Serbian R.,BH
RHMS
Нада Рудан
N.Rudan@RHMZRS.com
Assessment of the seasonal forecast for the winter season DJF
2013-14
1. MedCOF-1 Climate outlook for the 2013-14 winter season:
As a part of the area one, for the 2013-14 temperature outlook, for Serbian Republic the
forecasting consensus is given as 'no clear signal' (33, 34, 33 of probabilities in percentage),
regarding to the tercile categories and the 1981-2010 climate normal. The same qualifier is
given for the 2013-14 Precipitation predicting (area three of the map for the Mediterrane
region).
2. Analysis of the 2013-14 winter season:
The experiensed weather was very warm (south) or extremely warm (north and central) and very dry.
The temperature conditions was similar to the 2006-2007 winter season. That was the 16th driest
december-february period from 1881 up to now, 6th from 1981on wards.
Some statistics of those waether events, presented graphicaly, regarding to mean temperature
and precipitation, are given in figures 1 to 4.
Figure 1: DJF 2013\2014, Tmean anomaly over the area of Srpska
According to the 1981-2010 climatology, December was the driest month on record, by 1881
up to now. Deficit of precipitation ranged from 99,6% in Banja Luka to 78,1 in Rudo. January
recorded positive trend of precipitation of 90% in the South and negative trend in the rest of
Srpska up to 40%. In average over all territory, February was drier from average value for
5.2% whilest north-west recorded more rain with the next trend value: Prijedor +0.95; Drinic
0.83; Zvornik -0.65; Visegrad -0.89; Banja L.: 0.24).
Figure 2: The DJF winter season precipitation in Banja Luka, Srpska 1881-2014.
Figure 4: The DJF 2014 Temperature, daily mean (oC) compared to Tmean ± 1-3 standard deviations for
Banja L.,Srpska
Figure 3: 24h Precipitations, DJF '014 for 25 stations of Serbian Republic, Bosnia and Herzegovina, according
to tercile and 1981-210 climatology
The highest daily maximum temperature of 23.9 oC (February, 17th ) is registered in Visegrad,
the lowest one of -17.9 oC (January 27th) in Drinic.
It had been the warmest weather in Trebinje (8.6oC) , the coldest in Čemerno (1.3 oC),
according to daily mean temperature1for the DJF winter time.
3. High impact events:
Excepting a few heat wawes and extremely hot weather that hadn't dangerous impact,
there was no other high impact events.
4. Verification of the MedCOF-1 climate outlook for the 2013-14 winter season
Country
Srpska, BH
Seasonal temperature (DJF)
Observed
MedCOF-1
climate outlook
for
temperature
Seasonal precipitation (DJF)
Observed
MedCOF-1
climate outlook
for
precipitation
above upper
tercile
below lower
tercile
~
+4 oC
hotter than
1981-010 mean)
no clear signal
no clear signal
~ 34.5% drier
according to
1981-010 normal
value)
There had been extremely warm in the Southern or very warm in the Northern and Central
parts of Srpska, regarding to the percentile categories of the air mean temperature - around +4
1
(t07+t14+2*t21)/4
degrees hotter than 1981-2010 climatology. Normal value of precipitation for the last season is
around 290l/m2\DJF, the occured one 190 l/m2\DJF what means the deficit of around 35%.
The assessment of seasonal prediction, regarding to measurements, is that the forecast was not
correct.