Progress Report of the Research 'Assessment of the October 24th 2008 Flood in Wadi Doan, Hadhramout towards Realization of IWRM' Prepared By: Eng. Abdulmoghni A. Alga'fari, Supervised by: Dr. Abdullah A. Noman & Dr. Alkhateeb Al-kebsi, Submitted to Water and Environment Center, Sana'a University, Yemen February, 2014 1 Table of Contents 1-ABSTRACT.............................. ................................................................................................................ 3 2-INTRODUCTION.............. ......................................................................................................................... 3 2.1 BACKGROUND ....................................................................................................................................... 3 2.2 STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM ..................................................................................................................... 4 2.3 THE OBJECTIVES OF RESEARCH ..................................................................................................................... 4 3-LITERATURE REVIEW (OUTLINE).............................. ................................................................................... 5 3.1 GENERAL ............................................................................................................................................ 5 3.2 SITE ACCESS & TOPOGRAPHY ...................................................................................................................... 5 3.3 WADI HADHRAMOUT TRIBUTARIES FLOWS ....................................................................................................... 5 3.4 EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS ......................................................................................................................... 6 3.4.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 6 3.4.2 Early Warning Systems used for the October 24th 2008 Flood ............................................................... 6 3.5 TRADITIONAL FLOOD MANAGEMENT OPTIONS ................................................................................................... 6 3.6 FLOOD REDUCE SYSTEMS........................................................................................................................... 6 3.7 DAMAGE AND LOSS ASSESSMENT IN WADI HADHRAMOUT...................................................................................... 7 3.7.1 Damages: ................................................................................................................................... 7 3.7.2 Spatial Distribution of the Damages to Housing: ................................................................................ 7 3.8 SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACT ......................................................................................................................... 7 4-RESEARCH METHODOLOGY.............................. ......................................................................................... 8 4.1 OVERALL RESEARCH APPROACH ................................................................................................................... 8 4.2 HYDROLOGICAL INVESTIGATION AND FIELD SURVEY .............................................................................................. 9 4.3.1 Description of the Program ............................................................................................................ 9 4.3.2 Soil Conservation Service (SCS) Based application of WMS ................................................................... 9 4.4.1 DESCRIPTION OF THE PROGRAM............................................................................................................... 10 4.4.2 Manning Equation Based Application of the FlowMaster ................................................................... 10 4.5 STAKEHOLDERS’ CONSULTATIONS/INTERVIEWS................................................................................................. 10 5-RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS..................................................................................................................... 11 5.1 RAINFALL DEPTHS CAUSED 2008 FLOOD IN THE STUDY AREA ................................................................................ 11 5.2 ESTIMATION OF OBSERVED FLOOD .............................................................................................................. 11 5.2.1 Using of Manning Method Based on FlowMaster Program ................................................................. 11 5.2.2 Using of Soil Conservation Service (SCS) .......................................................................................... 12 5.3 PREDICTION OF DESIGN PEAK FLOOD............................................................................................................ 13 5.4 FLOODPLAIN DELINEATION ....................................................................................................................... 13 5.5 ESTIMATION OF RUNOFF VOLUME............................................................................................................... 15 5.6 NATURAL REASONS AND MANMADE ACTIVITIES CAUSED THE 2008 FLOOD ................................................................. 15 5.7 INTEGRATED FLOOD MANAGEMENT WITHIN THE CONTEXT OF IWRM ....................................................................... 15 5.8 SOCIO- ECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL SITUATION IN WADI DOAN ....................................................................... 16 5.9 INTERVIEWS AND CONSULTATIONS .............................................................................................................. 16 6-CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS............................ ....................................................................... 18 6.1 CONCLUSIONS ..................................................................................................................................... 18 6.2 RECOMMENDATIONS ............................................................................................................................. 18 7-REFERENCES……………………….. .................................................................................................................. 19 2 1- ABSTRACT Yemen is a disaster prone country that faces a number of natural hazards every year, the most important ones being flash floods, the latest extremist flash flood; which occurred on October 24th 2008; hit the governorates of Hadhramout and Al-Mahra after 30 hours resulting in total rainfall of almost 91 mm caused destruction and damage of public infrastructures and private properties. Integrated Flood Management (IFM) within the context of Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) approach has been followed to realize the objectives of this research, which aims to assess the natural reasons and manmade activities caused the October 24th floods, how much water discharged in Wadi Doan, which was selected as case study, What are the structural measures and socioeconomic considerations to be undertaken to reduce and manage such floods and what are the socioeconomic and environmental impacts raised by the flood. The results of this research were, the observed maximum flood at the outlet of the Wadi Doan is 3850.2 m3/s which conforms to frequency of 50 years, and runoff magnitude is 164.65 million m3. The socioeconomic impacts resulted of the flood were damages to the existing water diversion structures and residential buildings, lashing of agricultural lands and crops, uprooting of palm trees and Loss to beekeeping properties. The conclusion of this research, the October 24th 2008 flood occurred due to the 2008 deep depression, large hilly catchment area, limited covered vegetation, tributaries steep slopes, growth of prosopis trees in the main stream, lack of protected flood structures, and random buildings of residential houses on the banks of the main streams. To reduce flood impacts and manage flood water in an integrated approach, the research suggests, construction of check dams, stopping farmers of cultivating the flood streams, activating farmers of cultivating the arable lands with introduction of the agricultural services based on land use program and involving community people in flood reduction and management actions through formation of WUGs/WUAs and IC in the Wadi. 1- INTRODUCTION 2.1 Background Yemen is a disaster prone country that faces a number of natural hazards every year, the most important ones being flash floods, earthquake, and land- or rockslides. According to the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) approximately 100,000 people are affected annually by disasters triggered by natural hazards in Yemen. The 2008 Yemen flash floods were caused by the 2008 Yemen Cyclone, hit the governorates of Hadhramout and Al-Mahra after 30 hours resulting in total rainfall of almost 91 mm caused destruction and damage of public infrastructures such as roads, electricity network, water supplies and others. Wadi Hadhramout region was the worst off area as a result of the disaster, having sustained 67.5% of the total damage and losses (WB, et al., 2009). However, many tributary Wadis in Wadi Hadhramout such as Wadi Idem, Wadi Doan, Wadi Alain, Wadi Sar,Wadi Shaheer…etc. were damaged of their water diversion structures , lashing of agricultural lands and crops, uprooting of palm trees and damaged of public infrastructures such as roads, electricity network, water supplies and destroying of mud buildings. In this research, it was selected Wadi Doan as case study to represent the other tributary Wadis in Wadi Hadhramout because it is considered to be the most important and famous of all and the largest tributary Wadis of Hadhramout, has the largest population, and exposed to significant damage of its infrastructure through the last flood. Wadi Doan is located in the western south of Wadi Hadhramout. It runs from the south to the north. Wadi Doan is the place; where for generations of beekeepers have been perfecting their craft for at least a millennium. Combined with the dry climate and short flowering season of local plants. Wadi Doan is accessed through the asphalt road which linked Seiyun with Al-Mukalla city of distance 76 3 km of Seiyun city passing of the historical Shibam city towards the western south part until Hawrah district, and then the road runs in the south towards Wadi Doan. The main sub Wadis in Wadi Doan are Wadi Laiman, Wadi Laiser and Hajrain. To realize the objectives of this research, Integrated Flood Management (IFM), has been applied to integrate land and water resources development in the Wadi, within the context of Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) with a view to maximizing the efficient use of flood plains and minimizing loss to life. In this study the catchment area of wadi Doan is considered as integrated system, which generates floods hence the hydrological parameters for the Wadi; probable maximum Discharge (PMD), yearly runoff, land use patterns have been studied. The natural reasons and manmade (socioeconomic) activities that caused the October 2008 flood have been determined. The structural measures, and nonstructural and socioeconomic considerations to be undertaken to reduce and manage such floods in the Wadi have been identified. This research focused on the field investigation/observation, review the previous literature pertaining of the study area and analysis of obtained data. A qualitative approach, through the field investigation and discussion sessions with the flood affected people and relevant sectors, has been used for understanding the natural reasons that caused the problem, identifying the socioeconomic and environmental impacts raised by the flood and identifying the structural measures and socioeconomic considerations to be undertaken within the context of IWRM to reduce the magnitudes of the damages and losses of such floods and to sustainably exploit the floods water for multipurpose. 2.2 Statement of the Problem The October, 24th floods hit the governorates of Hadhramout and Al-Mahra after 30 hours resulting in total rainfall of almost 91 mm (versus 5-6 mm in normal periods), unleashed massive floods and swept through these areas causing huge destruction and causalities. Heavy floods caused destruction and damage of public infrastructures such as roads, electricity network, water supplies and others. Many tributary wadis in Wadi Hadhramout such as Wadi Idem, Wadi Doan, Wadi Alain, Wadi Sheer ,…etc. were damaged of their water diversion structures, lashing of agricultural lands and crops, uprooting of Palm trees and damaged of public infrastructures such as roads, electricity network, water supplies and others. On the other hand there is insufficient information about the natural reasons and manmade activities that caused the floods and how much water discharged from the tributary Wadis in addition to the poor flood management in the Wadis. 2.3 The Objectives of Research The research aim to assess the natural reasons and manmade (socio economic) activities caused the October 24th flood in the study area. Determine the flood magnitude at the outlet of study area and calculate the flood return periods (frequencies). To find the different kind of suitable structural measures to be undertaken to reduce and manage such flood impacts in the study area. Identify the nonstructural and socioeconomic considerations within the context of IWRM approach to be undertaken to mitigate such flood impacts. 4 2- LITERATURE REVIEW (Outline) 3.1 General Wadi Hadhramout exposed for many historical high floods in the year 1977, 19981, 1989, 1992, 1996 (Komex, 2002) and 2008, floods occur during monsoon season leading to loss of productive agricultural lands along the Wadis, increasing sedimentation and significant widening of downstream Wadi bed (MWE, 2006) the Severe highest flood was in 2008 in Wadi Hadhramout where many tributary Wadis in Wadi Hadhramout such as Wadi Idem, Wadi Doan, Wadi Alain, Wadi Sar, Wadi Shheer,…etc. were damaged of their water diversion structures, lashing of agricultural lands and crops, uprooting of Palm trees and damaged of public infrastructures such as roads, electricity network, water supplies and destroying of mud buildings. There are several tributary Wadis in Hadhramout such as Wadi Doan, Alain and Amad etc. Doan is considered to be the most important and famous of all as there are many attractive villages along both banks of the Wadi, which are considered as excellent examples means city in old Yemenite language. It is one of the most beautiful Yemeni villages and the most beautiful village in Hadhramout. It is located in the western part of Wadi Hadhramout, it runs from the south to the north and it is bounded by Wadi Alain from the east and Wadi Amad from the west. 3.2 Site Access & Topography Wadi Doan is located on the western side of the main extended Wadi Hadhramout between 835.400 km to 898.220 km Easting and 1630.650 to 1723.670 km Northing. It runs from the south to the north. Wadi Doan is the place, where for generations of beekeepers have been perfecting their craft for at least a millennium. Combined with the dry climate and short flowering season of local plants. Wadi Doan is accessed through the asphalt road which linked Seiyun with Al-Mukalla city of distance 76 km of Seiyun city passing of the historical Shibam city towards the western south part until Hawrah district, then the road runs in the south towards Wadi Doan. Wadi Doan’s catchment area is located in a hilly region, and it has a fan shape in the high parts, the catchment boundary areas consist of slightly sloped bared hills, small and mid-tributaries are running through the hills to consist the main longest stream for 102.780 km and general slope of 6 % , with distance to the site of selected location at Al-Mashhad Area, at coordinates 854.603 km Easting And 1723.544 km Northing, where this location is the narrowest location in the downstream of Wadi outlet. 3.3 Wadi Hadhramout Tributaries Flows In the upstream section of Wadi Hadhramout, which is located western of wadis Doan and Idem outlets, contributes as average four floods each year, two of which at least quiet magnitude which continue in flowing to reach the mid of the sub wadis and rarely reach the main wadi of Hadhramout. In irregular seasons contributes as average one flood each year. The plenty of these floods due to the following reasons:- widen of the sub catchments areas, narrow of the water streams which is higher in slopes, small agricultural possessions and lack of the water structures (Balatif, 2002). The reasons of floods occurrence in Wadi Hadhramout due to the Natural reasons, which involve Topographical Factors ( larger hilly catchment areas, tributaries steep slopes) and Climatic Factors (Rainfall storms Characteristics; high intensity in short duration, deep depression), Environmental reasons (predominant soil and vegetation characteristics in the catchments areas of the wadis and growth of trees of prosopis species (mesquite trees) in the main stream of the wadis which formed hindering barriers of the runoff led to water to be accumulated and overflow agricultural and 5 residence areas) and Human made activities (random buildings of residential houses on the edges of the main streams and sometimes in the streams) (Shamsheir, 2009). 3.4 Early Warning Systems 3.4.1 Introduction Early warning systems are an important means to reduce disaster losses. Damage caused by a disaster can be effectively contained if disaster warning can be given and communicated to disaster management departments, decision making officials and to all those who might be affected by a coming disaster to ensure that everyone is aware of and prepared for it (Wang et al., 2003 in Noman, et al, 2007). 3.4.2 Early Warning Systems used for the October 24th 2008 Flood The Government of Yemen used local and national radio and TV warnings to relay bulletins from the Civil Aviation and Meteorological Authority. The bulletins warned about possible storm but the intensity and extent of flash flood was not predicted. No other formal mechanism of early warning and evacuation at the community level was used. Many affected areas did not receive a timely warning. The field visits revealed that people warned each other informally via gunshots and mobile phones. Flood-receiving areas warned the settlements situated downstream about the possibility of flood in next few hours. In many communities in Wadi Hadhramout, a single mobile call received one or two hours before the flash flood saved hundreds of lives (WB, et al., 2009). 3.5 Traditional Flood Management Options Traditionally, flood management has essentially been problem driven: usually after a severe flood a project would be quickly implemented; the problem and its solution seeming self-evident without giving any thought to the impact such solutions would have on upstream and downstream areas. Thus, flood management practices have largely focused on reducing flooding and reducing the susceptibility to flood damage through a variety of interventions. There are a number of different ways to categorize such flood management interventions. They can be structural and non-structural; physical and institutional; implemented before, during and after the flood; etc., and these categorizations overlap. 3.6 Flood Reduce Systems Reduction of flash floods is achieved either by detention (upstream solutions) or diversion (downstream solutions) approaches. Detention depends on the construction of storage reservoirs that are capable of storing (most of) the water issuing from a major flood event, while the diversion approach entails the direction of flood waters through a safe passage away from areas to be protected (SSRDP, 2006). In Wadi Hadhramout the rainfall is rarely and only for short time but of high intensity which causes of floods. Therefore the running water in streams has not enough time for percolation and to recharge the groundwater. Thus most of the rainfall water is lost without use. Therefore it is important to minimise the risks of these floods and to benefit from its water. It is then very essential to find reasonable solutions and low cost technology to gain and use the rainfall and flood water according to the environmental and climatic conditions. Especially that the region will be having rainfall potentials in the future as it is expected according to many studies regarding the effect of climate change on the region of Hadhramout (Bahumaid, 2013). Convenient simple and cheap management 6 systems to reduce floods can be described as the following:- Designing incomplete low rocky dams, Using oqum systems and Plants Growing. 3.7 Damage and Loss Assessment in Wadi Hadhramout 3.7.1 Damages: The housing damage that occurred due to Tropical Storm 3B can be attributed to a combination of excessive rain and flooding. A total of 2,826 houses were totally destroyed. These include 1,483 houses in Wadi Hadhramout, an estimated 154 houses in Hadhramout Sahel 19, and 45 houses and 1,164 huts in Al-Mahara Governorate. Some 3,679 houses were partially damaged in both Hadhramout and Al-Mahara Governorates. A large proportion of the structure suffered partial damages in the forms of cracks and leaks. As a result, a significant number of persons were displaced, including 23,382 persons (4,129 households) in Wadi Hadhramout alone. The total value of damage to shelter in both Governorates is estimated at YR 32,348.6 million (US$ 161.7 million). 3.7.2 Spatial Distribution of the Damages to Housing: In Wadi Hadhramout, most of the structures that sustained damages were made of traditional mud bricks with stone foundations. The damages that occurred to the structures were caused by a combination of excessive rain and flooding. For example, in districts like Sah and Tarim, the villages that were impacted included housing structures that collapsed to excessive rain and water damages from floods that rose to close to 5 ft in height. The traditional houses built of mud could not sustain prolonged exposure to water and collapsed after the water level exceeded the height of their stone foundation, which therefore eroded the mud brick construction. The districts in Wadi Hadhramout that sustained extensive damages were: Sah, Tarim, Al Qatn, Hawra/Wadi Al-Ayn, Shibam, AlSoum and Seiyun. 3.8 Socio-Economic Impact The socio-economic impact of floods in the agricultural and fisheries subsectors can be classified into four broad categories: food supply, employment, income and availability of agricultural inputs. Food supply in Wadi Hadhramout will decline if the eroded soil, damaged irrigation infrastructure and damaged irrigation network are not repaired quickly. This will particularly reduce the food for flood affected farming households. However, this is likely to have a minimal impact on the national food security since the country depends heavily on food imports even in normal times. Before the floods, unemployment in the country was close to 16%. Following the floods, agricultural production, agro-industrial production and activities related to commerce in the rural areas in Hadhramout and Al-Mahara Governorates are likely to decline. This will increase unemployment even further. This is likely to reduce household income as well as rural livelihood opportunities. Due to extensive damage to houses due to floods, many of these households lost stocked seeds, fertilizer and other agricultural inputs. This is likely to increase cost of production for crops in the forthcoming season. The main impact of the disaster (due to an increase in unemployment, decrease in household income and reduction in livelihood opportunities) will be to increase rural poverty. The overall poverty rate is 35% in Yemen, which encompasses a 40% poverty rate in rural areas and 21% in urban areas. Clearly, rural poverty is twice as much as urban poverty. Floods are likely to increase rural poverty even higher than 40%, particularly in Hadhramout and Al-Mahara Governorates. This is typical of the poverty impact on any disaster in terms of production loss, reduced labor demand, and reduced family income. In order to minimize the adverse impact on poverty, the Government of Yemen must 7 put in place safety-net, recovery and reconstruction programs in the flood affected areas as soon as possible. Finally, the flood will also have an adverse impact on the environment due to increased soil erosion, soil contamination, dead animals and loss of vegetation, particularly damage to the perennial fruit trees. The rural population will face the serious consequences of adverse environmental impact on top of the macroeconomic and the socio-economic impact of floods (WB, et al., 2009). 3- RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 4.1 Overall Research Approach Integrated Flood Management (IFM) integrates land and water resources development in a basin, within the context of Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM), with a view to maximizing the efficient use of flood plains and minimizing loss to life. Thus, occasional flood losses can be accepted in favor of a long-term increase in the efficient use of flood plains. Integrated Water Resources Management, which, as defined by the Global Water Partnership (GWP), is “a process which promotes the coordinated management and development of water, land and related resources, in order to maximize the resultant economic and social welfare in an equitable manner without compromising the sustainability of vital ecosystems”, is based on the recognition that a single intervention has implications for the system as a whole. More positively, integrating management means multiple benefits may be achieved from a single intervention. For flood management to be carried out within the context of IWRM as shown in Figure 4.4, the Wadi Catchment should be considered as integrated systems. Socio-economic activities, land-use patterns, hydro-morphological processes, etc., need to be recognized as constituent parts of these systems. The linkages between various relevant sectors become very important A participatory and transparent approach which includes a representative range of stakeholders in the decision making process is another key component of IFM. Therefore, an integrated flood management plan should address the following five key elements that would seem to follow logically for managing floods in the context of an IWRM approach: Manage the water cycle as a whole; Integrate land and water management; Adopt a best mix of strategies; Ensure a participatory approach; Adopt integrated hazard management approaches In view of the above a qualitative approach, through the field investigation and discussion sessions with the affected people and relevant sectors , has been used as the emphasis of the research is put on understanding of natural reasons and manmade activities which caused the October 24th 2008 Flood and it was selected Wadi Doan as a case study because it is considered one of the most important Tributary Wadis in Wadi Hadhramout, the objective of this investigation to study the hydrological characteristics of the Catchment of the Wadi (land use, water divide line, soil group, drainage patterns, the observed maximum flood, the probable maximum discharges of the floods for the designed return periods of Q25, Q50 and Q100 and yearly runoff ). Socioeconomic and environmental situation resulted after the flood has been assessed based on the consultations with the flood affected people and the relevant sectors, and also based on quotation of the previous studies targeted this aspect. To reduce and manage the floods in the Wadi, suitable structures and socioeconomic activities have been suggested. Desk work has been carried out to analyze the data collected from the field investigation and literature review and processed by application of the software Watershed Modeling System (WMS) 8 to assist in calculation of the hydrological parameters, observed discharges based on the maximum daily rainfall volume, and calculation of the designed return periods. The FlowMaster Program also has been used to calculate the observed discharge through cross section was surveyed at the outlet of the Wadi. 4.2 Hydrological Investigation and Field Survey Through the field investigation in Wadi Doan, and consultation with area people it was selected the narrowest location at the outlet of the Wadi to carry out cross section survey by using total station device to know the cross section area, of which the flood from the whole tributaries of Wadi Doan was discharged, the selected location was at Al-Mashhad area, at coordinates 855.277 km Easting and 1723.751 km Northing, where the flood level at this location was observed over the Wadi banks as soil erosion and flood carry up bed coarse and gravels to highest level where it was marked to be the highest flood level had been witnessed by the farmers and the area people as shown in the photos No. A and B whereas photos No. C and D show the erosion occurred of the main stream due to the 2008 flood. In addition to the land use pattern of the catchment area of Wadi Doan was investigated and a map to determine the land use patterns for agricultural and residential use has been drawn. 4.3 Watershed Modeling System Program Application (WMS) 4.3.1 Description of the Program WMS is a comprehensive environment for hydrologic analysis. It was developed by the Environmental Modeling Research Laboratory of Brigham Young University in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Waterways Experiment Station. With version 7.1 there is a free-ware version which allows you to use the graphical user interface to set up any of the supported hydrologic models (an image can be placed in the background for presentation). A license must be purchased in order to use digital elevation, land use, and other data to automate the development of hydrologic models. Once boundaries have been created, geometric attributes such as area, slope and runoff distances can be computed automatically. A topological tree representation of the watershed is created, and all data necessary to define hydrologic model can be entered by selecting basins and outlet points. All of the former models (HEC-1, TR-55, TR-20, Rational, and NFF) are still supported with version 7.1, with the additions of a complete HMS (the replacement to HEC-1) interface. Many display options are provided to aid in modeling and understanding the drainage characteristics of terrain surfaces. WMS is organized into eight modules; four of which was used in this research which are Map Module to create data layers, Drainage and Terrain Modules to delineate catchment area by using digital elevation model and calculate of hydrological parameters, and Hydrologic Module to calculate the peak flow through using the Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC1) Model. It was used to delineate the catchment area of the study area both topographical maps that scale 1:100000 and Digital Elevation Model (DEM) which was downloaded from the internet. 4.3.2 Soil Conservation Service (SCS) Based application of WMS The SCS curve number method assumes that for any storm rainfall, there will be an initial loss Ia, before any runoff occurs. There will also be an increasing proportional runoff from any subsequent rainfall as the soil water storage capacity is filled, and infiltration capacity decreases, with continuation of rainfall. Thus the volume of runoff Q depends on the volume of rainfall P, and the volume of the storage within the soil available for retention of rainfall. The actual retention during any storm, F, is the difference of volumes of rainfall and runoff. This may be expressed as: F/S = Q/ (P-Ia) (1) 9 Where S is the potential maximum retention for any soil. The actual retention when initial abstraction is considered is: F = (P-Ia) – Q (2) When the two equations above are combined: ((P-Ia) - Q) / S = Q / (P – Ia) (3) Q = (P – Ia) ^ 2 / ((P – Ia) + S) (4) The initial abstraction is a function of land use, the agriculture practice which affects interception, and also the infiltration, depression and antecedent moisture state of the catchment. An empirical relationship is proposed by the SCS where Ia is estimated from the maximum water storage potential of the soil of the soil by: Ia = 0.2 * S (5) Substituting the above value of Ia in equation (4) Q = (P – 0.2*s) ^2 / (P + 0.8 S) (6) Estimation of the soil storage potential for any catchment i.e. the value for S is accomplished through the series of empirical curve numbers, i.e. CN where the storage is: S = ((1000 / CN) – 10)) * 25.4 (7) CN is an empirical function of all the factors affecting initial losses and runoff volume, including surface physical characteristics of the catchment area, land use, and antecedent rainfall conditions. 4.4 FlowMaster Program Application 4.4.1 Description of the Program FlowMaster is an easy-to-use program that helps civil engineers with the hydraulics design and analysis of pipes, ditches, open channels, and more. it computes flows and pressures based on wellknown formulas such as Darcy-Weisbach (Colebrook-White), Hazen-Williams, Kutter's, and Manning's. The program's flexibility allows you to choose an unknown variable, then automatically compute the solution after you enter known parameters. FlowMaster also calculates rating tables, and plots curves and cross sections, copy it to the Windows clipboard, save it to a file, or print it on any standard printer. 4.4.2 Manning Equation Based Application of the FlowMaster In the case of the absence of any stream-flow observations, flood magnitudes can generally be estimated after the event from peak flood marks using slope-area method, or, empirical methods can be used in determining the observed flood using the measured rainfall observations. in this research it was used the popular Manning’s Formula which derived from The Slope-Area Method that is based on the cross-sectional area of the Wadi at the crossing, its water surface or bed slope, roughness characteristics of the Wadi and the historic high flood levels (high flood marks) obtained from field investigations. These data are applied for the very popular Manning’s Formula to estimate the observed Floods upon using the FlowMaster software program. 4.5 Stakeholders’ Consultations/Interviews To implicate the principles of IWRM to realize the objectives of this research a participatory approach has been taken in consideration during the field work so several consultation sessions have been conducted with the flood affected people, farmers and residents at AL Mashhad Village which located downstream of Wadi Doan and also at Al-Hujrain village which located at the mid of the catchment area of Wadi Doan the purpose of these consultation seasons was to know their points of view, expectations and concerns regarding, the flood damages, impacts which occurred for their properties /assets and to know how to mitigate and sustainably manage such floods in the future, The 10 important questions which have been asked to the affected people, farmers and local people as the following: • Have you witnessed a significant flood like 2008 flood in your life? • What are the reasons led to occur such 2008 flood in the Area? • What are the damages occurred to your property as a result of the 2008 flood? • What are your suggestions about the suitable solutions to avoid/mitigate the damage/losses of such floods in the future? • How to exploit flood waters in such manner lead to realize a sustainable managing of water resources in the area? Also consultation sessions have been conducted with the relevant sectors as Seiyun Agricultural Office, Groundwater and Soil Conservation Project and National Water Resources Authority to know their points of views/concerns and suggestions concerning how to reduce and mange such these floods in the future. And also to know the institutional qualified capacity of their sectors to prepare studies researches and plans to mitigated and manage such flash floods occurred in Wadi Hadhramout. 4- Results and Discussions 5.1 Rainfall Depths Caused 2008 Flood in The Study Area The study area was subjected to heavy storms during 22nd, 23th and 24th of October-2008 caused by the deep depression ARB 02/2008. The data of rainfall storm were collected from the nearby rainfall stations, as shown previously in section 2.6, Table 2.4, which appears the maximum rainfall intensity in the most stations was in the day 24th that’s mean the maximum rainfall intensity is the main reason for flash floods which ranges between 11 mm at Tarim city (Doan station) to 75.5 mm at Doan area (Doan station) and accordingly the maximum rainfall Intensity which represent Wadi Doan is 75 mm. whereas 47.6 mm, was the maximum rainfall intensity that occurred on 24th of October which was recorded by Seiyun-Airport station where Seiyun station is the nearest rainfall station to Wadi Doan which has long rainfall records. Unfortunately there is insufficient information about surface flows in the Wadi Hadhramout because of lack of flow measures stations. In 1989, 10 stations installed by Sir M. MacDonald & Partners in 1985 were lost in one flood season, and only one has been rehabilitated at Tarim in 2002. 5.2 Estimation of Observed Flood 5.2.1 Using of Manning Method Based on FlowMaster Program The estimation of observed flood is conducted based on two methods, the first method, is using of Manning Equation method through application of the FlowMaster program based on cross section data of the Wadi outlet, through entering of the survey data of the cross section in the FlowMaster program. This program used the Manning’s Formula, which is Qmax= A×V (m3/s), Where V= (1/n) R^2/3 X S^1\2 (m/s), V= Velocity (m/s), R= A/P (m), R=Hydraulic Radius (m), A= Flow Area (m2), P= the Wetted Perimeter (m), S= Wadi slope, n= Roughness Coefficient. The result of this estimation is shown in the Table 1.1 11 Table 1.1 Estimation Results of Observed Floods Wadi Name Water Elevation (m) Roughness Coefficient Wadi Slope % Flow Area (m2) Observed Floods (m3/s) Wadi Doan 5.35 0.0385 0.5 865.01 3850.2 5.2.2 Using of Soil Conservation Service (SCS) The second method is using SCS Equation through application of the Watershed Modeling System based on the maximum daily rainfall volume; which caused the flood. By using of the Digital Elevation Model, the catchment area of Wadi Doan has been divided to seven sub catchment areas and the October 2008 observed flood hydrographs at the outlets of the sub catchment areas have been drawn as shown in Figures (1.1), with taken in consideration the hydrological conditions of each sub catchment area. The flood magnitude of each sub catchment area is calculated as shown in Table (1.2). The catchment area has been divided to several sub catchment areas to easily control the flood at each area through suggestion of construction of storage or / and diversion works. Figure 1.1Flood Hydrographs of the Sub-Catchment Areas Table 1.2 Flood Magnitude at each sub Catchment Area NO 1B 2B 3B 4B 5B 6B 7B Total B Coordinates (m) X=854603 , Y=1723544 X=856799 , Y=1688055 X=855223 , Y=1669520 X=855692 , Y=1669352 X=857435 , Y=1688049 X=868987 , Y=1676782 X=868274 , Y=1676686 X=854603 , Y=1723544 Sub Catchment Area (Km2) 795.9 319.26 663.09 385.45 181.02 338.29 487.40 3170.41 12 Flood Magnitude (m3/s) 713.29 387.82 747.3 430.45 220.34 391.75 528.73 3262.49 5.3 Prediction of Design Peak Flood The initial abstraction in the Wadi was found to be 11.2 mm. and accordingly this value should be fulfilled and subtracted from first values of the rainfall storms. The Intensity, Duration and Frequency (IDF) curves of nearest station (Seiyun station) was used for calculating the effective rainfall caused the peak floods of 25, 50 and 100 years standard return periods. The best conformed line has the form of power equation with a very high regression coefficient of R = 0.811 while the equation is as follows: Q = 1299 * T 0.275 Where Q= the computed flood [m3/s], T=Return period [years] Frequency analysis were applied to the resulted floods of Wadi Doan that drawn on a logarithmic distribution, in order to extrapolate them to other frequencies, The results give 3148.06, 3809.13 and 4609.03 m3/s for the frequencies of 25, 50 and 100 years respectively. Whereas the observed Discharge of the Wadi upon the field survey and using of Flow Master Program is 3850.2 m3/s. The resulted flood values and the best conform of the line are included in Table (1.3), the observed discharge conforms to frequency of 50 Years. Based on the values of the standard frequencies 25, 50 and 100 years which have been calculated at the outlets of the main and sub catchment areas of Wadi Doan, These magnitudes are useful for planning, designing and construction of suitable storage and diversions structures in the Wadi. Because there is insufficient information about the calculation of the design frequencies values and the discharged magnitude of such floods in the area, previous studies recommended undertaking such this research. Table 1.3 Frequency Analysis of Floods at Wadi Doan T [Years] Computed Best Conformed and Q ([m3/s) Extension of Q (m3/s) 2 1571.78 5 2022.21 10 2446.86 25 3322.3 3148.06 50 3428.5 3809.13 100 4865.3 4609.03 200 5576.89 500 7175.07 1000 8681.79 2000 10504.91 10000 16353.44 Observed Q (m3/s) 3850.2 5.4 Floodplain Delineation Based on the 50 Years storm event the boundary of the floodplain has been drawn as shown in figure 1.2 it is noticed that the 50 year frequency flood can cause erosion for the agricultural areas which located on the right side of the main stream at downstream where Al Mashhad village might not be 13 exposed for overflow of 50 years storm event. The arable lands which located on the banks of the main stream can be reclaimed and cultivated and then irrigated from the floods water. In figure 1.3 also shows the boundary of 50 years storm event where the residential places and agricultural areas located near of the stream might be exposed for 50 and 100 year flood events risks. Figure 1.2 Floodplain for 50 year flood event at the downstream of Wadi Doan Figure 1.3 Floodplain for 50 year flood event at the midstream of Wadi Doan 14 The results of this study confirm what was indicated in the previous study prepared by World Bank that the frequency of the 2008 flood in Wadi Doan is 50 year. However, this study indicate that the observed maximum discharge magnitude at outlet of Wadi Doan for the 2008 flood event is 3850 m3/s whereas the previous study indicated that the simulated maximum discharge magnitude is 568.8 m3/s so it is noticed that there is significant difference between these two values. And because the value 3850 m3/s was calculated based on the higher observed flood remarks in the wadi so it is considered more realistic than the value of 568.8 m3/s which was calculated based on simulated modeled approach. 5.5 Estimation of Runoff Volume The estimation of runoff volume ( daily, monthly, and annual) generated at the outlet of catchment area of Wadi Doan was performed using the SCS method based on Seiyun airport rainfall station, the results of this analysis is shown as the following:. Maximum annual runoff = 164,645,630 m3 Average annual runoff = 21,958,899 m3 Minimum annual runoff = 944,049 m3 It is shown that the maximum annual runoff occurred in Wadi Doan in the year 2008 due to of the heavy rainfall storms, where the average annual runoff has been calculated as an average of 23 years runoff starting from 1981 to 2002, unfortunately after the year 2002 daily rainfall data is not available except of the year 2008, the minimum annual runoff in the Wadi was in the year 1987. 5.6 Natural Reasons and Manmade Activities caused the 2008 Flood Through this research it is resulted that the October 24th 2008 floods occurred due to the natural reasons; the 2008 deep depression which caused high intensity of rainfall reached 75mm in the Wadi, large catchment area of 3170 km2 most of it as hilly bared mountains with limited covered vegetation, tributaries steep slopes, growth of the prosopis (mesquite) trees in the main streams of the Wadi and lack of protected flood structures as check dams, dikes, bunds and diversion works and Human made activities; random buildings of residential houses on the banks of the main streams and sometimes in the streams also. 5.7 Integrated Flood Management within the context of IWRM From the previous studies and the results of this research, it is noticed that Wadi Hadhramout in general and tributary Wadi Doan in particular have been yearly experiencing to flash floods that differ in their frequencies, the floods with low frequencies can be managed through the traditional diversion structures (as low height barriers, Oqum bunds, drop structures and control structures) which are existed on the tributaries of Wadi of Hadhramout. However, the floods with the high frequencies (as 2008 flood) lead to damage of the most of the traditional diversion structures in the Wadi. To manage such high frequency flash floods in the Wadi within the context of IWRM and to realize sustainable water resources for irrigating the agricultural areas and for enhancing groundwater recharge, several structural measures can be undertaken as rehabilitation of the 2008 flood damaged traditional diversion structures, construction of new suitable structures at the outlets of sub catchment areas of the Wadi Doan as incomplete low rocky dams or using oqum systems, and slow down velocity structures along the sub tributaries of the Wadi to decrease flood velocity, lead to increase infiltration rates that will enhance groundwater recharge and reduce the flash flooding hazards ( as leaching of the agricultural lands and fertile soils). Also construction storage dams for recharging groundwater but not for irrigation is possible cause the geological surface aquifer in the area is limestone, which characterized by existing fractures that lead to increase recharge processes in the area, however, selection of the locations of suitable storage dams is required of multi-disciplinary 15 team within the consultation of the area people. Furthermore in the narrow sections of the main stream of the Wadi where causing blockages can be widened to prevent flood overflow on the residential or/and agricultural areas. Nonstructural considerations can be also carried out because plants growing in the Wadi play an important role in hydrological cycle through transpiration and redistribution of moisture in Wadi-fill deposits, trees like rophyts and natural pasture can be growing in the upstream areas of the Wadi to improve affect the vertical (transpiration) and horizontal (pressure) water movement, trees could reduce soil erosion, thereby contributing to water conservation in Wadi-fill deposits. Also application of land use and agricultural services programs in the Wadi to determine the areas to be used as residential areas and to reclamation the bare lands around the main stream of the Wadi will increase the cultivated areas that absorb the runoff, and reduce the floods. In addition to practicing agricultural extensions services in the wadi will conserve fertile soils/sedimentations and enhance the vertical and horizontal agricultural extensions also contribute to reduce the floods hazards and enhance groundwater recharge from the flood water using in irrigation. Therefore the agricultural productivity in the area will be increased and accordingly that will lead to improve the farmer's livelihoods. Furthermore removing of the planting trees and all the obstacles from runoff streams and canals in the Wadi will contribute in reducing flood overflow on the agricultural lands or/and residential areas. Participatory approach shall be used to involve the floods affected people and farmers in the planning, implementation and managing stages when implementing of the above mentioned suggested solutions to reduce the floods negative effects and to realize sustainable and integrated managing of the floods in the Wadi. Managing such floods in integral approach within the context of IWRM will be more feasible and lead to reduce the magnitudes of damages and loss in the Wadi because the structural measures will be implemented based on the values of the maximum flood volumes and frequencies resulted from this research. Also the nonstructural measures will be carried out with taken in consideration a participatory approach to involve the community people in the planning, implementation and managing phases. 5.8 Socio- Economic and Environmental Situation in Wadi Doan Wadi Doan socio-economic and environmental situation is relatively similar to other Wadis aspects in Hadhramout as in climatic conditions, agricultural practices, irrigation sources, soil type, crop pattern, vegetation, community structures, …etc. Wadi Doan are characterized by arid climate; low rainfall with high evapo-transpiration, water available for irrigation comes from rainfall, seasonal spate flows running off from mountainous areas which is diverted by traditional simple structures to transport and distribute water through main and sub canals to cover wide spaces of agricultural fields, which are located along the two sides of the main stream of Wadi Doan and cultivated by cereal crops and palm trees. The resident people in Wadi Doan depend mainly on the agricultural sector as source of their income. Despite they depend on agriculture, a large number of them are considered poor, the poverty percentage in Wadi Doan is 0.25 and the number of poor 10,937. Wadi Doan was damaged of its water diversion structures, lashing of agricultural lands and crops, uprooting of palm trees and damage of residential buildings where the affected people indicated that around 100 hundred houses were completely destroyed, and 25 houses partially damaged, 25 Loss to agricultural possessions, and 150 Loss to Beekeeping properties. 5.9 Interviews and Consultations During the field study; a group discussions/consultations with the flood affected people, farmers and residents at AL Mashhad and Al Hujrain Villages have been conducted to know their points 16 o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o of view, expectations and concerns about the flood damages which occurred for their properties and what are the suitable solutions to avoid such this flood in the future. The results of discussions/consultations with around 45 interviewees can be outlined as the following:73% of the interviewees answered that the floods damaged their water diversion structures in the Wadi, lashing parts of agricultural lands and crops which are located nearby the main stream of the Wadi, uprooting of palm trees, loss of animals and bees and damaged of the roads whereas 27% of them said that they were not affected of the floods . 53 % of the affected people answered that the flood uprooted their palms, 22 % of them said that flood lashed a part of their agricultural land with crops, 13% of them said that the flood leached their bees, 12% of them said that the flood damaged their houses either partially or totally. To manage the flood water in the Wadi in sustainably manner 71% of the interviewees said the government shall rehabilitate their traditional diversion structures which are damaged, construct storage structures along the upstream tributaries to enhance groundwater recharge and diversion works to divert flood water to their agricultural areas and 29 % of them suggested that government shall support farmers with agricultural extension services and support them to reclamation other arable land that will enable them to exploit flood water for irrigation. In addition to build protection walls from the stone along the two sides of the main stream of the Wadi especially at AL Mashhad village where the agricultural lands are eroded. 76% of the interviewees said that they haven’t witnessed like the 2008 flood in their lives where 24 % of them answered that they had witnessed like this flood in their lives. All of them said that the reasons of occurrence of this flood due to of the heavy rainfall which continued for about three days, large catchment area of the Wadi within bared hilly rocks. Many of them were economically affected due to loss of their crops, which they rely on as source of their income. The interviewees said in Wadi Doan in general around 100 hundred houses were completely destroyed, and 25 houses partially damaged 25 Loss to agricultural possessions, and 150 Loss to beekeeping properties. Environmentally their agricultural soils exposed to erosion, lashing of vegetation especially palm trees as shown in the photos included in the appendix 3. Selection the types of the flood protected structures and the locations shall be identified along within the participation of the area residents. The local people ensure that they would contribute to maintain the branch canals which deliver and distribute irrigation water into the agricultural lands with ensuring that irrigation water rights would be distributed according to the traditions and customs dominated in the area. Several consultations have been conducted with the relevant sectors in Seiyun as Agriculture Office, Groundwater and Soil Conservation Project (GSCP) and National Water Resources Authority (NWRA) branches to know their points of views/concerns and suggestions concerning how to reduce and mange such these floods in the future. The results of these consultations outlined as the following:Their branches lack for specialized staff to study such these floods. They indicated that the branches budgets are limited to construct flood reduce structures. It is important to construct floods diversion and check structures along the Wadi to reduce the magnitude of the floods and also to enhance groundwater recharge especially these traditional structures have been developed and practiced for many centuries in the area. Due to Wadi Hadhramout lacks of floods related studies, they suggested that the government shall establish Flood Research Center to be responsible for the studying, prediction and managing the floods in Wadi Hadhramout and this Center shall be in linkage with various relevant sectors. They confirmed the importance of promotion of cooperation and coordination among the relevant sectors concerning flood management in the Wadi. 17 o The flood affected people and the farmers benefited from the floods for irrigation shall be involved in planning, implementation, maintenance and decision making of any action will be taken to manage floods and water resources in the Wadi. 5- CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS 6.1 Conclusions The October 24th 2008 floods occurred due to the natural reasons; the 2008 deep depression, large hilly catchment area with limited covered vegetation, tributaries steep slopes, growth of the prosopis (mesquite) trees in the main streams of the Wadi and lack of protected flood structures as check dams, dikes, bunds and diversion works and Human made activities; random buildings of residential houses on the banks of the main streams and sometimes in the streams also. The 2008 observed flood magnitude at the outlet of Wadi Doan amounted 3850.2 (m3 /s), of volume 164.65 Million m3. The banks at the outlet of the Wadi Doan eroded and widened of 4.0 m of each bank. Several agricultural lands and water diversion works were eroded and leached out by the flood. The suitable structures which can be constructed to reduce and manage the floods at the outlets of sub catchment areas of the Wadi Doan are check dams as incomplete low rocky dams or using oqum systems as well as diversion works. Plants growing in the Wadi play an important role in hydrological cycle through transpiration and redistribution of moisture in Wadi-fill deposits, trees like rophyts can be growing in the upstream areas of the Wadi to improve affect the vertical (transpiration) and horizontal (pressure) water movement, in addition, trees could reduce soil erosion, thereby contributing to water conservation in Wadi-fill deposits. Wide arable lands located on the two banks of the main stream of Wadi Doan can be reclaimed and cultivated and that will contribute to reduce floods peak flow through exploitation of the floods water for irrigation. Estimations of flood peaks based on flood hydrographs are essential to safe design of the water structures. Wadi Doan has occasional high flood potential which may at any times cause loss of human life and damage to their property and loss of livestock lives. At the same time there is no any early warning system either in Wadi Doan or Wadi Hadhramout. The weak role of community people in managing the floods through their traditional structures lead to increase the probability of floods risks on their properties. There is insufficient information about surface flows in the Wadi Hadhramout in in general and in the Wadi Doan in Particular because of lack of flow measures and rainfall stations. 6.2 Recommendations To reduce and manage the floods at Wadi Doan it is recommended to construct check dams/diversion works at the outlets of sub catchment areas of the Wadi Doan, and protection walls and terraces along the agricultural land banks at Al Mashhad Area and stopping farmers of cultivating the flood streams, activating farmers of cultivating the arable lands which located on the banks of the main stream of the Wadi with introduction of the agricultural extension services based on application of land use program. Considering the importance of flood prediction in order to reduce flood risks and also for the purpose of water resources assessment and management, it is recommended that a center of flood monitoring, prediction and early warning system shall be established. 18 It is recommended to install a flow gauging station at the outlet of Wadi Doan near AL Mashhad area at coordinates X=855.277 km , Y=1723.751km, and install rainfall station in the mid catchment of the Wadi at Al-Hujrain village at coordinates X=861.870 km, Y=1671.000 km. Activation of the community role to be involved in flood reduction and management actions through participation in planning, constructing, operating and maintenance of the different flood reduced and protected structures.as well as promotion of their traditional customs and rules through formation of WUGs/WUAs and IC in the Wadi to divert and distribute flood irrigation water based on equitable manner. Carry out more studies about flood prediction, control and management in Wadi Hadhramout in general and Wadi Doan in particular as to determine the floodplain for 100 year flood event by using HEC-RAS model. 6- REFERENCES: • Douben, N., Ratnayake, RMW., 2005, Characteristic data on river floods and flooding; facts and figures. In Floods, from Defence to Management. Proceedings of the 3rd International Symposium on Flood Defense, 25–27 May 2005, Nijmegen, the Netherlands, Alphen J. van, van Beek E, Taal M (eds). 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