AMDG Chapter 1 Intangible Assets and The Firm I. Intangible Assets and the Firm This is a book about the value, or price, of the firm’s intangible assets. Generally, intangible assets are developed, owned, and used by firms rather than individuals. As a result, the discipline of intangible asset valuation can be viewed as an intersection of corporate finance, business valuation, and the economics of capital and capital formation. Intangible capital is, obviously, not tangible. It is therefore inherently more difficult to describe than other forms of capital that you can touch and see. This places a premium on a thorough upfront description of what, exactly, we mean when we refer to “intangible assets.” In this chapter, we attempt to describe intangible assets in three ways. First, we provide an overview of the basic economic characteristics of the firm’s intangible capital, hopefully doing so in a complete enough way that the basic economics of this asset category are made plain to the reader. Second, we offer a high level discussion of the main determinants of value for intangible assets. Finally, we offer a brief discussion of each of the main intangible asset categories. II. Key Economic Characteristics The first, and most obvious, characteristic of intangible assets was noted directly above. That is, intangible capital is, simply put, intangible. One cannot physically touch, or see, or smell, an intangible asset. While one can touch a product, or piece of equipment, that embodies the intangible capital, the intangible asset itself is, at root, just an idea or a relationship. Put differently, intangible capital is that part of the economy’s capital stock that is idea or relationship based.1 Take, for example, a patented drug. The drug itself is a pattern, or configuration, of compounds – perhaps delivered through a pill that includes the active It bears noting here that in one sense, all capital contains an element that is intangible. Obviously, virtually any form of physical capital involves the embodiment of productive ideas in matter. 1 DRAFT 2 ingredient along with other fillers. As such, the drug product is tangible – a tangible good. However, the fact that the drug embodies a patented, protectable, technology (i.e., a “composition of matter”) means that the owner of the patent has monopoly power over the sale of the drug. If the drug is valued by consumers, this monopoly power means that the patent owner can extract a large amount of the “consumer surplus” (i.e., value) that consumers place on the drug. Thus, from the point of view of the market, the drug really consists of two things: 1) the tangible matter that comprises the pill, and 2) the patent right to the specific composition of matter that changes the economic relationship between the producer of the drug and the consumer. Obviously, the latter component of the drug, the patent, is not something that one can touch. It is both an idea (the composition of matter itself), and a set of human relationships (the monopoly power conferred on the owner of the patent). This example highlights the second key characteristic of intangible assets. Because they are intangible, people cannot consume them directly. Consumption, which is the realization of value, can only take place for intangibles if the intangibles are embodied in another good that is consumed directly. This means that intangible assets are always what economists call an “input good.” The economic significance of this second characteristic has to do with what economists refer to as “derived demand.” A derived demand is a demand for a good that results because that good is an input into another good that is consumed directly. Labor, for example, is an input for which the demand curve is a derived demand. Derived demand has certain unique characteristics that are well studied. 2 These characteristics apply to intangible assets as well as other input goods, and include the following. First, all else equal, the “elasticity” (price sensitivity) of an input good is determined in part by the price sensitivity of the good for which the input is used in production. Applied to intangibles, this means that, all else equal, if intangible capital is used in products for which demand is highly price sensitive (which generally means that they are sold in relatively competitive These were first uncovered by Alfred Marshall in 1890, and were refined later by John Hicks in 1932. 2 DRAFT 3 markets), then the demand for the intangible asset will also be highly price sensitive (demand for the intangible asset will be “elastic”). For example, restaurant recipes are an intangible asset. However, the most of the restaurant industry is highly competitive, and therefore price sensitive. Given this, the value of recipes is, generally speaking, also price sensitive (and thus limited). Second, all else equal, the more substitutable is the input good for other inputs, the more price sensitive will be the demand for the input good. So, back to the case of the pharmaceutical patent, there is typically little substitutability associated with patented pharmaceutical compounds. As a result, the price sensitivity of pharmaceutical patents is low (increasing their value, all else equal). Third, all else equal, the greater are intangible asset inputs as a share of the total cost of a directly consumed product, the more price sensitive will be the demand for the intangible. Again, in the example of a pharmaceutical patent, if the R&D that led to the composition of matter patent for the active ingredient represents a large proportion of the total cost of the pharmaceutical product, then the demand for the patent will be more elastic. The third important economic characteristic of intangible assets is that they are durable, and therefore they depreciate. Intangible capital, like all other capital, produces a flow of services for its owner over a period of time. Further, that flow generally decreases in value over time, absent continued “maintenance” of the asset. We examine the subject of intangible property depreciation in some detail in Chapters 2 and 4. Fourth, like other forms of capital, intangible assets have an associated “rental rate,” or “required rate of return.” That is, there is a “cost of capital” for intangible capital investments, in the same way that there is a cost of capital for other forms of capital investments. For example, when a firm makes an investment in R&D, that investment is associated with a required rate of return. If we assume that the firm’s R&D investment is $100, that the R&D will be equally productive of revenue and profit in each of the next 10 years (meaning that it will produce an “even flow of non-decreasing and non-increasing profit over each of the next 10 years), and finally that the required rate of return to the R&D is 10 percent, then the firm’s required return on its R&D investment is $15.82 per year.3 In short, the firm This is simply the annuity flow required during each of the next ten years in order for the firm to have an expected net present value of zero on the $100 of R&D investment. $15.82 = (10%*$100 / (1-e10%*10). 3 DRAFT 4 must earn back its “principal” (R&D investment), and also realize an “interest” payment on that investment that is determined by the riskiness of cash flow stream that the investment is expected to generate. The required rate of return to intangible asset investments is discussed in Chapter 3. However, actual (as opposed to required) returns to intangible asset investments are highly variable. This is the fifth important economic characteristic of intangible assets. That is, the difference between the required return to intangible capital investments and the actual return is sometimes very large. Part of the reason for this is that intangible asset investments are inherently risky, and sometimes prove unsuccessful. However, another important reason is that intangible asset investments, when successful, can produce “monopoly power” for the firm.4 By this, we mean that intangible asset investments produce monopoly power in the classical microeconomic sense of the term. That is, they either cause a downward sloping demand curve for the firm, or they result in a protectable cost advantage for the firm.5 It is important to be precise here about the valuation implications of monopoly power. In every case, intangible asset investments are ex ante expected to generate what we define in Chapter 2 as “residual profit.” Residual profit is the current period return to previously sunk intangible asset investments. As we discuss in Chapter 3, residual profit is profit measured by subtracting the required profits to routine invested capital from the firm’s operating profit. This means that intangible assets are the assets that are the “last claimant” to profit, after other assets have been remunerated. The reason that we think of the returns to intangible assets in this way is that “last claimancy” over profits is characteristic of monopoly power. That is, monopoly power means that the firm can earn some profits over and above those that would accrue if the firm only owned assets that are readily available in the open market (i.e., routine assets that coincide with competitive markets). Without non-routine intangible assets, the firm would revert to earning “normal profits,” or a competitive rate of return. Given this (given that last claimancy is a By this we mean that the intangible asset investments, if successful, yield pricing power or a cost advantage. 5 In theory, a protectable cost advantage will, in the long run, also result in a downward sloping demand curve. The reason is that the protectable cost advantage will allow the firm to price below its competitors, increasing its market share. This market share expansion eventually means that the firm is addressing a large enough proportion of the market that it faces a downward sloping demand curve (it gains monopoly power through market share expansion). 4 DRAFT 5 feature of monopoly power), and given that intangible assets cause monopoly power, it follows that last claimancy (residual profit) is a feature of intangible assets. Importantly, the firm’s residual profit may, or may not, be greater than its required return on its prior period intangible asset investments. In other words, the intangible assets may or may not yield economic profit. If, for example, the firm’s intangible asset stock produces a downward sloping demand curve, but does so in a monopolistically competitive environment, then it is likely that ex ante the firm’s investments in its intangible assets are expected to produce residual profit in later periods that are equal in present value terms to the upfront intangible asset investment cost. In other words, the intangible asset(s) generates residual profit but not economic profit. On the other hand, if the intangible assets produce a true barrier to entry, and thereby result in a monopoly or oligopoly market structure for the firm, then it may very well be the case that the residual profit flow resulting from prior period intangible asset investments is greater than the required return to those investments. Put differently, in this case the firm earns economic profit. Sixth, intangible assets are often specific to a firm or a customer, implying that intangible capital may be non-redeployable to other uses.6 The specificity of intangible assets means that markets for intangible assets tend to be thin. This is evidenced by the fact that attempts to create markets for intangible assets such as patent exchanges have generally faced severe challenges, and that the most commonly observed “governance mechanism” for intangible asset transactions is tailored long term contracting, as opposed to spot market exchange. The valuation implication of all of this is that market-based methods for valuing intangible assets, while certainly possible, can at times be difficult to implement. The customization, or specificity, of intangible capital means that finding good market comparables for a given intangible asset can sometimes be a challenge. Another important characteristic of intangible assets, which should be clear from the foregoing discussion, is that investments in intangible assets are risky. Particularly for certain types of intangible capital, failure risk is very high. Pharmaceutical R&D is notoriously risky, as is investment related to brand extensions.7 The valuation implication of this is that future cash flows related to For a good treatment of asset specificity, see Hart, Firms, Contracts, and Financial Structure, (Oxford University Press: 1995). 7 A brand extension is the extension of a core brand into another product area. 6 DRAFT 6 “in process” investments, such as “in process R&D,” must be probabilistically adjusted to account for the risk of failure. The eighth characteristic that merits mention is that intangible assets are not always “property,” per se. Some intangible assets, such as certain types of customer relationships, do not have status as property under the law. Further, those intangibles that do have such status generally do not keep it for long. For example, patent rights expire, and trade secrets leak out into the public domain. In short, because patents and trade secrets are ultimately just ideas, these ideas will eventually leak into the public domain and lose their status as legally protectable property. This does not mean that non-property intangible capital is valueless. In fact, certain non-property intangible assets such as production know-how or customer relationships have very high “value in use” for the firm. The fact that these may not be legally protected property does not necessarily limit their value to the firm, so long as the firm can manage to protect the uniqueness of these assets in some other way. Thus, the lack of legal protection may limit the market value of a piece of intangible capital, but not its value in use to the firm that has invested in the capital.8 Finally, intangible assets tend to fall into two broad categories: technology intangibles and customer-based intangibles. Examples of the former include (but are not limited to) patent rights, trade secrets, know-how, recipes and formulations, engineering, and customer specific tooling. Examples of the latter include (but are not limited to) trademarks, customer relationships, customer lists, and rights to exclude potential competitors from exploiting market territories or market segments. Importantly, customer-based and technology intangibles are usually what economists call “complements,” rather than “substitutes.” That is, the productivity of one is enhanced by increasing the productivity of the other. For example, compare two firms, A and B. Suppose that both firms have identical technology, but that firm A has very deep and broad customer relationships whereas firm B does not. Firm A will be better positioned to exploit the This is not to say that the presence of a property right does not add value. As a general matter, it does – at a minimum by enhancing the “tradability” of the intangible. Our point is simply that the absence of a property right does not necessarily detract from the value of the firm’s intangible capital. 8 DRAFT 7 technology than firm B. This implies that the technology asset is more valuable in the hands of A than B. III. Value Determinants – A High Level Discussion The previous discussion leads naturally into a discussion of the primary determinants of the value of intangible assets. By “value,” we mean the present value of the cash flows generated by a piece of intangible capital. Several of the economic characteristics mentioned above have direct implications for the value of an intangible asset. Beginning with the “derived demand” characteristics of intangible assets, the substitutability of other forms of intangible capital for a given intangible asset decreases the value of that asset. Similarly, as the competitiveness of the downstream market into which the intangible asset increases, the value of the intangible decreases. Finally, as the intangible asset investment cost comprises more of a firm’s total costs, its value diminishes. The rate of depreciation of an intangible asset has a clear, downward, effect on its value. All else equal, the faster an intangible asset depreciates, the lower is its value. As an example, it is well known that the returns to advertising-related investments are fairly short-lived.9 This places a natural limit on the expected future cash flows from sunk advertising investments, and thus a limit on value. The expected rate of return on intangible capital is obviously also an important determinant of value.10 As the rate of return to intangible investments increases, so too does the value of the intangibles that those investments create. Correspondingly, as the required rate of return to intangible asset investments (i.e., the discount rate or cost of intangible capital) increases, the value of the See for example, Ayanian (1983), Hirschey (1985), Landes and Rosenfield (1994), and Graham and Frankenberger (2000). 10 It bears noting here that because intangible assets generate monopoly power, the expected rate of return to intangible assets is not necessarily the same thing as the required rate of return. For example, assume that a firm develops a patented compound after $100 of initial R&D investment, but requires another $100 to complete the R&D on that patent. It may very well be that the firm’s expected rate of return on the next $100 of R&D is much higher than its required return – particularly if the market for the product that will embody the compound is a large and profitable one. 9 DRAFT 8 intangibles produced by those investments decreases. This is simply a result of the mechanics of discounted present value. An interesting implication of this is that as the realized rate of return to intangible asset investments increases, the amount of residual profit in the system rises, which in turn decreases the systematic risk of the residual profit stream. In other words, increasing the firm’s residual profit margin (residual profit / sales) is tantamount to decreasing the operating leverage facing the intangible asset investments. This, in turn, decreases the riskiness of the cash flows generated by intangible asset investments. This increases their value. In short, there is a secondary, positive, value effect of an increase in the rate of return to intangible asset investments – namely, it lowers the discount rate associated with the intangible capital’s cash flows. The specificity, or re-deployability, of an intangible asset can also affect its value, although the effect on value depends upon what definition of value we are using. A highly specific asset – meaning an asset that is not re-deployable into other uses – is inherently more limited in its market value than a similarly situated asset that has other potential uses. This is obvious – other potential uses are embedded options, and options have value. However, a highly specific asset may have higher value in use, meaning value to the firm that owns that asset, because of its specificity. That is, the specificity of the intangible capital to a given product, or a given customer, may be the very thing that produces monopoly power for the firm. Thus, specificity has an interesting value implication – it may decrease market value, and at the same time may increase value in use. While we have discussed riskiness, we did so with a focus on “systematic” risk – that is, risk that is not diversifiable. However, the failure risk associated with completion, or ongoing maintenance, of an intangible asset is also value-relevant. All else equal, the higher is the risk of failure to complete, or failure to maintain, an intangible, the lower is the value of that asset. The property right characteristics of an intangible asset also have an influence on value. All else equal, broader scope and greater ease of defense of property rights surrounding intangible capital increase the value of that intangible capital. Finally, the degree to which marketing-related and technology-related intangible assets complement one another increases, all else equal, the value of both types DRAFT 9 of intangibles. As noted earlier, firms with deep and wide sales and marketing channels can make more productive use of technology, and vice versa. There is a famous court case, Georgia-Pacific Corp. v. United States Plywood Corp., that describes 15 considerations, now known as the Georgia Pacific factors, that may have an influence the value of an intangible asset. While the Georgia Pacific case centered on a patent dispute, and therefore some of the factors described therein are specific to patent assets, many of the Georgia Pacific Factors have general applicability across most or all intangible asset categories. The Georgia Pacific factors include the following. The scope and strength of the property rights surrounding the asset. The pricing or other monopoly power conveyed by the asset, and maintained by the owner of the asset. The economic relationship of parties transacting over the asset (i.e., are the competitors or co-promoters?). The complementarity of the asset with other assets and lines of business. The duration of the asset’s usefulness, and the duration of property rights surrounding the asset. The asset’s profitability. The asset’s uniqueness. Obviously, these factors are consistent with, and in fact are implied by, the discussion directly above. Examples of Technology and Customer-based Intangibles IV. As noted earlier, we think of intangible capital as falling into two primary categories: technology-based and customer-based. It is worth taking a moment to describe some examples of each type. Customer-based intangible capital may include the following. Marketing-generated Customer Awareness. Marketing investments such as advertising, trade show participation, and other forms of marketing serve to increase the awareness of a firm’s products or services, thus serving to increase revenues. These investments are durable, in the sense that they pay off over time. Further, the revenue response to certain types of marketing (i.e., advertising) is well studied. Thus, we can speak of a customer awareness asset. That is, there is an asset that results from sunk DRAFT 10 advertising and other marketing expenditures, and this asset is essentially the future revenue response from previously sunk advertising investments. It bears noting that the customer awareness asset is likely a short-lived one, relative to certain other forms of intangible capital.11 Selling-generated Customer Relationships. Sales activities, particularly those carried out by a trained and capable sales force, often represent an intangible development cost.12 These investments can give rise to valuable customer relationships. Customer relationship intangibles have at least two important characteristics that are worth noting. First, their durability tends to be greater than that of marketing and advertising driven customer awareness, for the obvious reason that awareness of a firm in the minds of customers is more transient than actual relationships with customers. Second, customer relationship intangibles are not the same thing as a “customer list.” It is frequently noted that “customer lists” may have value. However, a list is just that – a list. Customer lists only have value to the extent that customer relationships underpin the list. Brand and Trademark. Brand and trademark capital provides customers with an assurance of stability, and a signal of quality. These, in turn, give rise to an expectation of future patronage by customers. Trademark assets do not necessarily result from a single kind of intangible asset investment (such as marketing), but rather have value because all of the firm’s investments and capabilities combine to produce a positive image in the minds of the firm’s customers. Nonetheless, it is fair to say that the value of trademark and brand assets is in fact more heavily influenced by marketing and selling activity than by other intangible development costs. Further, trademark assets tend to be quite durable. Instances can be found of abandoned trademarks, purchased and held for years by firms that One interesting question is whether or not price reductions or discounts from a “standard” or “list” price represent a marketing. In general, price reductions for existing customers are a form of price discrimination. As such, they represent the exercise of market power by the firm (pricing at the highest price that the market will bear, on a customer-specific basis), rather than an investment in obtaining market power. By contrast, discounts provided in order to obtain a new customer are real reductions in profit that produce later benefits. As such, they may represent investments in customer-based intangibles. 12 There are certainly some industries in which selling activity is commoditized in nature. However, in complex industries, where the sales activity is highly technical, selling activity also gives rise to what economists call “localized market information.” Localized information, as the name implies, is information that is non-public and difficult to obtain in the open market. Localized information may take the form of customer-specific information (such as customer spending patterns, preferences, and the like), or other information related to market structure and the competitive landscape. 11 DRAFT 11 specialize in investment and ownership in trademark assets, that are later revived after a decade or more of dormancy. It is worth noting that trademark and brand assets are similar in nature to the concept of “goodwill,” which we discuss below. Correspondingly, technology-related intangible assets may include the following. Patents. Patents are legal property rights over technology that provide their owner (or the owner’s assignee or licensee) with exclusivity over commercialization of the technology (i.e., the right to make and sell products that embody the technology). Patent rights are granted by a government body, for technology that is deemed new, useful, and nonobvious. In the United States, for example, patents can be issued for a “process, machine, manufacture, or composition of matter, or any new and useful improvement thereof.” The word “process” is defined as a process, act or method, and includes industrial or technical processes. “Manufacture” refers to articles that are made, and includes all manufactured articles. Finally, “composition of matter” relates to chemical compositions and may include mixtures of ingredients as well as new chemical compounds. These classes of subject matter taken together include practically everything that is made by man, and/or the processes involved. The question of the economic life, or durability, of patented technology is an important one. In some industries, the life of a patent is the primary determinant of the economic usefulness of a technology. That is, in some industries, the life of the patent is quite close to (if not equal to) the economic useful life of the underlying technology. However, in other industries patent life can either be longer, or shorter, than the useful economic life of the patented technology.13 Trade Secrets. Trade secrets are technologies that are protected by actively maintaining secrecy, rather than by patenting. The reason that firms might choose to maintain a secret, rather than patenting the underlying technology, is that the act of patenting reveals the technology publicly. That is, in order to obtain a patent, one must file a public document that describes the technology in some detail. Therefore, once the patent expires, competitors can copy the technology. Moreover, See, for example, the line of economic research extending from Mansfield (1985) through Lemley (2009), indicating that patents in some industries may serve to provide monopoly power for a shorter period of time than the life of the patent right. 13 DRAFT 12 before the patent expires, competitors can often develop a sufficient understanding of the technology to develop a “work around,” which is an alternative, but functionally similar, technology. By contrast, trade secrets can be maintained indefinitely, so long as the technology does not leak into the public domain. Thus, technology assets that can be kept secret are, by definition, more likely to be trade secrets. One example is process technology. Another example is component technology that is relatively well hidden and is not easily backward engineered.14 The durability of trade secrets is obviously a function of how long the secret remains a secret. In general, trade secrets become public as the result of research or manufacturing employee turnover. As employees move to competitors, knowledge tends to leak to competitors.15 Know-how and Process Technology. Know-how, as the name implies, is knowledge about how to do something technical – usually related to a production process. Know-how can be protected by either patent or trade secret. At one level, almost any technology can be considered know how. However, in its common usage, know-how generally relates to production processes, rather than specific product attributes. Put differently, under the common distinction between “product” and “process” technology (where “product” technology refers to the designed characteristics of a product or service and “process” refers to the process by which that product or service is produced), know-how falls into the “process” category. Product Technology. As noted earlier, product technology is the bundle of designed characteristics of a product or service. Product technology can be deeply technical, such as the composition of matter for a pharmaceutical product, or the metal alloy for aircraft aluminum sheet. However, product technology can also be fairly trivial, such as the design elements of a window pane. Absent legal protection, product technology often has low durability, since valuable product characteristics can be easy for competitors to observe and replicate. Engineering and Tooling. One sometimes sees engineering and tooling characterized as a technology asset. For some companies, the engineering process involves customization of products for specific clients or markets. Engineering can thus produce pricing power by making a customer’s assets and processes specific to a customer. Engineering is also sometimes Posner (1998) has an excellent discussion of trade secrets versus patents. See Edwin Mansfield’s research for an excellent treatment of the rate at which technical knowledge diffuses into the public domain. 14 15 DRAFT 13 directed at the production process, and can result in cost saving technologies that the firm can retain for some period of time (meaning that the firm does not pass these efficiencies immediately to its customers through price cuts). Tooling is similar to engineering, in that it is the physical embodiment of a tailored production process – meaning that the production process is tailored to a very specific (often customer-specific) product. That is, tooling is a modification of plant and equipment in a way that is specific to a customer or product. For example, automotive OEMs and their suppliers have tooling that customizes their assembly lines to specific vehicles. As for durability, the economic life of engineering and tooling is sometimes limited by the production run(s) for the product involved. The durability of cost-related engineering is a function of its rate of leakage into the public domain. Certain examples exist of intangible assets that do not easily fall into the neat categories of “technology” or “customer-based” assets. The best example of this is goodwill. Goodwill is frequently defined as “the expectation of future patronage.” From a valuation perspective, goodwill is the present value of the profit stream that the firm expects to realize after the point in the future at which currently existing assets will have amortized away. But what kind of intangible asset, exactly, is goodwill? The answer is, unfortunately, “all of the above.” That is, goodwill is the “asset” that results from the combination and coordination of all of the firm’s assets and capabilities. Goodwill is thus similar, if not identical, to the concept of “going concern.” In a sense, goodwill is the firm itself. That is, goodwill exists when the firm exists as a going concern, and does not when the firm does not. The question of how goodwill relates to specific identifiable intangible assets is an important one – particularly in the tax area. In some tax contexts, such as transfer pricing, governments (and occasionally taxpayers) at times take the position that there is no such thing as goodwill. That is, goodwill is really just today’s expectation of future profit that results from today’s stock of, say, technology. Put differently, goodwill is nothing more than the sum present value of future profit flows resulting from future technology generations. This position is controversial, and one that we take up later in this book. DRAFT 14 V. Outline of This Book The remainder of this book contains three sections. Section I is entitled “Analytical Framework,” and contains six chapters. We have two objectives in Section I. First, these chapters provide the reader with the tools to understand and price intangible assets. Section I is heavy on analytics, and most of the Excel™ files that accompany this book pertain to the chapters in this section. Second, we present several analytical approaches to the pricing and valuation of intangible assets that we believe are, in some sense, “new.” That is, some of the models that we describe – particularly some of the analysis presented in Chapters 4 through 7 – may represent new thinking (or at least important advancements of current thinking) in the area of intangible asset pricing and valuation. Section I begins in Chapter 2, with a discussion of “residual profit,” which is the return to, or profit generated by, intangible assets. This is foundational, since understanding the profit that accrues to the firm because of its intangible assets is the first step in pricing this form of capital. In addition, Chapter 2 introduces the reader to the concept of an intangible capital stock, and the mathematical relationships between the stock of intangible capital, and the flows of depreciation and residual profit over time. We then turn in Chapter 3 to the topic of discount rates. Chapter 3 first describes a method for determining the required rate of return to intangible assets – or more specifically, to residual profit. Chapter 3 then turns to the question of the appropriate discount rate in a licensing context. Since the most common market transaction involving intangible assets is licensing, it is important to understand the systematic risk characteristics of flows of licensing income (or royalty costs), and how these differ from the systematic risk inherent in residual profit flows. Chapter 4 then offers a discussion of the concept of “economic life,” and presents a new analytical treatment of the concept. We find that this topic, which is of course fundamental to valuing intangible assets, is one that practitioners frequently approach in a haphazard, poorly thought out, way. We therefore attempt to put some structure around the concept of economic life. In addition, we offer a novel approach to estimating economic life, showing that economic life (under one definition) is a function of the rate of return to intangible asset investments, and the amount of gross residual profit realized by the firm. DRAFT 15 Chapter 5 then begins our treatment of valuation and intangible asset pricing. Chapter 5 is one of the core chapters in our book – as we call it, a “workhorse” chapter. Chapter 5 begins by describing a basic approach to the valuation of intangibles that discounts to present value the intangible asset stock’s claim over gross residual profit. That is, we show the reader how intangible development costs generate a stock of intangible capital, the way in which that stock of capital claims expected residual profit in future time periods, and how that residual profit should be discounted to present value. As part of this discussion, we describe the relationship between “gross” and “net” intangible asset profits (residual profit). We introduce an equilibrium condition in which the available gross residual profit attributable to an intangible asset must equal net residual profit, in present value. We explain the assumptions under which this equivalence is in fact an equilibrium, and we describe the valuation implications. Chapter 5 then turns to the topic of estimation of arm’s length royalty rates. This is a topic of great importance in contexts as varied as IP damages, tax, purchase accounting, and third party licensing and joint venture negotiations. Chapter 5 shows how the valuation model described directly above can be extended to a model of equilibrium, arm’s length, royalty rates. That is, we convert our intangible asset valuation framework very naturally into a model of licensorlicensee negotiation. In essence, Chapter 5 provides the reader with an extremely general economic model that can be used to both to value a stock of intangible assets and to predict royalty rates. The model is rigorous, and the relationships that it uncovers are sometimes very surprising.16 For example, one interesting result is that, under the assumptions of our model, the expected rate of return to intangible asset investments predicts a unique arm’s length royalty rate, to which licensors and licensees would negotiate. Chapter 6 then extends our focus on licensing relationships. However, the emphasis in Chapter 6 is on profit sharing, or “profit splitting” as it is sometimes called, between licensors and licensees. We discuss the lineage, utility, and case law surrounding, the profit split “rule of thumb.” To be clear, we do not advocate the use of a profit split rule of thumb as a primary means of estimating arm’s length royalty rates. Rather, our emphasis in Chapter 6 is to provide 16 Although we show that upon reflection our findings are quite intuitive. DRAFT 16 further explanation for why licensees are different from routine manufacturers / distributors. In other words, we offer the reader an opportunity for further exploration of the question of why licensees capture a share of the residual profit from licensed products, and a framework for thinking about the magnitude of the “licensee share.” Finally, Chapter 7 forms the last chapter in Section I. The focus in Chapter 7 is on what valuation professionals refer to as the “cost approach,” or the “work around approach.” If a purchaser or licensee of an intangible asset has a realistically available alternative to “make” rather than “buy” the intangible, and making is cheaper than buying, then the highest price that the intangible asset will fetch is in fact the cost to self develop, or replicate, the intangible property. This is obviously just simple opportunity cost reasoning. However, as we show, implementation of the replication cost, or work around, approach is not necessarily straightforward. In addition to the question of how much it would cost to replicate an intangible asset, several other tricky considerations present themselves. For example, is a legal work around possible? If so, how much time (and therefore market penetration) is lost by implementing a work around? The cost of replication method is an important “test of reasonableness” for the methodologies described in earlier chapters, but its implementation can be complex. It bears noting that, where appropriate, Section I provides the reader with both a mathematical representation of the key valuation concepts and tools surrounding the pricing and valuation of intangible assets, and an Excel™-based set of models that implement the approaches we describe. We approach the analytical sections of this book in this way so that the reader can use either mathematical models, or Excel™ models, or both to put the concepts into practice. Section II, Empirical Analysis, is an extended discussion of what we can observe in the open market. That is, Section II provides the reader with the good sense for what royalty rates, profit splits, intangible development costs, and residual profit look like, by industry. Section II is not meant to be completely exhaustive (although it is quite detailed). Rather, the intent of Section II is to prepare professionals in the valuation, licensing, and legal community for what they will see in the real world. Section II contains four chapters. Chapters 8 and 9 cover royalty rates, by industry. Chapter 8 focuses on technology royalty rates, offering the reader empirical results for observed royalty rates across 40 industry groupings. DRAFT 17 Correspondingly, Chapter 9 focuses on trademark licenses, covering a similar set of industry groupings. Chapter 10 then takes up the question of profit splits. While we usually cannot observe the profit sharing between licensees and licensors, there are some contexts in which this is in fact possible. We walk the reader through the cases where such observations can be made, and the results obtained. We also make an attempt at testing the model developed in Chapter 5. Finally, Chapter 11 extends a discussion that was begun in Chapter 2. Specifically, Chapter 13 examines levels of intangible development cost by industry, as well as residual profit levels by industry. Results from Chapter 11 are also included in the Excel™ files that accompany this book. The final section of this book is Section III, Applications. Section III contains four chapters. Chapters 12 through 14 provide examples of “real life” intangible asset valuations or licensing determinations in three industries. Chapter 12 describes the valuation of a pharmaceutical compound. Correspondingly, Chapter 13 offers a case study involving the pricing of software intangibles. Finally, Chapter 14 provides an example of a consumer goods trademark valuation. The final chapter of Section III, Chapter 15, is a comparison of the main features of intangible asset valuation and pricing within the two primary “regulatory” contexts in which intangible asset valuation is relevant. These are IP damages and transfer pricing. We show that while the legal frameworks in which valuations are conducted in these two contexts differ, the approaches are largely the same. Where there are differences, we describe and explain them. Our sincere hope is that this book provides the reader with a strong technical and empirical introduction to intangible asset pricing and valuation. Obviously, there are places where the book, and the accompanying Excel™ files can be improved. We welcome your criticisms and suggestions. Comments, criticisms, suggestions, and questions, can be e-mailed to us at timothy.reichert@gmail.com, and icgray@gmail.com. DRAFT