what extent they are represented in Retail Trade training when compared with all-industry averages. Female students were well represented in Retail Trade training, comprising 58 per cent of enrolments for the industry, significantly more than the average across all industries (44 per cent). However, unemployed students had relatively weak representation, accounting for 9 per cent of enrolments for this industry, significantly less than the all industries average (25 per cent). Students aged 25 years and older were also relatively poorly represented, accounting for 30 per cent of enrolments for this industry, significantly less than the all industries proportion (50 per cent). 207 Note: Employer satisfaction and student outcomes data for this industry is indicative only. Due to small sample sizes at the State level, data for individual industries is presented at national level. Employer satisfaction and student outcomes data for “All industries” is at Victorian level. 168 Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 Figure 18.6: Proportion of enrolments by student group, government subsidised, 2013 Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 169 Transport, Postal and Warehousing Transport, Postal and Warehousing Training Snapshot The total number of government subsidised enrolments related to the Transport, Postal and Warehousing (Transport) industry was 46,100 in 2013, an increase of 21 per cent on 2012. In addition, there were 5,700 TAFE fee for service enrolments, represented 89 per cent of recorded training delivery. There were 14,100 reported course completions related to the Transport industry in 2013, a 5 per cent decline from 2012. involves the provision of transport for passengers and freight by road, rail, water or air. Other activities such as warehousing and storage services, postal services, pipeline transport and scenic and sightseeing transport are also included. Table 19.1: Vocational training enrolments and completions, year on year changes, 2008–2013 Transport, Postal and Warehousing 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Government subsidised enrolments 11,300 15,000 17,100 28,000 38,000 46,100 - 33% 14% 64% 36% 21% Year-on-year % change Year-on-year % change (all industries) TAFE fee for service enrolments Year-on-year % change Year-on-year % change (all industries) Completions Year-on-year % change - 3% 18% 31% 14% -11% 5,100 4,000 3,200 2,400 3,600 5,700 - -23% 15% -19% 3% -24% 0% 46% 18% 59% -9% 3,000 4,700 3,900 10,000 14,800 14,100 - 55% -18% 159% 48% -5% Year-on-year % change (all industries) 5% 19% 33% 29% -15% Note: all enrolment data is government subsidised, unless otherwise stated. Completions data includes all reported government subsidised and fee for service activity by all providers (TAFE and non-TAFE). In 2013, private training providers accounted for a majority of training delivery in this industry, 78 per cent. This compared with an average of 59 per cent private provision across all industries. TAFE provision accounted for 21 per cent of training delivery, while Learn Local provision in this industry was low (less than 1 per cent of 2013 training delivery). There are very few apprenticeships aligned to the Transport industry. Apprentice enrolments comprised less than 1 per cent of industry training in 2013. The proportion of traineeship enrolments, 13 per cent of Transport enrolments, was in line with the allindustry average. Training Dashboard Figure 19.1: Share of industry enrolments compared against all industries, 2013 Table 19.2: Top occupations ranked by 2013 enrolments, 170 Table 19.3: Top courses ranked by 2013 enrolments, Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 government subsidised, 2012–2013 Occupation government subsidised, 2012–2013 2012 Storepersons Truck Drivers Purchasing and Supply Logistics Clerks Transport and Despatch Clerks Railway Track Employees 18,300 10,600 3,300 3,000 50 2013 Course 19,000 14,600 4,700 4,600 1,400 Certificate III in Warehousing Operations Certificate III in Driving Operations Certificate IV in Warehousing Operations Certificate III in Logistics Certificate II in Warehousing Operations 2012 6,800 9,000 1,800 2,400 4,600 2013 14,400 11,600 4,400 4,100 3,900 Industry Overview The Transport, Postal and Warehousing industry contributed an estimated $15.5 billion to the Victorian economy in 2012-13, around 5 per cent of Victoria's total gross value added. These figures do not incorporate supply chain activity embedded in other industries, or related wholesaling activities in the wider economy. The role of Transport and Logistics as an enabler of other industries means its contribution to the Victorian economy is therefore greater than these figures suggest. Over the five years to June 2013, Transport industry gross value added grew by an average of 4 per cent per annum.208 There were an estimated 34,100 businesses operating in the industry in Victoria, 6 per cent of all businesses across the state.209 Approximately 137,400 people were employed in the industry, equating to 5 per cent of all employment in Victoria. The industry has seen employment growth of approximately 11 per cent over the last five years, equating to around 13,300 employees. The outlook over the next five years is for employment to continue to grow, increasing by an estimated 9 per cent (or 12,200 jobs).210 The Road Transport sub-sector accounted for the largest proportion of industry employment, 46 per cent of the total. This is followed by the Postal and Courier Services sub-sector, with 17 per cent of employment in the industry. Figure 19.2: Share of employment by industry sub-sector, 2012–13 -1% 2% Road Transport 5% Postal and Courier Services 6% 11% 46% Warehousing and Storage Services Transport Support Air and Space Transport 14% Rail Transport 17% Water Transport Source: Centre of Policy Studies, Monash University (2013) Labour Force Projections Key drivers of changing skills and training needs 208 Like many Victorian industries, Transport and Logistics was significantly affected by the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). As the Australian economy slowed, falling demand from consumers caused businesses to run down their inventories – meaning reduced demand for imports and therefore transport and logistics services. Exports were also negatively affected by the strong Australian dollar, with a similar impact on industry demand. Businesses in the industry responded to pressures with strong competition, reducing costs and profit margins, and offering increasingly customised supply chain solutions to their customers. The combination of low profit margins and lower freight volumes took their toll on small operators within in Australian Bureau of Statistics (2013) Australian National Accounts: State Accounts, CT NO: 5220.0 Australian Bureau of Statistics (2012) Counts of Australian Businesses, including Entries and Exits, Jun 2008 to Jun 2012, CT NO: 8165.0 210 Centre of Policy Studies, Monash University (2013) Labour Force Projections Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 171 209 the industry. Growth has since returned and is anticipated to continue in both the passenger and freight segments of the industry. The rise of online business models is increasing demand for logistics and supply chain services, with many online retailers outsourcing their supply chain to third party logistics providers. Customer expectations are on the increase and the trend toward customised solutions in logistics is expected to continue, with Transport and Logistics operations becoming increasingly complex and global in focus. Technology and automation are being incorporated into logistics and supply chain organisations to manage these new complexities as well as to improve efficiency and profitability, and the industry skills profile is changing accordingly. The traditional image of transport roles as requiring physical strength and few qualifications is a decreasing reality. As an example, traditional stevedoring functions are changing as a result of increased automation in the ports sector, with a tendency towards increased skill specialisation among employees. The industry’s increasingly complex operations are seeing a corresponding increase in demand for higher-order skills. The supply of larger numbers of more highly-skilled employees into this growing industry will represent a challenge, particularly in a workforce where skills shortages are already a feature. These drivers have prompted a number of changes to training delivery within the industry and the Training Alignment section of this industry profile explores how the training market is tracking against skills needs. Training Alignment Summary 2013 Training Alignment an estimated Industry needs Specialised and/or skill shortage occupations Skills needs in regions + 8,500 employees per year required over the five years to 2017-18 19% 36% of enrolments in courses aligned to specialised occupations of enrolments in courses aligned to occupations experiencing skills shortage The top three employing regions accounted for These three regions accounted for 56% of industry employment Employer and student needs 46,100 vocational training enrolments in 2013 42% of industry enrolments in 2013 82% 75% of industry employers were satisfied with the VET system of students reported job-related benefits from VET Alignment to industry needs This section explores the alignment between vocational training and industry needs by comparing projected annual employment needs in Transport with 2013 enrolment levels for qualifications aligned with the industry. Table 19.4 highlights the top ten employing occupations211 in the Transport industry. The projections presented in the table estimate average annual employment need for this industry. The average annual employment need by occupation include employment growth or decline and replacement demand 212. Over the next five years within the Transport industry, average annual employment needs are expected to be approximately 8,500 per year. This compares with government subsidised vocational training enrolments of 46,100 in 2013. The top three occupations by employment size were Truck Drivers, Couriers and Postal Deliverers and Automobile Drivers. 211 Occupations are listed at the ABS 4-digit ANZSCO Unit Group level 212 Forecast employment growth or decline is the expected change in the number of jobs within an occupation year to year. The period presented in the table from 2012-13 to 2017-18. Replacement demand is the number of existing workers that are forecast to leave the occupation through retirement, moving into a different industry or occupation or moving interstate etc. that require replacing to meet existing employment needs. 172 Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 Projected average annual employment needs for these occupations within the Transport industry over the next five years are: 1,080 per annum for Truck Drivers; 350 per annum for Couriers & Postal Deliverers; and 630 per annum for Automobile Drivers. Table 19.4: Top ten occupations by employment, 2012–2013, and associated enrolments, 2013 Occupation Truck Drivers 2012-13 Employment Employment growth to 2017-18 5-yr average annual employment need VET enrolments 2013 22,990 2,520 1,080 14,600 Couriers and Postal Deliverers 8,320 760 350 - Automobile Drivers 7,540 840 630 - Storepersons 6,860 380 290 19,000 Bus and Coach Drivers 6,180 690 490 - Forklift Drivers 6,110 660 380 - Transport and Despatch Clerks 4,430 280 320 4,600 Transport Services Managers 4,020 650 270 - Supply and Distribution Managers 3,900 550 210 450 Sales Assistants (General) 2,970 160 190 Source: Centre of Policy Studies, Monash University (2013) Labour Force Projections, SVTS Note: Occupations aligned to VET qualifications are highlighted in blue. *VET qualifications not directly aligned to the Transport industry and therefore outside the scope of this chapter. * When comparing projected annual employment needs with 2013 enrolment levels, some broad messages can be established regarding the alignment between government subsidised enrolments in Transport, Postal and Warehousing-related training and industry requirements. 2013 training delivery aligned to the occupations Truck Driver, Storeperson, Transport and Despatch Clerk and Supply and Distribution Manager appears to be well-placed to meet expected average annual employment needs. While not directly aligned to a specific vocational training qualification, the skill needs of occupations such as Forklift Driver are also supported by training provision (for example, the Certificate III in Warehousing Operations, aligned to the occupation Storeperson). Alignment to specialised and/or in shortage occupations and skill needs Vocational training related to occupations identified as specialised or experiencing skill shortages that enhance the productive capacity of the Victorian economy are a high priority for government investment. This section highlights training alignment to areas of strategic skill need for the Transport industry, including an analysis of enrolments in areas of identified skill shortages or aligned to specialised occupations 213. 213 The Transport industry is experiencing ongoing skill shortages in a range of occupations including transport and logistics managers, truck and train drivers and warehouse managers / administrators. One driver of shortages in the industry is the increasing use of technology, meaning job roles are becoming more highly skilled. Competition for skills from other industries is also considered to be a contributing factor, meaning attracting new entrants and retaining existing employees is a priority for transport and logistics businesses. In addition, stakeholders in all sectors of the industry have highlighted a shortage of workplace trainers and assessors, in particular experienced trainers who also possess the required industry knowledge and skills. A contributing factor to this shortage is the relative income of workplace trainers when compared with operational roles, meaning there is little incentive for employees to transition into training. Transport and logistics is a global industry, with skills needs influenced by increasingly complex operations and supporting technologies. The skill gap between operator and manager is significant, and businesses report difficulties in sourcing managerial level employees with the skills, experience and capability required. Businesses continue to report skills gaps in the language, literacy and numeracy skills of their current employees as well as an emerging need to focus on softer skills development including communication, presentation skills, rapport building and facilitation. DEECD’s 2013 listing of Victorian skills shortages is at the 6-digit ABS ANZSCO occupation level. Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 173 Identified skills shortages in Transport, Postal and Warehousing for 2013 include: Supply and Distribution Manager / Transport Company Manager Aeroplane Pilot Rail Engineer Signal Maintenance Technician Warehouse Administrator Truck Driver Train Driver Railway Track Worker Skills shortage occupations also relevant to Transport, Postal and Warehousing: Vocational Education Teacher; Electrical Linesworker In 2013, there were a total of 16,600 enrolments in courses related to specialised or in shortage occupations in the Transport industry. This represents 36 per cent of industry training in 2013. Enrolments aligned to specialised occupations or those in skill shortage increased by 49 per cent between 2012 and 2013. This compares with overall Transport, Postal and Warehousing enrolment growth of 21 per cent. Table 19.5: Enrolments related to specialised and/or in shortage occupations, government subsidised, 2008-2013 Specialised / in shortage enrolments Year-on-year % change Year-on-year % change (all industries) 2008 2,900 - 2009 4,800 65% 12% 2010 5,300 10% 13% 2011 8,300 56% 18% 2012 11,100 34% 19% 2013 16,600 49% 14% Alignment to skills needs in regions This section considers training alignment with skills needs in regions by comparing the proportion of industry training within each region with the proportion of Transport, Postal and Warehousing employment in the region. The Transport industry is generally located close to Melbourne’s port, major arterial road network, manufacturing hubs and supply chain networks. It is a land intensive industry and is increasingly located further away from central Melbourne, in places where industrial land is cheaper. The industry is concentrated in regional centres and the peri-urban areas surrounding metropolitan Melbourne. In particular, business establishments were highly concentrated in the major regional centres of Bairnsdale, City of Latrobe, Geelong, Ballarat, Bendigo, Mildura, Shepparton and Wodonga, as well as the peri-urban areas of Bacchus Marsh and Mitchell Shire.214 Eighty-one per cent of employment in the Transport industry was located within metropolitan Melbourne, with 19 per cent located in regional Victoria. The highest concentration of employment within the Transport industry is within the Northern Metropolitan (20 per cent), Western Metropolitan (19 per cent), and Inner Metropolitan (18 per cent) regions.215 214 DSDBI (2012) Business location in Victoria: A decade of change 215 Regional Distribution are estimates only based on ABS (2011) Census of Population & Housing 174 Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 Figure 19.3: Regional share of employment and enrolments Employment (% of total) Enrolments (% of total) 20% 18% 19%18% 14% 14% 12% 11% 8% 8% 4% 3% 3% 3% 2% Geelong & Surrounds 18% Great South Coast 5% 4% 4% 2% 1% 1% Gippsland Central Wimmera Highlands Southern Mallee Hume 4% 2% 2% Loddon Mallee North Loddon Mallee South 1% Eastern Metro Northern Southern Western Metro Metro Metro Inner Metro Source: ABS (2011) Census of Population and Housing, SVTS Metropolitan Melbourne accounted for 67 per cent of government subsidised vocational training in the Transport industry in 2013. Compared to its share of industry employment (81 per cent), Melbourne therefore appears to be relatively under-represented in terms of vocational training in Transport – in particular the Northern Metropolitan region (accounting for 20 per cent of employment compared with 12 per cent of training delivery). In regional Victoria, the majority of enrolments were concentrated in the Hume and Geelong & Surrounds regions, a trend not reflected in regional employment data. Table 19.6: Enrolments by region, ranked by 2013 enrolments, government subsidised, 2008–2013 Region 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Western Metropolitan 1,500 1,300 2,000 3,500 5,500 8,000 Southern Metropolitan 850 4,200 4,700 2,500 4,300 7,800 Inner Metropolitan 750 600 750 3,000 6,700 6,400 1,000 2,400 2,300 4,400 5,400 5,200 500 700 1,300 3,700 4,200 3,600 Hume 1,300 1,600 1,700 2,100 2,400 3,600 Eastern Metropolitan 1,400 1,400 1,200 1,400 1,500 2,300 Central Highlands 200 250 600 1,200 1,400 2,000 Loddon Mallee North 900 950 750 1,200 1,300 1,600 Great South Coast 150 500 500 1,300 950 1,600 Gippsland 400 450 550 450 800 1,500 Loddon Mallee South 150 250 250 300 500 450 Northern Metropolitan Geelong and Surrounds Wimmera Southern Mallee 50 50 350 300 Note that regional totals will be greater than total industry enrolments due to some enrolments falling within more than one region of training delivery. Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 175 Figure 19.4: Regional share of enrolments, 2008 and 2013 Alignment to employers and students: Employer satisfaction and student outcomes This section focuses on the degree of satisfaction with training provision and employment outcomes by both employers and students. Drawing on results from the NCVER Student Outcomes Survey 2012 and Survey of Employers' Use and Views of the VET System 2013216 insights are gained on the performance of the VET system in meeting the needs of the Transport industry. The growing development of technology in the industry presents a challenge for training providers in keeping pace with this change. With increased complexity, training organisations also need the capability to deliver current industry requirements across the breadth of operations and tailor training delivery both to suit emerging industry needs and to meet the demands of individual businesses. Employers from the Transport industry were satisfied overall with the VET system, with 82 per cent of employers stating that they were satisfied. This was significantly higher than the all-industry average (73 per cent). Students who report a job-related benefit following completion of their training qualification were able to get a job, change jobs, get promoted, expand or set-up their own business. Within the Transport industry 75 per cent of students reported job-related benefits from their training, higher than the allindustry average (72 per cent). Figure 19.5: Student and employer outcomes of vocational training Transport, Postal and Warehousing Satisfied Employers satisfied with VET system Students reporting jobrelated benefit from VET All- industry comparison Satisfied Not-Satisfied 82% Benefit 75% 18% No Benefit 25% Employers satisfied with VET system Students reporting jobrelated benefit from VET Not-Satisfied 73% Benefit 72% 27% No Benefit 28% Source: NCVER Survey of Employers' Use and Views of the VET System 2013 and NCVER Student Outcomes Survey 2012 Certain population groups face barriers to participation in education, training and the workforce. This section considers the proportion of industry training undertaken by different learner groups, and to what extent they are represented in Transport, Postal and Warehousing training when compared with all-industry averages. Female students comprised just 12 per cent of Transport industry enrolments in 2013, significantly less than the average across all industries (44 per cent). This is reflective of, although more pronounced than, the industry’s workforce demographic profile where women make up 25 per cent of employees. 216 Note: Employer satisfaction and student outcomes data for this industry is indicative only. Due to small sample sizes at the State level, data for individual industries is presented at national level. Employer satisfaction and student outcomes data for “All industries” is at Victorian level. 176 Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 Unemployed students make up 39 per cent of enrolments for this industry, significantly more than the all-industry average (25 per cent). Students aged 25 years and older make up 68 per cent of enrolments for this industry, significantly higher than the average proportion across all industries (56 per cent). This is again indicative of Transport’s workforce profile, which is older than the average across Victoria. Figure 19.6: Proportion of enrolments by student group, government subsidised, 2013 Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 177 Wholesale Trade Wholesale Trade involves the purchase and onselling, the commissionbased buying, and the commission-based selling of goods, without significant transformation, to businesses Training Snapshot The total number of government subsidised enrolments aligned to the Wholesale Trade industry was 1,000 in 2013, an increase of 14 per cent on 2012. TAFE fee for service delivery in this industry was low in 2013, representing just 1 per cent of recorded training delivery. In 2013, the total number of recorded course completions related to the Wholesale Trade industry was 700, a 97 per cent increase in reported completions since 2012. Table 20.1: Vocational training enrolments and completions, year on year changes, 2008–2013 Wholesale Trade 2008 Government subsidised enrolments 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1,000 550 350 550 850 900 Year-on-year % change - -37% 57% 57% 6% 14% Year-on-year % change (all industries) - 3% 18% 31% 14% -11% TAFE fee for service enrolments Year-on-year % change Year-on-year % change (all industries) Completions Year-on-year % change 10 50 80 10 20 10 - 607% 15% 77% 3% -82% 0% 12% 18% -69% -9% 150 200 250 300 350 700 - 35% 32% 28% 12% 97% Year-on-year % change (all industries) 5% 19% 33% 29% -15% Note: all enrolment data is government subsidised, unless otherwise stated. Completions data includes all reported government subsidised and fee for service activity by all providers (TAFE and non-TAFE). Private training providers account for 87 per cent of all enrolments, higher than the average of 59 per cent across all industries. TAFE Institutes accounted for 12 per cent of industry training, with Learn Local provision of less than 1 per cent in this industry. Apprentice enrolments accounted for 4 per cent of total enrolments, less than the all-industry average of 10 per cent. The proportion of traineeship enrolments was higher than the average across all industries in 2013 (27 per cent compared with an average of 13 per cent). Enrolments at Certificate III level and above represented a relatively low proportion of industry training, 46 per cent compared with an all-industry average of 90 per cent in 2013. Figure 20.1: Share of industry enrolments compared against all industries, 2013 Wholesale Trade industry Learn Local TAFE Training Dashboard Provider type 1% 12% Apprentice 4% Apprentice 34% Band B Band C Band D 58% Band E 3% 90% 19% 0% 178 Certificate III + 10% Band A Subsidy band Other 87% Certificate I-II Qualification level 46% Other 90% 13% Certificate III + 54% Band A 10% Trainee Trainee Private 59% Apprentice 73% Certificate I-II TAFE 37% Other 27% Qualification level 4% Other 96% Trainee Subsidy band 4% Provider type 87% Apprentice Trainee All industries Learn Local Private Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 Band B 34% Band C Band D 30% Band E 8% 9% Table 20.2: Top five occupations ranked by 2013 enrolments, Table 20.3: Top five courses ranked by 2013 enrolments, government subsidised, 2012–2013 government subsidised, 2012–2013 Occupation Purchasing / Supply Logistics Clerks Fashion, Industrial, Jewellery Design Nurserypersons Sales Representatives Retail Supervisors 2012 700 70 90 20 - 2013 900 70 50 20 10 Course Certificate II in Wholesale Certificate III in Wholesale Certificate III in Horticulture (WholesaleIVNursery) Certificate in Fashion, Textiles Merchandising Diploma of Fashion and Textiles Merchandising 2012 2013 90 650 90 40 20 Industry Overview The Wholesale Trade industry contributed an estimated $15.3 billion to the Victorian economy in 201213, around 5 per cent of Victoria's total gross value added.217 There are were an estimated 22,300 businesses operating in Victoria's Wholesale Trade industry, 4 per cent of all businesses across the state.218 Approximately 130,800 people were employed in the industry in 2012-13, equating to about 5 per cent of all employment in Victoria. The industry has seen employment growth of approximately 4 per cent over the last five years, equating to around 5,400 employees. The outlook over the next five years for Wholesale Trade is for employment to continue to grow, increasing by 7 per cent (or 9,600 jobs).219 The Machinery and Equipment Wholesaling and Other Goods Wholesaling sub-sectors accounted for the largest proportion of industry employment, 26 per cent each. This is followed by the Basic Material Wholesaling sub-sector with 21 per cent of employment in the industry. Figure 20.2: Share of employment by industry sub-sector, 2012–13 Source: Centre of Policy Studies, Monash University (2013) Labour Force Projections 217 Activity within the Wholesale Trade industry is driven by the supply of goods from primarily the agricultural, mining and manufacturing industries as well as the demand for goods by the service industries. The economic, political and environmental conditions across these supply chains directly influence wholesalers, and the sector was particularly hard hit by the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). In recent years, the industry has been increasingly converging with the Retail Trade industry and has been subject to a number of challenges. There is an increasing trend of vertical integration of businesses leading to wholesale bypassing. For example, some large retailers such as Bunnings and Mitre 10 have developed direct wholesaling links to manufacturers and importers, thereby eroding the market power of traditional wholesalers. Australian Bureau of Statistics (2013) Australian National Accounts: State Accounts, CT NO: 5220.0 Australian Bureau of Statistics (2012) Counts of Australian Businesses, including Entries and Exits, Jun 2008 to Jun 2012, CT NO: 8165.0 219 Centre of Policy Studies, Monash University (2013) Labour Force Projections Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 179 218 550 350 50 30 20 Furthermore, changing patterns of consumer behaviour are impacting profit margins in the sector, with increased on-line purchasing, often directly from the manufacturer and frequently from overseas, leading to subdued spending levels and heightened competition for low-cost products and services. In order to retain competitiveness, more and more wholesalers are introducing e-commerce and ICT systems, and thus creating demand for ICT skills in the industry. Improvements in technology may require changes in organisation structure and lead to greater specialisation of tasks. Technological improvements are also likely to reduce the need for administrative staff, particularly as the capabilities of software used in logistics networks improve. The industry’s workforce age profile is skewed towards older employees, indicating a need to attract young people and new entrants into the sector, with associated training requirements. Over time the skill composition of the industry has been shifting towards higher skilled employees, and this trend is anticipated to continue into the future. Food safety standards in wholesalers of food and beverage products and occupational health and safety more generally are now the norm, and compliance is required in order to stay in business, prompting the need for these specific skillsets. The Training Alignment section of this industry profile explores how the training market is tracking against skills needs. Training Alignment Summary 2013 Training Alignment an estimated + 7,200 Industry needs Specialised and/or skill shortage occupations employees per year required over the five years to 2017-18 1,000 vocational training enrolments in 2013 There were specialised occupations aligned to this industry There were no skills shortage occupations aligned to this industry The top three employing regions accounted for These three regions accounted for Skills needs in regions 63% of industry employment Employer and student needs 80% of industry enrolments in 2013 77% 90% of industry employers were satisfied with the VET system of students reported job-related benefits from VET Alignment to industry needs This section explores the alignment between vocational training and industry needs by comparing projected annual employment needs in Wholesale Trade with 2013 enrolment levels for qualifications aligned with the industry. Table 20.4 highlights the top ten employing occupations220 in the Wholesale Trade industry. The projections presented in the table estimate average annual employment needs by occupation for this industry. The average annual employment need include employment growth or decline and replacement demand221. Over the next five years within the Wholesale Trade industry, average annual employment needs are expected to be approximately 7,200 per year. This compares with government subsidised vocational training enrolments of 1,000 in 2013. Within Wholesale Trade, the top three occupations by employment were Storepersons, Sales Representatives and Advertising & Sales Managers. 220 Occupations are listed at the ABS 4-digit ANZSCO Unit Group level 221 Forecast employment growth or decline is the expected change in the number of jobs within an occupation year to year. The period presented in the table from 2012-13 to 2017-18. Replacement demand is the number of existing workers that are forecast to leave the occupation through retirement, moving into a different industry or occupation or moving interstate etc. that require replacing to meet existing employment needs. 180 Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 Projected average annual employment needs for these occupations within Wholesale Trade over the next five years are: 430 per annum for Storepersons; 410 per annum for Sales Representatives; and 380 per annum for Advertising and Sales Managers. Table 20.4: Top ten occupations by employment, 2012–2013, and associated enrolments, 2013 2012-13 Employment Occupation Employment growth to 2017-18 5-yr average annual employment need VET enrolments 2013 Storepersons 9,960 560 430 * Sales Representatives 9,260 580 410 20 Advertising and Sales Managers Purchasing and Supply Logistics Clerks 6,860 820 380 5,710 480 260 900 Importers, Exporters and Wholesalers 5,350 400 380 * Accounting Clerks 4,710 540 200 * Sales Assistants (General) 4,380 240 280 * Technical Sales Representatives 3,760 660 270 * Forklift Drivers 3,450 370 210 Retail Managers 2,700 210 110 Source: Centre of Policy Studies, Monash University (2013) Labour Force Projections, SVTS Note: Occupations aligned to VET qualifications are highlighted in blue. *VET qualifications not directly aligned to the Wholesale Trade industry and therefore outside the scope of this report. * When comparing projected annual employment needs with 2013 enrolment levels, some broad messages can be established regarding the alignment between government subsidised enrolments in Wholesale Trade-related training and industry requirements. 2013 training delivery aligned to Purchasing and Supply Logistics Clerks appears to be well-placed to meet expected average annual employment needs. Training aligned to Sales Representatives, on the other hand, may need to increase from 2013 levels in order to meet project average annual employment needs of 420 employees. The skill needs of this occupation are likely to be met via a variety of pathways however, of which vocational training is one. Skills development relating to occupations such as Storepersons, Retail Managers and Accounting Clerks are covered in other chapters of this report. Alignment to specialised and/or in shortage occupations and skill needs This section highlights areas of strategic skill needs for the Wholesale Trade industry. Vocational training related to occupations identified as specialised or experiencing skill shortages that enhance the productive capacity of the Victorian economy are a high priority for government investment. This section highlights training alignment to areas of strategic skill needs for the Wholesale Trade industry, including an analysis of enrolments in areas of identified skill shortages or aligned to specialised occupations222. 222 No skills shortages have been identified in occupations directly aligned to the Wholesale Trade industry. Similarly, no specialised occupations are aligned to this industry. Wholesale Trade is a major employer of skills aligned to the Transport, Postal and Warehousing and Retail Trade industries, however, and is therefore affected by shortages in occupations such as Truck Drivers, Warehouse Administrators and Retail Managers. While there were no Wholesale Trade enrolments aligned to specialised or in shortage occupations in 2013, there are certain skillsets that remain critical to this industry. Despite the general trend towards wholesale bypassing, in certain sectors (such as construction-related wholesalers), extensive product and market understanding is valuable, and can save retailers time, with retailers increasingly capitalising on this knowledge. A key function of the Wholesale Trade industry is inventory management. Better inventory management frees tied up capital and increases the efficiency of distribution services. The supply chain is vital in improving global competitiveness and productivity growth through research, science and innovation, and reducing barriers to accessing international and domestic markets. Skills in understanding and accessing new markets and innovation are especially relevant to food and beverage related Wholesale Trade. DEECD’s 2013 listing of Victorian skills shortages is at the 6-digit ABS ANZSCO occupation level. Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 181 Alignment to skills needs in regions This section considers training alignment with skills needs in regions by comparing the proportion of industry training within each region with the proportion of Wholesale Trade employment in the region. The Wholesale Trade industry in metropolitan Melbourne is generally concentrated in industrial precincts close to transport, warehousing and manufacturing hubs. This reflects the importance of minimising transport costs and a desire to have easy access to major transport and freight hubs. In regional Victoria, the industry is generally concentrated in the larger population centres such as Geelong, Bendigo, Ballarat, Shepparton, Mildura and Wodonga. Other areas of concentration include Bacchus Marsh and Lara which are on the peri-urban fringe.223 Eighty-five per cent of employment in the Wholesale Trade industry is located within metropolitan Melbourne, with 15 per cent located in regional Victoria. The highest concentration of employment within the Wholesale Trade industry was within the Eastern Metropolitan (24 per cent), Southern Metropolitan (22 per cent), and Inner Metropolitan (17 per cent) regions.224 Figure 20.3: Regional employment and enrolments Employment (% of total) Enrolments (% of total) 64% 24% 22% 17% 10% 3% 1% Geelong & Surrounds 1% 0% Great South Coast 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% Gippsland Central Wimmera Highlands Southern Mallee 3% 6% Hume 1% 0% 2% 0% Loddon Mallee North Loddon Mallee South 12% 4% Eastern Metro 6% 11% 6% Northern Southern Western Metro Metro Metro Inner Metro Source: ABS (2011) Census of Population and Housing, SVTS Metropolitan Melbourne accounted for 90 per cent of Wholesale Trade training delivery in 2013. Compared to its share of industry employment (85 per cent), overall training delivery in Melbourne therefore appears to be relatively well-aligned with the regional share of Wholesale Trade employment. The Inner Metropolitan region has the largest number of enrolments with 650 in 2013 (64 per cent of the total). The region’s share of vocational training is high when compared with the share of industry employment, offsetting relatively low vocational training provision in other Melbourne regions when compared with employment – particularly the Eastern and Southern Metropolitan. 223 DSDBI (2012) Business location in Victoria: A decade of change 224 Regional Distribution data are estimates only based on ABS (2011) Census of Population & Housing 182 Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 Table 20.5: Enrolments by region, ranked by 2013 enrolments, government subsidised, 2008–2013 Region 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Inner Metropolitan 50 50 90 150 250 650 Eastern Metropolitan 90 70 70 200 250 100 Western Metropolitan - - 70 150 100 70 Southern Metropolitan 50 50 70 150 150 60 250 - - 10 30 60 Northern Metropolitan 60 100 150 150 100 40 Central Highlands 50 30 40 20 10 10 Geelong and Surrounds 20 10 - 10 10 10 Hume Gippsland 10 10 10 10 10 10 Note that regional totals will be greater than total industry enrolments due to some enrolments falling within more than one region of training delivery. Figure 20.4: Regional share of enrolments, 2008 and 2013 Alignment to employers and students: Employer satisfaction and student outcomes This section focuses on the degree of satisfaction with training provision and employment outcomes by both employers and students. Drawing on results from the NCVER Student Outcomes Survey 2012 and Survey of Employers' Use and Views of the VET System 2013225 insights can be gained on how the VET system is meeting the needs of the Wholesale Trade industry. Employers from the Wholesale Trade industry were satisfied overall with the VET system, with 77 per cent of employers stating that they were satisfied. This is higher than the all-industry average of 73 per cent. Within the Wholesale Trade industry 90 per cent of students reported job-related benefits from their training (for example getting a job, changing jobs, getting promoted, expanding or setting up their business. This is much higher than the all-industry average (72 per cent). 225 Note: Employer satisfaction and student outcomes data for this industry is indicative only. Due to small sample sizes at the State level, data for individual industries is presented at national level. Employer satisfaction and student outcomes data for “All industries” is at Victorian level. Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 183 Figure 20.5: Student and employer outcomes of vocational training Wholesale Trade Satisfied Employers satisfied with VET system Students reporting jobrelated benefit from VET All- industry comparison Satisfied Not-Satisfied 77% Benefit Employers satisfied with VET system 23% No Benefit 90% 10% Not-Satisfied 73% Benefit Students reporting jobrelated benefit from VET 27% No Benefit 72% 28% Source: NCVER Survey of Employers' Use and Views of the VET System 2013 and NCVER Student Outcomes Survey 2012 Certain population groups face barriers to participation in education, training and the workforce. This section considers the proportion of industry training undertaken by different learner groups, and to what extent they are represented in Wholesale Trade training when compared with all-industry averages. Culturally and Linguistically Diverse (CALD) students appeared relatively under-represented in Wholesale Trade training in 2013 when compared with the average across all industries, comprising 12 per cent of enrolments compared with an average of 27 per cent. Similarly, students aged 25 and above account for a low proportion of training when compared with all-industry averages, 37 per cent compared with 56 per cent. Females and unemployed students, on the other hand, were relatively well-represented in Wholesale Trade training in 2013. Female enrolments comprised 57 per cent of the total compared with an average of 44 per cent, while enrolments by unemployed students accounted for 37 per cent of Wholesale Trade training delivery (this compares with an all-industry average of 25 per cent). Figure 20.6: Proportion of enrolments by student group, government subsidised, 2013 Wholesale Trade Indigenous 0% 1% 12% CALD Disability All industries 27% 5% 6% Female Unemployed Age 25+ 184 44% 25% 57% 37% 37% Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 56% Cross-Industry Industry Overview Training aligned to the Cross-Industry skill areas are considered separately as they do not align to any one standard industry classification; instead, they support businesses across all of Victoria’s industries. Consequently, this chapter does not align training data with industry employment and economic data, as elsewhere in this report, but focuses on training delivery trends aligned to Cross-Industry226 skills development – a significant proportion of Victoria’s vocational training activity. Cross-Industry includes business and related skills which are transferable across the whole range of industries. It includes eight sub-sectors: Accounting Services; Business Administration; Business Management; Human Resources; International Business; Information Technology; Occupational Health and Safety; Project Management; Quality and Sales, Marketing and Public Relations Courses categorised under Cross-Industry equip individuals with a variety of transferable skills that may be applicable across a range of occupations and industries. Transferable skills are increasingly gaining importance in light of the recent increase in the rate of structural change across Victorian industries. Key drivers of changing skills and training needs Cross–Industry encompasses a diverse range of skills that are essential to the operations of businesses across Victoria’s industries. The industry’s skill needs are primarily driven by the requirement for ongoing improvements to business productivity and competitiveness. Rapid development in technology, including e-commerce, cloud computing and social media, is becoming the norm, raising the importance of digital literacy in Cross-Industry skills development. There is a growing demand for managerial and leadership skills across all industries. Research has found that improved business performance is strongly influenced by the leadership skills and the capabilities of managerial employees to support227. Coupled with this is growing management skills demand in the area of business compliance and governance, overseeing and implementing regulations. Sound numeracy and literacy skills are also important in skilling the workforce across all industries, particularly those in clerical and administrative roles. Furthermore, communication and relationship management skills are crucial for developing an efficient and effective workforce. Training Snapshot 226 There were 60,300 government subsidised enrolments aligned to Cross-Industry in 2013, representing 13 per cent of all industry training in Victoria. This represents a decline of 34 per cent when compared with 2012 enrolment numbers. However, when compared to 2008 levels, government subsidised enrolments have increased by 15 per cent. TAFE fee for service delivery in Cross-Industry stood at 11,800 enrolments in 2013, representing 84 per cent of reported training delivery. Cross-Industry completions were 35,100 in 2013, representing a decline of 21 per cent when compared with 2012. However, over the five years since 2008, reported completions have grown by 40 per cent. Unlike the other industry profiles, Cross-Industry is not classified under Australian Bureau of Statistics ANZSIC categories. DEECD has grouped occupations into broad skills clusters to categorise them into the eight sub-sectors outlined above. 227 Innovation and Business Services (2013) Environmental Scan Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 185 Table 21.1: Vocational training enrolments and completions, year on year changes, 2008-2013 Cross –Industry 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 52,600 51,100 57,400 81,500 91,000 60,300 Year-on-year % change - -3% 12% 42% 12% -34% Year-on-year % change (all industries) - 3% 18% 31% 14% -11% 9,800 11,000 10,300 11,400 13,900 11,800 Year-on-year % change - 13% -7% 11% 22% -15% Year-on-year % change (all industries) - 15% 3% 0% 18% -9% 25,000 22,900 29,500 32,400 44,500 35,100 Year-on-year % change - -9% 29% 10% 37% -21% Year-on-year % change (all industries) - 5% 19% 33% 29% -15% Government subsidised enrolments TAFE fee for service enrolments Completions Note: all enrolment data is government subsidised, unless otherwise stated. Completions data includes all reported government subsidised and fee for service activity by all providers (TAFE and non-TAFE). Private training providers accounted for a majority of Cross-Industry training in 2013, 70 per cent of government subsidised enrolments (compared with an all industry average of 37 per cent). Provision by TAFE Institutes represented 15 per cent of training delivery in 2013. Learn Local providers accounted for 4 per cent of Cross-Industry enrolments – in line with Learn Local’s share of total industry training. Traineeship enrolments accounted for 13 per cent of Cross-Industry training in 2013, in line with the average proportion of traineeships across all industries. Apprenticeships are not aligned with Cross-Industry training, with no apprenticeship enrolments in 2013 (consistent with other years). Ninety-six per cent of Cross-Industry training delivery is at Certificate III level or above. This is higher than the average of 90 per cent across all industries. Training Dashboard Figure 21.1: Share of industry enrolments compared against all industries, 2013 186 In 2013, the Certificate IV in Business attracted the highest proportion of enrolments within CrossIndustry training, accounting for 13 per cent of training delivery aligned to this industry. This was followed by the Diploma of Management and the Certificate IV in Frontline Management (10 per cent and 8 per cent of enrolments respectively). In 2013, the highest number of enrolments in Cross-Industry training was in courses aligned to the occupations Office Managers, General Clerks and Bookkeepers. Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 Table 21.3: Top five occupations ranked by 2013 enrolments, government subsidised, 2012–2013 Table 21.2: Top five courses ranked by 2013 enrolments, government subsidised, 2012–2013 Course 2012 2013 Occupation Certificate IV in Business 5,400 7,600 Diploma of Management 15,900 Certificate IV in Frontline Management Certificate IV in Business Administration Certificate IV in Business Sales 2012 2013 Office Managers 42,900 28,400 5,900 General Clerks 18,300 6,800 3,800 5,100 Bookkeepers 6,500 5,900 12,400 4,700 Technical Sales Representatives 1,200 3,900 1,200 3,900 ICT Support Technicians 3,900 2,800 Cross-Industry training is aimed at providing additional support to businesses and functions across all industries. This is reflected in the responses offered for reason for study, which is quite divergent from the average trend across all industries. Analysis shows that the primary reason students undertook study in courses within Cross-Industry had little relation to their current jobs and more aligned to personal interest or self-development with the aim to progress in their careers. This is quite different to the average trend across all industries, where training is undertaken as a requirement for current jobs or employment. Gaining extra skills for existing jobs was also a more popular reason for study, accounting for 20 per cent of Cross-Industry enrolments, than the all industry average. A much smaller proportion, accounting for 6 per cent of enrolments, indicated that they were studying because it was a requirement for their current jobs. This is compared with 16 per cent across all industries. Figure 21.1: Reason for study in Cross-Industry, 2013 Training in specialised and/or in shortage occupations Vocational training related to occupations identified as specialised or experiencing skill shortages that enhance the productive capacity of the Victorian economy are a high priority for government investment. There were no skill shortages identified in occupations aligned with Cross-Industry. However, specialised occupations within this grouping include Accountants, Occupational and Environmental Health Professionals and Software and Applications Programmers. There were 2,100 enrolments aligned to specialised Cross-Industry occupations in 2013. Enrolments declined by 35 per cent when compared with 2012. This is in contrast to the 14 per cent increase averaged across all industries. Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 187 Table 21.4: Enrolments related to specialised and/or in shortage occupations, government subsidised, 2008–2013 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 5,100 5,400 4,400 3,800 3,300 2,100 Year-on-year % change - 6% -19% -12% -15% -35% Year-on-year % change (all industries) - 12% 13% 18% 19% 14% Specialised / in shortage Training delivery in regions In 2013, enrolments in courses related to Cross-Industry were clustered around the metropolitan Melbourne regions. Inner Metropolitan accounted for 42 per cent of enrolments in 2013, 25,200 enrolments, followed by Eastern and Southern Metropolitan regions, 14 and 12 per cent respectively. Within regional Victoria, Geelong and Surrounds reported a high proportion of enrolments in 2013. Table 21.5: Enrolments by region, ranked by 2013 enrolments, government subsidised, 2008–2013 Region 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Inner Metropolitan 7,800 7,700 11,200 30,900 40,000 25,200 11,300 9,200 9,700 11,700 11,000 8,000 Southern Metropolitan 6,800 6,800 7,100 9,100 10,900 7,200 Western Metropolitan 5,200 4,600 6,000 6,500 7,600 6,800 Northern Metropolitan 5,300 5,500 6,400 6,500 6,000 4,000 Geelong and Surrounds 2,200 2,500 2,500 3,100 3,200 1,900 Hume 2,400 2,300 2,200 2,300 2,500 1,700 Central Highlands 1,400 1,800 1,500 1,500 1,800 1,100 Gippsland 2,300 2,400 2,700 2,300 1,900 950 Loddon Mallee South 1,700 2,200 1,900 1,700 1,700 800 Loddon Mallee North 1,400 1,300 1,300 1,200 1,300 800 Great South Coast 1,300 1,100 1,000 1,000 900 350 Eastern Metropolitan Wimmera Southern Mallee 650 450 300 250 200 Note that regional totals will be greater than total industry enrolments due to some enrolments falling within more than one region of training delivery. Figure 21.2: Regional share of enrolments, 2008 and 20 188 Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 150 Training delivery by student groups Certain population groups face barriers to participation in education, training and the workforce. This section considers the proportion of industry training undertaken by different learner groups, and to what extent they are represented in Cross-Industry training when compared with all-industry averages. In 2013, female students were strongly represented among those enrolling in Cross-Industry training, accounting for 58 per cent of enrolments compared with an all-industry average of 44 per cent of training delivery. Students aged 25 years and over were also relatively strongly represented in Cross-Industry training, accounting for 61 per cent of enrolments – higher than the all industry average of 56 per cent. Figure 21.3: Proportion of enrolments by student group, government subsidised, 2013 Benefits of vocational training Drawing on results from the NCVER Student Outcomes Survey 2012228 insights can be gained on the performance of the VET system in meeting students’ needs within the industry. Students who report a job-related benefit following completion of their qualification were able to get a job, change jobs, get promoted, expand or set-up their own business. Within Cross–Industry, 70 per cent of students reported job-related benefits from their training. This is higher than the all-industry average of 72 per cent. Figure 21.4: Student outcomes of vocational training Cross-Industry Benefit Students reporting jobrelated benefit from VET All- industry comparison No Benefit 70% Benefit 30% Students reporting jobrelated benefit from VET 72% No Benefit 28% Source: NCVER (2012) Student Outcomes Survey 228 Note: Employer satisfaction and student outcomes data for this industry is indicative only. Due to small sample sizes at the State level, data for individual industries is presented at national level. Employer satisfaction and student outcomes data for “All industries” is at Victorian level. Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 189 Appendix – Abbreviations AGA Apprenticeships Group Australia AQF Australian Qualifications Framework AVETMISS Australian Vocational Education and Training Management Information Statistical Standard CALD Culturally and Linguistically Diverse DAE Deloitte Access Economics DEECD Department of Education and Early Childhood Development DSDBI Department of State Development, Business and Innovation ESL English as a Second Language FFS Fee for Service GS Government Subsidised GVA Gross Value Added HESG Higher Education and Skills Group LOTE Languages Other Than English NCVER National Centre for Vocational Education Research NEALS National Education Access Licence for Schools NILFET Not in the Labour Force, Education or Training RDV Regional Development Victoria RTO Registered Training Organisation RVT Refocusing Vocational Training SVTS Skills Victoria Training System TAFE Technical and Further Education VET Vocational Education and Training VTG Victorian Training Guarantee WiT Workers in Transition Program 190 Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 Appendix – Glossary An accredited short course is a program of learning that comprises one or more Accredited short course components (e.g. units of competency, modules or subjects) that has been accredited by an accrediting authority An AQF qualification is the result of an accredited complete program of learning that leads Australian Qualification to formal certification that a graduate has achieved learning outcomes as described in the Framework (AQF) AQF Completions When a Learner has completed the full qualification or skill set and a Certificate or Statement of Attainment has been issued. Cross-industry Cross-Industry is an industry classification which includes business and related skills which are transferable across the whole range of industries. It includes eight sub-sectors: Accounting Services; Business Administration; Business Management; Human Resources; International Business; Information Technology; Occupational Health and Safety; Project Management; Quality and Sales, Marketing and Public Relations. Training aligned to these skill areas are considered separately as they do not align to any one standard industry classification; instead, they support businesses across Victoria’s industries. Enrolments A course enrolment indicates a funding-based enrolment by a student in at least one module within a specified course at a registered training provider GRP Gross Regional Product (GRP) is the market value of all final goods and services produced by all firms in an economy (as distinguished from goods still in the process of production that are purchased by one firm from another for further processing and resale, which are included in total turnover). In Shortage In shortage' occupations uses DEECD's Higher Education & Skills Group Skills Shortage List (2012), compiled with reference to report from Victorian industry training bodies and direct consultation with industry groups and workforce planning agencies. Labour market outcomes Labour market outcomes encompasses outcomes that lead to successful employment; employment at successively higher skill levels; the opening of pathways to further education leading to employment and improved workplace productivity through skills utilisation. Recruitment difficulty Recruitment difficulties occur when some employers have difficulty filling vacancies for an occupation. There may be an adequate supply of skilled employees but some employers are unable to attract and recruit sufficient, suitable employees for reasons which include: specific experience or specialist skill requirements of the vacancy; differences in student contact hours of work required by the employer and those sought by applicants; or particular location or transport issues. Regional Victoria Regional Victoria all areas with the boundaries of Barwon South West, Loddon Mallee, Hume, Gippsland and Grampians, as defined by Regional Development Victoria (RDV). Registered training organisation (RTO) A registered training organisation is a vocational education and training organisation registered by a state or territory registering body in accordance with the Australian Quality Training Framework (AQTF) Essential Standards for Registration within a defined scope of registration Skills gap A skills gap is the difference between the workforce required to perform a current or prospective operation and the workforce available. Skills gaps may include the number of qualified employees available to perform particular job roles, or the specific skills that employees need to perform a job role. Skills shortage Skill shortages exist when employers are unable to fill or have considerable difficulty filling vacancies for an occupation, or significant specialised skill needs within that occupation, at current levels of remuneration and conditions of employment, and in reasonably accessible locations. Skills Victoria Training System (SVTS) The main source of vocational training statistics in this publication is the training activity database referred to as SVTS. All government subsidised providers are required to submit their data using SVTS at least once a month in accordance with the Australian Vocational Education & Training Management Information Statistical Standard (AVETMISS). For TAFE Institutes, there is an additional regulatory requirement that they also submit their Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 191 fee for service data. Specialised Specialised occupations uses the Australian Workforce and Productivity Agency Specialised Occupation List, which is used to inform the skilled migration program. These occupations have a long lead-time for training, high economic value and a significant match between training and employment Student participation rate The number of working-age (15 to 64 years) vocational education and training students as a proportion of the population aged 15 to 64 years. Workplace preparation, Workplace preparation, education pathways and LOTE are initial or introductory education pathways and knowledge and skills upon which further development can be built LOTE 192 Vocational Training: Victoria's Industry Report 2013 Appendix – References Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) (2006) Australia and New Zealand Standard Industrial Classification (ANZSIC), Canberra: Commonwealth of Australia. Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) (2006) Australian and New Zealand Standard Classification of Occupations (ANZSCO), Canberra: Commonwealth of Australia. Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) (2011) Census of Population and Housing, Canberra: Commonwealth of Australia. 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