Auxiliary material for
Prediction of the Arctic Oscillation in Boreal Winter by Dynamical Seasonal Forecasting
Systems
Daehyun Kang1, Myong-In Lee1, Jungho Im1, Daehyun Kim2, Hye-Mi Kim3, Hyun-Suk
Kang4, Siegfried D. Schubert5, Alberto Arribas6, and Craig MacLachlan6
1
School of Urban and Environmental Engineering, Ulsan National Institute of Science and
Technology, Ulsan, Republic of Korea
2
3
4
Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, WA, USA
School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University, NY, USA
Climate Research Division, Korea Meteorological Administration, Seoul, Republic of Korea
5
Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, MD, USA
6
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom
Geophysical Research Letters, 2014
Introduction
This auxiliary materials contain additional informations for support contents in the
manuscript. Brief descriptions of the seasonal prediction systems used in this study are given
in the table “ts01.docx”. Variations of precipitation with respect to the Arctic Oscillation are
given in the JPG file “fs01.jpg”.
1. ts01.docx (Table S1) Summary of the seasonal forecasting systems. Abbreviations and
acronyms defined as follows: Met Office Unified Model (UM), Global Forecast System
(GFS), Modular Ocean Model version 4 (MOM4), Nucleus for European Modeling of the
Ocean (NEMO), Met Office Surface Exchange Scheme (MOSES), GEOS-integrated Ocean
Data Assimilation System (GEOS-iODAS [Vernieres et al., 2012]), Climate Forecast System
Reanalysis (CFSR [Saha et al., 2010]), version 3 of the Canadian Land Surface Scheme
(CLASS3), World Ocean Database 2009 (WOD09), GFDL Ensemble Coupled Data
Assimilation (ECDA).
1.1 Column “Reforecast period”, period of reforecast conducted by each systems.
1.2 Column “Model (atm, ocn, lnd, ice)”, models used in each system.
1.3 Column “Resolution”, horizontal and vertical resolutions of atmospheric model in each
system.
1.4 Column “Initial condition”, initial condition for the forecast runs in each system.
1.5 Column “Ensemble cycle”, number of ensemble members and generated date in each
system.
2. fs01.jpg (Figure S1) DJF mean normalized precipitation (unitless) regressed onto AO index
of each forecast for 1997–2010. Precipitation anomalies are normalized by monthly mean
precipitation at each grid point. The dotted grids indicate statistical significance at the 10%
level.
References
Kirtman, B., et al. (2013), The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), 2013:
Phase-1 seasonal to interannual prediction, phase-2 toward developing intra-seasonal
prediction, Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., Accepted.
Koster, R. D., M. J. Suarez, A. Ducharne, M. Stieglitz, and P. Kumar (2000), A catchmentbased approach to modeling land surface processes in a general circulation model: 1.
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structure,
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105(D20),
24809–24822,
doi:10.1029/2000JD900327.
Saha, S., et al. (2010), The NCEP climate forecast system reanalysis, Bull. Amer. Meteorol.
Soc., 91(8), 1015–1057, doi:10.1175/2010BAMS3001.1.
Vernieres, G., M. M. Rienecker, R. Kovach, and L.C. Keppenne (2012), The GEOS-iODAS:
description and evaluation, NASA Tech. Rep. Series on Global Modeling and Data
Assimilation, NASA/TM-2012-104606, Vol. 30, 61 pp.