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Holy Trinity Lutheran Church
Mainline
Manhattan (Upper East Side)
Mark R. Collins, the Rev.
11/11/2012
SERMON TEXT
The Butterfly Effect
There were a couple of interesting articles in the Times this past week or so that caught my eye. One of them dealt
with the presidential election and the techniques used by the Obama campaign to get out the vote. In 2008, the
president’s campaign put together an awesome effort to increase voter turnout, and it worked. They planned to do
the same this year, and did, in fact; increasing turnout among some of the groups of voters they targeted. Governor
Romney’s team was sure that the turnout for the president would be less, much less, than in the previous election.
And as you may have heard in the news, they were shocked to find that their opponent had won the election, in part
by getting his supporters to go to the polls in great numbers.
The article in the Times I read related how the Obama campaign made use of behavioral science. The use of
behavioral science in public relations efforts and in political and advertising campaigns is nothing new. But the
Obama campaign seems to have really capitalized on the insights of behavioral science in their get out the vote
efforts. Campaign workers reached out to voters on an almost individual basis. Campaign volunteers informed
supporters that others in their neighborhood that they had spoken too were committed to voting and planning to vote,
and urged them to make a plan to vote too. The fact that others in their community had committed to voting, and
made plans -- picked the time of day, for instance, and found out their polling place -- increased voter turn out.
Another article in last Saturday’s Times related the devastating effect that Hurricane Sandy had on the Midland
Beach neighborhood in Staten Island. After the mayor issued the mandatory evacuation order for Midland Beach
and all Zone A neighborhoods in the city, John Prisinzano, who has lived in Midland Beach for 32 years, related to
the Times reporter repeated conversations he had with his neighbors. “’Hey, how you doing? Are you going to stay?’
someone would say. ‘Yeah, we’re going to stay,’ came the reply.”
67-year-old Eugene Contrubis died when his one story bungalow in Midland Beach was flooded by Sandy’s storm
surge. Mr. Contrubis’s sister-in-law told the Times how she’d urged him to evacuate the Zone A neighborhood. But
Mr. Contrubis told his concerned family, “Everybody’s staying; nobody’s leaving. I’m not going to leave.”
In the end, citywide, only about half the residents of Zone A followed the mandatory evacuation order. Residents of
Midland Beach told the Times that their number of non-evacuators was much higher than half.
Midland Beach, Staten Island had the highest concentration of deaths from Hurricane Sandy. Eight people died
within eight short blocks of each other; all of them were older, the youngest was 59 years old.
++++++++++++++++
In mathematics, there is a field of study devoted to chaos theory. One of the tenets of chaos theory is called the
butterfly effect. The butterfly effect holds that a small change at one place can result in large differences in another
place later on. The name of the effect is derived from the theoretical example of a hurricane's formation being
contingent on whether or not a distant butterfly had flapped its wings several weeks before.
There’s no such thing as an individual choice. What we do, what we choose to do has an effect on others. Every
choice we make, every action we take, is subject to the butterfly effect.
The writer of the Epistle to the Hebrews knew this. That’s why in our second lesson this morning we are given this
admonition, “Let us consider how to provoke one another to love and good deeds, not neglecting to meet together as
is the habit of some, but encouraging one another, and all the more as you see the Day approaching.” (Hebrews
10:24-25)
This morning, in our liturgy, those who care to will come forward and place a pledge card on the altar. Those
pledges will become the basis of all that we do here in this place to honor God and to care for God’s people in the
coming year. Every ministry, every program, every prophetic word spoken, every beautiful anthem sung, every meal
for the hungry and every resting place for the homeless will come in some fashion from what is contained on those
cards.
But what’s contained on those cards is tomorrow’s revelation. We’ll total them up on Monday, and see where we
stand, where we will stand for all of 2013.
All that we’ll do today is come forward and place a card in a basket. It’s not much, really; a short walk up the aisle
and back. But for those of us here today, and for all those, many as yet unknown to us, who we’ll encounter in our
ministry this coming year, it will have a profound effect. An effect, I expect, much greater than the gentle beat of a
butterfly’s wing.
What we do, all that we do, matters. It matters in ways we can’t yet see or know. I hope you’ll choose to be among
the number that make the walk up the aisle this morning; regardless of how large or small the number on your card
might be. As I’ve said, that’s for tomorrow.
Today, we place a card in the basket, and the coming kingdom of God comes a little bit closer to East 88 th Street.
And God will be praised in this place again, and one more hungry belly filled, maybe even a life preserved, maybe
even a soul saved. All from a card in a basket.
+++++++++++++
In our first reading this morning, the Lord declared to Daniel, “Those who lead many to righteousness (will shine)
like the stars forever.” (Daniel 12:3) We’ve heard from a few of our fellow Holy Trinitarians this pledge season,
who have attempted to lead us to righteousness. Now, we’ll hear from just one more.
© The Rev. Mark R. Collins