REQUEST FOR BIDDING PROPOSALS
BID Reference 2013/HR/12
Child-centered risk and vulnerability assessment
Dear Madams/Sirs,
This is an invitation to express interest and present a technical and financial proposal on a Child-centered risk
and vulnerability assessment as per below detailed terms of reference (TORS) describing the tasks for which
technical assistance is sought.
1. Background and Context
Mozambique faces frequent severe natural hazards leading to disasters as they interface with various levels of
vulnerability. This often causes loss of human lives, destruction of infrastructures, disruption of social services
and economic activities, and damage of livelihood assets. It provokes recurrent setback of development efforts
and condemns both rural and urban populations to slide periodically into further vulnerability and poverty. The
country has been also experiencing the effects of climate change whether in terms of seasonal changes, high sea
levels, and increase temperature and change in the patterns of rainfall.
Mozambique experiences occurrence of multiple hazards; some parts of the country are more exposed and
susceptible than others to specific hazards than others. This includes natural, climate change impact driven
hazards, and man-made hazards. In effect, 25% of the population lives in areas at risk of multiple hazards and
vulnerabilities, lacking disaster-resistant infrastructure, with little observance of disaster-sensitive land-use and
planning, while poor or non-respected regulation fail to mitigate risks. The tables below depict the impact of
natural disasters occurred in past three centuries and the country disaster risk profile.
United Nations Children’s Fund
1440, Zimbabwe Ave
P. O. Box 4713
Maputo, Mozambique
Telephone +258 21 481 100
Facsimile +258 21 491 679
www.unicef.org/mozambique
Table 1: Summary disaster risk profile
risks
Natural Disasters from 1980 - 2010
Table 2: Population exposed to disaster
Hazard
Type
Population
exposed
Country ranking
No of events:
75
No of people killed:
104,840
Cyclone
233,559
21st out of 89
Average killed per year:
3,382
No of people affected:
23,317,164
Average affected per year:
752,167
Economic Damage (US$ X 1,000):
Economic Damage per year (US$ X
1,000):
802,650
Drought
Flood
Landslide
Earthquake
1,356,890
114,760
568
23,309
46th out of 184
24th out of 162
79th out of 162
91st out of 153
Tsunami
8,540
46th out of 76
Source: see
25,892
1
The cumulative impact of reoccurring small- and large-scale disasters drain substantial resources from
government budgets, hampers national development efforts, depletes coping strategies, and forces UNICEF
Country Office to deviate from the planned development programmes. If DRR and Climate Change Adaptation
(CCA) are not systematically integrated into government, partners and UNICEF’s plans, programmes, policies
and practices, this pattern is likely worsen due to increased exposure, poor development practices, pervasive
vulnerability and poverty, environmental degradation and climate change impact.
DRR and CCA have been identified as cross-cutting themes in the Government PARP, UNDAF, and
UNICEF’s Country Programme Document for 2012-2015. To achieve increased national resilience to disasters,
crises and external shocks, the agencies within the Economic Development Results Group (DRG Economic 3)
will focus on capacity development and support to vulnerable populations.
From UNICEF’s perspective, there is a need to understand that disaster risk reduction and climate change
adaptation is closely linked with development in general and in relation to children in particular. Children are
recognized as the most vulnerable population worldwide to disasters and climate change because they already
suffer the greatest burden of climate sensitive diseases such as malaria, malnutrition, and diarrhea; demand
adequate nutrition for cognitive and physical development; and are dependent on adults for their safety during
extreme events and under social stress, while they could play a significant role in reducing risks and responding
to disasters.
1
http://www.preventionweb.net/english/countries/statistics/index.php?cid=117
United Nations Children’s Fund
1440, Zimbabwe Ave
P. O. Box 4713
Maputo, Mozambique
Telephone +258 21 481 100
Facsimile +258 21 491 679
www.unicef.org/mozambique
For example, in the recent floods in the Limpopo basin in January 2013, around 69,000 school children were
displaced and left without schools and lessons, causing severe disruption of schooling2. However, no thorough
analysis exists to assess the impact of disasters on children in complex environment in Mozambique
2. Justification
Despite the progress in preparedness, our current emergency/crisis risk related planning processes are
overlapping and have been developed outside of UNICEF’s core Country Programme process which guides the
work and resources of UNICEF Country Offices.
Child-centered risk assessment is a fundamental step towards risk informed development programming aimed
at seeking both to protect the development investments themselves against hazards including hazards driven by
climate change impact and to strengthen community resilience. Such an assessment helps to integrate risk
reduction in the development process rather than considering DRR as an end in itself.
UNICEF Situation analyses (SitAns) are generally developed for three main purposes: advocacy for children,
informing programming at strategic level, and influencing government and partners’ priorities for children. In
regards to the second purpose (programming), as an evidence-based organization, UNICEF programmes need
to be developed on the basis of a sound child-centered analysis of disaster (including climate change) and
conflict risks when appropriate. These risks will significantly impact the realization of child rights and
attainment of Millennium Development Goals, and may result in emergencies requiring a UNICEF response.
The development of child-centered vulnerability and risk assessment and the incorporation within the SitAn is a
fundamental undertaking to ensure that UNICEF Country Programmes proactively reduce disaster risks for
children. The conclusions of the analysis also could provide an opportunity for advocacy and fund-raising
around Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation sensitivity of programmes 3.
2
3
Mozambique floods 2013 - consolidated early recovery strategy, HCT, April 2013.
UNICEF Technical Note: Emergency Risk Informed Situation Analysis, August 2012.
United Nations Children’s Fund
1440, Zimbabwe Ave
P. O. Box 4713
Maputo, Mozambique
Telephone +258 21 481 100
Facsimile +258 21 491 679
www.unicef.org/mozambique
3. Purpose and objectives
The overall objective of the consultancy is to develop a combined child-centred multi-hazard-risk and
vulnerability analytical mapping. The result analysis of the child-centered multi-hazard risk assessment will
contribute to the elaboration of UNICEF SitAn in 2013 as part of the core analysis of the situation of children
in Mozambique, eventually to inform and influence programme planning.
Specific objectives:
i.
ii.
iii.
Propose a set of indicators on child vulnerability based on spatial, demographic, social dimensions
at provincial and district level (as possible) that can complement the SitAn process.
Build a child-centred risk and vulnerability index based on the technical approach defined in the
TDRs and on official sources of information and present a technical report on the main finding.
Harmonize the results of the child-centred risk and vulnerability assessment with the SitAn
analysis.
4. Methodology and Technical Approach
Innovative and uniqueness of the approach
Child centred risk assessment is a fundamental step towards risk informed development programming aimed at
seeking both to protect the development investments themselves against natural hazards and to strengthen
community resilience. Such an assessment helps to integrate risk reduction in the development process rather
than considering DRR as an end in itself.
Disaster risk could be measured as the potential damage and loss, due to the occurrence of a hazard (hazards)
interfacing with the vulnerability of objects at risk, at specific time and location. Basically there is an
agreement on the components or elements of disaster risk, with some variations, which are presented in the
following formula that predicts risk as a function of a hazard or hazards and vulnerabilities/capacity:
Risk = Hazard * Vulnerability
Capacity
Each component or element in the risk formula could be unpacked and broken down into various parameters
that determine its level or value.
The hazard(s) identification, mapping, analysis and assessment are initial steps towards assessing disaster risk.
This requires gathering and analysing information pertinent aspects or characteristics of hazards (frequency,
United Nations Children’s Fund
1440, Zimbabwe Ave
P. O. Box 4713
Maputo, Mozambique
Telephone +258 21 481 100
Facsimile +258 21 491 679
www.unicef.org/mozambique
magnitude, duration, impacts etc.) in order to assess hazards. These characteristics vary from one type of
hazard to another and their assessment or measurement differs accordingly.
The complexity of the vulnerability component has been at the core of numerous debates and academic work as
it has various complex, dynamic and interconnected dimensions. Beyond the exposure (i.e. presence at time of
hazard occurrence and proximity of the object from the hazard) and its susceptibility to the hazard, social,
economic and environmental aspects play significant factors of determining level of vulnerability. This means
that vulnerability shall be looked at as a combination of inherent (internal) and external factors (i.e. social,
economic, environment, political set up). Hence, assessing vulnerability is not a straightforward exercise and
requires an in-depth analysis of dynamic settings and power relationships that establish the root causes of
vulnerability. Vulnerability assessment is increasingly being seen as a key step towards undertaking and
integrating effective disaster risk reduction interventions and promoting resilience. It is important to realise that
some elements of vulnerability (i.e. social, environmental, and economic) render people and their assets
vulnerable to multiple hazards.
The capacity component reflects the level and status of institutional, organisational, and community capacity to
manage the disaster cycle. Analysing and assessing disaster risk capacity shall address among other elements
the legal, policy and administrative instruments for disaster management, structures, plan for emergency
preparedness, contingency, technical and operational response capacities, and recovery.
Measuring risk is a subjective process as measuring of its elements is not a straight forward process where
indirect or proxy measures or methods might be used wherever data is not available. For example, while it is
possible to estimate the value of potential or actual infrastructure damage, it is difficult to estimate value of
human loss (death, injuries and suffering). Therefore, the objective of the proposed assessment shall be an
indicative, where the results shall indicate to and inform the country office where the most vulnerable are, why
they are vulnerable, for what hazards, and their locations.
Methodology
There are previous experiences of conducting child-centered multi-hazard risk assessments done by UNICEF
Country Offices (Nepal, India, Philippines and Pakistan). They used different methodologies to conduct child
centered vulnerability and risk assessment, a combination of qualitative, quantitative and spatial assessment
methods were used to give relative measures of disaster risks in different districts in those countries. This is in
addition to other types of analysis (e.g. rights-based and qualitative studies) were used to identify rightsholders/duty-bearers and the enabling/disenabling factors that influence children disaster risks in relation to
multi hazards.
United Nations Children’s Fund
1440, Zimbabwe Ave
P. O. Box 4713
Maputo, Mozambique
Telephone +258 21 481 100
Facsimile +258 21 491 679
www.unicef.org/mozambique
In the case of Mozambique, giving the reliable data, time and funding constraints, the following possible
methodology is suggested and will need to be assessed in terms of the context of the country. The multi-hazard
and child-centered risk assessment will be conducted in parallel to the SitAn in order to provide a
comprehensive risk-informed situation analysis and programme plan.
Quantitative assessment based on socioeconomic data
This type of assessments relies heavily on available and recent data that shall be used to measure the elements
of risk (hazard, vulnerability and capacity) and level of risk. The data must be reliable and available to all
districts or provinces of the country or where the assessment is planned to be conducted. Such assessment may
allow a comparison between the levels of vulnerability and risk in various locations of the country, and ensure
consistency. However, same question as in qualitative assessment will need to be addressed i.e. what indicators
will constitute vulnerability, capacity and hazard values. There is a need to build a consensus about those
indicators and how to make use of them to measure each component in the risk formula. Relying on readily
available data and applying it to calculate risk levels may not reveal or help understanding the causal
relationships between the different elements of risk and vulnerability. This requires an in-depth analysis to
depict the progression of vulnerability and root causes (i.e. social structures, power relationships, gender equity,
governance) of disaster risks.
Based on spatial analysis of hazards, capacity and child vulnerability in Mozambique (by using DHS data for
example), it should be possible to analyze how UNICEF’S current focus contributes to risk and vulnerability
reduction.
Under the guidance of Emergency Specialist and the Planning and Monitoring Officer and in consultation with
UNICEF SitAn focal point as well as the SitAn consultant, the consultant will undertake the following steps:
Step 1: Multi-hazard risk assessment
Hazard mapping to be completed based on historical and current data and information available from different
sources. This could be done manually (layering or overlaying regular maps of different hazards) or using GIS
and database software. Whether a manual or computerized systems or methods are used, information and data
from reliable sources will need to be obtained and verified which could be available from i.e. INE, INGC,
FEWS-Net and line ministries. A scientific multi-hazard assessment of Mozambique is yet to be developed,
though there are single hazard maps available for drought risk, flood risk and tropical storms. These maps are
likely to exist among scientific and/or educational institutions in the country.
A hazard(s) measurement or index will be needed in order to measure the value of a hazard(s) or level of
significance of hazards in a province, and to allow comparison between provinces.
United Nations Children’s Fund
1440, Zimbabwe Ave
P. O. Box 4713
Maputo, Mozambique
Telephone +258 21 481 100
Facsimile +258 21 491 679
www.unicef.org/mozambique
Step 2: Child vulnerability assessment
The second step in assessing risk is assessing vulnerability. This will require a vulnerability index that consists
of a set of indicators. Indicators used in measuring the child survival index or wellbeing index could be used to
construct the intended vulnerability index4. The SitAn process applies a method for quantifying child wellbeing
based on a set of indicators related to child survival; education; water and sanitation; child protection, shelter
and information. Various data sources are available and could be used for measuring the indicators; Multi
indicator cluster survey (MICS) data from 2010 as well as recent data from the Demographic and Health
Survey (DHS) 2011. These indicators could be applied – and mapped. Weights could be established and
assigned to the indicators depends on the perception and analysis of their influence of contribution to the level
of vulnerability.
Another option is to use a selected set of indicators with a specific focus on children and women as most
vulnerable segments of the population and future contributors towards reducing risk and building resilience
could be driven from development indicators related to essential sectors such as Health, Education, WASH and
Nutrition. It is necessary to keep in mind that causes of child vulnerability are not inherent to children
themselves but goes beyond to societal and environmental factors (enabling environment).
It is necessary to conduct multi stakeholder consultations including government partners and UN agencies to
build a consensus around the constructed vulnerability index, and the indicators which makes up this index.
Moreover, the challenge is to maintain availability of data over time to measure this index periodically for
monitoring purposes so changes and trends could be captured and analyzed.
Step 3: Capacity assessment.
As described earlier, capacity to manage disaster risk at national, local and household level depends on various
factors and aspects, legal and policy related frameworks and instruments, management, financial and
administrative structures, risk perception, preparedness and contingency planning and response capacities. A
set of indicators could be identified to assess the various aspects of disaster risk management capacity; weights
could be also assigned to these indicators if they are deemed to contribute differently to the level of capacity.
Step 4: Overlaying multi-hazard and child vulnerability data
Should a manual hazard, vulnerability and capacity mapping and analysis done, overlaying the hazard,
vulnerability and capacity maps will be used to assess and rank (colour coding could be used for different risk
levels) levels of risk cross the country.
4
UNICEF Indonesia used the inverse of the child survival index to measure child vulnerability.
United Nations Children’s Fund
1440, Zimbabwe Ave
P. O. Box 4713
Maputo, Mozambique
Telephone +258 21 481 100
Facsimile +258 21 491 679
www.unicef.org/mozambique
In order to combine a multi-hazard risk assessment with UNICEF’s child wellbeing index, a composite index
will be designed to allow weighted calculations of child risk and pilot a child-centered risk assessment of the
provinces/districts.
As follow-up, a mapping of child-risks and vulnerability in all districts in the entire country will be produced.
In order to allow for comparisons, all measures could be converted to relative numbers on a scale from 0 to 10
and weight assigned based on the above distribution. Based on available data, the relative weight of the various
components in the risk formula will be defined as follows i.e.: Seismic hazard %, flood hazard %, cyclone,
child vulnerability % and capacity %.
Step 5- Risk and vulnerability analysis
Following to assessing and measuring hazards, vulnerability and capacity for all provinces and districts (or for
districts where data is available), risk levels could be measured by using the risk formula which was described
earlier. An additional analysis will be required to determine whether equal or different weights shall be
assigned to the elements of risk; H, V and C. By calculating the value of risk for all provinces (whether by
using different or equal weights for risk components) by using the risk formula, a risk scale could be
established to allow comparison between the various provinces of the country.
5. Activities and Tasks








Review and discuss with UNICEF staff and SitAn consultant the feasibility and adjustment of the
technical approach defined.
Identify, analyze and organize official data sources of information (databases) related to multi-hazard
and child development vulnerabilities indicators.
Engage with the government and other UN related partners in the discussion in order to ensure consent
by the relevant stakeholders
Develop a composite child-centered risk index and measuring methodology and elaborate a technical
report of its implications, including spatial analysis.
Present and validate with UNICEF staff and SitAn consultant a draft version of the child-centered risk
and vulnerability assessment and incorporate comments and suggestions received.
Support the SitAn consultant on the way assessment findings are incorporated within the SitAn
document.
Produce final risk assessment including data, composite index, spatial risk and vulnerability analysis.
Coordinate with the consultant who is carrying out the SitAn to explain and incorporate the risk
assessment in the child vulnerability and risk analysis.
United Nations Children’s Fund
1440, Zimbabwe Ave
P. O. Box 4713
Maputo, Mozambique
Telephone +258 21 481 100
Facsimile +258 21 491 679
www.unicef.org/mozambique
6. Deliverables
i.
ii.
iii.
iv.
A disaster risk index and database on multi-hazard and child development vulnerabilities at provincial and
district level (where data is available).
Quantitative and qualitative spatial risk assessment methodology and tools are developed and to give a
relative measure of the disaster risk index vulnerability of children in Mozambique.
Combined multi-hazard and child-survival vulnerability analysis, which considers natural hazards and
human factors (vulnerability/capacity), particularly consideration on child risks by focusing on aspects
related to child rights, survival, development and wellbeing (e.g. public health, immunization, food
security, nutrition, WASH, school enrolment, child protection, and gender).
The child-centered risk assessment findings are being incorporated in the SITAN as preparation for the
Mid Term Review 2013 and onwards.
The work of the consultant has been organised to facilitate flexibility in approach as well as support variations
in focus and timing through the process. The consultant will develop a work-plan as first assignment which
will indicate specific deliverables for completion, based on the TOR. Once approved, this will serve as the
foundation for payment in three tranches.
7. Management, Organization and Schedule
The Consultant will report to the Emergency Specialist with technical support from the Planning and
Monitoring Officer in the Social Policy, Planning and Information Management Section. In addition the
consultant will be advised by the Social Policy/SitAn co-ordination team as well as the SitAn consultant(s), and
will work in direct collaboration with staff from all sections as a part of his/her assignment, and in consultation
with the Representative/Deputy Representative as required.
The assignment will start 12 August, 2013 and should end by 31 October, 2013.
United Nations Children’s Fund
1440, Zimbabwe Ave
P. O. Box 4713
Maputo, Mozambique
Telephone +258 21 481 100
Facsimile +258 21 491 679
www.unicef.org/mozambique
8. Remuneration
The consultant will be paid as follows:
This will serve as the foundation for payment in three tranches:
Date
August 13, 2013
September 12 ,
2013
October 12, 2013
October 31, 2013
Deliverables expected
Work-plan and data gathering
1st month will be dedicated for data consolidation,
construction of risk and vulnerability index and database.
2nd month submission of spatial analytical report based on
the agreed risk and vulnerability index.
Final report including executive summary for publication. In
English and Portuguese.
TOTAL
Percentage to be paid
0
33.3%
33.3%
33.3%
100%
9. Qualifications and Specialized Knowledge
The consultant should meet the following minimum requirements:
 Master or equivalent level in the Social Sciences, Monitoring and Evaluation or other relevant field
area.
 Conversant in Portuguese and English (written and spoken).
 At least five years of relevant work experience.
 Capacity to work in team building environment, and to work with minimum supervision.
 Communication skills and abilities and written proficiency, including presentations with resource to
technology.
 Confident with the use of Windows and office package: Word, Excel, Access and PowerPoint.
 Strategic thinking capacities and capacity to stress ideas and recommendations clearly.
United Nations Children’s Fund
1440, Zimbabwe Ave
P. O. Box 4713
Maputo, Mozambique
Telephone +258 21 481 100
Facsimile +258 21 491 679
www.unicef.org/mozambique
10. Conditions of Work
The equipment and materials needed to carry out this activity will be supported by the assignment.
Condition of work
To be provided by UN Agencies
Yes
No
no
Field Trip Transport
International Travel
Visa for internationally recruited
DSA
no
no
no
Security Clearance
no
Accidental
Death
Dismemberment
and
Medical coverage
Health Insurance
Office Space
Computer
Secretarial Services
Photocopier services
Other supplies
and
Accident
no
no
Yes
no
no
no
no
Remarks
Please indicate location and #
of travels
Please indicate itinerary
Please indicate # days
covered
Not required at this stage if
not travelling out of Maputo
For Consultants traveling
outside their country of
residence
Responsibility of consultants
and individual consultants
Partial
Please specify type
11. How to apply
Applications from interested candidates must contain the following documentation:

a.
b.
c.
d.
TECHNICAL PROPOSAL
Curriculum Vitae;
Letter of Motivation, with sample of work;
Technical Proposal;
Copies of recommendation letters.
United Nations Children’s Fund
1440, Zimbabwe Ave
P. O. Box 4713
Maputo, Mozambique
Telephone +258 21 481 100
Facsimile +258 21 491 679
www.unicef.org/mozambique
 FINANCIAL PROPOSAL
The Financial Proposal shall be presented in Meticais or US$ and should include details of the inherent
costs of the consultancy as per point 8 above. Please notice that UNICEF accept no liability for any taxes,
duty or other contribution payable by the consultant on payments made under this contract. No
statement of earnings will be issued by the United Nations or UNICEF to the consultant.
SUBMISSION:
The proposal (Technical/Financial) shall be presented to the UNICEF Office to the following e-mail:
hrmaputo@unicef.org
Subject:
BID Reference 2013/HR/012
Child-centered risk and vulnerability assessment,
CLOSING DATE TO RECEIVE APPLICATIONS:
01 August 2013
UNICEF is committed to gender equality in its mandate and its staff.
Well qualified candidates, particularly females are strongly encouraged to apply.
Only shortlisted applicants will be acknowledged.
UNICEF IS A SMOKE FREE ENVIRONMENT
United Nations Children’s Fund
1440, Zimbabwe Ave
P. O. Box 4713
Maputo, Mozambique
Telephone +258 21 481 100
Facsimile +258 21 491 679
www.unicef.org/mozambique