AP Environmental Science: The Human Population
Name: ___________
Wright chapter 8
Where does this fit in the curriculum?
I. Population(10 -15%)
A. Population Biology Concepts
Chapter 4
Population ecology; carrying capacity; reproductive strategies; survivorship
B. Human population
Chapter 8 and 9
1. Human population dynamics
(Historical population sizes; distribution; fertility rates; growth rates and
doubling times; demographic transition; age-structure diagrams)
2. Population size
(Strategies for sustainability; case studies; national policies)
3. Impacts of population growth
(Hunger; disease; economic effects; resource use; habitat destruction, affect
on natural resources.)
Learning Objectives:
1.
2.
3.
4.
Humans and Population Ecology: Explain how humans, like other organisms, are subject to natural laws and
ecological processes. Describe some significant differences between humans and other creatures in their ability
to change their world.
Population and Consumption—Different Worlds: Explain the relationship between income and fertility in
countries around the world.
Consequences of Population Growth and Affluence: Describe the likely outcome of unlimited population
growth or unlimited use of natural resources. Explain ways in which both population growth and consumption
patterns must be addressed for stewardship of resources to occur.
Protecting Future Populations: Social scientists use a number of tools to understand populations and project
likely future outcomes, such as the demographic transition—a shift from high fertility and mortality to low
fertility and mortality.
Key Terms and Vocabulary:
Demography, demographers, population, Paleolithic, Neolithic Revolution, Industrial Revolution, pesticide
resistance, Environmental Revolution, developed countries, developing countries, total fertility rate, replacementlevel fertility, demographic transition, IPAT formula, ImPACT, ecological footprint, longevity, population profile,
age structure, graying, natural increase, population momentum, crude birthrate (CBR), crude death rate (CDR),
epidemiologic
A very useful resource
http://www.prb.org/Publications/Datasheets/2015/2015-world-population-data-sheet.aspx
AP Environmental Science: The Human Population
Humans and Population Ecology
Humans are a part of nature and subject to its laws, but upon closer inspection, the global human
population holds a special place in the biosphere. Changes in the relationship of humans to their
environment have cause major environmental revolutions throughout time.
See Figure 8-1 for Demographic terms.
Add:
Fecundity
Natality ratio of births to size of pop.
Mortality ratio of deaths to size of pop
Morbitiy frequency of disease occurring in a pop.
Survivorship prob of surviving to a particular age
Life expectancy average number of years infants can expect to live
Life span length of time for which an organism lives
Total growth rate growth of a pop, including immigration, emigration, births and deaths
Natural Growth rate difference in number of crude birth rated and crude death rates divided by midyear
pop and multiplied by one thousand.
Demography study of stats of populations.
http://rebirthofthecool.wordpress.com/2011/12/30/7-billion-people/
Table 8-1 Demographic terms: know these!!!
AP Environmental Science: The Human Population
Where are we now?
AP Environmental Science: The Human Population
A. Are Humans r- or K-Strategists?
—Although it seems that the global human population is growing on a J-curve, humans are Kstrategists; K-strategists typically remain near carrying capacity.
B. Revolutions—“In the past there have been several large-scale upheavals in the way humans do
things. These include the development of agriculture, the Industrial Revolution, modern medicine,
the green agricultural revolution, and the current environmental revolution.”
On the graph below mark the position of each “revolution”
1.
Neolithic Revolution—Once humans began to farm, they settled into permanent living areas,
domesticated animals, developed technology, began to store food, reduced mortality all of
(12,000 years ago): animal husbandry and agriculture produced abundant food
which lead to an increase in population. See Figure 8-2.
2.
Industrial Revolution—Birth of modern science in the 17th and 18th centuries. Technological
improvements made possible by the use of fossil fuels allowed humans to do work that was
never possible before. See Figure 8-3. This extra energy lets people produce more food
But also produced pollution and resource exploitation
3.
Medical Revolution—Before the 1800’s, mortality rate was high because of the prevalence of
diseases. The discovery of antibiotics, vaccinations, and improvements in sewage treatment
and nutrition reduced mortality and allowed for population expansion. See Figure 8-4.
Diseases (smallpox, diphtheria, measles, scarlet fever) hit infants and children hardest
Epidemics (e.g., the black plague) killed adults
AP Environmental Science: The Human Population
4.
5.
Humans had high reproductive rates
That were balanced with high mortality rates (e.g., diseases), resulting in a low population
growth rate
Scientists showed that many diseases were caused by infectious agents (bacteria, viruses,
parasites)
The Green Revolution—“The development of chemical pesticides in World War II, along
with an increase in irrigation and fertilizer use, dramatically increased crop yields." See
Figure 8-5.
Concerns over producing food for the larger population led to increased agricultural
efficiency
 Pesticides, irrigation, and fertilizer increased yields
 Countries could feed their growing populations
Industrialized agriculture has significant costs
 Erosion, soil and water pollution, loss of native plants
 Soil and water are used faster than they are replaced
 Pesticide resistance: target organisms are no longer affected by pesticides
Population growth is pressuring for more production
The Newest Revolution—New technologies like the Internet may lead to a real “green”
revolution, and environmental revolution. Technological breakthroughs have produced:
 The Internet, computers, nanotechnology, robotics, and solar and other technologies
The Environmental Revolution will come from:
 Efficient technologies, urban and regional planning
 Policy and industrial changes
 Personal decisions
Humans are part of the natural world, but they can produce drastic changes
 And natural laws still apply to people
C. Do Humans Have a Carrying Capacity?—“Throughout history, humans have improved their
survival rate, increased their populations, and increased their life span by doing some things other
organisms cannot do (or cannot do on the scale we can).” However, we have recently hit limits,
like a reduction in non-renewable resources that may finally be limiting to population growth. Best
estimates for human carrying capacity: 7.7 billion
We will have far more people than this!
1. Planetary Boundaries—“Scientists claimed that there are a series of limits, which act as
‘tipping points’ that, if passed, would keep humans from surviving.”
2. Picking up the Population Pace—Since 1830 the human populations has been growing to the
point of doubling in short periods of time.
AP Environmental Science: The Human Population
•
•
•
By 1830, there were 1 billion people
It took 100 years to reach 2 billion
It took 30 years (1930–1960) to go from 2 to 3 billion
It took 15 years (1960–1975) to go from 3 to 4 billion
It took 12 years (1999–2011) to go from 6 to 7 billion
The UN Population Division (UNPD) predicts:
By 2085, there will be 10 billion people
People in different countries live in radically different economic and demographic conditions
Within a country there can be huge disparities
Population and Consumption: Different Worlds
Different people, in different parts of the world, live greatly different lives and therefore have greatly
different types of impact on the environment. See Figure 8-6. Important
• Countries are put into economic categories
Based on average per capita gross national income
• 1 billion people in high-income, highly developed, industrialized countries earn an average of $39,000/yr
U.S., Canada, W. Europe, Taiwan, Israel
• 4 billion in middle-income, moderately developed countries earn $1,000–$12,000/yr
S. America, parts of Africa, China, some Arab states
• Low-income, developing countries ($1,000/yr)
0.8 billion in parts of Africa, India, S. Asia
•
These terms no longer used:
More developed countries (MDCs), less developed countries (LDCs), third-world countries
A. Rich Nations, Middle-Income Nations, Poor Nations—“The high income nations are commonly
referred to as developed countries, whereas the middle- and low-income countries are often
grouped together and referred to as developing countries. See Figure 8-7.
B. Moving up: Good News—In just a few years the percentage of countries in the world that have a
majority of the population living in poverty has reduced dramatically. See Figure 8-7.
AP Environmental Science: The Human Population
C. Population Growth in Rich and Poor Nations—“Total fertility rates have dropped all over the
world, but most dramatically in the high-income countries. In developing countries, fertility rates
have come down considerably.” See Figure 8-8 and Figure 8-9.
•
•
Population growth occurs when births > deaths
Total fertility rate (TFR): average number of kids each woman has over her lifetime
If TFR = 2.0: the population is stable
If TFR > 2.0: the population grows
If TFR < 2.0: the population shrinks
Replacement-level fertility: fertility rate that replaces the parent’s population
2.1 for U.S.
1.1 to 1.6 in ‘developed’ countries
A bit higher in ‘developing countries’ (child mortality) Up to 2.8 to 7
D. Different Populations, Different Problems—
IPAT =
What is the origin of the IPAT formula and what does it mean?
Ecologist John Ehrlich and physicist John Holdren proposed the formula to account for the human
factors which account for environmental deterioration and the depletion of resources. According to
the IPAT formula “environmental impact (I) equals population (P), multiplied by affluence (level
of consumption) and the level of technology of the society (technology refers to processes used to
obtain resources and transform them into useful goods and waste. (T).”
Effect of Wealth—comment! (Naomi Klein book – ‘ This changes everything’
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VthS0PDbiP8
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4b2B-ys3N1o a longer one hour presentation
Increasing the wealth of individual countries will not necessarily lead to the environmental sustainability of
that country. Wealth can help solve environmental problems
Technology can lower pollution, clean water, etc.
Environmental laws improve the environment
Technology helps people minimize degradation
But the relationship between economic wealth and environmental health is not so clear-cut
Some issues (disease) may improve, but others (waste) increase
Problems are pushed into other places (rich nations extract resources from poor nations)
2. Ecological Footprint—Having an area that is extremely dense in population still has an impact
on the earth and repercussions on the environment.
3. Inequalities Within Countries—What is the GINI index?
A measure that the world bank uses to quantify differences in wealth in different countries. Even
wealthy countries can have great disparity between the wealth of its individual citizens.
Sweden = 23
South Africa = 65
Burkina Faso = 39
Indonesia = 37
Yet on the human poverty index, Burkina Faso ranks highest and Sweden lowest.
1.
•
•
The U.S. (45) has huge disparities in income—the top 1% own 47% of the wealth, which has led
to social unrest
AP Environmental Science: The Human Population
4.
Comment on the stewardship of countries with stable populations.
I.
Consequences of Population Growth and Affluence
Both countries with rapid growth and countries with affluence have to deal with population issues.
Many of the ways that we deal expanding populations have environmental consequences.
A. Countries with Rapid Growth—When humans began to move from small and sustainable
populations to larger populations with the help of modern medicine, humans had several options
for how to deal with growth, all with environmental consequences.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
Land Ownership Reform—Group ownership of large plots of land (collectivization) and
ownership by the wealthy few have historically been two ways that land has been owned. Reorganization of ownership can sometimes increase agricultural output.
Intensifying Cultivation—“The introduction of more highly productive varieties of basic food
grains in the Green Revolution has had a dramatic beneficial effect in supporting the growing
populations.” Environmental impact includes “a deterioration of soil, decreased productivity,
and erosion.”
Opening Up New Lands—Opening up land for agriculture may mean conversion or
fragmentation of other environmentally important types of habitats.
Illicit Activities—“Anyone who doesn’t have a way to grow sufficient food must gain enough
income to buy it—and sometimes desperate people break the law to do this.”
Migration Between Countries—Migration (immigration) to countries with more money or
more available jobs may seem like a good idea but often can lead to prejudice and
exploitation.
Refugees—Civil strife can lead to migration from one poor country to another and can also
lead to exploitation.
Migration to Cities—“Faced with the poverty and hardship of the countryside, many hundreds
of millions of people in developing nations continue to migrate to cities in search of
employment and a better life.” See Figures 8-13 and 8-14.
Challenges to Governments—Basic services like education, housing, healthcare, and
transportation in cities with high populations are falling behind or not available.
B. Countries with Affluence—“High individual consumption places enormous demands on the
environment. The world’s wealthiest 20% of people are responsible for 86% of all private
consumption and 80% of world trade.”
II.
Projective Future Populations
Population projections for developing and developed countries vary greatly. Developing countries tend
to have a large base of young people and a small aged population whereas developed countries tend to
have a large population of aged individuals with a small base of the young.
AP Environmental Science: The Human Population
A. Population Profiles—“A population profile is a bar graph showing the number or proportion of
people at each age for a given population.” shows the number of people (males and females) at
each age for a population
Age structure: the number of people in each age group at a given date
Each bar represents one cohort (group of the same age) of the population
See page 206 Fig. 8-17 and below
AP Environmental Science: The Human Population
AP Environmental Science: The Human Population
B. Predicting Populations—“The United Nations gives three different projections of future world
populations. The medium scenario assumes that world fertility will drop from 2.55 children per
woman to slightly above 2 children per woman by 2050.” See Figure 8-15 and 8-16.
1.
Population Projections for Developed Countries—Italy can be used as an example of
population trends in a developed country. It is expected that the number of older people will
increase while the number of younger people will decline.
i. Graying of the population—Graying is a term that refers to the number of elderly people
in a population is increasing.
ii. Less Graying Here—The United States is graying, but has a more stable younger
population than other developed countries because of total fertility rate and high
immigration.
2.
Population Projections for Developing Countries—“Fertility rates in developing countries are
generally declining, but they are still well above replacement level.” See Figures 8-19 and 820.
i. Burkina Faso and Indonesia—With a total fertility rate of 6.3, the population profile for
Burkina Faso will be a pyramid with a wide base of young people for the foreseeable
future. Indonesia's growth rate is slower and will stabilize more quickly, but with a large
population to begin with it still has population problems. See Figure 8-21.
ii. Growth Impacts—To maintain standards of living, countries that are growing quickly,
like Burkina Faso, will have to double their resources for the population in the next two
decades which is unlikely to happen.
C. Population Momentum—“Refers to the effect of current age structure on future populations.” See
Figure 8-20.
D. The Demographic Transition—“As economic development occurs, human societies move from
a primitive population stability to a modern population stability, in which low infant and
childhood mortality are balanced by low birthrates.” See Figure 8-22.
1.
Birth and Death Rates—The crude birthrate (CBR) and the crude death rate (CDR) “are the
number of births and deaths, respectively, per thousand of the population per year. A zerogrowth population is achieved if, and only if, the CBR and CDR are equal and there is no net
migration.”
i. Epidemiologic Transition—A shift from death due to epidemics and other social
conditions to deaths from cancer, cardiovascular, and other degenerative diseases
accounts for a change in mortality factors.
ii. Fertility Transition—“In the now-developed countries, birthrates have declined from a
high of 40 to 50 per thousand to 9 to 12 per thousand.”
AP Environmental Science: The Human Population
2.
Phases of the Demographic Transition—There are four stages of demographic transition.
A demographic transition occurs as a country develops and population growth stabilizes.
Reaching stage four is critical for a country to become stable over time. “Developed countries
have generally completed the demographic transition. Developing countries, by contrast are
still in Phases II and III.” See Figure 8-23.
Describe the stages:
AP Environmental Science: The Human Population
Review Questions: Possible Answers
1.
In what ways is human population ecology similar to and different from that of other organisms? Why is it
difficult to determine a carrying capacity for humans?
Humans are part of the natural world, and human populations are subject to processes such as birth and
death.” Even though the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment recognizes humans as an ‘integral part of
ecosystems,’ there are some differences between humans and other organisms that make our role in ecosystems
different from that of others. One major reason humans are different from other populations is that we have a
global population which acts like a whole unit. We are also unique in our ability to control our reproduction,
“use fire, store food for longer times, and adapt our environment with technology so we can live in more
places.” It is difficult to determine a carrying capacity for humans because we have the ability to increase our
AP Environmental Science: The Human Population
carrying capacity in the short term with technological advances. It is also difficult to determine at what standard
of living to judge carrying capacity since there are so many lifestyle levels throughout the global population.
2.
How has the global human population changed from pre-historic times to 1800? From 1800 to the present?
What is projected over the next 50 years?
“From the dawn of human history until the beginning of the 1800s, population increased slowly and
variably, with periodic setbacks. It was roughly 1830 before world population reached the 1 billion mark. By
1930, however, just 100 years later, the population had doubled to 2 billion. Barely 30 years later, in 1960, it
reached 3 billion, and in only 15 more years, by 1975, it had climbed to 4 billion. Thus, the population doubled
in just 45 years, from 1930 to 1975. Then 12 years later, in 1987, it crossed the 5 billion mark! In 1999, world
population passed 6 billion, and it is currently growing at the rate of nearly 77 million people per year.”
“On the basis of current trends (which assumes a continued decline in fertility rates), the U.N. Population
Division (UNPD) medium projection predicts that world population will pass the 7 billion mark in 2012, the 8
billion mark in 2024, and the 9 billion mark in 2047, and will reach 9.1 billion in 2050. At that point, world
population will still be increasing by 34 million per year.”
3
How does the World Bank classify countries in terms of economic categories?
“1. High-income, highly developed, industrialized countries. This group (1.056 billion in 2007) includes
the United States, Canada, Japan, Korea, Australia, New Zealand, the countries of western Europe and
Scandinavia, Singapore, Taiwan, Israel, and several Arab states (2007gross national income per capita, $11,456
and above; average of $37,566). Anje in Sweden is in this group.
2. Middle-income, moderately developed countries. This group (4.26 billion) includes mainly the
countries of Latin America (Mexico, Central America, and South America), northern and southern Africa,
China, Indonesia and other southeastern Asian countries, many Arab states, eastern Europe, and countries of the
former U.S.S.R. It is further divided by the World Bank in to lower middle income and upper middle-income
countries. (2007 gross national income per capita, $936 – $3,705 for the former category, $3,706–$11,455; for
the latter). Indonesia, home to Atin and her family, is in the lower middle income group.
3. Low-income, developing countries. This group (1.296 billion) comprises the countries of eastern,
western, and central Africa, India and other countries of southern Asia, and a few former Soviet republics.
(2007 gross national income per capita, less than $936; average of $578). Awa and her family in Burkina Faso
are members of this group.”
4.
What three factors are multiplied to give total environmental impact? Are developed nations exempt from
environmental impact? Why or why not?
The three factors are population, affluence, and technology. Developed nations are not exempt from
environmental impact because these countries have tremendous affluence and therefore a substantial
consumption level. Stewardship is a modifier; “attention to wildlife conservation, pollution control, energy
conservation and efficiency, and recycling may offset, to some extent, the negative impact of a consumer
lifestyle.”
5.
What are the environmental and social consequences of rapid population growth in rural developing countries?
In urban areas?
There are six impacts from rapid growth on the populations of rural developing countries:
(1) overcultivation, soil erosion, and depletion of fertility; (2) overfishing and depletion of marine stocks;
(3) poaching of wildlife, drugs, corruption, and other illegal activities; (4) moving to cities, squalor, and disease;
(5) migration and immigration pressures on developed countries; and (6) bringing new land into production
through deforestation, draining wetlands, and irrigation. In urban areas, environmental and social impact
include: overpopulation in small spaces, conversion and fragmentation of natural ecosystems, concentration of
municipal solid waste and human waste, and concentration of pollution.
6
Describe negative and positive impacts of affluence (high individual consumption) on the environment.
“The United States has the dubious distinction of leading the world in the consumption of many resources.
We are a large country and we are affluent. We consume the largest share of 11 of 20 major commodities:
aluminum, coffee, copper, corn, lead, oil, oilseeds, natural gas, rubber, tin, and zinc. We lead in per capita
AP Environmental Science: The Human Population
consumption of many other items, such as meat. The average American eats more than three times the global
average of meat. We lead the world in paper consumption, too, at 725 pounds per person per year. All of the
factors (and many more like them) contribute to the unusually high environmental impact each of us makes on
the world.” We “lead the world in production of many pollutants. For example, by using such large quantities of
fossil fuel (coal, oil, and natural gas) to drive our cars, heat and cool our homes, and generate electricity, the
United States is responsible for a large share of the carbon dioxide produced. As mentioned, with about 5% of
the world’s population, the United States generates 24% of the emissions of carbon dioxide that may be
changing global climate. Similarly, emissions of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) that have degraded the ozone
layer, emissions of chemicals that cause acid rain, emissions of hazardous chemicals, and the production of
nuclear wastes are all largely the by-products of affluent societies. Consumption, often driven by advertising,
places enormous demands on the environment and the developing world. The world’s wealthiest 20% is
responsible for 86% of all private consumption and 80% of world trade. As a consequence, 11 of 15 major
world fishers are either fully exploited or overexploited, and old-growth forests in southern South America are
being clear-cut and turned into chips to make fax paper.”
Despite the adverse effects of affluence, increasing the average wealth of a population can affect the
environment positively. An affluent country such as ours provides such amenities as safe drinking water,
sanitary sewage systems and sewage treatment, and the collection and disposal of refuse. Thus, many forms of
pollution are held in check, and the environment improves with increasing affluence. In addition, if we can
afford gas and electricity, we are not destroying our parks and woodlands for firewood. In short, we can afford
conservation and management, better agricultural practices, and pollution control, thereby improving our
environment.
7.
What information is given by a population profile?
“A population profile is a bar graph showing the number of proportion of people (males and females
separately) at each age for a given population.”
8.
How do the population profiles and fertility rates of developed countries differ from those of developing
countries?
The population profile for a developed country tends to be fairly columnar. The number of individuals in
any particular age group is neither smaller nor larger than the number of individuals in any other age group. In
some developed countries the number of individuals in the younger age groups is less than the number of
individuals in the older age groups. The fertility rate is low, either below or at replacement
The population profile for a developing country tends to be pyramidal. The number of individuals in the
youngest age groups exceeds, by a large margin, the number of individuals in the oldest age groups. This is
partly due to the low life expectancy in the developing countries (fewer people survive to old age, 65+) and
partly due to the large number of children born per women. The fertility rate is at or above replacement. Some
developing countries have very high fertility rates (but the rates are lower than they were).
9.
Compare future population projections, and their possible consequences, for developed and developing
countries.
Developed countries are expected to see a population profile with increasing numbers of older individuals.
The profile will look something like an inverted pyramid. Developing countries will become more columnar
with increasingly the same number of individuals in each age group.
10. Discuss immigration issues pertaining to developed and developing countries. Which countries are sending the
most immigrants and which are receiving the most?
When people emigrate from less affluent countries (developing) to more affluent countries (developed)
they adopt the lifestyle of their new home. This increases the environmental impact per person. Many people
who immigrate to developed countries are the most educated individuals from the developing countries. This
can be beneficial to the developed country but detrimental to the developing country.
11. What is meant by population momentum and what is its cause?
Population momentum is when a country’s population continues to grow “even after the total fertility rate
is reduced to the replacement level.” “Population momentum occurs because such a small portion of the
population is in the upper age groups (where most death occurs) and many children are entering their
AP Environmental Science: The Human Population
reproductive years. Even if these . . . (individuals) have only two children per woman, the number of births will
far exceed the number of deaths.”
12. Define crude birthrate (CBR) and crude death rate (CDR). Describe how these rates are used to calculate the
percent rate of growth and the doubling time of a population.
“The crude birthrate (CBR) and crude death rate (CDR) are the number of births and deaths, respectively,
per thousand of the population per year.” To obtain the percent rate of growth one subtracts the number of
deaths from the number of births and then divides by 10 to give the percent increase or decrease in population
per year. To obtain the doubling time the percent rate of growth is divided by 70.
13. What is meant by the demographic transition? Relate the epidemiologic transition and fertility transition (two
elements of demographic transition) to its four phases.
“The basic premise of the demographic transition is that there is a causal link between modernization and a
decline in birth and death rates.” There are four phases of the demographic transition, as seen in the developed
world. Phase I is a stable population size due to high death rates and high birthrates. In Phase II, the crude death
rate drops but crude birthrates remain unchanged, resulting in increased population size. When a drop in crude
birthrates begins, due to a drop in fertility rate, Phase III of the demographic transition has been reached. The
population size is still increasing in Phase III. Phase IV occurs when the number of births equals the number of
deaths and there is no growth in population size. The epidemiologic transition is the change in mortality factors
from epidemics (acute illnesses) to chronic conditions (cancer and cardiovascular disease). The fertility
transition is the decline in birthrates from “a high of 40 to 50 per thousand to 8 to 12 per thousand.” The fertility
transition does not happen at the same time that the epidemiologic transition occurs; the fertility transition is
delayed, as compared to the epidemiologic transition, by decades or more. This has resulted in the very large
increase in human populations. The epidemiologic transition begins in Phase II, while the fertility transition
begins during Phase III of the demographic transition.
14. What are examples of countries in different stages of demographic transition?
See Figure 8-23 for an explanation of the demographic transition with examples of countries currently
going through each phase (Afghanistan, Uganda, Zambia, Ghana, Guatemala, Iraq, India, Gabon, Malaysia,
Brazil, Germany, and Japan).
Thinking Environmentally: Possible Answers
1.
Consider how humans are different from and similar to other species. In what ways does it seem obvious that
population ecology principles apply to humans? Why do some people see humans as not subject to the law of
limiting factors?
Humans are similar to other species in that we are subject to the laws of the natural world. We are living
creatures that are dependent on the earth’s resources to survive. Because of this, ecological principles apply to
humans and are difficult to escape. However, because of our unique cognition, humans are able to engineer their
circumstances to some degree. While we may be able to extend the limits of ecological principles, we are still
subject to them.
2.
List the parameters you think you would need to keep track of to make accurate predictions about future human
population growth. For example, what conditions might drive mortality and fertility trends?
Parameters necessary for projection future human population growth include birth rates, death rates,
fertility rate, expected immigration rates. Some conditions that might drive mortality and fertility trends include
projected disease trends, economic environment, and recent trends in fertility rate.
3.
Consider the population situation in Italy or Japan: very low birthrates, an aging population, and an eventual
decline in overall numbers. What policies would you recommend to these countries, assuming their desire to
achieve a sustainable society?
AP Environmental Science: The Human Population
Policies for caring for the elderly will be important to such countries. Also, although world population rates
are high, each country will need to have a younger base of individuals for society to function properly.
Immigration can be encouraged to a certain extent but will not be the entire answer and negative attitudes
towards immigrants will need to be carefully balanced with policy and communication. This is a difficult
situation and will need to be addressed carefully and with great wisdom.
4.
Consider the populations of Sweden, Indonesia, and Burkina Faso. How could people in each of these countries
help those in other countries to steward their resources better or to promote a sustainable future?
Individuals in Sweden have reached a level of development where the average citizen has a high standard
of living, an education, and choices about their future. They could teach others about how to achieve education
for everyone, including women, and how to delay reproduction as a result. The people in Indonesia could teach
others about the importance of the network of family and friends for survival. Sharing resources is something
that those in developed countries have lost as a result of our independent spirits. Shared resources can be more
sustainable than independent resources. In addition to understanding the need for family and friends for
survival, those in Burkina Faso are closer to the environment than any of the others and can teach others about
the natural cycles of ecosystems and how to live within their means as the environment changes.
AP Environmental Science: The Human Population