2010 Second Refrigerator Recycling Program NV Energy – Southern Nevada Program Year 2010 Measurement & Verification Report June 2011 Prepared for: Prepared by: 3239 Ramos Circle Sacramento, CA 95827 916-363-8383 TABLE OF CONTENTS Section Title Page 1. Executive Summary ....................................................................................... ES-1 2. Project Background ........................................................................................ 2-1 3. M&V Methodology ....................................................................................... 3-1 4. Energy Impact Findings ................................................................................. 4-1 5. Key Findings and Issues ................................................................................ 5-1 Appendix A Survey Form................................................................................................... A-1 Appendix B Monthly Savings Tables by Rate Class ......................................................... B-1 Appendix C Assessments of Effective Useful Life for Refrigerators and Freezers ........... C-1 i 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This measurement and verification (M&V) report provides measured and verified energy impacts achieved by the Second Refrigerator Recycling Program (RRP) that NV Energy offered to its customers in southern Nevada during 2010. RRP was a demand side management (DSM) program that offered residential customers $30 rebates for the recycling of secondary refrigerators and freezers during the January to December 2010 program year. This program aimed to remove from the grid old, inefficient refrigerators, which are often operating in unconditioned spaces such as garages and patios. Ex post electric savings were determined from detailed analyses of program data extracted from the NV Energy DataStore (the official tracking database). Analyses of these data by the M&V contractor (ADM Associates) included a census of model numbers; unit ages; DOE data on kW draw of recycled equipment; and equipment-degradation models that have been utilized to evaluate similar recycling programs. Verified electric impacts were 6,708,238 kWh saved annually, which represents a realization rate of 73%; 3,315,887 kWh were saved during the 2010 calendar year (first year savings). Critical peak (or on-peak) demand savings are calculated by month and by rate class; summer critical peak demand savings provided by this program is 955 kW. A sample size was determined that allowed measured and verified savings to be determined for the program in southern Nevada with 5.5% precision at the 90% confidence level. The numbers reported constitute gross savings. Table ES-1 Energy Impact Summary First-Year (2010) Energy Savings (kWh) Unit Type Ex Ante Ex Post Refrigerators 4,306,963 3,038,133 Freezers 418,987 277,754 Total 4,725,951 3,315,887 1 Annual Energy Savings (kWh) Remaining Lifetime Energy Useful Savings (kWh) Life 1 (RUL), Ex Ante Ex Post Ex Ante Ex Post years 8,377,432 6,109,932 8 67,019,456 48,879,457 814,968 598,305 8 6,519,744 4,786,444 9,192,400 6,708,238 73,539,200 53,665,900 According to the implementation contractor, ex ante energy savings are assumed to be 1,372 kWh per unit per year (the projected average value for all units) for all refrigerators and freezers in the RRP 2010 population. Executive Summary ES-1 2. PROJECT BACKGROUND The Second Refrigerator Recycling Program (RRP) is designed to help customers reduce their energy consumption by removing second refrigerators from their homes to recycle them. NV Energy (NVE) also benefits because the second refrigerator, which is generally more inefficient, will be permanently removed from the system. The recycling process also includes safe disposal of environmentally harmful material, providing collateral benefits from the RRP program. The goal of the program is to reduce the number of old, inefficient refrigerators that customers have moved to their garages or other locations such as basements and patios. Many areas in which spare units are placed are not space conditioned, and most refrigerators used in that environment operate under a heavy thermal load during the summer. This is exacerbated by the fact the refrigerators are usually old and inefficient. Previous studies by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the Department of Energy (DOE) and other utilities have determined that removing these refrigerators, and properly recycling them, performs an energy saving service.2 In 2010, the program was configured as a turnkey, stand-alone energy efficiency initiative. The program was advertised to the public via ads, bill stuffers, point-of-sale flyers and media events. To qualify for the program, refrigerators and freezers were required to be in working condition. Participating customers received pick-up and removal service in addition to a $30 rebate per recycled unit. Removing old, inefficient refrigerators prevents them from being resold or transferred to another NVE customer. The program provides annual electric energy savings for the remaining life of the unit by permanently removing the unit from service. As an added environmental benefit, 95% of the materials from these units are able to be recycled (metals, plastic, glass, oil, etc.) and disposed of in an environmentally responsible manner (hazardous materials), thus preventing the materials from reaching landfills and contaminating the environment. 2 EPA information available at http://www.epa.gov/ozone/title6/608/disposal/household.html Project Background 2-1 3. M&V METHODOLOGY This chapter provides a description of the M&V methodologies applied by ADM in the evaluation of the 2010 RRP. The M&V approach for the RRP is aimed at measuring the following: Numbers of refrigerators and freezers collected and recycled; Percentage of units still operable when recycled; Date the unit was unplugged; Average annual kWh savings per collected appliance; and Average kW reduction per collected appliance. 3.1 VERIFICATION OF UNITS RECYCLED A first aspect of conducting measurements of program activity is to verify the numbers of refrigerators and freezers collected and recycled. Our verification effort was threefold, consisting of: 1) Validating tracking data in the DataStore, checking for duplicate or erroneous entries; 2) Conducting verification surveys with a statistically valid sample of program participants; and 3) Verifying that refrigerators and freezers are recycled according to the process agreed-upon between JACO and NVE.. As the first step in the verification, data for the program reported in the DataStore were reviewed. No duplicate entries were discovered. The numbers of refrigerators and freezers reported in the DataStore as being recycled during 2010 are shown in Table 3-1. Table 3-1 Numbers of Refrigerators and Freezers Reported in DataStore as Being Recycled in Southern Nevada in 2010 Unit Type Refrigerator Freezer Total Quantity Reported as Recycled 6,106 594 6,700 ADM conducted telephone interviews with a sample of participants in the program to obtain information with which to determine the percentage of units that were still operable when picked up by the recyclers via. A random sample, stratified by appliance type (refrigerator or freezer), was selected to ensure that 90% confidence with 10% relative precision (or better) would be achieved for each type of unit. M&V Methodology 3-1 Second Refrigerator Recycling Program: 2010 – NV Energy, Southern Nevada M&V Report June 2011 For the calculation of sample size, a coefficient of variation of 0.5 was assumed. 3 On this assumption, a sample size of 68 participants is required, as shown in the following formula. Minimum Sample Size Formula for 90% Confidence 1.645∗𝐶𝑉 2 𝑛0 = ( 𝑅𝑃 1.645∗0.5 2 ) =( 0.10 ) = 68 where: n0 = minimum sample size CV = Coefficient of Variation (assumed to be 0.5) RP = Relative Precision (0.10) ADM actually conducted phone surveys with 80 customers who recycled refrigerators and 70 who recycled freezers, which provided results at the program level of 5.5% relative precision at the 90% confidence interval. The goals of the survey were (1) to assess whether any non-eligible units were recycled and (2) to assess participant satisfaction with the program. The questionnaire that was the instrument for the survey interviews in provided in Appendix A. All 150 respondents who were interviewed verified that they had in fact recycled a refrigerator or freezer through the program. Of the 80 customers who recycled a refrigerator, 71 (88.8%) indicated that the refrigerator was in working condition. Of the 70 customers who recycled a freezer, 67 (95.7%) indicated that the freezer was in working condition. Recycling procedures and unit operation at the time of recycling were verified through ridealongs that ADM staff made for pick-ups. All of the units observed being picked up during the ADM ride-alongs were verified to be operational. ADM also visited the North Las Vegas recycling center and verified operations there. Based on the results from the telephone survey and the ride-along visits, ADM determined that it was appropriate to apply the following verification rates for the refrigerators and freezers recycled through the program during 2010. (Verification rates represent the percentage of units recycled through the program that were in working condition and therefore program-eligible.,) Verification rate for refrigerators: 88.8% Verification rate for freezers: 95.7% 3 The coefficient of variation, cv(y), is a measure of variation for the variable to be estimated. Its value depends on the mean and standard deviation of the distribution of values for the variable (i.e., cv(y) = sd(y)/mean(y)). Essentially, cv is a metric of how wide the distribution of values for the variable of interest is. As set out in the Model Energy Efficiency Program Impact Evaluation Guide3: Until the actual mean and standard deviation of the population can be estimated from actual samples, 0.5 is often accepted as an initial estimate for cv. The more homogenous the population, the smaller the cv. Using a cv = 0.5 is also in accordance with California Evaluation Protocols for homogenous measures. M&V Methodology 3-2 Second Refrigerator Recycling Program: 2010 – NV Energy, Southern Nevada M&V Report June 2011 Based on these verification rates, Table 3-2 reports the numbers of refrigerators and freezers recycled through the program during 2010 that were verified as being in working condition when recycled and therefore program-eligible. Table 3-2 Numbers of Refrigerators and Freezers Recycled through Program in 2010 and Verified in Working Condition Unit Type Refrigerator Freezer Total 3.2 Quantity Reported as Recycled Verification Rate 6,106 594 6,700 88.8% 95.7% Quantity of Recycled Units Verified as in Working Condition 5,422 569 5,991 CALCULATING ANNUAL KWH SAVINGS PER APPLIANCE The implementer for NVE’s Second Refrigerator Recycling Program projected ex ante savings for recycled units by taking the manufacture’s estimate of annual kWh usage for a recycled unit and increasing that to reflect at-death energy usage, based on an assumed equipment degradation factor. For the M&V effort, this procedure was examined with respect to (1) the assumed degradation factor and (2) the accuracy of energy use as calculated through the DOE test procedure. ADM’s review of available literature and data showed that that the degradation coefficients applied by the implementer were at the upper-end of the range of coefficients observed in other similar studies. Based on the large amount of metered data analyzed and its comprehensive nature, ADM determined that a more appropriate equipment-degradation factor could be developed using data and analysis prepared by The Cadmus Group in a 2009 study on refrigerator degradation for the California Public Utilities Commission.4 For its study, Cadmus used data on refrigerator / freezer energy use obtained through two in situ monitoring efforts: A dual monitoring study that ADM conducted in support of the evaluation of the (California) 2004-2005 Statewide Residential Appliance Recycling Program; and Additional in situ monitoring that Cadmus conducted as part of its study. The product of these efforts was a database that contained energy use obtained through both DOE testing and in situ monitoring for a sample of 321 units, 184 of which were from the 20042005 evaluation and 137 from the 2006-2008 evaluation. Cadmus used the data from this dual monitoring sample to develop regression models that relate in situ energy use to energy use as 4 The Cadmus Group, Inc. “Residential Retrofit High Impact Measure Evaluation Report”, prepared for the California Public Utilities Commission. February 7, 2010. M&V Methodology 3-3 Second Refrigerator Recycling Program: 2010 – NV Energy, Southern Nevada M&V Report June 2011 determined from the DOE test procedure and modification factors based on weather and household size. These modification factors are summarized in Table 3-3. Table 3-3. In Situ Monitoring Adjustments to DOE Testing Values Primary Yes Household Size 1-2 3+ No 1-2 3+ Climate Zone N Cool Warm Cool Warm Cool Warm Cool Warm 29 18 50 32 86 42 59 31 % In Situ Delta5 -30.8% -19.2% -16.0% -6.4% -21.3% -15.8% -6.8% 1.3% For this M&V study, Southern Nevada is treated as a Warm Climate. Because distribution of household sizes is not known for the population of customers participating in the RRP, the distribution observed in the Cadmus study was used. As this program focuses on second refrigerator recycling, the figures used in the calculations to follow are drawn from Table 3-1 where Primary = “No”. There were 42 households with 1-2 people and 31 with 3+. Weighting the “% In Situ Delta” by these values, we get an adjustment factor of: [(42/73) x -15.8%] + [(31/73) x 1.3%] = -8.54% Using these analytical results, it was determined that annual kWh increases by 1.25% per year because of equipment degradation. The final result is then reduced by 8.54% in order to account for the effects of weather and household size calculated in the Cadmus study. Therefore the annual energy savings (kWh) for the population of refrigerators and freezers in the RRP is calculated using the following equation: 𝑵 𝑬𝒏𝒆𝒓𝒈𝒚 𝑺𝒂𝒗𝒊𝒏𝒈𝒔 (𝒌𝑾𝒉)𝑨𝒏𝒏𝒖𝒂𝒍 = ∑ 𝑿 ∗ 𝟏. 𝟎𝟏𝟐𝟓𝒚 ∗ (𝟏 − 𝟎. 𝟎𝟖𝟓𝟒) 𝒏=𝟏 where X is per unit rated annual kWh usage at time of manufacture, i.e., prior to degradation 1.0125 is the degradation coefficient of 1.25% per year y is age of unit, i.e., years since manufacture 0.0854 is the weather/household effects coefficient (from referenced Cadmus study) 5 A negative in situ delta represents an in situ UEC that is lower than the DOE UEC M&V Methodology 3-4 Second Refrigerator Recycling Program: 2010 – NV Energy, Southern Nevada M&V Report June 2011 A further adjustment was made to account for some of the appliances that were recycled not being used throughout the entire year. An adjustment to gross savings was therefore appropriate for such units to reflect this part use (i.e., the proportion of a year that a given recycled appliance had been used rather than switched off). Different values for use factors were assigned based on three categories into which recycled refrigerators fall. Some units that were recycled were not being used at all before being sent for recycling. The use factor for such units therefore would 0. That is, these units were not being used even before recycling and therefore had no energy use. Other units were being used, but for only part of the year. For these units, the use factor is calculated by dividing the number of months in the past year that the unit had been plugged in and running by the number of months in the year (i.e., 12). Based on data collected through the survey of participants, the average number of months in use for a refrigerator that was being partly used was 7.3 months, implying a use factor of 0.611 (i.e., 7.3/12). For freezers in this category, the use factor was calculated to be 0.222, reflecting an average of 2.7 months in use for freezers being partly used. Units used all of the time have a use factor of 1. The overall use factor and the corresponding overall Unit Energy Savings (UES) are calculated as a weighted average across the three categories, where the weights are determined by the percentages of units falling into the three categories. Table 3-4 shows the calculation of the overall UESs for refrigerators and freezers when part use is accounted for. Table 3-4. Calculation of Unit Energy Savings Adjusted for Part Use Operating Status of Unit Percentage of Recycled Units in Category Use Factor Calculation of UES to Adjust for Part Use Refrigerators Not running 0 Running part time 3.8% 0.611 Running all time 96.2% 1.000 Weighted Average UES for Refrigerators 0 286 1,144 1,127 Freezers Not running 2.9% Running part time 4.3% Running all time 92.8% Weighted Average UES for Freezers 0.000 0.222 1.000 0 249 1,123 1,053 The above procedure can be summarized as follows: Each appliance in the population starts with a kWh usage at time of manufacture. This kWh value is then degraded based on unit age and other factors that affect the unit’s efficiency over time. The kWh for each unit is further adjusted M&V Methodology 3-5 Second Refrigerator Recycling Program: 2010 – NV Energy, Southern Nevada M&V Report June 2011 (1) to represent in situ usage, as opposed to a DOE laboratory setting and (2) to take account of some units being used only part of the year. Finally, the adjusted kWh values for each unit are summed over the population to represent total program savings. 3.3 CALCULATING FIRST-YEAR KWH SAVINGS First-year kWh savings were calculated by determining what percent of the year was remaining when the unit was recycled. Based upon our surveys with participants, we determined on average that the units were unplugged one week prior to recycling. As such, we subtracted one week from the recycling data listed in the DataStore tracking data, and calculated how many days were left in the year following unplugging. The remaining time in service was then used along with load shapes for refrigerators in the Reno climate zone in determining the share of annualized kWh savings realized in the 2010 program year. After first-year kWh was calculated for each unit individually, they were then summed in order to determine program-level first-year kWh savings. 3.4 CALCULATION OF CRITICAL PEAK DEMAND SAVINGS The three-hour critical peak demand period per month for NPC (NV Energy South) is defined as the maximum average hourly demand during the three consecutive hours per month shown below in Table 3-5. For example, the three-hour critical peak (or on-peak) period during July is the maximum average hourly demand from 16:00 hours or 4:00 PM to 18:59 hours or 6:59 PM. Table 3-5. Critical Peak Demand Period per Month, NPC NPC (NV Energy South) Three-Hour Critical Peak Period Hour 1 begins at: Hour 2 begins at: Hour 3 begins at: January 18:00 19:00 20:00 February March April May June July August September October November December 18:00 19:00 20:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 Critical peak demand savings (kW savings) are calculated by month and by rate class, utilizing ex post program savings calculations and appropriate measure-level, 8760-hour load shapes. For each 2010 participant in this program, ex post annualized energy savings per measure is allocated M&V Methodology 3-6 Second Refrigerator Recycling Program: 2010 – NV Energy, Southern Nevada M&V Report June 2011 to the specific rate class for that participant, and to the specific load shape for that measure. The result is a two dimensional matrix providing per-rate-class savings per hour for all 8760 hours of the typical calendar year. We then inspect the results for each month to identify the maximum average hourly demand during the three consecutive hours per month shown in Table 3-5. The complete ex post determinations for critical peak demand savings (kW savings) per month and per rate class are provided in Appendix B. 3.5 DETERMINATION OF EFFECTIVE USEFUL LIFE (EUL) ADM determined that an EUL of eight years was a reasonable and relatively conservative6 value for the population of refrigerators and freezers that were recycled through this program. Appendix C presents the results of analyses used to derive effective useful life assessments for refrigerators and freezers. 6 Based on its analyses of data extracted from the 2009 Residential Appliance Saturation Survey (RASS) conducted in California, ADM determined that one could argue on behalf of average measure lives of as high as 10.86 years for both refrigerators and freezers. M&V Methodology 3-7 4. ENERGY IMPACT FINDINGS This chapter provides detailed results pertaining to the energy impacts of the program during 2010. 4.1 ENERGY IMPACTS AND VARIANCES Table 4-1 presents ex ante and ex post energy savings, along with program-year realization rates, both disaggregated between refrigerators and freezers as well as the aggregated totals. Table 4-1. Annual Energy Impact Summary Unit Type Ex Ante Energy Savings (kWh) Refrigerators Freezers Totals 8,377,432 814,968 9,192,400 Ex Post Energy Savings (kWh) 6,109,932 598,305 6,708,238 Variance Realization Rate -2,267,500 -216,663 -2,484,162 73% 73% 73% Table 4-2 summarizes the first-year kWh impact of the 2010 RRP in southern Nevada. As stated in the methodology section, this is based on the recycling dates listed, with the annual savings per unit scaled by the percentage of the year remaining subsequent to their removal from service. Table 4-2. Lifetime Energy Savings Summary (Ex Post) First-Year (2010) Energy Savings (kWh) Unit Type 3,038,133 277,754 3,315,887 Refrigerators Freezers Total 4.2 Annual Energy Savings (kWh) 6,109,932 598,305 6,708,238 Remaining Useful Life (RUL), Years 8 8 Lifetime Energy Savings (kWh) 48,879,457 4,786,444 53,665,900 IMPACT BY RATE CLASS Refrigerators and freezers recycled through the program provide savings in three rate classes. These classes, along with their share of annual kWh savings realized through the RRP, are as follows: RS: 87.49% RSL: 0.03% RM: 11.10% ORMTOU: 0.07% ORSTOU-A: 1.30% Energy Impact Findings 4-1 Second Refrigerator Recycling Program: 2010 – NV Energy, Southern Nevada M&V Report June 2011 The resulting savings by rate class are presented in Table 4-3 below. Table 4-3. Energy Impacts by Rate Class Rate Class RS RSL RM ORMTOU ORSTOU-A Total First-year (2010) Energy Savings (kWh) 2,883,421 793 390,183 1,137 40,353 3,315,887 Annual Energy Savings (kWh) 5,869,335 2,001 744,790 5,003 87,109 6,708,238 Lifetime Energy Savings (kWh) 46,954,677 16,010 5,958,316 40,026 696,871 53,665,900 Additionally, ADM determined monthly savings results for the first year and for years 2011 through 2013. These results are provided in Appendix B. Energy Impact Findings 4-2 5. KEY FINDINGS AND ISSUES This chapter presents key findings and issues. 5.1 SUMMARY OF KEY FINDINGS Key findings from the M&V work were as follows. The first and foremost key finding pertains to the degradation factor used by the implementer. This factor is at the upper-tier of degradation factors reported in other studies. The factor assumed by the implementer was based on a study of public housing in New York conducted in 1998. That may cause issues of transferability to this program, as the NV Energy RRP is primarily focused on the private residential market. Research into more recent analyses of refrigerator degradation indicates that the appropriate annual degradation factor would be 1.25%, lower than the 1.37% figure used in the ex ante projections. A second key finding was that a correction factor based on in situ monitoring resulted in savings being reduced by 8.54%, with this attributable to a statistically significant sample of monitoring under normal operating conditions as opposed to DOE laboratory conditions. The final result was a realization rate of 73%, with results of: 6,708,238 kWh savings per year; 3,315,887 First-Year kWh Savings; and 955 Summer Critical Peak kW Savings. 5.2 SUMMARY OF KEY ISSUES An issue that arose during the M&V effort pertained to the reporting of data to NV Energy’s DataStore tracking database by the implementation contractor. Specifically, data on participant phone numbers, unit configuration (side-by-side, top freezer, etc.), or unit defrost type were not included in the reporting to the DataStore. Because data for these fields were not reported in the DataStore, these data were acquired directly from the implementer. Collecting the data directly from the implementer enabled ADM to complete all requisite aspects of its evaluation of energy impacts despite some data not being reported in the DataStore. However, the M&V effort would be more efficient if the data were available in the Data Store. The M&V work for the RRP program would be facilitated if more information on unit configuration and defrost type were recorded in the DataStore. In addition, conducting the survey portion would be easier if phone numbers were uploaded along with the rest of the customer information, rather than being part of a separate database. Finally, the ex ante energy savings values reported in the DataStore should represent the ex ante values that the implementer expects ADM to use for the purpose of ADM’s impact evaluation. Key Findings and Issues 5-1 APPENDIX A SURVEY FORM This appendix provides a copy of the survey form used in the telephone surveys. NV Energy Second Refrigerator Recycling Participant Survey Questionnaire Interviewer: _____________________ Date of Interview: _____/_____/_____ Respondent: Address: ________________________ ____________________ Hello. My name is _____, and I am calling on behalf of NVE. I am conducting a brief survey regarding NVE’s Refrigerator Recycling Program. May I ask you a few questions? 1. Do you recall having one of your old refrigerators or freezers picked up for recycling? ___ Yes ___ No (if no, thank the respondent and terminate the interview) 2. How did you first hear about the NVE Refrigerator Recycling Program? a. Retailer b. Newspaper or magazine ad/article c. TV ad d. Friend or relative e. NVE website f. NVE brochure g. NVE bill insert h. Don’t Know (Don’t Read) i. Other (Specify) 3. When was the old refrigerator picked up? _______________ (month and year) Appendix A: Survey Form A-1 Second Refrigerator Recycling Program: 2010 – NV Energy, Southern Nevada M&V Report June 2011 4. When did you learn about the NVE Refrigerator Recycling program and the available rebate? a. Before deciding to recycle the refrigerator b. After deciding to recycle the refrigerator c. At the same time as deciding to recycle the refrigerator d. Don’t Know (Don’t read) 5. Why did you want to get rid of your old refrigerator/freezer? a. Bought a replacement b. Didn’t need it anymore c. It didn’t work anymore d. It cost too much to run e. Other: __________________________________________________________________ 6. Was the old refrigerator still in working condition when it was picked up? ___ Yes ___ No (skip to #8) 7. Was the old refrigerator still being used when it was picked up? (If respondent says no, ask probing question, i.e., “Was it in use prior to calling NVE for recycling?”, “When did you stop using the refrigerator (month/yr)?” ___ Yes, all of the time ___ Yes, some of the time ___ No 7b. If “Some of the time” – Approximately how many months out of the year was the refrigerator in use? 8. What month/year was the refrigerator last plugged in? _______________ (month and year) 9. Did you have specific plans to recycle the refrigerator prior to learning of the NVE Refrigerator Recycling Program? ___ Yes ___ No Appendix A: Survey Form A-2 Second Refrigerator Recycling Program: 2010 – NV Energy, Southern Nevada M&V Report June 2011 10. What would you have done with your old refrigerator if you had not recycled it thru NVE? a. Continued to use it b. Sold it c. Unplugged and stored it d. Junked it e. Given it away f. Other: _________________________________________________________________ 11. How old was your old refrigerator/freezer at the time you recycled it? __________ Years Old 12. 12. When the refrigerator was in use, where in the house was it set up? (Prompt only if necessary) a. Kitchen b. Den/Lounge c. Garage d. Basement e. Other (specify) _______________ 13. Have you ever needed to replace a major appliance before? ___ Yes ___ No (skip to #15) 14. When replacing a major appliance, what do you typically do with the old unit (Prompt only if necessary)? a. Take for recycling b. Dispose at a dump c. Give to friend/family d. Donate to Charity e. Sell the appliance f. Other (Explain) Appendix A: Survey Form A-3 Second Refrigerator Recycling Program: 2010 – NV Energy, Southern Nevada M&V Report June 2011 15. If NVE had not offered a rebate for recycling the refrigerator, how likely would you have been to recycle the refrigerator anyway? a. Definitely would have recycled b. Probably would have recycled c. Definitely would not have recycled d. Definitely would not have recycled e. Don’t know 16. How important was the rebate in your decision to recycle the refrigerator? a. Very Important b. Somewhat Important c. Slightly Important d. Not at All Important e. Don’t Know (Don’t Read) 17. How satisfied were you with the rebate you received for recycling your old refrigerator/freezer? a. Very Satisfied b. Somewhat Satisfied c. Somewhat Unsatisfied d. Very Unsatisfied e. Don’t Know 18. How satisfied were you with the length of time it took to receive the rebate for recycling your old refrigerator/freezer? a. Very Satisfied b. Somewhat Satisfied c. Somewhat Unsatisfied d. Very Unsatisfied e. Don’t Know Appendix A: Survey Form A-4 Second Refrigerator Recycling Program: 2010 – NV Energy, Southern Nevada M&V Report June 2011 19. How satisfied were you with the scheduling of the pick-up of your old refrigerator/freezer? a. Very Satisfied b. Somewhat Satisfied c. Somewhat Unsatisfied d. Very Unsatisfied e. Don’t Know 20. How satisfied were you with the overall recycling process for your old refrigerator/freezer? a. Very Satisfied b. Somewhat Satisfied c. Somewhat Unsatisfied d. Very Unsatisfied e. Don’t Know 21. (If Unsatisfied for Q17, Q18, Q19 or Q20) Why were you unsatisfied with the (rebate, scheduling, length of time to get the rebate, or overall) recycling of your old refrigerator? ___________________________________________________________________________________ ___________________________________________________________________________________ ___________________________________________________________________________________ ___________________________________________________________________________________ 22. Do you have any specific comments or suggestions about how to improve the Refrigerator Recycling Program? Appendix A: Survey Form A-5 APPENDIX B MONTHLY SAVINGS TABLES BY RATE CLASS This appendix provides monthly savings by rate class for the years 2010-2013. Table B-1 Monthly Savings by Rate Class - 2010 Rate Class Jan Feb Mar RS 13,969 39,179 75,948 - - - RSL RM 2,447 7,215 - ORMTOU Apr 111,567 ORSTOU-A 104 319 759 Total 16,520 46,712 89,499 - 24,698 - Jul 227,528 - 18,471 - Jun 166,418 - 12,792 - May 32,117 - Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total 305,571 358,133 376,030 395,092 386,933 427,051 2,883,421 60 97 166 169 151 150 793 41,381 46,944 48,544 50,697 50,282 54,595 390,183 6 193 179 169 216 375 1,137 - 1,180 2,312 3,294 4,061 4,803 5,628 5,872 5,647 6,373 40,353 131,218 193,429 262,939 351,080 410,170 430,548 451,999 443,229 488,543 3,315,887 Nov Dec Table B-2 Monthly Savings by Rate Class – 2011 Rate Class RS Jan Feb 438,596 Mar 411,405 Apr 458,304 May 478,690 Jun 512,206 Jul 535,195 Aug 567,304 Sep 561,972 Oct 521,517 494,905 445,803 Total 443,438 5,869,335 RSL 148 139 155 163 175 184 195 193 179 169 151 150 2,001 RM 55,486 52,093 58,040 60,729 65,033 68,068 72,190 71,497 66,289 62,787 56,464 56,114 744,790 370 348 388 408 437 460 488 483 447 422 378 375 5,003 6,509 6,106 6,802 7,104 7,602 7,943 8,420 8,340 7,740 7,345 6,616 6,581 87,109 501,110 470,092 523,690 547,095 585,453 611,849 648,596 642,486 596,171 565,627 509,412 506,657 6,708,238 ORMTOU ORSTOU-A Total Appendix B: Monthly Savings by Rate Class B-1 Second Refrigerator Recycling Program: 2010 – NV Energy, Southern Nevada M&V Report June 2011 Table B-3 Monthly Savings by Rate Class – 2012 Rate Class Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total 438,596 426,190 458,304 478,690 512,206 535,195 567,304 561,972 521,517 494,905 445,803 443,438 5,884,119 RSL 148 144 155 163 175 184 195 193 179 169 151 150 2,006 RM 55,486 53,966 58,040 60,729 65,033 68,068 72,190 71,497 66,289 62,787 56,464 56,114 746,662 RS 370 361 388 408 437 460 488 483 447 422 378 375 5,016 6,509 6,325 6,802 7,104 7,602 7,943 8,420 8,340 7,740 7,345 6,616 6,581 87,328 501,110 486,986 523,690 547,095 585,453 611,849 648,596 642,486 596,171 565,627 509,412 506,657 6,725,132 ORMTOU ORSTOU-A Total Table B-4 Monthly Savings by Rate Class - 2013 Rate Class Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total 438,596 411,405 458,304 478,690 512,206 535,195 567,304 561,972 521,517 494,905 445,803 443,438 5,869,335 RSL 148 139 155 163 175 184 195 193 179 169 151 150 2,001 RM 55,486 52,093 58,040 60,729 65,033 68,068 72,190 71,497 66,289 62,787 56,464 56,114 744,790 370 348 388 408 437 460 488 483 447 422 378 375 5,003 6,509 6,106 6,802 7,104 7,602 7,943 8,420 8,340 7,740 7,345 6,616 6,581 87,109 501,110 470,092 523,690 547,095 585,453 611,849 648,596 642,486 596,171 565,627 509,412 506,657 6,708,238 RS ORMTOU ORSTOU-A Total Appendix B: Monthly Savings by Rate Class B-2 Second Refrigerator Recycling Program: 2010 – NV Energy, Southern Nevada M&V Report June 2011 Table B-5 Critical Peak Demand (kW) Reduction per Month per Rate Tariff Rate Class Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 624 650 668 762 789 835 828 823 803 761 661 654 RSL 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 RM 79 82 85 97 100 106 106 105 102 97 84 83 RS ORMTOU 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ORSTOU-A 9 10 10 11 12 12 12 12 12 11 10 10 713 743 764 872 902 955 947 941 918 870 755 747 Total Appendix B: Monthly Savings by Rate Class B-3 APPENDIX C ASSESSMENTS OF EFFECTIVE USEFUL LIFE FOR REFRIGERATORS AND FREEZERS This appendix presents and discusses the results of analyses used to derive effective useful lives for refrigerators and freezers. Section C.1 describes the analytical methods used. Section C.2 provides survival functions based on analysis of data extracted from the 2009 Residential Appliance Saturation Survey conducted in California. C.1 ANALYTICAL METHODS Determining the effective useful life of recycled refrigerators and freezers requires determining those same units’ remaining useful lives had they been left in service rather than recycled. Remaining useful life can be inferred using a survival function for refrigerators or freezers, where a survival function shows the fraction of installed measures still in place and operable as time passes. The analytical difficulty that arises in deriving a survival function for refrigerators and freezers is that the amount of data available is relatively limited. It can be assumed that 100% of the units are in place and operable when they are installed. Moreover, the retention rates for refrigerators and freezers are relatively high in the early years of their lives. Because of this, non-parametric methods of assessing survival functions are not appropriate. That is, non-parametric methods can give an accurate assessment of median survival time only if more than 50% of the measures are no longer in place and operable. With parametric methods for assessing survival times, a survival function is calculated using the available data and the calculated function is then used to project survival rates at future points in time. The difficulty with the parametric approach is that the high early retention rates for refrigerators and freezers mean that there is little information with which to distinguish between different functional forms for the survival function. Because of the limited time span that the collected data cover, a variety of survival functions that imply significantly different median lives can be fitted through the data.7 To overcome these difficulties, other assessments of survival functions for refrigerators and freezers were developed using data for households in California that were collected in the 2009 California Residential Appliance Saturation Survey. These data are used because they show both 7 For discussion of this problem, see Hahn, G.J. and Meeker, W.Q, Jr., “Pitfalls and Practical Considerations in Product Life Analysis—Part I: Basic Concepts and Dangers of Extrapolation”, Journal of Quality Technology, Vol. 14, July 1982, pp. 144-152. Appendix C C-1 Second Refrigerator Recycling Program: 2010 – NV Energy, Southern Nevada M&V Report May 2011 the age distribution of the existing stocks of refrigerators and freezers and also the numbers of refrigerators and freezers discarded within a year. The steps in the procedure for calculating the survival functions were as follows: Prepare data for calculation of hazard rate function Calculate hazard rate function Use hazard rate function to determine survival function Use survival function to develop life tables that show remaining useful lives for refrigerators and freezers at different ages Impute remaining useful lives for refrigerators and freezers recycled through NV Energy’s refrigerator recycling program An essential component in this analytical procedure is the calculation of the hazard rate function. A hazard function defines the probability that an item will fail in the next unit of time, given that it has survived to the present. The hazard rate at time t is the ratio of the number of units failing in that interval to the number surviving to that time: f(t) h(t) = 1-F(t) where h(t) is the hazard rate at time t; f(t) is the probability of failure during an increment of time at time t; and F(t) is the cumulative probability of failure up to time t. Once a hazard function is calculated, a corresponding survival function S(t) can be determined, where S(t) represents the percent surviving at time t.8 Two of the distributions commonly used for survival analysis are the exponential distribution and the Weibull distribution9. The probability density functions and associated hazard functions and survival functions for these distributions are shown in Table C-1. Table C-1. Hazard and Survival Functions for Exponential and Weibull Distributions Exponential Distribution f(t) = exp(-t) h(t) = S(t) = exp(-t) Probability Density Function Hazard Function Survival Function Weibull Distribution Probability Density Function Hazard Function Survival Function F(t) = t-1exp(-t) h(t) = t-1 S(t) = exp(-t) 8 Collette, D. Modeling Survival Data in Medical Research, Chapman & Hall, 1994, pp. 10-13. 9 Collette, ibid. Also see Kiefer, Nicholas “Economic Duration Data and Hazard Functions”, Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. XXVI, pp. 646-679, June 1988. Appendix C C-2 Second Refrigerator Recycling Program: 2010 – NV Energy, Southern Nevada M&V Report May 2011 As Table C-1 shows, the exponential distribution can be used to represent a hazard rate that is constant. The associated survival function is also exponential. However, the exponential distribution does not represent hazards that increase or decrease over time. Previous studies have shown that hazard rates for refrigerators and freezers do increase with the age of the units. Accordingly, the Weibull distribution was used to represent the hazard function and the survival function because it can accommodate hazard rates that differ with age. (Note that with the Weibull distribution, is termed as the scale parameter, while is termed as the shape parameter.) C.2 ANALYSIS OF EFFECTIVE USEFUL LIVES USING RASS DATA Alternative assessments of EULs for refrigerators and freezers were developed by using data for households from the 2009 Residential Appliance Saturation Survey (RASS) that was conducted in California. Respondents to this survey provided information about their ownership of refrigerators, about the ages of those appliances or equipment, about whether they had discarded a refrigerator or freezer during the past year, and about the age of the discarded refrigerator or freezer. The RASS data provided the information needed to develop calculations of hazard functions and survival functions for refrigerators and freezers. Table C-2 shows how data from the California RASS were used to calculate a hazard function for refrigerator discards. For this example, data for households in the service territory of Southern California Edison were used. Table C-2. Data Used for Calculation of Hazard Function for Refrigerator Example (1) Age of Refrigerator Less than two years 2 – 7 years 8 – 10 years 11 – 20 years More than 20 years (2) (5) (6) Percentage Annual of Discards Percentage Stock Calculated Annual Taken of Discards of Annual Percentage Out Taken Refrigerators Discards Discarded of Out of Stock Stock 912 2,492 1,214 828 142 (3) 32 87 42 149 60 (4) 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 18.0% 42.6% 34.6% 48.7% 43.3% 51.4% 49.0% 1.21% 1.70% 1.51% 9.26% 20.90% The data in Table C-2 were developed through the following steps. On the questionnaire used for the 2009 California RASS, respondents were asked to classify the ages of their refrigerators according to the age categories shown in Column (1). The stock of refrigerators in each age category, as determined from the weighted RASS data, is shown in Column (2). Appendix C C-3 Second Refrigerator Recycling Program: 2010 – NV Energy, Southern Nevada M&V Report May 2011 RASS respondents were asked if they had discarded a refrigerator in the previous year and, if so, to provide information on the age of the refrigerator discarded. Using the age data, the distribution of discards across the age categories in Column (1) could be determined. The annual number of discards by age category is reported in Column (3). Refrigerator discards for each age category as a percentage of the stock in a category are shown in Column (4). To determine the percentage of discards taken out of stock, survey information that was made available by KEMA was used. As part of their work in preparing a ninth-year retention study for SCE’s Residential Appliance Recycling Program (RARP), KEMA conducted a telephone survey of a sample of SCE customers who reported in the 2002 California RASS that they had discarded a refrigerator in the past year. In the KEMA survey, a respondent who reported that a refrigerator was discarded was asked several questions as to how the refrigerator was disposed of. For this study, a discarded refrigerator was assumed to be taken out of stock if one of the following conditions applied. If the discarded refrigerator was no longer in working condition; or If a respondent indicated that the refrigerator was recycled through a utility recycling program or was taken to a scrap dealer, recycler, or landfill. The percentages of discards taken out of stock that were calculated from the KEMA survey data are reported in Column (5) of Table 2. These percentages were applied to the percentages in Column (4) to arrive at the annual percentages of discards taken out of stock, as reported in Column (6). Inspection of the calculated hazard (removal/failure) rates for each age category in Table C-2 shows that the hazard rate is not constant across categories. This indicated that it was not warranted to assume that the survival function could be represented using the exponential distribution, since the hazard rate for an exponential survival function is constant. However, the Weibull distribution does allow for hazard rates that change over time, and the Weibull-based hazard function was therefore used as the functional form for calculating the hazard function for discarded refrigerators. The discard rates in Column (6) of Table 2 were then used to calculate a survival function for refrigerators. The power curve fitted to the hazard rate data in Table C-2 was: Hazard rate = h(t) = 0.00722Age0.8144 The R2 for this fit was 0.70. The parameters from this power curve fit to the hazard rate data implied the following parametrization of the Weibull function for the hazard function: Weibull hazard rate function = 0.0040 x 1.8144 x Age0.8144. The associated survival function is given as: Appendix C C-4 Second Refrigerator Recycling Program: 2010 – NV Energy, Southern Nevada M&V Report May 2011 Percent surviving at age t = S(t) = exp(-0.0040 x Age1.8144) This calculated survival function was used to generate the life table shown in Table C-3, which allows calculation of the remaining useful life for a refrigerator of any given age per usual lifetable methods. Table C-3. Life Table to Determine RULs for Refrigerators Age Column 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 Appendix C lx ndx Lx Column Column Column 2 3 4 100,000 397 99,603 99,603 993 98,610 98,610 1,489 97,121 97,121 1,925 95,197 95,197 2,310 92,886 92,886 2,649 90,237 90,237 2,943 87,295 87,295 3,192 84,102 84,102 3,399 80,704 80,704 3,564 77,140 77,140 3,689 73,451 73,451 3,775 69,676 69,676 3,826 65,850 65,850 3,843 62,007 62,007 3,829 58,179 58,179 3,786 54,393 54,393 3,718 50,675 50,675 3,628 47,047 47,047 3,518 43,529 43,529 3,392 40,137 40,137 3,252 36,885 36,885 3,102 33,784 33,784 2,943 30,840 30,840 2,779 28,061 28,061 2,612 25,449 25,449 2,443 23,006 23,006 2,275 20,731 20,731 2,110 18,621 18,621 1,948 16,673 16,673 1,791 14,882 14,882 1,640 13,241 13,241 1,496 11,745 11,745 1,359 10,386 10,386 1,230 9,156 9,156 1,109 8,047 8,047 996 7,051 7,051 891 6,160 Tx Column 5 1,819,012 1,719,409 1,620,799 1,523,677 1,428,481 1,335,595 1,245,358 1,158,063 1,073,960 993,257 916,117 842,665 772,989 707,139 645,131 586,953 532,560 481,885 434,838 391,309 351,171 314,286 280,503 249,662 221,601 196,152 173,146 152,415 133,795 117,122 102,240 88,999 77,254 66,868 57,711 49,664 42,613 Expected RUL Column 6 18.19 17.26 16.44 15.69 15.01 14.38 13.80 13.27 12.77 12.31 11.88 11.47 11.09 10.74 10.40 10.09 9.79 9.51 9.24 8.99 8.75 8.52 8.30 8.10 7.90 7.71 7.53 7.35 7.19 7.02 6.87 6.72 6.58 6.44 6.30 6.17 6.04 C-5 Second Refrigerator Recycling Program: 2010 – NV Energy, Southern Nevada M&V Report May 2011 Age Column 1 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 lx ndx Lx Column Column Column 2 3 4 6,160 795 5,365 5,365 706 4,658 4,658 625 4,033 4,033 552 3,481 3,481 485 2,996 2,996 425 2,571 2,571 371 2,200 2,200 323 1,877 1,877 280 1,596 1,596 242 1,354 1,354 209 1,145 1,145 179 966 966 154 812 812 131 681 681 112 570 570 95 475 475 80 395 395 67 327 327 57 271 271 47 223 223 40 184 184 33 150 150 27 123 123 123 - Tx Column 5 36,454 31,089 26,431 22,398 18,916 15,920 13,349 11,149 9,273 7,676 6,322 5,177 4,211 3,399 2,718 2,148 1,673 1,278 951 680 457 274 123 - Expected RUL Column 6 5.92 5.80 5.67 5.55 5.43 5.31 5.19 5.07 4.94 4.81 4.67 4.52 4.36 4.18 3.99 3.77 3.52 3.24 2.90 2.51 2.05 1.49 0.82 For each refrigerator recycled through NV Energy’s program, there is information on the year the unit was built. Thus, the age can be determined for each unit recycled during 2010. Using this age, the associated RUL for the unit could be determined from Table C-3. For example, a refrigerator that was 13 years old when recycled in 2010 would have an expected remaining useful life (RUL) of 10.74 years. Table C-4 shows the assigned RULs for all refrigerators recycled in southern Nevada through NV Energy’s program. Appendix C C-6 Second Refrigerator Recycling Program: 2010 – NV Energy, Southern Nevada M&V Report May 2011 Table C-4. Expected RULs for Refrigerators Recycled in 2010 in Southern Nevada Year Recycled Refrigerator Was Built 1950 1952 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 Appendix C Number of Units Recycled 1 3 4 3 3 4 2 3 3 2 2 4 11 2 3 5 9 7 6 12 3 10 56 38 48 25 79 111 95 114 125 142 133 158 216 226 291 Age of Recycled Unit 60 58 56 55 54 53 52 51 50 48 47 46 45 44 43 42 41 40 39 38 37 36 35 34 33 32 31 30 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 Expected RUL 1.49 2.51 2.90 3.24 3.52 3.77 3.99 4.18 4.52 4.67 4.81 4.94 5.07 5.19 5.31 5.43 5.55 5.67 5.80 5.92 6.04 6.17 6.30 6.44 6.58 6.72 6.87 7.02 7.19 7.35 7.53 7.71 7.90 8.10 8.30 8.52 C-7 Second Refrigerator Recycling Program: 2010 – NV Energy, Southern Nevada M&V Report May 2011 Year Recycled Refrigerator Was Built 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Number of Units Recycled 276 189 224 524 284 166 261 278 656 239 267 204 138 159 97 77 41 22 20 4 Age of Recycled Unit 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Expected RUL 8.75 8.99 9.24 9.51 9.79 10.09 10.40 10.74 11.09 11.47 11.88 12.31 12.77 13.27 13.80 14.38 15.01 15.69 16.44 17.26 Using the data shown in Table C-4, the mean RUL for refrigerators recycled in southern Nevada is calculated to be 9.76 years. Similar procedures were applied to calculate mean RULs for freezers recycled in southern Nevada and for refrigerators and freezers recycled in southern Nevada. The various mean RULs are shown in Table C-5. Table C-5. Calculated Mean RULs for Refrigerators and Freezers Recycled through NV Energy’s Program in Southern and Northern Nevada in 2010 Using Survivor Function Calculated from 2009 RASS Data for SCE Type of Appliance Recycled Refrigerators Freezers Mean RUL by Service Territory Southern Nevada Northern Nevada 9.76 years 8.74 years 10.21 years 9.36 years The mean RULs shown in Table C-5 were calculated based on a survival function analysis that used data for households in the service territory of Southern California Edison. To assess the sensitivity of these results to the calculated survivor function, data from the 2009 RASS for California for SCE, PG&E, SDG&E and LADWP were combined to develop the survivor Appendix C C-8 Second Refrigerator Recycling Program: 2010 – NV Energy, Southern Nevada M&V Report May 2011 function used to calculate RULs. Table C-6 shows the calculated mean RULs when the survivor functions estimated from the combined California RASS data are used. Table C-6. Calculated Mean RULs for Refrigerators and Freezers Recycled through NV Energy’s Program in Southern and Northern Nevada in 2010 Using Survivor Function Calculated from Combined 2009 RASS Data for SCE, PG&E, SDG&E, and LADWP Type of Appliance Recycled Refrigerators Freezers Mean RUL by Service Territory Southern Nevada Northern Nevada 11.93 10.86 11.82 10.86 Tables C-5 and C-6 show that the mean RULs calculated for refrigerators and freezers through this analysis are longer than eight years. This indicates that using an effective useful life of eight years for recycled refrigerators and freezers would be a conservative assessment of the remaining useful life. Appendix C C-9