Name
Sennan Mattar
Programme, Year
MPhil/PhD, 1st Year
Project Title
An investigation into socio-environmental challenges and proliferation of informal settlements in
Zambia from a climate justice perceptive.
Background to the project
It has been well-documented the threat to food security and access to water posed by climate
change in Sub-Saharan Africa (Thompson et al, 2010; Ludwig et al, 2009), specifically the increased
risk of persistent drought caused by reduction in overall precipitation (Barrios et al, 2006) and the
disproportionate impact these changes have on the poor (Dahou et al, 2010). However, the majority
of literature and policy responses have focused on adaptive measures in rural poor populations
whilst limited research has explored adaptive measures for urban poor (Satterthwaite et al, 2007;
Crush and Frayne, 2010).
This discrepancy in research does not reflect the upward trend in urbanisation that has been
observed globally, but more relevant to this study, rapid urbanisation in Sub-Saharan Africa has
already increased the total population living in urban areas from 27% in 1990 to 37% by 2014 and
further growth is predicted to continue with 55% living in urban areas by 2050 (UN, 20141). The
results of this rapid urbanisation are that local governments in the developing world have been
unable to accommodate urban poor with the necessary infrastructure (WHO, 2010; WHO, 2005). In
the case of Sub-Saharan Africa, this translates into 62% of the urban population living in informal
settlements/slums in 2012 (UN, 20142).
Zambia is especially relevant for a study of informal settlements/slums due to having one of the
highest fertility rates in Africa (6.2 children per woman) and being the most urbanised county in SubSaharan Africa (excluding South Africa), with 35-40% of population living in urban areas (Ministry of
Finance and National Planning, 2010; UN, 2015).
What is the project researching?
This project aims to examine what extend the growth and challenges of informal settlements/slums
in Zambia can be considered a consequence of climate change. A particular focus is the implications
climate change has on rural-urban migration to these areas, given emerging research suggests a link
between deteriorating rural conditions and migration to urban areas (Barrios et al, 2006; Girardet,
2008; Gebeyehu, 2014).
United Nations Human Settlements Programme (UN-Habitat) 2015 explicitly highlights there is a gap
in our knowledge concerning the daily challenges faced by inhabitants of informal settlements,
including reasons for their proliferation, limiting the ability to form effective solutions and realize
vulnerable communities’ human rights. As such, this project intends to establish an in-depth
understanding of the causes and challenges of informal settlements in Zambia by employing
qualitative methodologies, e.g. semi-structured interviews, questionnaires, case studies, focus group
discussions.
With the focus on implications of climate change in rural areas, this translates into three key
objectives:
•
Determine the scale of growth of informal urban settlements
•
Explore the determinants for rural-urban migration
•
Analyse possible adaptive and empowerment measures
What are the findings so far?
At this stage, I have found literature specifically on the informal settlements of Zambia (and much of
the developing world) is limited, as identified by UN-Habitat, but there is adequate research on
urbanization patterns to justify this project’s research objectives. This justification comes in the form
of disrupting literature and limited on-the-ground research, with many desk studies but few and
recent investigations. One example is given below, illustrating difficulties with desk studies in
reaching similar conclusions across multiple disciplines:
There is a general assumption that urbanisation and economic development closely act in positive
correlation (World Bank, 1999). In the case of Sub-Saharan Africa, Fay and Opal (1999) argue this
assumption has not been observed, urban areas have continued to grow despite lack of economic
growth and this could be largely explained by rural-urban wage differentials (and subsequent
movement of people to higher wages). Barrios et al (2006) would agree movement of people from
rural to urban areas has accounted for continuing urbanisation in Sub-Saharan Africa, but cites
storages in rainfall affecting rural agriculture and livelihoods as more significant push factors than
urban bias. While Kessides (2005) argues internal migration is not the main source of urban growth,
the case of Sub-Saharan Africa is not vastly different to other regions and cites institutional failure
rather than economic factors for the current situation of urban poor.
While all papers acknowledged the situation of urban poor, the key determinants perpetuating
urban poverty in Sub-Saharan are under dispute and dependent on interpretation of
macroeconomic/climatic/population data. An investigation which sources data directly from urban
poor in informal settlements/slums can shed light on key determinants most significant to these
people, hence the current direction of this project.
References
 Barrios S., Bertinelli L, Strobl E. (2006) Climatic change and rural-urban migration: the case of
sub-Saharan Africa. Journal of Urban Economics; Volume 60, Issue 3, Pages 357-371.
 Thompson H.E., Berrang-Ford L.,Ford J.D. (2010) Climate change and food security in SubSaharan Africa: a systematic literature review. Sustainability; Volume 2, Issue 8, Pages 271933.
 Ludwig F., Kabat P., Hagemann S., Dorlandt M., Planck M. (2009) Impacts of climate
variability and change on development and water security in Sub-Saharan Africa. Earth and
Environmental Science; Volume 6, Issue 29, Page 292002.
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UN-Data (2015) Zambia. Available from:
http://data.un.org/CountryProfile.aspx?crName=ZAMBIA Accessed: 20/10/15.
Ministry of finance and National Planning (2010) Zambia: Population and National
Development. Available from:
www.healthpolicyinitiative.com/Publications/Documents/1179_1_Zambia___Poplution_and
_National_Development_2010_Marc.pdf Accessed: 20/10/15
WHO (2010) Hidden Cities: Unmasking and overcoming health inequities in urban settings.
Available from:
www.who.int/kobe_centre/publications/hiddencities_media/who_un_habitat_hidden_cities
_web.pdf?ua=1 Accessed: 22/10/15
WHO (2005) A billion voices: Listening and responding to the health needs of slum dwellers
and informal settlers in new urban settings. Available from:
http://www.who.int/social_determinants/resources/urban_settings.pdf Accessed: 22/10/15
Girardet H. (2008) Cities, People, Planet. John Wiley & Sons Ltd, Chichester; 2nd Edition,
Pages 64, 97-103.
Gebeyehu Z.H. (2014) Rural-Urban migration and land and rural development policies in
Ethiopia. Conference Paper; 2014 World Bank Conference on Land and Poverty, The World
Bank – Washnigton DC, March 24-7, 2014.
Dahou K., Kibuka-Musoke D., Ngo B., Pavarini F. (2012) Climate challenges to Africa, a call for
action. OECD Journal; Volume 2010, Issue 4.
Satterthwaite D., Huq S., Pelling M. (2007) Adapting to Climate Change in Urban Areas - The
possibilities and constraints in low- and middle-income nations. Working Paper; Human
Settlements Discussion Paper Series, Theme: Climate Change and Cities - 1.
Crush J., Frayne B. (2010) The invisible crisis: urban food security in southern Africa.
Available from: www.afsun.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/AFSUN_1.pdf Accessed:
22/10/15
UN (2014)1 World Urbanization Prospects. Available from:
www.esa.un.org/unpd/wup/highlights/wup2014-highlights.pdf Accessed: 2/12/15
UN (2014)2 The Millennium Development Goals Report. Available from:
http://www.un.org/millenniumgoals/pdf/MDGReport2014_PR_SubSaharanAfrica_English.p
df Accessed: 2/12/15
World Bank (1999) World Development Report 1999/2000: Entering the 21st Century. New
York: Oxford University Press.
Kay M., Opal C. (1999) Urbanization without Growth: A Not-So-Uncommon Phenomenon.
World Bank Publications; Volume 2412.
Kessides C. (2005) The Urban Transition in Sub-Saharan Africa: Implications for Economic
Growth and Poverty Reduction. Available from: www.worldbank.org/afr/wps/wp97.pdf
Accessed: 2/12/15