Annex
Country: CYPRUS
Institute: Cyprus Department of Meteorology
Name: Dr Kleanthis Nicolaides
E-mail: kleanthi@spidernet.com.cy and knicolaides@dom.moa.gov.cy
Assessment of the seasonal forecast for the winter season
DJF 2013-14
1. MedCOF-1 Climate outlook for the 2013-14 winter season:
This part should include the consensus statement of the MEDCOF-1 for the seasonal climate
outlook for the 2013-14 winter season specified for your country in a short text.
Variables to be analyzed are Air Temperature and Precipitation.
Cyprus is situated in the area of the East Mediterranean. According to the consensus statement
of November 2013, Cyprus as part of area 3, was expected to be, regarding temperature, 25%
below climatic normal, 35% at the climatic normal and 40% above climatic normal.
Regarding accumulated precipitation, and again as resulting from the consensus statement of
November 2013, Cyprus would have equal percentages for below, equal to or above normal
accumulated precipitation.
In all the following analysis Climatic Normal has to be considered the 1981 to 2010
mean, as discussed and decided in MEDCOF/SEECOF meeting during past November
in Belgrade.
2. Analysis of the 2013-14 winter season:
This part should give an overview of the 2013-14 winter season over your country.
Variables to be assessed are Air Temperature and Precipitation.
This overview should include climate information in terms of means and anomalies for each
month and the whole season. Especially the following information is welcome:

Temperature anomalies (deviations from the climate mean), averaged over the whole
country and eventually for specific regions of your country.

Precipitation as percentage of the climate mean, averaged over the whole country and
eventually for specific regions of your country.

Terciles or percentiles of both quantities (if available).
Please indicate the reference period used. The preferred reference period is 1981-2010,
but others can be used as well if 1981-2010 averages are not available. For a good
illustration it is recommended to use graphics (maps, diagrams etc.) or tables, added by
short commenting texts.
General DJF overview
In general Cyprus experienced a relatively dry and warm winter. The mean average
accumulated precipitation was only 208.6 mm, ranking the past winter as the worst winter
recorded in the period 1901 to 2014. The past winter wasn’t only a dry winter but also a
relatively warm one, since the temperature was at average by 1 to 2 degrees above normal.
Find below analyses for December, January and February concerning temperature and
accumulated precipitation and the associated deviation from normal (1981-2010) for
selected stations for the area of Cyprus.
December
In details December is among the driest Decembers recorded with only 58mm of mean
average area precipitation. Both mean maximum and minimum temperature were just
below normal listing December in a relatively cold month, as presented from the
provisional data for December. Extreme weather resulted in extreme minimum
temperature over the mountains (Prodromos C.F.C). The accumulated precipitation was
low since all stations have recorded a negative deviation (deviations of -44% to -14%
were recorded) with an exception of Athalassa and Achna stations which have recorded an
up to normal accumulated precipitation.
It must be also mentioned that during the period from 10 to 13 December 2013, Cyprus
was affected by a cold depression, which has initiate a northeasterly very strong to near
gale and locally gale force wind associated with low temperature and snowfall, falling
from the height of 250m and above. The snowfall and the low temperature field resulted
in a sequence of a number of total frost days, in a lot of areas mainly over the mountains.
During December extreme lower than normal temperatures were recorded only during the
period the cold depression was affecting the area, while during the rest of the period the
temperatures recorded were either higher than normal or normal, generally resulting in a
rather cold month as presented in the table below.
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PROVISIONAL DATA FOR DECEMBER 2013
St. No.
Station Name
Highest
Mean Daily Normal Difference
Daily
Maximum
Value
from
Maximum
Temperatur (1981Normal
Temperatur
o
2010)
Value
e( C)
e (oC )
Lowest
Mean Daily Normal Difference
Daily
Minimum
Value
from
Minimum
Temperatur (1981Normal
Temperatur
o
2010)
Value
e( C)
e (oC )
18.0
9.3
Monthly
Normal Difference
Total
Value
from
Precipitation (1981Normal
(mm)
2010)
Value
41
POLIS CHRYSOCHOUS
49.7
93.6
-43.9
82*
PAFOS (AIRPORT)
18.8
18.9
-0.1
26.2
9.9
10.0
-0.1
4.5
64.5
90.1
-25.6
225
PRODROMOS (C.F.C.)
7.0
8.3
-1.3
20.4
2.1
2.6
-0.5
-7.8
143.5
157.3
-13.8
666*
ATHALASSA (RADIOSONDE)
16.0
17.3
-1.3
22.5
6.4
7.0
-0.6
0.1
54.4
57.2
-2.8
731
LARNAKA (AIRPORT)
17.5
18.6
-1.1
22.5
8.8
9.2
-0.4
2.4
46.4
79.0
-32.6
800**
ACHNA (DASAKI)
72.9
76.8
-3.9
18.0
8.3
* Pafos' and Athalassa's Station Normal Values cover the period 1983-2010
** Achna's Temperature Normal Values cover the period 1981-2007. December's 2013 Monthly Total Precipitation value is from Frenaros (Reservoir) station.
= Techni ca l Probl em
January
January is listed again among the 5 driest Januarys since 1901 with only 36.9mm mean
average area precipitation. Regarding temperature it must be noted that all stations have
recorded maximum and minimum temperature above normal by 1 to 3oC suggesting a
rather warm January.
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PROVISIONAL DATA FOR JANUARY 2014
St. No.
Station Name
Highest
Mean Daily Normal Difference
Daily
Maximum
Value
from
Maximum
Temperatur (1981Normal
Temperatur
o
2010)
Value
e( C)
e (oC )
Lowest
Mean Daily Normal Difference
Daily
Minimum
Value
from
Minimum
Temperatur (1981Normal
Temperatur
o
2010)
Value
e( C)
e (oC )
Monthly
Normal Difference
Total
Value
from
Precipitation (1981Normal
(mm)
2010)
Value
41
POLIS CHRYSOCHOUS
18.0
16.3
1.7
23.3
9.1
7.6
1.5
5.6
30.0
85.3
82*
PAFOS (AIRPORT)
19.0
17.1
1.9
21.2
10.7
8.3
2.4
7.1
80.0
78.8
-55.3
1.2
225
PRODROMOS (C.F.C.)
9.2
6.3
2.9
15.6
3.6
0.7
2.9
1.4
56.9
150.0
-93.1
666*
ATHALASSA (RADIOSONDE)
17.6
15.5
2.1
20.4
7.6
5.4
2.2
4.4
9.0
48.8
-39.8
731
LARNAKA (AIRPORT)
18.9
16.8
2.1
20.6
9.8
7.5
2.3
6.4
37.0
73.7
-36.7
800**
ACHNA (DASAKI)
18.0
16.3
1.7
20.0
7.7
6.6
1.1
5.1
15.6
67.3
-51.7
* Pafos' and Athalassa's Station Normal Values cover the period 1983-2010
** Achna's Temperature Normal Values cover the period 1981-2007
= VALUES FROM AUTOMATIC WEATHER STATION
February
February again is listed among the driest Februaries with only 41.5mm of mean average
area precipitation. The recorded precipitation in all stations was well below normal except
the station over the west part which recorded accumulated precipitation just above normal.
February was also a relatively warm month as compared with the normal since recorded
maximum and minimum temperature was ranging from normal up to 3oC at least.
On the 14th of February hail was reported over some mountainous stations.
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PROVISIONAL DATA FOR FEBRUARY 2014
St. No.
Station Name
Highest
Mean Daily Norma Differenc
Daily
Maximum l Value e from
Maximum
Temperatur (1981- Normal
Temperatur
2010)
Value
e (oC )
e (oC )
Lowest
Mean Daily Norma Differenc
Daily
Minimum l Value e from
Minimum
Temperatur (1981- Normal
Temperatur
2010)
Value
e (oC )
e (oC )
Monthly
Total
Precipitatio
n (mm)
Norma Differenc
l Value e from
(1981- Normal
2010)
Value
41
POLIS CHRYSOCHOUS
17.9
16.3
1.6
21.3
7.5
7.3
0.2
3.9
45.1
68.5
82*
PAFOS (AIRPORT)
18.9
17.1
1.8
23.4
9.4
8.1
1.3
5.5
61.9
59.8
-23.4
2.1
225
PRODROMOS (C.F.C.)
10.3
6.7
3.6
19.9
3.2
0.5
2.7
-2.1
57.2
128.7
-71.5
666*
ATHALASSA (RADIOSONDE)
18.9
16.0
2.9
23.4
6.8
5.3
1.5
2.4
22.0
44.5
-22.5
731
LARNAKA (AIRPORT)
18.7
17.0
1.7
21.9
8.7
7.1
1.6
3.9
34.0
50.3
-16.3
800**
ACHNA (DASAKI)
18.4
16.5
1.9
24.3
6.8
6.3
0.5
0.6
17.4
50.7
-33.3
* Pafos' and Athalassa's Station Normal Values cover the period 1983-2010
** Achna's Temperature Normal Values cover the period 1981-2007
= VALUES FROM AUTOMATIC WEATHER STATION
3. High Impacts Events:
This part should give a description of the climate extremes and the high-impact events that
occurred during the DJF 2013-14. The description should include:
 Type of event (drought, heavy precipitation, heat wave, cold wave, etc.)
 Start and end date of the event
 Short description of what has happened
 Kind of damage (e.g. in agriculture, traffic, power interruptions etc.)
 Economical damage (preferably in Euro or USD, or in your own currency)
 Number of people killed or injured by this event
In this context, only major events should be mentioned, which affected at least a region of
your country for several days of duration.
Cold Depression: 10 to 13 December 2013, Cyprus was affected by a cold depression, which
has initiate a northeasterly very strong to near gale and locally gale force wind associated with
low temperature and snowfall falling from the height of 250m and above. The snowfall and
the low temperature field resulted in a sequence of a number of total frost days in a lot of
areas mainly over the mountains.
Damages were listed in:
The agriculture sector of the economy,
Forestry (since a lot of old but also young trees of the north face of Troodos Range were
unplanted or fallen due to the wind),
Transportation (since a lot of roads were closed for a number of days due to the frozen
snow over the rods surface).
Loss of wages and school hours from a lot of people, having their homes on mountainous
areas.
Consumers used a significantly increased amount of fuel and electricity for heating premises
Luckily no casualties were reported
4. Verification of the MedCOF-1 climate outlook for the 2013-14 winter season:
The table below is a verification summary of the climate outlook for the DJF 2013-14.
A brief description of the observed and predicted seasonal temperature and precipitation
should be added (Normal, Above normal, Below normal, No clear signal, etc.).
The climatological reference period should be indicated.
Country
CYPRUS
Seasonal temperature (DJF)
Seasonal precipitation (DJF)
Observed
MedCOF-1
Observed
MedCOF-1
climate
climate
outlook
for
outlook
for
temperature
precipitation
Above Normal Above Normal Below Normal Normal or No
Clear Sign
5. Users’ perceptions of the MedCOF-1 outlook
Users’ perceptions of the MedCOF-1 should be detailed in this part. The following
information would be helpful:
 Which user groups have received your forecasts? (governmental authorities,
public services, private companies, general public)
The general Public, the Mass Media and the Public Sector
 From which sectors are the users (e.g. energy, water, tourism, insurances,
agriculture, health, …)
Water Management
 Have you received any feedback from the users (were they satisfied with the
forecasts, if not, why? Did they miss any important information?)
No