UNICEF MOZAMBIQUE
REQUEST FOR CONTRACT FOR SERVICES
UNICEF Mozambique - TERMS OF REFERENCE
Child-centered risk and vulnerability assessment, 2013
1. Background and Context
Mozambique faces frequent severe natural hazards leading to disasters as they interface with various
levels of vulnerability. This often causes loss of human lives, destruction of infrastructures, disruption
of social services and economic activities, and damage of livelihood assets. It provokes recurrent
setback of development efforts and condemns both rural and urban populations to slide periodically
into further vulnerability and poverty. The country has been also experiencing the effects of climate
change whether in terms of seasonal changes, high sea levels, and increase temperature and change in
the patterns of rainfall.
Mozambique experiences occurrence of multiple hazards; some parts of the country are more exposed
and susceptible than others to specific hazards than others. This includes natural, climate change
impact driven hazards, and man-made hazards. In effect, 25% of the population lives in areas at risk
of multiple hazards and vulnerabilities, lacking disaster-resistant infrastructure, with little observance
of disaster-sensitive land-use and planning, while poor or non-respected regulation fail to mitigate
risks. The tables below depict the impact of natural disasters occurred in past three centuries and the
country disaster risk profile.
Table 1: Summary disaster risk profile
Table 2: Population exposed to disaster risks
Hazard Type
Population
exposed
Country ranking
Natural Disasters from 1980 - 2010
No of events:
75
No of people killed:
104,840
Cyclone
233,559
21st out of 89
Average killed per year:
3,382
No of people affected:
23,317,164
Average affected per year:
752,167
Economic Damage (US$ X 1,000):
Economic Damage per year (US$ X
1,000):
802,650
Drought
Flood
Landslide
Earthquake
1,356,890
114,760
568
23,309
46th out of 184
24th out of 162
79th out of 162
91st out of 153
Tsunami
8,540
46th out of 76
25,892
Source: see1
The cumulative impact of reoccurring small- and large-scale disasters drain substantial resources from
government budgets, hampers national development efforts, depletes coping strategies, and forces
UNICEF Country Office to deviate from the planned development programmes. If DRR and Climate
Change Adaptation (CCA) are not systematically integrated into government, partners and UNICEF’s
plans, programmes, policies and practices, this pattern is likely worsen due to increased exposure,
poor development practices, pervasive vulnerability and poverty, environmental degradation and
climate change impact.
1
http://www.preventionweb.net/english/countries/statistics/index.php?cid=117
DRR and CCA have been identified as cross-cutting themes in the Government PARP, UNDAF, and
UNICEF’s Country Programme Document for 2012-2015. To achieve increased national resilience to
disasters, crises and external shocks, the agencies within the Economic Development Results Group
(DRG Economic 3) will focus on capacity development and support to vulnerable populations.
From UNICEF’s perspective, there is a need to understand that disaster risk reduction and climate
change adaptation is closely linked with development in general and in relation to children in
particular. Children are recognized as the most vulnerable population worldwide to disasters and
climate change because they already suffer the greatest burden of climate sensitive diseases such as
malaria, malnutrition, and diarrhea; demand adequate nutrition for cognitive and physical
development; and are dependent on adults for their safety during extreme events and under social
stress, while they could play a significant role in reducing risks and responding to disasters.
For example, in the recent floods in the Limpopo basin in January 2013, around 69,000 school
children were displaced and left without schools and lessons, causing severe disruption of schooling2.
However, no thorough analysis exists to assess the impact of disasters on children in complex
environment in Mozambique
2. Justification
Despite the progress in preparedness, our current emergency/crisis risk related planning processes are
overlapping and have been developed outside of UNICEF’s core Country Programme process which
guides the work and resources of UNICEF Country Offices.
Child-centered risk assessment is a fundamental step towards risk informed development
programming aimed at seeking both to protect the development investments themselves against
hazards including hazards driven by climate change impact and to strengthen community resilience.
Such an assessment helps to integrate risk reduction in the development process rather than
considering DRR as an end in itself.
UNICEF Situation analyses (SitAns) are generally developed for three main purposes: advocacy for
children, informing programming at strategic level, and influencing government and partners’
priorities for children. In regards to the second purpose (programming), as an evidence-based
organization, UNICEF programmes need to be developed on the basis of a sound child-centered
analysis of disaster (including climate change) and conflict risks when appropriate. These risks will
significantly impact the realization of child rights and attainment of Millennium Development Goals,
and may result in emergencies requiring a UNICEF response.
The development of child-centered vulnerability and risk assessment, as a complementary exercise to
the SitAn, will help ensure that UNICEF Country Programmes proactively reduce disaster risks for
children. The conclusions of the analysis also could provide an opportunity for advocacy and fundraising around Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation sensitivity of programmes3.
3. Purpose and objectives
The overall objective of the consultancy is to develop a combined child-centred multi-hazard-risk and
vulnerability analytical mapping. The result analysis of the child-centered multi-hazard risk
2
3
Mozambique floods 2013 - consolidated early recovery strategy, HCT, April 2013.
UNICEF Technical Note: Emergency Risk Informed Situation Analysis, August 2012.
assessment will contribute to the elaboration of UNICEF SitAn in 2013 as part of the core analysis of
the situation of children in Mozambique, eventually to inform and influence programme planning.
Specific objectives:
i.
ii.
iii.
Propose a set of disaster risk indicators at provincial and district levels.
Based on the set of indicators on child vulnerability (under development by UNICEF
Planning team) as well as on the identified disaster risk indicators, build a combined
disaster risk and child vulnerability index.
Prepare and present a technical report on the main finding.
4. Methodology and Technical Approach
Innovative and uniqueness of the approach
Child centred risk assessment is a fundamental step towards risk informed development programming
aimed at seeking both to protect the development investments themselves against natural hazards and
to strengthen community resilience. Such an assessment helps to integrate risk reduction in the
development process rather than considering DRR as an end in itself.
Disaster risk could be measured as the potential damage and loss, due to the occurrence of a hazard
(hazards) interfacing with the vulnerability of objects at risk, at specific time and location.
Each component or element in the risk analysis could be unpacked and broken down into various
parameters that determine its level or value.
The hazard(s) identification, mapping, analysis and assessment are initial steps towards assessing
disaster risk. This requires gathering and analysing information on pertinent aspects or characteristics
of hazards (frequency, magnitude, duration, impacts etc.) in order to assess hazards. These
characteristics vary from one type of hazard to another and their assessment or measurement differs
accordingly.
Measuring risk is a subjective process as measuring of its elements is not a straight forward process
where indirect or proxy measures or methods might be used wherever data is not available. For
example, while it is possible to estimate the value of potential or actual infrastructure damage, it is
difficult to estimate value of human loss (death, injuries and suffering). Therefore, the objective of
the proposed assessment shall be an indicative, where the results shall indicate to and inform the
country office where the most vulnerable are, why they are vulnerable, for what hazards, and their
locations.
Methodology
There are previous experiences of conducting child-centered multi-hazard risk assessments done by
UNICEF Country Offices (Nepal, India, Philippines and Pakistan). They used different methodologies
to conduct child centered vulnerability and risk assessment, a combination of qualitative, quantitative
and spatial assessment methods were used to give relative measures of disaster risks in different
districts in those countries. This is in addition to other types of analysis (e.g. rights-based and
qualitative studies) were used to identify rights-holders/duty-bearers and the enabling/disenabling
factors that influence children disaster risks in relation to multi hazards.
In the case of Mozambique, given the limitation of reliable disaggregated data, time and funding
constraints, the following possible methodology is suggested and will need to be assessed in terms of
the context of the country. The multi-hazard and child-centered risk assessment will be conducted in
parallel to the SitAn in order to provide a comprehensive risk-informed situation analysis and
programme plan.
Quantitative assessment
This type of assessments relies heavily on available and recent data that shall be used to measure the
elements and level of risk. The data must be reliable and available to all districts or provinces of the
country or where the assessment is planned to be conducted. Such assessment may allow a
comparison between the levels of child vulnerability and disaster risk in various locations of the
country, and ensure consistency. However, same question as in qualitative assessment will need to be
addressed i.e. what indicators will constitute vulnerability, values. There is a need to build a
consensus about those indicators and how to make use of them to measure each component with the
disaster risk. Relying on readily available data and applying it to calculate risk levels may not reveal
or help understanding the causal relationships between the different elements of disaster risk and child
vulnerability.
Based on spatial analysis of disaster risks and child vulnerability indicators in Mozambique (the latter
being developed by UNICEF Mozambique, in particular in the area of health and education) by using
DHS data, INE District Administrative data, among others), it should be possible to analyze the effect
of disaster risks into the overall child vulnerability by building a combined disaster risk and child
vulnerability index.
Under the guidance of Emergency Specialist, the consultant will undertake the following steps:
Step 1: Multi-hazard risk assessment
Disaster risk mapping to be completed based on historical and current data and information available
from different sources. This could be done manually (layering or overlaying regular maps of different
hazards) or using GIS and database software. Whether a manual or computerized systems or methods
are used, information and data from reliable sources will need to be obtained and verified, which
could be available from i.e. INE, INGC, UEM. FEWS-Net and line ministries among others. A
scientific multi-hazard assessment of Mozambique is yet to be developed, though there are single
hazard maps available for drought risk, flood risk and tropical storms. These maps are likely to exist
among scientific and/or educational institutions in the country.
A disaster risk measurement or index will be needed in order to measure the value of a risk(s) or level
of significance of risks in a province/ selected district, and to allow comparison between provinces/
selected districts.
Step 2: Child vulnerability assessment
The second step in assessing risk is assessing child vulnerability. This will use a child vulnerability
index that consists of a set of indicators, that are currently under development by the Planning team of
UNICEF (and that will be shared with the selected consultant/s).
Step 3: Overlaying multi-hazard (disaster risk) and child vulnerability data
Should a manual disaster risk and vulnerability mapping and analysis be done, map overlaying will be
used to assess and rank (colour coding could be used for different risk levels) levels of risk across the
country.
In order to combine a disaster risk assessment with UNICEF’s vulnerability index, a composite index
will be designed to allow weighted calculations of child risk and pilot a child-centered risk assessment
of the provinces/districts.
As follow-up, a mapping of child risks and vulnerability in all provinces and selected districts will be
produced. In order to allow for comparisons, all measures could be converted to relative numbers on a
scale from 0 to 10 and weight assigned based on the above distribution.
Step 4- Disaster Risk and vulnerability analysis
Following the assessment of disaster risk and child vulnerability, relative risk levels could be
measured. By calculating the value of disaster risk for all provinces and selected districts, a risk scale
could be established to allow comparison and ranking between the various provinces and districts.
5. Activities and Tasks






Review and discuss with relevant UNICEF staff the feasibility and adjustment of the technical
approach defined.
Identify, analyze and organize official data sources of information (databases) related to
disaster risk indicators.
Engage with the government and other UN related partners in the discussion in order to
ensure consent by the relevant stakeholders
Develop a composite child-centered risk index and measuring methodology and elaborate a
technical report of its implications, including spatial analysis.
Present and validate with UNICEF staff a draft version of the child-centered risk and
vulnerability assessment and incorporate comments and suggestions received.
Produce final risk assessment including data, composite index, spatial risk and vulnerability
analysis.
6. Deliverables
i.
ii.
iii.
iv.
A disaster risk index and database on multi-hazard and child development vulnerabilities at
provincial and district level (where data is available).
Quantitative and qualitative spatial risk assessment methodology and tools are developed and to
give a relative measure of the disaster risk index vulnerability of children in Mozambique.
Final risk assessment report, including data, composite index on combined disaster risk and child
vulnerability analysis, spatial risk and vulnerability analysis.
A brief summary analysis document containing key findings to be incorporated in the SITAN as
preparation for the Strategic reflection 2013 and onwards.
The work of the consultant has been organised to facilitate flexibility in approach as well as support
variations in focus and timing through the process. The consultant will develop a work-plan as first
assignment which will indicate specific deliverables for completion, based on the TOR. Once
approved, this will serve as the foundation for payment in three tranches.
7. Management, Organization and Schedule
The Consultant will report to the Emergency Specialist. In addition the consultant will be
advised by the Social Policy/SitAn co-ordination team, and will work in direct collaboration
with staff from all sections as a part of his/her assignment, and in consultation with the
Representative/Deputy Representative as required.
The assignment will start 9 September, 2013 and should end by 31 October, 2013.
8. Remuneration
The consultant will be paid as follows:
This will serve as the foundation for payment in three tranches:
Date
September 9 ,
2013
September 27 ,
2013
October 12, 2013
October 31, 2013
Deliverables expected
Work-plan and data gathering
Percentage to be paid
0
1st month will be dedicated for data consolidation,
construction of disaster risk and vulnerability index and
database.
Submission summary analysis of spatial disaster risk and
child vulnerability by September 27.
2nd month submission of spatial analytical report based on
the agreed risk and vulnerability index.
Final report including executive summary for publication. In
English and Portuguese.
TOTAL
33.3%
33.3%
33.3%
100%
9. Qualifications and Specialized Knowledge
The consultant should meet the following minimum requirements:
 Master or equivalent level in the Social Sciences, Monitoring and Evaluation or other
relevant field area.
 Conversant in Portuguese and English (written and spoken).
 At least five years of relevant work experience.
 Capacity to work in team building environment, and to work with minimum
supervision.
 Communication skills and abilities and written proficiency, including presentations
with resource to technology.
 Confident with the use of Windows and office package: Word, Excel, Access and
PowerPoint.
 Strategic thinking capacities and capacity to stress ideas and recommendations
clearly.
10. Conditions of Work
The equipment and materials needed to carry out this activity will be supported by the assignment.
Condition of work
To be provided by UN Agencies
Yes
No
no
Field Trip Transport
International Travel
Visa for internationally recruited
DSA
no
no
no
Security Clearance
no
Accidental
Death
Dismemberment
and
Medical coverage
Health Insurance
and
Accident
no
no
Remarks
Please indicate location and #
of travels
Please indicate itinerary
Please indicate # days
covered
Not required at this stage if
not travelling out of Maputo
For Consultants traveling
outside their country of
residence
Responsibility of consultants
and individual consultants
Office Space
Computer
Secretarial Services
Photocopier services
Other supplies
Yes
Partial
no
no
no
no
Please specify type
11. How to apply
Applications from interested candidates must contain the following documentation:

a.
b.
c.
d.
TECHNICAL PROPOSAL
Curriculum Vitae;
Letter of Motivation, with sample of work;
Technical Proposal;
Copies of recommendation letters.
 FINANCIAL PROPOSAL
The Financial Proposal shall be presented in Meticais or US$ and should include details of the
inherent costs of the consultancy as per point 8 above. Please notice that UNICEF accept no
liability for any taxes, duty or other contribution payable by the consultant on payments made
under this contract. No statement of earnings will be issued by the United Nations or UNICEF to
the consultant.
SUBMISSION:
The proposal (Technical/Financial) shall be presented to the UNICEF Office to the following e-mail:
hrmaputo@unicef.org
Subject:
BID Reference 2013/HR/012-1
Child-centered risk and vulnerability assessment,
CLOSING DATE TO RECEIVE APPLICATIONS: 03 September 2013
UNICEF is committed to gender equality in its mandate and its staff.
Well qualified candidates, particularly females are strongly encouraged to apply.
Only shortlisted applicants will be acknowledged.
UNICEF IS A SMOKE FREE ENVIRONMENT