Sender: Beyond Zero Emissions Inc. Address: Kindness House Suite 10, Level 1 288 Brunswick Street Fitzroy, Victoria 3065 Phone: +61 3 9415 1301 info@bze.org.au Dear Minister Lily D'Ambrosio, Renewable Energy Roadmap – Submission from Beyond Zero Emissions Beyond Zero Emissions (BZE) welcomes the opportunity to contribute to the Victorian Government’s Renewable Energy Roadmap. Background Following the Copenhagen climate conference in 2009 there appeared to be general agreement that the increase in global temperature should be below 2O. However, at just 0.8O of global warming we are already noticing the influence of climate change (Arctic and Antarctic ice-melting, more damaging tropical storms, more severe bushfires, ocean acidification, etc.). Many scientists are now warning that there is little or no budget left for fossil fuel burning if we are to avoid damaging climate change. Some of the factors that could influence Victoria’s policies are: Our emissions per capita are amongst the highest in the world. Our brown coal-fired generators produce relatively cheap electricity, currently supplying about 85% of our power. Under current Federal and state government policies, these generators are not penalised for their relatively high emissions. The Federal government’s reluctance to put a price on GHG emissions. Can direct action help in our transition away from fossil fuels? In the USA regulations have been tightened to reduce emissions from power generators. This should be considered here, in addition to a VRET. Energy efficiency measures will reduce electricity demand. On the other hand, more electricity will be needed for electric road vehicles, expanded tram and train services and the installation of electric heat pumps replacing gas heaters. The building of Victoria’s additional renewable energy electricity sources, mainly wind and PV, should be relatively straight forward. PV prices have dropped by a third over the past few years and are expected to become cheaper. Batteries for energy storage are also becoming cheaper. Pumped hydro for energy storage, with wind power working in conjunction with hydro, will also need to be considered. “Smart grids” and micro grids will also become more common. What are the drivers (carrots/sticks)? The original MRET forced “liable entities” such as energy retailers, to include a specified proportion of the electricity they supply from renewable energy sources. We suggest the same approach is undertaken for the VRET. The most important factor is to ensure that Victorian renewable energy policy remains stable in the face of changes to Federal government policy. With the emergence of a renewable energy target and carbon price at Federal levels, state government policies in these areas were eroded or severely limited. Now that Federal policies on renewable energy and carbon pricing have been abolished or watered down, there is an absence of sound state government policy to fill the gap. The VRET and other Victorian renewable energy policies need to be designed to be robust and withstand these changes in the future. Terminology Emission reduction targets are generally expressed as a % reduction relative to the emissions in a base year. There are various emission sectors such as Economy-wide Emissions, Emissions from the Stationary Energy sector, Agriculture, etc. It will be easier to make reductions in some sectors than others. The Commonwealth Renewable Energy Target (RET) set a target for an additional 20% of electricity to come from renewable sources by 2020 compared with 1997. To provide certainty, the target for 2020 was set at 41,000 GWh. We expect a Victorian Renewable Energy Target (VRET) would have a similar type of definition. The Emission Reduction target considered here have a much broader scope than the Renewable Energy targets. Emission Reduction Targets In the lead up to the 2015 Paris conference industrialised countries have published their targets for Emission Reductions as listed in Table 1. Table 1: Emission Reduction Targets, Australia and other industrialised countries for Paris 20151 Location Base Year Target Year Australia Canada USA Japan EU New Zealand 2005 2005 2005 2013 1990 2005 2030 2030 2025 2030 2030 2030 Economy-wide Emissions Reduction Target 26%-28% 30% 26%-28% 26% 40% at least 30% The Australian Climate Change Authority (CCA) considers the Australian government emission reduction targets are inadequate. The CCA Emission Reduction Targets are listed in Table 2. Table 2: Climate Change Authority Emission Reduction Targets2 Base Year Target Year 2000 2000 2000 2020 2025 2030 Economy-wide Emissions Reduction Target 19% 30% 40%-60% The “EU Roadmap 2050” is working on a practical guide to achieve at least 80% reduction in GHG emissions below 1990 levels by 2050. What should the Victorian Renewable Targets be? Recent Australian RET policy announcements are listed in Table 3. Table 3: Recent RET policy announcements in Australia Jurisdiction ACT South Australia Queensland Victoria Federal Labor Reduction 90% 50% 50% 20% 50% By 2020 2025 2030 2020 2030 Assume the base year for these reductions is 2015. The effect of Victorian Renewable Energy targets will be to grow Victoria’s renewable energy power resources. However, additional measures will be needed to ensure the increase in 1 Figures 2.8 and 5.2 in https://www.dpmc.gov.au/sites/default/files/publications/Setting%20Australias%20p ost-2020%20target%20for%20reducing%20greenhouse%20gas%20emissions_0.pdf 2 http://www.climatechangeauthority.gov.au/reviews/targets-and-progress-review-3 available renewable energy is accompanied by a corresponding reduction in coal-fired power generation and the energy contribution from burning gas. We recognise that reducing Victoria’s GHG emissions from electricity generation will be relatively straight forward. However, reducing emissions from transport, agriculture and some industries will be more difficult. Therefore, the VRET reduction rate must be steeper than the desired GHG emission reduction rate. BZE suggests the VRET should be well below the CCA Emission Reduction targets (Table 2). We consider Australia should aim to approach the EU Roadmap 2050 for GHG emissions. Table 4 lists the suggested VRET targets. Figure 1 compares the renewable energy targets in different jurisdictions. Table 4: Suggested Minimum Renewable Energy Targets for Victoria Year 2015 2020 2025 2030 Renewable Energy Target 0% 33% 67% 100% Figure 1: Renewable Energy Targets 2015 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% ACT Queensland Australian government ERT South Australia Federal Labor Suggested VRET Beyond Zero Emissions has shown that it is technically possible for Australia to generate 100% of its electricity from renewable energy sources. This work has been backed up by numerous studies, including by the Australian Energy Market Operator. Victoria should set ambitious renewable energy targets, to meet the climate challenge but also to grow jobs in the sustainable industries of the future. Victoria is blessed with vast wind resources and opportunities for pumped storage hydro along the Victorian coastline, as well as solar in its inland areas. A target of 90% by 2030 should be seen as a minimum target, with a more ambitious target of 100% by 2030 also achievable. This is possible to achieve if Victoria also sources its renewable energy from other jurisdictions, as the ACT is doing to achieve its target of 90% by 2020. Opportunities There is greater growth of renewables than fossil fuelled power plants globally (ref: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-14/fossil-fuels-just-lost-the-raceagainst-renewables). Renewables have shown to be cheaper than coal in most jurisdictions. Across the Tasman, New Zealand has closed the last of its coal-fired power stations (ref: http://reneweconomy.com.au/2015/cheaper-renewables-force-closure-of-nzs-last- coalfired-power-units-80442). New Zealand has large deposits of coal, but showing itself to be clean and green is also growing its exports of its agricultural produce and branding its produce as NZ clean and green. Lower cost of renewables is not the only reason for the increase in renewables globally. In the US state of California, with its sizeable contributions from solar power the worst drought in 1200 years that has depleted hydroelectric power stations has not caused any power outages as would have happened otherwise (ref: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-26/california-just- had-a-stunningincrease-in-solar). But it has also meant that most focus of industry and investment has been in the renewables space. This is where Australia has suffered. The uncertainty in the country over government policy has had a disastrous effect on capital flight out of Australia, reduced investment and consequent job losses. In Australia, investment in renewables is at its lowest levels since 2009 and has in fact plummeted. For far too long the renewables industry has been seen as a cost and not as an opportunity in debates across Australia. With the automotive industry effectively shutting down, Victoria could create manufacturing opportunities for solar and wind power products. Summary Thus in summary this is a crucial milestone for the state of Victoria, a key cross roads. While coal might have served us well in the past, the continued extension in the life and serviceability of ageing coal fired power stations is not in the State’s best interest. A more aggressively targeted approach to expanding the renewable energy industry is important for the long term future well being and economic sustainability of the people of the state. The targets we have suggested in this VRET submission, that is 100% by 2030, is both viable and necessary. Dr Stephen Bygrave CEO Beyond Zero Emissions 28 September 2015