Carter County
Newsletter
Cooperative
Extension Service
Carter County
94 Fairground Drive
Grayson, KY 41143
(606)474-6686
Fax: (606) 474-8542
www.ca.uky.edu/ces
October 2015
Upcoming Events
October 14
Extension Volunteer Leader Forum, 10:00am-2:00pm at the Franks Education
Building, Boyd County Fairgrounds
October 19
Women for Agriculture meeting, 10:00 am at the Greenup County Extension
Office
November 3
Little Sandy Beekeepers Club meeting, 6:00 pm in the Carter County
Extension Education Building
Farmers Wonder How Low Calf Prices Will Go
Cattle producers have benefitted from high calf and feeder prices in the not too distant past. More recently,
however, cattle markets appear to be weakening, and farmers are wondering just how low the prices could go.
“I don’t think many cattlemen and women are surprised that the cattle market has softened,” said Kenny
Burdine, University of Kentucky College of Agriculture, Food and Environment livestock marketing specialist.
“But, I do think that many have been surprised at how quickly things have changed and how much lower prices
have gone. Calf markets usually reach seasonal lows in October or November.”
The U.S. beef herd continues to expand, and Burdine said that plays a part in the current markets, although not
a huge part. The growth in beef cow inventory hasn’t really had time to impact beef production yet. The cattle
market is dealing with a growing supply of fed cattle and a significant increase in slaughter weights. These factors
are working to increase beef production. At the same time, production of both pork and chicken has increased,
which is applying additional pressure.
Beef cow slaughter continues to run below last year’s levels and most indications are that
heifer retention continues. Long run calf prices typically continue dropping as the size of
the beef cow herd grows. Burdine said this is all part of a typical cattle cycle where
cattle numbers reach a sufficient level to pressure prices enough that producers
respond by scaling back, selling more heifers instead of breeding them.
Eventually liquidation causes prices to improve, producers once again expand
the
herd, and the prices begin to trend upward for a few years.
“It will be interesting to see how much impact the lower calf prices have
on the pace of expansion this fall,” Burdine said. “Even though calf prices
have softened, they remain profitable for most cow-calf producers.”
While the recent drop in prices may slow the pace of expansion, Burdine quickly pointed out that most
producers are still likely to sell calves this fall on a very strong market by historical standards.
“The largest impact from lower calf prices may be what is paid for bred heifers this fall, as those prices tend to
move together,” he said. “But the big picture message is the calf price environment is changing, and producers
need to be thinking about managing their operations in a decreasing price market over the next several years. As
we continue to grow the calf herd, we will also likely continue to see lower calf prices until the incentive to expand
is no longer there.”
Fall is a great time to take soil samples for fertility analyses.
Doing it now can allow you plenty of time to follow fertility recommendations before planting season, and
that could end up saving you time and money. When you receive the soil test results, look at the recommendations
for lime and pH, a measure of soil acidity that affects plants’ uptake of all nutrients. If the soil pH is too low, it
decreases the uptake of essential nutrients, and elements like aluminum and manganese can become toxic to
growing plant roots.
Applying limestone neutralizes soil acidity. Because agricultural lime takes about six months to break down
and react with the soil, you should apply it in the fall so it will be fully effective in the spring. Unlike fertilizer, you
really only need lime every three to five years, depending on your crop rotation and nitrogen fertilizer history. The
only way to determine if your fields will need lime next year is by soil testing this fall.
All the recommended fertilizers, except nitrogen, also can be applied in the fall. Often a fall application will
save you considerable money, because fertilizer prices generally are cheaper in the fall as a result of lower
demand. In addition to lower fertilizer prices, it’s easier to get the spreader truck in the field during the fall because
the soil is usually drier.
If you don‘t soil test, you can only guess at the fertility needs of your fields, and far too often assumptions are
wrong. Guessing at the amount of fertilizer to apply often results in applying more than the recommended rate.
Some producers want to be sure there’s plenty of fertilizer available in case they have a bumper crop next season.
However, studies have shown that crops need the same amount of fertilizer in a good year as in a poor year.
2
Timely Tips for September
Spring-Calving Cows
● Begin evaluating heifer calves for herd replacements – or culling. Each time you put them through the chute
you can evaluate them for several traits, including their disposition.
● When planning the preweaning working, consult with your veterinarian for advice on animal health products
and procedures. Some procedures which can be done now are pregnancy checking cows (which will allow
time to make culling decisions prior to weaning time). The remainder of the work, like booster shots, can be
done at weaning time.
● Limited creep feeding can prepare calves for the weaning process since they can become accustomed to eating
dry feed. This will especially benefit those calves which you are going to keep for a short postweaning period
– like the CPH-45 program. It’s time to start planning the marketing of this year’s calf crop.
● Stresses associated with weaning can be minimized by spreading-out other activities commonly associated with
weaning – like vaccinations, deworming and, perhaps, castration and dehorning (which should have already
been done!). Therefore, this month is a good time to do a “preweaning” working of cows and calves.
Fall-Calving Cows
● Watch for those calves which may come early and be prepared to care for them.
● Fall-calving should start this month. Get your eartags ready. Cows should be moved to a clean, accessible
pasture and be watched closely. Tag calves soon after they are born and record dam ID and calf birthdate, etc.
Castration is less stressful when performed on young animals and calves which are intended for feeders can be
implanted now, too.
● Move cows to best quality fall pasture after calving. Stockpiled fescue should be available to these cows in
November-December to meet their nutritional needs for milking and rebreeding.
● Start planning now for the breeding season. If using AI, order supplies, plan matings and order semen now.
Stockers
● Calves to be backgrounded through the winter can be purchased soon. A good source is Kentucky
preconditioned (CPH-45) calves which are immunized and have been preweaned and “boostered”.
● Plan your receiving program. Weanling calves undergo a great deal of stress associated with weaning, hauling,
marketing, and wide fluctuations in environmental temperature at this time of year. Plan a program which
avoids stale cattle, get calves consuming water and high quality feed rapidly. Guard against respiratory
diseases and other health problems.
General
●
Consider nitrogen application to fescue pastures for stockpiling early this month and allow them to grow and
accumulate until November, or when other sources of grazing have been used up - so that grazing may be
extended and feeding can be delayed. To make best use of this pasture, put fall calvers or thin spring-calvers
on this pasture and strip graze. Consider seeding of winter animals in pastures which were damaged by
drought.
● Plan the winter feeding program. Take forage samples of hay which you will feed this winter. Request protein
and TDN analysis so that supplemental feed needs may be estimated. Don’t wait until you run out of feed in
February to purchase extra feed. Plan to minimize hay storage and feeding losses because feed is too
expensive to waste.
● Don’t graze sorghum or sudan pastures between the first frost and a definite killing frost because of the danger
of prussic acid poisoning. Johnsongrass in stalk fields can also be a problem after a light frost. Grazing can
resume after the sorghum-type grasses have undergone a killing frost and dried up.
3
USDA’s September Crop Production and WASDE Give Futures Market New Information.
How have Corn and Soybean Prices Reacted?
The USDA Crop Production and WASDE/World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates reports
released on September 11, 2015 provided the futures market an updated yield and production forecast as well as
projected ending stocks for the 2015-16 marketing-year. Analysts and farmers were expecting USDA to make
significant yield adjustments from the August Crop Production report because of the wet weather that plagued the
Eastern Corn Belt plus Missouri this summer.
USDA did reduce the projected corn yield to 167.5 bu./acre which is 1.3 bu./acre less than the August
forecast. If realized, this would be the second largest yield on record. The 2015 corn crop is projected at 13.585
billion bushels which is 101 million bushels smaller than the August forecast. If realized, the 2015 corn crop would
be 631 million bushels smaller than the 2014 crop but would still be the third largest crop in history.
USDA continued to surprise analysts and farmers by increasing the projected soybean yield to 47.1 bu/ acre
from the August estimate of 46.9 bu/acre. USDA is currently forecasting the U.S. soybean crop to be 3.935 billion
bushels which would be the second largest crop in history record, if realized. While not a record, the 2015 soybean
crop would only be 34 million bushels smaller than last year’s crop.
The September WASDE continues to forecast that the corn and soybean markets are struggling with
bearish fundamentals. USDA is currently projecting 2015-16 corn ending-stocks at 1.592 billion which would be
140 million bushels lower than in 2014-15. Projected ending-stocks of 1.592 billion bushels can be thought of as
about a 42 day supply of corn on hand on September 1, 2016. While ending-stocks are trimmed from 2014-15, the
U.S. currently has an adequate supply of corn. The 2015-16 projected U.S. marketing-year average (MYA) price at
$3.75 is a $0.07/bu. increase from the previous marketing-year.
For soybeans, USDA is projecting 2015-16 ending-stocks of 450 million bushels which, if realized, is an
increase in stocks by 240 million bushels. Ending-stocks of 450 million bushels can be thought of as a 44 day of
soybeans in grain bins on September 1, 2016. As soybean stocks increase, the projected 2015-16 US MYA price of
$9.15/bushel would be $0.91/bushel lower than the previous year’s price.
The market is already looking forward to the October Crop Production report as it will incorporate the
USDA-FSA certified acreage information to better estimate the amount of acres that were prevented from planting
this year. The question of the amount of prevented planted acres is something the market wrestles with in years
when there is a wet spring and planting is extended beyond the optimal agronomic planting window. As harvest
gets underway, USDA will include actual harvested yield data which greatly improves the production estimates.
17th Annual East Kentucky Replacement Bred Heifer Sale Results
109 head sold for an average of $2,213.76 per head
The highest sold were a pair of Angus X heifers for $3,500.00 each
The lowest sold was an Angus X heifer for $1,200.00
9 head were Registered Angus – averaged $2,577.78 per head
22 head were Angus – averaged $2,450.00 per head
71 head were Angus X – averaged $2,105.63 per head
2 head were Simmental X – averaged $2,400.00 per head
2 head were Hereford X – averaged $2,200.00 per head
2 head were Charolais X – averaged $1,875.00 per head
1 head was Angus-Lim X – sold for $1,750.00
67 head were AI bred (due early February) – averaged $2,305.97 per head
42 head were Natural bred – averaged $2,066.00 per head
29 head (due early March) – averaged $2,100.00 per head
6 head (due mid-March) – averaged $1,875.00 per head
7 head (due late March) – averaged $2,092.85 per head
4
Fall Fire Season Runs Through December 15
The fall fire season in Kentucky began October 1st and continues through
December 15th. The Kentucky Division of Forestry has an arson hotline so citizens
can call to report arson. Information regarding arson or suspected arsonists should be
reported by calling the Target Arson Hotline at 1-800-27-ARSON.
Kentucky Division of Forestry Accepting Orders for Tree Seedlings
The Kentucky Division of Forestry is accepting tree seedling orders now. The tree seedlings will
be available for shipping from January through April; by placing your order now, you can select from
more than 50 species of trees including the new additions of staghorn and smooth sumac, sugar maple
and hazel alder. These bare-root seedlings can be used by anyone interested in reforestation, wildlife
habitat development, erosion control, windbreaks, and numerous other conservation projects. Foresters
from the Kentucky Division of Forestry are available to help match the right tree species to your
situation. To order your trees or request assistance, call or stop by a regional Kentucky Division of
Forestry office. To find what office covers your county, call 1-800-866-0555
A Closer Examination of the Domestic Cigarette Market:
Implications for U.S. Burley Demand
The current world burley surplus combined with a strengthening U.S. dollar has played havoc on the
international demand for U.S. burley. What about the domestic market? Changes in burley demand in the U.S.
mirrors changes in domestic cigarette consumption/production as virtually very little burley is used to manufacture
other tobacco products. U.S. cigarette sales have plummeted over the years in response to health concerns, taxes,
smoking regulations/restrictions, and more recently, the emerging e-cigarette vaping market has also become a
very modest, but yet contributing factor to the overall decline.
Over the past 20 years, U.S. cigarette consumption has plummeted 52% while U.S. cigarette production has
fallen by 63%. (Note: production has declined greater than consumption with the shifting of cigarette
manufacturing overseas practically wiping out U.S. cigarette exports - off 93% since its peak in 1996). Obviously
U.S. cigarette manufacturer's demand for U.S. (and foreign) burley are impacted by these significant declines in
the domestic cigarette market. But has imported burley declined at the same rate as U.S. produced-burley for the
domestic market during this time frame? To get a better gauge of these trends one should look at a multiyear
period instead of comparing single years when supply factors (i.e., the availability of U.S. or foreign burley) could
radically alter the analysis.
5
Brown Marmorated Stink Bug on the Move
While monitoring vegetable and soybean fields in the Lexington area I have noticed that the number of
brown marmorated stink bug (BMSB) adults has dropped off as the numbers of nymphs on these crops has
remained constant. Last year, BMSB began to gather on the sides of homes the first week in September. This
makes me believe that BMSB is changing its behavior from plant feeding to begin searching for overwintering
sites, possibly your home. I did spot 15 BMSB on the side of my house on Saturday. So, over the next several
weeks we should expect BMSB to gather on buildings in search of suitable overwintering sites. Once inside
buildings they will remain active until mid-spring.
In addition to BMSB, there are several other insect invaders that
enter buildings, including boxelder bug, multicolor Asian lady
beetle, cluster flies, and western conifer seed bug. But BMSB has
the potential to gather in larger numbers in homes than these other
pests. Besides just being a nuisance, the nearly ¾-inch BMSB
releases a cilantro-like odor when disturbed and may feed on
houseplants during winter months.
Managing Household Invaders
With BMSB, as with other household invaders, the best strategy is prevention: keep them out of your
home. Buildings that have had previous problems may be more likely to have future problems. Seal and screen
(1/6-inch mesh screen or finer; see Figure 2) entry points to the attics, around doors and windows, and to
basements and crawl spaces to limit numbers that enter. Topping chimneys with screens or caps can also help. Dr.
Mike Potter lists a number of steps that can be taken to pest proof your home in How to Pest-proof Your Home
(Entfact 641).
Indoors during the winter, BMSB try to congregate in various places inside structures. This can be in
chimneys, closets, window air conditioning units, attics, behind books on a shelf, etc. The best way to remove
them once they gain entry is with a vacuum. A knee-high stocking can be used in the suction tube of the vacuum to
reduce the number of bags needed. The stink bugs can be disposed of into soapy water. Various types of light
baited/funnel traps and soapy water traps can be used to remove them from dark areas in a home.
Figure 2. A lab study at UK found ¼-inch screen to be too
wide to exclude BMSB. (Photo: Ric Bessin, UK)
6
UK Insecticide Barrier Study
Last fall, Mike Potter and I conducted an insecticide barrier study with three pyrethroid insecticides
available to pest control operators. Bricks were treated with a pyrethroid or water (control) and allowed to air dry
for 24 hours prior to the study. Stink bugs were confined under petri dish lids for either 5 minutes or 24 hours of
exposure (Figure 3).
Figure 3. Brown marmorated stink bugs (BMSB) were confined
under a petri dish lid on treated bricks for either 5 minutes or 24
hours. (Photo: Ric Bessin)
After 24 hours BMSB mortality was assessed. With 24-hour exposure on a treated brick surface there was
100 percent mortality, and a 5 minute exposure resulted in over 60 percent control with each of the pyrethroid
insecticides. The new labeling with pyrethroid barrier sprays is more restrictive to prevent contamination of runoff
water, but treatment of cracks and crevices (with a narrow band of spray) and under eaves that are protected from
the rain, is still possible. Read and follow all label restrictions carefully.
By Ric Bessin and Mike Potter, Extension Entomologists
Sincerely,
Myron Evans, County Extension Agent for Ag/Natural Resources
7
8
Cooperative Extension Service
University of Kentucky
Carter County
94 Fairground Drive
Grayson, KY 41143
NONPROFIT ORG
US POSTAGE PAID
Grayson, KY
PERMIT 115
RETURN SERVICE REQUESTED
9
October
Newsletter
10