Vulnerability and status of marine fishes for the Australian State of Environment report 2011 – temperate species DECEMBER 2011 PRODUCED BY Craig Syms, University of Technology, Sydney FOR the Department of Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population and Communities ON BEHALF OF the State of the Environment 2011 Committee Citation Syms C. Vulnerability and status of marine fishes for the Australian State of the Environment report 2011—temperate species. Report prepared for the Australian Government Department of Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population and Communities on behalf of the State of the Environment 2011 Committee. Canberra: DSEWPaC, 2011. © Commonwealth of Australia 2011. This work is copyright. Apart from any use as permitted under the Copyright Act 1968, no part may be reproduced by any process without prior written permission from the Commonwealth. 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Cover image Shark Bay, WA Photo by Nick Rains Australia ■ State of the Environment 2011 Supplementary information i Preface This report was commissioned by the Department of Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population and Communities to help inform the Australia State of the Environment (SoE) 2011 report. As part of ensuring its scientific credibility, this report has been independently peer reviewed. The Minister for Environment is required, under the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act 1999, to table a report in Parliament every five years on the State of the Environment. The Australia State of the Environment (SoE) 2011 report is a substantive, hardcopy report compiled by an independent committee appointed by the Minister for Environment. The report is an assessment of the current condition of the Australian environment, the pressures on it and the drivers of those pressures. It details management initiatives in place to address environmental concerns and the effectiveness of those initiatives. The main purpose of SoE 2011 is to provide relevant and useful information on environmental issues to the public and decision-makers, in order to raise awareness and support more informed environmental management decisions that lead to more sustainable use and effective conservation of environmental assets. The 2011 SoE report, commissioned technical reports and other supplementary products are available online at www.environment.gov.au/soe. Australia ■ State of the Environment 2011 Supplementary information ii Vulnerability and status of marine fishes for the Australian State of the Environment report 2011 – temperate species Executive Summary This report examines the assessment of vulnerability and population status of Australian marine fishes using i) Fisheries model population growth parameters; ii) Intrinsic vulnerability based on ecological and life history generalizations; iii) The IUCN combination of intrinsic vulnerability with model parameters and temporal population variability. With careful application, the IUCN framework is considered to be the most robust contemporary approach for assessment of fish population health. The temporal changes in abundance of a key habitat type was examined to illustrate cautions about integrating and interpreting temporal changes Two key stressors are considered, following the key points highlighted in the SoE 2006: i) Climate change impacts; ii) Fishing pressure Vulnerability assessments were carried out for two temperate nearshore marine fishes An assessment of vulnerability was carried out for the red morwong, Cheilodactylus fuscus. This species, although locally abundant with high numbers of reproductive individuals, was classed as ‘Vulnerable’ because of its restricted spatial distribution and hence sensitivity to climate change effects, and its susceptibility to local recreational fishing. However, this species responded rapidly to closure to fishing. An assessment of vulnerability was carried out for the southern Maori wrasse Ophthalmolepis lineolata. This species is locally abundant, with high numbers of reproductive individuals, but its range extends longitudinally to Western Australia. Despite being landed in commercial numbers as bycatch, as well as landed locally by recreational fishers its vulnerability is considered to be low Australia ■ State of the Environment 2011 Supplementary information 1 Vulnerability and status of marine fishes for the Australian State of the Environment report 2011 – temperate species 1. Background 1.1 Australian State of the Environment Reporting – Marine Ecosystems and Fish population health Three Australian State of the Environment (SoE) reports have been prepared since 1996 as independent national stocktakes of the Australian environment. Marine and coastal environments have featured in each report, identifying key issues, pressures and responses to pressures. The 2006 report considered no new issues that had not already been raised in previous reports (Beeton et al. 2006 p49), and identified a continuing and pressing need to act to mitigate pressures that marine ecosystems face. The most significant pressures identified were urban development, agriculture, fishing, aquaculture, coastal and marine pollution and introduced marine species. In particular, fisheries decline and climate variation were identified as key points of interest. The Beeton et al. (2006) report concluded that there was no nationally consistent system for measuring conditions and trends of coast and ocean ecosystems; suggested planning for adaptation to climate change; suggested action on ship ballast water flushing; advised fisheries management should be improved; and generally lamented that the problems identified in 1996 were still as important in 2006. In this report we address issues in developing metrics of fish population health, and apply these concepts to two species of nearshore marine fishes. We consider the characteristics of the Australian marine environment; characteristics of marine fish population structure and dynamics; and identify the importance of two key pressures: fisheries extraction and management, and climate change. 1.2 The Australian marine environment The Australian marine environment is unique for a continental-sized maritime land mass. Both east and west coasts are strongly influenced by south (poleward flowing) warm tropical currents. The East Australia Current (EAC) originates in the Coral Sea and flows southwards where it separates northeast and eastwards at the subtropical convergence, and may generate eddies that provide episodic influxes of warm waters as far south as Tasmania. The extent of the mean EAC southern intrusion is consequently temporally variable, and in the presence of climate change the mean effect may alter (Ridgway 2007, Ridgway and Godfrey 1997, Ridgway and Dunn 2003). On the west coast, the Leeuwin current flows southward from the Indian Ocean, and intrudes into the Great Australian Bight as far as Tasmania. To the south, the continent is bounded by the cooler waters of the Southern Ocean exerting a cool water influence on the south coast. In general however, Australian Australia ■ State of the Environment 2011 Supplementary information 2 Vulnerability and status of marine fishes for the Australian State of the Environment report 2011 – temperate species waters are largely tropical and subtropical in origin and oligotrophic (nutrient poor) (Hobday et al. 2006). Australian marine ecosystems are strongly influenced by large scale oceanographic and atmospheric processes such as the El Nino Southern oscillation (ENSO), weather effects, terrestrial inputs from runoff, upwelling changes, cyclonic disturbance in the tropical regions, coastal current dynamics amongst other things. Due to its size, its latitudinal range from tropical to temperate regions, and longitudinal breadth, the Australian marine environment is far from homogenous. As a consequence, the Australian Government Department of Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population and Communities has developed a marine regionalisation program – the Integrated Marine and Coastal Regionalisation of Australia (IMCRA v. 4) to provide a spatial framework for natural resource management. Additionally, the Department of the Environment and Heritage has produced a National Marine Bioregionalisation of Australia. Figure 1. Marine bioregionalisation of demersal fish assemblages for continental shelf fishes (http://www.environment.gov.au/coasts/mbp/publications/general/pubs/aspd-bio-19.pdf, Commonwealth of Australia, Department of the Environment and Heritage, 2005) Australia ■ State of the Environment 2011 Supplementary information 3 Vulnerability and status of marine fishes for the Australian State of the Environment report 2011 – temperate species In addition to being a management tool, the marine regionalisations provide the framework for Australia's National Representative System of Marine Protected Areas (NRSMPA) by identifying ecologically meaningful breaks in species distributions that are important to consider when identifying the effects of different pressures on marine assemblages. 1.3 Climate change as a present threat to marine environments Beeton et al (2006) singled out climate change and fishing pressure as key threats in the 2006 SoE report. Climates have and will change in geological time with important consequences for marine ecosystems. Observable changes in sea surface temperature are evident from reconstructed temperature series, with all Australian regions changing at similar rates (Fig. 2a). It is important to note however that different regions still have very distinct temperature ranges, but as discussed below this may still have important consequences for Australian fish populations. All current model projections, including the latest CSIRO Mk3.5 model, indicate that climate warming will have strong effects on key oceanic processes, notably the greatest warming is likely to occur in the Tasman Sea, resulting in an increased strength of the East Australia current (Hobday et al. 2006, Ridgway 2007, Ridgway and Godfrey 2007). The vulnerability of marine life to these and other stressors will affect Australian bioregions to different extents. The most vulnerable region extends from the southern end of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) south, and west to Kangaroo Island in South Australia. All bioregions within the eastern-central and south-east domains are likely to be strongly affected by climate change (Hobday et al. 2006, Fig. 4-1). Sea surface temperature change itself can bring shifts in marine communities. While much focus has been placed on coral reef communities, and in particular impacts of bleaching due to elevated sea surface temperatures, temperate waters are also likely to be subject to important, if not greater, impacts. Latitudinal increases in temperature indicate that climate zones on the east coast of Australia have shifted southward by 200km (~2° latitude) from 1950-1969, to 1987-2006 (Lough 2008). This has effectively compressed the temperate zone and, as Australia is bounded by deep waters to the south, reduced the amount of available habitat for cooler water inshore and shelf species. Temperature alone is not the only proximate driver of change. Decreases in zonal westerly winds are likely to inhibit eastern Tasmanian upwelling, which in combination with strengthening of the oligotrophic tropical East Australian current will reduce nutrient supply to south-eastern Australian temperate communities. This will particularly impact kelp forest assemblages. The continued Australia ■ State of the Environment 2011 Supplementary information 4 Vulnerability and status of marine fishes for the Australian State of the Environment report 2011 – temperate species decrease in zonal westerly winds are also likely to contribute to fish stock decline by resulting in decreased fish recruitment, which in combination with high fishing pressure is likely to further stress fish populations in the south-east province (Hobday et al. 2006) b) Sea surface temperature 1.0 30 0.8 28 0.6 Northern tropics, Northwest region, and Coral Sea 26 0.4 Temperature (°C) Temperature anomaly (°C) a) Sea surface temperature anomaly 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 24 22 20 Tasman Sea and Southwest region 18 16 -0.8 Southern region -1.0 14 -1.2 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 12 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year Year Figure 2. a) Sea surface temperate anomaly; and b) Raw sea surface temperature for Australian Northern Tropics, Northwest Region, Coral Sea, Tasman Sea, and Southern Region (Data source: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/) 1.4 Fishing pressure Fishing pressure has the potential to strongly decrease fish population size. While compared with some other countries Australia has a relatively limited commercial fishery impact, the concentration of human populations along the coast may cause locally high demand for commercial fish, in addition to high concentrations of recreational fishers. Of the 101 stocks managed by the Australian Government and assessed in 2009, 12 were deemed to be overfished, for 30 stocks it was not clear if they were overfished and the remaining 58 stocks were assessed as not overfished. At the State level, in the 2008-2009 assessment by the New South Wales Government (for example) assessed 108 fished species, and listed 6 species as ‘Overfished’ or ‘Recruitment overfished’ (ie. fishing pressure is sufficient to significantly reduce the input of juveniles into the population). Five species were listed as ‘Growth overfished’, in which the fish biomass being removed was less than optimal for the fishery, and approximately 47 species were considered as ‘Fully fished or less’, in which fishing levels were < half the estimated natural mortality. Interestingly around 50% of the species listed were defined as ‘Uncertain’ or ‘Undefined’ (Rowling et al. 2010). The lack of knowledge Australia ■ State of the Environment 2011 Supplementary information 5 Vulnerability and status of marine fishes for the Australian State of the Environment report 2011 – temperate species of fishing levels of many species is of concern. While commercial landings are generally accounted for, there is a lack of information about recreational fish catch (with some exceptions e.g. Steffe et al. 1996, Stewart and Hughes 2008), which in some cases has been estimated to be higher than commercial catch for some species. 2. Establishing metrics and benchmarks to assess fish population health In the best of all possible situations, measuring fish population health requires knowledge of the population size, age, size-structure, reproductive output, recruitment, survivorship of recruits, sources of mortality, and how these measures vary across the spatial extent of the population, and vary over enough generations so that multidecadal environmental changes in these measures could be observed and modelled. 2.1 Population resilience The resilience or ability of a fish population to rebound from decreases in abundance is central to predicting whether a stressed population will persist in time, or be pushed to a stable minimal population level, or to extinction. Resilience has been generally considered in one of two ways, reflecting either a fisheries or ecological perspective. First, the theoretical capacity for a population to increase in size can be derived from classical models of population growth, which are used to estimate the maximum population growth rate. These are often expressed as population doubling time, a conceptual notion of the duration taken for a population at a very depressed size to double in size. Classical fisheries approaches are strongly dependent on good estimation of (key variables such as) age-specific growth rates and size at maturity, in combination with sound modelling of the population growth rates. In combination, this can provide a limited measure of resilience of a fish population to decreases in abundance, assuming the physical and population growth parameters remain constant (Musick 1999). These approaches are widely using in fisheries modelling, albeit with strong caveats regarding the precision of the model parameter estimates. Their wide use is assisted by the availability of generic parameter estimates in the literature and in Fishbase (www.fishbase.org). Fisheries-type approaches have a long history of setting clear measurable benchmarks or biological reference points. These reference points can be viewed either as targets (particularly for exploitation purposes) or thresholds beyond which the population could be considered threatened (often known as a limit reference point). In fisheries applications these thresholds are expressed either as target or limit levels of fishing mortality, or biomass levels - usually as a function of virgin or pre-exploitation Australia ■ State of the Environment 2011 Supplementary information 6 Vulnerability and status of marine fishes for the Australian State of the Environment report 2011 – temperate species biomass. Three kinds of analyses are typically used to establish these reference points: Yield per recruit, Stock-Recruitment, and Spawning stock biomass per recruit. While the terminology may indicate an exploitation intent, the principles are broadly applicable to establishing the viability of any population and can be phrased as “For a given population size with a certain spawning level, and survivorship – will the population persist, be severely affected, or go extinct?”. There is an unfortunate schism between fisheries and more classical ecologists in the way different disciplines approach the same question. The models behind these analyses have been established for several decades and both the models and their reference points are being continually refined (eg. Ricker 1954, Beverton and Holt 1957, Gulland and Boerema 1973, Hilborn and Walters 1992, Myers et al. 1994). A perception among many ecologists is that classical fisheries approaches have failed to conserve many fisheries, but this is in part due to model uncertainty – a failure of the models to fully represent the uncertainty that exists in the populations and ecosystems, and to effectively represent the effects of specific management decisions and the consequent risks to fished populations and their ecosystems. Successful fisheries analyses generally require long time series of fisheryindependent stock and ecosystem assessments; but the particular charge of fisheries scientists is to optimise extraction (ie. increase mortality) of the fish population. Population resilience can also be evaluated by examining time series of population numbers, and measuring time taken to return to some level following perturbation. While time series data are essential for deriving fisheries models (above), they have also been used (with some debate) to measure density-dependent processes (eg. Wolda 1989, Solow, 1990; Holyoak 1993; Wolda and Dennis 1993;). More recently, fish population time series have been used to measure declines in fish population sizes. However, developing a baseline population size that represents a pre-exploitation level is problematic. Observational judgements may be subject to a ‘sliding baseline’ syndrome (Pauly 1995) in which the population size at the beginning of observation is deemed to be the baseline which, in the face of true decline in a fishery becomes lower with each generation of fisheries biologist. Attempts to back-calculate what the population would have been in the absence of fisheries (Virtual Population Analysis), while subject to their own methodological limitations, are also stuck with the same problem that the strength and importance of density-dependent population regulation processes will differ between present day and ‘true’ pre-exploitation populations and communities. Equally, the ecosystems and population interactions that existed at the time of preexploitation may have changed markedly, because of the combination of natural system changes and the cumulative impacts of fishing on many other species. Australia ■ State of the Environment 2011 Supplementary information 7 Vulnerability and status of marine fishes for the Australian State of the Environment report 2011 – temperate species Notwithstanding the difficulties in interpretation of time series of population numbers, few fish population data sets are available. While many commercial species have long series of catch data, these cannot be readily viewed as unbiased estimates of populations through time as catch effort will change through time, and even if catch data are standardized for changes in effort, substantial biases may still occur (eg. serial depletion). Fisheries-independent time series are more reliable, but are not available for many Australian fish species. The most notable exception is the Long-Term Monitoring Project conducted by the Australian Institute of Marine Science on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) since 1986. Unfortunately, few fisheries-independent time series of fish abundance in Australian waters exist outside the GBR. 2.2 Intrinsic vulnerability In marine fishes, an important set of criteria are being increasingly applied to evaluate the intrinsic vulnerability of a fish population to extinction, where extinction may refer to extinction from a fishery or ecological extinction in which the species no longer fulfils an ecological function. This classification system has been developed from a range of sources (Jennings et al., 1998, 1999a,b; Reynolds et al., 2001; Cheung et al. 2005; Cheung et al. 2007) and is based on general relationships between life history and ecological traits, and how these contribute to increasing vulnerability of fishes to increased mortality. This mortality is assumed to be due to fishing, but could also result from other sources such as chronic changes to environmental conditions. The system is predicated on the correlation between key life history traits such as maximum rate of population growth (which is a measure of the maximum rate a population can respond to an acute reduction in size) and ecological characteristics Adams, 1980; Roff, 1984; Kirkwood et al., 1994; Dulvy et al., 2003). An example of an application of this framework was developed by Cheung et al. (2005). A range of life history and ecological characteristics (maximum body length, age at first maturity, von Bertalanffy growth parameter, natural mortality, maximum age geographic range, annual fecundity, and aggregation behaviour) were divided into overlapping (‘fuzzy’) groups of vulnerability classes (Fig.3), and a fuzzy clustering method applied to grade species on a vulnerability index of 0-100. Australia ■ State of the Environment 2011 Supplementary information 8 Vulnerability and status of marine fishes for the Australian State of the Environment report 2011 – temperate species Figure 3. Classification of intrinsic vulnerability of fishes based on life history and ecological characteristics from Cheung et al. 2005. (Reprinted from Biological Conservation, 124, Cheung, W. W. L., T. J. Pitcher, and D. Pauly, A fuzzy logic expert system to estimate intrinsic extinction vulnerabilities of marine fishes to fishing, 97-111, 2005, with permission from Elsevier). From a resource manager’s point of view, this intrinsic vulnerability classification scheme has the advantage that it provides a readily available numerical value. Indeed, this scheme is applied to species in the widely used Fishbase webpage (www.fishbase.org), and can provide at a glance vulnerabilities of individual species or, for example, species classed by habitat type (Fig. 4). Australia ■ State of the Environment 2011 Supplementary information 9 Vulnerability and status of marine fishes for the Australian State of the Environment report 2011 – temperate species Figure 4. Classification of intrinsic vulnerability of fishes based on IUCN Red List classification, and habitat type from Cheung et al. 2007. (Cheung, W. W. L., R. A. Watson, T. Morato, T. J. Pitcher, and D. Pauly. 2007. Intrinsic vulnerability in the global fish catch. Marine Ecology Progress Series 333:1-12. Reprinted with permission from Inter-Research Science Center) However there are some cautions that should be exercised when interpreting these values. First, the index itself might not be immediately intuitive and should not be interpreted as a probability of extinction. Consequently, a formal benchmark of what constitutes a ‘healthy’ fish population is not easy to define, however reference to the average Intrinsic vulnerability index of IUCN Red List species would suggest that an index value of 60% or greater would indicate significant cause for concern. Second, many of the variables included in the classification scheme may be approximations, derived from other proxies, or not well-estimated – especially the life-history based estimates such as von Bertalanffy growth parameters, mortality rate, and fecundity. While the ‘fuzzy-classification’ scheme might reduce some of these sensitivities, the application of the method detailed in Cheung et al. (2005) suggests that certain parameters may ‘trigger’ classifications in a conservative manner. However, in the absence of other information this is a scheme that is readily available and based on what most fish and fisheries ecologists would consider to be intuitive rules-of-thumb. Australia ■ State of the Environment 2011 Supplementary information 10 Vulnerability and status of marine fishes for the Australian State of the Environment report 2011 – temperate species 2.3 The IUCN Red List The IUCN have produced probably the most comprehensive set of guidelines for evaluating fish population health and extinction, culminating in the Red List of levels of threats to species (IUCN 2001, 2010, 2011). This measure combines intrinsic vulnerability based on life history characteristics, range size and population fragmentation with past, present, and projected temporal changes, and modelling approaches such as Population Viability Analyses. In broad terms the criteria are: a) Declining population (past, present and/or projected); b) Geographic range size, and fragmentation, decline or fluctuations; c) Small population size and fragmentation, decline, or fluctuations; d) Very small population or very restricted distribution; e) Quantitative analysis of extinction risk (e.g., Population Viability Analysis). An important component of this framework is that it combines the intrinsic vulnerability of Cheung and others, with model-based estimates of potential for populations to recover or fail to recover from population decrease. It also includes temporal change in abundance as an explicit criterion. The inclusion of temporal change in abundance as a measure of population health is important. Generally (with the exception of extreme decreases in abundance) the population decline criteria are based on the longer of 10 years or 3 generations. However, for many marine fishes which may be long lived, and/or first mature at greater ages, 10 years is likely to be too short to evaluate changes in numbers and, in combination with the time scales of environmental fluctuations, population changes could be potentially either under or overestimated (with unknown uncertainty) using this specific form of the criteria. The overall classification scheme however is balanced by several caveats and conditions, presented in summary form (from the original document) in Table 1. Full guidelines can be found in the full IUCN (2010) 85 page document. At present, careful application of the IUCN criteria would be a preferred approach to a broad evaluation of fish population health, with appropriate adjustments to account for species-specific features that fall outside the generic IUCN model. Australia ■ State of the Environment 2011 Supplementary information 11 Vulnerability and status of marine fishes for the Australian State of the Environment report 2011 – temperate species Table 1. The five criteria used by the IUCN red list to evaluate species vulnerability. Note the (abbreviated) conditions imposed on each criterion. Table 2.1 from: IUCN. 2010. Guidelines for using the IUCN Red List Categories and Criteria. Version 8.1. Prepared by the Standards and Petitions Subcommittee in March 2010. (http://intranet.iucn.org/webfiles/doc/SSC/RedList/RedListGuidelines.pdf) Australia ■ State of the Environment 2011 Supplementary information 12 Vulnerability and status of marine fishes for the Australian State of the Environment report 2011 – temperate species 2.4 Temporal changes in population size Temporal trends in population abundance and size-structure are one of the most important indicators of the health and future of a population. In addition to being a primary data requirement for fisheries models, they are also the basis of performance indicators for management actions. However in marine fish communities (and marine communities in general) measuring and interpreting temporal patterns in populations is subject to several difficulties that should be considered when interpreting population change or lack thereof. One of the most comprehensive time series of marine community structure in Australia is the Australian Institute of Marine Science Long-Term Monitoring Project (LTMP). The LTMP has been surveying 47 reefs since 1986, using a combination of 15x50m transects to count fish and measure benthic cover on the north-east flanks of reefs distributed alongshore and within different latitudinal sectors of the GBR (Fig. 5), and mantatows of Crown-of-thorn starfish numbers and supplementary coral cover estimates around the circumference of each reef. The problems associated with interpreting temporal patterns of marine organisms can be illustrated by the temporal trajectories of hard corals from the LTMP. There has been widespread concern about total coral cover loss on the GBR (e.g. Bellwood et al. 2004; Bruno and Selig 2007). Coral cover is an indicator of reef ecosystem health, and many fish species are dependent on coral cover to some extent so net loss is of great concern. However, the spatial and temporal dynamics of variability should also be taken into account and placed into perspective. Across the 47 reefs surveyed there has been a (statistically significant) hard coral decrease across reefs of 0.21% per year. However, the spatial and temporal variability of coral cover relative to this decrease is quite marked (Fig. 5), with considerable non-linear fluctuations. Importantly, these fluctuations are not coordinated in time or space across the entire GBR (Fig. 5). While some sector-shelf combinations of reefs undergo the same fluctuations in time – usually due to being subject to similar disturbances such as cyclones, crown-of-thorns starfish, and coral bleaching – there is considerable decoupling of the temporal dynamics across the entire reef and within some sector-shelf combinations (Sweatman et al. 2011, Sweatman and Syms 2011). This has important implications for fish populations that are associated with these habitats. First, there are episodic habitat changes which many fishes are initially resistant to or at least have a temporally lagged response to. Indeed the ability of fishes to endure environmental fluctuations is largely responsible for population persistence in the face of competition, and is known as the storage effect (Chesson 1981, Warner and Chesson 1985, Chesson and Huntly 1997). Marine bony fishes Australia ■ State of the Environment 2011 Supplementary information 13 Vulnerability and status of marine fishes for the Australian State of the Environment report 2011 – temperate species (with one notable exception) also have a bipartite life history with a dispersive larval phase. So if local conditions are made unsuitable for a species by, for example, local disturbance or fishing pressure, if there are refugia from the unsuitable conditions then the species is unlikely to go extinct. However, if the unsuitable conditions occur at or near the spatial scale of the population extent, or temporal fluctuations are linked at the scale of the population then the fish population becomes vulnerable. This is why geographic extent is so prominent in both the intrinsic vulnerability and IUCN criteria. The Australian marine ecosystem is strongly linked to oceanographic processes that operate at long time scales. ENSO events (La Nina, El Nino) occur on time scales of 3-10 years, and may be correlated with recruitment success or failure of different species for example (Carr and Syms 2006). Multidecadal shifts such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation can also contribute to generate ocean-wide oscillations and regime shifts (Chavez et al 2003). While measuring fish population size over three generations is difficult enough, making simple linear projections or forecasts of population trends has only limited accuracy in the context of a temporally variable environment. 2.5 Summary There are common elements to each measure of population health. First, certain life history and ecological traits intrinsically predispose fishes to different degrees of vulnerability to various forms of pressure. Widely dispersed species that are locally abundant, grow and mature rapidly, and are very fecund are less vulnerable than species that are geographically restricted, uncommon when present, slow growing, and produce few young. The general correlation between these sets of life history and ecological characteristics are implicitly included in classical fisheries models, intrinsic vulnerability, and the IUCN classification schemes, and as such all three can provide an initial insight into evaluating the health of a population. Temporal data on population size and size-structure provide the best possible means of monitoring population health, but these data sets are very few for nearshore Australia fish species. Even the best temporal data set available – the AIMS LTMP data set – only just incorporates the recommended 3 generation time span recommended by IUCN for determining less-than-extreme population declines. The example used from the AIMS data set also illustrates that three generations is still likely to be too short because of concurrent temporal changes in habitat structure, and potential differences in ocean conditions due to short-term (eg. ENSO) and longer-term (eg. multidecadal oceanographic changes). While there is a glaring need for temporal monitoring of fish populations at many locations, over many years, their main benefits will only become apparent at the decadal scale. At this time, application of the IUCN framework adapted for species-specific characters and interpreted in the context of temporal variability in environment Australia ■ State of the Environment 2011 Supplementary information 14 Vulnerability and status of marine fishes for the Australian State of the Environment report 2011 – temperate species (habitat and/or water quality) appears to be the most robust approach to assessment of Australian fish population health/status. Australia ■ State of the Environment 2011 Supplementary information 15 Vulnerability and status of marine fishes for the Australian State of the Environment report 2011 – temperate species a) Spatial distribution of AIMS coral/fish monitoring c) Cross-shelf and along-shelf variability in coral cover b) GBR-wide temporal variability and linear trends in coral cover Figure 5. Spatio-temporal coral cover from Long-term Monitoring program on the Great Barrier Reef. a) Spatial distribution of samples alongshore and cross-shelf; b) GBR-wide trends in hard coral cover. Dark points are mean values, dotted line is a linear change of 0.21%/year (95% CI: 0.36 to -0.16) estimated from a linear mixed effects model; c) Changes in coral cover per reef in each sector and shelf combination. (With kind permission from Springer Science+Business Media: Coral Reefs, Assessing loss of coral cover on Australia’s Great Barrier Reef over two decades, with implications for longer-term trends, Volume 30, 2011, pages 521–531, H. Sweatman, S. Delean and C. Syms, Figures 1, 2, and 4) Australia ■ State of the Environment 2011 Supplementary information 16 Vulnerability and status of marine fishes for the Australian State of the Environment report 2011 – temperate species 3. Species-specific assessments For the purpose of this report, we focus here on two species in the south-east corner of Australia: the red Morwong (Cheilodactylus fuscus), and the southern Maori wrasse (Ophthalomolepis lineolata). Both species are predatory generalists, with trophic levels of 2.80±0.26 and 3.5±0.37 respectively. The higher trophic level of Maori wrasse is attributable to occasional feeding on small fishes. Both species are similar in that they are temperate rocky reef habitat generalists. Although there are habitat types in which they are more abundant, they have no obligate relationship with habitat types as do, for example, tropical butterflyfishes. They both have long larval lives, and hence high dispersal potential. As with most subtropical/temperate fishes they are fished to some degree. It is difficult to find temperate carnivores that are not fished to any significant extent, but these two species differ in susceptibility to fishing. The morwongs (family: Cheilodactylidae) worldwide comprise 18 species from 5 genera, of which 16 species from 3 genera occur in Australian waters. Although primarily temperate, some representatives of the family are also found in tropical waters. The genus Cheilodactylus is the most diverse (7 species). Two Cheilodactylid species (Nemadactylus macropterus and N. douglasi) are commercially fished, and in NSW are classed as overfished. The wrasses (family: Labridae) are a very diverse group of about 500 species in approximately 60 genera, of which about half are represented in Australia (Gomon et al. 2008). They are especially diverse in tropical regions, but also very diverse in temperate regions too. While only a few species are (or have been) individually targeted in Australia (eg. Achoerodus spp.), they frequently form a large part of bycatch from other fisheries and are generally sold under the name “wrasse”. These two species differ in important ways. Red morwong are gonochoristic (female and male sexes are separate and remain so after maturity), whereas Maori wrasses are, as with most other wrasses, protogynous hermaphrodites (fish mature as females, then later change sex to males). 3.1 Data sources Two primary data sources were available for this report. In contrast with monitoring programs such as the AIMS LTMP which contains a 20 year time spatio-temporal time series for a wide range of GBR fish species, few equivalent data sets are available for temperate species. However, a developing spatial and temporal data set is available for both of these species. Dr Graham Edgar at the University of Tasmania has been establishing an Australia-wide spatial and, eventually, temporal Australia ■ State of the Environment 2011 Supplementary information 17 Vulnerability and status of marine fishes for the Australian State of the Environment report 2011 – temperate species monitoring program of subtidal reef communities (Edgar, unpubl.). To evaluate temporal patterns, in combination with closure to fishing, the second data source used here is from the Jervis Bay Marine Park Monitoring program (Barrett et al. 2006). Data consist of 50m transect counts at several sites inside and outside areas closed to fishing. The lack of temporal monitoring data from multiple sites is a serious limitation in evaluating temporal patterns in temperate fish populations, and the Jervis Bay data was important to provide the temporal context for this report. Data from both sources were kindly provided for the purposes of this report by Dr Graham Edgar (UTAS). Australia ■ State of the Environment 2011 Supplementary information 18 Vulnerability and status of marine fishes for the Australian State of the Environment report 2011 – temperate species Red Morwong (Cheilodactylus fuscus) Red morwong are primarily confined to the southeast coast of Australia (1500 linear km), and are occasionally found as vagrants in New Zealand waters. They are large (up to 65cm), generally found on rocky reefs <30m deep, in boulder habitats (Lowry and Suthers 2004) and, as with other members of the family, they are generalist carnivores feeding on a wide range of invertebrates. They appear from tagging experiments to be home ranging, and form loose aggregations which may persist in the same location over years (Lowry and Suthers 1998). They grow and mature relatively rapidly, reaching 30cm in about 5 years. It appears that juveniles recruit into shallow water and estuarine habitats, and undergo an ontogenetic shift to adult habitats (Lowry and Suthers 2004). Recruitment to shallow waters and intertidal rock pools has also been noted for the closely related banded morwong Cheilodactylus spectabilis). There is some indication of depth differences, with females and smaller fish occurring in shallower water than males (Lowry and Suthers 2004). In contrast with the AIMS LTMP data set, there are no long-term temporal estimates of red morwong populations, with a few exceptions, primarily restricted to limited sets of locations. Figure 6. Red morwong (Cheilodactylus fuscus). Photo courtesy of Dave Harasti, www.daveharasti.com Australia ■ State of the Environment 2011 Supplementary information 19 Vulnerability and status of marine fishes for the Australian State of the Environment report 2011 – temperate species There is no official listing for red morwong on the IUCN red list (“Not evaluated”). However, given their criteria, if this species had been evaluated the listing would be “Vulnerable” primarily on the basis of their geographic extent, and occupancy. Red Morwong are largely confined to NSW, along a 1500km linear stretch of coast which, assuming an approximate distribution 1km offshore to the 30m isobath, would be slightly below the IUCN value of 20,000km2. However, they occur in low numbers in north-eastern New Zealand (Paulin et al. 1989), indicating potential for long-range larval transport from eddies of the East Australian Current, to the East Auckland Current. If the IUCN red list were to include the NZ occurrences into the geographic extent, it is likely red Morwong would drop to the “Least concern” category. However under the ‘exclusion of vagrants’ provision under IUCN rules, “Vulnerable” seems a reasonable classification. The NZ population could not be considered a refuge for the species in the face of local extinction of the Australian population, as it is probably not selfsustaining, and would not be able to repopulate the Australian mainland due to lack of east-west larval transport. The “vulnerability” based on Cheung et al. 2005 of red morwong has been classed as “High”, with a score of 58/100, although under Cheung et al.’s original scale 58/100 places red morwong at the cusp of Medium-High. This is likely due to the combination of large body size and restricted spatial range. Within their geographic range, numbers of red morwong are reasonably high (Fig. 7), with no strong indication of overfishing. Although the largest reported size is 65cm, most fish from 5 to 35 years of age will be between 30-45cm long (Lowry 2003). It appears that across the geographic range, numbers of reproductive individuals are not immediately threatened and, given the long larval life of the species, replenishment of local population reductions should be possible from other coastal areas. While commercial fisheries of red morwong are “Undefined” (Rowling et al 2010), approximately 3t are caught as bycatch in the NSW Ocean Line and Trap fishery. Recreational fisheries probably contribute a greater, but unknown (estimated at <10t, Rowling et al. 2010, which could be approximated to 5,000 individuals), levels of threat to the population. Currently the only effort control of recreational fishing in NSW is a minimum size limit of 25cm, or fish approximately 5 years old and entering first year of maturity, and a bag limit of 5 per day. The primary recreational catch is taken by spearfishermen, and it is here that red morwong are particularly vulnerable. As they are large, relatively diver-neutral, and found in aggregations in shallow water they are particularly susceptible to spearing. This has been recognised for red morwong (Lowry and Suthers 2004), and Australia ■ State of the Environment 2011 Supplementary information 20 Vulnerability and status of marine fishes for the Australian State of the Environment report 2011 – temperate species the ecologically similar banded morwong (Cole 1994, Cole et al. 1990). Indeed concern about vulnerability of banded morwong has even been expressed within the spearfishing community itself (eg. Leachman et al 1978). If the spearfishing pressure was to increase, it is likely that this would disproportionately affect female fishes, as males tend to occur in deeper waters (Lowry and Suthers 2004). While the “resilience” based on estimate of von Bertalanffy growth functions is “Low”, with a minimum population doubling time of 4.5-14 years (Fishbase), examination of the fitted models of the original growth parameter estimates (Lowry 1993) indicate this might not be the best estimate, so this should be treated with caution. In addition, this resilience measure is only ecologically relevant at a large scale when the population can be effectively treated as closed. It is clear that protection from fishing can result in rapid changes in local fish numbers and size structure. Following closure to fishing in the Jervis Bay (NSW) sanctuaries, the numbers of red morwong almost doubled (Fig. 8), and importantly the number of larger fishes increased (Fig. 9). This is within the time frame of the estimated growth rates of this species, and probably indicates that while local populations can be depleted by spearfishing, across the biological population this effect can be compensated by larval production from individuals in other parts of the range. Although evidence is preliminary, the apparent ontogenetic habitat shift of red morwong from shallow and estuarine habitats to deeper exposed reefs creates a potential vulnerability. First, coastal development of estuarine areas might reduce juvenile habitat availability. This would have important implications for population maintenance and rebuilding. Second, water quality and pollution effects on juvenile habitats could be important (Lincoln-Smith and Mann 1989). Organochlorine compounds can accumulate in red morwong near sewage outfalls, and these may have effects on growth, development, and maternal transmission of toxicity to offspring (Johnston et al. 2005). Most immediate vulnerabilities appear to be manageable for this species. However, the restricted geographic range of red morwong would likely make it sensitive to climate change effects. Red morwong are at their northern limit at Cape Byron (28°S, Fig. 7), and at their southern limit of 38°S. They are rare in the Bass Strait and Tasmanian demersal fish provinces, and the most westerly record is Queenscliff, Victoria (Gomon et al. 2008). This northern limit may already have been contracted by an estimated 200km (~2° latitude) from 1950-1969, to 1987-2006 (Lough 2008), and the population could be under pressure of further northward contraction. Despite its long larval life, and relatively broad habitat requirements, red morwong appear to be strongly bounded to the west at the Bass Strait province, and although their larvae obviously can cross the Tasman Sea, they appear to have Australia ■ State of the Environment 2011 Supplementary information 21 Vulnerability and status of marine fishes for the Australian State of the Environment report 2011 – temperate species some dispersal restriction and are relatively rare in Tasmania. It is possible that Tasmania might not provide a refuge from range contraction. However, additional consequences of climate change on oceanic current changes are harder to predict. The predicted strengthening of the East Australian current, and weakening of zonal westerly winds (Hobday et al. 2006, Ridgway 2007, Ridgway and Godfrey 2007), could combine to result in more larval fish being advected offshore, and decrease the ability of larvae to establish themselves west of Bass Strait. Australia ■ State of the Environment 2011 Supplementary information 22 Vulnerability and status of marine fishes for the Australian State of the Environment report 2011 – temperate species a) Numbers of fish per 500m2 b) Size frequencies (numbers per 5000m2) 1 2 3 4 5 10 15 2025 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 50 75100 3 5 8 10 13 15 20 25 30 35 40 50 1 2 3 4 5 10 15 2025 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 50 75100 3 5 8 10 13 15 20 25 30 35 40 50 1 2 3 4 5 10 15 2025 50 75100 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 50 75100 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 3 5 8 10 13 15 20 25 30 35 40 50 1 2 3 4 5 10 15 2025 3 5 8 10 13 15 20 25 30 35 40 50 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1 2 3 4 5 10 15 2025 50 75100 3 5 8 10 13 15 20 25 30 35 40 50 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1 2 3 4 5 10 15 2025 50 75100 1 2 3 4 5 10 15 2025 50 75100 3 5 8 10 13 15 20 25 30 35 40 50 3 5 8 10 13 15 20 25 30 35 40 50 Figure 7. Numbers of red morwong per transect; and size frequency in 2 degree sections of the south-east Australian coast. Circles represent sections in which fish transects were sampled. Red circles are sections in which fish were recorded, black circles are sections in which sites were sampled, but no fish were recorded. a) Boxplots of fish abundance per 500m2 transect. Note the log scale on the x axis. b) Size-frequency distributions. The grey bars are the size at which fish enter the fishery, and black bars represent fish that are clearly of fishable size. Frequencies are scaled to 5000m2 areas to correct for different levels of sampling effort. Australia ■ State of the Environment 2011 Supplementary information 23 Vulnerability and status of marine fishes for the Australian State of the Environment report 2011 – temperate species 25 a) Habitat protection 20 15 Abundance per 500m 2 10 5 0 1996 25 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 b) Sanctuary 20 15 10 5 0 1996 1998 2000 Year Figure 8. Boxplots of red morwong abundance per 500m2 in Jervis Bay Marine Park. a) Habitat protection zones (open to fishing); b) Sanctuary zones (closed to fishing). Trend lines are Generalized Additive models of juvenile-adult fishes with natural temporal splines, selected by generalized crossvalidation, with quasipoisson distributions, and log-link. The dashed lines are the standard errors of the fit. Vertical line indicates the time of Sanctuary establishment. Australia ■ State of the Environment 2011 Supplementary information 24 Vulnerability and status of marine fishes for the Australian State of the Environment report 2011 – temperate species Abundance per 5000m2 1996-2003 a) Habitat protection 2004-2009 140 140 120 120 100 100 80 80 60 60 40 40 20 20 0 0 7.5 10 12.5 15 20 25 30 35 40 50 70 7.5 10 12.5 15 20 25 30 35 40 50 70 b) Sanctuary 140 140 120 120 100 100 80 80 60 60 40 40 20 20 0 0 7.5 10 12.5 15 20 25 30 35 40 50 70 7.5 10 12.5 15 20 25 30 35 40 50 70 Size class (cm) Figure 9. Size frequency distributions of red morwong in Jervis Bay Marine Park before (left column) and after (right column) establishment of reserves. a) Habitat protection zones (open to fishing); b) Sanctuary zones (closed to fishing). Grey bars are the size at which fishes approach harvestable size; black bars are sizes at which fishes have clearly reached legal minimum retention size. Abundances have been scaled to numbers per 5000m2 to correct for different levels of sampling effort. Australia ■ State of the Environment 2011 Supplementary information 25 Vulnerability and status of marine fishes for the Australian State of the Environment report 2011 – temperate species Southern Maori wrasse (Ophthalmolepis lineolata) Southern Maori wrasse are small (to 40cm) temperate wrasses that are endemic to Australia, and occur from approximately 28°S on the East coast, along the southern coast, albeit in low numbers particularly in the Bass Strait, though to the Houtman Abrolhos Islands in West Australia (Gomon et al. 2008). They are found on rocky coastal reefs with adults increasing in abundance with depth to 20m, and in habitats that are often more sponge-dominated than macroalgal or urchin barren dominated (Rowling et al. 2010). Maori wrasse are generalist carnivores, feeding primarily on small invertebrates (Morton et al. 2008). They are fast growing protogynous hermaphrodites, and mature as females at about 19cm (2 years old), then change sex to male at 27-34cm at around 5 years old (Stewart and Hughes 2008). Figure 10. Southern Maori wrasse (Ophthalmolepis lineolata). Photo courtesy of Dave Harasti, www.daveharasti.com Australia ■ State of the Environment 2011 Supplementary information 26 Vulnerability and status of marine fishes for the Australian State of the Environment report 2011 – temperate species Southern Maori wrasse are officially listed on the IUCN red list as “Least concern”. Despite being a monotypic genus, endemic to Australia and with no records of vagrants to New Zealand, Maori wrasse are found on both east and west Australian coasts, with a geographic extent of 6170 linear km, or approximately 61,700km2. The “vulnerability” based on Cheung et al. 2005 of Maori wrasse has been classed as “Moderate”, with a score of 44/100. Within their geographic range, numbers of Maori wrasse are fairly high (Fig. 11), with reasonable densities of both mature females and males across its range. Although it is less common in the Bass Strait province, semi-quantitative timed counts in Western Australia have found Maori wrasse to be frequent or abundant on the mid-west coast from Port Denison (Dongara, 29°S, 115°E) southwards and eastwards to Esperance (34°S, 122°E). It appears that across the geographic range, numbers of reproductive individuals are not immediately threatened and, given the long larval life of the species, replenishment of local population reductions should be possible from other coastal areas. Southern Maori wrasse are not a commercially targeted species. In 2008 they were considered “Undefined” as a NSW fishery. However they are caught and sold as bycatch in the NSW Ocean Line and Trap fishery at low levels (<10t annually) and have been more recently reassessed as “Moderately fished” (Rowling et al 2010). Recreational catch is larger than commercial landings. They are the 10th most common species caught by recreational fishers in NSW with an estimated catch of 20-30t annually (Steffe et al. 1996). There are no size or bag limits on southern Maori wrasse, and it appears from age distributions of commercial catches that most individuals are large females or males between 5 and 7 years old (Stewart and Hughes 2008). It should be noted that the assessment as ”Moderately fished” is likely based on an estimated fishing mortality of approximately half that of natural mortality rates of fish older than 4 years (Rowling et al 2010). This is possibly a liberal estimate, based on the lowest estimated natural mortality and highest estimated fishing mortality, and likely to have a large random error component, as the regression of the data on which these rates are based was probably affected by extremes of the age-range (Steffe et al. 1996, page 102), and it is possible that this is therefore not robust as a stock-wide estimate (see below). The “resilience” based on estimate of von Bertalanffy growth functions is “Medium”, with a minimum population doubling time of 1.4-4.4 years (www.Fishbase.org). The parameter estimates on which this is based is likely to be sound as the von Bertalanffy fit is quite good (Stewart and Hughes 2008, page 100). This resilience measure is only ecologically relevant at a large scale when the population can be effectively treated as closed. Protection from fishing in Jervis Bay Sanctuaries resulted in no difference in abundance (Fig. 12). However there was a small increase in the number Australia ■ State of the Environment 2011 Supplementary information 27 Vulnerability and status of marine fishes for the Australian State of the Environment report 2011 – temperate species of fishes in the 35cm size class in the Sanctuaries (Fig. 13). This relative lack of effect is unlikely to be due to poaching, as there was a sizeable increase in red morwong numbers and size (Fig. 12, 13) in the same reserves. This probably reflects either a lack of line fishing pressure in the Jervis Bay area, or fishers returning Maori wrasse, as many recreational fishers return fish <30cm to the water (Stewart and Hughes 2008). The IUCN evaluation of “Least concern” appears to be sound. The northern limit of Maori wrasse distributions might be contracted by climate change effects, particularly on the east coast with strengthening of the East Australian Current. Predictions of changes in the Leeuwin current on the west coast indicate that the West Australian populations are less likely to be affected (Hobday et al. 2006). Despite their endemism, larvae of southern Maori wrasse appear to be able to disperse widely along the Australian coastline, and they are locally abundant when present. An increase in targeted fisheries might be a cause for concern. As this species is a protogynous hermaphrodite, and only fish >30cm are generally retained by fishers, fishing effort is disproportionately applied to males and large females. This has three important consequences. First, large females are likely to supply most of the potential recruits to the population. Second, the testis of male Maori wrasse are relatively small, implying they are pair spawners (Stewart and Hughes 2008) and hence many males may be required to successfully fertilize all eggs (in contrast with some tropical wrasses). Third, many wrasses exert social control of sex change. The presence of a male may inhibit sex change in females, resulting in larger females with higher egg production. Continual removal of large, male fish may therefore decrease the total population fecundity by inducing females to change sex at younger ages. Australia ■ State of the Environment 2011 Supplementary information 28 Vulnerability and status of marine fishes for the Australian State of the Environment report 2011 – temperate species a) Numbers of fish per 500m2 b) Size frequencies (numbers per 5000m2) 1 2 3 45 10 25 50 100 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 100 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 3 5 8 10 13 15 20 25 30 35 40 50 1 2 3 45 10 25 50 3 5 8 10 13 15 20 25 30 35 40 50 1 2 3 45 10 25 50 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 100 3 5 8 10 13 15 20 25 30 35 40 50 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1 2 3 45 10 25 50 100 3 5 8 10 13 15 20 25 30 35 40 50 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1 2 3 45 10 25 50 100 1 2 3 45 10 25 50 100 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 3 5 8 10 13 15 20 25 30 35 40 50 3 5 8 10 13 15 20 25 30 35 40 50 Figure 11. Numbers of southern Maori wrasse per transect, and size frequency along 2 degree sections of the south-east Australian coast. Circles represent sections in which fish transects were sampled. Red circles are sections in which fish were recorded, black circles are sections in which sites were sampled, but no fish were recorded. a) Boxplots of fish abundance per 500m2 transect. Note the log scale on the x axis. b) Size-frequency distributions. White bars are immature fish; grey bars are likely to be mature females; black bars are likely to be mature males. Frequencies are scaled to 5000m2 areas to correct for different levels of sampling effort. Australia ■ State of the Environment 2011 Supplementary information 29 Vulnerability and status of marine fishes for the Australian State of the Environment report 2011 – temperate species 30 a) Habitat protection 25 20 15 Abundance per 500m 2 10 5 0 1996 30 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 b) Sanctuary 25 20 15 10 5 0 1996 1998 2000 Year Figure 12. Boxplots of southern Maori wrasse abundance per 500m2 in Jervis Bay Marine Park. a) Open to fishing (Habitat protection zones); b) Reserve or Sanctuary zones (closed to fishing). Trend lines are Generalized Additive models of juvenile-adult fishes with natural temporal splines, selected by generalized cross-validation, with quasipoisson distributions, and log-link. The dashed lines are the standard errors of the fit. Vertical line indicates the time of Reserve establishment. Australia ■ State of the Environment 2011 Supplementary information 30 Abundance per 5000m2 Vulnerability and status of marine fishes for the Australian State of the Environment report 2011 – temperate species 1996-2003 a) Habitat protection 250 2004-2009 250 200 200 150 150 100 100 50 50 0 0 2.5 250 5 7.5 10 12.5 15 20 25 30 35 40 b) Sanctuary 2.5 5 7.5 10 12.5 15 20 25 30 35 40 2.5 5 7.5 10 12.5 15 20 25 30 35 40 250 200 200 150 150 100 100 50 50 0 0 2.5 5 7.5 10 12.5 15 20 25 30 35 40 Size class (cm) Figure 13. Size frequency distributions of southern Maori wrasse in Jervis Bay Marine Park before (left column) and after (right column) establishment of reserve protection. a) Open to fishing (Habitat protection zones); b) Reserve or Sanctuary zones (closed to fishing). White bars are immature fish; grey bars are the sizes at which females become mature; black bars are sizes at which females change sex to become reproductively mature males. Abundances have been scaled to 5000m2 to correct for different levels of sampling effort. Australia ■ State of the Environment 2011 Supplementary information 31 Vulnerability and status of marine fishes for the Australian State of the Environment report 2011 – temperate species 4. Conclusions Indicator Red Morwong Cheilodactylus fuscus Population trends Population structure Extent of threats Inherent vulnerability GOOD Populations fluctuate through time with no apparent linear trend When released from localized fishing pressure, populations recover quickly Available time series too short to project future trends GOOD Where present, are locally abundant Individuals distributed across size classes as expected POOR Localized threats due to fishing pressure, but this probably affects <30% of the population Long-term threat due to climate change, with contraction of geographic range POOR The size, range, fecundity, and age structure of his species indicate it can recover in a reasonable time from reduction in population size Increases in population size are evident within 5 years of release from fishing pressure The large size, moderate growth rate, and small range size make this species vulnerable Maori Wrasse Ophthalmolepis lineolata GOOD Populations fluctuate through time with no apparent linear trend Available time series too short to project future trends GOOD Where present, are locally abundant Individuals distributed across size classes as expected GOOD Despite classification as “moderately fished”, no apparent effect of removal of fishing effort Wide geographic range should buffer climate change effects GOOD The size, range, fecundity, and age structure of his species indicate it can recover moderately rapidly from reduction in population size The small size, rapid growth rate, and large range size reduce vulnerability IUCN evaluation VULNERABLE LEAST CONCERN Overall assessment POOR-GOOD GOOD Australia ■ State of the Environment 2011 Supplementary information 32 Vulnerability and status of marine fishes for the Australian State of the Environment report 2011 – temperate species Acknowledgments The spatial fish abundance data of Cheilodactylus fuscus and Ophthalmolepis lineolata were kindly provided by Dr Graham Edgar and Dr Rick Stuart Smith, University of Tasmania. 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